United States Antimony Corp. shares are surging in the early U.S. cash session as geopolitical risk around U.S.-China relations is set to deteriorate, with Beijing’s condemnation of the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran raising the likelihood that President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing could be a bust.

The deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations was evident overnight, with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi calling for an immediate ceasefire in Trump’s Operation Epic Fury against Iran, which risks wider regional conflict.

Wang told Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on a phone call that the “blatant killing of a sovereign leader” and the incitement of regime change were “unacceptable.” This phone call was based on reporting from China’s state-run Xinhua news agency.

The killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro have created growing uncertainty around President Trump’s three-day trip to China later this month.

“I worry the U.S. side might use Iran, if it’s going poorly, to delay the trip,” a foreign business executive tracking meeting preparations told CNBC.

The executive added, “I think the risk [of the trip falling apart] is on the U.S. side more than the Chinese side.”

The likely deterioration in Sino-U.S. relations increases the risk of a new round of Chinese restrictions on critical-mineral and rare-earth exports targeting the U.S.

Let’s not forget that Trump has effectively shuttered cheap oil flows from Venezuela and Iran to China (read here). Beijing is infuriated.

Attention has shifted to UAMY’s strategic value as North America’s only operator of antimony smelting capacity. This creates a unique position for the company if imports from Asia are curbed.  

UAMY +8% https://t.co/6fegdDj996

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 2, 2026

Shares are up more than 13% in the U.S. cash session.

Another potential catalyst (market-based): 

Related:

• China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver

• US Antimony Strengthens Domestic Supply Chain With Montana Mill Purchase

Beyond the risk of rare earth metals becoming a major focal point between Beijing and Washington (again), UAMY may also be rising, as antimony is a critical rare earth used in military production, especially in ammunition and other defense-related materials, as the sheer amount of air-delivered munitions used by U.S. and Israeli forces only suggests weapons production in the U.S. will have to ramp.

Read the report here. 

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro said federal authorities have frozen and seized more than $580 million in cryptocurrency tied to Southeast Asian scam networks, marking a major escalation in the government’s campaign against cross-border crypto fraud.

The funds were restrained through the Justice Department’s Scam Center Strike Force, a task force formed in November to target cryptocurrency investment and confidence schemes linked to Chinese transnational criminal organizations. 

Officials said the groups use social media platforms and text messaging to target U.S. victims and siphon billions of dollars each year. Recent estimates place annual losses to Americans near $10 billion.

“In only three months, we have made significant progress, freezing, seizing, and forfeiting cryptocurrency worth more than $578 million from these criminals,” Pirro said in a statement. She said her office will seek forfeiture through the courts and aims to return funds to victims.

Authorities describe the schemes as “pig butchering” operations, in which fraudsters build relationships with victims before steering them into fraudulent crypto investments. Victims are persuaded to purchase legitimate digital assets and then transfer them to counterfeit trading platforms controlled by the scam networks.

The operations often run out of secured compounds in parts of Southeast Asia, including Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. U.S. officials said some workers inside the compounds are trafficking victims who are forced to carry out scams under threat of violence. In certain areas, revenue generated from scam activity accounts for a large share of local economic output.

The Strike Force is focused on identifying senior figures within the criminal networks, including organizers and money launderers who move proceeds through blockchain transactions and shell accounts. Investigators are tracing funds across exchanges and wallets to disrupt cash-out points and freeze assets before they are dispersed.

The initiative brings together the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia and several Justice Department divisions, along with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the U.S. Secret Service, and the Internal Revenue Service’s Criminal Investigation unit. U.S. Attorney’s Offices in Rhode Island and the Western District of Washington are also participating.

The Justice Department said the Strike Force will continue targeting infrastructure, financial channels, and leadership structures tied to the fraud networks.

Crypto crime hit $154 Billion last year

Data from Chainalysis shows illicit crypto addresses received at least $154 billion in 2025, a 162% year-over-year increase, with sanctioned entities driving much of the surge. Nation-states including Russia, Iran, and North Korea played an outsized role, leveraging blockchain infrastructure for sanctions evasion, money laundering, and large-scale thefts.

Stablecoins accounted for 84% of illicit transaction volume, the report said. 

The report also highlights the expansion of Chinese money laundering networks offering “laundering-as-a-service” and other full-stack illicit infrastructure. Although illicit activity still represents less than 1% of total crypto volume, the scale and geopolitical dimension of the activity pose rising risks for regulators, law enforcement, and national security.

Summary: President Trump opened Monday’s Medal of Honor ceremony in the White House East Wing with a carefully prepared, somewhat brief statement on Operation Epic Fury. Speaking deliberatively – but not quite with the level of his typically confident and energetic tone and demeanor – he spoke initially and broadly on the rationale for ordering the attack on Iran, which is now in day three and has taken at least four American troop lives at this point. Trump vowed to “crush” the “Iranian threat posed to the US,” claiming that “we will easily prevail”. He declared that already US forces have knocked out ten ships, and that the plan is to also ensure the Iranians “can’t fund armies beyond borders”. But high on the minds of Congressional leaders and the American public is: what’s next? Trump gave a timeline of a “projected four to five weeks” for war with Iran, “but we can go longer” and this will involve “whatever it takes.” He vowed to continue the mission with “unyielding resolve” – even amid reports that US Gulf allies UAE and Qatar are now lobbying allies to persuade Trump to end the Iran war soon (as the Gulf continues to feel the impact of Iran’s retaliatory strikes). The President just committed the nation to another potentially open-ended war in the Middle East.

Trump on Iran operations: “We are already substantially ahead of our time projections… Whatever it takes… I don’t get bored. There is nothing boring about this. If I got bored, I wouldn’t be standing here.” pic.twitter.com/aTYMB5FkY4

— Global Monitor (@globalmonito) March 2, 2026

* * *

Update(1015ET): The Pentagon has announced it has gained complete ‘local air superiority’ over Iran, and also that Israel continues working with the US to eliminate ‘common threats’. This came soon on the heels of the shocking news of three US F-15s downed over Kuwait. Iran is claiming to have shot down at least one US jet, while the US and Kuwait counter-claim that it was actually Kuwaiti ‘friendly fire’. Some six total US airmen parachuted down safely into Kuwaiti territory.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has meanwhile stated that at this point approximately 600 Iranian infrastructure sites have been dismantled in Iran using 2,500 munitions. These sites included “over 20 targets belonging to Iranian military leaders,” the IDF said. But as the conflict expands into Lebanon, and as many Gulf countries continue witnessing inbound Iranian missiles and drones, NATO command has distanced itself from the conflict, with Secretary General Mark Rutte stating Monday that the alliance “will not participate” in the joint US-Israeli mission. The Joint Chiefs say that more American service members are being added to the operation.

THE BIG WAR GAMBLE… or, Rabobank’s take paraphrased down to a single key sentence:

The US strike on Iran is Trump’s high-risk gamble to choke China’s energy lifeline, flip Tehran to allied control, open the India-Middle East-Europe corridor, weaken Russia, and lock in 21st-century US hegemony—delivering quick regime change and falling oil prices that cement Trumpism as a historic win, OR sparking Middle East chaos and global blowback that hands Beijing the advantage in a new age of empires.

In the meantime, War Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared on the defensive in a Pentagon briefing early Monday. He confirmed there are as yet no US boots on the ground, while also seeking to assure the American public this is not an “endless war”. And yet, reporters were still left frustrated by lack of a clear timeline, or laying out of specific objectives which must be accomplished before Operation Epic Fury is declared over. There was a moment where Hegseth erupted at a reporter’s question, revealing that tensions are high at the Pentagon:

Pete Hegseth declines to give a clear timeline for Trump and Israel’s war with Iran:

“Did you not hear my remarks? We are ensuring the mission is getting accomplished… We would never in front of a press pool, lay out how long that may take.” pic.twitter.com/BuWJhDTDbU

— The American Conservative (@amconmag) March 2, 2026

But worrisomely for the prospect of escalation, NBC observes that Hegseth did not rule out boots on the ground:

Asked whether U.S. boots are on the ground, Hegseth said no, but said he would not lay out what the U.S. could do as the operation continues.

Hegseth said that Trump ensures that the country’s enemies know that the U.S. will go as far as it needs to in order to advance the U.S.’ interests.

Time will tell if this firm pledge becomes a reality or not:

 U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Monday that military operations against Iran would not lead to an “endless war” and that the aim was to destroy Tehran’s missiles, Navy and other security infrastructure.

“We’re hitting them surgically, overwhelmingly and unapologetically,” Hegseth said during a press conference at the Pentagon.

Trump previously told The Daily Mail he expects the operation could take up to four weeks. One month of intense war will seem like a lifetime, given how fast events at the ‘blowback’ have been coming over the last some 48 to 72 hours. And he’s just told CNN: “We are about to hit them hard, the operation is progressing very well, the big wave hasn’t happened yet and it will come soon.”

Blowback effects mounting:

🚨BREAKING: An Iranian missile has struck a luxury skyscraper in Bahrain reports suggest that this skyscraper is housing senior U.S. military command personnel.

Bahrain officials have not yet released any statements. pic.twitter.com/CQIQ2Yo7CC

— The British Patriot (@TheBritLad) March 2, 2026

Hegseth and Gen. Caine offered condolences to families of the fallen: “I want to express my deep condolences and the condolences of the joint force to the Department of War personnel killed and wounded in action,” Caine said, calling the fallen soldiers heroes who “represent the best of our nation has to offer. They’re true examples of what selfless service means.”.

* * *

It is only day three of ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and Americans are waking up to shocking images of US fighter jets going down over Kuwait, and the incredibly rare scene of pilots parachuting down with a look of disbelief and confusion…

Kuwait’s defense ministry says “several” US military aircraft have crashed https://t.co/Tvaq4zFrEY pic.twitter.com/SLaSYWwZep

— CNN (@CNN) March 2, 2026

US CENTCOM has confirmed, following a Kuwaiti government statement, “At 11:03 p.m. ET, March 1, three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles flying in support of Operation Epic Fury went down over Kuwait due to an apparent friendly fire incident.”

That’s three US warplanes in apparently one incident. How does that happen? Of course, given the already thick fog of war and propaganda narratives fast going back and forth, it’s entirely possible they could have been shot down by Iranian defenses or jets from just across the border. Iran is saying it has shot down at least one US F-15 fighter jet:

IRAN SAYS IT SHOT DOWN US F-15 FIGHTER JET: TASNIM

Here’s the fuller CENTCOM narrative:

CENTCOM: “During active combat—that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones — the U.S. Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses. All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation.”

Given there’s now an official Pentagon casualty/death count, and given the fact that the Gulf allies and especially Israel are getting hit hard by Iran’s significant ballistic missile arsenal, President Trump himself may now be (only too late) realize he just bit off more than he can chew in ordering this ultra-risky regime change operation.

There’s as yet no clear endgame. Trump has talked about reaching objectives – without defining them, in something eerily (and predictably!) familiar with the 2003 Iraq war under Bush and the Neocons. Recall too that Trump just told The Atlantic magazine on Sunday morning that Tehran wanted to speak to him while feeling the pressure of the bombs falling, and that he was willing to do so. “They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,” he said from his residence in Florida.

US military confirms “several” U.S. fighter jets have crashed over Kuwait, no proper explanations offered. Trump warned that US casualties could get “quite a bit higher.”https://t.co/SIlLArz8RN pic.twitter.com/1VpfpaY5mQ

— tim anderson (@timand2037) March 2, 2026

But soon after it became clear that’s not happening – the Iranian genie is out of the bottle …or we could say Pandora’s Box Persian-style, which could make even Iraq look like a cakewalk. Adding insult to injury is that this is everything Trump and his team campaigned against.

Trump has already pivoted to saying the conflict looks to take up to four weeks (will it take years as Iraq did? nobody knows). Below is the man that was tapped by the slain Ayatollah Khamenei to run the day to day in his stead:

And to that, the Pentagon responds… also with Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine on Monday morning declaring that the US has local air superiority in Iran.

Iran continues to maliciously launch ballistic missiles, indiscriminately targeting military and civilian locations throughout the region. U.S. forces remain on the hunt to eliminate this threat. As the President has said, our resolve has never been stronger. pic.twitter.com/SDdvaL38yp

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 2, 2026

Israel is taking significant casualties, especially after Sunday’s direct large Iranian warhead impact on a town near Jerusalem which left at least 9 dead and dozens wounded. Hezbollah has entered the war and in response Israel is once again pounding southern Lebanon and Beirut. Major international airports in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE, have bit hit by missiles and drones – also as US bases across the Gulf continue to be targeted. Even British-US bases on Cyprus have come under drone attack.

Gulf nations are seeing casualties, and even other European bases in the region have come under fire. American bases in northern Iraq have also been heavily targeted in Iran’s retaliation waves. These have been sustained, particularly on Israel. One question which we’ve been covering remains: which side will have the missile and firepower arsenal to outlast the other? …as the costs will soon enter the billions. Most importantly, as of Monday morning CENTCOM has newly confirmed four American troops killed in the operation.

Needless to say, if Trump’s thinking really approached this as if it was ‘one and done’ Venezuela, and that after some quick salvo a country of 90 million with a well-armed and experienced military would immediately shout ‘uncle!’ – he’s probably already realizing the situation is spiraling out of control far beyond his expectation. But he was clearly and loudly warned. Yet, it’s also true that Iranian top leadership is fast being decimated – with over 40 top officers reportedly killed. But Iran is able to fill these ranks fast, most likely.

In Washington right now, the biggest story centers on headlines of “paranoia” and deep “anxiety” at the Pentagon in in national security council ranks:

Pentagon officials are worried about Donald Trump’s Iran strikes spiraling out of control if they stick to his timeline.

While the president boasts that the strikes could continue for several more weeks, military leaders are sounding the alarm behind the scenes about U.S. air defense stockpiles running out if the fighting goes on that long. “The mood here is intense and paranoid,” one insider told The Washington Post.

It seems the Pentagon is already throwing the White House and Trump under the bus, or is at least doing so through ‘anonymous’ quotes given to WaPo, NYT, CNN and others:

Pentagon briefers acknowledged to congressional staff in a briefing Sunday that Iran was not planning to strike US forces or bases in the Middle East unless Israel attacked Iran first, undercutting the administration’s argument Saturday that Tehran was planning to potentially strike the US preemptively and posed an imminent threat, according to multiple people who attended the briefing.

Senior administration officials told reporters Saturday that the US chose to attack Iran because it had received indications the regime was planning to launch missile attacks against US bases in the region preemptively and create a mass casualty situation. CNN reported Saturday that sources said there was no intelligence to support the administration’s claim.

And after all, Iran’s economy was already brought to its knees through years of crippling sanctions, and the Iranians appeared to come hat in hand to the negotiating table in Geneva.

⚡️Carpet bombing in Tehran pic.twitter.com/PKqW3jUhK8

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 2, 2026

To recount the warning late last month issued by no less than the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine – the issues already facing American forces were clearly outlined and predicted. According to out prior paraphrase and outline of what’s being freshly reported by WSJ:

1) Caine warned that the war plans under consideration carry a high risk of significant American and allied casualties.

2) He cautioned that a multi-day campaign would exhaust air-defense munitions and other limited-supply items, which are critical for protecting regional partners like Israel if Iran retaliates.

3) An intensive operation against Iran could deplete stockpiles to a level that would complicate U.S. readiness for a potential future conflict with China.

4) He described the potential campaign as one that could “stretch the military thin” and leave forces “overtaxed”.

5) Caine’s gave “high likelihood of success” reassurances before the January 2026 mission to apprehend Nicolas Maduro, he has been unable to provide similar guarantees regarding a large-scale strike on Iran.

⚡️🇮🇷🇮🇱JUST IN:

Clear footage showing hypersonic missile from Iran striking a target in Gush Dan and making massive impact in central Israel [Sound on]. pic.twitter.com/wrxBvfvhUx

— Suppressed News. (@SuppressedNws) June 15, 2025

Below is a review of the mounting casualties across the region from Operation Epic Fury. The US has so far issued an official count of four US troops killed and five others seriously wounded. That could already be significantly higher, unfortunately – along with the below numbers which are expected to climb:

• Iran: At least 555 people have died since joint US-Israeli strikes began, according to the Red Crescent Society. Iranian state media reported that 168 students were killed in an airstrike on a girls’ elementary school, with three more students killed in separate attacks in Tehran and northern Iran. China’s foreign ministry confirmed that one Chinese national was also killed.

• Lebanon: Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut have killed at least 31 people, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health said.

• Israel: At least 10 people have been killed and more than 200 wounded since Israel launched operations against Iran, according to Magen David Adom. Nine of the dead were in Beit Shemesh, where a missile struck a bomb shelter.

• Iraq: A US-Israeli strike hit a headquarters of Iraq’s Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces, killing four members, the group’s Media Directorate said.

• United Arab Emirates: Iran’s retaliatory strikes killed three people in the UAE, the defense ministry said. The victims—nationals of Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh—were killed after Iranian drones penetrated the country’s air defenses.

• Kuwait: Three US service members were killed in a suspected drone attack early Sunday, according to sources familiar with the incident. Separately, Kuwait’s health ministry reported one fatality from Iranian strikes.

• Bahrain: One person died after debris from an intercepted missile ignited a fire aboard a “foreign vessel” in Salman Industrial City, according to Bahraini state media.

War spreads to Israel-Hezbollah theatre in Lebanon:

Lebanon is now being attacked by Israel, and Hezbolllah appears to have joined the fight. This war is quickly spreading, and the assumption of escalation control is a dangerous delusion pic.twitter.com/1T54LJdRsc

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) March 2, 2026

To again cite, Glenn Greenwald, who summarized best how we got where we are: “For decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and American neoconservatives have dreamed of only one foreign policy goal: having the United States fight a regime-change war against Iran. With the Oval Office occupied by Donald Trump — who campaigned for a full decade on a vow to end regime-change wars and vanquish neoconservatism — their goal has finally been realized.”

On the question of grand strategy and the White House’s likely long term global geopolitical chessboard vision, we have also featured that The Iran Question Is All About China.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Years ago, Rep. Ted Lieu (D., Cal.) demanded that “Facebook should do more internally to regulate fake news and point out fake news.”

This week, he finally made his case for such private censorship. Lieu went full conspiracy theorist during a congressional hearing this week, leaving many gobsmacked. Lieu’s rave about the alleged murder of a child made the National Inquirer look like the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

In an age of rage, Lieu knows that you must go louder and bigger to be heard above the mob. Facts are no passé and Lieu is known for sensational claims like claiming that “Trump is broke.”

At a House Judiciary Committee hearing on the Epstein files, Lieu won the race to the bottom with his colleagues in making outrageous, unsupported claims. It was a moment reminiscent of the recent face-planting by Rep. Ro Khanna (D., Cal.) in disclosing the names of powerful men shielded by the Administration in the scandal. (Four had no connection to Epstein).

He suggested that Trump not only abused a minor, but that she was later bumped off to keep her from speaking. What Lieu does not inform the public is that his blockbuster disclosure was based on the unverified account of an anonymous man, who worked as a limo driver in 1995.

The bizarre account claimed the driver picked up Trump and overheard him on the phone with someone called “Jeffrey” and made references to “abusing some girl.” The driver said that he wanted to pull over and “hurt him”.

Driver Dan Ferree has self-identified as the source referenced by Lieu.

Ferree reportedly has posted hundreds of politically anti-Trump and extreme memes to his Facebook account, including a recent image of Trump in what appears to be a casket. He has also reportedly claimed that he was stalked by Trump associates.

In a defamation case, Ferree would be difficult to pass off as a credible source for a publication. The use of such sources is a familiar tactic in Washington. During the Chandra Levy scandal, politicians and pundits piled on Rep. Gary Condit (D., Cal.) as the presumptive murderer of the congressional intern. The source cited by Vanity Fair’s Dominick Dunne turned out to be a “horse whisperer” in Dubai who said that he had heard Condit arranged for her murder. (Condit was later cleared in the case).

Ferree is only marginally better than a horse whisperer as a source of Lieu. Ferree told the FBI that he met a young girl who told him she had been raped by Trump and Epstein at a “fancy hotel.” He claimed that the young girl was later found with her head “blown off.” He said that, while the officers at the scene thought it was murder, the coroner later ruled it a suicide. There was no proof of such a case.

It appears that Lieu knew or suspected that the source of the allegation was unhinged or unreliable because he later re-posted only two of the three pages of the statement to the FBI. The third page included other bizarre claims about the Oklahoma City Bombing and a drunk Hillary Clinton.

Lieu decided it was best to withhold the third page and the details of a raving, drunken Hillary Clinton and an effort to frame an innocent man for the Oklahoma bombing. It seems that he was not aggrieved that the FBI did not investigate that part of Ferree’s allegations.

Nevertheless, at an earlier event, Lieu declared:

“Why are Republicans so interested in Bill and Hillary Clinton? It’s because they’re trying to distract from the fact that Donald Trump is in the Epstein files thousands and thousands of times. In those files, there’s highly disturbing allegations of Donald Trump raping children, of Donald Trump threatening to kill children.”

What is striking is how so many politicians supporting the crackdown on disinformation on the right are purveyors of such disinformation. From the Russian conspiracy hoax to the flogging of migrants by Border agents, members and the media have regularly spread false accounts with impunity. It is not considered disinformation if it appears on BlueSky or MS NOW.

The intentional omission of the third page of the allegation puts this disinformation effort in a particularly menacing light. This was not some hair-triggered posting that failed to research the underlying story. This was a knowing effort to later re-post the sensational allegation while removing a third of the document that undermined the credibility of the source.

Indeed, while questioning why the FBI (including during the Biden Administration) failed to pursue this allegation, Lieu left out the part indicating that the source was utterly unreliable.

As an impeachment manager, Lieu condemned Trump over his “exhortations [and] the President’s sustained disinformation. We’ve seen a president stoking fears amidst these crises.” He demanded that Trump be removed from office based on that allegation of disinformation and inflammatory rhetoric.

Lieu knew that in our post-truth political environment, it really does not matter if an allegation is untrue. He is feeding a rage addiction among voters who ache for a steady stream of such outrageous claims. He is part of a trend that I have called the “new Jacobins” in Rage and the Republic, establishment figures who are pandering to the mob in seeking to ride the wave of rage back into power.

It was not long ago that Democrats and the media tore into members suggesting that the Clintons were involved in the suicide of key aide Vince Foster. The difference is that there was an actual body in that base. Lieu shows little concern over spreading a conspiracy theory based on an unestablished death raised by a driver who coupled his allegations with other wild claims about Hillary Clinton and the Oklahoma bombing.

It has long been accepted that “politics ain’t beanbag,” but Lieu shows that it is now simply bonkers.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the New York Times bestselling “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

By Rabobank

The New Age Of Empires

The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday morning, and not a ‘one-and-done’ strike aimed at more negotiations. Rather, it’s an operation to destroy Iran’s nuclear program remnants, its ballistic missile production and stockpiles, its navy, and to back *regime change*.

Both the U.S. and Israel are calling on the Iranian people to rise up as they physically remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC) and Basij religious police. That said, it’s up to the Iranians and them alone.

Iran has already been decapitated, politically: Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead, as is much of the government and IRGC leadership – though new leaders are already emerging. The Islamic Republic has been smashed militarily: Israel and the U.S. have near total control of its skies to strike targets at will. 

Nobody is stepping in to help Iran militarily now that the shooting has started. Once again, BRICS as an anti-US force is shown to have no mortars supporting it.

Needless to say, it is risk-off in markets this morning. The dollar is surging, high-beta currencies are offered, spot gold is up ~2%, bond yields are tumbling, US equity futures are pointing toward losses of 1% or more, and Brent crude has surged by ~9.2% to $79.60/bbl (and rising). ICE gasoil prices are up ~13% and fertilizer flows are likely to be disrupted both directly and through natural gas’s role as a feedstock in production. While yields are falling on risk-off sentiment this morning, all of the above is inflationary, just as it was when Russia invaded Ukraine.

As we have also warned – a fanatical regime fearing itself on the way out tries to burn everything down as it goes. Iranian drones have killed three US soldiers in Jordan and its missiles have hit Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States despite none having allowed the U.S. to use their territory to attack (even if it appears the Saudis were secretly lobbying for it). A number of Gulf states have now said that they reserve the right to act in self defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, raising the prospect of reciprocal strikes. Iran’s actions are effectively locking the Gulf states tighter into the US alliance.

Europe has been an irrelevance in these events so far. Ursula von der Leyen was lampooned online after saying on Saturday that the EU will get around to holding a meeting about the war on Monday, while the British government – fresh off a devastating byelection defeat characterised by allegations of sectarian voting behaviour – initially barred the US from using its bases for strikes. Britain has since relented and joined with France and Germany to commit to “enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source”. That means that the E3’s fortunes are now tied to the US, whether they like it or not.

The way in which these strikes were conducted also tell us something (again) about the state of the world order. In contrast to George W. Bush’s approach prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, no attempt was made to rally European allies, no attempt was made to secure the blessing of the United Nations, and no attempt was made to secure the agreement of the US Congress. 

That last point has incensed Democrats domestically who point out constitutional requirements that decisions to go to war be made by Congress. The administration will point to Truman in Korea, Reagan in Grenada, Clinton in Kosovo and Obama in Libya as examples where that rule was allowed to bend. Clearly, executive power continues to grow and the United Nations is also seen as a pesky irrelevance.

The critical Strait of Hormuz is currently absent normal oil and LNG cargoes as ships wait to see how much insurance premiums are adjusted upwards. Likewise, the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have claimed they will try to close the Bab-el-Mandeb, another chokepoint for global energy. Iran has already targeted three tankers in the Strait, while the US is labouring to prevent obstructions. Prolonged interruption to flows through this region has huge implications for oil and LNG and every market everywhere if it occurs. Energy is an input to ALL production.

How this plays out will determine the stability of the greater Middle East. Pakistan and Afghanistan are at war, with the former accusing the latter of becoming a “colony of India” and dozens of Pakistanis killed while attempting to storm a US consulate in Karachi. Do two wars combine into rolling regional chaos? Or does U.S. hard power achieve what endless technocratic talk has failed to do for decades?

Moreover, it will decide if Trumpism is a historic success or failure. U.S. voters don’t like inflation or presidents who get into Forever Wars, especially after being elected to end them. They do like easy foreign policy wins that boost U.S. global power and prestige.

So, why did Trump do this now? Because there was a strike opportunity; reportedly, a U.S. fear of an Iranian missile launch; Iran was rearming – China was about to supply it with new advanced missiles; India’s Modi had just talked up an alliance with Israel; and above all as the attack on Iran is an essential part of his Grand Macro Strategy to retain 21st century hegemony vs a rising China.

We’ve previously explained that Chinese control of supply chains and rare earths is an U.S. Achilles’ heel. The logical response is to ensure the raw materials China relies on –where it cannot project hard power now and the U.S. can– are in U.S. or U.S.-allied hands. That allows it to exert counter pressure to give it space to reindustrialise. Energy is the obvious candidate, and food is another.

This concept predicted the coup de main in Venezuela. The logic for Iran is clearer given it supplies China with much more energy that Venezuela did. Indeed, this leaves Russia as the main cheap oil vendor to China –strengthening Moscow’s hand in that partnership – but cuts off the flow of Shahed drones and ammunition that Iran was providing for the war in Ukraine. Equally, this latest action likely increases U.S. pressure on Moscow, or encourages further tactical outreach in an effort to isolate China. Is it a coincidence that Zelenskyy now says Putin has accepted the terms of a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine?

There are parallel parts of the Trump plan in play. If Iran is flipped, it opens up the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that ties India’s growing economy to the West’s via the Middle East’s energy – with no role for China and the Belt and Road initiative effectively subverted. This would be impossible to achieve if Iran continued to play spoiler. Still, the Trump strategy is a high risk-high reward gamble. There is no safety net if the US doesn’t manage to land this manoeuvre.

If we see quick regime change, even just via a changing of the revolutionary guard as in Caracas, Trumpism will be entrenched. Most U.S. voters will appreciate the win; oil prices will fall and stay low; and all Middle Power ‘strategic autonomy’ alternatives to US hard power will be revealed as an irrelevance. The Trump focus can then swing back to reindustrialisation and affordability as the midterm elections approach. 

The huge ‘what if?’ would be China immediately escalating in Asia vs a depleted U.S. military. Beijing has substantial oil reserves while the U.S. doesn’t yet have large rare earths equivalents – and its industrial capacity is still in no state to challenge China in a protracted confrontation. Beijing pursuing such a stratagem looks unlikely if US deterrence is maintained, but could the impending Trump-Xi summit fall through?

If we see a U.S. win but a chaotic Iranian collapse that opens the door to regional instability and/or a clash between U.S. allies Turkey and Israel as they jockey for power. This would be very bad for the US’s geostrategic ends. U.S. voters may not notice unless oil rises again, but IMEC will stumble and the U.S. won’t be able to walk away from the Middle East to focus on the Indo-Pacific. It also won’t be able to focus domestically as required. Anti-Trump Middle Powers would take no comfort from that backdrop.

If we see a U.S. and Israeli strategic defeat —Iran is aiming to drag this fight out until the U.S. and Israel are exhausted: as with Hamas, sheer survival is seen as victory— Trumpism will suffer both electorally and geopolitically: its grand macro strategy will unravel, to China’s advantage. That’s again not a world where rules-based actors do well; very far from it.

In short, how this plays out will determine not just the inflation direction short term but the stability of the greater Middle East and potentially further afield. Failure will ensure chaos both regionally and globally. Success will entrench the ascent of unilateral hard power over impotent multilateral gabfests.

Welcome to the new age of empires.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Shocking videos reveal migrants setting traps and snatching protected birds from public waterways, fueling outrage over unchecked immigration destroying local wildlife.

Video evidence from Ireland shows a local resident dismantling crude wire cages placed along Dublin’s Grand Canal by tent-dwelling migrants, believed to be targeting swans and ducks for consumption. 

The footage captures the man, accompanied by his dog, uprooting the traps hidden in the grass near the water’s edge.

Ever wonder why swans and ducks are disappearing from our rivers, canals and ponds in Ireland? Fair play to this man (and his dog), who paid a visit to the Grand Canal to dismantle cage traps set up by male migrants in tents. pic.twitter.com/aiV2PjyX44

— Susanne Delaney (@SuzieD755164) February 27, 2026

In the clip, no direct dialogue is heard, but the intent is clear as the resident methodically removes the snares, preventing what could have been a slaughter of iconic birds.

This incident echoes similar scenes across the UK. One video documents an RSPCA officer confronting a migrant family suspected of poaching and cooking a large white bird, possibly a swan.

?NEWS: MIGRANTS EATING SWANS WILL NOT BE CHARGED

– They have been warned not to do it again by the RSPCA

Swans are a protected species
These people don’t care
We need mass deportations pic.twitter.com/eWeX2O7lKS

— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) June 12, 2025

“I’m going to get someone to check what bird this is. I think it might be a swan, but do you know the big white birds that you see on the park?” the officer questions.

She inspects the pot: “You can see bones in this bird because he isn’t chicken so I am concerned. There are laws against people taking animals… It’s very serious. It’s very serious if that happens.”

Examining the bin, she notes: “You see problem is there are lot of big white feathers here.”

The family claims the birds were bought and released during a children’s chase game, but the officer warns: “What I need to make sure is everybody here knows that they’re not allowed to take anything from the park. I’m not saying you did.”

Another clip shows a family carrying a wild bird they have clearly taken and are intending to eat.

pic.twitter.com/EdKBY1z82Z

— Sandra White (@SandraW42990) September 25, 2025

Another clip shows a migrant grabbing a swan in a park.

This has to be false. The mainstream media told us migrants were not eating the swans! pic.twitter.com/QXyb2kJrdq

— Ian Miles Cheong (@ianmiles) October 27, 2025

Another post asks “What is this migrant doing?” as a man hauls a struggling swan over a railing.

The migrants are eating the swans pic.twitter.com/LHF08sCEI7

— karma (@karma44921039) September 26, 2025

Similar footage captures a man on a bridge snatching a swan from the water below, swinging it by the neck before walking away.

So cool that there is a large amount of video and photographic evidence showing Middle Eastern migrants stealing swans from public parks in the UK and the political-media class establishment just treat you like you’re an idiot if you talk about it

We’re still at the “it’s not… https://t.co/1pLMzwIiLL pic.twitter.com/fzv0Ig3JMV

— Drew Pavlou ???????? (@DrewPavlou) September 27, 2025

These videos and many more like them have sparked furious reactions online.

Fuck me is there anything these cunts won’t steal/kill

— BigStar (@BigStarDub) February 27, 2026

Everything that isn’t nailed down is fair game to these grifting free loaders.

— Erin’s Bestie (@SarahConnorIE) February 27, 2026

fucking bastards. Such a betrayal of these animals that don’t really see us as a threat.

— Kenny (@kenny_Irl) February 27, 2026

Yep me and some angling friends have noticed pike numbers way down. They are also being eaten. ?

— Bríain Ó Éire (@Eirinn76) February 27, 2026

Is nothing safe from the savages ? ??

— Alexa (@Alexa69484823) February 27, 2026

Dear Lord these people are really sick,life in the UK is just getting so hard ,these people are not like us they have no heart void of any feelings ?

— Ann Spence (@Annspence108Ann) February 27, 2026

The cases parallel the chaos in Springfield, Ohio, where Haitian migrants have been accused of decapitating and eating ducks in parks. 

A resident testified at a city commission meeting: “They’re in the park grabbing up ducks by their neck and cutting their head off and walking off with ’em and eating them.”

He questioned officials: “Who is getting paid? Like how much money is y’all really getting paid? Like to bring them over here, like I know it’s deeper than them.”

NEW: Springfield, Ohio man says Haitian illegals are decap*tating ducks from parks & eating them, accuses commission members of getting paid off for allowing it.

“They’re in the park grabbing up ducks by their neck and cutting their head off and walking off with ’em and eating… pic.twitter.com/uE3wI3CXl3

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 8, 2024

As we previously reported, Springfield’s city manager admitted hearing such reports, despite later denials amid media “fact checks” dismissing the issue as misinformation.

This pattern exposes the failures of open-border policies, importing incompatible cultural practices that harm protected wildlife and erode community safety. From Ohio’s overwhelmed streets to Britain’s depleted parks, the toll of mass migration mounts.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

We told readers one month ago that, while trillions of dollars are being allocated to the global data center buildout, virtually every Wall Street analyst remains fixated on financing, chip stacks, power, land, water, and other obvious mainstream inputs. However, we identified one overlooked emerging threat they missed: the risk of kamikaze drone attacks.

By Sunday morning, that risk was realized, as our note pointed out that Amazon’s cloud unit, AWS, experienced degraded service in the United Arab Emirates due to a “localized power issue.”

Now, a Reuters report provides more color on what exactly happened after an AWS data center in the UAE had to shut down operations, in what appears to be the first known instance of a commercial data center being physically targeted in a conflict.

Reuters reports that an object struck an AWS data center in the UAE, causing a fire and shutting it down. Assuming this was an Iranian drone strike, it is the first time a commercial data center was physically targeted in a conflict. It won’t be the last.https://t.co/4b7DHklwoU

— Chris McGuire (@ChrisRMcGuire) March 1, 2026

UAE Data Center Map

The first commercial data center to be damaged on the modern battlefield is certainly not going to be the last, as the Ukraine war has created a period of rapid weapon development over the last four years, as well as in other conflict areas around the world, with the proliferation of FPVs and cheap drones with warheads and AI kill chains.

This threat was outlined in our note titled “Explosion In AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security,” as we recognized that the rapid development in this war technology has effectively accelerated war tech from the 2030s to today (read here). There were absolutely no Wall Street analysts we read on a daily basis discussing this emerging drone threat to data centers as the great buildout unfolded. Analysts were too busy talking about power and AI chips.

But guess who was talking about the data center threat about a year ago? Well… former Google CEO Eric Schmidt (read here). Schmidt was in Ukraine in January (read here).  

US equity futures and global stocks tumbled, the dollar and gold rallied and oil soared as military strikes intensified across the Middle East, sending oil to its biggest surge in four years and stoking concern that faster inflation could weigh on the global economy. AS of 8:10am ET, S&P 500 futures are down more than 1% – but off overnight lows – after the cash index fell nearly 1% over the previous two trading days; Nasdaq futures tumbled 1.5% with all Mag 7 stocks lower by more than 1% in premarket trading; Aerospace/Defense, Energy, and Gold Miners are the safety havens in equities and all are bid pre-mkt; PLTR +4% may help +Software/-Semis. In the latest war news, AMZN data centers were hit in Bahrain/UAE, as was a UK base in Cyprus; with Israel attacking Lebanon; both Israeli and Saudi indices opened higher before reversing lower due to escalation. After soaring 13% at the open, crude oil traded down to +4% and was now +7.5% after Saudi Aramco halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery after a drone strike in the area. Bond yields are notably higher, rising +4-5bps with the USD bid against all major FX and DXY +57bp which would be its best day since Feb 2. Energy is unsurprisingly leading commodities higher with double-digit gains in gasoil, heating oil, and EU natgas. Gold, which is now at $5400, is leading silver ($94/oz) with platinum flat. 

In premarket trading, energy and defense stocks rallied, with Exxon Mobil shares climbing 5.2% in early trading. British Airways owner IAG SA fell 5.4% amid a widespread disruption to flights in the Middle East. Mag 7 stocks all fall (Microsoft -0.8%, Apple -1%, Nvidia -1.3%, Meta -1.7%, Amazon -2.4%, Alphabet -2.6%, Tesla -2.1%)

• The Iran conflict is pushing shares of airlines and cruise operators lower, while energy stocks jump. Movers include American Airlines (AAL) -6% and Exxon (XOM) +4%.
• US banks and financials are pointing lower as risk off sentiment extends with military strikes intensifying across the Middle East. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) -2%, Wells Fargo (WFC) -1.7%.
• AES Corp. (AES) falls 16% after a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT agreed to buy the electric utility.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) slips 1% after the conglomerate’s operating profits fell nearly 30% in Warren Buffett’s last quarter as CEO. Analysts note weakness in the company’s insurance businesses.
• EchoStar (SATS) declines 2% after the parent of Dish Network posted a net loss in the fourth quarter.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) rises 5% after Warner Bros. Discovery filed a join-statement following the market close on Friday announcing that they had entered into a definitive merger agreement.
• UniQure (QURE) tumbles 41% after US regulators said the company should conduct a pivotal study before getting approval of its gene therapy for Huntington’s disease, another example of the Trump administration slowing a treatment for a rare disease drug.

While markets are recoiling from the latest war in the Middle East, the strikes on Iran were heavily telegraphed and traders had built up meaningful hedging. Still, the conflict may be longer and wider than some expected. Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran will continue, perhaps for weeks. Iran fired missiles on Israel, US military bases and Persian Gulf countries including the financial hub of Dubai (there is a full summary of all the latest war news in the section below).

The war in Iran is adding to a list of headwinds for markets already on edge after fears over disruption from artificial intelligence and pressure in private credit have nearly erased this year’s gains in the S&P 500. Investors are now focused on how long the conflict will last and how far hostilities might spread, after President Donald Trump said the campaign could continue for weeks.

“The endgame remains highly uncertain, ranging from a relatively swift political exit to a broader regional spillover,” said Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer. “In such a fog of war, markets tend to trade probabilities rather than shifting facts.”

The dollar strengthened as a spike in oil prices spurred traders to dial back bets on Fed rate cuts this year, with Bloomberg economists writing that changes to Fed policy are far from guaranteed, despite the war. The team’s risk scenario is for oil to raise to $108 a barrel, while a more temporary spike would keep the Fed on alert, but not trigger a shift in policy.

Meanwhile, Aramco halted operations at Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery after a drone strike in the area, Bloomberg reported. QatarEnergy’s decision to cease LNG production followed attacks on its Ras Laffan complex, sending European gas prices soaring.

“It is still very unclear what the duration of the conflict will be and more importantly, how the energy market reacts,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “One positive for the US is that the market has corrected since January, so we are not in overbought territory. It’s fair to say havens should continue to outperform.”

Strategists are coalescing around the view that a buying opportunity for US stocks may emerge. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka said the weekend’s events will naturally lead to risk-off in the short term, but investors with a 3/6/12-month time frame should use weakness to increase exposure. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson agrees that the bullish view is intact for now, with a lasting spike in oil above $100 needed to impact the US equity outlook.

Still, geopolitical events underscore the need to diversify and hedge portfolios at a much faster pace over the next few months, according to today’s Taking Stock column. The impact on the stock market will be determined by its duration, Citigroup strategists said, as they presume a shorter-term impact.

Prashant Bhayani, chief investment officer for Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, said the main questions traders are looking out for are how long the disruption lasts, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, any impact on oil infrastructure and whether Iran and the US can reach a negotiated settlement. “Most geopolitical events have limited long-term impact on asset markets,” Bhayani said. “There is already a premium in oil of circa $7-$10 before today’s trading. Only in an extended conflict, with oil prices over $100, would it materially impact the global economy.”

On the economic front, payrolls come back into focus later this week with the survey forecasting a more modest pace of hiring in February relative to the start of the year. January retail sales data is also due Friday, while the Fed’s Beige Book is released on Wednesday. 

The Stoxx 600 has pared its fall, to 1.4%, although remains on course for its worst daily performance since November after conflict in the Middle East escalated over the weekend. Energy is the only sector in the green, while retail, travel and consumer product stocks fall the most. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Shipping and logistics stocks are among the few gainers in European trading on Monday as conflict in the Middle East disrupts the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes.
• Energy stocks rise on back of an oil-price surge triggered by US and Israeli strikes against Iran. Morgan Stanley upgraded the sector to overweight, while JPMorgan upped its price targets on a slew of companies.
• Galp Energia shares rise as much as 9.6%, hitting their highest level since mid-2024, as rising Middle East tensions cause oil prices to surge.
• European defense stocks jump, with BAE Systems among those hitting record highs, as conflict in the Middle East spurs expectations of elevated security spending.
• Novo Nordisk shares fall as much as 5.7% and were downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs after data last week showed its next-generation obesity drug CagriSema delivered less weight loss than Eli Lilly’s rival blockbuster.
• European banks fall as war between the US and Iran triggered a broad-based selloff.
• European airlines stocks slump as conflict in the Middle East causes major disruptions at some of the world’s busiest airports. Analysts flag higher fuel costs and air space closures as factors likely to disrupt the sector.
• Informa shares sink as much as 11%, the biggest intraday drop since the Covid outbreak of 2020, as the events firm got swept up in the selloff of stocks exposed to the conflict in the Middle East.
• Oxford Nanopore shares drop as much as 18% after the British DNA-sequencing company cut its medium-term growth guidance, which analysts say will spark consensus downgrades.
• Luxury stocks fall as the escalating conflict in the Middle East creates a “highly uncertain backdrop” for the sector, according to Vontobel.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks dropped for the first time in six days as the US-Israeli war against Iran prompted investors to reduce exposure to risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.8%, the most in a month, with financials and health-care the worst-performing sectors. A subgauge of energy shares climbed nearly 1% as oil rallied. Pakistani shares plunged the most on record after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, while benchmarks in Thailand, the Philippines and Hong Kong were leading declines in the region. Markets in South Korea were shut for a holiday. For Asian assets, the main risk from a prolonged Middle East conflict lies in a stronger dollar and higher oil prices, given that most economies in the region are net energy importers. A gauge of the greenback advanced on Monday and oil prices spiked before paring gains following a report that indicated at least one top official in Tehran sought to resume nuclear talks with the US. Japan’s Topix also dropped nearly 3% before paring declines, with bank stocks among the biggest losers.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped 1.8% to enter a technical correction. A gauge of Chinese tech shares listed in the financial hub — which entered a bear market last month — shed 2.9%. The declines came as investors keenly awaited the start of China’s most important annual political meeting from Thursday, where top leaders are expected to set the growth target for 2026 and lay out economic priorities for the coming five years.

In FX, the dollar has pulled back from the highs. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.5%. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.9%. The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have been the most resilient.

In rates, treasuries hold losses after erasing opening gains that were spurred by broadening Middle East warfare after the US struck Iran. The reversal suggested that traders chose to bet on the potential inflationary aspects of the US-Iran conflict rather than rush to safe havens which helped Friday’s rally into month-end. Adding to upside pressure on yields, US benchmark crude oil futures are up about 8% with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a near standstill. US yields are 3bp to 4bp higher, keeping curve spreads within 1bp of Friday’s closing levels. 10-year is near 3.98% vs session low 3.922% reached shortly after the Asia open. European government bonds are also in the red with underperformance seen in shorter-dated maturities as traders trim bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and European Central Bank.

For Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY, Monday’s rise in US yields came as no big surprise given the elevated levels at which bonds were trading. The 10-year rate was at 3.99%, five basis points higher for the day.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures rose the most in four years, while Brent crude soared more than 7%, topping $80 a barrel as traders assess how quickly Hormuz traffic can normalize. In Europe, natural gas jumped as much as 28%, the biggest increase since August 2023 after Goldman warned that European natural gas prices could more than double if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for one month. Spot gold rises 2% and briefly topped $5,400/oz. Silver logs a slightly smaller gain. Bitcoin rises 0.8%. 

US economic data slate includes February final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and February ISM manufacturing (10am); no Fed speakers are scheduled

Market snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.4%
• Russell 2000 mini -1.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1.3%
• DAX -1.6%
• CAC 40 -1.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 3.96%
• VIX +3.4 points at 23.3
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1192.78
• euro -0.6% at $1.1743
• WTI crude +7.4% at $72.01/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran may last for weeks and called on the nation’s leaders to capitulate. Blasts were heard across several Gulf states as they intercepted missiles launched by Iran. Trump is pushing for an Iranian leadership change but told ABC his preferred candidates to lead Iran were killed in the initial US strike. BBG
• Iran is planning to name a new supreme leader within days after Saturday’s killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While Trump has urged Iranians to seize power from the regime, there’s no sign the US has laid the groundwork for an opposition movement. BBG
• The IDF bombed Lebanon after Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into Israel, opening a new front in a widening regional war. Lebanon ordered the militant group to disarm. BBG
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the killing of Khamenei “unacceptable,” complicating the planned summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping. Beijing said Washington gave it no advance warning of the attack, and added that they are in communication with the US about exchanges between their leaders. BBG
• China Foreign Ministry said they are in communication with the US about exchanges between their leaders.
• Wealthy investors who ploughed hundreds of billions of dollars into private credit are pulling back, cutting off a key source of funds that investment giants including Blackstone, Blue Owl, and Ares Management have used to fuel their growth. New commitments to so called non traded business development companies slid 40% to $3.2bn in January compared with December. FT
• DeepSeek is set to release its latest large language model next week, more than a year since its last major release in a fresh test of China’s ambitions to challenge US rivals in AI.
• A gauge of manufacturing activity signaled continued improvement in some of Asia’s top exporting economies midway through the first quarter, as demand for the region’s goods defied a volatile global environment. WSJ
• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the central bank is expected to keep raising interest rates but gave no hints on the timing of the next hike, as the Middle East conflict heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook. RTRS
• Russian officials increasingly consider there’s no point to continue US-led peace talks with Ukraine unless Kyiv is willing to cede territory to reach a deal, according to people familiar with the negotiations. BBG

Iran War

• US and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February, with explosions reported across Tehran shortly after 09:30 local time (06:00 GMT / 01:00 EST), and additional strikes were confirmed in Isfahan, Qom, Karaj and Kermanshah, while the Israeli military confirmed it launched an additional wave of strikes on Sunday morning, targeting Iran’s ballistic missile and aerial defence systems.
• Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following Saturday’s US–Israeli “decapitation strike” on his secure residence and office compound in central Tehran. Furthermore, IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks on Sunday, while Iranian sources stated that 27 US bases across the region were targeted, along with Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv. It was also reported that Iran fired missiles towards British military bases in Cyprus and that rockets landed near British troops in Bahrain.
• Israeli Air Force launched a new wave of attacks on Iranian regime targets in Tehran early on Monday and bombarded Hezbollah strongholds in the southern suburb of Beirut, while Hezbollah fired rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, and it was also reported that Hezbollah parliamentary bloc head Mohammed Raad was killed in an Israeli raid.
• US President Trump said the US military launched “major combat operations” in Iran with the objective of defending the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. Trump said people in Iran should stay at home and that bombs will be dropping everywhere, while he called for Iranians to take over the government.
• US President Trump said that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei had died, and he was informed that they destroyed and sank nine Iranian ships, as well as largely destroyed the naval headquarters. Trump separately commented that the military operations are ahead of schedule and that 48 leaders were killed in strikes on Iran, while he also stated that Iranian leaders want to talk and he has agreed to talk, but couldn’t say if it would happen soon, according to Atlantic Magazine and Daily Mail. Furthermore, Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks, while he also stated on Sunday that they have hit hundreds of targets in Iran under ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and combat operations will continue in full force until all objectives are complete.
• US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic and that he had three very good choices for Iran’s next leader, although he also commented that the people he considered for Iran’s next leader died in the air attacks.
• US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT. White House separately announced that US Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth are to brief a full Congress on Tuesday.
• US officials told Al Jazeera that the strikes on Iran are focused on military targets and will be far more extensive than the US strikes last June, while the US reported that three US service members died and five were seriously wounded amid the operations against Iran.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said the US and Israel operations are to remove the existential threat from the Iranian regime, while Israeli officials characterised the action as a “pre-emptive strike” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel ordered the shutdown of some natural gas fields as a security measure following the US-Israel strike on Iran, while it pre-approved a USD 2.9bln supplement to the defence budget to fund the war with Iran.

Trade/Tariffs 

• India’s Foreign Ministry announces that they have signed an uranium supply agreement with Canada.
• Singapore and South Korea are in talks to upgrade a free trade agreement.

 A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly pressured as all focus centred on geopolitics following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed its Supreme Leader and dozens of officials, while Iran responded with retaliatory strikes against the US and allies, including several neighbours in the Gulf. ASX 200 was rangebound with weakness seen in tech, financial and airlines stocks as the latter got a double whammy from flight disruptions and higher fuel costs, while energy stocks benefitted from the surge in oil due to the Iran conflict.
Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 58,000 level as exporters suffered from the worsening geopolitical climate and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which the IRGC shut.  Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with heavy losses in Hong Kong due to tech weakness, while the mainland shrugged off early jitters and climbed ahead of the annual ‘two sessions’ in Beijing, where top officials are set to unveil economic strategies.

Top Asian News

• China overhauled a key micro credit program in which the focus is shifting to longer-term income support for rural households from a prior focus on poverty alleviation.
• Macau gaming revenue in February rose 4.5% Y/Y to MOP 20.6bln (exp. 1% growth).
• DeepSeek is to release the long-awaited DeepSeek 4 model in the week ahead.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.3%) are entirely in the red due to instability in the Middle East. In brief, the US-Israeli war with Iran has entered its third day, with all sides conducting large-scale airstrikes. Airspaces have been closed, oil refineries and tankers have been hit, and threats of further attacks continue (see “Iran Situation Report – Day 3” on the headline feed for more detailed analysis). The FTSE 100 (-1.0%) is being supported, albeit posting slight losses, helped by the major oil names (BP +1.8%, Shell +2.2%) as oil prices rise. The banking-heavy IBEX 35 (-2.2%) and FTSE MIB (-1.7%) have been hit the hardest on the prospect of increased war-risk claims.
From a sectoral perspective, Energy leads the pile, given the strength in underlying oil prices; Defence names are also stronger across the board, given the increased tensions; Rheinmetall +1.3%, BAE +5.2%, Leonardo +4.7%. One other key space of the market that has benefited is shipping names such as Maersk (+4.5%), Kuehne+Nagel (+0.4%), due to higher freight rates. US equity futures (ES -1.0%, NQ -1.4%, RTY -1.4%) have followed the global risk tone; in recent trade, contracts are attempting to rebound off worst levels, though remain significantly in the red. ASML (ASML NA) is planning to expand into advanced packaging for AI chips, and is exploring larger chip sizes and scanner systems

Top European News

• Top academics warned that planned cuts to physics and astronomy funding risk undermining a key government strategy to harness innovation to boost economic growth, according to FT.

FX

• DXY gains but trades off best levels as participants flock to the USD in light of the weekend geopolitics, with the initial US-Israel strike on Iran expanding throughout the Gulf and Middle East. Analysts at ING highlight three main channels that keep the USD in demand: 1) the US is less dependent on imported energy vs Europe and most of Asia. Higher energy hurts importers (EUR, JPY), whilst European Nat Gas opened up around 25%. 2) Markets are scaling back expectations for rate cuts from the Fed, with higher energy also proving headwinds for disinflation. A “bearish flattening” in the US yield curve (short-end yields rising) supports the dollar. 3) Higher energy and reduced Fed easing expectations could reverse capital flows into EM, which would further support the USD. DXY is around the middle of a 97.768-98.566 range after hitting highs around an hour after the European cash open.
• GBP is the worst performer amid the RAF base in Cyprus being struck by an Iranian drone. The UK has confirmed it is not participating in offensive operations but is permitting defensive use of bases. GBP/USD slipped from a 1.3456 peak to a 1.3314 trough.
• EUR has been hit by the aforementioned surge in energy prices, with EUR/USD slumping from near 1.1800 to lows of 1.1698 before trimming losses at the time of writing. ING suggests EUR/USD could slide back toward the 1.1575–1.1600 area if escalation continues.
• JPY and CHF are softer despite their haven appeals, with the USD sought after given its reduced dependency on energy imports. USD/JPY is +0.6% in a 156.04-157.25 range. USD/CHF trades +0.5% in a 0.7668-0.7742 parameter.
• Antipodeans also post losses amid their high-beta properties and sensitivity to risk. AUD/USD resides in a 0.7032-0.7117 range and NZD/USD in a 0.5928-0.5995 band.

Fixed Income

• USTs opened higher, then jumped to a session high of 114-12, before quickly paring much of the upside as the APAC session progressed. The narrative quickly shifted from “haven” related upside, to traders assessing and then pricing in the inflationary impacts of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This impacts both: a) energy prices, b) prices of goods which are subject to longer trading routes, as shipping giants avoid the chokepoint. From a central banking perspective, inflationary pressures could see policymakers shift hawkishly – though, Danske Bank suggested that the Fed is unlikely to trigger speculations of near-term policy shifts following the rise in energy prices. Geopols aside, the US ISM manufacturing survey for February is expected to be little changed at 52.3 (from 52.6). The Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow tracking estimate, which is currently modelling growth of 3.0% in Q1. Later in the session, the Fed will publish its Senior Loan Officer Survey. USTs currently trade around 113-23 within a 113-22+ to 114-12 range.
• Bunds moving in-line with peers and currently trading around 130.05 to 130.53 range. Price action is similar to the above, initial haven flows buoyed German paper, before markets began factoring in inflationary impacts. Danske expect short-term widening Schatz spreads, but the bank highlights that safe-haven inflows are often short-lived and modest.
• Gilts are underperforming, and trades lower by around 30 ticks within a 93.31 to 93.57 range. Underperformance, which perhaps can be explained given that the region is a net-importer of oil, and as such has long been considered highly vulnerable to energy volatility. Elsewhere, ahead of this week’s UK Spring Statement, Chancellor Reeves has received a GBP 22bln windfall as tax receipts outperformed forecasts, according to Bloomberg; analysis of official data showed stronger than expected self-assessed income tax and sales levy revenues, alongside lower debt-interest spending, contributing to the improvement in the public finances.

Commodities

• Crude futures surged at the reopen in reaction to the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East owing to the strikes against Iran and the killing of its Supreme Leader, as well as its retaliation against the US and several neighbours in the Gulf, while it also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (Newsquawk analysis available on the feed). However, prices waned off their opening highs as Brent returned to beneath the USD 80/bbl and WTI briefly retreated to below 70/bbl levels before recovering, with Brent May’26 currently within USD 74.54-80.82/bbl (+6.2% at the time of writing) and WTI Apr’26 within USD 71.88-75.33/bbl (+7.3% at the time of writing).
• Spot gold rallied on a haven bid amid the weekend geopolitics (Newsquawk analysis available on the feed) but then mildly pulled back after stalling just shy of the USD 5,400/oz level in APAC trade, before mounting the level to a USD 5,419.15/oz peak. Spot silver hit a USD 92.42/oz peak from a USD 92.02/oz trough.
• Copper futures ultimately weakened overnight but trades flat in European hours, in choppy trade amid the mostly negative risk appetite in the region, with all focus on geopolitics. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13,249.60-13,444/t range at the time of writing.
• OPEC+ is to resume oil output increases, in which it will add 206k bpd in April. It had been previously reported over the weekend that OPEC+ could consider a larger production hike of as much as 441k bpd following the strike on Iran.
• IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. Furthermore, analysts warned of a potential Brent crude move above USD 100/bbl if the blockade persists.
• Oil facilities of regional countries are not Iran’s targets, via Mehr.
• Chevron (CVX) said it was instructed by Israel’s Ministry of Energy to temporarily shut-in production at the Leviathan gas production platform.
• Middle East crude benchmark Dubai’s premium rises to around USD 5.90/bbl, the highest since 2022, sources say.
• IAEA Director General Grossi said we have no indication that any of Iran’s nuclear installations have been damaged or hit. The situation is very concerning, cannot rule out a possible radiological release with serious consequences. No elevation of radiation levels above the usual background levels have been detected so far in countries neighbouring Iran.
• Saudi Energy Ministry says limited fire at Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, no impact on supplies.
• The limited fire at Ras Tanura refinery was due to shrapnel falling during an interception operation, Al Hadath reported.

Central Banks

• BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said to raise rates if economic outlook is met, adds the goal is to maintain price stability by avoiding excessive inflation and deflation, thereby supporting sustainable economic growth. said:Impact of rate hikes has been limited so far.
• SNB states that in view of the international situation, we are more prepared to intervene in the FX market.
• Swiss Sight Deposits (w/e Mar 1). Domestic Banks CHF 440.5bln (prev. 440.6bln), Total CHF 459.8bln (prev. 457.6bln).

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli military says it has begun additional strikes on Tehran.
• Qatar Defence Ministry says it intercepted two Iranian drones, which targeted energy facilties; one drone headed towards QatarEnergy’s Raf Laffan facility
• “Israel army said there is no reason for Lebanon ground invasion for now”, via Al Arabiya citing AFP.
• Israel’s IDF said “We are discussing the option of carrying out a ground operation inside Lebanon”, via Al Jazeera.
• Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA said Israel and the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday.
• Iran’s Larijani said they will not negotiate with the US.
• Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Larijani said US President Trump has brought chaos to the region with “false whims” and is now worried of more casualties among US forces. Trump is sacrificing American soldiers for Israel’s quest for power.
• Iran warns that those responsible for killing Supreme Leader Khamenei will face consequences.
• US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic, according to New York Times. said:He had three very good choices for next Iran leader.
• US President Trump said the people he considered for Iran’s next leader died in the air attacks, according to ABC News.
• US President Trump said Iran does not want to go quite far enough and it’s too bad and are not happy with Iran negotiation.
• US Secretary of State Rubio designating Iran as state sponsor of wrongful detention; Iran must stop taking hostages; will consider other measures if Iran does not stop.
• US State Department said no American should travel to Iran for any reason and reiterate their call for Americans who are currently in Iran to leave immediately.
• Hezbollah reportedly fires rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, according to Israel Broadcasting Corporation.
• Omani Foreign Minister said “The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never, ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb…”, according to CBS interviewing Albusaidi. “

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine President Zelensky says long war in Iran may impact air defence for Ukraine.
• Russia is said to consider a halt in peace talks unless Ukraine cedes land. Talks planned for the week ahead will be decisive on whether or not the sides can agree on terms to end the war, while Russia will likely walk away if Ukrainian President Zelensky fails to make the concession.
• A fuel terminal in Russia’s Novorossiysk is on fire, according to local authorities.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Feb F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 51.35, prior 51.2
• 10:00 am: United States Feb ISM Manufacturing, est. 51.5, prior 52.6
• 10:00 am: United States Feb ISM Prices Paid, est. 60, prior 59

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Those who read my EMR on Friday will appreciate that frantic emails around a major international conflict were an interesting additional challenge to try to squeeze into a packed weekend of “daddy childcare”. By now, there is little point in recapping much of the news around the strikes on Iran, so instead we’ll jump straight into the latest market reaction.

As regular readers will know from the work we have shared from DB’s Binky Chadha, the negative market impact of notable geopolitical events is usually measured in only days and weeks, and you could argue that the market has increasingly realised this and now reacts less to big geopolitical events than it may have done a few years ago. However, one persistent risk is always a prolonged impact on the oil price. As such, that is the main market to watch today and for the duration of this episode. How firmly, or officially closed, the Strait of Hormuz remains will probably play a big part in this. 

So far, Brent is about +7% higher at $77.60/bbl as I type this morning, having briefly been as high as $82 as trading in Asia opened. The spike comes as tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz has largely stopped with Iran having attacked three oil tankers over the weekend, though Iran’s foreign minister said on Sunday that Iran was not seeking to close the strait. There is a view that ahead of the mid-terms, the US administration will do what they can to ensure Iran struggles to block the Strait for long. Investors will also be watching the extent of damage to Iran’s oil export facilities. 

Meanwhile, OPEC+ yesterday announced a supply increase of 206k barrels a day in April, following an increase of 137k a day in December. This is a decent rise, but it would not change the bigger picture if there were a sizeable disruption to oil flows.

With most markets closed over the weekend, Bitcoin served as a barometer of sentiment and immediately dropped around -4% when news of the attacks broke early London time on Saturday morning. From these lows, it rebounded around 7% through Saturday and into Sunday as mounting speculation that Supreme Leader Khamenei had been killed was confirmed. This raised hopes of a decisive operation with an obvious ending. As things stand, Bitcoin is about -2% down off these highs, but still +2% above where we were just before the strikes.

Market sentiment bounced shortly after the Asia open amid some more encouraging reporting. According to the New York Times, Trump said that he was open to lifting sanctions on Iran if its new leadership was pragmatic though he also said that the US could keep up its campaign against Iran for “four to five weeks”. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council who’s seen as leading Iran’s current effort, made a fresh push to resume nuclear talks with Washington via Omani mediators. However Larijani has poured some cold water on this on X, stating that “We will not negotiate with the United States.” This has taken oil off its lows for the session.

With the US unlikely to put boots on the ground, it’s not clear if full regime change is achievable and its outcome would be highly unpredictable, which naturally leaves questions of whether a negotiated resolution can still be found. At the same time, we’ve seen a widening of the conflict to Lebanon overnight, with Israel striking targets in the country after Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel.

So that all leaves global markets with a clear but not extreme risk-off reaction this morning. S&P 500 futures are down -0.81% from Friday’s close, with those on the STOXX 50 down a larger -1.47%. Note that Europe is more negatively exposed to higher energy prices, including also possible disruptions to LNG shipments from the Gulf. Meanwhile, in Asia, the Hang Seng (-1.59%) and the Nikkei (-1.51%) are among the worst performers, also affected by declines in technology stocks. The Shanghai Comp has turned positive (+0.33%). In FX, the dollar index is +0.29% higher, while the Swiss Franc is the best performing G10 currency amid the safe-haven demand. And gold is +1.41% higher. For Treasuries, yields initially opened a touch lower amid the safe-haven bid but this has quickly reversed this morning with the 10yr +2.8bps higher at 3.97%, after ending last week at post-2024 lows. So overall fairly measured response in Asia to the weekend events. 

Outside the obvious and huge attention on the Middle East, the key focus this week will be on the US jobs report on Friday, retail sales on the same day, the ISM indices (today and Wednesday), and the Fed’s Beige Book, also due on Wednesday. European releases will include inflation data tomorrow and the ECB’s accounts of their February meeting on Thursday. Various global PMIs are also out this week.
In politics, highlights include the Two Sessions in China as well as the Spring Statement in the UK. Earnings reports will be due from Costco and Broadcom.

Delving deeper into the US data, the most important release in the week ahead is Friday’s February employment report. Our economists forecast headline payroll growth of 30k, down from 130k previously, with private payrolls rising by 50k after January’s unusually strong 172k gain. The moderation largely reflects payback from outsized hiring last month in private education and health services and construction, where job gains more than doubled their six month averages. Elsewhere in the establishment survey, our economists expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.4% month over month, unchanged from January, while the average workweek remains steady at 34.3 hours.

The household survey adds an additional layer of uncertainty this month, as the BLS implements its delayed annual population controls. Our economists forecast the unemployment rate at 4.3%, though risks around this estimate are elevated in both directions. January data will also be revised using the new controls, and attention will be focused on whether these adjustments meaningfully alter unemployment rates across demographic groups, particularly among younger cohorts, where concerns around entry level hiring remain heightened.
Friday also brings January retail sales, where weather related weakness in auto sales is likely to weigh on the headline figure. Our economists expect headline sales to decline 0.6%, with sales excluding autos down 0.1%, partly reflecting lower gasoline prices. That said, retail control sales are forecast to rebound by 0.3%, pointing to a firmer underlying pace of goods consumption. Tax refunds should provide additional support to spending in coming months, with the average refund running meaningfully higher than a year ago.

Ahead of Friday, several other releases will help set the tone. Our economists expect today’s manufacturing ISM to edge up to 53.1 from 52.6. Wednesday brings the ADP employment report, forecast at 50k (though seasonals might push it higher), alongside the non manufacturing ISM, seen at 54.0.

Other notable data include February unit motor vehicle sales tomorrow, which our economists expect at 15.1 million, potentially restrained again by adverse weather. Thursday’s preliminary Q4 productivity and unit labour cost figures are forecast at 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively.
Moving to Europe, the focus will continue to be on inflation, with February prints due for the Eurozone and Italy tomorrow, Switzerland on Wednesday, and Sweden on Thursday. ECB speakers will include President Lagarde today, and the central bank will release the accounts of its February meeting on Thursday.

In the UK, attention will be on the Spring Statement delivered by the Chancellor tomorrow, and our UK economist previews it here. There will also be the February DMP survey from the BoE on Thursday.

Over in Asia, the spotlight will be on China’s annual Two Sessions starting Wednesday (running through March 11), followed by the National People’s Congress session opening on Thursday, with the 15th Five Year Plan expected. Elsewhere, data highlights will include the February PMIs, both the official and private gauges, in China on Wednesday.

In Japan, our Chief Japan economist highlights the Shunto wage demands due on Thursday as the most anticipated event next week and expects wage demands this year to come in at 6.0%. There will also be the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations (MoF survey) for Q4 on Tuesday, as well as the February consumer sentiment index on Wednesday. For more detail and forecasts, see our Chief Japan economist’s week ahead for the country here.

Earnings will include tech firms Broadcom, CrowdStrike and Marvell. US consumer firms will continue to be in focus, with reports from Costco and Target.

Looking back at last week, which now feels like a long time ago, the main theme was the ongoing AI disruption narrative, which continued to affect a range of assets. In part, this reflected the now infamous memo from Citrini Research, which outlined a hypothetical scenario in which AI adoption drove the US unemployment rate into double digits by mid 2028. We also had Nvidia’s earnings, which once again failed to deliver the kind of positive surprise markets had grown used to in 2023–24, even as they beat analysts’ estimates. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 fell -0.44% (-0.43% on Friday), with the Magnificent 7 down -1.80% (-1.41% on Friday). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -1.96% (-1.21% on Friday), ending a run of 10 consecutive weekly gains.

Performance outside the US was notably stronger. The STOXX 600 posted a fifth consecutive weekly gain of +0.52% (+0.11% on Friday), closing at a record high. In Japan, the Nikkei rose +3.56% (+0.16% on Friday) to also hit a new record, taking its year to date gains to +16.91%.

The biggest news on Friday was rising concern about a possible US strike against Iran, which added further upward pressure on oil prices. Brent crude ended the week up +1.00% (+2.45% on Friday) at a seven month high of $72.48/bbl. It was also another strong week for precious metals, with gold prices up +3.36% (+1.81%) in their fourth consecutive weekly gain, and both are obviously seeing significant action again this morning.

Finally, in fixed income, sovereign bonds benefited from the broader caution. Ten year Treasury yields fell -14.4bps last week (-6.4bps on Friday) to 3.94%, their lowest level since October 2024. In Europe there were similar moves, with 10 year Bund yields down -9.4bps last week (-4.7bps on Friday) to 2.64%, marking their biggest weekly decline since April last year around the Liberation Day turmoil. Credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, with US high yield up +21bps (+9bps on Friday) and US investment grade up +7bps (+2bps on Friday), their biggest weekly widening since the Liberation Day tariffs. In Europe, high yield widened +13bps (+5bps on Friday), while investment grade widened +5bps (+3bps on Friday).

A drone strike forced Saudi Aramco to suspend operations at its Ras Tanura complex while damage assessments are underway on Monday, reviving a 2024 warning we issued that any successful Iranian or Iran-backed militia strike on critical Saudi refining infrastructure could trigger a global oil shock and, in a more severe scenario, set the stage for a broader financial crisis (reminder credit markets are already cracking). 

Sources familiar with the drone attack on the Ras Tanura complex told Bloomberg News that Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery “came under attack by a drone” and “halted operations as a precaution while it assesses damage.”

Footage of the aftermath of the drone strike on the Ras Tanura complex was published on X.

JUST IN: 🇸🇦 Iran strikes Saudi Arabia’s Aramco Ras Tanura oil refinery. pic.twitter.com/eTmPGRFAY5

— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) March 2, 2026

Saudi Arabia released a statement in the state-run Saudi Press Agency stating that the damage was “limited” and that a fire was caused by the interception of two drones. The government said the drone attack and resulting missile interceptors did not cause civilian injuries.

The attack on Ras Tanura will ring alarm bells across the energy space because the complex is not just a refinery; it’s also part of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil hubs. It’s a central Persian Gulf terminal with a port able to handle the largest tankers, and Reuters notes that the refinery sits within a Gulf coast energy complex that also serves as a critical Saudi crude export hub. 

For the crude products market, the refinery is massive. Reuters notes Ras Tanura’s refining capacity at about 550,000 barrels per day, so any outage can tighten the supply of gasoline, diesel, and other refined products, especially across Gulf, Asian, and European markets. 

For the crude market, the bigger issue is the surrounding export infrastructure. Saudi Arabia is a leader in global flows, and EIA says Saudi crude and petroleum product exports made up 34% of OPEC crude exports and 26% of OPEC petroleum product exports in 2023. That means any downtime at these critical Saudi loading/refining hubs can quickly spark turmoil in global crude markets. 

“The attack on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery marks a significant escalation, with Gulf energy infrastructure now squarely in Iran’s sights,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said, who was quoted by Bloomberg. 

Soltvedt noted, “The attack is also likely to move Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Gulf states closer to joining US and Israeli military operations against Iran.”

Meanwhile…

In March 2024, David Asher, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute and former investigator into Covid origins at the State Department, penned a report titled “Navigating the New World Disorder: Economic Faultlines, Fissures, Fractures, and Failures.”

In the note, Asher pointed to a world that is in crisis, similar to the 1920s/30s.

More importantly, he warned that in the event Iran or Iran-backed militias begin targeting Saudi Arabia’s crude processing facilities, this could unleash a “Global oil shock could trigger a crisis ala 2007-2008.”

Important to note, and simultaneously, private credit markets are cracking, as we penned last night:

• Goldman Derivatives Desk: “Signs Of Fear & Contagion Are Everywhere, But It’s Credit That Is Scariest”

In the overnight, Brent crude futures surged 13% to above $82 a barrel. By 0730 ET, crude futures were trading around the $79 handle. Now, ICE gasoil futures surged 20% on news of the drone strike at Ras Tanura. 

By late 2024, Asher penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal titled “A Strategy for Striking Back at Iran“…

Asher’s roadmap (read here) of how the US would dismantle the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps played out this past weekend in Operation Epic Fury.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

A year of tariff disputes with the U.S., coupled with tighter climate regulations, has left deep marks on the German economy. The most visible consequence is a 17.8% collapse in German car exports to the United States last year. Overall exports to the U.S. fell 9.4% to €146.2 billion, while total trade volume dropped by 5%.

At the same time, China has returned as Germany’s top trading partner. Total trade rose 2.1%, but beneath the surface, tensions are severe: German exports to China fell 9.7% to €81.3 billion, while imports surged 8.8% to €170.6 billion. Germany has become a major importer of Chinese capital goods, especially in computing and electrical equipment, even overtaking Chinese companies in traditional machine-building sectors.

The diagnosis is clear: a severe structural ailment caused by years of disastrous policy frameworks. Germany is losing know-how—or has already ceded it to more dynamic global locations. The era when domestic social issues could be papered over by a strong economy is over. Germany’s social-industrial model, built on engineering excellence, social market principles, and partnership, is history.
The short-lived industrial rebound the government celebrates is merely an expensive, debt-financed stimulus. The only booming sector is defense, producing neither consumer goods nor real value for ordinary citizens. Here, lobby interests are served at the expense of future taxpayers, providing politicians with fleeting talking points for the 2026 election year.

Shifting the Strategic Matrix

Global trade shifts are restructuring the EU and Germany in fundamental ways. What once seemed manageable now reveals deep vulnerabilities. Europe’s energy dependence, worsened by political missteps, is striking: roughly 60% of its energy must be imported. This limits geopolitical maneuverability, particularly in the Middle East, and will likely force Russia’s reintegration into Europe’s energy mix over time.
Rhetoric from Brussels, including EU Foreign Affairs Chief Kaja Kallas, cannot override these realities. The idea that Europe can free itself solely through renewable expansion is naive; it risks an economic disaster reminiscent of Germany’s deindustrialization. Europe must invest heavily in available energy sources, develop domestic resources, and use existing gas and coal as a bridge, while modern nuclear technology is deployed to regain strategic energy sovereignty.

Trade policy exposes another harsh truth: Europe’s centralist economic model, coupled with its obsessive Net-Zero-Emissions approach—ignored globally—acts like abruptly slamming the brakes on a finely tuned high-speed engine. Regulatory overreach and fiscal burdens have eroded productivity, leaving citizens poorer while rivals like China exploit every advantage.

It is practically impossible to curb China’s heavily subsidized export engine through tariffs alone. Structural asymmetries are too great. China can deploy leverage at any time—for instance, restricting rare-earth exports—if Europe tries to shield its markets from Chinese dumping. U.S. deregulation and targeted investment in Germany’s key sectors, especially automotive and machinery, exacerbate the challenge. The ongoing outflow of direct investment, €60–100 billion annually, signals the historic failure of policies that have abandoned free markets in favor of moralistic central planning.

Europe must break free from its internal constraints, return to market-based principles, align more closely with the U.S., and anchor the future of European culture and economy in the Western Hemisphere. Reintegration of Russia into the energy equation is equally essential for a realistic global perspective.