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Trump Administration To Lobby Ukraine To Lower Age Of Conscription To 18 Years Old

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Trump Administration To Lobby Ukraine To Lower Age Of Conscription To 18 Years Old

Submitted by blueapples on X

On the heels of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President Of The United States, emerging news regarding a rapidly advancing ceasefire between Israel and Hamas offers an auspicious omen of his new administration’s forthcoming foreign policy. During his presidential campaign, Trump was replete with political ammunition to attack his opponent’s administration with. The mass geopolitical instability caused by the onset of multiple theaters of war that unfolded under Biden’s watch became one of the core talking points of his rhetoric. While his ability to bring a resolution to the war in Gaza was one campaign promise Trump made to distinguish himself as a candidate who had the respect of world leaders that Biden had lost, the war in Ukraine took centerstage of his future foreign policy commitments. Before Trump had even received the Republican nomination, he assured his supporters that he would negotiate an end to the war between Russia in Ukraine in just 24 hours. However, the change of tone from Trump’s camp about the conflict in Ukraine just one week ahead of his inauguration comes in stark juxtaposition to the promises he made on the campaign trail.

According to Trump’s incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Trump’s new administration will lobby for Ukraine to lower its minimum age of conscription from 25 to just 18 years old. In the lame-duck period of the Biden Administration, its State Department urged Ukraine to take the same measure in an effort to post more troops to the front lines of the war. This came just months after Ukraine lowered the minimum age for conscription from 27 to 25 years old. Despite doing so, making more bodies available for Zelenskyy’s meat grinder was not enough to turn the tide of the rapidly deteriorating Ukrainian war effort. The futility of that effort led to the Biden administration seeking to lower the age even further drastically to just 18, a request so extreme that it was even rebuked by the Zelenskyy regime.

The decision of Zelenskyy to reject the Biden administration’s proposal to lower Ukraine’s age of conscription was likely influenced by the crossroads the Ukrainian President found himself at with a transition of power in the United States underway. An incoming administration that took an entirely different political posture on the conflict required Zelenskyy to think with a more long-term oriented strategy than just acquiescing to the US’ demands as a proxy against Russia in order to continue to receive limitless military aid in order to curry the favor of President Trump. Yet before Trump could even be sworn in as the nation’s 47th president, Zelenskyy’s efforts to align himself with that new administration have already proven to be a poor political calculation as it seems he’ll be treated as a puppet of the interests driving the war with Russia all the same.

In an interview with ABC News, Waltz spoke about the lack of manpower Ukraine has on the front lines necessitating the need for the deployment of more troops despite the absence of available manpower:

“The other thing we’re going to need to see is really stabilizing things on the battlefield, and one of the things we’ll be asking of the Ukrainians is, they have real manpower issues. Their draft age right now is 26 [sic] years old, not 18. I don’t think a lot of people realize that they could generate hundreds of thousands of new soldiers. So when we hear about morale problems, when we hear about issues on the front line, look, if the Ukrainians have asked the entire world to be all in for democracy, we need them to be all in for democracy.”

Waltz’s remarks echo the empty rhetoric of Antony Blinken’s State Department as he framed the war in Ukraine as an existential fight for the future of democracy as if he was writing Democratic talking points to attack Trump for Biden’s re-election campaign. Although Waltz spoke to the measure being integral to stabilizing the Ukrainian front in the interest of furthering the country’s position to negotiate an end to the war, his tone continues the trend of increased bellicosity coming from the second Trump administration.

Trump has drawn criticism for those hawkish calls following the announcement of several of his key cabinet positions and advisors. The likes of the nominees for Secretary Of State and US Ambassador To The United Nations in Marco Rubio and Elise Stefanik respectively brought the high that followed Trump’s re-election crashing down to Earth as even his most ardent supporters rued those nominations as a sign of neoconservative infiltration of his new administration. Waltz’ appointment as National Security Adviser was one of the first decisions that spawned that sense of pessimism.

The effort to lower Ukraine’s age of conscription forecasts a continuation of the bloodshed in Eastern Europe that the political establishment Trump railed against has supported in the years between his two terms. Despite constantly lamenting that the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Ukraine was putting the world on the precipice of nuclear war, Trump’s foreign policy appears to be following in his predecessor’s misguided footsteps. The departure from his promise to put an immediate end to the conflict follows a similar betrayal of a core campaign promise from another high profile nominee to Trump’s cabinet in Tulsi Gabbard.

Gabbard, the presumptive Director Of National Intelligence committed an equally stunning betrayal of trust when she stated she would continue to enforce Section 702 of FISA, a law she previously stated that she was diametrically opposed to. While optimists unwilling to accept the major flip-flop and political analysts alike rationalized that Gabbard had changed her position on FISA to secure the necessary votes needed to be confirmed as the next DNI, Waltz’s position of National Security Advisory doesn’t require the same Senate approval.

This means that Waltz’s lobbying of Ukraine to lower its age of conscription is not a mere matter of political pragmatism. Instead, it is a much more foreboding example of how the concerns Trump’s supporters have about the direction his second administration is going in following the appointments of politicians aligned with the neocon axis of power have been validated. Those decisions foreshadow that Trump has not corrected the one self-admitted mistake he made during his first term in office by hiring the wrong people to positions of enormous power. If that was the undoing of his first administration, the failure to learn from those mistakes casts serious doubt on how much of what Trump has promised to do to Make America Great Again during his second presidency will actually be achieved.

[ZH: Arguably, Waltz’s comments are more ‘America First’ with the implicit questioning of why we should send Americans into harm’s way to defend Ukraine when Ukraine itself has 1000s of 18-25 year olds who are not fighting. In other words – raise the costs for Ukrainians until they alone decide they have had enough of being hijacked by a corrupt regime (and their Western backers) in a proxy war that is, for now, un-ending.]

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 14:25

After Nuking Fact-Checkers, Dialing Back DEI, Zuckerberg Plans 5% Job Cuts At Meta

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After Nuking Fact-Checkers, Dialing Back DEI, Zuckerberg Plans 5% Job Cuts At Meta

One week after Trump’s longtime friend, UFC CEO Dana White, joined Facebook’s board, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg nuked “politically biased” fact-checkers from Facebook and Instagram in favor of a system similar to Elon Musk’s Community Notes on X and dialed back the company’s DEI unit, a new internal memo obtained by Bloomberg reveals that the company plans to reduce headcount by about 5%, equivalent to several thousand workers. 

“I’ve decided to raise the bar on performance management and move out low-performers faster,” Zuckerberg said in the memo to an internal message board. 

He continued: “We typically manage out people who aren’t meeting expectations over the course of a year, but now we’re going to do more extensive performance-based cuts during this cycle – – with the intention of backfilling these roles in 2025.” 

The coming layoffs continue Zuck’s 2023 “year of efficiency” to eliminate 10,000 positions. He said 2025 will be an “intense year, and I want to make sure we have the best people on our teams.” 

Full memo: 

Meta is working on building some of the most important technologies in the world – – AI, glasses as the next computing platform, and the future of social media. This is going to be an intense year, and I want to make sure we have the best people on our teams. I’ve decided to raise the bar on performance management and move out low-performers faster. We typically manage out people who aren’t meeting expectations over the course of a year, but now we’re going to do more extensive performance-based cuts during this cycle – – with the intention of backfilling these roles in 2025. We won’t manage out everyone who didn’t meet expectations for the last period if we’re optimistic about their future performance, and for those we do let go we’ll provide generous severance in line with what we’ve provided with previous cuts. We’ll follow up with more guidance for managers ahead of calibrations. People who are impacted will be notified on February 10 — or later for those outside the US. Letting people go is never easy. But I’m confident this will strengthen our teams and help us build leading technology to enable the future of human connection.

Last week, Zuckerberg not only eliminated “politically biased” fact-checkers from Facebook and Instagram but also scaled back the company’s diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts, signaling that wokeism and censorship are no longer the main priorities for the social media giant.

As of the third quarter of 2024, Meta employed about 72.4k people, so a 5% reduction would be around 3,600 jobs. The bull market in job additions has been over since the end of 2022. 

What Zuck needs to do…

Zuck nuking biased fact-checkers has reportedly sent “morale for queer staff into the shitter.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 14:05

Visualizing America’s $1.7 Trillion Insurance Industry

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Visualizing America’s $1.7 Trillion Insurance Industry

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu, breaks down the total market capitalization of America’s insurance industry, using data from Companiesmarketcap.com.

As of Jan. 7, 2025, UnitedHealth Group is the country’s most valuable insurance company, with a market cap of $473 billion.

Data and Key Takeaways

The data we used to create this graphic is listed in the table below. Note that this ranking includes publicly traded companies only.

Rank Name Market Cap
1 UnitedHealth $473,256,000,000
2 Progressive $141,930,000,000
3 Marsh McLennan $103,126,000,000
4 Elevance Health $88,304,689,152
5 Cigna $77,863,362,560
6 Gallagher $69,887,385,600
7 MetLife $56,875,376,640
8 Travelers $54,865,952,768
9 Allstate $49,263,951,872
10 AIG $45,279,391,744
11 Prudential $42,419,859,456
12 Humana $32,175,022,080
13 Centene $31,609,597,952
14 The Hartford $31,603,916,800
15 Brown & Brown $28,901,777,408
16 Cincinnati Financial $22,245,187,584
17 Markel $21,944,627,200
18 Berkley $21,911,468,032
19 Erie Insurance $21,034,135,552
20 Principal $17,909,245,952
21 Corebridge Financial $17,674,076,160
22 Molina Healthcare $16,958,656,512
23 Fidelity National Financial $15,400,402,944
24 Equitable $15,387,979,776
25 RGA $14,604,749,824
26 Unum $13,398,243,328
27 CNA $12,846,034,944
28 U-Haul $12,048,060,416
29 AFG $11,094,878,208
30 Assurant $10,616,492,032
31 Kinsale $9,797,028,864
32 Globe Life $9,359,039,488
33 Primerica $9,209,505,792
34 Old Republic $8,666,577,920
35 RLI $7,162,358,784
36 Jackson $6,637,221,376
37 First American $6,233,802,240
38 Selective Insurance $5,529,822,208
39 Hanover $5,503,021,056
40 Lincoln Financial $5,413,500,928
41 Other $73,980,086,936

It’s worth noting that prior to the Dec. 2024 killing of CEO Brian Thompson of its largest subsidiary (UnitedHealthcare), UnitedHealth’s valuation was above $500 billion.

As we highlighted in a previous graphic, the company is the world’s eighth largest company by revenue, bringing in $372 billion during its 2024 fiscal year.

UnitedHealth has made several major acquisitions in recent years, with one example being LHC Group, a provider of in-home healthcare services, for $5.4 billion.

Progressive Gains

The second largest company in the U.S. insurance industry is Progressive, which is known for its popular ads featuring “Flo”, a fictional saleswoman.

Rather than health insurance, Progressive focuses on vehicle insurance (personal and commercial).

Shares of Progressive (Ticker: PGR) have climbed 230% over the past five years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s return of 81%.

Not all insurance companies are rising, though. Shares of Elevance Health, #4 on this ranking, fell over 20% in 2024 after the company reduced its forward earnings guidance.

If you enjoy graphics like these, check out the Markets section on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 13:25

Special Session To ‘Trump-Proof’ California Postponed Amid Ongoing Wildfires

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Special Session To ‘Trump-Proof’ California Postponed Amid Ongoing Wildfires

A California special legislative session to counter the policies of the incoming Trump Administration, originally scheduled for Jan. 14, has been postponed.

Staff from the office of Assemblyman Jesse Gabriel, chair of the Assembly’s budget committee, confirmed on Monday that the postponement was due to the ongoing wildfires ravaging the Los Angeles area.

As Kimberley Hayek reports for The Epoch Times, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday also expanded the scope of the special session to include expediting funding for the disaster, which has killed at least 24 people and destroyed more than 12,000 homes and other structures.

Newsom is requesting $2.5 billion in additional funding for the ongoing emergency response and to increase preparedness, as well as support the reopening of schools closed due to the fires.

California state lawmakers convened the special session on Dec. 2 as part of what’s been called an effort to “Trump-proof” the state ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. The goal of the session is to push back against federal policies affecting environmental protections, abortion, illegal immigrants, and others.

Newsom called for the session in early November with a proclamation requesting lawmakers provide the resources necessary for possible litigation versus the federal government.

“We’re preparing for Trump 2.0, and his rhetoric has only heightened,” Newsom previously told The Epoch Times.

Toward this end, state Sen. Scott Wiener, chair of the Senate’s budget committee, introduced Senate Bill X1-1 to secure $25 million for the California Department of Justice, $10 million for county and city attorneys, and $25 million to cover local communities’ legal costs.

Wiener did not reply to The Epoch Times’ request for comment by publication time.

Trump, Newsom Spar on Social Media

The special session’s delay follows efforts by Newsom to reach out to Trump via a letter inviting him on a tour of the fire damage in Southern California. The governor, however, said Trump has not replied or returned his calls.

In the open letter to Trump posted on Jan. 10 on social media platform X, Newsom warned of extreme winds expected to continue this week, threatening life and property.

“As you prepare to assume the presidency once more, I invite you to come to California again–to meet with the Americans affected by these fires, see the devastation firsthand, and join me and others in thanking the heroic firefighters and first responders who are putting their lives on the line,” he wrote.

Newsom said he doesn’t want to politicize a natural disaster and has accused Trump of doing so.

“The hundreds of thousands of Americans—displaced from their homes and fearful for the future—deserve to see us all working together in their best interests, not politicizing a human tragedy and spreading disinformation from the sidelines,” Newsom posted on X.

Meanwhile, Trump has called on Newsom to resign. “One of the best and most beautiful parts of the United States of America is burning down to the ground,” he wrote in a Truth Social post Jan. 8.

In another post, Trump also said that the fires in Los Angeles could go down as among the worst in the history of the United States.

“In many circles, they’re doubting whether insurance companies will even have enough money to pay for this catastrophe,” the president-elect said.

Trump also criticized the lack of water in fire hydrants, impeding firefighters ability to combat the Palisades fire in western Los Angeles. Newsom has opened an investigation to look into the hydrant failure, as well as the lack of water supplies in a nearby reservoir.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 12:45

Biden Brags About “Handing Over” A Stronger USA Than When He Took Office

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Biden Brags About “Handing Over” A Stronger USA Than When He Took Office

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Joe Biden has been completely eviscerated online for a post on X claiming that the country is stronger now than when he took office four years ago.

Here’s what Biden, or more accurately his handlers, posted.

Nice use of the wind metaphor while winds are responsible for vast swathes of California burning.

The country is literally on fire, there is no border, it costs $9 for some eggs, hundreds of billions are being sent overseas while Americans whose houses have burned to the ground are being given $700, and on and on.

As JD Vance noted yesterday, Biden is leaving behind a dumpster fire.

Read the room Joe.

Someone fixed it for Joe.

Hold on America. He’s coming.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 12:25

Hamas Accepts US-Mediated Ceasefire, Netanyahu Convenes Urgent Security Cabinet Meeting

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Hamas Accepts US-Mediated Ceasefire, Netanyahu Convenes Urgent Security Cabinet Meeting

Officials have told the Associated Press on Tuesday that Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for Gaza ceasefire and hostage release, a day after President Biden said the sides are “on the brink” of reaching a breakthrough agreement.

This indeed may be the closest the negotiating sides have come to reaching a deal, after more than a year of failed attempts. “The ball is now in Hamas’s court. If Hamas accepts, the deal is ready to be concluded and implement it,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said, strongly suggesting that Israel has already accepted. Blinken emphasized the deal is “ready to be concluded and implemented.“

However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office has not confirmed acceptance, and there’s been frustration in the past over last minute additions from the Israeli side which has blown up draft agreements. But a final Netanyahu decision is said to be just hours away, and a deal could be proclaimed by Wednesday morning.

Via Reuters

Blinken described that American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators submitted the final draft hostage deal to Israel and Hamas on Sunday, and there have been optimistic statements ever since, especially in Biden’s final foreign policy address on Monday.

Blinken in fresh remarks stressed, “I believe we will get a ceasefire. Whether we get there in the remaining days of our administration, or after January 20, the deal will follow closely the terms of the agreement that President Biden put forward last May and that our administration rallied the world behind.”

Blinken explained that “at different moments, different parties have made it hard to finalize an agreement or events have delayed or derailed its completion.”

“For the past several months, Hamas has played the spoiler, but over the past several weeks, our intensive efforts have brought us to the brink of full and final agreement,” he said. Of course, the Palestinian side has laid blame squarely on the Israelis.

An urgent meeting of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, set to convene tonight, could give final approval for the deal:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold an urgent meeting with top security officials Tuesday night, according to an Israeli official.

The security consultation will be about a potential deal that would release the hostages, the official told CNN. Netanyahu spokesperson Omer Dostri told CNN the meeting will be a “status [of the deal] discussion.”

Trump’s team has an envoy present for these negotiations, but as Times of Israel reports, some Israeli hardline political factions are trying to convince the president-elect, who enters the White House is less than a week, to reject the deal and instead press for Israeli sovereignty over all Palestinian territories:

Religious Zionism lawmaker Ohad Tal calls on US President-elect Donald Trump to oppose the hostage deal that his own envoy Steve Witkoff is currently working to finalize in Doha along with US President Joe Biden’s top aide Brett McGurk.

“The current deal, which was pushed by the Biden administration, is a horrible deal that will roll back all of Israel’s achievements of the past year,” he says at a prayer breakfast at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

Tal says that Trump, “more than any other leader in the world,” knows how “to differentiate between good and evil and I call on you from here from this important podium not to support a deal that will leave this total evil of Hamas in power; not to support a deal that will leave back the vast majority of the hostages.”

Calling Trump’s recent electoral win a “spiritual victory for the values we all treasure,” Tal criticizes “wokeism” and says that the incoming administration provides “an opportunity to apply full Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, the heart of our ancestral homeland.”

As for the hostages, there are still nearly 100 unaccounted for, but at least 30 have been confirmed deceased by Israeli officials, and the fates of many more remain uncertain.

“Israel believes that most of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal are alive, a senior Israeli official told reporters on Monday, but the bodies of dead captives will also likely be among those released,” CNN reports. “The first phase would take place over an initial 42-day ceasefire.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 12:05

American Airlines Mismanaged Employees’ Retirement Funds By Investing In ESG, Court Rules

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American Airlines Mismanaged Employees’ Retirement Funds By Investing In ESG, Court Rules

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A district court has ruled that American Airlines failed to prioritize the financial interests of its employees’ retirement funds by enabling fund managers to pursue environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments.

An American Airlines passenger plane is parked at a gate at Philadelphia International Airport in Philadelphia on Dec. 13, 2024. Photo by Daniel SLIM / AFP

The judgment came as part of a 2023 lawsuit filed against American Airlines and the company’s Employee Benefits Committee. The class action alleges that the defendants violated their duty of loyalty under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act, which requires that fiduciaries managing retirement investments must act in the best financial interest of the participants.

Defendants are alleged to have mismanaged their employee’s retirement assets—401(k) plans—when they hired investment managers pursuing ESG policies to handle the funds, especially BlackRock.

ESG looks at nonmonetary factors while making investment decisions. This includes a company’s carbon footprint and chemical emissions, how a business addresses LGBT interests and other political initiatives, and whether a company adopts such programs in its hiring practices.

The plaintiffs said that BlackRock pursued an agenda to convert their retirement plans’ core index portfolios into ESG funds and that BlackRock’s actions harm retirement plan participants because such investments pursued socio-political outcomes rather than financial returns.

On Friday, Judge Reed O’Connor from the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas agreed with the plaintiffs, saying “the facts compellingly demonstrated that Defendants breached their fiduciary duty by failing to loyally act solely in the retirement plan’s best financial interests.”

The defendants allowed “their corporate interests, as well as BlackRock’s ESG interests, to influence management of the plan,” the court said.

BlackRock had managed roughly $11 billion worth of assets under American Airlines’ employee retirement plan by the end of 2022, according to the court document.

The case was filed by Bryan P. Spence, an American Airlines pilot who is a participant in the company’s retirement plan.

The judge said that ESG investments often underperform traditional investments by roughly 10 percent.

“For instance, when compared to the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 indices in 2023, ESG funds dramatically underperformed non-ESG funds, with ESG-related funds returning about 8 percent compared to about 14 percent for both indices,” the court said.

“BlackRock managed billions of dollars in plan assets at the same time it owned 5 percent of American stock,” making it one of the largest shareholders in the company, it said. In addition, BlackRock had also funded roughly $400 million in the airline’s corporate debt when the company was going through financial challenges, the court document said.

According to Yahoo Finance, Blackrock currently owns 8.31 percent of American Airlines, with more than 54 million shares. The largest institutional shareholder was Vanguard, with 9.44 percent.

The court observed that BlackRock is known to have pursued ESG criteria as a policy and that the defendants pursued such a course of action because of the “outsized influence” BlackRock had on the company.

“For example, as a large company who consumes copious amount of fossil fuels, American was potentially susceptible to a proxy fight of its own by failing to comply with BlackRock’s climate-related demands,” the court said

Defendants endorsed ESG goals of those tasked with overseeing employees’ retirement funds, had conflicts of interest with BlackRock, and also upheld a “corporate commitment” to ESG, the judge wrote, while finding that American Airlines breached its obligatory duties toward retirement plan participants.

The Epoch Times reached out to American Airlines for comment but received no reply by publication time.

BlackRock and ESG

While BlackRock has aggressively promoted ESG in recent years, it began to publicly pivot away from it in 2023 after widespread backlash.

In June 2023, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during a speech that he was “not going to use the word ESG because it’s been misused by the far left and the far right,” noting that he was “ashamed of being part of this conversation.”

At the time, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis told The Epoch Times that Fink seemed to have “caught some heat from some folks.”

“Maybe he’s needed to try to find some way to camouflage his messaging because there’s definitely been some criticism,” Patronis said.

In his 2023 annual letter to investors, Fink called oil and gas “vital” to global energy demand, shifting from his earlier attempts to promote a climate agenda and denounce fossil fuels.

Prior to the October 2022 letter, BlackRock was downgraded by Swiss multinational investment bank UBS, with an analyst saying there was “environmental pressure to earnings and risk from the firm’s ESG positioning.”

Last year, BlackRock pulled out of the U.N. Climate Action 100+ coalition.

In March 2024, Mississippi issued an administrative order charging BlackRock with misleading investors about its support for ESG investments, thus violating the state’s securities laws.

“Investment companies will not push their political agenda on Mississippians, especially through fraudulent and deceptive means,” Michael Watson, Mississippi’s secretary of state, said in a statement at the time.

“All citizens should have the opportunity to make informed and educated decisions when investing their hard-earned money.”

Earlier this month, a BlackRock spokesperson told The Epoch Times that it was pulling out of the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative (NZAM), a U.N.-backed project with more than 325 signatories that, combined, manage more than $57.5 trillion in assets. The pact aims to achieve “net-zero” greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century.

According to the spokesperson, being part of the pact led to confusion regarding the company’s practices, with public officials making legal inquiries into the business. Despite its exit from NZAM, BlackRock continues to back what it calls sustainable investing.

Kevin Stocklin and Tom Ozimek contributed to the report.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 11:45

Lilly Shares Tumble Most In Years On Sagging Obesity Drug Demand

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Lilly Shares Tumble Most In Years On Sagging Obesity Drug Demand

Shares of Eli Lilly & Co. were hammered in the first 30 minutes of the US cash session, marking the steepest intraday decline since March 15, 2021.

The selloff was triggered after an update by Lilly that announced preliminary fourth-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street analysts (via Bloomberg Consensus), driven mainly by weaker-than-expected sales of its blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs.

In a news release, the Indianapolis-based pharmaceutical company stated that it expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $13.5 billion, $400 million below the low end of its previous estimate issued in October. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecasted $14 billion, while FactSet analysts expected $13.93 billion.

Both Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity came in below estimates. Lilly revealed that the market for the drugs expanded slower than previously forecasted in the fourth quarter and inventory was lower than expected. The company did note that other drugs performed inline with its expectations.

In an interview at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in December, Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said drug purchases usually ramp up at the end of the year. 

“But we did not see that,” Ricks said, adding, “Our guidance relied on a bit of a bump up, which we had seen the last four or five years in December. It just didn’t occur.”

For 2025, Lilly expects revenue between $58 billion and $61 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of around $58.7 billion. 

Meanwhile, Goldman’s GLP-1 Winner Basket is underperforming its Loser Basket, reflecting the sagging obesity drug bubble. This shift comes ahead of Trump 2.0, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. likely to head the Department of Health and Human Services. 

Lilly expects to release full quarterly results in February. 

CEO Ricks will participate in a fireside chat at the JPM Healthcare Conference later today at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time (more about that here).

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 11:25

TikTok Dismisses Bloomberg’s Report Of Potential Sale To Musk As “Pure Fiction”

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TikTok Dismisses Bloomberg’s Report Of Potential Sale To Musk As “Pure Fiction”

Bloomberg is relying upon unnamed sources “familiar with the matter” as anchor sources in an overnight report about Elon Musk potentially acquiring the US operations of Chinese video-sharing platform TikTok. The company faces a Sunday deadline to find a US buyer or risk a ban.

The report said: 

Senior Chinese officials had already begun to debate contingency plans for TikTok as part of an expansive discussion on how to work with Donald Trump’s administration, one of which involves Musk, said the people, asking not to be identified revealing confidential discussions. 

. . . 

Under one scenario that’s been discussed by the Chinese government, Musk’s X — the former Twitter — would take control of TikTok US and run the businesses together, the people said. With more than 170 million users in the US, TikTok could bolster X’s efforts to attract advertisers. Musk also founded a separate artificial intelligence company, xAI, that could benefit from the huge amounts of data generated from TikTok. 

Following Bloomberg’s report citing anonymous sources, a TikTok spokesperson told BBC News the whole story about China considering to sell the video-sharing platform to Musk as “pure fiction.” 

“We can’t be expected to comment on pure fiction,” the spokesperson told the British media outlet. 

BBC noted, “TikTok has repeatedly said that it will not sell its US operation.”

On X, Musk responded with laughing emojis to Autism Capital’s video of angry white liberals melting down in a forest, referring to them as the potential response of TikTok’s audience if Musk bought the Chinese video-sharing platform. 

In April of 2024, Musk wrote on X, “In my opinion, TikTok should not be banned in the USA, even though such a ban may benefit the 𝕏 platform,”  adding, “Doing so would be contrary to freedom of speech and expression. It is not what America stands for.”

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Mandeep Singh and Damian Reimertz recently estimated that TikTok’s US operations could be valued between $40 and $50 billion. Recall that Musk paid $44 billion for Twitter in 2022. 

President-elect Trump, who takes office next Monday, one day after TikTok’s deadline to sell or risk a ban, has sought to delay the ban on the video-sharing platform to allow time for negotiations. Trump has previously stated that he wants to “save” the app.

Also, the Supreme Court is set to rule on the constitutionality of a law that would ban the platform from the US if the TikTok’s owner ByteDance does not find a buyer by Sunday. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 08:20

Return Of Strong Winds Spark “Dangerous Situation” Across Fire-Ravaged Palisades

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Return Of Strong Winds Spark “Dangerous Situation” Across Fire-Ravaged Palisades

One week after the fires in Los Angeles County began, the blazes remain out of control, scorching nearly 40,000 acres and leveling entire neighborhoods. On Tuesday, winds are expected to gust between 45 and 70 mph, accompanied by dry air, significantly increasing the risk of fire spread.

The National Weather Service has issued “Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warnings” for L.A. and Ventura counties through Wednesday evening, warning that “this setup is about as bad as it gets.”

Strong gusts could derail any progress made by firefighters early this week across two of the main fires, the Palisades and Eaton fires. The blazes have burned upwards of 40,000 and leveled entire neighborhoods and burned more than 12,000 structures. At least 24 people have died, with the death toll expected to rise. 

Here’s the latest update on the two main fires (courtesy of the L.A. Times): 

Palisades Fire:

Burned 23,713 acres and numerous homes, businesses and landmarks in Pacific Palisades and westward along Pacific Coast Highway, toward Malibu. As of Monday morning, the fire was 14% contained, up from 11% early Sunday. Many parts of Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Calabasas, Brentwood and Encino are under evacuation orders or warnings. More than 12,000 structures remain threatened. Santa Monica has downgraded its mandatory evacuation orders to warnings. Officials estimate that more than 5,300 structures, including many homes, have been damaged or destroyed.

Eaton Fire:

Burned 14,117 acres and many structures in Altadena and Pasadena. As of Monday morning, the fire was 33% contained, up from 27% early Sunday. Officials say 7,000 structures have been damaged in the fire. Most of Altadena was under an evacuation order, as was unincorporated Kinneloa Mesa. In Pasadena, a mandatory evacuation order was in place in the northern half of the neighborhood of Hastings Ranch. In Sierra Madre, mandatory evacuations were in effect in some areas north of Grand View Avenue, and voluntary evacuations were in place in other portions of the city.

As of Tuesday morning, the Palisades and Eaton Fires remained largely uncontrolled with low containment.

Fire Map (L.A. Times): 

The latest losses for the insurance industry could be monumental, with some figures pointing to $30 billion, if not more. 

Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs analysts have published new insured loss estimates that surpass JPMorgan’s predictions of $20 billion from last week. 

Goldman analysts believe estimated insured losses could be between $10 and $30 billion, with the figure for uninsured losses north of $40 billion. 

Wells Fargo analyst noted that home insurance providers Allstate, Chubb, American International Group, and Travelers are some of the most exposed insurers of the fires.

Mercury General and Cincinnati Financial are the most exposed insurers… 

On Monday morning, L.A. residents sued Energy company Edison International for its alleged role in igniting at least one of the wildfires. 

Bloomberg reported, “The lawsuit is on behalf of a group of homeowners, renters, business owners and others with properties destroyed by the Eaton Fire in the Pasadena area,” adding, “The suit alleges a Southern California Edison pole holding power lines was the cause of the blaze that leveled the town of Altadena.”

By the evening, property owners in Palisades sued the city of Los Angeles’ electric and water utility for not supplying enough water to firefighters. The plaintiffs claim that a reservoir in the area was drained, causing low pressure in fire hydrants.

Latest Zero Hedge headlines:

Other headlines via L.A. Times, WaPo, Bloomberg, etc… 

  • L.A. Times: Crews battle brush fire in Oxnard as Santa Ana winds sweep through the region

  • WaPo: Los Angeles County district attorney charges 9 people with looting

  • WaPo: Republicans say they want to put conditions on wildfire aid to California

  • BBG: LA Arrests Mount Over Looting, Curfews in Fire Evacuation Zones

  • BBG: L.A. City Utility Sued Over Water Shortage for Palisades Fire

  • BBG: L.A. Wildfires Insurance Cost Estimates Spike to $30 Billion

Meanwhile…

Arson?

. . .  

Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/14/2025 – 08:00