On Friday, President Donald Trump extended a temporary waiver of the century-old Jones Act (Merchant Marine Act of 1920) for an additional 90 days. The move allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport fuel, oil, fertilizer, and other essential goods between U.S. ports, aiming to stabilize domestic supply chains and ease price pressures stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and resulting disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

White House Assistant Press Secretary Taylor Rogers announced the extension via social media, stating: “President Trump issued a 90-day extension to the Jones Act waiver. New data compiled since the initial waiver was issued revealed that significantly more supply was able to reach U.S. ports faster. This waiver extension provides both certainty and stability for the U.S. and global economies.” Rogers added that the administration has taken multiple steps to mitigate short-term energy market disruptions and ensure vital products continue flowing.

President Trump issued a 90-day extension to the Jones Act waiver.

New data compiled since the initial waiver was issued revealed that significantly more supply was able to reach U.S. ports faster.

This waiver extension provides both certainty and stability for the U.S. and…

— Taylor Rogers (@TaylorRogers47) April 24, 2026

This builds on the initial 60-day waiver issued on March 17 (effective until mid-May), which White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt described at the time as “another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market” amid the conflict.

What Is the Jones Act?

The Jones Act requires that goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-owned, U.S.-flagged, and primarily U.S.-crewed. Enacted in 1920 as Section 27 of the Merchant Marine Act, it was designed to protect and rebuild the American maritime industry following World War I, ensuring a domestic fleet capable of supporting national defense and commerce during emergencies.

Critics argue it limits vessel availability and raises shipping costs, while supporters say it preserves U.S. jobs, shipbuilding capacity, and strategic maritime independence. Waivers are rare and typically granted only for national defense or emergencies, often following requests from the Department of Defense or in response to natural disasters.

Historical precedents include waivers during World War I and II, the Korean War era, Hurricanes Katrina (2005), and other crises like the 2012 Alaska fuel emergency. More recent examples occurred after Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017.

The waiver stems directly from the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began on February 28, 2026. U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting Iranian retaliation with missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, strikes on U.S. bases and allies, and – critically – the closure (or severe restriction) of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20-25% of global seaborne oil and significant liquefied natural gas passes, became a major chokepoint. Iran’s actions, combined with a subsequent U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports starting in mid-April, led to a collapse in tanker traffic (down over 90% at times), global oil price spikes (from ~$70/barrel pre-war to averages above $100 in March), fuel shortages in parts of Asia, and ripple effects on fertilizer and agricultural supply chains worldwide.

These disruptions exacerbated domestic U.S. fuel price pressures, prompting the administration to act on the Jones Act to reroute more Gulf Coast oil and refined products to other U.S. coasts via foreign tankers.

Impacts and Early Data

Early results from the initial 60-day waiver appear positive according to the White House. Officials report that foreign tankers moved approximately 9 million barrels of oil, boosting effective domestic shipping capacity by about 70% and accelerating deliveries to ports and refineries. Rogers and other spokespeople emphasized that “the data reveals more supply has reached U.S. ports faster,” helping mitigate cost increases.

The 90-day extension (expected to run from mid-May into mid-August) aims to provide longer-term certainty as the Iran conflict and Hormuz situation remain fluid, with fragile ceasefires and ongoing diplomatic efforts (including talks in Pakistan) showing limited progress.

The decision has drawn sharp criticism from the U.S. maritime industry. The American Maritime Partnership called the extension of what it termed a “historically long and ineffective” waiver “an affront to U.S. workers,” arguing it undermines domestic shipbuilding and seafarer jobs.

Proponents of the Jones Act maintain that repeated waivers erode the law’s protective intent, while energy and logistics groups see the temporary relief as a pragmatic response to an extraordinary crisis.

US equity futures jumped to a new all time high, reversing modest overnight losses, and oil tumbled to session lows on reports that Iran is sending a delegation to Pakistan today for talks, boosting hopes of ceasefire extension or more. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad at 22:00 local time (1:00pm ET), the NY Post reports. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rallied as much a 0.6% to a new all time high of 7,190, reversing a modest loss in overnight trading as Brent tumbled from $107 to around $104 on the report. Tech shares rallied on the back of strong results from Intel and SAP SE, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.3% and on track for a fourth straight weekly gain with most Mag 7 stocks trading higher. INTC added +29% amid surprises in both earnings and sales across all major businesses; the move will almost certainly extend the gains for semiconductor stocks to 18 straight days. The dollar slid 0.2%.  Brent erased gains to fall 1.2% to below $104 a barrel while WTI dropped $1.2 and is now at $94.68 after trading as high as $98 earlier. Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points at 4.31%. Metals are mixed, gold rebound above $4700; ags are higher. Today’s macro data include the final UMich consumer sentiment survey. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Microsoft +1.2%, Amazon +0.9%, Alphabet +0.6%, Meta +0.6%, Apple -0.1%, Tesla +0.9%)

• Comfort Systems USA (FIX) climbs 7% after the HVAC company reported revenue that beat estimates.
• Coursera (COUR) falls 10% after the online education company’s first-quarter profit missed the average analyst estimate and the midpoint of its full-year revenue forecast also undershot expectations.
• Edwards Lifesciences (EW) gains 2% after the medical devices firm reported a first quarter adjusted earnings per share beat, and boosted its sales forecast for the full year.
• HCA Healthcare (HCA) falls 7% after the health-care services company reported net income for the first quarter that met the average analyst estimate.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) climbs 4% after JPMorgan initiated the stock with an overweight rating, citing improving vitals for the telehealth firm.
• Intel (INTC) shares are up 27% — and on track to close at an all-time high if gains hold through regular trading — after the chipmaker delivered a blockbuster sales forecast.
• MaxLinear (MXL) jumps 43% after the semiconductor company’s first-quarter results and second-quarter revenue forecast were both better than expected.
• Organon & Co. (OGN) climbs 21% after the Economic Times reported that Sun Pharma is planning to submit a binding offer of $13 billion to acquire the US-based pharmaceutical company.
• Procter & Gamble (PG) gains 3% after the consumer-products maker reported stronger-than-expected results for its latest quarter, driven by growth in the beauty category.
• SLB (SLB) falls 3% after the oilfield services company reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that matched the average analyst estimate. The company also agreed to buy S&P Global Geoscience & Petroleum Engineering portfolio.
• World Kinect Corp. (WKC) rises 22% after the fuel-services company reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

In corporate news, DeepSeek rolled out preview versions of a new flagship AI model a year after upending Silicon Valley, calling it the most powerful open-source platform in a challenge to rivals from OpenAI to Anthropic. Cognition AI is said to be in early talks to raise a new round of funding that would more than double its valuation to $25 billion. Mercedes-Benz is assessing potential cybersecurity risks linked to Anthropic’s Mythos model, signaling that concerns over threats from AI bots are spreading beyond the financial sector into the industrial economy. SoftBank plans to transform part of its Osaka factory into a major battery production line to power its AI data centers. President Trump said he is considering having the US purchase Spirit Aviation, saying it could be a potentially good investment for the federal government. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby on deals, fuel price spikes and turf wars is the subject of today’s

Sentiment was boosted this morning after Pakistani officials familiar with the matter said Iran’s foreign minister was expected in Islamabad on Friday (around 10pm local time), with a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington expected. S&P futures jumped to a record high just under 7,200 as Brent erased gains to fall 1.2% to below $104 a barrel; the dollar slid 0.2%. Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points at 4.31%. Still, we’ve seen such premature hope fizzle before; meanwhile in the Middle East, a US-sanctioned supertanker laden with Iranian oil appeared to be attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, with traffic through the waterway otherwise at a virtual standstill. As usual, traders will watch for headlines and signals from the US and Iran, along with shipping flows, for clues on energy supply risks, with any Strait of Hormuz escalation likely to keep oil elevated.

Tech shares rallied on the back of strong results from Intel and SAP, with the Nasdaq 100 on track for a fourth straight weekly gain. Intel surged 29% in premarket trading on a blockbuster sales forecast. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing jumped 5% in Taipei after regulators eased limits on single-stock fund holdings.

“Those who called the end of the AI trade made a big mistake, as we can see looking at the semiconductor space,” said Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers. “The earnings growth is just astounding. It’s a sweet spot where the offer for chips can’t meet the demand.”

Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau notes the “renewed AI frenzy has seen semis stocks surging, widening further the US/Asia vs Europe performance gap.” US equity strength is supported by technical factors, Bloomberg notes as it echoes what we have been saying since late March, adding that gross exposure is high, net exposure isn’t, and there’s still cash that needs to be put to work. Discretionary managers have benchmarks to beat and higher dispersion shows the earning season is leading to a resumption of micro over macro.

Resurgent optimism over the economic potential of artificial intelligence has powered semiconductor manufacturers to an unprecedented 17-day rally. Investors also see the sector as at little risk of spillover from the Iranian war, with corporate profits and outlooks outpacing expectations in most instances.

“One takeaway from this earnings season is that the US leadership is back because of its dominance in tech, and semiconductors notably,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier in Paris. “Investors are now focusing more on earnings than geopolitics and taking the view that eventually a peace deal will occur.”

Equity and bond funds attracted the bulk of inflows this week, with stocks and IG bonds already tracking record annualized inflows, Bank of America says. Equity funds drew $25.9 billion, with US inflows at $18 billion in the week through April 22, according to BofA citing EPFR Global data. 

In Europe, SAP climbed 5.5% after reporting cloud backlog growth that reassured investors amid AI disruption concerns. Still, the Stoxx 600 fell 0.1%, with sectors such as autos and retail hit on concern that the war in the Middle East will have a long-lasting impact on consumer  sentiment; the energy sector gained. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• SAP shares rise as much as 7.3% after reporting current cloud backlog — a crucial indicator for future revenue to be booked — maintained a 25% growth rate on constant-currency terms in 1Q, beating expectations.
• Volvo shares rise as much as 2.6% as the Swedish firm raised its outlook for the European truck market after orders increased. Morgan Stanley calls the results strong and stable.
• Telia gains as much as 3.9% after the Swedish telecommunications group reported earnings. Analysts say the mostly in-line print is a good start to the year, noting a slight beat to Ebitda as a key positive.
• Siemens Energy rises as much as 4.9%, setting a new record high, after the firm saw significant order beats for both its Gas Services and Grid Technologies divisions in the second quarter and increased its outlook for the full year.
• Adyen shares rise as much as 5.3% after agreeing a deal to buy Talon.One in its first ever acquisition. The deal, while small to Adyen’s scale, is a good starting point for the payments firm and should boost its unified commerce offerings, according to analysts.
• Coloplast shares extend losing streak into a fifth day, dropping as much as 3.5% to the lowest since February 2014, after issuing a profit warning for the full year.
• Electrolux falls as much as 25%, the most on record, after the Swedish home appliances group reported significantly weaker-than-expected 1Q figures, driven by poor performance in its key North American market.
• MTU Aero Engines shares fall as much as 4.8% as UBS downgrades the German aircraft engine manufacturer to sell from neutral, citing exposure to a hard landing as the aftermarket cycle turns.
• Safran shares fall as much as 3.6% as Oxcap lowers its recommendation on the aerospace and defense firm to equal-weight from overweight, citing concerns around global commercial flight growth.
• Mondi shares fall as much as 8.9% as higher costs and lower prices hit the packaging company’s first-quarter earnings.

Asian stocks edged higher as tech stock gains outweighed concerns over the progress of US-Iran peace talks and shipping flows in the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5% after swinging between gains and losses Friday. The gauge is headed for its third week of gains, the longest streak since the Iran war started. Taiwan’s Taiex index was the best performer in the region, with TSMC leading gains to a fresh record, after the island’s financial regulator eased limits on single-stock fund holdings. Tech stocks were also buoyed by Intel’s stronger-than-expected sales outlook. Meanwhile, equity benchmarks in China, India and Indonesia slipped. Despite mild gains on Friday, risk appetite remains muted into the weekend as investors await further signals from Washington and Tehran for clues on energy supply risks. While elevated oil prices remain a key macro risk, traders are looking for selective opportunities in the artificial intelligence theme. In Japan, investors will be watching out for next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. The BOJ is leaning toward leaving its policy rate unchanged on April 28 amid lingering uncertainty over the war in Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.

Brent erased gains to fall 1.2% to below $104 a barrel. A Pakistani official familiar with the matter said Iran’s foreign minister was expected in Islamabad on Friday, with a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington expected. The dollar slid 0.2%.

In rates, treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points at 4.31%. European bonds underperform over the early London session, led by gilts following stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data. UK yields lead European bond weakness, trading cheaper by up to 5bp across front-end of the curve

US economic data calendar slate includes April University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini 0.5%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.3%,
• Russell 2000 mini 0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%,
• DAX -0.1%,
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +0.4 basis points at 4.31%
• VIX 18.69, -0.70 points
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2%
• euro little changed at $1.1685
• WTI crude -1.4% at $94.5/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran Foreign Minister to Visit Islamabad Friday, Pakistan Says; Oil Dips After Pakistan Says US-Iran Peace Talks Are Expected: BBG
• US President Trump posted that the meeting between Israel and Lebanon went well, the US is to work with Lebanon to protect itself from Hezbollah and that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is to be extended by three weeks: RTRS
• Israeli media: A limited operation against Iran may be carried out to avoid a prolonged war: Al Arabiya 
• An Iranian Ship Tried to Slip Past the Blockade. A U.S. Destroyer Chased It Down: WSJ
• Tanker Helga arrives at Iraq’s Basra offshore terminal to load 2mln BPD of crude, sources say; Helga is the second tanker to reach Basra terminals since the Hormuz closure.
• U.S. Soldier Charged With Using Classified Information to Bet on Maduro’s Ouster: WSJ
• Pentagon email floats suspending Spain from NATO, other steps over Iran rift: RTRS
• China to Curb US Investment in Tech Companies After Meta Deal: BBG
• Intel Shares Set to Eclipse Dot-Com Peak on Sales Forecast
• Conservative super PAC threatens to unseat Republicans over immigration bill: RTRS
• Hedge Fund at Center of Avis Squeeze Added to Stake Before Rout: BBG
• Citadel Sends Warning Shot to NYC After Mamdani Jabs Griffin: WSJ
• Meta Signs Multibillion-Dollar Deal With Amazon to Use Its CPU Chips for AI: WSJ
• Lilly’s New Obesity Pill Off to Slow Start in Race With Novo: BBG
• Oracle’s Deluge of AI Debt Pushes Wall Street to the Limit: WSJ
• Orban’s Son-in-Law Waits Out Hungarian Wealth Probe in New York: BBG
• Chinese Securities Regulator said that China is to allow qualified foreign investors to trade treasury futures from April 24, 2026, for hedging purposes only.
• US official said Russia is to be included in G20 summit invitations

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly in the red, ex. Nikkei 225, as bourses caught up to the selloff seen stateside, as risk-off flows dominated the tape after the reports that Israel is on high alert in anticipation of a possible renewed war this weekend. ASX 200 slipped further below the 8,800 handle, as losses in IT offset the gains made by Energy names. Nikkei 225 outperformed, supported by the tech sector as chips benefitted from Intel’s earnings (see more below). Ibiden, one of Japan’s biggest electronics companies, hit a new ATH while Canon fell after cutting its FY profitability guidance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded with the biggest losses, albeit just slightly, after a flurry of earnings. China Telecom reported Q1 net that fell by 17% Y/Y while autos underperformed.

Top Asian News

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has produced the first working single-digit nanometer DRAM working die, TheLec reported citing sources; Co. intends to adjust processing conditions based on this.
• Nomura Holdings (8604 JT) FY25/26 (JPY): Net 362.1bln (prev. 340.7bln Y/Y), Pretax 539.8bln (prev. 432.1bln Y/Y), Revenue 4.76tln (prev. 4.74tln Y/Y). Cuts dividend.
• Hyundai Steel (004020 KS) Q1 (KRW) oper. profit 15.7bln (prev. loss 19.0bln Y/Y).
• Kia Motor (000270 KS) Q1 2026 (KRW): Net 1.83tln (exp. 1.93tln), Operating Profit 2.21tln (exp. 2.3tln), Revenue 29.5tln (exp. 29.3tln).
• Mercuria is to take a 25% stake in an aluminium smelter, as well as hunt for copper mining investments, the FT reported.
• Taiwan regulator is to increase the equity exposure limit per stock to 25% from 10% for funds and ETFs.
• Renesas (6723 JT) Q1 2026 (JPY): Revenue 380.3bln (prev. 308.8bln Y/Y) , Operating profit 90.6bln (prev. 21.5bln Y/Y).

European bourses started the European session with broad based losses, continuing the downbeat mood seen across APAC trade. From an index perspective, the IBEX 35 (-1.3%) lags peers, whilst the AEX (-0.1%) fares a bit better vs peers. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Energy leads, buoyed by strength in underlying oil prices. Also for the sector, Siemens Energy  (+2.4%) gains post-earnings after it reported a mixed set of results, but raised its FY outlook; elsewhere, Eni (+1%) beat on its Adj. EBIT metric, and announced a 90% increase to its share buyback, citing an upbeat commodities outlook. Tech and Telecoms complete the top three. The Tech sector has been boosted today by post-earnings strength in SAP (+6.4%). The Co. reported better-than-expected operating profit and revenue, with cloud metrics also topping expectations. It also said it will buy back EUR 10bln of shares. To the bottom of the pile resides Autos, Basic Resources and Retail. The autos sector is underperforming this morning with seemingly broad-based losses; Volvo (+1%) reported Q1 metrics today, where its metrics were mixed, but ultimately indicating resilience amidst challenges.

Top European News

• German Ifo Current Conditions (Apr) 85.4 vs. Exp. 85.5 (Prev. 86.7, Low. 83, High. 87).
• German Ifo Business Climate (Apr) 84.4 vs. Exp. 84.8 (Prev. 86.4, Low. 83.7, High. 87.5).
• German Ifo Expectations (Apr) 83.3 vs. Exp. 83.9 (Prev. 86.0, Low. 82, High. 87.3).
• Spanish PPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 3.4% (Prev. -7%).
• French Consumer Confidence (Apr) 84 vs. Exp. 88 (Prev. 89, Low. 87, High. 89).
• Hungarian Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.7% (Prev. 4.9%).
• UK Retail Sales YoY (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 2.5%, Low. 0.8%, High. 2.2%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY (Mar) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 3.4%, Low. 1.5%, High. 2.5%).
• UK Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Mar) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.4%, Low. -0.5%, High. 0.6%).
• UK Retail Sales MoM (Mar) M/M 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.4%, Low. -0.8%, High. 1.8%).

Trade/Tariffs

• China reportedly to add seven EU companies to export control list, according to reported. Hensoldt (HAG GY) was added.
• Canada is reportedly to seek talks with the EU regarding access to ‘Made in Europe’ scheme, according to FT.
• China’s Commerce Minister met with the President of European Automotive Manufacturers Association to talk about the China-EU auto industry cooperation and EU trade restrictions. Commerce Minister stated that China will firmly safeguard Chinese firm’s rights.
• US President Trump tells the Telegraph that the US will retaliate if the UK continues to target companies such as Apple (AAPL) , Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) through the digital services tax.
• US President Trump said the US will put a tariff on the UK if the digital service tax is not dropped.

FX

• FX price action is lacklustre on the final trading day of the week. DXY leads marginally, while CHF and JPY are slightly lower.
• DXY trades tentatively and broadly in tandem with oil prices. A light calendar ahead with the Fed on blackout ahead of next week’s meeting and only UoM final data on the docket. USD-specific news light, though the Japanese Finance Minister said overnight there were no plans to change currency swap lines with the US. DXY still remains supported above 100 and 200 DMAs at 98.50; upside resistance is 98.90, which marks the session high.
• SNB Chairman Schlegel was on the wires a couple of times. He said they have “unrestricted” room for manoeuvre when it comes to the policy rate and FX intervention – Vice Chair Martin also echoed these remarks. EUR/CHF is unchanged on the session; it attempted to approach 0.92, but the move faltered at 0.9199.
• Katayama is also on the wires, she said “will take decisive action on speculative activity”, JPY unchanged, in a signal that markets are becoming comfortable with the Finance Minister’s threats. USD/JPY unchanged, looks at 160 to the upside. BoJ rate decision next week, likely to remain on hold, with all eyes on Governor Ueda’s tone at the presser.
• GBP shrugged off strong UK Retail Sales for March, as it does not change the narrative into next week’s BoE, where a hold is the base case. The data showed upside was driven by an increase in fuel sales, with retailers reporting that motorists were filling their tanks when buying following the start of the Middle East conflict. Online sales saw upside and are potentially indicative of a robust spring sale period. However, the core figures were in line/softer-than-expected, and potentially point to some greater-than-expected caution among consumers during the early stages of the Middle East conflict. EUR/GBP and Cable both unchanged, the former on a 0.8670 handle.

Fixed Income

• A modestly bearish session for fixed benchmarks, initial action a function of the modest and since increasing energy upside as we count down to and participants position into a potentially risk-packed weekend.
• Amidst this, USTs post downside of a handful of ticks in a thin 110-30 to 111-03 band. Ahead, the US docket is light, and we look to next week’s FOMC.
• Bunds post slightly larger downside, perhaps as Dutch TTF has been leading oil benchmarks throughout the morning. Currently, in the red by c. 30 ticks but also in a relatively narrow 125.20-44 band. The European docket is light, aside from Italian supply (should be well received, particularly after the sizeable demand at last week’s syndications); as such, price action will likely be dictated by geopolitical developments.
• Gilts gapped lower at the open, acknowledging the pressure in fixed peers seen late-Thursday. Opened at 87.10, lower by 41 ticks. Thereafter, slipped another 28 to an 86.82 low and has held there since; the second bout of pressure spurred by further energy upside and a hawkish BoE DMP. The DMP spurred end-2026 BoE pricing to 59bps of tightening from c. 54bps this morning and significantly above the 23bps implied this time last week.
• To recap the day’s data. UK Retail Sales were strong on a headline level but in-line/soft on a core basis, with consumer motor fuel purchases driving the headline, no implications for the BoE next week (hold expected, guidance in focus). Thereafter, Germany’s Ifo was soft across the board, with no real follow-through to EGBs.
• Italy sold EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2.25-2.5bln 2.20% 2028 BTP Short Term: b/c 1.63x (prev. 1.78x) & average yield 2.80% (prev. 2.89%).
• Australia sold AUD 1bln vs exp. AUD 1bln 2.50% 2030 AGB: b/c 3.82x (prev. 3.44x), average yield 4.6947% (prev. 4.2888%).

Commodities

• In geopolitics, fresh updates have been light as focus remains on the state of the US-Iran ceasefire and talks. The week ahead centres on four key watchpoints. First, the Strait of Hormuz “red line”: President Trump has warned the US Navy could actively engage IRGC vessels suspected of laying mines or interfering with traffic, shifting from shadowing to potential direct strikes, particularly after an IRGC-escorted Iranian ship defied the blockade. Second, the nuclear deal standoff: Washington is pushing for a comprehensive deal, while Tehran insists the nuclear file is not part of the current talks, raising the risk that negotiations collapse if neither side compromises on uranium enrichment. Third, internal dynamics in Tehran: reports of leadership friction and IRGC influence over the negotiating team point to possible policy inconsistency or hardline escalation. Fourth, ceasefire fragility: despite the extended Israel-Lebanon truce, sporadic clashes and reported drone activity underline how easily a trigger event could occur.
• Oil rose for a fifth day as limited US-Iran progress towards resumed de-escalation talks kept supply concerns elevated; Brent climbed above USD 106/bbl (vs weekly lows of ~ USD 91/bbl) and is set for its biggest weekly gain since the war’s first week. WTI June, however, remains sub-USD 100/bbl. Brent currently trades in a daily range between 105.02-107.40/bbl while WTI resides in a USD 95.55-97.85/bbl range.
• Gold edged lower, below USD 4,970/oz, with investors weighing whether higher crude prices from the US-Iran conflict could keep inflation and interest rates elevated. XAU/USD resides in a USD 4,658.03-4,711.23/oz range at the time of writing.
• Copper heads for a weekly loss, with the broader base metals complex also mostly under pressure, as uncertainty over the Middle East war clouds the global growth outlook, while the US and Iran show little sign of returning to talks after Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,215.58- 13,322.33/t. LME aluminium spread experiences the largest backwardation since 2024.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said she is urging the cabinet to seek new sources for oil imports.
• Union Spokesperson said workers at Australia’s INPEX (1605 JT) LNG plant vote in favour of strikes.
• EU leaders have tasked Finance Ministers to come up with new measures to deal with potential energy shortages after assessing that current proposals were not enough, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.
• Japan’s METI said Japan is to release 5.8mln kL of national oil reserves, starting May 1st.
• Imports of Russian fuel oil to Singapore has jumped with volume in April already more than double the average monthly amount in 2025, according to FT citing Vortexa data.
• The fire at Russia’s Tuapse oil terminal is under control.
• US President Trump said that the US does not have an oil shortage and are taking millions of barrels of oil from Venezuela. Have a great relationship with Venezuela.
• CME cuts initial margin on its Comex 100 gold futures to 6% from 7% and Comex 5000 silver futures to 11% from 14%.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump posted that the meeting between Israel and Lebanon went well, the US is to work with Lebanon to protect itself from Hezbollah and that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is to be extended by three weeks.
• US President Trump said nobody is trying to get through the US blockade.
• US President Trump said the Israel-Lebanon talks in the Oval Office went well and it would be great to resolve simultaneously with Iran. Looking forward to the next meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu. Great chance of peace between Israel and Lebanon this year. Everyone seems united against Hezbollah. Israel-Lebanon peace should be an easy one. Israel will have to defend itself if they are shot at. Israel will be surgical in their self-defence. Iran has to cut its Hezbollah funding.
• Tanker Helga arrives at Iraq’s Basra offshore terminal to load 2mln BPD of crude, sources say; Helga is the second tanker to reach Basra terminals since the Hormuz closure.
• “Israeli media: A limited operation against Iran may be carried out to avoid a prolonged war”, Al Arabiya reported.
• Pakistani official noted of a state of uncertainty regarding the second round of talks, “and we await Iran’s response”, Al Arabiya reported.
• Israel again attacks southern Lebanon, claiming retaliation for overnight rocket fire, Al Jazeera reported.
• Lebanese press Al-Jumhuriya noted of accelerated diplomatic efforts toward a Lebanon–Israel non-aggression agreement, driven by the US–Saudi–Egypt initiative, Journalist Kais reported. Plan revives idea of containing (not dismantling) Hezbollah’s weapons. Key proposed terms:. Israel withdraws to ceasefire line. Lebanese army deploys in south. Hezbollah moves north of Litani River. Start of weapons containment plan. Border disputes (Blue Line) adjusted. Prisoner releases, return of civilians, reconstruction. Deal would have international (especially US) guarantees. Coordination includes Iran to ensure Shiite/Hezbollah involvement. Parallel effort to resolve internal Lebanese political divisions. Saudi envoy pushing for meeting of Lebanon’s top leaders to create a unified position.
• “Iranian Foreign Ministry: Araqchi held two called with the Pakistani army chief and foreign minister to discuss a ceasefire.”, Al Araby reported.
• Iranian Vice President said any attack on oil wells will be met with strikes on attackers’ oil facilities; said it will be beyond “eye for an eye” response, Mehr News reported.
• Senior IRGC Commander said Tehran is secure and its borders are stronger than before, Press TV reported.
• The US has put a USD 10mln bounty on the leader of the Iran-backed Shiite militia group in Iraq, CBS reported.
• Lebanese media reported that Israel have conducted airstrikes on the town of Al-Qasir in southern Lebanon a few hours after US President Trump announced the 3-week ceasefire extension, IRIB reported.
• Israel’s ambassador to the UN said the extension of the Lebanon ceasefire is not 100% certain and that Israel is forced to answer every time a threat is detected, Tasnim reported citing CNN.
• US military are developing plans to target Iran’s Hormuz defences if the ceasefire fails, CNN reported.
• Israel-Lebanon talks have gotten underway in the White House, according to reported.
• Hezbollah said it has launched rockets at Israel’s Shtula region in response to Israel violating ceasefire and targeting towns in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli military said several launches crossed from Lebanon towards Israel were intercepted.
• An internal Pentagon email explores options to punishing NATO allies that the US believes failed to support the US operations against Iran, according to a US official. Options include:. Suspending Spain from NATO. Reviewing the US position on British claims to the Falkland Islands. Suspending difficult countries from important or prestigious positions at NATO.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian authorities say a foreign-flagged ship bound for Odesa was attacked by Russian drones.
• Imports of Russian fuel oil to Singapore has jumped with volume in April already more than double the average monthly amount in 2025, according to FT citing Vortexa data.
• The fire at Russia’s Tuapse oil terminal is under control.
• US official said Russia is to be included in G20 summit invitations.

US Event Calendar

Markets are entering the final day of the trading week in a cautious mood as US-Iran tensions show no signs of easing while the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed. Ahead of the weekend, there have been no signs of further talks, with Trump saying the “I don’t want to rush myself” when it comes to making a deal, while also claiming that “whatever I’m doing, it seems to be working very well”. Meanwhile, we saw Iran’s President, Foreign Minister and Parliamentary Speaker share similar messages of regime “unity” in short succession last night, after Trump posts claimed “infighting” between “Hardliners” and “Moderates” in Iran. The rhetoric had also leant in an escalatory direction earlier yesterday, with Trump posting that he’d ordered the US Navy to shoot boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. So all that has left lingering uncertainty, even as Israel and Lebanon have agreed overnight to extend their ceasefire by three weeks according to the White House.

From a market perspective, that means oil prices continue to grind higher, with Brent crude rising +3.10% yesterday and another +0.97% overnight to $106.09/bbl. Unlike many recent sessions, this also weighed on US equities. The S&P 500 spiked lower just after Europe went home amid headlines that air defences had been activated in Tehran, before partially recovering to -0.41% by the close, with reports that this had been due to small drones rather than signifying a collapse of the ceasefire. Still, with the cacophony of headlines showing no signs of de-escalation, oil prices held onto most of their gains, while both 2yr (+3.6bps) and 10yr (+2.3bps) US Treasury yields closed higher on the day. We have seen some stablisation of these moves overnight, with both S&P 500 futures (-0.06%) and 10yr Treasury yields little changed.
In Asia, the Hang Seng (-0.20%), the CSI (-0.85%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.56%), the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.28%), and the KOSPI (-0.36%) are all in negative territory. In contrast, the Nikkei (+0.61%) is being boosted by tech, even in light of slightly stronger inflation figures from Japan. Core consumer prices increased by +1.8% year-on-year in March, up from +1.6% in February, a tenth ahead of expectations. Headline and core-core were inline. The BOJ is scheduled to convene next week, where it is anticipated that it will maintain current interest rates, while also signaling a potential readiness to raise rates.

Back to yesterday and oil’s gains extended across the futures curve. The 6-month Brent future (+2.34%) reached a 3-week high of $86.74/bbl as investors geared up to facing a more prolonged period of high energy prices. The pressures were even more visible in downstream products with US wholesale gasoline prices (+3.10%) reaching their highest level since 2022. This was echoed in near-term inflation swaps as well, with the 1yr Eurozone inflation swap (+16.2bps) surging up to 3.35%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (+8.6bps) rose to 3.32%, with the latter now only 6-7bps below its high on March 20.  

The exception to the overall cautious mood were semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia semiconductor index (+1.71%) posted a record 17th consecutive advance, having now risen by an astonishing +41.1% over that run. See my CoTD yesterday here for more. The positive mood for chipmakers continued overnight after Intel’s Q2 sales guidance came in well above expectations ($13.8-14.8bn vs $13bn expected). Its shares surged by +20% in after-hours trading, helping NASDAQ futures to a +0.39% gain overnight.

The broader tech mood had been more downbeat in yesterday’s session, with the NASDAQ (-0.89%) underperforming and the Mag-7 (-1.56%) posting its biggest decline in four weeks. Meta (-2.31%) lost ground after announcing plans to cut 10% of its workforce, while Microsoft (-3.97%) announced voluntary buyouts that could cover up to 7% of its employees. There is a sense that these job losses are there to offset huge capex spend. Tesla slid by -3.56% after its results the previous evening.

In terms of yesterday’s other news, we saw a notable divergence between the US and European data with the release of the flash April PMIs. Strong US data raised hopes that the economy’s resilience was holding up into Q2. In fact, the flash composite PMI for April moved up to 52.0 (vs. 50.6 expected), with both the manufacturing (54.0) and services prints (51.3) coming in above expectations, while the subindices also pointed to rising price pressures. This saw markets dial down remaining Fed cut pricing, with a cut by year-end now only 20% priced, down from 30% at Wednesday’s close. 

Over in Europe, the PMIs told quite a different story, with clear weakness across much of the continent. Most notably, the Euro Area composite PMI fell to 48.6 (vs. 50.1 expected), which was a 17-month low and beneath the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. So that confirmed fears that Europe was headed for a more obvious stagflationary hit from the rise in energy prices. Indeed, that showed up in the price components, with input prices rising at their fastest since December 2022, and output prices at their fastest since March 2023.  

Given the stagflationary implications of the PMIs, European assets struggled to gain much traction yesterday before the US sell-off. Moreover, investors priced in a growing chance of ECB hikes to deal with the price shock, and the amount of hikes priced by December was up +10.5bps on the day to 59bps. Nevertheless, sovereign bond yields were broadly steady as higher inflation expectations were offset by lower real rates on the back of the growth fears. So 10yr bund yields were unchanged at 3.01%, while 10yr OATs (+0.7bps) and BTPs (+1.3bps) saw slight increases. Otherwise, the STOXX 600 (+0.05%) was basically flat, finally stabilising after three consecutive declines.
Here in the UK, gilts continued to underperform yesterday, with the 10yr yield (+3.0bps) up to 4.94%, whilst the 30yr yield (+3.6bps) hit a 7-month high of 5.61%. In part, that came as the political speculation around PM Starmer’s position continued to swirl. But the UK also saw a clear outperformance in the PMIs, with an unexpected increase that went against the pattern in the Euro Area. For instance, the composite PMI was up to 52.0 (vs. 49.8 expected), with a rise in both manufacturing (53.6) and services (52.0). So that added to expectations that the Bank of England would hike rates this year, with markets now pricing in 55bps of hikes by the December meeting, up +4.3bps on the day.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the Ifo Institute’s business climate indicator from Germany, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for April. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Panetta, whilst today’s earnings include Procter & Gamble.

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has launched a preview version of its long-awaited V4 model, ending months of silence from one of China’s most closely watched AI labs and arriving a year after its R1 release sparked U.S. market turmoil and concerns across Silicon Valley AI firms.

The rollout signals that DeepSeek is full steam ahead in the frontier-model race:

DeepSeek-V4 Preview is officially live & open-sourced! Welcome to the era of cost-effective 1M context length.

• DeepSeek-V4-Pro: 1.6T total / 49B active params. Performance rivaling the world’s top closed-source models.

• DeepSeek-V4-Flash: 284B total / 13B active params. Your fast, efficient, and economical choice.

🚀 DeepSeek-V4 Preview is officially live & open-sourced! Welcome to the era of cost-effective 1M context length.

🔹 DeepSeek-V4-Pro: 1.6T total / 49B active params. Performance rivaling the world’s top closed-source models.
🔹 DeepSeek-V4-Flash: 284B total / 13B active params.… pic.twitter.com/n1AgwMIymu

— DeepSeek (@deepseek_ai) April 24, 2026

The open-source model comes in the V4 Flash and V4 Pro series, with DeepSeek saying its V4 “leads all current open models, trailing only Gemini-3.1-Pro.”

In terms of reasoning, the startup said it “beats all current open models in Math/STEM/Coding, rivaling top closed-source models.”

DeepSeek-V4-Pro

🔹 Enhanced Agentic Capabilities: Open-source SOTA in Agentic Coding benchmarks.
🔹 Rich World Knowledge: Leads all current open models, trailing only Gemini-3.1-Pro.
🔹 World-Class Reasoning: Beats all current open models in Math/STEM/Coding, rivaling top… pic.twitter.com/D04x5RjE3L

— DeepSeek (@deepseek_ai) April 24, 2026

Counterpoint Research Vice President Neil Shah told CNBC that “DeepSeek’s V4 preview is a serious flex.”

According to Counterpoint Principal AI Analyst Wei Sun, V4’s benchmark profile suggests the model could deliver “excellent agent capability at significantly lower cost.”

Ivan Su, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar, told CNBC that V4’s debut is unlikely to deliver the same market shock as R1 did a little more than a year ago, largely because Wall Street has already priced in the view that Chinese AI can be built and deployed at a lower cost.

Goldman analyst Christopher Moniz commented on the market reaction in overnight trading in China, where “GPU and domestic chip stocks rallied after DeepSeek unveiled preview versions of its latest V4 AI model.”

Moniz continued, “News of DeepSeek’s latest AI model created weakness in AI application names – Minimax (100 HK) -9.4% and Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK) -9.1%. Conversely, China domestic chipmakers spiked – HHS (1347 HK) +15.2% and SMIC (981 HK) +10%. Tencent (700 HK) -0.4% on mixed feedback regarding its new Hy3 model release, with locals noting it is less efficient than Minimax M2.7 launched a month ago”

One key question is the chip stack behind V4: which chips it was trained on and which hardware it runs on during inference. Huawei has already claimed that its latest AI computing cluster, powered by Ascend AI processors, can support V4, suggesting that Beijing’s domestic AI hardware ecosystem is powering DeepSeek’s ongoing frontier-model push.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The loss of Europe’s geopolitical power is the defining decline narrative of our time. As Europeans, we are condemned to become unwilling witnesses of continental decay. And in no field of politics does the toxic amalgam of eco-socialism, elite arrogance, and rampant infantilism become more visible than at the level of the European Union.

What we are witnessing in Brussels and the leading capitals of the EU are desperate attempts at coordinated foreign policy – and the realization that the cooperation of powerless individual entities does not necessarily lead to better outcomes than bilateral cooperation.

That this realization must have reached the highest circles of European politics could be observed at the end of this week. The four “big ones” – Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy – called for a maritime alliance and the protection of the Strait of Hormuz.

Fifty additional states – according to the initiators of this rather peculiar political camouflage – are expected to join the European alliance. Leadership claims are naturally being made by the former maritime powers Britain and France, above all France, whose aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle may stand as the last remaining symbol of Europe’s great naval tradition at the center of these activities – if one can even approach the Persian Gulf at all.

The situation remains fragile: the currently stable ceasefire ends on Wednesday. And negotiations between the United States, Israel, and Iran are entering their final phase. From a European perspective, our assumptions are once again confirmed: the EU and its slowly re-approaching partner the United Kingdom are staging a political cabaret. First came the wait-and-see approach until Americans and Israel had militarily decided the situation. Meanwhile, some NATO members refused cooperation with the United States, only to now, after everything has been decided, attempt to place themselves at the forefront of political forces seeking to guarantee the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

Through constant media overdrive, Starmer, Macron, Meloni, and Merz present themselves as the decision-makers of the moment – it is their harvest time, collecting cheap public dividends. But is that really the case? Do they seriously believe that the majority of Europeans are not fully aware of what is happening? That European power is essentially the product of media magic – permanent propaganda wrapped in moral excess? A shadow of past greatness, reduced to virtual impotence, ultimately dissolving into the very media theatre that we, as embarrassed Europeans, are forced to endure every day.

The German contribution to the mission, as announced by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is predictably modest: mine countermeasure vessels (eight available), one supply ship, and two P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft. No frigates – they are tied up in a NATO deployment in the North Atlantic. Germany does have a defense budget that exceeds all other Europeans by billions, yet even this money appears to vanish into the nirvana of bureaucracy and into the coffers of defense contractors, who are popping champagne corks thanks to the government’s debt-driven spending spree amid multiple conflict scenarios.

As for the possible German contribution. But as said: whether a military deployment will actually take place remains uncertain. Europe is already feeling the consequences of its energy dependency and its eco-socialist policy course, which hit like an icy wind. Yet this does not change the fact that policymakers continue to refuse to acknowledge the geopolitical vacuum, and instead begin trying to piece together diplomatically what they have shattered in recent years – especially in relations with the United States and Russia.

From poker we know: those who repeatedly bluff at the same table with empty hands and are exposed will be dismantled in future rounds. A US withdrawal from NATO would likely also mean a full retreat from the Ukraine conflict. This move would expose both Europe’s fragile finances and its non-existent security infrastructure. The EU faces economic and geopolitical problems it cannot manage alone.

From a European perspective, not many options remain. To those advocating closer alignment with China: China sees Europe primarily as a dumping ground for surplus production from its politically driven export sector. Europe could be pressured at any time via export restrictions on rare earths or microchips. This is not a viable option.

Reintegration of Russia into a broader Eurasian cooperation would be a natural and obvious element. The attempt to force regime change in Moscow has failed. The idea, attributed to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, of fragmenting Russia into ethnic components in order to maintain leverage and control access to raw materials and energy resources remains a fantasy of hysterical Europeans trapped in their globalist worldview.

The United States remains, with its increasingly despised president in Europe, Donald Trump. He creates facts and destroys European dream worlds. And he executes a political program that allows the United States to dominate the Western Hemisphere over the long term. That the Americans project their power in the world’s maritime choke points – the Panama Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and, following the agreement with Indonesia, the Strait of Malacca – shows: Washington is preparing for the power struggle with China.

Should Europeans believe that the two giants will not ultimately reach an understanding, they are likely mistaken. The United States and China are working at high speed to consolidate their spheres of influence, reorganizing financial systems and commodity markets in line with their specific industrial needs. Moreover, the costs of an escalating conflict between the two would be too high. It is therefore logical to divide the world into corresponding spheres of power and shift the costs onto others.

For Europeans, it becomes a burden that the unavoidable has happened: access to energy and its distribution have once again become instruments of power. Oil and gas dominate – the so-called “declared dead” are living longer than ever. And Europe’s dependency is striking: up to 60 percent of primary energy demand must be imported.

Those who fail to conclude from this simple observation that the time has come for diplomacy and fair negotiations with partners – and that the era of lecturing the world with a moral finger in order to enforce a Net Zero climate regime is over – have simply been overtaken by reality.

Brussels’ strategy to impose a European climate regime on the world failed the moment Donald Trump buried the European climate policy anchored by his predecessor Barack Obama. The fact that politicians such as Friedrich Merz, Lars Klingbeil, and Ursula von der Leyen continue to cling to climate doctrine, CO₂ trading, and the transformation agenda is tragic for Europe. Our economies are now bleeding out until economic reality – higher energy prices, rising unemployment, and the emerging sovereign debt crisis – forces a political shift.

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sweden may need to consider options to reduce energy consumption, including rationing, if the disruption to the flow of fuel supplies continues as a result of the Iran war, the country’s prime minister and finance minister said on on April 23.

“We are not planning any rationing right now, but we are prepared for it to happen,” Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said at a press conference, according to Swedish daily newspaper Aftonbladet.

Speaking alongside the prime minister, Minister of Finance Elisabeth Svantesson described the situation as “the worst crisis in a very long time, when it comes to energy.”

“Government rationing is something that you absolutely want to avoid in every situation. That is why we are working on measures that will ensure that we do not get there,” Svantesson said.

Kristersson also said the Swedish economy is now in a worse scenario than it was before the conflict.

The warnings from Sweden come as other countries in Europe are bracing for the impact of surging energy prices.

On April 22, Germany’s economy ministry cut its growth forecasts ​in half for 2026, with Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche saying economic recovery will be “slowed down by external geopolitical shocks.”

Germany now expects 0.5 percent growth for this year, down from an earlier projection of 1 percent. Next year’s growth outlook has also been cut 0.9 percent from 1.3 percent.

The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action said the Iran war, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “especially,” has led to shortages and a rise in the price of energy and other commodities.

The ministry now expects inflation to increase to 2.7 percent this year ⁠and 2.8 percent in 2027, up from 2.2 percent last year.

Airlines Impacted

Airlines are increasing prices, cutting back on perks, and dropping routes to save money and fuel.

United Airlines said on April 22 it may have to increase ticket prices by up to 20 percent to offset the rise in jet fuel costs.

The airline’s CEO Scott Kirby made the announcement to investors during a quarterly earnings call, saying United’s goal “is to do whatever it takes to recover 100 percent of the increase in jet fuel prices as quickly as possible.”

“Yields need to increase by about 15 percent to 20 percent,” Kirby said, adding that the company is assuming fuel prices could remain elevated for longer, according to a transcript of the call published on financial commentary and analysis site Seeking Alpha.

“Realistically, there probably isn’t enough time to make up 100 percent of the fuel price increase this year. But I feel very good about 100 percent recovery and getting to double-digit margins in 2027.”

Lufthansa announced on April 21 that 20,000 short-haul flights would be canceled this summer.

The German carrier said in a statement that the flights “will be removed from the schedule through October, equivalent to approximately 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel, the price of which has doubled since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.”

Elsewhere, Air Canada said last week it would stop flying to New York City’s John F. Kennedy International Airport and raise baggage fees on some flights because of rising fuel costs.

Virgin Australia said last week that it was raising fares, and Australian carrier Qantas Airways said last month that it would increase fares on its international routes in response to the surge in jet fuel costs.

Guy Birchall and Owen Evans contributed to this report.

It’s no secret that Europe and western satellite nations like Canada and Australia have been rather hostile in rhetoric when it comes to the US.  This trend started well before the war in Iran and is owed largely to the ideological break between American conservative movements and European globalists and “multiculturalists”.  

The Trump Administration’s trade tariffs are a big factor, but they are ultimately just another reflection of the separation of ideals between the US and its liberal “allies”.  At bottom, US tariffs against allied economies are merely a response to decades of allies using tariffs against the US.  Tensions between western powers are rooted in a conflict of principles, not economics.  

Despite these tensions and the fact that countries like Australia have made it clear that they will not aid the US in reopening the Strait of Hormuz (which Australia relies on for the majority of its energy supplies), Trump has offered considerable help to prevent Australia from facing total economic collapse.

Australians are calling it the “Ship of Shame” – A series of refined fuel imports from the US over the course of the past month which are preventing the country crossing the “dry up” threshold.  Australia imports around 90% of all it’s refined fuels, including diesel which the nation relies on heavily for industrial needs and freight needs. Around 60% of Australia’s refined fuels are produced in Asia using oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Without these US shipments, the country was four weeks away from critical shortages and potential industry shutdowns.  Australian political leaders have proven to be either incompetent or indolent in their responsibilities to prepare the country for energy emergency.  

Critics will argue that Australia would not have to worry about fuel shortages were it not for US intervention in Iran.  But, as we warned in March, the blame rests squarely on the shoulders of the liberal Australian government, which has crippled their own economy with strict “green” polices, carbon taxation and their continuous efforts to thwart homegrown energy production. 

Australia’s economic weakness is a product of many years of mismanagement and has nothing to do with the Trump Administration or the war in Iran.

The US sent around 240,000 metric tons of fuel products in March alone, the largest amount to Australia in over 30 years, with more on the way.  Along with some alternative supplies coming from Africa, Malaysia and other markets, Australia’s emergency reserves are actually greater than they were before the war in Iran (with an extra 10 days of supply on top of their previous totals). 

However, there is still a threat of “long tail” shortages and price hikes if the closure of the Hormuz lasts longer than a couple of months.

The lesson is clear; economic interdependency is a mistake and “just in time” supply chains are foolish.  Furthermore, green energy is utterly useless and a form of economic suicide.  Australia is a perfect model for what not to do when developing a national energy policy.

The country’s sudden desperate need for aid from Trump and the US will hopefully wake up the Australian public to the fact that their current far-left political leadership is inept at best, and self destructive at worst.  

Via The Cradle

Two Israeli air force technicians who were operating at the Tel Nof Air Base near the city of Ashdod are set to be charged with espionage for Iran in the US-Israeli war launched against the Islamic Republic in late February, Israeli media reported Wednesday.

This marks the latest case in what has been referred to as an “espionage epidemic” in Israel. According to a report by Israel’s Broadcasting Corporation (KAN), the technicians worked on Israel’s F15 jets. The two were identified as Asaf Shitrit and Sagi Haik.

The report says they handed over documents detailing engine diagrams and photos showing a flight instructor’s face, violating military censorship regulations. 

The two technicians were also enlisted to gather intelligence on Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and former army chief Herzi Halevi. 

KAN revealed that authorities are mulling stepping up the charges to treason against one of the air force technicians. Eight other soldiers are being accused of knowing about the spying and failing to report it.

The Tel Nof base commander summoned the troops for a security briefing and informed them that he has been asked to clarify the incident to Israel’s Shin Bet security agency. 

Over 50 indictments have been filed against Israeli citizens for spying for Iran since October 2023, Mondoweiss revealed in a report.

Security analysts and commentators in Israel have described the situation as an “espionage epidemic” fueled by public distrust of political leadership, corruption, and general discontent among Israelis. 

Recent cases in 2026 alone include an Iron Dome reservist accused of passing system details for $1,000, multiple active-duty soldiers charged with espionage, and a thwarted plot to assassinate former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

The Iron Dome reservist, Raz Cohen, was arrested in a joint operation by the Shin Bet and the police’s Lahav 433 major crimes unit. According to the indictment filed by the Jerusalem District Attorney’s Office, Cohen had been communicating with an Iranian agent since December via the Telegram messaging app.

The reservist allegedly took photographs and videos that he shared with his Iranian handlers and provided coordinates for several locations, including the Hatzor, Hatzerim, Nevatim, and Tel Nof air bases, as well as an additional classified facility.

Ukraine has hailed the long awaited approval and release of a whopping a €90 billion loan by the European Union, which belatedly happened Thursday after months of negotiations.

“The European support loan for Ukraine has been unblocked – €90 billion over two years,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X.

“For us this is important, and it will strengthen, of course, our army, Ukrainian forces, and allow us to boost production of air defense systems and work more to protect our energy system for the winter. Together we will solve many issues of protecting lives. And of course, we will keep working to push Russia to real diplomacy to end this war,” he said.

Hungary and Slovakia, which had blocked the package, did not object before the 3 p.m. deadline, clearing final approval. This after a major Hungarian election wherein PM Viktor Orban suffered defeat, and rapid political transition is underway.

These countries lifted their vetoes after oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline finally resumed Thursday following earlier damage from Russian strikes. The timing interestingly corresponded with Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar cinching victory in a historic election.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the decision while traveling to Cyprus for talks with European leaders on the Middle East-driven energy crisis.

“While Russia doubles down on its aggression, we are doubling down on our support to the brave Ukrainian nation enabling Ukraine to defend itself,” von der Leyen wrote on X.

The loan is heavily weighted toward military spending, and the NY Times says that it signifies that Kiev’s Western backers see peace as being very far away. And additionally, this was unleashed by Brussels: 

The latest EU sanctions against Russia – the 20th round since the invasion – blacklist Russian banks and energy companies, as well as entities in the United Arab Emirates, Thailand and China, including Hong Kong, for helping Moscow evade western restrictions.

Again, as for what changed to finally unlocked the loan, Washington Post bluntly points out the obvious big elephant in the room…

“The two-year loan is moving forward after its main opponent, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, lost his campaign for reelection this month,” WaPo writes.

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Rooftop solar installations in Europe have surged since the Middle East war triggered a new oil and gas supply crisis and hiked power prices.

Demand from households and businesses willing to install rooftop solar systems soared in March and continues to rise at even higher rates in April as consumers look to insulate themselves from spiking gas and electricity prices, equipment wholesalers and renewable utilities in Northwest Europe have told Reuters.

Rooftop solar demand in Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK has jumped by between 30% and 50% since the war in the Middle East began on February 28, according to various industry executives who spoke to Reuters.

Sales at Germany’s solar equipment wholesaler Solarhandel24 more than tripled last month and are set to triple again in April, amid soaring demand for rooftop solar, company representatives told Reuters.

German solar solutions provider Enpal also reported strong rooftop solar demand driving a 30% jump in orders in March from a year earlier, and expects a further 33% surge in April.

The UK is also looking to boost rooftop solar installations as part of the government’s measures unveiled this week and aimed at breaking the outsized influence of gas prices on electricity prices.

UK firm OVO Energy said in an analysis last month that there are around 13.7 million homes across the UK that are ready for solar panels – nearly half of all residential buildings. If these are installed, they would generate 28.5 terawatt-hours (TWh) of renewable energy every year—enough power to charge all of the UK’s 1.2 million EVs for almost 10 years, OVO Energy says.

Separately, industry association SolarPower Europe has found in research that solar power saved the EU $130 million (111.7 million euros) every day in the first 17 days of the Middle East conflict—savings from avoided fossil fuel imports.

Without solar electricity, the EU’s fossil fuel import bill would have been 32% higher than it currently is, according to the research.