Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

There is finally some optimism in the land. Unfortunately, good vibes are not enough to fix the deep structural problems that now afflict the U.S. economy, from inflation to a weak job market to a small-business sector that is barely hanging on, in addition to a tapped-out consumer and egregious financial problems in government itself.

To be sure, the U.S. economy still shines on the world stage. But that is simply because most everywhere else is in worse shape. The structural problems are global, owing to the explosion of public-sector debt, bureaucratic overhang, and regulatory impositions over these last five years. The United States might be the least bad but that observation alone doesn’t cause the problems to disappear.

In that context, a leading and brilliant economist in China, Dr. Gao Shanwen, admitted in a Washington, D.C forum that the growth rate of 5 percent is likely not real and actual growth in China is closer to 2 percent. He was promptly disciplined by the Chinese Communist Party on his return and no longer allowed to speak publicly.

This has become a pattern worldwide: the silencing of economists who dare to dispute obviously fake numbers. In the United States, however, there is at least the freedom to speak. Where are the problems and what is the reality?

For starters, U.S. inflation has been accelerating since September 2021. It is now running 3 percent in real time, or 50 percent above the target. This continued pain follows four years of the worst inflation in at least 40 years and probably much longer. By some measures, what we’ve been through equals or exceeds the pain of the 1970s. The only difference this time is that the bean counters in government have gotten better at hiding it.

How much purchasing power of the dollar has been lost? By official measures, the total in this inflationary wave is 22 cents, but industry numbers in food, cars, housing, and services such as insurance and transportation generate numbers nearly double that. No one knows for sure, and calculating large indices depend on the methodology of weighting and calculation of mitigating factors. Add in new fees and shrinkflation and you can generate even worse numbers.

Even if inflation ended today, the damage of the last four years will be with us for many years. Sadly, that is not happening. You know it just from being out shopping or looking carefully at the bills you are paying through autopay. Everything is still rising.

Why is this? Did the Fed and Congress not embark on an anti-inflation drive starting two or three years ago? Yes, but Congress did what it always does: spent more money, which creates more debt, which the Fed then monetizes and thus creates more money. The Fed initially worked to sponge up the excess with higher interest rates but reverse coursed last year with a new quantitative easing campaign.

The low point in the money stock came in November 2023. That reversed toward easing. As of today, there is more than $1 trillion in new U.S. dollars sloshing around the country and the world than existed 14 months ago. This combined with rising velocity (pace of spending) pushes inflation in the opposite direction.

In other words, our continued problems are a direct consequence of political pressure put on Congress and the Fed as we moved toward the 2024 election. As usual, the party in power chose money printing and spending as a method of election manipulation through the creation of the illusion of prosperity. The incoming administration is now holding this bag. There is absolutely nothing that the incoming president or Congress can do to reverse the damage. It can only hope to generate wealth effects from dramatic deregulation and tax cuts as a means of mitigating inflation. Even under the best of conditions, the problem will be with us for another year at least.

Another headline issue concerns the job market, which is more broken than is being reported. Both the employment-population ratio and the job participation rate have been falling for six months. This is after failing to fully recover from March 2020 lockdowns. They now stand at levels more commonly seen in the early 1980s before it became more common than not for women with young and school-age children to be in the workforce.

Something dramatic has changed. There are undoubtedly many factors at play but among them is that many people had their lives so fundamentally disrupted and never adapted to the gradual reopening of 2022 and beyond. Many more disabled people are out of work and living off government welfare while many older people simply gave up.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

It’s hard to say whether such structural changes are permanent. Some of them seem to be owing to the unavailability of childcare for women of childbearing age. There is a cultural shift at work too, with two-income households turning back to become one-income households homeschooling the kids. No question that the U.S. educational system is deeply stressed and parents and teachers are bailing out at rates never before seen. This undoubtedly affects the job market.

The actual data on job creation over four years seems in a constant state of flux as revisions keep coming in, always in the direction of downgrading and correcting exaggerations over the last four years. The nativity of the demographics also raises questions, as nearly all job creation has benefited not native born but foreign-born workers. Whether and to what extent mass deportations of undocumented workers will affect all these numbers is an open question.

Regardless, the hiring market in white collar professions has grown extremely tight. The Wall Street Journal reports: “There are still plenty of jobs for people looking for hands-on services work, including in the healthcare and hospitality sectors. It’s a much tougher slog for office jobs, where bosses are aiming to be leaner and in some cases replacing workers with AI. … To date, the labor market has been weakening primarily due to less hiring—not widespread layoffs. But once companies decide to reduce payrolls, job cuts often snowball quickly, which could spark a much faster jump in the unemployment rate.”

As for other data points such as retail sales and factory orders, those have been overreported for many years simply because it is not routine for them to be adjusted for inflation. Once you perform those calculations with official or more realistic estimates of prices, we observe economic activity as flat or falling during the whole of the Biden years. This might have worked to keep spirits high but reality is going to dawn in the coming months as national media and agency data collectors are more forthcoming about what is really going on.

Then you have the problem of government finance. Gross federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product remains at levels not seen since the Second World War. This is an intolerably dangerous situation that puts everything at risk, crowds out private investment, and forever tempts the central bank into dealing with this problem with more money printing.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

This cannot last. Elon Musk formed, with Trump’s blessing, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to deal with it, offering up the possibility of cutting $2 trillion from federal spending immediately, without touching entitlements. There is reason to doubt that this is possible but I’ve noticed that in the weeks before the inauguration, talk of such draconian cuts seems to have died down a bit. That is seriously worrying.

There is simply no chance for a major restart of American productivity without dealing with the budgetary crisis. Business as usual cannot work. And yet everything about Washington is designed to forestall such dramatic actions. It is far easier for anyone taking power to look the other way, even inventing new ways to spend money, than to deal with the crisis the way any household would.

The regulatory problem is screamingly obvious. The Biden administration has tangled up multiple sectors in a plethora of mandates and impositions to the point that many have been nonfunctioning by design. This is something that the Trump administration can actually do, and one hopes the de-tangling efforts will be immediate and drastic.

These are all very serious issues that confront the Trump administration. Another factor too: national media is going to be far more willing to call a spade a spade than it was under Biden. Maybe this is good but it does not bode well. Six months in, the Trump administration could find itself dealing with a backdated recession that could foil many of its attempts to entrench tax cuts.

It’s a difficult problem inherited by an administration for whom public expectations could not be higher.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

This chart, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, tracks foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from the U.S. and China to Africa between 2003 and 2022.

Data is sourced from the China Africa Research Initiative at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. All figures are in USD billions.

ℹ️ U.S. flows to eight African countries are not included by the source, to protect commercial data of individual companies.

The Changing Nature of Foreign Investment in Africa

Earlier greenfield investment from both the U.S. and China., poured into extractive industries like oil and gas and mining.

While the number of investments were few, their stakes stretched into billions of dollars, like those in, say, copper mines in the DRC.

However, when commodity prices started trending downwards after 2012, capital flows dropped as well. But when U.S. flows fell off entirely, Chinese FDI in Africa began recalibrating.

Their investments started targeting firms in agriculture, light manufacturing, and services. In the last couple of years post-pandemic U.S. flows have also made a comeback, finding footholds in the food and beverage industry.

Meanwhile, there’s been a lot of commentary on China’s debt trap diplomacy in Africa, but there is also evidence that direct investment (the data represented in this graphic, which does not cover loans) does contribute to a country’s growth.

This study found that Chinese investment coincides with “significant and persistent impact on local growth after 6–12 years.”

Growth did come with some footnotes. The same study found that local competitors hired and invested less after Chinese-invested firms came in, but suppliers to the latter expanded operations and improved logistics.

Destinations of U.S. and Chinese FDI in Africa

South Africa has been perennially preferred as a destination for foreign investment on the continent.

It features in the top five countries for both U.S. and China’s FDI flows between 2003 and 2022, along with Egypt.

Notably missing from this list are Algeria and Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producers, that have been a magnet for FDI particularly from America.

It’s very likely that they’re on the list of countries for whom the sensitivity of commercial data has prevented disclosure.

China is playing the long game when it comes to securing copper supply.

Check out Visualizing the Growth of Chinese Copper Miners to see how they’re cornering the market.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Germany is bracing for a sharp rise in bankruptcies this year, with an anticipated 25–30 percent increase compared to 2024, reaching levels not seen since the 2009 financial crisis.

The grim forecast, reported by Handelsblatt based on an analysis by restructuring consultancy firm Falkensteg, highlights deepening struggles in key industries and the broader economy.

In 2024, 364 major companies with annual revenues exceeding €10 million filed for bankruptcy — a 30 percent increase over the previous year. This marks a stark contrast to 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic when 292 such companies went bankrupt.

The hardest-hit sectors include automotive suppliers, mechanical engineering, construction, and healthcare.

“We are at the level where individual months are definitely 20-year highs,” said the head of insolvency research at Leibniz -Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH), Steffen Müller, as cited by the German broadsheet.

“At the time of the financial crisis in 2009, we had around 1,400 insolvent partnerships and corporations per month. Now we have reached that level again,” he added.

Automotive suppliers have been identified as the most at-risk sector for insolvency in 2025, with one in six major bankruptcies in 2024 stemming from this industry. The transition to electric vehicles, declining car production, and weaker demand in key markets like China have exposed cracks in the sector’s foundation.

“We have rested on our laurels for too long,” said Düsseldorf insolvency administrator Dirk Andres, pointing to outdated business models and rising competition.

Similarly, mechanical engineering firms saw a 33 percent jump in bankruptcies last year. Flagship companies like Manz and Illig, despite their global market leadership, have faced significant challenges due to falling demand, higher production costs, and international competitors offering comparable technology at lower prices. The result has been mass redundancies with Illig alone reducing its workforce by nearly half.

The construction industry took a heavy hit last year, with bankruptcies rising by 53 percent. Increased costs and higher interest rates brewed a perfect storm for a sharp decline in housing construction, which is set to continue into the new year. Only 220,000 apartments are expected to be built in 2025 — far below the government’s target of 400,000.

Labor shortages and rising costs also affected the healthcare sector with 23 major bankruptcies recorded last year and two-thirds of hospitals and clinics expecting their balance sheet to look even bleaker this year, according to a recent report from the German Hospital Association.

As Remix News previously reported in November, the Federal Statistical Office expected bankruptcies in 2024 to top 20,000, while last month the Ifo Employment Barometer, which tracks hiring and job cuts, fell to its lowest level since 2020, indicating widespread layoffs and hiring freezes across industries.

“Fewer and fewer companies are adding staff,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, who leads Ifo surveys. “In contrast, the proportion of companies that want to cut jobs is increasing. Almost all sectors are considering job cuts.”

Read more here…

The first international commercial flight since the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the hands of al-Qaeda faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) arrived Tuesday at Damascus international airport.

The Qatar Airways flight landed with much anticipation, opening up a much needed travel link to the Gulf states, after most commercial carriers had abandoned Syria over the last couple years of security uncertainty and extreme economic hardship brought on by US-led sanctions. 

Most passengers on the plane were described as Syrian nationals who had long been outside their homeland, working in the Arab Gulf countries, where there is much more opportunity for professional employment.

Pre-war Syria, prior to 2011, had daily flights directly from European capitals. For example British Airways frequently flew to Damascus, but after the war began British Airways and others only flew in and out of nearby Beirut.

NPR (being NPR)… decided to use the opportunity of Damascus airport opening back up for propaganda purposes:

Ashad al-Suleibi, head of Syria’s Air Transport Authority, said Qatar had provided assistance in rehabilitating the airport, which had suffered from years of neglect as well as sustaining damages from periodic Israeli airstrikes.

“Honestly, there was a lot of damage from the (Assad) regime to this lively area and this lively airport and also the Aleppo airport,” he said.

This is utterly false. As is alluded to only remotely in the above, constant Israeli airstrikes on the airport going back years is what kept it out of commission. 

Why would Assad attack or ‘damage’ his own airport which was vital to his government’s economic survival and that of its population?

From the opening years of the war it was none other than the US/Gulf-backed ‘rebels’ which launched attacks on the civilian airport. There’s even a smoking-gun NSA document to prove it, via a 2017 article in The Intercept:

A loosely knit collection of Syrian rebel fighters set up positions on March 18, 2013, and fired several barrages of rockets at targets in the heart of Damascus, Bashar al-Assad’s capital. The attack was a brazen show of force by rebels under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, targeting the presidential palace, Damascus International Airport, and a government security compound. It sent a chilling message to the regime about its increasingly shaky hold on the country, two years after an uprising against its rule began.

Behind the attacks, the influence of a foreign power loomed. According to a top-secret National Security Agency document provided by whistleblower Edward Snowden, the March 2013 rocket attacks were directly ordered by a member of the Saudi royal family, Prince Salman bin Sultan, to help mark the second anniversary of the Syrian revolution. Salman had provided 120 tons of explosives and other weaponry to opposition forces, giving them instructions to “light up Damascus” and “flatten” the airport, the document, produced by U.S. government surveillance on Syrian opposition factions, shows.

NSA doc shows Syrian opposition was Saudi proxy. Prince ordered it to “light up Damascus” and “flatten” airport in 2013. Was “very pleased” pic.twitter.com/MNLRueNIiC

— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) October 24, 2017

Meanwhile, Aleppo airport in the north was the first to be taken over by Jolani’s HTS and allied jihadist factions in the events leading up to Assad’s ouster on December 8.

Jihadist control of key national infrastructure helped in the offensive on Damascus, which was largely bloodless, given the Syrian Army essentially folded soon after the militants entered Homs.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A Conservative MP in the UK has refused to back track after he urged that “alien cultures” propagated via mass immigration in Britain are making the country unsafe.

Robert Jenrick, who is the shadow Justice Secretary, stood by his comments, and doubled down, telling GB News “we have seen millions of people enter the UK in recent years and some of them have backward, frankly medieval attitudes to women”.

Jenrick further urged that the ongoing pedophile rape gang scandal “started with the onset of mass migration”.

“I will not disguise or sanitise my language simply to ensure that some people are not offended,” Jenrick asserted.

‘I will not disguise or sanitise my language to ensure that some people are not offended.’

Robert Jenrick stands by his claims that ‘alien cultures’ are making the UK unsafe. pic.twitter.com/BhCUF1T75m

— GB News (@GBNEWS) January 7, 2025

Here is Jenrick’s original post:

To sustain order in multicultural Britain, the state considered it necessary to apply the law selectively.

For decades the most appalling crimes from predominantly British-Pakistani men were legalised and actively covered up to prevent disorder.

The rule of law was abandoned to…

— Robert Jenrick (@RobertJenrick) January 4, 2025

After the cut off it states:

“The rule of law was abandoned to sustain the myth that diversity is our strength, destroying the lives of thousands of vulnerable white working class girls in the process. This appalling affair is the final nail in the coffin for liberals who still cling to the argument that Britain is an integration success story. The scandal started with the onset of mass migration. Importing hundreds of thousands of people from alien cultures, who possess medieval attitudes towards women, brought us here. And after 30 years of this disastrous experiment, we now have entrenched sectarian voting blocs that make it electoral suicide for some MPs to confront this. This scandal shows why we must end it. The foreign nationals responsible must be deported – no ifs, no buts. And the officials that covered up must be sent to jail for their appalling cowardice. Even that won’t be enough for the victims.”

In a further post, Jenrick noted “Millions of people in this country want justice and answers for the thousands of young girls who were raped and abused in the most evil ways imaginable. They want an end to the abuse that victims say continues to this very day. They are not the far-right – and to suggest otherwise is outrageous.”

Millions of people in this country want justice and answers for the thousands of young girls who were raped and abused in the most evil ways imaginable.

They want an end to the abuse that victims say continues to this very day.

They are not the far-right – and to suggest…

— Robert Jenrick (@RobertJenrick) January 6, 2025

The so called ‘grooming gang’ scandal has exploded into the headlines this week as Elon Musk continues to direct vitriol toward Prime Minister Kier Starmer, accusing him of facilitating a massive cover up.

Musk has continued to expose Starmer, who is now clearly attempting to prevent a new public inquiry into the matter.

Please call your member of parliament and tell them that the hundreds of thousands of little girls in Britain who were, and are still are, being systematically, horrifically gang-raped deserve some justice in this world.

This is vitally important or it will just keep happening. https://t.co/W5pxLsLdaz

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2025

Exactly https://t.co/Em57CTiszF

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2025

Why has the British government refused to deport a convicted child rape gang leader to their home country? https://t.co/lK2LYhgGrH

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2025

Jess Philips, whose job it is to protect women & girls, didn’t even try to speak to a single victim. https://t.co/OqRtgPYnXs

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2025

Starmer is evil https://t.co/sM6HZ1ycyX

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2025

Labor needs a new leader https://t.co/j6W78h4Rcr

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2025

Now why would Keir Starmtrooper order his own party to block such an inquiry?

Because he is hiding terrible things. That is why. https://t.co/9oAJxxn75m

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2025

In Parliament Wednesday, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch urged that the abuse is “still going on,” again demanding a new inquiry.

“There have been thousands more victims. Why won’t the Prime Minister launch a national inquiry?”

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch asks about grooming gangs.

Keir Starmer says she is “jumping on the [far-right] bandwagon”. Unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/XvJnQMVU48

— Peter Lloyd (@Suffragent_) January 8, 2025

Starmer responded by accusing Badenoch of having “jumped on the bandwagon” of the ‘far right’, repeating comments from earlier in the week trashing everyone who has expressed disgust and called for action on the matter.

Keir Starmer just claimed people who want a full inquiry into Britain’s rape gangs are “jumping on a bandwagon of the Far Right”

Wanting justice for 1000s of British girls raped by Pakistani gangs is “Far Right?”

Is this Starmer’s biggest mistake yet?

pic.twitter.com/nkqUp6zcqn

— Martin Daubney 🇬🇧 (@MartinDaubney) January 6, 2025

*  *  *

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Authored by Russell Clark via ‘Capital Flows and Asset Markets’,

It is always hard to get back into writing in the new year – this year in particular. As a family we stayed in London – and over the last few years, with my oldest doing motorsport and my youngest at a football academy, as family we are rarely together for long periods of time. Hanging out at home has allowed me to try and make a dent in my massive tsundoku that has accumulated on my bed side table. One book I managed to finish is Ultra-Processed People by Chris van Tulleken – a Christmas present from 2023! There was nothing too radical in the book, the idea of processed food not being good for you is not particularly mind blowing. There was one very interesting idea I took from Ultra-Processed Food. While humans basically need a certain amount of calories, we also need various other macro nutrients, which turn up in various random foods. I know that I occasionally will have a craving for steak, grapes, pineapples and apples, that will disappear after a day or two of gorging on these foods. In Ultra-Processed Food, the author points out that these macronutrients do not really appear in processed foods, or if they do in very small quantities. Your body will need them, so you end up eating much more processed food to try and get that macronutrient. You end up in the perverse situation of being obese and malnourished at the same time.

The fact of the matter is that general starvation and lack of food during and after World War II drove the industrialisation of food production. And in the post War Period was wildly successful at ending hunger in the industrialised world. Capitalism did what it does best – it was provided a profit motive to supply food to the world- and it solved it. The profit motive had a downside of course. Competition and profit seeking saw industrialised food emphasise addictive foods (high in sugar and salt) and food that lasts a long time to reduce costs (artificial preservatives). And lo and behold, in a single generation we have gone from a food crisis to a weight crisis. So does changing food production techniques have anything to do with falling fertility rate? In the UK fertility rates started dropping in the 1960s, after spiking after World War II. That fertility rates are at levels today seen during periods of war I find telling.

My original thoughts was that in the 1980s, the world turned pro-labour, and real wages starting falling. With less money, people had less babies was the line of thinking. I thought that a pro-labour turn in politics would also lead to a turn in fertility rates. You can frame the argument in many different ways, but I thought the increased job security of the pro-labour world would allow families to have more children. I had also assumed improving Artificial Reproductive Technology (ART) would also help to cause fertility rates to surge. To my disappointment, Denmark, which publishes up to date birth statistics, and has very relaxed and supportive rules on ART has seen recent birth rates fall back to lows. In 2021, the surge in babies made me very excited that this theory was correct, but it now looks like an aberration.

Thinking about obesity as a sign of a deficient diet allowed me to think about falling fertility rates in a different way. Obesity in the UK took off at around the same time that fertility rates fell. I never really saw any reason to tie falling fertility rates to rising obesity. If anything, birth rates have tended to fall during periods of food insecurity, such as during war and famine. But using the observation from Ultra-Processed People – obesity could be a sign of lack of macro-nutrients? That is excess calorie consumption in the search of vital minerals? That obesity is a sign of a lack of nutrition needed for baby making?

Circumstantial evidence is easy to find. Mexico used to have a far higher fertility rate than the US. But the success of Coca Cola in Mexico is hard to understate – a former Coca Cola salesmen was President for awhile, and per capita consumption in Mexico is far higher than elsewhere.

And Mexican fertility rates are now below that of the United States.

Of course, correlation is not causation. And there is a big problem with this analysis. Japanese fertility rates have also fallen in this period, and this is a country that works hard at avoiding processed food. Japan is also a problem in thinking high house prices may affect the decision to have children. Japan has had falling house prices for most of the past 30 years with no effect on fertility. But one thing Japan has had in line with the rest of the world is rising urbanisation rates. Is city living non-conducive to having kids?

Does big city living destroy the desire to have children? Are obesity, infertility and urbanisation all measure of the same thing – modernity? Could the possibility of telecommuting that seemed so real during Covid be the answer? Should governments mandate that all companies that can work remotely should work remotely? Is that the answer to the fertility crisis? It seems like a good idea to me – what harm can it do?

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said Tuesday that he was traveling to Qatar to take part in Gaza hostage and ceasefire negotiations with Biden administration officials.

Chances of a deal seem slim as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear he has no intention of ending the genocidal war, and Hamas is saying any deal must lead to a permanent ceasefire, but Witkoff insisted progress was being made.

“We’re making a lot of progress, and I don’t want to say too much because I think they’re doing a really good job back in Doha,” Witkoff, a real estate investor, said at a press conference with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

Witkoff said he was “really hopeful that by the inaugural, we’ll have some good things to announce on behalf of the president.” When asked what has been impeding a deal, Witkoff declined to answer. “I believe we’ve been on the verge of [a deal]. I don’t want to discuss what’s delayed it — no point to be negative in any way,” he said.

Standing alongside Witkoff, Trump repeated his threat that there would be “all hell to pay” if Hamas doesn’t start releasing hostages by his inauguration on January 20.

“If those hostages aren’t back — if they’re not back by the time I get into office — all hell will break out in the Middle East and it will not be good for Hamas and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out. I don’t have to say anymore, but that’s what it is and they should have been back a long time ago,” Trump said.

The president-elect has vowed to be a staunch supporter of Israel, as he was in his first term, and said on Monday that he was the “best friend that Israel ever had.”

According to media reports, Hamas has released a list of 34 hostages it is willing to release as part of the first phase of a ceasefire deal in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners.

The Times of Israel reported that a potential deal that’s on the table would only involve a six to seven-week temporary ceasefire. Relatives of Israelis still held in Gaza are calling for the government to pursue a comprehensive deal that releases all the hostages and brings an end to the conflict.

Trump: “If those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East. And it will not be good for Hamas. And it will not be good frankly for anyone.” pic.twitter.com/z5sPKF2xXt

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 7, 2025

During previous rounds of negotiations, Netanyahu sabotaged the chances of a deal by constantly declaring that he wouldn’t agree to a permanent truce and adding new demands.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United States likely will not take over Greenland anytime soon, referring to recent comments made by President-elect Donald Trump expressing interest in controlling the island.

“The idea expressed about Greenland is obviously not a good one, but maybe more important, it’s obviously one that’s not going to happen, so we probably shouldn’t waste a lot of time talking about it,” Blinken said during a press conference in Paris on Wednesday.

When he was pressed on Trump’s remarks about the United States acquiring Greenland from Denmark, Blinken stressed the need for allies.

“I think one of the basic propositions we brought to our work over the last four years is that we’re stronger, we’re more effective, we get better results when we’re working closely with our allies, not saying or doing things that may alienate them,” he told reporters.

Greenland, located to the northeast of the United States, is an autonomous territory under the domain of Denmark. Citizens of the territory are considered citizens of Denmark and the European Union.

In a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, Trump did not rule out using the U.S. military to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal.

“I’m not going to commit to that,” Trump said. “It might be that you have to do something.”

This week, his son Donald Trump Jr. took a trip to Greenland to shoot video as part of a podcast.

Denmark’s foreign minister said on Wednesday that Greenland can become independent if its residents want it but that it likely won’t become a U.S. state, as Greenland’s leader met with the Danish king in Copenhagen on the day.

“We fully recognize that Greenland has its own ambitions. If they materialize, Greenland will become independent, though hardly with an ambition to become a federal state in the United States,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said.

He did not say whether he believed that Greenland would become a territory of the United States, only commenting on whether it could become a state.

He told reporters that the United States has significant security concerns in the Arctic, which he signaled were legitimate, due to higher Chinese and Russian activity in the region in recent years.

“I don’t think that we’re in a foreign policy crisis,” Rasmussen said. “We are open to a dialogue with the Americans on how we can possibly cooperate even more closely than we do to ensure that the American ambitions are fulfilled.”

Greenlandic Prime Minister Mute Egede has said that Greenland is not for sale, in response to Trump’s comments.

“Greenland is ours. We are not for sale and will never be for sale. We must not lose our long struggle for freedom,” he said in a statement in late December 2024.

Trump, while commenting on Greenland, announced he had chosen Ken Howery to be his ambassador to Denmark.

“For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

The president-elect, who will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, said on Tuesday that the United States also needs to reassert control over the Panama Canal, a structure it built in the early part of the 20th century. He said that the canal’s control is a matter of national security and that Chinese companies control parts of it now.

“The Panama Canal is vital to our country,” he said. “It’s being operated by China—China!—and we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn’t give it to China. They’ve abused that gift.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

Attorney General Merrick Garland plans to release only the volume of special counsel Jack Smith’s report dealing with Donald Trump’s plans to subvert the transfer of power after his loss in the 2020 election, holding back on sharing the Mar-a-Lago report while the president-elect’s two co-defendants still face trial.

Garland’s decision all but assures the public will never see Smith’s report reviewing Trump’s mishandling of classified records at his Palm Beach, Fla., resort.

However, the filing says the top members of the House and Senate Judiciary committees will be able to review the Mar-a-Lago report at the Department of Justice (DOJ)… so don’t be surprised when the leaks start.

As Zachary Stieber reports for The Epoch Times, DOJ officials said in a court filing to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit that AG Garland intends to release part one of the report, which deals with Trump, “in furtherance of the public interest in informing a co-equal branch and the public regarding this significant matter.”

Smith has already transmitted the report to Garland, officials said.

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon on Tuesday had ordered the department not to release the report until the 11th Circuit reviewed a motion by Walt Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira, Trump’s co-defendants in a federal case.

While prosecutors dropped charges against Trump following his November 2024 election win, they are still pursuing Nauta, a former Trump aide, and De Oliveira, a manager at Trump’s resort in Florida.

Nauta and De Oliveira say Smith should be fired and that his report should not be released to the public, given he was found by Cannon to be unconstitutionally appointed.

DOJ lawyers said in the new filing that whether Smith was unconstitutionally appointed is irrelevant because the issue at hand is how Garland handles Smith’s report. They also argued that Nauta and De Oliveira have no interest in part one, and do not have standing to block the publication of that part.

“There is also no valid basis for this Court to pretermit the Attorney General’s discretion with respect to Volume One,” they wrote.

Officials said that while part two of the report will not be made available to the public, a redacted version will be available for certain lawmakers to view in camera as long as the lawmakers agree not to publicly release any of the report’s contents.

“This limited disclosure will further the public interest in keeping congressional leadership apprised of a significant matter within the Department while safeguarding defendants’ interests,” they wrote.

Cannon’s order prohibited, pending resolution of the emergency motion from Nauta and De Oliveira by the appeals court, Smith, Garland, the DOJ, and all persons acting together with the parties from releasing, sharing, or transmitting the report or drafts of the report with any person outside of the DOJ.

It did not bar Smith from transmitting the report to Garland.

Federal law governing special counsels requires each counsel to prepare a final report explaining prosecution decisions and transmit it to the attorney general, who can decide whether to make it public.

Submitted by James Holloway via ‘A Temporary Problem of Liquidity’ substack,

Ligado Networks filed for bankruptcy on Sunday thanks in no small part to the United States of America, specifically the Department of Defense.

In a suit filed in October 2023, Ligado alleges that the U.S. expropriated and used spectrum awarded to Ligado by the FCC without compensation and then engaged in a strategy of “deceit and misinformation.” 

Ligado is suing the U.S. for $40 billion, reflecting sunk costs and lost revenues related to a proposed 5G network in the L-Band that the Pentagon took for its own.

It filed for breathing space to focus on that lawsuit, among other things. 

The prearranged chapter 11/RSA supported by 88% of pre-petition funded debt, including first lien and crossholder groups. Funded debt (it sums to $8.6 billion):

There are also series of preferreds (liquidation preference just short of $3b) and two classes of equity. Cash in the cookie jar: $9.3mm at petition. Ligado needs $115m to “operate smoothly” through the post-petition period, according to Bruce Mendelsohn, head of the financing/capital solutions group at PWP. Fortunately, the debtors hit the courthouse with a prearranged chapter 11 plan: a DIP, a “long-term commercial transaction” with a third party, and a restructuring supporting agreement (“RSA”).

Telecom: it devours cash like a stoner crashing a bag of Doritos. The build cycles are long; companies are at the mercy of regulators, code enforcement officers and environmentalists with eager young attorneys desperate to Make a Difference, or at least an impression on the bosses. Has any industry been more creatively destroyed then re-assembled over the last thirty-odd years? Suppose it’s not some arm of the Law. In that case, it’s innovation (replace copper with fiber), its supply chain, or natural disaster (remember Fukushima? High yield primary was closed for three weeks as doom-mongers warned of mutant fish washing up on the beaches of California) or disasters of human invention. War, or perhaps the nationalization of what V.I. Lenin called the “commanding heights” of the economy. Lenin meant heavy industry – steel mills powered by hydroelectric dams and similar quaint relicts of a vanished age – and media/communications.

This brings us to the amusing observation that Ligado was tipped into bankruptcy by the Department of Defense’s (“DOD”) de facto nationalization of spectrum that the FCC had authorized for Ligado’s use. We’d heard the U.S. military was “evolving” in the general direction of “woke.” Is it similarly “evolving” toward Leninist methods of procurement, e.g., “expropriation”? “Liberation”?

Since 2010, Ligado has sought to integrate its satellite services with terrestrial networks, according to the first-day declaration (“FDD”) of CEO Douglas Smith. Specifically, it’s been seeking authorization to build out a 5G network using spectrums in what it calls the “L-Band,” a “highly attractive one- to two gigahertz (‘GHz’) spectrum category, known as the lower mid-band.” Ligado was nothing if not tenacious. After ten years of a “contentious, protracted regulatory process,”[1] the FCC in 2020 granted Ligado authority to build such a network using its “licensed and leased spectrum.”

Bit of a problem, though. The below spectrum map from Smith’s FDD may be helpful. We wonder if Smith wishes he had never heard of the goddam L-Band. Or, perhaps, he wishes Ligado was not under the aegis of the Department of Defense, the Department of Commerce (“DOC”) and the U.S. Congress “(collectively, the ‘U.S. Government’)”:

The teal-ish box beside Ligado’s 1525-1559 Mhz L-Band is labeled GPS/GNSS. This band is reserved for satellite systems that provide “PNT”: positioning, navigation and timing services. GPS is the “Global Positioning System” owned by the U.S. Space Force (which planet gets invaded first!?!?!). GNSS are the “other” Global Navigation Satellite Systems. Europe’s is called Galileo (such an injustice! Eratosthenes, overlooked again!) Russia’s is GLONASS; China’s is IRNSS, and so on.

The U.S., led by the Department of Defense, has argued since roughly 2018 that Lidago’s use of the L-Band would interfere with the GPS spectrum used by the the U.S. military to “coordinate tactical operations, launch spacecraft, track threats and facilitate air and sea travel.” Yeah, we get that. Say some general needs to extract himself from Kabul ASAP. What if noise from Ligado routed his entourage to the Friendship Bridgeover the Amu Darya River? How those Russians would laugh! And for all we know, noise from Ligado has already farked tactical coordination, contributing to this submarine’s collision with an undersea mountain, this naval supply ship running aground offshore Bahrain, and these two naval vessels almost colliding in San Diego Bay. (Maybe the Elite Human Capital in the Valley can make a Turning Circle app. The old folks did it with pencils, just like the old-school bond guys did repo in their heads.)

Smith argues in his FDD that “scientific studies” show Ligado’s use of the L-Band would not interfere with GPS. The FCC “explicitly rejected” the military’s claims about GPS interference when granting Ligado authority. So what’s the deal? Smith knows the score the Pentagon “has taken the Debtors’ spectrum for the agency’s own use, operating previously undisclosed systems that use or depend on the Debtors’ allocated spectrumwithout compensating the Debtors.”

Emphasis added. “Previously undisclosed systems.” Oh dear. If you ask us, sounds like 48, or some other GWOT agit-prop designed to rattle the populace into believing some “fight them there or we will have to fight them at the Rose Bowl in a way that will utterly ruin college football season” bullshit. The legendarily unaccountable Pentagon, or some entity within the archipelago of three-letter agencies infesting Northern Virginia like a colony of indestructible roaches, has some private war, or God knows what, going on. We assume that, too, is all highly classified. Ligado, through no fault of its own, stumbled into this band, and the FCC, believing it unused, shrugged and told them to take it. So the Pentagon, rather than – we don’t know, tell the fucking truth – reverted to the usual best practice: the tried and true “strategy of deceit and misinformation”(Smith’s words), an array of “unfounded claims” (Smith will not mind if we point out synonyms “lie” and “bullshit”[3]) disseminated like mean-girl gossip among the media and the legislative/administrative branches.

Smith says the DOD and the DOC orchestrated a campaign of opposition which included eight parties filing petitions to reverse the FCC’s 2020 decision. Various U.S. Congresspeople—always ready, willing and able to serve their constituents, especially when the defense of Our Democracy is at stake (and maybe line up a nice gig for when the DC scene gets old) — have likewise objected.

Ligado can’t be blamed for exercising its “rights and remedies” here: in October 2023, it sued the U.S., alleging that the DOD’s bullshit had cost it, Ligado, hundreds of billions in sunk costs and lost profits. $40 billion, to be precise: that’s how much Ligado is seeking in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims (it’s also not very much in light of the Pentagon’s budgets). The U.S., in January 2024, filed a motion to dismiss the suit. In December, the Court of Federal Claims allowed the suit to proceed. The case is

Then there’s the Cooperation Agreement with Immarsat. Immarsat, which also landed a piece of the L-Band, and Ligado agreed to coordinate their respective bits into “contiguous spectrum blocks within the spectrum and at the power levels agreed upon.” Ligado is required to pay Immarsat for those coordination rights. Rather, pay Viasat, which acquired Immarsat in 2021. Ligado has engaged in“extensive discussions” with Viasat about restructuring its “significant payment obligations” under the agreement. Just as the parties were finalizing the contours of a commercial agreement, Smith says, and right out of the blue, Viasat raised up a tax issue that had the effect of sinking the deal. Viasat ultimately“revealed that its true intent is to access the Debtors’ spectrum to implement Viasat’s commercial goals. In other words, without the Debtors’ spectrum, Viasat cannot execute on its business plan.”

What could the company do against such an array of foes? Ligado filed with a DIP and an RSA proposing a pre-arranged chapter 11 and recognition proceeding under the Canadian Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act.Prepetition funded debt will be equitized, other than the amounts repaid or rolled up by DIP. Equity and preferred interests are retained. As part of the RSA, Ligado is undertaking a long-term commercial deal with AST & Science LLC, a space-based 5G network.

The DIP facility is the standard new money/rollup. It consists of $442m of new money loans, $12mm of which will be available on an interim basis. On the final order, $327mm of “DIP Secured Funding Loans” will be available to repay the 1L first-out, and $103mm of “DIP Delayed Draw Term Loans” (“DDTL”) three days after entry of the final order. The new money loans bear interest at 15.5% cash and 17.5% PIK. The DIP also provides for a roll-up of $442mm of 1L obligations (other than the 1L first-out piece), which can be increased to as much as $497mm. Ligado also seeks the use of cash collateral (the above-referenced $9.3mm).

And those fees! Holy damn, but we assume it reflects the risk of supporting an entity that’s had the absolute cheek to defy the Exceptional Nation; make it mad, and it may smite well smite all the “consenting” investors unto the 70thgeneration. There’s a $20k DIP agent acceptance fee and a $80k annual agency fee. Those are in cash. These are PIK: 12.5% backstop fee, 5% commitment fee, 5% first funding discount fee, 5% second funding discount fee, DDTL funding discount fee (payable on the amount of DDTL draws made on funding date) and a 3% unused funding commitment payable on unused secured and DDTL funds.

As for the AST deal, Smith calls it “transformative” (isn’t that what Gerry Levin called Time Warner’s deal with AOL?). AST gets the right to use Ligado’s satellites, ground assets and L-band Spectrum, “including substantially all of the capacity on SkyTerra-1 and any replacement or follow-on satellites.”AST will pay an annual usage-right fee of $80mm plus a percentage of revenue. Ligado will keeps control of its licenses and physical assets. The deal terminates on December 31, 2107. The implication that the parties believe civilization will survive until then provides a brief glimmer of comfort.

Here are the percentages of support for the RSA:

Ligado intends to use the “breathing spell” to pursue its lawsuit against the U.S. government, and here’s hoping that Smith, Ligado and their counsels stick it to the Man, as was said by the hippies of yore. It will also continue working on its technology and document the AST deal.

Ligado’s first-day hearing yesterday ran just short of ninety minutes, which seems right given the support of prepetition secured lenders for the RSA. The docket includes a revised DIP motion incorporating revisions requested by the Court, which was signed this morning. The redline does not indicate monster changes. The Court approved other first-day relief.

The next event in the docket is a final hearing on the cash management motion, set for January 29.

Ligado also filed an adversary case against Inmarsat. The DIP posting memo is here.