Rep Lauren Boebert (R-CO), a staunch firearms advocate, has introduced a bill that would abolish the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF).

The bill, introduced on Jan. 3 when Congress reconvened for its 119th term, remains in the early stages of the legislative process. No text is currently available.

🚨 NEW: Congresswoman Lauren Boebert has filed legislation to abolish the ATF.

Do you support this?

Boebert railed against the ATF in the last Congress, saying the agency goes way too far in “rulemaking” authorities.

“We don’t trust the ATF because of their overreaching… pic.twitter.com/SQcjxOlolh

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 6, 2025

In February of 2023, Boebert said: “There’s been a lot of talk about defunding the ATF, even abolishing the agency altogether, and I’m still here waiting to hear a good reason why the ATF should remain an agency at all. Instead of providing regulations that keep our communities safe, this agency has made our communities more dangerous by wandering weapons to the cartels. Operation Fast and Furious exposed the recklessness of the ATF, how little regard they have for the rule of law, and Americans have had a hard time viewing these agencies and their rules as legitimate.”

Boebert isn’t the first Republican to suggest doing away with the ATF. In November, Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO) called for the ATF to be abolished, citing numerous “mistakes” by the agency, including Operation Fast and Furious – and vowed to introduce similar legislation to Boebert.

🚨 I’m introducing legislation in the next Congress to Abolish the ATF! pic.twitter.com/keK0zpmhRJ

— Rep. Eric Burlison (@RepEricBurlison) November 20, 2024

The ATF has been accused of regulatory overreach by several gun rights groups – including introducing a rule classifying pistols with braces as short-barreled rifles. In August, the 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the stabilizing brace rule was likely unconstitutional, Newsweek reports.

Meanwhile, Rep. Pat Fallon (R-TX) said in May of 2023, “Under the Biden administration, the ATF has been weaponized against gun owners and Americans who wish to acquire firearms in numerous ways in recent years.”

The time has come.

ABOLISH THE ATF! https://t.co/f24PS0DwSA

— Lauren Boebert (@laurenboebert) January 6, 2025

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang kicked off CES 2025 on Monday evening with a 90-minute keynote showcasing the latest new products designed to advance gaming, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and agentic AI. 

Huang told thousands at the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas that artificial intelligence has been “advancing at an incredible pace.” 

“It started with perception AI — understanding images, words, and sounds. Then generative AI — creating text, images, and sound,” Huang explained, emphasizing how we’re on the cusp of entering the era of “physical AI, AI that can proceed, reason, plan, and act.”

Huang explained that Nvidia GPUs and platforms enabled this explosive transformation that allowed breakthroughs across industries, including gaming, robotics, and autonomous vehicles. 

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tonight on robotaxis and self-driving: “I predict that this is going to be the first multi-trillion dollar robotics industry.” pic.twitter.com/QVTnwhdMUY

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 7, 2025

Several of Wall Street’s leading tech research desks attended Jensen Huang’s keynote yesterday.

Notably, Goldman Sachs tech analysts Toshiya Hari and Anmol Makkar attended the keynote speech and provided clients Tuesday morning with seven key takeaways from the presentation:

1. RTX Blackwell family: Mr. Huang introduced the GeForce RTX 50 Series Desktop and Laptop GPUs for gamers, creators and developers based on the Blackwell architecture. Supported by AI-driven rendering (i.e. AI will help boost frame rates by generating three frames per one rendered frame), the RTX 5090 will deliver 2x the performance of the RTX 4090, while the RTX 5070 at $549 will boast performance that is similar to the RTX 4090 at $1,599. The GeForce RTX 5090 GPU will feature 92 billion transistors with 3,352 AI TOPS of computing power.

2. Three scaling laws: consistent with his message on the company’s earnings call in November, Mr. Huang highlighted that there are three scaling laws that will drive demand for accelerated computing going forward; a) pre-training scaling (i.e. more compute applied to more data driving better-quality models), b) post-training scaling (i.e. use of re-inforcement learning in improving the quality of output) and c) test-time scaling or reasoning (i.e. models developing reasoning and thinking capabilities).

3. Blackwell in full production: in contrast to some investor concerns, Mr. Huang stressed that Blackwell-powered systems were in full production, and that every Cloud Service Provider had Blackwell-powered systems up and running. He also discussed the need to drive down the cost of compute as models including OpenAI’s o1 and o3 and Google’s Gemini Pro continue to increase in complexity (i.e. developing reasoning and thinking skills), and highlighted Blackwell’s 4x better performance per watt and 3x better performance per dollar in relation to Hopper. Importantly, we expect Nvidia to innovate and, in turn, deliver lower cost per compute unit on a consistent basis for the foreseeable future with the near-term drivers being the introduction of Blackwell Ultra in 2H25 and Rubin in 2026.

4. Nvidia Llama Nemotron Language Foundation Models: Mr. Huang announced Nvidia Llama Nemotron language foundation models, based on Meta’s Llama LLM and optimized for Agentic AI for enterprises. These models are designed to help developers create and deploy custom AI agents to assist in a broad-range of use cases including fraud detection, customer support and inventory management optimization. The Llama Nemotron model family will be available in three sizes to provide options for different scale deployments, i.e. a) Nano – cost optimized for real-time applications with low latency, b) Super – designed for high-throughput use cases and c) Ultra – designed for highest accuracy and datacenter scale applications.

5. Nvidia Cosmos: Nvidia also announced Cosmos, a comprehensive platform consisting of “world foundation models,” tokenizers, and data processing tools aimed toward enabling physical AI systems such as autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. While these systems are incredibly expensive, both from a monetary and data/testing intensity perspective, Cosmos (which NVDA has made available under an open model license) democratizes the development process through synthetic data for training and evaluation. Use cases for Cosmos include: a) using alongside Omniverse to generate all future outcomes an AI model could take to select the best path, b) enabling developers to easily find specific training scenarios, like snowy road conditions or warehouse congestion, from video data, or c) generating photo-real videos from controlled 3D scenarios created in the Omniverse platform.

6. Pursuing three robots: NVIDIA aims to enable the development of three robots, which, if successful would be “the largest technology industry the world’s ever seen,” namely, 1) Agentic AI, 2) Self-driving cars, and 3) Humanoid Robots. A critical step in developing these technologies, specifically for Humanoid Robots, is the processing of imitation information. While this tends to be a rather laborious process, NVIDIA seeks to relieve this bottleneck through Omniverse synthetically generated motions – which can allow for imitation training to occur independent of physical human demonstration and thus speeding training times significantly.

7. Nvidia Project DIGITS: Opposite to the trend of supercomputers increasing in size, NVIDIA unveiled DIGITS, a system-on-chip running the GB10 Grace Blackwell Superchip, boasting 128GB of coherent memory and up to 4TB of NVMe storage – optimized into a form-factor capable of fitting on one’s desk. The DIGITS SoC architecture design was supported by MediaTek, and utilizes the GB10 (Grace CPU/Blackwell GPU) Superchip. This compute unit can run up to 200bn parameter LLMs with 1 petaflop of FP4 precision, and maintains access to the extensive NVIDIA AI software and cloud suite. Ultimately, DIGITS enables widespread supercompute capabilities for researchers and developers to train and inference models, without relying on off-premise/cloud AI accelerator clusters. Per Nvidia, DIGITS will be made available during CY2Q25, with pricing beginning at $3,000.

The analysts reiterated a “Buy” rating on Nvidia, maintaining a 12-month price target of $165.

Nvidia shares surged to a record high of around $152 ahead of Huang’s keynote speech on Monday evening. By 1030 ET on Tuesday, shares pulled back 2.5%, trading at $145. Notably, shares faced heavy resistance above $140 for much of late 2024. 

CES will draw over 150,000 attendees and over 4,500 exhibitors through Saturday. 

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

January 6th rolled around again Monday and provided the leftist corporate media with an excuse to once again declare the date some sort of Pearl Harbour or 9/11 like anniversary, purely to smear Trump supporters.

The View host Sunny Hostin went even further by directly comparing the events of January 6th 2021 to slavery and the holocaust.

Yes, really.

Hostin stated “After January 6th, I think we need to find moral clarity, you know, in this country. I just remember after January 6th, you had someone like Mitch McConnell placing the blame on January 6th where it belonged, squarely on Donald Trump’s shoulders.”

She continued, “And then you started seeing people backtrack that and losing their moral center. You had Condoleezza Rice, I believe, on this very show saying, you know, we need to move on from January 6th.”

“I say no, you don’t move on, because January 6th was an atrocity. It was one of the worst moments in American history,” Hostin continued to blather.

“And when you think about the worst moments in American history, you know, like World War II, things that happened, you know, like the Holocaust, chattel slavery, we need to never forget. Because past becomes prologue if you forget and erase,” she concluded.

‘The View’ co-host Sunny Hostin compares the January 6th protests to the Holcaust. pic.twitter.com/47wFO9MoBi

— Ben Kew (@ben_kew) January 6, 2025

Wow.

Totally divorced from reality, and historically ignorant. https://t.co/8Cl2EsgPaz

— Hodges🐊 (@HodgesReb) January 6, 2025

Lets see:
WW2: Total deaths: 70–85 million (probably more)
Slavery: 12–15 million Africans enslaved (probably more)
The Holocaust 6 million Jews (probably more)

January 6th: 5 deaths.

I’m just not seeing it….RIP to the lost but there is NO EQUIVALENCE HERE!

— monarch the great (@OneMonarchTwo) January 6, 2025

A affront to Blacks, Jews, and veterans and their families, but she clearly has no grasp of the significance of any of it, so perhaps she’s excused. But why is she on television? https://t.co/Py7FuAG0UK

— Roy Abrams (@RQA) January 6, 2025

The View: Your #1 source for room temperature IQ women with zero intellectual curiosity screeching around a table https://t.co/4daiGuczXE

— ericontrarian (@eriContrarian) January 6, 2025

Even this woman’s shirt is divisive…

— denonccs (@denonccs) January 6, 2025

Maybe Sunny should consider refraining from talking about slavery?

Many were stunned one month ago when, after several dismal prints, including the worst JOLTS report in almost a year, the BLS reported that in October the US added 372K jobs, the biggest monthly increase since August 2023, and one which most establishment economists jeered – after all Trump was now president so it was fair to finally rugpull the economy – and said would promptly reverse in the next report. Well, the next report just came out, and it was  shocker, because after an upward revised October (which makes the 372K increase a 467K surge), the unexpected burst in job openings accelerated in November, when the number of job openings soared to 8.098 million, a 259K surge, and the first 8+ million job openings print since May.

For context, after a year in which there was not one positive 2-month period of gains, in November the BLS reported the biggest 2-month surge in job openings since March 2022!

According to the BLS, the number of job openings increased in professional and business services (+273,000), finance and insurance (+105,000), and private educational services (+38,000) but decreased in information (-89,000).

How realistic is this surge in professional services JOLTS? We don’t know, but we know that the 2-month increase in pro services job openings was the largest on record!

In  the context of the broader jobs report, in November the number of job openings was 953K more than the number of unemployed workers (which the BLS reported was 7.145 million), up from last month’s 855k.

Said otherwise, in July the number of job openings to unemployed was 1.1, a modest increase from last month, but on the low end of the pre-covid range in 2018-2019.

While the job openings data set was an upside shock, where the weakness continued was in the number of hires, which resumed their drop, sliding by 125k to 5.269 million, just shy of the lowest since the covid crash, while the number of quits plunged to a fresh 4 years low of 3.065 million as workers are clearly far less optimistic they can find a higher paying job elsewhere, and would rather be fired than quit.

Finally, no matter what the “data” shows, let’s not forget that it is all just estimated, and it is safe to say that the real number of job openings remains still far lower since half of it – or some 70% to be specific – is guesswork. As the BLS itself admits, while the response rate to most of its various labor (and other) surveys has collapsed in recent years, nothing is as bad as the JOLTS report where the actual response rate remains near a record low 33%

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

US stocks closed higher yesterday to open the first full trading week of the year as Vice President Harris certified the results of the November presidential election ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20th. Crossing that milestone in Trump’s return to the White House may have contributed to the re-stoking of optimism in equities after a selloff late last year.

The S&P500 rose 0.55% driven by a 3.43% gain for Nvidia as markets await CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at the CES conference in Las Vegas. Other techs also performed well, but the more value-oriented Dow Jones closed slightly lower. Bitcoin rallied back above the $102,000 level.

Crude oil prices fell slightly after rallying for five-straight days. Oil markets had been correcting higher on a constellation of influences that included mooted Chinese stimulus, low inventory levels at the Cushing storage hub and the prospect of fresh sanctions on Iran once President Trump takes office. RaboResearch Energy Analyst Joe DeLaura has said that traders may be overestimating the effects and quickness of any sanctions, and that pops in prices are likely to be met with greater supply from OPEC+ producers.

Henry Hub natural gas futures gained almost 10% following forecasts of persistent colder weather in the United States and a fall in production of almost 2%. Spot gold continues to trade just above the $2,600/oz level and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a second-straight trading day, but remains close to multi-decade highs.

Many analysts continue to expect Dollar outperformance in 2025 with an alleged shrinking US trade deficit (courtesy of tariffs) and relatively tight monetary policy (courtesy of tariff-induced inflation) being the main constructive influences. However, if those forecasts don’t play out there is plenty of air under the DXY from current levels. If broad-based Dollar weakness were to occur it would likely push commodity prices higher (since commodities are typically denominated in dollars) and re-stoke goods inflation pressures. Perhaps a latent fear of an inflation resurgence is part of the reasoning behind equities remaining well-bid despite eye watering P/E ratios?

EUR and CAD were the best performing G10 currencies yesterday following a substantially stronger than expected German CPI print alongside a strong inflation print for the state of Hesse and an announcement from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that he will be resigning the leadership of the governing Liberal Party ahead of elections expected later this year. Trudeau’s Liberals trail the opposition Conservatives by a wide margin in published polling and are on track for a sufficiently large wipeout that some polling suggests they may struggle to win enough seats to become the official opposition.

The strong CPI prints prompted 10-year German bund yields to rise 2.3 bps to 2.45%, while 2-year bund yields gained 3.4bps to 2.19%. 10-year yields also rose in the United States (+3.2bps) and the United Kingdom (+1.8bps), but fell in France, Italy and Spain. We will see further inflation data for German states throughout the week, which should give a better picture of how widespread the turn up in inflation is and how great the influence of rising energy prices might be.

The higher yields in the USA likely came as a reaction to comments from Donald Trump on Truth Social that a story in the Washington Post suggesting that Trump’s tariffs would only cover critical imports was “fake news”. Yields had initially fallen by around 2.5bps upon publication of the article as traders apparently surmised that a more targeted tariff regime may provide the Fed with additional breathing room to lower the Fed Funds rate without risking an resurgence in inflation pressures.

The denial of any change to planned tariffs comes as fresh data released yesterday showed a faster than expected decline in durable goods orders in November. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the final read of the November data to show a decline of -0.5% including transportation orders, but the actual figure came in at -1.2%, which was actually slightly worse than the preliminary figure of -1.1%. Similarly, November factory orders disappointed with a worse than expected -0.4% print, though the ex-transportation figure printed at +0.2%.

Much has been made of the success of Joe Biden’ signature industrial policies of driving renewed investment in factory construction in the USA. While that may be the case, it certainly appears that the rubber is yet to hit the road in terms of actual production and reduced dependency on imported goods. As noted above, the Trump tariffs have the express purpose of reducing the USA’s import dependence and re-shoring manufacturing jobs lost during the neoliberal experiment in globalized free-trading, but growth in manufacturing payrolls remained relatively weak during the first Trump administration and is likely to have been negative in 2024. We await Friday’s payrolls figures to confirm this point.

Services PMIs released yesterday were stronger for most major European economies, with a particularly strong reading for Spain. The China Caixin services PMI also recorded a handy lift, but the US, UK and Canada all saw softer results than expected with the latter slipping into contractionary territory.

The S&P US services PMI had lately diverged from the better-established ISM survey. The downward revision to the December reading brings the two into better alignment, but the release of the ISM services figures today ought to be a key point of interest for market participants.

With ‘soft’ survey data trending lower (and PMIs mixed), analysts expected this morning’s ISM Services data to print higher (catching up to S&P Global’s PMI surge in December) and they were right.

ISM Services surged to 54.1 (from 52.1 prior and better than the 53.5 expected)

Source: Bloomberg

However, below the surface things are not so awesome as Prices Paid exploded from 58.2 to 64.4 and employment slipped to 51.4…

Source: Bloomberg

Producers remain challenged by a strong dollar, potential tariffs (Trump Effect) and general uncertainty from dockworkers’ contract negotiations that are set to resume Tuesday.

‘Inflation’ expectations are at their highest since Feb 2023 – The market is no longer pricing in a full cut by July…

… not at all what Powell and his pals want to see (or maybe it is).

Bowing to a mix of court rulings, consumer backlash, and rational attentiveness to self-interest, US institutions are abandoning the cult of diversity, equity and inclusion. The latest domino to fall is an American icon: McDonald’s on Monday announced it is curtailing many of its diversity initiatives.  

The news came in an open letter to McDonald’s its owner/operators, employees and suppliers. Among other factors influencing the move away from DEI, the company pointed to the Supreme Court’s 2023 ruling that struck down race-centric admissions practice. “We…assessed the shifting legal landscape to anticipate how this ruling may impact corporations such as McDonald’s,” the firm wrote.   

The McDonald’s return to rationality follows similar developments in a host of huge US companies, including Walmart, Ford, John Deere, Lowe’s, Harley-Davidson, Jack Daniel’s, Microsoft, United Airlines and Boeing. While reaffirming McDonald’s commitment to inclusion, the company announced it would “modify…a few practices.” Among them:

• We are retiring setting aspirational representation goals and instead keeping our focus on continuing to embed inclusion practices that grow our business into our everyday process and operations.  
• We are pausing external surveys to focus on the work we are doing internally to grow the business. 
• We are retiring Supply Chain’s Mutual Commitment to DEI pledge in favor of a more integrated discussion with suppliers about inclusion as it relates to business performance.

McDonald’s vague reference to “pausing external surveys” almost certainly refers to an annual Human Rights Campaign survey that grades companies on LGBTQ inclusion, while the supply chain DEI pledge was McDonald’s quest to impose DEI schemes on the company’s suppliers, demanding they promise to “accelerate cultures of inclusion and belonging.” When announcing that pledge, McDonald’s said it was starting with 20 US-based suppliers, with an ambition to impose it “across McDonald’s value chain by 2025.” Instead, 2025 is the year the scheme is evaporating. 

Perhaps the best component of McDonald’s announcement was an embrace of what might be called benevolent neutrality: “We are also excited to introduce a new concept: the power of OUR “Golden Rule” — treating everyone with dignity, fairness and respect, always.” 

Robby Starbuck, the conservative who’s been blazing a highly effective, boycott-threatening, anti-DEI warpath on prominent consumer-brand companies, implied that his imminent targeting of McDonald’s triggered the announcement, noting that he’d told the company on Friday that he was working on a story about their practices. In a social media post, Starbuck celebrated the McDonald’s move and the broader trend it’s part of: 

“Our campaigns are so effective that we’re getting the biggest companies on earth to change their policies without me even posting a story exposing their woke policies first. Companies can see that America wants sanity back. The era of wokeness is dying right in front of our eyes. The landscape of corporate America is quickly shifting to sanity and neutrality. We are the trend, not the anomaly anymore.” 

The meme has been updated. McDonald’s is on the bottom right. I wonder what company we’ll kill woke policies at next? 🔥 @PlanetOfMemes pic.twitter.com/JjlwYQKbSx

— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) January 7, 2025

Some of McDonald’s woke infrastructure will remain, but it’s being renamed to better align with how the company will approach things going forward. “We are evolving how we refer to our diversity team, which will now be the Global Inclusion Team. This name change is more fitting for McDonald’s in light of our inclusion value and better aligns with this team’s work,” McDonald’s said.    

McDonald’s noted that 30% of its US leaders come from “underrepresented groups.” However, that’s only 1% higher than it was in 2021, according to Associated Press. It had targeted 35% as the goal for year-end 2025.  

McDonalds went all-in on diversity schemes in 2021, the year after George Floyd’s death in the custody of Minneapolis police set off a DEI mania that swept across America and western Europe. In addition to the social pressure, the company had also been hit by lawsuits alleging sexual harassment against employees and racial discrimination against black former franchise owners.   

As the Great DEI Rollback continues, the only question is…who’s next? 

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Special counsel Jack Smith is preparing a final report on the case involving President-elect Donald Trump and two others, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) confirmed on Jan. 7.

Smith’s office is preparing a two-volume report to explain Smith’s prosecution decisions, lawyers for Smith’s office and the DOJ said in a filing to U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon.

One of the volumes pertains to the case Smith brought against Trump, former aide Walt Nauta, and Mar-a-Lago manager Carlos De Oliveira.

Attorney General Merrick Garland “has not yet determined how to handle the report volume pertaining to this case,” but will commit to not releasing it to the public before 10 a.m. on Jan. 10, the lawyers added.

Smith will not transmit the report to Garland before 1 p.m. on Jan. 7.

The details by the government came after Nauta and De Oliveira, through their lawyers, urged Cannon to enter an order blocking Smith from sharing the report with anybody else, and from taking any further actions to complete it.

The release of the report, they said, “would directly infringe on Nauta’s and De Oliveira’s Fifth Amendment due process rights, taking on the status of a public form of an invalid new indictment, replete with unfairly prejudicial assertions of alleged offenses going well beyond any assertions in the indictment and other public filings.”

The lawyers said that Cannon needs to act quickly because they believe that the government will issue the final report within the next few days.

Federal law states that each special counsel shall provide the attorney general with a confidential report “explaining the prosecution or declination decisions reached by the Special Counsel.”

Smith brought two cases against Trump. Both were dropped after Trump won the 2024 election and started preparing to take office again.

Trump’s lawyers told Garland in a separate letter that they were able to review a draft of the report recently in Washington and that there are serious problems with the document.

“The Draft Report violates fundamental norms regarding the presumption of innocence, including with respect to third parties unnecessarily impugned by Smith’s false claims,” the lawyers said.

Releasing the report to the public would violate the Presidential Transition Act, according to the lawyers.

Both sets of lawyers highlighted how Cannon previously found that Smith was unconstitutionally appointed as a special counsel.

“Because Smith has proposed an unlawful course of action, you must countermand his plan and remove him promptly. If Smith is not removed, then the handling of his report should be deferred to President Trump’s incoming attorney general, consistent with the expressed will of the People,” Trump’s lawyers told Garland.

“Finally, should you disagree with the positions set forth below, we respectfully request notice of that decision prior to the unlawful release of any report so that we can pursue injunctive and other relief to protect the rights of President Trump, others unfairly implicated by Smith’s work, and the people of this great Nation who elected President Trump to run the government and put an end to the weaponization of the justice system,” they added.

Smith’s office and the DOJ said the brief, early morning filing would be followed by a more detailed response to the emergency motion by 7 p.m. on Tuesday.

US equity futures are up small this morning as yields continue to rise (SPX +17bps; NDX +5bps; US 10 year yield higher at 4.64%). As a reminder equities typically struggle when rates rise by 2 standard deviations in a given month, which in today’s terms is ~60bps. Stocks remain wobbly after yesterday’s performance which saw big tech the standout, vs the Dow and S&P equal weight down on the day. Nvidia rose 1.9% in premarket trading to a new record high after CEO Jensen Huang announced a raft of new chips, software and services. Uber also gained on news about a collaboration with Nvidia for autonomous driving technology. Overnight, Europe is broadly higher with Eurozone inflation coming in line with forecasts, though ECB survey shows consumer inflation expectations picked up. Asia closed mixed (Shanghai +71bps/Hang Seng -1.22%/Nikkei +1.97%) with Japan leading the way driven by tech strength (Tokyo Electron +11%). The yen weakened to a 6-month low in the morning before verbal intervention from Finance Minister Kato. The macro focus for today will be Richmond Fed President Barkin (voter) speaks (8am est), JOLTS (10am est, GS 7,750k, consensus 7,745k, last 7,744k), ISM Services Index (10am, GS 53.5, consensus 53.5, last 52.1), & Treasury selling $39B of 10-year notes.

In premarket trading, mag 7 names are mixed: Apple (AAPL) -1%, Nvidia (NVDA) +2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.2%, Amazon (AMZN) is flat, Meta Platforms (META) -0.7% and Tesla (TSLA) -1%. Nvidia rises 2% after CEO Huang announced a raft of new chips, software and services, aiming to stay at the forefront of artificial intelligence computing. Apple dropped 1% as MoffettNathanson downgrades the iPhone maker, citing high valuation, antitrust overhang and weakening position in China. Tesla (TSLA) slips 1% after BofA stepped away from its bullish rating, citing valuation and execution risks. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Arbe Robotics jumps 11% after the robotics systems maker announced a collaboration with Nvidia to enhance radar-based free space mapping.
• Aurora Innovation soars 43% as the self-driving technology company partners with Continental and Nvidia to deploy driverless trucks at scale.
• Micron rises 3% after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company is providing memory chips for its new GPUs.
• Moderna gains 3%, along with other vaccine developers, as seasonal flu cases across the country continue to increase.
• Uber rises 2% after the ride-hailing company said it’s teaming up with Nvidia in order to accelerate the development of autonomous driving technology.

European stocks gained after money markets shrugged off an uptick in regional inflation and kept expectations for European Central Bank interest-rate cuts steady. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%, clawing back earlier losses of as much as 0.4% led by gains in financial services, retail and real estate. Data showed euro-area consumer prices rose 2.4% from a year ago in December, up from 2.2% in November and matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg poll. The increase was largely driven by energy costs, which climbed for the first time since July, Eurostat said. Swaps pricing points to just over 100 basis points of ECB easing by year-end. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• European retail stocks outperform on Tuesday after UK clothing seller Next boosted its profit forecast, driven by a strong showing from its international online business
• Kion shares rose as much as 10% in Frankfurt trading after the company said it’s working with Accenture to optimize supply chains using Nvidia’s AI and simulation technologies
• BE Semiconductor shares rise as much as 5.4% to the highest since July after UBS raises its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying 2025 could mark the turning point for the company, with demand for mainstream chip packaging equipment recovering
• Boliden gains as much as 4.1% after UBS raised the stock to neutral from sell, seeing a more balanced risk/reward ratio after the acquisition of Lundin Mining’s operations in Nerves-Corvo in Portugal and Zinkgruvan in Sweden
• Next shares advance as much as 4.3%, after the UK clothing retailer boosted its full-year earnings forecast. Sales to date are ahead of previous guidance, driven by the strength of international online operations, RBC analysts said
• Deutsche Lufthansa shares rally as much as 2.4% after Citi double upgraded the airline to buy. Analysts say 2024 was likely a trough year for the German flagship airline and see potential for capacity growth and greater productivity
• Sodexo drops as much as 9.5%, the most since late September, after delivering a first-quarter performance below analyst expectations. The French catering company maintained its organic growth target for the full year
• Alstom falls as much as 6.1%, after Goldman Sachs downgraded the French rolling-stock manufacturer to sell from neutral, projecting the company’s 94% surge in 2024 will be “difficulty to sustain”
• Pennon slides as much as 5.1%, the most in over five months, after Deutsche Bank downgrades to give the water company its only sell recommendation, citing the likelihood of a large equity raise
• Sika declines drop as much as 2.3% after Barclays downgrades the building materials company by two notches to underweight from overweight and slashes its price target to CHF215 from CHF330

For European markets, “a lot of bad news is priced in already,” Florian Ielpo, head of macro reserach at Lombard Odier Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “You have a recovery that is only starting and that recovery can come with a tad more inflation. European equities could be capturing some of that in the next 12 months.”

Asian stocks gained, boosted by the technology sector as Nvidia chief Jensen Huang’s speech fueled optimism in artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, with chip stocks TSMC and Tokyo Electron among the biggest contributors. Japan led gains among regional markets, followed by Taiwan. Hong Kong shares fell after the US blacklisted Tencent and other companies. Optimism for global AI-related stocks was heightened as Huang unveiled new products featuring Nvidia’s Blackwell chips at the CES trade show in Las Vegas. Shares of chipmakers and related companies have been benefitting from robust public and private investment into AI infrastructure, as well as hopes for improvement in broader tech demand.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%, falling for a third day as investors keep a close eye on trade tensions after US President-elect Trump denied a report that he might moderate plans for across-the-board tariffs. Washington’s move to blacklist some Chinese companies, including Tencent Holdings, served as another reminder of growing frictions. Prior to this week’s pullback, the dollar had surged more than 7% over a three-month period as traders’ anticipated that future US policies would dent global trade and boost the local economy. That said, the greenback’s retreat over the past couple of days doesn’t constitute a lasting trend, said Jacques Henry, head of cross-asset research at Silex in Geneva. “The dollar is in a rising cycle due to the resilience of its economy that’s likely to last,” he said. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar continued its advance following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as head of the Liberal Party. The yen edged off a six-month low after Japan’s finance minister warned about “excessive” FX movements. Monday’s political headlines triggered the most hectic trading day in nearly two months in the currency options markets. Volumes surged to $108 billion by the close of trade, surpassing the activity seen on the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement days last month, according to data from Depository Trust and Clearing Corp.

Treasuries are lower with front-end yields richer by around 1bp and long-end yields slightly cheaper. The Treasury curve extends steepening trend with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads wider by more than 1bp on the day; US 10-year yield around 4.63% is little changed after touching 4.64%, the highest level since May. German yield curve has more pronounced steepening move following euro-area inflation figures for December and bond sales by Germany and Austria. Gilts lag after soft demand for a UK 30-year auction. Focal points of US session include November JOLTS job openings, December ISM services index and 10-year note auction that may draw highest yield since 2007. Meanwhile, the UK’s long-term borrowing costs surged to the highest level since 1998 as investors grapple with a flood of bond sales this year. The yield on 30-year gilts climbed four basis points to 5.22% after a sale of same-maturity securities.

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI up 0.2% to $73.70. Spot gold adds $7 to  $2,644/oz.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,024.00
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 513.38
• MXAP up 0.6% to 182.34
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 572.71
• Nikkei up 2.0% to 40,083.30
• Topix up 1.1% to 2,786.57
• Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 19,447.58
• Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,229.64
• Sensex up 0.3% to 78,201.48
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,285.10
• Kospi up 0.1% to 2,492.10
• German 10Y yield up 1.5 bps at 2.46%
• Euro up 0.4% to $1.0428
• Brent Futures little changed at $76.35/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,642.55
• US Dollar Index down 0.31% to 107.93

Top Overnight News

• Fed Governor Bowman is reportedly the top candidate to replace Fed’s Barr as Vice Chair of Supervision: Semafor.
• New York judge denied US President-elect Trump’s request to delay sentencing in hush money case: RTRS
• US President-elect Trump commented on Truth Social that many people in Canada love being the 51st state and the US can no longer suffer the massive trade deficits and subsidies Canada needs to stay afloat. Furthermore, he stated if Canada merged with the US, there would be no tariffs, taxes would go down, and they would be completely secure from the threat of Russian and Chinese ships constantly surrounding them.
• Canada reportedly considers an early release of retaliatory tariffs against the US: Globe and Mail.
• China Foreign Ministry on US President-elect Trump talking to President Xi through aides, about the exchanges between China/US, says China attaches importance to the remarks of Trump.
• Chinese-state sponsored hackers penetrated the executive branch of the Philippines government and stole sensitive data as part of a years-long campaign, people familiar said. BBG
• The yen retreated from a six-month low. Japan Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated Tokyo’s discomfort over excessive foreign exchange moves and put speculators on notice that authorities are ready to act to stabilize a faltering yen. RTRS
• Eurozone CPI for Dec was right inline w/the Street at +2.4% headline (up from +2.2% in Nov) and +2.7% core (flat vs. Nov) BBG.
• Eurozone inflation expectations rise according to the latest ECB survey, climbing from 2.5% to 2.6% over 12 months and from 2.1% to 2.4% over 36 months (the 2.4% is the highest since Jul 2024). ECB
• Nvidia shares rose premarket (~+2%) after it unveiled a new lineup including gaming chips and a $3,000 desktop computer. The chipmaker also announced partnerships with Toyota and Uber, showcasing its vision for AI-powered robots, factories and self-driving vehicles. BBG
• MU (Micron) +4.82% after Jensen Huang disclosed that Micron is providing the memory chips for NVDA’s newest GPUs. BBG
• Mark Carney said he’s considering entering the race to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s PM. The former BOC and BOE chief, who is chair of Bloomberg Inc. and Brookfield Asset Management, joins a list of possible contenders with ex-Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. BBG
• US corporate bankruptcies have hit their highest level since the aftermath of the global financial crisis as elevated interest rates and weakened consumer demand punish struggling groups. At least 686 US companies filed for bankruptcy in 2024, up about 8 per cent from 2023 and higher than any year since the 828 filings in 2010. FT
• Congress won’t be able to dial back portions of Biden’s 2021 infrastructure law to pay for other priorities according to a memo, dealing a blow to the GOP’s fiscal ambitions. Politico

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech strength stateside where Nvidia briefly reclaimed the largest market cap title and closed at a fresh record. ASX 200 eked mild gains as strength in tech and telecoms picked up the slack from the weakness in the utilities, miners and materials sectors, while advances were limited amid disappointing Building Approvals data which showed a wider-than-expected contraction. Nikkei 225 outperformed on a break above the 40,000 level with the index propelled by a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured from early in the session with heavy losses in Hong Kong after the Pentagon added several companies including Tencent (700 HK) and CATL to the US list of firms alleged to help Beijing’s military, while the downside in the mainland was gradually cushioned following the announcement that China is to hold a briefing on consumer goods trade-in program on Wednesday involving officials from the PBoC, MoF and NDRC.

Top Asian news

• US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and discussed economic developments, while she raised issues of concern including China’s non-market policies and industrial overcapacity, as well as expressed serious concern about ‘malicious’ cyber activity by Chinese state-sponsored actors. Furthermore, she underscored ‘significant consequences’ facing Chinese companies for material support to Russia, according to Reuters.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they are seeing one-sided and sudden FX moves. He reiterated that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Kato said he is alarmed over FX moves including those driven by speculators and will take appropriate action against excessive moves, while he also commented that they cannot rule out the chance of Japan going back to deflation.
• Japan’s Keizai Doyukai (business lobby) Chief Ninami says wage growth this year at big firms will likely match levels similar to that of last year.
• Japan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry Head says the number of small/medium-sized firms which will raise wages should rise slightly this year.

European bourses opened mostly in the red, but sentiment lifted slowly as the morning progressed to display a more mixed picture in Europe. European sectors began the morning with a slight negative bias, but now display a more mixed picture. Financial Services takes the top spot, joined closely by Retail and then by Basic Resources to complete the top 3. The latter is buoyed by gains in underlying metals prices. Banks sit at the foot of the pile, but with losses to a similar magnitude as Insurance and Healthcare.

Top European news

• Barclays UK December consumer spending was flat Y/Y compared to December 2023.
• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Nov): See inflation in next 12 months at 2.6% (prev. 2.5%); 3y ahead sees 2.4% (prev. 2.1%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, to stand at -1.3% in November, compared with -1.1% in October.

FX

• USD is softer vs. all peers with DXY down for a third consecutive session. Recent price action for the Greenback has been dictated by the recent Washington Post report that Trump’s tariff plans may not be as bad as initially feared. Whilst Trump did later attempt to downplay this, ING is of the view that “there is no smoke without fire”. For today’s docket, attention will be on ISM services PMI and JOLTS data ahead of NFP on Friday. DXY has been as low as 107.84 but is holding above yesterday’s 107.75.
• EUR remains supported after being catapulted from a 1.0294 base yesterday in the wake of reports that the Trump tariff programme may be less stringent than initially feared. The macro focus has been on the December Eurozone inflation report which showed headline HICP advancing to 2.4% from 2.2% as expected and the super-core rate holding steady at 2.7%. Some minor softness was observed in EUR/USD amid expectations of a potentially hotter figure given the outturn for Germany yesterday; currently 1.0430.
• JPY is flat vs. the USD after USD/JPY reached its highest level since July during APAC trade at 158.41. This subsequently triggered some jawboning from Japan’s Finance Minister Kato who noted they are recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves and reiterated to take appropriate action against excessive moves. Elsewhere, Barclays have shifted their BoJ view and now see the Bank hiking in March and October vs. previous forecast of January and July
• GBP has extended on yesterday’s tariff-induced gains vs. the USD with major fresh macro drivers for the UK on the light side today. As such, Cable has eclipsed yesterday’s peak at 1.2550 but has failed to sustain a move above its 21DMA at 1.2573.
• Antipodeans are both at the top of the G10 leaderboard with markets continuing to deliberate the prospect of a potentially more friendly tariff programme by the Trump regime.
• CHF is a touch softer vs. the EUR post-Swiss CPI metrics. Y/Y headline CPI fell to 0.6% from 0.7% as expected, whilst the core rate fell to 0.7% from 0.9% (expected 0.8%). The 0.6% outturn means that the average across Q4 as a whole came in around 0.63% and is shy of SNB’s 0.7% projection for Q4. EUR/CHF moved back onto a 0.94 handle following the data and is eyeing the 30th December peak at 0.9441.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1879 vs exp. 7.2994 (prev. 7.1876)

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat, in a narrow 108-13+ to 108-20 band. Complex awaits US data incl. JOLTS and ISM Services alongside Fed’s Barkin (expected to reiterate remarks from 3rd Jan.) before 10yr supply. Last night’s 3yr auction was soft overall and weighed on USTs into settlement.
• Bunds pressured in-fitting with the above and the tentatively constructive European risk tone ahead of Flash HICP. Before that, the December HICP Y/Y figure for France came in cooler than newswire consensus though hotter than the prior.
• Thereafter, EGBs saw fleeting upside on the EZ data which came in in-line for the headline though with services and core slightly hot, upside perhaps driven by expectations for a hotter headline post-Germany; though, the Bunds upside proved shortlived.
• Gilts are underperforming. UK specifics light aside from Construction PMI which spurred no move and a strong BRC Retail Sales report for December, the latter perhaps weighing on Gilts. Given the pressure, which has taken Gilts to a 91.68 trough just above last week’s 91.65 base and the contract low a tick below at 91.64, yields are firmer across the curve with the 30yr above 5.21% and at its highest since 1998. A slightly soft, but robust overall, UK auction spurred little move in Gilts.
• UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.375% 2054 Gilt: b/c 2.75x (prev. 3.0x), average yield 5.198% (prev. 4.747%) & tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.4bps).
• Germany sells EUR 3.472bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.00% 2026 Schatz: b/c 2.30x (prev. 2.30x), average yield 2.18% (prev. 1.94%) & retention 22.8% (prev. 19.84%).

Commodities

• A relatively choppy start to the session for the crude complex, though benchmarks currently resides near the bottom end of the day’s ranges. Macro developments have been light thus far, so focus will likely be on US ISM Services PMI alongside JOLTS Job Openings. Brent’Mar currently towards the lower end of a USD 75.91-76.36/bbl range.
• Gold is firmer but only modestly so. Upside as a result of the soft USD and relatively tepid risk tone thus far. Furthermore, a modest bullish reaction was seen on China’s monthly reserves figures, which showed the second consecutive monthly increase in gold reserves. At the upper-end of USD 2632-2646/oz parameters, which is entirely within but towards the top-end of Monday’s parameters.
• Copper is modestly firmer, taking impetus from the softer USD and perhaps from the European risk tone, though that has been slightly more tentative thus far. 3M LME Copper holding above the USD 9k handle.
• BofA says natgas balances likely to tighten in 2025 as 2.5 BCF/D of demand growth outruns the 2.1 BCF/D of supply growth, supporting the bullish outlook

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official says Israel is fully committed to conclude a hostage deal; the only way to get a deal is to put pressure on Hamas
• Israeli army said it bombed a cell of militants in the town of Tammun, south of Tubas, in the northern West Bank, according to Al Jazeera.
• Hamas leader said they asked for maps outlining the withdrawal process and the atmosphere pointing to an integrated deal to end the war in Gaza, according to Asharq News.
• “Iranian media report that the first phase of manoeuvres to test the defense systems of the Natanz nuclear facility has begun”, according to journalist Elster.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea confirmed Monday’s launch of a new hypersonic missile, while it was separately reported that North Korea plans to launch an ICBM before the Trump inauguration, according to Chosun Ilbo. In relevant news, South Korean acting President Choi said they are to respond sternly to North Korean provocation and that North Korea missile test poses a significant security threat.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Nov. Trade Balance, est. -$78.3b, prior -$73.8b
• 10:00: Nov. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 7.74m, prior 7.74m
  • Nov. JOLTS Layoffs Rate, prior 1.0%
  • Nov. JOLTS Layoffs Level, prior 1.63m
  • Nov. JOLTS Quits Rate, prior 2.1%
  • Nov. JOLTS Quits Level, prior 3.33m
  • Nov. JOLTS Job Openings Rate, est. 4.6%, prior 4.6%
• 10:00: Dec. ISM Services Index, est. 53.5, prior 52.1
  • Dec. ISM Services Employment, est. 51.4, prior 51.5
  • Dec. ISM Services New Orders, est. 54.2, prior 53.7
  • Dec. ISM Services Prices Paid, est. 57.5, prior 58.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Helsinki where I’ve started my work year pretty much every year (ex-Covid) for the last 25. It’s cold but I’m acclimatised as I’m just back from a very snowy ski trip in the Alps which unfortunately coincided with a pretty dreadful bout of flu or perhaps Covid. My wife and I spent the entire two weeks drained and coughing and spluttering 24/7 which wasn’t fun in the cold. The kids and Brontë didn’t adjust their demands accordingly though so it was hard work. I could do with a fresh two week holiday to recover.

Talking of two weeks, yesterday it was only that length of time until Donald Trump’s inauguration. Ahead of that, tariffs were back in focus yesterday, as investors faced up to competing theories about how aggressively the new administration would increase them. The big moves over the last 24 hours began with a Washington Post report, which said that Trump’s aides were looking at a plan for universal tariffs on all countries, but just covering critical imports rather than everything. The article cited “three people familiar with the matter”, and led to an immediate market reaction, as investors felt this was less aggressive than some of the earlier plans that had been suggested. After all, this would only put tariffs on sectors that were seen as critical for national or economic security, and the article led to an immediate rally in Treasuries and a weakening in the US Dollar.

But shortly after, that market reaction unwounded as Trump posted on Truth Social that the story “incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong.” So that led to a fresh bout of concern that Trump was still going to pursue a more aggressive tariff agenda, which in turn would lead to higher inflation and a more hawkish Fed. So over the course of this episode yesterday, the 10yr Treasury yield went from 4.61% before the article, to a low of 4.57% afterwards, before bouncing back after Trump’s post to close at 4.63%. The selloff was particularly clear at the long end of the curve, and it meant the 2s10s curve steepened to 35.1bps, the steepest since May 2022. 30yr US yields (4.85%) closed at 14-month highs. The next test will be today’s JOLTS and services ISM.

Those concerns about higher inflation then got fresh support from Germany’s flash CPI release, which surprised on the upside in December. It showed headline inflation rising to an 11-month high of +2.9% on the EU-harmonised measure, which was three-tenths above consensus. Moreover, it came after the Spanish CPI print also surprised on the upside last week, so that’s raising concerns about the Euro Area-wide release that’s coming out today. Indeed, yields on 10yr bunds were up +2.4bps to 2.45%, which is their highest level since July. Bear in mind as well that the 10yr bund yield has already risen for 5 consecutive weeks. So if there’s a 6th rise this week, that would be the longest run of weekly gains since 2022, back when inflation was raging and the ECB were hiking by 75bps per meeting. Our European economists have started the year with a blog series on some of the most important drivers for the continent in 2025. Part one from yesterday is here and part two this morning (link here) looks at inflation which is topical given today’s Euro Area print.

Despite all the concerns about inflation and tariffs, equities actually managed to put in a solid session on both sides of the Atlantic. The gains were stronger in Europe, with the STOXX 600 up +0.95%, whilst the CAC 40 (+2.24%) posted its strongest daily advance since September. Over in the US, the S&P 500 (+0.55%) saw a more moderate gain, rising as much as +1.3% intra-day but then losing some steam as the session went on. That rise was led by the big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 up +1.92% as Nvidia (+3.43%) reached a new all-time high with a market cap of $3.66trn. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang in his keynote speech at the CES 2025 conference (after the closing bell) announced a raft of new chips, software and services to accelerate AI adoption in humanoid robots and self-driving cars and trucks. So there is seemingly no end to their ambition and excitement about tech and AI as we start 2025. By contrast, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down -0.05% yesterday, as defensive sectors including utilities (-1.10%) and consumer staples (-0.98%) underperformed. So it was by no means a uniformly rosy picture.

The other notable underperformer was the US dollar, with the broad dollar index falling by -0.67% yesterday. It had been down as much as -1.2% after the Washington Post story before partially recovering after Trump’s retort. In turn, the euro saw its best day against the greenback in six weeks. That said, at 1.0387 it is still down by -7% since late September, having fallen to a 2-year low last Thursday.

Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning outside of China. The Nikkei (+1.91%) is leading gains and is making a strong comeback after closing over -1% lower on the first trading day of 2025 on Monday. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.34%) is paring back its initial stronger gains after climbing over +1% to surpass the 2,500 level for the first time since December 16. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.33%) is also edging higher. On the otherside of the ledger, Chinese stocks are lagging this morning with the Hang Seng (-2.17%) emerging as the biggest underperformer while the Shanghai Composite (-0.32%) and the CSI (-0.08%) are also trading in negative territory after the US labelled Tencent Holding Ltd. and Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd. (CATL) – the world’s largest electric vehicle battery maker – as companies with alleged links to the Chinese military. Outside of Asia, S&P 500 (-0.15%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.27%) futures are seeing minor losses.

In FX, the Japanese yen (-0.30%) is weakening for the second straight session, trading at 158.11 against the dollar, its weakest level since July even after Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government will take appropriate action against sudden foreign exchange moves.

Elsewhere yesterday, there were major political headlines out of Canada, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he’d be resigning as Liberal Party leader. The move follows significant pressure from other Liberal MPs on Trudeau to resign, and his position became increasingly uncertain after his Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland resigned last month. Trudeau will stay on as PM until a new leader is picked, and the Canadian parliament will be prorogued until March 24th in the meantime. A federal election is due to be held in Canada by October but may come sooner if opposition parties push for a confidence vote once parliament reconvenes. The Liberals are currently well behind the opposition Conservatives in the polls, with CBC’s tracker putting the Conservatives on 44% and the Liberals on just 20%.

Finally, we also got a bit of Fedspeak yesterday, with Governor Cook echoing the tone of other speakers this week. She said that “we can afford to proceed more cautiously with further cuts”, but that it was still “appropriate to move the policy rate toward a more neutral stance”. There was also some unexpected news from the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, who said he would step down as Vice Chair for Supervision at the end of February, or an earlier time if a successor was confirmed. However, Barr said he would continue to serve on the Fed’s Board of Governors.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services index for December, the JOLTS report for November, and the trade balance for November. In the Euro Area, we’ll also get the flash CPI release for December, and the unemployment rate for November. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, and get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for November.

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJ Media,

In yet another move to tarnish his presidential legacy while channeling his former boss Barack Obama, Joe Biden has authorized the transfer of 11 Gitmo terrorists to Oman. The Middle Eastern nation has agreed to assist with their resettlement and oversee security monitoring.

We’ve seen this before and we know how it usually turns out.

“The United States appreciates the willingness of the government of Oman and other partners to support ongoing U.S. efforts focused on responsibly reducing the detainee population and ultimately closing the Guantanamo Bay facility,” the Department of Defense said in a statement. This transfer leaves a mere 15 detainees at Gitmo.

“In recent weeks, the Pentagon had transferred out four other detainees from Guantanamo including a detainee who was brought to the detention facility at the base in Cuba the day that it opened, but was never charged,” ABC News reports. 

The transfer of the 11 Yemeni detainees is the largest transfer to take place under President Joe Biden’s administration.

Of the remaining 15 detainees still at Guantanamo Bay, three are eligible for transfer; three are eligible for a Periodic Review Board; seven are involved in the military commissions process; and two detainees have been convicted and sentenced by military commissions.

Among the detainees who will remain at Guantanamo is Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, the alleged mastermind of the 9/11 attack, who on Friday will appear at a hearing at the base where he is expected to plead guilty in return for the death penalty being withdrawn. The following week, two other 9/11 plotters are expected to plead guilty under the same plea agreement.

A statement from the Pentagon revealed that on September 15, 2023, Austin officially notified Congress of his plans to transfer the 11 Yemeni detainees to Oman. In coordination with Omani authorities, all necessary preparations for the transfer were successfully carried out.

This news comes on the heels of a military appeals court upholding the decision that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin could not undo the plea agreements made with Mohammad, Walid Muhammad Salih Mubarak bin ’Attash, and Mustafa Ahmed Adam al Hawsawi.

According to NPR, “Monday’s transfers were originally scheduled to happen in October 2023, but were halted at the last minute due to concerns in Congress about instability in the Middle East following the Hamas attack on Israel.“

However, the fact that the plan was “resurrected during President Biden’s final two weeks in office signals a last-ditch effort by his administration to shrink Guantánamo’s prisoner population and get closer to his goal of trying to close the facility.”

We’ve seen this story unfold time and time again, and we can all make a pretty good guess as to how this will play out. Each one of these terrorists will inevitably return to the battlefield, further endangering American lives and destabilizing the region. So why, after nearly four years in office, is Joe Biden making this decision now? Why didn’t he act sooner—perhaps when he first took office or before the 2024 election? The answer is painfully clear: this is a move designed to please the radical left, a political gesture with little regard for national security.