In a significant boost to Haiti’s efforts to combat escalating gang violence, approximately 150 military police officers from Central America have been deployed to aid the beleaguered Caribbean nation. This development marks a crucial step in the international community’s ongoing efforts to restore stability and order in Haiti, where daily life has been severely disrupted by criminal gangs, AP reports.

The recent deployment included around 75 security officers from Guatemala, who arrived on Saturday at the Toussaint Louverture International Airport. They were welcomed by Godfrey Otunge, the Kenyan commander of the U.N.-backed mission tasked with stabilizing the country. The mission, struggling for months amid worsening conditions, sees this reinforcement as a pivotal moment in their operations.

“The gangs have only two choices: surrender, lay down their weapons, and face justice, or face us in the field,” said Otunge at an airport ceremony in Port-au-Prince. “With the addition of the Guatemalan and El Salvador forces, the gangs will have nowhere to hide. We will root them out of their enclave.”

A similarly sized contingent from El Salvador arrived a day earlier aboard a U.S. Air Force aircraft, greeted by top Haitian officials and U.S. Ambassador Dennis Hankins. This collaborative international effort underscores the severity of the situation in Haiti, where gangs are estimated to control about 85% of the capital, Port-au-Prince.

The urgency of the situation was highlighted by a shocking incident on Christmas Eve, when gunmen attacked a crowd gathered for the reopening of Haiti’s largest public hospital, previously closed due to gang rampage. The attack resulted in the deaths of two journalists and a police officer, signaling a distressing escalation in gang boldness and violence.

Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, coordinated gang attacks have increased, targeting prisons, police stations, and even the main international airport.

Mass murder is frequently used to punish neighborhoods accused of undermining a gang — as was the case with an October massacre that killed at least 70 people, including women and children, in Pont-Sondé, 60 miles north of Port-au-Prince. More than 700,000 Haitians have fled their homes, and half live in hunger as gangs control ports and thwart food and fuel distribution.  

Prior to this week’s reinforcements, the international mission comprised approximately 400 security officers predominantly from Kenya, with additional pledges of personnel from nations including the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Benin, and Chad.

Meanwhile in December, a Haitian warlord ordered the massacre of 184 mostly elderly residents, who were slashed, hacked, or shot to death, according to the Haitian Times.

In a statement issued via Facebook, Haiti’s feeble government said “A red line has been crossed, and the state will mobilize all its forces to track down and eliminate these criminals. Justice will strike with exemplary rigor.” 

Given Haiti’s police forces have been plagued by mass desertions amid the country’s deep descent into chaos, that promise rings hollow to say the least. “These latest killings bring the death toll in Haiti this year to a staggering number of 5,000,” said UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk last month.

Authored by Liz Heflin via Remix News,

Germany could enter its third year of economic recession in 2025, according to a report out of the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI), cited by the Mandiner news portal, meaning it will face the longest economic crisis in its post-World War II history. 

Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, may shrink by 0.1 percent this year after a contraction of 0.3 percent in 2024 and 2023.

“The German economy is in the midst of the biggest crisis in post-war history,” said Bert Rürup, chief economist at HRI.

“The pandemic, the energy crisis, and inflation have made Germans poorer on average.”

The HRI is not alone.

In December, the German central bank lowered its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.2 percent from 1.1 percent forecast in June. 

According to surveys, German citizens also say they are most worried about the economy ahead of the snap election on Feb. 23. 

The dismal economic performance does not bode well for Minister of Economic Affairs Robert Habeck, who holds a degree in philosophy and is the Greens candidate for chancellor in the upcoming election.

Some have joked that if Habeck were to become chancellor, Germany would soon need economic aid.

The Nius news agency has also reported on data from the credit agency Creditreform, which reported there were almost a quarter more corporate bankruptcies in 2024 versus 2023, with 22,400 companies becoming insolvent, the highest number since 2015.

The number of consumer bankruptcies increased by 8.5 percent to just over 72,000 as well. 

Meanwhile, credit insurer Allianz Trade expects even more bankruptcies in 2025, including a higher number of consumer bankruptcies. 

The mood in industry, especially manufacturing, is particularly bad, says Nius, with nearly twice as many pessimistic about 2025 as those who have a more optimistic outlook.

In December, the Ifo business climate index continued to slide, reaching its lowest level since May 2020. Hardly a week goes by without an industrial group announcing job cuts, and a slowdown in investment means even fewer jobs, they noted.

In terms of layoffs, manufacturing and construction have been the hardest hit. 

While the HRI report shows that employment increased slightly to 46.1 million people last year, the group now expects a decline of around 10,000 employed people per month.

HRI also sees no signs of an uptick in consumption, with inflation eating into disposable income despite gradually rising real wages. According to an Ipsos survey from December, only 38 percent of Germans believe the country is on the right track overall.

Read more here…

Ukraine is among the first countries in Europe to declare it is working to re-establish diplomatic ties with Damascus and that it will soon recognize post-Assad Syria under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

President Zelensky in last week’s comments made no mention that a US-designated terrorist organization which is an offshoot of al-Qaeda is running things in Damascus, as this is apparently but a minor detail to him.

“We are preparing to renew our diplomatic relations with Syria and our cooperation within international organizations. I want to thank our intelligence for the security framework of these contacts,” Zelensky said.

The comments followed closely on the heels of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha visiting Syria to meet with HTS officials, including the jihadist group’s head Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

The Ukrainian government has long acknowledged that it provided drone and intelligence support for months to the originally Idlib-based HTS.

Ukrainian officials had previously openly boasted that they would assist in hitting Russian assets and bases in Syria, in order to bog its forces down there and distract the top Russian command from the Ukrainian front lines.

Small drone warfare has been described by many analysts to have been a key component further demoralizing Syrian Army positions after Assad’s military and state institutions had been essentially hollowed out after years of grinding war and crippling Western sanctions.

Ukraine first severed diplomatic relations with Syria in 2022. It was triggered by then President Bashar-al Assad recognizing Russian sovereignty over the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics in eastern Ukraine.

“Certainly the Syrian people and the Ukrainian people have the same experience and the same suffering that we endured over 14 years,” an HTS representative said during last Monday’s visit of the Ukrainian delegation.

1. Wear Zelensky’s outfit

2. Trim your beard

3. Declare you love diversity after years of persecuting minorities and imposing barbaric extremist rule over the population you ruled over in Syria

4. Show no opposition to Israel

Jolani’s step by step guide to being removed from… pic.twitter.com/2qzNF9lV08

— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi) December 10, 2024

Ukraine last month dispatched 500 tonnes of food aid to Syria, which had long been suffering under US-led sanctions and a war-ravaged economy.

At this point, it’s anything but clear whether the US will lift the sanctions, which ultimately harms the whole of the Syrian populace no matter their political affiliation.

Authored by Lucas Leiroz,

With the ban on the flow of Russian gas to Europe through Ukrainian territory, little remains before the absolute economic and social collapse of the European continent…

Finally, energy cooperation between Russia and Europe is (almost) completely over. After nearly three years of sanctions and sabotage, the bilateral Moscow-EU energy partnership suffered its greatest historical blow. Kiev fulfilled its promise not to extend its contract with Gazprom, which was allowing the arrival of Russian gas to Europe, then creating an extremely uncomfortable energy insecurity situation for its own “partners” in the European Union.

On the morning of the first day of 2025, the Russian Federation stopped supplying gas to European buyers via Ukraine. Even amidst the conflict, the Russian Gazprom and Ukrainian Naftogaz had kept in operation an energy transit agreement signed in 2020, which expired on the last day of 2024. Previously, Kiev had already announced it was unwilling to renew the contract with Gazprom, although some European countries repeatedly asked Ukraine to do so.

Despite the sanctions imposed on Russia since 2022, some European countries continued benefiting from the import of Russian gas, particularly Slovakia and Hungary – nations that refused to participate in the Western-sponsored anti-Russian boycott – as well as Austria, a country historically neutral in Europe’s geopolitical and military disputes. Other nations, even adhering to the sanctions, continued hypocritically receiving Russian gas, such as Italy, Poland, Romania, and Moldova. There were also cases of gas resale, with receiving nations re-exporting the commodity to countries seeking to bypass the sanctions.

With the end of the Ukrainian route, all these states lost any guarantee of a safe energy source – precisely during winter, the time of year when gas consumption in Europe is at its highest. Obviously, there are currently energy reserves that may be enough to cope with the challenges of the current season, but the situation will progressively become more critical over time. European nations will have to find new sources of gas or expand the use of the only two remaining routes for Russian gas (via Turkey and the Black Sea). Recent indicators show a substantial rise in gas prices among Asian exporters. Ankara is also expected to take the opportunity to gain more profits from its pipeline.

There is currently hope among Europeans for a cheap gas supply through the long-awaited Qatari-Turkish pipeline project via Syria. With the fall of Bashar al Assad’s legitimate government, energy giants from Turkey and the Gulf have revived the proposal, although they are waiting for domestic pacification in Syria by the Al-Qaeda junta to begin the construction. Some optimistic analysts in Europe believe this would be the antidote to Europe’s dependency on Russian gas – or Asian and American, as in the current circumstances.

The main problem with this hope is believing in the goodwill of the Western hawks to “pacify Syria.” Without Assad, Damascus became a “failed state,” with territory divided between different factions in constant hostilities. It is unlikely this will change – simply because, despite the tactical operators of the Syrian crisis (Turkey and Qatar) wanting pacification, the strategic mentors (Israel and the USA) are not interested. Tel Aviv prefers a polarized and war-torn Syria, unable to do anything to prevent territorial progress in the Golan and beyond. Washington, which is subservient to Israeli interests through the international Zionist lobby, is interested in the same – along with, of course, fostering Kurdish terrorists to worsen the internal Syrian situation even further.

In other words, Western analysts still do not understand that the decision-makers of the unipolar axis simply do not want to solve Europe’s problems. It is not in the US’ interest that its “partners” in Europe regain cheap energy and a strong industrial base. For Washington, the collapse of Europe is not a tragedy but a strategic goal, whose roots lie in the science of geopolitics itself. According to the fundamentals of Western geopolitics, Russian-European integration would be disastrous for the US-UK Atlantic axis. Therefore, in the face of Russia’s imminent military victory and Moscow’s rehabilitation as a Eurasian geopolitical power, the Americans and the British have adopted a “scorched earth” strategy in Europe.

Sanctions, the terrorist attack on Nord Stream, and the closure of the Ukrainian route to Europe are events that are part of the same strategic context: in all these cases, Anglo-American strategists want to provoke an energy collapse in Europe to enable deindustrialization and the subsequent economic and social crisis. The final goal is a ruined Europe, not only unwilling but also incapable of establishing any future strategic ties with Moscow.

With the fall of the Ukrainian gas route, it can be said that the US won an important battle in its economic war against Europe. The total collapse is merely a matter of time.

Germany’s solar industry is in “a lot of distress” a new report from Financial Times highlighted last week.

A slump in consumer demand has led to bankruptcies and layoffs in Europe’s largest rooftop solar market. Many installation and distribution companies have gone under, been acquired, or had to change strategies.

The oversupply of panels has driven prices down for consumers, but industry leaders warn it is deterring investors and jeopardizing a key sector for Europe’s climate goals, according to Financial Times. 

Dries Acke, deputy chief executive of industry lobby group SolarPower Europe commented: “To some extent this is consolidation after a few exceptional years. You cannot have a green transition with red numbers. The sector needs to be profitable.”

Germany’s demand for solar panels surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, driven by soaring energy costs. Manufacturers expanded rapidly, and installations hit 15GW in 2023, a European record. However, growth slowed in 2024, with 16GW installed, as residential demand dropped despite gains in commercial and solar farms.

This slowdown, amid a crowded market, challenges Germany’s goal of 19GW annually through 2030 to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, according to the FT.

The solar market slowdown, also affecting Belgium and the Netherlands, is driven by rising interest rates increasing financing costs and a flood of cheap Chinese panels creating intense competition. European manufacturers like Meyer Burger face pressure, with layoffs and squeezed margins, while subsidies are being reduced.

The FT report noted that start-up Zolar, backed by €300mn in funding, cut over half its workforce and exited direct sales to homeowners due to lower energy prices reducing solar’s appeal. CEO Jamie Heywood noted the reduced financial incentive despite falling installation costs.

Zolar is shifting to support small local installers, which dominate Germany’s solar market.

Germany’s solar industry faces challenges, with companies like Eigensonne declaring bankruptcy and ESS Kempfle restructuring amid rising costs and reduced demand. Major players like Enpal and 1Komma5, valued at €2.2bn and €1bn respectively, have adapted.

Enpal expanded into heat pumps and smart meters, while 1Komma5 focused on energy optimization and battery development. Despite a tough market, balcony solar systems remain popular, and industry leaders see long-term growth potential, with millions of rooftops untapped.

Experts predict a slow recovery by 2030 but warn of continued short-term turbulence in the sector.

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Norway’s oil and gas investment is expected to reach a record high in 2025, driven by new exploration activity and increased demand for Norwegian gas.

• While Norway is a leader in renewable energy, it continues to invest heavily in oil and gas production, raising concerns about its climate commitments.

• Norway aims to balance its oil and gas production with decarbonization efforts through electrification and investments in renewable energy projects both domestically and internationally.

After hitting record highs this year, Norway’s oil and gas investment is expected to grow even higher in 2025. Greater development activity on new projects and the cost of inflation have contributed heavily to the increase in Norway’s oil and gas investment in 2024. Norway’s oil and gas investment is expected to total around $22.9 billion this year, marking an all-time high, according to the country’s statistics office. The previous record was $20.4 billion in 2014 when oil prices were very high and companies were still spending heavily on new oil and gas projects. The increase in investment supported new exploration activity, pipeline transportation, and shutdown and removal. 

The Scandinavian oil superpower is expected to continue investing heavily in fossil fuels in the coming years. Oil and gas companies operating in Norway expect to invest an estimated $24.68 billion in 2025, the industry association Offshore Norge announced in December. The group surveyed 14 companies, including Equinor, Aker, Vår Energi, ConocoPhillips, and Shell, representing almost the entirety of the country’s oil and gas output. Companies plan to commence drilling on 45 exploration wells in Norwegian waters in 2025, an increase from 41 this year and the highest level since 2019. 

The increase in new exploration projects reflects the growth in demand for natural gas from Norway, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian oil. Norway is Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, with an output of more than 4 million bpd, and the government aims to continue increasing production for several decades. 

In December, Vår Energi and Equinor announced they had made a new oil discovery at their Cerisa exploration well near an operational asset in the Barents Sea. The operators estimate the discovery holds between 1.3 and 4.8 million standard cubic meters of recoverable oil equivalent. This marked the fourth find in a row in the region. Alongside previous discoveries in Gjøa North and Ofelia/Kyrre, Cerisa could be tied into the Gjøa field using existing infrastructure in the area. This would provide combined estimated gross recoverable resources of up to 110 MMboe.

In addition to new exploration activities in Norway’s waters, Equinor also announced plans in December for a new 50/50 joint venture with Shell that will see the merging of their U.K. fossil fuel assets to create the largest independent oil and gas producer in the U.K. North Sea. The two companies announced in a joint statement that the new venture will help “sustain domestic oil and gas production and security of energy supply in the U.K.” The statement went on to say, “With the once prolific basin now maturing and production naturally declining, the combination of portfolios and expertise will allow continued economic recovery of this vital U.K. resource.”

Norway has justified its oil and gas expansion by investing in ‘low-carbon’ oil projects, which incorporate decarbonization techniques, as well as through its heavy investment in green energy projects. Norway is now the largest and lowest emissions supplier of oil and gas in Europe. This is largely thanks to the electrification of the country’s upstream operations, using Norway’s extensive hydropower. By 2026, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that over 60 percent of Norwegian production will be electrified.

New energy market intelligence research from Rystad’s Palzor Shenga and Elliot Busby suggests that the electrification of fossil fuel operations can significantly reduce upstream oil and gas emissions. The research shows that over 80 percent of emissions generated from upstream oil and gas production facilities can be cut by using electricity from renewable resources or natural gas that would otherwise be flared.

Shenga, the vice president of upstream research at Rystad, stated, “As the world confronts the pressing issue of climate change, the oil and gas industry is under increasing pressure to minimize its carbon footprint and align its practices with global sustainability objectives. Where it’s possible and economically viable, electrification has great potential to lower the industry’s emissions while maintaining production output.”

Norway has invested heavily in renewable energy in recent years. Its grid runs almost entirely on green energy sources, and it has also funded projects in other parts of the world. For example, in June Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund purchased a $418 million stake in the 573 MW U.K. wind farm Race Bank. The Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing Countries also announced an investment of $19.9 million in three wind farms with a total capacity of 420 MW in South Africa, to be built by EDF Renewables. 

Nonetheless, many question whether Norway should be seen as a climate hero or as a carbon villain. The International Energy Agency has repeatedly said that further fossil fuel exploration is not compatible with its scenarios for reaching net zero emissions by 2050, meaning that Norway’s oil and gas investment is at odds with its aims for a green transition, despite its decarbonization and carbon offset efforts. Yet it seems that Norway wants to have its cake and eat it by continuing to invest heavily in oil and gas while also providing significant funding for decarbonization and a green transition. 

Back on New Year’s Eve, when looking at the global tsunami of resentment and loathing at establishment politics and corrupt politicians that crushed incumbent political parties and politicians around the globe, we eyed the one person that was long overdue to be swept in the tidal wave. We are talking of course about Canada’s prime minister Justin Turdeau (sic)…

The global anti-incumbent wave has yet to claim its final victim https://t.co/nNi6C3gPRo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 31, 2024

… and we are delighted to announce that his time has now also come: citing a source, Reuters reports that Canadian Prime Minister and the world’s most iconic virtue signaling blackface, Justin Trudeau, is “increasingly likely to announce he intends to step down, though he has not made a final decision.”

The source spoke to Reuters after the Globe and Mail reported that Trudeau was expected to announce as early as Monday that he would quit as leader of Canada’s ruling Liberal Party after nine years in office.

Following the news, odds that Trudeau would be out before April surged to 97%

Trudeau’s departure would leave the party without a permanent head at a time when polls show the Liberals will be crushed by the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.

Sources told the Globe and Mail that they did not know definitely when Trudeau would announce his plans to leave but said they expect it would happen before a emergency meeting of Liberal legislators on Wednesday, and could come as soon as today.  An increasing number of Liberal parliamentarians, alarmed by a series of gloomy polls, have publicly urged Trudeau to quit.

It remains unclear whether Trudeau will leave immediately or stay on as prime minister until a new Liberal leader is selected, the Globe and Mail report added, although it is unclear how he hopes to continue after confirming defeat.

Trudeau, who was recently mocked by Trump who proposed that he become governor of the “51st state of Canada”, took over as Liberal leader in 2013 when the party was in deep trouble and had been reduced to third place in the House of Commons for the first time. If he does resign, it would prompt fresh calls for a quick election to put in place a stable government able to deal with the administration of President-elect Donald Trump for the next four years.

The prime minister has discussed with Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc whether he would be willing to step in as interim leader and prime minister, one source told the newspaper, adding that this would be unworkable if LeBlanc plans to run for the leadership.

Trudeau, 53, had been able to fend off Liberal legislators worried about the polls and the loss of safe seats in two special elections.But calls for him to step aside have grown since December, when Trudeau tried to demote Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, one of his closest cabinet allies, after she pushed back against his proposals for more spending.

Freeland quit instead and penned a letter accusing Trudeau of “political gimmicks” rather than focusing on what was best for the country.

“The country could face instability, notably from an economic threat in the potential of a 25% US tariff on Canadian imports from the incoming administration,” said a recent letter sent to the prime minister by Kody Blois, who leads a group of Liberal members from the four easternmost provinces. “Simply put, time is of the essence,” Blois said, adding that it’s “not tenable for you to remain as the leader.”

Trudeau propelled the Liberals to power in 2015 promising “sunny ways” and a progressive agenda that promoted the rights of women and a promise to fight climate change. But the everyday realities of governing gradually wore him down and like many Western leaders, the need to deal with the effects of the pandemic ate up much of his time.

Although Ottawa spent heavily to protect consumers and businesses, racking up record budget deficits, this provided little protection from public anger as prices soared.

A botched immigration policy led to hundreds of thousands of arrivals, straining an already overheated housing market.

The Canadian currency strengthened as much as 0.4% to C$1.4388 per dollar after the Globe report before paring those gains. The currency has been trading near its weakest level since March 2020 and has lost more than 7% against the greenback in the past year.

“Traders may be buying the loonie on the view that the worst is over for Canadian politics after all the recent uncertainty,” said Ken Cheung, a strategist at Mizuho Bank.

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

There are plenty of theories of what brought down Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 on Christmas Day. The plane, which was traveling from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny in the Russian region of Chechnya, ran into trouble over Russia and made an emergency landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan, in which 38 of the 67 people on board were killed.

The black boxes from the aircraft are currently being analyzed at Brazil’s Center for Investigation and Prevention of Aeronautical Accidents, but what’s already clear is that some have already made up their minds that Russia is responsible. Media in the US and Europe were of course quick to point the finger. That’s unsurprising; they blame Moscow for every stubbed toe and spilt coffee.

What is surprising is that the president of Azerbaijan — whose country has maintained strong ties with Russia despite the with-us-or-against-us Western pressure in recent years — is on the same page as the Western media.

That marks a major shift. Regardless of whether the alleged downing of the plane was part of a new stage of provocative pressure against Moscow, an accident with Russian air defense missiles, or was some sharp-winged birds, it does appear to be doing real damage to the Azerbaijani-Russian relationship.

And that could have major implications for the South Caucasus where the pivot state of Azerbaijan is the most important transport and logistics hub in the region.

Let’s take a look at what the Azerbaijan president is saying about the incident and examine what it might mean for the region.

Aliyev’s Statements

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev was once described in a Wikileaks US diplomatic cable as an unpredictable hothead similar to Sonny Corleone, but he has been anything but in recent years. While calmly playing both sides, he’s managed to retake Nagorno-Karabakh (whatever one may think about the method), become a major gas supplier to the EU, and maintain strong ties with Moscow and workable relationships with other players in the region.

His comments about the plane crash therefore raise eyebrows.

Before the black boxes are analyzed, Aliyev is putting the blame on Russia, which he says accidentally shot down the plane, continued to use electronic warfare against it afterwards, and then tried to cover it up. He might end up being right, but these are still bold proclamations coming from the president who just recently stood by Azerbaijan’s alliance with Russia. Here are the relevant quotes from his Dec. 29 interview with Azerbaijan Television at Heydar Aliyev (Ilham’s father) International Airport:

The facts indicate that the Azerbaijani civilian plane was damaged from the outside over Russian territory, near the city of Grozny, and almost lost control. We also know that means of electronic warfare put our plane out of control. This was the first impact on the plane. At the same time, as a result of fire from the ground, the tail of the plane was also severely damaged…

The fact that the fuselage is riddled with holes indicates that the theory of the plane hitting a flock of birds, which was brought up by someone, is completely removed from the agenda. It is possible that when the plane was damaged, when it was hit, the pilot could have perceived it as a collision with birds. Because it would probably never have occurred to anyone that our plane might be fired at from the ground while flying over a country friendly to us. Unfortunately, however, some circles in Russia preferred to put forward this theory. Another regrettable and surprising moment for us was that official Russian agencies put forward theories about the explosion of a gas cylinder on board the plane. In other words, this clearly showed that the Russian side wanted to cover up the issue, which, of course, is unbecoming of anyone. Of course, our plane was hit by accident. Of course, there can be no talk of a deliberate act of terror here. Therefore, admitting guilt, apologizing in a timely manner to Azerbaijan, which is considered a friendly country, and informing the public about this – these were measures and steps that should have been taken. Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories…

Some believe that the plane was deliberately sent off course by ground handling services in Grozny because the plane was already out of control, and there was a high probability it would fall into the sea. If this had been the case, the cover-up attempts would have been successful, and the so-called bird theory would have been presented as the most likely version…we can clearly say today that the plane was shot down by Russia. This is a fact, and no-one can deny this fact. Again, we are not saying that this was done intentionally, but it was done.

Strong accusations. Notably Aliyev does not once mention Ukrainian drones, which were being launched against civilian infrastructure in the region at the time of the plane downing. That might help explain how Russia accidentally shot at the plane — if that’s indeed what happened. It’s unclear why Aliyev doesn’t mention the possibility that shrapnel from a Ukrainian drone could have caused the damage to the plane.

While Aliyev no doubt has public opinion to worry about after such an awful incident, is it not odd that even if his theory is 100 percent correct, he wouldn’t at least try to soften the blow against his ally Russia and present Ukraine as at least partially responsible? Instead Kiev is largely getting a free pass as public anger is directed at Moscow.

For what it’s worth, Aliyev’s theory of what happened is the same as US officials quoted in American media. Both could be right, although Western media no doubt have an interest in using the incident to drive a wedge between Baku and Moscow.

The question is whether Aliyev is on board with that potential outcome? Could he be looking to play an Erdogan role where he utilizes leverage over Moscow in a similar way that Ankara has?

Viewing Aliyev’s Comments Against Backdrop of Recent Events in South Caucasus 

Aliyev’s being so quick to forcefully blame Russia is a bit of a Sonny Corleone reaction, especially for someone who’s played his cards carefully in recent years. Could recent events in the Caucasus help explain his shift? Let’s examine the terrain:

Russian influence has come under increasing pressure there since the start of the Ukraine war.

Georgia looks to have fought off a color revolution attempt for now. Again it’s important to note the ruling party in Georgia is not anti-US or EU, it simply wants to maintain good ties with Russia and not be turned into another Ukraine.

In Armenia it’s another story. It continues to move out of Russian orbit politically if not economically. A US military officer is now the main adviser to Armenia’s defense ministry, the French are training Armenian units and signing weapons deals, and India has replaced Russia as Armenia’s top arms supplier. Yerevan is also seeking security guarantees from Brussels and Washington.

Moscow is observing the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process from the sidelines (it used to lead the talks), although it still seemingly exerts quite a bit of influence over Baku. The two sides are nearing the conclusion of bilateral negotiations on a peace agreement that could have major implications for connectivity at the Eurasian crossroads. Simultaneously, Türkiye and Armenia are working to normalize relations, a process that Ankara ties to Armenia’s talks with Baku.

The US has weaseled its way into these processes via Armenia and is looking to exploit the situation to weaken Iran and Russia.

There are hang ups to deals between Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Armenia, including Baku’s demand that Armenia remove an implicit claim on Nagorno-Karabakh in its constitution.

The most challenging issue in Armenian-Azerbaijani talks, however, is the establishment of transport links and specifically who will control them.

The Battle for Control Over Logistics Corridors in the South Caucasus

The so-called Zangezur Corridor – which would stretch parallel to Armenia’s border with Iran and link Azerbaijan to its Türkiye-bordered exclave of Nakhchivan — is the missing link in what would be the shortest land transport route between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. And key to many involved parties is not only the shorter distance but the fact that it’s one of the few routes that entirely bypasses Russia.

The corridor would also be a key intersection point of other burgeoning North–South and East–West routes.

The Middle Corridor, for example, which passes from China through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye extending to Europe could see major upgrades with the opening of Zangezur.

And so outside involvement and pressure steadily builds on Armenia and Azerbaijan .

The main issue holding up talks between the two is Point 9 of the trilateral statement signed between Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in 2020 following the Second Karabakh War, which reads:

All economic and transport links in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with a view to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. Control over transport communication shall be exercised by the Border Guard Service bodies of the FSS of Russia.

Azerbaijan continues to insist upon this point, while Armenia no longer wants Russian border guards present, and instead argues for solutions like Russia monitoring the corridor from afar. How exactly that would be done isn’t yet clear.

The Armenian prime minister is making statements about entrusting Zangezur’s security to foreign private forces. These ideas are coming as Armenia removes Russian border guards.

On Wednesday at Armenia’s request, the Russians withdrew from the only official Armenian-Iranian crossing, which followed  the departure of Russian border guards from Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport in July,. Since 1992 Armenia’s borders with Türkiye and Iran have been the responsibility of Russian troops.

Meanwhile, the number of EU guards on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border keeps expanding.

Both Azerbaijan and Russia are critical of the EU mission creep, and Baku continues to insist that Yerevan agree to the deployment of Russian border guards along the Zangezur Corridor.

Could that be changing?

Any agreement between Baku and Yerevan (and its Western backers) that excludes Russia would be a major power play from the Turkic axis and a perceived win for the US-Israel axis as it would sideline Russia and Iran.

How the latter two would respond remains to be seen, but what’s clear is how the Middle East conflicts and Ukraine war are bleeding into the Caucasus. It’s easy to see how it could become part of a deal that helps temporarily ease the tensions among the conquering parties of Syria by continuing to focus on areas on overlapping interests or get dragged in nonetheless.

Here’s a brief look at key players positions in this theater of The Great Game:

Iran

Pretty straightforward:

Regional peace, security and stability is not merely a preference, but a pillar of our national security.

Any threat from North, South, East, or West to territorial integrity of our neighbors or redrawing of boundaries is totally unacceptable and a red line for Iran.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) September 5, 2024

From Iran’s perspective the Zangezur Corridor is a nightmare. Neocon think tanks in Washington have long dreamed of using Azerbaijan to destabilize Iran — as they have for weakening Russian influence in the South Caucasus. Ethnic Azeri citizens who are estimated to make up 15 percent of the Iranian population.

Tehran’s concerns about Azerbaijan are further aggravated by Tel Aviv’s support to Azerbaijan (more on that below). Tehran also faces the following economic fallout from the Zangezur Corridor, according to Security & Defence Quarterly::

• Azerbaijan used to pay 15 percent of the 350 million cubic metres of gas sent to Nakhchivan through Iran as a transit fee. With the opening of the new corridor, Iran may lose this profit.

• An agreement on sale of gas was signed between Türkiye and Iran in 1996. Based on that agreement, Türkiye has been buying gas from Iran for years. While Türkiye pays Iran US$490 for a thousand cubic metres of gas, it can buy the same amount from Azerbaijan for US$335.

• If a gas pipeline is built from Azerbaijan to Türkiye through this corridor, Iran’s loss of gas revenue may be huge.

• The planned gas pipeline project from Turkmenistan through Iran to Türkiye then to Europe was frozen in 2017 because of financial disagreements. Turkmenistan can now deliver this gas to Europe via Azerbaijan.

• The importance of Iran’s pipeline to Armenia has also decreased.

The Strategic Council of Foreign Relations in Tehran, whose director is Iran’s former minister of foreign affairs Kamal Kharazi, condemned the construction of the Zangezur corridor, indicating that the corridor has been introduced as NATO’s “Turan corridor,” a project ostensibly supported by Israel and NATO, which aims to foment ethnic unrest in the areas of Iran inhabited by Turks. As per the aforementioned Council, NATO’s Turan corridor is supposed to directly bring NATO onto the northern border of Iran, the southern border of Russia, and western China and lay the groundwork for their disintegration.

Moscow and Tehran are reportedly set to sign their strategic partnership in the coming weeks, which will alter the calculus of all involved parties.

Türkiye

Türkiye has been the driving force behind many of the Caucasus cooperation projects in recent years, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic Pipelines connecting Azerbaijan to Europe via Türkiye.

Erdogan and friends view the Zangezur Corridor as bigger than all that and a key piece in the country’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power. Here’s what Ankara envisions:

• A gas pipeline from Baku to Türkiye through the corridor.

• Increased leverage in negotiating gas prices with Iran.

• Resurrecting the Trans-Caspian pipeline and transporting that gas through Türkiye to Europe (A pipeline through a Nakhchivan corridor could help boost supplies to Europe to upwards of 31 bcm, although that would be years away, and ironically, due to its heavy investments in the Azerbaijani oil and gas sector, one of the bigger beneficiaries of any Brussels-Baku deals could be Russia. Azerbaijan is even importing more Russian gas itself in order to meet its obligations to Europe.

• A logistics corridor stretching to China.

• A railroad line from Türkiye to Nakhchivan could make Türkiye a regional transit hub in addition to an energy one.

The US-Israel-EU

The US wants to sideline Russia and Iran. The EU does what the US wants.

Therefore, the West (including Türkiye) tries to ensure the flow of resources of the South Caucasus and Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia and Iran and reducing their influence, as well as that of Beijing. As always, the US permanent state is in lockstep with Israel, and it’s important to note that despite the surface friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv, in the South Caucasus their interests once again align.

Israel supports pan-Turkic ambitions through the Caucasus because Tel Aviv views Turkish influence as preferable to that of Iran — even if it potentially sets “Greater Türkiye” and “Greater Israel” up for a future clash.

Israel too continues to exert influence in Azerbaijan through its role as the country’s main weapon supplier, including air defense systems, all the latest in drones and surveillance tech, as well as cooperation in cybersecurity. Israel is also Azerbaijan’s leading oil importer, a trade which continues to be partially facilitated by Türkiye despite the country’s ban on trade with Israel — or what Erdogan calls a “Zionist terrorist organization.”

China

Beijing wants to expand its influence and open or expand more trade routes. China has signed strategic partnership agreements with Tbilisi and Baku and is pursuing major infrastructure projects, such as that port in Georgia, which causes so much heartburn in the US.

Russia

Russia wants to maintain a dominant role in the Caucasus, including in trade corridors, which become even more important due to Western isolation efforts. It was long in Moscow’s interests to have a simmering conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan as that allowed it to play peace broker and maintain a presence, but it is increasingly being pushed out of these processes.

It still has a military base in Armenia, as well as peacekeepers, and border control, although their numbers are declining at Armenia’s request, and the military base could be next.

Armenia

The corridor would be a boon for Armenia — as long as it doesn’t alienate Russia, which it largely depends on economically. From the Emirates Policy Center: 

Russia has also kept Armenia in its orbit through maintaining economic ties. The trade turnover between the two countries increased from $2.6 billion in 2021 to $7.3 billion in 2023. That has significantly ensured the growth of Armenia’s GDP by 12.6% in 2022 and by 8.3% in 2023. Armenia declares that it is not interested in breaking relations with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), affirming plans to actively participate in the organization despite the fact that  Armenia has frozen its membership in the CSTO and is reducing its activity in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Moreover, the EAEU-Iran free trade agreement boosts Armenia’s role as the only EAEU member bordering Iran. Close economic ties also give Russia leverage, as many Armenian producers depend on its market, allowing Moscow to impose restrictive measures if needed. Additionally, EAEU membership prevents Armenia from signing an Association Agreement with the EU, creating a long-term economic deterrent against turning to the West.

Despite the economic reliance on Russia, Armenia has largely been infiltrated by American interests and could likely be made to go along with a deal that fits with the US-Israel’s goals.

The key is Azerbaijan, which much like Türkiye effectively plays both sides. It enjoys ties with Russia primarily in energy and logistics while upping its natural gas deliveries to the EU. It has a strong weapons-for-energy relationship with Israel that it uses to help balance its relationship with Iran.

Aliyev’s reaction to the downing of flight J2-8243 could point to a willingness to take some more chances with Russia. Like Erdogan, Aliyev might reasonably believe that Russia needs it at this time and is not in position to take a strong stance or retaliate. Moscow must cooperate with Baku on trade connectivity due to the West’s attempts to isolate it, and that’s a reliance Azerbaijan might now be keen to exploit.

Washington has long tried to resurrect animosity between Baku and Moscow. The US ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mark Libby, who previously worked in Baghdad and as deputy chief of mission and chargé d’affaires at the US Mission to the EU among other posts, was hastily dispatched to the country in December of 2023. One of his first actions was to visit the Alley of Martyrs dedicated to those killed by the Soviet Army during Black January 1990 (these old USSR wounds are gifts that just keep giving for the US, e.g.,“The Holodomor Industry” in Ukraine).  Where that obvious ploy failed, the newer wound caused by Russia’s alleged downing of the flight could succeed.

In conclusion, it’s still too early to answer cui bono, but if actions accompany Aliyev’s accusations then we could be looking at another win for the US-Israel axis.

Seattle Public Schools is seeing an alarming rise in the number of its students experiencing homelessness. 

As of October, the district reported 2,235 students experiencing homelessness since the school year began, a nearly 20% increase from last year’s 30% rise, KUOW/NPR reported. 

Homelessness has reached record levels nationwide, according to a recent HUD report. In Washington state, over 41,000 students experienced homelessness during the 2023-24 school year, a nearly 15% increase.

Jenny Allen, a McKinney-Vento support worker in Seattle, said rising costs and limited affordable housing are straining families, while the district has seen a rise in immigrants and refugees, particularly from South America.

The KUOW/NPR report said that at Dunlap Elementary, Rogers Greene, an eight-year veteran supporting unhoused students, now assists a growing number of families fleeing conflicts in countries like Ukraine and Afghanistan.

“I can’t imagine. You’re just dropped somewhere and then figure it out — figure out the language, figure out how you’re going to live, where you’re going to live, how you’re going to eat. It’s survival. So it’s important for us to have those connections, relationships, and work through the language barrier,” he said. 

He continued: “They may not know of those services, those resources that they can access, so part of my job is to educate. But what I want to get to with families is a point of empowerment — like they’ve accessed a resource, they’ve used it successfully, they know of some organization where they’ve been helped, and they can share that with someone else or another family.”

Greene supports immigrant and refugee families facing language barriers and fear of seeking help, the report said. 

At Dunlap Elementary, he provides essentials like coats and backpacks, supervises lunches, and creates a safe space for students. Unhoused students face significant academic challenges, but Greene highlights their resilience, noting how many quickly adapt and thrive.

Authored by Michael Wing via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Joe Buffalo Child’s earliest boyhood memories are of cold, barren landscapes, wolves howling outside a warm tent, and emerald green northern lights—miraculous coloured curtains dancing between Earth and the stars. For Buffalo Child, raised in the traditional Dene lifestyle by his grandparents in the Northwest Territories, it was like a dream.

Lately, posts about those dancing aurora borealis are all over social media; prominent geomagnetic storms last fall—and now again this new year—caused the whole online buzz. But for Buffalo Child, who founded Yellowknife-based aurora-chasing tour company North Star Adventures, the hype doesn’t mean much.

In N.W.T., where he once snapped a shot of a “dragon aurora,” the spectral lights are omnipresent, he tells The Epoch Times.

When clients ask what it’s like living with the lights always on, he answers: “It is as common as you breathing air. What’s it like for you to breathe air?”

“As a young boy, it was always with us,” he said. “The aurora was always here with our people since time immemorial. So it’s nothing really new for us.”

Speaking of his Dene heritage, Buffalo Child’s voice has an element of awe. He’s all too eager to share his cherished culture with the visitors who arrive at his tour office seven days a week.

He tells them the Dene are indigenous Native Americans who share the same ancestry as the Navaho in the southern United States and speak the same language. The Navaho migrated south after crossing the land bridge some 30,000 years ago. The Dene stayed up north.

Dene spirituality is tightly wed to auroras; they believe their ancestors reside there.

As CEO of North Star Adventures, Buffalo Child, 60, hosts global travellers from as far away as South Korea and Taiwan (he hires Korean and Chinese interpreters to assist). Guests arrive like pilgrims eager to check off lifelong bucket lists.

The business is booming, but has seen better days. Rising from the ashes of near-ruin after the COVID lockdowns, they’re rebuilding. Now, Buffalo Child is always checking the weather and greeting new groups to take along on Arctic adventures. Drives through winter wonderlands are topped off climactically with northern lights that rarely disappoint.

Buffalo Child says he always wants to make his guests’ sojourn soulful and build a real connection.

He tells stories of the grandparents who raised him who’ve now passed on and whom he sees in the afterlife dancing in the auroras. They say they are happy and will meet again, he tells his guests.

“You can hear [our guests] weeping,” he said, adding that their trip is often “a lifelong dream.” “Our tour’s not just something like an attraction—it’s something more profound and more special.”

Auroras come from the east—or rather, seem to. Actually, the Earth’s rotation carries us through them as they stand impervious to geographic location, dancing hundreds of kilometres over the Earth’s magnetic polar regions.

Buffalo Child’s team, nevertheless, heads east to intercept them.

A former civil engineering student, Buffalo Child knows every last dirt road and turnoff in the area like the back of his hand. His savvy for scouting the most sublime spots is his edge over the competition.

The drive eastward often leads to Pontoon Lake where dark skies free of light pollution and shorelines clear of obstructions are ideal for viewing. It was here several months ago that Buffalo Child captured one of his most impressive shots as tour participants gazed skyward in perfect stillness, entranced by a ribbon of red and yellow lights across the shore.

“Watching the aurora and the stars—and the Aurora reflect off the water—it was an incredible experience,” he said.

Since Buffalo Child started North Star Adventures in 2007, the territory’s auroras have attracted stars like Carrie Fisher and placed Yellowknife under the spotlight. “Good Morning America” featured him last January and marvelled at the uncanny ability of digital censors in smartphones that can drink in and display colours the human eye is incapable of seeing.

Even in the pitch of night, Buffalo Child, together with host Ginger Zee, captured a silhouette all ablaze in gorgeous greens.

The auroras being lifelong fellow travellers, Buffalo Child says it’s impossible for him to choose a “favourite” sighting. But of the tens of thousands he’s captured on camera, he says the “dragon aurora” that appeared over a spiny ridge in 2019 was unforgettable.

“I was able to capture the body and the head, and you can see the eyes and the teeth of the dragon’s head. It’s incredible,” he said. “It’s kind of the whole body of the dragon coming down to Earth.”

Buffalo Child’s close proximity to auroras naturally led him to grasp the science behind the lights: Charged particles ejected from the sun are captured by the Earth’s magnetosphere, and those particles then gather to form “aurora ovals” over both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. These particles display various colours, their specific hue depending on their altitude.

When Buffalo Child hears people say auroras are best viewed when it’s cold outside, he disagrees.

“Our weather systems on Earth are zero to five kilometres above the surface of the earth,” he says. “[With auroras], you’re talking about 600 to 1,000 [kilometres], it’s got nothing to do with the weather.”

But scientific theories take a backseat to belief when he’s sharing memories with his clients en route to witness auroras. He returns to his childhood: “Life was beautiful with my grandparents,” he says. “Our world was the land and the Great Slave Lake.”

Looking up, he sees the grace of the lights that connect him with his grandparents and ancestors. “That’s what I look at when I see the aurora.”