Authored by Julie Kelly via Declassified with Julie Kelly (subscribe here),

Few people worked harder over the past few years to put Donald Trump behind bars than Liz Cheney, the former (alleged) Republican congresswoman from Wyoming.

Seeking revenge for Trump’s longtime criticism of her father’s “weapons of mass destruction” lie, Cheney sought to settle a family score by imprisoning Trump over the events of January 6. “No one is above the law!,” Cheney, in her grating sanctimonious style, frequently insists.

Well, except for her.

It now appears Cheney is preparing to fight any federal and/or congressional probe into her demonstrably corrupt role as vice chairman of the January 6 Select Committee. Text messages obtained by Representative Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga), chair of a House subcommittee looking into the J6 committee, prove that Cheney colluded behind the scenes with star witness Cassidy Hutchinson, who dramatically changed her testimony after connecting with Cheney. The communications could represent witness tampering, subornation of perjury—every former White House official including the driver of the presidential vehicle on January 6 has refuted Hutchinson’s account of Trump’s behavior that day—and obstruction.

Based on the results of his ongoing inquiry, Loudermilk determined that “numerous federal laws were likely broken by Liz Cheney” and called for the FBI to investigate her.

Cheney immediately responded by playing the victim and, of course, by blaming Donald Trump. But the American people appear uninterested in Cheney’s excuses; a new Rasmussen poll shows strong public support, including three-quarters of Republicans, for an FBI investigation into the bitter and defeated nepobaby.

If Trump’s Department of Justice decides to proceed, Cheney undoubtedly will seek immunity protections in an attempt to keep records away from federal investigators; members of Congress are entitled to immunity under the Speech or Debate Clause of the Constitution, which shields lawmakers from criminal liability related to their legislative duties.

Immunity for Me But Not For Thee or Thee or Thee

Cheney’s sycophants are already signaling that is the route she will take. During recent interviews, Rep. Jamie Raskin, a close pal of Cheney’s and fellow “NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW” squawker, warned the clause can prevent the FBI from accessing her communications.

Pressed by reporter Hugo Lowell during a recent podcast, Raskin pooh-poohed accusations that Cheney potentially broke the law. “That hardly is a crime in the United States,” Raskin said about Cheney’s secret collaboration with Hutchinson. “In any event, she’s completely protected by the Speech and (sic) Debate Clause, which protects all of us in our legislative capacities both in terms of our direct legislative action and in doing the investigative research that needs to be done in order to legislate and to act as legislators in a comprehensive way.”

Raskin said the same during a separate interview with CBS News. “They’ve been talking about going after Liz Cheney simply for doing her legislative work in a way that is completely covered by the Speech and (sic) Debate Clause. It is not a crime for someone to go out and find witnesses to a violent insurrection.”

Now, that is really rich coming from Raskin and potentially from Cheney. As members of the J6 committee, both were instrumental in stripping privilege sought by Trump and his inner circle including his attorneys, which resulted in the production of presidential records to the Trump-hating partisans on the committee and testimony by White House officials who are usually protected by executive privilege.

But Cheney also urged the Supreme Court to act quickly in denying Donald Trump’s claims of presidential immunity from prosecution after Special Counsel Jack Smith indicted Trump in August 2023 on four counts for his alleged role in “conspiring” to overturn the results of the 2020 election, representing the first time in history a former president faced a criminal federal indictment.

Despite the unprecedented nature of the question and troubling long term consequences for the country, Cheney acted as if the matter was a no brainer and accused anyone opposed as being, of course, a Kremlin stooge.

A few days before the court held oral arguments in Trump v US, the landmark immunity case, Cheney published an op-ed in the New York Times urging justices to move with haste. “If delay prevents this Trump case from being tried this year, the public may never hear critical and historic (sic) evidence developed before the grand jury, and our system may never hold the man most responsible for Jan. 6 to account,” Cheney wrote on April 22, 2024.

She further lamented how Trump tried to “delay” proceedings before her House committee by seeking privilege protections in court. “I know how Mr. Trump’s delay tactics work. Our committee had to spend months litigating his privilege claims…before we could gain access to White House records.” (This is untrue since Joe Biden repeatedly and quickly denied Trump’s privilege requests and Judge Tanya Chutkan, who later presided over Smith’s J6 indictment, also expedited the matter ultimately forcing the national archives to turn over presidential material that usually takes years to litigate.)

So, according to Cheney’s logic, any assertion of executive privilege—a legitimate legal argument with decades of recent case law behind it—represents a “delay tactic.” Should be fun to watch Cheney explain her hypocrisy once the privilege tables are turned.

Lawfare’s Karma Could Catch Up With Cheney

Further, the lawfare Cheney supported against Trump and his congressional allies could very well come back to bite her. A pair of recent court decisions have narrowed Speech or Debate Clause protections including those that appear tied to legislative functions.

The day after the Mar-a-Lago raid in August 2022, FBI agents seized the cell phone of Rep. Scott Perry, who was traveling with his family at the time. The FBI then sought court-approved access to thousands of records contained on his device as part of the DOJ’s investigation into Trump for Jan 6.

Perry invoked the Speech or Debate Clause in asking a D.C. judge to prevent the DOJ from obtaining roughly 2,000 messages and emails the Pennsylvania congressman said were related to official legislative business, namely, the certification of the 2020 election. But Beryl Howell, the former chief judge of the D.C. district court and unabashed Trump-hating partisan, denied almost all of Perry’s claims.

Judge Howell in January 2023:

Rep. Perry contends that he is entitled to withhold as privileged under the Clause 2,219 responsive records spanning his communications not only with fellow congressional Members and staff, but also with private individuals and officials with no formal role or function in the United States Congress, including officials with the Trump campaign, the White House, Office of the President, and the Pennsylvania State Legislature. He articulates a broad reach of the non-disclosure aspect of the Speech or Debate Clause privilege to block access in a criminal investigation to any communications he had with any person in any capacity when “he was engaged in information gathering that is ‘part of, in connection with, or in aide of a legitimate legislative act’ . . . even where it is an informal effort undertaken by an individual Member of Congress or their staff. This astonishing view of the scope of the legislative privilege would truly cloak Members of Congress with a powerful dual non-disclosure and immunity shield for virtually any of their activities that could be deemed information gathering about any matter which might engage legislative attention (emphasis added).

The D.C. appellate court in September 2023 largely upheld Howell’s order only making an exception to a handful of records pertaining to the votes planned for January 6, 2021. “Informal factfinding,” the three-judge panel including two Trump appointees concluded, “does not necessarily mean that such acts are privileged.” (Perry, by the way, was never charged.)

So, what “legislative” function did Cheney conduct when she used an encrypted app to talk to Hutchinson, who already had testified twice to the J6 committee before connecting with Cheney? Further, Hutchinson’s now provably false account of Trump’s behavior on January 6 had no role in developing legislation; in fact, the J6 committee’s final report contained only vague legislative recommendations that were never enacted by Congress. (Republicans took control of the House a few weeks after the committee issued its report.)

Cheney’s conduct also appears to fail the “investigative” test established in other court decisions. Hutchinson’s fictional tales about Trump physically confronting his security detail or throwing dishes at the wall or watching cable news as the chaos unfolded at the Capitol did not represent the fruits of an “investigation” or serve any investigative purpose.

Cheney may succeed where others failed since her immunity litigation will be handled by likeminded D.C. judges who won’t care about the appearance of hypocrisy. But watching Cheney—one of the most insufferable, self-aggrandizing, and thin-skinned politicians around—eat her own words will be a satisfying spectacle on its own.

US natural gas futures surged Monday morning as weather models continued to show a significant cold blast set to sweep across the Lower 48 in the coming days. The arctic air mass is expected to linger for weeks in the eastern half of the US, with increasing chances of wintery precipitation in some parts of the US. Traders appear to be responding to updated heating degree day forecasts, signaling a massive spike in heating demand over the next few weeks.

In early Monday trading, NatGas futures for February delivery surged as much as 12.3% to $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Technicians note that prices have broken through the critical $3 resistance level this heating season after a multi-year bottom following the spike to nearly $10 in mid-2022. 

On Friday, private weather forecaster BAMWX told clients “all systems go” for an Arctic blast, or “polar vortex,” to pour into the eastern half of the US during the second week of January or by mid-month. 

By Sunday, BAMWX meteorologists noted, “Now we’re starting to think about historic cold.” 

90% of you are reading this map incorrectly so let me help you out.

This is the forecast temp departure from normal not the actual air temp forecast.

So -30 is 30 degrees colder than your normal temp.

Here are the feels like temp forecast right now Jan 8-10th. pic.twitter.com/sMHyvEw6RT

— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 29, 2024

“It’s an intense level of cold in the heart of Winter,” BAMX said. 

Morning GEFS ensemble mean.

Map on the left is the colder change from 12hrs ago.

Map on the right is the week 2 actual ensemble mean forecast temps from normal.

It’s an intense level of cold in the heart of Winter. pic.twitter.com/p7BkWZq2O4

— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 29, 2024

BAMWX meteorologist outlines what’s ahead:

• Cold arrives Jan 1
• Extreme cold comes w/storm ~7th
• Dangerous cold 8-12th
• Bigger storm mid month
• Pattern changes late Jan

12-29-24 An Extreme Winter Pattern Incoming!

-Cold arrives Jan 1
-Extreme cold comes w/storm ~7th
-Dangerous cold 8-12th
-Bigger storm mid month
-Pattern changes late Jan

Details in my latest video! Share with a friend! pic.twitter.com/XLH0ETDIAD

— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 29, 2024

Old Man Winter is inbound. 

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

For four years, President Joe Biden has described climate change as an existential threat requiring a whole lot of government response and trillions of dollars in new spending to force America off fossil fuels.

President-elect Donald Trump, on the other hand, opts for a three-word approach: “Drill, baby, drill.”

Energy is just one of the areas – from foreign policy and law enforcement to taxes, immigration, regulation, and almost every other issue – where the two leaders have sharply divergent views. But even as Trump works to reverse many of Biden’s policies and the current administration seeks to entrench its priorities in its final days, energy debates show no president has a magic wand that can undo every policy enacted by his predecessor. 

Trump has made it clear he wants to realign U.S. energy policy toward cheap, abundant energy and away from expensive, emerging renewable sources, many of which rely on government subsidies. But experts say his options may be limited in cases where Congress approved spending bills, contracts were signed, or even where he encounters pushback from reluctant “green” enterprises that have relied on government largesse in the push for a “NetZero” future.

“Congress would have to repeal some of that,” said Travis Fisher, the director of energy and environmental policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, referring to hundreds of billions in climate-relate funding, including in the Inflation Reduction Act and other legislation passed during the last four years. “The question in some cases will be, ‘Do you try to improve what’s been done or repeal it?’ And then, if there are grants that have already gone out the door, those would be hard to claw back. But there are still a lot of targets for quick changes on day one.”

Some Trump supporters think the avenues that are open to a new administration, as well as Trump’s track record, give cause for optimism for those who want to reduce government spending or let the markets determine energy prices and accessibility. 

“When Trump promises something he usually delivers, and I would expect to see significant changes in energy policy with him,” said Geoffrey Pohanka, the 2023 chairman of the National Automobile Dealers Association.

One of Trump’s clearest paths to reform would be reversing the Biden administration’s moves to restrict drilling leases on federal lands. While Biden did not achieve his stated aim of halting all offshore drilling, he did try repeatedly to keep new exploration to a minimum while delaying existing permits. Alaska offered clear bookends of Biden’s anti-fossil fuel position. Upon taking office, he immediately suspended all nine Alaskan leases permitted during Trump’s first term, and in December, Biden’s Interior Department announced an auction of 400,000 acres for exploration in Alaska – the absolute minimum required by law. 

Possible Target: Electric Vehicles

Trump can also counter Biden’s commitment to electric vehicles, which increasingly looks like a plan to force manufacturers to build cars that the public does not want to buy. Government planners envision 33 million EVs on the road by 2030, up from the current 3.5 million light-duty EVs registered in the U.S. While Detroit executives have publicly backed EVs and are eager for government subsidies in that market, consumers have proved less enthusiastic. Ford, which lost more than $1.2 billion in the third quarter alone on its EVs, announced it would suspend building electric versions of its F-150 pickup, which has long been one of America’s best-selling vehicles. GM leadership continues to sound bullish on EVs, but the company is also losing money on them and has cut another 1,000 jobs. 

A Trump pushback could begin with scrapping one Biden goal linked to its effort to force EV manufacturing: the administration’s mandate that new vehicles must average 46 miles per gallon by 2026. 

Trump could also apply pressure by kicking out some of the government props to the green energy market. He could end Biden’s generous tax credits for EV leasing, which account for 85% of EVs on U.S. roads. Trump could also abolish federal tax incentives that encourage EV buying, and stop loans to struggling manufacturers of other renewable energy equipment, such as off-shore wind.

“The elimination of the tax credit for leases would essentially do away with the majority of Federal Government EV subsidies,” Pohanka said. “As for California’s emission exemption, the President’s directive to the EPA would eliminate it.”

But such a move ironically would likely face strong pushback from automakers. Despite their heavy losses on EVs, Detroit executives want to protect their huge investments in EVs that have been made, in part, via congressional action, and smaller outfits in myriad districts enjoy Washington’s largesse and will likely lobby for their continuance.

“The (Inflation Reduction Act) subsidies help to create constituencies that are going to fight hard to keep these handouts,” said Daren Bakst, an energy expert at the conservative Competitive Enterprise Institute. “While it will be difficult to get rid of some of these green subsidies, it is imperative that legislators put the interests of the American people over the interests of special interests.”

Possible Target: Green Infrastructure

Trump can counter efforts to make Americans buy EVs by stopping funds for Biden’s “National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure” plan. This ambitious proposal – which was developed by several executive branch agencies – includes $7.5 billion to build 500,000 EV charging stations around the country and was widely criticized earlier this year as only a handful of stations have been built since Biden unveiled the proposal in December 2021. As a result, much of the money has not been spent. That might allow Congress or perhaps the administration to freeze spending on the plan. This could provide huge savings in the future, too, as government planners acknowledge a full-blown national network of charging stations would cost between $53 billion and $127 billion and would rely on the private sector to do much of the heavy lifting, according to the plan’s annual report.

While Biden and global warming alarmists say the plan builds necessary infrastructure, critics say it should be scrapped because it rests on fanciful assumptions and timetables.

“This whole thing is really more of a pipe dream,” said Mark Mills, the Executive Director of the National Center on Energy Analytics (NCEA). “To pull this off, you would need something like $4 trillion worth of hardware, and that’s not counting additional power plants you’d need and the national grid to handle the expected growth in power demand. You’ve also got land issues – where are you going to put all this?”

In other words, the national infrastructure plan rests on an “if we build it, they will come” dream, according to auto market experts and economists. Even the people at Climate Crisis acknowledged in November that “the dream of the $25,000 EV is dead.”

“This plan is another example of the Sovietization of the economy,” said Walter Block, an economics professor at Loyola University in New Orleans. “This is essentially a ‘Five Year Plan.’”

A Trump administration looking to trim will find other federal departments and agencies that have swollen remarkably during Biden’s four years.

Possible Target: The EPA

Experts say a far more ambitious effort would be reforming the large and extensive government bodies that carry out Washington’s energy policy. These would include the Department of Energy, of course, but also the Departments of Transportation and Interior, the Federal Highway Administration, and, perhaps most especially, the Environmental Protection Agency, a regulatory body the Biden administration has transformed into a cash cow for green energy.

In the last four years, the EPA’s “budgetary resources” increased by more than 400%, rising from $17.2 to $84.4 billion, according to the Treasury Department’s tracker. At the same time, according to the agency’s inspector general, the Biden administrator has created an “incredibly complex” investment bank within the EPA to award much of that money to green groups.

Biden officials have insisted there is “no turning back” on EPA-funded programs such as the $27 billion it dished out to nonprofits via the new Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund. RealClearInvestigations has reported that much of this money has been awarded to outfits with strong ties to the Democratic party.

“The situation at the EPA is troubling – it’s not an agency that is supposed to be in the spending, or giving out money business at all,” Bakst said. “It’s not like this is a small amount of money that the EPA is doling out, and much of the money is going to the creation of what amount to slush funds for nonprofits.”

Mandy Gunasekara, who led the EPA at the end of Trump’s first term, said the new administration should try to claw back billions earmarked for global warming measures, though she acknowledged “it would be cleaner with Congressional action.”

In addition, she said unobligated “funds can be redirected,” a tactic that has been used by many administrations. Those efforts, like the expected new leases and permits federal agencies will green light under Trump, could face court challenges that would, at the very least, slow Trump’s actions.

Gunasekara has fleshed out a reform agenda in the EPA chapter she contributed to “Project 2025,” a blueprint for conservative governance prepared by the Heritage Foundation that Democrats falsely labeled a Trump manifesto. 

The EPA, she wrote, “has been a breeding ground for expansion of the federal government’s influence and control across the economy. Embedded activists have sought to evade legal restraints in pursuit of a global, climate-themed agenda, aiming to achieve that agenda by implementing costly policies that otherwise have failed to gain the requisite political traction in Congress.”

With a few steps, the Trump administration could profoundly shift the EPA narrative and return it to its familiar duties, according to Gunasekara. In some cases, this would involve action by the Trump administration, and in others, it could be achieved simply by ignoring or stalling a raft of regulations put in under Biden. These steps would include:

• Eliminating the Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights, which has become a stand-alone office.
• Reviewing the EPA’s grants to ensure taxpayer money goes to groups “focused on tangible environmental improvements free from political affiliations.” This would be accompanied by a stop on “all grants to advocacy groups.”
• Making “new petitions for rule reconsiderations and stays of rules.”
• Reassessing any “sue and settle” cases and increasing “public notification and participation” in legal matters.
• Removing the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program “for any source category that is not currently being regulated.”

Although some of Biden’s initiatives have been approved by Congress, Gunasekara told RCI that “many EPA actions in liberal administrations have simply ignored the will of Congress, aligning instead with the goals and wants of politically connected activists.” 

Possible Target: The Bureaucracy

A Trump administration looking to trim will also encounter other federal departments and agencies that have swollen remarkably during Biden’s four years. While not seeing the spectacular growth of the EPA, the Energy Department saw its “budgetary resources” more than double from $61.1 billion in FY2021 to $129.9 billion in FY2022. In the most recent fiscal year, Energy had $153.4 billion. The Department of Interior, meanwhile, saw its money balloon from FY2021’s $48.8 billion to FY2022’s $84.1 billion, and it now has $92.1 billion, according to the Treasury Department’s figures.

“Closing vast, unnecessary and unconstitutionally justified departments would also save money,” said H. Sterling Burnett, director of climate and environmental policy at the Heartland Institute, a longtime critic of apocalyptic global warming predictions. “The latter won’t just save money now, but will reduce deficit spending going forward, leaving it in the hands of the states or the people.”

Such moves may also be proposed by the incoming Department of Government Efficiency, a new arm led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy that is expected to suggest widespread reductions or eliminations of federal programs in an effort to trim the national debt that currently stands at more than $36 trillion.

Trump’s nominee for energy secretary, Chris Wright, an energy executive and unapologetic booster of fossil fuels and natural gas, is expected to cast a gimlet eye on much of the DoE’s actions in the past four years. But just what might happen remains unclear; a Trump spokesperson did not respond to RCI’s requests for comment.

Much of this money can be saved simply by not being spent, Fisher said.

“The Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office is sitting on big piles of money,” he said. “The idea would be to hit pause on new loan guarantees. It’s a strategy where you either sit on appropriated funds and do nothing, or you redirect and move forward with new priorities.”

Whatever measures the new administration takes will be welcome, said Michael Chamberlain, director of the conservative Protect the Public’s Trust.

“The government is throwing massive sums around, but the devil is in the details,” he said. “The American public would be forgiven if they believed the purpose of these programs was more about rewarding friends than solar panels or high-speed internet or EV charging.”

US equity futures dropped sharply on the second to last day of 2024, crushing a deathly blow to any hopes of a belated Santa rally, as the powerful meltup in technology shares and among momentum chasers crumbled in the final trading sessions of 2024. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures slumped 1%, dropping for a 3rd straight session and signaling extended weakness on Wall Street after Friday’s retreat led by tech megacaps weakness; Nasdaq futures also slid 1%. Monday’s weakness was broad based: Europe’s Stoxx 600 index retreated, while Asian stocks snapped five days of gains. Treasuries reversed an earlier slide, and the 10-year yield dropped from near the highest levels since May. The dollar also reversed earlier gains while gold and bitcoin were relatively flat. The US economic data calendar includes December MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and November pending homes sales and December Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10am)

Mag 7 stocks were set to end the year on a damp note, with all in the red in pre market trading: Apple -0.6%, Nvidia -0.8%, Microsoft -0.4%, Alphabet -0.4%, Amazon -0.7% Meta Platforms -0.6%, Tesla -1.7% in premarket trading. Boeing shares slid 4.8% in premarket trading on Monday after a 737-800 aircraft operated by Jeju Air crashed at Muan International Airport. Investigators are focusing on a possible bird strike or landing-gear failure, and an analyst said it’s unlikely the events were related to Boeing’s production. Axsome Therapeutics shares fall 13% in premarket trading on Monday after the company announced its Phase 3 trial for AXS-05 in Alzheimer’s disease agitation.

The Mag 7 tech supergiants have been behind the 25% gain in the S&P 500 this year, which has prompted some to worry that the gains are too concentrated in a small group of names (see “Supercharged AI Bubble Or Epic Market Bust: BofA Derivative Desk’s Dire 2025 Outlook“). Still, few are calling for the rally to end and none of the 19 strategists tracked by Bloomberg – all of whom were wrong in their 2024 year-end price forecasts – expects the S&P 500 to decline next year.

“There’s a little bit of trepidation heading into year-end, owing in part to uncertainty over how the international trade picture may take shape in 2025,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at Kohle Capital Markets Pty. “Some traders are taking risk off the table heading into year-end.”

European stocks also fell in the penultimate trading session of 2024, tracking declines in their Asian counterparts amid thin trading volumes. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.2%, led lower by declines in media and health care shares. Trading in Europe’s equity benchmark was about 60% below the 20-day average. It’s the final session of 2024 for some markets including Germany, where the DAX benchmark is on course for a 19% annual advance, beating peers in the UK and France.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities snapped a five-day advance, with Japanese benchmark indexes leading losses. The MSCI Asia Pacific index declined as much as 0.6%, its biggest drop in a week, with Toyota, Sony and Hitachi dragging down the benchmark. Japan’s Topix Index fell from a five-month high on the last trading day of the year for the nation. Stocks also declined in Australia and India. Shares were mixed in China. The onshore CSI 300 gauge closed with small gains, while the Hong Kong measure fell, weighed down by technology names.

“Overnight weak markets in the US have weighed on sentiment, notably in Japan & Hong Kong,” said Kok Hoong Wong, head of institutional equities sales trading at Maybank Securities. “We would expect volumes to continue to be low for rest of the week, and sentiment to be cautious,” he said.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.1% after rising more than 7% in 2024, driven by the anticipation of “America First” policies from President-elect Donald Trump. The kiwi tops the G-10 FX leader board, rising 0.4% against the greenback; NZDUSD and AUDUSD lead G-10 gains versus the dollar climbing as much as 0.5% respectively. The euro strengthened after Spanish consumer prices rose to 2.8% in December, exceeding expectations and staying above 2% for the second month; EURUSD rose as much as 0.2% to 1.0444.

Treasuries rose, with 10-year yields dropping from near the highest levels since May as the treasury market was close to erasing the small gains it has made so far in 2024. 10-year yields fell 5 bps to 4.57%, while German 10-year yields fall 1 bp to 2.39% having briefly risen after Spanish inflation data surprised to the upside.

In commodities, oil prices declined again, with WTI falling 0.3% to $70.40 a barrel. Crude is heading for a loss this year, with trading confined to a narrow range since mid-October. Gold fell $9 but was set for one of its biggest annual gains this century.  Bitcoin rose toward $94,000 before reversing.

The US economic data calendar includes December MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and November pending homes sales and December Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 6,012.75
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 506.16
• MXAP down 0.5% to 181.98
• MXAPJ down 0.3% to 572.30
• Nikkei down 1.0% to 39,894.54
• Topix down 0.6% to 2,784.92
• Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,041.42
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,407.33
• Sensex down 0.6% to 78,199.73
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 8,235.01
• Kospi down 0.2% to 2,399.49
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.39%
• Euro little changed at $1.0419
• Brent Futures little changed at $74.24/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,617.23
• US Dollar Index little changed at 108.05

Top Overnight News

• Tributes poured in for Jimmy Carter, who died at age 100. Joe Biden eulogized him as “an extraordinary leader, statesman and humanitarian,” while Donald Trump said all Americans “owe him a debt of gratitude.” The 39th US president helped broker peace between Israel and Egypt during a single term marred by high inflation, an oil shortage and Iran’s holding of American hostages. Biden declared Jan. 9 a National Day of Mourning. It’s unclear whether markets will be closed.
• Elon Musk’s growing political influence is eroding global resistance to his Starlink satellite network. Consumers are willing to overlook concerns about data security and privacy for access to reliable and fast internet. BBG
• Treasury Sec Yellen warned Fri night that extraordinary measures to avoid breaching the debt ceiling will need to be taken between Jan 14 and Jan 23 (those measures should push the ceiling deadline to the spring). WaPo
• Syria’s new de facto leader said it may take as long as four years to hold an election due to the difficulties involved in taking a census and drafting a constitution. FT
•  
• Nvidia is looking to robotics to drive its next leg of growth as competition rises in the core AI chip market (Nvidia believes the “ChatGPT moment for physical AI and robotics is around the corner”. FT
• China’s central government is trying to curb a spate of detentions by local authorities of business executives that is fuelling anxiety among entrepreneurs and risks undercutting efforts to boost economic growth. FT
• Spain’s CPI runs ahead of expectations for Dec, climbing 2.8% on an EU harmonized basis (up 40bp from +2.4% in Nov and 20bp above the consensus forecast of 2.6%). WSJ
• South Korean investigators are focusing on a bird strike and unusual landing-gear failure in the crash of a Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 that killed 179 people. Another Jeju aircraft suffered a landing-gear malfunction today but returned safely. Boeing shares fell premarket. BBG
• US energy production won’t rise rapidly in the coming years despite what Trump desires, for 2 main reasons: shale fields are aging (and thus a lot less productive than before) and they’re now mostly controlled by large oil companies (which are extremely disciplined on spending and output). WSJ

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu, reveals the most optimistic countries based on how their populations are feeling about 2025, relative to 2024.

Results are based on the Ipsos Predictions Survey 2025, a 33-country study which looks at people’s expectations and predictions for the year ahead.

Overall, a majority of people (71%) believe that 2025 will be a better year than 2024. According to Ipsos, optimism levels have fluctuated between 75% to 80% over the past decade.

Data and Methodology

To gather these results, Ipsos interviewed 23,721 adults from 33 countries. Respondents were asked to agree or disagree with the following statement: I am optimistic that 2025 will be a better year for me than it was in 2024.

The data we used to create this graphic is also listed below:

Most Optimistic Countries

Based on Ipsos’ survey, the most optimistic country is Indonesia (90% agree). We can look at other parts of the Ipsos Predictions Survey to gain some insight into why this is.

For example, an overwhelming majority of Indonesians believe that their physical and mental health will improve in 2025 (90% and 92% respectively).

Indonesians are also feeling good about technology and the economy. When asked whether artificial intelligence will create new jobs in their country, 74% of Indonesians agreed (second only to China, where 77% of people agreed).

Least Optimistic Countries

At the other end of the scale, Japan firmly stands out as the least optimistic country among the group. 63% of Japanese respondents disagreed that 2025 would be better than 2024.

Again, other parts of the survey may shed light on this result. For starters, just 38% of respondents believe their mental health will improve in 2025 (compare that to Indonesia’s 92%).

Furthermore, just 28% of Japanese believe that the global economy will be stronger in 2025—significantly lower than the global average of 51%.

If you enjoyed this post, check out this map graphic showing global happiness levels in 2024.

Authored by Bill Hansmann via AmericanThinker.com,

Margaret Hartmann, writing for the Intelligencer, published under the banner of the New York Magazine, writes that she finds it unpleasant that Donald Trump’s second inauguration will fall on the annual Martin Luther King holiday.  MLK Day is celebrated on the third Monday of each January; thus, it is not always on January 20.  However, by amended constitutional edict, January 20 is Inauguration Day every four years.

Hartmann laments that those dates coincide, and she quotes MLK’s youngest child, Dr. Bernice King, who finds it unfortunate that Donald Trump, rather than Kamala Harris, will be sworn in on her father’s holiday.  She’d hoped Harris would win instead of  “someone who’s spewing hateful rhetoric, who’s not been very kind-hearted, and whose policies are not humane in their approach.” 

Well, forgive me for quoting not Bernice King, but her father, whose most famous quote evokes a time “when my four little children will one day live in a nation where the color of their skin will not judge them, but rather the content of their character.”

Ms. Hartmann feels it would have been wonderful to be celebrating the swearing-in of the nation’s first black female president.  

Perhaps I am misinterpreting the writer, but I believe that in Kamala Harris, we would have been inaugurating an individual trumpeting the color of her skin rather than the content of her character.  

That is no real surprise, since the content of Harris’s character is below the empty mark.

It is no surprise to this writer that Donald Trump has increased the percentage of black voters supporting him along with the support of other minorities.  The Democrat party is intent on race-baiting, depicting non-whites as victimized by “the man.”  Describe them as victims, pass legislation addressing that victimhood, and throw “booty” at them as compensation for their victim-suffering, and you will have their votes forever.

Well, a sizable number of those “victims” are waking up to the fact that their victimhood is a construct of the Democrat party, designed to keep them in their place.  That place is a large underclass kept happy by the largesse of their Democrat “masters.”  Keeping the educational opportunities of blacks as limited as possible ensures their continued subscription to the drivel of Democrat leaders.  Can you tell me any other legitimate reason why Democrats are so against school choice?  And don’t try to tell me about teachers’ unions.  I said legitimate reasons.

Fortunately, an increasing number of blacks are awakening to the reality that these new “masters” are just as destructive to their societal advancement as were the old masters of the plantation.  

They are beginning to realize that Republicans such as Donald Trump are interested in the advancement of every citizen regardless of race.

The demagoguery directed at Donald Trump, claiming he is a racist and wants to make only white America great, is being seen by more and more people of color as the real racism in the conversation.  They are seeing the dreams of MLK coming to life at the behest of Donald Trump.  I believe that the martyred civil rights leader would be more than pleased by the efforts of this real estate mogul turned statesman.

Rest in peace, Dr. King.  Donald Trump has heard your dream and is making it come true.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Costco’s board of directors has encouraged shareholders to vote to support its “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) program after it received a proposal to reject the practice.

The National Center for Public Policy, a conservative think tank, had urged Costco’s shareholders and board to strike DEI because it promoted discriminatory practices, according to the Kirkland, Washington-based retailer in a statement to shareholders.

Several companies, including Tractor Supply Co., Harley Davidson, John Deere, Lowes, and others, have announced they will repeal their DEI policies after facing pushback from conservatives and lawmakers.

In 2024, a number of universities—including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University, and the University of Michigan—have ended their prior practices of soliciting DEI statements for hiring and promotions.

“It’s clear that DEI holds litigation, reputational and financial risks to the Company, and therefore financial risks to shareholders,” the National Center for Public Policy said in its proposal to Costco, according to the statement.

“With 310,000 employees, Costco likely has at least 200,000 employees who are potentially victims of this type of illegal discrimination because they are white, Asian, male or straight,” it added.

Costco’s board urged its shareholders to reject the group’s proposal.

“Among other things, a diverse group of employees helps bring originality and creativity to our merchandise offerings, promoting the ‘treasure hunt’ that our customers value,” Costco said in its proxy statement to its investors.

“We believe (and member feedback shows) that many of our members like to see themselves reflected in the people in our warehouses with whom they interact.”

The proxy statement to its investors was uploaded on Costco’s website on Dec. 26, according to an Epoch Times review.

Costco also said that the think tank was trying to use a “broader agenda” that would not be for “not reducing risk for the Company but abolition of diversity initiatives.”

The company said its DEI efforts attract employees and improve store services.

“For our employees, these efforts are built around inclusion—having all of our employees feel valued and respected. Our efforts at diversity, equity and inclusion remind and reinforce with everyone at our Company the importance of creating opportunities for all,” Costco said.

“We believe that these efforts enhance our capacity to attract and retain employees who will help our business succeed. This capacity is critical because we owe our success to our now over 300,000 employees around the globe.”

DEI policies are a part of an organizational framework that its proponents say reduce discrimination on the basis of identity or disability or provide more representation to groups that proponents say have been subject to discrimination on their identity or disability.

Such policies, however, have come under fire in recent years, particularly from Republicans, including Vice President-elect JD Vance. “DEI is racism, plain and simple,” Vance wrote in June. “It’s time to outlaw it nationwide, starting with the federal government.”

A study published earlier this year found that DEI training and policies increase prejudice in an organization.

“A growing number of high-profile cases suggest that diversity workshops and their supporting materials regularly promote questionable claims—particularly about the overarching, malicious character of the majority population. Similarly, hostility toward those who challenge DEI claims is part of the pattern,” Canadian professor David Haskell said in a study for the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy.

The Epoch Times contacted Costco for additional comment Sunday.

Authored by Jennifer Sweenie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As time marches on, our bodies can gradually enter a state of chronic low-grade inflammation known as inflammaging. This process accelerates the aging process and increases the risk of age-related diseases, from heart conditions to diabetes to cognitive decline.

Inflammaging is a portmanteau of “inflammation” and “aging.” It can burn years off our lifespan, leaving us sick and suffering. However, emerging research shows you can combat inflammaging by adopting simple lifestyle strategies. Adding high-quality protein to your diet, getting enough sleep and sunlight, and making sure you reach your number of steps for the day are just a few straightforward measures you can take.

Understanding the root causes and taking preventive measures to mitigate inflammation can be the difference between enjoying our golden years and not.

Inflammation Is ‘Slow-Burning Fire’

Acute inflammation is your body’s natural response to an injury or unwanted foreign invader, whether a small splinter or a threatening virus. The redness and swelling you experience from a paper cut or sore throat is part of an immune response that keeps you healthy. Inflammation only becomes an issue when it is prolonged or becomes chronic.

“This persistent inflammatory state is subtler and long-term, silently wearing down our cells, tissues, and organs over time,” Dr. Avni Sheth, a general practitioner and functional nutritional therapist in the UK, whose specialties include treating chronic low-grade inflammation, told The Epoch Times in an email.

Chronic inflammation can last for months or even years and may result from a number of factors, including ongoing infections, autoimmune diseases, exposure to toxins or irritants, or lifestyle factors like a poor diet and lack of exercise.

“In essence, ongoing inflammation acts like a slow-burning fire inside the body, gradually eroding health, vitality, and longevity,” said Sheth.

Researchers have identified several hallmarks of aging, and age-related chronic inflammation makes the list.

Key Factors

Several mechanisms can contribute to inflammaging.

Cellular senescence increases with age and is one of the primary contributors to age-related diseases such as limited mobility and impaired cognitive abilities. Senescence is a process where cells stop growing and undergo noticeable changes, such as alterations in their DNA structure, changes in metabolism, increased cell recycling, and the release of pro-inflammatory substances. This process results in the permanent loss of the cell’s ability to reproduce and results in a key characteristic of aging: the depletion of stem cells.

Stem cells are the foundation of many different types of cells in the body. A decline in their number results from senescence, making it harder for tissues to repair and regenerate, leading to damage in surrounding tissues, which fuels inflammaging. The accumulation of senescent cells also releases harmful substances, known as SASPs, which contribute to chronic inflammation.

While not clearly understood yet, mitochondria dysfunction is also linked to inflammaging. The mitochondria are the part of the cell that plays a key role in producing energy and regulating metabolism. Aging often leads to dysfunction in this part, generating free radicals that contribute to chronic inflammation.

Mitochondrial dysfunction and cell senescence are chief signs of aging that are closely linked. The dysfunction in mitochondria is both a cause and effect of cellular senescence, and this interconnection plays a major role in various feedback loops that trigger and sustain cellular aging.

Aging is also associated with the weakening of our immune system function, known as immunosenescence. This decline can interfere with the body’s ability to clear cellular debris effectively, thus increasing inflammation.

“The immune system becomes less efficient, often releasing more inflammatory molecules as it tries to defend the body,” noted Sheth.

Gut health plays a significant role in inflammaging. As we age, the diversity and composition of the gut microbiome can change. An imbalance in gut bacteria can lead to increased intestinal permeability, often called a leaky gut. While a controversial topic, this impaired gut barrier is believed to allow toxins and bacteria to enter the bloodstream, triggering immune responses and promoting inflammation.

Sheth noted that lifestyle factors can also compound inflammation as we get older. Sedentary behavior, stress, poor diet, smoking, and excessive alcohol consumption can increase inflammation and accelerate the aging process. Long-term exposure to environmental elements such as pollutants and toxins may also promote inflammatory responses.

Health Impact

Failing to address chronic inflammation can lead to an increased risk of conditions and a host of health issues.

“Over time, this persistent inflammatory state can impair the body’s ability to repair itself, increasing susceptibility to chronic diseases and reducing overall resilience,” Dr. Hellas Cena, who holds a doctorate in dietetics and clinical nutrition, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“Unchecked chronic inflammation can lead to serious health complications, including cardiovascular disease, metabolic disease, neurodegenerative diseases, cancer, frailty, and reduced quality of life in the elderly,” she continued.

According to the research, it is also a risk factor for mood disorders like depression and autoimmune disease.

Sheth outlined some typical telltale signs that accompany inflammaging:

• Gut Issues: Bloating, gas, irregular bowel movements, and general digestive discomfort can be signs of inflammation, which can cause gastrointestinal tract issues like inflammatory bowel disease.
• Brain Fog: Difficulty concentrating, memory lapses, or feeling “fuzzy-headed” may point to inflammaging. Research supports that higher levels of inflammation negatively affect memory and overall cognitive functioning.
• Stubborn Weight: The inability to lose weight despite exercise and dietary changes may offer a clue. There is an interconnection between inflammation and insulin resistance, and increased adipose tissue is associated with enhanced inflammatory responses.

Insulin resistance leads to elevated insulin levels, which can promote fat storage and make it harder for the body to use fat as fuel. Insulin resistance is the basis for Type 2 diabetes. Moreover, Type 2 diabetes is itself a chronic inflammatory disease. While insulin resistance can result from many factors, the inflammatory response ultimately links the factors.

• Low Energy and Fatigue: Inflammaging may be the culprit of persistent tiredness and difficulty recovering from stress. While fatigue is a broad symptom that can have a myriad of underlying causes, chronic fatigue can be induced by inflammation.
• Aches and Pains: Mild joint or muscle discomfort that seems to linger may have an inflammatory root cause. A review published in the International Journal of Molecular Science in 2019 found that while aging isn’t the sole cause of cartilage degeneration, it is a risk factor. Changes in the joint due to aging can lead to the release of inflammatory substances, resulting in systemic inflammation that causes cartilage damage and pain.

Although these symptoms can be similar to those of various health issues, they often point toward persistent, low-grade inflammation linked to the aging process.

Lifestyle Strategies to Prevent Inflammaging

Limiting inflammaging requires a combination of lifestyle choices and dietary approaches.

Diet

A review published in Nutrients, of which Cena is an author, found that malnutrition—particularly protein malnutrition—significantly contributes to inflammaging in the elderly population. Cena recommends focusing on high-quality protein sources like lean meats, fish, eggs, dairy, legumes, and plant-based proteins, including tofu or soy-derived products. Cena also highlights coordinating timing when it comes to eating protein.

“Distribute protein consumption evenly across meals to support muscle synthesis,” she suggested.

To thwart inflammaging, not only is it essential to maintain sufficient protein intake, but it’s also important to embrace an anti-inflammatory diet abundant in vegetables, bioactive antioxidants, and other nutrient-rich foods, per Cena. Omega-3 oils, found in fatty fish, have anti-inflammatory properties. Anti-inflammatory bioactive compounds can be found in fruits and vegetables, grains, spices, tea, olive oil, fruit juices, wine, chocolate, and beer. Curcumin, in particular, found in turmeric, has been shown to have anti-inflammatory properties.

“A balanced and varied diet plays a crucial role in mitigating the effects of inflammaging and supporting healthier aging,” said Cena.

Sheth offered some simple steps to cover your nutrition bases to help halt inflammaging.

“Swap refined grains for whole grains; add fatty fish like salmon twice a week; include more colorful produce (berries, leafy greens, herbs),” she said.

Exercise

Regular exercise is a means of combatting age-related inflammation. A systematic review published in Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience in 2019 found that aerobic exercise significantly benefits inflammatory markers in middle-aged and older adults. Sheth suggested aiming for 30 minutes of moderate activity, such as walking, cycling, and yoga, on most days of the week. The Centers for Disease Control recommends adults get 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, which can be broken into 30-minute sessions five days per week.

Read the rest here…

Grab some Turmeric to fight inflammation here…

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

In another rollercoaster year for crypto, 2024 delivered monumental wins for Bitcoin hodlers, crypto ETF issuers and memecoin creators, particularly as Bitcoin soared past the $100,000 milestone in December.

But not all was rosy. Scams and hacks cost victims $2.2 billion this year, and failed celebrity memecoin ventures drew the ire of disgruntled investors and their class-action lawyers.

Here are some of crypto’s biggest winners and losers of 2024. 

Winners

Bitcoin hodlers 

Bitcoin crossed over the $100,000 psychological milestone on Dec. 5. Driven by the hundreds of pro-crypto candidates who won seats in Congress and hopes for the most pro-crypto US government in histor. Bitcoin continued to climb afterwards peaking at $108,000 on Dec. 17, but has since fallen towards the end of the year.

As of Dec. 27, CryptoQuant data shows 87% of Bitcoin holders are still in profit at a price of around $96,000. 

Most of the Bitcoin supply is in profit right now. Source: CryptoQuant

Michael Saylor’s software company, MicroStrategy, is among the more high profile groups to significantly benefit from its holdings. According to the Saylor tracker, the firm’s stash of Bitcoin BTC$93,662 is worth $42 billion as of Dec. 27.

In 2021, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a legal tender and bought about 200 coins. The country has since increased its holdings to 5,942 Bitcoin, worth $576 million at current prices. 

Several other firms followed MicroStrategy’s lead and adopted Bitcoin as part of their treasuries as well.

On Dec. 23, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet scooped up another 620 Bitcoin, increasing its holdings to 1,762, worth about $169 million. Its stock price jumped 5% following the announcement, according to Google Finance.

Meanwhile, on Nov. 25, YouTube alternative Rumble confirmed plans to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet, with its shares spiking 12.63% soon after to $7.31, according to Google Finance. 

US crypto ETFs issuers

On Jan. 10, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the 19b-4 applications from asset managers for US Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

According to K33 Research, Bitcoin ETFs surpassed gold funds for the first time on Dec. 16, collectively breaking $129 billion in assets under management (AUM). 

Source: Vetle Lund

The figure included spot Bitcoin ETFs and ETFs that track Bitcoin’s performance using financial derivatives, such as futures.

Memecoins

Memecoins saw another significant pump in 2024, becoming some of the year’s best performers. 

The memecoin market cap currently stands at $104 billion, led by Dogecoin DOGE$0.3148 and Shiba Inu SHIB$0.00002156 at $45 billion and $12 billion, CoinGecko data shows. Year to date, the Solana-based Dogwifhat WIF$1.83 meme token rallied over 879%. Pepe PEPE$0.0000182 is also up 1,205%.

Solana memecoin launchpad Pump.fun was responsible for a huge flood of memecoins throughout the year. According to Dune, the platform’s total revenue is over $325 million despite 98.6% of memecoins failing to even launch. 

Crypto lawyers

Just like previous years, 2024 has been marked by crypto litigation and ongoing bankruptcies.

The SEC was at the center of a few hundred lawsuits against crypto firms, with its Nov. 22 annual report showing $8.2 billion in financial remedies for the year ending Sept. 30. The number of cases declined 26% from the previous year to 583. 

Regardless of the outcome, crypto lawyers have always come out on top. An August report from Bloomberg Law found that law firms working on Chapter 11 crypto bankruptcies alone reportedly requested and received fees totaling $751 million.

There were ten law firms in particular that made some decent coin defending crypto firms this year. Source: Bloomberg Law

In 2023, lawyers, accountants, consultants, analysts and other professionals collected at least $700 million in payments from the bankruptcies of major crypto firms.

Losers

Scam, hack and exploit victims

Scammers were out in force throughout 2024. In a Dec. 19 blog, blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis said total losses from scams, hacks and exploits hit $2.2 billion this year across 303 incidents.

This represented an increase of 21% compared to 2023, which saw $1.8 billion in losses over 282 incidents. Three of the more prominent incidents together made up $825 million stolen this year alone. 

In May, malicious actors suspected by the FBI to be affiliated with North Korea stole over $300 million from the Japanese crypto exchange DMM through social engineering directed at company employees, making it the biggest heist of 2024.

Months before, decentralized finance (DeFi) and gaming platform PlayDapp had $290 million in its PLA tokens drained by hackers who later ignored a $1 million bounty to return them. 

Rounding out the three is one of India’s largest crypto exchanges, WazirX, which had $235 million looted from its vaults in June.

Celebrities jumping on the crypto bandwagon 

In past cycles, some celebrities shilled crypto projects or launched non-fungible tokens (NFT) collections to ride the hype, and this cycle has been no different, with some even landing themselves a proposed class action lawsuit over their controversial token launches this year. 

One of the more recent examples, Haliey Welch, known as the Hawk Tuah girl, launched a memecoin Hawk Tuah (HAWK) on Dec. 4. The token briefly pumped to a peak market cap of $490 million and then dumped rapidly to $41.7 million. Allegations of snipers and insider wallet selling have persisted ever since. 

Investors filed a lawsuit against several entities involved in the launch of the coin on Dec. 19, alleging they promoted and sold an unregistered securities offering.

After a few weeks of radio silence, in a Dec. 20 X post, Welch said she was “fully cooperating” with lawyers. 

Bitcoin paper hands and nocoiners

While there were diehard hodlers, there were also those that sold too early or didn’t jump in at all. 

Germany sold nearly 50,000 Bitcoin seized from movie piracy website, movie2k starting July 12, making a haul of roughly $2.8 billion when Bitcoin was around $57,000— which already garnered plenty of head-shaking from Bitcoiners.

According to CoinGecko, Germany’s 50,000 Bitcoin would be worth around $4.7 billion at current prices.

The US also received criticism from crypto industry executives and observers after it sent 19,800 Bitcoin of its stash from shutting down the online Silk Road black market in 2013, worth $1.9 billion, to crypto exchange Coinbase on Dec. 2. 

The US government’s known addresses still hold a significant amount of crypto. Source: Spot On Chain

According to Spot on Chain, the US government still holds about 183,850 Bitcoin worth around $17.7 billion across various known addresses.

Crypto criminals 

On March 28, former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for his conviction on seven felony charges. 

Plenty of hackers faced the brunt of the law as well, such as Ilya Lichtenstein, the hacker who stole Bitcoin from the crypto exchange Bitfinex in 2016.

US regulators also received over $19 billion in lawsuit settlements from crypto companies in 2024, up 78% more than in 2023, which only saw $10.87 billion paid.

Via Middle East Eye

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a 30 percent increase in the country’s minimum wage in 2025 via social media, more than 40,000 people flooded the comments – many of them critical of the announcement.

Starting next month, the minimum wage in the country will be 22,104 Turkish lira ($630.36), which amounts to a 30 percent increase. While supporters of the move argue that it represents the highest minimum wage in US dollar terms in recent years, critics note that it falls well below the annual inflation rate for 2024.

“We were screwed by the 44 percent [inflation], and now employers only have to pay us 30 percent?” one of those commenting under Erdogan’s post asked. “You’ve already condemned people to hunger and misery, and now you’re condemning them to death.”

Supporters claim the hike aligns with the government’s inflation target of 25 percent for 2025, suggesting it could help combat the country’s persistent inflation problem, which was partially triggered by the president’s historic unorthodox economic policies .

“Looking at my monthly expenses, even basic necessities like food and rent consume most of my salary,” said Meltem, an administrative assistant at a private university.

“This 30 percent increase won’t keep pace with the real inflation we experience in our daily lives.”

Rising rental costs underscore the inadequacies of the new minimum wage, especially since 42 percent of Turks earn just the minimum wage. In Istanbul, the average monthly rent is $709, while in Ankara, it’s $567 – both figures exceed or are close to the minimum wage.

“Minimum wage is, of course, insufficient, and more importantly, there’s a very high percentage of people living on it in Turkey,” explained Tolga, a banker. “When the increase is too low, it simultaneously drags so many people into poverty.”

The geographic disparity in living costs adds another layer of complexity to the issue. “The new minimum wage is very low for workers across Turkey, but I can’t imagine how much more difficult it will be for people living in larger cities,” said Eda, an office worker at a government student hostel (KYK).

‘Invalid’ decision

Workers unions have come out strong against the below inflation minimum wage rise. The Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (Turk-Is) abstained from the final wage determination meeting, while the Confederation of Revolutionary Trade Unions (DISK) declared the decision “invalid”, criticising the rushed process and lack of worker representation.

The wage hike, which will impact approximately nine million workers, comes amid strict monetary and fiscal policies aimed at combating inflation. Although inflation has declined from its May peak of 75 percent, the central bank acknowledges that progress has been slower than expected.

Economist Ibrahim Turhan warned that the implications of minimum wage decisions extend beyond employee salaries. “Many of those working for minimum wage are employed in small family businesses and tradesmen businesses,” Turhan said.

While “increasing the minimum wage is not a difficult thing,” he cautioned that unrealistic jumps could “cause more harm than good” by fuelling further inflation.

A Reuters calculation suggested that even a 25 percent increase could force annual inflation up by between 1.5 to 5 percentage points. However, Turhan said that the new wage level should allow workers to “maintain the purchasing power they had in December 2024 in December 2025.”

On Thursday, Turkey’s Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate from 50 percent to 47.5 percent. “A relatively modest wage increase lowered inflation expectations for next year and allowed the Central Bank to begin its rate-cut cycle,” said one senior Turkish official affiliated with the ruling party.

“It’s a breakthrough in the fight against inflation as well as an economic policy that ensures investor confidence in Turkish markets.”

When asked about the hardship Turkish citizens will endure with a wage hike below inflation, the official acknowledged their struggles. “We have to swallow the bitter pill,” he said, adding: “There is no other way around.”