Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

Mexico is preparing to receive its citizens who have been living in the United States illegally, with government officials planning to open new shelters to accommodate the anticipated influx of deportees.

Some 25 shelters, each capable of housing up to 500 people, will be operational nationwide by Jan. 20 when President-elect Donald Trump takes office, according to Baja California Gov. Marina del Pilar Ávila Olmeda.

The governor said at a Dec. 23 press conference that six of those shelters will be set up in Tijuana, the largest city in her state and just 20 miles south of San Diego, while two others will open in Mexicali, the state capital.

“We think that this time he [Trump] will be stricter and tougher when it comes to deportations, and we are working to be ready to receive our migrants,” the governor said.

The announcement follows recent discussions between Mexican Interior Secretary Rosa Icela Rodríguez and the governors of Mexico’s five northern border states about strategies to handle mass deportations promised by the incoming Trump administration.

“We have already held two meetings with the Ministry of the Interior,” she told reporters.

“All the governors on the northern border [of Mexico with the United States] are working on a plan in which 25 shelters will be created.”

She emphasized that the new shelters will exclusively serve the citizens of Mexico.

“These shelters are designed for repatriated people coming from north to south who are Mexican, not foreigners,” she said. “This must be made very clear—Mexicans will be welcomed back to their country. Here, we will receive them and respect their human rights.”

According to the governor, the shelters will be organized to ensure safety and order, with specific facilities designated for different groups.

“Entire families will be housed in one shelter, another will be for women traveling alone, another for single men, another for unaccompanied teenagers, and yet another for unaccompanied children,” she said.

Deportees are expected to only briefly stay in the shelters before being transported to their hometowns. Ávila noted that her state will work with Mexican federal authorities and other states for that task.

Stopping illegal immigration was a cornerstone of Trump’s presidential campaign, and he has promised to initiate “the largest mass deportation program” in the nation’s history starting on his first day back in the White House.

There aren’t many details on how the operation will be executed. Trump has suggested deploying military resources to achieve the goals.

Tom Homan, Trump’s incoming border czar and former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), has said the new administration might prioritize deporting individuals who pose a threat to public safety and national security, such as those with criminal records, before moving on to others with court-issued removal orders.

Addressing the issue of families with mixed status—such as U.S.-born children with illegal immigrant parents—Homan has suggested that transitional facilities or halfway houses might be necessary.

“They can … stay at home and wait for the officers to get the travel arrangements and come back to get the family,” he said.

Thanks to the leadership of Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, pressure is growing to unmask the beneficiaries of more than $17 million in taxpayer-funded payments to settle harassment claims leveled against US Capitol officials and offices. In his latest move, a Massie social media post on Thursday prompted a chorus of support from from Marjorie Taylor Green along with former GOP House members. 

“Congress has secretly paid out more than $17 million of your money to quietly settle charges of harassment (sexual and other forms) in Congressional offices,” Massie posted on Thursday. “Don’t you think we should release the names of the Representatives? I do.” 

Georgia Rep. Green quickly voiced her support, saying, “Yes. I want to release the congressional sexual slush fund list. Tax payers should have never had to pay for that.” Former Rep. Mo Brooks jumped in, saying “Massie is spot on – taxpayer [money] must NEVER be used to SECRETLY bail out sexual (& other) harassers. A Capitol Hill harassing supervisor should foot the bill. THAT stops harassment!” Former Rep. Jason Chaffetz also boosted the idea, writing  “Taxpayers deserve to know.”

The controversial payouts are made by the Office of Congressional Workplace Rights. Between 1997 and 2017 alone, the little-known office facilitated 260 settlements and more than $17 million in payouts. Given that number is more than seven years old, it’s safe to say the real grand total is significantly higher. Despite its name, the office’s payouts also encompass complaints from workers outside the House and Senate, including the Library of Congress and the Capitol police. 

This isn’t the first time Massie has put a spotlight on the use of taxpayer money to settle harassment claims against members of Congress and their staffs. In June, the libertarian-minded Kentucky representative earnestly brought the topic up in a House Judiciary Committee hearing, as he questioned Federal Election Commission leader Trey Trainor: 

Congress has secretly paid out more than $17 million of your money to quietly settle charges of harassment (sexual and other forms) in Congressional offices.

Don’t you think we should release the names of the Representatives? I do.pic.twitter.com/hmqlLDO2h0

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) December 26, 2024

Massie pointed to the hypocrisy of Democrats’ feigned outrage over Donald Trump using his own money to buy Stormy Daniels’ silence about their alleged sexual encounter, while saying nothing about congressional offices’ use of taxpayer money to brush sexual and other misconduct allegations under the rug.  

“Congress has paid over $17 million in hush money for sexual misconduct inside of the offices in these buildings…[I]t’s taxpayer money. And I do know not a single penny of it has been turned in as a campaign finance expense. Wouldn’t — I mean, is the FEC going to investigate the $17 million that the Congress has paid to settle, you know, behind closed doors, these sexual misconduct allegations?”

Earlier this month, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was the subject of a House Ethics Committee probe into allegations of using illegal drugs and paying underage women for sex, publicly daydreamed about taking office for just one day to singlehandedly reveal the names of everyone who’s benefitted from the settlement payouts. 

Someone suggested the following plan to me:

1. Show up 1/3/2025 to congress
2. Participate in Speaker election (I was elected to the 119th Congress, after all…)
3. Take the oath
4. File a privileged motion to expose every “me too” settlement paid using public funds (even of…

— Former Congressman Matt Gaetz (@FmrRepMattGaetz) December 18, 2024

With the federal government now $36 trillion in debt — and poised to post a $3.5 trillion deficit in 2025 alone — $17 million may not sound like much, but the use of borrowed/printed money to settle sexual and other abuse allegations on Capitol Hill is another symptom of a corrupt and fading empire. 

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Did Santa Get Stuck In The Chimney?

Last week, we discussed that the selloff heading into Christmas was the setup for the beginning of the year-end “Santa Claus” rally. On Christmas Eve, Santa arrived, pushing the markets back above the important 50-DMA. However, the market sold off on Friday to successfully retest the 50-DMA. While it may seem that the “Santa Rally” stalled, I suspect that we could see some buying next week as portfolio window dressing concludes and traders position portfolios in the first two days of January.

As shown, momentum and relative strength are weak currently, but if the market can break back above the 20-DMA, this should bring buyers into the market. As we noted previously, the sell signal keeps a lid on price appreciation, and until that reverses, there is limited upside to the markets over this week. There is also the 24% possibility that a rally fails to materialize entirely. We suggest managing portfolio risk until the market ultimately makes a decisive move.

We continue to monitor yield spreads, which remain near the lowest level since the “Financial Crisis.” When yield spreads were this low previously, this equated to excessive optimism about financial market conditions. This is the same currently, as investors are willing to overpay for the risk they are taking on. Unfortunately, such has not ended well previously, but yield spreads will be the leading indicator for investors to reduce portfolio risk more aggressively.

For now, optimism remains high. But as we will discuss today, that is also a problem we need to monitor closely.

Is Optimism Too Optimistic For 2025?

In “2025 Predictions,“ we showed some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, optimism for the coming year is very high. The median estimate is for the market to rise to 6600 next year, which would be a disappointing return of just 8.2% after two years of 20% plus gains. However, the high estimate from Wells Fargo suggests a 14% return, with the low estimate from UBS of just a 5% return. Notably, there is not one estimate available for a negative return.

Interestingly, optimism for 2025 has taken on an interesting twist. Over the last two years of above-average returns, earnings growth has come from just the top-7 market capitalization companies in the S&P 500 index. However, analysts now expect earnings to shift from the bottom 493 companies in the index.

The optimism in these assumptions is interesting because the economy has grown strongly over the last two years, yet those 493 companies could not grow earnings. What will change in 2025? Yes, President Trump has promised to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but that doesn’t change the previous tax rate in the last two years. He has proposed to remove tax on tips and social security, but that impacts only a small percentage of the population.

On the other hand, depending on the scale and areas of impact, deregulation could improve earnings, but much of that will have to be passed through Congress, which could prove difficult. The Federal Reserve hopes to continue to cut interest rates, but sticky inflation could slow that process, particularly if economic growth remains strong into 2025. Even if the economy continues to grow strongly, what will cause the shift in earnings growth from those dominant market players to much smaller companies? Such is particularly the case given the continued reversal of monetary liquidity in the economy, with higher borrowing costs and declining consumer savings rates.

However, while analyst’s optimism about earnings growth in 2025 is high, which would take earnings well above the long-term growth trend, those estimates are already reversing toward reality. In the last six months, estimates have dropped by $3 per share and will likely be closer to $220 per share by next year. As shown, earnings tend not to deviate from the long-term trend for long, and typically, those deviations only occur during recessions and immediate recoveries.

As discussed recently, if earnings revert toward the long-term trend, which should be expected given that earnings are a function of economic growth, the current valuations become more problematic.

“While the bullish optimism is possible, that outcome faces many challenges in 2025, given the market already trades at fairly lofty valuations. Even in a “soft landing” environment, earnings should weaken, which makes current valuations at 27x earnings more challenging to sustain. Therefore, assuming earnings decline toward their long-term trend, that would suggest current estimates fall to $220/share by the end of 2025. This substantially changes the outlook for stocks, with the most bullish case being 6380, assuming a roughly 4.5% gain versus every other outcome, providing losses ranging from a 2.6% loss to a 20.6% decline.”

But again, those assumptions are based on a continued moderation in economic growth.

Data Suggests A Continued Moderation In Economic Growth

However, to justify the optimism for increased earnings growth, we must also expect that:

1. Economic growth remains more robust than the average 20-year growth rate.

2. Wage and labor growth must reverse (weaken) to sustain historically elevated profit margins.

3. Both interest rates and inflation need to decline to support consumer spending.

4. Trump’s planned tariffs will increase costs on some products and may not be fully offset by replacement and substitution.

5. Reductions in Government spending, debt issuance, and the deficit subtract from corporate profitability (Kalecki Profit Equation).

6. Slower economic growth in China, Europe, and Japan reduces demand for U.S. exports, slowing economic growth.

7. The Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates and continuing to reduce its balance sheet will reduce market liquidity.

You get the idea. While optimism about economic and earnings growth is elevated going into 2025, there are risks to those forecasts. Such is particularly true when examining current economic data’s relative strength and trend. Subdued manufacturing activity, slowing GDP growth, and cautious consumer behavior all point to an economic environment less supportive of aggressive earnings growth. As such, investors must carefully navigate the disconnect between high Wall Street expectations and softening economic conditions.

A better way to visualize this idea is to look at the correlation between the annual change in earnings growth and inflation-adjusted GDP. There are periods when earnings deviate from underlying economic activity. However, those periods are due to pre- or post-recession earnings fluctuations. Currently, economic and earnings growth are very close to the long-term correlation.

Heading into 2025, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remain above real retail sales. While such deviations can occur, they tend not to remain that way long, given that retail sales comprise about 40% of PCE. Such suggests that in 2025, PCE will begin to converge with retail sales, resulting in slower economic growth rates.

The following graph visualizes the plight of the average American by showing the “gap” between the cost of living and income and savings. To fund the current cost of living, consumers must spend all of their income and savings and then subsidize the remainder with almost $4000 in debt annually. This is why total consumer debt continues to rise, which does sustain economic activity in the near term. However, the longer-term impact is slower economic growth as consumers cannot take on excess debt. Also, if interest rates remain elevated, the impact on economic growth is exacerbated.

So, if economic growth slows next year, as the Federal Reserve expects, why is Wall Street so optimistic?

Why Is Wall Street Always Optimistic?

When Wall Street wants to make a stock offering for a new company, it has to sell that stock to someone to provide its client, the company, with the funds it needs. The Wall Street firm also makes a very nice commission from the transaction.

Generally, these publicly offered shares are sold to the firm’s biggest clients, such as hedge funds, mutual funds, and other institutional clients. But where do those firms get their money? From you.

Whether it is the money you invested in your mutual funds, 401k plan, pension fund, or insurance annuity, you are at the bottom of the money-grabbing frenzy. It’s much like a pyramid scheme – all the players above you are making their money…from you.

In a study by Lawrence Brown, Andrew Call, Michael Clement, and Nathan Sharp, it is clear that Wall Street analysts are not interested in you. The study surveyed analysts from major Wall Street firms to understand what happened behind closed doors when research reports were being put together. In an interview with the researchers, John Reeves and Llan Moscovitz wrote:

“Countless studies have shown that the forecasts and stock recommendations of sell-side analysts are of questionable value to investors. As it turns out, Wall Street sell-side analysts aren’t primarily interested in making accurate stock picks and earnings forecasts. Despite the attention lavished on their forecasts and recommendations, predictive accuracy just isn’t their main job.”

The chart below is from the survey conducted by the researchers, which shows the main factors that play into analysts’ compensation. What analysts are “paid” to do is quite different from what retail investors “think” they do.

“Sharp and Call told us that ordinary investors, who may be relying on analysts’ stock recommendations to make decisions, need to know that accuracy in these areas is ‘not a priority.’ One analyst told the researchers:

‘The part to me that’s shocking about the industry is that I came into the industry thinking [success] would be based on how well my stock picks do. But a lot of it ends up being “What are your broker votes?”‘

A ‘broker vote’ is an internal process whereby clients of the sell-side analysts’ firms assess the value of their research and decide which firms’ services they wish to buy. This process is crucial to analysts because good broker votes result in revenue for their firm. One analyst noted that broker votes ‘directly impact my compensation and directly impact the compensation of my firm.’”

You Aren’t Important

The question becomes, “If the retail client is not the firm’s focus, then who is?” The survey table below clearly answers that question.

Not surprisingly, you are at the bottom of the list. The incestuous relationship between companies, institutional clients, and Wall Street is the root cause of the ongoing problems within the financial system. It is a closed loop portrayed as a fair and functional system; however, it has become a “money grab” that has corrupted the system and the regulatory agencies that are supposed to oversee it.

Amid ongoing efforts by the establishment to ban the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party from the upcoming German elections (in the name of democracy?), Billionaire Elon Musk has waded deeper into the politics of this declining nation, in an effort to protect his “significant investments”.

A week after he stated on X that “only the AfD can save Germany”, he has penned a supportive op-ed for the country’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper… prompting the resignation of the paper’s editor.

The initial six word post on X was enough to prompt much wailing and gnashing of teeth among Europe’s cognoscenti, but this op-ed appears to have ratcheted up the panic to ’11’.

First things first, this is not a direct op-ed as one might comprehend it as it’s title clearly highlights: “Why Elon Musk is betting on the AfD – and why he is wrong”

Welt editor-in-chief Jan Philipp Burgard  is careful to remind readers (multiple times) that:

“The AfD is in parts xenophobic and anti-Semitic. That is why it is a danger to Germany.”

Musk makes short work of the farcical “far-right extremist” accusation:

“The portrayal of the AfD as rightwing extremist is clearly false, considering that Alice Weidel, the party’s leader, has a same-sex partner from Sri Lanka! Does that sound like Hitler to you? Please!”

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel SLAMS Angela Merkel and the CDU party, says she destroyed Germany in powerful 13-minute speech.

🇩🇪🔥AfD co-leader Alice Weidel SLAMS Angela Merkel and the CDU party, says she destroyed Germany in powerful 13-minute speech.

“And then came a CDU chancellor (Angela Merkel). Nine years ago, this chancellor wiped away this existing law with the stroke of a pen and established a… pic.twitter.com/EQTXAphgyk

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 16, 2024

The Tesla CEO is undeterred as he covers a variety of topics that Germany needs to address as it near an “economic and cultural collapse,” adding that he has the “right” to address the country’s political climate as he has “made significant investments” in Germany’s technological and industrial sectors. 

In the op-ed, Musk argued that Germany’s economy is handicapped by regulatory overreach and bureaucracy. 

“The AfD has understood that economic freedom is not just desirable, but necessary. Its approach of reducing government over-regulation, cutting taxes and deregulating the market reflects the principles that made Tesla and SpaceX successful,” Musk wrote, according to a rough translation.

“If Germany wants to regain its industrial strength, it needs a party that doesn’t just talk about growth, but also takes policy action to create an environment where companies can thrive without heavy government intervention,” he added.

While the globalist elites panic over Musk’s six word X statement (and now the op-ed), he points out this is not some marginalized political party:

“The AfD, even though it is described as far-right, represents a political realism that resonates with many Germans who feel that their concerns are ignored by the establishment. It addresses the problems of the moment – without the political correctness that often obscures the truth,” the tech billionaire continued.

Musk also said the AfD was “committed to a controlled immigration policy that gives priority to integration and the preservation of German culture and security. This is not about xenophobia, but about ensuring that Germany does not lose its identity in the pursuit of globalization.”

Musk concluded that AfD was the “last spark of hope” for the country.

Following the op-ed’s publication, the paper’s opinion section editor, Eva Marie Kogel, announced her resignation on X. 

“I always enjoyed heading the opinion section of WELT and WAMS. Today an article by Elon Musk appeared in Welt am Sonntag. I handed in my resignation yesterday after it went to print.”

Elections in Germany are set for Feb. 23 following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government. The AfD is now running second in opinion polls with around 19% support, behind the conservative CDU/CSU alliance with more than 30%.

However, Germany’s mainstream parties have all ruled out working with AfD at the national level.

…all of which rings a very loud bell from what we just witnessed in Paris.

Authored by RFE/RL staff via OilPrice.com,

• Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods could trigger trade wars and severely impact European automakers.

• Central and Eastern European countries that rely heavily on car manufacturing would be particularly hard hit by these tariffs.

• The German auto industry, Europe’s largest exporter of passenger cars to the United States, is also highly vulnerable to Trump’s tariff threats.

As Donald Trump prepares to take office on January 20, Europe’s already battered car industry is bracing for additional headwinds amid the threat of new tariffs from the incoming U.S. president.

Trump has pledged to impose steep new tariffs on goods coming from China, Canada, and Mexico in one of his first acts in office, a promise that could ignite trade wars.

That is bad news for European automakers who have already seen sales and manufacturing decline in top markets like the United States and China.

The potential tariffs would be felt hard not only by leading European car brands like Volkswagen, Volvo, and Stellantis — the conglomerate that produces Fiat, Chrysler, and Citroen — but also for the Central and Eastern European countries whose economies rely heavily on making them.

Toma Savic, a former director at Zastava, a Serbian international car manufacturer that was shuttered in 2008, said the tariffs would be a particularly hard blow for operations in the Balkan country.

“This inevitably would lead to the shrinking of production in Europe and mass layoffs,” he said.

Zastava later became Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Serbia, which is owned by Stellantis.

Based in Kragujevac in central Serbia, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Serbia has already been struggling to recuperate its foothold in the European auto industry prior to the breakup of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s when it assembled 200,000 cars annually and exported them to 26 countries.

Germany’s auto industry is also likely to be highly vulnerable to Trump’s promised tariffs, especially given that Europe’s biggest economy is by far the region’s largest exporter of passenger cars to the United States.

European and American carmakers could lose up to 17 percent of their combined annual core profits if the United States imposes import tariffs on Europe, Mexico, and Canada, according to some estimates.

Trump’s Tariff Vision

While Europe was not specifically mentioned in Trump’s first tariff announcement in late November, he took aim at the European Union while on the campaign trail earlier this year and accused European partners of unfair trade practices and stealing American manufacturing jobs.

“They don’t take our cars, they don’t take our farm products, don’t take anything,” Trump said on the campaign trail in October. “They are going to have to pay a big price.”

The U.S. market is the main destination for European passenger cars. Exports amounted to 42.5 billion dollars in 2023, according to Statista, a German online platform that specializes in data gathering and visualization.

In comparison, the value of U.S. vehicles imported to the EU was around 7.8 billion dollars during the same period.

Trump said on the campaign trail in September that he wants German automakers to become “American car companies” and “build their plants here.”

He added that he was prepared to offer low taxes and energy costs to draw more companies to set up manufacturing inside the United States.

In 2016, German carmakers avoided 35 percent tariffs floated by Trump by investing in more production in the United States.

But Trump’s new proposed tariffs could make it more costly for European automakers to set up U.S.-based factories.

A Make Or Break Moment

The threat of new tariffs will add to already growing pressures facing the European auto industry as it looks to compete for the future electric vehicle (EV) market that is dominated by Chinese manufacturers.

Earlier this year, the EU imposed duties of up to 35 percent for EVs from China saying that the “unfairly subsidized” cars have given them a market foothold.

Added to this, car sales for EVs across the EU have dipped downward and some governments have repealed subsidies meant to incentivize consumers to buy the cars.

The rise of Chinese companies, such as EV-leader BYD, has also seen Western car brands lose market share inside China at a steady rate, with Volkswagen in particular grappling with declining sales.

Between tougher competition from China, declining sales at home, and new pressure from Trump, many European automakers are facing a bleak outlook.

Back in Kragujevac, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Serbia is grappling with weak demand, including several fully electric products delayed entirely or produced at tumbling rates.

Jugoslav Ristic, a long-time union official in the car industry in Serbia, said the setbacks are a result of “customs wars and unfavorable business conditions.”

There is also concern that the industry could be further hit by a trade spat if Brussels responds to possible U.S. tariffs. Such an event could increase costs for consumers in both the United States and Europe and particularly hit Germany, the continent’s car behemoth.

The German Economic Institute predicts that if Trump imposes 20 percent tariffs on the EU it could cost the German economy up to 192.5 billion over four years.

Those costs would also have ripple effects in the parts of Central and Eastern Europe that are dependent on car manufacturing.

Slovakia has threatened to cut off electricity to Ukraine if the Russian gas transit route halts at the end of the year, as we detailed earlier. Slovakia is greatly dependent on Russian gas, and Ukraine is not expected to renew a major energy transit contract with Russian state suppliers.

With just a few days away from the start of the new year, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico escalated the standoff by saying he can leverage electricity supplies to Ukraine. “After Jan. 1, we will consider the situation and the possibility of reciprocal measures against Ukraine,” Fico said in a video released Friday.

“If it is unavoidable, we will stop the supply of electricity, which Ukraine urgently needs in the event of grid failures,” he said. The war of words and threats is ratcheting by the day.

Given that Fico just controversially met with Putin in Moscow, the electricity threat is going to add insult to injury at a moment Russian aerial forces have been pummeling Ukraine’s power grid this past week.

Fico lashed out in the most charged statement directed at Kiev to date: “But who cares about Slovakia, right, Mr. Zelenskyy? But when you need something to keep you from freezing in the winter, you scream in frustration,” Fico said.

Zelensky responded Saturday by accusing Slovakia, which is a NATO and EU member state, of opening a “second energy front” against Ukraine on orders from Moscow. 

“It appears that Putin gave Fico the order to open the second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people’s interests,” Zelensky wrote on X.

“Fico’s threats to cut off Ukraine’s emergency power supply this winter while Russia attacks our power plants and energy grid can only be explained by this,” he emphasized. He charged that Putin is “dragging Slovakia into Russia’s attempts to cause more suffering for Ukrainians.”

As Russia’s aerial assaults on Ukraine’s energy grid have grown worse, Ukraine has relied more and more on electricity imports from neighboring and outside countries to survive.

Zelensky has indicated the Slovakia accounts for 19% of Ukraine’s power imports, which is a significant portion, and outsized given Slovakia’s small geographic size. Clearly, Fico does have serious leverage at his disposal.

Today, I reviewed the details of electricity imports from the EU to Ukraine via Slovakia—accounting for about 19% of the total volume. Fico won’t cut off our imports. We are working with other neighbors in the EU.

I have instructed our officials to work together with the… pic.twitter.com/SzhvOAjutl

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 28, 2024

“Slovakia is part of the single European energy market and Fico must respect common European rules,” the Ukrainian leader further said Saturday.

Fico has long been target of vitriol from Kiev officials, given he has consistently and loudly opposed Ukraine’s entry into NATO, in common with Hungary’s Viktor Orban. “As long as I am the prime minister of the Slovak Republic, as long as I lead the deputies, whom I, as the party chairman, have under political control, I will never agree to Ukraine’s membership in NATO,” Fico declared this past October.

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Thursday marks the 30-day mark in the 60-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. While plainly obvious that IDF military operations never really ceased, Israel is now openly talking about staying in Lebanon past the 60-day pullout deadline.

Even more concerning, Israel has pushed the offensive deeper into southern Lebanon, seizing the town of Wadi al-Hujeir and firing rounds of machine gun fire as troops advance, forcing the civilian population to flee once again.

Wadi al-Hujeir is nearly five miles over the Blue Line, deeper than Israel’s invasion actually penetrated during the war that was supposed to end with last month’s ceasefire. The town also lies along the Litani River, beyond which Hezbollah was to remove its forces after the war.

But travel in occupied southern Lebanon is a difficult business, even 30 days into the ceasefire, as Israel seems to attack anything and everything trying to return to the towns and villages that were seized.

The roads around Wadi al-Hujeir have now been closed by Lebanese officials in an effort to keep the civilian population safely away from continuing Israeli incursions.

Multiple voices have expressed growing concern about Israel’s looming failure to withdraw from Lebanon and its continued firing on Lebanese territory despite the nominal ceasefire.

UNIFIL issued such a statement about the continuing damage Israel is causing in residential and agricultural areas, and on road networks throughout southern Lebanon.

Israel has issued no statement on the new incursions, nor any official clarification surrounding media reports that it’s looking to stay beyond next month’s deadline.

Since the US was meant to be the guarantor of the ceasefire, it was expected that the US would say something about the hundreds of Israeli violations. So far, however, the US has not even broached the subject.

The US seems to consider the ceasefire announcement all it was prepared to do, and, in actuality, all it is likely ever to do.

Update (Sunday):

The death toll rose to 177, leaving just two of the 181 souls on board the Boeing 737-800 jetliner unaccounted for, according to The Guardian. 

Two crew members—one male and one female—survived and are currently hospitalized. The two survivors were found in the aircraft’s tail section, the only part of the plane that retained some of its shape after the high-speed runway crash. 

Jeju Air Flight 2216 from Bangkok to Muan, South Korea, crashed and caught fire after a ‘bird strike’ reportedly caused a landing gear malfunction, forcing the pilots to land the jet on its belly. However, the pilots could not burn off enough airspeed during the landing approach and flaring process during the landing, resulting in the aircraft crashing into a berm at the end of the runway.

BREAKING: Video shows crash of Jeju Air Flight 2216 in South Korea. 181 people on board pic.twitter.com/9rQUC0Yxt8

— BNO News (@BNONews) December 29, 2024

One X user asked: “I’m puzzled as to why the pilots of Jeju Air Flight 2216 didn’t use the landing gear manual extension. It’s incredibly strange that both hydraulic systems A & B failed simultaneously, leading to an attempt to land on a short runway without gear or flaps. This decision seems like madness.”

I’m puzzled as to why the pilots of Jeju Air Flight 2216 didn’t use the landing gear manual extension. It’s incredibly strange that both hydraulic systems A & B failed simultaneously, leading to an attempt to land on a short runway without gear or flaps. This decision seems like… pic.twitter.com/P4DUzkpY8X

— Fahad Naim (@Fahadnaimb) December 29, 2024

This aviation disaster is shaping up to be one of the country’s worst, surpassing the Korean Airlines Boeing 747 crash in the Guam jungle in 1997, which claimed 228 lives. The investigation into Sunday’s crash could take years to complete.

Terrible week for air travel. 

What a sad week for air travel.

– Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 28243
– KLM Flight 1204
– Jeju Air Flight 2216
– Air Canada Flight 2259 pic.twitter.com/xCUOTu144r

— Kerb (@Curve251) December 29, 2024

Flight 2216 is expected to overshadow the political and economic turmoil in South Korea’s news cycle for the foreseeable future.

*    *    * 

At least 85 people were killed when a Jeju Airlines airplane veered off the runway and erupted into a fireball as it slammed into a concrete wall at South Korea’s Muan International Airport on Sunday, Yonhap reported, after its landing gear malfunctioned following what aviation authorities say was a likely bird strike.

Video shared by local media showed the twin-engine aircraft skidding down the runway with no apparent landing gear before slamming into a wall in an explosion of flame and debris. Other photos showed smoke and fire engulfing parts of the plane.

South Korean broadcaster MBC News has released footage of the Jeju Air Flight 2216 crash. The footage reveals that none of the aircraft’s landing gear was deployed at the time of impact: https://t.co/41fmWgZ1NY pic.twitter.com/3xRYPshKjH

— GMI (@Global_Mil_Info) December 29, 2024

The crash occurred shortly after 9 a.m. (0000 GMT) as Jeju Air flight 7C2216, yet another unfortunate Boeing 737 aircraft (an 800, not a Max), was carrying 175 passengers and 6 crew members to Muan International Airport, in the country’s south from the Thai capital Bangkok.

A Jeju Air flight from Bangkok with 175 passengers and six crew members skidded off the runway and crashed into a fence at Muan International Airport in South Korea this morning.

The Boeing 737-800 erupted into flames shortly after the collision.

📷: Social media

🧵1 pic.twitter.com/4PRD5SijRC

— BFM News (@NewsBFM) December 29, 2024

At least 33 bodies have been recovered but that number is not final, a fire official told Reuters.

Two people were found alive and rescue operations were still under way, a Muan fire official said. The official and the transport ministry could not confirm the reports of 28 dead. Yonhap said three people had been rescued. Authorities were working to rescue people in the tail section, an airport official told Reuters.

The passengers included two Thai nationals, and the rest are believed to be South Koreans, according to the transportation ministry.

Jeju Air, the airplane’s operator, was seeking details of the accident, including its casualties and cause, an airline spokesperson said.

South Korean acting President Choi Sang-mok, who was named interim leader of the country on Friday after the previous acting president was impeached amid an ongoing political crisis, ordered all-out rescue efforts, his office said. His chief of staff convened an emergency meeting.

The incident is suspected to have been caused by a landing gear malfunction following a bird strike, according to the local fire department.

South Korean broadcaster MBC News has released footage purportedly capturing a bird strike on Jeju Air Flight 2216 shortly before its crash: https://t.co/41fmWgZ1NY pic.twitter.com/OpJd6oW0Nb

— GMI (@Global_Mil_Info) December 29, 2024

The Korean transport ministry said it was investigating the crash. The airline and the fire department were not immediately available for comment.

The fatal crash takes place just days after a Dec. 25 crash involving an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane, killing dozens.

All within the span of 3 days…

This is a dark time for the aviation industry. pic.twitter.com/Wppd6iPuRc

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) December 29, 2024

Russian media has picked up on a report in Germany’s Bild newspaper which highlights a German government assessment saying the country is defenseless against the Russian Oreshnik missile system.

“The Patriot is not right to combat longer-range ballistic missiles, such as the Oreshnik,” Bild quoted a government document as saying, in reference to the US-supplied air defense missile system. “Any interception would be more like sheer luck.”

The report further underscored that currently Germany has no effective method of intercepting an inbound ballistic missile, following decades of a ‘neutral’ and degraded post-WWII military.

“The order came without any specific reason, such as an upcoming trip. It is unclear why the German Foreign Ministry wanted to document this defense gap in Germany. After all, these facts are known to the Ministry of Defense, and appropriate measures have long been taken,” a military expert was cited in Bild as explaining of the context of the document.

Berlin has over the last few years since the start of the Ukraine war been rapidly seeking to build its defenses and expand military spending.

The fact that Russia has already used the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile in Ukraine on more than one occasion has likely put greater fear and urgency in European defense officials. Moscow was sending a big ‘message’.

Russian state media sources have touted that the Oreshnik reaches speeds greater than Mach 10+, and can reach 5,500km in distance, or 3,400+ miles (as a medium-range weapon).

A retired Russian Army colonel and military analyst, identified as Viktor Litovkin, has described, “The West does not have missiles that fly at such a speed or hypersonic missiles at all.” 

He said further, “Although the US has repeatedly boasted that it has such missiles, it has never demonstrated a missile flight. They appeared to show missiles that flew at a supersonic speed of 5.5 times the speed of sound or Mach 5.5. However, hypersonic speed begins at Mach 6-7.”

With the prior collapse of the INF treaty, which regulated Russian and US ballistic missile deployments throughout the world, Moscow is very wary of a potential US missile build-up in Europe, which it says it is ready to mirror if threatened.

Authored by Sam Faddis via ANDMagazine.com,

Biden began his term in office by abandoning Afghanistan to the Taliban and allowing the creation of a new terrorist super state. He is finishing his time in the Oval Office by watching helplessly as a new Caliphate is formed in the rubble of what was once Syria. Divorced from reality as always, his hapless State Department now calls the jihadi ruler of Damascus Al-Jolani a “pragmatist” and talks mindlessly about accommodation and cooperation with mass murderers and rapists.

Meanwhile, inside Syria, the new Islamic rulers are losing no time in consolidating their rule and making clear their intentions. On 26 December, Al-Jolani appointed former Al-Qaeda commander and Nusra Front co-founder Anas Hassan Khattab as the head of the country’s general intelligence agency. Khattab was designated a “terrorist” by the United Nations a decade ago. According to the UN, he was involved “in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or activities by, in conjunction with, under the name of, on behalf of, or in support of” and “otherwise supporting acts or activities of” the Nusra Front. This Al-Qaeda offshoot was rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in 2017.

Those are the guys who now run Syria.

As the head of intelligence Khattab’s job will not be to prepare detailed analyses of foreign developments. He will be in charge of domestic security. His job will be to crush any dissent and guarantee Al-Jolani stays in power. He has already been performing that function in the areas that HTS has controlled for years, where torture and murder are common tactics used to stifle dissent.

Last week, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, a founding member of Al-Qaeda in Syria, was appointed foreign minister for the new terrorist state being created in Syria.

Meanwhile, more information is becoming available on the composition of the jihadist forces that drove Assad from power. Contrary to press reports that want to characterize the ousting of Assad as some sort of liberal, democratic, populist movement, the reality appears to be that substantial numbers of fighters from outside of Syria are present on the ground. Just before Christmas, a video surfaced of a Christmas tree in a town in Syria being burned by Islamists. It now appears the terrorists who carried out this action were Uzbek fighters fighting with Al-Jolani’s forces.

In fact, substantial numbers of Central Asians are in Syria and serving the new Caliphate. According to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI),

“The exact number of Tajik, Uzbek, and Chinese Uyghur citizens present in Syria is unknown, but these individuals operate in three separate groups under the leadership of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham.”

“Tajik jihadis residing in Syria operate under an organization called Jaish Al-Jihad Imam Abu Hanifa. Members of this group refer to its flag and name as the central focus of their activities on their Telegram channels. Several Telegram channels affiliated with this organization are active, sharing jihadi messages and reports from the Syrian battlefield.”

“One of the Tajik jihadis in Syria, known as ‘Musafir Tactical’, produces videos on YouTube and Telegram to promote and recruit young Tajiks for the war. He also creates content teaching weapon usage, the operation of communication devices, the repair of automatic weapons, and guerrilla warfare tactics.”

“Another member of the group, known as Mohsen Tajiki, also has thousands of followers on social media. Since the start of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham’s offensive on Aleppo, he has been providing updates moment by moment on the advances toward villages and towns under the control of Bashar Al-Assad’s government.”

“The East Turkestan Islamic Party is one of the most active jihadi groups in Syria, and compared to other Central Asian-origin groups, it has more resources and manpower. This group is a Uyghur jihadi organization that has been active in the Syrian civil war since around 2012. Its stated goal is to establish an Islamic state in the Xinjiang region of China (East Turkestan) and it is aligned with various jihadi groups in Syria, including branches of Al-Qaeda.”

“Fighters from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are also present in Syria, having fought under the flag of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham during the attack on Aleppo, and are now on the front lines fighting to advance toward other cities in Syria. These Uzbek and Kyrgyz fighters operate within a group called Katibat Al-Tawhid wAl-Jihad, which was established in northern Syria in 2013.”

“In March 2022, the U.S. Department of State designated this group as a terrorist organization due to its terrorist activities and its connections with international terrorist organizations, including Al-Qaeda.”

None of this is consistent with the fiction that Syria is now controlled by individuals seeking a liberal democratic order and cooperation with the West. It is a picture of a nation that has fallen to radical Islamic forces and which will now in tandem with Afghanistan serve as a launching pad for attacks on the United States and its allies.

Already Al-Jolani’s boys are moving fast to consolidate power. They are demanding that all rival groups turn in their weapons and disarm. They are beginning to proscribe rules for women’s dress throughout the country. They are also advising that anyone who fears Islamic rule is simply misinformed. You will live under Sharia law and you will like it.

We spent twenty years fighting a war against Islamic terror. That war is not over. We simply stopped shooting back. In a matter of years, we have allowed the creation of two radical terrorist states from which attacks can be launched worldwide. The newest of those is in the heart of the Middle East.

Don’t look now. Al Qaida is winning. There is a brand new caliphate in Syria.