Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Crystal Mangum, a former exotic dancer who in 2006 accused three Duke University lacrosse players of raping her, acknowledged for the first time in a new interview that she made up the accusations.

Mangum had said in 2006 that the players – David Evans, Collin Finnerty, and Reade Seligmann – raped her in a house near Duke’s campus during a team party at which she performed.

“They took me into my home … and they trusted me, that I wouldn’t betray their trust. And I testified falsely against them by saying that they raped me when they didn’t, and that was wrong,” Mangum said on a podcast episode released on Dec. 11.

The players were arrested and charged with rape and other crimes.

The case garnered national attention and the tension was fueled when former Durham County district attorney Mike Nifong said in a March 2006 interview with CBS News that “there’s no doubt a sexual assault took place” and that the assault was “racially motivated.”

“The circumstances of the rape indicated a deep racial motivation for some of the things that were done.

It makes a crime that is by its nature one of the most offensive and invasive even more so,” said Nifong, who served as the lead prosecutor in the case.

Nifong initially said that DNA would prove the players’ innocence, but he reversed his statement when the tests returned negative.

Then-North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper dropped the charges after taking over the case and concluding the students were innocent.

Nifong was disbarred for withholding evidence from defense lawyers.

Former Duke University President Richard Brodhead, who canceled the rest of the lacrosse season and suspended the players, said later that officials presumed the students were innocent and trusted the legal system to work but that they failed to contact the players and their families or make clear that the allegations may not have been true.

“We did not get it right, causing the families to feel abandoned when they most needed support,” he said at the time. “This was a mistake. I take responsibility for it, and I apologize.”

Evans, Finnerty, and Seligmann filed a lawsuit against both Brodhead and the university, ultimately reaching an undisclosed settlement.

Mangum, 42, was never charged in relation to the accusations she leveled against the players. She has been serving a prison sentence for second-degree murder after killing her boyfriend.

Mangum, who said in a 2008 book that she was assaulted, said in the new interview that she “made up a story that wasn’t true” because she “wanted validation from people and not from God.”

Mangum said she reads the Bible every day, relies on her faith, and is hopeful the players can forgive her.

“I hope that they can forgive me … and I hope that they can heal and trust God and know that God loves them and that God is loving them through me, letting them know that they’re valuable,” she said, adding that the players did not deserve to be falsely accused.

Katerena DePasquale, who hosts the podcast that released the interview, said in a statement that her goal was to see a person “navigating an imperfect system.”

She said that Mangum “shared something significant and vulnerable, despite the risks involved,” and called her courageous.

Mangum had never publicly stated that she fabricated the rape allegation before Thursday’s revelation.

She can no longer be prosecuted for lying under oath since the statute of limitations on perjury charges under North Carolina law is two years.

With Donald Trump set to retake office in January, the Biden administration is scrambling to auction off unused sections of Trump’s border wall, the Daily Wire reports. According to an anonymous US Customs and Border Patrol agent, wall sections are being removed from key areas such as Tucson, Arizona – a notorious hotspot for illegal border crossings.

According to the agent, the operation involves removing up to half a mile of wall per day, with materials being transported from Nogales, Tucson, and Three Points. The aim? To clear the border of these materials before Christmas, disrupting Trump’s plans to resume construction.

EXCLUSIVE: Weeks before Trump takes office, Biden is racing to auction off unused border wall materials.

Video shows trucks hauling wall materials off the border to a government auction site, where a massive amount of wall is waiting to be sold. pic.twitter.com/ogaQMBHw7R

— Daily Wire (@realDailyWire) December 12, 2024

“They are taking it from three stations: Nogales, Tucson, and Three Points,” said the agent. “The goal is to move all of it off the border before Christmas.“

Trump made clear during his campaign that he intends to finish construction of the border wall, making use of the materials that have remained untouched at the border since President Joe Biden took office in 2021. If the material brought to the border during his first term is sold off, it will significantly delay any progress on one of Trump’s flagship campaign promises at the border. –Daily Wire

The materials are reportedly being carted north on Interstate 19 to Pinal Airpark in Marana, Arizona, where they’re auctioned off by GovPlanet, a surplus government equipment auctioneer. Video evidence from the site shows piles of these steel bollard wall sections, listed online for as low as $5.00 starting bids in upcoming auctions.

The auction website shows that sales occurred as recently as December 4 for precisely the types of materials being pulled off the border. GovPlanet has online auctions set for Dec. 11 and Dec. 18 for more of the border wall material, which is listed on the company’s website as “32.91’ X 7.91’ Steel Bollard Wall Sections w/Grout.”

“They just started taking all the wall that was not used, which is still totally good and usable, and they started taking it northbound,” the agent said, adding “They’re pulling it all off the border.”

The owner of the trucking company, Harold Lambeth, confirmed to the Wire that his company is hauling the unused border wall sections north, away from the construction sites.

The move has sparked outrage among Trump supporters and border security advocates. Representative Eli Crane (R-AZ), whose district includes Pinal Airpark, accused the Biden administration of intentionally hamstringing Trump’s efforts to secure the border, calling it “a direct affront to the will of the people.”

“The Biden Administration is well aware they shouldn’t have reversed the construction of the border wall. If it’s true, they’re purposefully hamstringing an incoming president, it wouldn’t be shocking,” Crane told the outlet. “Why would they want to see President Trump succeed with policies they aggressively sabotaged?”

According to the anonymous agent, “When Trump comes back, and he wants to start the border wall all over again, the whole entire funding fight is gonna happen again,” adding “That’s their play. He’s gonna have to fight for this — again.”

The Biden administration, meanwhile, sent the Wire on a wild goose chase for the facts.

The Customs and Border Protection Agency referred The Daily Wire to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, saying the latter had jurisdiction over the materials until they are erected. From there, The Daily Wire was referred to the Defense Logistics Agency, where an official said the standing policy is to refer all media requests on this to the public affairs team at the Office of the Secretary of Defense. A member of the public affairs team declined to respond to inquiries. -Daily Wire

We assume Mayorkas and the rest of the bad actors behind the last four years of US border policy will be pardoned before Jan. 20.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Russia is recalibrating its balancing act within the RIC triangle.

Reuters reported that Russia agreed to supply India with nearly half a million barrels of discounted oil a day for 10 years in a deal that’s worth $13 billion a year at today’s prices and amounts to 0.5% of global supply.

It follows Defense Minister Singh’s visit to Moscow where he praised their friendship as “higher than the highest mountain and deeper than the deepest ocean” and precedes Putin’s trip to India next year.

This is a historic deal with many implications, the top five most significant of which are as follows:

1. Reliable Revenue & Accelerated Growth

Russia will receive reliable budgetary revenue while India’s growth will accelerate from the large-scale import of discounted oil, thus enabling the first to better manage sanctions pressure while the second will approach its goal of becoming the world’s third-largest economy at a faster pace. This decade-long arrangement also creates a solid basis for diversifying from their strategic partnership’s hitherto military–centricity, and it’s possible that some of Russia’s forthcoming profits could be reinvested inside of India.

2. Russia’s South Asian Energy Pivot

The abovementioned trend is part of Russia’s South Asia energy pivot, which also includes Afghan and Pakistani dimensions that were elaborated on here in terms of the larger context. The Kremlin plans to preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on China by relying on the South Asian market, with India at its core, as a counterbalance. RT importantly informed their audience that “The new deal reportedly accounts for roughly a half of Rosneft’s seaborne oil exports from Russian ports.”

3. OPEC+ Probably Won’t Mind All That Much

Oilprice.com wrote that the deal “could cause friction among OPEC+ members as Russia encroaches on Gulf producers’ market share in India”, but while Russia is now India’s top oil supplier at around one-third of its needs, that still leaves the other two-thirds for Saudi Arabia and the UAE to fill. Moreover, Russia isn’t their competitor in the ASEAN, European, or Japanese markets, those two Gulf Kingdoms’ leaders have excellent personal ties with Putin, and their bilateral relations with Russia are close too.

4. Trump Isn’t Expected To Sanction India

It was assessed last month that “Trump Can Repair The Damage That Biden Dealt To Indo-US Ties” due to his incoming Indophilic team, hence why he isn’t expected to sanction India for this historic deal. His grand strategic goal is to “un-unite” Russia and China in order to more effectively contain the latter, to which end it serves US interests for Russia to rely more on India as a counterweight to China. If he imposes any oil-related sanctions, it might be on China to reduce Russia’s supply to it, not on India.

5. China’s Basement-Bargain Price Demands Backfired

The basement-bargain prices that China reportedly began to demand after February 2022 in exchange for clinching a deal on the long-negotiated Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline shocked Russian policymakers since they conformed to hitherto unbelievable Western reports about that country’s exploitative nature. To be sure, relations are at an historic high and bilateral trade has never been better, but this bitter experience led to the Kremlin preferring India over China as Russia’s most strategic energy partner.

The historic Russian-Indian oil deal is a new milestone in these two’s decades-long strategic partnership. It proves that their relations are enduring and expanding in spite of external pressures.

Just as importantly, it also disproves speculation that Russia is leaning towards China at India’s expense in the RIC triangle, which forms the core of BRICS and the SCO.

To the contrary, Russia is now very clearly leaning closer towards India, though this isn’t at China’s expense nor will it ever be.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has sent a letter to local officials in southern Texas outlining a new mission: to transform the remote area where the company launches rockets into an incorporated town named “Starbase, Texas.”

SpaceX launches rockets on the southern tip of Texas at Boca Chica Beach, near the Mexican border.

Starbase is going to be a city – been a long time coming! https://t.co/YPMHhYOIfK pic.twitter.com/JoXU4GN5Vd

— RGV Aerial Photography (@RGVaerialphotos) December 13, 2024

Incorporating the remote area would “streamline the processes required to build the amenities necessary to make the area a world-class place to live—for the hundreds already calling it home, as well as for prospective workers eager to help build humanity’s future in space,” the company wrote in a letter to Cameron County Judge Eddie Treviño Jr., the county’s top elected official. 

“As you know, through agreements with the County, SpaceX currently performs several civil functions around Starbase due to its remote location, including management of the roads, utilities, and the provision of schooling and medical care for the residents. Incorporation would move the management of some of these functions to a more appropriate public body,” the letter said.

SpaceX HQ will now officially be in the city of Starbase, Texas! https://t.co/zpN4t3mJQT

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 13, 2024

AP News quoted Judge Treviño, who said there were incorporation talks in 2021. However, this was the first time a petition was officially filed. 

“Our legal and elections administration will review the petition, see whether or not it complied with all of the statutory requirements and then we’ll go from there,” the judge said. 

Earlier this year, the judge issued a local impact study finding that 3,400 full-time SpaceX employees and contractors work at the rocket launch site.

SpaceX’s rapid expansion comes as Gwynne Shotwell, president of SpaceX, told investors last month that Starship launches over the next four years could exceed 400. 

CNBC confirmed on Wednesday that the latest valuation for SpaceX hit $350 billion based on a secondary share sale. 

As previously noted, SpaceX launched 362 metric tons of upmass to space in the third quarter. In other words, Musk’s company launched 86% of the upmass in the world, beating all rocket programs, including ones funded by nation-states.

Starship’s fifth test flight in early October was groundbreaking…

With data and flight learnings as our primary payload, Starship’s sixth flight test once again delivered → https://t.co/oIFc3u9laE pic.twitter.com/O6ZKThQRr6

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) November 20, 2024

SpaceX is why America is years ahead of the rest of the world in the space race.

Aerospace giant Boeing warned earlier this year that supply chain snarls, persistent inflation, and workforce challenges have impacted the construction timeline of two new Air Force One presidential aircraft. 

A new report from the Wall Street Journal suggests that continued delays indicate President-elect Donald Trump will not get to fly in the new Boeing 747s during his second term, with the latest projections targeting 2029 or later.

Trump is frustrated with the delays. Here’s more from WSJ: 

Frustrated with the delays, Trump raised the project with Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg when the two men spoke by phone in November. As he prepares to return to the White House, Trump has repeatedly asked advisers about the status of Boeing’s work. Boeing used to be a great American company, he has told aides, according to people briefed on the discussions. What happened to them? Trump has asked.

In 2018, during President-elect Trump’s first term, Boeing received a $3.9 billion contract to build two new 747-8 aircraft for use as Air Force One. The aircraft were supposed to be delivered by the end of this year.

Ted Colbert, head of Boeing Defense, Space & Security, spoke with Fox Bussiness in July, revealing that supply chain, inflation, workforce, and other challenges in building the airplanes pushed out delivery timelines.

“Our team is fighting through a very, very challenging program – two very complex airplanes,” Colbert said at the time, adding, “We’ve done a ton of investment in our workforce and training, efficiency, work on the factory floor.”

In 2023, the Biden administration decided to reverse Trump’s decision to switch to a red, white, and blue scheme, from the current white with two shades of blue, a design that dates back to the Kennedy administration. 

“The delay is startling given that Boeing isn’t building the planes from scratch,” WSJ noted.

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Wednesday that he had proposed the idea of Ukraine and Russia establishing a Christmas truce, but it was rejected by Ukrainian President Voldomyr Zelensky.

“At the end of the Hungarian EU Presidency, we made new efforts for peace. We proposed a Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner exchange,” Orban wrote on X. “It’s sad that President [Zelensky] clearly rejected and ruled this out today. We did what we could!”

Orban didn’t specify how the proposal was presented or how Russia responded. His post on X was a response to Zelensky apparently taking a shot at the Hungarian leader for speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier in the day.

“We all hope that [Orban] at least won’t call Assad in Moscow to listen to his hour-long lectures as well,” Zelensky wrote on X, referring to the recently deposed Syrian leader who fled to Moscow.

“There can be no discussions about the war that Russia wages against Ukraine without Ukraine,” he emphasized, and not for the first time.

In Orban’s statement on the call with Putin, he said Hungary is “taking every possible diplomatic step to argue in favor of a ceasefire and [peace] talks.”

The Kremlin said that during the call, Putin blamed Ukraine for the lack of a diplomatic solution to the war:

“Vladimir Putin shared his fundamental views on the current developments surrounding Ukraine and the destructive policies of the Kiev regime, which continue to rule out the possibility of resolving the conflict peacefully,” the Kremlin said.

USA today. The future has begun! 🇭🇺🇺🇸
An afternoon in Mar-a-Lago with @realDonaldTrump, @elonmusk and @michaelgwaltz. pic.twitter.com/xYs5q8fqGq

— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) December 9, 2024

Orban has been one of the few NATO leaders who has maintained contact with Putin, and he has consistently called for a ceasefire in Ukraine, angering other European Union nations.

US equity futures pointed to a strong end to the week, as a premarket surge in Broadcom powered gains across the entire chip and tech complex, even as European bourses dipped and Asian markets took it on the chin after the latest Chinese stimulus disappointment. As of 8:00am S&P500 futs gained 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%, with shares in Broadcom surging 15% after it predicted a 65% increase in sales of AI chips in the fiscal first qtr; if gains holds, the stock will hit a record high, inching closer to a $1 trillion market cap. Peers Marvell, Micron, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices also rose. US 10Y yields gained 3bps rising to 4.35%, highest since Nov. 25; the dollar reversed earlier gains with the euro bouncing after Macron named centrist Bayou as the new French PM. Crude oil futures rose to a weekly high. On tap today we have US Import/Export prices (8:30am ET), Eurozone + UK Industrial production, Japan Industrial production

In premarket trading, Broadcom surged 18% after the chip supplier for Apple Inc. and other big tech companies predicted a boom in demand for its artificial intelligence chips. Costco shares also rose in premarket trading after the retailer reported first-quarter earnings per share that came in ahead of consensus estimates. TD Cowen noted that newness, quality and value are resonating strongly with US consumers. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• EVgo (EVGO) rises 11% after the company closed on a $1.25 billion Energy Department loan to help expand its EV charging network. JPMorgan says “EVgo delivered an early holiday gift to investors.”
• RH (RH) jumps 18% after the furniture retailer raised its revenue forecast for 2025 and swung to a profit in the third quarter.
• TaskUS (TASK) gains 8% after Morgan Stanley turned bullish on the IT services firm, saying the company is a beneficiary from AI with exposure to key customers Meta and OpenAI, which will drive growth in 2025 and 2026.

Stock markets are likely to extend their gains into next week, when the Fed is priced to deliver another quarter-point reduction. The S&P 500 has rallied 27% this year, and strategists polled by Bloomberg predict it will outpace European peers again in 2025. As of today, the S&P is on pace for the best full-year return this century.

“You have a US economy which is doing well and an incoming administration that is very pro-corporate — all that is in the price, but it doesn’t mean the rally can’t extend,” said Timothy Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Global Markets.

Unlike the US where every day is a meltup, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index traded down 0.3% near session lows amid continued disappointment over the lack of concrete stimulus measures from China. Miners provided a drag, tracking iron ore futures lower after China’s Central Economic Work Conference seemed to underwhelm investors. Insurer Munich Re was a notable gainer after it forecast a net income boost next year.  Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Munich Re shares rise as much as 5.5% after the insurance giant outlined a net profit target for 2025 that was welcomed by analysts. Jefferies said it had anticipated a more cautious outlook, while Citi noted the target is being well-received considering its history of over-delivering
• Soitec shares shares gain as much as 7.7%. Bernstein analysts say visibility is finally improving at the semiconductor wafer maker, after a string of warnings
• St James’s Place shares rise as much as 4.6% after being upgraded by Deutsche Bank, which sees a more positive investment case for the UK wealth manager after digging deeper into the potential impact of an ongoing advice issue and new charging structure
• CD Projekt falls as much as 5.8% following the release of a 6-minute trailer of the new The Witcher IV game. The video is seen by analysts as a signal that the Polish studio aims to premiere its latest version of the medieval monster slayer game in 2026
• Outokumpu falls as much as 7.2%, the most since April, after the Finnish stainless steel manufacturer said its 4Q adjusted Ebitda will be close to breakeven or turn negative amid recent adverse developments in business in Europe
• TeamViewer shares fall as much as 6.7% after Berenberg downgrades the stock to hold from buy, seeing a risk that the software firm may have overpaid for its acquisition of 1E
• Impax shares fall as much as 24%, the most in over 21 years, after UK wealth manager St. James’s Place terminated the asset manager’s mandate to manage the Sustainable & Responsible Equity Fund
• Tullow Oil shares drops as much as 8.9% in London, paring initial gains after company confirmed preliminary talks with Kosmos Energy about an all-share offer by Kosmos for Tullow late Thursday

Earlier in the session, Asian shares fell led by losses in China after authorities again left investors waiting on the specifics of the fiscal stimulus even as their key policy meeting produced a vow to boost consumption. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.1%, the most in a month. Tencent, Meituan and Sony were among the biggest drags. Japanese gauges fell, while South Korean shares gained for a fourth day. Chinese stocks declined as traders parsed comments from the annual Central Economic Work Conference. Authorities vowed to raise China’s fiscal deficit target next year, and made “lifting consumption vigorously” and stimulating overall domestic demand their top priority.  Retail sales data due next week will help shed light on the state of China’s economy. The week ahead is also packed with monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve as well as central banks in Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines and Taiwan.

“The market may have some hope that the CEWC would give more details on consumption stimulus and property inventory clearance packages, but it turned out a bit disappointing,” said Jason Chan, senior investment strategist at Bank of East Asia. “Investors may need to wait for more fiscal policy rollout in the first quarter, also the ‘Two Sessions’ held in March.”

A gauge of world stocks is headed for the worst week in nearly a month. “The newsflow has been underwhelming,” Beata Manthey, head of European equity strategy at Citigroup Inc., said of announcements from China. “The markets want numbers. We didn’t get the numbers.” However, Chinese 10-year government bond yields slid below 1.8% for the first time in history, as authorities vowed to cut policy rates and banks’ reserve ratios.

In FX, the dollar was steady against a basket of currencies, reversing earlier gains as the euro rebounded, but was still on track for a second straight week of gains. The pound weakened after Britain’s economy unexpectedly contracted for a second straight month in October. The euro strengthened after the ECB sounded less dovish on rates than some expected after its policy announcement Thursday and forcing traders to pared policy-easing bets for next year; it moved even higher after French PM Macron named centrist Bayrou as the new French PM. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback as traders bet that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged next week, just as we warned.

In rates, treasuries are again cheaper across the curve, tracking bigger losses in European rates. The US yield curve steepening trend stalls following five straight increases in the 5s30s spread. US yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper across maturities with 10-year around 4.35%, highest since Nov. 25 outperforming German 10-year by ~2bp; major curve spreads are within 1bp of Thursday’s close. Bunds underperform their European peers, with German 10-year yields rising 3 bps to 2.23%. Gilts have been supported by soft GDP data from the UK while the surprise monthly economic contraction in October also weighs on the pound. IG issuance calendar empty so far. Gilts outperform after soft UK GDP data, which also weighed on the pound.

Graf of State Street expects more gains for the dollar, noting that the Fed’s easing cycle could prove shallow relative to Europe, where economic growth is weaker. Swap markets aren’t pricing a cut from the Bank of England at next week’s meeting, despite Friday’s weak data.

In commodities, oil prices advanced again, with WTI rising 0.8% to $70.60; Brent crude up 3.5% this week on the prospect for tighter US sanctions against Iran and Russia. Spot gold falls $12 to $2,668/oz.

US economic data calendar includes November import and export price indexes at 8:30am.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 6,075.75
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 518.27
• MXAP down 0.9% to 185.75
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 585.55
• Nikkei down 1.0% to 39,470.44
• Topix down 1.0% to 2,746.56
• Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 19,971.24
• Shanghai Composite down 2.0% to 3,391.88
• Sensex up 0.9% to 82,021.18
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 8,295.96
• Kospi up 0.5% to 2,494.46
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.22%
• Euro little changed at $1.0472
• Brent Futures up 0.4% to $73.69/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,672.66
• US Dollar Index up 0.13% to 107.09

Top Overnight News

• A top trade adviser to Donald Trump said that the new administration would not look “fondly” on any attempt by China to manipulate its currency, responding to a Reuters report that authorities there were considering allowing the yuan to weaken next year. Peter Navarro, Trump’s incoming senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, said the White House would not interfere with the Treasury Department’s biannual review looking in to whether foreign trade partners are manipulating their currencies. RTRS
• Trump considers options for preventing Iran from expanding its nuclear program, including the potential for airstrikes (Trump’s team feels Iran is uniquely weakened following events in Lebanon and Syria). WSJ  
• Trump explores merging bank regulators (FDIC, OCC, and Fed) in an attempt to eliminate duplication and promote efficiency, but any change would require Congressional approval and is likely to be controversial. WSJ
• Elon Musk renewed his feud with the SEC, revealing that the agency is investigating Neuralink and may take action over his investments in Twitter. He’s also seeking to turn SpaceX’s Starbase site in Texas into a new city and move the company’s headquarters there. BBG
• Broadcom reported EPS/EBITDA upside while overall sales fell slightly short (semiconductor revenue was above expectations) and the guide was fine (the sales outlook was inline while the EBITDA margin forecast is ~250bp higher). Shares spiked 15% during the earnings call as mgmt. delivered a bullish message on AI demand, VMWare accretion, and its relationship w/Apple (the company downplayed the Bloomberg report about it being at risk of displacement in the iPhone). BBG
• Insurance stocks are rallying in Europe following bullish 2025 guidance from both Munich Re and Swiss Re. RTRS
• UK economic data in Oct falls short of expectations, including GDP, industrial production, and manufacturing production (GDP contracted for the second consecutive month). BBG
• Germany’s Bundesbank slashed its growth forecast for the country, warning of another year of economic stagnation and cautioning that a trade war with the US would trigger recession. FT   
• Trafigura reported a 62% drop in profit as it took $1.1 billion in losses related to alleged employee misconduct in its Mongolian oil business. The company is restating several years of prior accounts and took additional hits on its zinc smelting and retail fuel businesses. BBG
• Microsoft (MSFT) filed for debt shelf; size undisclosed, via SEC filing. Separately, Microsoft introduces Phi-4, the company’s newest small language model specialising in complex reasoning
• Apple (AAPL) will begin assembling AirPods in India by early 2025, partnering with Foxconn (HNHPF): BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded lower across the board following a similar session on Wall Street after the hot US PPI, whilst sentiment in Asia-Pacific was somewhat hampered as participants digested the disappointing release from the Chinese Economic Work Conference. ASX 200 was pressured by the metals sectors, namely gold miners, after the recent slide in the yellow metal as the Buck  ramped up. Nikkei 225 pulled back further under 40,000, failed to benefit from a softer JPY and largely overlooked higher-than-expected optimism among large Japanese manufacturers from the BoJ’s Tankan Survey. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both softer as traders digested the release from the Chinese Economic Work  Conference, which overall seems like a disappointment as it offered little in terms of details whilst reaffirming the recent policy shift.

Top Asian News

• PBoC official Zou Lan says PBoC will deepen FX market reform next year, according to state TV. Will keep the Yuan ‘basically’ stable. Will respond vigorously to external shocks. Will increase treasury bond buying and selling operations. Will provide sound liquidity environment for government bond issuance.
• Trump Trade Advisor Navarro warned against currency manipulation after Reuters sources suggested China is mulling a weaker CNY.
• South Korean Finance Ministry said they will deploy more market stabilising measures if volatility heightens excessively, according to Reuters.
• BoJ Dec Tankan corporate price expectations survey: Japanese firms expect consumer prices to rise 2.4% a year from now (prev. +2.4%). 3-year expectation +2.3% (prev. +2.3%); 5-year expectation +2.2% (prev. +2.2%).
• Japan’s small firms are spending more of their profits on wages than their larger counterparts and may struggle to keep raising pay, casting doubt on whether wage gains are broad enough for BoJ to keep hiking rates, according to Reuters analysis. Policymakers are reportedly looking at whether small firms (which employ 70% of Japan’s workforce) can continue meeting pay demands.
• REUTERS POLL: BoJ to hold key interest rate at 0.25% in December, according to 58% of economists polled (vs 44% in Nov poll)
• Chinese President Xi is not planning to attend Trump’s inauguration but might send a senior official to represent him, according to WSJ sources.

European bourses began the European session on a modestly mixed footing, but soon after the cash open then lifted to session highs to display a positive picture in Europe. European sectors are mixed vs initially opening with a slight negative bias. Autos is towards the top of the pile, continuing to build on the gains seen in the prior session. Insurance follows closely behind, buoyed by gains in Swiss Re and Munich Re. Healthcare lags alongside losses in Basic Resources. US equity futures are entirely in the green, with clear outperformance in the tech-heavy NQ after Broadcom (+14%) shoots higher following a strong earnings report. Broadcom (AVGO) reported Q4 adj. EPS of 1.42 (exp. 1.39), and Q4 adj. net revenue of USD 14.05bln (exp. 14.1bln). Raised quarterly dividend +11% to 0.59/shr. Q4 semiconductor solutions revenue USD 8.23bln (exp. 8.05bln). Exec sees Q1 AI revenue growth of 65%, and expects momentum in AI connectivity to be as strong. +15% pre-market

Top European News

• ECB’s Villeroy says more rate cuts are to come. Notes that French bond spreads have moved away from Germany and closer to Italy.
• ECB’s Kazaks says the direction of interest rates is clearly down, the neutral rate is closer to 2% than 3%, significant reduction in rates is still necessary.
• Goldman Sachs (GS) cuts UK’s 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.2%.
• ECB’s Holzman says yesterday’s decision was “good”. If things go as expected, sees no danger for prices in cutting rates next year. Neutral rate is around 2%, rates could fall to this level.
• ECB’s Vasle says decisions will be taken meeting-by-meeting in a data-dependent fashion.
• BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey (Nov.): Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 3%, up from 2.7% in August 2024. Asked about expected inflation in the twelve months after that, respondents gave a median answer of 2.8%, up from 2.6% in August 2024. Asked about expectations of inflation in the longer term, say in five years’ time, respondents gave a median answer of 3.4%, up from 3.2% in August 2024.
• VCI says producer prices down 2.5% Y/Y, total sales – 2% Y/Y to EUR 221bln, industry sales will slacken due to higher producer pries and lo order backlogs in 2025.
• Bundesbank lowers its German growth outlook across the entire forecast horizon. Economy to stagnate in the “winter half-year” and then make a slow recovery across 2025. US President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs could lower growth by 1.3-1.4% through 2027. ECB’s Nagel says protectionism is the biggest area of uncertainty. Growth Forecasts: 2024: -0.2%; 2025: 0.2%; 2026: 0.8%.

FX

• DXY is essentially flat after spending most of the European morning in positive territory. DXY currently sits towards the bottom end of a 106.93-107.18 range. Today’s docket is light, with just US Import/Export Prices on deck.
• EUR is slightly firmer vs. the USD as the dust continues to settle on yesterday’s 25bps ECB rate cut. Sources followed the announcement, noting that the GC is prepared for a quarter-point rate cut at the next two meetings inflation stabilizes at the 2% target and economic growth remains sluggish. ECB speak this morning has continued to stress the inevitability of further easing in the coming months.
• JPY has continued to lose out to the USD throughout the European morning. JPY saw some fleeting support overnight in response to the higher-than-expected optimism among large Japanese manufacturers from the BoJ’s Tankan Survey. Recent JPY weakness has coincided with a pick-up in risk sentiment (CHF has also moved lower in tandem).
• GBP is on the backfoot and near the bottom of the G10 leaderboard following soft M/M GDP data for October which printed at -0.1% vs. Exp. +0.1%. That being said, PM has cut its Q4 Q/Q forecast to 0.1% from 0.3% (MPC expects 0.3%). Accordingly, Cable slipped below its 21DMA at 1.2670 and fell to a session low at 1.2620.
• Antipodeans are contained vs. the USD in quiet trade with upside for AUD capped by the soft performance for Chinese markets overnight as traders digested the release from the Chinese Economic Work Conference, which overall seems like a disappointment as it offered little in terms of details whilst reaffirming the recent policy shift.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1876 vs exp. 7.2745 (prev. 7.1854)
• RBI likely sold USD to support the INR, according to traders cited by Reuters.

Fixed Income

• USTs are steady overnight with specifics light and the docket ahead also limited as the countdown to the FOMC begins. Action in the European morning limited to a 110-09+ to 110-14 range. Yields little changed overall with no overt flattening/steepening bias thus far.
• Bunds began the morning in the red with EGBs trading in proximity to Thursday’s lows, after the ECB was judged to not be as dovish as some had hoped for. ECB speak this morning includes Muller saying the period of strong inflation is behind, Kazaks saying the direction is clearly down and the influential Villeroy remarking that there are more cuts to come. Since, the downside has extended slightly with Bunds at lows of 134.80 having faded below 135.00.
• OATs are down in tandem with the broader complex; once again, we are awaiting French President Macron’s announcement as to who the next PM will be.
• Initial leads for Gilts were bearish given the above but offset by a particularly soft set of UK growth data for October, with GDP missing across the board Services showing no growth while both Production and Construction fell in the period. Gilts in the red, though not as soft as EGBs are. Opened at a 94.89 session high before fading to a 94.66 trough.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are on a modestly firmer footing after trading mostly rangebound overnight, amid the lack of pertinent newsflow for the complex. On geopolitics, Ukraine said Russia had attacked several Ukrainian energy facilities. As for the Middle East, the WSJ reported that “President-elect Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes”. Brent’Feb 2025 currently sits around the USD 74/bbl mark.
• Gold is softer, potentially dented by the grind higher in risk sentiment seen in the European morning and continued DXY advances above 107.00.
• 3M LME Copper was flat for most the session but has just managed to recoup the USD 9.1k mark but remains markedly shy of Thursday’s USD 9.2k opening level and that session’s higher thereafter at USD 9.27k before the WTD USD 9.3k peak.
• Goldman Sachs said their base case is that Brent averages USD 76/bbl in 2025 given near offset between a modest 400k BPD surplus and a normalisation in currently low valuation.
• Moldovan Parliament declares state of emergency from Dec 16th amid the possible end of flow of Russian gas from Jan 1st, according to Reuters.
• Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities were more focussed on gas infrastructure this time, via Reuters citing sources.
• UBS expects copper prices to rise to the USD 10-11k MT range, expects demand to rise above 3% Y/Y in 2025. Sees copper market that is modestly in deficit of around 250,000 .

Geopolitics

• US President-elect Trump said “For the great privilege of accessing our markets, these foreign companies should hire our incredible American Workers, instead of laying them off, and sending those profits back to foreign countries”, via Truth Social.
• US President-elect Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes, according to WSJ.
• US Secretary of State Blinken says that in the last few weeks he has seen encouraging signs that a Gaza ceasefire is possible
• Israeli Defense Minister orders Israeli troops to prepare to remain on Mount Hermon during winter months, via Reuters citing a statement
• Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities were more focussed on gas infrastructure this time, via Reuters citing sources.
• US Sectary of State Blinken says that in the last few weeks he has seen encouraging signs that a Gaza ceasefire is possible.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Nov. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 08:30: Nov. Export Price Index YoY, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
• 08:30: Nov. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.3%, prior 0.8%
• 08:30: Nov. Import Price Index YoY, est. 1.0%, prior 0.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We had the London FIC and Macro Research Xmas Party last night and I hope none of my colleagues will be offended if I say it was a relatively tame but pleasant affair and very different to the ones of my early years in banking. However, it wasn’t without shock as after having known him for more than ten years I learnt for the first time that my colleague Luke represented Australia in his specialist discipline. I’ll keep you guessing what that was in and reveal the answer at the end.

Markets have lost a little poise over the last 24 hours, as the combination of underwhelming data and comments from ECB President Lagarde led to a cross-asset sell-off. That was most evident among sovereign bonds, and there was disappointment that the ECB didn’t take an even more dovish tone, not least after Lagarde said that inflation risks were “two-sided”. On top of that, the US PPI inflation reading surprised on the upside, even if core and the components that feed directly into core PCE were a touch softer. However, the year-on-year rate rose above 3% again for the first time since early 2023. So that led to a bit more doubt about how fast any rate cuts would be next year (remember DB think none after next week), and the S&P 500 also ended the day -0.54% lower. Although the S&P 500 is only -0.64% beneath its record high, yesterday was the ninth day in a row that more constituents fell than rose in the index, the longest such run since 2001, a fairly stunning stat. So ex-tech, the market is losing some momentum even if the aggregate moves are still small.

Starting with the ECB, the headline decision was much as expected, with a 25bp cut that took the deposit rate down to 3%. Moreover, the statement had some dovish shifts, as it dropped the language about keeping rates “sufficiently restrictive” to get inflation back to target. That was supported by the latest economic forecasts, which saw growth and inflation both downgraded over the years ahead. For instance, they now see growth in 2025 at just 1.1%, down two-tenths from last quarter, whilst the 2026 number was also revised a tenth lower to 1.4%. Meanwhile on inflation, they now expect headline inflation to fall to 2.1% in 2025, down a tenth from before, before falling to 1.9% in 2026.

But in spite of those seemingly dovish elements, European sovereign bonds saw a heavy sell-off yesterday. Indeed, yields on 10yr bunds (+7.8bps), OATs (+9.8bps) and BTPs (+15.9bps) all moved sharply higher. That sell-off began as Lagarde’s Q&A comments did little to follow through on the dovish points in the statement or the forecasts, and avoided getting drawn on the size and speed of future cuts. So while the direction of travel towards lower rates is clear, these comments cast doubt on how aggressively the ECB would actually cut rates next year. That said, our European economists see the latest ECB signal as consistent with maximal optionality and continue to see the risk of larger 50bp cuts, although the bar for such a move at the next meeting in January feels high. Given their expectation of below-trend growth and below-target inflation, our economists maintain a baseline of a below-neutral 1.50% terminal rate by end-2025. See their full reaction piece here.

Whilst the ECB provided the main attention yesterday, there were a couple of US data prints that also disappointed investors. In particular, the PPI reading for November came in on the upside, which added to the sense that inflation was still lingering in a zone that would make it difficult to cut rates much further. For instance, the monthly headline PPI was running at +0.4% (vs. +0.2% expected), and the previous month’s reading was revised up a tenth to +0.3%. In turn, that pushed the year-on-year reading up to +3.0% (vs. +2.6% expected). However, the upside PPI surprise was in part due to one-offs (notably egg prices of all things), and with some respite from categories that feed into PCE inflation (which the Fed targets). These were on the weaker side alongside core PPI which printed at +0.1% MoM, below the +0.2% expected. So on paper, that still gives the Fed space to cut rates at next week’s meeting, even if the moves beyond that are in more doubt. In my opinion, there’s enough concern on inflation not to cut next week, but the Fed doesn’t like to provide big surprises to markets this close to the event, and with investors now pricing a 96% chance of a cut, the Fed would have to act astonishingly out of character to not do so.

The other release of potential concern were the weekly jobless claims, which saw initial claims at 242k over the week ending December 7 (vs. 220k expected), above every economist’s expectation on Bloomberg. Continuing claims for the previous week also surprised to the upside (1886k vs 1877k expected), though data may have been distorted by seasonal factors post-Thanksgiving. And while Treasuries initially rallied following the US data, the bond sell-off that has dominated so far this week resumed as the day wore on. By the close, 2yr (+3.9bps) and 10yr yields (+5.7bps) both posted a fourth consecutive increase to 4.19% and 4.33%, respectively. This leaves 10yr yields on course for their biggest weekly rise since early October (+17.5bps so far).

For equities it was also an underwhelming session yesterday. This was most visible in the US, where the S&P 500 was down -0.54%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell by a larger -1.38%. The tech megacaps also suffered from the downbeat mood, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.71%) reversing some of its +3.09% gain the previous day. As mentioned at the top, the number of decliners outpaced the advancers for a ninth consecutive session. Meanwhile in Europe, the losses were more marginal with the STOXX 600 down -0.14% and several indices posting modest gains, as the DAX (+0.13%) just about moved up to a new record.

Elsewhere in Europe, Swiss bonds outperformed after the Swiss National Bank delivered a 50bp rate cut yesterday. That came as something of a surprise, as both market pricing and the consensus of economists had leant towards a 25bp move as more likely. So there was a decent market reaction, which left the country’s 10yr yields down -0.7bps on the day, in contrast to the sizeable moves higher across the rest of Europe. In addition, the Swiss franc weakened by -0.37% against the US Dollar.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are mostly sliding after the readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) didn’t have much new policy details. That’s meant Chinese equities are underperforming, with the CSI 300 (-1.67%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.36%) both losing ground, and the Hang Seng is also down -1.66%. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.91%) is also trading noticeably lower, along with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-0.41%). The one exception to this pattern is the KOSPI (+0.43%), and looking forward, US equity futures are pointing to a modest recovery, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.07%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.28%) trading higher.

There was also a significant milestone in Chinese bond markets, as the 10yr government bond yield fell beneath 1.8% for the first time ever. That continues the downward momentum in Chinese yields over recent months, and the country’s 30yr yields are already trading beneath Japan’s 30yr yields.

In terms of data overnight, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan report showed that sentiment among the biggest Japanese manufacturers moved up to 14 in Q4, which was the highest reading since Q1 2022. However, the index for large non-manufacturers ticked down a point from last quarter to 33. In the meantime, the Japanese yen (-0.23%) is on track to weaken for a fifth consecutive session, and is currently trading at 152.97 against the dollar, its weakest since November 26.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP for October and Euro Area industrial production for October. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Holzmann and Centeno.

Goldman analysts remain “bullish on commercial aerospace into 2025,” forecasting a replacement wave of aging commercial jet fleets by the end of the decade. This bullish view comes as Boeing navigates a turnaround period following challenges that include the twin Max jet crashes, mid-air incidents, production safety vulnerabilities, a seven-week factory strike, and mounting financial pressures. Encouragingly, production at Boeing’s Renton factory in Seattle has restarted, marking a positive step forward for the company.

Analysts Noah Poponak and Anthony Valentini cited the latest global air travel data, which shows a healthy recovery in flights to their pre-pandemic level. 

Boeing and Airbus have seen a strong aircraft order cycle and years of backlogs. 

“Air travel demand has largely recovered, bringing with it a renewed wave of aircraft demand thanks to both capacity and replacement needs. Boeing and Airbus are supplying aircraft well below this demand as the supply chain continues to experience delays, materials shortages, and other issues,” the analyst said, adding, “Boeing production has been curtailed by product quality improvements following the Alaska Airlines MAX incident at the beginning of 2024, and was further delayed by the IAM Union workers’ strike in September. We think the supply chain will continue to normalize throughout 2025.” 

Poponak modeled aircraft deliveries recovering to 2018 levels in 2026. He expects “global air travel exceeds pre-pandemic in 2025, and that higher retirement demand will support elevated new aircraft orders.” 

“Aerospace is a long-cycle industry, and we believe that 2025 will be another early year in a multiple-year recovery ahead,” he said. 

Aircraft retirements have remained subdued since 2021, mostly because of low delivery volumes and production delays at Airbus and Boeing. 

What has piqued our interest is whether Boeing’s turnaround plan can be effectively implemented and production restarted smoothly in Renton. If successful, the company could position itself for a new era ahead of a replacement wave of commercial jet fleets expected to ramp up in the coming years. 

In markets, Boeing shares have been clobbered over the years, trading in a tight range between $100 and $250. 

Here’s why the analysts are bullish on Boeing:

Boeing has a new CEO, IAM union workers have returned to work following a 50+ day strike, and the company raised $21bn of new equity capital, resolving near-term liquidity and credit rating concerns as the company heads into 2025. Boeing still needs to solve a number of challenges going forward, but we think much of that is priced into the stock at this point. We view Defense leadership changes and the exploration of non-core asset sales as positive steps in Boeing’s efforts to normalize the earnings power of those businesses. We think Boeing can produce ~38 MAX and ~8 787 / month by 3Q25, at which point we expect the company to begin generating positive free cash.

The analysts listed other “Buy” recommendations within the aviation industry:

• Woodward – Buy, on the CL: WWD’s significant content gains on next generation narrowbody aircraft – thanks largely to content gains on the LEAP and GTF engines – will create an installed base that should drive substantial aftermarket revenues to the company over time. The company’s Industrial business has pieces that can create quarterly volatility, but it also has a potential much larger secular growth business in power generation, while core margins in the segment are moving higher.

• GE Aerospace – Buy: We expect GE’s LEAP engine to continue driving meaningful share gains, and think it is likely that engine shop visit and aftermarket growth will remain strong for several years. GE is still dealing with supply chain issues, which at times forces it to rationalize where it sends limited components, but the company remains focused on increasing commercial engine output. This should drive even higher levels of aftermarket activity once those engines become part of the installed base. We think margins likely have upside from here as GE passes through pricing, particularly on LEAP, and as LEAP aftermarket matures, allowing the company to return excess cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

• Howmet – Buy: We think HWM’s initial FY25 revenue outlook (+7.5%) is conservative as the company continues to benefit from increased spares volumes and pricing given industry-wide engine time on wing issues and low OEM production rates. The stock has moved higher and has a relatively high bar, but we think the multiple re-rating is warranted given the potential for this business to outgrow its end market through pricing and share gains, as well as its history of shareholder-friendly capital deployment.

• CAE – Buy: CAE has a high-quality aerospace business that drives recurring revenues, above end-market growth, and strong margins thanks to its large share of the simulation and training market. The defense business is showing improvement as CAE works through challenged contracts and books higher quality revenues, and we think the stock is attractive given CAE’s discounted valuation.

• Ducommun – Buy: As OEMs ramp production to meet strong demand, we expect DCO to benefit from its exposure to aerospace OEs. DCO is also growing its aerospace aftermarket exposure and share in defense end-markets, leveraging both price and cost to expand margins. We think the business can drive substantial earnings growth over time and currently trades at a discount to peers.

• TransDigm – Buy: As an M&A compounder with high aftermarket exposure, TransDigm operates one of the best business models across our coverage, and we think it should remain a core holding in the aerospace supply chain. The company has an extensive track record of operating performance, margin expansion, and efficient capital deployment, which we expect to continue in spite of renewed scrutiny around TDG’s sale of spare parts to the DoD and its pricing model.

• HEICO – Buy: Heico is well-positioned within the aerospace supply chain as one of the more unique business models we cover. The Wencor integration is progressing well (product portfolio combinations, cross-selling, resource sharing), and significantly expands HEI’s presence in aftermarket PMA. Going forward, we think HEI has the ability to grow share, pricing, and compound cash flow over the long-term as it executes on strategic M&A.

• Textron – Buy: The business jet end market remains structurally healthy, and the company expects Aviation operations to normalize by the start of 2025, which should benefit from slipped 4Q aircraft deliveries. Bell continues to be a bright spot for the company, which has experienced strong helicopter deliveries and solid FLRRA momentum, which we expect to continue.

• Bombardier – Buy: With nearly $15bn in backlog, BBD has a multi-year runway for aircraft delivery and free cash growth. The tight supply / demand dynamic in the business jet market favors the OEs who can pass on price, and BBD’s recurring high-margin services business continues to grow. At only ~8X our 2026 FCF estimates, we think BBD is attractive at current levels.

• Embraer – Buy: Embraer has a solid position in the regional jet market, business jet supply / demand remains tight, and the company has growth ahead in its defense business from the KC-390. The company is improving its margins and cash flow as management drives operating performance, which we expect to continue.

Forward-looking valuations across aerospace do not appear ‘bubbly’ like other parts of the market. 

The forecasted wave of replacement jet demand could offer Boeing a much-needed boost, lifting it out of its multi-year bear market in the years ahead. Keep in mind that aerospace is a long cycle.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is heading the betting to become the next British Prime Minister, according to Labrokes’ latest political betting odds.

The odds on Farage have shortened to 5/2, while new Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch is second favourite with odds of 3/1.

And for the first time, Nigel Farage now heads the betting to become next Prime Minister.https://t.co/8K5c9IoM2i https://t.co/JVHbQnPoq8 pic.twitter.com/IhRMhLqPJo

— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) December 10, 2024

The odds on Farage have shortened following a Find Out Now poll found that Reform UK has 24 per cent electorate support, only two-points behind the Tories and one-point ahead of Labour.

Since coming to government, far left Labour’s popularity has nosedived in the wake of a raft of broken campaign promises and downright horrendous policies including imprisoning people for social media posts.

Farage has also just received a massive injection of investment from billionaire property developer, Nick Candy, who vowed to “raise Reform more money than any political party in the UK has ever raised.”

“Nigel will be the next PM,” Candy added, urging “I wouldn’t be doing this if I wasn’t 100 per cent certain of that.”

Reform UK is building a winning team to change British politics forever. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/nOa7BIup05

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) December 10, 2024

Several former Conservative Party MPs have also recently defected to Reform.

I welcome former Conservative MP Aidan Burley to Reform UK at our Christmas lunch today.

Death by a thousand defections. pic.twitter.com/mJRjFFMKnM

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) December 10, 2024

Reform revived a sizeable chunk of votes, over four million, in the UK general election in July but only secured five parliamentary seats owing to the first past the post system.

One in seven people voted Reform, yet the party ended up with 67 fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats, who received around two percent fewer votes.

In recent days, there have also been rumours that Elon Musk is interested in boosting Reform UK with a gargantuan cash injection.

Musk has denied the rumours but got people talking again when he replied to the above tweet by Farage:

The first step is the English County Council elections on May 1st 2025. Britain Needs Reform.

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) December 10, 2024

Candy has also claimed that he and Musk are “messaging” each other about Reform UK and Farage, with Candy noting  “If Elon wants to give it… then of course Reform would be very interested in that.”

Farage himself commented “Elon Musk is very supportive of what Reform is trying to do, supportive of me personally. And we’ve got the connections with him, and Nick’s got good connections with him as well.”

“He’s giving us political support,” Farage continued, clarifying that “We have, at this stage, neither solicited or been offered donations,” given that it is illegal for non-UK citizens to donate to MPs.

Musk has repeatedly criticised British Prime Minister Kier Starmer for going “full Stalin” and arresting and even jailing people for posting memes.

*  *  *

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Countries worldwide have been increasingly imposing tariffs on China’s tech industry to address concerns over economic dependence, national security, and market fairness.

These actions reflect a broader trend of escalating trade measures affecting the global tech landscape.

This chart, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, shows China-specific tariffs imposed by countries on products from China’s tech sector. This does not include other general tariffs which may also apply to Chinese products.

The data comes from Rest of World and is updated as of November 2024.

China’s EV Sector Under Heavy Tariffs

Below, we show tariffs various countries and regions have imposed on China’s tech industry.

Tariffs have gained renewed focus ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s second term, and his pro-tariff agenda.

The Biden administration hasn’t shied away from trade measures against China either. In May 2024, the U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles from 25% to 100%–as well as several other products–citing concerns over manufacturing overcapacity and its impact on global markets.

Four countries or regions, including the U.S., have specific tariffs targeting China’s electric vehicle industry, which is quickly skyrocketing in market share with exports surging 13,300% to $42 billion in 2023. China currently accounts for nearly 70% of global EV production.

China’s EV industry success is driven by comprehensive government support, including manufacturer subsidies, a massive domestic market, and vertical integration in the supply chain.

The EU’s recent tariff action on Chinese electric vehicles was prompted by the industry’s rapid growth, with its market share rising from 3.9% to 25% between 2020 and 2023, fueling concerns about the future of European automotive jobs and industry sustainability.

To learn more about tariffs against China, check out this graphic that visualizes the tariff hikes that the Biden administration enacted this year.