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Ukraine Sent Drones & Operators To HTS Before Offensive That Ousted Assad, WaPo Confirms

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Ukraine Sent Drones & Operators To HTS Before Offensive That Ousted Assad, WaPo Confirms

While it had been reported in independent as well as Russian media previously, this week The Washington Post offered further confirmation that Ukrainian intelligence had provided Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) with direct drone support in the weeks leading up to the shock offensive which led to the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

“Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago,” wrote Washington Post columnist David Ignatius this week.

Via Ukrinform

Ukrainian officials had previously openly boasted that they would assist in hitting Russian assets and bases in Syria, in order to bog its forces down there and distract the top Russian command from the Ukrainian front lines.

Small drone warfare has been said by many analysts to be a key component further demoralizing Syrian Army positions after Assad’s military and state institutions had been essentially hollowed out after years of grinding war and crippling Western sanctions.

The Washington Post wrote:

The aid from Kyiv played only a modest role in overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western intelligence sources believe. But it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to strike covertly at Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself.

Ukraine’s covert assistance program in Syria has been an open secret, though senior Biden administration officials said repeatedly in answer to my questions that they weren’t aware of it. Ukraine’s motivation is obvious: Facing a Russian onslaught inside their country, Ukrainian intelligence has looked for other fronts where it can bloody Russia’s nose and undermine its clients.

Russia has acknowledged and vehemently condemned this, after Assad fled to Moscow where he and his family were given asylum.

“Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are present… training HTS fighters for combat operations,” Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia told a UN audience soon after the HTS offensive started and took Aleppo.

And more from WaPo on Ukraine entering a ‘dirty war’ in Syria:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had made a similar claim in September about “Ukrainian intelligence emissaries” in Idlib. He claimed they were conducting “dirty operations,” according to the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan, which asserted that Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the GUR, had been in touch personally with HTS.

Not only does this mean the Zelensky government was directly supporting a US-designated terror organization, but clearly such a clandestine operation would have involved some degree of NATO coordination. 

While it’s very clear NATO member Turkey has been propping up both HTS and the “Syrian National Army” (SNA), the latter primarily in Aleppo and north of it, it’s a bit of an open question the degree to which Western intelligence was directly guiding the HTS offensive. Certainly HTS has had NATO assistance in the recent past, at the very least. For example a Western intelligence staffed ‘operations room’ in southern Turkey helped the Islamist coalition take Idlib from Assad forces in the first place, in 2015.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 11:20

‘USA’ Chants Roar As Trump Rings NYSE Bell After Being Named TIME ‘Person Of The Year’

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‘USA’ Chants Roar As Trump Rings NYSE Bell After Being Named TIME ‘Person Of The Year’

Donald Trump has been crowned TIME magazine’s Person of the Year after reclaiming the presidency, marking him as only the second U.S. president in history to serve non-consecutive terms. The announcement came on Thursday, placing Trump at the pinnacle of a contentious list of global influencers.

“Trump’s political rebirth is unparalleled in American history,” TIME wrote in an announcement, after speaking with the President-elect ahead of the announcement.

Trump dubbed his campaign “72 Days of Fury” after a term that Trump himself coined. This win sets Trump apart as a political figure of singular historical significance, having first held the title in 2016 when he initially seized the presidency from Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s political rebirth is unparalleled in American history. His first term ended in disgrace, with his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results culminating in the attack on the U.S. Capitol. He was shunned by most party officials when he announced his candidacy in late 2022 amid multiple criminal investigations. Little more than a year later, Trump cleared the Republican field, clinching one of the fastest contested presidential primaries in history. -TIME

The competition for this year’s title was fierce, with Trump edging out other high-profile names such as Vice President Kamala Harris, his tech mogul supporter Elon Musk, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Catherine, Princess of Wales. Notably, Musk was the magazine’s pick back in 2021.

Reflecting on his tumultuous path to victory, Trump’s year included overcoming significant challenges: a stark clearing of the GOP field, a conviction in a New York courtroom, and surviving not one, but two assassination attempts.

The campaign saw surprising alliances, including consolidations of support from unexpected quarters such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Elon Musk, alongside a dramatic shift in the Democratic nomination.

According to TIME, Trump’s win gave him the “political capital to address the sources of American discontent at home and abroad” Trump himself suggested a bold agenda, including plans to pardon Jan. 6 political prisoners.

“It’s going to start in the first hour … maybe the first nine minutes,” Trump told the outlet.

The Person of the Year title, a tradition since 1927, is not necessarily a mark of honor but rather a recognition of influence. TIME has historically selected presidents during their election victories, with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris jointly receiving the nod in 2020, and other repeat honorees including Barack Obama and George W. Bush.

Trump’s victory lap included ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan, where chants of “USA’ broke out…

Trump is the first president to ring the bell since Ronald Reagan.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 11:00

Janet Yellen “Sorry” After Presiding Over $15 Trillion Increase In US Debt

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Janet Yellen “Sorry” After Presiding Over $15 Trillion Increase In US Debt

Something funny happened in late November.

Outgoing Treasury Secretary, and former Fed chair and vice chair, Janet Yellen said that she spoke with Donald Trump’s nominee to be her successor, Scott Bessent, after he was selected for the job. During a Tuesday event organized by the WSJ, Yellen said that in a call before Thanksgiving, she told Bessent, a veteran hedge-fund manager, about the breadth of the job and strength of the department’s staff.

Yellen, who had never worked one day in the private sector let alone a hedge fund where you are only as good as your last trade and only successful if you outsmart most of your peers, reiterated previous warnings against encroaching on Federal Reserve independence and on broad tariff hikes, while expressing regrets on the fiscal situation.

“What research has shown and this is certainly what I see from my own experience is that countries perform better — they have not only inflation performance — but real performance in terms of job creation and growth is also stronger when a central bank is left to use its best judgment without political influence,” Yellen said, apropos of nothing as the Fed is and always has been a political entity to be used and abused by whoever is in power. Case in point: Yellen, like her predecessor Bernanke, kept rates too low for too long so that her Democratic overlords could enjoy a period of relative tranquility (while also spawning what will soon be the biggest financial crisis in US history).

None of that was funny, however. What was is that Yellen also expressed regret over failing to make more progress in narrowing the fiscal deficit during her tenure.

“I am concerned about fiscal sustainability and I am sorry that we haven’t made more progress,” she said adding that “I believe that the deficit needs to be brought down especially now that we’re in an environment of higher interest rates.”

This is really funny for two reasons.

First, it was under Yellen’s watch that the US experienced its biggest debt increase in history. As shown below, Yellen was Fed chair from Oct 2010 until Feb 2014, and then Fed Chair from Feb 2014 until Feb 2018, a period during which she intentionally kept rates at zero for almost the entire duration of her “apolitical” tenure. We say “apolitical” because in January 2021 the mask came off, and Yellen was picked for her political ideology to serve as Biden’s top debt printing Democrat by taking control of the US Department of Treasury, where on more than one occasion she intentionally manipulated US debt issuance to boost risk assets at the expense of a harrowing debt crisis that looms under Trump’s administration as trillions in debt now have to be rolled over at a much higher rate. But more to the point, under Yellen total US debt increased by $6.8 trillion while she was Fed Chair/vice-Chair and then another $8.4 trillion while she has been Biden’s Treasury Secretary.

In other words, Yellen has personally presided over a gargantuan $15.2 trillion increase in US debt, or about 42% of all US debt ever issued! No one other government official can make even a remotely similar claim.

So yes, the world certainly has every reason to be “concerned about fiscal sustainability” but the last person allowed to seek accountability is Yellen, who is the one person in the US most directly complicit in making US fiscal sustainability a huge joke. And no, saying she is “sorry” just won’t cut it.

The second reason why Yellen’s words are a laughable grotesque, is that as we showed earlier, in its final days, the Biden administration – which is best known for spending trillions to buy votes in the US (and inexplicably, in the Ukraine) – has decided to go out with a bang, and at a time when government spending is hitting new record high month after month, even as US tax revenue has flatlined for the past five years…

… the US just start its latest fiscal year with the biggest two-month increase in the budget deficit on record.

Meanwhile, US interest expense is now $1.2 trillion, the second largest government outlay surpassing defense and health spending, and is just one debt crisis and/or interest rate spike away from exceeding Social Security spending as the largest government outlay for the world’s most indebted government.

So yes, Janet, we too are “sorry”…  sorry that under your various official tenures the US took irrevocable steps to losing the world’s reserve currency (don’t believe us, just as gold and bitcoin), and sorry that the US is just a few months away from the biggest financial crisis in history. Of course, we also realize that at 78 your forecast that there will be “no major crisis in your lifetime” is – one way or another – likely spot on. If only that was also true for the rest of us.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 09:45

US Appeals Court Vacates Nasdaq Board Diversity Rule

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US Appeals Court Vacates Nasdaq Board Diversity Rule

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A U.S. appeals court on Dec. 11 struck down a Nasdaq rule requiring companies listed on the stock exchange to have “diverse representation” on their boards, finding the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acted unlawfully in approving the policy.

The rule was introduced by the SEC and Nasdaq as part of efforts to boost racial and gender diversity in corporations. They say it is a disclosure requirement that provides standardized information on board diversity.

In a 9–8 ruling, the New Orleans-based Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals found the rule should not have been signed off by the SEC in August 2021 because the regulator lacked legal authority.

“SEC has intruded into territory far outside its ordinary domain,” U.S. Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham wrote for the majority.

According to the rule, companies listed on the exchange must have at least two “diverse board members,” including “at least one director who self-identifies as a female,” and at least one who “self-identifies as Black or African American, Hispanic or Latinx, Asian, Native American or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, two or more races or ethnicities, or as LGBTQ+.”

Companies that do not have at least two such members on their board of directors must explain why they do not. They must also disclose annually how board members identify in those categories.

The National Center for Public Policy Research and the Alliance for Fair Board Recruitment, a group formed by conservative legal activist Edward Blum, filed a lawsuit against the rule in August 2021.

They argued the rule amounted to an attempt to coerce companies into satisfying a “diversity quota,” was unconstitutional, and violated the Exchange Act, the Administrative Procedure Act, and free speech.

“Nasdaq’s discriminate-or-explain command is unlawful because it fails to advance any legitimate exchange purpose,” the plaintiffs wrote in their lawsuit.

The rule, plaintiffs said, is designed to promote board diversity as opposed to preventing fraud or further any other legitimate purpose under the Exchange Act.

“Even if Nasdaq’s diversity rule were legally permissible and supported by substantial evidence (and it is not), it is not permissible under the U.S. Constitution,” they argued.

Plaintiffs pointed to the U.S. Constitution’s Fifth Amendment, which prohibits federal discrimination based on sex, race, or sexual orientation except in very narrow circumstances.

“To approve the proposed discrimination, the SEC would have to conclude that Nasdaq’s rule survives the exacting scrutiny needed to justify the discriminatory treatment of individuals based on their sex, race, or sexual orientation,” they wrote.

A three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit in October 2023 struck down the lawsuits challenging the Nasdaq rule, saying the SEC acted within its authority. However, the appeals court opted to have all of its judges reconsider the matter.

In Wednesday’s ruling, Oldham said the SEC’s rule was “far removed” from the 1934 Securities Exchange Act, which governs stock trading and dictates that stock exchange rules approved by the regulator must promote “just and equitable principles of trade.”

“We are not aware of any established rule or custom of the securities trade that saddles companies with an obligation to explain why their boards of directors do not have as much racial, gender, or sexual orientation diversity as Nasdaq would prefer,” Oldham wrote.

Eight judges dissented, including U.S. Circuit Judge Stephen Higginson, who stated that the SEC’s limited role in reviewing Nasdaq’s proposed rules precluded it from making a different decision.

In a statement to multiple media outlets after the ruling, a Nasdaq spokesperson said, “We maintain that the rule simplified and standardized disclosure requirements to the benefit of both corporates and investors.”

Separately, Mark Chenoweth, president of the New Civil Liberties Alliance, which represented the National Center for Public Policy Research, said the court’s ruling “should chasten SEC to stick to its knitting and stop trying to abuse its market-regulating power.”

The Epoch Times contacted Nasdaq for further comment but received no reply by publication time.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 09:25

Producer Price Inflation Comes In ‘Red Hot’ In November

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Producer Price Inflation Comes In ‘Red Hot’ In November

Following yesterday’s reported re-ignition in consumer price inflation (despite people seemingly being exuberant that it was ‘as expected’ – we don’t remember The Fed’s mandate being stable prices in line with consensus expectations?), this morning’s producer prices were expected to accelerate further also to +2.6% YoY from +2.4% YoY.

But it didn’t…

Headline PPI surged 0.4% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) – biggest MoM jump since June – which lifted the YoY rise in producer prices to +3.0% – far above expectations and the highest since Feb 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Headline PPI’s big jump was driven by food costs (rising at their fastest since Nov 2022)…

Source: Bloomberg

A quarter of the November rise in prices for final demand goods is attributable to a 54.6-percent jump in the index for chicken eggs.

Prices for fresh and dry vegetables, fresh fruits and melons, processed poultry, non-electronic cigarettes, and residential electric power also increased. In contrast, the index for oilseeds declined 4.7 percent. Prices for diesel fuel and for primary basic organic chemicals also decreased.

Services costs are accelerating fast on a YoY basis and Energy’s deflationary pressure is evaporating rapidly…

Source: Bloomberg

Not only was much of the PPI report better than expected, the underlying components were too.

The percentage of those rising on an annual basis is at 80%.

As the chart shows, this is typically consistent with PPI remaining elevated.

Spot the difference (food costs just hit a new record high)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core PPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2% MoM as expected but the YoY core PPI jumped dramatically to +3.4% YoY – also the hottest since Feb 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Given the resurgence in money supply, it should not be a surprise that PPI (and CPI) are on the rise again…

Source: Bloomberg

Does that look like an inflationary backdrop that needs a rate-cut next week?

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 09:15

Trump Named TIME Person Of The Year In Stunning Political Comeback

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Trump Named TIME Person Of The Year In Stunning Political Comeback

Donald Trump has been crowned TIME magazine’s Person of the Year after reclaiming the presidency, marking him as only the second U.S. president in history to serve non-consecutive terms. The announcement came on Thursday, placing Trump at the pinnacle of a contentious list of global influencers.

“Trump’s political rebirth is unparalleled in American history,” TIME wrote in an announcement, after speaking with the President-elect ahead of the announcement.

Trump dubbed his campaign “72 Days of Fury” after a term that Trump himself coined. This win sets Trump apart as a political figure of singular historical significance, having first held the title in 2016 when he initially seized the presidency from Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s political rebirth is unparalleled in American history. His first term ended in disgrace, with his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results culminating in the attack on the U.S. Capitol. He was shunned by most party officials when he announced his candidacy in late 2022 amid multiple criminal investigations. Little more than a year later, Trump cleared the Republican field, clinching one of the fastest contested presidential primaries in history. -TIME

The competition for this year’s title was fierce, with Trump edging out other high-profile names such as Vice President Kamala Harris, his tech mogul supporter Elon Musk, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Catherine, Princess of Wales. Notably, Musk was the magazine’s pick back in 2021.

Trump’s victory lap will include ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan.

Reflecting on his tumultuous path to victory, Trump’s year included overcoming significant challenges: a stark clearing of the GOP field, a conviction in a New York courtroom, and surviving not one, but two assassination attempts. The campaign saw surprising alliances, including consolidations of support from unexpected quarters such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Elon Musk, alongside a dramatic shift in the Democratic nomination.

According to TIME, Trump’s win gave him the “political capital to address the sources of American discontent at home and abroad” Trump himself suggested a bold agenda, including plans to pardon Jan. 6 political prisoners.

“It’s going to start in the first hour … maybe the first nine minutes,” Trump told the outlet.

The Person of the Year title, a tradition since 1927, is not necessarily a mark of honor but rather a recognition of influence. TIME has historically selected presidents during their election victories, with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris jointly receiving the nod in 2020, and other repeat honorees including Barack Obama and George W. Bush.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 09:10

Supreme Court Rules 9–0 Federal Judges Cannot Second-Guess Visa Revocations

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Supreme Court Rules 9–0 Federal Judges Cannot Second-Guess Visa Revocations

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously on Dec. 10 that federal courts may not review the federal government’s decision to revoke an immigration visa.

The court’s 9–0 opinion in Bouarfa v. Mayorkas was written by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. The respondent is U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Dec. 2, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

In the case, the DHS revoked a Palestinian man’s visa after it found he previously attempted to pass off another one of his marriages as legitimate to obtain permanent resident status. Because the government determined he engaged in fraud before, the current marriage was deemed fraudulent, and his visa, which had been approved, was canceled.

The petitioner, Amina Bouarfa, a U.S. citizen, married noncitizen Ala’a Hamayel. They produced three children, all of whom are U.S. citizens, according to Bouarfa’s petition to the Supreme Court.

Around three years after they married, Bouarfa filed an immigration petition to classify her husband as an immediate relative, which would make him eligible for adjustment to permanent resident status.

In 2015, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), an agency of the DHS, approved the wife’s petition, but in 2017 it moved to revoke its approval, citing evidence Hamayel’s first marriage was fraudulent. The agency said if it had known of the sham marriage, it would not have granted the petition.

Bouarfa disputed the decision the same year and the Board of Immigration Appeals ruled against her in 2021, finding federal law barred approval of the petition.

In January 2022, Bouarfa sued in a federal district court in Florida, requesting a review of the board’s decision under the Administrative Procedure Act, which governs how government agencies create and enforce rules. The court dismissed the case, finding it lacked authority to hear it.

A panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit affirmed, holding that federal law precludes judicial review of the revocation of a visa and that revocations are “discretionary—no matter the basis for revocation.”

In the Supreme Court’s ruling, Jackson wrote that the decision to revoke involved “a quintessential grant of discretion” to DHS that judges are unable to review.

Jackson wrote that the law provides that the DHS secretary “may, at any time, for what he deems to be good and sufficient cause, revoke the approval of any [visa] petition.”

Despite this, Bouarfa still has options, as the government acknowledges. “Nothing prohibits a citizen from filing another petition on behalf of the same relative,” the justice wrote, adding that nothing in the law requires the secretary to uphold the sham marriage determination.

In fact, Bouarfa has already re-filed and if her petition is turned down again because of the sham marriage finding, she may seek judicial review, Jackson added.

The Supreme Court affirmed the ruling of the 11th Circuit.

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to the U.S. Department of Justice, which represents the DHS, and Bouarfa’s attorney, Samir Ibrahim Deger-Sen of Latham and Watkins in New York City. No replies were received by publication time.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 09:00

Citrus Crisis: Florida’s Orange Juice Production Slides To Lowest Level Since 1930

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Citrus Crisis: Florida’s Orange Juice Production Slides To Lowest Level Since 1930

The US Department of Agriculture has released an alarming new forecast for Florida’s citrus industry.

The latest projection indicates orange production for the current season will total around 12 million boxes—the lowest since 1930—according to Bloomberg, citing the new USDA report.

Source: Bloomberg

A devastating hurricane this fall has compounded the damage already inflicted by citrus greening disease, a bacterial infection that has decimated groves over the past decade.

Orange juice futures have surged to $5 per pound, a staggering 433% increase from the Covid-era lows of around $1 per pound. Worsening supply constraints could squeeze prices even higher.

Florida’s orange production and citrus exports face an uncertain future as the industry struggles to recover from the dual blows of severe weather and disease.

More from Bloomberg:

The cut reflects an even dimmer situation for Florida’s citrus industry, which had been expected to produce fewer oranges even before Hurricane Milton tore through groves in mid-October. Growers have been combating a deadly citrus disease called greening that has decimated orange production, while also trying to recover from hurricanes Ian and Irma in 2022 and 2017.

More than 300,000 acres of citrus lands were affected by Hurricane Milton, according to preliminary estimates in October by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

Separate from the report, USDA data indicates US orange juice cold storage levels were at their lowest point at the end of October since the early 1970s.

In mid-October, we reported how top producer Brazil squeezed international orange juice markets following a devastating drought and widespread crop disease.

On Tuesday…

Food inflation remains stubbornly high.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 05:45

Political Turmoil In France Could Worsen Europe’s Energy Problems

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Political Turmoil In France Could Worsen Europe’s Energy Problems

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • Political instability in France, Europe’s top electricity exporter, raises concerns about reduced power exports and exacerbates the energy crisis.

  • Rising natural gas prices and depleting storage threaten European industry competitiveness this winter, potentially leading to production cuts.

  • Europe’s energy woes highlight the continent’s vulnerability in the global energy market, particularly with the looming end of Russian gas supplies.

Europe’s natural gas and power prices are rallying again as the proper heating season begins, adding to concerns that a new energy crisis is brewing.

The political turmoil in the top European electricity exporter and second-largest economy, France, certainly is not helping.

A prolonged government crisis after the ousting of Prime Minister Michel Barnier last week could result in reduced electricity exports from France to its interconnected markets, including Germany and Italy, Reuters market analyst Gavin Maguire argues.

This would be another layer of energy shock for European markets, which have been grappling with rising electricity and natural gas prices in recent weeks.

The rising budget deficit and the possibility of a no budget for 2025 could lead to politicians in France looking to curb the high French electricity exports, according to Reuters’s Maguire.

Considering that France is Europe’s top exporter of electricity, this would have repercussions on the power markets and prices across Europe.

With the fall of the government, any improvement of France’s public finances will now be postponed until a new government is formed, ING analysts said last week.

As a state-owned firm, France’s electricity giant EDF has contributed to the country’s piling public debt.

But EDF’s large nuclear reactor fleet that provides around 70% of France’s power and the rebound in hydropower generation have allowed France to boost its electricity exports this year. 

“Buoyed by strong nuclear and hydroelectric output, France has exported record amounts of electricity to neighboring countries this year, despite limitations on eastern interconnections that restricted exports in the spring,” energy firm Engie said in its semi-annual briefing on the European energy market in September.

Electricity demand in France remains below 2020 levels, partly due to a loss of industrial output and competitiveness and consumer energy-saving efforts, Engie said, noting that demand has rebounded more quickly in Germany, the UK, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

France’s net exports of electricity are set to hit a record high in 2024, data from French grid operator RTE shows. That’s because maintenance on many nuclear reactors has been completed, and hydropower generation has rebounded. 

There is no imminent threat to France’s huge power exports. Yet, the political instability in Europe’s largest net electricity exporter makes the European power markets even more nervous. 

Europe’s industry is set to lose further competitiveness as high energy prices, rising natural gas prices, and concerns about gas supply this winter are increasing uncertainty about factory utilization amid rising costs.

European benchmark natural gas prices are hovering around a one-year high hit last month as cold snaps in November dashed hopes and prayers of a third relatively mild winter in a row.

In recent weeks, Europe has been depleting its natural gas stocks at the fastest pace since 2016 as demand has increased with the colder temperatures.

This adds to the looming end of Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe via Ukraine after December 31 and growing competition for spot LNG supply with Asia for winter demand.

This winter could inflict more pain on industries relying on natural gas and force curtailments in production, analysts and industry executives have told Reuters.

The much higher energy costs in Europe are putting its industries at a disadvantage compared to the U.S., Asia, or the Middle East.

For example, the current Dutch hub price is almost five times higher than the benchmark U.S. natural gas price at Henry Hub.

The highest spot-based electricity prices in Europe since February 2023 threaten industrial production in key economies and loom large over business sentiment.

Amid rising energy prices and fast-depleting natural gas inventories, European energy markets are more anxious than usual as the governments of the two biggest economies, Germany and France, have now collapsed. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 05:00

Wind Power Has Hit Its Limits In Europe

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Wind Power Has Hit Its Limits In Europe

Europe is starting to reach its limit when it comes to wind power.

Countries like Denmark and Sweden, once leaders in expanding offshore wind capacity, are now hitting obstacles as power prices and incentives fall too low to support new projects, according to Bloomberg.

A recent Danish auction for offshore wind saw no bids, highlighting the issue. This slowdown in wind development risks prolonging reliance on fossil fuels, as rising costs challenge the sector’s earlier success in driving down prices.

Denmark, which generated a world-leading 58% of its electricity from wind last year, saw no bids in its largest-ever offshore wind tender. Companies like state-owned Ørsted A/S cited unattractive investment conditions, with low electricity prices driven by an oversupply of wind power.

The Bloomberg report says that Sweden faces similar challenges, as years of rapid wind expansion have depressed returns, discouraging new projects. Delays and cancellations of green industrial projects in the north further cloud future demand.

The UK’s goal to phase out fossil fuels by 2030 will require a major shift in power consumption to align with renewable energy’s fluctuating supply, says the grid operator. Currently, record amounts of wind power are wasted due to grid limitations.

Unlike coal and gas plants, wind farms operate whenever conditions allow, often resulting in excess supply and even negative power prices.

While solar faces similar issues, falling panel costs have lessened the impact. The wind sector, however, is grappling with rising costs for materials like steel and labor. Encouraging consumers to adjust demand—especially with electrification of transport, heating, and industry—could stabilize prices and drive investment in clean energy.

Brian Vad Mathiesen, a professor at Aalborg University in Denmark, commented: “We cannot have an electricity system that’s based solely on wind and solar. There are stark technical and economic limits to how much we can integrate into the grid.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/12/2024 – 04:15