US equity futures are higher into NVDA earnings release after the close, and the risk-on tone in the US yesterday has spread globally with tech giant’s earnings a catalyst for maintaining the rally aided by Tech. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% as with Nasdaq 100 contracts +0.4%; NVDA is up 0.6% in premarket trading and while blowout results from the company later today may soothe nerves about the AI trade, “even if they have tremendous numbers, we know the markets are really fickle,” said Mahoney Asset Management’s Ken Mahoney. Other Mag7s are also higher ex-AAPL and TSLA with Cyclicals bid, led by Fins/Industrials/Materials while Defensives mostly lower pre-mkt, ex-Healthcare, reflecting the risk-on tone. JPM says to keep an eye on Software if TMT gains positive momentum. European stocks rose 0.5%, hitting a record on a rebound in banks and miners. South Korea pushed past France in stock-market value.Bond yields are +1-3bp, the dollar slipped after President Donald Trump doubled down on his commitment to tariffs, before erasing the move, and commodities are bid led by Metals with precious outperforming base especially silver and platinum. Bitcoin rallied more than 2%. Gold and silver climbed. Today’s macro data releases are light (only Mortgage Applicatgions which rose 0.4%) ahead of tomorrow’s  jobless claims and Friday’s PPI, but with multiple Fedspeakers. Yesterday we saw better weekly ADP data, weaker regional Fed data, and improving consumer sentiment.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher, with Nvidia +0.8% ahead of its report (Alphabet +0.5%, Amazon +0.5%, Microsoft +0.3%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Tesla +0.4%, Apple -0.2%). 

• Lithium stocks are rising after Zimbabwe suspended exports of lithium concentrates and raw minerals.
• AbCellera Biologics (ABCL) rises 8% after the drug developer reported total revenue for the fourth quarter that was ahead of the average analyst estimate. The firm also posted loss per share for the quarter that was narrower than Wall Street’s expectations.
• Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) falls 21% after the maker of thermal insulation used in electric vehicles reported loss per share for the fourth quarter that’s wider than expected. The company has initiated a strategic review.
• Axon (AXON) rises 15% after the Taser maker reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Camping World (CWH) slides 12% after the retailer of recreational vehicles reported a larger-than-expected adjusted Ebitda loss for the fourth quarter.
• Cava Group (CAVA) climbs 11% after the fast-casual chain’s restaurant comp sales forecast for 2026 came in above the average estimate from analysts.
• Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) rises 16% as profit and revenue increased more than estimated while the amount of its USDC stablecoin in circulation jumped 72% to $75.3 billion in the fourth quarter.
• First Solar (FSLR) slides 16% after the maker of electricity-producing solar modules reported a 2026 net sales forecast which missed the average analyst estimate.
• HP Inc. (HPQ) falls 5% after providing a profit outlook for the current quarter that may fall short of estimates and said full-year earnings will likely hit the lower end of a previously forecast range as the company copes with tariffs and the rising price of memory chips.
• Lowe’s Cos. (LOW) slips 3% after forecasting sales guidance for the full year that fell short of expectations, a sign the housing market will remain lackluster in the near term due to high borrowing costs and economic volatility.
• Lucid (LCID) declines 2% after the electric-vehicle maker reported adjusted loss per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• MercadoLibre (MELI) falls 5% after the online marketplace for Latin America reported its fourth-quarter results. While analysts are broadly positive on growth trends, they noted that elevated spending will pressure the company’s margins.
• Oddity Tech (ODD) slumps 34% after the direct-to-consumer beauty and wellness company said it expects its revenue for the first quarter of 2026 to decline 30% year-over-year.
• Workday (WDAY) declines 9% after giving a subscription revenue guidance that missed expectations, adding to investor concerns that a rise of AI automation tools is disrupting traditional software vendors.

In other corporate news, DoorDash is pulling out of four countries in Asia, a sign that fierce competition and thin margins are weighing on its overseas ambitions. Anthropic has loosened its central safety policy, coinciding with a growing dispute with the Defense Department. AMC plans to close more theaters in underperforming locations.

Expectations are high for Nvidia as customers have announced huge capex plans, but a positive stock reaction is key for the Nasdaq after recent underperformance, said Arnaud Girod, head of cross-asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux. “We’re in the thick of uncertainty about the disruption of AI with the market de-rating entire segments of the stock market.”

To reinvigorate its stock performance, Nvidia will at least need to beat its prior outlook and set new targets above current Wall Street estimates. While the company has done this repeatedly, concerns have grown that the AI spending wave isn’t sustainable. “Nvidia’s results are expected to be good given the massive capex announced by its clients, but it’s all about how the market will react,” said Arnaud Girod, head of cross-asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux. “The Nasdaq needs Nvidia if it is to limit its current underperformance.”

Another key earnings event on Wednesday is Salesforce, the cloud-based customer-relationship firm whose stock has plunged 30% this year after getting caught up in the selloff of software companies on fears that AI could render their services obsolete. Analysts, on average, project that the company will post its best quarterly revenue growth rate in three years. Still, highlighting the risks for software-as-a-service firms, Workday Inc. slid nearly 10% in early trading after subscription sales fell short of estimates.

Turning to Trump’s State of the Union address, the President talked up the economy saying that the nation is back, bigger, better and stronger than before, while he added that we’ve seen nothing yet and this is the golden age of America.

• Trump said they have achieved a transformation like never before and a turnaround for the ages, as well as stated that low interest rates will solve the housing problem, and they want to protect home values and keep them up.
• He also commented that inflation is plummeting, salaries are rising, and the roaring economy is roaring like never before.
• Regarding tariffs, Trump said the Supreme Court decision on tariffs is very unfortunate, but added that tariffs will remain in place and nearly all countries want to keep the trade deals, while he also stated that congressional action won’t be needed on tariffs.
• Trump also commented on Iran, which he claimed is working on missiles that could soon reach the US, and noted Iran wants to make a deal but hasn’t yet said that it won’t pursue nuclear weapons, while he reiterated that his preference is to resolve Iran’s nuclear issue through diplomacy.

Out of the 450 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 74% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 21% have missed. TJX, Bank of Montreal and Lowe’s are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Wall Street expects TJX’s fourth-quarter results to have received a boost from a strong holiday shopping season, with comparable sales estimate of +3.7% (Bloomberg Consensus). Earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce follow later with Wall Street eager to hear what it has to say about potential disruption to software makers from AI upstarts like Anthropic.

Rates on Japan’s longer-term bonds climbed further after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government nominated two new Bank of Japan policy board members who are seen as dovish. The yen fell 0.5%, the worst performance among major currencies.

European stocks are higher across the board with the FTSE 100 outpacing peers as post-earnings gains in HSBC send the index to a record high. Mining and banking shares are leading gains. Meanwhile, food and beverage as well as personal care stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• HSBC shares advanced as much as 6.1% in London to a fresh high after the lender reported strong earnings ahead of estimates and offered new guidance figures that analysts say are above expectations
• Relx shares rise as much as 5.3% after the professional publisher says it’s integrating an Anthropic automation tool into its legal research platform
• Anglo American rallied as much as 4.4% in London after DZ Bank upgraded the miner to buy from hold, saying that the merger with Teck Resources to become one of the world’s biggest copper producers is going as planned
• Lion Finance Group shares climb as much as 9.8% to the highest level on record, after the Georgian lender reported strong fourth-quarter results
• Temenos shares rise as much as 8.6%, the most since October, after the software firm raised its mid-term targets for annual recurring revenue, free cash flow and Ebit, while issuing fiscal 2026 guidance that met expectations
• St James’s Place shares climb as much as 7.3%, the most since July, after the British wealth manager reported underlying cash profit for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate
• Diageo shares fall as much as 7.1% after the maker of Guinness stout and Johnnie Walker whiskey cut its sales guidance due to further weakness in the key US market, and reduced its dividend
• Haleon shares drop as much as 5.6% after the consumer healthcare firm delivered weaker-than-expected organic growth in the final quarter of 2025 and issued guidance that was below its mid-term ambition
• Iberdrola shares slip as much as 1.5%, ceding earlier gains, after the Spanish power company’s fourth-quarter net income missed estimates, overshadowing a 12% rise in full-year 2025 results

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rise for a third straight day, led by tech stocks, as investors pared concerns over potential disruption from artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1% at the close to remain near record highs, with  chipmakers TSMC and Samsung continuing to drive advances. Benchmarks in Japan and Taiwan rose more than 2%, while Australian and Korean shares also gained over 1%. Asia’s equity markets have avoided some of the volatility sweeping Wall Street in recent weeks, as investors remain confident about the region’s role in supplying essential AI components to the US. On Wednesday, the region’s tech firms were further supported by comments from Anthropic PBC that it plans to build partnerships with existing businesses. 

“Today’s firmer Asia open, following the US rebound, looks like a reset from oversold levels,” said Ritesh Ganeriwal, head of investment at Syfe Pte in Singapore. “The bounce in US tech is providing near-term relief to sentiment.” “That said, we would characterize this as tactical stabilization rather than a full reset of positioning. Markets are still digesting valuation, earnings visibility, and AI monetization assumptions.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is now up a touch as yen weakness helped the greenback shrug off initial downside. The yen was sold and the JGB curve steepened after Japanese PM Takaichi nominated two dovish reflationist academics to join the BOJ board.

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper in early US trading as stock futures advance and investors set up for 5-year note auction at 1pm New York time.US yields are 1bp-3bp higher and curve spreads are within 1bp of Tuesday’s close. 10-year near 4.05% is 2bp cheaper, lagging German counterpart by around 1bp.$70 billion 5-year note auction follows solid results for Tuesday’s 2-year; WI 5-year yield near 3.618% is ~20.5bp richer than last month’s auction, which tailed by 0.3bp. Elsewhere in the rates space, US yields are up 1-2bps across the curve with modest upside also seen in German and UK borrowing costs.

While Treasuries showcased their haven status during Monday’s tech selloff, longer-term pressures including uncertainty over inflation, tariffs and fiscal questions remain, according to Laura Cooper, head of macro credit at Nuveen. “We are unlikely to see the resumption of rate cuts until we see greater signs of disinflationary pressures coming through, which to our mind is more of a second-half-of-2026 story,” Cooper told Bloomberg TV. “All of the factors suggest we are in a higher-for-longer yield backdrop.”

In commodities, WTI crude is up 0.3%, but down from highs. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran is working to reconstitute its nuclear program. Spot gold and silver are up 0.5% and 3.5% respectively. Bitcoin is up 2.1% after a recent run of losses. 

The US economic data calendar is blank, while Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (10:40am), Schmid (11am) and Musalem (1:20pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 +0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.05%
• VIX little changed at 19.51
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1189.37
• euro +0.1% at $1.1786
• WTI crude +0.4% at $65.89/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump accused Iran of reviving its nuclear program in his State of the Union address, adding to speculation of new US strikes. BBG
• Trump pledged a new retirement savings plan for workers without 401(k)s. It would be modeled after the federal Thrift Savings Plan, with a government match of up to $1,000 annually. BBG
• US House Speaker Johnson said codifying some of the tariffs would be difficult and will have discussions on tariffs in coming weeks, via Fox Business Interview.
• The Pentagon threatened to invoke a Cold War-era law against Anthropic unless it allows unrestricted military use of its technology by Friday, people familiar said. Anthropic said in a blog post that it’s loosening its hallmark safety pledge.
• Nvidia Corp. has yet to sell any of its H200 chips to China two months after President Donald Trump’s decision to allow shipments of the artificial intelligence processors to the world’s second-largest economy. BBG
• Two Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday signaled no near-term appetite to change the setting of central bank interest rate policy. Markets expect the Fed to lower rates again this year but officials, faced with a stabilizing job market and uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will moderate back to target, have not given much guidance about the prospect for more reductions in the cost of short-term borrowing. RTRS
• Japan must keep raising interest rates and tighten fiscal policy as the economy is already in “great shape,” former central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda said, warning that Premier Sanae Takaichi’s big spending plan could stoke an inflationary upswing. RTRS
• Japan’s government has nominated candidates for two positions at the central bank, a move that could be viewed as a chance to influence monetary policy in a more dovish direction. WSJ
• The Aussie gained as January core inflation came in stronger than expected. The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cut rates to 1%. BBG
• Consumers expecting a drop in prices after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the White House’s emergency tariffs are likely to be disappointed, as businesses plan to use any relief to offset elevated costs and gird themselves to chase refunds. RTRS

Trade/Tariffs

• China’s Commerce Ministry, on USTR Greer comments, said that China has fulfilled obligations of China-US phase one agreement.
• China’s Commerce Ministry announces that the country encourages imports of services related to chip research, development and design.
• Chinese Premier Li said in meeting with German Chancellor Merz that China is willing to bolster dialogue, communication and mutual trust.
• German Chancellor Merz on trade with China said, they welcome any further market opening and it is in their mutual interest.
• US President Trump said Supreme Court decision on tariffs is very unfortunate, but adds that tariffs will remain in place and nearly all countries want to keep the trade deals, also said congressional action won’t be needed on tariffs.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the rebound on Wall Street after Anthropic’s presentation helped soothe some AI/software concerns, and with tech also bolstered by the USD 60bln Meta-AMD chip deal. ASX 200 advanced with gains led by notable outperformance in the tech, consumer staples and mining sectors, while participants continue to digest an overload of earnings and are unfazed by firmer-than-expected CPI data. Nikkei 225 rallied to a fresh record high as exporters benefitted from recent currency weakness after it was reported that Japanese PM Takaichi relayed to BoJ Governor Ueda her reservations about further rate hikes. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad upbeat risk sentiment, with attention in Hong Kong on the annual budget and with the mainland underpinned with the PBoC conducting a CNY 600bln MLF operation.

Top Asian News

• China aims to boost output of relatively advanced chips to 100,000 wafers in 1-2 years, according to Nikkei; China has set target of adding an additional 500,000 wafers of capacity by 2030.
• Shanghai City relaxes home buying rules for non-residents effective on Thursday and will exempt property tax for certain home buyers.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.
• Major Japanese brokerage warns that yen could test post-election low if BoJ appointments are dovish.
• Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chan said in Budget Address that 2025 GDP rose 3.5% and the domestic economic trend is to continue to be good in 2026. Sees 2026 GDP at 2.5%-3.5% and average growth of 3.0% per year in real terms for 2027-2030.
• Hong Kong budget is speculated to include funding for tech hub and aerospace sector incentives, according to SCMP.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) are entirely in the green, with the FTSE MIB and FTSE 100 (+0.9%) gaining, helped by positive HSBC earnings. The SMI (+0.1%) is the slight laggard, weighed down by Alcon (-1.1%) after the Co. missed on Q4 revenue and core EPS. European sectors are broadly in the green. Banks (+1.8%) and Basic Resources (+2.2%) sit comfortably at the top of the table, while Food, Beverages and Tobacco (-0.7%) is soft as poor Diageo guidance hits the rest of the sector (Pernod Ricard -2.9%, Heineken -0.3%). HSBC shares (+5.5%) are higher today for three reasons: 1) beating market estimates for its top line metrics, 2) lifting its annual 2026-28 ROTE to 17% or greater, and 3) stating its USD 1.5bln cost-saving target will be hit ahead of schedule. This, alongside an update from Santander (+2.7%), in which they expect 2028 net income at EUR 20bln (exp. EUR 18.6bln), lifts the Banking sector.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is facing renewed called to cut bank tax as UK competitiveness lags, according to City AM.
• German lawmakers are reportedly set to approve EUR 540mln order for attack drones, Bloomberg reported citing sources.

FX

• DXY trade flat intraday and off worst levels within a current 97.643-97.867 range after briefly dipping under yesterday’s 97.695 low, with little reaction to US President Trump’s State of the Union Address, where he defended his leadership and described the past year as a “turnaround for the ages”; he promoted tariffs as strengthening the US economy, and said they would “substantially replace” income taxes; he offered limited details on Iran, China and Ukraine. Aside from that, newsflow this morning has been on the lighter side. Focus ahead will be on Fed speak and then NVIDIA earnings.
• JPY underperforms with recent developments seeing PM Takaichi nominating academics Ayano Sato and Toichiro Asada to the BoJ policy board, replacing Asahi Noguchi and Junko Nakagawa; analysts said the picks are viewed as reflationist and dovish, and may reduce expectations of near-term rate hikes. Further, JPY weakness coincided with reports that Japan’s FTC conducted an on-site inspection of Microsoft (MSFT) on suspicion of violating the Antimonopoly Act, Nikkei reported, potentially stoking some Big Tech-related bilateral tensions. USD/JPY resides in a 155.34-156.64 range after topping Tuesday’s 156.28 high.
• AUD is the G10 outperformer following firmer-than-expected monthly CPI data from Australia. The upside in consumer inflation was driven by electricity and garments & footwear offset somewhat by a larger than expected fall in holiday travel and a smaller than expected rise in health. Analysts at Westpac note “Consistent with our preliminary review we see little risk to our current inflation profile.” AUD/USD resides closer to the top end of a 0.7057-0.7117 range at the time of writing.
• GBP and EUR trade with mild gains despite a flat DXY, possibly more a function of JPY weakness as GBP/JPY hovers around 211.50 and EUR/JPY meanders around 184.50. Aside from that, specifics for GBP and EUR are light, with the latter eyeing EZ final inflation metrics.

Central Banks

• Former BoJ Governor Kuroda said Japan need to move toward tighter fiscal and monetary policy as the economy is already in great shape. Recent USD/JPY levels near 157 is somewhat too weak. BoJ can probably hike rates around twice a year in 2026 and 2027 to around 1.5-1.75%. PM Takaichi’s administration spending and tax-cut plans could fuel inflation and push up bond yields.
• Japan nominates professors Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato to replace outgoing BoJ board members Noguchi and Nakagawa.
• Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary said aware of report that PM Takaichi voiced apprehension to additional BoJ rate hikes, adds Takaichi did not have a specific request and there is ‘nothing more or less than that’.
• RBA Governor Bullock said patience is required in assessing policy.
• China may see lower rates from Q2, according to experts cited by China Securities Journal.
• Thai Central Bank unexpectedly cuts its rate by 25bps to 1.00% (exp. a hold at 1.25%); 4-2 voted in favour of the cut; said downside risks to headline inflation are expected to increase relative to previous assessment.

Fixed Income

• Global benchmarks are broadly lower this morning. Pressure which also comes alongside JGB selling, which are currently lower by around 50 ticks. The situation is Japan appears to be shifting from optimism surrounding political stability, after PM Takaichi’s landslide victory, to one where traders are questioning “reflationist” policy; this refers to government’s ability to boost spending whilst also allowing inflation to run higher. Fears which were sparked by reports on Tuesday, that PM Takaichi expressed her apprehension to further BoJ hikes. Moreover, overnight it was reported that the government had recommended two academics, who have been described as “staunch reflationists”, by Chief Fixed Income strategist SBI Securities.
• USTs are lower by a handful of ticks and currently hold within a 113-05+ to 113-10+ range, with price action ultimately sideways for much of the morning. Pressure this morning in tandem with easing AI disruption related fears, after Anthropic announced a slew of new partnerships. Overnight, markets tuned into President Trump’s State of the Union Address, in which he largely talked up the US economy; on trade, he suggested that tariffs will remain in place and nearly all countries want to keep the trade deals. On the Iran situation, he suggested that Iran wants to make a deal, and reiterated his own preference to solve the situation through diplomacy. Overall, his comments did not spur a reaction in US paper.
• Bunds initially held around the unchanged mark early doors, before slipping slightly into the red; currently off by around 10 ticks, to hold within a 129.50-129.71 range. Earlier, Final German GDP (Q4) figures were unrevised, whilst the GfK Consumer Confidence metrics deteriorated from the prior vs expectations of a slight improvement. Little move to the release of Final EZ HICP metrics.
• Gilts follow peers lower, and currently lower by 10 ticks within a 92.94-92.84 range. Focus on Tuesday was on the BoE, where several MPC members appeared at the TSC hearing. Governor Bailey noted that would go into coming meetings asking if a cut is justified, adding that a rate cut at the next meeting is a genuinely open question. Market pricing was little moved following the hearing and are still yet to definitively determine if the next cut will be in March or April. Elsewhere, CityAM reported that UK Chancellor Reeves is facing renewed calls to cut the bank tax as UK competitiveness lags.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain underpinned, with WTI and Brent trading within the ranges of USD 65.45-66.60/bbl and USD 70.45-71.60/bbl, respectively. Ongoing geopolitical tension between the US and Iran will likely keep oil prices volatile in the near term. At the time of writing, the latest update includes US Senator Cruz suggesting that they are likely to see limited strikes on Iran in a matter of days. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran will resume talks with the US in Geneva tomorrow. In Russia and Ukraine, Washington warned Ukraine not to strike targets within Russia that could hit US economic interests, according to the FT.
• In the precious metal space, XAU and XAG continue to surge, trading at the upper range of USD 5128.3-5310.7/oz and USD 86.22-87.10/oz, respectively. The yellow metal has been underpinned by recent dollar softness as well as continuous haven demand over geopolitical uncertainty between the US and Iran.
• Copper prices are slightly firmer this morning, tracking global risk sentiment from Wall Street and APAC, which finished higher, as well as the European session, which is trading mostly positive thus far this morning. At the time of writing, 3M LME copper is trading at the upper end of a USD 13.19-13.29k range.
• Russia and Iran are cutting its oil prices to China, Bloomberg reported citing traders; Russia’s Urals grade is selling USD 12/bbl below ICE Brent (prev. USD 10/bbl below), Iranian Light selling USD 11/bbl below ICE Brent (prev. USD 8-9/bbl).

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine President Zelensky’s negotiators will meet with US counterparts on Thursday and is targeting a leaders summit in March.
• Washington warns Ukraine over striking US economic interests in Russia, FT reported. Kyiv’s ambassador to Washington said the Trump admin has formally warned Ukraine not to strike targets within Russia that could hit US economic interests.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump said Iran is working on missiles that could soon reach the US, and noted Iran wants to make a deal but hasn’t yet said that it won’t pursue nuclear weapons, reiterates his preference is to resolve Iran nuclear issue via diplomacy.
• Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker said, with relation to US-Iran talks, all options are on the table. Ready for dignified diplomacy, also ready for defence.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Feb 20 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 2.8%
• 10:40 am: United States Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Panel
• 11:00 am: United States Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Monetary Policy and the Economy
• 1:20 pm: United States Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Role of Fed

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets recovered their poise over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.77%) advancing thanks to positive US data and a rebound in software stocks. Clearly that mood could change with Nvidia’s results after tonight’s close, but the news led to a bit more confidence in the near-term outlook, and the financial stress at the start of the week eased across several asset classes. Moreover, inflation concerns also fell back after Brent crude oil prices (-1.01%) declined for a second day. So there was a much more positive tone relative to Monday’s selloff, and futures on the S&P 500 (+0.01%) are just about higher as well this morning.

In terms of the latest on the AI side, there wasn’t much in the way of fresh headlines to drive markets yesterday, but we did see software and other tech stocks pare back their Monday losses. For instance, the NASDAQ (+1.04%) and the Magnificent 7 (+1.14%) both put in a decent performance, and the S&P 500’s software component (+1.28%) picked up from its 10-month low on Monday. Meanwhile, AMD (+8.77%) was the second-best performer in the S&P 500 after it was announced that Meta would acquire AMD chips with a total capacity of 6 gigawatts. So it was a strong session for tech stocks, which also supported broader US equity gains. By the close, more than 70% of the S&P 500’s companies were higher on the day, with consumer discretionary (+1.58%) and industrials (+1.23%) sectors leading the way. However, there were more concerns in the credit space, with US IG and HY spreads both edging +1bps higher, reaching their widest levels since December.

Risk assets got further support from the latest US data, as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading picked back up to 91.2 in February (vs. 87.1 expected). Moreover, the expectations component also rebounded to 72.0, up from a 9-month low the previous month. There were also promising signs on the labour market, as the ADP’s weekly private payrolls series hit a 2-month high, showing 4-week average growth of +12.75k in the period to February 7. So at the margins, that leant positively against the recent talk of AI-driven unemployment.

Given the more positive data and the tech stock rebound, investors also priced in a slightly more hawkish path for the Fed over the year ahead. For instance, the probability of a rate cut by the June meeting fell to just 52%, the lowest so far this year. And looking further out, just 55bps of cuts are now priced in by the December meeting, which was down -3.9bps on the day. So in turn, that pushed up front-end Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield (+2.3bps) up to 3.46%, although the 10yr yield (-0.2bps) was basically flat at 4.03%. Comments from Fed officials also leaned against imminent rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warning that 3% inflation “is not good enough” and that they needed to make more progress. And Boston Fed President Collins said rate were likely to stay unchanged “for some time” and that she was looking for more confidence that disinflation resumes. There were also discussions around AI-related job losses too, with Governor Cook saying that “our normal demand-side monetary policy may not be able to ameliorate an AI-caused unemployment spell without also increasing inflationary pressure”.

Another supportive factor yesterday was the latest dip in oil prices, which helped to ease concerns on the inflation side. In part, that was driven by growing hopes for some sort of deal between the US and Iran that would avoid a military escalation. Indeed, Trump himself had posted on Monday evening after the US close that “I would rather have a Deal than not”. So that took a bit of the geopolitical risk premium out, with Brent crude down -1.01% to $70.77/bbl, whilst gold prices fell -1.60% to $5,144/oz. Trump echoed that rhetoric on a deal in last night’s State of the Union address, saying that his “preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy”.

Over in Japan, the yen weakened yesterday after the Mainichi newspaper reported that PM Takaichi was apprehensive about more rate hikes in a meeting last week with BoJ Governor Ueda. So it was down -0.78% against the US Dollar yesterday, making it the weakest-performing G10 currency. Then this morning, Japanese equities have seen a strong outperformance after the government nominated two reflationists to join the Bank of Japan’s board, who were seen as favouring more stimulus. So the Nikkei is up +2.60% this morning, on course for another record high, and bringing its 2026 gains to +16.83% already.

That optimism has been clear elsewhere in Asia, building on the overnight gains seen on Wall Street. So in South Korea, the KOSPI (+1.79%) is up for a 5th consecutive session, and also on track to close at a record. Similarly in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.17%) is on course for an all-time high as well, despite a stronger-than-expected CPI report this morning, with inflation remaining at +3.8% in January (vs. +3.7% expected). So that’s seen investors price in more RBA rate hikes at the next few meetings, and the Australian Dollar has strengthened against every other G10 currency this morning, up +0.73% against the US Dollar. Otherwise, there’s also been gains for the Hang Seng (+0.72%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.99%) and the CSI 300 (+0.86%).

Earlier in Europe, most assets had also put in a decent performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (+0.23%) paring back some of Monday’s losses as well. That came as longer-dated yields continued to fall across the continent, with yields on 10yr gilts (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-0.5bps) at their lowest since December 2024, whilst 10yr OAT yields (-0.8bps) reached their lowest since July. For 10yr bund yields (-0.4bps) there was a comparatively smaller fall, but yields still closed at their lowest since November.

Looking at the day ahead, one of the main highlights will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close tonight. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin, Schmid and Musalem, and the ECB’s Vujcic. There’s not much data, but we will get the final Euro Area CPI print for January, along with the final Q4 GDP release from Germany.

A week after Bill Gates abruptly pulled out as a keynote speaker at a high-profile global AI summit in India, the left-wing billionaire finally mustered enough nerve to “take responsibility for his actions” over his ties to late financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein during a town hall meeting with Gates Foundation employees.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Gates told employees at a town hall event for the foundation on Tuesday that he never spent time with Epstein’s victims, and never visited Epstein’s island.

He revealed that Epstein later learned about two affairs he had with Russian women, but said those relationships did not involve Epstein’s victims. Gates said photos in the Epstein files show him with redacted women were taken by Epstein’s assistants after meetings.

Did Gates fall into a Russian honeypot?

“I did nothing illicit. I saw nothing illicit,” Gates emphasized, according to a recording reviewed by WSJ journalists.

Gates continued, “To be clear, I never spent any time with victims, the women around him.”

“It was a huge mistake to spend time with Epstein” and bring Gates Foundation executives into meetings with the sex offender, Gates said, adding, “I apologize to other people who are drawn into this because of the mistake that I made.”

Last week, the $86 billion philanthropic body’s last-minute decision to yank Gates was a major embarrassment and came as the Epstein fallout worsened, with many high-profile people under fire.

Related:

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• Watch: GOP Releases Full Les Wexner Epstein Deposition

“Knowing what I know now makes it, you know, a hundred times worse in terms of not only his crimes in the past, but now it’s clear there was ongoing bad behavior,” Gates said. He gave credit to his ex-wife, who “was always kind of skeptical about the Epstein thing.”

Gates told staff he began meeting Epstein in 2011, despite the financier’s 2008 guilty plea for soliciting a minor for prostitution. He said he was aware of the “18-month thing” that had restricted Epstein’s travel, yet continued the relationship, even after his then-wife, Melinda French Gates, raised serious concerns in 2013.

He said the relationship continued through 2014 and that he flew on a private jet with Epstein and spent time with him in Germany, France, New York, and Washington. “I never stayed overnight,” he said, or visited Epstein’s island.

He said Epstein “talked about the kind of intimate relationship he had with a lot of billionaires, particularly Wall Street billionaires,” and that he could help raise money for global health nonprofits.

“It definitely is the opposite of the values of the Foundation and the goals of the Foundation,” he said. “And our work is very reputation-sensitive. I mean, people can choose to work with us or not work with us.”

No matter what, the Gates Foundation has a dark cloud hanging over it because of Gates’ involvement amid the deepening Epstein fallout.

Gates is worth billions, so why would he need Epstein to raise money for global health nonprofits? Something doesn’t pass the sniff test in this damage-control town hall he held for his foundation’s employees.

Global sanctions meet the digital age in a recent interesting bit of FT analysis, which concluded that a single email server may have exposed what amounts to a $90 billion shadow pipeline for Russian crude.

While Western media and officials would consider this an ‘illicit’ sprawling sanctions-evasion machine hiding in plain sight, Moscow sees US-EU efforts to stamp out its international energy trade as an unjust tactic to impose total economic isolation related to the Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

The Financial Times report alleges that “48 seemingly independent companies working from different physical addresses” in reality appear to be “operating together to disguise the origin of Russian oil, particularly from Kremlin-controlled Rosneft.”

Discovery of a common backend infrastructure reportedly exposes the scheme, as on the surface it looked like a fragmented web of independent traders – while digitally, it was one ecosystem.

For example, the FT identified 442 web domains all routed through the same private server – “mx.phoenixtrading.ltd” – with 19 of those domains reportedly tied to Russian businesses, spanning energy and real estate ventures, and curiously several are linked to Azeri nationals.

Among the heavy hitters identified are Dubai-based Foxton FZCO, listed in Russian export records as purchasing $5.6 billion worth of oil – and Advan Alliance appears in Indian customs data as having sold $1.5 billion in Russian crude into India.

Investigators further found the companies had remarkably short lifespans, suggesting fraud, and in some cases customs records revealed the average entity operated for just six months.

The report alleges additionally that once sanctioned a firm would often vanish, only to be replaced by a fresh corporate shell – leaving oversight authorities and enforcement lagging far behind.

The report further highlights in the wake of Trump sanctioning export giants Rosneft and Lukoil back in October 2025:

Since those sanctions were imposed, an otherwise unknown company in the network, “Redwood Global Supply”, has become the single largest exporter of Russian crude. The companies are linked to a group of Azeri businessmen with strong ties to Rosneft.

Ukraine and EU officials are calling for greater efforts to bust up such deceptive digital networks in order to starve the Russian war machine financially.

“The frequent changes of names of ships, managers and oil marketing companies… are long-standing deceptive shipping practices designed to obfuscate the destination, origin and ownership of cargoes and their logistics,” Michelle Wiese Bockmann of maritime intelligence firm Windward told the FT.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

An Afghan man accused of rape in Austria jumped bail and fled to Britain, where he was granted asylum and lived freely for over six years.

It is the second such case to be exposed this month after a similar incident involving a Syrian convicted of sexually assaulting a teenager in Germany, who failed to attend his probation hearings and illegally entered the U.K.

As revealed by The Sun newspaper, Omar Ali Noori, 31, arrived illegally in Britain in 2019 after fleeing Austria. He had been arrested in connection with the rape of a woman in Linz in 2018, but absconded while on bail before proceedings concluded.

Despite this, he was granted indefinite leave to remain for five years by the Home Office in 2023. His 23-year-old wife joined him in Britain last year.

Court records cited during an extradition hearing revealed that Noori had used four identities and five different dates of birth on official documents.

At Westminster Magistrates’ Court, Judge Neeta Minhas ordered that Noori, currently held at Wandsworth Prison in south-west London, be returned to Austria to serve a three-year prison sentence for absconding, in addition to facing the rape charge.

Judge Minhas said, “Noori was directly asked if he had committed or been accused of an offence in any country or whether he had been detained in any country. His response to both questions was in the negative. This was clearly not accurate. I find that Noori is a fugitive.”

Noori is now appealing his extradition back to Austria.

An almost mirror case was reported earlier this month after it emerged that Syrian national Azizadeen Alsheikh Suliman, 34, was convicted in Germany of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old girl in Osnabrück in 2022.

According to German media reports, he approached the victim in the city center, under the pretext of asking for a cigarette, before attempting to kiss her and later sexually assaulting her in a nearby courtyard. He was also convicted of supplying drugs to a minor.

German courts handed Suliman a two-year suspended custodial sentence, conditional on probation, and ordered him to pay €3,000 in compensation to the victim. He later breached the terms of his probation and left Germany, prompting the issuance of a European arrest warrant.

Suliman subsequently travelled to Britain via a small boat across the English Channel. He applied for asylum using a different spelling of his name, enabling him to avoid detection for several years. He was housed in taxpayer-funded accommodation in the Greater Manchester area, where he lived with his wife and child before being identified by authorities.

An extradition request was upheld earlier this month, but has been appealed by Suliman. His legal team argues that he faces a risk to his life if returned to Germany because of a feud originating in Syria involving his cousin, and that extradition would breach Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights by separating him from his wife and child.

It is likely that Noori’s appeal will also focus on human rights legislation.

Read more here…

Via The Cradle

Saudi Arabia recorded its widest quarterly budget deficit in five years in the final three months of 2025, as lower crude oil prices weigh down the kingdom’s finances, Bloomberg is reporting.

Data released by the Saudi Ministry of Finance  shows the government posted a deficit of 94.9 billion riyals ($25.3 billion) in the fourth quarter, which brought the total shortfall for 2025 to nearly 276.6 billion riyals ($73.73 billion), more than double the previous year’s 115.6 billion riyals ($30.82 billion) deficit in 2024. 

The full-year deficit amounted to roughly 5.5 percent of gross domestic product.

Non-oil revenue reached about 122.6 billion riyals ($32.68 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025, while oil revenue fell to around 154.2 billion riyals ($41.10 billion), down from 170.8 billion riyals ($45.53 billion) in the same period a year earlier, according to Finance Ministry data.

Saudi Arabia has been running budget deficits since late 2022, with Bloomberg Economics noting that the kingdom would need oil prices to average about $97 per barrel in 2025 to balance its budget.

That figure rises to roughly $114 per barrel when domestic spending by the sovereign wealth fund is included. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, is currently trading at around $71.

This gap has prompted heavier borrowing on international bond markets, as well as major delays and downscaling of the Kingdom’s large-scale megaprojects tied to the Saudi Vision 2030 program, championed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).

Bloomberg reported in late January that Saudi authorities had begun pressing some of the kingdom’s wealthiest families to inject additional capital into domestic ventures, as Vision 2030 megaprojects face scaling back or suspension. 

In the same month, Reuters reported that the construction of the Mukaab, the towering cube-shaped centerpiece of Riyadh’s New Murabba development, was suspended beyond initial groundwork, as the Public Investment Fund (PIF) reassessed financing and feasibility. 

The Financial Times had also reported that Saudi Arabia’s $1.5 trillion NEOM development is set to be significantly “downscaled and redesigned,” with its flagship component, The Line, being “radically scaled back.”

These scale-backs and delays come as capital is redirected toward priority projects tied to Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, as well as sectors expected to deliver quicker returns, including logistics, mining, and AI.

Saudi officials expect the fiscal deficit this year to narrow to 3.3 percent of GDP; however, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. project a higher figure in the range of five to six percent.

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

As it’s always done, Russia is expected to ensure its sovereignty, security, and thus its survival through the creative interplay between its political, military, intelligence, diplomatic, expert, and civil society communities.

Russia’s special operation against NATO-backed Ukraine just entered its fifth year.

The last three anniversaries were reflected upon here, here, and here, and keeping with tradition, the present piece will review what happened over the past year and forecast what might be come in the next one.

Generally speaking, Russia now faces five geostrategic challenges that are expected to shape its approach towards the US-mediated peace talks with Ukraine and its grand strategy overall, namely:

* NATO Influence Is Poised To Expand Along Russia’s Entire Southern Periphery

Last August’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) along Armenia’s southern Syunik Province has the dual function of a NATO military-logistics corridor through the South Caucasus to Central Asia. Spearheaded by member state Turkiye with allied Azerbaijan serving as the launchpad across the Caspian, TRIPP threatens to revolutionize Russia’s regional security situation for the worse if these threats aren’t contained, especially if it emboldens Kazakhstan to follow in Ukraine’s footsteps.

* The US Supports The Revival Of Poland’s Long-Lost Great Power Status

“September 2025 Was The Most Eventful Month For Poland Since The End Of Communism” for the 18 reasons enumerated in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, which set Poland up to play a central role in the US’ National Security Strategy for containing Russia after the Ukrainian Conflict ends. It already has the EU’s largest army, is located in the middle of pivotal military-logistics corridors, and is very eager to revive its long-lost Great Power status and attendant historical rivalry with Russia at Moscow’s expense.

* The EU Is Unprecedentedly Militarizing And Upgrading Its Military-Logistics

De facto EU leader “Germany Is Competing With Poland To Lead Russia’s Containment” in no small part through the nearly $100 billion in defense procurement projects that it approved last year alone. The EU as a whole is also militarizing too with the help of the €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan”. To make matters even more concerning for Russia, the “military Schengen” for optimizing the dispatch of troops and equipment towards its borders continues apace, with the Baltic States newly committing to join this too.

* India Seems To Be Undergoing A US-Friendly Grand Strategic Recalibration

India began aligning with some of the US’ interests after their trade deal as explained here, which could eliminate tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Russian budgetary revenue if India does indeed reduce its import of Russian oil like the US claimed that it agreed to. The same goes for India possibly eschewing new big-ticket military-technical purposes from Russia too. This US-friendly grand strategic recalibration might also put more pressure on Russia’s top Chinese partner and therefore reshape Asian geopolitics.

* Poland Now Wants Nukes & Turkiye Might Soon Declare The Same Intent

The US’ decision to let the New START lapse risks a global nuclear arms race. Poland was emboldened to declare its nuclear intentions while RT published a detailed report about how Turkiye might go down this route too. Both are historical Russian rivals, and seeing as how Poland envisages carving out a sphere of influence in Central & Eastern Europe and Turkiye envisages one in Central Asia as was noted above, them obtaining nukes would pose a huge threat to Russia and raise the likelihood of its containment.

The five geostrategic challenges confronting Russia in the fifth year of its special operation are formidable but not insurmountable.

As it’s always done, Russia is expected to ensure its sovereignty, security, and thus its survival through the creative interplay between its political, military, intelligence, diplomatic, expert, and civil society communities.

They might opt to cut a deal with the US over Ukraine so as to focus more on tackling these challenges, but not at any cost, ergo why that hasn’t yet happened.

Authored by Zena le Roux via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

“Supporting the gut microbiome can help reduce colorectal cancer risk and may even enhance prevention and treatment,” Sachin Aryal, gut microbiome researcher at the University of Toledo, told The Epoch Times.

The microbiome has been linked to many aspects of health and has been shown to also play a key role in colorectal cancer.

The good news is that the microbiome is not fixed and that it can be influenced by everyday habits and choices.

How Gut Bacteria Influence Colorectal Cancer

“We’re learning that the bacteria in the gut matter more than we used to think,” Dr. Cedrek McFadden, colorectal surgeon and medical advisor to the Colorectal Cancer Alliance, told The Epoch Times.

Gut bacteria are not just sitting there as bystanders. They interact directly with the lining of the colon, the immune system, and inflammatory processes over time. When the microbial balance is off—a condition called dysbiosis—some bacteria can create a low-level inflammatory state or produce substances that irritate the colon lining. Over many years, that kind of environment can contribute to cancer, McFadden said.

Because the colon is directly exposed to gut bacteria and their by-products, colorectal cancer appears to be more strongly influenced by the microbiome than many other types of tumors, although the microbiome can also affect other cancers indirectly.

“It’s not that one bacterium causes cancer,” McFadden said. “It’s more about the overall balance and what the colon is being exposed to day after day.”

When dysbiosis continues, it can further damage the gut barrier—a condition sometimes referred to as “leaky gut.” The tight connections between gut cells loosen, allowing bacteria and their by-products to move deeper into the gut wall. This keeps the immune system in a constant state of activation and inflammation, Raz Abdulqadir, researcher in microbiome and colorectal cancer at Penn State College of Medicine, told The Epoch Times.

“As a result, inflammatory cells release molecules that increase oxidative stress and can damage DNA in colon cells, raising the risk of abnormal cell growth,” he said.

It’s now clear that gut bacteria influence not only inflammation linked to tumor formation, but also how well the immune system recognizes and attacks cancer cell. This explains why patients with different gut microbiomes can respond very differently to the same cancer treatments.

Bacterial Culprits Identified

Several microbes have been consistently associated with colorectal cancer, including Fusobacterium nucleatum, enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis, Enterococcus faecalis, and certain strains of E. coli, Aryal said.

Fusobacterium nucleatum, for example, is found in much higher amounts in people with colorectal cancer compared to healthy people and is particularly abundant in tumor tissue. Higher levels of this bacterium are also linked to stronger inflammatory signals in the gut and can attach directly to the gut lining using a specialized protein, which helps kick-start cancer-related changes.

“However, we still need well-designed intervention studies to determine whether these microbial changes are true drivers of cancer or simply a consequence of the tumor environment,” Aryal said.

The microbiome’s impact is not only about which bacteria are present, but also what they are doing. Microbial by-products—substances produced by microorganisms such as bacteria as a result of breaking down—and toxins—such as chemicals made by bacteria that can irritate the gut or damage cells—either protect the colon or increase inflammation and DNA damage.

“This is why the microbiome is becoming an increasingly important part of conversations around early detection, prevention, and personalized cancer therapy,” Aryal said.

What You Can Do

Maintaining a healthy gut microbiome is a key factor in preventing colorectal cancer.

Dietary fiber, probiotics, prebiotics, synbiotics—products combining probiotics and prebiotics—and even fecal microbiota transplantation can help rebuild microbial balance and regulate immune and inflammatory pathways, Abdulqadir said.

Focus on Fiber and Whole Foods

From a dietary perspective, the most important step is to consistently follow an eating pattern that supports microbial diversity, especially one rich in dietary fiber. A high-fiber diet that includes fruits, vegetables, fermented foods, and prebiotic or probiotic sources helps maintain a healthier microbial balance and creates a gut environment less supportive of tumor development, Aryal said.

“Incorporating Mediterranean-style eating patterns is especially helpful because they emphasize whole grains, legumes, vegetables, and healthy fats that support microbial diversity,” he added.

Consider Targeted Supplements

Probiotics may help lower the risk of colorectal cancer. One well-studied strain, Faecalibacterium, has been shown in animal research to reduce gut inflammation and protect against colitis.

Other probiotics, including certain Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium strains, help strengthen the gut lining and support healthy cell growth—especially in people with a history of polyps—small growths on the lining of the bowel that can sometimes turn into cancer.

“When probiotics and prebiotics are used together as synbiotics, they help reduce inflammatory mediators and create a gut environment less favorable for tumor development,” Aryal said.

Doses and specific types can vary, so it’s best to talk to a doctor before trying them.

Stay Active

Regular physical activity also plays an important role in optimizing the gut microbiome and lowering colorectal cancer risk, Aryal said.

“Exercise increases microbial diversity, enhances short-chain fatty acid production, and reduces inflammation, all of which help keep the colon healthy.”

Keep It Simple

Gut health doesn’t need to be complicated, McFadden said. His top advice is not to overthink it.

“Eat real food more often. Get fiber in your diet. Cut back on heavily processed foods when you can and don’t chase supplements or trends,” he said.

In his own life, McFadden keeps things simple. He tries to eat balanced meals, stay active, and get decent sleep. He pays attention to stress because of his awareness of its effects on the body, including the gut.

“I’m not perfect, and I don’t expect my patients to be either. I just try to be consistent most of the time.”

The US Central Intelligence Agency has never been shy about letting it be known it is seeking to recruit informants from places like China, North Korea and Iran.

The agency has in the recent past released messages in Mandarin, Korean, and Farsi. As a CIA spokesman once said during a prior recruitment effort, “We want to make sure individuals in other authoritarian regimes know that we’re open for business.”

On Tuesday the CIA issued a special message once again for Iranians in particular, but now the timing is more interesting, given the Trump administration stands on the precipice of deciding on pursuing war or diplomacy with Tehran. He’s also gearing up to give his State of the Union Address, and Iran will be high on the agenda.

The CIA posted to X, Instagram, and other officially verified platforms a video in Farsi which encourages Iranians to contact the agency, while featuring instructions for using Tor and other encrypted methods to ensure anonymity, and so local Iranian authorities can’t uncover the communications.

The CIA in the message while addressing Iranians in the context of the recent anti-government protests stressed the agency “can hear your voice” and “wants to help you”.

According to some of the brief video details:

The video walks viewers through several steps that should be taken to ensure that any contact with the CIA from within Iran will be kept private and to ensure that the identity of the dissident cannot be found out.

It suggests that anyone wishing to contact the CIA should do so from a burner device and using the most up-to-date version of their internet browser of choice.

The person should also use the browser’s incognito mode and clear the browser and device history after making contact, it says.

It also strongly encourages anyone who contacts the agency from Iran to use Tor or a VPN to encrypt the communication, and provides instructions on how to use Tor, warning that without doing so, a visit to the CIA website will be visible to others.

Such outreach efforts, in search of potential future spies, isn’t going to help relations between Iran and the US, given Iranian leaders are already on edge about the biggest Pentagon build-up in the region since the 2003 Iraq war.

Tehran has already accused the protesters of being in league with the US, Israel, and foreign intelligence. This fresh CIA recruitment effort is only going to fuel these suspicions and paranoia further. 

Israel has all the while been even more boastful that it had agents “on the ground” during January’s deadly unrest, which saw thousands of protesters killed, but also resulted a reported couple hundred police and security personnel killed.

In what some have reported could be the longest presidential address in history, President Trump is set to deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term tonight, when he is expected to highlight his administration’s accomplishments and seize the moment to shore up support for Republicans ahead of the critical 2026 elections.

At last count, there were 72 Democrats who had decided to boycott the President’s address.

Historically, the president’s party almost always suffers midterm losses, and the House appears especially vulnerable this year.

Trump, eager to reverse the trend, is set to deliver a lengthy speech promoting the policy wins over the past year (reportedly over two hours).

“It’s going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about,” the president said during an event at the White House on Feb. 23.

In fact, as Polymarket odds show, his speech is expected to last 95 minutes…

This will be Trump’s second speech to Congress since returning to office. He previously spoke to a joint session of Congress on March 4 last year.

While it was not an official State of the Union address, the speech was the longest on record, lasting nearly 1 hour and 40 minutes.

Watch Live (due to start at 9pmET):

*  *  *

President Trump is reportedly planning to outline an unconventional idea for personal and corporate tax cuts that he could implement without Congress.

Bloomberg reports that media figures, including Fox News’ Bret Baier and MSNOW’s Stephanie Ruhle, outlined the details of the closed-door discussion in broadcast appearances, but said they did not have additional details about how the president’s proposal would work. The US Constitution grants Congress sole authority to levy taxes.

Trump has previously floated rebate checks for Americans that would be funded by tariff revenue, but administration officials had said that would require congressional action. Further complicating the proposal, the Supreme Court’s decision striking down his global tariffs could open the door to refunding billions of dollars collected from the duties.

The president is expected to highlight lower gasoline prices and other metrics showing economic gains — as well as the expanded tax cuts he signed into law last year and his Trump Accounts investment program for children. He’ll also point to beneficiaries of his TrumpRx website that allows Americans to directly buy some medicines at a discount, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News on Tuesday.

“The president is, of course, going to tout his administration’s record-setting accomplishments over the past year while laying out an ambitious agenda to continue making the American dream more attainable and affordable for working-class people across the country,” Leavitt said on Fox News early Tuesday.

He’ll also be “making a few new policy announcements as well to continue tackling the affordability crisis that Joe Biden created one year ago.”

Trump could emphasize plans his administration has teased to lower housing costs by barring institutional investors from snapping up single-family homes, and reduce upward pressure on electricity prices by asking technology companies to foot the bill for energy-hungry data centers.

Trump also could unveil plans to create retirement savings plans for adults that don’t already have employer-sponsored 401(k)s, Semafor reported.

Trump on Friday delivered a scathing dressing down of the justices who ruled against his tariff strategy.

A repeat of those criticisms could play out with the Supreme Court justices present. They historically attend the speech and sit feet away from the rostrum where the president delivers his speech.

That’s happened before.

Former President Barack Obama used his 2010 State of the Union speech to criticize the high court’s days-old decision striking down regulations limiting political spending by unions and corporations. But while Obama criticized the ruling — saying it would “open the floodgates for special interests” — he steered clear of personal attacks on the justices themselves, including the six sitting before him that night.

Chief Justice John Roberts later called the episode “very troubling,” and lamented that the annual addresses had “degenerated into a political pep rally,” with members of the president’s party cheering raucously even as stoic justices sit expressionless, upholding a tradition of protocol and decorum.

Separately, the anchors indicated that Trump was likely to address Iran during the speech.

They said the president expressed optimism over the prospect of continued talks – as well as frustration that Tehran has apparently been unwilling to unequivocally rule out building nuclear weapons.

The speech will also mark the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

The address “will celebrate 250 glorious years of our nation’s independence and excellence, highlighting incredible stories of American heroes,” Leavitt said in a statement.

In case you cared, newly elected Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger is slated to deliver the Democratic response to Trump’s speech.

Senator Alex Padilla, a California Democrat, who was handcuffed at a news conference with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, will provide a Spanish-language rebuttal.

Below, The Epoch Times’ Emel Akan lays out five key things to watch at this year’s State of the Union:

Midterms Messaging

With eight months until the midterms, Republicans are working to win voters, especially independents who backed Trump in 2024. The majority of voters are still anxious about the high cost of living, according to recent polls. Trump is likely to prioritize the economy in his speech and talk about what he has done to lower gas, housing, and health care costs for American families.

Luke Nichter, professor of presidential studies at Chapman University in Orange, California, believes that Trump’s primary message will be about the midterms.

“He wants to make sure those enthusiastic supporters are still enthusiastic, they still support him, and continue to turn out this fall,” Nichter told The Epoch Times.

The speech comes on the heels of the Supreme Court’s decision last week that struck down tariffs imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

President Donald Trump acknowledges the audience before delivering his State of the Union address at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, on Feb. 4, 2020. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Trump sharply criticized the justices who supported the ruling and has since pledged to raise global tariffs to 15 percent using other statutory authorities. During a Feb. 20 press conference, Trump said he was “ashamed of certain members of the court.” Hence, his tone and remarks toward the justices in the room will be closely watched during the address.

Trump is expected to make the case for high tariffs, even as some Republican lawmakers have expressed concerns about their economic impact.

Immigration will also be a key topic, as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains shut down due to ongoing disagreement between the White House and congressional Democrats. Trump is expected to defend his administration’s policies while adopting a more measured tone in light of two recent fatal shootings by immigration agents in Minneapolis.

Aaron Dusso, a political science professor at Indiana University, believes that Trump will try to shift the narrative during his speech, especially given recent criticism of the domestic immigration crackdown and declining approval ratings.

“This is going to be an opportunity for him to command attention across the entire country,” Dusso told The Epoch Times.

Foreign Policy Questions

Foreign policy is typically not a major focus in the State of the Union addresses, as presidents usually prioritize domestic issues. Trump’s address may be an exception, Nichter said.

In recent weeks, the administration has stepped up the U.S. military presence in the Middle East to exert pressure on Iran to curb its nuclear program. The Pentagon has dispatched another large aircraft carrier to the region. Amid tensions, another round of talks with Tehran is set for Feb. 26 in Geneva. Lawmakers will be closely watching for any new announcements regarding Iran.

Mexican soldiers patrol in armored vehicles in Acapulco in the aftermath of a military operation in which Mexican drug lord Nemesio Oseguera, known as “El Mencho,” was killed in Jalisco state, in Acapulco, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. Henry Romero/Reuters

In Mexico, a U.S.-aided operation killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, a powerful drug cartel leader, on Feb. 22. Lawmakers and foreign policy analysts will be listening for clarity on the extent of the U.S. involvement in the Mexican military’s operation.

Trump is also expected to highlight his broader efforts to broker peace around the world, crediting himself for ending eight wars.

According to Nichter, Trump may also address unresolved foreign policy issues, including Greenland, Cuba, Venezuela, and the golden dome missile defense system.

Guests in the Gallery

The White House and lawmakers will invite special guests to the State of the Union to highlight their political messages.

Over the weekend, Trump invited the U.S. Men’s and Women’s Olympic Hockey teams following their gold medal victories over Canada.

The women’s team declined the invitation, citing scheduling issues. The men’s team is expected to attend.

Jake Guentzel #59, Tage Thompson #72, Jaccob Slavin #74, Kyle Connor #81 and Jake Sanderson #85 of Team United States listen to the national anthem during the medal ceremony for Men’s Ice Hockey following their gold-medal win over Canada at the 2026 Winter Olympic games at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy, on Feb. 22, 2026. Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Democratic lawmakers have invited several people who say they were victims of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, including Jess Michaels and the family of the late Virginia Roberts Giuffre, to demand legal consequences for those named in the files.

Some Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), will bring constituents to raise concerns about the impact of rising tariffs and health care costs.

Some Republicans are focusing on human rights issues in China. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will host the daughter of Gulshan Abbas, a Uyghur doctor detained in China since 2018. Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) will host Claire Lai, daughter of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai, who is serving a 20-year prison sentence.

Reaction

There have been dramatic moments at past State of the Union addresses, most notably in February 2020, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tore up a copy of Trump’s speech after he finished speaking.

This time, the setting will be different. Seated behind Trump will be Johnson and Vice President JD Vance.

Reactions from Democrats in the chamber will be closely watched. As with previous years, some lawmakers are expected to stage symbolic protests, wearing coordinated colors or displaying signs.

Vice President Mike Pence claps as Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi rips a copy of President Donald Trump’s speech after he delivers the State of the Union address at the Capitol in Washington on Feb. 4, 2020. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

The official response from the Democratic Party will be delivered by Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who won a landslide victory last November and became the state’s first female governor. Her response will air immediately after Trump’s speech.

Yemisi Egbewole, a Democratic strategist and former Biden White House adviser, said that Spanberger’s selection shows the party is changing its strategy by focusing on affordability and moving away from identity issues.

The response is expected to be measured and aimed at voters who are uneasy about Trump as president, even if they sometimes support Republicans, Egbewole told The Epoch Times.

“That is really where Democrats need to hit,” she said.

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger signs executive orders after being sworn into office at the Virginia State Capitol in Richmond, Va., on Jan. 17, 2026. Win McNamee/Getty Images

More than a dozen Democrats plan to skip the speech and attend an alternative event, the “People’s State of the Union” rally at the National Mall in Washington.

Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), as well as Reps. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.), Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Greg Casar (D-Texas), Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), and Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) are expected to skip the address.

Defending the Record

Trump is expected to defend his record and outline his legislative goals in another lengthy address.

He will tout economic milestones, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 50,000 points. He will argue that crime is falling nationwide.

He will also likely highlight reductions in immigration flows at the southern border with Mexico. Trump has previously said that illegal immigration along that border has reached near-zero levels.

A banner showing President Donald Trump at the Department of Justice in Washington on Feb. 21, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The address is also considered a prime opportunity for the president to lay out his legislative proposals. This year, Trump is expected to encourage the passage of the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act, a bill that would require proof of citizenship to vote.

He will also tout his other policies, such as banning male athletes with gender dysphoria from competing in women’s sports.

According to David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in Minnesota, Trump will have to keep his base energized while deciding whether to adjust his tone and message to win back the independent voters who helped elect him in 2024.

Republicans’ chances of holding Congress depend on retaining those swing voters, he told The Epoch Times.

“His base is still mostly with him,” Schultz said. “The question becomes, does he only pitch to the base, or does he try to alter his language and approach to appeal to the swing voters?”

On Tuesday, TOI and other Israeli media featured some photos of American F-22 Raptors taking off from England’s Royal Air Force Lakenheath, which were expected to then fly to southern Israel…

Israel’s public broadcaster KAN has reported that at least 12 US F-22 fighter jets landed at an Israeli air base in the south of the country, connected with the ongoing Pentagon build-up threatening anti-Tehran action.

“Twelve US F-22 fighter jets landed this afternoon at one of the Israeli Air Force bases in the south of the country, as part of the American deployment in the Middle East,” KAN said.

The publication added of what is the world’s most sophisticated and high-tech stealth jet, that it is capable of “penetrating enemy territory and disabling air defense systems and radar installations.”

Local media further described the fighter jets’ presence as in anticipation of potential new attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen. The Houthis had previously, in solidarity with Gaza and Iran, pummeled Israel with long-range drones and ballistic missiles.

These projectiles have at times even reached international airports in Israel, but the launches out of Yemen have quieted down of late, especially once a Gaza ceasefire was finally cemented.

Over in Iran, there are reports of some sporadic protests at universities, but nothing yet near in size to what January witnessed: 

The Iranian government has emphasised that protesting students must adhere to the theocratic establishment’s “red lines” as violent clashes took place inside universities for a fourth day.

Iranian students “have wounds in their hearts” and are angry, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani acknowledged to reporters during a news conference in Tehran on Tuesday, in an apparent reference to thousands killed during nationwide protests in January.

The Iranians are meanwhile still hoping for diplomatic resolution to the standoff, and by week’s close another round of nuclear and peace talks are expected.

Are the F-22s already active in skies over Gaza and the region?

Breaking | A squadron of U.S. F-22 fighter jets is flying over the skies of the Gaza Strip, deploying thermal flares. pic.twitter.com/zjJu90jylA

— غزة 24 | التغطية مستمرة (@Gaza24Live) February 24, 2026