Despite Trump’s promises to bring a swift end to the war in Ukraine by negotiating with Russia, the war has escalated to a dangerous inflection point with long-range U.S., British, and French missiles being deployed deep in Russian territory and talks of deploying NATO troops in Ukraine. That… and anonymous officials in the New York Times saying what is impossible to believe:

“Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications,” the newspaper wrote.

Amid the chaos, ZeroHedge will be hosting preeminent historians Sir Niall Ferguson and Scott Horton to debate the history of the conflict and U.S. policy in the region. They will be joined by the Hoover Institute’s Peter Robinson (if you’ve seen a Thomas Sowell interview, it was probably his).

Join us at 7pm ET right here on the ZeroHedge homepage (as well as Twitter/X and YouTube channels) for an epic matchup that you won’t find anywhere else.

Ferguson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. He’s written over a dozen books on geopolitical and monetary history.

Horton is the founder of the Libertarian Institute and recently published his book, Provoked, on the history of the war in Ukraine and decades of rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia.

We hope you’ll join us on the eve of Thanksgiving. Recent war context included below:

***

Nukes for Ukraine?!

Days ago, The NY Times revealed that US and European officials have discussed a range of options they believe will deter Russia from taking more Ukrainian territory, including the possibility of providing Kiev with nuclear weapons. “US and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire,” the report said.

The article then stated, “Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union.”

Former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Counsel Dmitry Medvedev has responded by pointing out that if the West actually went forward with transferring nukes to Ukraine, this would be seen as tantamount to an attack on Russia. He explained that this is a key aspect of Russia’s newly expanded nuclear doctrine.

In a Telegram post on Tuesday, Medvedev specifically referenced the recent NY Times report, and said: “Looks like my sad joke about crazy senile Biden, who’s eager to go out with a bang and take a substantial part of humanity with him, is becoming dangerously real.”

Medvedev then stressed that “giving nukes to a country that’s at war with the greatest nuclear power” is so absurd that Biden and any of his officials considering it must have “massive paranoid psychosis.”

His biggest and most specific threat came as follows: 

“The fact of transferring such weapons may be considered as the launch of an attack against our country in accordance with Paragraph 19 of the ‘Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence’,” Medvedev wrote.

Talk of NATO Troops

Prominent French publication Le Monde on Monday followed by saying serious discussions over injecting Western troops into the war have intensified in the last days: 

As the conflict in Ukraine enters a new phase of escalation, discussions over sending Western troops and private defense companies to Ukraine have been revived, Le Monde has learned from corroborating sources. These are sensitive discussions, most of which are classified – relaunched in light of a potential American withdrawal of support for Kyiv once Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025.

Britain is once again at the forefront of urging NATO’s deeper involvement in the war, which threatens at any moment to explode into WW3 among nuclear-armed powers. Enter Keir Starmer… in the hawkish footsteps of Boris Johnson:

However, it was relaunched in recent weeks thanks to the visit to France of the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, for the November 11th commemorations. “Discussions are underway between the UK and France on defense cooperation, particularly with a view to creating a hard core of allies in Europe, focused on Ukraine and wider European security,” confided a British military source to Le Monde.

Jean-Noël Barro’s aforementioned words about ‘no options’ ruled out appears to have been a reflection on these continued ‘sensitive’ conversations.

There have been more reports of US-supplied ATACMS launches on Russian territory since their initial use last week:

Looks like Khalino airbase in Kursk, where Russia launches drones to attack Ukraine, just got a taste of ATACMS. The guy in the video seems pretty impressed! pic.twitter.com/ui8r0je74p

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 25, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris, who returned this week from a post-election vacation in Hawaii, told supporters during a call with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Nov. 26 that they still have power, even in uncertain times.

Walz opened the call on Tuesday, calling Trump’s win “a bit scary.”

He added later:

“I hope all of you take care of yourselves, take care of your families, find a place in your community to heal.”

“The outcome of this election, obviously, is not what we wanted. It is not what we work so hard for, but I am proud of the race we ran,” Harris said in the early part of her remarks, as she praised her former running mate.

Harris, 60, said that “the fight that fueled our campaign, a fight for freedom and opportunity … did not end on Nov. 5.” The effort includes fighting for an America where women can get abortions whenever they want, the Democrat said.

She then turned to consoling supporters.

“I know this is an uncertain time. I’m clear-eyed about that. I know you’re clear-eyed about it, and it feels heavy,” she said.

“I just have to remind you, don’t you ever let anybody take your power from you. You have the same power that you did before November 5th, and you have the same purpose that you did, and you have the same ability to engage and inspire. So don’t ever let anybody or any circumstance take your power from you.”

Harris said that her supporters should keep working hard, organizing, and mobilizing.

But, it wasn’t her words that were of note (as usual), it was her appearance as many wondered why Harris looked so haggard and tired given that she has basically had the last three weeks off.

Vice President @KamalaHarris’ message to supporters. pic.twitter.com/x5xMUGTtkz

— The Democrats (@TheDemocrats) November 26, 2024

As Modernity.news reports, Mike Cernovich claimed, Kidding aside. She’s obviously on drugs. That’s why they wanted her. Another puppet.

“Who is the current POTUS? It’s basically Trump now because nobody knows who is officially running the country,” he added.

Kidding aside. She’s obviously on drugs. Thats why they wanted her. Another puppet.

Who is the current POTUS? It’s basically Trump now because nobody knows who is officially running the country. https://t.co/gzzM0C99rD

— Cernovich (@Cernovich) November 27, 2024

Others opined that given Kamala is still the frontrunner to run again for Democrats in 2028, why on earth they thought this car crash was a good idea.

*Kamala Harris threatens to run again in 2028*

The Democrat Party posts this: https://t.co/16V91qN5hf

— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) November 27, 2024

Conservative radio host Tammy Bruce said she had previously dismissed partisan claims that Harris was an alcoholic, but that now she wasn’t so sure.

“I have always resisted the frequent accusation on social media that the consumption of alcohol could explain Kamala Harris’s somewhat odd demeanor when giving a speech, speaking to a group, or even the rare occasion of saying something to reporters,” Bruce posted on X.

I have always resisted the frequent accusation on social media that the consumption of alcohol could explain Kamala Harris’s somewhat odd demeanor when giving a speech, speaking to a group, or even the rare occasion of saying something to reporters. But in this latest video she… pic.twitter.com/EeN1gfJWoz

— Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) November 27, 2024

“But in this latest video she had released to her supporters in the aftermath of her massive fail as a presidential candidate, I will admit it brings up even my concern it’s something is just simply not right here,” she asserted.

“I’m not sure you guys want to be amplifying this. There’s something, ummmm, off with the vice president,” Fox News contributor Joe Concha joked.

I’m not sure you guys want to be amplifying this. There’s something, ummmm, off with the vice president. https://t.co/z6Icm1XVow

— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) November 27, 2024

Meanwhile, it has emerged that Harris campaign internal polling before the election showed she was at best tied with Trump, contradicting public assertions that she was slightly ahead.

This correlates with Kamala’s behavior immediately before the election, when she looked tired, despondent, and defeated.

After two months of declines, US durable goods orders rose 0.2% MoM (SA) in preliminary October data (significantly less than the expected +0.5%). Interestingly, given the recent stagnation, this blip higher pushed orders up 5.3% YoY (NSA) – the highest since Nov 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

On an SA basis, total durable goods orders have basically gone nowhere since March 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Ex-Transportation, orders rose just 0.1% MoM and worse still, non-defense, ex-aircraft orders fell 0.2% MoM (well below the +0.1% MoM expected).

The one very modest silver lining was Capital Goods Shipments Ex Air (a figure that is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government’s GDP report) rose 0.2% MoM (better than expected).

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to 213k last week (from 215k) – the lowest since April 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

However, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, claims hit a four month high.

California was by far the largest single state increase in new claims while New Jersey saw a small decline…

Meanwhile continuing jobless rose to 1.907 million Americans – the highest in three years…

Source: Bloomberg

So, take your pick – the labor market is hot (claims at 7mo lows) or very cold (cont claims at 3 year highs)?

Merde alors, as they say in Paris!!

Amid a battle over the country’s budget and an ongoing fiscal crisis, France’s 10Y yield spread to Germany’s  has soared up to over 85bps – its highest since the European financial crisis – reigniting ‘Frexit’ fears as decoupling of the core countries accelerates…

Source: Bloomberg

The French government risks facing higher borrowing costs as its lack of a majority in Parliament makes it harder to implement spending curbs and tax hikes needed to curb a ballooning budget deficit.

Michel Barnier, right, with Finance Minister Antoine Armand in Paris on Oct. 15

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier said the country faces “storm” in financial markets if an “unlikely but possible” alliance of lawmakers across the political spectrum rejects his government’s budget proposals and votes it out of power.

“There will probably be a rather serious storm and serious turbulences in financial markets” in case of a no-confidence vote, Barnier said in an interview with French TV channel TF1.

“If the government falls, emergency measures will be taken,” which won’t cover full-year expenses. 

Specifically, as Bloomberg reports, the premier’s political survival hangs on whether French far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s will back a potential no-confidence vote when he presents final versions of the 2025 government and social-security budget bills in coming days and weeks.

Le Pen has vowed to bring down his administration if her demands to better protect household purchasing power aren’t met.

Barnier went on TV Tuesday night after his boss, President Emmanuel Macron, reportedly said he believed that Le Pen would carry out her threats, and that Barnier would soon be out. Macron’s office denied he made such comments.

Le Pen has focused her ire on the government’s plan to increase taxes on electricity, to lower reimbursements for medicine, and to postpone the indexation of pensions to inflation.

She has also demanded additional measures on immigration.

In a bid to assuage Le Pen’s party, Barnier said Tuesday that electricity prices will fall by 9% next year, “and we’ll see if we can do more to preserve the purchasing power of the French.”

Le Pen has recently hardened her tone, threatening to topple the government while playing down the negative consequences of a no-confidence vote.

“We could very well come to a situation where the government is again put into jeopardy,” said Greg Hirt, global chief investment officer for multi asset at Allianz Global Investors.

The path to installing a new government remains unclear.

It took months for Macron to appoint a prime minister this summer after losing his majority in the French parliament earlier in the year.

Emergency measures that could be taken by an interim government would prevent “neither a crisis, nor the mistrust of financial markets,” Barnier said.

There could be a new budget bill, “but we don’t have time to lose.” 

“Besides the recent political headlines underscoring that the budget agreement will become difficult and could bring the government down, the macro outlook is also deteriorating quickly,” Christoph Rieger, Commerzbank’s head of rates and credit research, wrote in a note.

France’s finances are about to face scrutiny from S&P Global Ratings on Friday, which could be the next catalyst for market moves, after both Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings gave it a negative outlook last month.

Futures are lower as markets digested Trump’s latest cabinet appointments and looked ahead to a barrage of macroeconomic data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday for clues on the outlook for interest rates. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.2% and MSFT -0.6%).  Treasuries advanced, pushing the 10-year benchmark yield down by five basis points to 4.26% with a slew of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US data expected, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and an update on economic growth. The dollar fell versus all Group-of-10 peers amid month-end flows while the euro rose to a fresh day high after hawkish comments from ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel. Commodities are mixed with precious metals and oil higher, while base metals are lower. Today, the main macro focus will be PCE release and Durable/Cap Goods Orders.

Among individual premarket movers, Dell shares tumbles 12% as revenue generated by the company’s PC business declined 1% in the fiscal third quarter, falling short of estimates. Peer HP also slumped 8% after sales in its PC unit missed the average analyst estimate. Similar to its peer Dell, the firm flagged a delayed PC refresh cycle. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Ambarella (AMBA) climbs 21% after the semiconductor device company issued a stronger-than-anticipated revenue forecast for the current quarter.
• Autodesk (ADSK) slides 7% after the software company posted third-quarter adjusted operating margin that fell short of expectations.
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) drops 3% after the cybersecurity firm’s issued a weaker-than-expected earnings forecast. The outlook disappointing investors who have been watching for signs that the company has recovered from a flawed update that crashed computers around the world.
• Guess (GES) slides 11% after the clothing company cut its full year guidance.
• Nutanix (NTNX) gains 5% after the infrastructure software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
• Symbotic (SYM) sinks 22% after filing to delay its 10-K report.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) jumps 12% after the clothing retailer reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales growth. Citi upgraded the stock to buy.
• Workday (WDAY) drops 11% after the software company provided a forecast that is seen as disappointing. Analysts noted that investor confidence will likely be affected by slowing subscription growth.

Trump’s tariffs agenda gathered further momentum, after the president-elect named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions.

“If we get close to a place where we are talking about across-the-board tariffs, I think that would be a wake-up call for risk assets, equities and credit alike,” Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “We’re risk-on for now, but things could change.”

Investors have plowed money into US stocks this year, with inflows on course for a record and have been rewarded with a gain of 26% in the S&P 500, vindicating bets on American exceptionalism. European stocks are trading at a record 40% discount to the S&P 500 with the region’s benchmark gauge up just 5% this year. That divergence is making global stock market performance ever more polarized and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon, JPMorgan’s strategist Mislav Matejka wrote.

European stocks fall for a second day as traders trim their ECB interest rate cut bets after Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel warned against lowering borrowing costs too far. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.3% with underperformance in auto shares suggesting tariff risks from the US are also still providing a drag. In France, a measure of risk on the country’s bonds rose to levels last seen during the euro-area debt crisis as a political standoff over the budget threatens to bring down the government. The market nerves reflect investor concerns over Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s ability to pass a budget for next year. French bank stocks underperform following the country’s political standoff over budget. Real estate and mining stocks are the strongest-performing sectors. Among individual stocks, EasyJet gains as the airline proposed to more than double its dividend payout for this year amid robust demand for its holiday package offerings. Here are some of the most notable premarket movers:

• Henkel shares climb as much as 4.1% after the chemicals company was upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan, highlighting the stock trades at a sizable discount to peers despite a rebound in earnings this year.
• Anglo American shares rise as much as 2.9% in London after the miner raised 9.6 billion rand ($530 million) from the sale of a 6.6% stake in Anglo American Platinum, a move aimed at increasing the South African unit’s free float ahead of a full exit.
• Ackermans & Van Haaren shares gain as much as 3.1%, rallying from an almost three-month low closing price yesterday, as Berenberg slightly lifts its Street-high target on the Belgian industrial holding company.
• EasyJet shares rise as much as 4.4% to the highest intraday level since April. The travel company more than doubled its annual dividend on the back of a strong demand outlook for next year.
• Idorsia shares soar as much as 28% after announcing talks with an undisclosed party for the global rights to its aprocitentan (Tryvio) drug. The deal would result in a fee of $35 million.
• French bank stocks fall as the risk premium for the country’s government bonds soared to 2012 highs amid a political standoff over the budget, which threatens to bring down the government.
• Grifols shares slide as much as 11% after Bloomberg reported that Brookfield Asset Management is preparing to walk away from a plan to acquire the Spanish drug maker over disagreements on valuation.
• CD Projekt shares drops as much as 3.9% in early trading as 3Q earnings triggered profit taking after strong gains on stock seen in last days.
• Frontline shares fall as much as 12% after the Oslo-listed crude-oil shipper reported 3Q earnings described by DNB as soft on account of a weak 4Q outlook that’s likely to lead to estimate cuts.
• Johnson Matthey shares drop as much as 7%, to the lowest since July 2009, following results from the British specialty chemicals firm which analysts see as mixed.
• Elekta shares fall as much as 7.8% after the Swedish medical technology firm’s 2Q report fell short of expectations on most key metrics. While guidance was reiterated, it requires a big effort from the company in its 2H, analysts note.
• Pets at Home shares slump as much as 9.8% to the lowest level since July 2020 after the company warned that the pet retail market will remain subdued for the rest of the financial year.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained as Chinese shares rebounded after a recent rout, while traders continued to digest the potential impact of US president-elect Donald Trump’s policy plans. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, lifted by Chinese tech giants such as Tencent and Meituan. An index of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong gained 2.6% amid speculation that authorities will unveil more stimulus at key meetings that are expected to take place next month. Elsewhere, stocks dropped in Japan and Taiwan, while Australia and New Zealand saw gains. Korean chipmaker stocks fell after one of Trump’s picks to lead the Department of Government Efficiency called Chips Act subsidies to the industry “wasteful.” Japanese automakers extended declines as the yen strengthened and after US peers fell on Trump’s tariff threats.

In rates, treasuries climb, with US 10-year yields falling 4 bps to 4.27%. Gilts and bunds also gain, although the Schnabel comments did dent German shorter-dated bonds while lifting the euro. French bond spreads widen again, hitting a yield gap to Bunds of 89bps, the widest since the 2012 European debt crisis as a political standoff over the budget threatens to bring down the government. The market nerves reflect investor concerns over Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s ability to pass a budget for next year. Back to Treasuries which hold most of their advance that sent yields toward the low end of two-week ranges, led by UK bond market, the outperformer in core European rates so far. Rally precedes a packed slate of US economic data including 3Q GDP revision, weekly jobless claims and PCE price indexes. A $44 billion 7-year note auction at 11:30am New York time concludes this week’s Treasury supply cycle, which has been well received.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index fell to the lowest this week, snapping a rally that’s propelled eight straight weeks of gains through Friday. The dollar is seen as one of the biggest beneficiaries of Trump’s pro-growth agenda. The euro rose after ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned against cutting interest rates too far. The currency has been singled out as one of the most vulnerable to Trump’s tariff agenda by strategists at Goldman, JPMorgan and Citigroup. The yen tops the G-10 FX leader board, rising 1.1% against the greenback and pulling USD/JPY down to 151.40. The kiwi dollar is not far behind even after the RBNZ cut rates by 50 bps.

In commodities, oil prices advanced as traders monitor the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. WTI is up 0.3% at $69 a barrel. Middle East tensions abated somewhat as President Joe Biden said Israel reached a cease-fire deal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah after weeks of talks mediated by the US. Spot gold adds $15 to $2,648/oz.  Bitcoin rises above $93,000.

The US economic data calendar is busy and includes second estimate of 3Q GDP, October durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), November MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), October personal income/spending with PCE price indexes and October pending home sales (10am). The Fed speaker slate blank.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 6,026.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 503.87
• MXAP up 0.4% to 183.22
• MXAPJ up 0.5% to 579.48
• Nikkei down 0.8% to 38,134.97
• Topix down 0.9% to 2,665.34
• Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 19,603.13
• Shanghai Composite up 1.5% to 3,309.78
• Sensex up 0.3% to 80,232.67
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 8,406.67
• Kospi down 0.7% to 2,503.06
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.15%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.0515
• Brent Futures up 0.5% to $73.20/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,650.62
• US Dollar Index down 0.46% to 106.53

Top Overnight News

• Chinese stocks rallied on Wed as investors speculate a critical upcoming gov’t meeting could result in more stimulus support as Beijing looks to mitigate the fallout from Trump 2.0 trade restrictions. BBG
• China places its defense minister under investigation for corruption (this is the third consecutive serving or former defense minister to face an investigation), although the country’s foreign ministry denied the news. FT
• Sales of foreign-branded smartphones, including Apple’s iPhone, in China fell 44.25% year-on-year in October, according to data from a government-affiliated research firm released on Wednesday. RTRS
• New Zealand’s central bank slashed its policy rate by 50bp to 4.25%, a move widely anticipated by markets. WSJ
• The ECB needs to be wary of cutting interest rates too far as borrowing costs are already near a level that no longer restrains the economy and going lower could backfire, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. BBG
• Trump is preparing to eliminate funding to cities that fail to participate in deportations of undocumented immigrants (he tried to do so in his first term but ran into myriad obstacles). WaPo
• Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah struck a ceasefire agreement on Tues, a move Biden said he hoped would yield a similar settlement w/Hamas in Gaza. NYT
• Business leaders aren’t panicking over Trump’s tariff threats as many consider to be simply a starting point for negotiations rather than the articulation of a long-term policy. WaPo
• Donald Trump’s tariffs agenda gained more momentum as the president-elect named Jamieson Greer, a longtime protégé of Robert Lighthizer, as the US trade representative. Kevin Hassett was picked to direct the National Economic Council, a post that doesn’t require Senate confirmation. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following a somewhat similar performance stateside where the S&P 500 and DJIA posted fresh record highs but the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed amid higher yields owing to Trump’s recent tariff threat. ASX 200 traded higher with strength in gold, consumer discretionary, tech and financial stocks, while mixed data releases also provided some encouragement as monthly CPI printed softer-than-expected, whilst the trimmed mean metric rose and Q3 Construction Work Done topped forecasts. Nikkei 225 underperformed amid a firmer currency and with money markets leaning towards a hike by the BoJ next month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive albeit with gains capped by a lack of major catalysts and as Industrial Profits data continued to show a double-digit percentage drop Y/Y for October although was not as steep as the prior month’s decline.

Top Asian News

• Leaked BYD Letter Signals China EV Price War Is Set to Intensify
• Asian Stocks Rise as Chinese Shares Rebound on Stimulus Hopes
• Seoul Hit By Highest Snowfall in Over 100 years Causing Chaos
• Pony AI Is Said to Raise $260 Million in US IPO Priced at Top
• Vietnam Mogul Told to Refund Missing Billions to Save Her Life
• Philippine VP Duterte Faces Police Charges Amid Marcos Feud
• Yen Erases Post-US Election Drop and Hedging Costs Pick Up
• Volkswagen Sells Xinjiang Sites to Exit Controversial Region
• Prabowo Pick Trails in Jakarta Governor Race in Blow for Leader

European equities are on the backfoot, Stoxx 600 -0.4%, from a macro perspective the main update for the region has come via hawkish comments by ECB’s Schnabel. Sectors are mixed: outperformance in Personal Care, Drug and Grocery names, whilst a pullback in yields has benefitted the Real Estate sector. Tech hit with SAP pressured after Workday numbers. US equity futures are showing a modest reversal of Tuesday’s price action where small-caps lagged peers, ES -0.3%, RTY +0.6%. Focus is very much looking ahead to the day’s raft of tier 1 US data points. US updates from Dell Technologies (-12.6%), HP (-10%), ADSK (-6.3%), CRWD (-5.7%) & Workday (-10%) in focus among others. CAICT says shipments of smartphones in China were up +1.8% Y/Y in October at 29.67mln (prev. -25.7% Y/Y in September). Domestic Chinese brands shipped 18.55mln phones in October (79% of the total), while foreign brands shipped 4.903mln units (-28.7% Y/Y). Shipments of foreign branded phones including Apple’s (AAPL) iPhones within China were down 55.75% Y/Y in October (prev. -39.8% Y/Y), according to Reuters calculations.

Top European News

• BoE’s Lombardelli said US tariffs would pose a risk to UK economic growth and it is unclear what impact tariffs would have on UK inflation, while she added that a tight UK labour market remains a problem and is worried that services inflation remains above pre-COVID levels.
• ECB’s Schnabel says she sees only limited room for further rate cuts, via Bloomberg; estimated range for the neutral rate is 2-3%. Can gradually move rates to neutral, not lower. Shouldn’t go accommodative on rates. Strong preference for a gradual approach. Need to see services inflation come down. Impact of past tightening fading visibly. May not be so far from neutral rates. Economy is stagnating, no recession risk.

FX

• JPY outperforms with USD/JPY down to a 151.23 trough as traders continue to position for a BoJ rate hike next month following the recent fiscal stimulus announcement by the Japanese government.
• As such, the USD has been hampered with the DXY slipping further on the 106.00 handle and down to a 106.33 base thus far. Docket ahead packed given Thanksgiving adjustments to the data schedule.
• EUR firmer, benefitting from general USD downside and bolstered by hawkish remarks from ECB’s Schnabel. Single currency as high as 1.0540, having climbed significantly an overnight 1.0474 base.
• Fundamentals light out of the UK, GBP benefitting from the above USD action and is holding ground against the EUR for the most part thus far.
• NZD a close second to JPY as it stands in terms of best performers, following the RBNZ’s 50bps cut which while as expected saw the unwinding of some outside bets for a 75bps move. NZD topped out at 0.59 vs the USD.

Fixed Income

• Benchmarks in the green. Spent the first part of the European morning at highs though pulled back modestly on hawkish Schnabel commentary. Since, back towards best as the risk tone continues to deteriorate.
• USTs towards their 110-21+ peak, pulled back modestly on Schnabel but only briefly. Docket ahead is packed with PCE the highlight, and will help to inform the view into December’s FOMC, with markets leaning towards a 25bps cut (60% chance) vs unchanged (40% chance) into the releases.
• Bunds came under pressure on a set of particularly hawkish remarks from ECB’s Schnabel; in particular, her remark on not going below the estimated 2-3% neutral rate is at odds with market pricing.
• OATs near the unchanged mark with focus on the domestic political situation after PM Barnier’s remarks around “serious turbulence on financial markets” if the gov’t collapses; as such, the OAT-Bund yield spread has hit 90bps, its highest since 2012.
• Gilts outperform, unaffected by Schnabel, specifics for the UK have been light thus far with the docket ahead also sparse.

Commodities

• Crude modestly firmer in narrow ranges and well within familiar territory awaiting updates around the ceasefire, US data and OPEC+. Holding around USD 69/bbl and USD 73/bbl respectively for WTI and Brent.
• Gold has gleaned support from the tepid risk tone, which has been deteriorating throughout the morning, and softer USD. As such, XAU is at a USD 2653/oz peak with resistance ahead at USD 2673/oz from November 21st.
• Base metals in the green, despite the tepid tone, action which comes as the complex bounces back from Tuesday’s pressure. Thus far, this has taken the likes of 3M LME Copper back to yesterday’s best but shy of the USD 9.1k from Monday.
• US Private Inventory Data: Crude -5.9mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillates +2.5mln (exp. +0.1mln), Gasoline +1.8mln (exp. -0.1mln), Cushing -0.7mln
• Russia may lift the ban on gasoline exports from refineries for two months from December 1st to January 31st, according to Kommersant citing sources.
• Citi Research said its base case is for OPEC+ to delay the unwind of output cuts by a quarter to April 2025.
• JPMorgan forecasts Henry Hub prices at USD 3.50/MMBtu; TTF at EUR 41.75/MWh. Sees NatGas production likely to grow 3bcf/day in 2025 and again in 2026.

Geopolitics

• Hamas says it is ready for truce in Gaza after the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, according to journalist Guy Elster.
• Israel conducted a series of raids on the town of Naqoura in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah announced targeting “sensitive” military sites in Tel Aviv with a swarm of drones in the hours prior to the ceasefire.
• Streams of cars headed to southern Lebanon after the ceasefire came into force, according to Reuters.
• US senior official said they must all focus on making sure Iran does not continue to use Syria as a highway for weapons into Lebanon.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it welcomes the ceasefire in Lebanon and emphasises the responsibility of the international community in effectively pressuring Israel to stop the war in Gaza.
• Syrian state agency reported six people died including two soldiers in an Israeli attack on border crossings between Syria and Lebanon in the Homs countryside.
• Russia’s new missile fired at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last week carried warheads without explosives causing limited damage, according to Reuters citing sources.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications 6.3%, prior 1.7%
• 08:30: 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
  • 3Q Personal Consumption, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
  • 3Q GDP Price Index, est. 1.8%, prior 1.8%
  • 3Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%
• 08:30: Oct. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.5%, prior -0.7%
  • Oct. Durables Less Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%
  • Oct. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
  • Oct. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.7%
• 08:30: Oct. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%
  • Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.2%
• 08:30: Oct. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$102.7b, prior -$108.2b, revised -$108.7b
• 08:30: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 213,000
  • Nov. Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.91m
• 09:45: Nov. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.0, prior 41.6
• 10:00: Oct. Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
  • Oct. Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00: Oct. PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • Oct. PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.1%
  • Oct. Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • Oct. Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
• Oct. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00: Oct. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -2.0%, prior 7.4%
  • Oct. Pending Home Sales YoY, est. 0.2%, prior 2.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As the title of our World Outlook suggests, one of the main themes for 2025 will be how President-elect Trump prioritises his various policies. Indeed since we published, that’s become a little clearer for markets given the announcement of additional tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China we discussed yesterday. As a reminder, Trump said on the Truth Social platform that he’d put 10% tariffs on China, above any additional tariffs, along with 25% on Canada and Mexico on all products. And that led to a very clear reaction yesterday, with the Canadian dollar (-0.58% vs USD) as the worst-performing G10 currency, whilst the Mexican Peso was also down -1.82%. Similarly, the stock markets in the affected countries also underperformed, with Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC down -0.93% even if Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite recovered to just make it to +0.01% after being down -0.48% initially after trading started.

Such tariffs would also have implications for the US though with our economists yesterday estimating that US core PCE inflation for 2025 could increase from 2.6% to 3.7% if fully implemented (link here), albeit with uncertain passthrough assumption that they go through. Before Trump’s victory the assumption was for 2.3% inflation in 2025. On that topic remember that today sees the latest monthly core PCE inflation print with DB expecting +0.29% vs. +0.25% last month. This would take the YoY rate to 2.81% from 2.65%.

Back to the tariffs, clearly at one end of the scale we don’t know how much of the rhetoric is a negotiating tactic, but at the other end we don’t know how other countries might retaliate if it’s not, particularly if that leads to a global trade war. For instance, Mexican President Sheinbaum said yesterday that “one tariff will come in response to another, and so on until we put shared companies at risk”. And we know from both the first Trump and the Biden administrations that others have been willing to react against protectionist policies, so this is set to be a very important part of the outlook for 2025 and beyond. Overnight Trump has nominated Jamieson Greer for the role of Trade Representative which confirms the direction of travel as he served as Chief of Staff under Lighthizer who had the job in Trump’s first administration. He also announced Kevin Hassett to lead the National Economic Council. During the last Trump administration, Hassett was a senior adviser to Trump and the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. He has backed the President-elect’s tariffs proposals in the past.

Despite the tariff threats, US equities held up fairly well yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.57%) advancing for a 7th consecutive session as US exceptionalism continued. That said, those companies more exposed to trade saw a clear underperformance. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (which includes companies publicly traded in the US where the majority of their business is in China) fell -0.84%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was also down -1.21%. Similarly in Europe, the STOXX 600 saw a -0.57% fall, but the automobiles and parts component was down by a larger -1.71%.

One factor that supported US equities yesterday was strong data releases. For instance, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure was up to a 16-month high of 111.7 in November, whilst the expectations component was up to its highest in nearly 3 years, at 92.3. Moreover, there was also an improvement in their labour market indicators, with the gap between those saying jobs were plentiful and hard to get widening for a second month running.

The FOMC minutes from the November 6-7 meeting showed that committee members thought that “ with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2% and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time.” “Many” officials noted that ongoing uncertainty around what the neutral rate should be, “made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually.” That represented an increase after the previous minutes referenced “some” officials. The staff upgraded both growth and inflation forecasts from the prior meeting, this can also be seen from fewer members being concerned with the risk of growth slowing. Last meeting, “most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased,” but this meeting, “some participants judged that downside risks to economic activity or the labor market had diminished.”

Overall, the minutes gave slightly more credence to a rate cut next month with fed futures now pricing a 63% chance. That’s the most in nearly two weeks. The 2yr yield fell (-3.7bps) into the close from an intraday high of 4.2932% just four minutes before the Fed minutes were released to close -1.2bps lower on the day. 10yr yields were less impacted by the Fed minutes, and finished +3.3bps higher on the day at 4.306% but are back around 4.29% in Asia this morning.

Whilst there’s still a question mark about whether the Fed cut rates in December, there’s little doubt among investors that the ECB will continue on the path downwards. That was confirmed yesterday by ECB Vice President de Guindos, who said in an interview published yesterday that if their projections were confirmed, “we will continue making our monetary policy stance less restrictive.” In light of that, yields on 10yr bunds fell back -2.3bps, but there was also a notable widening in spreads across the continent. For instance, the Franco-German 10yr spread moved up to 86.3bps, which is its highest level since 26 July 2012, the day that Mario Draghi delivered the famous “whatever it takes” speech.

A reminder that we have the passing of the French budget coming to a head in the next few weeks with some concern of a government shutdown if it’s not passed. See “Focus Europe: France Budget 2025: Tensions could mount as endgame approaches” (link here) for more. Last night, French Prime Minister Barnier warned that “there will probably be a rather serious storm and serious turbulences in financial markets” if there were to be a no-confidence vote when he presents the 2025 budget. This followed reports, which President’s office Macron later denied, that President Macron expected the government to dissolve.

Elsewhere, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a cease-fire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with President Biden later confirming the ceasefire arrangement and stating that it would start at 4am local time. Brent crude oil prices fell -2.47% intraday around the news before grinding higher into the close to finish down -0.04% to $72.98/bbl yesterday following Prime Minister Netanyahu’s press conference announcing the cabinet vote.

Asian equity markets are mixed this morning and trying to decipher all the tariff related stories. The Nikkei (-1.07%) and the KOSPI (-0.67%) are lower. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are outperforming with the CSI (+0.64%) leading gains followed by the Shanghai Composite (+0.37%) and the Hang Seng (+0.36%). The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.57%) is also seeing decent gains. US stock futures are slightly lower.

In monetary policy action, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the cash rate by half a percentage point to 4.25%. It was the second straight cut of 50bps as the RBNZ seeks to revive the economy now that inflation is under control, making it one of the most aggressive cutters among its western peers. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr indicated that another 50bps cut is coming in February if the economy evolves as expected.

Early morning data showed that Australia’s headline inflation rate remained well within the RBA’s target band in October, as the CPI was +2.1% higher than a year ago (v/s +2.3% expected), holding steady at its lowest level since July 2021. However, the trimmed mean, or underlying inflation rate, came in at 3.5%. In September, that measure was 3.2%.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, US new home sales in October were at their lowest since November 2022, at an annualised rate of 610k (vs. 725k expected). Separately, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index remained at -14 in November (vs. -11 expected).

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the PCE data for October, the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and the preliminary reading of durable goods orders for October. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lane. Finally in the political sphere, the European Parliament will vote on whether to approve the new College of Commissioners.

International travel is seeing a strong recovery post-pandemic, with about 1.3 billion trips recorded in 2023–generating around $1.7 trillion in global tourism spending.

The return of Chinese international travel after the removal of governmental quarantine, was a major boost to international tourism last year and is expected to accelerate in 2024.

UN Tourism predicts that Chinese tourism will continue to increase accelerate this year with the country implementing visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia for a year.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, shows the 10 most visited cities in 2023, based on the total number of international arrivals, according to Euromonitor’s Top 100 City Destinations Index 2023.

Which Cities Were The Most Popular With Tourists?

Two cities in Türkiye made the top 10 list: Istanbul, the country’s cultural and historic capital and the most populous city in Europe, and Antalya, a picturesque coastal city on the Mediterranean coast, famous for its beautiful beaches and luxury resorts.

Türkiye was also the fifth most-visited country in 2023, welcoming 55 million visitors overall.

France topped the list at 100 million international visitors, and is expected to see similar or higher numbers in 2024 due to the Paris 2024 Olympics. Paris was the fifth-most visited city in 2023.

Asian cities like Hong Kong and Bangkok saw the biggest growth in tourists from 2022, having been the last countries to reopen after the pandemic. Hong Kong saw a staggering 2,495% increase in tourists in 2023.

Cancún, one of Mexico’s most popular tourist destinations known for its beaches and luxury resorts, was the only Latin American city to make the top 10. In 2023, the Cancun International Airport captured 48% of all international air travellers in the country.

To learn more about where in the world people are visiting the most, check out this graphic which shows the most visited countries in the world in 2023.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that “A Miami Financier Is Quietly Trying to Buy Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline” if it soon goes to auction in a Swiss bankruptcy proceeding. They described how Stephen P. Lynch has a history of conducting business in Russia and he’s also quoted as saying that “This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era.” That’s true, and it could play a key role in any grand Russian-US compromise.

“Everyone Missed The Most Important Part Of The First Putin-Scholz Call In Two Years” earlier this month after Putin made a pass at Scholz hinting that the last undamaged part of this project could be put back to use if Germany helps de-escalate the Ukrainian Conflict instead of contributing to its escalation. Germany is on the brink of a recession due in large part to high energy costs brought about by its compliance with US pressure to sanction Russia. It’s therefore interested in cheap and reliable energy.

At the same time, Trump is expected to pressure the EU into supporting his trade war against China. This will already be difficult enough to do as it is, especially since China and the EU are about to patch up their electric vehicle dispute and China is the EU’s second largest trade partner. There’s almost no chance that they’ll go along with this if they enter into a recession caused by Germany’s economic downturn. Trump thus has an interest in restoring some of its cheap Russian energy imports as an incentive.

The US would get a cut through Lynch’s ownership of this project, which would also allow America to shut off these imports if Germany enters into too speedy of a rapprochement with Russia, such as if it refuses to continue arming Ukraine or paying for a lot of its reconstruction after the conflict ends. Germany might accept these terms in exchange for the immediate economic relief that it could provide, while Russia might be grateful for the additional budgetary revenue that this arrangement could bring.

It’s an imperfect compromise, but it’s a compromise nonetheless, and it could accordingly play a key role in any grand Russian-US compromise over Ukraine. If Russia doesn’t object to the US controlling some of its energy flow to Germany, then it might also not object to selling some of the critical minerals that it could extract from Ukrainian-claimed territory to the US as well. This complementary compromise could dissuade Trump from escalating the conflict to obtain control over those resources like Zelensky wants.

After all, Russia still sells nickel and titanium to the US in spite of their ongoing proxy war in Ukraine, and India could always serve as an alternative conduit to that market just like it does to the European energy one after they sanctioned Russia if Russia bans the export of these minerals to the US. With this in mind, even if the EU doesn’t go along with Trump’s trade war plans against China, the US could still reap some strategic benefits, though it might have to sweeten the deal through phased sanctions relief for Russia.

Therein lies the guiding principle behind this proposal for a grand Russian-US compromise. The complex interdependencies between Russia and the West, which were explained at length here with regard to why Russia is receptive to resuming ties with the IMF, account for why the abovementioned “politically inconvenient” trade relationships are still in place to this day. Neither has the political will to cut the other off in full because this would be mutually detrimental to their interests.

They might thus agree that it’s better to restore the undamaged part of the Nord Stream pipelines under American ownership while reaching an agreement for Russia to sell some of the critical minerals that it extracts from Ukrainian-claimed territory to the US in order to dissuade Trump from escalating the conflict. The supplementary benefit is that the US could raise the odds of the EU partially complying with its predictably upcoming demands to economically pressure China even if it still ultimately refuses.

Having explained why this arrangement might work, it’s time to share three arguments against it.

• First, the anti-Russian faction of the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies might still be powerful enough to oppose it.

• Second, Russia might accept the cost of lost budgetary revenue from resource sales to the West for reasons of strategic sovereignty.

• And finally, Germany might feel pressured by very vocal anti-Russian EU members like Poland into keeping the pipeline closed.

Reflecting on everything, it’s unclear whether the US will allow Lynch to purchase this bankrupt project if it soon goes to auction in a Swiss bankruptcy proceeding.

They’ll only greenlight it if they feel that it could play a key role in a grander Russian-US compromise, thus requiring Moscow and Berlin to informally signal support of this ahead of time, which could be done through bilateral backchannels. In any case, observers should still keep an eye on this since it’s a low-probability but high-impact scenario.

The UK government is set to review electric vehicle (EV) sales rules through a “fast track” consultation, following pressure from carmakers who argue that current sales targets are too ambitious given weaker-than-expected demand, according to the BBC. 

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds is expected to announce the consultation at the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’ annual dinner on Tuesday.

Under existing rules, EVs must account for 22% of car sales and 10% of van sales this year, with non-compliance resulting in £15,000 fines per vehicle. Manufacturers can offset shortfalls by purchasing credits from EV-focused firms like Tesla or BYD, which critics say disadvantages UK-based manufacturers.

Longtime Tesla skeptic Mark Spiegel responded to the news on X stating: “So now the UK will join the U.S. and EU in killing the need for car companies to buy emission credits from Tesla.”

While EV sales have risen, making up nearly a quarter of registrations in October, industry sources attribute this to heavy discounting, which they claim is unsustainable.

The BBC writes that Reynolds aims to address these challenges in his forthcoming announcement.

Carmakers, including Nissan, have urged Reynolds and Transport Secretary Louise Haigh to make EV sales regulations more flexible, citing risks to UK jobs and investments. Nissan warned the rules threaten the business case for UK manufacturing, while Ford recently announced 800 job cuts, partly due to weaker EV demand.

While committed to Labour’s 2030 target for ending petrol and diesel car sales, the government is open to tweaks in the EV mandate. Options include allowing credit transfers between cars and vans, granting credit for British-made EVs sold abroad, or introducing new incentives for private buyers.

The government seeks industry consensus on changes but insists annual quotas will remain. Haigh emphasized that while “flexibilities” are being considered, the mandate itself “will not be weakened.”

Via Remix news,

A German man who described a judge as “obviously mentally disturbed” — after the judge issued a light sentence to a Syrian who raped a 15-year-old girl — was slapped with a €5,000 fine for “insulting” the judge. This fine given to Paul S., whose name has been changed to protect his identity, was fine almost double the fine given to the Syrian rapist. The Syrian not only did not have to serve prison time but was even complimented during his trial by the district judge for his integration efforts.

The judge in the case issued a suspended sentence, a form of probation, to the 30-year-old Syrian rapist, and he only had to pay his victim the sum of €3,000.

Paul S. wrote an angry email to the district court judge due to the sentence, which he found to be unfair.

🇩🇪🚨 Last year, police in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia arrested 155 suspects in connection with 209 cases of gang r*pe.

A total of 84 suspects were foreign nationals and 71 were German citizens.

At the request of the AfD state parliamentary party, the state… pic.twitter.com/Nc3DwTje1o

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 3, 2024

The penalty issued against Paul S. was later reduced after an appeal, with the man ordered to pay a third of the original fine.

German news outlet NIUS obtained documents related to the case from the Wiesbaden District Court, which showed the prosecutor charged Paul S. due to his email, which was allegedly written in a “defamatory manner.” The man described the judge as “mentally disturbed.”

NEW: 🇩🇪 Foreigners commit 59% of all sexual crimes at German trains and train stations, the latest crime data shows.

Sexual violence crimes have doubled between 2019 and 2024.

Foreigners are 15% of Germany’s population.

(Source: German Federal Police) pic.twitter.com/WQpbyap6Xm

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) November 21, 2024

The rape case originally took place in Osnabrück in 2022 when a drunk 30-year-old Syrian raped a 15-year-old girl who was simply walking home. The judge only sentenced the Syrian to two years’ probation with no prison time.

The judge not only issued the man no prison time, but actually complimented him during his sentencing due to the man’s “positive” development in German society.

The judge said these words verbatim at a rape trial in which the man was convicted: “You are well on your way to becoming a completely normal citizen here.”

The judge the also literally said that the rape intensity was “at the lower end.”

His daughter was murdered by an illegal Palestinian migrant, stabbed 38 times, along with her boyfriend.

17-year-old Ann-Marie is gone, but her father won’t let her memory die. He delivered a message to Olaf Scholz’s face:

“There are parents standing at the grave or coffin of… pic.twitter.com/JDslDGKFA4

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 16, 2024

Germany is increasingly raiding and prosecuting critics of government officials and politicians for “insults.” These insults can be as simple as calling a politician an “idiot,” or in the case of Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the “worst foreign minister ever.”

🚨🇩🇪German police have raided houses and arrested people accused of “insulting” politicians online.

In response to criticism, German Green Party MP Renate Künast says that “anyone who criticizes this is supporting right-wing extremism.”

She is the same Green politician… pic.twitter.com/ZydRDnFxPx

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) November 25, 2024

Free speech advocates say that Germany is veering towards autocracy, where any critic of the government can face police raids and prosecutions. In some cases, courts have overruled these fines and prosecutions in order to preserve free speech rights.

NEW: 🇩🇪 A Bavarian woman who was fined €6,000 in 2023 for calling German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock a “hollow brat” on X has been acquitted after a district court trial.

The woman, whose tweets included comments such as “this hollow brat is a danger to our country,”… pic.twitter.com/UYt9f8MuCs

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) November 25, 2024

Read more here…