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What AI Doesn’t Know – And Why It Matters

What AI Doesn’t Know – And Why It Matters

Authored by Richard Porter via RealClearPolitics,

Artificial intelligence has taken the wired world by storm, but the backlash came almost as fast. Progressives complain of job losses, environmentalists question the ecological impacts of huge data centers, and local activists are clamoring for assurances that household utility bills won’t skyrocket because of the centers’ voracious electricity requirements. Others simply worry that the technology will overwhelm humans’ ability to control it.

At least in part, these reactions stem from the overselling of AI.

AI is super cool, but it’s not superhuman nor is it super intelligent. AI is simply very fast processing of vast amounts of data.

Intelligence, knowledge, understanding and wisdom are all different concepts; the distinction between them elucidates the scope and limits of both human and electronic “intelligence.”

Intelligence is the ability to process information into an internally coherent framework that’s useful and adds or detracts from knowledge to the extent it is more or less accurate. Knowledge is the accumulation of information organized into coherent frames or models that help us understand. Understanding is awareness of the significance, purpose, or meaning of accumulated knowledge.

And wisdom is judgment seasoned by experience and the awareness that intelligence, knowledge, and understanding are limited, inherently flawed, and useful only to the extent they advance a worthwhile purpose.

Nearly 2,500 years ago, the Oracle of Delphi reportedly declared that no man was wiser than Socrates. Socrates claimed to be stunned by this because he was keenly aware of how much he didn’t know. But after talking to others widely acclaimed to be knowledgeable, such as the leading politicians, poets, philosophers, and artisans of his day, he discerned this Delphic wisdom: Those claiming knowledge were ignorant of their own ignorance, whereas Socrates knew he knew nothing.

For this insight, Socrates was put to death for impiety and corrupting the youth of Athens, thereby proving for all time both the foolishness of his accusers’ certainty and the wisdom of Socratic questioning.

This bears repeating today, as we enter the Age of Artificial Intelligence: it’s wise to question the “intelligence” of machines, the “knowledge” they propagate, and our understanding of the significance and limits of the technology.

AI models are amazing and useful despite being incomprehensible to most of us, but AI is not infallible. AI will expand human knowledge and understanding of the world only if and to the extent that human users are encouraged to question AI results, processes, and functions.

People make mistakes, as do the people making and training the machines. Still, people tend to trust machines more than people, especially with respect to processing information that’s harder to process. For example, tennis players have more faith in electronic line calls over human line calls, although that faith in the new technology has been shaken by errors, such as when ball marks are inconsistent with the electronic line calls.

As AI use spreads, people will increasingly rely on AI and trust its results for routine tasks (like Google searches), while most people remain more skeptical of AI results for more complex tasks and do not trust AI to act to handle certain tasks for its users without human intervention.

It’s wise to question AI’s results; errors are common even in routine searches.

Examples of AI errors, hallucinations and political bias are rife. A Northwestern University business school professor of my acquaintance recently asked ChatGPT for advice evaluating investment alternatives. ChatGPT recommended he invest in a particular fund and described in detail that fund’s returns, risks, and assets. When the professor went to invest in ChatGPT’s recommended fund, he discovered the fund did not actually exist; ChatGPT made it all up (a phenomenon commonly referred to as “AI hallucination”). 

Indeed, AI can screw up even mundane tasks: In my research for this piece, a Google AI summary ascribed quotes to Socrates that are not supported by any historical record.

Artificial intelligence – like human intelligence – is prone to error and is not always reliable, but that’s to be expected, especially in a fledgling technology. AI is artificial intelligence, not artificial knowledge, understanding, or wisdom.  AI is a processor, a very fast processor, that organizes and distills information – and organized information is easier to evaluate and use by humans than vast amounts of unorganized information.

Properly understood, AI supplements and does not replace human intelligence, knowledge, or understanding; plus, the limitations and faults within these amazing models remind us that human intelligence is limited, too. Human intelligence imperfectly organizes the imperfect data to which a human has access and frames data in a subjective, not an objective, manner.

Many of us expect the machines that humans make to have “better” intelligence than the intelligence of its human creators – more objective, more comprehensive, more insightful. This is a naïve hope. In one sense, it is “better.” AI organizes more information faster than humans can. But who do they think programmed the thing? Every AI model is regurgitating imperfect information collected, created, and input by imperfect, subjective human beings.

What to make of all this?

First, perhaps the math nerds creating AI are mistakenly training machines to handle information processing on human topics as if human topics are math problems with a specific answer.  Perhaps instead, machines should be trained to suggest questions to consider instead of answers to accept with respect to human inquiries relating to politics, economics, psychology, child rearing, crop science – the full range of arts, humanities, and social sciences.

Second, people training these machines should be explicit about the biases and perspectives being built into how the AI organizes, sorts, and frames information. (My own bias on this topic is that I believe American AI companies should be building AI with quintessentially American framing.) 

Third, AI creators should consider the political, regulatory, and legal risks of “overselling” what AI is and what it can do. For example, should AI creators anticipate a duty to warn users of shortcomings with AI’s results and/or disclaimers of warranties?

Fourth, AI creators need to consider improving the quality of data upon which the systems are being trained, recognizing that many online data sources intentionally mislead to advance political agendas. Perfectly “unbiased” information is impossible to obtain, but some information is more accurate and less biased than other information; trainers should exercise better judgement about data.

The creation of AI large language models is an incredible feat of engineering. It’s quite useful, and will soon be essential, but it is still a product of human invention. As such, we need to recognize that AI is ultimately just the latest, greatest – but still imperfect – implement invented and used by homo sapiens to make life better for homo sapiens.

Richard Porter is a member of the Board of Directors of the Alfa Institute, a platform for ideas, policy proposals and new technology integration pertaining to artificial intelligence

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Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 21:45

Why The Crash Was Delayed

Why The Crash Was Delayed

Authored by Robert Aro via Mises Institute,

Whatever happened to the mother of all crashes that was supposed to arrive when the Federal Reserve began tightening its balance sheet back in 2022? For several years, I’ve been scratching my head, convinced that draining the balance sheet by trillions of dollars should have triggered a systemic banking failure or some other Black Swan event. In the past, crises like Lehman/AIG or the 2020 lockdowns took the blame, when in reality, the root cause was always monetary.

From the peak in June 2022 to the trough in December 2025, the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet shrank by roughly $2.3 trillion. That was the front door. But through the back door, something else was happening on the liability side: the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) was releasing $2.5 trillion of previously frozen private liquidity back into the financial system. 

If Quantitative Tightening (QT) removed liquidity, the RRP added it back… plus interest.

To recap: during QT, the Fed allows its holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to mature. Financial intermediaries repay the Fed, and the Fed literally deletes that money from the system. This is the classic setup that exposes malinvestments, stresses credit markets, and reveals the imbalances described in Austrian Business Cycle Theory

But this time it really was different because of the Reverse Repo Facility.

By mid-2023, the (March 2023) Silicon Valley Bank crisis had passed and the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program was alive and well; then the hikes finally tapped out. Eventually, the 1-Month (4-Week) Market Yield on U.S. Treasuries outpaced the Fed’s RRP rate, and the incentive changed. Fund managers began a stampede out of the Fed’s facility and rotated into T-bills to chase a higher risk-free return.

In less than two years, the RRP withdrawals injected around $100 to $200 billion+ a month into the financial system at its peak. This was effectively a backdoor stimulus program that bypassed the Fed’s official QT narrative and funded the government’s deficit. Correlation does not equal causation, but it’s also not surprising that the Dow Jones broke out to new highs at almost the exact moment the RRP began to unwind.

The system was running on stored liquidity thanks to a giant buffer accumulated during the pandemic stimulus era. But as of 2026, that buffer is gone. The RRP liability has flatlined at essentially zero, meaning that the trillion-dollar offset to QT has been fully exhausted.

Perhaps it was no coincidence that once the RRP hit empty, the Fed’s tightening ended. On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced it would begin Reserve Management Purchases (RMP’s) at a pace of approximately $40 billion per month. While they use Fedspeak to avoid the term Quantitative Easing (QE), in reality, they’ve returned to official balance sheet expansion. They are being forced to replace the lost RRP liquidity with fresh money printing.

The math remains staggering. Since June 2022, the Fed was slashing its balance sheet by embarking on a QT narrative. The result? A net liquidity injection to the tune of $200 billion. And they called it “tightening.”

With the RRP buffer now empty, we are entering uncharted territory. The Fed’s $40 billion a month balance sheet expansion is several times less than what was entering the system via the RRP drain. Ironically, what the Fed hopes will act as QE might feel more like QT. We are about to find out just how long the system can survive a true monetary contraction.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 20:55

US Army Trials Unmanned Hunter Wolf Robot With Gun, Radar In Combat Drills

US Army Trials Unmanned Hunter Wolf Robot With Gun, Radar In Combat Drills

The U.S. Army is quietly putting armed robots through their paces alongside real soldiers – and new footage suggests these machines could soon be a regular sight on tomorrow’s battlefields.

Wolf-X robotic combat vehicle by HDT Global.Blade HDT

Fresh imagery dropped on Monday by the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service shows a Hunter Wolf unmanned ground vehicle rolling with the 101st Airborne Division during a full-on combat simulation at the Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC) in Louisiana. The display amounted to a serious stress test in one of the Army’s roughest training environments – where ideas either prove they work or get ditched fast.

The Hunter Wolf’s appearance at JRTC marks a significant shift – as units aren’t just playing around with unmanned gear in isolated experiments anymore; they’re dropping it straight into realistic, chaotic scenarios. Elements of the 101st used the vehicle for logistics runs and security tasks throughout the exercise. Photos show it fitted with a remotely operated .50-caliber machine gun, which hints that the Army is testing it for more than just hauling supplies—it’s being eyed for actual tactical roles too.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A post shared by HDT Global (@hdtglobal)

The Hunter Wolf was originally picked up under the Army’s Small Multipurpose Equipment Transport program to take some of the crushing load off soldiers’ backs. But at Fort Polk, they ran it with a remote weapon station and EchoShield radar, turning it into a rolling set of eyes and teeth. The combo lets a unit push sensors and firepower forward without putting troops in the open. The robot can scout ahead, scan for threats, and even lay down fire while the soldiers stay under cover.

At the same time, it still hauls the basics – ammo, water, batteries, comms gear – so small units can stay mobile and supplied across wide, contested spaces. In today’s fights, logistics and security are blurring together anyway. A robot that can do both fits right in.

Defense analyst Teoman S. Nicanci (Army Recognition Group) points out that the real story here is the Army choosing a high-intensity training rotation like JRTC instead of a safe, staged test. It shows they’re serious about folding this tech into actual formations and missions, not just checking boxes.

For units like the 101st, where speed and mobility are everything, these unmanned platforms help keep that edge without burning out the troops or exposing them unnecessarily. Future battles are going to be packed with drones, artillery, and precision strikes—anything that cuts risk while keeping the pressure on is worth its weight.

Bottom line: the Hunter Wolf isn’t science fiction anymore. The Army is learning, right now, how to weave robots into the fight so soldiers can move faster, hit harder, and come home safer.

h/t Interesting Engineering

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 20:30

IMF Warns Australia Set For One Of Highest Inflation Rates In Developed World

IMF Warns Australia Set For One Of Highest Inflation Rates In Developed World

Authored by Rex Widerstrom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Australia is on track to have one of the highest inflation rates in the developed world.

Australian dollars coins in Melbourne, Australia, on April 4, 2024. AAP Image/Joel Carrett

In the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook, the global lender said economies around the world “face repercussions [from] the direct impact of higher commodity prices, indirect second-order effects on inflation expectations—which tend to be especially sensitive to energy and food prices—and amplification effects coming from [conservative] sentiment in financial markets.”

While the global economy had withstood “a series of shocks, yet another one—this time a military conflict engulfing the Middle East since the end of February—is testing this resilience,” the IMF warned.

It predicted that Australia’s GDP growth would remain flat this year at 2025’s level of 2.0 percent and would fall in 2027 to 1.7 percent.

Those figures are lower than previously projected, down from 2.1 percent for this year and 2.2 percent for next.

While that will be a consideration as Treasurer Jim Chalmers drafts his next budget for delivery on May 12, even more alarming is the forecast for inflation, with the consumer price index at 4.0 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2027.

Those inflation figures exceed those of most advanced economies, including the United States (3.2 percent in 2026 and 2.1 in 2027), the UK (3.2 and 2.4), Germany (2.7 and 2.3), New Zealand (3.1 and 2.3), Japan (2.2 and 2.3),

Australia’s unemployment is also expected to be stubborn, at 4.2 and 4.3 percent respectively.

IMF Calls for Less State Intervention in Economy

Prior to the outbreak of the Iran War the IMF had intended to revise its growth forecasts upwards, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil and gas facilities reversed the positive momentum and raised the prospect of a major energy crisis, according to IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in a press briefing.

Under a “severe” scenario, in which an extended conflict results in greater damage to energy infrastructure, global growth would fall to 2 percent in 2026 and be perilously close to a global recession.

“What should we avoid?” Gourinchas asked.

Price caps, subsidies, and similar interventions are popular, but they distort prices. They’re often poorly designed, hard to unwind, and extremely costly,” he said.

“Most countries don’t have that luxury anymore. Where support for the most vulnerable is needed, targeted and temporary measures should be deployed, consistent with medium‑term plans to rebuild fiscal buffers and avoiding stimulating demand where inflation is rising.”

Government Stimulus a Mistake: Experts

Two experts spoken to by the Epoch Times said they were unsurprised by the IMF’s forecasts.

While declining to offer his own forecast of GDP, John Quiggin, professor of economics at the University of Queensland, said he agreed that the Australian Labor government’s cut to fuel excise was “giving the wrong signals.”

The only merit is that it is temporary,” he said. It is due to end in 3 months.

Graham Young, executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, said the government was giving “a masterclass in how to repeat the 1970s and 80s and turn a price increase into an inflation increase.

On its own, the oil price will redirect spending largely from non-essentials to fuel, but if the government tries to soften the hit, and they do that without corresponding savings somewhere else, then it will turn into inflation,” he explained.

He cautioned that further pressure on  inflation would occur if the Australian Council of Trade Unions is successful in its bid to increase the minimum wage by 5 percent without a corresponding rise in productivity.

“Wage increases without productivity increases are almost always inflationary first and deflationary second as they put businesses out of business, increase unemployment, and contract the economy,” Young said.

He recalled how interest rates were “probably not high enough to kill inflation” in 1975 and so were progressively raised until the peak in 1989/90.

“Our rates are better placed at the moment than in the 70s, but not by much,” he said.

Graph showing the relationship between the Consumer Price Index and home loan rates in Australia. Courtesy of Graham Young, of the Australian Institute for Progress

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said, at a speaking event in the United States on April 14, that inflation expectations were rising in the short term, but remained anchored long term.

“Our estimate is that the supply capacity of the Australian economy at the moment probably can only grow at about 2 percent,” he told New York University guests.

“By the third or fourth quarter of last year, inflation began to pick up, and is now around 3.5 percent on core and nearer 4 on headline, which is too high.

It’s obvious that inflation is going up in the short term, and people are very conscious of that. There’s not much monetary policy can do about that, other than prevent it from getting into long-term inflation expectations. The big question for us is what it’s going to do to [business] activity … Those are the numbers we’re crunching through at the moment.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has left for Washington D.C., to discuss the economic crisis with international counterparts, including the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, and Chinese Finance Minister Lan Foan at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings.

The IMF report showed it was “a dangerous moment for the global economy,” Chalmers said. “We’re weighing all of this extreme uncertainty as we prepare a budget focused on resilience and reform.”

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Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 20:05

DOJ Launches Investigation into Sexual Assault Allegations Against Eric Swalwell

DOJ Launches Investigation into Sexual Assault Allegations Against Eric Swalwell

The U.S. Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into multiple sexual assault and misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), federal officials confirmed Thursday, marking the latest escalation in a scandal that has already forced the longtime congressman to resign from the House and suspend his bid for California governor.

Swalwell, who represented California’s 14th District since 2013, stepped down from Congress on Tuesday amid bipartisan pressure and a House Ethics Committee probe into claims that he engaged in sexual misconduct, including toward a staffer under his supervision. The Ethics review is expected to close following his resignation, as the panel’s jurisdiction is limited to current members.

The DOJ’s involvement adds a federal layer to ongoing local probes. The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office is investigating an alleged 2024 sexual assault in a New York City hotel room involving a former staffer, while the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department and District Attorney’s Office have opened inquiries into a separate 2018 claim. Prosecutors have been assigned to review evidence in the LA case.

The allegations first gained widespread attention last week when the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported claims from a former staffer and three other women. The former aide accused Swalwell of sexually assaulting her on two occasions: once in 2019 while she was employed by him, and again in April 2024 after a gala event in New York, where she said she was too intoxicated to consent and attempted to refuse. Three additional women described unwanted explicit messages, unsolicited nude photos, and harassment, some occurring during his gubernatorial campaign.

On Tuesday, a fifth woman, Lonna Drewes – a Beverly Hills-based former model and fashion software entrepreneur – held a news conference to detail her accusations. Drewes alleged that in July 2018, after meeting Swalwell socially and believing they were developing a friendship, he invited her to his West Hollywood hotel room under the pretense of picking up papers. She claimed he drugged her drink, raped her, and choked her until she lost consciousness. Drewes said she had only one glass of wine that evening and provided authorities with journal entries, texts, and photos as evidence. She has since reported the incident to law enforcement and stands with the other accusers.

Swalwell has categorically denied all allegations of non-consensual or illegal conduct. His attorney called the claims “false, fabricated and deeply offensive.” In a statement announcing his resignation, Swalwell acknowledged “mistakes in judgment” from his past but maintained that no laws or House rules were violated. He said he would fight the accusations while stepping aside to avoid distracting from his constituents’ needs.

Political Fallout and Special Election

The swift collapse of Swalwell’s political ambitions stunned observers. He had been viewed as a frontrunner in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. He suspended his gubernatorial campaign on Sunday as the allegations mounted and bipartisan calls for his resignation or expulsion grew. Democrats, including House leaders, distanced themselves, while some Republicans pushed for an immediate expulsion vote.

Newsom has scheduled a special election to fill Swalwell’s seat: a primary on June 16 and general election on August 18, 2026. The resignation was formally read into the House record this week.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 19:40

CBP Says It Seized More Than 60 Pounds Of Cocaine From US Citizen At Border

CBP Says It Seized More Than 60 Pounds Of Cocaine From US Citizen At Border

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers at the U.S.–Mexico border prevented more than 60 pounds of cocaine from entering the country, allegedly smuggled by an American citizen—a “trusted traveler”—the agency exclusively told The Epoch Times on Wednesday.

At California’s San Ysidro Port of Entry, a 25-year-old man was arrested on April 7 for allegedly concealing more than $1.1 million of the illegal narcotics within his vehicle and now faces federal prosecution.

The man was not named by CBP.

He was categorized as a “trusted traveler” because he was a participant in the Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection program, the agency said. The program allows expedited passage into the United States for pre-approved, low-risk travelers. All applicants for the program undergo an extensive background check and an in-person interview prior to being enrolled.

Despite having qualified for expedited treatment, the man was referred for a secondary inspection while entering the United States.

“Trust, but verify,” the agency said.

Illegal narcotics hidden in the driver’s vehicle doors are shown, at the San Ysidro Port of Entry on April 7, 2026. Border Patrol agents seized more than 60 pounds of cocaine from a U.S. citizen. U.S. Customs and Border Protection

During the secondary inspection, CBP said it used non-intrusive imaging technology that revealed “anomalies” within the doors of the driver’s 2020 Honda Civic. A canine team additionally alerted officers to the presence of narcotics.

According to CBP, officers discovered 20 packages containing 27.28 kilograms, or 60.14 pounds, of cocaine. The drugs, vehicle, and two cellphones were seized.

The driver was arrested and faces charges of narcotics importation and smuggling, CBP said.

“This arrest is a clear message that no one is above the law,” San Ysidro Port Director Mariza Marin said.

“We will hold everyone accountable for their actions, especially those who betray the trust of our traveler programs by attempting to smuggle dangerous narcotics.”

This latest encounter comes as the Trump administration delivered 11 straight months of zero releases at the southern border, while CBP is making increased illegal narcotics seizures across the country compared to a year prior.

Nationwide, CBP seized more than 65,000 pounds of drugs in March, which included 613 pounds of fentanyl. Compared to March 2024, that total amount is 27 percent higher.

Border Patrol agents seized more than 60 pounds of cocaine from a U.S. citizen. The illegal narcotics were hidden in the driver’s vehicle doors, on April 7, 2026, at the San Ysidro Port of Entry. U.S. Customs and Border Protection

The agency said it has seized 24 percent more drugs this fiscal year through March than it did during the same time period for FY 2024.

Comparing similar figures extending into President Joe Biden’s administration, CBP seized 19 percent more illegal narcotics so far this fiscal year than it seized, on average, during the same period in each of the last four fiscal years, according to the agency.

To date in FY 2026, data showed CBP has seized a total of 341,000 pounds of drugs.

The agency counts all drug types, including cocaine, ecstasy, fentanyl, heroin, ketamine, khat, LSD, marijuana, methamphetamine, and other drugs. CBP also reports drug seizures from the southern border, northern border, coastal areas, and interior.

In February, CBP exclusively shared with The Epoch Times that it had prevented more than 660 pounds of methamphetamine, worth about $6 million, from illegally entering the United States. The drug bust came from a single commercial truck at the World Trade Bridge in Laredo, Texas.

Only days before that encounter and at the same Laredo entry point, federal officers seized 36 pounds of cocaine worth about half a million dollars. CBP said it was enough for 190,000 lethal doses.

A CBP spokesperson noted that the drug seizure metrics on its website do not include illegal narcotics seized from joint operations, such as the U.S. Coast Guard or local law enforcement, when another agency would take possession of the drugs.

“In addition to what Border Patrol and [the Office of Field Operations] has seized, which is above and beyond what has been seized in years prior, there’s also these additional activities that stop it before it even gets to the border,” the spokesperson previously told The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 19:15

Space Nuclear Power Initiative Sends Reactor Companies Flying

Space Nuclear Power Initiative Sends Reactor Companies Flying

An announcement from the administration’s Science and Technology Director, Michael Kratsios, regarding the establishment of the National Initiative for American Space Nuclear Power sent reactor development companies higher over the following trading days. 

Oklo and NuScale have been soaring…  

Investors are betting on reactor development companies being involved in multiple different nuclear-related applications in space missions to include propulsion, shuttle electrical power, and power for bases on the moon and Mars. The question stands, though, as to which developer actually has a chance of being involved in any of these programs?

For those not tracking, outer space has some slightly different environmental factors to consider compared to the surface of the Earth. Multiple physics headaches including low or zero gravity create headaches that prevent certain reactor designs from ever having a hope of operating in extraterrestrial settings

Additional problems, like not having a readily available heat sink like a large body of water nearby, creates compound difficulties for some of the more traditional reactor designs. 

Earlier this year, the administration began talking about putting reactors on the moon by 2030. We provided some details to our readers about what nuclear companies they should expect to be involved in the process. 

Relying on the opinion of Mr. Market is likely not the best idea in a technical scenario. Instead it’s best to just look at the last attempt that was made at operating reactors on the moon and derive assumptions from those that were previously involved in the program. 

NASA originally made attempts to develop lunar power by working with companies like Lockheed Martin, BWXT, Westinghouse, X-energy, and Boeing. Through their coordinated efforts, the leading designs for the project pointed to high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) utilizing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel. Given the physics of the universe haven’t changed much over the past few years, it’s safe to assume the reactor of choice for the latest space initiatives will likely also be a HTGR. 

So who is making HTGRs today? Currently, in the publicly traded space, there is Nano Nuclear and Terra Innovatum. X-energy is another likely candidate for the program, and they recently submitted their S-1 to begin the process to execute an IPO later this year. 

Terra Innovatum has yet to make any announcement regarding the extraterrestrial application of their SOLO reactor design, but Nano Nuclear’s Loki reactor is specifically marketed for environments like outer space

BWXT is also likely to be involved to some extent due to their extensive experience working with NASA in the areas of nuclear propulsion. Additionally, BWXT is one of only two manufacturers that is able to produce TRISO fuel in the US. 

If anything, the pump across the board for nuclear names should be less attributed to their potential for involvement in NASA’s missions and more attributed to the wider adoption and acceptance of nuclear energy across multiple applications besides just powering the grid

It is a very straightforward conclusion that only certain reactor designs can operate in space. Companies like NuScale and Terrestrial Energy will almost certainly be excluded due to the physics of operating off of Earth
 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 18:50

California Offering Taxpayer-Funded Gender Surgeries To Homeless, Illegal Immigrants: Report

California Offering Taxpayer-Funded Gender Surgeries To Homeless, Illegal Immigrants: Report

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

The California government may struggle to provide basic housing for the homeless, but it appears willing to fund gender-transition procedures with taxpayer dollars, including illegal aliens, according to a new report.

A Wednesday report from City Journal found that San Francisco homeless shelters, with the assistance of state and local governments, are facilitating transgender surgeries for males who identify as female.

One such shelter, St. Vincent de Paul’s MSC-South, entered into a $66 million contract with the city to house homeless individuals, including illegal aliens.

A pair of Honduran nationals living at the shelter, Lyca and Alondra, reportedly identify as transgender, and both said they receive Medi-Cal, California’s taxpayer-funded Medicaid program.

According to City Journal, the taxpayer-funded program covers transgender procedures, or “gender-affirming care,” and provides “full-scope” coverage to illegal aliens.

Lyca, who reportedly showed signs of a sex change, said he is receiving cross-sex hormone therapy.

Meanwhile, Alondra, who appeared more masculine in physique, said he entered the U.S. illegally after claiming asylum. A translator told City Journal that Alondra declined a housing offer due to affordability concerns, though the government offered to pay one month’s rent.

Another shelter, the Embarcadero SAFE Navigation Center, reportedly houses a transgender-identifying individual named Jacqueline.

Originally from Mexico, Jacqueline told City Journal that illegal aliens reside at the shelter and said he received breast implants through Medi-Cal.

Jacqueline claimed to be a permanent resident but acknowledged that the program also covers procedures for illegal aliens.

“Even though you’re undocumented, you can get them,” he stated, as quoted by City Journal. “You have to have a process, the hormones … go through therapy.”

Asked whether he had received so-called “bottom surgery,” Jacqueline replied, “I’m waiting for that one.”

Headline USA reached out to MSC-South for clarification, including whether such procedures are facilitated by the shelter, but a front-desk receptionist said no one was available to comment.

When pressed further, he added, “We’re busy right now, boss man.”

Attempts to contact the Embarcadero SAFE Navigation Center were unsuccessful, as its main line appeared disconnected. Five Keys Housing, the shelter’s parent company, was closed when Headline USA called.

A Newsom spokesperson stood by the state’s taxpayer-funded program, saying, “Undocumented Californians don’t get special treatment. Everyone on Medi-Cal gets the same access to care. If you want to call California woke for not letting politicians interfere with doctors – or not wanting people to die in the streets – then go ahead.”

The City Journal report comes as California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration faces mounting scrutiny over potential exploitation of taxpayer-funded programs, from hospice fraud to the expansion of taxpayer-funded gender procedures for illegal aliens.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 18:25

Gulf Shock May Spark Shortage Of World’s Most Critical Industrial Chemical, Used Heavily In Mining 

Gulf Shock May Spark Shortage Of World’s Most Critical Industrial Chemical, Used Heavily In Mining 

Goldman analysts Kyle Shaffer and Amanda Ross provided clients with a broad overview of industrials and natural resources amid energy disruptions in the Gulf area. In the note, they stated that the well-known Gulf energy shock is set to disrupt LNG production in Qatar for years to come. However, they also highlighted another emerging supply crunch that has received far less attention: sulfuric acid.

“Some long-lasting consequences have also started to emerge, including a 3-5 years production loss for LNG facility in Qatar, a 6-12 month re-starting time for some aluminum facilities in the Gulf, and shortage of sulfuric acid which can potentially impact future production for copper and lithium” Shaffer and Ross said.

About a third of the world’s sulfur comes from the Gulf region, where it is produced as part of oil and gas refining. Much of the sulfur is exported, primarily to fertilizer and industrial-processing hubs in Asia, North Africa, and, in Qatar’s case, some trading hubs across Asia and Europe.

Goldman analyst James McGeoch noted on Wednesday that Shandong sulfuric acid prices are soaring and that China is “slated to suspend sulfur exports from May (sulfur that is a by-product of processing).” He added that part of the recent push to procure and process concentrate is to produce sulfur for fertilizer.

It is important to note that sulfuric acid is one of the world’s most important industrial chemicals, used in fertilizers (phosphates), oil refining, lead-acid batteries, and chemical manufacturing.

Prices in China have jumped 90% since the start of the US-Iran conflict in late February. Current prices exceed the highs recorded during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

“Already though, prices have risen, and if there’s a shortage of sulfuric acid, that could quite quickly translate into more expensive homes, cars and electrical products,” Bloomberg analyst Sebastian Boyd noted.

In the mining sector, sulfuric acid is critical for the extraction of several key industrial metals, including copper, nickel, uranium, cobalt, and zinc. Sufer is not just for fertilizer to feed the world; the mining sector could also face major impacts if shortages materialize.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 18:05

Trump Says ‘Probably, Maybe’ Iran Talks To Resume This Weekend, ‘Not Sure’ About Ceasefire Extension

Trump Says ‘Probably, Maybe’ Iran Talks To Resume This Weekend, ‘Not Sure’ About Ceasefire Extension

Summary

  • Trump says “probably, maybe” Iran talks resume this weekend, “not sure” about ceasefire extension.

  • Trump unveils 10-day Lebanon ceasefire, but which Hezbollah has not signed on for, amid heavy IDF attacks on south. BBG reports on potential 6-month timeframe for comprehensive Iran deal, oil spikes.

  • Iran seeks to boost rial through toll payment scheme; vessels pay Hormuz passage through Iranian banks.

  • US Navy: vessels seeking entry into Hormuz Strait now fair game for boarding, search, and outright seizure – including for suspicion of ‘contraband’.

  • Hegseth: US forces are ready to restart combat if Iran doesn’t agree to a deal & strait blockade to continue for as long as it takes. Already 14 ships have been turned around.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Yes 70% · No 31%
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Trump Still Signals Ambiguity on Peace/Ceasefire Potential

President Trump appeared to confirm ceasefire talks with Iran are still very up in the air, saying that he also doesn’t see the need to extend the current two-week ceasefire – “not sure,” he said – also amid the going US naval blockade of Iranian-China oil exports, or other sanctioned vessels. With no extension, the ceasefire will expire on April 22.

“If there’s no deal fighting resumes,” Trump affirmed in fielding reporters’ questions. Importantly, talks and timeline are still a big maybe:

President Trump told reporters the next in-person talks negotiating a deal for Iran will “probably, maybe” happen this weekend. He didn’t say where, and other U.S. officials haven’t confirmed any details.

He took the opportunity in the same remarks to slam the Pope. “If the pope looked at the 42,000 people that were killed over the last two or three months, as a protester, with no weapons, no nothing,” he claimed, using the same unsourced numbers he’s lately been throwing around.  “I mean, you take a look at that, so I can disagree with the pope. I have a right to disagree. I have a right to disagree with the pope.”

The president added, “The pope can say what he wants. And I want him to say what he wants. But I can disagree. I think that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. If they do, the whole world would be in jeopardy, the Middle East would blow up and the whole world would be in jeopardy.”

“This is the real world, it’s a nasty world,” he said. “But as far as the pope and saying what he wants, he can do that.”

And on the newly declared Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which does not include Hezbollah, Trump told reporters: “I responded to this call and agreed to a timeout, or rather a temporary ceasefire, of 10 days to try to advance the agreement that we began discussing with the ambassadors’ meeting in Washington.” He added: “For these peace talks, we have two fundamental demands: one, the disarmament of Hezbollah. Two, a sustainable peace agreement, peace from strength.”

Gulf, European officials See Needing 6 Months for Iran deal: BBG, Oil Spikes

A big headline out of Bloomberg has sent oil prices higher:

Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe, according to officials from the regions familiar with the matter.

The leaders want the vital Strait of Hormuz opened immediately to restore energy flows and are warning in private that a global food crisis may develop if that doesn’t happen by next month, said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private talks.

But important caveats remain: who are these “some” Gulf and “European leaders” – the latter who have remained far to the sidelines during this crisis, but who are yes still suffering the effects of the ultra-risky Operation Epic Fury Iran war gambit by Trump. Spike in crude…

Trump: Truce in Lebanon

President Trump has announced an apparent Lebanon breakthrough, announcing on Truth Social that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. This just after on Thursday Israel launched at least 50 airstrikes in a matter of two hours on South Lebanon, according to national media. Israel says late Thursday its forces have no plans to withdraw ground troops from Southern Lebanon. Operations there look to continue, but presumably the ceasefire means Beirut might not be hit in the interim

This week, Rubio oversaw historic peace talks between Lebanese officials and the Israeli government; however, which did not include Hezbollah. Both Tehran and Hezbollah have insisted that the Lebanon conflict should be resolved through the Pakistan mediated US-Iran process. The Lebanese government has little actual sway over Hezbollah, the country’s single most well-armed and influential paramilitary organization, which has more missiles and arms than even the national army. This means it remains a big unknown whether this 10-day truce will hold. Trump’s Truth Social message, which claims he solved “9 wars across the world” and a “lasting peace”:

Defiant Iran Reasserts Toll System: Paid Through Iranian Banks

An Iranian parliament official has been cited in newswires as saying the country’s planned Strait of Hormuz toll for ships seeking to pass is to be paid through Iranian banks. Previously it was said to be through cryptocurrency, and could be as a high as $2 million Oil rose higher, given this is another indicator this game of chicken in the narrow waterway could soon lead to fresh hostilities, despite the 2-week ceasefire still being in place, soon to expire.

As for negotiations, there’s optimism another round of US-Iran talks will occur, with both sides having agreed in principle, but Iran’s government informed Pakistan that the US must back off its maximal demands.

Reuters: U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal and are instead seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return ​to conflict, two Iranian sources told Reuters.

Below is a machine translation from the Persian of the fresh parliament statement via state-linked ISNA:

  • The plan to consolidate Iran’s sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz is being framed as a way to strengthen the rial.
  • Iran is seeking a regulatory role in the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most sensitive chokepoints -positioning it as oversight, not disruption or blackmail.
  • Under the plan, foreign ships would settle accounts through offices in Iran or via the Iranian banking system, a move aimed at boosting the rial.
  • Estimated current revenue from managing and regulating maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz: $10-15 billion.

Boarding, Search, & Outright Seizure

Ships seeking to enter the Hormuz Strait already sanctioned by the US just got a lot more vulnerable: under Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports, they’re now fair game for boarding, search, and outright seizure, per US Naval Forces Central Command.

“In addition to enforcing the blockade, all Iranian vessels, vessels with active OFAC sanctions, and vessels suspected of carrying contraband, are subject to belligerent right to visit and search,” the notice said, referring to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. “These vessels, regardless of location, are subject to visit, board, search, and seizure.”

The definition of “contraband” is broad and expansive. It spans weapons, ammunition, combat aircraft, and military electronics, WSJ has described. “Petroleum products and lubricants are conditional contraband due to their essential role in military operations and their contribution to Iran’s war-sustaining economy,” the advisory also said. “Contraband is defined as goods that are destined for an enemy and that may be susceptible to use in armed conflict.”

US Marine Corps image

Up until now, the blockade – initially rolled out Monday – was limited to ships moving in and out of Iranian ports, but the definition who can be targeted just widened. Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Wednesday that in the first 48 hours, not a single ship made it past the blockade.

Hormuz Blockade: ‘As Long As It Takes’

The US will maintain a naval blockade of Iran for as long as it takes, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has stated in a press briefing Thursday. He and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine say that US forces are ready to resume major combat operations at a moment’s notice, which suggests the initial two-week ceasefire could get extended, as was widely reported the day prior. But this also suggests that Washington likely has no appetite for resuming major aerial operations directly against Iran anytime soon.

On the question of resumption of major combat operations, Hegseth warned: “To Iran, choose wisely. I pray you choose a deal which is within your grasp for the betterment of your people and the betterment of the world.” He followed with, “In the meantime, the War Department is locked and loaded.” Additional main highlights to the Hegseth/Caine update and presser:

  • Iran likes to say it controls Strait of Hormuz but it has no navy
  • Energy industry not destroyed ‘yet’, US blockade shutting down exports
  • For as long as it takes, we will maintain blockade
  • Launching operation ‘economic fury’
  • Iran is digging out bombed out launchers
  • I hope you choose a deal which is within your grasp

But again, the chief takeaway is that the Pentagon and Trump administration are making clear that US forces are ready to restart combat if Iran doesn’t agree to a deal. On that front, US officials say future talks are likely to be held again in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. Prior reports have indicated both sides have “agreed in principle” to engage in another round of talks.

Iran’s PressTV touting ability to inflict global economic pain…

Pentagon: 13 Ships Turned Around

Since the blockade went live, US forces have already turned around 13 ships, according to Gen. Caine in the same briefing. He underscored how far this reach extends, saying operations will take place “inside Iran’s territorial seas and in international waters.”

Officially, the Pentagon claims the blockade is limited – targeting Iran’s ports and coastal areas while sparing vessels simply passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In practice, however, the net is touted as much wider, as US forces “will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran,” including so-called “dark fleet vessels carrying Iranian oil,” Caine added.

He confirmed that more than 10,000 service members are now involved in the blockade, but with more US servicemembers en route to the region.

Lebanon Still Bombed Heavily by Israel amid US Ceasefire Efforts

Israeli jets pounded Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon Thursday, unleashing one of the heaviest barrages there since the war began and sending black smoke billowing over the region. Strikes hit near the industrial zone and a supermarket on Nabih Berri Avenue, with nearby suburbs also taking damage, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency.

Iran has signaled urgency on de-escalation, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf calling ceasefire in Lebanon “as important as a ceasefire in Iran.” He described, “In the Islamabad negotiations and afterwards, we have been seriously pursuing efforts to compel the adversaries to establish a permanent ceasefire in all areas of conflict.” Pakistan’s army chief is in Tehran mediating between Washington and Tehran.

Lebanon’s leadership is in th emeantime framing any truce as a gateway to talks, despite Hezbollah having rejected direct talks with Israel. The ceasefire it is “demanding with Israel” would be a “natural entry point for direct negotiations,” President Aoun said, adding: “Lebanon is keen to halt the escalation… so that the targeting of the innocents ceases, and the destruction of homes” stops.

Destruction of Al-Qasimia Bridge in Southern Lebanon

He stressed negotiations “are to be undertaken by the Lebanese authorities alone,” and said “the withdrawal of Israeli forces… is an essential step,” alongside redeploying the army “up to the international borders” to “end any manifestation of armed presence.”

And yet Israeli strikes are now hitting infrastructure. A key bridge over the Litani River near Qasmiyeh – linking Tyre and Sidon – was reportedly destroyed, though Israel said it only “struck adjacent to it.” The broader campaign is cutting off southern Lebanon, targeting chiefly Hezbollah positions, Israeli officials have claimed.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/16/2026 – 16:00