Big Oil CEOs Say Middle East Conflict, U.S.-China Tension Are Biggest Risks To The Industry
When it comes to the price of oil, geopolitical volatility is usually a tailwind. However, when it comes to what big oil CEOs worry about the most, these conflicts – including the ongoing ones in the Middle East – are top of the list, according to a new report from Bloomberg.
Oil executives are meeting at the region’s largest energy conference amid high market volatility, the report says. Rising tensions between Israel and Iran, an OPEC member, have traders wary of possible supply disruptions, while China’s weak economy is slowing oil demand growth.
Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations remain uncertain, since President-elect Donald Trump has pledged significant tariff hikes on China if elected.
BP Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss commented: “The conflict in the Middle East is probably the top risk of all right now. We operate across five or six countries in the region — we are worried obviously about the security of our people and the security of energy supplies.”
Shell CEO Wael Sawan added that “what happens on the US-China axis” is also a concern. He added: “We fundamentally believe the world will need more energy and we fundamentally believe it will need different forms of energy.”
Executives on Monday expressed confidence that oil demand will keep growing, despite Asia’s economic slowdown, necessitating continued investment to meet supply needs even as the world shifts toward cleaner energy.
Bloomberg reports that CEOs voiced mixed views on demand, with some anticipating strong growth despite a cooling Chinese economy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand to peak before 2030, while OPEC and Saudi Aramco remain optimistic, especially with recent Chinese stimulus.
Petronas CEO Muhammad Taufik believes demand will continue beyond 2030, though price volatility hinders investment, potentially pushing futures higher, noted Eni’s CEO Claudio Descalzi.
A survey by the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University reported findings that won’t surprise anyone who’s been paying attention. Among Millennials and members of Generation Z, fully one-in-three individuals suffer from some kind of mental disorder. Anxiety, depression, substance abuse, and suicidal thoughts afflict them, and the mental problems frequently manifest in physical symptoms.
That’s not the evidence of the Research Center study, though. The mental health numbers above come from federal government agencies, which the Center cites in order to set up its attachment of these emotional pains to another factor, a cause rarely considered by public officials in charge of data collection and population surveys. Here is how the Center and its staff led by George Barna put it:
“… Barna and his colleagues suggest that addressing those conditions may not require counseling, hospitalization, drugs, or other common remedies.
“The research instead indicates that those are often symptoms of an unhealthy worldview …”
That’s the assumption, a close relationship between a person’s general worldview and a person’s emotional state. A 20-year-old who thinks the world is a cruel habitat, that the world doesn’t care about individual human beings, that people are selfish and life is hard… that 20-year-old will feel the effects of that pessimism. He embraces a nihilism about the world that will recoil upon him and bring him down, that will include him in the negative judgment. If he thinks that climate change will bring devastation to the earth in the next 30 years, he loses hope and wonders what to do with his life. If he doesn’t trust other people, he can’t form solid and affirming relationships. Emotional agonies are inevitable.
Data that the Center has gathered add support to the assumption. Consider these results:
Seven out of ten individuals under 40 years of age who responded to Center questionnaires stated that they “lack a sense of purpose and meaning in life.”
Only 13 percent of Generation Z and 22 percent of Millennials believe that “absolute moral truth exists and is an objective reality.”
Given those dispiriting beliefs, we shouldn’t shake our heads at the malaise and panic of the young. In former times, thinkers such as Friedrich Nietzsche and Martin Heidegger described such regrettable attitudes in terms that combined the philosophical and the psychological, for instance, “ontological insecurity” and “metaphysical discomfort,” which they understood as peculiarly modern diseases. Those traits are still with us, Barna et al. insist, and they run in two directions, outward and inward. That life has no purpose slides smoothly into “I have no purpose.” To think that moral truth is a relative or subjective thing only is to deny oneself a reliable foundation of judgment and conviction. Young Americans are fractious and fragile, and who can avoid that condition in a world so utterly careless and capricious.
The daily experience of average 16-year-olds only reinforces the negative worldview they bear. The videos they watch, the music they hear, the texts and photos that flood their phones, the movies and TV shows they favor—it’s a wave of entertainment that shows people behaving badly with no moral accounting. These media allow for no transcendence and no organized worship, no prayer or devotion. They are the bricks of youth culture, which doesn’t revere the past or envision a happy future. No deep meanings and profound truths. The producers of it purvey shallow ideas and emotional chaos. We have handed the rising generations an environment hostile to their souls.
The mental problems of 21st-century youth are real. Our methods of treating them are pharmacological and therapeutic, wholly individualized. These procedures are often incomplete.
We should add to the mix the exploration of a wayward youth’s worldview, and the modification of it should that worldview prove discouraging and depressing.
What a teen assumes about human existence at large affects daily mood and will, the head and the heart. It’s a warning to parents. Give your children a stable moral habitat. Teach them a meaningful past and a hopeful future. If they rebel against your vision, so be it, but you will make that rebellion itself meaningful by presenting to them something meaningful to oppose.
The depression and anxiety, in some cases at least (a not insignificant portion, I believe), are a sane response to bad influences and cynical perceptions. Youth culture is itself unhealthy, and Americans coming-of-age need to be cured of it.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
As the rush to try and save its economy via stimulus continues, China is simultaneously looking to shake down its citizens for unpaid taxes.
Chinese authorities are urging wealthy individuals and corporations to conduct “self-inspections” to ensure all taxes are paid, as the country seeks to boost revenue, according to an FT report out this week. This push for compliance may further impact investor confidence in China’s economy, the world’s second largest.
Beijing is set to announce a major fiscal stimulus aimed at stabilizing local government finances, which have been strained by debt and delayed payments, the report notes.
Economists hope this new phase, building on efforts from September, will boost investor and household confidence after prolonged deflation linked to the property crisis.
With China’s third-quarter growth falling below the 5% target, recent tax demands have caused concern and even “fear” among wealthy individuals in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, according to a local tax advisor.
One China-based tax partner said: “Some of them simply didn’t really know what to declare when they were asked to conduct self-inspections. Many also didn’t realize before . . . [that] their overseas personal gains would be subjected to taxes in China.”
FT reports that companies completing self-inspections have been instructed to submit stamped confirmations and keep records for potential review, according to a city notice seen by the Financial Times. Authorities are also asking individuals to pay back-taxes on overseas investments, sometimes citing a rarely used 2019 law.
A lawyer noted that wealthy clients can negotiate with tax officials, allowing some flexibility in tax obligations. This revenue drive, including increased fines on the private sector, comes as local and central governments seek funds amid a three-year property downturn that has strained finances.
Government land sales fell nearly 25% in the first nine months of this year, and tax revenue dropped 5.3%, leading to a 2.2% decline in fiscal revenue to Rmb16.3tn ($2.3tn).
Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis, concluded: “China’s fiscal deficits have reached a tipping point. There is more urgency to find alternative revenue sources . . . and taxing the wealthy and some companies creates a less direct economic impact on most residents.”
The U.S. Air Force is considering revamping its operations in the Pacific to address increasing challenges from communist China. Rather than focusing solely on expensive fighter jets, it is shifting toward cost-effective technologies such as drones and hypersonic missiles and adopting dispersed operational tactics to maintain an advantage.
A recent report from the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute highlights the need to update equipment priorities to counter China’s military expansion. Lessons from the Russia–Ukraine war have shown that modern conflicts consume resources rapidly, making reliance on a limited number of costly weapons impractical. To prepare for prolonged engagements, developing advanced yet affordable weapons is crucial.
Long-range precision strikes and the use of drones have emerged as game-changers, allowing forces to remain effective while avoiding heavy enemy fire. Dispersed operational tactics have also proven advantageous, helping forces preserve strength and counterattack effectively. With these insights, the U.S. Air Force is preparing for potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, which could be more extensive and intense than the Russia–Ukraine war.
China seeks to alter the global power balance and push U.S. forces out of the Indo-Pacific using anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies. These involve the use of missiles, aircraft, and naval defenses to block access, making it costly or difficult for opponents to access contested regions.
To counter this, the Air Force think tank recommends focusing on inexpensive, easily replaceable weapons capable of penetrating defenses, such as low-cost drones and hypersonic missiles. While advanced aircraft such as the B-21 bomber and next-generation fighter jets remain important, there is increasing emphasis on survivable, high-tech weapons and expendable platforms.
Air Base Defense
A significant concern is the vulnerability of U.S. air bases in the region, particularly in Japan, which Chinese missiles, drones, and hypersonic weapons could target. The Department of Defense (DOD) noted in its 2023 China Military Power Report that the People’s Liberation Army has consistently expanded its long- and mid-range ballistic missile capacity, enabling it to target critical U.S. military installations throughout the Indo-Pacific, including key bases on Guam.
Additionally, the DOD estimates that as of May 2023, Beijing possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, with numbers growing. Given China’s expanding missile capabilities, strengthening base defenses alone is insufficient. Therefore, the United States is adopting a new strategy: spreading out deployments to reduce risk.
The U.S. military is repositioning its forces across multiple locations to reduce the risk of being targeted. This strategy involves identifying, upgrading, and restoring airfields throughout the Pacific, including old World War II sites, under an initiative known as Agile Combat Employment. This includes redeveloping airfields like the one on Tinian, a small island near Guam that was a strategic location during World War II.
The airfields in Tinian are being expanded for the first time in decades. By positioning aircraft across a range of bases—including allied bases, remote islands, and civilian runways—the Air Force aims to increase flexibility and survivability.
Michael P. Winkler, the Pacific Air Force’s deputy director for air and cyberspace operations, emphasized the need to avoid putting all aircraft in one place to prevent creating a “big, juicy target” for adversaries. This strategy requires access to more airfields during crises, necessitating coordination with regional allies like Japan and the Philippines.
Operational Resiliency
Securing access agreements with regional allies is crucial, as they are in a position to offer numerous military and civilian runways, although not all meet the Air Force’s requirements. U.S. pilots are visiting potential locations like Basa Air Base in the Philippines and airfields in Tinian, Guam, Saipan, and Palau to familiarize themselves and prepare for future operations. Upgrades are underway at several sites to enhance facilities and train personnel.
While the Second Island Chain, which includes some U.S.-controlled areas, is easier to access and upgrade, the First Island Chain is strategically more important due to its proximity to China. This chain includes Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Operating there requires cooperation with regional partners, whose political situations can be unpredictable. Despite these challenges, the United States currently maintains strong partnerships in the region.
Recent military exercises have tested this dispersed approach. In February, U.S. and allied aircraft operated from multiple airfields on Guam, Saipan, and Tinian. During the U.S.-led Valiant Shield exercises in June, U.S. fighter jets used Japan’s Matsushima and Hachinohe bases for the first time. Under the U.S.–Japan alliance agreement, Japanese bases can serve as evacuation sites for U.S. aircraft in emergencies.
However, spreading out forces presents challenges, particularly in logistics. In a conflict, the United States must deliver equipment, spare parts, fuel, munitions, and support personnel to scattered and potentially contested locations or pre-position supplies there. This is complex, and the strategy’s effectiveness depends on reliable support. The Air Force must balance the benefits of dispersion with logistical practicalities.
On a similar note, Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, said operating from more locations with smaller units reduces the chance of a successful large-scale attack by the Chinese regime, adding a layer of deterrence.
This strategic shift reflects a broader recognition that the nature of warfare is changing. The Air Force is adapting by embracing new technologies and tactics, prioritizing flexibility, resilience, and cost-effectiveness. By dispersing forces and investing in advanced yet affordable weapons, the Air Force aims to maintain its edge in a rapidly evolving security environment.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
Dave Smith: Will Trump Be Able To End The War In Ukraine?
At a recent pre-election speaking and podcast event, comedian and Libertarian political commentator Dave Smith expressed his view that it is very realistic that the next President Donald Trump could successfully negotiate an end to the Ukraine war.
Smith’s view is optimistic, as he articulated that he believes Trump’s expressed desire to end wars in Ukraine and Gaza is genuine. But Smith also laid out that much depends on who Trump puts around him in top national security positions. Below is the hard-hitting segment featuring the prominent commentator addressing the question: will Trump be able to end the war in Ukraine?
PBD: Will Trump be able to end the war in Ukraine?
Dave Smith: Yes, If he listens to Tucker Carlson, Bobby Kennedy, and Vivek Ramaswamy, but not if he picks Mike Pompeo, Liz Cheney’s pick for Defense Secretary, or John Bolton, Hillary Clinton’s pick for National Security Advisor pic.twitter.com/1f5kQZQEW4
Below are Dave Smith’s words from the segment on Trump and Ukraine below [emphasis ZH]…
“Why the hell are we even expanding our military alliance to Ukraine? And listen, Donald Trump always says that the war ‘never would have happened if I was president, and I would negotiate an end to this.’
And I gotta say I think he’s right about that. I don’t think the war would have happened if he was president – I think he will negotiate an end to it.
I don’t think he’s right that Hamas wouldn’t have attacked Israel if he was president – that seems kind of ridiculous to me. But he’s right: the Ukraine war could be over tomorrow if American wanted to negotiated a peace to it.
Vladimir Putin has been trying to the entire time…
Well the question becomes who does Donald Trump put around him? If Donald Trump puts Mike Pompeo, aka Liz Cheney’s pick for Defense Secretary… if he puts John Bolton, aka Hillary Clinton’s pick for national security adviser – then maybe not, maybe it doesn’t happen.
But if he listens to Tucker Carlson, and ‘Bobby’ Kennedy, and Vivek Ramaswamy, and all the smart people around him – then yes, he could negotiate an end to that war.”
Trump Derangement is the Stupidest Political Phenomenon of My Lifetime, and Its Idiot Propagators Need to be Shoved Into a Forgotten Corner of the Culture Forever
Spare a thought for them, America.
Liz Cheney is probably being executed by that firing squad as you read this, and Molly Jong-Fast is undoubtedly already on her way to the camps, and the cities are emptying as the brave survivors sew diamonds into the lining of their coats and set off on foot for political asylum in Canada. What time do we get the first delivery of handmaids, Vladimir?
So.
The dismal cabal of hysterical adult children that makes up the alleged American cultural “mainstream,” the responsible people you see on television and in the op-ed pages — Anne Applebaum, Tom Nichols, Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Adam Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, Joe Scarborough and his idiot wife, Jonathan Capehart, Max Boot, Jen Rubin, David French, Bill Kristol, Ruth Marcus, Nicolle Wallace, Dana Bash, and on and on, all of them completely interchangeable, one set of asinine talking points with a series of different faces sewn on the front —has spent the last year or ten descending into a urine-soaked psychotic tantrum. They don’t know anything, they don’t understand anything, they don’t say anything of value, they don’t contribute anything, ever, and their voices are ubiquitous. Living in this media environment is like living in a place where the air is made of manure.
They have absorbed no lesson. This morning, the media is full of warnings about fascism and white nationalism and VLADIMIR PUTIN!!!!!!!, a wall of empty noise in response to the rejection of a wall of empty noise. Ruth Ben-Ghiat is still the Dumbest Professor in America™, by the way, and just a profoundly indecent human being:
The lesson of last night is that Trump “has declared war on the US.” You disgusting braindead pig.
The unifying reality about these soulless, mindless, worthless people is that they have no history to them, and that goes double for the history professors. How many times have you heard, for example, that the January 6 insurrection was the worst act of political violence in America since the Civil War, and how many times have you heard any of the people who made that ritual claim deal with any of the obvious examples that disprove the claim — the Colfax Massacre, the Ludlow Massacre, the bombing of the Oklahoma City federal building, the bombing campaigns of the Weatherman and other radical groups in the early 1970s, the wave of political assassinations in the late-1960s, and on and on — in any way?
Related, all of their history is LITERALLY ADOLF HITLER, but you have to eventually notice that their constant demands for guardrails on the discourse and rules for social media never deal with any American history, any history of the place they think they’re talking about: the Adams administration and the Sedition Act, the military arrest of Clement Vallandigham for an anti-war speech, the Wilson administration’s arrest of anti-war activists, and so on. People who have no history but Hitler have no history.
So in the end, they say things, but they don’t think about the things they say. At all. Their very loud voices aren’t attached to any form of cognition. The Potemkin village of our media-academic-political class barely sustains the facade. It’s nothing. They have nothing, they are nothing, the offer nothing.
Here’s the lede: “Donald Trump doubled down Friday on his disturbing comments about placing Liz Cheney in front of a firing squad.”
Chevy Chase, Maryland, Nov. 6
Here’s the part of the story that describes the terrifying threat to murder an opponent with a firing squad:
“She’s a war hawk. She kills people. She wanted uh, even in my administration, she was pushing that we go to war with everybody,” Trump said.
“And I said that if you ever gave her a rifle, [indistinguishable] if you ever do that, she wouldn’t be doing too well.”
“If she had to do it herself, and she had to face the consequences of battle, she wouldn’t be doing it. So it’s easy for her to talk, but she wouldn’t be doing it,” Trump continued. “She’s actually a disgrace.”
You see, people are handed rifles when they’re shoved up against the wall to be executed by a firing squad, and being killed by a firing squad is an example of facing the consequences of battle. Makes total sense.
These are not good people. They’re stupid, dangerous, empty, and a threat to any form of public knowledge. They deserve to have derision howled in their ugly faces for the rest of their worthless lives.
Hurricane Rafael Revs Up To Cat. 2 As Gulf Oil Rigs In Crosshairs
Hurricane Rafael intensified to a Category 2 storm on Wednesday morning and may reach Cat. 3 strength on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale by evening. Rafael’s cone of uncertainty shifted further west than previous forecasts (read: here & here), putting offshore oil/gas rigs at increased risk across the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center in the US said Rafael was just southeast of Havana and packing winds around 100 mph, making it a Cat. 2 storm. The storm is expected to strengthen into a Cat. 3 storm, unleashing “life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding” across west and central Cuba.
“Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days,” NHC’s Dan Brown wrote in a forecast.
The current trajectory of the storm puts about 1.55m b/d of oil production at risk, according to Bloomberg calculations of data from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the NHC.
More from Bloomberg about potential storm impacts on US Gulf area oil/gas assets:
Rafael also threatens to cross leases that produced 1.59b cf/d of gas, 29k b/d of condensate
Rafael direction has shifted eastward
US oil production could be cut by 3.1 million to 4.9 million barrels if hurricane reaches Category 2 status: Mansfield Energy
Oil and gas platforms that are within the cone of the storm include:
Once Rafael arrives in the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico, computer models do not clearly agree on trajectory.
Global + Hurricane Models
GFS Ensembles
GEPS Ensembles
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” NHC noted.
For now, Rafael’s trajectory and intensity should be closely monitored as computer models are still subject to change.
Biden-Harris DoJ Reportedly Winding Down Trump Criminal Cases
Special Counsel Jack Smith, overseeing two federal cases against former President Donald Trump, has considered a possible pathway to end the cases, according to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke to NBC News. This news from the MSM outlet comes hours after Trump won the US presidential election.
Here’s more from NBC News:
The latest discussions stand in contrast with the pre-election legal posture of Special Counsel Jack Smith, who in recent weeks took significant steps in the election interference case against Trump without regard to the electoral calendar.
But the sources say DOJ officials have come to grips with the fact that no trial is possible any time soon in either the January 6th case or the classified documents matter—both of which are mired in legal issues that would likely prompt an appeal all the way to the Supreme Court, even if Trump had lost the election.
Now that Trump will become president again, DOJ officials see no room to pursue either criminal case against him—and no point in continuing to litigate them in the weeks before he takes office, the people said.
The outlet continued:
The sources said it will be up to Smith to decide exactly how to unwind the charges, and many questions remain unanswered. Could the prosecutions resume after Trump leaves office or would they be time-barred? What happens to the evidence? What about the two other defendants charged with helping Trump hide classified documents? Will Smith write a report, as special counsels usually do?
The sources say all those issues require study and research.
At the same time, Trump’s legal team is weighing their own next steps for how to resolve the outstanding federal cases in the former president’s favor now that he is the projected winner of the election. The ultimate goal is to get all of the federal and state cases wiped out completely — the strategic call is how best to accomplish that task, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
If the Trump side, for example, moved again in court to dismiss the charges in Washington for election interference, then the Justice Department could use its legal response to explain its position on not moving forward with that case.
As a reminder, Axios noted that there are four separate federal and state cases that involve Trump:
New York hush money case: Trump was convicted in May on all 34 felony counts in his New York criminal trial, for falsifying business records to cover up a payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.
Georgia election interference case: The sprawling racketeering case has been on hold since July, pending a legal battle over whether prosecutor Fani Willis should be removed from the case. Oral arguments are set for December 5th.
Federal January 6th case: Special counsel Jack Smith’s criminal case over Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election is on hold while Judge Tanya Chutkan decides how much of the case can proceed in light of the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling.
Federal classified documents case: The federal case, which was filed in Florida, was dismissed in July after Judge Aileen Cannon ruled Smith had been unlawfully appointed. Smith appealed the dismissal.
The former president has stated that he intends to end the federal criminal cases once he returns to the White House.
Surprisingly, the Biden-Harris DoJ may move first, well ahead of January 20th.
Smith’s prosecutions ended with the 270th Electoral College vote secured around 2 a.m. Wednesday. His unrelenting efforts to convict Trump and then, when prevented from holding a trial, to release damaging material before the election have collapsed with the blue wall in the Midwest.
Trump has said he plans to fire Smith on Day 1. That means the end of both the January 6 and the classified documents cases.
That leaves James and Bragg as residue of long-forgotten lawfare battles, but even there Trump’s prospects look good.
James was able to secure a fellow lawfare warrior in Justice Arthur Engoron, who imposed a grotesque $455 million in fines and interest.
Unlike Engoron, the appellate judges expressed great skepticism in September over the size of the penalty and even the use of this law.
Trump faced half a billion dollars in penalty in a case where no one lost a dime, and the alleged victim banks wanted more business with Trump and his company.
Separately, there is a hearing scheduled in front of Judge Juan Merchan for Nov. 11 on the “hush money” case involving Stormy Daniels, and a possible sentencing on Nov. 26.
If Merchan seeks to jail Trump, it is unlikely to be carried out, as Trump appeals the case and the many alleged errors committed by the judge.
Merchan made an utter mess of a case that should never have been filed, let alone tried. Even commentators like CNN’s senior legal analyst, Elie Honig, have denounced the case as selective prosecution and unfounded.
The case should result in a conditional discharge with no jail time if Merchan can resist the temptation to unjustly punish Trump, a level of restraint that has largely proven difficult for him in the case.
Merchan created layers of appealable errors in the case. Putting those alleged errors aside, any sentencing to jail would create its own constitutional conflict with Trump’s performance of his federal duties.
The question is whether the election will bring a moment of sobriety for New Yorkers who have spent years in a full rage-driven celebration of lawfare.
After this steady diet of politicized prosecutions in New York, Trump secured 44.3% of the vote, while Harris received 55.7%. In 2020, the margin was 23 points.
It is doubtful that the election will completely kill the appetite for lawfare in New York. As I wrote in my recent book, “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” “rage is liberating, even addictive. It allows us to say and do things that we would ordinarily avoid, even denounce in others.”
What people do not want to admit that is that they like the rage.
Rage addicts will continue to push James and Bragg to continue these unhinged campaigns. It is not prosecutorial — it is recreational.
We can only hope that James and Bragg feel a twinge of humility when their cases fall apart along with the Kamala Harris campaign.
And Merchan has the opportunity to use this brief sobering moment and issue a conditional discharge without home or actual confinement.
He can take judicial notice of Trump’s election as our next president and end this circus in Manhattan.
Instead of listening to the braying mob, he can act as a judge.
MSNBC is not thrilled with these new developments…
MSNBC: Jack Smith and the DOJ seeking to end cases against Donald Trump, citing long-standing policy regarding the prosecution of a sitting president.
Fox News says, ‘Trump legal problems have all – essentially – gone away’…
🚨BREAKING: Jack Smith’s prosecution is OVER:
“The DOJ, where Jack Smith works, cannot prosecute a sitting president… Fox News is told that Jack Smith will be gone from his post as special counsel, meaning the cases will be gone before Trump takes the oath of office on January… pic.twitter.com/Gu6u56E0gj
Yields Slide After Stellar 30Y Auction, But Then Blow Out Again
With global markets in chaos in the aftermath of the Trump victory – and what appears to be a Republican sweep – and bond yields soaring by the most since the covid crisis, some were worried that today’s 30Y auction would be a historic disaster and may even fail, as technically improbable as that may be. In the end, with 30Y yields blowing out by more than 20bps, the biggest rout since 2020, such fair proved to be groundless because today’s sale of $25BN in 30Y paper ended up being very solid for the most part.
The auction, the last of the quarterly refunding trio, priced at a high yield of 4.608%, up from 4.389% last month and the highest since May’s 4.635%, but stopped through the When Issued 4.638% by 2.2bps, the biggest stop through since Dec 2020, although a lot of that has to do with the massive concession into today’s auction.
The bid to cover was a remarkable 2.642, up huge from 2.495 in October, above the 2.40 recent average, and the highest since Jan 2018.
The internals however were more problematic, with Indirects awarded 62.7%, down from 80.5% last month and the lowest since July. To fill the gap, Direct Bidders ended up taking a whopping 27.1%, up almost 4x from 7.4% in October and the third highest on record. This left just 10.2% for Dealers, who took down the lowest amount since June 2023.
Overall, this was a very solid auction and clearly one which had plenty of demand at a clearing yield well inside the stop through, which is also why yields dropped almost 5bps on the auction. However, since nothing has really changed fundamentally and since the market will now focus very closely on the budget deficit, the grind higher in yields has resumed and the entire rates complex is back near session wides.
Kamala Concedes In Phone Call To Trump, Campaign Manager Says “Unfathomably Painful”
Vice President Kamala Harris has called President-Elect Donald Trump to concede the election and congratulate him on beating her like Doug Emhoff’s ex-girlfriend.
A crestfallen Wolf Blitzer delivers the news:
JUST IN: Kamala Harris has called President Donald Trump to congratulate him and concede the 2024 election.
Harris campaign manager, meanwhile, sent a letter to staff in which she said “losing is unfathomably painful. It is hard. This will take a long time to process. But the work of protecting America from the impacts of a Trump Presidency starts now.”
