Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge ruled on Sunday that Iowa election officials may continue to follow Secretary of State Paul Pate’s directive to challenge the ballots of 2,176 registered voters who have been identified as possible noncitizens.

The ruling came as a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll forecast Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa by three points over former President Donald Trump, while other polling organizations estimate that Trump is still ahead in what has been a safely Republican state in recent years.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Iowa filed a lawsuit on behalf of four naturalized citizens on Oct. 30, alleging that Pate’s directive to check registered voters’ citizenship status violated the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution.

On Oct. 22, Pate directed Iowa county auditors to challenge the ballots of voters who had previously identified themselves as noncitizens to the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT).

In its lawsuit, the ACLU argued that Pate’s list of voters whose ballots would be challenged was based on outdated DOT records, and that many of those listed have already been proven to be citizens.

It alleged that the secretary’s directive places “severe burdens” on the voting rights of the affected voters by keeping the list secret, which it said could undermine their ability to resolve their eligibility.

Pate responded that voters will be allowed to cast a provisional ballot instead, which will be counted if they can prove their citizenship.

U.S. District Judge Stephen Locher declined to grant a preliminary injunction, citing the finding that “some portion” of the registered voter names on Pate’s list have indeed been confirmed to be non-citizens.

“This portion appears to be relatively small—no more than 12 percent—but, still, the injunctive relief requested by Plaintiffs effectively would force local election officials to permit those individuals to vote,” Locher stated in a Nov. 3 ruling.

The plaintiffs had argued that Pate’s directive violates the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA), which requires that states complete any program for removing ineligible voters within 90 days before an election.

However, Locher ruled that the NVRA was not implicated in this case because the state had not removed any voters from the voter rolls, and was only requiring them to cast provisional ballots.

“Secretary Pate’s letter is likely to impose a modest additional burden on at least some voters who should not have to bear that burden. All the same, those voters are still permitted to vote and have their ballots counted. The harm is therefore not irreparable,” the judge stated.

Pate last week had blamed the federal government for blocking his office from meeting the 90-day rule, saying that the audit was delayed to October by a lack of cooperation by the Department of Transport, which did not grant access to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) database for confirming citizenship.

In a statement, Pate hailed the court’s ruling as a “win for Iowa’s election integrity,” emphasizing the importance of ensuring that only eligible voters can participate in Iowa’s election process.

He said that his office would continue to seek clarity on the citizenship status of voters who had previously self-reported to be noncitizens, while urging the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services office to allow the Iowa field office to release information about those voters.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird stated on X that the ruling ensured that Iowans’ votes will not be canceled out by illegal votes.

“I was glad to lead the fight in court to defend Iowa’s long-standing election integrity laws. Only American citizens can vote in Iowa elections,” she said in a statement.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the ACLU for comment but did not hear back by publication time.

This week’s refunding auctions were surely not on anyone’s list of the most important events over the next five days, and that’s good because moments ago we just concluded the week’s first coupon auction when the Treasury sold $58BN in 3 Year paper in a relatively boring affair.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.152%, a 27bps jump from last month’s 3.878%, and the highest since July; the auction tailed the When Issued of 4.143 by 0.9bps, following last month’s 0.7bps tail and the highest since June.

The bid to cover was a modest improvement from last month, rising to 2.60 from 2.45, and above the six-auction average of 2.57.

The internals were also stronger, with Indirects surging to 70.6% from 56.9%, above the six-auction average and one of the highest on record. And with Directs dropping to just 9.6%, the lowest since the covid crisis days of March/April 2020, Dealers were left holding 19.8%, the highest since June.

While the secondary market saw a big drop in yields after Friday’s blowout, the mixed auction was spooky enough – largely due to the tail – to send yields to session highs, rising to 4.325% at last check, up from 4.27% at session lows.

It is possible that the market, always clutching for soundbites, merely noted the auction’s tail and ignored the rest of the otherwise solid auction; if so watch as yields sink lower in the next few minutes as humans override their dumb algo traders.

Once again Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has taken his requests and demands of Western backers a big step further while lambasting lack of action and adequate support.

In a weekend Telegram post he warned that North Korean troops are already mustering just inside Russia within striking distance from Ukraine, and that long-range missiles are needed from the West to directly attack their encampments.

“Now we see every site where Russia is accumulating these soldiers from North Korea on its territory – all their camps,” The Ukrainian leader began. He urged that Ukraine needs the capability to attack “preemptively”. 

“We could strike preemptively if we had this opportunity – to strike at a sufficiently long range. And it depends on the partners,” Zelensky continued.

That’s when he lashed out against his own allies who have provided Ukraine’s military billions up to this point. “But instead of such necessary long-range attacks, America is watching, Britain is watching, Germany is watching,” he stressed. “Everyone is just waiting for the North Korean military to start attacking Ukrainians as well.”

The Russian and North Korean governments have still not overtly or definitively confirmed the deployment, but have have strongly hinted at it, pointing to the defense pact inked between Presidents Putin and Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang this past summer.

But things might not be going so well with attempts to integrate Russian and North Korean soldiers on the ground. While the story is unverified, Newsweek mentions the following:

A Russian soldier has spoken of how North Korean troops deployed to fight against Ukraine endangered their own unit by shooting in the wrong direction.

The claims in a clip posted on social media comes as Kyiv said that the first North Korean soldiers stationed in Russia’s Kursk region had come under fire. Concern grows internationally at the addition of a third party into the conflict.

Some reports say that Russian commanders really don’t known what to do with the North Korean units, and there will remain obvious problems of communication and differences of military culture as well.

As for what’s in it for North Korea, the same report details the following based on regional reports:

Pyongyang will get money, food, and space technology from Russia in return for their contribution to Putin’s war effort, The Korea Herald newspaper reported on Sunday. It cited Wi Sung-lac, a South Korean lawmaker it said had been briefed by the country’s National Intelligence Service (NIS).

North Korean soldiers will also get $2,000 per month salary, making a price tag of around $240 million a year if 10,000 soldiers are deployed, he said.

As for this latest escalation of Zelensky’s rhetoric complaining about the Western alliance, the West has indeed still been resisting Ukraine’s demands to greenlight long-range missile strikes deep into Russian territory. Putin has warned that this would cross all ‘red lines’ and unleash major war.

Ukrainian soldiers, now mostly with only small caliber ammo, no air cover, waiting for promised F-16’s that never arrive, artillery shells that never arrive, defending against a coalition of Russia, Iran and North Korea.
https://t.co/IeerkH5GFO

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) February 18, 2024

Any such escalation could also impact the Korean peninsula if North Korean troops are in the midst of direct conflict in Eastern Europe as well. All of this suggests the slow, increasing internationalization of the war.

Authored by Sundance via The Conservative Treehouse,

For more than two years we have been saying to keep an eye on Moldova in the background.  Yesterday Moldova held their national election, and while the actual number of people living in Moldova voted for the anti-war position, once the overseas ballots were added the results changed.  The nationalists became the minority and the pro-war/pro-EU globalists declared victory.

This may seem like a relatively ‘over there’ and small issue.  However, the people who control Joe Biden, the U.S. State Dept and the CIA have been positioning themselves in/around Moldova for several years now.  Watch out for Moldova to become the spark that leads to escalated conflict with Russia.

Moldova has a significant population of pro-Russia citizens in the east, which makes the internal domestic dynamic a little strenuous to manage. It is very similar to Ukraine in that regard. It is much smaller than Ukraine, but similar inside the national political dynamic.  Additionally, the geopolitical dynamic that is unfolding with the use of Moldova is identical to how the U.S/NATO exploited Ukraine.

A lot depends on what happens tomorrow in the U.S. election.  This aspect cannot be overstated.  However, there is now a high degree of confidence, if the people behind Kamala Harris are able to pull off a manipulated USA election, Moldova will immediately become the fulcrum for expanded direct conflict between the “west”, led by the USA, and Russia.

With the globalists and pro-war EU institutions how cemented into the national politics of Moldova, all of the elements for an unstable powder keg are in place.  Just like Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will not permit the open use of geographical proximity to provoke conflict directly on Russia’s border.  What Ukraine was, Moldova now is.

ASSOCIATED PRESS – CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) — Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu has won a second term in a pivotal presidential runoff against a Russia-friendly opponent, in a race that was overshadowed by claims of Russian interference, voter fraud, and intimidation in the European Union candidate country.

With nearly 99% of votes counted in the second round of the presidential election held Sunday, Sandu had 55% of the vote, according to the Central Electoral Commission, or CEC, compared to 45% for Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general who was backed by the pro-Russia Party of Socialists.

The result will be a major relief for the pro-Western government, which strongly backed Sandu’s candidacy, and her push for closer Western ties on Moldova’s path toward the EU.

[…] When polls closed locally at 9 p.m. (1900 GMT), turnout stood at more than 1.68 million people — about 54% of eligible voters, according to the CEC. Moldova’s large diaspora, which cast ballots in record numbers of more than 325,000 voted, heavily in favor of Sandu in the runoff. (read more)

It was the Moldovan ex-pat community, living outside Moldova, that overwhelmingly decided the fate of this small nation that borders Russia.

Oddly, and I have made ancillary mention to this in the past, there is an absolutely massive population of ex-pat Moldovans living in/around Jackson Hole Wyoming.  Years ago I started noticing it, but I had no real context to understand why there was such a dense population of people from a relatively obscure country all in one place. We all know who else lives in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: Dick and Liz Cheney.

The people living in Moldova are majority aligned with Russia.  However, the people voting in the election from outside Moldova changed the dynamic of the election.  This reality creates a major source of angst for Russia and Vladimir Putin.  This dynamic also creates the point on the stick the EU/USA and CIA will use to poke the bear.

Watch closely.

War is more imminent today than it was yesterday.

Campaigning this weekend in the swing state of Michigan, Kamala Harris made a final desperate pitch to Arab-Americans, issuing a vague promise that if she becomes president her administration will end the war in Gaza.

Michigan is of course home to huge communities of Arabs as well as Muslim Americans. There are also many Arab Christians in the state – but all are united in their condemnation of the Biden-Harris White House’s blank check support to Israel and the IDF’s killing of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians during operations against Hamas.

A mere day out from the election, Harris on Sunday tried to turn disgruntled progressives and Democrats in her favor, many who have vowed to register a protest ‘uncommitted’ vote, by saying she’ll “end” the death and destruction in Gaza at an event at Michigan State University.

But nowhere in her comments did she outline how she hopes to end the Gaza war:

“This year has been difficult, given the scale of death and destruction in Gaza and given the civilian casualties and displacement in Lebanon, it is devastating. And as president, I will do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza, to bring home the hostages, end the suffering in Gaza, ensure Israel is secure, and ensure the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, freedom, security and self-determination,” Harris said to applause during a rally in East Lansing city of Michigan, home to 200,000 Arab Americans.

Progressives have over the course of the last year slammed the Democratic administration for paying lip service to peace, all while ramping up deliveries of heavy arms and bombs, and committing further billions to Israel.

But even now, as the campaign is at the finish line, pundits are pointing out the hypocrisy and contradictory messaging. She’s been accused of saying one thing in front of Jewish voters, and another in front of Arab-American voters.

The New York Post explains:

Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly tailored her messaging to appeal to Jewish and Arab American voters in battleground states who can sway the election with contradictory ads that emphasize her position on Israel and Gaza.

The Harris campaign released multiple ads underscoring her commitment to Israel targeting undecided Jewish voters in Pennsylvania – while ads in Michigan aimed at the Arab American population express her solidarity with civilians in Gaza, CNN reported. 

Facebook ads in the Keystone State feature a video of Harris’ Democratic National Committee speech, where she explains her support for Israel during the ongoing war in the Middle East – omitting two sections that also highlight the “human suffering” in Gaza. 

“And let me be clear — I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself,” Harris says in the ad.

This is not going to fly in Michigan, and so her weekend attempts to present a solution to the Gaza crisis fell flat with many, and is unlikely to sway large swathes of voters.

A lot of the Arab vote looks to go to Jill Stein…

Arab-Americans on MSNBC panel won’t vote for Harris over Gaza genocide, with the majority choosing to vote for Jill Stein instead: “There’s nothing she can do or say to change our minds.” pic.twitter.com/fOkuLlPIZX

— HalalFlow (@halalflow) October 22, 2024

The Trump campaign has meanwhile been heavily reaching out to the Arab-American population this year, and has even opened a campaign headquarters in Hamtramck, Michigan in order to be a more visible presence among this demographic.

US Factory Orders fell 0.5% MoM (confirming the flash print) in September, which dragged orders down 1.6% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Core orders (ex-Transportation) rose 0.1% MoM (from a 0.2% MoM decline in August). Durable Goods Orders (Final) fell 0.7% MoM (and core durable goods orders rose 0.5% MoM – better than expected).

Orders placed with US factories for business equipment declined in preliminary October data and the prior month’s gain was revised lower, suggesting firms are more guarded about investment.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, for the sixth month in the last seven, durable goods orders were revised lower (August revised from -0.2% MoM to -0.8% MoM!)…

Source: Bloomberg

How is The Fed – or anyone – supposed to make ‘decisions’ when the data is revised so aggressively and consistently? Will the reality rug get pulled if Trump wins?

By Benjamin Picton, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Election day looms and market pricing has tightened substantially for Kamala Harris. Prediction markets which had recorded leads of more than 30pts for Donald Trump this time last week now have that lead down to single digits. In the case of PredictIt, Kamala Harris is now narrowly favoured to win, although on Polymarket Trump’s lead has returned.

On top of the dramatic tightening in prediction markets, we have also seen some curious polling results in the final days of the campaign. A NYT/Sienna poll found Vice President Harris leading in North Carolina and Georgia, while Donald Trump closed the gap in Pennsylvania and remained well ahead in Arizona. AtlasIntel found that Donald Trump leads in every swing state, including Georgia and North Carolina, and Rasmussen found that Trump has a 3-point lead in their national polling! Meanwhile, Ann Selzer published a poll showing Kamala Harris leading 47-44 in Iowa, which raised plenty of eyebrows given the state’s reputation as a Republican stronghold and Selzer’s strong reputation for the accuracy of her predictions.

Political genius Ann Selzer appears confused over what the “R” and “D” letters refer to in polling cross tabs pic.twitter.com/R7iADsusbT

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) November 3, 2024

Given the variability and contradictory nature of these recent results, it might be best to adopt the Nate Silver perspective of “we just don’t know who is going to win”. Silver has recently suggested that pollsters have been “herding” by publishing a lot of polls showing a statistical tie. Silver says that the probability of that many polls turning up that result (even if it is accurate) is infinitesimally small, so there’s some funny business going on. Silver himself has the election as a virtual coinflip, though he does award a slight edge to Trump, while RealClearPolitics also has Trump ahead in a very tight race.

Two days out, President Trump’s chances to win from…

Nate Silver: 52.6%
FiveThirtyEight: 53%
DecisionDeskHQ: 54%
The Economist: 51%

VOTE, VOTE, VOTE! pic.twitter.com/SJsSE0iZzd

— Jake Schneider (@jacobkschneider) November 4, 2024

Nevertheless, if the published polls that serve as inputs to these models really are herding, we might be headed for a more decisive result that the polling figures have been suggesting. Could the rapid tightening in betting markets be a head-fake?

While attention has been understandably focused on the US election, October non-farm payrolls printed at just 12,000 on Friday evening. This was a big miss compared to the median estimate of 100,000 on the Bloomberg survey, which was already a low figure to account for the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Two surveyed analysts actually predicted a worse number, but the end result was still almost 3 standard deviations from the median, suggesting that it came as a bit of a shock to the economics profession at large. That probably shouldn’t have been the case given that the September JOLTS report released earlier in the week showed the total number of job openings was more than 100,000 below even the most pessimistic forecast in the Bloomberg survey. Perhaps its time for analysts to revise their Beveridge Curve models?

Private payrolls declined by 28,000 and manufacturing payrolls were down by 46,000, suggesting that the market economy is in retreat and the sacred cow of good manufacturing jobs is looking a little shaky, despite bipartisan efforts to amp up protectionism over the last 7.5 years. The two-month revision to net employment was -112,000 (continuing the run of job gains being given away in subsequent downward revisions) and participation dropped by a tenth of a percentage point to keep the unemployment rate constant at 4.1%. All things considered, this looks to be the worst jobs report of the Biden Presidency arriving just days out from the beginning of his lame-duck period.

Back in May of this year Jerome Powell said that he didn’t “see the stag’ or the ‘flation” in the US economy, but it looks like the stag might be getting a little easier to spot. Our own US analyst Philip Marey has been suggesting that the Fed would be cutting rates this year not because the inflation fight had been won (core PCE printed at 2.7% YoY last week), but because the Fed would be getting worried about the shape of the jobs market and the outlook for future growth. Powell and Co starting the easing cycle with a 50bps bang in September and saying that they did not want to see further deterioration in the labour market seems to suggest that Philip was on the money

OIS futures are now pricing in an extra 4bps of cuts to the Fed Funds rate in 2024 compared to this time last week. A 25bps cut from the FOMC later this week is 98.5% priced into the futures, but a follow up cut in December is slightly less assured. Powell himself issued forward guidance to suggest that 25bps cuts at each meeting was the base case, but a few Fed speakers since then have intimated that the Fed might skip cutting at one of the two remaining meetings in 2024.

While the short end of the curve parsed the vagaries of employment data and Fed talking points to fine-tune rate cut expectations, long end yields continued to march higher last week. The US 10-year finished the week more than 14bps higher, but comments from Iranian Supreme Leader Khomeini over the weekend might temper some of the selloff.

Khomeini said that Iran would deliver a “crushing response” to recent Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets. The Wall Street Journal reports that Iranian attacks would not occur before the US elections, but would take place before the next President can be inaugurated and would not be limited to missiles and drones, as the two previous strikes were. This leaves Joe Biden in the hotseat to coordinate a response with an expired electoral mandate, and Israel in the position where a strike on Iranian oil or nuclear assets may again need to be countenanced given that Iran doesn’t seem to be getting the message.

Oil prices are up a little more than $1/bbl since the close on Friday. This is likely due to a combination of factors, including the Khomeini speech and news from OPEC+ that the 180,000 bb/day production cuts due to expire in December will be extended for at least one more month. RaboResearch’s energy analysts see the global crude oil market in a state of oversupply over the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. Our expectation is therefore for risk rallies to remain capped by the laws of arithmetic in the absence of supply interruptions. Having said that, it would be a brave trader who shorts this market as it would only take a few Israeli missiles headed toward Kharg Island to change the calculus completely.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Multiple counties in California’s San Francisco Bay Area region reinstated mask mandates in health care settings starting Nov. 1, while other municipalities have recommended face coverings.

Counties with mask requirements for employees include San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Napa, and San Mateo. But Santa Clara County, which includes San Jose, and San Mateo County also require visitors and patients in those health care facilities to wear masks.

Those mandates, which were announced weeks or months ago, run from Nov. 1, 2024, until March 31, 2025. A similar mandate was imposed across the Bay Area during the 2023–24 winter and spring months.

Health Care Orders Issued

Santa Clara County announced it will require all people inside health care facilities, including visitors and patients, to wear masks from Nov. 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025.

The county said it is making exceptions for children under age 2 and for people with medical issues that make it difficult for them to breathe in a mask or to remove a mask without assistance.

“Preventive measures like wearing a mask in crowded indoor places and staying home when you are sick continue to add layers of protection against respiratory viruses,” the county said in a statement in September.

“Just like last year, the April 2023 health order will continue to require masks in all patient care areas of health care facilities starting November 1 and continuing through the winter respiratory virus period.”

In early October, San Mateo County mandated “health care personnel and visitors in patient care areas of skilled nursing facilities to wear face masks,” adding that the county health officer has the ability to “adjust the dates.”

Alameda County, which encompasses Oakland, issued an order in September that requires staff at health care facilities to wear masks throughout the rest of the year and the early spring.

“The fall and winter of 2023–2024 saw substantial waves of RSV, flu and COVID19, and a similar pattern is expected this year,” Alameda officials said in the order, adding that those respiratory infections “typically circulate and peak in Alameda County during the late fall and winter months.”

Authorities in Contra Costa County issued a similar health order on Sept. 26, mandating health care staff, but not patients, to wear masks until March 31 of next year.

“The masking of personnel in these facilities is necessary to provide a layer of protection to patients during the respiratory season when risk of exposure is highest,” the county said.

Napa County released a health order on Oct. 1 for a similar mandate, only requiring staff to wear masks in facilities.

California Hospital Reinstates Mandate

Aside from government mandates, a hospital system in Monterey, California, reinstated a mandate for patients, visitors, and staff.

In a statement issued on Oct. 29, Montage Health wrote that masks will be mandated “for everyone” who enters Community Hospital of the Monterey Peninsula patient care areas regardless of their vaccination status.

Other locations operated by Montage Health will only impose a mask recommendation, not a mandate, the company said.

NYC Offers Recommendation, but No Mandate

Earlier this week, New York City’s Department of Health suggested in a post on X that residents wear masks ahead of the flu season and to protect against COVID-19. The department suggested that people use respirator-style masks such as KN95s, KF94s, or N95s.

“Wearing a mask in crowded indoor settings can help protect you from viruses like COVID-19 and the flu this season. Masking up also protects others if you’re sick,” the department said in the Oct. 28 post.

Some studies have found that masking did not make much difference in reducing the risk of contracting COVID-19 during the pandemic.

The Cochrane Institute, in a review issued in early 2023, found that “wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu‐like illness” or COVID-19.

However, studies cited by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said that face masks and respirator-style masks “effectively filter virus-sized particles in laboratory settings” and that “use of respirators with higher filtration capacity was associated with the most protection, compared with no mask use.”

But, it added, “The real-world effectiveness of face coverings to prevent acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 infection has not been widely studied.”

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Barack Obama recycled the “very fine people” narrative yet again, despite the fact that it’s a proven hoax.

Obama made the comments during a Kamala Harris campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

“Maybe you’re Muslim-American or you’re Jewish-American and you’re furious about the ongoing bloodshed in the Middle East and worried about the rise of anti-semitism,” said Obama.

“Why would you place your faith in someone who instituted a so-called Muslim ban,” he added (another hoax given that it wasn’t a ‘Muslim ban’ – it only covered 8 per cent of the global Muslim population and focused on countries that were a high security risk to the United States).

Barack Obama is using the “very fine people” hoax in an attempt to appeal to Jewish Voters

Obama is smart and this is so thoroughly debunked that the only reasonable conclusion

is that he’s deliberately lying

pic.twitter.com/9iGwIPnzBX

— Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) November 3, 2024

Obama went on to assert that Trump “said that there were very fine people on both sides of the white supremacist rally.”

The Harris campaign also amplified this narrative back in August with a post on X via her official campaign account.

Democrats have been circulating this talking point for 7 years despite it being a known fabrication which was even acknowledged by left-wing Snopes.

Trump made the comments in response to the Unite the Right rally in August 2017, which was focused around the removal of a Confederate statue.

“Trump did say there were “very fine people on both sides,” referring to the protesters and the counterprotesters,” reported Snopes.

Even Snopes says this is false. Trump never called them “very fine people.” @CommunityNotes pic.twitter.com/rosHVeAtwP

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) August 12, 2024

“He said in the same statement he wasn’t talking about neo-Nazis and white nationalists, who he said should be “condemned totally.”

The “condemned totally” part of Trump’s remarks was cut out of the clip posted by the Harris campaign.

The Associated Press also admitted the hoax, noting that Trump, “Wasn’t talking about the Neo-Nazis and white nationalists in attendance.”

This is just the latest hoax that Democrats have attempted to reinvigorate over the course of the campaign.

They previously asserted that Trump said there would be a physical “bloodbath” in America if he didn’t win the election when Trump was in fact talking about the auto industry in the context of the economy.

Harris and her legacy media campaign surrogates also claimed that Trump threatened to execute Liz Cheney when in reality he was talking about making chickenhawks fight their own wars.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

US equity futures are higher with Mag7 names mixed but NVDA higher on its Dow inclusion with semis also ticking higher; the dollar and yields are lower as the Trump reflation trade took a hit after several polls over the weekend showed a rebound for Kamala Harris. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1%, while Nasdaq futures are flat; small caps are underperforming as the yield curve bull flattens with the USD weaker on a reversal in the Trumpflation trade. Commodities are catching a bid, led by Energy as OPEC+ decided to delay its production increase again. Today’s macro data is likely to be ignored but given the weaker than expected NFP, investors may want to know the state of the economy as we get past the Election and the Thursday’s Fed mtg. ISM-Services tomorrow is the most important print this week with Sentiment updates on Friday.

In premarket trading, Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams advanced after S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday that the pair would be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nvidia (NVDA US) +2.3%, Sherwin-Williams (SHW US) +4.5%. Intel, which is to be taken out of the Dow Jone, dropped 2.3%, while Apple fell 0.4% after Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway continued its sale of shares in the iPhone maker. Talen Energy shares slide 13% as the company said it was evaluating its options after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) rejected a nuclear power pact on Friday. In sympathy, we saw sharp drops across the nuclear sector: Constellation Energy (CEG US) -7.4% Vistra (VST US) -3.8%, PSEG (PEG US)-3.8%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF US) shares gain 2.4% after Citi opened a 30-day positive catalyst watch on the apparel retailer, expecting another strong profit beat when it reports third-quarter results on Nov. 26.
• Air Transport Services Group shares (ATSG US) jump 22% after a Reuters report on Sunday said that Stonepeak Partners is in advanced talks to acquire the provider of aircraft leasing and cargo transportation services for about $3.1 billion including debt.
• Roblox (RBLX US) shares rise 3.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded to overweight from equal-weight following the video-game company’s results.
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX US) shares soar 14% after the biotech’s experimental pill, VK2735, showed increased weight loss in patients at higher doses. Shares in fellow makers of weight-loss drugs fall. Eli Lilly (LLY US) -1.7%, Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) -1.1% in Copenhagen

As noted above, the dollar fell and Treasuries rallied as investors eased back bets on Donald Trump winning the presidential election after weekend polls indicated Kamala Harris was gaining ground. The Bloomberg dollar index dropped the most in more than a month, while the Mexican peso — widely viewed as the closest proxy for Trump’s victory odds after it tumbled in the aftermath of Trump’s 2016 victory — was the top performer among 16 major currencies. The argument goes that Trump’s support for looser fiscal policy and steep tariffs will deepen the federal deficit and fuel inflation, pushing up interest rates to the detriment of Treasuries but the benefit of the dollar.

Sentiment shifted after Harris received encouraging signals from an ABC News and Ipsos poll giving her a 49%-46% edge nationally against Trump in the race for the White House, while the New York Times/Siena survey released Sunday showed the Democratic nominee ahead in five of seven swing states. A psy-oped survey by the Des Moines Register that pointed to a lead for Harris in Iowa — a state that Trump has won in both of his previous contests — was a certain outlier, but served to sow doubt in the Trump victory narrative and underscore the ever-shifting dynamics of the race. Still, Harris’ advantage across all of the surveys was within the margin of error, and a NBC News poll released Sunday showed the race deadlocked 49%-49%.

“Somehow markets persuaded themselves that Trump was well ahead and had been priced as if it was quite a clear victory for him, which seems crazy,” Erik Nielsen, group chief economics advisor at UniCredit SpA, told Bloomberg TV. “What you’re seeing now is a realization that we got ahead of ourselves.”

Elsewhere, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points Thursday, after the latest jobs data showed US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 while the unemployment rate remained low. Even so, the numbers were distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike. Economists also expect the Bank of England to lower its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.75%.

European stocks also gained in thin Monday trading, with investor eyes keenly focused on Tuesday’s US presidential election. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.3% to 512.19 with 398 members up, 187 down, and 15 unchanged. Bachem and Burberry lead gains on the Stoxx 600, with Swedish landlord SBB among the day’s biggest fallers after a local business paper recommended its readers sell shares in the firm. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Bachem shares gain as much as 7.3%, the most since March, after JPMorgan analysts initiated coverage on the Swiss biochemical manufacturer with an overweight recommendation
• Burberry shares rally as much as 8% to the highest in almost four months, following a report by online fashion publication Miss Tweed that Moncler could be considering making a bid for the British luxury goods firm
• Jenoptik gains as much as 3.8%, the most in more than a month, after Oddo BHF upgrades to outperform from neutral and says that risks to the German optoelectronics firm’s 2025 targets are already reflected in the shares
• Chemring shares rise as much as 4.5% after the supplier to the defense and aerospace markets won two new contracts worth £278m in total and said it remains on course to deliver FY expectations
• ALSO gains as much as 4.4%, the most since July, after ZKB initiated coverage with an outperform recommendation. It cited upside ahead for the Swiss computer hardware and software wholesaler from its Westcoast UK acquisition
• EssilorLuxottica gains as much as 4% after BFM Business reported Meta will invest EU5 billion in the company to take a 4-5% in the firm, quoting unnamed sources
• Anglo American shares climb as much as 2.1% after the miner struck a deal to sell its stake in a joint venture that owns steelmaking coal mines in Australia for A$1.6 billion, with analysts impressed with the valuation
• Swedish real estate group SBB tumbled as much as 27% in Stockholm on Monday after newspaper Dagens Industri advised readers to sell the stock
• Schneider Electric shares drop as much as 2% after the company’s surprise announcement that CEO Peter Herweck has been replaced by Oliver Blum, who currently leads the firm’s biggest division
• Reckitt Benckiser falls as much as 1.8% as Bernstein cuts its recommendation to market perform from outperform following the UK staple-goods company’s biggest rally in about four years on Friday
• PostNL shares fall as much as 2.6% after the letter and parcel distributor warned earnings and free cashflow will be at the bottom end of its previous guidance range as it announced a change in chief executive

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also climbed, fueled by the weaker dollar, a rise in South Korean shares and hopes for more economic stimulus from the Chinese government. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index rose as much as 0.9%, putting it on course for its best day in more than two weeks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Commonwealth Bank of Australia contributed the most to the gauge’s gains. South Korean shares rallied after the nation’s main opposition party said it supported the government’s decision to drop a plan that would have imposed a capital gains tax on retail investors. A jump in Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Energy Solution Ltd. helped fuel a widespread advance in equities. In China, the top legislative body reviewed a proposal to move some local governments’ off-balance-sheet debt onto their official accounts, a highly-anticipated move to ease their financial burden that has been foreshadowed by officials.

In FX, the dollar is on track for its largest fall since late August while Treasury yields also retreated as traders pare so called ‘Trump trades’ in response to the latest US election polls.  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%. The moves came after a poll by the Des Moines Register showed Kamala Harris with a 47%-44% lead in Iowa — a state Trump has won in each of his prior elections. Subsequent rebalancing of Trump trades weighed on the dollar. Still, Harris’ advantage across all of the surveys was within the margin of error, and a NBC News poll released Sunday showed the race deadlocked. “Trump is still favored to win, but the odds have retraced quite a bit of the moves seen in October across a range of markets,” Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank Ltd., writes in a note. “The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25bps in its upcoming meeting this week, but the result of the US election could matter materially for how the Fed thinks about the longer-term path beyond 2024.”

• USD/JPY fell as much as 0.9% to 151.71 after rising in the last five weeks
• AUD/USD rose 0.7% to 0.6603; NZD/USD gained 0.6% to 0.5997

In rates, US 10-year yields drop 10 bps to 4.29% as Treasury futures reach session highs in early US trading after an opening gap higher, leaving yields 5bp-11bp lower across a flatter curve while the long-end-led gains flatten 2s10s by ~5bp, 5s30s by ~1.5bp. In 10-year sector bunds and gilts lag Treasuries by 10bp and 12bp on the day. The rally in Treasuries has not filtered through to European government bonds which have likely been hampered by a jump in oil prices. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs rise 2-3 bps each.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate rose 2.5% Monday while Brent crude futures climbed 2.2% to around $74.70 a barrel, as OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month while Iran resumed its escalation of rhetoric against Israel. Spot gold rises $5 to around $2,742/oz. 

Today’s US economic data calendar includes September factory orders at 10am; ahead this week are ISM services index and University of Michigan sentiment. Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of Nov. 7 policy announcement

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,759.50
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 511.23
• MXAP up 0.6% to 186.25
• MXAPJ up 0.6% to 595.76
• Nikkei down 2.6% to 38,053.67
• Topix down 1.9% to 2,644.26
• Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 20,567.52
• Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,310.21
• Sensex down 1.2% to 78,782.41
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 8,164.59
• Kospi up 1.8% to 2,588.97
• German 10Y yield up 1 bp at 2.43%
• Euro up 0.6% to $1.0899
• Brent Futures up 2.6% to $75.01/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,742.21
• US Dollar Index down 0.53% to 103.73

Top Overnight News

• With scant detail on how Beijing aims to stimulate its way out of its economic downturn, some investors have speculated that the U.S. presidential election might prompt the big “bazooka” markets have hoped for. According to people involved in policy discussions, that is wishful thinking: A bazooka isn’t coming—at least not this year. WSJ
• Chinese authorities are demanding wealthy individuals and companies double-check their taxes for unpaid liabilities in a move that threatens to further dent investor confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. FT
• Germany’s coalition gov’t seems to be on the brink of collapse over budgetary disagreements and probably won’t last until the next scheduled election in Sept 2025. NYT
• UK PM Starmer attempts to reassure markets over the government’s new budget in an FT editorial following last week’s rise in borrowing costs. FT
• Amid U.S. warnings against a counterattack on Israel, Iran is sending a defiant diplomatic message: It is planning a complex response involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, said Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans. WSJ
• Harris’s team shifts its view on the race, and no longer consider themselves to be the underdog (Trump’s team “scoffs” at such a change, and notes that strong early voting numbers from Republicans bodes well for them). WaPo
• The dollar weakened and Treasuries extended gains as investors walked back bets on Donald Trump winning the election after polls gave Kamala Harris a slight edge nationally and in some swing states. Still, Harris’ advantage across all of the surveys was within the margin of error. BBG
• OPEC+ agreed to delay a production hike by one month, from Dec until Jan (it was expected that the Dec restart would be postponed, but a 30-day delay probably won’t provide a major boost to oil prices). BBG
• Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Apple by roughly 25% last quarter, helping boost its cash pile to a record $325.2 billion. Operating profit fell and the firm declined to buy back its own stock for the first time since 2018. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets

APAC stocks began the week mostly positive but with the gains capped amid the holiday closure in Japan and as global markets braced for this week’s major risk events including the US Presidential Election. ASX 200 was led by strength in tech, telecoms and utilities, while financials also benefitted after Westpac’s earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the former traded indecisively with strength in automakers offsetting the losses in the property sector, while the mainland was underpinned amid tailwinds from an unwinding of the Trump trade and with the NPC Standing Committee convening this week with participants eyeing the approval of over CNY 10tln of additional debt issuance for the next few years.

Top Asian News

• China’s NPC reviews local government debt swap, according to Xinhua; reviewed bill on raising ceiling on local government debt to replace existing hidden debt.
• China’s Commerce Ministry files lawsuit against the EU’s final EV tariff.
• China’s Commerce Minister met with Australia’s Trade Minister on Sunday and said China hopes Australia will continue to improve its business environment and treat Chinese companies fairly and equitably. China’s Commerce Minister also met with French Foreign Trade Ministerial Delegate Sophie Primas and stated the EU’s countervailing investigation on China’s electric vehicles has ‘seriously hindered’ China-EU auto industry cooperation.
• China is not planning “bazooka” stimulus for this year, according to WSJ sources; Chinese authorities reportedly set to signal after the NPC that more steps to support growth are in the pipeline.
• RBNZ said geopolitical tensions were highlighted as a risk to stability, while it noted that concern about geopolitical tensions has been increasing recently and potential impacts from geopolitical risks cannot be underestimated.
• Indonesia extended its tax holiday policy with an adjustment amid global minimum tax implementation, while it is considering extending tax incentives to property and electric vehicles sectors in 2025 and is considering making it longer for exporters to retain earnings in the domestic market beyond three months.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.1%) are generally modestly firmer, having initially traded tentatively throughout most of the European morning. European sectors are mixed; Autos takes the top spot alongside Energy, with the latter buoyed by strength in underlying oil prices. Tech is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by losses in STMicroelectronics, after it received a couple of broker downgrades. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ U/C, RTY U/C) are mixed, with the ES and NQ trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark in the run-up of the US Election.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves said she was wrong to tell British voters before the election that Labour wouldn’t announce new tax increases and she didn’t appreciate the size of the fiscal deficit but noted that Labour won’t need a similar budget during Parliament, according to Bloomberg.
• Former UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade Kemi Badenoch won the race to be the next leader of the Conservative Party after beating Robert Jenrick in the months-long contest, according to Sky News.

FX

• USD is on the backfoot vs. all peers as a shift in polling in the US election towards Harris has seen a scaling back of “Trump trades” across the board, one of which was a stronger USD. DXY slipped below its 200DMA at 103.82 and been as low as 103.62, matching its 21DMA.
• EUR is underpinned by the twin effects from last week’s EZ GDP and inflation metrics as well as a paring back in the risk of a Trump Presidency which carries risk for the Eurozone. As such, EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.09 handle, peaking at 1.0904. GBP is not as sensitive to the Trump trade unwind and therefore is getting outmuscled by some peers. Cable has been unable to make its way back onto a 1.30 handle, topping out at 1.2998.
• USD/JPY has been as low as 151.61 with JPY benefitting from a potential reappraisal of the Fed easing trajectory in lieu of the shift in US polling over the weekend. Currently trading just shy of 152.00
• Antipodeans are both enjoying a session of gains vs. the broadly softer USD. AUD/USD briefly made its way back onto a 0.66 handle but was unable to hold above the level.
• GBP is firmer vs. the USD but softer vs. the EUR.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1203 vs exp. 7.1208 (prev. 7.1135).
• Turkish CPI MM (Oct) 2.88% vs. Exp. 2.61% (Prev. 2.97%); YY 48.58% vs. Exp. 48.2% (Prev. 49.38%)

Fixed Income

• USTs enter the election week higher, bolstered by polls showing that Harris could clinch victory in Iowa and with betting odds shifting towards a Harris victory overall. Given this, the Trump Trade is paring with USTs 15+ ticks higher at best to a 110-16+ peak. Thereafter, the complex was weighed on amid reports that China’s NPC is reviewing local government debt swaps; USTs trimmed back to a 110-09 trough, but still firmer on the session.
• Bunds are slightly softer, though off a 131.40 trough which is just below Friday’s base but clear of last week’s 131.15 WTD trough. Weighed on by the above election dynamcs and are also softer as domestic political risk heats up once again, following the leak of Finance Minister Lindner’s economic reform plan.
• Gilts are modestly firmer, caught between the diverging leads from Germany and the US. Weekend press round from Chancellor Reeves saw her stress that the Labour party won’t need to announce a similar budget (in the context of tax rises) during the parliamentary term. Pivoting the 94.00 mark, in a 93.88-94.34 range.

Commodities

• Firmer trade across the crude complex amid several factors; (1) OPEC+ is delaying the planned return of production by a month (2) Geopolitical concerns remained heightened (3) China’s NPC Standing Committee is due to meet from Nov 4th-8th (4) The Dollar is on a weaker footing amid an unwind of the Trump trade. Brent Jan’25 sits towards the upper end of a USD 73.88-74.91/bbl parameter.
• Precious metals hold a modest upward bias across precious metals against the backdrop of a softer Dollar, heightened geopolitical tensions, and in the run-up to the US Presidential Election. Spot gold currently remains tucked in a narrow range between USD 2,731.93-2,744.93/oz parameter.
• Positive bias across base metals amid a softer dollar coupled with some optimism (or anticipation) as China’s top legislative body, the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, convenes from today through to Friday 8th November.
• OPEC+ agreed to delay the December oil output increase by one month, according to a Reuters source, while OPEC confirmed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman extended the 2.2mln bpd voluntary adjustments for one month until the end of December.
• Libya’s NOC said production rates of the Waha Oil Company reached above 335k bpd.
• Canada is to unveil details of a proposed emissions cap on the oil and gas sector on Monday.
• BP (BP/ LN) CEO says that the conflict in the Middle East is the “top risk we hold right now”.
• ENI (ENI IM) CEO says gas demand is increasing worldwide; volatility in energy markets will continue in 2025.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman says Iran is to use all of its means and full strength in its response to Israel.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said the US and Israel should know they will undoubtedly receive a crushing response for what they do against Iran and the resistance front, according to state media. It was also reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the country will “certainly” launch a new attack against Israel, according to ISNA.
• Iran is planning a strong and complex response to Israel involving even more powerful warheads and other weapons, according to WSJ citing Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans.
• US warned Iran that it won’t be able to restrain Israel if Iran attacks, according to Axios. It was separately reported that US B-52 bombers arrived in the Middle East after Washington announced their deployment as a warning to Iran, while the Pentagon said the move aims to protect US personnel and interests in the region, according to AFP and France 24.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said pushing Hezbollah back beyond the Litani River is key to returning residents to homes in northern Israel. It was separately reported that Netanyahu cancelled his visit to Metula after a Hezbollah drone explosion occurred just 20 minutes prior to his arrival, according to Israeli media reports.
• Israeli troops detained a Syrian citizen in recent months who they said was an Iranian operative in Syria who had gathered intelligence on Israeli troops in the border area. It was separately reported that Israeli commandos launched a seaborne raid into northern Lebanon on Saturday and seized a senior Hezbollah operative, while Israel said that it killed Hezbollah’s rocket unit commander in southern Lebanon, according to Reuters and FT.
• Israel officially notified the UN that it is cancelling the agreement that regulates UNRWA operations in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, according to Axios’s Ravid.
• Israel’s Channel 12 quoting a senior official noted expectations of reaching an agreement to end the war in Lebanon within two weeks at most, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Hamas senior official Hamdan said dialogue among Palestinian factions in Cairo is positive but added that he didn’t want to jump to any conclusions and noted that Hamas has not received any written proposals regarding a possible ceasefire in Gaza, according to Reuters citing Al Aqsa TV.
• Hamas insists on unified negotiations to prevent Israel from resuming fire after a prisoner release and Egypt continues mediation efforts with Palestinian and Israeli parties to reach a Gaza ceasefire and increase humanitarian aid access, according to a senior security source cited by Egypt’s Al Qahera News.
• Political adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Fadi al-Shammari told Sky News Arabia that an Israeli strike on Iraq cannot be ruled out but added that they do not want to give justifications for Israel to do so.
• Yemen’s Houthis said it will continue the maritime blockade against Israeli vessels amid intelligence reports of asset transfers and said it will not recognise changes in ownership of Israeli shipping companies, as well as warned against collaboration.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russia’s Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medvedev said the US is mistaken if it thinks that Russia will not use nuclear weapons in case of a threat to its existence, according to TASS.
• Russian forces took over Vyshneve village in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, as well as captured Pershotravneve and Kurakhivka in eastern Ukraine, according to the Russian Defence Ministry.
• North Korea and Russia reaffirmed a commitment to implement the strategic partnership reached in June and their foreign ministers agreed to hold more dialogues going forward, according to KCNA.
• India’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said India and China have commenced verification patrolling on mutually agreed positions in both Demchok and Depsang.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00: Sept. Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.8%, prior -0.8%
• 10:00: Sept. Durables-Less Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00: Sept. Factory Orders, est. -0.5%, prior -0.2%
• 10:00: Sept. Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior -0.1%
• 10:00: Sept. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.3%
• 10:00: Sept. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Unless you’ve been hiding out on Mars, and if so who could blame you, then tomorrow will shape the direction of the world economy and geopolitics for the next four years. It almost makes the FOMC meeting that concludes on Thursday seem parochial by comparison.

We arrive at this monumental election week with bond markets having been on shaky ground of late with October seeing the worst month for the Bloomberg Global Agg since September 2022 when inflation was only just off its peak, the Fed was still raising by 75bps clips, and the Truss budget and UK LDI pension crisis had exaggerated the sell-off. Last week 10yr US yields rose +14.4bps with +10bps of it on Friday and a little surprisingly after a soft, albeit weather impacted, payrolls report. The most impressive part of last week’s price action though was that it occurred alongside prediction markets pulling back from the Red sweep expectation that peaked the previous week. As an example, last weekend Trump has a probability of 61% on PredictIt versus 52% on Friday and 48% on Saturday while slightly rebounding this morning to currently stand again at 51%. On Polymarket.com Mr Trump was as high as 67% on Wednesday but this dropped to around 59% on Friday and over the weekend fell to as low at 53% (currently 56%), with a Republican sweep now at 39% having been as high as 49% last Tuesday. The dip over the weekend came after a highly anticipated Selzer De Moines Register Iowa poll was released on Saturday. The poll saw Harris with a 3-point lead in a state where polling averages have Trump 9 points ahead. Many political commentators had been waiting for this poll as it has one of the best track records amongst pollsters with FiveThirtyEight describing Selzer as “the best pollster in politics”.

Anyone who has read “Fooled by Randomness” will be aware of Nassim Taleb’s view that its often difficult to assess the difference between luck and skill when it comes to someone with a good track record. Someone always has to have the best track record. That could be skill or it could be say choosing heads five times in a row and getting it right. For now Treasuries are closed due to a Japanese holiday but long bond futures are up over a point which recoups more than half of Friday’s losses. The dollar index, which has been correlated to some degree with a Trump victory, is down just over half a percent and flirting with the largest drop in two months.

Ahead of the vote, our US economists have published “Everything you need to know for election week” which provides a comprehensive overview of the “swing states” that will decide the election, a list of bellwether counties to pay attention to within those states, as well as a precise recap of the time line for vote reporting and media projections of the winner in 2020. They also cover the rules for challenging the voting results in the swing states as well as rule changes at the federal level adopted in the wake of the last election. They note that while a winner is likely to be declared in MI, AZ, WI and NV within the first 24 hours of the polls closing on Tuesday, PA and GA are likely to take longer to assess – potentially 3-4 days or longer if there are recounts. If states are disputed, we may not know until December 11, which is the federal deadline for states to certify their electors. So there remains a large degree of uncertainty around both the result, including the very tight House race, and when we will know it. Our economists’ chart book also details the potential economic and market implications of the election outcome. This includes an assessment of the possible paths for fiscal policy, trade, immigration and regulation as well as their implications for economic growth, the fiscal deficit and financial markets. So it’s well worth having on your bedside table as you monitor the latest through blearly eyes tomorrow night.

On Thursday, when we may or may not know who the next President is going to be, we should almost certainly see a 25bps cut from the Fed and a reiteration from Powell that the Fed’s subsequent meetings will be data dependent. This potential cut is likely to be unanimous but subsequent meetings could easily be less so. The data dependency will mean it might be tough to garner too much from the meeting, especially if the election outcome and with it future fiscal and trade policies are unknown. Even if the election outcome is known the full extent of policy change could take months to become apparent, especially on trade if Trump wins.

With all due respect to the rest of the week’s events they’ll pale into insignificance versus the above. However, the brief day-by-day main highlights outside of this include US factory orders and a 3yr UST auction today; China’s Caixin services ISM, the RBA meeting, US ISM services and a 10yr UST auction tomorrow; German factory orders, Eurozone PPI and a 30yr UST auction on Wednesday; German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, US productivity, claims and unit labour costs, alongside BoE, Riksbank and Norges rate decisions on Thursday; with the UoM consumer survey on Friday.

In China, the focus will be on the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress meeting expected to be held today through Friday as investors seek more details on stimulus measures. Our economists note that a fiscal stimulus package could be announced after the meeting on Friday.

For the BoE, our UK economist expects the central bank to make a quarter point cut for the second time this cycle, taking Bank Rate to 4.75%. He also highlights that the BoE’s projections that are also due next week will incorporate this week’s Autumn Budget (our economist breaks it down here). See his full preview of the meeting here.

Asian equity markets are mostly on the rise this morning, with the KOSPI (+1.50%) leading the gains, followed by the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.73%), the CSI (+0.72%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.53%), and the Hang Seng (+0.11%). Elsewhere, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday with S&P 500 (+0.24%) and NASDAQ 100 futures (+0.38%) both higher. Oil prices are climbing, with Brent futures up by +1.57% to $74.25 per barrel after OPEC+ agreed to delay its December production increase by one month.

Looking back on last week now and markets struggled across the board, as investors grappled with a weak US jobs report, disappointing earnings from big tech, along with growing uncertainty around the US election. Overall, that meant the S&P 500 lost ground for a second consecutive week, thanks to a -1.37% decline (+0.41% Friday), whilst the STOXX 600 in Europe fell -1.52% (+1.09% Friday). That was echoed on the rates side, with the 10yr Treasury yield ending the week up +14.4bps higher at 4.38%, its highest since early July. That included a +10.0bps sell-off on Friday despite the weak payrolls print. Likewise in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds were also up +11.4bps (+1.6bps Friday) to 2.40%, their highest since July as well.

Those losses came against the backdrop of an underwhelming jobs report on Friday, where nonfarm payrolls grew by just +12k in October (vs. +100k expected), marking the weakest growth since December 2020. In fact, the number was only positive thanks to an increase in government payrolls, as private payrolls actually fell by -28k. To be fair, the report was impacted by weather-related disruption from Hurricane Milton, along with the recent strikes. But even so, the previous two months were also revised down, and the 3-month average of payrolls now stands at just +104k, which is the weakest of this cycle so far. Elsewhere, the unemployment rate was at 4.1% as expected, but if you look at the next decimals, it was actually up almost a tenth from 4.051% to 4.145%.

One factor dragging down markets were those losses among big tech firms, and the Magnificent 7 fell -1.84% (+1.07% Friday). Indeed for the NASDAQ, it meant the index ended a run of 7 consecutive weekly gains, posting a -1.50% decline (+0.80% Friday). Otherwise, there were notable losses among UK gilts following the government’s Budget, with yields on 10yr gilts rising every day of the week. By Friday, that meant they were up +21.2bps over the week (-0.1bps Friday) to 4.45%, reaching their highest level in a year. The spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds also widened by +9.8bps over the week (-1.7bps Friday) to 204bps.

Finally, oil prices fell back last week, with Brent crude down -3.88% (-0.08%% Friday). However, there were significant moves across the week, with a sharp downturn on Monday (-6.09%) after Israel’s strikes on Iran over the previous weekend were focused on military targets rather than any oil facilities. But later in the week, there was then a recovery in prices, particularly after Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggested Iran was planning a retaliatory strike against Israel using its proxies in Iraq.

It’s fair to say reviewing the week in 7 days’ time from now will be fascinating!