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Microsoft Shares Crater On Azure, Intelligent Cloud Growth Guidance

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Microsoft Shares Crater On Azure, Intelligent Cloud Growth Guidance

Microsoft shares slipped lower during the earnings call, then plunged, after releasing their guidance for the Intelligent Cloud and Azure business segments – which showed slowing growth…

*MICROSOFT: 2Q AZURE SALES TO GROW 31% – 32%

*MICROSOFT: 2Q INTELLIGENT CLOUD SALES TO BE $25.55B -$25.85B

Additionally, this caught some people’s attention:

  • *MICROSOFT TO REPORT 2Q LOSS IN INVESTMENTS ON OPENAI STAKE

MSFT is down over 3% on the day now…

*  *  *

Microsoft shares are rising after hours after beating top-and bottom-lines in Q1 earnings:

  • Revenue was $65.6 billion and increased 16%, estimate $64.51 billion

  • Diluted earnings per share was $3.30 and increased 10%, estimate $3.11

Breaking down the revenue lines, it was (almost) a beat across the board with only personal computing disappointing…

  • Microsoft Cloud revenue $38.9 billion, BEAT estimate $38.11 billion

  • Intelligent Cloud revenue $24.09 billion, BEAT estimate $26.74 billion

  • Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +34%, BEAT estimate +30.4% (slowing slightly from the 35% last quarter).

  • Productivity and Business Processes revenue $28.32 billion, BEAT estimate $22.88 billion

  • More Personal Computing revenue $13.18 billion, MISSED estimate $14.23 billion

AI reportedly contributed 12pts to Azure revenue growth in Q1:

“Strong execution by our sales teams and partners delivered a solid start to our fiscal year with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $38.9 billion, up 22% year-over-year,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

MSFT also beat on operating income and its CapEx was higher than expected…

  • Operating income $30.55 billion (up 14%), BEAT estimate $29.21 billion

  • Capital expenditure $14.92 billion, BEAT estimate $14.55 billion

Satya is all bulled up:

“AI-driven transformation is changing work, work artifacts, and workflow across every role, function, and business process,” said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.

“We are expanding our opportunity and winning new customers as we help them apply our AI platforms and tools to drive new growth and operating leverage.”

The market’s reaction was insane to be frank – an initial puke was followed by a surge which was quickly sold for a modest 2%-ish gain as we write…

For such a big beat, this is not the kind of reaction we would expect (unless of course everyone and their pet rabbit is already long).

“People are shifting from just talking about artificial intelligence and testing and piloting artificial intelligence to actually putting it into production,” said Jackson Ader, an analyst at Keybanc.

Ahead of the earnings report, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said investors are looking for signs of adoption of Microsoft’s Copilot AI services.

“Investor sentiment around the Microsoft story over the last few months has shifted more neutral/cautious with shares underperforming the Nasdaq 100, with concerns around the pace of Copilot adoption and increasing competition in the AI ecosystem from other Big Tech players,” he said in a client note Tuesday.

He added, “This is a ‘gut check quarter’ for Microsoft with many on the Street starting to grow skeptical of the pace of this AI/cloud growth story in Redmond.”

MSFT share are now back to unchanged after hours ahead of the earnings call.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 18:05

Democrats Plan For Color Revolution

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Democrats Plan For Color Revolution

Authored by Jeff Carlson and Hans Mahncke via Truth Over News,

It feels like there’s been a notable shift amongst Democrats in the last month. A recent sense of fatalism – or perhaps just simple resignation to what appears to be an inevitable Trump win. But as it turns out, there are some Democrats who have been preparing for this potential outcome for at least the last year. 

One of those people is Norman Eisen, and it looks like he’s up to his old Lawfare & Color Revolution tricks again. The man responsible for virtually all of the legal attacks on President Trump now has a new activist group – although it has many of the same players – and they’re preparing for an assault on a second Trump Presidency.

Eisen, a Brookings senior fellow, Obama’s former White House Ethics Czar and Ambassador to Czechoslovakia during the “Velvet Revolution,” has been behind the ongoing Lawfare that has targeted Trump for years. Eisen was one of the primary forces behind the first impeachment of Trump and is also the co-founder of Leftist non-profit CREW or Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

Eisen played a lead role in Democrats pre-2020 election war games which predicted a remarkably accurate contested election scenario that ended unfavorably for Trump. Of particular note in regards to his current efforts, Eisen is also the author of the highly influential color revolution manual, The Democracy Playbook.

Eisen’s latest venture, State Democracy Defenders Action (SDDA), bills itself as bringing “together a bipartisan all-star team of experts in safeguarding democracy” and ominously claims they help “shape the long term strategy to defeat Election denial and its logical outgrowth: American Autocracy, starting with preparing for a vigorous response to whatever 2025 – and beyond – may bring.”

Their site claims that SDDA will “fill three key gaps in the fight against election sabotage and autocracy” by going “on offense against democracy deniers who break the law, including through our innovative program of outside public support for criminal prosecutions.” 

The group says they “work with national, state and local allies across the country to defend in real-time the foundation of our democracy – free and fair elections.” State Democracy Defenders Action also foreshadows future civil unrest by claiming to “help shape the long-term strategy to defeat autocracy in 2025 – and beyond.”

As we’ll see, this sounds like the formation of a Color Revolution. 

Central to their efforts are what the group calls their 10 Principles, which can appear innocuous with a casual glance but are actually representative of NeoCon, Never-Trump talking points and Globalist Goals. When one reads these principles with an eye towards a future Trump Presidency, their words take on an entirely different meaning.

The group’s first principle states that they “believe in the foundational idea of rule of law.” But that claim is immediately followed by a weaponized declaration that’s obviously aimed at Trump:

“Our country cannot be led by anyone who believes they are not accountable to our Constitution or who repeatedly and persistently violates civil and criminal statutes. That is disqualifying and contrary to the principle of rule of law.”

You can probably see where this is going. State Democracy Defenders Action repeatedly references J6, Project 2025 and Autocracy, utilizing these leftist dog whistles wherever possible:

“We are alarmed about the rising autocratic movement in the United States that threatens the American idea and the American people. January 6, 2021, represented an ugly inflection point of this movement and it is driving forward with authoritarian proposals like Project 2025 that constitute an assault on the freedoms of every American. This movement threatens to eviscerate our rights, our prosperity, and our stability and security upon which our nation and the world rely.”

The group also appears to be preparing to fight Trump’s planned downsizing of the federal government, noting that career civil service employees “work in our government irrespective of the political party or ideology of the person elected to the Presidency.” They laughingly claim that “Our civil servants’ obligations to the people of this country, the Constitution, and the rule of law serve a fundamental role in effective democratic governance.”

Eisen appears to be using many of the useful idiots and perennial talking heads that he hosts on his weekly lawfare calls: Jennifer Rubin, Asha Rangappa, George Conway, Joe Walsh, Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Ty Cobb, John Dean, Heath Mayo, and Skye Perryman.

Although most are not particularly impressive, these operatives do have a purpose to fulfill. The way Eisen’s projects have worked historically is through the establishment of a public-facing entity that propagates and publicizes their ideas and agendas while disguising the organization’s more sinister goals.

Eisen and the other senior operators always seem to use the same talking heads and former federal prosecutors to get their narrative circling in the public sphere. A public “prep” if you will. Meanwhile, a far more serious effort is mounted behind the scenes.

In advance of the 2020 election, Edward Foley, an Eisen collaborator and head of the election law program at Ohio University, issued a 55-page paper discussing the coming Blue Shift – a theory which holds that Democratic candidates often gain votes in the days following the actual election. This narrative was carefully crafted by Eisen’s operatives and carried by the media over the next twelve months.

By the time the 2020 election arrived everyone anticipated a delay in voting results. The sudden overnight shift from a Trump lead to a Biden win was still a huge shock – but it would have been impossible without this careful advance planning and widespread dissemination by Democrat operatives. Eisen’s useful idiots fulfill precisely this function – which is why he uses them in almost all of his operations.

But make no mistake. More serious operators are in charge of things. In addition to Eisen, there’s Eisen’s original Lawfare partner Norm Ornstein of American Enterprise Institute, NeoCon and Never-Trumper Bill Kristol (we can debate how serious Kristol actually is), the Atlantic’s David Frum, Susan Corke (Managing Director of SDDA), Victoria Nuland’s husband Robert Kagan – and DNC Power Operative Michael Podhorzer.

Podhorzer, the former political director of the AFL-CIO and current Fellow at the Center for American Progress, is the man credited in Time’s now-infamous article, The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign, as being “The Architect” of Biden’s “win in 2020. Podhorzer is also the founder of The Analyst Institute, which has been referred to as “the nerve center of the data-driven empirical turn in Democratic campaign strategies.”

Unlike the public-facing useful idiots, Podhorzer is rarely seen and once again appears to be operating behind the scenes. Podhorzer is a highly powerful, highly influential, but little known DNC operative – and while we can’t prove it, our guess is that he’s directing Eisen rather than the other way around. 

The inclusion of Robert Kagan, a Brookings Fellow like Eisen, is also notable. He recently “resigned” from the Washington Post after the paper refused to endorse Kamala. A long-time NeoCon, Kagan has worked tirelessly to lie and manipulate our country into multiple wars. His wife, Victoria Nuland, was instrumental in overthrowing the legitimately elected government in Ukraine in early 2014 and she was also involved in the RussiaGate lie – receiving perhaps the earliest known copy of the Steele Dossier in early July 2016.

Back in November 2023, Kagan penned a dangerous – 6,000 word editorial in the Washington Post titled “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.” Kagan said a Trump win was all but inevitable – and Trump would rule as a ruthless dictator “unless something radical and unforeseen happens.” 

As Mollie Hemmingway noted at the time, “This extreme and dangerous genre – of claiming Trump is Hitler (because, they say, he might do what Democrats are doing right now) – should probably be given the name Assassination Prep.” 

Kagan’s inclusion in Eisen’s new effort also explains the sudden appearance of Victoria Nuland on Rachel Maddow – which prompted Alexandros Marinos to ask “Did Nuland step down from State so she could coordinate the color revolution playbook from outside, like she did in Ukraine?” The answer to that question is almost certainly a resounding “yes.”

After resigning from the State Department, Nuland joined the Board of Directors at the National Endowment for Democracy. As Mike Benz notes, the NED is really just a CIA cut-out – and a major driver in the censorship of Americans – something that Nuland told Maddow she still supports:

“In 2020, the social media companies worked hard with the government to try to do content moderation to try to catch this stuff as it was happening, but this time we have Elon Musk talking directly to the Kremlin and ensuring that every time the Russians put out something like this, it gets 5 million views on X before anybody can catch it. So it’s quite dangerous.”

Eisen’s new group has also collaborated closely with the No Dictators Declaration, a loose-knit coalition organized by Senator Jamie Raskin – who recently stated that he intended to lead an effort to refuse to certify Trump as president if Trump won the election. Included in the No Dictators Declaration are specific calls to reduce Trump’s ability to respond to any post-election domestic unrest or civil uprisings. From their A Call to Protect American Freedoms declaration:

  1. To reduce the threat of dictatorship, Congress should limit the president’s ability to declare bogus domestic and foreign emergencies.

  1. To reduce the threat of dictatorship, Congress should limit the president’s abuse of his or her power to deploy the military on American soil.

    • Under the outdated and overbroad Insurrection Act, presidents can claim extraordinary powers to deploy troops domestically. Recently, some have called for its invocation to prevent Americans from exercising their First Amendment rights of free expression.

  1. To reduce the threat of dictatorship, Congress should prevent the adoption of partisan, personal, and ideological loyalty tests, loyalty oaths, and similar authoritarian measures designed to purge the professional civil service and replace qualified workers with unqualified loyalists to the president.

    • Working for the federal government means working for the American people under the Constitution and the rule of law.

  1. To reduce the threat of dictatorship, Congress should ensure that presidents who abuse their powers to commit crimes can be prosecuted like all other people.

    • The founders overthrew a king and wrote a Constitution to enshrine the core American ideal that no person is above the law. We the people must restore the concept that we are all equal before the law.

  1. To reduce the threat of dictatorship, Congress should limit the president’s ability to use investigative and prosecutorial decisions and resources to pursue vendettas against disfavored people and groups.

    • The Department of Justice, the Internal Revenue Service, and other government agencies cannot become instruments of tyranny. We must make certain that the executive branch cannot employ increasingly creative ways to persecute individuals, civil society organizations, and nonprofits based on their ideologies.

    • The U.S. currently has 42 national emergencies declared, some decades-old. Under emergency powers, a president can claim the authority to divert funds, seize property, and bypass Congress.

Everything contained within the group’s declaration is designed to limit and neuter a Trump Presidency –  to cripple Trump’s ability to respond and follow through on his campaign promises. Their declaration is really the fearful confession of guilty parties who are willing to do anything to avoid accountability.

One word that’s used over and over again by Eisen’s group is Autocracy –  in which absolute power is held by the ruler – in this case Trump. It’s a subtle continuation of the “Trump is Hitler” theme that’s used as the rationale for the group’s existence (Eisen’s group even has an extensive “American Autocracy Threat Tracker”). As SDDA member Ruth Ben-Ghiat stated, “This is an anti-autocracy conference because autocracy is what we are looking at if Donald Trump comes back to the White House.”

It’s also why there’s a continual focus on restricting Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act.

A number of current and former officials have claimed that Trump will attempt to use military force. Leon Panetta, who served as Obama’s CIA Director and then as his Secretary of Defense, told NBC that “Like any good dictator, Trump’s going to try to use the military to basically perform his will.” Senator Dick Blumenthal breathlessly claimed that “There are an array of horrors that could result from Trump’s unrestricted use of the Insurrection Act.” 

Mary McCord, executive director of the Institution for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection at Georgetown Law, told NBC that “‘We’re already starting to put together a team to think through the most damaging types of things that Trump might do so that we’re ready to bring lawsuits if we have to.”

McCord was the Acting head of the DOJ’s National Security Division from 2016 to 2017 and she was involved in the FBI’s early FISA surveillance of Trump advisor Carter Page. McCord was also appointed by Nancy Pelosi as legal counsel to the Jan 6th Capitol Security Review Task Force and has written articles pushing the Jan 6th narrative. McCord is one of the very worst of the Deep State actors.

The Insurrection Act authorizes the president to deploy military forces inside the United States to suppress rebellion or domestic violence or to enforce the law in certain situations. The Insurrection Act was last invoked in 1992, during the L.A. riots that followed the Rodney King beating by police. Both sides seem to believe that it may be needed again.

Podhorzer placed things into frightening context when he told the Autocracy in America conference that “The key question going into November is whether or not – and this is the message this conference is trying to get across – is to believe that this is an election as profound as any since 1860 about where this country is going.”

Podhorzer knew exactly what he was invoking. The election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 marked the final slide of America into the Civil War which formally began on April 12, 1861.

We mentioned the Time Magazine article on the 2020 election earlier, and we did so for a reason. There were several material admissions made, not the least being that the Left does actually control the activities of groups like Antifa, Black Lives Matter and others that rioted throughout the 2020 election year.

As the article notes, “Many of those organizers were part of [Mike] Podhorzer’s network” the man credited in Time’s article as being “The Architect” of the entire election effort.

The article detailed how more than 150 liberal groups had joined the “Protect the Results” coalition and stated that “The group’s now defunct website had a map listing 400 planned post election demonstrations, to be activated via text message as soon as Nov. 4. To stop the coup they feared, the left was ready to flood the streets.”

There is another unspoken admission here as well. The trigger for the pre-planned riots was a Biden loss, not a “stolen election”. Or said another way, the Left would determine what comprised a stolen election only by its outcome.

This matter was further highlighted by Angela Peoples, director for the Democracy Defense Coalition, who told Time Magazine that “We wanted to be mindful of when was the right time to call for moving masses of people into the street.”

But after Fox called Arizona for Biden, a decision was made to “stand down”. As Podhorzer noted, “They had spent so much time getting ready to hit the streets on Wednesday. But they did it…there was not a single Antifa vs. Proud Boys incident.”

In other words, Podhorzer and his crew effectively controlled the actions of Antifa and Black Lives Matter – if not completely, then at the very least during these critical moments and days. It seems likely that they control these same groups today.

In his Color Revolution playbook, Eisen wrote that “Political opposition groups should form networks between other opposition groups, local electoral activists, civil society groups, and, where appropriate, international organizations and actors” and “Forcefully contest each individual illiberal act of non-democratic actors”.

Eisen also foreshadowed his continued use of lawfare, noting that “big data and AI can play a role in litigation by forecasting which judges and jurisdictions are responsive to specific arguments, thereby guiding well-funded litigants while disadvantaging those without access to such tools.”

The plans by Eisen’s group should be taken seriously. We all remember the chaos and widespread civil unrest that took place in 2020. And don’t forget. If Trump is Hitler, then in Eisen’s eyes we are the “non-democratic actors” that his group is targeting.

TRUTH OVER NEWS is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 18:00

“For The Future Of Our Nation”: Man Who Walked On Moon Endorses Donald Trump

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“For The Future Of Our Nation”: Man Who Walked On Moon Endorses Donald Trump

Brigadier General Buzz Aldrin, the second person to walk on the moon, officially endorsed former President Donald Trump just five days before the presidential election. 

“America is a nation of bold ambition, hope, and energy. We are a nation of free thought, free association, and free movement. We are a nation that allows the best of humanity to emerge, and we strive for great things. Only in America, the Nation that I love, believe in, and took an oath to defend, do you find our spirit, the vision to break boundaries, turn impossible feats into reality,” Aldrin wrote in a statement that was published on Wednseday morning. 

Buzz noted, “Over the years, I have seen our government’s approach to space wax and wane, a fluctuating dynamic that has disappointed me from time to time. But under the first Trump Administration, I was impressed to see how human space exploration was elevated, made a policy of high importance again. Under President Trump’s first term, America saw a revitalized interest in space. His Administration reignited national efforts to get back to the moon, and push on to Mars – programs that continue today.” 

The former astronaut explained his excitement around “the great advancements in the private sector space economy, led by visionaries like Elon Musk.” 

The latest space accomplishment by Musk, Trump’s biggest supporter, was just a few weeks ago with the Starship rocket… 

“These are concrete accomplishments that align with my concerns and America’s policy priorities,” Buzz said. 

He explained the president has an incredible position to lead the nation and must have “clarity in judgment, decisiveness, knowledge, understanding, and calm under pressures few have a natural ability to manage, or the life experience to successfully undertake.” 

… something Kalama Harris does not – as she is merely a far-left activist – Deep State puppet – and not a successful manager like Trump. 

*  *  *

Here’s Brigadier General Buzz Aldrin’s full endorsement for former president: 

Brigadier General Buzz Aldrin endorses Donald J. Trump for President of the United States. General Aldrin, Lunar Module Pilot on Apollo 11 and Gemini 12 pilot, provides the following statement:

“America is a nation of bold ambition, hope, and energy. We are a nation of free thought, free association, and free movement. We are a nation that allows the best of humanity to emerge, and we strive for great things. Only in America, the Nation that I love, believe in, and took an oath to defend, do you find our spirit, the vision to break boundaries, turn impossible feats into reality. 

A half-Century ago, I was part of an important effort to put a human being on the moon. It was an honor to serve my country in that capacity. I am proud of what we accomplished then. While it has been 55 years since Americans set foot on the moon, the only Nation ever to do so, that effort continues to inspire new generations of Americans – to press ahead, blaze new trails of understanding, and expand our presence in space, For All Mankind. I have dedicated my life to the pursuit of scientific understanding, exploration, and an enduring human presence in space. The importance of that mission, that calling, runs through every fiber of my being. 

Over the years, I have seen our government’s approach to space wax and wane, a fluctuating dynamic that has disappointed me from time to time. But under the first Trump Administration, I was impressed to see how human space exploration was elevated, made a policy of high importance again. Under President Trump’s first term, America saw a revitalized interest in space. His Administration reignited national efforts to get back to the moon, and push on to Mars – programs that continue today. 

The Trump Administration also reinstituted the National Space Council, so leading voices could advocate for the importance of space to America.  Finally, under President Trump, the Nation’s defense was enhanced with the creation of the U.S. Space Force– increasingly important as space becomes a contested domain. At the same time, I have been enthused and excited by the great advancements in the private sector space economy, led by visionaries like Elon Musk.  These are concrete accomplishments that align with my concerns and America’s policy priorities.   

More broadly, we are facing serious and difficult realities on the global security landscape.  Domestically, we face major economic challenges, stability in our communities, and rule of law concerns. For these reasons and others, we need a proven, serious, tested leader for president.

The Presidency requires an understanding of human nature, clarity in judgement, decisiveness, knowledge, understanding, and calm under pressures few have a natural ability to manage, or the life experience to successfully undertake. It is a job where decisions are made that routinely involve American lives – some urgently but not without thought. The job requires sober analysis of frightening scenarios, and the instinct to lead with resolve.

From the skies over Korea in air-to-air combat to navigating, landing, and walking on the moon, I appreciate this kind of pressure. I know what it is like to have to make these kinds of decisions, firmly, on principle, with resolve and follow-through. Training, experience, and trust matter. 

In this election, we have a choice. We all have one vote. For some, the choice may not be easy – but in times of uncertainty real leaders are most needed – to guide and inspire a people, to push through the noise, recognize what really matters, and accomplish missions critical to all citizens. 

Most citizens rightly consider it an honor to cast their vote for a leader they believe will best serve the Nation – our government by, for and of the people. For me, for the future of our Nation, to meet enormous challenges, and for the proven policy accomplishments above, I believe the Nation is best served by voting for Donald J. Trump. I wholeheartedly endorse him for President of the United States. Godspeed President Trump, and God Bless the United States of America.” 

Meanwhile, the Harris-Walz campaign has been hoping to lock the vote in for gamers and porn addicts. Really can’t make this shit up. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 17:40

“How Did They Get My Email?”: UWisc Student Angered Harris-Walz Promos Sent En Masse To Students

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“How Did They Get My Email?”: UWisc Student Angered Harris-Walz Promos Sent En Masse To Students

By Jennifer Kabbany of The College Fix

The Kamala Harris presidential campaign is hosting a huge concert in Madison, Wisc., on Wednesday night, and an untold multitude of University of Wisconsin students recently got an email blast touting the event in their inboxes.

Students at both the University of Wisconsin Madison and University of Wisconsin Whitewater, the latter of which is an hour drive from Madison, confirmed to The College Fix they received emails from the Harris-Walz campaign Monday.

The emails touted the concert, which will feature Gracie Abrams and Mumford & Sons.

“RSVP NOW: Kamala Harris is coming to UW-Madison for a concert + rally!” was the subject line of the Get-Out-The-Vote email. The sender was listed as “Wisconsin for Harris-Walz.”

“Vice President Harris is coming to UW-Madison on Wednesday. And, for one day only, we’re getting ready to rock the ballot box with the When We Vote, We Win concert and rally,” the email stated above an image of a smiling Harris.

At least one UW-Whitewater student who is voting for Donald Trump said it was “insulting and infuriating” to get the email that amounted to an ad for Democrats. She said she was also shocked the Harris-Walz campaign obtained her school email address.

“How did they get my email,” said the student, a 24-year-old senior whose initials are T.E. She asked not to be fully named for fear of retribution for speaking out.

“It was really surprising to see an email from candidate Kamala Harris to my school email when I know for a fact there hasn’t been any from the RNC or Donald Trump or anything like that,” she said.

“It’s not easy to find at all, my email address is actually pretty private,” she said. “The Wisconsin Democratic Party would not be able to get my email unless they specifically asked for it.”

In fact, the campaign might have asked the UW system. Or the campaign might have obtained the email addresses through a third-party data voter company, which has successfully obtained students’ private FERPA data nationwide. Using some sort of algorithm could have also been the culprit, some have speculated.

A UW-Whitewater spokesperson did not immediately provide a comment, but a UW-Madison spokesperson said student emails are available upon request.

“[It] is correct that student directory information, including students’ university-issued email addresses, is available upon request under the Wisconsin Public Records Law,” spokesman John Lucas told The Fix via email. “In addition, under university policy, registered student organizations are also able to send one message per semester to all students.”

Lucas also clarified that Wednesday’s political rally will be held in the city of Madison, not at UW-Madison, as was stated in the Harris email.

One UW-Madison student told The College Fix on Tuesday they’re not shocked to have received at least two emails from the Harris-Walz campaign in the last 10 days. Another one, sent last week, touted a visit to Madison from Barack Obama.

“The whole campus is liberal, so a partisan email to my inbox doesn’t upset me. However, I don’t want to see my information being sold or given to political parties for some partisan agenda,” said the student, who spoke to The College Fix on the condition of anonymity.

“There is a Tulsi Gabbard & RFK event and an Eric Hovde event in Madison tonight that I bet no one is getting emails about,” the student added. “I also can’t imagine UW-Madison selling information to team Trump to get students to RSVP for the rally in Milwaukee on Friday.”

College students are a voting bloc that traditionally swing heavily Democrat, so targeting them in swing states might not be surprising to some. But the tactic of obtaining college students’ emails en masse is raising anger and prompting questions among Republican students.

As The College Fix previously reported, College Republicans decried a similar move in Arizona after the Harris campaign texted 70,000 Arizona State University students, and a total of 150,000 students statewide, urging them to vote for her.

An ASU spokesperson told The Fix: “Under Arizona Public Records Law, ASU’s records are public unless there is a specific confidentiality requirement.”

Arizona College Republicans and at least one GOP state lawmaker have pledged to conduct an investigation to determine how and why the contact information was used for partisan politics.

T.E., the UW-Whitewater student, said she would like answers for her state, too.

“I am very worried my family information has been handed off to others simply because they’re linked to my student email or my contact information and the UW-Whitewater database,” she said, adding it was especially surprising since her school is working to crack down on spam.

In the end, she replied to the Harris-Walz campaign with a message of her own: “No thanks, I’m voting for America and not a lawyer who got her position through sexual corrosion and exploitation and falsely imprisons parents based on truancy.”

For good measure, she added to her reply the iconic picture of Trump hoisting his fist in the air after being shot in the ear by an assassin.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 17:20

Harris Echoes Biden’s Democracy Warning In ‘Closing Argument’

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Harris Echoes Biden’s Democracy Warning In ‘Closing Argument’

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

Kamala Harris stood in the Washington Ellipse shortly after dusk, one week before Election Day.

Before her, the biggest crowd of her short candidacy, stretching to and spilling out on the National Mall. To the left of the vice president, the U.S. Capitol where, she reminded the assembled audience, Donald Trump, the former president whom she called “a petty tyrant,” had sent “an armed mob” to overturn “the will of the people.” Behind her in the distance, the White House. And an unpopular president.

President Biden did not attend because, as he explained to reporters earlier in the day, “This is her night.” But her big speech was his democracy argument all over again.

Biden had returned to politics with the lofty, and often expressed, goal of saving democracy. When that threat did not recede, as Trump tightened his grip on the GOP from exile, his warnings became more frequent. Ahead of the midterms, Biden warned of “an extreme MAGA ideology” that could end the experiment in self-government all together. He likened Trumpism to “semi-fascism.” He said his past, and future opponent, was an aspiring “dictator.” He described the preservation of democracy in campaign ads as the “central issue of my presidency.” But it did not work. At least not for Biden.

He consistently trailed Trump and never once pulled ahead of him in the RealClearPolitics Average. So when Harris succeeded him as the Democratic nominee earlier this summer, the vice president set aside the boilerplate. Trump had not changed. She just preferred to talk generally about “freedom” and specifically about everyday issues facing American families.

Voters engaged in democracy still report serious concerns about its future, though. A recent New York Times/Ipsos poll found that three quarters of Americans believe it’s under threat. In the final stretch, Harris has returned to the foundation that Biden built.

Back in the Ellipse, she cast the looming election as part of the larger struggle over whether self-government can long survive, calling upon the nation to preserve the freedoms that earlier generations at “Normandy and Selma, Seneca Falls and Stonewall, on farmlands and factory floors” had achieved.

She only said the word “democracy” once on Tuesday night. She argued that the enemy was at the gates.

Harris painted a dark picture of a second Trump presidency where he turns the military against his political opponents whom he calls “the enemy within,” cozies up to autocrats abroad, and curtails freedoms like abortion at home. The Trump campaign disputes each of these characterizations, but the vice president had a ready proof text: Jan. 6.

“Look, we all know who Donald Trump is. He is the person who stood at this very spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the United States Capitol to overturn the will of the people in a free and fair election that he knew he lost,” she said.

There was a word for this kind of behavior the Democrat said last week. When asked last week at a CNN town hall if Trump was a fascist, the vice president replied, “Yes I do.”

In the face of that kind of threat, and asking to be entrusted with democracy, Harris delivered her most stark call to action yet. Past generations “did not struggle, sacrifice, and lay down their lives, only to see us cede our fundamental freedoms, only to see us submit to the will of another petty tyrant,” she said. This country, the vice president said, would not be turned over to “wannabe dictators.”

The left loves this kind of rhetoric, and Democrats saw success with it during the midterms. They now hope it can deliver the White House a second time – hence the reason for a prime-time address from Harris rather than another rally in a swing state. Republicans, meanwhile, argue that Harris is flirting with disaster. Pointing to the first and second assassination attempts, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell demanded that the vice president tone down her rhetoric, accusing her in a letter of fanning “the flames beneath a boiling cauldron of political animus.”

The Democrats who turned out for Harris were in no mood for a lecture from Republicans. Lisa Cohen, a retired congressional staffer, blamed McConnell for not convicting Trump when he had a chance. The return to the Ellipse, where the Harris campaign served cotton candy and handed out American flags, she said was an attempt at catharsis.

“I feel like we are reclaiming this hallowed ground,” Cohen said after she showed friends pictures of the broken glass at the Capitol riot and the barbed wire that followed. “To be here, and be safe, to say this is still America, and we can still come together as a country is very powerful.”

Carrie Zimmerman traveled from Virginia for the rally. She works in higher education and wore a shirt emblazoned with the words, “Understand the Assignment.” After standing in line for hours and before the sun set, she explained that it meant “doing everything possible to get Kamala into the White House and everything possible to keep Donald Trump from setting foot in the Oval Office ever again.”

“One of the reasons I came here – it’s like an exorcism – is to take this spot of land back from what happened on Jan. 6,” she explained. The Harris campaign was clearly leaning into the iconography and not just the geography. So yes, Zimmerman said, the symbolism was welcome and evident, “but the actual consequences are 100% real too, and there’s nothing symbolic about them.”

The end of the Republic shouldn’t get in the way of a good time though, and the Harris campaign blasted pop songs over the speakers ahead of the speech. Catherine Buell, a community development executive, bopped along to the music and praised Biden for his work. There ought to be some joy in tackling challenges, she said, and bravado. “Biden was safe and a deal maker,” she said, pointing to his long record in Congress, ‘but we need somebody who will be a little bit more hardcore, a little more direct.”

The Harris campaign rolled out a sort of living platform ahead of the speech: people voting for Harris who had already benefited from her work in the current administration or embodied the challenges she sought to overcome. Among them, a mother whose diabetic children benefited from the cap on the cost of insulin, and entrepreneurs who stood to benefit from her proposal for a small business tax credit.

The task before Harris at the Ellipse was to warn that Trump was an existential threat, but also to introduce herself. Said the vice president, “I know many of you are still getting to know who I am.” To thread that needle, Harris vowed that while Trump would return to the Oval Office with “an enemies list,” she “will walk in with a to-do list.” 

But even though Harris largely adopted his democracy argument, and as he tried to avoid the spotlight, Biden seemed to describe half the country about to engage in that democratic process as “garbage.”

“Just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a ‘floating island of garbage,’” Biden said during a conference call with Latino leaders, referring to Tony Hinchcliffe, an insult comedian whom the Trump campaign invited to speak at his Madison Square Garden rally.

“The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,” Biden said while speaking in a halting manner. “His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.” The White House insisted that the president was calling the racist joke “garbage,” not Trump supporters.

Hours later Harris was calling for unity in the Ellipse.

“Trump has spent a decade trying to keep the American people divided and afraid of each other. That’s who he is. But America, I am here tonight to say: That’s not who we are,” she said, attempting to drive the contrast. “You see, what Donald Trump has never understood is that E Pluribus Unum – out of many, one – isn’t just a phrase on a dollar bill. It is a living truth at the heart of our nation.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 16:40

Meta Beats On Revenue, Misses On Ad Impressions, Raises CapEx Forecast; Stock Falls As Everyone Is Already Long

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Meta Beats On Revenue, Misses On Ad Impressions, Raises CapEx Forecast; Stock Falls As Everyone Is Already Long

After two stellar Mag 7 earnings (TSLA and GOOGL) in the past week to kick of Q3 megacap tech reports, investors were hoping that the streak would continue when MSFT and META reported after the close (preview here). And while MSFT appears to have succeeded in also beating estimates (its stock is rising modestly after the close), it was buyside darling META that was the focus of attention today, although as UBS said, with a positioning score of 9.5/10, that “question what will be the incremental positive learning coming out of the print.” It turns out the answer is nothing, and the stock is dropping despite reporting relatively solid results while raising capex expectations higher.

Here is the breakdown for Q3:

  • Revenue $40.59 billion, +19% y/y, beating estimates of $40.25 billion
    • Advertising rev. $39.89 billion, +19% y/y, beating estimates of $39.71 billion
    • Family of Apps revenue $40.32 billion, +19% y/y, beating estimates of $39.92 billion
    • Reality Labs revenue $270 million, +29% y/y, missing estimates of $312.8 million
    • Other revenue $434 million, +48% y/y, beating estimates of $395.5 million
  • Operating income $17.35 billion, +26% y/y, beating estimates of $16.24 billion
    • Family of Apps operating income $21.78 billion, +25% y/y, beating estimates of $20.47 billion
    • Reality Labs operating loss $4.43 billion, +18% y/y, beating estimates of loss $4.66 billion
  • Operating margin 43% vs. 40% y/y, beating estimates of 39.6%
  • EPS $6.03 vs. $4.39 y/y, beating estimates of $5.25

The ad revenue breakdown by geography shows that as usual the bulk of revenue came from the US and Canada, with Europe and Asia following.

Curiously while the total number of ad impressions both slowed and missed estimates for the second quarter in a row, the amount Meta charged per impression not only rose double digits and reversed last year’s decline, but came in almost double the expected. Good luck keeping those rates up in the recession, to wit:

  • Ad impression growth declined from 10% in Q2 (when it missed estimates of 13%) to +7%, also missing estimates of +10.8%.
  • Average price per ad rose 11%, vs a 6% drop a year ago, and above the 6.8% estimate

In brief remarks accompanying the earnings release, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that “we had a good quarter driven by AI progress across our apps and business… We also have strong momentum with Meta AI, Llama adoption, and AI-powered glasses.”

Looking ahead, the CFO made the following forecasts:

  • Expect Q4 total revenue to be in the range of $45-48 billion, vs sellside estimates of $46 billion
  • Expect full-year 2024 total expenses to be in the range of $96-98 billion, up from the prior range of $96-99 billion. For Reality Labs, expects 2024 operating losses to increase meaningfully year-over-year due to ongoing product development efforts and investments to further scale our ecosystem.
  • Expect full-year 2024 capital expenditures will be in the range of $38-40 billion, up from the prior range of $37-40 billion. The company expects significant capital expenditures growth in 2025: “Given this, along with the back-end weighted nature of our 2024 capital expenditures, we expect a significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth next year as we recognize higher growth in depreciation and operating expenses of our expanded infrastructure fleet.”
  • Expect Q4 tax rate to be in the low-teens

The company which no longer disclosed DAUs is also investing in large language models, the technology behind AI chatbots. It recently unveiled its largest model to date, which Zuckerberg said cost hundreds of millions of dollars in computing power to train. And while investors have been looking for signs of a positive impact on the business from all the spending, especially after Meta poured billions into another Zuckerberg passion project — the infamous metaverse — without generating much return, so far ad impression growth is sucking wind.

Turning to actual users, Facebook – which no longer reports Daily and Monthly Active Users since both have plateaued and are in the case of US and Europe decreasing – reported that its Family Daily Active People (or DAP, a made up category which the company can massage however it wants), rose to 3.29 billion, up 4.8%, and beating estimates of 3.25 billion. That’s right: we are supposed to believe that somehow half the world logs into Facebook every single day

Yet while user metrics are easy to fudge, one place where META missed again was Capex, which in Q3 rose to $9.2 billion from $8.2 billion in Q2, and $6.8 billion a year ago, far below consensus of $11.0 billion, and another strong hint that spending on all those H100 or whatever Nvidia chips is starting to cool despite the company’s always cheerful guidance.

Bottom line: META capex has missed bigly for the second quarter in a row, and instead of investing in H100s or whatever, the company is instead aggressively buying back stock to push its price higher (and perhaps has little faith in the AI tech which it is supposed to be spending a ton of cash on). Either that, or somehow META will spend a record $13 billion – give or take – on capex in Q4.

The bottom line is that after surging to all time highs earlier this month, and with literally everyone, everywhere long the company (it is the Mag7 name with the heaviest concentration across at both Goldman and UBS), there was little META could say to surprise to the upside, and as a result, the stock is lower modestly after hours.

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 16:26

Microsoft Shares Waver After Top- & Bottom-Line Beat, Cloud Growth Slowed

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Microsoft Shares Waver After Top- & Bottom-Line Beat, Cloud Growth Slowed

Microsoft shares are rising after hours after beating top-and bottom-lines in Q1 earnings:

  • Revenue was $65.6 billion and increased 16%, estimate $64.51 billion

  • Diluted earnings per share was $3.30 and increased 10%, estimate $3.11

Breaking down the revenue lines, it was (almost) a beat across the board with only personal computing disappointing…

  • Microsoft Cloud revenue $38.9 billion, BEAT estimate $38.11 billion

  • Intelligent Cloud revenue $24.09 billion, BEAT estimate $26.74 billion

  • Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +34%, BEAT estimate +30.4% (slowing slightly from the 35% last quarter).

  • Productivity and Business Processes revenue $28.32 billion, BEAT estimate $22.88 billion

  • More Personal Computing revenue $13.18 billion, MISSED estimate $14.23 billion

AI reportedly contributed 12pts to Azure revenue growth in Q1:

“Strong execution by our sales teams and partners delivered a solid start to our fiscal year with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $38.9 billion, up 22% year-over-year,” said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft.

MSFT also beat on operating income and its CapEx was higher than expected…

  • Operating income $30.55 billion (up 14%), BEAT estimate $29.21 billion

  • Capital expenditure $14.92 billion, BEAT estimate $14.55 billion

Satya is all bulled up:

“AI-driven transformation is changing work, work artifacts, and workflow across every role, function, and business process,” said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.

“We are expanding our opportunity and winning new customers as we help them apply our AI platforms and tools to drive new growth and operating leverage.”

The market’s reaction was insane to be frank – an initial puke was followed by a surge which was quickly sold for a modest 2%-ish gain as we write…

For such a big beat, this is not the kind of reaction we would expect (unless of course everyone and their pet rabbit is already long).

“People are shifting from just talking about artificial intelligence and testing and piloting artificial intelligence to actually putting it into production,” said Jackson Ader, an analyst at Keybanc.

Ahead of the earnings report, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said investors are looking for signs of adoption of Microsoft’s Copilot AI services.

“Investor sentiment around the Microsoft story over the last few months has shifted more neutral/cautious with shares underperforming the Nasdaq 100, with concerns around the pace of Copilot adoption and increasing competition in the AI ecosystem from other Big Tech players,” he said in a client note Tuesday.

He added, “This is a ‘gut check quarter’ for Microsoft with many on the Street starting to grow skeptical of the pace of this AI/cloud growth story in Redmond.”

MSFT share are now back to unchanged after hours ahead of the earnings call.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 16:17

Gold Hits Another Record High On ‘Goldilocks’ Data

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Gold Hits Another Record High On ‘Goldilocks’ Data

Micro topped macro on the day, according to Goldman Sachs trading desk, as volumes exploded but bear in mind that there is month-end pension rebalance with $11BN of equities for sale through tomorrow.

  • Internet names (GSTMTINT Index +100bps) outperformed after GOOGL, SNAP, RDDT results;

  • Semis broadly weaker (GSTMTSEM Index -280bps) after misses from both AMD & QRVO.

  • Obesity / GLP-1 names another big focus off LLY blowup this morning (stock is a max long for fast money community. (GSHLCGLP Index -170bps).

  • And SMCI shit the bed over its auditor quitting

But macro was not to be ignored…

ADP jobs soared (doubling expectations… definitely not dovish), GDP missed expectations (but nobody wanted to think about that because consumption soared), Core PCE hotter than expected (but also, no one wanted to think about that because it was down QoQ), Pending Home Sales soared (but mortgage rates have exploded higher since the data).

US Macro Surprise data continues to charge higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Forgive us but that does not look like ‘Goldilocks’ – it looks like ‘animal spirits’ ignited by a desperately dovish Fed’s 50bps cut prompting excessively easy financial conditions…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, the market is day-by-day erasing the dovishness priced in after The Fed cut with 2025 expectations now down to less than 3 cuts (72.5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldilocks or not – Gold was bid again, hitting another new record nominal high…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, all the US majors shot higher on the (Goldilocks) GDP data… but that didn’t last as reality set in and by the close, everything was red (even Small Caps which had spiked over 1% at the open). Nasdaq was the biggest loser…

The S&P continues to tread water near the highs while VIX remains notably elevated into next week…

Source: Bloomberg

A chaotic day in bond-land that ended with yields very mixed as the long-end dramatically outperformed (30Y -1bps, 2Y +8bps). The belly is the big laggard this week as bonds seems to think The Fed made a policy error…

Source: Bloomberg

Which drove the yield curve (2s30s) down near recent lows…

Source: Bloomberg

…and something big is building up behind the scenes…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar broke down from its coiling flag pattern yesterday, but chopped around again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin came off record highs but found support around $72,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices managed gains on the day but remain well down from before the “peace is here” collapse on Monday…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, The Trump Trade continued to accelerate (hitting a record spread to Kamala)…

Source: Bloomberg

Running out of time for an October Surprise to actually bring “hitler” down? Or did Biden just self-immolate with his ‘garbage’ gobbledygook?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 16:10

Michigan Says ‘Nationwide Issue’ With Certain Dominion Machines, While Colorado SoS Leaked Voting System Passwords

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Michigan Says ‘Nationwide Issue’ With Certain Dominion Machines, While Colorado SoS Leaked Voting System Passwords

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has admitted that split-ticket voters using Dominion ICX Voter Assist Terminals (VAT) should be prepared for ‘programming issues’ on election day. A VAT is a special type of device which people with disabilities may use to mark their ballot, which the machine then prints and puts through the tabulator.

According to Benson, the machine has issues properly processing certain types of ballots.

“Yeah, this is a nationwide issue with Dominion voter access terminals in, in the counties that use them in the voter access terminals,” Benson said. “Of course, not all the machines, just the ones that are accessible, have an issue. With the straight-party voting and a programming issue, that’s again affected the machines nationwide.”

Voters using a VAT this Election Day will have to either vote straight-ticket or manually split their ballot—unlike how Michigan voters usually have the option to select the straight party option and then override their party selection for certain races.

Benson also says this issue has frustrated officials in places where these machines are used. –WLNS

But wait, there’s more!

1,000 miles away in Colorado, the Secretary of State’s office “improperly” posted a spreadsheet to its public website that included passwords to some of the state’s voting system.

On Tuesday morning, Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman shared the hidden tab discovery in a mass email, along with an affidavit from someone who says the downloaded the Excel file & discovered the tab by clicking “unhide,” 9NEWS reports.

Over 600 passwords for machines in 63 of the state’s 64 counties were posted for any and all to see.

“BIOS passwords are highly confidential, allowing broad access for knowledgeable users to fundamentally manipulate systems and data and to remove any trace of doing so. Due to the sensitivity surrounding BIOS passwords, Colorado election regulation (8 CCR 1505-1), Rule 20.5.2(c)(11), requires limited access to a select few at the Colorado Department of State; neither county clerks nor commissioners have access to these files,” said the Colorado GOP.

“There are two unique passwords for every election equipment component, which are kept in separate places and held by different parties. Passwords can only be used with physical in-person access to a voting system,” a spokesperson for the SoS’ office said.

“To be very clear, we do not see this as a full security threat to the state. This is not a security threat,” Democrat Secretary of State Jena Griswold told 9NEWS.

Good thing they’ve got several days after the election to sort this all out, right?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 15:45

Pennsylvania News Station Apologizes For Showing Presidential Election ‘Results’

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Pennsylvania News Station Apologizes For Showing Presidential Election ‘Results’

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

A news station in Pennsylvania was forced to apologize for flashing up the US presidential election results in the state as part of a “test” that wasn’t supposed to be seen by viewers.

WNEP, an ABC affiliate, flashed up the results for Pennsylvania during its broadcast of the Formula 1 race in Mexico City and they were on screen for several minutes.

You’ll never guess who “won”.

Kamala Harris, of course, beating Trump by 52 per cent to 47 per cent of the vote.

According to the test run, Kamala received 3,293,712 votes compared to Trump’s 2,997,793.

After viewers expressed confusion at what they were witnessing, the news station was forced to explain what happened.

“Those numbers should not have appeared on the screen, and it was an error by WNEP that they did,” said the station.

“The numbers seen on the screen were randomly generated test results sent out to help news organizations make sure their equipment is working properly in advance of election night.”

“WNEP regrets the error and apologizes for any confusion. We have taken steps to ensure that it does not happen again.”

No votes are actually counted in Pennsylvania until after 8pm on election day.

WNEP is owned by Tegna Inc., the chairman of which is Howard D. Elias, a longtime Democrat donor.

Its President and CEO is Mike Steib, who donated to Joe Biden’s presidential campaign in 2020 and has also donated to several Democrat PACs.

Don’t worry though, it was just a test!

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 13:20