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Russia Is Experiencing Its “Fastest Economic Growth In The Last Decade”

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Russia Is Experiencing Its “Fastest Economic Growth In The Last Decade”

Authored by Liz Heflin via Remix News,

Richard Connolly, a junior research fellow at the Royal Institute of Shared Services in London and an expert on the Russian economy, told CBS News that the number of small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Russia has reached an unprecedented level, writes Do Rzeczy.

In the wake of many Western companies leaving the country or suspending their operations due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they were quickly replaced by Russian versions.

So, instead of Starbucks, they have Stars Coffee, instead of Zara, they have Maag, and instead of Coca-Cola, Dobry Cola.

Back in April, Doby reported that its 2023 earnings were quadruple the profits made in 2022.

Connolly says that sanctions have proven ineffective, essentially resulting in sanctions evasion becoming a sector in and of itself.

This means that banned Western goods are still entering the country, with Russians able to purchase most of the products they were able to buy before the war.

This includes cars such as Mercedes and Chrysler, which end up in Russia via third countries such as Georgia, Kazakhstan and China.

Their price is higher because of the tortuous import route, but wealthy Russians can afford them. 

“Many Russian small businesses have an incentive to buy goods on foreign markets, bring them back to Russia and sell them at very good margins,” Connolly says.

The expert notes that before the war, Russian investment in the economy was poor, but now Russia is experiencing its “fastest economic growth in the last decade.”

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 11:40

China Planning 10 Trillion Yuan In Extra Debt For Fiscal Stimulus; Oil, Commodities Rebound

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China Planning 10 Trillion Yuan In Extra Debt For Fiscal Stimulus; Oil, Commodities Rebound

After suffering its biggest drop in two years after the latest iteration of the performative “war” between Israel and Iran ended with yet another dud, oil has rebounded and is 1.4% higher after a Reuters report that China is considering approving the issuance of over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package which is expected to be further bolstered if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election.

Citing two sources with knowledge of the matter, Reuters said that China’s top legislative body, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), is looking to approve the fresh fiscal package, including 6 trillion yuan which would partly be raised via special sovereign bonds, on the last day of a meeting to be held from Nov. 4-8. The 6-trillion-yuan worth of debt would be raised over three years including 2024, said the sources, adding the proceeds would primarily be used to help local governments address off-the-books debt risks.

The planned total amount, to be raised by issuing both special treasury and local government bonds, equates to over 8% of the output of the world’s second-largest economy, which has been hit hard by a protracted property sector crisis and ballooning debt of local governments.

Oil prices climbed along with industrial metals on the Reuters report; WTI was up 1% near $68 a barrel while copper rises 0.9%.

The Reuters report was the first confirmation of speculation among financial analysts, who have said in recent weeks they expect Beijing to consider a 10 trillion yuan stimulus.

The spending plans suggest that Beijing has switched into a higher stimulus gear to prop up the economy although it’s still not  the 2008-like bazooka that some investors have been calling for. That said, after starting with a bang in late September, all subsequent Chinese stimulus reports have been whimper after whimper as Beijing failed to provide much needed details or clarity for what is actually coming, resulting in a sharp unwind of the 30% surge in Chinese stocks observed at the end of Q3.

Which may explain why the Reuters sources cautioned that the plans are not finalized yet and remain subject to changes; i.e., yet another dud may be on deck for a country which desperately needs trillion in stimulus yet has shown unprecedented restraint in actually putting money where its money is.

As part of its latest fiscal package, the NPC Standing Committee is also expected to greenlight all or part of up to 4 trillion yuan worth of special-purpose bonds for idle land and property purchases over the next five years, said the sources. Local governments would be allowed to raise that amount on top of their usual annual issuance quota, which mainly funds infrastructure spending. The quota stood at 3.9 trillion yuan this year and 3.8 trillion in 2023.

The latest move is aimed at enhancing local governments’ ability to manage land supply, and alleviate liquidity and debt pressures on both local governments and property developers, they added. Special-purpose bonds are a tool for off-budget debt financing used by Chinese local governments, with the proceeds raised typically earmarked for specific policy objectives, such as infrastructure expenditures.

Should the NPC Standing Committee approve these issuances in full instead of in stages, it could increase the total stimulus size to over 10 trillion yuan, they added. An average of 2 trillion yuan in new central government debt annually underscores an urgency in Beijing to shore up the economy. Late in 2023, China issued 1 trillion yuan in sovereign bonds to bolster flood-prevention infrastructure and meet its roughly 5% economic growth target.

China’s top legislative body generally holds its meeting every two months – in the second half of even-numbered months. As per the parliament’s 2024 work agenda, released in May, a standing committee session was planned for October. The forthcoming meeting was initially planned for late October before being rescheduled to early November, said one of the sources.

The meeting’s timing, which coincides with the week of the U.S. presidential vote on Nov. 5, offers Beijing greater flexibility to adjust the fiscal package including the total size, based on the election outcome, said the sources.

Reuters notes that Beijing may announce a stronger fiscal package if Trump wins a second presidency as his return to the White House is expected intensify the economic headwinds for China. Trump, who has gained in recent polls to erase much of the early advantage of Kamala Harris, has vowed to impose 60% duties on imports from China.

Beijing started this year with plans to issue 1 trillion yuan in special sovereign debt already in place, but that sum is widely expected to be increased as growth has been drifting off target and economists said a longer-term structural slowdown could be in play. All the same, the planned fiscal spending falls short of the firepower deployed in 2008, when Beijing’s 4 trillion yuan in fiscal stimulus in response to the global financial crisis accounted for 13% of GDP at the time.

The extra money fueled a property market frenzy and led to unfettered lending to local government financing vehicles, which municipalities used to get around official borrowing restrictions.

As part of the overall fiscal spending, China is also considering approving other stimulus initiatives worth at least one trillion yuan, such as a consumption boost including trade-in and renewal of consumer goods, said the sources. Another trillion yuan could also be raised via special treasury bonds for capital injection into large state banks, said one of the sources and another source with knowledge of the matter.

At the end of the day, however, even the 10 trillion yuan package may be insufficient to kickstart the economy. The reason, as explained in “Why China’s Rally Won’t Have Legs“, is that China’s peak credit impulse – the all important reflationary variable that propagates across the global economy – has dwindled, and so has the boost to growth.

In other words, to achieve the same level of stimulus as a % of GDP, China would need to inject tens of trillions more. And since it can’t do that, at least not without its middle class kicking and screaming (literally), China’s house price will continue to slide, having recently tumbled by a record YoY amount…

… and so on, until one day Beijing will have no choice but to unleash a real bazooka, one which will spark a reflationary tidal wave across the globe.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 09:15

US Home Prices Remain Near Record Highs… As Mortgage Rates Re-Surge

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US Home Prices Remain Near Record Highs… As Mortgage Rates Re-Surge

With mortgage rates re-accelerating, the housing market faces another (worsening) affordability crisis – all since The Fed cut rates – and just to add some more pain to that, S&P CoreLogic’s Case Shiller data for August (released today) shows home prices in the top 20 cities in America rising 0.35% MoM (hotter than the 0.20% expected). However, despite the beat, home prices rose just 5.2% YoY (down from 5.93% in July) and the fifth straight monthly slowdown in the YoY growth…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest YoY growth since September 2023… but we note that home prices remain near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The pace of home price appreciation continues to track bank reserves at The Fed (lower on a lag)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, the funniest thing is that as price appreciation actually begins to slow (a good thing for affordability at the margin), The Fed has slashed interest-rates (which one would expect will juice home prices once again?).

But despitye the initial drop in mortgage rates, they have soared recently back above 7.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

Will The Fed ignite another houosing bubble and re-heat CPI in an Arthur-Burns-esque 1970s redux?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 09:09

Why Nobody Believes The “Data”: Surging Prices Of Everyday Items Are Excluded From CPI

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Why Nobody Believes The “Data”: Surging Prices Of Everyday Items Are Excluded From CPI

As inflation remains painfully high for American consumers, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is woefully inadequate in terms of reflecting reality.

(AP Photo/Pamela Smith, File)

For starters, CPI excludes several significant costs faced by households today – ranging from property taxes to soaring interest payments.

While price levels remain notably higher than before the pandemic, according to the CPI, inflation has slowed – reaching a 2.4% increase for the year ending in September. That’s only part of the picture, Bloomberg reports.

“The CPI is capturing the goods and services that you purchased for consumption, but there are things that affect your cost of living that are outside of that,” explains Steve Reed, a BLS economist. For instance, interest charges on rising consumer debt are largely absent from the CPI. Roughly $628 billion in revolving credit card debt now bears an average interest rate of about 22%, yet these costs aren’t reflected in consumer inflation data.

“It’s one thing that’s definitely impacting the way people spend money,” said Pete Earle, economist at the American Institute for Economic Research and creator of the everyday price index that aims to track daily purchases that can’t be easily avoided. “It’s not really inflation, but it’s definitely something that should be taken into account.”

Another gap in the CPI is its exclusion of property-related expenses. While it measures the cost of personal property insurance, it overlooks the cost of insuring the physical home – a critical oversight as climate-related risks drive premiums higher. According to Bloomberg analyst Andrew John Stevenson, omitting this from the CPI means that rising insurance premiums are only partially reflected in the overall inflation data.

The CPI’s “basket” also leaves out several items that have become significant in Americans’ budgets, including restaurant tips. Similarly, legal but selectively regulated goods, such as marijuana in some states, and gambling expenses remain unaccounted for. This reality adds to the perception that official inflation metrics don’t fully capture the true cost of living for many Americans.

The BLS admits that CPI falls short, writing on its website: “The CPI does not necessarily measure your own experience with price change,” adding “A national average reflects millions of individual price experiences; it seldom mirrors a particular consumer’s experience.”

The pricing challenges aren’t unique to the CPI. For example, the personal consumption expenditures price index, produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, also has some quirks when it comes to measuring certain expenses like health care. While the Fed prefers the PCE gauge, White House economists say that the CPI tends to more closely track consumers’ actual out-of-pocket spending. -Bloomberg

While inflation may appear to be abating on paper, Americans’ financial reality is more complex – influenced by costs that extend beyond the basket of goods traditionally tracked by federal data.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 08:40

After “Colossal” Exodus Of Subscribers, WaPo Boss Bezos Explains “The Hard Truth” About Not Endorsing Kamala

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After “Colossal” Exodus Of Subscribers, WaPo Boss Bezos Explains “The Hard Truth” About Not Endorsing Kamala

In what is likely even more harrowing for the Op-Ed editors at The Washington Post, Jeff Bezos has just penned an explainer for his decision to not allow the liberal rag to endorse Kamala.

We present the opinion piece here in full (with some emphasis by us) – this is shocking levels of honesty!

The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media

The credibility gap can be bridged by independence.

In the annual public surveys about trust and reputation, journalists and the media have regularly fallen near the very bottom, often just above Congress. But in this year’s Gallup poll, we have managed to fall below Congress. Our profession is now the least trusted of all. Something we are doing is clearly not working.

Let me give an analogy. Voting machines must meet two requirements. They must count the vote accurately, and people must believe they count the vote accurately. The second requirement is distinct from and just as important as the first.

Likewise with newspapers. We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion. It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility (and, therefore, decline in impact), but a victim mentality will not help. Complaining is not a strategy. We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility.

Presidential endorsements do nothing to tip the scales of an election. No undecided voters in Pennsylvania are going to say, “I’m going with Newspaper A’s endorsement.” None. What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias. A perception of non-independence. Ending them is a principled decision, and it’s the right one. Eugene Meyer, publisher of The Washington Post from 1933 to 1946, thought the same, and he was right. By itself, declining to endorse presidential candidates is not enough to move us very far up the trust scale, but it’s a meaningful step in the right direction. I wish we had made the change earlier than we did, in a moment further from the election and the emotions around it. That was inadequate planning, and not some intentional strategy.

I would also like to be clear that no quid pro quo of any kind is at work here. Neither campaign nor candidate was consulted or informed at any level or in any way about this decision. It was made entirely internally. Dave Limp, the chief executive of one of my companies, Blue Origin, met with former president Donald Trump on the day of our announcement. I sighed when I found out, because I knew it would provide ammunition to those who would like to frame this as anything other than a principled decision. But the fact is, I didn’t know about the meeting beforehand. Even Limp didn’t know about it in advance; the meeting was scheduled quickly that morning. There is no connection between it and our decision on presidential endorsements, and any suggestion otherwise is false.

When it comes to the appearance of conflict, I am not an ideal owner of The Post. Every day, somewhere, some Amazon executive or Blue Origin executive or someone from the other philanthropies and companies I own or invest in is meeting with government officials. I once wrote that The Post is a “complexifier” for me. It is, but it turns out I’m also a complexifier for The Post.

You can see my wealth and business interests as a bulwark against intimidation, or you can see them as a web of conflicting interests. Only my own principles can tip the balance from one to the other. I assure you that my views here are, in fact, principled, and I believe my track record as owner of The Post since 2013 backs this up. You are of course free to make your own determination, but I challenge you to find one instance in those 11 years where I have prevailed upon anyone at The Post in favor of my own interests. It hasn’t happened.

Lack of credibility isn’t unique to The Post. Our brethren newspapers have the same issue. And it’s a problem not only for media, but also for the nation. Many people are turning to off-the-cuff podcasts, inaccurate social media posts and other unverified news sources, which can quickly spread misinformation and deepen divisions. The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite. More and more, we talk to ourselves. (It wasn’t always this way — in the 1990s we achieved 80 percent household penetration in the D.C. metro area.)

While I do not and will not push my personal interest, I will also not allow this paper to stay on autopilot and fade into irrelevance — overtaken by unresearched podcasts and social media barbs — not without a fight. It’s too important. The stakes are too high. Now more than ever the world needs a credible, trusted, independent voice, and where better for that voice to originate than the capital city of the most important country in the world? To win this fight, we will have to exercise new muscles. Some changes will be a return to the past, and some will be new inventions. Criticism will be part and parcel of anything new, of course. This is the way of the world. None of this will be easy, but it will be worth it. I am so grateful to be part of this endeavor. Many of the finest journalists you’ll find anywhere work at The Washington Post, and they work painstakingly every day to get to the truth. They deserve to be believed.

The irony, of course, is that the alt-media space (and most non-liberal reporters) have been saying much of this for years – only to be cajoled, banned, black-balled, refused-access.

The question is – now that Bezos has smashed the glass ceiling of elite aloofness – will we see the usual tsunami of screaming, hysterical resignations (“I could never work for someone who said those words in his out loud voice”) – or…

Is this the turning point – is this the moment when media reverts back to news and not opinion?

Where will all those ‘resigning’ reporters go to work if other media owners follow Bezos’ path? Substack? How’s that working out for the liberalati?

We suspect (strongly) that this will not be a quick turnaround. The blinkered libtard defense of all that is righteously progressive (and therefore ‘the truth’) will not disappear overnight.

A generation of so-called ‘journalism students’ need to be de-programmed from “their truth” (preferably not in camps), and they (and their professors) won’t go quietly into the night, that is for sure.

And along those lines, shortly after Bezos dropped this op-ed, another major mainstream news outlet decided NOT to endorse Kamala…

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, Jeff Bezos’ decision for The Washington Post not to endorse a presidential candidate this year has resulted in a total shitshow for the progressive newspaper, with staffing members having epic meltdowns and editor-at-large Robert Kagan (husband of Victoria Nuland) walking off the job on Friday. Even more troubling for the paper is the mass exodus of liberal subscribers being reported by NPR News on Monday afternoon. 

According to two sources within the paper and familiar with the subscriber exodus, over 200,000 digital subscription cancellations had occurred by Monday afternoon. 

Not all cancellations take effect immediately. Still, the figure represents about 8% of the paper’s paid circulation of 2.5 million subscribers, which includes print as well. The number of cancellations continued to grow Monday afternoon. -NPR

Former Post Executive Editor Marcus Brauchli told NPR, “The problem is, people don’t know why the decision was made. We basically know the decision was made, but we don’t know what led to it.”

The editorial page editor, David Shipley, told colleagues that WaPo’s publisher, Will Lewis, said the reason for the lack of a Harris-Walz endorsement was to create an “independent space” where the newspaper does not tell people for whom to vote.

WaPo has mostly endorsed Democrats for nearly a century (with only 3 Republicans since 1928): 

• 1932 to 1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democrat)

• 1948: Thomas Dewey (Republican)

• 1952 & 1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican)

• 1960: John F. Kennedy (Democrat)

• 1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (Democrat)

• 1968: Hubert Humphrey (Democrat)

• 1972: George McGovern (Democrat)

• 1976 & 1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)

• 1984: Walter Mondale (Democrat)

• 1988: Michael Dukakis (Democrat)

• 1992 & 1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat)

• 2000: Al Gore (Democrat)

• 2004: John Kerry (Democrat)

• 2008: Barack Obama (Democrat)

• 2012: Barack Obama (Democrat)

• 2016: Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

• 2020: Joe Biden (Democrat)

• 2024: Neutral 

Back to WaPo’s mass exodus of subs, Google search data shows “cancel Washington Post subscription” has gone parabolic nationwide since the weekend. Most cancelations are based in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia. 

And Amazon cancellations, too?

This is true…

The move comes after the Los Angeles Times declined to endorse Kamala Harris. And perhaps the rationale given the timing – just days before the presidential election –  comes as the race is neck-and-neck with former President Trump. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 08:35

Key Market Indicators For November 2024

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Key Market Indicators For November 2024

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch.

Note: If you are unfamiliar with basic technical analysis, this video is a short tutorial.

Seasonality and Breakout Patterns

As discussed recently, Seasonality is a crucial key market trend in November. Historically, the stock market transitions from the weaker summer months into a stronger end-of-year rally, often dubbed the “Santa Claus Rally,” beginning mid-December. On a rolling 6-month basis, November to April has both the highest percentage returns and the highest hit rate at 77%.

The seasonal trend is reinforced by the weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) signal crossing into bullish territory, hinting at upward momentum through the year-end. The previous two seasonal “buy signals” have worked well for investors. However, that signal does not preclude a short-term correction to moving average support levels.

As noted in that previous article, the return of corporate share buybacks will be an important support to the market, adding nearly $6 billion daily to large-cap purchases.

Sectors to Watch: Tech and Industrials Lead

With interest rates declining, cyclical sectors—like industrials and technology—are gaining strength. Large-cap tech companies, particularly the “Magnificent 7,” are all holding above critical moving averages. Despite more bearish investors suggesting the “AI” trade is done, the price action continues to suggest strong institutional participation, which could drive the Nasdaq higher into year-end. Such is particularly the case given that hedge funds remain significantly underweight U.S. equities versus the benchmark. On a risk-adjusted return basis, we are already seeing them increase exposure to “catch up” on performance into year-end.

Notably, these stocks generate all estimated earnings growth for the S&P 500 index.

Meanwhile, the industrial and materials sectors, which were consolidating from March to August, are beginning to trend higher. Such is due to expectations of a Presidential election outcome that would lead to stronger economic growth, oil and gas investments, tax cuts, and reshoring of U.S. manufacturing.

Those policies would also generate stronger domestic employment, higher wage growth, larger investments in technology, and increased loan demand from the financial sector. This is likely why we have also seen improvement in those sectors lately.

Back to seasonality, it is also notable that many of the stocks that drive the Technology and Financial sectors are also some of the largest purchasers of their shares. As that window opens into year-end, additional price support should be provided.

Volatility Rising

Of course, while the market may be betting on a certain election outcome, over the last month, the rise in the Volatility Index (VIX) signals potential unease beneath the surface. Typically, VIX declines as equities rise, reflecting lower risk sentiment. However, the current divergence suggests investors continue to hedge against an unanticipated or contested election outcome. The chart shows the $VIX index inverted against the S&P 500 index. Normally, there is a high correlation between the inverted volatility index and the market. However, the non-correlation is currently extremely elevated, suggesting professionals are hedging their portfolios against downside risk.

While not an immediate red flag, this disconnect warrants caution. Investors should monitor for potential market reversals or volatility spikes, as rising VIX amid bullish markets can indicate heightened sensitivity to external shocks. However, if the election passes as anticipated, the reversal of volatility hedges could also provide an additional tailwind for equities into year-end.

The key point for investors is to be aware of short-term risks in the market despite a stronger bullish view into year-end. Therefore, continue to adjust strategies to incorporate volatility-based stops or other hedges to manage risks effectively.

Momentum Indicators: Negative Divergences

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator offer mixed signals on the broad market. While the broad market remains bullish, holding above key moving averages, relative strength and momentum show a negative divergence.

These negative divergences have often preceded short to intermediate-term corrective market actions. At this point, investors tend to make two mistakes. The first is overreacting to these technical signals, thinking a more severe correction is coming. The second is taking action too soon.

Yes, these signals often precede corrections, but there are also periods of consolidation when the market trades sideways. Secondly, reversals of overbought conditions tend to be shallow in a momentum-driven bullish market. These corrections often find support at the 20 and 50-day moving averages (DMA), but the 100 and 200-DMAs are not outside regular corrective periods.

Navigating Market Uncertainty and Upcoming Catalysts

The November outlook marks a critical period with macroeconomic and election uncertainties still in play. The Fed’s dovish tone remains encouraging for equity markets, but geopolitical risks and U.S. election developments could inject volatility. As we approach the year-end, investors must remain agile and ready to respond to sudden market shifts. Therefore, investors may want to consider several strategies:

  1. Increase Equity Exposure: Large-cap stocks historically perform well during this period. You could consider increasing exposure to diversified index funds or sector ETFs that align with historical trends. If you are a stock picker, focus on large-cap, highly liquid names that generate the strongest earnings growth.
  2. Review Portfolio Risk: While the MACD buy signal is a positive indicator, you should assess your portfolio’s risk tolerance and ensure it aligns with your long-term goals.
  3. Rebalance Allocations: Now may be a good time to rebalance by reducing positions in riskier assets or diversifying across asset classes.
  4. Use Stop-Loss Orders: To manage downside risk, consider using stop-loss orders.

While the markets remain very bullish currently, rebalancing risk may lead to short-term underperformance while the “sun is shining.” However, a steady practice of risk controls ensures you won’t be caught without an umbrella which it “begins to rain.”

“The trick to navigating markets is not trying to “time” the market to sell exactly at the top. That is impossible. Successful long-term management is understanding when “enough is enough” and being willing to take profits and protect your gains. For many stocks currently, that is the situation we are in.” – TheBullBearReport

As we head into the Mega-cap earnings reports, that advice remains relevant this week. The trick will be to navigate the outcome without making emotionally driven decisions.

Continue to follow the rules and stick to your discipline. (Read our article on “What Is RIsk” for a complete list of rules)

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 08:25

“We’ve Reached Our Limit!” Berlin Police Chief Warns Of Unsustainable Immigration Amid Soaring Migrant Crime

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“We’ve Reached Our Limit!” Berlin Police Chief Warns Of Unsustainable Immigration Amid Soaring Migrant Crime

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Germany has reached its limit on immigration with migrant-related violent crime on the rise and resources strained, a leading law enforcement chief has claimed.

In an interview with RBB, Berlin Police Chief Barbara Slowik voiced concerns over the impact of immigration on the city and the broader nation, suggesting that the current levels of immigration are unsustainable, both financially and socially.

“I believe that a limit has been reached as to what is affordable,” she told the broadcaster.

She emphasized the need for a comprehensive societal response to address the growing number of violent incidents involving immigrants and underscored the importance of integrating immigrants into Germany’s democratic values from a young age, with programs beginning in kindergarten.

“This is important for our constitutional state and therefore for our democracy,” she added, insisting it was vital to restore law and order to help make German residents feel safer and instill public confidence back into law enforcement.

As reported by Tagesspiegel, Germany’s crime rate has risen 5.5 percent over the past year, with 5.94 million cases recorded. Notably, the increase in non-German suspects — up 17.8 percent compared to a 1 percent rise among German nationals — has prompted heightened attention to crime prevention.

These figures don’t tell the whole story, as they do not differentiate the number of perpetrators with German citizenship who have a migration background from those who are German-born. Naturalizations in Berlin have surged dramatically in 2024, more than tripling compared to last year, driven by the liberalization of German naturalization laws.

In the first eight months of this year, 28,716 foreign nationals in the city applied for German citizenship — up from 18,018 for the whole of 2023. This sharp rise is linked to a nationwide reform of the citizenship law, which now allows naturalization after just five years of residence in Germany, instead of the previous eight. In some cases, foreigners can apply after just three years.

Berlin’s Interior Senator Iris Spranger recently announced intentions to expand police powers to enhance public safety. According to a spokesperson from the state interior ministry, upcoming amendments to the General Security and Order Act (ASOG) will broaden police authority, including granting officers access to biometric data, encrypted communications, and traffic data. These tools aim to improve crime prevention and address potential terrorism threats.

Additional measures under consideration include introducing electronic monitoring in high-risk cases, such as domestic violence. The proposed changes reflect a push toward using advanced technology to prevent crime more effectively.

Slowik also proposed the creation of a closed facility to house young migrant offenders temporarily — a proposal aimed at removing repeat juvenile offenders from environments that may foster crime and provide them with focused intervention.

However, a representative from the state interior ministry confirmed that no plans currently exist for such a facility.

Rea more here…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 06:30

Kamala Supporter Outlines ‘Survival Guide’ If Trump Wins

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Kamala Supporter Outlines ‘Survival Guide’ If Trump Wins

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

A Kamala Harris supporter provided a survival guide for leftists if Donald Trump wins the presidency, suggesting that Democrats would be rounded up and put in camps by a fascist government if they don’t keep quiet about politics.

The leftist suggested that if Trump wins, “MAGAheads” will proceed to engage in violent attacks against Americans who voted for Harris, despite the fact that this didn’t happen in 2016 and it was in fact leftists who reacted by engaging in violent riots.

“Keep your mouths shut,” asserted the leftist, advising that Democrats should hide the fact that they know anyone who is transgender, an immigrant or “left-leaning” in general.

“Anyone you don’t know that tries to talk about politics around you, you shut that shit down immediately because that is fishing for information and people they can report,” he added.

The Harris supporter went on to suggest that countless people, including immigrants, will need to “flee for their own safety” and that Democrats can help by not identifying them to MAGA fascists.

“Do not brag about the people you have helped, do not tell others about the people you have helped, keep your mouth shut,” he emphasized.

The leftist went on to urge that literally any subject that gets raised which is remotely related to politics should be answered with the words, “I don’t talk about politics.”

“It’s gonna hurt but that’s what’s gonna help you and others survive,” he absurdly claims, adding, “These are the ground rules for surviving a fascist government, which is 100 per cent what Donald Trump has said on camera he wants to put in place if he gets re-elected.

Donald Trump has never said such a thing on camera or anywhere else.

The leftist’s final piece of advice is for Harris supporters to buy guys and take part in firearms safety training to defend themselves and also for them to all delete their social media profiles permanently.

He concluded by saying following his advice could be the difference between “walking free and being in a camp.”

Of course, there is absolutely no evidence that a Trump administration would launch a fascist takeover of government if he is elected, outside of Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers and legacy media talking heads ludicrously fanning the flames of hysteria.

As we previously highlighted, pollster Mark Halperin warned that America would undergo its worst mental health crisis ever if Donald Trump wins the presidency.

Halperin said that the fallout would be unprecedented and sustained, suggesting that the backlash to Trump’s 2016 victory will be dwarfed by the utter deluge of cope and seethe that will unfold after November 5th.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 05:45

The Changed Meaning Of Nationalism

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The Changed Meaning Of Nationalism

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Few words in the English language have such migratory meanings as nationalism.

It has changed again in our time.

Today it suggests self-determination of peoples against a growing global hegemon in a range of areas from finance to agriculture to health to the uses of the military and surveillance.

Those who call themselves nationalists affirm the rights of a people in a defined geography to manage their own lives apart from impositions of the neoliberal order, which is deeply weakened as compared with a decade ago.

The book that set this recent change in motion is “The Virtue of Nationalism” by Yoram Hazony, published in 2018.

He argues that nationalism—a wide diversity of governing principles among sovereign nations—is essential for the preservation of freedom, tradition, and cultural meaning. It is not aggressive but merely protective, a barrier to impositions by international agencies, manipulative finance, and a howling secular media. The book became a sensation among conservatives mainly because it broke a taboo of the use of the term.

When I first read it, I was fully prepared to oppose the idea. Having been intellectually shaped in a period of the old consensus, I had presumed that all forms of nationalism have a toxic root as compared with the aspiration of universal human rights and global cultural norms. The experience of pandemic controls, imposed simultaneously the world over, shifted my own views because it was a paradigmatic case of the illiberalism of globalism. No longer did internationalism imply freedom; quite the opposite. This experience forced me to consider what I might have missed.

There were only three nations that resisted compulsory measures such as lockdowns, business closures, population masking, and then shot mandates. They were Sweden, Tanzania, and Nicaragua.

In each case, the reason came down to some form of: that is not how we do that here. Sweden embraced traditional public health principles. Nicaragua said that lockdowns would harm their people. Tanzania rejected lockdowns because something seemed sketchy about the whole scheme.

World media howled in fury at these three nations, hoping for failure from them all, as if to punish any country that dared to go a different way.

All three ended up with similar or better health outcomes without having destroyed their citizens’ lives or trampling on rights and liberties in law. In practical terms, the COVID response wrecked the association many people (including me) held between globalism and freedom.

Globalism today is more likely to be seen as a danger not only to sovereignty but also to the rights of peoples.

The controversy over nationalism began in the late 19th century as multinational empires began to fall apart and new nations were formed out of language groups, ethnicities, and religious groupings in France, Germany, Spain, and Italy. To shore up the status of the remnants of the Holy Roman Empire under ecclesiastical control was the whole point of the calling of the first Vatican Council in 1869. The Pope sought affirmation of his own political infallibility in order to retain the Papal states, but that effort failed (the council only affirmed doctrinal infallibility under rare conditions). A century later, a second Vatican Council made the point and affirmed the rights of religious liberty.

In between those two periods, the meaning of nationalism shifted one way then another. The great theorist of nationalism in the late 19th century was Ernst Renan and his famous speech “What Is a Nation?” (1882). The essay still holds up as a long history of the idea of the nation, and sets forth reasonable parameters concerning central principles of organizing them. He delineates five factors: religion, language, territory, heritage, and ethnicity (race), each of which can be benign or threatening depending on circumstances.

The essay was just what was needed at these times, and ended up having great influence following the Great War, which finally ended shattering the Habsburg and Prussia monarchies and codifying democracy as the preferred political system. Russia’s revolution introduced further trauma as that monarchy too collapsed. Looking back, it is a wonder that the UK monarchy served the period at all but it was only through making every compromise possible with parliamentary control plus the affirmation of religious liberty.

The self-determination of nations became the central slogan of postwar policy, a slogan pushed by the Woodrow Wilson administration as the map of Europe was redrawn in ways that proved unsustainable. Nonetheless, in those years, nationalism was regarded as benign and even necessary for peace, even as elites rallied around new globalist institutions such as the League of Nations as guarantors of the principle of non-aggression. Self-determination generally affirmed the right of a people to govern themselves through plebiscite.

Article 22 of the League of Nations said:

“To those colonies and territories which as a consequence of the late war have ceased to be under the sovereignty of the States which formerly governed them and which are inhabited by peoples not yet able to stand by themselves under the strenuous conditions of the modern world, there should be applied the principle that the well-being and development of such peoples form a sacred trust of civilisation …”

The controversies over nationalism were hardly finished, however, as democratic institutions in Germany collapsed following economic crisis and political upheaval. What took its place was the aggressive nationalism of the Nazi Party together with the rise of Imperial Japan, leading to a repeat and intensification of the first world war. Out of this experience came the discrediting of the nationalist idea, particularly as it pertained to race and language. The German attempt to cobble together a racial state out of lost territory had plunged the world into the most murderous conflict in the history of humanity.

Following the war, globalism took center stage again with the creation of the International Monetary Fund, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the World Bank, and the United Nations, while multinational alliances dominated much of the world. Nationalism was discredited yet again, and that’s where we stood for the better part of four decades. The crackup of the Soviet Union and its satellites changed the constellation yet again, as break-off states recaptured their historic names and many peoples in the world found new meaning in national identity.

Since 1990, the struggle between globalism and nationalism has been a defining feature of world politics but it took time to hit Western industrialized democracies. With the UK decision to withdraw from the European Union, a new nationalism took hold that was resisted strongly by globalist ambitions.

Was the new nationalism liberal? That’s a complicated question. In places yes, and, in places, no. The drive toward immigration restriction was an inevitable consequence of refugee upheavals all over Europe and the United States. The push to repudiate the World Trade Organization’s ambition for a tariff-free world came after decades of industrial loss. All of this was already taking place when the pandemic controls hit with stunning ferocity, as the World Health Organization imposed experimental methods of virus control—as if governments could somehow conquer the microbial kingdom through force.

The bitter combination of lockdowns, the refugee crisis, and sketchy plans for zero emissions that threaten industrialization itself kicked the nationalist spirit into overdrive, as populist movements have swept the world. The two sides have lined up in predictable ways: those advocating sovereignty and those wanting to preserve what remains of the neoliberal order. That is the essential dynamic of our times.

Where does that leave freedom lovers in their opinions about nationalism? It puts us where we were back in the 1880s with Renan’s outlook: whether and to what extent freedom is best guaranteed by the national principle depends on time and place. Regardless, based on what we are seeing in politics today, there is no stopping the eventual replacement of the neoliberal order with a world of sovereign nations, some liberal and some not.

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Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 05:00

World’s Most Consumed Vegetable Oil Hits Two-Year High Amid Sticky Food Inflation

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World’s Most Consumed Vegetable Oil Hits Two-Year High Amid Sticky Food Inflation

Palm oil futures surged to a two-year high on Monday amid mounting concerns over tightening supplies. As a staple edible oil for over three billion people, especially in Asia, soaring prices are a worrisome trend: global food inflation may be sticky. 

Bloomberg reports palm oil futures reached the highest level since July 2022 on Monday morning. The vegetable oil has jumped more than 15% this month and is on track for the third consecutive month of gains on production woes across top-growing regions. 

The latest data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association shows palm oil production is estimated to drop to 51 million tons in Indonesia for the year, down from 54.8 million in 2023. 

“The tropical oil has been strengthening on weaker output in Indonesia and Malaysia, which collectively account for more than 80% of global supply. Older trees and weather disruptions crimp production at a time when demand is rising. Firmer prices could boost food costs in top buyers India and China,” Bloomberg noted.

Higher vegetable oil prices come as the latest print from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ Food Price Index, which tracks the international prices of a basket of globally traded food, averaged 124.4 in September, up 3% from August and 2.1% higher versus the same month one year ago. 

FAO’s September rise was the first YoY increase in 18 months. 

About one year ago, Sara Menker, founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, warned in a Bloomberg interview that the current global food crisis is ‘much worse than 2008’. 

In late 2020, SocGen’s Albert Edwards started to warn about the Federal Reserve blowing bubbles during the Covid pandemic and how it could spark a surge in food prices and the usually ongoing risks, such as social-economic instabilities. 

Food inflation is very sticky and will remain so through the end of the decade – if not longer. 

Our advice to readers: Buy farmland.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 04:15