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Stocks ‘Squeeze’ Higher, Crude Crushed, Bitcoin Bid Ahead Of Catalyst-Heavy Week

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Stocks ‘Squeeze’ Higher, Crude Crushed, Bitcoin Bid Ahead Of Catalyst-Heavy Week

Today saw the quiet (short squeeze higher) before the storm of risk catalysts ahead this week (including 41% of SPX earnings and a handful of key macro data – JOLTS, GDP, PCE, NFP). But October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity was better than expected today, adding to momentum in the Citi US Macro Surprise Index…

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘good’ data sent rate-cut expectations (hawkishly) lower with 2024 now a coin toss between 1 and 2 25bp cuts and 2025 down to pricing in just 3 cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s trading desk noted that market volumes are down -5% and top of book depth is only $8.4mm with a “squeezy price action” evident in stocks: Bitcoin Equities (GSCBBTC1, +7.5%); China ADRs (GSXUCADR, +4.6%);  Non-Profitable Tech (GSXUNPTC, +3%) & Most Short Rolling (GSCBMSAL, +2.8%) – third major squeeze day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Mag7 stocks ended very marginally higher on the day after a short-squeeze open.

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that today marks the first day of the estimated open window period for corporate buybacks with ~50% in open window today. We have already seen a number of companies start entering into new 10b5-1 plans over the past week.

Taking all that into consideration, Small Caps were the days best performer (squeeze) while Nasdaq was the laggard (barely holding on to unchanged). The S&P lagged The Dow…

VIX was lower today but the vol term structure for the S&P 500 is very much anticipating some malarkey over the next couple of weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields pushed higher with the ‘Trump Trade’…

Source: Bloomberg

With yields up 3-4bps across the curve – but it was a wild day in bond-land with TSYs bid across Europe and then offered during most of the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the day unchanged after extending Friday’s gains, falling back then inching back up to unch…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged back up within a few ticks of $70,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices were clubbed like a baby seal today as the Iran-Israel theatrics seemed to calm traders minds and erase geopolitical risk premium….

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, USA Sovereign risk continues to rise quietly behind the scenes…

Source: Bloomberg

…as the world bids on the ultimate ‘insurance’ bet into an election surprise (red or blue sweep)…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 16:00

Treasury Trims Debt Estimates For Current Quarter, But Q1 Borrowing Surge To Follow

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Treasury Trims Debt Estimates For Current Quarter, But Q1 Borrowing Surge To Follow

Back in July and exactly one quarter ago, when the US Treasury published its debt issuance forecast for the balance of 2024, we said that the “anticipated numbers came close to our estimates for Q3, but well above our forecast for Q4” with the highlight being the Q4 debt issuance number which the Treasury estimated at $565 billion, $115 billion above our estimate of $450 billion (in part due to the Treasury higher TGA estimate of $700 billion vs our assumption of $650 billion).

Fast forward to today when ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement, at 3pm ET the Treasury published its debt sources and uses forecast for the current and coming quarters, and it showed that the Treasury trimmed its estimate for borrowing for the current quarter, while raising more debt than it previously expected in the quarter ended June 30; The Terasury also continues to expect a $700 billion cash balance at the end of the year, just before the federal debt ceiling kicks back in. Then as we enter 2025, the Treasury expects to raise $823 billion in new debt in the first calendar quarter of 2025, in large part because it expects that the Treasury cash balance will rise by $150 billion to $850 billion, or in other words, the Treasury does not assume another debt ceiling crisis which would push the cash balance sharply lower in Q1 and onward.

Here are the details from the Treasury statement:

  • During the July – September 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $762 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $886 billion, more than the $850 billion initially expected. In July 2024, Treasury estimated borrowing of $740 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion. Privately-held net marketable borrowing was $22 billion higher largely because of a $36 billion higher ending cash balance partially offset by higher net cash flows.  
  • During the October – December 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $546 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. The borrowing estimate is $19 billion lower than announced in July 2024, largely due to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance partially offset by lower net cash flows.

  • During the January – March 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $823 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. Of note,the end-of-March cash balance assumes another successful “enactment of a debt limit suspension or increase” which, assuming Trump becomes president, is virtually guaranteed will not happen. Indeed, should we get another debt ceiling crisis, the Treasury is quick to note that while the debt limit is not currently binding, “Treasury’s cash balance may be lower than assumed depending on several factors, including constraints related to the debt limit.” Translation: Q1 cash balances will be sharply lower than expected since the odds of a successful debt ceiling renegotiation are slim to none if Trump wins next week.

Here is the debt schedule in table format:

Source: Treasury

Dealers’ expectations for the new borrowing estimate had varied ahead of Monday’s release. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. expected a cut to $529 billion. But the team at BNP Paribas predicted an increase to $600 billion, based in part on October and November making up nearly a quarter of the federal government’s annual deficit, a gap that has been steadily widening.

Meanwhile, the projected $823 billion borrowing need in Q1 2025 would be the highest since the Sept 2023 quarter.

“We estimate that the Treasury will begin to limit bill supply in March 2025 and will cut bill supply aggressively in Q2,” a team of strategists a TD Securities including Gennadiy Goldberg wrote in a note, which would be expected since by then the Reverse Repo buffer will be all used up. Before then, however, the TD team said that  “with a debt ceiling increase or suspension likely in Q3, Treasury will then ramp up bill issuance aggressively as the cash balance is rebuilt to a more normal level.”

Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall didn’t expect officials this week to provide any color on their specific expectations for the upcoming debt ceiling timeline. He had predicted a $540 billion October-through-December borrowing estimate ahead of Monday’s release.

Today’s report comes ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly refunding announcement, when the Treasury will unveil its plans for long-term debt issuance. Bond dealers widely expect that the refunding auctions will total $125 billion for the third straight quarter. Many also expect a ramp up in Bill Issuance in the tail end of the year, which would be a big problem at a time when the Reverse Repo facility only holds just over $200 billion, and is in danger of being rapidly depleted, sparking another repo market crisis.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 15:48

“A US Green Light To Strike Iran Harder Might Be Given If Trump Wins”

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“A US Green Light To Strike Iran Harder Might Be Given If Trump Wins”

By Edwin de Groot of Rabobank

The attack by Israeli war planes on Iran Saturday was more limited than expected by many. Yet, Israel hit precise Iranian military targets while showing its ability to attack its nuclear scheme or oil. Projecting air power over distance and attacking Iran directly is not to be taken lightly even if this strike wasn’t the one markets feared. Iran is now vulnerable, its “ring of fire” around Israel extinguished (Hezbollah’s deterrence was supposed to stop a strike), and its regional reputation damaged. Even its ability to supply Russia with war materiel is now impacted. The ball is now in its court over whether it will drop its focus on Israel or escalate, especially via a push for a nuclear weapon. Biden had already promised US military aid to Israel as quid pro quo for a strike that doesn’t inflame the election; but after it, all bets are likely off.

A US green light to strike Iran harder might be given if Trump wins; and if Harris wins, Israel might proceed without US approval during Biden’s lame duck period. Oil prices were down more than $3/bbl this morning and we may see risk appetite supported by the events over the weekend. So, oil down, for now, but the geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are unresolved.

That the dollar actually strengthened (DXY up a tad this morning) is more likely to do with the increased political instability elsewhere in the world. In Georgia, the biggest ruling (and Kremlin-friendly) party Georgian Dream won 54% of the votes, according to the election commission. Its leader declared victory whilst the Georgian President, who is a supporter of greater EU-ties but lacks political power, called it a “Russian-style election”. At face value, it seems that Europe should not expect much rapprochement from the country any time soon. A similar thing could probably be said of Bulgaria, which just concluded the seventh election in four years. The Gerb party won, but with only 26% of the votes. The runner-up party took just over 15% of the votes, and so both together wouldn’t garner a majority. The third (far-right) party is a Kremlin-friendly one, and other than that there is a host of smaller parties. So political stability in Bulgaria seems far from assured.

But the biggest political shock took place in Japan over the weekend, with the country entering a fresh phase of political uncertainty. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba should probably have asked French President Macron some advice before he decided to call snap elections two weeks ago, as his gamble – too – backfired. The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito lost a significant number of seats in the ballot held on Sunday. And with 215 seats (down from 279) they came well short of the required 234 for a majority. The key reason for calling the election was a slush-fund scandal, association with which the LDP has been trying to shake off. It also means that Ishiba, in search for a majority coalition, may not be keen to rely on some LDP members that were kicked out of the party – and became independent members of parliament.

To form a stable coalition, the Prime Minister will now most likely have to broaden his coalition. That will not be easy given the number of seats he needs and the scattered landscape beyond the main opposition party CDP, which secured 148 seats according to NHK. Another option would be a minority government with limited partner agreements. Whatever Ishida’s next steps are, it seems likely the recent direction of policy, which included a focus on restoring public finances, will face pressure. Indeed, opposition parties have been pushing for more fiscal support for households who have been struggling with higher bills as wage increases have not kept up with the pace of cost of living increases. Moreover, Japan’s more hawkish posture with respect to defence and international partnerships with NATO members and even the BoJ’s plan to gradually return to a more normalized monetary policy, are likely to be challenged.

Market implied policy rates suggest a hike this week is quite unlikely (a less than 5% probability) but also for December the market only sees some 20% likelihood of a hike. Last week this was still seen as somewhat under 40%. Reflecting uncertainties, the yen fell to its lowest level against the dollar since the end of July, with USDJPY nearly hitting 154 this morning. This is likely to draw increased attention to the BoJ’s rate setting meeting this week.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 15:25

Trump: “Kamala Is Just A Vessel; We Are Running Against Something Far More Powerful”

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Trump: “Kamala Is Just A Vessel; We Are Running Against Something Far More Powerful”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

During a historic rally Sunday at Madison Square Garden, president Trump urged that Kamala Harris is purely “a vessel” and in reality the MAGA movement is fighting against “something far more powerful.”

Trump told the crowd, “We are not just running against Kamala — She means nothing. She is purely a vessel — We are running against something far bigger than Joe or Kamala and more powerful than them, which is a massive, vicious, crooked, radical left machine that runs today’s Democrat Party.”

Trump further asserted that Biden and Harris are “perfect vessels because they’ll never give them a hard time. They’ll do whatever they want.”

He continued, “I know many of them. It’s just an amorphous group of people. But they’re smart and they’re vicious, and we have to defeat them. And when I say the ‘enemy from within,’ the other side go crazy.”

Trump added that these people “are doing such harm to our country with their open border policies, record-setting inflation, ‘Green New Scam,’ and everything else they are doing. But we’re not going to let it happen any longer. We’re going to have the biggest victory in the history of our country on November 5 … We’re going to make America great again.”

Elsewhere during his speech, Trump urged that his party is one of real unity and inclusion, while the other side is intent on fomenting hatred and division.

“We bleed the same blood. We share the same home and we salute the same great American Flag. We are one people, one family, and one glorious nation under God,” Trump declared.

Trump vowed to make America stronger than ever before and to bring back the American Dream.

Trump told the crowd “I’m asking you to be excited about the future,” further urging “this will be America’s new golden age.”

The MSG event was a roaring success, despite deranged leftists demanding it be shut down claiming it was a literal ‘Nazi rally’.

If you’ve got a spare 11 hours, here’s the whole thing:

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 14:45

Ayatollah Khamenei Creates Hebrew-Language X Account, Which Gets Suspended In A Day

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Ayatollah Khamenei Creates Hebrew-Language X Account, Which Gets Suspended In A Day

The office of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had launched a new Hebrew-language account on Saturday. But a mere day later, on Sunday, it had become inaccessible.

Elon Musk’s X platform suspended the account for violating the rules of the site. Early Monday, a short message appeared on the suspended account stating, “X suspends accounts which violate the X Rules.”

It wasn’t immediately clear which rule or rules had been violated, but the account’s first message was a standard Islamic greeting which said, “In the name of God, the most merciful.”

The second post is translated as follows: “Zionists are making a miscalculation with respect to Iran. They don’t know Iran. They still haven’t been able to correctly understand the power, initiative, and determination of the Iranian people.”

This statement had also been issued on the English account, and was connected with a speech the Ayatollah gave. The messaging comes in the wake of the overnight Friday Israeli airstrikes on military facilities in Iran, in response to the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack on Israel.

But the message didn’t seem particularly threatening to Israel or any particular group – though it’s possible that X took issue with the Ayatollah directing a message in Hebrew to “Zionists”… perhaps.

The Islamic Republic says “limited damage” took place at sites in three provinces and has touted the right to hit back; however, the tit-for-tat is likely to cease at this point.

Khamenei along with some other Iranian government leaders maintains several foreign language accounts on X. According to Fortune:

This isn’t the first time Khamenei has seen a suspension or removal from social media. In February, Meta removed Facebook and Instagram accounts for the supreme leader over his support of the militant group Hamas after its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

But ironically US-based social media platforms including X and Facebook have remained officially blocked within Iran for years – bans which have come especially in the wake of occasional large-scale anti-government protests, including the recent unrest related to the compulsory hijab law for women. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 14:25

Will Donald Trump Get His Revenge?

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Will Donald Trump Get His Revenge?

Authored by Susan Quinn via AmericanThinker.com,

There’s almost nothing that Donald Trump likes better than throwing his adversaries off their game; he likes to be unpredictable, confusing and in charge. It gives him an edge in achieving his goals.

He’s kept his adversaries guessing to the extent that he will pay them back for their lawfare and deep-state machinations, and not surprisingly, they expect the worst. Yet he has said repeatedly that victory in the election will be his revenge. They don’t know what to make of it.

A Trump senior advisor made the following observation:

“President Trump has made clear that success will be the best revenge,” Trump senior adviser Brian Hughes said.

“When others have weaponized government and legal institutions against him for political interference, he will return these institutions to their constitutional purpose of protecting Americans’ liberty and creating a safe and prosperous nation again.”

But since the political Left almost always chooses to see deceit in Trump’s comments, they don’t believe he is sincere.

He made it even more unpredictable for them with this:

“Look when this election is over, based on what they’ve done, I would have every right to go after them,” Trump said.

“And it’s easy because it’s Joe Biden, and you see all the criminality, all of the money that’s going into the family and him, all of this money from China, from Russia, from Ukraine.”

And then Trump underscored it again, wanting to be sure there was no doubt in the minds of the Left that he could act against them:

When asked during a Fox News interview on Wednesday if he plans to use the justice system to punish his political opponents, Trump said: “When this election is over, based on what they’ve done, I would have every right to go after them.”

Note that in both of the previous quotations, Trump commented on what he could do, not on what he would do.

Given the incidents of lawfare that Trump has had to endure, the hyperbole spouted by the mainstream media and the political Left, it’s no wonder that Trump would want to take revenge against those who have relentlessly criticized and attacked him.

Jonathan Turley, law professor at Georgetown University, has commented several times on the pathetic and weak lawfare attacks that have been launched against Trump from various attorneys and district attorneys.

He made this comment a few months ago about Alvin Bragg, Manhattan District Attorney, who twisted the facts of a Trump misdemeanor to transform them into a felony:

Like his predecessor, Bragg previously scoffed at the case. However, two prosecutors, Carey R. Dunne and Mark F. Pomerantz, then resigned and started a public pressure campaign to get New Yorkers to demand prosecution.

Pomerantz shocked many of us by publishing a book on the case against Trump —  who was still under investigation and not charged, let alone convicted, of any crime. He did so despite objections from his former colleague that such a book was grossly improper.

Nevertheless, it worked. Bragg brought a Rube Goldberg case that is so convoluted and counterintuitive that even liberal legal analysts criticized it.

It’s no wonder that Trump is relishing the discomfort and fear that he is eliciting in his opponents. They have spent years trying to ruin his reputation, insulting him, discrediting him and trying to humiliate him.

Meanwhile, in reflecting on the 2016 election, Trump said the following about Hillary Clinton:

“I could have gone after Hillary. I could have gotten Hillary Clinton very easily. And when they say lock her up, whenever they said ‘lock her,’ you know, they’d start, 30,000 people, ‘lock her up, lock her up.’ What did I do? I always say take it easy, just relax. We’re winning. Take it easy. Take it easy.”

He added: “I could have had her put in jail. And I decided I didn’t want to do that. I thought it would look terrible. You had the wife of the president of the United States going to jail. I thought it would be very bad if we did that. And I made sure that didn’t happen, OK? I thought it would be bad.”

But now he has reached the point where striking fear in the hearts of his enemies seems righteous.

Yet the changes he will make will be in the way government operates, not mere petty payback to individual miscreants.

That will be devastating to the Leftist cause.

It will also serve as his retribution.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 12:45

News Site Known For Being Fiercely Critical Of US Foreign Policy Hacked, Removed From Web

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News Site Known For Being Fiercely Critical Of US Foreign Policy Hacked, Removed From Web

The fiercely independent investigative news source Consortium News has been taken offline following what its editor has said is a major hack following a series of data breaches.

“Our web host has confirmed seven recent data breaches and now it appears that our site has been totally replaced. We have been hacked,” the website announced on X, saying that it is working to restore the site. WikiLeaks also confirmed that the website has been completely removed, and current and archived historic articles are no longer accessible at this time.

Consortium News articles are frequently featured also on ZeroHedge. The long-running independent news source focuses on US national security affairs as well as foreign policy and geopolitics. 

The website has remained a constant critic of Washington expansionism and military intervention abroad, and is a critic of Israeli military action. It also very closely followed and reported on the London extradition court proceedings of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

Throughout Monday morning users visiting consortiumnews.com would get a return of the following page:

And all past article links are also inaccessible at this point…

The late Robert Parry, who passed in 2018 at the age of 68, founded Consortium News. The Virginia-based Parry was famous for breaking several major stories related to the Iran–Contra affair for the The Associated Press (AP) and Newsweek.

He also revealed a number of previously unknown details related to the CIA training the Nicaraguan contras in the 1980s, including revealing the CIA’s “Psychological Operations in Guerrilla Warfare” manual, as well as US intelligence involvement in cocaine trafficking related to covert operations in Central America.

The website also features much of this vital past work of Parry’s, as well as interviews, related to these national security state scandals.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 12:25

The Thin Blue Line: University Professors Are Approaching Near Unanimity As A Democratic Lock

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The Thin Blue Line: University Professors Are Approaching Near Unanimity As A Democratic Lock

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the single most divisive election in our history.

The public is split right down the middle with almost every group splintering between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

There is, however, one group that seems almost unanimous: professors.

A new survey of more than 1,000 professors shows that seventy-eight percent will vote for Harris and only eight percent will vote for Trump. Other than a poll of the Democratic National Committee, there are few groups that are more reliably Democratic or liberal.

For anyone in higher education, the result is hardly surprising. The poll tracks what we already know about the gradual purging of departments around the country of conservative, libertarian, and dissenting professors.

Indeed, the lack of political and intellectual diversity may be turning some donors and even applicants from higher education. With failing revenue and applications, universities are starting to re-embrace commitments to neutrality on political issues.

Some, however, are doubling down on advocacy and orthodoxy.

In an op-ed this week, Wesleyan University President Michael Roth called on universities to reject “institutional neutrality” and officially support Kamala Harris. Calling neutrality “a retreat,” Roth compared Trump’s election to the rise of the Nazis and insisted that schools should “give up the popular pastime of criticizing the woke and call out instead the overt racism.”

He added, without a hint of self-awareness or irony, that “we should not be silenced because of fears of appearing partisan.”

In my book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I discuss the intolerance in higher education and surveys showing that many departments no longer have a single Republican as faculties replicate their own views and values.

So not only are professors voting en mass for Harris, Roth would have the schools themselves work openly for her election.

That ideological echo chamber is hardly an enticement for many who are facing rising high tuition costs with relatively little hope of being taught by faculty with opposing views.

There are obviously many reasons why faculty may reject Trump specifically, but this poll also tracks more generally the self-identification and contributions of faculty.

A Georgetown study recently found that only nine percent of law school professors identify as conservative at the top 50 law schools — almost identical to the percentage of Trump voters found in the new poll.

Notably, Roth acknowledged that the current lack of intellectual diversity in higher education had become so extreme that there might be a need for “an affirmative action program for conservatives.”

However, he and others continue to saw feverishly on the branch upon which we all sit in higher education in calling for even greater political advocacy.

There is little evidence that faculty members have any interest in changing this culture or creating greater diversity at schools.  In places like North Carolina State University a study found that Democrats outnumbered Republicans 20 to 1.

Recently, I had a debate at Harvard Law School with Professor Randall Kennedy on whether Harvard protects free speech and intellectual diversity.

This year, Harvard found itself in a familiar spot on the annual ranking of Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE): dead last among 251 universities and colleges.

Harvard has long dismissed calls for greater free speech protections or intellectual diversity. It shows.

The Harvard Crimson has documented how the school’s departments have  virtually eliminated Republicans. In one study of multiple departments last year, they found that more than 75 percent of the faculty self-identified as “liberal” or “very liberal.”

Only  5 percent identified as “conservative,” and only 0.4% as “very conservative.”

Consider that, according to Gallup, the U.S. population is roughly equally divided among conservatives (36%), moderates (35%), and liberals (26%).

So Harvard has three times the number of liberals as the nation at large and less than three percent identify as “conservative’ rather than 35% nationally.

Among law school faculty who have donated more than $200 to a political party, a breathtaking 91 percent of the Harvard faculty gave to democrats.

The student body shows the same bias of selection. Harvard Crimson previously found that only 7 percent of incoming students identified as conservative. For the vast majority of liberal faculty and students, Harvard amplifies rather than stifles their viewpoints.

This does not happen randomly. Indeed, if a business reduced the number of women or minorities to less than 5 percent, a court would likely find de facto discrimination.

Yet, Kennedy rejected the notion that the elite school should strive to “look more like America.”

It is not just that schools like Harvard “do not look like America,” it does not even look like liberal Massachusetts, which is almost 30 percent Republican.

Our students are being educated by faculty taken from the same liberal elite of just 26 percent of our nation.

Some sites like Above the Law have supported the exclusion of conservative faculty.  Senior Editor Joe Patrice defended “predominantly liberal faculties” by arguing that hiring a conservative law professor is akin to allowing a believer in geocentrism to teach at a university.

The result is that law students at schools like Harvard have relatively few faculty to reflect the views of half of the judiciary and the majority of the Supreme Court.

Likewise, having a faculty that ranges from the left to the far left further marginalizes the small number of conservative students.

The impact of this academic echo chamber is evident in surveys showing that 28 percent of Harvard students engaged in self-censorship — a figure doubling since just 2021.

Given my respect for Professor Kennedy, I was surprised that he dismissed the sharp rise in students saying that they did not feel comfortable speaking in classes. Referring to them as “conservative snowflakes,” he insisted that they simply had to have the courage of their convictions.

This ignores that they depend upon professors for recommendations and their challenging the orthodoxy at the school can threaten their standing.

Moreover, Kennedy defended cancel campaigns or “disinvitations” of speakers as a form of free speech. As students see faculty supporting the cancelling of conservative or libertarian or dissenting speakers, it is hardly an invitation to speak freely yourself in class.

There was a hopeful aspect, however, to the debate. Before the debate the large audience voted heavily in favor of Harvard’s position. However, after the debate, they overwhelming voted against Harvard’s position on free speech.

It is an example of how exposure to opposing views can change the bias or assumptions in higher education.

There is little likelihood that Harvard or higher education will change. It is like the old joke about how many psychiatrists it takes to change a light bulb. The answer is just one but the bulb really has to want to change.

Academics like Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the UC Berkeley law school, have denounced conservative justices as mere “partisan hacks.” Other faculty have joined in claims that Trump and his supporters are “fascists” out to destroy democracy. It is only likely to get worse after the election.

The political polling of professors reflects the near complete cleansing of colleges of conservative faculty. The question is whether donors or applicants will continue to support an echo chamber that has become ideologically deafening.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 12:10

Ugly 2Y Auction Sends Yields To Session High As Trump Odds Soar

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Ugly 2Y Auction Sends Yields To Session High As Trump Odds Soar

Not only is it an extremely busy week, but ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly refunding (when we are expected to learn about a surge in new Bill issuance which will drain the reverse repo in weeks), we also have a barrage of coupon issuance starting with two offerings today, a 2Y and a 5Y auction, the first of which just priced when $69BN in two year paper sold at a high yield of 4.130%, up sharply from 3.520% last month (thank the resurgent Trumpflation trade for the sharply higher yields as the market prices in much more debt issuance under president Trump 2.0), and the highest since July. The auction also tailed the 4.122% When Issued by 0.8bps, the first tailing 2Y auction since May.

The bid to cover was 2.504, down from 2.588 last month and the lowest since May.

The internals were algo ugly with Indirects awarded just 58.2%, the lowest since May, and with Directs taking down a surprisingly high 23.8%, the most since May, Dealers were left with 17.9%, the biggest such award since December 2023.

Whether it was because of the poor 2Y auction or just because the market is starting to really price in a Trump presidency…

… yields spiked to session highs, with 10s now just shy of 4.30%, a level which even stocks will have no choice but to notice very soon.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 12:04

McDonald’s Shares Surge After Quarter Pounder Returns To Menu Amid E. Coli Outbreak

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McDonald’s Shares Surge After Quarter Pounder Returns To Menu Amid E. Coli Outbreak

McDonald’s shares rose in New York on Monday morning after the fast-food chain announced Sunday that Quarter Pounders are back on the menu, following a brief removal due to a widespread E. coli outbreak. 

“McDonald’s was informed that the Colorado Department of Agriculture has completed their testing, the results of which confirm that there was no detection of E. coli in the samples taken of Quarter Pounder beef patties from restaurants in this area. We’ve been informed there is no further testing planned for beef patties,” MCD wrote in a press release. 

Last week, out of an abundance of caution, MCD nuked Quarter-Pound beef patties across the western parts of the country due to the E. coli outbreak, which sickened 75 people in 13 states, including 22 hospitalizations and one death. 

MCD said the 900 restaurants that received slivered onions from Taylor Farms’ Colorado Springs facility will resume sales of Quarter Pounders without slivered onions. This includes restaurants in Colorado, Kansas, and Wyoming, as well as portions of Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Utah.

Bloomberg published a visual showing the outbreak. 

Source: Bloomberg 

Negative press around MCD sent foot traffic to the chain sliding nearly 5% last Wednesday from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg, citing data from Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.

In markets, MCD closed down 7.5% last week, the worst five-day stretch since March 2020.

Shares rebounded early Monday, up more than 2%. 

“The FDA is continuing its investigation into Taylor Farms’ Colorado Springs facility,” MCD said. 

Perhaps it’s time for lawmakers on Capitol Hill to investigate the vulnerabilities of America’s food supply chain, given the invasion of millions of unvetted migrants by Biden-Harris over the past 3.5 years – many of these migrants were dumped into the factory farms and food processing plants. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/28/2024 – 11:45