Five weeks after Brazil’s full Supreme Court upheld a nationwide ban on social media platform X, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes on Tuesday authorized the restoration of service.
The move comes after X ultimately complied with all of de Moraes’ demands – including blocking certain accounts from the platform, paying outstanding fines, and naming a new legal representative, APreports.
Elon Musk’s X was blocked on Aug. 30 after refusing to block certain accounts implicated in investigations of alleged spreading of distorted news and what court officials said is hate speech.
An estimated 20-40 million people use X in Brazil, a country of 213 million people.
Last month Musk fired off multiple X posts that criticized de Moraes, with one saying that “he should be impeached for violating his oath of office” and that his “actions are against the will of the Brazilian people he is supposed to represent.”
The unbanning came hours after Brazil’s top prosecutor’s office issued a legal opinion that it no longer sees any reason to prevent X from being reinstated.
A mother’s tears of worry and frustration over her 17-year-old daughter’s secret social gender transition at school tell the story of what many parents are facing in California schools.
“I cry every day, not only for my daughter but for the parents that are now contacting me about their kids,” one Los Angeles County mom told The Epoch Times on the condition of anonymity to protect her daughter’s identity.
Under the pseudonym, Lena, she said her daughter, Hannah—also a pseudonym—suffered from gender dysphoria and was secretly socially transitioned at school.
Lena is one of several parents representing nine families that joined a lawsuit filed by the City of Huntington Beach against state officials over a new law that bans parental notification policies, effectively prohibiting school staff from revealing social gender transitions of students to their parents without the child’s consent.
California is the only state to enact such a law.
Unbeknown to her parents, Hannah began secretly identifying as “trans” in 2020, when she was 13, after spending a lot of time on social media platforms.
She was homeschooled until the ninth grade when she attended public high school and is now in her senior year.
In 2021, as Lena was cleaning her daughter’s bedroom, she was shocked to find a sketchbook that contained Hannah’s drawings depicting self-mutilation, suicide ideation, and the bloody aftermath of gender transition surgeries.
“I’m going through her books, and I see very disturbing pictures of her bloody body cut up, saying, ‘I need to come out. I need to pick a name, and I need to tell my parents I’m trans. I want to be on testosterone. I want top surgery,’” Lena said.
She knew something was seriously wrong, and wanted to talk with Hannah but said it took a few weeks to find the right words and broach the sensitive subject.
“I told her what I found and that we love her, and we don’t care what sexual orientation she is as she grows into herself, but she’s not trans,” Lena said.
Lena told her daughter she is female down to her DNA chromosomes and that she and her husband will only call her by her birth name, she said.
After the talk, Hannah agreed to not use the male name—only her birth name—at school, but at the end of the school year when students’ work was showcased online for parents to see, Lena noticed a male name on a biology assignment.
At the start of the academic year, school staff had asked Hannah for her preferred name and pronouns and began socially transitioning her to a male name and identity, Lena said.
According to the complaint, the principal allegedly pulled Hannah aside for a meeting to tell her that school staff were not allowed to tell her parents about the social transition.
As she entered tenth grade in 2022, teachers and administrators continued referring to Hannah by a male name, and Lena was repeatedly denied meetings with the school principal to discuss the situation, so Lena began speaking out at school board meetings. By the end of the school year, the school district agreed to inform Lena if her daughter ever resumed using a male name.
The next year, Hannah again used a masculine name, prompting the principal to arrange a meeting with Lena. Then, after repeated communications from Lena’s attorney and a written statement signed by Hannah agreeing to use her legal name and female pronouns, the school agreed to stop calling Hannah by a male name and pronouns, Lena said.
But Lena said she fears that once California’s Assembly Bill 1955 goes into effect in January, “it will undermine her hard-won contractual rights, her parental rights, and her ability to protect her daughter,” according to the complaint.
“If I had known that they socially transition kids at school behind parents back, I would have never put her in public school,” Lena said. “I will never give up on her or any child. … She is my child—not the school’s, the state’s, or this country’s.”
Hannah no longer identifies as “trans,” Lena said.
Public Pushback
Assembly Bill (AB) 1955, also known as the Support Academic Futures and Educators for Today’s Youth (SAFETY) Act, which is set to take effect Jan. 1, 2025, bans “parental notification policies,” which have been enacted by more than a dozen California school districts.
Controversy over AB 1955 made national headlines when Elon Musk, whose son identifies as a transgender woman, called the new law “the final straw” when Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the bill into law in mid-July.
Musk vowed to move the headquarters of his companies SpaceX and social media platform X out of state to Texas.
In the Huntington Beach and parents’ case against Newsom, Attorney General Rob Bonta, and State Superintendent of Public Schools Tony Thurmond, Lena is referred to as “1A” and Hannah is called “1C.”
Mayor Gracey Van Der Mark told The Epoch Times the city—which declared itself a “Parents’ Right to Know” city in September—decided to sue the state to assist parents who want to overturn the state law.
“We have no jurisdiction over schools, but we represent everyone in the City of Huntington Beach, including the parents,” Van Der Mark said. “It’s about our parental rights and the state chipping away at [them] and trying to raise our children for us.”
Van Der Mark, elected to the city council in 2022, said defending parental rights is what led her into politics. She said parents have told her their children were exposed to material in schools that forced them to have discussions about sex and gender ideology before they were ready.
Schools are now having these conversations with children at younger and younger ages, she said.
“Whether it’s gender or whether it’s depression, anxiety, it is our right as parents to handle these issues, and that’s been taken from us,” Van Der Mark said.
The state doesn’t have to like the way parents raise their children, but it’s bound by law to respect parental authority, she said.
“To us, it’s about … protecting our children before it’s too late—before they go out and mutilate their bodies,” she said.
Burdening teachers who don’t have counseling or psychiatric credentials with the “huge responsibility” of dealing with issues as serious as gender dysphoria also isn’t fair and puts them in a “bad situation,” Van Der Mark said.
Proponents of AB 1955 said that notifying parents without a child’s consent is a “forced outing,” and puts children who identify as transgender at risk of abuse and suicide.
Van Der Mark questioned the argument.
“Who exactly do you think you’re outing them to?” she asked.
If a boy wants to identify as a girl, changes his name and wears a dress to school, and other children tell their parents who then tell the neighbors, the only ones kept in the dark are the boy’s parents, she said.
“You’re not really outing them to anyone, because everyone is going to know except the parents,” she said.
The legal complaint states that according to the American Psychiatric Association’s (APA) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, gender dysphoria is a mental health disorder, and as such, parents should be notified.
The new state law sets no age limit on banning parental notification, so “schools cannot notify parents even if preschoolers socially transition,” the complaint states.
The law also prevents schools from disciplining staff who initiate or facilitate social gender transitioning, “which courts have recognized is a type of medical intervention or treatment,” the lawsuit argues.
“A child with gender dysphoria often has other mental health issues. To help their child, parents need to know what is going on,” the complaint states.
“Imagine the outrage if parents were kept in the dark about a child’s epileptic seizures at school and the treatment being provided that child by school employees for that condition.”
State Response
Newsom, Bonta, and Thurmond did not respond to specific requests for comment about the Huntington Beach lawsuit and other related court cases.
“While we are unable to comment on ongoing litigation, Attorney General Bonta is committed to providing his unwavering support to ensure every student has the right to learn and thrive in a school environment that promotes safety, privacy, and inclusivity,” the attorney general’s office stated in an email to the Epoch Times.
Bonta’s office highlighted a January legal alert issued by his office notifying education officials and institutions that “forced outing policies” violate the California Constitution and state laws prohibiting discrimination and safeguarding students’ right to privacy.
“The SAFETY Act,” Bonta said in an emailed statement in July, “reaffirms that forced outing policies and any form of retaliation against teachers, parents, and allies who protect students against such constitutional and statutory harms are a clear violation of state law.”
The attorney general commended the LGBTQ Caucus for prioritizing the bill “to ensure no student is ever forcibly outed against their will, especially when such disclosure could result in serious harm.”
In July, Thurmond also celebrated the signing of AB 1955.
“I am proud to work alongside our legislators who have courageously championed the privacy rights of our most vulnerable students, and whose partnership has helped ensure that this bill made it to the Governor’s desk for signing,” he said in a statement.
Goldman Finds Inconvenient Truth About Bidenomics Just Weeks Before Presidential Election
US Vice President Kamala Harris has crisscrossed the nation, giving speeches at campaign rallies in key swing states and adjusting her accent to match each town and region.
Hannity put together a collection of clips with the chyron reading “Harris’ History of Bizarre Accents” pic.twitter.com/8oUxNFQU9H
She recently proclaimed herself a “capitalist” in Pennsylvania while pushing her vision for an “opportunity economy.” However, Harris has also floated communist-style price controls to solve elevated inflation that has financially crushed low-mid-tier households sparked by her and President Biden pushing disastrous ‘Bidenomics‘ policies over the past 3.5 years.
R group Restoration PAC is up on TV in battleground states and nationally with this spot targeted at Black voters —
On Monday night, CBS “60 Minutes” aired an interview with Harris that drilled into her economic plan to strengthen the economy. The shocking part was that she couldn’t even answer how her plan would be paid for… The entire interview, along with her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was not optically pleasing for Democrats with the presidential election just weeks away. Watch the interview here.
Kamala Harris gets obliterated by 60 Minutes.
60: How will you pay for your handouts?
Kamala: “My economic plan would strengthen America’s economy, his would weaken it.”
60: “But pardon me Madam Vice President, the question was, how are you going to pay for it?” pic.twitter.com/7Tku8O3QTB
Harris’ effort to distance herself from the failures of Bidenomics is nothing short of astonishing.
As Americans are plagued with backfiring Bidenomics that has sparked elevated inflation and high interest rates, she has zigzagged across the country to convince the public that doubling down on Democrats will lead them to the promised land.
An inconvenient truth for Harris and Democrats is a new consumer survey from Goldman, which reveals in a note to clients titled “Americas Retail: Supermarkets 3Q Consumer Survey Reveals Incremental Focus on Value,” that value-seeking behaviors dominate consumers.
The survey included a series of questions for 2,000 consumers of various ages, incomes, education, and employment backgrounds. Most questions were tailored to preference metrics relevant to shopping at supermarkets or big-box retailers.
One of the first key takeaways of the survey is that failed Bidenomics pushed consumers into value-seeking mode.
Consumers were asked, ” What is the main reason for switching where you shop for groceries?” Well, they answered, “Prices.” About 52% of the respondents said price was the main reason, up from 38% in 1Q20. The four-year average stands around 43%. Notice the trend for respondents answering prices soared under Biden-Harris’ first term.
The survey reveals an inconvenient truth: Most respondents shop at Walmart. This wasn’t the case pre-GFC when the standard of living was much higher. Walmart used to be for bottom-of-the-barrel consumers, but not anymore. Rich and poor shop at the big box retailer.
Here are the top subscription-based memberships that respondents hold:
Respondents are in hibernation mode. Bad news for restaurant stocks!
Elevated inflation and high interest rates keep respondents at home for their meals.
The main takeaway here is that struggling consumers will never forget who was in the White House that stoked the worst inflation storm in a generation. Many will be voting with their empty wallets in the coming weeks.
“A society becomes totalitarian when its structure becomes flagrantly artificial: that is when its ruling class has lost its function but succeeds in clinging to power by force or fraud.”
– George Orwell
The Democrats have always relied on lies, especially when it comes to their campaigns for political office.
When Hillary Clinton was running for what she deemed her rightful place in the White House, she paid for the many, many lies that kicked off the Russia hoax and led to the endless persecution via lawfare of practically everyone in Trump’s inner circle.
None of them were guilty of any crimes.
All that Democrat malice cost taxpayers millions of dollars – the Mueller Report was the tip of their persecution iceberg. All of their accusations were lies.
When Donald Trump won, the left made sure that chaos ensued. It was a miracle that Trump accomplished all the good he did – energy independence, tax cuts for all (not just the rich as Harris claims), the Abraham Accords, low inflation, a post-COVID recovering economy and low unemployment despite the ravages of lockdowns.
When Joe Biden was faux-running for the presidency from his basement, he knew the fix was in, because it was.
The thoroughly corrupt mainstream media was delighted to use their vast reach to repeat all the lies the Democrats came up with to destroy Trump. The 2020 election was rigged and everyone knows it, even all those media tools of the left who pretend to this day that that election was legitimate. They love to claim that “every judge who looked at the evidence refused to take the numerous legal cases the Trump campaign filed.” But no judge ever looked at the volumes of evidence; they all denied the cases had standing. They were all too cowardly to actually look at the evidence available, to expose the truth.
The Democrats’ guilt on this score probably explains their obsession with trying to make any and all Republicans admit that Biden won fairly even though they know he did not.
They know the truth. Molly Ball bragged about it. They all know that Democrat lawyer Mark Elias went across the country surreptitiously changing election laws. They know that social media magnate Mark Zuckerberg funneled $400 million into those drop boxes that were stuffed by mules with thousands of fraudulent ballots.
They all know that on election night, Trump was so far ahead the counting of ballots was stopped for hours.
They needed time to come up with the ballots needed to produce a Biden win. They all know this is what happened. They all lied and continue to lie.
They lie as well about whose rhetoric has generated two assassination attempts.
Curiously, we do not yet know nearly as much as we should about the two shooters, but every sentient person on the planet knows that the left’s language over the last nine years has been purposefully murderous; still is.
So now, after nearly four years of the worst, most disastrous administration in our nation’s history by every metric, Kamala Harris is trying to become president based on the lie that she has a record worth touting. She does not. She was appointed Biden’s “border czar” about which she did exactly nothing; other than a stopover in El Paso, she only visited the actual border for the first time a week or so ago for twenty minutes, wearing her $62,000 Tiffany necklace!
The hurricane victims are simply out of luck despite the lies that White House spokesperson, Karine Jean Pierre, tells to the contrary. Most people will believe the hundreds of clips of victims telling the truth. FEMA is AWOL. It seems that this administration has been using FEMA money, $1b of it, to care for the millions of illegal migrants the Biden/Harris administration has ushered into the country. Their horrific, seemingly purposeful but surely negligent response to the devastation throughout the southeast wrought by Hurricane Helene is more proof of their utter failure to do right by Americans.
While the empty-headed newsreaders on the Sunday news shows claim that any tales of FEMA not being present and providing needed help are untrue, the folks on the ground tell of FEMA confiscating donations, of threatening to arrest citizens offering help, etc., their stories are clearly and sadly true.
These victims who have lost everything are being helped by civilian volunteers for water, food and escape, not FEMA. The Biden/Harris administration is slow-walking badly needed help to those victims who have lost everything. Kamala offered them a measly $750 while sending $157 million to Lebanon for food, water, and shelter. She is on record saying that disaster relief should be based on equity. KJP failed miserably to explain this away.
What’s wrong with this picture? Everything. Absolutely everything. We have a government that cares nothing for its own citizens but reveres illegal migrants and the citizens of other nations. We have an administration that lies constantly to make itself look good and at the same time do as much damage to the Trump campaign as possible.
In her 60 Minutes interview, for which she almost certainly had the questions ahead of time, Kamala Harris lied over and over and over again, especially about her border policy. The day Biden/Harris took office, they opened the border to all comers without vetting. Hundreds of thousands of them have been unaccompanied children, over 300,000 of whom have gone missing, sold off to traffickers and/or NGOs who place them who-knows-where.
Now Harris says the border has been “tightened.” Maybe, because they are now flying them directly from foreign countries to the cities throughout the nation. They are skipping over the border but still accommodating them in huge numbers. The same goes for the fentanyl that has poured into the country on their watch. They’ve not only let it happen, they’ve allowed it, encouraged it. Any protestations to the contrary are … lies. So, again, massive chaos reigns.
Meanwhile, rumor has it Kamala travels the country for rallies but has to bring busses full of thousands of paid “supporters” with her. She cannot bring out the crowds Trump does, so it’s not even close.
Bottom line? The Democrats rely on lies. The Harris/Walz campaign relies on lies. And what do we have? Total, disastrous, murderous chaos. Chaos is what the left thrives on – it’s the basis of the Cloward-Piven strategy. They’ve been trying to implement it for decades.
Thanks to this administration, our nation is fast becoming totalitarian, controlled by the censorship the Democrats hope to further implement.
Here is Hillary the other day:
“But we now know that … if the platforms, whether it’s Facebook or Twitter/X or Instagram or TikTok, whatever they are, if they don’t moderate and monitor the content, we (Democrats) lose total control,” but “Free speech is my right to say what you don’t want to hear.”
Orwell.
The Harris/Walz ticket must be defeated if America is to prevail.
US Mega-Cap Tech Spikes As China’s Chunder Drags Down Crude, Crypto, & Gold
Chinese stocks puked hard overnight as the return from Golden Week was greeted by less-then-wished-for stimulus chatter from China…
Source: Bloomberg
US stocks shrugged off the China chunder as the mega-caps led (with NVDA legging higher on HonHai partnership to fulfill “crazy” demand). Nasdaq was the best performer, followed by the S&P 500. Small Caps were the day’s laggard. This was the Nasdaq’s best day since the spike on the day after the September FOMC…
The Mag7 basket bounced back from yesterday afternoon’s tumble… but it remains rangebound…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed today with the short-end outperforming (2Y -2bps, 30Y +2bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y fell back below 4.00% while 10Y pushed on up to 4.05% – its highest close since July…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations remain notably more hawkish than they have been since the last FOMC meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar broke out of its post-payrolls tight range today but it was not convincing…
Source: Bloomberg
The blip higher in the dollar managed to spook gold which tanked but found support around $2600…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil also tanked as the lack of MOAR china stimmies took the shine off – thought it seems MidEast chaos doesn’t matter anymore. This was WTI’s worst day since Nov 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin slipped back to $62,000, erasing yesterday’s spike…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, despite US stocks shrugging off the China chunder today, there are numerous risk catalysts ahead including Thursday’s CPI report, Q3 earnings kicking off on Friday (big banks), and of course the election…
It’s hard to believe, but the election is now under a month away. How does the race look today? Let’s talk about the polls.
Polls are an indispensable tool in election analysis and forecasting despite many flaws. The first thing to say about polls is that they’re snapshots, not movies. They help you understand where the contest stands today, but not necessarily where the race is going.
I recently did a deep dive on the flaws in polling methodology and highlighted the small number of polling firms that actually do produce somewhat reliable results.
There’s no need to repeat all that here but some highlights include polling “registered voters” instead of “likely voters” and using sample sizes that are too small (a sample of at least 1,300 respondents is needed for reliable results; many polls use only 800 respondents).
Skewing samples to include too many Democrats and Black voters also produces results favoring Democrats.
There are ways to adjust for these flaws but they’re inexact. The simplest way is just to assume that Trump is doing one to two points better than published results once the skews and error margins are backed out.
That’s good news for Trump but it still leaves an incredibly close race.
Here are the latest results from the RealClearPolitics poll of polls average with the leader and the size of the lead expressed in percentage points:
National: Harris +2.1
Georgia: Trump +1.5
North Carolina: Trump +0.6
Pennsylvania: Tied
Arizona: Trump +1.4
Wisconsin: Harris +0.8
Michigan: Harris +0.7
Nevada: Harris +1.1
There are a few other states that are not generally regarded as battleground states but are close enough that they could offer some surprises including unexpected paths to victory on Election Day.
These include Virginia (Harris +6.4), Minnesota (Harris +4.7) and New Hampshire (Harris +7.4). If Trump were to score an upset victory in any of these three states, it could partly compensate for the loss of one or more of the battlegrounds.
The current “No Toss-Up” map from RealClearPolitics shows Trump winning the election with 281 electoral votes compared to 257 for Harris. (270 electoral votes are needed for victory.)
However, that map gives Pennsylvania to Trump. If Pennsylvania were moved to the Harris column (entirely possible), then Harris would win the Electoral College 276 to 262, quite close but still a win for Harris.
There are thousands of permutations on the outcome by switching certain states from one column to the other. The bottom line is this election is still extremely close and the outcome highly uncertain.
RealClearPolitics is a reliable source, but the poll of polls average suffers from the fact that the average is derived from about 20 separate polls conducted on irregular dates by various organizations.
This leaves two problems: The first is that if there are flaws in the underlying polls (there are) those flaws will be carried over into the average.
The second problem is that some of the underlying polls in the average are stale and therefore the average tends to lag trends by a few days to a week. That doesn’t mean the result isn’t useful; it just means the result has to be evaluated in the context of these lags.
Trump is performing better nationally and in every state in the Rasmussen poll than the RealClearPolitics average with the exception of Arizona where the results are the same. Given that Rasmussen is among the most reliable pollsters, this is good news for Trump.
Trafalgar polling is also considerably better for Trump than the RealClearPolitics average except for Arizona where the pro-Trump results are stronger in RealClear. The Trafalgar results are also closely aligned with the Rasmussen results where both sites polled the same states.
Since Trafalgar and Rasmussen are both more accurate than other pollsters, the fact that the two align lends credence to the results and is more good news for Trump. Crucially, Trafalgar is showing Trump with a clear lead in Pennsylvania.
As I show you below, Pennsylvania is the single most important state when it comes to various paths to victory in this election. But it’s more complicated than that.
I also show you the multiple paths to victory for both Harris and Trump. Who’ll likely emerge the winner? Read on.
The Race to 270
Political analysts speak of something they call the “path to victory” with victory defined as 270 electoral votes or more. There are a total of 538 electoral votes available from the 50 states and D.C. A tally of 270 electoral votes is a bare majority of the total and that’s enough to win the White House.
For each candidate, the path to victory is a list of states that you can win that add up to 270 or more electoral votes. This is where the concept of battleground states comes in. Harris is all but certain to win a list of states including California (54), New York (28) and Washington (12).
Trump is all but certain to win another list of states including Tennessee (11), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8) and Louisiana (8).
Those “sure thing” states are followed by a list of likely states. For Harris, these include Illinois (19), New Jersey (14) and Virginia (13). For Trump, these include Texas (40), Florida (30) and Missouri (10).
Once these sure-thing and likely states are added up, Harris has 215 electoral votes and Trump has 219. Both candidates fall short of 270 votes at this stage.
This brings us to the true battleground states (or “toss-ups”) of Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10) and a portion of Nebraska (1), which divides votes by congressional districts.
There are 104 electoral votes in this toss-up category. Trump needs 51 of those 104 toss-ups to win. Harris needs 55.
Trump’s path to victory is straightforward. He needs to win all of the states he won in 2020. That seems highly likely as of now although the race is close in North Carolina according to RealClearPolitics. He also needs to flip Arizona and Georgia to his column.
He lost both in 2020 but is ahead in both as of now according to RealClearPolitics, Rasmussen, Trafalgar and The New York Times. With Arizona and Georgia in hand, Trump only needs to win Pennsylvania to cross the 270-vote threshold. He could lose Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada and still win the White House if he takes Pennsylvania.
Of course, there are alternative paths. Trump could lose Pennsylvania (19) and still win the White House if he takes Virginia (13) and Nevada (6). That’s a wash. Trump could lose Pennsylvania and still win if he takes Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (13).
Or Trump could lose Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win if he takes Michigan and Nevada. You get the point. There are numerous paths to victory.
The path for Kamala Harris is more challenging but still feasible. She begins with the Northeast-Mid-Atlantic base of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, D.C. and Virginia.
Then she picks up the liberal West Coast states of Washington, Oregon, California and Nevada, with Colorado, New Mexico, Hawaii and one Nebraska district thrown in for good measure. She pushes toward 270 with the Blue Wall states of New York, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
The problem is that all of those states and D.C. combined give her only 257 electoral votes, still 13 short of the target of 270. How does Kamala close that gap? You guessed it. Pennsylvania. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes on top of the other states listed, then she is the next president.
It’s clear that Kamala’s path is much narrower than Trump’s. Trump has a few wild cards that could land in his favor including surprise victories in Virginia, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. Some combination of those could pad his lead or compensate for a loss in Pennsylvania.
Harris has no margin for error. She’s extremely unlikely to pick up any of the Trump states. She has to hold on to Virginia and Nevada. And she has to win the entire Blue Wall including Pennsylvania. Trump has a bit of wiggle room while Harris has to run the table. And that’s exactly what she’s trying to do.
Harris based her campaign on a version of Biden’s 2020 “basement strategy”: Stay hidden, don’t take questions, cater to rich donors, don’t be specific and just try to run out the clock with joy and good vibes.
But it’s not working. Voters want answers to their everyday problems of inflation, crime, illegal immigrants taking jobs and new wars breaking out. Harris doesn’t have any. This could be her undoing.
Trump continues to focus on the key issues (inflation, immigration, crime, jobs) now aided by J.D. Vance’s successful debut to a national audience in the VP debate. Voters are far more interested in those issues than in name-calling and other distractions.
Trump has a clear path to victory and is gaining in the polls. He simply needs to maintain message discipline, ignore sideshows and keep up with his rally schedule and paid advertising to win this election.
Even if Trump can win the election with 270 or more Electoral College votes, likely as of now, the fight will not be over. The Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves.
If Democrats retake the House of Representatives, then on Jan. 6, 2025, the New Democrat-controlled House could pass a resolution that Trump is an “insurrectionist” and disqualify his electoral votes under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
Kamala would not have 270 electoral votes needed to win. This would throw the election of the president to the House of Representatives voting as state delegations, not as individuals. Under the XII Amendment (1804), only Kamala Harris could receive votes for president assuming Trump was disqualified and no other candidate won any electors at all.
J.D. Vance would suffer no insurrectionist disqualification. So the result could be Kamala Harris as president and J.D. Vance as vice president (similar to Jefferson and Burr in 1800).
Another possibility is that the Republican-controlled state delegations in the House could boycott the presidential vote in which case a quorum would be lacking. In that case, the vice president (J.D. Vance) “shall act as president” under the XII Amendment. This is not a far-fetched scenario. Democrats led by Jamie Raskin have already set the wheels in motion.
Trump has 28 days to flip the narrative on Kamala Harris and win the election. If he does, the Democrats have a doomsday plan they will unveil on Jan. 6, 2025, to disqualify Trump.
The bottom line is that even when this election is over it won’t be over.
Israel Mulling Attacks On Iran Energy Sites Despite Biden Objections, Oil Spikes
A number of days have passed with no Israeli retaliation against Iran for its Oct. 1st major attack which saw nearly 200 ballistic missiles pummel the Tel Aviv area, including hits on important Israeli air bases. A lot of back-and-forth and contradictory reports later, and with the US side reportedly trying to ‘talk Netanyahu down’, Israel is saying that strikes on Iran’s energy facilities are still definitely on the table:
US OFFICIALS TO NBC – ISRAEL IS CONSIDERING STRIKING ENERGY FACILITIES IN IRAN
The news wire sent crude prices spiking, as has been the pattern over the last week of threats and counterthreats flying between Tehran and Tel Aviv…
The New York Times reported Monday based on Israeli officials that a significant counter attack is still coming, and it is expected to target Iranian military sites. The fresh report also lists as likely targets Iranian intelligence sites and officials’ offices or headquarters. President Biden has warned against striking Iran’s nuclear sites, and even days ago backed off the idea of hitting energy and oil facilities. Thus a ‘debate’ has still been raging internally as both sides are said to be coordinating the response.
“At least initially, Israel seems unlikely to go after the country’s nuclear crown jewels,” NY Times writes. “After considerable debate, those targets seem to have been reserved for later, if the Iranians escalate with counterstrikes of their own.”
But hawks and hardliners in the Israeli government, who may or may not have PM Netanyahu’s ear, are saying the ‘opportunity’ must be seized:
“Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years, to change the face of the Middle East,” Naftali Bennett, a hard-line nationalist and former prime minister who once described himself as to the right of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, recently wrote on social media. “We must act *now* to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime.”
He added: “We have the justification. We have the tools. Now that Hezbollah and Hamas are paralyzed, Iran stands exposed.”
But this sounds a lot like the rhetoric leading up to the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, but instead of setting in motion the “birth pangs of a new Middle East”— the Iraq war resulted in an estimated million deaths and casualties, destabilization going on two plus decades, the rise of ISIS, and the ascendancy of a pro-Tehran government in Baghdad.
Interestingly, Washington is now trying to ‘manage’ Israel’s impending Iran strike, with Biden urging a “proportionate” response, or one that avoids major regional war.
Strangely, the US administration is apparently offering Israel “compensation” for its military to hit only US-approved targets. According to a Sunday Jerusalem Post report, “An American official said, ‘If you don’t hit targets A, B, C, we will provide you with diplomatic protection and an arms package’.”
“Israeli officials responded saying, ‘We consider the United States and listen to them. But we will do anything and everything we can to protect the citizens and the security of the State of Israel’,” the report continued.
Notable answer not included in the 60 minutes broadcast last night (was in Overtime)
Asked which foreign country she considers to be the US’s “greatest adversary,” Harris says:
“I think there’s an obvious one in mind which is Iran. Iran has American blood on their hands.” pic.twitter.com/yLefXJM1Cr
Concerning the desire of some Israeli officials to strike Iran’s nuclear sites hard, there remains a significant practical problem: US ‘bunker-buster bombs’ are needed to do damage to underground facilities. Much of Iran’s missile silos are also protected underground. Washington would have to sign off in this case.
Currently, US CENTCOM Chief General Michael Kurilla is in Israel leading the coordinated discussion from the US side. To be expected in the post-9/11 world of ‘forever wars’ in the Middle East, Congress seems completely absent from the conversation as US taxpayer dollars are literally being used to essentially bribe Israel.
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump while on the campaign trail recently argued that Israel should “hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.” This is sure to frustrate and anger the sizeable part of his base which has been sick and tired of the unauthorized ‘forever wars’ – especially ones waged on behalf of foreign powers which have little or nothing to do with defense of the US homeland.
“Time Is Running Out” To Evacuate As Hurricane Milton Barrels Towards Florida’s Gulf Coast
Update (1315ET):
Milton is about 500 miles southwest of Tampa and is expected to make landfall late Wednesday as a Category 3 storm on Florida’s Gulf Coast. The storm was downgraded from a Cat. 5 overnight to a Cat. 4 on Tuesday morning.
“If the storm stays on the current track, it will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years,” the National Weather Service in Tampa warned, adding, “Milton continues to pose a potentially catastrophic threat to parts of the west Florida coast.”
Milton has strengthened with max sustained winds of 150 mph. It is considered a strong Category 4 hurricane. It will make landfall as a major hurricane late Wednesday near Tampa. It is located over 500 miles southwest of Tampa. #wfaaweather
Milton is forecasted to produce higher storm surges across the Tampa area than Hurricane Helene just weeks ago.
10/8 7am CDT: A large area of destructive storm surge from #Milton will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is extremely life-threatening & residents should follow advice given by local officials including evacuation orders. pic.twitter.com/OCcqaLnLDg
President Biden told reporters that Milton could be “the worst storm to hit Florida in over a century.”
President Biden: “I’m cancelling my trip to Germany and Africa…we’re going to stay focused on what’s ahead of us right now…Hurricane Milton could be one of the worst storms in 100 years…” pic.twitter.com/csR5TVcAau
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told residents today that “time is running out” to leave the area as the biggest evacuation effort in the state since 2017 has been underway for days.
“Basically, the entire peninsula portion of Florida is under some type of either a watch or a warning,” DeSantis told reporters in his morning storm briefing,” adding, “You have time today. Time is running out. But you do have time today to heed any evacuation orders and do what you need to do to protect yourself and our families.”
Whoa.
Hurricane Milton will become a category 5 before the end of the day.
This is going to be disastrous for the west coast of Florida even if the intensity drops just before landfall.
Hurricanes have rarely directly impacted Tampa Bay from the west, but it did happen in 1848. pic.twitter.com/QyqESF2yEi
Milton weakened overnight to a Category 4 hurricane. The storm is an “extremely dangerous” threat as it churns near the Yucatan Peninsula, barreling toward Florida’s Gulf Coast this AM, with landfall impacts expected on Wednseday night or early Thursday morning.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s 0500 ET update, Milton was downgraded from a Cat. 5 to Cat. 4, with maximum winds up to 155 mph while traversing the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico at 12 mph with an east-northeast heading.
The latest storm data shows Milton is completing an eyewall replacement cycle. This means the strongest winds extend further out from the center as the eye grows in size.
Hurricane Milton has weakened by 30 mb over the last 5 hours due to eye wall replacement. Wow. pic.twitter.com/mQKqvfIwqM
NHC’s peak storm surge forecast shows Milton could generate a wall of water as high as 15 feet across Tampa Bay, Sarasota, and Venice.
Computer models are shifting south with landfall impacts from Sarasota to Port Charlotte instead of the initial forecasts for Tampa.
#Milton – southward trends in the overnight ECMWF guidance…
The ensemble system has exhibited a southerly trend overnight, bringing the most likely track (black line) closer to Sarasota – this would expose Sarasota and Port Charlotte to the worst of the storm surge.
China Is Successfully Driving A Wedge Between European Politicians
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
China’s equity indices either did very well, or very poorly, depending on your reference. The country returned to work after a weeklong national holiday with a gain of 4.4% for the Shenzhen CSI 300 index. That’s less than half of the opening gains though – the CSI 300 opened the day with a 10.8% increase on the screens. Some investors may have used the first opportunity they had in a week’s time to sell some of their holdings and lock in a profit.
That also explains some of the sharp divergence between the green digits on China’s mainland exchange and the 7.8% drop in the Hang Seng index today. The Hong Kong exchange remained open last week, and the HSI had gradually continued to rise until today’s open. The drop in the HSI index arguably better reflects the latest sentiment. The government had scheduled another press conference for today, leading to expectations of further stimulus measures. However, the press briefing concluded with no additional measures being announced.
With a fairly thin data calendar this week, there is little distraction for German industry to hide behind. Industrial output wasn’t as bad as expected: production was down ‘only’ 2.7% y/y. That’s an improvement from the previous month (-5.3%) and it beat market expectations. However, this probably does not mark an improving trend for the manufacturing sector. Production in the automobile industry, which was the main reason for the output jump, fluctuates considerably from month to month.
Moreover, yesterday’s data also flag a sharp decline in new orders. Order books shrank 3.9% y/y, despite an increase in demand from non-Eurozone countries. Particularly demand in Germany itself is abysmal, indicating that German companies are still very reluctant to invest in capacity or more efficient production.
Given the importance of export orders for German growth, and particularly the export of cars to China, it is not surprising that Germany was amongst the countries that voted against Brussels’ plans to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Reuters headlined that this highlights “Berlin’s waning influence” in Europe.
Indeed, one way to interpret the split decision to impose additional tariffs is that China is successfully exploiting the different national interests to drive a wedge between the European politicians. But one would hope that there has been some backroom coordination in Europe, in order to limit the fallout of the EV tariffs. What if European politicians secretly agreed to vote in such a way that a) the tariffs would be passed; and b) those countries with a big reliance on exports to China can vote against, so that any retaliation will focus on less-vulnerable sectors?
Whether it was discord or coordination, the vote will probably focus Beijing’s attention on the agriculture sector, not cars. Germany and Slovakia –who both have a substantial car industry– voted against. Meanwhile, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and Denmark are amongst those countries that voted in favor of the tariffs. To retaliate against these countries specifically, China will have to focus on agricultural exports such as pork, dairy and (French) wines. Speaking of which, China has just announced provisional tariffs on French brandy.
Lululemon Founder’s $60 Million Mansion Defaced After Putting Up Signs Supporting Conservative Politics
The founder of Lululemon had his house defaced after putting up a political sign taking a shot at David Eby, premier of the province he lives in, British Columbia.
Eby is in the midst of a tight race with what Bloomberg is calling a “resurgent Conservative Party”, with the news outlet detailing how Chip Wilson’s $60 million becahfront mansion became covered in graffiti after posting the political sign.
The sign read: “Eby will tell you the Conservatives are ‘Far Right’ but neglects saying that the NDP is ‘Communist.’”
The Bloomberg article reports that on the same day the graffiti went up, saying “selfish billionaire lives here”, it was washed off and another political sign was put in its place. The second sign read: “Voters seem to forget when Eby ‘gives’ us money, it is the Voters’ money he has already taken.”
“I don’t disagree with him when he calls David Eby a communist,” responded BC Conservative Leader John Rustad.
Eby, the local legislator for Wilson’s neighborhood, stated last week that the government raised taxes on Wilson and the wealthiest 2% of British Columbians to fund health care and social services, according to Bloomberg.
He remarked: “I know when you are so rich that the Red Hot Chili Peppers play your birthday party, it’s possible to lose perspective.”
Wilson’s representative didn’t comment, but Wilson has previously cited Ayn Rand’s *Atlas Shrugged* as the second-most influential book in his life. His property is valued at C$81.8 million ($60.1 million), making it the most expensive home in BC, according to provincial tax data, Bloomberg writes.
