Zelensky Could Be Overthrown If He Fails To Hold Elections: Ukraine Lawmaker
An opposition lawmaker in Ukrainian parliament is warning that President Vladimir Zelensky could eventually face a coup if he persists in banning national elections. The Verkhovna Rada lawmaker, Alexander Dubinsky, wrote on Telegram that “a coup is possible.”
He warned this will be the case “if Zelensky, who has done everything contrary to the interests of Ukraine, remains in power bypassing the elections. Surely no one will tolerate this.”
But already, the government had canceled elections which were supposed to be held last spring, citing martial law and the necessity of no disruption in government due to the Russian invasion. This is a situation which looks to persist longer, angering many Ukrainians who are dissatisfied with Zelensky’s handling of the war.
President Putin had called Zelensky ‘illegitimate’ as a result, but NATO allies including the United States had accepted the cancelation of elections. Putin had said that his term “expired together with its legitimacy, which cannot be restored by any tricks.”
Dubinsky, the opposition lawmaker now highlighting the issue, has actually been under investigation for treason stemming from a years-long alleged criminal conspiracy involving corruption.
Kiev has long maintained that indefinitely postponing elections was in accord with the nation’s constitution:
Ukrainian legal experts consulted by DW said they expected Zelenskyy would remain in power until a new president is elected. “The Ukrainian constitution states this clearly,” said Andriy Mahera, of the Center of Policy and Legal Reform in Kyiv. “The president does not automatically lose his powers five years after inauguration. These powers are only removed when the newly elected president takes office, i.e., after elections.”
Presidential and parliamentary elections are currently out of the question. Ukraine’s constitution places a temporary restriction on the former, whereas martial law bans both — in part , officials have said, to protect voters from harm.
So long as Zelensky has the support of the West, it’s expected he will continue to rule without problems.
Lawmaker Alexander Dubinsky is a deeply controversial figure in Ukraine…
One potential coup scenario, however, might involve far-right elements connected to Ukraine’s military – such as Azov Brigade – stirring strong dissent in the scenario of Zelensky being willing to go quickly to the negotiating table with Moscow. While much of the Ukrainian populace is surely tired of the war, and might be willing to let go of some pro-Russian far eastern territories for the sake of peace, groups like Azov and Right Sector would be out for blood.
Two infernos, a vandalized storefront, a Metro bus slamming into three cars, drones spitting fireworks at drifting, souped-up muscle cars. Relatively, it was a tame Labor Day Weekend in Los Angeles County, where illegal street takeovers continue to terrorize neighborhoods that have been co-opted as tourist attractions for drivers and spectators seeking internet clout.
Contemporary “takeovers”—in which drivers commandeer intersections and perform dangerous stunts for a scrum of onlookers—are a kind of successor to classic California car cultures including drag racing, cruising, lowriding, and sideshows.
But propelled by the manic, mimetic spectacle of social media, they have become a uniquely dangerous part of the landscape.
Vehicle thefts, shootings, flash mob robberies, and pedestrian fatalities associated with illegal racing and takeovers have all increased from pre-pandemic levels, according to officials.
Law enforcement agencies say they are cracking down with a zero tolerance approach, and a multi-agency task force dedicated to addressing the issue, investing in educational programming and diversion, enhancing technology, and deploying street modifications has been used at problem intersections.
Despite all this, the problem appears increasingly unhinged.
“What we’re seeing is this increase in violent behavior—looting, cars on fire. Recently, we had two kids shot and one murdered at a takeover, at a spin,” Craig Valenzuela, commander of the Los Angeles Police Department’s (LAPD) Traffic Group, told the L.A. County Board of Supervisors at a July 30 meeting.
He was referring to a July 22 incident in which two 15-year-olds involved in a takeover were shot after an alleged robbery, including one fatally.
“That’s really what concerns us—it’s the level of violence and us trying to get in there to end those and keep our communities safe.”
At the meeting, other agencies and county staff presented a final report on illegal racing and takeovers in unincorporated county areas, nearly a year in the making.
They painted a rather bleak picture, acknowledging the scope and scale of the problem, and the fact that existing enforcement, as well as outreach efforts by authorities—seeking to influence the behavior of an anti-authority youth subculture—are not working.
“It has risen to that level where we really need to dedicate all of our resources and address this epidemic that’s wreaking havoc on our communities,” L.A. Assistant Sheriff Myron Johnson told the board.
Supervisors ultimately voted to direct staff and the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department (LASD) to report back on funding and an action plan in 60 days.
To advocates who have been lobbying for years to stave off the inevitable casualties of illegal racing and takeovers, it seems a long time coming.
“Unfortunately, I think it caught everyone by surprise,” said Lili Trujillo Puckett, founder of Street Racing Kills, referring to a surge of takeovers during the pandemic.
Puckett founded her organization after her 16-year-old daughter, Valentina, was killed in a street racing crash in 2014. She now runs diversion programs for youth offenders, as well as legislative and education campaigns.
“There were no laws in place. I started asking for bills a long time ago, but nobody saw it was a problem,” she told The Epoch Times.
Donald Galaz, founder of Project Street Legal, an organization focused on providing legal venues for street racing, says the problem has outgrown law enforcement’s ability to corral it.
“It’s just way out of control,” he said. “No task force is ever going to stop it—there are too many individuals, these kids out there, they just continue to move from place to place.”
Galaz is a longtime member of the Brotherhood of International Street Racers, a group that developed legal avenues for racing, which he credits with getting him off the streets and out of gangs in his youth. And while there is a “level of disrespect” and chaos in today’s takeovers that wasn’t part of the covert sideshows and drag racing of previous decades, then largely confined to industrial areas and parking lots, he says officials could still put a major dent in the problem by giving kids a safer alternative.
“I’ve been advocating for this for over 12 years—let’s do something. I’ve been through many city council members and mayors that promise to help,” he said. Galaz said he ran phone banks for a mayoral campaign, but the effort ended in a long line of “unkept promises” to address the issue.
“In the meantime, people are dying. The public is at risk. Businesses are getting destroyed. Streets are getting destroyed,” he said. “And then you see on the news all the time that people are getting killed, and still elected officials have done nothing.”
Uneven Impact
The destruction tends to be concentrated in certain areas, and often perpetrated by people who live elsewhere, say locals.
The city of Compton has long been an epicenter of Southern California car culture, home to motorcycle and racing clubs, and a Sunday lowrider cruise that continues to this day.
But in recent years, it’s also become a hotbed for out-of-towners in search of street cred and Instagram likes, a launching pad for drivers to make their name.
“If you want internet clout, you have to go to Compton,” Galaz said. “That’s no secret.”
During a July 28 takeover in the city, California Highway Patrol (CHP) arrested 63 spectators, issued 66 citations, and impounded 28 vehicles, according to the agency.
Recent LASD data show the vast majority of takeovers in the first quarter of this year—219 out of 289—happened in the county’s Second Supervisorial District, which includes South L.A. and parts of the Harbor Region. Most of those were in the cities of Compton and Carson, which had 90 and 109 incidents, respectively. This is an increase over the previous quarter, when there were 173 takeovers in the District, out of a total 234 incidents, with 74 and 58 in Compton and Carson.
Meanwhile, the Fourth and First Districts, which cover the southeastern and eastern parts of the county, had 55 and 15 incidents in the first months of 2024. There were no takeovers reported in District Three, which includes West L.A. cities, or District Five, which covers the northern part of the county.
“The increase in illegal street takeovers is deeply troubling,” Compton Mayor Emma Sharif told The Epoch Times. “It goes against the values of our city—it really does. This issue has had a severe impact on our community, affecting both the safety and the well being of residents.”
Both Compton and Carson do not have their own police forces but contract with the L.A. Sheriff’s Department, which coordinates with other agencies like the CHP on traffic enforcement. Carson city officials did not respond to a request for comment.
Looking at LAPD data for the city of Los Angeles, it appears that street racing and takeovers peaked in 2020, with 912 incidents. There were 319 in 2019, and the numbers have fluctuated since, dropping to 482 last year.
That shows redistribution, not eradication, observers say.
“Just because it has peaked in the city of Los Angeles doesn’t mean it’s gone down across the county,” Damian Kevitt, executive director of the nonprofit Streets Are for Everyone, told The Epoch Times.
As the LAPD’s street racing task force has gotten more aggressive, he said, the crackdown has pushed the problem to outlying communities like Compton and unincorporated areas.
The CHP, which enforces vehicle code in Los Angeles County, responded to 100 street takeovers, issued 2,000 citations, arrested 500 people for reckless driving, driving under the influence, spectating, and weapons offenses, and impounded more than 400 vehicles in unincorporated areas of L.A. County last year, according to the agency.
“Street racers will show up, do their takeovers, spend 45 minutes—they know how long it will take for the task force to do their thing, then they’re off to the next location,” said Kevitt.
LASD and LAPD data show takeovers increased in the first months of 2024 in both the county and the city, but the county saw an overall 15 percent dip in the second quarter over the first, from 289 to 245 incidents, LASD officials told the board at the July meeting.
That’s still more than the fourth quarter of last year, and Compton is trending upward.
‘More Brazen, More Violent’
In its June 12 report responding to a directive from the city council, the LAPD pointed to the diminishing ability of law enforcement officers and first responders to intervene at takeovers, which often include hundreds of spectators and countless vehicles.
Spectators use laser pointers to blind officers and helicopters, launch fireworks at police, intentionally ram and swarm cars, and resist arrest.
“I think they feel like they’re untouchable,” Galaz said. “And because it’s one police unit with two officers that shows up, they’re outnumbered right off the bat. So now you’ve got these kids that are out there blocking the cars, throwing rocks and bottles and shooting fireworks and doing that type of stuff to the police. … They just don’t care.”
Street racing has always been anti-authoritarian, but Galaz notes racers used to be more concerned with demonstrating their skills than taunting law enforcement.
“The last thing we wanted to do was get the attention of law enforcement while we’re out trying to get something done, you know? But it seems like they’re taunting them,” he said. “I don’t understand the logic behind wanting to do these things and just the amount of disrespect.”
Law enforcement and first responders are already stretched thin by budget deficits, understaffing, and an all-consuming homelessness crisis. For all the above reasons, agencies are looking to outsource some policing to technology.
“We’re not going in the center of the takeover anymore. It’s just too dangerous for us,” CHP South L.A. Commander Joe Zivi told the board in July. “There is no doubt these takeovers are more brazen, more violent.”
The CHP already monitors hotspots with helicopters and airplanes equipped with infrared technology and recording that can be used for prosecution, and soon it will have high-powered cameras to read license plates in real time, which they hope to bring to judges to get 30-day seizures, and then impound the vehicles at a later date, Zivi said.
Meanwhile, LASD hopes to expand a pilot program that uses drones to help with racing and takeover enforcement, while some cities are initiating their own programs.
In March, Carson debuted a new drone policy to “enhance city services,” and in April, it announced the installation of a multi-million-dollar, “state-of-the-art” surveillance system across the city to help “reduce suspicious activity” and increase stolen vehicle recovery as part of LASD’s License Plate Recognition Camera Project.
But some question the logic of investing in high-tech cameras to photograph license plates when many of the cars involved are stolen—and the drivers may be long gone by the time police show up.
Culture Clash
For older generations in racing and cruising scenes, contemporary takeovers and their attendant chaos are casting a long shadow.
“I think the car culture has been, and still is under attack from different angles,” Galaz said. “People will say law enforcement is just taking the fun out of things. But then the takeovers are giving a black eye to the whole culture,” he said.
Developed by Mexican Americans in the post-WWII era, lowriding is a beloved and recognizable part of the Southern California cultural mosaic, memorialized in art exhibitions, books, films—and now imitated by adolescents with disposable income in places such as Saudi Arabia.
Last year, Governor Gavin Newsom signed a bill legalizing lowriding and cruising—or driving “low and slow” to show off modified classic cars, overriding previous restrictions.
At the July 30 board meeting, public speakers from racing and lowrider clubs came out to remind the government that cruising is legal and should not be painted with the same brush as illegal takeovers.
Three days ago, word of an alleged whistleblower from ABC News emerged following the Trump-Harris debate who claimed, among other things, that Harris was given questions in advanced.
While unverified – and should therefore be taken with a grain of salt for now, the whistleblower also claims there are three topics that were off-limits.
President Biden’s health
Kamala’s tenure as Attorney General and District Attorney
“her brother-in-law, Tony West, who faces allegations of embezzling billions of dollars in taxpayer funds and who may be involved in her administration if elections.”
Kamala Harris’ brother-in-law married her sister Maya in 1998, and was one of her first political advisors, helping with the 2003 San Francisco District Attorney race.
As head of the Justice Department’s Civil Division, Tony West took advantage of the Treasury Department’s secret “Judgement Fund”, a slush account used to pay inflated settlements without Congressional oversight.
Basically – if a government agency was being sued, this tax-payer funded slush-fund could be used to pay lawyers and special interest groups at the DOJ’s discretion to settle the issue. Payments of 10’s of thousands and millions of dollars.
President Trump banned this fund when he took office, but Biden made it legal again in 2021.
“When the federal government settles a case against a corporate wrongdoer, any settlement funds should go first to the victims and then to the American people— not to bankroll third-party special interest groups or the political friends of whoever is in power,” said Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
“Unfortunately, in recent years the Department of Justice has sometimes required or encouraged defendants to make these payments to third parties as a condition of settlement. With this directive, we are ending this practice and ensuring that settlement funds are only used to compensate victims, redress harm, and punish and deter unlawful conduct.”
Tony West’s first order of business, according to one of his deputy’s emails, was to find the “best way” to use this settlement fund to “allocate” money toward his friend’s organizations.
“Settlements became the vehicle for paying off political allies,” according to Daniel Huff, former counsel to the Senate and House Judiciary Committees.
One of Tony West’s biggest scores was a 2010 settlement with 91 Hispanic and female farmers who claimed they were illegally discriminated against.
Tony West intervened and “engineered a stunning turnabout” according to the New York Times. The DOJ agreed to a $1.33 billion settlement, including thousands of farmers who were never even involved in the case, and Native American farmers.
The left-wing NY Times admitted at the time that Tony West’s settlement was a “runaway train, driven by racial politics . . . and law firms that stand to gain more than $130 million in fees.”
The settlement payment grew to over $4.4 billion, creating a $60 million windfall for the lead lawyer, Joseph M. Sellers, who just so happened to also be a member of the Obama/Biden transition team.
Tony West also concocted a series of shady bank settlements with victims of the housing crisis, with questionable provisions requiring banks to make almost a billion dollars in mandatory donations to Democrat-supporting activist groups, excluding all conservative property rights orgs.
The Tony West corrupt settlement system was again used in 2016 to make Volkswagen fund a $2 billion White House electric car initiative that Congress had blocked. Tony then got a job with Uber, which profits greatly with the shift to EV.
An email from the head of the Indiana Bar literally shows staff saying they ought to “build a statue to West and bow down to this statue each day” after they receive their $200k pay day.
The agreement was co-signed by then-California AG Kamala Harris, all while being advised by Tony West, her soon-to-be White House counsel, if she wins.
DOJ used Tony West’s settlement system to pay FBI Agents Peter Strzok and Lisa Page $2 million after their anti-Trump texts were published.
Strzok and Page became the target of Trump’s fury soon after the texts became public, showing the two officials disparaging Trump and his supporters. The pair discussed efforts to “stop” Trump from becoming president and characterized aspects of their work as an “insurance policy.”
Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., made the startling claim Thursday that there are at least five known assassination teams in the U.S. conspiring to assassinate Donald Trump.
Gaetz told Just the News and Breitbart that a senior Homeland Security official told him about the five assassination conspiracies before Sunday’s latest attempt on Trump at his West Palm Beach golf course.
“Three of them that we know are foreign in nature. Two of them we know are domestic in nature, and that calls for a force protection that we do not have around the former president right now,” Gaetz said said, adding that DHS officials are “aware of this and were concerned that the Secret Service was not providing sufficient support.”
“Three of these teams are foreign-inspired, from my understanding – Iranians, Ukraine, Pakistan – and, you know, the work is obviously challenging to protect—protective detail, like a presidential campaign that is vigorous and out campaigning,” Gaetz said.
Matt Gaetz says the DHS knows of 5 assassination teams targeting President Trump, 3 of which are “inspired by other governments,” 2 of which are domestic.
Gaetz didn’t go into detail about the alleged assassination teams.
Sunday’s would-be assassin, Ryan Routh, may have been the Ukrainian-inspired conspiracy he referred to. As has been widely documented, Routh went to Ukraine in 2022 and claimed to have helped recruit fighters for the country’s war against Russia.
Routh’s actions in Ukraine apparently disturbed his colleagues there. One of them, a nurse named Chelsea Walsh, reported him to Customs and Border Protection in June 2022.
Walsh again reported him to the FBI and Interpol last year, after she heard that was attempting to recruit Syrian refugees to fight in Ukraine.
“She filed an online report with the FBI and Interpol outlining her concerns about Routh and others, she said. Neither Customs nor the FBI followed up with her,” the WSJ reported earlier this week.
One of the other plots cited by Gaetz is likely related to the Pakistani man arrested on July 12 for allegedly trying to hire undercover FBI agents to assassinate Donald Trump.
Internal FBI documents leaked to Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, earlier this month included new information about the Pakistani terrorist’s alleged Iranian handler, as well as his movements and interactions in the U.S.
Both Merchant and Routh have pled not guilty in their respective cases.
America’s corporate leaders plan to pull back on hiring over the next six months and expect a slowdown in sales, according to a survey of CEOs, which comes as cooling in the jobs market has prompted the Federal Reserve to deliver a significant 50 basis-point rate cut.
The Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey, released on Sept. 18, paints a picture of a softening labor market and expectations for a decline in consumer spending.
The survey’s composite index, which measures CEO expectations for capital spending, hiring, and sales over the next six months, fell five points, to 79, in the latest survey. This marks the first time that the index has dipped below its historical average of 83 this year.
The drop in the index is largely driven by reduced hiring expectations and a sharp decrease in anticipated sales, despite a slight uptick in capital investment plans.
“This is the second consecutive quarter in which CEOs have reported they are moderating their hiring plans,” Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said in a statement.
Capital-investment plans showed a slight improvement, with the subindex tracking capital expenditures rising by three points, to 73. Bolten said this signals ongoing near-term business investment in things such as equipment and technology, which drive growth and productivity.
Sales expectations took a significant hit, however, with the sales subindex falling 13 points, to 110, in the latest survey. This suggests that CEOs are increasingly concerned about moderating demand for goods and services as the economy cools.
CEOs also reported more cautious hiring plans over the next six months, with the hiring subindex falling by five points, to 55. Despite the slowdown, less than 30 percent of the surveyed executives indicated they plan to cut headcount, a figure that is not far below the historical average. In addition, 37 percent of CEOs said they expect no change in their workforce, while 34 percent expect to increase hiring.
The decline in sales expectations could be influencing companies’ more conservative hiring strategies, with Bolten saying that the survey results seem broadly “consistent with the Fed’s perspective on a softening economy.”
The CEOs surveyed by the Business Roundtable predicted that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) would grow 2.3 percent for all of 2024. That’s a slightly faster pace of growth than the 2.0 percent that Federal Reserve policymakers expect, according to the central bank’s latest economic projections, released on Sept. 18, as the Fed delivered an unusually large 50 basis-point rate cut, citing deteriorating labor market conditions.
“In the labor market, conditions have continued to cool. Payroll job gains averaged 116,000 per month over the past three months, a notable stepdown from the pace seen earlier in the year,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a Sept. 18 press conference that followed the announcement of a rate cut—the first in four years.
“Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year, and the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed,” Powell continued. “Overall, a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019.”
Powell said that as inflation has fallen closer to the Fed’s target of 2 percent and the labor market has cooled, the downside risks to employment have risen.
Fed officials now expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4 percent by the end of the year, up from 4.2 percent currently, and sharply higher than the 4.0 percent they projected in June.
Signaling that an era of monetary easing has begun, the central bank chief said that the “recalibration” of the Fed’s policy would help boost the economy and shore up the labor market.
Investors and economists have become increasingly focused on cracks in the labor market and signs of slowing growth.
Job openings slumped to their lowest level in more than three years in July, according to the government’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released on Sept. 4.
Layoffs for the month of August hit their highest level for the month in 15 years—excluding the pandemic recession of 2020—according to a recent Challenger, Gray & Christmas report.
“The labor market overall is softening,” Andrew Challenger, the firm’s senior vice president, said in a statement.
Hiring plans have also fallen to the lowest year-to-date total since Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking hiring plans in 2005.
Are you part of the 70% of American adults who support protecting the integrity and fairness of women’s sports by opposing males competing with and against females? If so, you’ll have a chance to stand with women in less than two months when America goes to the polls to choose the leaders who will make the laws and regulations that ensure women’s sports are only for women.
Let’s face it: Women’s rights are on the line in this election. The attack on our ability to compete fairly and safely in athletic competitions is unlike any we’ve seen since the enactment of Title IX in 1972. That law – which prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in any school or education program that receives federal funds – is largely responsible for the exponential growth of women’s sports over the last 50 years.
That growth in participation is significant: In 1970, just 15% of college athletes were female; today, we make up 44% of college athletes. Female participation in high school sports has exploded over the last five decades, too: During the 1971-72 school year, fewer than 300,000 girls participated in sports – but by 2018-19, that number had increased more than ten-fold to almost 3.5 million girls in competition.
That growth in participation, brought about by the legally mandated equality of the sexes, is now threatened by politicians, too many of whom appear more committed to ideological goals than to biological reality.
Since the start of the Biden-Harris administration, federal bureaucrats have moved aggressively to tilt the playing field. The Biden-Harris administration’s rewrite of Title IX regulations, released April 19 of this year, takes the view that keeping women’s sports all female violates Title IX. That’s just wrong.
I’ve been fighting this kind of thinking at the federal and state level for some time. We’ve made significant progress – 26 states now have laws or regulations on the books protecting women’s sports. And at the federal level, we’ve succeeded in passing legislation through the House, and we’ve forced a vote in the Senate, which allows us to know who’s with us and who’s not. (For the record, on that House vote, every member of Congress who voted for the Protection of Women in Sports Act was a Republican, and every member who voted against it was a Democrat. And in the Senate, every incumbent Democratic senator voted against bringing a women’s sports amendment to the floor for a vote, while every senator who cosponsors the Title IX Congressional Review Act resolution is a Republican.)
We still have a ways to go. After the elections, we’ll have a new president and a new Congress, and we’ll try again to move legislation at the federal level to protect women’s sports and spaces – like domestic violence shelters, rape crisis centers, women’s prisons, and locker rooms, for example. So electing the right leaders in November will be crucial to the success of our efforts next year.
To that end, Independent Women’s Voice has created the Riley Gaines Stand with Women Scorecard, a helpful tool that will draw clear contrasts on the issue. On the one hand will be lawmakers and prospective lawmakers who support fairness, equal opportunity, safety, and privacy in women’s sports and spaces; on the other hand will be those who do not.
The Scorecard is as simple as it sounds – it’s a first-of-its-kind resource that scores every candidate for federal office on whether or not they “Stand with Women,” meaning that they are committed to supporting legislation that preserves female opportunities and private spaces. The Riley Gaines Stand with Women Scorecard, made possible by Independent Women’s Voice, will become an indispensable tool for those of us committed to this vital issue.
Elections are about choices, and campaigns are about contrasts. The choices we make in November will guide the policies enacted and implemented by government at the federal, state, and local level, and will, in many ways, shape the contours of the contests in which our sisters and daughters compete and the safety they feel in their women-only spaces.
This new tool to help identify candidates who are as committed to the cause as we are will help ease the way forward as we fight to maintain equality of the sexes.
We know what a woman is, and what a female is, and we’re committed to standing with women for fairness and equality. We believe our political leaders should know and be committed to those things, too. And now, with Independent Women Voice’s Riley Gaines Stand with Women Scorecard, we’ll know which politicians are worthy of our support – and which are not.
Riley Gaines is an ambassador for Independent Women’s Voice and the host of the OutKick podcast “Gaines for Girls”.
“Something Brewing In Gulf Of Mexico” As Confidence Grows In Cyclone Formation Next Week
Confidence in weather models is steadily rising. Forecasts now predict potential tropical activity forming in the western Caribbean, with a trajectory toward the US Gulf Coast. Activity in the tropics should be monitored through the weekend, as the next cyclone could target the Gulf Coast’s critical energy infrastructure.
The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore wrote on X, “Confidence continues to increase in the western Caribbean for cyclone formation next week that will eventually come north into the GOM. ”
“How far north and/or east or west is the question which be be based on steering which is unclear at this time and will likely remain that way into the weekend. Perhaps late in the weekend or early next week will will have a new invest and more Confidence on some goal posts,” Cantore said.
Confidence continues to increase in the western Caribbean for cyclone formation next week that will eventually come north into the GOM. How far north and/or east or west is the question which be be based on steering which is unclear at this time and will likely remain that way… pic.twitter.com/BCVoXBLGWe
In a separate X post, Ben Noll, a meteorologist with New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, noted, “The Atlantic looks quite favorable from a convective forcing perspective in the weeks ahead.”
📈 The Atlantic looks quite favorable from a convective forcing perspective in the weeks ahead!
A pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to cross from the eastern Pacific into the Caribbean next week, creating favorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclone… pic.twitter.com/1P9WNdyaNK
Meanwhile, Brian McNoldy, a hurricane expert at the University of Miami, showed unseasonably warm water temps across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
No big deal… we are just waiting to see if a tropical cyclone develops in the western Caribbean Sea and tracks into the Gulf of Mexico next week. Meanwhile, the ocean heat content is record high for the date in *both* bodies of water. 🧐🥵 pic.twitter.com/8UqvPDXUeL
Last week, we pointed out that climate alarmists at corporate leftist media outlets pushed climate doom this hurricane season in the Alantic because they had climate crisis blinders on and believed hot ocean temps translated into higher hurricane activity.
And, oh boy, the ‘trust the science’ crowd was extremely wrong.
The 2020 vs 2024 hurricane scoreboard has been updated. Maybe the oceans aren’t hot enough? pic.twitter.com/p5COdugtHW
Bloomberg reporter and open records expert Jason Leopold revealed Thursday that the Secret Service is apparently investigating Elon Musk over his recent joke about the lack of assassination attempts against regime Democrats.
Responding to someone asking why so people want to kill Donald Trump, on Sunday Musk posted:
“And no one is even trying to assassinate Biden/Kamala.”
Musk later deleted the post and clarified that he was joking.
Well, one lesson I’ve learned is that just because I say something to a group and they laugh doesn’t mean it’s going to be all that hilarious as a post on 𝕏
But the Secret Service may not find Musk’s joke to be a laughing matter. Leopold said he filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the Secret Service’s records on Musk’s post, but was denied the records because they’re subject to law enforcement proceedings.
“On Wednesday, the agency responded to the requests by saying records it has about Musk’s post were ‘compiled for law enforcement purposes’ and are being withheld because ‘disclosure could reasonably be expected to interfere with enforcement proceedings,’” Leopold wrote on Thursday.
Nate Herring, a spokesperson for the Secret Service, also told Leopold that his agency “is aware of the social media post made by Elon Musk.”
“As a matter of practice, we do not comment on matters involving protective intelligence. We can say, however, that the Secret Service investigates all threats related to our protectees,” Herring reportedly said.
Don’t expect any criminal charges against Musk. Leopold said in his experience, the worst that will likely happen will be that agents visit Musk to make sure he doesn’t pose a threat to Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.
Leopold also said he requested records on a Sunday Twitter/X post from the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire, which said that “anyone who murders Kamala Harris would be considered an American hero.” That post, too, has since been deleted.
The Secret Service also withheld records from Leopold on the grounds that they were subject to law enforcement proceedings. And sure enough, FBI agents visited one of the LPNH Twitter account administrators, Jeremy Kauffman. The agents’ interaction with the poster didn’t go as they planned.
The FBI visited my house today for free speech acts they knew were not crimes.
Watch: Neocon Congressman Runs Away When Asked If He’ll Debate Opponent Dennis Kucinich
Ohio Congressman Max Miller (R) was confronted by a journalist asking whether he would debate his congressional challenger — and his district’s predecessor — Dennis Kucinich, who penned a letter on ZeroHedge calling on Miller to debate him. The letter was published in June and sent directly to Miller’s staff. They confirmed receipt but did not accept nor decline the debate.
At Capitol Hill on Tuesday, a journalist with The Grayzone asked Rep. Miller about his unanswered challenge from the Hon. Kucinich, but Miller dodged, said “have a good one”, and briskly walked away.Watch below:
Congressman Max Miller refused to say whether he’d debate fmr Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich, his challenger in Ohio’s 7th District.
“I’ve done twenty townhalls… I believe that is the debate itself,” Miller said. “The fact that you’re here asking me this question I think is funny. Dennis should go out there and speak to the people of the 7th.”
Responding to Miller’s comments, Kucinich told ZeroHedge: “Since the start of the campaign earlier this year, I’ve had over 180 appearances at events and meetings in the district. I’ve always been someone who loves meeting people, and if elected, that’s the sort of congressman I’ll be.”
Miller takes the hawkish hardline on national security, having voted in favor of the most recent Ukraine supplemental bill (which allotted several billion for Taiwan and Israel too) and being among the minority of Republicans who voted against the Biggs-FISA amendment for that bill, which would have prevented “warrantless searches on Americans”. The amendment failed in a tie (212–212), meaning one member could have changed the outcome.
I would think that Max Miller’s extreme anti-Palestinian rhetoric, like calling to turn Gaza “into a parking lot,” is the operative context herepic.twitter.com/c5CoaPBxoY
Miller also called for Gaza to be turned into a “parking lot” at the start of the Gaza conflict:
In his letter challenging Miller to debate, Kucinich made these issues a sticking point. He wrote: “The escalating wars in the Middle East and Europe threaten to plunge us into the abyss of World War 3. In this critical moment in our nation’s history, it is our duty to engage in open and honest discourse about the path forward.”
Kucinich ran for president in 2004 as a staunch opponent of the Iraq War — introducing 35 articles of impeachment against former President George Bush — and later criticized former President Barack Obama following the 2011 military intervention in Libya.
ZeroHedge continues to offer both candidates the opportunity to debate with a neutral moderator of their choosing. We hope Miller will accept.
Currency carry trades, while seemingly straightforward, carry significant risks due to their reliance on interest rate differentials between countries. Investors borrow in a low-interest currency, like the yen, to invest in higher-yielding assets.
These trades are often unhedged and leveraged, magnifying potential profits but also exposing investors to substantial risks, especially if interest rates or currency values shift unexpectedly. The biggest risk is the implicit assumption that these differentials will remain stable, which rarely holds true over the long term.
Historically, even fixed currency pegs, such as those attempted by the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England, have failed due to unsustainable capital flows. Despite the lessons learned from past failures, such as when the U.S. decoupled the dollar from the gold standard in 1971, investors are often lured by the allure of stable, easy returns from carry trades.
However, carry trades can appear benign for years before unraveling catastrophically, leading to sudden and severe market volatility. This was the case in the recent yen carry trade crisis of August 2024.
The BoJ now faces a dilemma: Do they protect the Yen with higher interest rates? Or protect the Japanese government bond market with lower rates.
They cannot do both.
This is because the tools used to protect their currency conflict with the tools used to protect the bond market. And vice versa.
To protect a currency, A central bank will typically raise interest rates to make the currency more attractive to investors, which can help stabilize or increase its value. However, higher interest rates increase borrowing costs, leading to lower bond prices and rising yields, which can destabilize the bond market. This dynamic creates a policy dilemma, particularly in economies heavily reliant on debt, as higher yields can hurt economic growth and raise concerns about government debt sustainability.
On the other hand, protecting the bond market requires central banks to keep interest rates low, which supports bond prices and keeps borrowing costs manageable for governments and businesses. However, lower interest rates tend to weaken a currency by making it less attractive to investors seeking higher returns. A weaker currency can fuel inflation by increasing the cost of imports, particularly in energy-dependent economies. Central banks are thus caught in a balancing act, where prioritizing one market often exacerbates risks in the other, making it difficult to maintain stability across both simultaneously.
This is all happening as the same time the U.S. Federal Reserve is nearing a potential interest rate easing cycle, creating a squeeze on yen carry trade investors who face rate increases in Japan and potential rate cuts in the U.S.
One of the ironies associated with the recent volatility ascribed to the Yen carry trade is that we have seen this same thing many times in the recent past. The 2008 global financial crisis offers a stark example of carry trade failure. At the time, Yen carry trades funded investments in higher-yielding assets worldwide. When risk aversion surged, investors unwound their positions, leading to a sharp yen appreciation and widespread losses.
Similarly, the Swiss National Bank’s abandonment of its euro currency peg in 2015 resulted in significant losses for those engaged in Swiss franc carry trades, as the franc appreciated by up to 30% overnight.
Iceland’s experience in 2008 is another reminder of the dangers of carry trades. Investors borrowed in low-interest currencies, like the yen, to invest in Icelandic assets. When the financial crisis hit, Iceland’s currency collapsed, leading to the implosion of its banking sector and a severe economic recession.
The Yen carry trade crisis of August 2024 is likely far from over. With the BoJ continuing to raise rates while global monetary policy diverges, the potential for further market disruptions remains high. As interest rate differentials shift between Japan and other economies, particularly the U.S., central banks are left with limited policy options.
The choice between protecting a nation’s currency or its bond market becomes increasingly difficult, and the volatility in global financial markets may continue to escalate as a result.
Investors and policymakers alike must understand the dynamics associated with carry trades as the turbulence associated with them can strike out of nowhere, and there is nothing to indicate these risks have been fully removed from the global landscape.
Background
The Japanese Economy and the Challenges facing the Bank of Japan
Japan has been grappling with economic stagnation and deflation since the early 1990s, following the bursting of its asset price bubble.
The “lost decades” that ensued were characterized by sluggish economic growth, persistently low (negative) inflation, and a declining population. These challenges led the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to adopt a series of unconventional monetary policies in an effort to revive the economy.
The BoJ’s strategy included maintaining near-zero interest rates and engaging in large-scale asset purchases (quantitative easing) to inject liquidity into the financial system and stimulate economic activity.
Despite these efforts, Japan struggled to achieve its inflation target of 2%, with inflation remaining stubbornly low or even negative for extended periods. This prolonged period of deflationary pressure led to the introduction of yield curve control (YCC) in 2016, a policy aimed at keeping long-term interest rates low by capping the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at around 0%.
Yield Curve Control and Its Implications
Yield curve control was designed to anchor borrowing costs across the Japanese economy, encouraging investment and spending. By keeping long-term rates low, the BoJ aimed to stimulate economic growth and push inflation closer to its target. However, this policy also had significant implications for Japan’s financial system and its currency.
Under YCC, the BoJ became the dominant buyer of JGBs, amassing a substantial portion of the market (around 50% of all issuances) and effectively controlling long-term interest rates. While this helped to keep borrowing costs low, it also meant that Japan’s interest rates remained exceptionally low compared to those in other developed economies, especially as global economic conditions began to change.
Global Monetary Tightening and the Interest Rate Differential
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery period led to a dramatic shift in global monetary policy.
As economies reopened and demand surged, inflationary pressures mounted worldwide. Supply chain shocks and bottlenecks, in addition to increasing trade tensions between the US and China also compounded inflation pressures in the COVID aftermath.
In the United States and Europe, inflation reached multi-decade highs, driven by supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and rising energy prices. In response, central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) began to tighten monetary policy aggressively.
The Federal Reserve in particular embarked on a series of rapid interest rate hikes to combat inflation, moving away from the ultra-loose policies that had characterized the previous decade.
This tightening created a significant interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies, particularly the United States. As U.S. interest rates rose, the yield on U.S. assets became increasingly attractive to global investors compared to the near-zero yields on Japanese assets.
This shift in investor preference put downward pressure on the yen, as capital flowed out of Japan and into higher-yielding U.S. assets.
The Global Energy Crisis and Trade Imbalances
The yen’s decline was further exacerbated by the global energy crisis that unfolded in 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of that year sent shockwaves through global energy markets, driving up the prices of oil, natural gas, and other commodities.
Japan, as one of the world’s largest importers of energy, was particularly vulnerable to these price increases. The cost of importing energy soared, leading to a sharp deterioration in Japan’s trade balance.
A widening trade deficit typically weakens a country’s currency, as more of the currency is sold to pay for imports than is bought by foreign buyers of exports. In Japan’s case, the situation was compounded by the already declining yen, which made energy imports even more expensive in yen terms.
This created a vicious cycle where the weak yen increased the cost of imports, further exacerbating the trade deficit, putting additional downward pressure on the currency and increasing domestic inflation pressures.
Speculative Pressure and Market Dynamics
As the yen continued to weaken, it attracted the attention of currency speculators. Speculative trading, driven by the expectation that the yen would continue to fall, intensified the currency’s decline. Traders, betting on further depreciation, engaged in short selling the yen, which added to the selling pressure.
This speculative activity amplified the yen’s decline, making it one of the worst-performing major currencies during this period.
The yen’s weakness became something of a self-fulfilling prophecy, as each round of selling led to more traders jumping on the bandwagon, expecting further declines. The speculative pressure also highlighted the vulnerability of currencies that are perceived to be out of sync with global monetary trends, especially when central banks are seen as committed to policies that diverge from global norms.
Government and Central Bank Responses
Faced with the yen’s rapid depreciation and its potential negative impact on the economy, the Japanese government and the BOJ were compelled to take action. Initially, the response involved verbal interventions, with top officials, including Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, expressing concern about the yen’s volatility and warning that excessive weakness could harm the economy.
These statements were intended to signal to the markets that the government was closely monitoring the situation and was prepared to act if necessary.
However, as the yen continued to fall, verbal interventions proved insufficient.
In September 2022, Japan intervened directly in the foreign exchange markets by selling U.S. dollars and buying yen, marking its first intervention in the currency markets since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998.
The intervention was aimed at stabilizing the yen and curbing its rapid decline. While the intervention provided a temporary boost to the yen, it was not enough to reverse the broader trend, as the fundamental factors driving the yen’s weakness—such as the interest rate differential and the trade deficit—remained in place.
The BoJ, meanwhile, maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy despite growing pressure to adjust its approach. Then-BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda emphasized the need to support Japan’s economic recovery and argued that tightening policy prematurely could derail progress toward the bank’s inflation target.
This stance was based on the view that Japan’s inflation, which was primarily driven by external factors like energy prices, would not be sustained without stronger domestic demand. The BoJ’s commitment to its existing policy framework, despite the yen’s decline, underscored the challenges of balancing domestic economic priorities with the realities of a rapidly changing global financial environment.
Impact on the Japanese Economy
The yen crisis had mixed effects on the Japanese economy. On the one hand, the weaker yen benefited Japan’s export-oriented industries by making Japanese goods more competitive in international markets.
Major exporters, such as Toyota, Sony, and other manufacturers, saw their profits increase as they earned more yen per unit of foreign currency. This helped boost corporate earnings and supported Japan’s stock market.
On the other hand, the weaker yen significantly increased the cost of imports, particularly energy and raw materials. This contributed to rising input costs for Japanese businesses, squeezing profit margins for companies that relied on imported goods. For consumers, the weaker yen led to higher prices for imported products, contributing to a rise in consumer inflation.
While inflation remained below the BoJ’s 2% target, the cost-push nature of the inflation – driven by higher import costs rather than strong domestic demand – raised concerns about the sustainability of price increases and the impact on household purchasing power.
The yen crisis of August 2024 was years in the making and has several long-term implications for Japan and the global financial system. It has highlighted the imbalances that can build up in a world of ultra-low (and even negative) interest rates combined with a global marketplace.
The crisis also underscored the challenges of managing a currency in an environment of divergent monetary policies and global financial volatility. It also serves as a reminder of the interconnectedness of financial markets and the potential for currency volatility to spill over into other areas of the economy.
There have been many other examples of “carry crises”, where there is an underlying implicit assumption that currency valuations will remain constant. Indeed, almost invariably, currency movements have been seismic at the very times that they were widely expected to be most stable.
It is also important to note that all other things being equal, currency hedging costs tend to eat up the respective differences between currencies. This typically removes any advantages of currency hedging, making all such carry trades completely vulnerable to such tectonic shifts.
In that context, it is worth examining historical examples and consequences of such carry trades.
