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Does Anyone Else Smell A Market Crash In The Air?

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Does Anyone Else Smell A Market Crash In The Air?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Markets are manipulated, yes, but they’re still structures of tightly bound, self-organizing complexity which lend themselves to sudden non-linear collapses.

Just as thunderstorms scent the air before their arrival, market crashes often announce themselves in the autumn zephyrs. Markets don’t crash when everyone’s in full-blown panic? they crash when the headlines and data are reassuring, analysts are confident in ever-higher profits, and complacency reigns supreme, evidenced by record-high household allocation in stocks and bullish sentiment readings.

Markets crash after a brief bit of panic selling is immediately bought and markets are returned to a permanently high plateau of valuation as we saw in August, as the S&P 500 shot back up within a whisker or two of all-time highs. Punters buy every dip because this quick reaction to any drop has been richly rewarded for 15 years, and everyone has confidence in the Fed Put , ie the belief that the Fed will move Heaven and Earth to restore “market confidence” and the wealth effect .

In other words, market participants have embraced moral hazard : there is no real downside, there is only upside to buying every dip.

Markets crash when the rot beneath the surface is invisible or goes unnoticed. The few doom-and-gloomers who note extremes are immediately mocked off the stage, and the headlines tout the resilience of the economy, markets, employment, profits, and the techno-wonders heading our way.

After the crash nobody predicted, analysts swarm like ravenous locusts to the digital airwaves to lay claim to their prescience: look, look, I added a one-line disclaimer about “irrational exuberance” at the end of my report!

I’ll spare you the analog charts and go right to the chase: the Oasis Indicator , brought to our collective attention by Joe Sullivan-Bennett via BondVigilantes.com: The Peculiar Relationship Between Oasis & Periods Of Extreme Market Volatility (Zero Hedge). (Fun fact: Before Oasis Wonderwall , there was George Harrison’s 1968 soundtrack LP Wonderwall .)

Those turning up their nose at the Oasis Indicator might benefit from pondering these “jaws of death” charts. Everything is extreme and stays extreme until it doesn’t. Consider the gaping pearly teeth of the SPX (S&P 500) and JPY (Japanese yen).

Or the Mack the Knife of SPX and Fed reserves: You know when that shark bites with his teeth, Scarlet billows start to spread…

And last but not least, the 2-year Treasury yield and the Nasdaq Index:a loaded mousetrap if there ever was one.

There’s no convincing the complacent. You either sense what’s coming or you don’t. It’s like a sixth sense in a way, an intuitive awareness developed by absorbing huge losses in previous “unpredicted” crashes.

Markets are manipulated, yes, but they’re still structures of tightly bound, self-organizing complexity which lend themselves to sudden non-linear collapses.

But never mind, a little autumn shower never hurts anyone. And so nobody carries an umbrella on a day that starts out sunny and clouds over too quickly to respond.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 18:05

Goldman Finds “Thrift Trends Outperform” Amid Consumer Slowdown 

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Goldman Finds “Thrift Trends Outperform” Amid Consumer Slowdown 

Goldman cited new data in a note to clients on Monday from Placer.ai, a startup that tracks and analyzes foot traffic from mobile devices at brick-and-mortar retailers. The data revealed that consumers continue trading down to ‘off-price’ stores as elevated inflation and high interest rates financially squeeze low- and mid-tier consumers. 

The team of Goldman analysts, led by Brooke Roach and Evan Dorschner, told clients they updated their “trackers for August store traffic on a visits per venue basis (sourced via Placer.ai) for department stores, off-price, and select specialty retailers and others within our coverage.” 

“On balance, traffic trends sequentially improved in August across every retailer we track following weaker results in July,” the analysts said. 

However, they pointed out, “Within this, off-price and thrift trends continue to outperform other consumer discretionary retailers, while department store and specialty retail traffic results have been fairly choppy YTD. Athletic brands (lululemon and Nike Factory Store) have underperformed.” 

Thrift is in…

What’s not in is paying full retail at Lululemon Athletica and Nike stores. 

And we wonder why. 

The big takeaway from the latest earnings season in corporate America is extreme weakness from low/mid-tier consumers. Last month, we noted that earnings call mentions of a “consumer downturn” soared to the highest levels since the financial crisis. Also, “trading down” mentions have surged in recent years as the middle class implodes under failed Bidenomics. The last time this happened was around GFC. 

Welcome to America under Biden-Harris. The inflation storm has transformed a nation of consumers into Walmart and Dollar General shoppers.

Goldman told clients on July 15 that Walmart had the best grocery deals. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 17:40

VDH: The Biden-Harris World Is Afire

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VDH: The Biden-Harris World Is Afire

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Somehow the United States ended up this summer with no engaged president and an absent vice president who avoids the missing president and is frantically repudiating everything she co-owned the last three years.

The world was already confused over how President Joe Biden was apparently declared by unnamed Democratic insiders and donors unfit and unable to continue as their presidential candidate—as if he were a dethroned Third-World usurper.

It further wondered how those who staged his removal had no problem allowing him, in his debilitated state, to continue as America’s commander-in-chief until January 20, 2025. They demonstrated their priorities that focus on retaining power, not the welfare of the nation or the will of over 14 million Biden primary voters.

Vice President Kamala Harris, until Biden’s forced abdication, was judged by these same backroom fixers as too incompetent to ever be commander-in-chief and thus for three years a good reason why Biden apparently was not forced out earlier.

Now nominal Vice President Harris is on the campaign trail nonstop, while Biden has taken the most vacation time off and worked the shortest workweek in presidential memory.

The world again wonders who is in charge, what they believe, who is a friend, and who is an enemy. Harris is busy trying to get elected on three premises: disowning her prior co-ownership of what was mostly a disastrous Biden term and certainly no recommendation for reelection; reinventing her affluent radical past and present as moderate and working-class; and keeping absolutely silent about any detailed agenda or policy plan for governance as president.

Our rivals and opponents abroad cannot decide which is better for their own anti-American agendas—a derelict and absent Biden-Harris or dealing with a cognitively challenged Biden and a linguistically loopy Harris?

So, again, who or what now governs America?

Is it Biden again at the beach or closing up shop at noon for his nap and early bedtime?

Or is it Vice President Harris, far from the White House, out campaigning and confused over who she really is or wants to be, what, if anything, she plans on doing if elected president, and how to avoid any unscripted moment?

Or are our real rulers the stealth cabal of Democratic grandees and billionaire donors who arranged the Biden presidency by forcing out his 2020 primary rivals, staged the conspiratorial silence about his real disabilities for well over three years, ambushed him, and forced him off the Democratic ticket, and are now frantically reinventing Kamala Harris as capable and centrist when just a few months ago they had written her off as incompetent and a hopeless wannabe California radical?

As a result, a confused but also encouraged world of enemies watches the listless United States and wonders whether to try something stupid.

In this widening vacuum, lots of foreign opportunists, outright enemies, and nihilists are seizing the day—on the assurance that Biden is not a lame duck, but a lame, lame duck, and Harris is a near functionary in search of an identity and an idea.

The Houthis, a ragtag cabal of terrorists who hijacked Yemen after shaking off a few prior Biden “precision” retaliatory strikes, now “own” the Red Sea. They just hit a Greek-flagged oil tanker that is now adrift and polluting the Red Sea. It serves as their warning for commercial ships to keep clear of their mare nostrum.

The Houthis expect neither a Western nor an American response to ensure safe transit in and out of the southern Mediterranean by the world’s commercial fleet. Apparently, they believe that they are so backward, and their drones are so cheap and simple that the top-heavy U.S. cannot afford to hit their ad hoc launches with sophisticated, multimillion-dollar, and often misapplied weapons. And they are probably right.

Indeed, under Biden-Harris, the world has now lost free and safe transit in the Red Sea, the Black Sea, the South China Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Will the Caribbean or mid-Atlantic be next? The military is short thousands of troops, the merchant marines idling ships.

Our NATO enemy/“ally” Turkey—when it is not threatening to send missiles against fellow NATO member Greece, bragging about once again ethnic cleansing Armenians, leveling more warnings to Cyprus, bombing the Kurds, colluding with the Russians and Chinese, trying to veto Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, or claiming US nuclear weapons based in Turkey are virtually its own—apparently has created such an anti-American climate that its pro-Erdogan street thugs feel they can beat up visiting American sailors, docking at Izmir to help aid the Turkish navy.

Not a peep follows from the White House. If it had, President Recep Erdogan would have leveled one of his accustomed unhinged responses.

Hamas just murdered more of its Israeli hostages, among them an American citizen.

Now non-candidate Biden is apparently still more worried about 250,000 Muslim voters in Michigan (who profess more solidarity with Hamas than lament the murder of a fellow citizen) than US interests in the Middle East. He customarily and matter-of-factly issued one of his empty editorials before returning to form by performance art blasting Israel.

In Biden’s world, our closest and only democratic ally in the Middle East is at fault because it will not, this election year, give constant concessions to the murderous Hamas clique. Biden-Harris forget that Hamas started the current war by butchering 1,200 Israelis at a time of peace, scrambled back to its subterranean labyrinth with over 250 hostages, hid their terrorist killers under schools, hospitals, and mosques, murdered any who were about to be rescued by Israeli forces, and promised to kill more if rescue attempts continue.

The Biden-Harris messaging seems simple: pro-Western, civilized, and consensually governed nations are rational and so listen to the U.S. and therefore should be leveraged and often punished for rationality; anti-American, medieval, and theocratic terrorist cabals do not and therefore should be appeased and exempted from criticism or retaliation given their lawlessness.

Normally, when asked about foreign threats to harm Americans or their interests, Biden gives one of his accustomed blowhard, one-word threats, “Don’t!” That empty and tired banality is now interpreted abroad as zero consequences will follow when you harm America. As a general rule, an animated Biden is far more likely to threaten to beat up or go after Trump than Hamas or Iran.

Harris has been mum—other than her usual on the one hand/on the other hand vacuity. Her vice presidential candidate running mate, the usually frenetic and loquacious Tim Walz, when asked directly about the murder of an American hostage, similarly goes mum—and simply waved off the question and turned away. Walz seems as terrified as Harris of any unrehearsed utterance, as if he knows only his silence masks his foolery.

Brazil, as was warned by many, is heading toward full-scale Latin American communism of the Venezuela/Nicaragua/Cuba sort. It is now waging a censorship war against Elon Musk with the tacit approval of the Biden-Harris consortium—for the crime of turning the former useful Twitter leftwing and censored megaphone into a global free speech pavilion.

Ukraine has now been inside Mother Russia for weeks, which is strategically understandable but geo-strategically dangerous against a nuclear hyperpower run by a ruthless dictator. Biden has no clue what the U.S. is doing other than supplying enough arms to Ukraine not to lose but more than enough to trigger a wider theater war. Ask Biden and Harris what the U.S. strategy is on Ukraine, and one will mumble incomprehensibly, the other, if unguarded, plunge into a circular word salad about the “art of diplomacy” or “democratic fragility.”

Iran is more afraid of an Israeli response than U.S. threats.

Or is it worse than that? Does the theocracy now rely on Biden-Harris to restrain any Israeli retaliation for the tens of thousands of rockets launched by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran against the Jewish state.?

All Biden-Harris had to do was continue the Trump protocol of warning Iran to stay out of the conflict. Instead, it de facto greenlighted the Iranian supply chain to Hamas and Hezbollah and turned all of them loose to murder.

In truth, US foreign policy toward Iran is the resumption of the Obama-era embrace of the supposed underdog Shiite/Persian counterweight to Gulf moderates and democratic Israel. Biden-Harris cares not a whit whether Iran goes nuclear and might even in their warped Ben-Rhodes/Barack Obama-era imbecility tacitly support such nuclearization to “rein in” the Jewish state.

Mexico’s outgoing “president,” Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has now unabashedly also gone full communist. As he preps the way for his even harder-left successor, Obrador is seeking to destroy what is left of Mexico’s democracy.

AMLO, remember, bragged of the tens of millions of illegal aliens that Mexico drove out and into the U.S.—especially given the $60 billion in remittances they send to prop up an otherwise failed narco-state. In retirement, he will brag that he was the first Mexican president to destroy the U.S. border.

He even urged all Mexican-American expatriates to vote anti-Republican. For the next few months, he will cooperate with the US to slow down the influx northward in order to allow Harris-Biden to claim they are for pre-November 5 election-cycle “border security.” And thereby help Harris get elected and welcome in another 10 million illegal aliens.

In his delusions, AMLO—who proved one of the truly dangerous anti-Americans on the world stage—thinks he is winning phase two of the 19th-century Mexican War. In fact, all he is proving is that millions of Mexicans want out of his country and only romanticize it when they are safely and permanently distant from its numerous failed paradigms.

In sum, there really is no President Biden or Vice President Harris. The former is non compos mentis and failing ever more rapidly. The latter has no clue who she is or what she should do. The cabal that engineered their respective exits and entrances cares more about retaining power than using it for American interests.

So, we are in perilous times.

All of our enemies and even former neutrals are coming out of the woodwork. They are convinced that the next two months offer one-time advantages—unless Harris is elected and thus can extend their opportunities for four more years of what Americans see as a chaotic decline, but the world abroad views as a rare and ripe opportunity.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 17:15

Stocks Bounce After Brutal Week Despite Apple Unveiling A Dud

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Stocks Bounce After Brutal Week Despite Apple Unveiling A Dud

After the worst week for the S&P since the March 2023 bank crisis…

… one which sent the Nasdaq to one of the most oversold levels since the covid crash…

… today’s bounce back was basically a formality, and bounce back we did after the brutal start to September…

… as all sectors were deep in the green (well, almost all)…

… yet while some tech names enjoyed today’s session, chief among them Palantir and Dell, which learned they would be added to the S&P500 index, pushing the latter to its best one-day gain since February…

… and even Nvidia managing a rebound from the critical $100 level…

… others were less lucky, Google parent Alphabet most notably as the tech giant dropped another 3%, down on 4 of the past 5 days, 7 of the past 9, and decisively breaching below its 200DMA…

… and AAPL failing to capialize on today’s iPhone 16 reveals, which was largely viewed as a dud, sending the stock to session lows before recovering…

… and down 5 of the past 6 sessions.

And so, as the Mag 7 generals that have led the market for the past 2 days are starting to wobble, the critical support below the Mag 7 index is in jeopardy. If the key support line gives way, then it is the 100DMA, then 200DMA… and then things get very ugly…

… although as Goldman TMT specialist Peter Callahn notes, positioning is not yet a major problem:

  • Goldman Prime Broker data shows overall long/short net and gross exposures are moderate, based on a 3-year look-back.
  • Hedge funds and mutual funds cut exposure to Info Tech, holding their lowest tilts to the sector in the past decade.
  • In TMT subsector positioning: Internet > Semis > Software > Hardware > Payments > CME; positioning is no longer a bearish factor for the sector.

That’s the good news. The bad news as Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello noted over the weekend, is that systematic buying is now reversing, and the massive buyback bid which kickstarted the August rebound, enters its blackout period next Friday, among the notable factors that are about to become a headwind for stocks, to wit:

  1. Demand from the systematic trading community has diminished.
  2. Corporate buybacks are tapering, reducing a key support for the market.
  3. Follow-ons and block trades are increasing, but may not fully offset the fading buybacks.
  4. As the derivatives expiry on the 20th approaches, key drivers of the August market bounce (systematic demand and buybacks) will likely fade.
  5. Household investment activity, another key market support, is also slowing down, raising concerns for continued upward momentum.

But wait, there’s more headwinds for the all-important generals, with the annual earnings growth for the Mag 7, still at impressive levels, set for a long, painful convergence with the rest of the S&P500.

Meanwhile, while markets enjoyed today’s rally, that can and will quickly reverse with dealer still deep in negative gamma territory, and all that would take for another trapdoor lower is a sudden drawdown in stocks which forces dealers to chase risk to the downside.

While stocks staged a comeback, the rest of the market was quiet, with bond yields failing to rebound, and after rising in the early morning, yields gradually faded all day only to closer down on the day…

… which in turns hammered the all important carry trade, as the USDJPY first ramped higher after the European open, only to slink back ahead of the cash open and stay there…

… and finally, no matter what happens across the rest of the market universe, one place where the bid refuses to fade is gold: after getting hammered on Friday in the aftermath of Waller’s comments which were interpreted by Timiraos as hawkish, gold once again rebounded and has managed to recover most of its losses as it trades just shy of its all time highs.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 16:10

Draghi Says Europe In Existential Danger Without Massive new Spending And Joint Debt; Germany Immediately Says “Nein”

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Draghi Says Europe In Existential Danger Without Massive new Spending And Joint Debt; Germany Immediately Says “Nein”

It has been a while since we were reminded that without the ECB’s constant (and endless) backstop, the Frankenstein monster that is the European (fiscal Dis)Union, is doomed. Well, this morning, former ECB President Mario Draghi reminded us of just that when he called on the EU to invest as much as €800 billion ($884 billion) extra a year and commit to the regular issuance of common bonds to make the bloc more competitive with China and the US.

In his long-awaited report on European Union competitiveness (link here), Draghi urged Europe to “develop its advanced technologies” (unclear what those are: maybe cultural appropriation from integrating 10 million Muslim immigrants in the past decade), create a plan to meet its climate targets and boost defense and security of critical raw materials, labeling the task “an existential challenge” because “if Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage. We will not be able to finance our social model. We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions.”

To achieve his proposed goal, Draghi said that Europe would need to boost investment by about 5 percentage points of the bloc’s GDP in order to transform its economy so that it can remain competitive.  Needless to say, this is not only unprecedented  – for comparison, the additional investments provided by the Marshall Plan between 1948-51 amounted to around 1-2% of GDP annually – it will simply not happen without a huge global crisis which will make the panicked reaction to the covid pandemic pale by comparison.

In short, Europe is cooked unless it unleashes the biggest spending spree in its history, surpassing even the post WWII Marshall Plan, one that would also require pretty much constant QE (to monetize all the newly issued debt) and send gold and crypto to unprecedented highs.

“For the first time since the Cold War we must genuinely fear for our self-preservation,” Draghi told reporters in Brussels Monday. “And the reason for a unified response has never been so compelling and I am confident that in our unity we will find the strength to reform.” And by “strength” he meant just the right crisis to greenlight what will be a record avalanche of spending and debt issuance.

Draghi’s report notes that EU economic growth has been persistently slower than in the US over the past two decades, driven by smaller advances in productivity. Germany has emerged as a particular weak spot as its industrial sector continues to struggle with high energy costs and a loss of competitiveness to China. GDP in the euro zone’s biggest economy is barely higher than before the pandemic.

Draghi also warned that EU economic growth was “persistently slower” than in the US, calling into question the bloc’s ability to digitalize and decarbonize the economy quickly enough to be able to rival its competitors to the east and west.

To be expected, implementing the report’s most ambitious proposals, such as more joint debt, would face significant push back from countries including Germany and the Netherlands, that are strongly opposed to deeper fiscal integration as it means Europe’s less advanced “southern” countries would be a drain on “northern” Europe’s hard work and resources… again  . What’s more, most of the largest EU countries are contending with difficult domestic political situations that could give them limited room to maneuver.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who tasked Draghi with delivering the report, will need to decide how much of his recommendations to pursue.

Yet her decision is already moot: the digital ink on the report was not dry yet and Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner already said nein, noting that “Joint EU borrowing will not solve the structural problems.”

The report comes as European leaders are increasingly aware of the loss of competitiveness against the bloc’s main rivals, US and China, partly due to Europe’s energy dependency (on Russia), lack of raw materials, and lack of a defense strategy (that does not rely entirely on the US). Meanwhile the EU continues to be hampered by the inability of its telecom and defense industries to harness economies of scale and be better prepared for a more nimble security stance.

As Bloomberg notes, the EU has also failed so far to push forward on a roadmap to lower the barriers of its capital markets to mobilize billions of euros across its borders needed to accelerate the development of clean technologies to meet its ambitious green targets or to create the next generation of technology champions.

Draghi also pitched a rewriting of the bloc’s competition policy rulebook so that more money can be pumped into Europe’s key industrial sectors, and pressed regulators to adopt a more creative approach to vetting mergers — which could lead to the approval of more high-profile deals. He called for the EU’s merger watchdogs to take into account the pro-innovative effects of certain deals, which could offset any negative risks to competition.

Draghi also gave a boon to the telecom sector, in pressing for greater consolidation across Europe to plug gaps in the bloc’s prized single market.

The consequences of the slow response to the challenges posed by American financial incentives for the green transition and China’s aggressive industrial plans, with billions of dollars invested in subsidies, are already felt in some of the key industries.

Volkswagen AG announced that it’s considering factory closures in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history.

“Europeans need to understand that defense is not an answer, it’s just a temporary answer,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, economist at Natixis, speaking to Guy Johnson and Kriti Gupta on Bloomberg TV. “We need to attack — meaning certainly not anything but compete on better terms, meaning more innovation. The single market has to be strengthened.”

Draghi also laid bare the challenges facing EU industry as it embarks on its mission to reach net zero by the middle of the century. Energy prices in the region are too high and are holding back investments, while the bloc’s climate goals are placing a heavy short-term burden on the highest-emitting sectors. China and the US do not face such obstacles, while the level of finance they provide to the sector dwarfs that of the EU.

Daring to call Europe’s green emperor completely naked, Draghi said that to make the energy transition an opportunity, Europe needs to sync all its policies with climate goals and come up with a joint plan for decarbonization and competitiveness that would span energy producers, clean tech and automotive sectors as well as energy-intensive companies where emissions are hard to abate.

That would cost trillions. No really: the four largest emission-intensive industries in the EU, such as chemicals and metals, will require €500 billion over the next 15 years in order to decarbonize, Draghi’s report said. On top of that, transport investment needs will amount to €100 billion every year between 2031 and 2050.

This, for a continent which can barely issue any new debt without ECB backstops.

Draghi drew on the automotive sector for particular scorn, calling it a “key example of a lack of EU planning.” The bloc faces a real risk that EU carmakers continue to lose market share to China, which has is ahead of the 27-member bloc in “virtually all domains,” while producing at a lower cost.

To address the growing digital innovation divide between the EU and the US and China, the report proposed reforming an agency to be modeled after the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which would finance breakthrough technologies and be managed by innovators rather than civil servants.

The European Investment Bank should also be allowed to co-invest in promising tech companies in order to encourage more venture capital to flow to businesses.

The report suggests common funding for defense R&D in a number of sectors such as drones, hypersonic missiles, directed-energy weapons, defense artificial intelligence and seabed and space warfare, but also the space sector. He also recommends ramping up collaborative procurement on defense equipment as well as favoring European companies, provided they are competitive.

The former Italian premier suggested that the EU could follow the model of Next Generation EU, the recovery fund financed by €800 billion in joint debt to overcome the consequences of the Covid pandemic. Alas, any time Germany heads “joint debt” it falls into anaphylactic shock and the proposal dies a quick and gruesome death.

Under current rules, the EU will cease additional net borrowing from 2026 when its pandemic-relief program expires. While there are discussions about additional issuance to fund items such as defense and climate, calls for permanent joint borrowing have been steadfastly opposed by the bloc’s economic powerhouse, Germany, which as noted above, has already said “nein.”

“If Europe cannot become more productive, we will be forced to choose. We will not be able to become, at once, a leader in new technologies, a beacon of climate responsibility and an independent player on the world stage,” Draghi wrote in the report. “We will have to scale back some, if not all, of our ambitions.”

Which Europe will do… until the next global crisis greenlights the opportunity to flood the market with trillions in new debt, allowing the Frankenstein monster that is Europe to kick the can for a few more years. The only question is after covid, what will “they” pull out of their hat to generate enough of a shock response (if you said war, you are right).

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 15:35

Kamala Harris Is Secluded In A Hotel With A Trump Impersonator

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Kamala Harris Is Secluded In A Hotel With A Trump Impersonator

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Fox News reporter Bryan Llenas revealed at the weekend that Kamala Harris’ campaign has got her in a hotel in Pittsburgh on a fake stage with a Trump impersonator, desperately practising for Tuesday’s debate.

“We know that Vice President Kamala Harris is in her hotel in Pittsburgh. They’ve got the lights as if it’s in a studio,” Llenas claimed, adding “They’ve got the stage. They’ve even brought in somebody who’s dressed and acting like the former President.”

This is almost exactly what they did with Biden before the debate that ultimately ended him.

They secluded him away for a week, trying to make his pudding brain function in order to take on Trump.

Now they face a whole different challenge of drilling Harris so she can function without cheat notes, something she hasn’t done since becoming the nominee, and without being able to goad Trump into soundbite traps because of the muted microphones rule that the Harris campaign failed to get changed.

The polls are once again showing Trump leading Harris in in the crucial states.

And overall.

There is no where left for Harris to hide.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 15:05

Israeli Strike On Alleged Syrian Chemical Weapons Facility Leaves High Death Toll

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Israeli Strike On Alleged Syrian Chemical Weapons Facility Leaves High Death Toll

A late Sunday night apparent Israeli aerial attack on Syria has left at least 18 people dead and 36 injured, Syrian state SANA news agency reported Monday. 

This marks the highest death toll in Syria from an Israeli strike since the Gaza war began last October. Several explosions were witnessed shortly before midnight on Sunday impacting the Tartous and Hama governorates, particularly in the area of the Masyaf countryside. Israeli strikes in this coastal vicinity is somewhat rare.

Image via Al Jazeera

The target appears to have been a secretive facility long eyed by the West as part of the Assad government’s chemical weapons program.

“About half an hour before midnight, multiple airstrikes targeted the Syrian Military Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) and several nearby buildings. I heard at least eight explosions, followed by the sound of ambulances,” a local resident who spoke to CNN described.

Some of the injured remain in critical condition, and the unusually high death toll suggests there may have been employees and staff inside the research center building when it was hit. 

Syrian Health Minister Hassan al-Ghabbash described the strikes as a “brutal and barbaric aggression” against a sovereign state.

In the aftermath of the strikes, large forest fires erupted along the nearby Wadi al-Uyun highway in Masyaf. Syrian media sources released the below photograph of fires raging in the area…

Image source: SANA

The Associated Press has cited a UK-based anti-Assad monitoring group to claim that Hezbollah operatives were among those killed in the attack:

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based war monitor, said 25 were killed, including at least five civilians, while the others included Syrian army soldiers and members of Hezbollah and other Iran-linked armed groups.

One strike targeted a scientific research center in Masyaf, and others struck sites where “Iranian militias and experts are stationed to develop weapons in Syria,” the observatory said. It said the research center was reportedly used for developing weapons, including short- and medium-range precision missiles and drones.

However, the reality is that these weapons program facilities have been targeted by Israel going back many years, in order to degrade the Syrian Army’s capabilities, also in the wake of Western allegations that Assad forces had deployed chemical weapons against ‘rebel’ strongholds.

However, Damascus has long rejected the accusations of Washington and its Western and Gulf allies, saying instead that West-backed jihadi insurgents have launched chemical weapons attacks and carried out mass atrocities.

At this moment, the region is still on edge bracing for a potential Iranian attack on Israel in response to recent major provocations. This fresh Israeli attack on Syria will certainly provoke Tehran and Damascus, and the escalation spiral might not be over.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 14:35

Dodgers Kowtow To Teachers Unions, Honor ‘Sisters Of Perpetual Indulgence’

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Dodgers Kowtow To Teachers Unions, Honor ‘Sisters Of Perpetual Indulgence’

Authored by Brenda Lebsack & Rebecca Friedrichs via RealClearPolitics,

The “Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence,” according to Catholic Vote, is “a vile anti-Catholic organization.” Their motto is “Go and sin some more” and they use the cross for pole dances. The group satirizes Catholic beliefs for the sake of activism. They mock Easter Sunday with a Hunky Jesus/Foxy Mary contest. According to the Catholic League, they hold “Midnight Confessional Contests” awarding the “hottest confessions.”

So it makes sense that Dodgers fans came unglued when they heard their team would be rewarding the anti-Catholic, anti-Christian group. The Dodgers withdrew their award in response to customer outrage and disinvited the “Sisters,” but the California Teachers Association stepped in and strong-armed the Dodgers into standing with perverts against the will of their paying customers. CTA’s May 2023 New Business Item states, “CTA shall release a public statement condemning the Dodgers’ recent decision to rescind the Community Hero Award for the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence.”

As veteran California teachers who’ve served within the unions and personally witnessed the radical agenda CTA imposes upon teachers, we find it suspicious that while the Dodgers are taking so much rightful heat for their June 16 celebration of the offensive “Sisters,” the CTA is getting away scot-free. CTA’s offensive intrusion into America’s national pastime and its endorsement of drag queens mocking nuns is scandalous. That’s why discerning Americans have had enough and are rising up in protest against teacher unions.

As Father Sebastian Walshe of St. Michael’s Abbey in the Diocese of Orange expresses, “The statement of the CTA should alarm every Catholic parent who sends their children to California public schools. No school should be a place where children are sexualized or taught anti-Catholic prejudice.”

The CTA rationalizes its stance with: “The Dodgers decision is rooted in the same bigotry that’s led to the LGBTQIA+ books being banned, drag shows being criminalized, and life-saving medical care being taken away from minors.” But this is a deceptive statement. Americans are pushing back on pornographic books, drag queen events, and sex transition surgeries on children because these things are destructive to children and an affront to families and American values.

Catholics are not the only Americans offended by the CTA’s endorsement. Jews, Muslims, Protestants and teachers like us are outraged as well.

Rabbi Dov Fischer, a senior congregational rabbi and law professor in California comments in his EdSource article, “The state’s school system, established to provide a safe learning climate for all students regardless of their ethnicity, race, language or religious affiliation, is now [thanks to unions] a social laboratory where students and families from devout faiths feel ostracized.”

Dr. Ahmed Soboh, the Chairman of the Islamic Shura Council of Southern California, an umbrella organization of 67 mosques throughout California, agreed with the rabbi: “Making fun of religious symbols or mocking religious figures should not be celebrated, especially by those who have the honorable job of educating our children.”

Most teachers would agree with the reasonable statements of Father Walshe, Rabbi Fischer, and Imam Soboh. However, the CTA does not represent the majority of teachers. CTA’s endorsement of the “Sisters” is offensive to most teachers, and it demonstrates the radical, out-of-touch views of CTA leadership.

Families of faith have good reason to be appalled since CTA – and its national arm NEA – misrepresent most teachers while controlling the trajectory of public education. Sahara Medrano, a dedicated veteran teacher and a minority representative of the California Teachers’ Union State Council, sees the red flags: “It’s becoming increasingly clear that a politically charged anti-Christian culture of religious intolerance is spreading throughout public school districts across our nation. If this trend continues, our public school system will break confidence with the religious community they are entrusted to serve. Students of faith are starting to boldly speak out saying they don’t feel safe in public schools.”

Teachers don’t feel safe either. And we have to ask, what does forcing the Dodgers into submission to a political agenda that harms children have to do with representing us as educators?

As public school teachers who’ve also served in Christian ministry for years, we commend Muslims, Jews, Catholics, and Protestants for collectively taking a stand for true religious tolerance, by standing against the religious intolerance of CTA. And we’re calling on teachers to join in protest too.

Let’s follow the lead of fed-up Americans who are using their enormous power of the purse to deliver a financial sting to the Dodgers and companies like Bud Light and Target who cave to pressure from special interest groups instead of serving their customers. Teachers can stop the power of the intolerant CTA by refusing to pay union dues, but we need your help educating teachers that they no longer have to pay unions as a condition of employment. If we help teachers empty the purses of union overlords, Americans can restore childhood innocence and freedom of speech and religion, and get back to enjoying baseball.

Brenda Lebsack is a veteran teacher, former school board member, and founder of Interfaith Statewide Coalition.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 14:05

Embattled Finance Firm B. Riley Looks To Raise Up To $410 Million From Asset Sales

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Embattled Finance Firm B. Riley Looks To Raise Up To $410 Million From Asset Sales

Distressed financial firm B. Riley is planning the sale of its majority stake in Great American Group to reduce its leverage and try to stabilize its embattled business, according to Bloomberg.

Shares were up almost 15% in early trade on the news before paring gains with the broader market.

The Los Angeles-based company is negotiating the sale and has a non-binding financing agreement for its B. Riley and bebe brands businesses.

These deals could raise $410 million, which B. Riley plans to use to reduce its debt with Nomura Holdings to $125 million by the end of 2024, according to Bloomberg. 

The company has been under relentless attack from short sellers for its business practices and is trying to manage $2 billion in debt, federal investigations into its financial reporting, and a substantial second-quarter loss. 

The firm is under investigation by the SEC regarding its asset disclosures and dealings with Brian Kahn, former CEO of Franchise Group Inc. Riley and Kahn have denied any wrongdoing, and B. Riley is cooperating with the SEC.

The firm was recently forced to cut its dividend to focus on debt reduction and aims to repay senior notes due in February 2025 through asset sales and cash on hand. B. Riley also expects to amend its credit agreement with Nomura.

Bloomberg reports that Chairman and Co-CEO Bryant Riley said the company is seizing the opportunity to monetize assets to accelerate debt repayment.

Previous reports have suggested Oaktree Capital is negotiating a stake in Great American, and B. Riley is discussing debt amendments with lenders.

Founder Bryant Riley has also made an informal offer to take the company private for $7 per share, and a special committee of independent directors is reviewing the proposal.

B. Riley is also dealing with a controversial $500 million loan arranged by Nomura, backed by assets now expected to be written down by up to $370 million. This includes a loan to Kahn secured by Franchise Group shares.

Nomura has faced pressure to reassess the loan’s value but has so far taken no action, Bloomberg wrote. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 13:40

Watch Live: Apple CEO Tim Cook Unveils iPhone 16

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Watch Live: Apple CEO Tim Cook Unveils iPhone 16

Watch the Live Launch Event

“It’s Glowtime” guys… 

*   *   * 

Apple will host a launch event, “It’s Glowtime,” at 10 am PT / 1 pm ET.

The world’s most valuable company, led by Tim Cook, is expected to debut new devices, including iPhone 16 models, smartwatches, and headphones, and reveal even more details about artificial intelligence software upgrades available on the latest devices. 

Goldman analysts, led by Michael Ng and Katherine Campagna, told clients what to anticipate before the major launch event. They begin by highlighting the key expected announcements for the iPhone 16:

iPhone 16: Size increases on Pro/Pro Max, WiFi 7 functionality, additional hardware & software initiatives, potential price increases on Pro/Pro Max

AAPL likely will announce the launch of 4 new iPhone 16 models: (1) iPhone 16 (6.1″); (2) iPhone 16 Plus (6.7″); (3) iPhone 16 Pro (6.3″ v. 6.1″ for iPhone 15 Pro); and (4) iPhone 16 Pro Max (6.9″ v. 6.7″ for iPhone 15 Pro Max). Given historical patterns of releasing new models the Friday of the week following an iPhone launch announcement, we expect the iPhone 16 series to become available on Friday, September 20th with preorders starting on Friday, September 13.

Press reports regarding price increases are mixed, with Techradar expecting prices to increase +$100 across all four models, with the base and Plus starting at $899 (v. $799 prior) and $999 (v. $899 prior), and Pro and Pro Max models at $1,099 (v. $999 prior) and $1,299 (v. $1,199 prior), respectively, while Forbes expects prices to remain unchanged from the iPhone 15 family of phones. However, similar to its 2023 price increase on the base model of the iPhone 15 Pro Max, where it raised entry prices by $100 ($1,099 to $1,199) by eliminating the 128 GB storage option, AAPL could possibly raise entry prices on the iPhone 16/Plus/Pro models by eliminating the 128 GB entry-level storage option. We note that the iPhone Pro has not seen a price increase since it was first introduced with the iPhone 11 Pro in September 2019. In our view, AAPL’s investments in iPhone hardware and across the Apple ecosystem (e.g., software, services) in recent years have provided consumers with additional value and should help warrant the price increases.

Modest form factor changes are expected, per Bloomberg. Press expectations for hardware updates include (1) display size increases for the iPhone Pro (6.3″ v. 6.1″ 15 Pro) and Pro Max (6.9″ v. 6.7″ 15 Pro Max); (2) the introduction of A18 chip series made with 3nm process which improves speed and power efficiency (3-nm chips previously only featured within the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max with A17 Pro chips); (3) the expansion of the Action button to all iPhone 16 models (v. 15 Pro/Pro Max only prior); and (4) improved camera features, with vertical lenses on 16/16 Plus models and a “Capture” button.

iPhone 16 to launch with iOS 18, which as outlined in our 2024 WWDC review, has updates centered around (1) personalization (e.g., rearrange apps/widgets on Homescreen; text effects and formatting in iMessages; Control Center customization options; Genmojis; customized fitness goals on watchOS; Smart Stack widget notifications on watch OS); (2) privacy (e.g., lock/hide apps; limited contact sharing; Passwords app); and (3) productivity (e.g. new Calculator app on iPad; iPhone Mirroring on macOS). Industry reports believe AI features likely will be a few weeks delayed from the iPhone 16’s launch and will launch as part of the iOS 18.1 update rather than the iOS 18 launch. iOS 18.1 will likely feature various AI functions previously announced as part of Apple Intelligence at WWDC in June 2024 including (1) improved Siri functionalities with contextual understanding, ability to interact via text, and a “glowing” appearance; (2) generative writing features including Writing Tools and Smart Replies; and (3) Photo innovations including improved Photo Library search functionality and the “Clean Up” editing feature.

A summary of those key expected iPhone 16 changes: 

Pricing expectations for the iPhone 16 models: 

The analysts pointed out that new iPhone debuts have not historically been a catalyst for outperformance or underperformance in the stock. 

They expect better carrier promotions for iPhone 16 could drive outperformance in sales. 

“Although we forecast iPhone revenue to decline 1% yoy in F2024, iPhone revenue should grow 9% yoy in F2025 and F2026,” they said. 

In a separate note last month, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the AI-enabled iPhone 16 will unleash Apple’s biggest upgrade cycle in history.

“AI is on the doorstep,” Ives said, adding, “Our recent Asia checks are giving us more confidence this upgrade cycle will unleash a long-awaited renaissance of growth for Cupertino over the next year.”

Ives said the next phase of the consumer AI revolution will involve developers and other tech firms integrating their AI models/tech into Apple Intelligence. 

“We expect developers over the next 6 to 12 months will build hundreds of generative AI-driven apps that will be key ingredients in the recipe for success for Apple as its technology stack creates the core building blocks of the consumer AI tidal wave we see coming starting with iPhone 16,” he added.

Here’s what Goldman expects for new Apple Watches…

And AirPods:

We expect AAPL to announce the 4th generation of AirPods. According to press reports, the 4th generation of AirPods will reportedly feature two models, with the higher priced model having Noise Cancellation functionality as well as a speaker in the case for location tracking. 4th Gen Airpods are expected to have USB-C charging ports.

Their thought on potential announcements for new iPad and iPad Mini: 

Several press reports expect the potential announcements of a new iPad and iPad Mini, rounding out the remaining iPad updates this year following the previously announced updates to the iPad Air and iPad Pro in May 2024. That said, the next iPad Mini will reportedly feature an OLED display, which could push the launch of the next-gen iPad Mini to 2026. Accordingly, we view the likelihood of new iPad announcements at this event – particularly that of the iPad Mini – as low. The last update to the iPad and iPad Mini were in October 2022 and September 2021, respectively.

Goldman analysts have a ‘Buy’ rating on Apple and a 12-month target price of $276 ($275 prior), reflecting 33X (unchanged) from their NTM+1Y EPS.

As of Monday morning, there is 26% upside to Goldman’s $276 PT. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/09/2024 – 13:15