Tech stocks recovered from the knee-jerk selling of Nvidia, which plunged as much as 8% after the company’s Q3 guidance disappointed some even as Q2 results met or beat analysts’ estimates on nearly every measure and showed that revenue more than doubled in the quarter, reinforcing the earnings power of artificial intelligence. As of 7:50am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.1% after sliding as much 1.4% earlier as Nvidia, which had tumbled sharply in trading after the close of US exchanges, trimmed losses to just down only 2% in pre-market trading. Intel Corp., Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. all posted small gains; S&P 500 futs rose 0.2%, fully reversing an earlier drop as Germany’s DAX Index hit a new record. Treasury 10-year yields and the dollar was steady. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $75 after sliding back under $74 yesterday.  On the macro calendar, we have the second 2Q GDP estimate, July trade balance and wholesale inventories and initial jobless claims (8:30am) and July pending home sales (10am).

In premarket trading, Nvidia fell 3%, reversing a much bigger plunge, after the company failed to live up to investor hopes with its latest results, delivering an underwhelming forecast and news of production snags with its much-awaited Blackwell chips. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Affirm Holdings soars 21% after the financial technology company’s 1Q revenue forecast came in ahead of estimates.
• Best Buy rises 6% after the company raised its annual profit guidance in a sign that demand for electronics and appliances could start to improve.
• Birkenstock falls 13% after the sandal maker reported 3Q revenue that just missed the average analyst estimate. Some analysts said expectations were high heading into results, with shares up about a third since its $1.5 billion initial public offering.
• Dollar General falls 23% after the company cut its full-year sales forecast, a sign that the discounter’s turnaround efforts may not be fending off competition.
• Five Below rises 6% after the discount retailer reported 2Q comparable sales that declined less than analysts had anticipated. While the company lowered its annual comparable sales forecast, the reduced outlook was also better than Wall Street expected.
• ILearningEngines sinks 42% after Hindenburg Research said it is short the stock.
• Nutanix gains 17% after the company gave a full-year revenue forecast that came in stronger than expected.
• Okta drops 13% after some of the application software company’s outlook disappointed.
• Salesforce rises 5% after the maker of customer management software reported 2Q results that beat expectations.
• Topgolf Callaway Brands declines 3% after Jefferies downgraded the golf equipment company to hold, saying it was “increasingly uncertain” about the company’s prospects, in particular its debt levels.

As extensively discussed yesterday, Nvidia’s Q3 earnings report, the most anticipated part of the tech industry’s earnings season, beat analysts’ estimates on nearly every measure, but Nvidia spoiled investors have grown accustomed to blowout quarters, and the latest numbers didn’t qualify especially as regards guidance which came in below some of the more optimistic estimates. NVDA revenue more than doubled to $30 billion in the fiscal second quarter, and the company said third-quarter revenue will be about $32.5 billion; while analysts had predicted $31.9 billion on average, estimates ranged as high as $37.9 billion. Of concern to investors was the fact that Nvidia’s next big cash cow — the new Blackwell processor lineup — has proved more challenging to manufacture than anticipated. The product is the next generation of the company’s dominant artificial intelligence processor.

“Fundamentally, market participants are reflecting on those Nvidia results and saying: they were actually pretty good,” said Michael Brown, a senior strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The bar for a beat was impossibly high, so the results don’t derail the bull case for the chipmakers or the equity market more broadly.”

In any case, with Q2 earnings season officially at an end, focus is turning back to the macro landscape. Money markets are wagering on 100 basis points worth of rate cuts by year-end but uncertainty remains as to whether the Federal Reserve will ease policy by a quarter-point next month or deliver a larger 50 basis-point cut. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said it “may be time to cut,” but he’s still looking for additional data to support lowering rates next month. Key to that will be a reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE, due Friday.

“What investors are looking for now is further confirmation that if economic momentum is weakening, the Federal Reserve are going to ride to the rescue and provide a series of substantial cuts,” said Brian O’Reilly, head of market strategy at Mediolanum International Funds.

European stocks gain as traders added to their ECB interest-rate cut bets after soft inflation data from Spain and Germany which reinforced expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut in September. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.8% to the highest since mid July while Germany’s DAX gained as much as 0.7%, reaching 18,912.47 points and topping its previous peak of May 15. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Pernod Ricard shares extend gains to as much as 9.7%, the biggest advance in almost 16 years, after China said it won’t take any anti-dumping measures over EU brandy for the time being. The stock extended gains that were initially fueled by relief over the French distiller’s in line results. Peers Diageo, Remy Cointreau and Campari also jump.
• Delivery Hero shares rise as much as 9% in early trading, to their highest intraday value two months, after the German online food service’s second quarter results showed strength in the Middle East and North Africa region and as the firm said it was planning a Dubai initial public offering of its Talabat operations.
• Universal Music shares rise as much as 4.2% after BNP Paribas Exane raised its recommendation on the music company to outperform from neutral. The broker says streaming expectations are now “materially reset” which offers an “attractive entry point.”
• Schott Pharma shares jump as much as 12%, the most on record, after the German healthcare supplier increased its revenue forecast for the year following strong third-quarter results.
• Close Brothers jumps as much as 11%, the most since March, after RBC upgraded its recommendation on the UK financial services group to outperform from sector perform. The broker says the firm’s shares are cheap historically as well as compared to sector peers.
• DEME Group shares rise as much as 6.2% after the marine engineering provider reported turnover for the half-year that beat estimates. KBC upgraded its its recommendation on the stock, citing a higher sales growth outlook.
• Corbion shares rise as much as 5.3% after the Dutch ingredients firm is upgraded to overweight at Barclays, which sees improving growth prospects and reduced balance-sheet risk prompting a rerating.
• Teleperformance falls as much as 6.2%, after the French digital business services company’s CEO told French paper Les Echos the company is considering listing its stock in the US, frustrated by its stock performance in Paris.
• CD Projekt drops as much as 4.4% after the video game maker’s revenues development disappointed analysts. Ipopema appreciated the update to the Polish game developer’s key asset Project Polaris, a codename for the new The Witcher game, and hopes to see a game trailer by the end of 2024.
• IG Group shares fall as much as 2.6% in London after holders Tom Sosnoff and Scott Sheridan sold 6.5m shares in an offering to a limited number of institutional investors.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as tech shares declined in the wake of Nvidia Corp.’s disappointing forecast, while Chinese shares were mixed amid earnings misses. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6% before paring, with TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix among the biggest drags. Asian chip shares declined as Nvidia’s less-than-outstanding outlook cooled investor sentiment on the artificial intelligence trade. Benchmarks in Taiwan and South Korea led declines in the region. “Nvidia had a good result yet share price was down on the back of big expectations for next year,” said Jun Bei Liu, a portfolio manager at Sydney-based Tribeca Investment Partners. The cooling-off in the shares after their strong performance this year “provides buying opportunities as long-term structural growth remains intact.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slips 0.1% drop ahead of US GDP data and weekly jobless claims data; risk-sensitive currencies including the New Zealand and Australian dollars lead gains. the euro underperforms its G-10 rivals, falling 0.2% against the greenback after softer than expected inflation prints out of Germany and Spain. EUR/USD drops as much as 0.4% to 1.1072, lowest since Aug. 20 and set for its worst two-day run in more than two months. One-week risk reversals now at 12 basis points, versus Wednesday’s high at 58 basis points. The kiwi dollar is the best performer, rising 0.6% after New Zealand business confidence hit a 10-year high. The offshore yuan climbs 0.6%.

Treasuries are marginally richer across the curve following another narrow overnight trading range, keeping most yields within 1bp of Wednesday’s closing levels. US 10-year trades around 3.83% with bunds in the sector outperforming slightly while gilts keep pace. Most of the price action occurred during European morning as the German curve bull-steepened Core European rates outperform led by German front-end, where 2-year yields are lower by around 4bp on the day following domestic inflation data; German 10-year yields falling 2bps to 2.24%. This week’s Treasury coupon auction cycle concludes with $44b 7-year note sale at 1pm, following good demand for 2- and 5-year notes. WI 7-year yield near 3.73% is ~43bp richer than last month’s result and, like the earlier sales, lower than results over the past year at least

In commodities, oil prices declined, with WTI rising 1% to $75 a barrel. Spot gold rises $16 to around $2,520/oz.

Looking at today’s US data calendar, we have the second 2Q GDP estimate, July trade balance and wholesale inventories and initial jobless claims (8:30am) and July pending home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Bostic at 3:30pm.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,609.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 522.95
• MXAP down 0.2% to 185.56
• MXAPJ down 0.3% to 573.39
• Nikkei little changed at 38,362.53
• Topix little changed at 2,693.02
• Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 17,786.32
• Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 2,823.11
• Sensex little changed at 81,714.16
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 8,045.13
• Kospi down 1.0% to 2,662.28
• German 10Y yield down 3.3 bps at 2.23%
• Euro down 0.3% to $1.1084
• Brent Futures down 0.5% to $78.23/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,517.04
• US Dollar Index up 0.18% to 101.28

Top Overnight News

• AAPL has started mass producing the new iPhone lineup in India, including the Pro model, just days after commencing the process in China. Nikkei
• China growth doubts grow as local government debt issuance falls behind schedule amid a clamp down on inefficient infrastructure investment. China’s sluggish economic performance is creating a problem for the world as the company floods the globe with goods its companies can’t sell domestically. RTRS / WSJ
• China aims to clamp down on the recent iron ore rally, saying it doesn’t have any fundamental basis. BBG
• China accuses European brandy makers of dumping, but declines to impose tariffs (for now) in a step that should help cool trade tensions between Brussels and Beijing. BBG
• Spanish inflation eased to its lowest level in a year — a retreat that’s likely to be mirrored across the euro zone, allowing the European Central Bank to continue lowering interest rates. Consumer prices advanced 2.4% from a year ago, according to data published Thursday by the national statistics agency. That’s less than the 2.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. BBG
• The Fed’s Raphael Bostic said it “may be time” to cut interest rates but he’s still looking for additional data to support a move next month. “I don’t want us to be in a situation where we cut and then we have to raise rates again,” he said. BBG
• Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by one point in Arizona and by two points in Georgia and Nevada, according to a Fox News poll. Trump is ahead by one point in North Carolina. The margin of sampling error for each state is 3 ppts. Tonight, Harris and Tim Walz will have their first campaign interview, with CNN. BBG
• GOOGL is relaunching its Gemini AI tool used to create images of people after pulling it from the market in Feb following criticism. CNBC

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly with modest losses following the weak lead from Wall Street and in the aftermath of NVIDIA’s ill-received earnings. The tech sector was among the laggards in the region with Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Tokyo Electron (8035 JT), and TSMC (2330 TT) all opening lower by 2-3%. ASX 200 was subdued amid the broader market mood and with Australia’s earnings season picking up in pace. Materials, energy and Tech resided as some of the lagging sectors. Nikkei 225 briefly dipped under USD 38k in early trade, with Japanese activity also affected by the approaching Typhoon Shanshan, although the index eventually eked mild gains amid gains in Industrial names. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both conformed to the APAC mood and later extended their losses, whilst earnings season in Hong Kong saw Meituan jump almost 10% while Li Autos slid 10.6%.

Top Asian News

• PBoC injected CNY 150.9bln via 7-day Reverse Repo at a maintained rate of 1.70%.
• South Korean President Yoon said the government will introduce an automatic stabilization tool for the long-term sustainability of pension fund and is to raise the basic monthly pension by KRW 400k within his term, according to Reuters.
• PBoC will step up counter-cyclical adjustments; will strengthen financial support to the real economy

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.5%) began the session with a modest upward bias. As the session progressed, indices continued to edge higher, but most notably in the Euro Stoxx 50 (+0.9%) and AEX (+0.9%), with Tech leading, despite NVIDIA (-2.8% pre-market) slipping post-earnings (albeit. metrics were strong). European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Tech is the clear outperformer, propped up by gains in the ASM International (+2.4%) and ASML (+2%), benefiting from strong NVIDIA results, despite the Co. itself being down by around 2.8% in the pre-market. Alcohol names shot higher following an announcement that China’s Commerce Ministry will not impose provisional anti-dumping subsidy on brandy imported from the EU; Pernod Ricard (+4.5%) / Remy Cointreau (+7.6%). US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1% RTY +0.6%) are flat/mixed, with very slight outperformance in the RTY, whilst the NQ fails to find a firm direction, following NVIDIA’s results on Wednesday.

Top European News

• Riksbank’s Bunge foresees two or three further rate cuts this year, monetary policy should still be characterised by a gradual adjustment.
• China’s Commerce Ministry says it will not impose provisional anti-dumping subsidy on brandy imported from the EU.

FX

• DXY is extending the upside seen on Wednesday’s session after basing out at 100.51 on Tuesday. DXY has printed a 101.36 peak with the pre-Powell high at 101.55 coming into view.
• EUR/USD is pressured and back on a 1.10 handle after regional German CPI metrics came in softer than suggested by expectations for the mainland data. German CPI due at 13:00BST ahead of the EZ-wide data on Friday.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD with UK-specific updates once again on the light side. Cable has returned to a 1.31 handle after printing a fresh YTD peak earlier in the week at 1.3266.
• USD/JPY is flat in quiet newsflow and opting to consolidate on a 144.00 handle and within yesterday’s 143.69-145.04 range.
• NZD is the best performer across the majors after ANZ data showed NZ business confidence soaring. AUD is also firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent due to pressure in the AUD/NZD cross, though AUD/USD is within reach of the YTD peak.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1299 vs exp. 7.1297 (prev. 7.1216)

Commodities

• Crude is slightly softer, but with specifics light and the complex essentially in a holding pattern until there is an update to the geopolitical and/or Libya front. Brent’Oct currently near session lows at around USD 78.30/bbl, weighed on by EUR-driven USD strength.
• Spot gold is firmer and relatively unreactive to the referenced uptick in the USD as pressure in yields globally are serving as a countering impulse for the yellow metal. At the top-end of a relatively wide USD 2503-2521/oz band.
• Base metals are broadly on the backfoot, largely in continuation of the broader negative sentiment seen in APAC trade overnight.
• South32 (S32 AT) expects to see improvement in aluminium prices on USD weakness and China buying, according to Reuters.
• Russian gov’t has announced that fuel and oil production numbers are to be a state secret, via KyivPost.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Aug. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 232,000, prior 232,000
  • Aug. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.86m
• 08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
  • 2Q Personal Consumption, est. 2.2%, prior 2.3%
  • 2Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
  • 2Q GDP Price Index, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%
• 08:30: July Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$97.8b, prior -$96.8b, revised -$96.6b
• 08:30: July Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
  • July Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00: July Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 0.2%, prior 4.8%
  • July Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -2.0%, prior -7.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, the main market focus is on Nvidia’s latest results, which came out after the US close last night. Although the results slightly beat expectations, their share price was down around -7% in after-hours trading, partly because it fell short of some estimates that had been looking for an even stronger release. For instance, the revenue outperformance was the smallest relative to expectations in six quarters, so this wasn’t the sort of massive beat that Nvidia has often reported over the last 18 months. At the same time, the Q3 revenue guidance came in a touch above the average estimate ($32.5bn vs $31.9bn est.) but still well within the range of analysts’ views. So there’s been a pullback overnight, and that decline in after-hours trading has built on the -2.10% decline in yesterday’s session. In turn, US equity futures are lower more broadly this morning, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.33%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.64%) both falling back.

That more negative tone has also been evident overnight, with many of the major indices losing ground in Asia. That includes losses for the KOSPI (-0.81%), the Hang Seng (-0.65%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.45%), alongside smaller declines for the CSI 300 (-0.07%) and the Nikkei (-0.06%).

Ahead of Nvidia’s release, US markets had already lost ground yesterday, with the S&P 500 filling -0.60%, though it did partially recover from a -1.1% fall intra-day. The decline came primarily because of losses among tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 (-1.19%) falling back for a third consecutive day, whilst the NASDAQ also fell -1.12% to a two-week low. Sentiment around tech wasn’t helped by a -19.02% drop for Super Micro Computer, which saw the largest decline in the S&P 500 yesterday after they said they’d delay filing their annual financial disclosures. And the pick up in volatility ahead of Nvidia’s results also saw the VIX index rise +1.68pts to 17.11, its largest daily increase since the market turmoil on August 5.

To be fair, there were some relatively brighter spots, with more than 40% of the S&P 500 constituents higher on the day, while the Dow Jones (-0.39%) saw a more modest decline, having initially been on track to close at a new all-time high. It was a strong day for banks as well, with those in the S&P 500 up +0.70%. And in other news, Berkshire Hathaway (+0.86%) became the first US company that’s not in the tech sector to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalisation.

Whilst equities were losing ground, US Treasuries put in a pretty subdued performance, with the main theme being an ongoing curve steepening. While there was little data or commentary from Fed officials, the 2yr yield still fell by -3.4bps to 3.87%, its lowest closing level since May 2023. By contrast, the 10yr yield was up +1.3bps to 3.84% and the 2s10s slope ended the session at -3.4bps, only a basis point from its 2-year high on August 7. Meanwhile, we got more indication that the prospect of rate cuts was filtering through to the real economy. Specifically, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the contract rate on a 30yr mortgage was down to 6.44%, the lowest since April 2023. Bear in mind that investors are still pricing in rapid rate cuts over the months ahead, with over 100bps priced in by the December meeting. This pricing was little changed despite somewhat hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed’s Bostic later on, who said that it “may be time” to cut but that he still wanted to see additional data to support a September cut.

Today, we should start to get some more data that will help to shape investors’ views. In particular, there’s the weekly initial jobless claims out of the US, which will offer a timely indicator on the state of the labour market. We’ll also get the second estimate of Q2 GDP, and although that’s a backward-looking reading, that will include the latest revisions to core PCE inflation in Q2. Any revisions to that would add to the uncertainty when it comes to tomorrow’s core PCE print for July, so that could have implications for the 25bps vs 50bps debate depending how that looks. As of this morning, futures are placing a 35% probability on a 50bp rate cut in September, so the view remains that 25 is more likely. But it’s far from a done deal, and we’ve still got both the jobs report and CPI release for August before that meeting, so plenty of time for that to shift around still.

Over in Europe, markets put in a more robust performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.33%) closing in on its all-time high, ending the day just -0.78% beneath its record from May. Germany’s DAX (+0.54%) was even closer to its own record, with yesterday’s advance leaving it just -0.46% beneath its peak. That optimism was also echoed among sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.0bps), OATs (-2.8bps) and BTPs (-2.1bps) all moving lower.

Europe will stay in focus today, as we’ll start to get the flash HICP prints for August, including Germany and Spain today, ahead of the Euro Area release tomorrow. Those will be important for the ECB, as even though a September cut is widely expected, markets have been pricing around a 50% chance of a second cut at the subsequent meeting in October. So the release could influence whether they cut at a quarterly pace (having already delivered an initial cut in June), or whether they speed that up and start cutting every meeting. In a mini series of notes this week, our European economists examine the factors that will determine both how far (see here) and how fast (see here) the ECB is likely to cut. When it comes to upcoming inflation data, our economists expect the Euro Area headline to slow to +2.2% in August, which would be the weakest since July 2021, with core HICP also coming down to +2.8%.

There was very little other data yesterday, although the Euro Area M3 money supply grew by +2.3% year-on-year in July (vs. +2.7% expected). Otherwise, French consumer confidence ticked up to 92 in August as expected, which is its highest level since February 2022.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German and Spanish CPI prints for August. In the US, we’ll also get the second estimate of Q2 GDP, the weekly initial jobless claims, and pending home sales for July. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lane and Nagel, as well as the Fed’s Bostic.

As New York City and the MTA devises their next plan to tax or hike prices on everything from owning a vehicle to ‘congestion’ to having a driver’s license to living within 10 miles of the Lincoln Tunnel, we have a thought: maybe just focus on collecting fares from existing riders…

We know it’s controversial, but in the wake of a new New York Times report claiming that 48% of MTA Bus riders fail to pay fares, we can’t help but ask.

The Times reports that before the pandemic, about 20% of bus riders didn’t pay, but this has worsened recently.

Despite this, officials have mainly focused on the subway, deploying police and security to enforce fares, while bus fare evasion remains much higher. In early 2024, nearly half of bus riders evaded fares, compared to 14% on the subway, even though subway ridership is twice as high.

The evasion has cost the MTA “startling” losses—$315 million from bus riders and $285 million from subway riders in 2022, according to a 2023 report.

David R. Jones, an MTA board member and the chief executive of the Community Service Society said: “In the public’s mind, they don’t see the bus system as the real source of fare evasion. We have to get people to recognize that this is no longer acceptable.”

Drivers are increasingly afraid to collect fares due to violent, the report says. Bus driver Robert Freeman said: “First and foremost, I avoid all confrontation. Me, I just concentrate on driving, and I don’t say nothing.”

The NYPD commented:  “New Yorkers have come to expect and rightfully deserve to use the city’s mass transit system without being subjected to acts of lawlessness.”

Some paying riders resent free riders, while advocates for low-income residents fear stricter enforcement will disproportionately impact vulnerable people. The bus system, which serves many older and poorer individuals, has become a focal point in this debate, the Times reported. 

The MTAs ongoing struggle with fare evasion has sparked discussions about whether mass transit should be free, funded by taxes like public services. Assemblyman Zohran K. Mamdani, a Democrat, recently supported a bill for free rides on select bus routes, arguing that New Yorkers cannot afford the current costs.

But the MTA urgently needs fare revenue, facing a projected $1 billion deficit by 2028 due to higher-than-expected fare evasion. Before the pandemic, fares accounted for about 42% of the MTA’s revenue.

The situation worsened when Governor Kathy Hochul canceled a planned congestion pricing program, costing the MTA $15 billion in potential funding.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

In the wake of three fatal stabbings by a Syrian immigrant whose asylum was denied, the anti-immigration AfD may win three state elections in September.

Knife Attack

NPR reports Man claiming to be behind Solingen knife attack turns himself in, German police say.

A 26-year-old Syrian asylum-seeker turned himself in to police, saying he was responsible for the Solingen knife attack that left three dead and eight wounded at a festival marking the city’s 650th anniversary, German authorities announced early Sunday.

On Saturday the Islamic State militant group claimed responsibility for the attack, without providing evidence. The extremist group said on its news site that the attacker targeted Christians and that he carried out the assaults Friday night “to avenge Muslims in Palestine and everywhere.” The claim couldn’t be independently verified.

The attack comes amid debate over immigration ahead of regional elections next Sunday in Germany’s Saxony and Thueringia regions where anti-immigration parties such as the populist Alternative for Germany are expected to do well. 

According to Reuters, Thuringia and Saxony vote on Sept. 1 and Brandenburg follows on Sept. 22. Combined, the three states have around 8.5 million inhabitants and account for 10% of Germany’s population.

The far-right AfD is expected to emerge as the strongest party in these elections. It may be difficult or impossible for an anti-AfD coalition to suppress AfD.

AfD Crowds Cheer Nation’s Most Feared Politician

The Guardian reports AfD Crowds Cheer Nation’s Most Feared Politician

Three eastern German states hold elections next month and, by a quirk of the calendar, the regions up for grabs are among those with the most supporters of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland. If the polls are accurate, the AfD could wind up the strongest party in all three, a year before the planned date of Germany’s next general election. Depending on who you ask, it would be a political earthquake, a catastrophe or a wake-up call for the country.

The strength of the AfD and a new populist upstart, the “leftwing conservative” Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance), underlines dovetailing trends in Europe’s top economy: mounting frustration with incumbents, anxiety about Germany’s military support for Ukraine and festering divisions between east and west more than three decades after reunification.

Höcke, 52, co-heads the state chapter of the AfD in Thuringia, which will vote on 1 September along with Saxony. The AfD, polling at about 30%, has been classed as “confirmed rightwing extremist” by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the domestic security watchdog, in both states. Brandenburg, the largely rural state surrounding Berlin, will hold its election on 22 September. Its AfD chapter is listed as “suspected rightwing extremist”.

Government Future in Danger

DW reports German Government’s Future in Danger in Regional Elections

Though eastern Germany is often seen as a homogenous region, there are major political differences among the states. While Thuringia has been governed for the last decade by the socialist Left Party under State Premier Bodo Ramelow, Saxony has been led by Michael Kretschmer of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) since 2017.

In both states, the only possible coalitions that keep the AfD out of government (and all the other parties have promised to do that) appear to be an uncomfortable alliance between the CDU and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). It would be bizarre partnership: The former is a centrist party that likes to present itself as a rock of stability, tradition, and conservatism, the latter an upstart outfit less than a year old run by a former communist with a gift for populist rhetoric.

“Sahra Wagenknecht is a cult figure in eastern Germany. She leads the party autocratically, and she is a focus of the yearning for authority and leadership in the east,” as Vorländer puts it.

An alliance with the BSW, which is polling at nearly 20% in Thuringia and over 10% in Saxony, is likely to be difficult to digest for some in the CDU. Apart from the fact that Wagenknecht was once a member of the Socialist Unity Party of Germany (SED) in the communist East German dictatorship, she is already making demands that will be difficult for the CDU to accept. For instance, that it should declare itself against the stationing of US medium-range ballistic missiles in Germany.

And though the BSW has consistently distanced itself from the far-right AfD and ruled out any cooperation, one fact looms uncomfortably over this election: The two parties have more in common than sets them apart.

All this leaves Scholz’s SPD in a desperate situation, especially because another eastern German state, Brandenburg, will hold an election three weeks later. Here, too, the AfD is leading the polls, with the SPD and CDU vying for second place.

Yet in some ways, it is Scholz’s coalition partners that have the most to fear from these three elections. The Green Party, currently in government in all three states, is likely to lose that influence, while the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) are facing annihilation in the East — probably as punishment for hitching their wagon to the Scholz train. That does not bode well for Scholz’s already fractious coalition.

SPD on the Brink of Extinction

SPD is hovering around 5 percent in opinion polls in both Saxony and Thuringia.

That is the threshold to have any representation in Government.

Saxony Polls

Die Linke (the Left), the Greens, SPD, and FDP are all on the 5 percent boot threshold.

They all deserve the boot. But that does not imply cheering for any of them.

Thuringia Polls

Die Linke is much stronger in Thuringia than Saxony.

Brandenburg Polls

Be prepared to kiss FDP goodbye in a clean sweep.

The Greens appear to go up in flames in Thuringia and hopefully across the board.

The more parties that get booted, the harder it will be to form any coalitions.

It will be impossible to exclude both AfD and BSW. Both are anti-immigration, pro-Russia.

National Elections

The next national election has been set for Sept. 28, 2025.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he will run for a second term, but support for his SPD party has collapsed.

The famed traffic light coalition is unworkable with combined support down to 48.5 percent with FDP on the bubble. FDP deserves to get booted for agreeing to join the current coalition mess.

Anyone for another failed “Grand Coalition” between CDU/CSU and SPD?

In a sharp escalation of Italy’s ongoing crackdown on illegal migration across the Mediterranean, the government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has impounded a humanitarian rescue ship for the 23rd time. The vessel, Geo Barents, operated by the international medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), was detained in the port of Salerno this week following its rescue of 191 migrants.

The 60-day detention order, issued on Monday night, is one of the most severe actions taken in an 18-month campaign against humanitarian groups operating in the Mediterranean. Italian authorities accused Geo Barents of endangering lives and failing to provide timely information during a night-time rescue last Friday, when the crew intervened to save migrants from a small fiberglass boat that was being approached by a Libyan coastguard vessel, FT reports.

MSF, however, has rejected these accusations, stating that their crew had “no choice” but to carry out the rescue after witnessing a significant number of people falling—or being pushed—overboard. The charity has labeled the Italian government’s decision as “arbitrary and inhumane.”

The impoundment is in-line with Meloni’s vow to curb irregular migration – a key promise of her administration, which has led to a sharp decrease in migrant arrivals—just over 39,500 this year, compared to 112,500 in the same period last year.

NGOs Protest…

The groups ferrying in illegals – including MSF, Oxfam Italia, and SOS Humanity – have decried the measures as a “systematic obstruction of civilian search and rescue activities,” which they say are now taking a toll in human lives. The groups filed formal complaints with the European Commission over a year ago, questioning whether Italy’s regulations comply with EU and international law. Brussels is still evaluating the matter.

“They are selling this to public opinion as success, but the price is death and very severe human rights violations,” said Juan Matias Gil, who leads MSF’s Mediterranean search and rescue operations.

Of course, globalist leaders have denounced the measures – including Pope Francis. In a strong rebuke during his weekly audience on Wednesday, the pontiff slammed the refusal of aid to migrants crossing the Mediterranean as a “grave sin.”

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has noted that while irregular arrivals to Italy have decreased, the number of shipwrecks and drownings has not seen a corresponding decline. The IOM estimates that at least 1,027 migrants have died or gone missing in the central Mediterranean this year, making the crossing more perilous than ever.

Furthermore, 13,763 migrants intercepted at sea have been returned to Libya, where they often face imprisonment and abuse, according to the IOM.

Maybe if they weren’t promised a government-funded life abroad they wouldn’t have attempted the crossing?

Right after Meloni took office in late 2022, her government implemented strict new rules to limit the ability of humanitarian groups to rescue migrants. These include warnings that vessels failing to comply with the protocols will be impounded—a threat that has been repeatedly realized. Ten search and rescue boats have been detained by Italian authorities, some more than once, resulting in a cumulative loss of 480 days at sea for rescue operations this year alone, according to SOS Humanity.

The impounding of Geo Barents marks the vessel’s third detention, and MSF has vowed to challenge the “unlawful detention” in court. However, such cases are often not heard until long after the boats have been released, effectively undermining the legal process.

“The government knows very well that the speed of justice is much slower than the administrative measure,” said Gil. “We are losing money . . . and all that time we are locked in port is never coming back.”

Meanwhile, other rescue vessels, like the MV Louise Michel—funded by the artist Banksy—continue their operations under increasing pressure. After being released from a 20-day detention on August 7, the crew of the Louise Michel reported rescuing 229 people from seven boats in distress in the Mediterranean just this week.

As the Meloni government tightens its grip on the Mediterranean, the future of humanitarian rescue missions in the region remains fraught with uncertainty, and the human cost of this geopolitical struggle continues to rise.

Authored by Ross Pomeroy via RealClearScience,

At the dawn of the millennium, Germany launched an ambitious plan to transition to renewable energy. “Die Energiewende” initiated a massive expansion of solar and wind power, resulting in a commendable 25 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2022 compared to 2002.  

But while Energiewende slashed pollution through building out renewable energy sources, it also phased out Germany’s fleet of safe, carbon-free nuclear power plants, a longtime goal of environmental activists afraid of nuclear’s salient – but in actuality small – dangers. The result, according to a new analysis recently published to the International Journal of Sustainable Energy, has been a boondoggle for consumers and for the environment. 

In 2002, nuclear power supplied about a fifth of Germany’s electricity. Twenty-one years later, it supplied none. A layperson might think that cheap wind and solar could simply fill the gap, but it isn’t so simple. Once up and running, nuclear reactors provide reliable, affordable “baseload” power – electricity that’s available all the time. Ephemeral renewables simply can’t match nuclear’s consistency. And since an advanced economy like Germany’s requires a 100 percent reliable power grid, fossil fuel power plants burning coal and natural gas were brought online to pick up wind and solar’s slack.  

The net result of German politicians’ shortsightedness in phasing out nuclear power is a vastly pricier grid. The new analysis shows that if Germans simply maintained their 2002 fleet of reactors through 2022, they could have saved themselves roughly $600 billion Euros. Why so much? Well, in addition to their construction costs, renewables required expensive grid upgrades and subsidies. Moreover, in this hypothetical scenario where nuclear remained, Germany enjoyed nearly identical reductions in carbon emissions.  

Jan Emblemsvåg, a Professor of Civil Engineering at Norway’s NTNU and the architect of the analysis, imagined another scenario out of curiosity. What if the Germans had taken the money spent on expanding renewables and instead used it to construct new nuclear capacity? According to his calculations, they could have slashed carbon emissions a further 73% on top of their cuts in 2022, while simultaneously enjoying a savings of 330 billion Euros compared to the massive costs of Energiewende.  

Policymakers in other countries looking to decarbonize their grids should take note.

In recent years Saudi Arabia and Israel have been moving remarkably fast toward the restoration of official relations, in what’s been called a highly anticipated ‘deal of the century’ – but the Gaza war in the wake of Oct.7 have put these efforts on hold and looks to derail the initiative altogether.

This week tensions have escalated, given that Muslims see current Israeli policies toward Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem as very seriously threatening and an affront to their faith. Israel’s hard-line Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir this week went to so far as to call for a synagogue to be built atop Islam’s third holiest site.

The remarks came during a Monday interview with Army Radio and immediately unleashed controversy, with some Israeli groups even condemning the remarks as needlessly inflammatory and unrealistic.

Ben-Gvir during the interview said that Jews should be allow unrestricted access to pray at the site of the Al-Aqsa mosque, which is situation upon what’s called Temple Mount and the Western Wall, a sacred site for the Jews.

Any establishment of a synagogue or new (third) temple on the site would require the destruction of the Al Aqsa Mosque, possibly leading to Islamic uprisings in the region so large it could trigger broader war.

According to Ben-Gvir’s words in the public broadcast interview: 

“If I could do anything I wanted, I would put an Israeli flag on the site,” Ben-Gvir said in the interview.

Asked several times by a journalist if he would build a synagogue at the site if it were up to him, Ben-Gvir finally replied: “Yes.”

Saudi Arabia was quick to condemn the “extremist” words. “The kingdom affirms its categorical rejection of these extremist and inflammatory statements and its rejection of the continuous provocations of the feelings of Muslims around the world,” an official statement reads.

It added, “The kingdom stresses the need to respect the historical and legal status quo of the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque, renewing its call to the international community to fulfill its responsibilities in putting an end to the humanitarian disaster that the brotherly Palestinian people are enduring and to initiate serious mechanisms to hold Israeli officials accountable for the ongoing violations of international laws, norms, and resolutions.”

Other governments in the region, especially Turkey, also condemned the Israeli national security minister’s remarks:

Türkiye condemns Ben-Gvir’s call to build synagogue inside Al-Aqsa Mosque

Türkiye has strongly condemned Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s recent remarks about building a synagogue within the Al Aqsa Mosque compound, calling it a “new and extremely dangerous”… pic.twitter.com/u8Ld7JCayV

— The SETA Foundation at Washington DC (@SETADC) August 28, 2024

The Saudi kingdom oversees the two holiest sites in Islam of Mecca and Medina, and hosts annual Haj (pilgrimage) events, and so Riyadh often serves the role of a global spokesman for broader Islamic issues.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The Associated Press reported that “Ukraine counts on new long-range weapon to bypass Western restrictions and hit deep into Russia” after Zelensky announced the “Palianytsia” during Ukraine’s 33rd Independence Day celebrations on Saturday.

Defense Minister Umerov was also quoted as writing on Facebook that “This once again proves that for victory, we need long-range capabilities and the lifting of restrictions on strikes on the enemy’s military facilities.”

Palianytsia’s range is equivalent to the ATACMS’.

Therein lies the reason behind the media hype over this new weapon.

Although Kiev claims that it was an entirely indigenous creation, it’s difficult to believe that NATO countries didn’t contribute to it. More than likely, Western military-technical specialists participated in its production, though this might have been done without their political leadership being aware. The goal appears to have been to pressure them into lifting restrictions by Ukraine on the use of their weapons after this fait accompli.

Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li strongly implied as much after he warned earlier this week that Western “super hawks” and members of the military-industrial complex are behind the push for letting Ukraine use their weapons to hit deep inside of Russian territory. About that scenario, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also chimed in and accused Zelensky of “blackmailing” the West, which he said would amount to “playing with fire” if they end up going through with it.

The US still doesn’t let Ukraine strike targets deep inside of Russia, even though the precedent is for it to always give Kiev whatever it demands after some time. This delay is attributable both to a desire to control escalation with Russia and to simple pragmatism. After all, if the best weapons were given and deployed right away (after training was completed of course) but didn’t make much of a difference, then there’d be nothing better to give them once they ran out and defeat would soon follow.

It therefore makes sense to start small and exercise restraint before scaling up and easing restrictions. As regards the Palianytsia, while it might have an important tactical purpose if its claimed range is accurate, its real significance is to justify the easing of those aforesaid restrictions on the use of American arms. Ukraine wants policymakers and the public to believe that the Palianytsia was already used and Russia didn’t “overreact” like some expected, so it also won’t “overreact” if ATACMS restrictions are soon lifted.

While this ploy might prove successful, two of the implied points contained within the preceding narrative are counterproductive to Ukraine’s soft power cause. For example, some might question the need for more American arms and financing if Ukraine is already able to supposedly create long-range missiles on its own without any help like it claims just happened. There’s also the question of why the lifting of restrictions is so urgent if Ukraine is winning like it also claims is the case too.

If its military-industrial complex is carrying on just fine without any Western support and its invasion of Kursk has truly been the game-changer that some have presented it as being, then it follows that foreign aid could be curtailed and there’s no reason to risk an escalation with Russia by easing restrictions.

Neither is obviously true, but the fact that Ukraine is still pushing this narrative shows how much more desperate it’s becoming as well as the importance of elite and public opinion on this sensitive issue.

The Palianytsia is therefore more of a psychological weapon than a tactical one due to its envisaged role in reshaping perceptions and getting America to lift its restrictions on using the ATACMS to strike deep inside Russian territory. Even if it succeeds, however, that probably won’t change the military-strategic dynamics of this conflict in Kiev’s favor since Russia continues to gradually gain ground in Donbass, and its impending capture of Pokrovsk could lead to a chain reaction of victories in the coming future.

In 2023, global wealth increased by 4.2% as global stock markets rebounded and inflation eased.

While Europe, the Middle East, and Africa achieved the strongest wealth growth, the U.S. accelerated at roughly half the rate of these regions, at 2.5% annually. From a regional perspective, average wealth in 2023 breaks down as follows:

• Europe, the Middle East, and Africa: $166,000 per adult

• Asia Pacific: $156,000 per adult

• Americas: $146,000 per adult

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, shows the top 10 countries by average and median wealth, based on data from UBS.

Highest Average Wealth per Person, by Country

Average wealth is a country’s total wealth divided by the adult population. These figures can be skewed by extremely high or low values, such as wealth held by billionaires.

Below, we show the countries with the highest average wealth per person in 2023 across a dataset of 56 countries, covering approximately 92.2% of the global population:

Switzerland ranks first overall, with average wealth per adult increasing from $685,226 in 2022 to $709,612 in 2023.

As we can see, many of the most affluent nations are small countries with thriving financial sectors, including Luxembourg and Singapore. These countries benefit from significant foreign direct investment and pro-business policies, which help spur economic wealth. In Singapore, capital gains and dividend income are tax-free.

Highest Median Wealth per Person, by Country

If we are to look at a more representative measure of wealth distribution, through median wealth, it tells a different story.

Median wealth is the value that divides a population’s total wealth in half, with half of the population having more and half having less. It represents the “middle of the pack.”

As the table below shows, median wealth per adult is much lower than average figures across many countries, highlighting wealth gaps across populations. In Switzerland, it is four times smaller, while median wealth is nearly five times lower in the United States:

By this measure, Luxembourg sits at the top, a country with the highest density of millionaires in the world.

Roughly 16% of the population are millionaires, compared to the 1.5% average across the 56 countries analyzed. Additionally, there are no billionaires in Luxembourg, standing at a population of just 653,000 people.

Moreover, Australia and Belgium rise up the ranks, with Belgium seeing a particularly small gap between average and median wealth. Part of this is attributed to high real estate ownership in Belgium, where 10% of the population own more than one home.

To learn more about this topic from a U.S.-based perspective, check out this graphic on wealth distribution by income group in America.

Via ReMix News,

In what is increasingly becoming a PR disaster for the far-left German government, the terror knife attack in Solingen, perpetrated by a Syrian national, is highlighting the unavoidable connection between immigration and exploding crime and violence.

In the wake of the attack, German police union (DPoIG) chairman Manuel Ostermann slammed the status quo, called the immigration problems a crime problem, and said Islam was the greatest threat to the country in terms of security.

🇩🇪‼️ “Germany is no longer a safe country… The migration crisis is first and foremost a crime crisis.”

German police union (DPoIG) chairman Manuel Ostermann makes a major statement following the Solingen terror attack by a Syrian Islamist. pic.twitter.com/ZolmrLnMHa

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 28, 2024

“Yes, our country has changed. Nothing about it is positive. Germany is no longer a safe country. We have a massive problem with knife crime. The migration crisis is first and foremost a crime crisis. And the greatest danger to life and limb of people living in Germany is clearly posed by Islamists. This reality can no longer be ignored or tabooed. Now is the time to recognize reality and implement clear measures in the constitutional fight against precisely this security policy madness,” Ostermann said in a video statement.

As the leader of the second-largest police union in Germany, with nearly 100,000 members, his words carry extra weight with the public and police forces who have to deal with Germany’s surging insecurity.

In an interview, he said that politicians often deliver empty phrases following such attacks, and Solingen was no different. He noted that the Islamist terror attack in Mannheim, which resulted in a police officer’s death showed, there is little concern for what officers have to face.

“It is incomprehensible that budgetary resources for the police are being cut while the threat level is increasing,” Ostermann told Apollo News.

🇩🇪‼️ NEW: After a Syrian migrant killed 3 at the Festival of Diversity in Solingen, now the German far-left government is talking about what amounts to essentially banning knives.

The problem?

Knife-free zones already exist, and they are woefully ineffective in Germany. pic.twitter.com/p3cE5zr4uY

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 27, 2024

According to Ostermann, asylum policy is failing. The trade unionist said there is a lack of deportation detention centers, bureaucratic insanity, and a lack of action from politicians. The fact that most deportations fail “speaks volumes,” he said.

Ostermann’s stance is a sharp repudiation of Interior Minister Nancy Faeser’s claims for years that the far right is the country’s biggest extremism threat, despite ample evidence showing otherwise. Now, with record violent crime levels in Germany, record amounts of foreigners committing crimes, an Islamic extremist knife attacker in Mannheim who killed a police officer earlier this year, and the latest attack in Solingen during the Festival of Diversity that killed three, her claims are looking more and more ludicrous.

Meanwhile, Social Democrat (SPD) leader Saskia Esken claimed in response to the Solingen massacre that “I don’t think we can learn much from this attack.”

🇩🇪‼️The left plays dumb after terror knife murders in Germany

After a Syrian migrant kills 3 at the Festival of Diveristy in Solingen, the head of the far-left SPD party, Saskia Esken, says: “I don’t think we can learn much from this atack.”

She made this claim despite… pic.twitter.com/LhiPv6m6Kp

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) August 28, 2024

Notably, the Syrian national responsible was ordered to be deported in 2022 but went into hiding. After reappearing six months later, he was granted protected status.

Read more here…

Authored by Alastair Crooke,

War propaganda and feint are as old as the hills. Nothing new. But what is new is that infowar is no longer the adjunct to wider war objectives – but has become an end in and of itself.

The West has come to view ‘owning’ the winning narrative – and presenting the Other’s as clunky, dissonant, and extremist – as being more important than facing facts-on-the ground. Owning the winning narrative is to win, in this view. Virtual ‘victory’ thus trumps ‘real’ reality.

So, war becomes rather the setting for imposing ideological alignment across a wide global alliance and enforcing it via compliant media.

This objective enjoys a higher priority than, say, ensuring a manufacturing capacity sufficient to sustain military objectives. Crafting an imagined ‘reality’ has taken precedence over shaping the ground reality.

The point here is that this approach – being a function of whole of society alignment (both at home and abroad) – creates entrapments into false realities, false expectations, from which an exit (when such becomes necessary), turns near impossible, precisely because imposed alignment has ossified public sentiment. The possibility for a State to change course as events unfold becomes curtailed or lost, and the accurate reading of facts on the ground veers toward the politically correct and away from reality.

The cumulative effect of ‘a winning virtual narrative’ holds the risk nonetheless, of sliding incrementally toward inadvertent ‘real war’.

Take, for example, the NATO-orchestrated and equipped incursion into the symbolically significant Kursk Oblast. In terms of a ‘winning narrative’, its appeal to the West is obvious: Ukraine ‘takes the war to into Russia’.

Had the Ukrainian forces succeeded in capturing the Kursk Nuclear Power Station, they then would have had a significant bargaining chip, and might well have syphoned away Russian forces from the steadily collapsing Ukrainian ‘Line’ in Donbas.

And to top it off, (in infowar terms), the western media was prepped and aligned to show President Putin as “frozen” by the surprise incursion, and “wobbling” with anxiety that the Russian public would turn against him in their anger at the humiliation.

Bill Burns, head of CIA, opined that “Russia would offer no concessions on Ukraine, until Putin’s over-confidence was challenged, and Ukraine could show strength”. Other U.S. officials added that the Kursk incursion – in itself – would not bring Russia to the negotiating table; It would be necessary to build on the Kursk operation with other daring operations (to shake Moscow’s sang froid).

Of course, the overall aim was to show Russia as fragile and vulnerable, in line with the narrative that, at any moment Russia, could crack apart and scatter to the wind, in fragments. Leaving the West as winner, of course.

In fact, the Kursk incursion was a huge NATO gamble: It involved mortgaging Ukraine’s military reserves and armour, as chips on the roulette table, as a bet that an ephemeral success in Kursk would upend the strategic balance. The bet was lost, and the chips forfeit.

Plainly put, this Kursk affair exemplifies the West’s problem with ‘winning narratives’: Their inherent flaw is that they are grounded in emotivism and eschew argumentation. Inevitably, they are simplistic. They are simply intended to fuel a ‘whole of society’ common alignment. Which is to say that across MSM; business, federal agencies, NGOs and the security sector, all should adhere to opposing all ‘extremisms’ threatening ‘our democracy’.

This aim, of itself, dictates that the narrative be undemanding and relatively uncontentious: ‘Our Democracy, Our Values and Our Consensus’. The Democratic National Convention, for example, embraces ‘Joy’ (repeated endlessly), ‘moving Forward’ and ‘opposing weirdness’ as key statements. They are banal, however, these memes are given their energy and momentum, not by content so much, as by the deliberate Hollywood setting lending them razzamatazz and glamour.

It is not hard to see how this one-dimensional zeitgeist may have contributed to the U.S. and its allies’ misreading the impact of today’s Kursk ‘daring adventure’ on ordinary Russians.

‘Kursk’ has history. In 1943, Germany invaded Russia in Kursk to divert from its own losses, with Germany ultimately defeated at the Battle of Kursk. The return of German military equipment to the environs of Kursk must have left many gaping; the current battlefield around the town of Sudzha is precisely the spot where, in 1943, the Soviet 38th and 40th armies coiled for a counteroffensive against the German 4th Army.

Over the centuries, Russia has been variously attacked on its vulnerable flank from the West. And more recently by Napoleon and Hitler. Unsurprisingly, Russians are acutely sensitive to this bloody history. Did Bill Burns et al think this through? Did they imagine that NATO invading Russia itself would make Putin feel ‘challenged’, and that with one further shove, he would fold, and agree to a ‘frozen’ outcome in Ukraine – with the latter entering NATO? Maybe they did.

Ultimately the message that western services sent was that the West (NATO) is coming for Russia. This is the meaning of deliberately choosing Kursk. Reading the runes of Bill Burns message says prepare for war with NATO.

Just to be clear, this genre of ‘winning narrative’ surrounding Kursk is neither deceit nor feint. The Minsk Accords were examples of deceit, but they were deceits grounded in rational strategy (i.e. they were historically normal). The Minsk deceits were intended to buy the West time to further Ukraine’s militarisation – before attacking the Donbas. The deceit worked, but only at the price of a rupture of trust between Russia and the West. The Minsk deceits however, also accelerated an end to the 200-year era of the westification of Russia.

Kursk rather, is a different ‘fish’. It is grounded in the notions of western exceptionalism. The West perceives itself as tacking to ‘the right side of History’. ‘Winning narratives’ essentially assert – in secular format – the inevitability of the western eschatological Mission for global redemption and convergence. In this new narrative context, facts-on-the-ground become mere irritants, and not realities that must be taken into account.

This their Achilles’ Heel.

The DNC convention in Chicago however, underscored a further concern:

Just as the hegemonic West arose out of the Cold War era shaped and invigorated through dialectic opposition to communism (in the western mythology), so we see today, a (claimed) totalising ‘extremism’ (whether of MAGA mode; or of the external variety: Iran, Russia, etc.) – posed in Chicago in a similar Hegelian dialectic opposition to the former capitalism versus communism; but in today’s case, it is “extremism” in conflict with “Our Democracy”.

The DNC Chicago narrative-thesis is itself a tautology of identity differentiation posing as ‘togetherness’ under a diversity banner and in conflict with ‘whiteness’ and ‘extremism’. ‘Extremism’ effectively plainly is being set up as the successor to the former Cold War antithesis – communism.

The Chicago ‘back-room’ may be imagining that a confrontation with extremism – writ widely – will again, as it did in the post-Cold War era, yield an American rejuvenation. Which is to say that a conflict with Iran, Russia, and China (in a different way) may come onto the agenda. The telltale signs are there (plus the West’s need for a re-set of its economy, which war regularly provides).

The Kursk ploy no doubt seemed clever and audacious to London and Washington. Yet with what result? It achieved neither objective of taking Kursk NPP, nor of syphoning Russian troops from the Contact Line. The Ukrainian presence in the Kursk Oblast will be eliminated.

What it did do, however, is put an end to all prospects of an eventual negotiated settlement in Ukraine. Distrust of the U.S. in Russia is now absolute. It has made Moscow more determined to prosecute the special operation to conclusion. German equipment visible in Kursk has raised old ghosts, and consolidated awareness of the hostile western intentions toward Russia.

‘Never again’ is the unspoken riposte.