Tehran Claims US Faces Escalating Economic Fallout From ‘War Of Choice’ As Hardship Mounts Inside Iran
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Saturday that the United States would face mounting economic fallout from its “war of choice” against Iran, as both sides appear settled into a long game of waiting to inflict the most severe economic and political damage on the other.
In a post on X, Araghchi said Americans would bear the escalating financial costs of the conflict with Tehran. “Put aside gas price hike and stock market bubble. Real pain begins when U.S. debt and mortgage rates start to jump,” he wrote in English. This isn’t the first time Iranian officials and state media have tried to directly appeal to the American public.
Araghchi also pointed to growing economic strain inside the United States, saying auto loan delinquencies had already climbed to their highest level in more than 30 years. “This was all avoidable,” he added, framing the start of the conflict as Trump’s ‘war of choice’ in the Middle East.
Of course, the Pentagon has a big card to play too, as on Saturday US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that four vessels in the Hormuz area were “disabled to ensure compliance.”
In an official statement it said that that since the imposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, 75 commercial vessels have been redirected and four others disabled to “ensure compliance”.
There is no doubt the US naval blockade is putting immense economic pressure on the Iranian government, society, and the energy sectors as crude shit-ins loom, or are in progress…
The internal Iranian regime narrative has shifted markedly in the past 72 hours. Multiple officials have now openly acknowledged Iran’s structural gasoline deficit, war-damaged energy infrastructure, and the urgent need for consumption management.
One Saudi-funded source alleges of the tightening hardship situation inside Iran:
Fuel shortages and tighter rationing are pushing drivers across Iran into a growing gasoline black market, with citizens describing long lines at gas stations and sharply inflated prices in messages sent to Iran International.
The accounts describe growing frustration over restricted access to subsidized gasoline and arbitrary limits imposed by operators, leaving many motorists dependent on costly unofficial sales.
…Iran uses a subsidized fuel quota system controlled through electronic fuel cards. Every private vehicle receives a monthly gasoline allocation at discounted prices, while extra consumption is charged at higher rates.
One citizen was cited in the same report as complaining: “One day there’s quota left on your card, the next day it says your quota is finished. They even steal the few drops of gasoline they give people.”
The standoff drags on, amid reports the Trump administration is mulling resumption of the bombing campaign:
“There is no military solution to anything related to Iran”
Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi emphasizes that the country will resist any aggression or pressure.
However, US and Gulf media reports about the economic and political crisis inside Iran have often been somewhat exaggerated, in ‘hopes’ of anti-regime sentiment being stirred enough for some kind of new anti-government uprising. But that has yet to come, after months of war launched by the US and Israel. It seems Washington is still pinning its hopes on exactly this.
Congratulations to Kevin Warsh on officially becoming the next Federal Reserve chair. Unfortunately for him, he may have just accepted the worst job in global finance at the worst possible moment.
Warsh was narrowly confirmed this week in the most partisan Fed chair vote in modern history, inheriting a central bank that has spent years under political attack while gliding straight into a macroeconomic minefield. Inflation just accelerated to a three-year high. Oil is higher amid Middle East tensions. President Trump is openly demanding lower rates. And now the bond market appears to be losing patience, pushing yields dramatically higher to end the week last week.
Friday was a perfect preview of the mess waiting for him.
On Friday, most investors spent the day staring at falling tech stocks as the S&P 500 dropped 1.24% and the Nasdaq fell 1.54%, but that wasn’t the real story. The real story was happening in Treasuries, where the 30-year yield ripped above 5.1% as investors digested hotter inflation data from earlier in the week and the growing realization that rates may need to stay higher for longer than Wall Street has been pricing in.
That’s where things get dangerous. Stocks can correct 5% and CNBC can fill airtime with “buy the dip” segments. Bond markets are different. When yields rise this fast, they tighten financial conditions everywhere at once. Mortgage rates stay elevated, corporate borrowing costs rise, commercial real estate refinancing gets uglier, and the federal government’s own interest expense starts ballooning.
And this is happening while the consumer is already showing cracks. Auto loan delinquencies are sitting near 2008 levels. Credit card delinquencies are hovering around financial crisis highs. Consumers are increasingly relying on high-interest debt just as inflation continues squeezing real wages.
That inflation problem is exactly what makes Warsh’s situation so miserable. CPI is still running at 3.8%. PPI is at 6%. Oil just moved above $100. This is not an environment where the Fed can casually ride in with emergency rate cuts or restart quantitative easing without risking another inflation wave.
Which is particularly awkward because Kevin Warsh has spent years arguing that the Fed became far too involved in financial markets and should shrink its $6.7 trillion balance sheet faster. He’s repeatedly pushed the idea that the central bank should stop acting like a permanent market backstop and return to more traditional monetary policy tools.
Very noble. Very disciplined. Very “markets need to stand on their own two feet.” And now he may be taking over just as markets are testing whether he actually means any of that.
Because it’s easy to give speeches about moral hazard when stocks are ripping higher, volatility is low, and everyone is pretending the economy is fine. It’s a little harder when the bond market starts throwing furniture around, long-term yields keep climbing, and every corner of the economy begins feeling the pressure at once.
Again, higher Treasury yields don’t just hurt speculative tech names—they ripple through everything. Housing activity slows as mortgage rates remain elevated. Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Commercial real estate gets squeezed even harder. Private equity exits dry up. Government interest payments balloon. Suddenly everyone from first-time homebuyers to Treasury officials starts having a very bad week.
And then there’s the stock market, which continues behaving like none of this applies to it. The Shiller P/E ratio is sitting around 42x—deep into “what could possibly go wrong?” territory. That kind of valuation only works if inflation cools quickly, rates fall, earnings remain strong, and liquidity stays abundant. In other words, it requires basically everything to go right at the exact moment a lot of things are going wrong.
That’s what makes this such a brutal setup for Warsh, as I wrote here: This Rally Ends In Panic.
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If he lets yields continue climbing, he risks a broader market repricing, rising defaults, housing weakness, and credit stress that spills into the real economy. If he cuts rates too aggressively or restarts bond purchases, he risks pouring gasoline on inflation that is already running too hot. If he does nothing and tries to wait it out? Markets may decide for him.
That’s the problem with bond markets. They don’t care about academic framework. They don’t care about your carefully worded press conferences. And they definitely do not care about your long-term policy vision when they think inflation, deficits, and fiscal credibility are deteriorating in real time.
Just ask Liz Truss how quickly bond investors can humble policymakers.
So genuinely, good luck, Kevin. No sarcasm there. He’s walking into a non-enviable situation where inflation is sticky, consumers are weakening, stocks look euphoric, geopolitical tensions are driving oil prices higher, and the bond market may be on the verge of becoming the biggest source of instability in the entire financial system.
That’s not a soft landing, it’s a stress test disguised as a promotion. And while everyone else keeps obsessing over whether Nvidia is down 4% on a given day, Warsh should be staring directly at the Treasury marketl, because that’s where his real problems are about to begin.
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QTR’s Disclaimer:Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only.In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
50 Empty Waymos Invade Upscale Tiny Atlanta Neighborhood
With Waymo robotaxis now operating in 11 major U.S. markets, these fully autonomous Jaguar I-PACE SUVs are becoming increasingly visible to everyday folks. This wider rollout means more public encounters and more viral footage capturing robotaxis in the wild.
One such incident occurred in a northwest Atlanta neighborhood this week, where residents told local media outlet WSB-TV that more than 50 empty Waymo SUVs flooded their tiny street.
“It’s almost every little cul-de-sac in our area, so I think it’s a problem,” one neighbor on Battleview Drive told WSB’s Steve Gehlbach.
The Battleview resident said, “I think yesterday morning we had 50 cars come through between 6 and 7.”
It’s not just Battleview; other residents in the area say empty robotaxis have been repeatedly circling their streets in growing numbers over the past several weeks.
Residents told the local outlet that the robotaxis are not picking up passengers, raising concerns that the activity is excessive and potentially dangerous, especially for families with children nearby.
Expect more stories like this as robotaxi deployment ramps up nationwide. We have provided readers with enough context about robotaxi deployments (see here and here).
The UAE tried but failed to persuade neighboring states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to take part in a coordinated military attack on Iran, Bloombergreported Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter.
UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) spoke by phone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) and other regional leaders to propose the coordinated attacks, shortly after the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, the sources said.
During the calls, MbZ argued that the states that formed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) must act as a bloc to attack Iran alongside the US and Israel. However, his fellow Gulf leaders told him it was “not their war,” according to the report.
When Saudi Crown Prince MbS refused to go along with the scheme, already shaky ties between the UAE and Saudi Arabia were further strained. The Saudi refusal also contributed to the Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+, the oil-producing cartel, and deepen its existing ties to Israel.
The UAE ultimately carried out several strikes against Iran without support from other Gulf states in early March and in April. Iran targeted US bases and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia with drones in the first days of the war. Yet the kingdom focused its efforts on promoting Pakistani-mediated negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Qatar considered joining the UAE in an attack after Iranian missile strikes hit Doha’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, causing extensive damage and major fires, a Gulf official said. However, Doha also ultimately chose to de-escalate and throw its support behind negotiations.
Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman joined Saudi Arabia and Qatar in rejecting the UAE plan. One source said US officials were aware of the UAE effort and that Washington pushed Saudi Arabia and Qatar to join a coordinated military response.
On Thursday, the Financial Times (FT) reported that Saudi Arabia had “floated” the possibility of reaching a “non-aggression pact” between Iran and neighboring states modeled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which eased tensions during the Cold War in Europe.
The Saudi-proposed pact for the day after the US-Israeli war on Iran ends reportedly has support from several European capitals, which view it as “the best way to avoid future conflict” and have urged Arab states to support it.
The British daily cites an unnamed Arab diplomat who says that such a pact would be welcomed “by most Arab and Muslim states, as well as by Iran,” although severe concerns remain about Israel’s continued threats to reignite the war regardless of any deal.
Meanwhile, the two-day meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in New Delhi ended on Friday without a joint statement due to “differing views” on the US-Israeli war against Iran and the current situation in West Asia. The foreign ministers expressed “their respective national positions and shared a range of perspectives,” according to a statement issued by India.
The statement added that one member state had “reservations” about issues related to Gaza, as well as security in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during the meeting that “Iran is a country that cannot be divided. The era of American dominance is over.” He also singled out the UAE for blocking the ministerial BRICS statement, and pointed out its “own special relationship with Israel.”
One Of Russia’s Largest Fuel Facilities Spews ‘Black Rain’ Over Ryazan After Deadly Ukrainian Drone Strike
An early Friday drone strike triggered a major fire at the Ryazan Oil Refinery, one of Russia’s largest fuel production facilities, according to local residents and Russian monitoring channels.
Residents reported multiple loud explosions after drones were seen flying over the city, with videos circulating online showing flames and thick smoke rising from the refinery.
“An ASTRA OSINT analyst has determined that in addition to two high-rise buildings, an oil refinery in the city was damaged. Photos taken by witnesses were taken near the Olympic Town microdistrict, approximately 4 km from the Ryazan Oil Refinery,” one independent Russian outlet wrote.
Two high-rise buildings in Ryazan were also struck, resulting in significant casualties:
A Ukrainian drone barrage killed at least four people and ignited a huge fire at an oil refinery in the city of Ryazan on Friday, in what appeared to be a direct retaliation for a deadly Russian strike on Kyiv a day earlier.
Ryazan region Governor Pavel Malkov confirmed the deaths in posts on Telegram, adding that dozens of people, including children, were wounded in the attack. He said drones struck two apartment buildings and an industrial site, which he did not identify by name.
There were also reports that “black rain” fell from the sky after the refinery was struck, which adds additional confirmation to serious damage at the fuel facility amid the ongoing emergency response:
The strike sparked a fire at the Ryazan oil refinery, leading to what some locals described as an “oil rain.” Residents complained online of sticky black spots on their cars, windows, and building facades.
Ukrainian sources have alleged that both the Ryazan refinery and Gazprom’s Astrakhan gas plant are considered critical components of Moscow’s war infrastructure.
Last week a brief ceasefire held. Soon on the heels of the successful 3-day and US-backed ‘V-Day’ ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, Russian forces went on to unleash several days of drone and missile barrages on Ukrainian cities, especially the capital. Some 1,500 missiles and drones were launched in just 48 hours.
BBC reported Thursday that “At least seven people have been killed, including a 12-year-old girl, in Kyiv after Russia launched a massive wave of drone and missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital and other regions, officials have said.”
Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks of recent months, setting Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery ablaze and striking military targets across multiple regions.
The refinery processes 17.1M tons of oil annually and sits just 180 km from Moscow, The Kyiv Independent. 1/ pic.twitter.com/HhArH7sf6f
Sadly, the tit-for-tat ‘revenge’ strikes are only increasing, and more and more apartment blocks and civilian neighborhoods on each side have been coming under devastating attacks.
Democrats Devastated After Supreme Court Rejects Attempt To Revive Virginia Congressional Map
Hammering the last nail in the coffin of what could have been a significant midterm factor, the US Supreme Court on Friday rejected Virginia Democrats’ request to use a new congressional district map, which was drawn to flip four House seats into Democratic control.
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“The US Supreme Court moments ago has ruled AGAINST Virginia Democrats when it comes to reviving their pro-Democrat redistricting map ahead of the 2026 midterms.”
As is typical in this kind of “emergency” ruling, the court provided no legal rationale or vote count — however no dissents were noted.
The new map was expected to dramatically alter the composition of Virginia’s US House delegation, boosting Democrats from their current slim 6-5 edge to 10-1 domination. For context, in 2024 presidential balloting, Virginia voters were split 52% for Democrat Kamala Harris and 46% for Donald Trump.
On May 8, the Virginia Supreme Court denied a request from Democrats and state officials to lift a lower-court orderblocking certification of the April 21 redistricting referendum.
Voters approved the Democrat-accommodating map by a 52-to-48 margin, but a Virginia circuit court declared the referendum null and void, saying Democrats had run afoul of state constitutional measures that exist to fend off partisan gerrymandering.
After that setback, Democrats sought to salvage their new map with an appeal to the US Supreme Court, which has now failed. Two days earlier, Gov Abigail Spanberger had already waved a white flag of sorts, implying that Virginia’s May 12 deadline for map changes made the emergency request to the US Supreme Court something of a moot point.
“What needs to happen is we need to focus on the task at hand, which is winning races in November,” she said.
However, after the ruling, she opportunistically lashed out at the Supreme Court:
Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, criticized the decision, which she said had the effect of nullifying “the votes of more than three million Virginians.”
“As Governor, I will make sure voters know when and how to cast their votes this year. Because our votes are how we choose the representation we deserve,” she wrote on X.
The Supreme Court of the United States has now joined the Supreme Court of Virginia in choosing to nullify an election and the votes of more than three million Virginians.
These Virginians made their voices heard — casting their ballots in good faith to push back against a…
— Governor Abigail Spanberger (@GovernorVA) May 16, 2026
The lead respondent, Virginia state Sen. Ryan McDougle, a Republican, who is also legislative commissioner for the Virginia Redistricting Commission hailed the new ruling.
“The Supreme Court of the United States has affirmed what we always knew: you cannot violate the Constitution to change the Constitution,” the state lawmaker wrote on X.
The Virginia battle was part of a nationwide saga that started last year, when Texas Republicans redrew their congressional map to gain seats, strayingfrom what had been a fairly (but not thoroughly) universal norm that saw states refrain from redistricting that wasn’t driven by once-a-decade census results. Following the lead of California Democrats who undertook their own maneuvers to offset the Texas map, the Virginia leftists who gained full control of state government in 2025 responded with a constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts outside the normal 10-year cycle — specifically to “restore fairness” if other states gerrymandered (bases on the convoluted implication that varied wrongs against the citizenry of multiple states can add up to a national right).
Despite the implosion of the Virginia Democrats’ scheme, and the view that the net result of the redistricting war will flip seats to the GOP column, prediction-market participants lean heavily toward Democrats wresting control of the House from Republicans, who currently have a 217-212 edge over the Democrats. (One representative is an independent and there are five vacant seats owing to deaths and resignations.)
Chalk up the difference between the redistricting outcome and the predicted 2026 House elections to resurgent price inflation springing from the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran, disenchantment with the broader economy, and a career-high disapproval rating for party standard-bearer Trump.
Lefty Union Paralyzes Long Island Rail Road As Strike Sets Commuter Chaos Countdown For Monday
Yet another reason for privatizing mass transportation emerged Saturday morning, after a left-wing rail union launched a strike set to snarl the nation’s busiest commuter railroad network.
The labor action threatens to paralyze the Long Island Rail Road, a critical transportation artery spanning the New York City-to-Long Island corridor and linking Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens with Nassau and Suffolk counties.
The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers & Trainmen (BLET), which endorsed former left-wing and failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris, said its 3,500 members who work for the LIRR went on strike early Saturday morning.
“No agreement on wage increases was reached between a coalition of five unions, including BLET, and the LIRR. In accordance with the terms of the Railway Labor Act, the coalition’s 3,500 members went on strike just after midnight,” BLET wrote on X.
No agreement on wage increases was reached between a coalition of five unions, including BLET, and the LIRR. In accordance with the terms of the Railway Labor Act, the coalition’s 3,500 members went on strike just after midnight on Saturday, May 16. Story: https://t.co/UcCgIVItiApic.twitter.com/BW9Un14kHc
— Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (@BLET) May 16, 2026
BLET’s National Vice President Kevin Sexton was quoted by AP News as saying that negotiations between the union and the LIRR have collapsed.
“We’re far apart at this point,” Sexton said. “We are truly sorry that we are in this situation.”
MTA Chairman Janno Lieber said LIRR “gave the union everything they said they wanted in terms of pay,” and that to him it was apparent the unions always intended to walk out.
In fact, we detailed in August 2025 a comprehensive “Color Revolution: A Strategic Assessment (2025-2028),“outlining how left-wing unions and NGOs were planning “coordinated, targeted, and nonviolent strategic action such as national strikes and boycotts, large-scale disruption to economic activity and civil society, and other forms of mass political defiance designed to damage a government’s legitimacy, authority, and capacity.”
The rail strike threatens major disruption for roughly 270,000 daily riders and could cost the region an estimated $61 million in lost economic activity per day.
The labor action will likely backfire because LIRR riders are mostly middle-class, and the shutdown of the transportation network will hurt working households the most.
Limited shuttle bus service is planned beginning Monday, but capacity will cover only a fraction of normal ridership.
This is the first strike on the LIRR since 1994, and the timing could not be worse, as commuting across the service area will be a nightmare come Monday morning. This is also unfolding in a state controlled by unhinged Democrats, alongside a socialist mayor in NYC.
Heading into Friday’s cash open, U.S. equity futures are under pressure, with S&P 500 futures down roughly 1% and Nasdaq futures off even more sharply as global bond markets sold off overnight.
CNBC reported that by Friday morning in London, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield had climbed nearly 9 basis points to 4.544%, marking its highest level in almost a year. The move wasn’t isolated to the U.S. U.K. 10-year gilt yields jumped another 15 basis points as investors continued digesting fiscal and political instability abroad, while Japan’s 2-year yield surged as much as 19 basis points before cooling modestly.
Government bonds, precious metals, and international equities all sold off simultaneously as investors began repricing inflation risks, geopolitical instability, and the growing realization that central banks may not be rushing to save markets anytime soon.
That matters because this is how stress sometimes tends to emerge in overextended markets. It rarely starts with equities themselves. It often begins in credit markets, rates markets, or funding markets before eventually spilling over into stocks.
Bond markets are significantly larger than equity markets and tend to be less interested in speculative narratives and far more focused on inflation, fiscal deficits, growth expectations, and the actual cost of money. When yields move this aggressively higher in such a short period of time, financial conditions tighten almost immediately. Mortgage rates remain elevated. Corporate borrowing costs rise. Refinancing becomes more expensive. Valuation models become less forgiving. Most importantly, the higher yields go, the less rational it becomes to pay extreme multiples for speculative growth stocks that have been pricing in a near-perfect future.
I also argued that this no longer resembled a traditional bull market built on broad participation, earnings growth, or healthy economic expansion. Instead, I described a market increasingly driven by narrow leadership, speculative options activity, and momentum chasing concentrated in a handful of names. Bloomberg’s Simon White’s observations reinforced that thesis. He highlighted the fastest rise in S&P gamma ever recorded, historically low correlation, and extreme dispersion beneath the surface.
And that fragility becomes far more dangerous when interest rates begin moving against speculative positioning.
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As I wrote yesterday, call buying in individual stocks has exploded while broader index participation has weakened. Zero-day options have accounted for roughly 60 percent of call volume. Those dynamics can create powerful upside reflexivity when markets are moving higher, but they can also create violent downside reflexivity when momentum breaks. Dealers who were previously forced to buy shares as markets rose can quickly become forced sellers when positioning reverses. The same machine that helped levitate prices can accelerate downside volatility when sentiment shifts.
Lauren Hyslop, investment manager at Mattioli Woods, summarized the situation well in comments to CNBC: “Rising bond yields are once again imposing their will on markets, tightening financial conditions and sapping risk appetite across asset classes,” she said.
She added that investors are confronting the “uncomfortable reality of ‘higher for longer’ rates in the U.S., as stubborn inflation and surprisingly resilient growth push back any meaningful pivot to easing.” She also noted that a stronger dollar, fading expectations for liquidity support, geopolitical uncertainty, and fiscal concerns are all adding pressure simultaneously. That combination is particularly dangerous because it removes the easy narrative markets have relied on for months that rate cuts were inevitable and policymakers would remain quick to intervene.
The fact that the Fed is stuck between a 3.8% CPI and 6% PPI rock and a market-teetering-on-the-brink-of violently-pulling-back hard place was the core of yesterday’s concern. If the bond market starts to get violent, what options does the Fed have to start printing to buy bonds and do yield curve control with inflation already where it is? The central bank’s hands might be tied — and this is a scary (and somewhat unprecedented) thought.
Markets had become increasingly comfortable assuming inflation would continue cooling, rates would eventually fall, and liquidity would remain abundant enough to support elevated valuations indefinitely. Meanwhile, as I noted yesterday, consumer stress has continued quietly building beneath the surface. Credit card delinquencies have been rising. Auto delinquencies have been climbing. Student loan repayment pressures are returning.
That disconnect was never likely to resolve itself quietly. Eventually either yields had to fall fast enough to justify equity valuations, or equities had to reprice to reflect a higher-for-longer reality. Today may not be the full unwinding event. Dip buyers may once again step in. Momentum could persist longer than fundamentals suggest. Blowoff tops often last longer than rational investors expect. But today’s bond move is a reminder that the underlying fragility I wrote about yesterday is very real.
The broader issue remains unchanged. The Federal Reserve still looks trapped between two deeply unattractive choices. Tighten policy further and risk breaking highly leveraged parts of the economy and financial markets. Pivot back toward aggressive liquidity support and risk reigniting inflation while further damaging confidence in the dollar. Neither path is clean. Both paths create volatility.
And that is why caution remains warranted. When markets become this speculative, this narrow, and this dependent on cheap money assumptions, it does not take much to trigger instability. Sometimes all it takes is the bond market reminding everyone that money still has a cost.
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QTR’s Disclaimer:Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only.In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
Samsung, South Korean Union Resume Talks As Strike Threat Risks Disrupting Memory Chip Fabs
Heavy selling swept across Asian markets on Friday, with South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI plunging 6% as traders aggressively reduced exposure to the country’s semiconductor sector. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the decline. The catalyst for the sell-off was labor action risk headlines at Samsung, where the company’s union threatened a strike that could disrupt production lines at the world’s largest memory chip manufacturer.
By Saturday morning, there was a major sigh of relief: Samsung and its labor union would resume government-mediated pay talks on Monday, according to a Reuters report.
The union released a statement earlier explaining that Samsung had replaced its negotiation team, and both sides would meet later Saturday for separate meetings ahead of Monday.
Chairman Jay Y. Lee issued a public apology over the labor dispute, alongside Samsung’s decision to replace its lead negotiator:
“I sincerely apologize to customers around the world for causing anxiety and concern due to issues within our company,” Lee said, telling reporters that he also “deeply bows in apology to the public.”
South Korean officials, including the labor minister, prime minister, and finance minister, have urged both the union and Samsung to resolve their labor issues, as a strike could threaten production lines for some of the world’s most advanced memory chips, which are critical for AI data center buildouts.
The collapse in talks on Friday sparked a sharp decline in the KOSPI, ending weeks of gains. It also comes as the world is suffering from a deepening memory supply crunch (read here).
Shares of Samsung in South Korea closed down 6.66%.
However, Taiwan-based market intelligence and research firm TrendForce wrote on X:
Samsung’s strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company’s semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited.
However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, and customer relations. In terms of unionization, about half of all employees across the Samsung Group are union members, most of whom work in the semiconductor division. Internally, management has already extended an olive branch to the DRAM division, but has not yet reached an agreement with union members in the Foundry and LSI divisions.
Samsung’s strike is set to formally begin on May 21. Because the company’s semiconductor fabs are already highly automated, the impact on production is expected to be limited. However, there will likely be noticeable disruptions to packaging and logistics, R&D and design, as well… https://t.co/l2ibgeXEIL
Given that memory is a critical component of data center buildouts, why would the union suddenly feel compelled to risk seizing up memory-chip production lines unless there was an ulterior motive?
In the U.S., unhinged socialist Bernie Sanders has pushed a data center bill moratorium, which is very suspicious because it would only allow China to catch up to the U.S.
Separately, it is worth noting that DEI has effectively been backronymed into “Data Centers, Electricity, and Infrastructure.”
The UK government will introduce legislation banning new North Sea oil and gas exploration licences as part of its Energy Independence Bill.
Critics argue the policy will increase Britain’s reliance on imported fossil fuels while damaging Scotland’s oil and gas industry.
Rising oil prices and disruptions tied to the Iran conflict have intensified political pressure on Labour to reconsider the ban.
The government will make it illegal to grant new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, the King said at the state opening of Parliament, in a sign ministers are refusing to buckle in the face of a barrage of criticism that the policy is depriving the UK of billions of pounds in tax receipts without helping the environment.
As part of an Energy Independence Bill announced in the King’s Speech, the government will bake into law its pre-election pledge not to explore new oil and gas fields in a bid to “take control of our energy security”.
In its 2024 manifesto, the Labour Party made a ban on all new exploration and drilling licences in the North Sea a key pillar of its promise to turn Britain into a “clean energy superpower” by 2030.
But since entering government, the party has come under growing pressure to renege on the promise, with critics arguing it strangles one of Scotland’s most vibrant industries and fails to improve the UK’s environmental footprint.
Backlash against ‘deluded’ North Sea policy
Oil and gas still accounts for three-quarters of the UK’s energy mix. And the majority of those fossil fuels are now shipped in from abroad, meaning other economies benefit from the job creation and tax receipts that are derived from the lucrative drilling and refining processes.
Calls for the ministers to rethink the ban have grown louder since the outbreak of war in Iran led the price of crude oil to nearly double in a month.
Last week, Norway, which drills for oil in the same area of the North Sea as Britain, approved plans to reopen three gasfields that had been shut for decades to help sate the global demand for fossil fuels caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.
Two of Labour’s main political opponents – Reform UK and the Conservatives – have both vowed to overturn the ban, in a move they say would help increase the UK’s tax take and inoculate it from any acute supply shocks.
The ban, which the government claims will help Britain off the “roller-coaster of fossil fuel markets”, has also drawn criticism from the US’s ambassador to the UK, who has used multiple interviews to urge Britain to make more of its reserves.
Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho accused her opposite number Ed Miliband of being “utterly deluded” for seeking to put the ban into the statute book.
“He is not making us more independent. He is making us more reliant on foreign imports,” she said.