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Fannie, Freddie Jump After Trump Floats $1 Trillion Valuation

Fannie, Freddie Jump After Trump Floats $1 Trillion Valuation

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares jumped on Friday morning after President Trump said late Thursday that the mortgage giants were “probably worth $1 trillion,” reviving Wall Street hopes for a long-awaited exit from government control.

President Trump praised FHFA Director Bill Pulte on Thursday for turning around Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying the mortgage giants “probably have $1 trillion in value.”

Full transcript:

“…a person who’s got high integrity. He’s done a phenomenal job at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. You probably have $1 trillion in value there. When he took over it was much less, and I guess I’m responsible for that too because everybody wanted me to sell it in my first term for 10% of what it’s worth right now. If I would’ve sold it, we would’ve lost $900 billion. We would’ve lost. Think about it. It’s probably worth $1 trillion. People want me to sell it at $100 billion — a very small percentage of what it’s worth now. And he built up a lot. Did a great job. And it’s an acting position. He is not going to be permanent because I don’t think you’d want to be. But he was a smart guy. You may find out some things about the rigged elections, etc. etc. I think he wants to do it. He’s got a lot of energy but will be very good. He’s not a permanent position. We’re looking at — we are interviewing people right now. But it is somebody just to take over for a little while.”

Fannie and Freddie were both up in the early cash session, rising 5% and 3%, respectively. Shares in both mortgage giants tumbled earlier this week after Trump named Pulte as acting Director of National Intelligence, raising concerns that the dual role could delay the sale of the government’s stake.

As of Friday morning, Fannie shares are down 34% YTD, while Freddie has slumped 38% YTD, as traders grow uneasy over the pace of the Trump administration’s privatization plans. Optimism around potential share sales drove large gains in 2025.

Bose George, managing director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW), wrote in a note, “We’re comfortable with our most recently published numbers on the valuation—a current combined fair value in the $200–$250 billion range.”

Related:

Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist at BOK Financial, noted, “I don’t believe I will ever see Fannie and Freddie released from conservatorship, at least not in my lifetime.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 14:00

University Of Oregon Grapples With Budget Crisis After Years Of Woke Excess

University Of Oregon Grapples With Budget Crisis After Years Of Woke Excess

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

It appears that being unrelentingly woke means that you need fewer dormitories. The University of Oregon is facing a major budget crisis and will cut $65 million from its budget and close dorms due to low enrollment. That growing crisis, however, did not stop Oregon from burning almost a million dollars fighting against free speech. It also did not induce its faculty to offer greater intellectual diversity and tolerance to prospective students. Oregon is a cautionary tale for a generation of academic social warriors, but also an opportunity for those who want to restore balance in higher education.

Oregon has long been an example of academic orthodoxy. While most state schools begrudgingly yield to First Amendment demands and offer better free speech alternatives to private universities, Oregon is known as a hardened silo for the far left in teaching.

We previously discussed how Portland State University Professor Bruce Gilley, who was blocked from the Twitter account of the University of Oregon’s Division of Equity and Inclusion after tweeting “All men are created equal.” Oregon spent almost a million dollars fighting to bar such speech.

Such controversies have plagued the university for years, with no sign of self-examination by administrators or academics. The university was criticized for its monitoring of social media to punish errant thoughts or microaggressions. The law school’s law review was accused of anti-Israel discrimination.

The school previously gave special recognition to University of California (Santa Barbara) Professor Mireille Miller-Young, who criminally assaulted pro-life advocates on the campus of the University of California at Santa Barbara.  At the University of Oregon, she was honored as a featured speaker at the University of Oregon’s  Department of Women’s, Gender, and Sexuality Studies.  Part of its “black feminist speaker series,” Miller-Young’s work was highlighted by the College of Arts and Sciences and the Department of English to show “the radical potential of black feminism in the work that we do on campus and in our everyday lives.”

Now, the school is facing declining revenues and enrollments.

President Karl Scholz recently announced that this was due to lower out-of-state first-year enrollment, which means lower tuition revenue, increased costs, and a loss of grant funding.

Strangely, while closing dorms, the school is still building two new dorms.

Putting aside the school’s past budget judgment and discipline, the university’s reputation for intellectual orthodoxy deters many who do not want to pay tuition for their children to be indoctrinated or silenced.  Even with plunging trust in higher education, administrators and faculty cannot resist the temptation to exclude opposing voices.

Oregon is not the only school facing such shortfalls. Some woke institutions have closed entirely. The irony is that faculty would seem to prefer to see their institutions die than restore balance to their departments. However, this may offer a real opportunity for legislators and donors to force real changes in the culture of these schools.

As I have previously written, parents and students who value free speech must increasingly look to public universities where faculty are subject to constitutional guarantees. Public universities may be the final line of defense for free-speech advocates.

We now largely have two systems of higher education for those seeking education with a diversity of opinions and viewpoints. Except for outliers like the University of Chicago and other private universities holding the line on free speech, the orthodoxy found at private universities remains a barrier to many conservative and independent thinkers.

If we are to protect these bastions of free speech, legislatures will need to play a more active role in addressing the exclusion of both faculty candidates and speakers on public campuses. Too many faculty members continue to take the view that citizens are a captive audience expected to continue funding their departments, while excluding conservative or dissenting views held by many, if not most, citizens in a given state.

If faculty members want to continue maintaining echo chambers for their own viewpoints, they should have to seek private donors to sustain such intolerance and orthodoxy.

Legislatures can demand evidence that schools are maintaining intellectually diverse faculties in determining the level of continued support from citizens.

When some of us have argued for such campaigns, academics hypocritically claim that we are calling for political litmus tests or hiring based on political parties. It is an absurd argument that I have previously addressed, including in my book The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

The call is for donors and legislators to withhold funding until they see real reforms, including greater diversity on faculties. They are not directing the hiring but looking at the results. The faculty members objecting to such calls have watched passively (or actively supported) the purging of conservative or libertarian faculty from universities and colleges.

When confronted by their own obvious ideological litmus tests, they shrug. Some acknowledge that their departments are overwhelmingly liberal, but insist that they just cannot find “competent” or “intellectually promising” conservatives. A few will admit that they do not believe that conservative views have a place in their departments.

It is impossible to deny the purging of faculties to create an academic echo chamber. If a large corporation effectively eliminated women or minorities while claiming no conscious discrimination, they would be trounced in court.

For years, I have raised concerns about the intolerance in higher education and surveys showing that many departments no longer have a single Republican as faculty members replicate their own views and values. There is no evidence that any faculty members (including those acknowledging the loss of virtually all faculty from the right of center) are honestly willing to reform their schools.

That ideological echo chamber is hardly an enticement for many facing rising tuition costs and relatively little hope of being taught by faculty with opposing views.

A Georgetown study recently found that only nine percent of law school professors identify as conservative at the top 50 law schools — almost identical to the percentage of Trump voters found in the new poll.

There is little evidence that faculty members are interested in changing this culture or creating greater diversity at schools.  In places like North Carolina State University a study found that Democrats outnumbered Republicans 20 to 1.

As college and university presidents face these shortfalls, it is time for legislators and donors to demand real proof of diversity in hiring and a change in the culture of these institutions. Otherwise, schools like Oregon will continue to close dorms as they push wokeness over wisdom.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 13:40

“The Rebirth Of America’s Nuclear Industry”: Antares Microreactor Goes Critical

“The Rebirth Of America’s Nuclear Industry”: Antares Microreactor Goes Critical

Antares just did something that has been painfully rare in American nuclear energy: it took a privately developed advanced reactor from concept to actual criticality on an aggressive, publicly stated schedule.

On June 4th at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the company’s Mark-0 microreactor achieved initial zero-power fueled criticality under the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot Program. 

When a reactor goes critical, it is experiencing a self-sustaining chain reaction of fissioning uranium atoms inside of its core. A zero-power fueled criticality means the reactor was taken critical at an extremely low power level to prevent any heat production or significant radiation and facilitate data collection. 

It is the first advanced reactor to hit that mark in the program and the first privately developed non-light-water reactor to reach criticality in the United States in more than four decades.

This is not another rendering or licensing milestone:

  • Fission happened
  • Ahead of schedule

We have been tracking the microreactor industry’s rapid evolution across multiple articles. The handful of developers positioning under the new DOE fast-track authorities created by President Trump’s May 2025 executive orders

In early April we detailed Antares securing the first-ever Documented Safety Analysis approval for an advanced reactor under DOE-STD-1271, which is a regulatory green light viewed as equivalent to an NRC license for their test reactor. 

We covered their selection for the Air Force’s Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations program at Joint Base San Antonio. And just last week we reported on their groundbreaking multi-year commercial HALEU supply agreement with Urenco, the first long-term commercial contract of its kind, securing fuel for scale beyond limited government allocations.

Today’s criticality is the concrete payoff from that string of updates.

The Mark-0 demonstration validates key reactor physics and overall system performance for Antares’ broader R1 transportable microreactor design. The unit is sized for 100 kWe to 1 MWe, with a targeted refueling interval of more than six years, factory-fabricated modularity, and high-temperature heat pipes. 

It uses TRISO fuel fabricated by BWX Technologies, drawing directly on the fuel specification and manufacturing work matured under the Department of Defense’s Project Pele military microreactor program. The U.S. Army was integrated throughout as a future end user.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright called it fitting on the eve of the nation’s 250th anniversary: the first new privately developed non-light-water reactor criticality in America in over 40 years. Assistant Secretary Ted Garrish noted the skeptics who doubted the Reactor Pilot Program could deliver criticality in less than a year. ANS President Mark Peters congratulated the team but correctly framed criticality as “a starting line, not a finish line.”

U.S. Chief Technology Officer Dr. Ethan Klein was a little more enthusiastic

Antares CEO Jordan Bramble on making history: “Hitting our commitments is everything to us. Nuclear in America has been defined for too long by delays, by companies that said they would and then didn’t. We said criticality in 2026, electricity production in 2027, and power to the warfighter in 2028. Today is the first of those commitments delivered on the schedule we set.”

The company went from concept to a critical reactor safely in less than 12 months. 

Criticality is the starting line. But for the first time in a long time, that line just got crossed on a credible, aggressive timeline rather than a bureaucratic one. The microreactor race has a clear early leader in execution. The question now is whether the rest of the industry and the policy apparatus treat this as the new baseline, or simply another headline before the next round of delays sets in.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 13:20

New Footage Reveals Ford Carrier Damage Far More Severe Than Pentagon Acknowledged

New Footage Reveals Ford Carrier Damage Far More Severe Than Pentagon Acknowledged

Newly surfaced footage obtained by CNN indicates that a severe fire aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford – the world’s largest aircraft carrier – inflicted far more extensive damage than the Trump administration initially admitted to the public.

Early in the conflict it was forced to depart Mideast regional waters and retreat West in the Mediterranean, before undergoing extensive repairs at port in Croatia. Pundits were skeptical of official explanations, which suggested an accidental fire was sparked in the laundry room aboard the giant vessel.

US Navy file: Ford carrier

The major blaze erupted in March at a moment Iran claimed to have directly hit US naval vessels, but crisis was consistently downplayed by Pentagon officials at the time.

The obtained video reveals severely destroyed sleeping quarters, showing sailors’ bunks entirely reduced to charred, twisted metal. The ceiling directly above the berthing areas appears completely gutted by the intense flames, while exposed wiring hangs from overhead and thick ash blankets the floor.

One sailor and eyewitness stationed on board the aircraft carrier told CNN: “I seriously thought we were going to lose the ship. It’s either fight or die.”

This doesn’t sound like some localized fire in a small compartment, but a massive emergency – which as we now now derailed the Ford’s ongoing Iran mission in CENTCOM regional waters.

According to prior revealed details, it took the carrier’s crew approximately 30 hours of continuous damage control to fully extinguish the fire, clear out the wreckage, and importantly prevent the fire from reigniting. Some

600 sailors were displaced and left without access to their standard bunks, it had been revealed soon after the event took place.

While the definitive cause of the fire remains unclear, Tehran has claimed responsibility, asserting it successfully targeted the premier American aircraft carrier.

Again, this has fueled widespread speculation that the Iranian account could be accurate, given the Pentagon is known to have downplayed other instances where significant military hardware came under fire.

Prior reporting has also underscored that the blaze actually hindered combat operations against Iran. The incident has been confirmed to have resulted in a complete halt to two days of combat operations. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle, had described two months ago, “They fought that, put it out, and started flying sorties two days after that, so I’m very proud of that crew.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 12:40

Morgan Stanley Projects SpaceX Revenue Hitting Stratospheric $3.4 Trillion In 2040, $2.7 Trillion In EBITDA

Morgan Stanley Projects SpaceX Revenue Hitting Stratospheric $3.4 Trillion In 2040, $2.7 Trillion In EBITDA

Yesterday we shared a forensic analysis of the mechanics of the $75 billion SpaceX IPO and how to trade it, while specifically saying we are leaving the fundamentals aside. The reason for that is that the historicals of the company are, to put it mildly, problematic when it comes to projecting how the company grows into a multi-trillion behemoth. 

As a reminder, SpaceX posted revenue of just under $20 billion for the LTM period, with approximately $6 billion EBITDA and loss of $4 billion, virtually all driven by the conglomerate’s Connectivity (Starlink) division and to a lesser extend, the Launch Services division. Solid numbers on their own, but do they justify a $1.75 trillion in valuation?

So how exactly does SpaceX get from here to there? 

We got the answer this morning courtesy of the WSJ which got its hands on an analysis shared by Morgan Stanley with top investors. 

Needless to say, to support the $1.77 trillion valuation Elon Musk’s SpaceX is targeting in its IPO, bankers are telling investors to look to the future…. far into the future. 

Morgan Stanley projects that SpaceX’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion in 2040. The bank told investors the rocket maker’s adjusted EBITDA in 2040 could top $2.7 trillion, or a largely unheard of 80% EBITDA margin.

Some more details: the WSJ also notes that sellside analysts at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both projected SpaceX’s revenue would be near $160 billion in 2028, up from $20 billion currently. Goldman estimated that the rocket company’s revenue would exceed $470 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected it would reach nearly $330 billion. Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect SpaceX to have adjusted EBITDA of around $110 billion in 2028 and $352 billion and $230 billion, respectively, in 2030. 

Using these data, we have charted how SpaceX revenue and EBITDA would have to grow (assuming a 2028 baseline of $160BN in revenue and $110 billion in EBITDA). The projection is… aggressive.

To get to those stratospheric – no pun intended – levels, both banks anticipate revenue from SpaceX’s AI business to provide the bulk of the revenue after this year and grow dramatically. Goldman projected that unit would contribute around $322 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected around $190 billion that year. SpaceX reported revenue from its nascent AI division of $3.2 billion in 2025.

How realistic are these assumptions? Some thoughts from Brandon Carl, who writes that the MS forecast would require 14% US GDP growth over 14 years . The long-term average is 6.5%.:

“Most Successful Company Ever” Assumptions

  • SpaceX commands 5% of US corporate profits
  • Corporate profits become 15% of GDP, by far a record

Implications

  • Total US corporate profits = $54 trillion
  • US GDP = $205 trillion
  • 14 year US GDP growth rate = 14%

“Still Aggressive” Assumptions

  • SpaceX commands 2% of corporate profits
  • Corporate profits are 10% of GDP, historically high
  • Then US GDP = $770 trillion growing at 26%

Assume that EBITDA is about 1.75x profits, so profits = $1.54 trillion.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley are certainly redefining the hockeystick when it comes to the SpaceX IPO: the two banks snagged the top two roles out of the 21 banks on SpaceX’s IPO, putting their banks in line to get the biggest shares of the hundreds of millions of dollars of fees. Which is why if for whatever reason the IPO bombs or fails to launch they stand to lose the most.

So will people “buy” these ludicrous projections? Well, according to Bloomberg, with one week left to go until the actual IPO, the offering is already oversubscribed.

  • *SPACEX IPO IS SAID TO DRAW MORE ORDERS THAN SHARES AVAILABLE

This means that the deal will almost certainly price at Musk’s desired offering price of $135. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 12:05

Micro-Cap ‘War Unicorn’ Merlin Soars After Advancing AI Pilot For C-130 Military Plane

Micro-Cap ‘War Unicorn’ Merlin Soars After Advancing AI Pilot For C-130 Military Plane

Aerospace and defense technology firm Merlin jumped in premarket trading after announcing that its AI-powered autonomous flight software for the C-130J Super Hercules cargo plane, developed with U.S. Special Operations Command, is moving toward formal testing.

Merlin wrote in a press release earlier that its AI-powered autonomous flight software has “successfully completed” the critical design review for the C-130J, adding the “milestone positions the program to enter a structured formal test campaign, including aircraft-level testing, reflecting a disciplined systems engineering progression from design through verification.”

The Merlin AI Pilot will automate flight operations for the C-130J from takeoff to touchdown and is framed as an “operating system” for autonomous aviation.

The C-130 is the workhorse cargo plane of the U.S. military. The upgraded version, by slapping a “J” on the end, includes:

  • Newer turboprop engines

  • Six-blade composite propellers

  • Digital cockpit and avionics

  • Reduced crew requirements

  • Better range, climb, speed, and fuel efficiency than older C-130s

Shares of the micro-cap defense company jumped 28% in premarket trading.

Merlin also pointed out that it is “rapidly advancing its AI-powered autonomy stack onboard the C-130J, with potential pathways for expansion across other Department of War or commercial aviation platforms.”

The rise of “war unicorns” has been an important theme this year as the Department of War resets its procurement program toward startups and away from big legacy primes.

Goldman analysts also recognize the rise of defense startups and sat down with Palmer Luckey’s Anduril earlier this week. Read the note here.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 11:50

ISS Astronauts Told To Prepare For Possible Evacuation As Air Leak Worsens

ISS Astronauts Told To Prepare For Possible Evacuation As Air Leak Worsens

NASA senior adviser and press secretary Bethany Stevens wrote on X that astronauts aboard the International Space Station have quickly shifted into SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft and are prepared to evacuate if needed, after cracks and leaks in the Zvezda service module transfer tunnel appeared to worsen.

“The Zvezda service module transfer tunnel, known as PrK, has suffered from cracks and leaks for some time, and has been mitigated by Roscosmos as much as possible to date. The cracks have always been a concern that NASA watches very closely,” Stevens said.

According to NASA, the Zvezda service module is 43 feet long and contains living quarters, life support systems, communications systems, electrical power distribution systems, data processing systems, flight control systems, and propulsion systems.

Stevens continued, “The cracks have always been a concern that NASA watches very closely. NASA and Roscosmos have been working to determine the root cause of the cracks, and Roscosmos manages the issue through operational mitigation measures and periodic partial-repair efforts.”

Out of caution, NASA ordered all four SpaceX Crew-12 members, along with NASA astronaut Chris Williams, to be on high alert inside Dragon during the repair.

NASA said it continues to work with Roscosmos and other station partners toward a more permanent fix for the long-running issue.

Reuters cited a senior NASA official who said the air leak has been monitored over the last few months but significantly worsened earlier this week, increasing from a loss of one pound of air per day to two pounds per day.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 11:20

The Atomic Crab

The Atomic Crab

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

The Atomic Crab

The Dow Jones hit a fresh all-time high yesterday, surging 1.73% to close at 51,562. The S&P500 posted more modest gains while the NASDAQ closed slightly lower as investors rotated out of some growth-oriented tech names and back towards healthcare and financials with more of a value or cyclical flavor.

Treasuries traded in a narrow range to close with yields little changed, while European sovereigns mostly saw modest declines in yields with the slightest hint of bull steepening evident in some curves. The Bloomberg Dollar spot index was down slightly but is inching higher again in early trade this morning.

Oil markets continue to be a point of focus. Front-month Brent futures closed 2.84% lower yesterday as markets remain of a Pollyanna state of mind over the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Dated Brent went the other way to post a (very) small gain yesterday after a 3.61% lift on Wednesday. The Singapore gasoil for spot delivery index was down 4.45% to $136.57/bbl.

Scuttlebutt over the status of US-Iran peace talks continued to dominate headlines yesterday. Following Donald Trump’s announcement of a Israel/Lebanon ceasefire that was contingent on Hezbollah ceasing its attacks on Israel we had confirmation this morning that Hezbollah has no intention of halting strikes. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem made a statement on Thursday saying that “as long as the occupation exists, the resistance will continue” and calling the negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel “absurd, humiliating and shameful.”

For Israel’s part, defence minister Katz has said that Israeli attacks in Southern Lebanon will continue and that the IDF will maintain “freedom of action” including in Beirut – which has been a red line for the Americans. Benjamin Netanyahu has recently faced criticism at home for being seen to be too compliant with American demands over strikes in Lebanon. Netanyahu faces an election in October, which polling suggests he may lose. Peace on all fronts was an Iranian condition precedent for reopening Hormuz and commencing the 60-day nuclear talks, but it seems that neither belligerent is interested.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s language on the Iran peace talks has gone from “deal imminent”, to “a deal soon, maybe” to “actually, we really don’t need a deal”. Trump showed signs of crabwalking away from a key demand that Iran hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium by saying that he does not need a deal with Iran to secure the uranium, but that there was no reason to send US troops into Iran to do so because the uranium is “entombed”.

Regular readers will recall that RaboResearch updated our Iran war baseline forecast two weeks ago to say that we didn’t think a meaningful deal would stick in the short term, and that the Strait of Hormuz would consequently remain functionally closed until September at least. The incompatibility of the two parties’ nuclear demands was a key factor in this judgement, so it is significant that Trump is now showing hints of softening his position on this point. However, capitulation on the highly enriched uranium or the limits of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program shifts the needle back towards US strategic defeat, with potentially grave consequences for all who have prospered under 80-years of Pax Americana.

We noted here yesterday that Bloomberg had reported that the IAEA had published a restricted document arguing that the nuclear risk posed by Iran is now higher than it was prior to the war. Subsequently, Bloomberg has reported that Iran has permitted IAEA monitors to inspect its Bushehr nuclear plant within the last week, but that Iran has steadfastly refused to comply with requests to verify the condition and location of its highly enriched uranium.

Needless to say, while the US-Iran stalemate continues global oil and oil products stocks continue to run down towards dangerously low levels. Vitol board member Tom Baker recently said that the oil trader estimated global demand destruction at about 4 million barrels a day, mostly from emerging Asia and Africa. China alone has reportedly reduced daily imports by close to 4 million barrels, while strategic reserve releases coordinated by the IEA have also been running close to 4 million barrels a day.

It’s not entirely clear whether or not there is some double counting in the Vitol estimates and China import drop-off, but the back of the napkin calculation gets us somewhere close to the ~12mbbl/day estimated supply loss from the Hormuz closure, and goes some way toward explaining why oil prices have remained remarkably low. Nevertheless, this remains a stocks to flows problem, and the cracks cannot be papered over indefinitely without supply tightness also being felt materially in developed markets.

While China’s reduction in oil imports helps planet earth rebalance energy flows, movements are afoot in Australia to counter Chinese monopsony power over the iron ore trade. China recently formed the state-owned China Mineral Resources Group to coordinate purchases of iron ore cargoes for China’s steel industry and exert market power to ensure that suppliers are paid in CNY, rather than USD. Australian firms supply more than 50% of global iron ore, but those firms have seen their market power eroded by alternative supply coming online in west Africa and an inability to coordinate to counter Chinese market power.

The Australian Financial Review this morning reports overtures from iron ore majors to the Australian government to counter monopsony buying power and give producers more say over how much they are paid and in which currency. Could we see state-backed single desk iron ore marketing in the land down under? Australia’s second-closest neighbour Indonesia recently did just that for coal, palm oil and ferroalloys, and has the world’s largest reserves of nickel – a critical input for Chinese stainless steel and EV battery production.

Elsewhere, there are again renewed hopes for peace prospects in Ukraine as Kyiv’s long-range drone strikes continue to cause havoc deep inside Russia. Vladimir Putin’s St Petersburg International Economic Forum (a kind of Davos for dictators) was recently interrupted by Ukrainian drone strikes on nearby Russian oil infrastructure – prompting Putin to vow that Russia will bolster its defenses against Ukrainian air attacks.

At the same time, Russia’s spring/summer offensive appears to have stalled and news outlets are reporting that Putin is signalling openness to a compromise on Ukraine in line with discussions held with President Trump in Alaska. Putin says that Ukraine needs to accept those compromises, but might there be some wiggle room for Ukraine to extract a better deal given the changed battlefield calculus? For his part, Zelenskyy is pushing for face-to-face talks with Putin to reach peace terms, but Putin says that he will only meet once terms have already been agreed, and that he will only meet in a neutral third-party country, which rules out EU member states in his view.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 10:55

Peace Talks Stall: U.S. Denies Iranian Claims Of Warning Shots At Destroyers

Peace Talks Stall: U.S. Denies Iranian Claims Of Warning Shots At Destroyers

Summary:

  • U.S. CENTCOM Denies Report 
  • Iran Military Fires “Warning Missiles” At US Destroyers In Gulf of Oman
  • Iran FM Warns American Bases Are Legitimate Targets, Cites ‘No Tangible Progress’ In Talks

Polymarket 

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 25% · No 76%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 18% · No 83%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Iran Military Fires “Warning Missiles” At US Destroyers In Gulf of Oman

AFP is reporting that Iranian military forces fired “warning missiles” at two U.S. Navy destroyers transiting the Gulf of Oman, citing Iranian state media.

“In continuation of operations to counter maritime misconduct and harassment, as well as the hijacking of commercial vessels and oil tankers by the terrorist naval forces of the United States, following the firing of warning missiles, the hostile destroyers DDG-103 and DDG-8 have left the Gulf of Oman towards the Indian Ocean,” Iranian military forces wrote in a statement published by state news agency IRNA.

Meanwhile…

  • US DENIES REPORT IRAN ATTACKED OR FIRED AT US NAVAL SHIPS

Most Important Headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Military Confrontation

  • Iran’s army fired warning shots using Qadir missiles and drones at two US Navy destroyers (DDG-103 and DDG-87) in the Sea of Oman on Friday, forcing them to retreat to the northern Indian Ocean, according to Iranian military statements
  • Iran fired missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain on Wednesday, killing one person and injuring dozens at Kuwait’s main airport, after the US struck an oil tanker headed to Iran

Peace Talks

  • The US and Iran have made little progress in talks over an interim peace deal this week, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying no tangible progress has been achieved
  • President Trump said ceasefire talks are in the ‘final’ stages despite the stalled negotiations
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister dismissed the idea of Supreme Leader meeting Trump after the US president expressed openness to such a meeting

U.S. Congressional Opposition

  • The Republican-led House voted 215-208 on Wednesday to halt the US war with Iran, breaking with President Trump
  • Trump called the House vote against the Iran war ‘meaningless’ and ‘unpatriotic’ in a Truth Social post

Regional Impact

  • Lebanon’s Prime Minister told Iran to stop treating the country as a ‘bargaining chip’ on Friday
  • Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered truce proposal in Lebanon, though attacks on northern Israel have eased
  • The US said Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah stopping attacks and evacuating operatives from southern Lebanon

Nuclear

  • Iran permitted UN atomic watchdog monitors to visit its Bushehr nuclear power plant this week while stonewalling inspectors’ demands to verify its enriched uranium stockpile.

Iran FM Warns American Bases Are Legitimate Targets, Cites ‘No Tangible Progress’ In Talks

At a moment it’s become more than clear that the US and Iran are not anywhere closer to the negotiating table, and after they’ve shown little progress after a week of clashes – as one Friday morning Bloomberg headline reads, Tehran has again putting US bases in the region on notice, while admitting “no tangible progress” in negotiations on ending the conflict.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in fresh remarks has said that “standing against the world’s greatest power, equipped with nuclear weapons, for 40 days is no joke,” and that “the world has realized the true power of the Iranian nation.”

Araghchi also again issued a direct warning to regional Gulf states: “We warned regional states that US bases used for any aggression against Iran are legitimate targets” – he was quoted Friday by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) as saying.

File image: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi 

However, the Iranian foreign minister also cautioned that there is a way forward, stressing that despite conflict, “We are committed to fostering sustainable, constructive ties with Saudi Arabia.”

The war is fast approaching the 100-day milestone, which comes Sunday, since Trump first initiated his Operation Epic Fury. He had in the opening ‘assured’ the American public of only a short conflict lasting but a few days or weeks.

Iran’s supreme leader too has been signaling defiance while apparently in hiding, saying that the US and Israel had been dealt a “decisive blow”

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s message was read out by a prayer leader at a ceremony marking the anniversary of the death of the Islamic republic’s founder on Thursday:

In his message, Khamenei said his country’s enemies, after “facing a decisive blow,” were now “experiencing a deeply meaningful and profound humiliation.”

He went on to accuse them of seeking to “plant the seeds of doubt, despair, fear, mistrust and division” among the public, calling for unity to “neutralize their sinister plot.”

Tehran is still seeking to integrate the Lebanon situation into a broader US-Iran peace deal. But in Lebanon itself, sporadic fighting has raged despite declaration of a ceasefire – of which Hezbollah has declared itself not part of.

On Friday, “The Israeli military’s Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee on Friday warned residents of six towns and villages including south Lebanon’s Sarafand, a town on the coastal road between Tyre and Sidon, to immediately evacuate,” according to CBS.

More reports of mystery explosions in Strait of Hormuz, off Oman…

“Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported mass displacement from the three villages named in the warning, and it subsequently reported a strike on one of the villages, Arqoun,” the report continues.

And Al Jazeera also reports Friday that “Israel’s deadly strikes continue across Lebanon, killing at least six today, despite the announcement of a new US-brokered ceasefire agreed between Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington, DC.”

The public is increasingly pessimistic that a ceasefire can be achieved anytime soon, even as Trump has seemed to soften on the issue of retrieving highly enriched uranium: US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 09:45

ZEC Crashes As Zcash Admits ‘Critical Counterfeiting Vulnerability’ Exposed By Claude

ZEC Crashes As Zcash Admits ‘Critical Counterfeiting Vulnerability’ Exposed By Claude

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

The price of ZEC fell on Thursday after further details were disclosed of a critical counterfeiting vulnerability in Zcash’s Orchard pool that could theoretically allow a bad actor to mint an unlimited amount of ZEC.

According to a post on X, security engineer Taylor Hornby, who was engaged by Shielded Labs, discovered the bug on May 29 and disclosed it to the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), which deployed an emergency response to fix the vulnerability with a hard fork activated on June 3. 

However, there are new concerns about the extent to which the vulnerability, which has existed since May 2022, has been used, leading Zcash to fall more than 30% over the past 24 hours to $410 at the time of writing. Its market capitalization has shrunk by more than $3 billion.

However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said on Friday it is unlikely that ZEC has been illegally minted this way, though he acknowledged “it cannot be formally cryptographically proved impossible.”

“Sadly, due to the Orchard Pool exploit, I had to dump our entire ZEC bag,” he said.

“The Holy Trinity is dead,” he added, referring to Zcash and the two other tokens he sold this week, Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Near Protocol (NEAR).

ZEC crashes almost 50% in 24 hours after two months of solid gains. 

Claude assists in bug discovery 

Taylor used Claude Opus 4.8, which was released on May 28, a day before the discovery, to assist in a highly targeted review of the Orchard circuit, the cryptographic component underlying Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool.

The critical bug allowed false inputs into an elliptic curve multiplication check, which means the math that is supposed to cryptographically verify transactions could be fooled.

Taylor built and tested a working exploit, which generated unlimited counterfeit ZEC. 

“If he had run the same tool on Zcash mainnet it would have generated unlimited, undetectable counterfeit ZEC in his mainnet Zcash wallet,” the security researchers said on Friday. 

The primary concern is that there is no cryptographic way to prove whether anyone had previously exploited it before it was patched, due to Orchard’s privacy properties. 

However, Shielded Labs was “not overly concerned” because the bug was subtle enough to evade years of expert review, and the discovery was a deliberate, highly skilled effort using cutting-edge tools and AI.

The firm is working with Zcash developers on a proposed network upgrade to allow anyone to verify the integrity of the ZEC supply and to prove the nonexistence of counterfeit tokens in the Orchard pool, they stated. 

Not the first counterfeiting vulnerability for Zcash

Mert Mumtaz, co-founder and CEO of Solana tooling firm Helius, said that almost all privacy protocols have a variant of this same vulnerability. 

“This same FUD comes back every five months as new people learn how privacy pools work,” he said. 

He explained that it is a theoretical risk in most zero-knowledge privacy protocols from circuit bugs that are hard to exploit or detect.

This is not the first time a similar vulnerability in Zcash has been discovered. In 2018, a counterfeiting vulnerability in the cryptography underlying zk-proofs was discovered by the Electric Coin Company, which remediated it with no losses in 2019. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/05/2026 – 09:20