Powell Pivot Sparks Buying Panic In Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion As Dollar Dumps To 2024 Lows
With seven little words, Fed Chair Powell unleashed some chaos today as he confirmed “time has come for policy to adjust” and rate-cut expectations adjusted dovishly (though we note they were pretty much fully priced for this after the Minutes).
September rate-cut expectations rose to 32bps (so around a 1/3rd chance of 50bps, 2/3 chance of 25bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
2024 rate-cut expectations lifted to 104bps (just over 4 full cuts – well above the single-cut according to The Fed’s Dot-Plot) and 213bps thru the end of 2025…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold, bonds, and stocks rallied while the dollar tumbled…
Source: Bloomberg
The instant bid in stocks only really held in Small Caps…
…thanks to a huge short-squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar crashed to 2024 lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields tumbled, led by the short-end today (2Y -10bps, 30Y -2bps) and down 14bps on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y yield snapped back below 4.00% and the curve (2s30s) pushed notably steeper…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin blasted off on the Powell headlines, setting the scene for the big short-squeeze we have discussed and testing $64,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude oil prices also surged, bouncing further off those early August lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that five of the six Powell Jackson Hole speeches saw the S&P 500 drop 7.5% on average in the next three months…
Source: Bloomberg
…and The Fed will begin cutting rates with the MSCI All-World Stocks Index at an all-time record high!!!
Talk about irony: The FBI, which was willing to use deadly force over Donald Trump allegedly mishandling classified documents, has been systematically mishandling similar information for years, according to bombshell findings released Thursday by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz.
The DOJ-IG said it discovered the FBI’s mishandling of classified information while auditing a contract related to how the bureau destroys electronics containing “sensitive-but-unclassified” information, as well as classified national security information.
According to Horowitz’s audit, the FBI labels computers that handle such information when it sends them to a facility to be destroyed. However, it does not label internal hard drives extracted from those computers. The FBI also doesn’t properly track thumb drives and disk drives containing information of varying classification levels, according to Horowitz.
Compounding the security risk is the fact that those unmarked internal hard drives, thumb drives and disk drives often end up in a physically unsecured warehouse.
Horowitz said that when his staff visited an FBI “Media Destruction Team” facility last October, they found “non-accountable” hard drives and other electronic storage devices sitting in an open pallet-sized box. Horowitz said he’s not disclosing details about the facility since it’s not secured.
“A [property-turn-in] staff member told us that the pallet for the loose media was unsecured for extended periods, sometimes spanning days or even weeks because PTI would wrap the pallets and move them to the Facility shelves only when the box reached full capacity,” the Inspector General said.
During the same visit last October, Horowitz said his staff also found a container from January 2022 that identified its contents as “non-accountable.”
“Notably, the container’s shrink wrapping was torn, and boxes inside were visibly open and contained hard drives marked Secret,” he said.
BREAKING: The DOJ-IG has found that the FBI systematically mishandled TROVES of classified information.
Pictured below is an FBI storage facility. The camera above the door doesn’t work, and the doors were kept open at all hours — allowing non-authorized personnel access to… pic.twitter.com/QRbvU8FPcy
Horowitz added that after his team spotted the box, the FBI’s Asset Management Unit “promptly secured” it with additional shrink wrap. However, the FBI’s PTI supervisor and contractor told Horowitz that they would not be aware if someone was to take hard drives from the pallets because these assets are not counted or otherwise tracked.
According to the DOJ-IG, at least 395 people have access to the FBI’s unsecured facility as of May, including 28 task force officers and 63 contractors from at least 17 companies.
“There is no physical barrier preventing FBI and non-FBI personnel and contractors from other Facility operations from accessing PTI’s work area and the pallets of unsanitized assets in the Facility shelving space,” he said.
And even though there is apparently a door to the Media Destruction Team’s work area, the FBI doesn’t close it to prevent non-Asset Management Unit personnel from accessing the area, the IG found.
If all those security failures weren’t enough, Horowitz also said one of the key surveillance cameras at the facility wasn’t working when his team visited. The FBI apparently told Horowitz last December that it was installing a new camera there, but it still wasn’t in place when the DOJ-IG made a follow-up visit in February.
“We believe that the combination of the FBI’s lack of accountability of the electronic storage media, lack of internal physical access control, and lack of sufficient video surveillance compounds the risk of media, potentially with sensitive and classified information, being lost or stolen without detection,” Horowitz concluded.
It appears as if the problems identified by Horowitz have been around for almost a decade, if not longer.
During his investigation, Horowitz said his staff determined that an interim accreditation was granted in 2015, but had expired in March 2016. An accredited open-storage secure area is a space with reinforced construction in which classified materials, up to and including at the Secret collateral level, may be stored.
“Following our observations, the FBI performed a site visit in November 2023 to confirm the remediation of the security enhancements required from a 2015 open storage inspection checklist. The FBI granted the Facility its final open storage accreditation in January 2024,” he said.
“The FBI stated that the lack of final accreditation was an administrative oversight and that enhancements had been completed in the interim. However, the FBI could not provide evidence of when the required enhancements were completed.”
FBI whistleblower Greg Roman told Headline USA that the label “Classified National Security Information” indicates some of the FBI’s unsecured boxes potentially contained Top Secret information.
“Second, it appears the location of this facility warehousing these hard drives, flash drives, floppy disks ie external media is located in Cheverly, MD just outside of Washington DC: Does that mean FBI offices from across the country were sending this ‘stuff’ to an undisclosed FBI facility near DC for proper destruction?” Roman added.
“That might indicate why none of was marked.”
The IG said his audit is still ongoing, but he wanted to alert the FBI about its problems so they can fix them promptly. The IG made a series of recommendations for how the FBI could improve its security and disposal procedures, and the bureau agreed with them all—such as placing its boxes of non-accountable hard drives inside secure cages at the warehouse.
Ten Years After Prop 47, California Goes Full Circle And Starts Fighting Retail Crime
It’s called blowback: several years after California passed Proposition 47, which reclassified felony theft offenses as misdemeanors and effectively greenlit shoplifting of items below $950, the retail industry had had enough, and the same state that idiotically tried to give minorities a back-handed reparation by encouraging their petty theft (with the tongue-in-cheek promise of not prosecuting it), the state has seen countless retailers flee, social cohesion collapse, crime explode and after a decade of Prop 47, the circle is complete as California just enacted a package of bills to fight the very same retail crime it initially encouraged.
As RetailDive reports, with governor Gavin Newsom’s signing of a package of 10 bills last week, California has a new suite of tools to fight organized retail crime and other property theft, while holding on to criminal justice reforms that the governor says have clamped down on recidivism and saved the state billions.
According to Newsom, the California Retailers Association was instrumental in developing the package and getting it to his desk, or, more accurately, a makeshift work surface set up at a Home Depot location in San Jose. CRA President Rachel Michelin, speaking alongside the governor and several other stakeholders, said work on the legislation was cooperative, but that the problem was brought to legislative leaders and law enforcement by retailers.
“We worked collaboratively. And I’ll say I was able to rethink the way I approach this issue, and I think I was able to have them rethink how they approach this issue,” Michelin said. “Retailers have never been about mass incarceration or that type of mentality. We’ve always wanted to be part of the solution.”
The new legislation tackles not just retail theft, but also other property theft and damage, including auto theft. Broadly speaking, related to retail crime, the law focuses on online marketplaces and repeat offenders, gives law enforcement and prosecutors more leeway and puts cargo theftin focus.
The National Retail Federation and Retail Industry Leaders Association, which have both focused on retail crime in recent years, declined to comment on the new laws, referring Retail Dive to the CRA.
Prosecutors can bundle the value of stolen property from different retailers or jurisdictions to reach the $950 “felony grand theft” threshold. Thefts and related offenses from different counties can be tried together.
A person can be arrested for shoplifting even if an officer didn’t witness the act.
Probation for shoplifting or petty theft is extended from one year to two.
Courts can issue “retail theft restraining orders” that would ban anyone “convicted of organized retail theft, shoplifting, theft, vandalism, or assault of a retail employee from entering the establishment for up to two years.”
Retailers can’t be cited or fined for repeated theft reports.
Anyone “possessing more than $950 of stolen goods with intent to sell, exchange, or return the goods” now faces up to three years in jail, and prosecutors needn’t prove the defendants knew those goods were stolen.
Sentencing is enhanced for “large-scale resale of property.”
Online marketplaces must collect information on “high-volume third-party sellers.”
The state’s existing organized retail theft law and its regional property crimes task forces, which were scheduled to sunset, were made permanent.
Cargo theft, as related to retail crime, now includes railroads, according to Michelin.
“All of these things in this package is going to help retailers, law enforcement and district attorneys be able to provide the consequences for the behaviors that we need to make sure people don’t continue doing this behavior, which is what we’ve always needed,” Michelin said.
The detail gaining the most attention —and even some notoriety in the 2024 presidential election — is that California now categorizes thefts of goods worth less than $950 as misdemeanors.
And the punchline: Prop 36 would recategorize lower-level thefts as a felony for people with prior convictions and allow for more extensive prison sentences.
From boarded-up businesses and torn-down fences, to flag-burnings, bomb threats and bloody assaults, to hecklers forcing an early wrap on Nancy Pelosi’s interview with Stephen Colbert, the unrest in Chicago during the Democratic National Convention has been a maelstrom of festering chaos befitting of the party that birthed it with reckless social experiments, identity politics and tacit support for terrorists.
🔵 Protest gets bloody
A protestor had to be treated after getting into an altercation with another protestor after a rally.
While the maggots may have come home to roost, making life uncomfortable for Democrat elites as they celebrate a successful intra-party coup d’état, one would hardly know from reading accounts of the DNC gathering in most mainstream media outlets.
Unlike the 1968 Democrat convention in Chicago, where the counterculture anti-war protests took center-stage (and ultimately helped Richard Nixon win in a landslide), the Left now controls most of the levers of power and major institutions in America, aggressively enacting a tight lockdown on unauthorized narratives as if it were a COVID-era Tim Walz.
Many mainstream media outlets have opted to remain silent about the violent clashes. But with counternarratives beginning to leak on social media, it fell on the propagandist Associated Press to report that there was nothing to see here.
The AP’s 256-word dispatch on Thursday, which included three bylined authors, bordered on comical in its belaboring of the “mostly peaceful protest” trope, repeating the word “peaceful” five times—or one reference per every 51.2 words. (For context, that is roughly the same number as the paragraph you are now reading.)
The pro-Palestinian puff piece echoed an embarrassing segment during the 2020 George Floyd riots in Minneapolis—when MSNBC’s Ali Velshi insisted that, despite the massive conflagration raging behind him, “it is not, generally speaking, unruly.”
.@AliVelshi reports from Minneapolis where multiple fires have broken out amid protests following the death of George Floyd.
In the aftermath of the Biden presidency, however, many have now wisened to the Left’s refusal to hold itself accountable—morally or otherwise—for the inevitable consequences of its rhetoric and policies.
While the emboldened media has gone on to gaslight about other significant-yet-politically-inconvenient episodes—most recently including the declining mental acuity of President Joe Biden and the apotheosis of his replacement, Kamala Harris, atop the 2024 ticket—its efforts have seen diminishing returns, forcing many once-revered news outlets to cut their staffs or shutter altogether.
The phenomenon itself helped propel the term “gaslighting” into the common vernacular, even earning it a distinction as Merriam–Webster’s 2022 “word of the year.”
And it has given rise to new memes in the conservative X-osphere, including the now-iconic phrase “Let’s go, Brandon”—which is more a commentary on the complicit media running interference for the Democratic power structure than it is a specific condemnation of the Biden administration.
How it Started…Talladega Superspeedway: Brandon Brown had just won a NASCAR race. And sportscaster Kelli Stavast commented in an interview with Brown afterward how the crowd seemed to be chanting in his honor: ‘Let’s go, Brandon!” https://t.co/BlRcn7O4f1pic.twitter.com/7GeRL1SiO2
— Zen Diamond Apartments Newslink (@apartments_zen) November 3, 2021
Yet, ridicule notwithstanding, the danger of Democrats’ denialism and willful ignorance is quite real and ever-more palpable, shattering the lives of many who fall in the path of the Left’s long march, while ominously portending an even bleaker future should its efforts succeed.
As part of our ongoing effort to expose blatant media bias at leftist media outlets, the AP’s complete, unedited story on Chicago’s unrest is included below:
Chicago police say they’re ready for final day of protests at DNC following night of no arrests
(Associated Press) Chicago police said Thursday that they are not changing any of their tactics and are ready for a final night of pro-Palestinian demonstrations outside the Democratic National Convention, after a peaceful march that resulted in no injuries or arrests.
On Wednesday night, more than 2,000 pro-Palestinian protesters marched peacefully past a park where pro-Israel demonstrators had gathered earlier. That demonstration came a day after violent clashes between police and protesters led to 56 arrests at a much smaller, unsanctioned protest outside the Israeli Consulate in downtown Chicago.
Police Superintendent Larry Snelling said the protest Wednesday night ended without arrests and that no one was injured.
Snelling praised the organizers of the Wednesday protest, saying it’s an example of how people can hold First Amendment-protected demonstrations peacefully by collaborating in advance with law enforcement.
“Did we have a couple dustups? Sure, but those things were quickly rectified,” he said.
The biggest protest so far, which attracted about 3,500 people on Monday, was largely peaceful and resulted in 13 arrests, most related to a breach of security fencing. They did not gain access to the inner security perimeter at the United Center, where the convention is taking place.
Two people were arrested Sunday night during another mostly peaceful march.
The Coalition to March on the DNC, which organized the march on Monday, planned its second permitted demonstration of the week on Thursday, with a rally in a park near the United Center followed by a march through adjacent streets.
Must Watch: RFK Exposes DNC Corruption, Suspends Campaign, Backs Trump In Battleground States
The 2024 presidential election race is about to take its next unexpected turn…
“Democrats have become the party of war, censorship, corruption, big pharma, big tech, big ag, and big money wanting to abandon democracy by canceling the primary to conceal the cognitive decline of the sitting president.
I left the party to run as an independent…
The DNC and its media organs engineered a surge of popularity for VP Harris based upon nothing. No policies, no interviews, no debates. Only smoke and mirrors.”
“A Chicago circus that is based on NOTHING. Who needs a policy if you hate Donald Trump?“
“How did the Democratic Party choose a candidate that has never done an interview or debate during the entire election cycle?” Kennedy asked.
“We know the answer: They did it by weaponizing the government agencies. They did it by abandoning democracy. They did it by suing the opposition and by disenfranchising American voters. What most alarms me isn’t how the Democratic Party conducts its internal affairs or runs its candidates. What alarms me is the resort to censorship and media control and the weaponization of the federal agencies.”
Kennedy refuses to be a spoiler… “Many months ago, I promised the American people that I would withdraw from the race if I became a spoiler… In my heart, I no longer believe that I have a realistic path to electoral victory in the face of this relentless, systematic censorship and media control.”
“I am simply suspending it and not ending it. My name will remain on the ballot in most states.
I encourage you to vote for me.
In an honest system, I believe that I would have won the election.
After all, the polls consistently showed me beating each of the other candidates.
In about 10 battleground states where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m going to remove my name.”
…
I throw my support behind Donald Trump.”
Kennedy said that in a series of meetings with Trump and his team, he realized he shared more in common with the former president than he thought. He compared their potential partnership to President Lincoln’s famous “Team of Rivals,” which saw him stock his Cabinet with former foes.
“I was surprised to discover that we are aligned on many key issues,” Kennedy said.
“In those meetings, he suggested that we join forces as a unity party.”
And the attacks begin: In response to RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump, his family members have issued a strong statement condemning the move:
“Our brother Bobby’s decision to endorse Trump today is a betrayal of the values that our father and our family hold most dear. It is a sad ending to a sad story.”
The Trump campaign just released a memo on RFK Jr dropping out and endorsing the former president.
“As you can clearly see, in every single state RFK Jr.’s vote breaks for President Trump.”
* * *
As we detailed earlier, Robert Kennedy Jr. is expected to suspend his presidential race, and if the rumors are true, he will endorse Donald Trump in a stunning rebuke to the party that is inexorably linked to the legacy of his father and his uncle, brothers Jack and Bobby Kennedy.
It wasn’t enough to reach office but it got his foot in the door after RFK Jr. was shunned by Democrat Party insiders in their initial effort to prop up husk of a president, Joe Biden.
Now they are stuck with Biden’s insurance policy, Kamala Harris.
It terrified the Dems to have RFK Jr. in the running,so they rigged the rules, banned him from state ballots, and vilified him as extreme. And to dampen his impact on the Harris-Walz ticket, after trying to deny him ballot access and remove RFK Jr. from the state ballots he made his way to, Democrats will now attempt to keep him on ballots to hurt Trump.
Such hypocrites.
He’s an environmental attorney, about as Lefty Democrat as you can get! He was expected to capitulate, kiss the crown, and get in line with everyone else. Instead, he went rogue. He showed them by unexpectedly running as an Independent.
In exchange for his potential endorsement, what can Trump promise?
A cabinet post? Being named director of the FBI to clean up that mess? Or ironically, heading up the CIA? Maybe after six decades, we’ll find out exactly what was the role of the agency in assassinating his uncle and if it had any role in his own father’s assassination.
He’s now rumored to be ready to endorse Trump and is expected to announce his campaign suspension in Phoenix, where Trump is scheduled to hold a rally nearby. Coincidence? Unlikely.
If this happens, it will take much of the post-DNC momentum away from Harris-Walz and focus attention on the PR value of RFK Jr.’s endorsement.
Imagine the son of RFK and the nephew of JFK, endorsing a Republican candidate for the presidency, Donald Trump no less.
It will be a net positive gain for Trump, although not much and only for so long. But it could make all the difference in a race that’s expected to be tight in the all-important swing states—especially Pennsylvania.
After spending millions to keep him off the ballot, the Democratic National Committee released a memo Friday dismissing the potential impact Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Donald Trump will have on the presidential race.
The DNC claimed, without evidence, that the only reason Kennedy was in the race was to be a spoiler candidate to help former President Trump, but derided him as “a near-negligible factor” with “no meaningful base of support.”
The DNC memo purported, again without evidence, that Trump was “at a low point and acting out of desperation.”
“Embracing RFK Jr. now —when he has nothing to offer but months of disqualifying revelations—is not a decision a campaign makes when they’re acting from a position of strength.”
The memo went on to accuse RFK Jr. as having an “unsavory and reckless past, ties to MAGA donors, and MAGA-lite positions on abortion bans and January 6th pardons,” and assert that “his support has dwindled to make him a near-negligible factor.”
“The little support that remains is soft, split across ideologies, and disproportionately among lower propensity voters. With no meaningful base of support and sky-high negatives among Democrats, RFK Jr.’s threat to VP Harris was neutralized,” the DNC memo stated.
The DNC memo argued Kennedy could actually hurt Trump because of his allegedly “controversial” positions on the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, the Sept. 11 attacks and vaccines.
From west to east, let’s look at the latest polling, factoring in the impact of the potential Kennedy endorsement factored in, considering how the polls misread the 2016 and 2020 results. Remember that if Trump wins the states he did in 2020 and adds Georgia and Pennsylvania, he’s at the 270 Electoral College votes needed to become the 47th president of the United States. We are also factoring in Harris’s surge in polling in the wake of her anointment after Joe Biden ended his reelection bid. The latest polling and anecdotal analysis indicate that the surge is fading and that the Harris-Walz ticket, especially in the wake of Walz misstating (the way the mainstream media is couching his lies) his personal story. On Thursday afternoon on her podcast, Megyn Kelly ripped Walz apologist Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) a new one in a very contentious interview. That damage on the stolen valor issue has yet to be fully baked into the electoral cake.
(Response bias and Democrat oversampling in many of the polls—most specifically the New York Times/Sienna poll—over the last month radically shifted the polls after Biden ended his campaign.)
We should note that Harris is lagging behind Biden’s polling at this point in 2020 with Black, Latino, and blue-collar voters in all of the crucial swing states.
Nevada: In recent election cycles, Nevada is trending right. With its large hospitality industry voter base in Las Vegas, Trump got out in front of Democrats with his no taxes on tips policy position. It was such a positive move, that it was quickly copied by Harris. But hospitality segment workers are smart enough to realize that Trump is the better choice to look out for their interests. Taking into consideration Trump’s increasing appeal to the state’s Hispanic community along with rural Nevada’s traditional right leanings, Trump could potentially win the state by as much as five percent, especially when the way past polls have consistently underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020 even though he lost Nevada in both previous races.
Arizona: Arizona was one state that massively benefited from the move from Biden to Harris. Before the swap, Trump was comfortably leading Biden but that gap closed with Harris actually leading in some polls. But things have swung back in the opposite direction. Factor in RFK Jr.’s withdrawal in a tight race and it appears to shift the advantage back to Trump. What can be important in Arizona is that with the shift back to Trump, can he carry Kari Lake across the finish line? She is currently losing to Democrat Rubin Gallego by up to five percent in most polls. Immigration is indirectly on the ballot in Arizona and, as Election Day approaches, should benefit both Trump and Lake. As with other tight races, just 20 or 30 thousand net votes moving from RFK Jr. to Trump could easily deliver Arizona back to the GOP.
Wisconsin: Harris is currently up by 1 percent in Wisconsin according to the latest Rasmussen polling, which over the last two election cycles has been the most accurate. But several other polls show Trump outperforming his 2020 results. And this is another state where polls in both 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump’s support. The polling is likely underestimating his support this year as well and if that turns out to be the case, Trump is probably leading by 3 to 4 percent. Democrats will continue trying to keep Harris’s unpopular far-left positions cloaked, much as they did in 2020 with Biden. But it is unlikely that the strategy will work this time. Expect Harris’s numbers to plummet after Labor Day, especially following the first—and currently only confirmed—debate on September 10 in Philadelphia, hosted by the Harris-friendly ABC network. Notably, Democratic shill George Stephanopoulos will not be moderating. Harris’s policies on the border and the economy are likely to face intense scrutiny.
Michigan: Of the six swing states, Michigan is the least favorable for Trump but with its large Muslim population in the Detroit area, Michigan is trending away from the Democrats and Harris knows it. She will try her best to tack away from Biden’s unpopular support for Israel but it’s going to be very difficult to do. This only got worse with Democrat leadership’s decision to not offer Palestinian Americans any speaking slot at the DNC. We don’t think this important voting block will vote for Trump but they can show their displeasure by staying away from the polls in November. In a tight race, that could swing the state to Trump. Also, with its very heavy blue-collar auto workers constituency, Trump’s stance on electric vehicles could prove to be a deciding factor even without RFK Jr.’s endorsement. (More than any other state, in Michigan Harris-Walz is caught between a rock and a hard place on the Israel-Palestinian Gaza conflict. Democrats have alienated both sides.)
Georgia: In a state where Trump lost by 0.2 percent in 2020, even factoring in the state’s large Black population, it appears that Harris is not moving the needle. Trump is very strong in the rural areas and is improving in the Atlanta suburbs he lost in 2020 after winning them in 2016. We expect that Georgia will flip back in 2024, especially if Trump continues to improve his numbers with Black men. Previously, Trump shot himself in the foot with his previous ill-advised attacks on popular Governor Brian Kemp (who is supporting Trump). But yesterday Trump and Kemp settled their differences dating back to the 2020 election with Kemp issuing a full-throated endorsement of Trump. Trump currently enjoys a two percent lead in the polling aggregates and with Kemp’s endorsement its 16 EC votes should go to Trump. We think that with Kemp’s endorsement—who defeated Stacey Abrams for Governor twice and has a powerful statewide machine—Georgia’s is now off the table for Harris-Walz. Look for Trump to win Georgia by four points or more.
Pennsylvania: It’s been our observation since Biden stepped down with Harris taking his place, by selecting Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro as her running mate, she’s made a huge mistake with national implications. Those implications? Jewish voters in other crucial swing states will view the snub of Shapiro in a very negative way. It seems that Democrats think they can win the Keystone State without him being her running mate. Pennsylvania has been trending to the right with Republicans enjoying a big edge in new voter registrations. This is one state where RFK’s exit from the race should benefit Trump. In the multi-candidate polls, RFK was taking more votes from Trump than Harris. Depending on which poll you follow, the state is anywhere from +1 for Harris to +4 for Trump. With RFK Jr. just dropping out (and not endorsing Trump), it looks like Pennsylvania’s 19 EC votes will go to Trump giving him the election.
(With an RFK Jr. endorsement combined with Glenn Youngkin’s popularity, is Virginia now a swing state that Trump can flip? This bears watching between now and the first debate in September.)
The RFK Jr. campaign probably peeled off more Dems than Republicans, so this endorsement is going to piss off the Dems in a higher proportion to the votes they will lose. They realize the mistake they made by trying to sabotage Kennedy’s presidential bid, and now an RFK Jr. endorsement puts new swing-state wind into Trump’s sails. To understand the full extent of disillusionment of the Kennedy campaign over Democrat Party sabotage, here is VP candidate Nicole Shanahan—a California Democrat lawyer—eviscerating her party over its naked election interference.
If anything, it will be entertaining to see left-on-left infighting. Dems will not take this endorsement lying down; they will trot out Kennedy’s “weirdness” (seems to be more projection than usual coming from them) and maybe tout his betrayal of the Kennedy legacy as if anyone under 60 even remembers. The left hates defectors from the plantation, no matter what legacy a defector’s surname might suggest.
The 2024 race has been the wildest in modern American history and it’s not even Labor Day yet. And what will be this cycle’s October Surprise? In this crazy year, we predict it’s going to be Biden’s resignation after the one scheduled debate so Harris can run as the official incumbent. Could that swing the final result back to Harris? We shall see. Buckle up, it’s only going to get crazier over the next 70 days.
As former President Donald Trump was heading out of Cochise County, Arizona, on Aug. 22, police were arresting a local man suspected of making death threats against the presidential candidate.
Police identified the suspect as Ronald Lee Syvrud, 66, from the city of Benson. The former president said he had been unaware that a manhunt for the suspect was underway during his campaign stop at the U.S.-Mexico border wall.
Carol Capas, spokeswoman for the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office, told The Epoch Times that the alleged threats were made on social media. Capas did not say whether police found any evidence that the suspect intended to make good on the alleged threats.
Syvrud was charged with two counts of threatening in connection with the posts about Trump, the sheriff’s office said in a Facebook post. He also faces a felony warrant from Graham County, Arizona, for failure to register as a sex offender. He remained in the Cochise County Jail awaiting court action during the evening of Aug. 22.
🚨 Breaking 🚨 APPREHENDED 🚨
Authorities in Arizona have arrested Ronald Lee Syvrud (66)
Raise your hand ✋️ if you want him to get life in prison, for threatening to kill President Trump….. this can not go unpunished pic.twitter.com/VJ29IL1fGa
Earlier that day, about four hours before Trump’s scheduled border visit, the sheriff’s office posted on its Facebook page a notice seeking the public’s help to find Syvrud because he was wanted for other warrants and “as an investigative lead for threats to kill a presidential candidate.”
The agency later updated that Facebook post, stating that someone alerted the sheriff’s office about “a threatening message on social media…directed at candidate Donald Trump” on Aug. 21.
“This message contained language that indicated bodily harm to the candidate,” the agency said, adding that investigators found a second Trump-threatening post from Syvrud on Aug. 22.
“As part of the operations plan in place for the visit of candidate Donald Trump…locating this subject was a priority,” the sheriff’s office Facebook post said.
BREAKING: I’ve found the Facebook alias account of the Arizona man wanted by law enforcement for an alleged threat to assassinate Donald Trump while he is campaigning in Arizona.
After learning that Syvrud might be in a small community named St. David, officers went to that location. Around 2:16 p.m., the officers spotted Syvrud in the area, and he was arrested without incident.
Capas said Syvrud was arrested around 2:30 p.m. local time. That was about an hour after the former president finished making remarks and answering reporters’ questions at a section of the U.S.-Mexico border wall in Cochise County.
[ZH: And of course, Syvrud is a pedo…]
Law enforcement in Arizona is seeking a 66-year-old man who allegedly posted about plans to assassinate Donald Trump.
Around 1:15 p.m., when a reporter asked whether Trump was aware of an ongoing manhunt relating to death threats against him or whether he might be in danger for visiting Cochise County, Trump said, “I’ve heard it’s dangerous, but I also have a job to do.”
But, about the specific threat, he said: “I haven’t heard about that; They probably want to keep it from me.”
Jokingly, he said: “Let’s get out of here right now.”
However, Trump did acknowledge that some people didn’t want him to make this border visit because of concerns about his safety. “I have heard it was very unsafe to make this trip,” he said. “And the reason is that I want to do things that are very bad for the bad guys.”
Trump’s appearance was held amid undeveloped desert terrain near the Coronado National Memorial following a visit there by his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), on Aug. 1.
In advance of Trump’s visit, police blocked nearby roads, and no one was allowed in except pre-approved news crews, guest speakers, campaign staff, and invited guests. Secret Service officers screened all news media personnel—their belongings, equipment, and vehicles.
As Trump spoke, snipers were stationed on elevated platforms nearby.
The former president pointed out that additional barriers had been placed along the wall. The thick metal panels would block people on the Mexican side of the border from seeing attendees of the border event, he said, telling dozens of reporters that this security measure was protecting them, too.
The former president took the opportunity to again commend Secret Service officers as he has done repeatedly since he survived a July 13 assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania.
“I have great respect for Secret Service, the job they do, including a month and a half ago, when they were jumping on top of me with bullets flying right at them,” he said.
In an apparent reference to continuing concerns over security failures at the Butler event, Trump said, “So, mistakes were made, and they’re going to learn from the mistakes. But I have great respect.”
Uranium Stocks Rise After World’s Largest Producer Cuts 2025 Output Forecast
Uranium stocks in New York are moving higher in premarket trading after Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer, announced a cut in the 2025 production forecast due to project delays and sulphuric acid shortages. This raised concerns among Wall Street analysts about a potential uranium supply squeeze that could send prices higher.
Kazatomprom produces about a fifth of the global uranium supply. The Kazakh company revealed in a financial report this AM that its production target for next year will be 17% lower to the range of 25,000 to 26,500 tons of uranium.
Kazatomprom has previously warned that if limited access to sulphuric acid continues throughout this year, and should the Company not succeed in catching up with the construction works schedule at the newly developed deposits in 2024, Kazatomprom’s 2025 production plan may also be affected. The Company is now adjusting its initial intentions for 2025 production volumes of 30,500 – 31,500 tU (100% basis). Kazatomprom’s 2025 production is now expected to be between 25,000 and 26,500 tU (100% basis), an approximately 12% growth compared to its 2024 guidance.
A significant portion of the adjusted 2025 production is attributed to JV Budenovskoye LLP’s production delays as specified above. JV Budenovskoye LLP’s 2025 production is expected at 1,300 tU instead of the previously approved 4,000 tU (more than a 65% decrease).
Meirzhan Yussupov, chief executive of Kazatomprom, wrote in a statement that “the uncertainty around the sulphuric acid supplies for 2025 needs and delays in the construction works at the newly developed deposits resulted in a need to re-evaluate our 2025 plans”.
Here’s a quick take from Goldman’s James McGeoch on the world’s largest uranium producer cutting next year’s production forecast:
FY24 22,500 – 23,500 guidance (this is +1kt v prev guide). Revision lower to 2025 guidance by 18% at 25k-26.5kt (prev 30.5kt to 31.5kt): “the uncertainty around the sulphuric acid supplies for 2025 needs and delays in the construction works at the newly developed deposits resulted in a need to re-evaluate our 2025 plans”…so i take a look at this holistically, we know this trade is on, its just that everyone got burnt. When do you come into it? now may be good if you can handle the liquidity issues and you feel like you want to lean into a pretty narrow vein of opportunity. Prices are back at c.$80 having traded last year to c.$105lb. The perspective is 2025 Production guidance cut from 82mm lbs to 65-68.9mm lbs – a 14-17mm lb cut on a 150mm global industry supply number, its a big chunk of change. Inventories -30% even with lower 2024 prodn than initially planned and lower 2025 guidance. If they presold some of 2025/26 prodn – they will have to go into spot mkt to replace. If you follow it your as bullish as you have ever been, our job is to get the man on the street back in and that means you have to compete with Copper which is far more investible. Happy to discuss anytime.
“This is a structural problem — they cannot ramp up,” Nick Lawson, chief executive of Ocean Wall, an investment firm, said, as quoted by Financial Times. He added, “It won’t just be the West saying this is an issue for us; it will also be Russia and China saying it’s a problem for our new nuclear power plants.”
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity forecast Kazatomprom’s production will be around 23,000 tons in 2025, adding that next year’s theme in the uranium market will be “tight.”
Uranium prices have surged in recent years. Wall Street finally figured out (read here) that nuclear power would be the cleanest and most reliable energy source for AI data centers (read: here) and other electrification trends, such as EVs and reshoring efforts.
A tight uranium supply theme rolling into 2025 could pressure prices higher.
Kazatomprom’s downgrade “should be a cause for concern for Western utilities. The geopolitical developments and writing on the wall has been the Russians getting closer to the Kazakhs,” said Per Jander, director at WMC Energy, a commodity trading merchant.
The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about.
Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market. However, as is often the case, the devil is in the details.
We uncover a more troubling picture when we peel back the layers of this seemingly positive data. Seasonal adjustments, downward revisions, and rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans suggest a more cautious view. The consumer—the backbone of the U.S. economy—may be in more trouble than the headline numbers indicate.
The Mirage of Seasonal Adjustments
The July retail sales report showed a sharp increase of 1.0% month-over-month, surpassing expectations. However, while that number supports the idea of a resilient consumer, these spikes have been more anomalous than not. Since 2021, real retail sales have virtually flatlined. Such is unsurprising as consumers run out of savings to sustain their standard of living.
The following chart of real retail sales clearly shows the consumer dilemma. Over the past two years, retail sales have not grown to support more robust economic growth rates. Notably, flat real retail sales growth was pre-recessionary and a “red flag” of weakening economic growth. However, given the massive surge in spending driven by repeated rounds of Government stimulus, the reversion of retail sales to the long-term trend has taken longer than previous periods, leading economists to believe “this time is different.”
But before we break out the champagne, let’s examine how these numbers are calculated. Retail sales data is notoriously volatile. Factors like weather, holidays, and even the day of the week play a significant role. To smooth out these fluctuations, the data is seasonally adjusted. The chart shows the magnitude of these seasonal adjustments since 1992. Interestingly, the magnitude of these adjustments is increasing over time.
But what happens when those adjustments paint an overly rosy picture?
Downward Revisions: A Growing Trend
Seasonal adjustments are a double-edged sword. While they aim to provide a clearer view of underlying trends, they can also distort reality, especially in an economy as dynamic and unpredictable as ours. Unfortunately, these adjustments are often revised in hindsight as more data becomes available. For example, a “red flag” is that eight of the past twelve-monthly retail sales reports were revised significantly lower, making the recent monthly “beat” much less impressive.
Why are retail sales being revised downward so frequently? One possible explanation is that initial estimates are overly optimistic, perhaps due to seasonal adjustments. As more accurate data becomes available, the true picture emerges, and it’s not as pretty as many believe. So, is there potentially a better method?
As noted, monthly retail sales are volatile due to various events. Christmas, Thanksgiving, Easter, summer travel, back-to-school, and weather all impact consumer spending. Therefore, “seasonally adjusting” the raw data may seem necessary to smooth out these periods of higher volatility. However, such a process introduces substantial human error. Using a simplistic 12-month average of the non-seasonally adjusted data (raw data) provides a smoother and more reliable analysis of consumer strength. Historically, when the 12-month average of the raw data approaches or declines below 2% annualized, it is a “red flag” for the economy. Again, the massive spike in COVID-related stimulus is reversing towards levels that should concern investors.
In other words, if we strip out the seasonal adjustments and apply a smoothing process to volatile data, the issue of consumer strength becomes more questionable.
Another “red flag” is realizing that retail sales should grow as the population grows. If we look at retail sales per capita, we see that before 2010, retail sales grew at a 5% annualized trend. However, that changed after the “financial crisis,” retail sales fell well below the previous trend despite an increasing population. While that gap improved following the Covid-stimulus supports, the gap is once again widening.
As you can see, the data shows a much more subdued picture of consumer spending, which raises a critical question: Are we being lulled into a false sense of security by the headline numbers? The reality is likely far more sobering.
The Debt Bomb: Rising Delinquency Rates
Perhaps the most alarming signal comes from the rising credit card and auto loan delinquency rates. Consumers have been relying heavily on credit to maintain their spending habits in the face of high inflation and stagnant wage growth. The spread between retail sales and consumer credit to disposable personal income rises as COVID-related stimulus runs dry and inflation is outstripping wages, forcing consumers to turn to credit.
But there’s a limit to how much debt consumers can take on before the house of cards tumbles.
According to the latest data, delinquency rates (more than 90 days) on both auto loans and credit cards have reached their highest level since 2012. Notably, delinquency rates are rising the fastest for younger generations that tend to have lower incomes and less savings. (Charts courtesy of Mish Shedlock)
These rising delinquency rates are a warning sign that consumers struggle to keep up with their debt obligations. As more consumers fall behind on their payments, the risk of a broader economic slowdown increases. After all, consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. If the consumer falters, the entire economy is at risk.
The Implications for Future Consumption
Given these “red flags,” it is difficult to see how the current level of consumer spending can be sustained. Rising delinquency rates, downward revisions to retail sales, and questionable seasonal adjustments all suggest the consumer is running out of spending power.
In the near term, we may continue to see headline retail sales numbers that appear healthy, especially if seasonal adjustments continue to provide a tailwind. However, the underlying data tells a different story. As more consumers reach their debt limits and delinquency rates continue to rise, we could see a significant spending slowdown later this year.
That slowdown would have far-reaching implications for the broader economy. Retailers could see further revenue declines, leading to potential layoffs and further weakening of consumer spending. Banks and financial institutions could also face higher loan losses, particularly in the credit card and auto loan sectors.
In summary, while the latest retail sales report may have given the market a short-term boost, suggesting a “soft landing” economically, the underlying data suggests we should be cautious. Seasonal adjustments and downward revisions are masking the actual state of consumer spending, while rising delinquency rates are a clear sign of trouble ahead.
Investors and policymakers would do well to look beyond the headlines and focus on the economy’s real risks. The consumer may be hanging on for now, but the cracks are starting to show. Ignoring these red flags could lead to a rude awakening in the months ahead.
Powell Vows To Cut Rates With Stocks, Home Prices, Rents And Food At All Time Highs
Well, it’s official: Powell came, saw, and unlike two years ago when, with with CPI rising almost double digits the uber-hawkish Fed chair warned of “pain” to come, this time he couldn’t be more dovish.
Having put inflation fully in the rearview mirror, the “Powell payrolls pivot” is now complete because as the Fed chair said, “the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable” even if it was quite mistakable to the Biden admin’s presstitutes as recently as one month ago.
Which is also why it was imperative for the Biden labor department to admit the truth about the deteriorating labor market: without that -818K revision earlier this week, the Fed would have some pushback to turning fully dovish. But now that we know that a third of the job gains in the last year of Bidenomics were bogus…well, please come save us Chairman Fed.
Or, as TradeStation head of strategy David Russell said, “here comes the punchbowl. Jerome Powell came out swinging today with a litany of dovish signals. He said inflation is on a sustainable path lower and talked about how the job market has cooled to pre-pandemic levels. He drove the point home with a clear call for adjusting policy.”
The market agreed, and quickly cemented at least one rate cut while also pricing in as much as 33% odds of a 50bps rate cut.
Which is all great: after all as we have long said, with the November elections looming, the Fed will do everything to make sure the establishment candidate isn’t distracted by such trivial things as a market crash.
There are just four small problems with this.
First: the Fed will end its tightening cycle and starts the next easing cycle with stocks at all time highs, something that has never before happened in the history of capital markets!
It means that, unless the current expansion ends in a gruesome recession which crushes the economy, the S&P is about to enter a full-blown bubble, which in turn will burst in even more spectacular fashion and force the Fed to not only cut back to ZIRP, but activate NIRP (just like Japan did years ago) and also go right back to QE and buying bonds ETFs. For now, however, as in the next three months ahead of the elections, all shall be well and should serve the all time high in the market to Kamala Harris on a silver platter…. which is precisely why the Fed is doing what it is doing.
Second, this is also the first time in history when the Fed has aborted a tightening cycle having achieved zero home price easing. Indeed, one look at the case-shiller index shows that home prices are the highest they have ever been…
… as are actual asking rents according to Zillow (not that delayed aberration known as Owner-Equivalent Rent).
And then you have Kamala’s promise to provides $25,000 in new home purchase subsidies, which will go straight to the asking price, sending prices even higher.
In short, both home prices and rents, already at record high, are about to go record-er…
Third, while one can technically live without housing or rent, one still needs to eat. And here we find another problem, because not only did the Fed’s rate hikes not contain stock, home or rent prices, but food prices – both at home and away from home – are also at all time high! And guess what cutting rates and stimulating the economy will do to food prices from this point on…
Fourth, and final, the seeds of the next inflationary bubble are already set, because even as the Fed kept conditions tight (or even exceptionally tight), M2 – the broadest money aggregate tracked by the Fed – is once again rising after declining for the past three years.
Of course, there are countless other examples, because besides the above case studies, prices are at all time highs pretty much everywhere else too. But you get the message. The only question is what can possibly go wrong with the Fed launching an easing (i.e., monetary stimulus) cycle with prices for pretty much everything, stocks and homes included, at all time highs and rising.
“Kamala, you are supposed to drink AFTER the speech.”
– Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA
“The entire Democrat campaign will now be focused on gaslighting the country into believing Trump has been president for the last 4 years and Kamala has been an innocent bystander the whole time. They can’t run on her record, so they’re going to invent one and lie about it.”
– Sean Davis, The Federalist
Get this: there is one thing, one lurking terror, behind every fake and desperate move the Democratic Party has made this dire election cycle: the fear that hundreds of high officials might have to pay for their crimes of recent years if they lose on November 5.
That’s why they lie about everything, and work so hard to construct false narratives, and struggle to obliterate the memory of Joe Biden’s ruinous term in power.
Of course, they can’t talk about it.
It’s like the darkest secret in a wrecked human soul that has lost itself in mental illness, some abscess of shame and guilt sealed off in the mind’s attempt to protect itself — like the memory of an incest or an unsolved family murder — which explains the rich show of various derangements actually highlighted at this year’s Democratic Convention, their Cluster-B personality disorder freak show.
It is an anguished, guilt-ridden collective mind leaking clues to its own disordered debasement.
So, the deed is done now.
The odious “Joe Biden,” fake president, is dumped in the ditch of history, and a mighty operation is mounted to put over Veep Kamala Harris, who ignored “JB’s” incapacity to head the US government for four years, carrying out no duties meanwhile, hiding from the public, answering nothing, going nowhere, abetted by a treasonous news media bent on hiding her as she drank away the months in the old Naval Observatory.
The conventions are over and the contest is on.
Have you heard enough of their fake war-cry: “defending our democracy?” From a party that has tortured the law to jail and silence its critics and scrape its challengers off every ballot.
The pretense is perfect. Their “democracy” is actually a colossal “spoils” system — to the victor goes the spoils! — a grotesque political machine funneling trillions of federal dollars to their client voter groups, and especially to the non-profit orgs and NGOs that form a sinister secondary bureaucracy accountable to nobody.
And all done with direct connivance of the federal intel blob at war with everyone outside this matrix of turpitude. And, by the way, the money is gone. Trillions. And nothing to show for it.
This is what Mr. Trump opposes, and has been fighting against since 2016. No wonder it wants to stuff him in prison or kill him. It is a mighty enemy because it holds the levers of official power, especially the federal prosecutors and the state and county prosecutors put in place by the Democrats’ chief “influencer,” the George and Alex Soros NGO empire. And the big picture includes the monumental crime against our country — against all the countries of Western Civ, really — which was the Covid-19 operation that left millions disabled or dead from a phony, poisonous “vaccine.”
And now we hear — as I write early this Friday morning, hours before any official announcement — that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is about to suspend his campaign, kneecapped by the Democratic Party so busy “defending our democracy,” and perhaps throw his support to Donald Trump in order to defeat this mafia of the mentally ill.
I hope he does that. And I hope he denounces the party of his ancestors in the most vividly opprobrious terms so that no one can misunderstand the gravity of what has been going on.
I’d also look forward to Mr. Kennedy playing an important role in the second Trump government.
Mr. Kennedy knows probably better than anyone in America exactly how the gigantic racketeering operation was constructed that grafted pharma onto the US public health agencies, the FDA, CDC, NIAID, and others. This monster that has left so many Americans dead and injured, and wrecked the health of the nation’s young people especially, must be slayed. It must be disassembled and its pieces reconstructed into institutions that actually serve the public. This includes the hospital holding companies, the private equity pirates out to asset-strip medicine, the insurance-driven, overgrown doctors’ practices, and the mendacious medical boards, professional orgs, and journals that unjustly punished dissident doctors and nurses who tried to oppose the extralegal Covid-19 vaxx mandates.
If it happens that Mr. Kennedy joins forces with Mr. Trump, it could be a momentous turn in an election so far marred by Democratic Party hoaxes, coups, and lawfare ops.
Naturally, The New York Times played the story this morning in a tiny headline below-the-fold, saying nothing about the rumored stunning alliance between the Kennedy and Trump campaigns.
We await the Sept 18 sentencing hearing of Judge Juan Merchan in the Alvin Bragg book-keeping error (“34 felonies”) fake case that threatens to jam Mr. Trump into a Riker’s Island jail cell. I’d like to see them try that. I’d like to see Mr. Kennedy explain to readers of The New York Times and viewers of CNN how all that worked. Those news agencies, in turn, will not be able to get around the fact that “X” (Twitter) has become the dominant source of news for Americans, a platform the old news orgs have no control over, and may not be able to ignore.
Mr. Kennedy has the chance to elevate the argument against the now-debased party of his father and his uncle that has weirdly become a national wrecking crew. He has the ability to remind the voting public exactly what has gone wrong, in language that won’t be misunderstood or twisted, and to point a way back, with Mr. Trump, to being a country worth caring about.
