Initial jobless claims dropped modestly (SA) from 245k to 235k last week (while on an NSA basis, claims crashed back to earth after last week’s spike)…

Source: Bloomberg

New York, Michigan, and California all saw claims crash last week on an NSA basis…

…but Texas claims continue to surge due to the storm…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing jobless claims continue to hold above the 1.8 million Maginot Line – at their highest since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this enough for more rate-cuts?

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse,

Do you remember how painful the Great Recession was?  2008 and the years immediately following were definitely a very dark chapter in our history, but a new study has actually found that the percentage of Americans that worry they won’t be able to pay their bills is actually higher today than it was back then.  Slowly but surely, our economic strength has been fading and our standard of living has been falling.  Unfortunately, now we have reached a point where a very large portion of the U.S. population is really struggling. 

According to a CNN poll that was just released, almost 40 percent of all U.S. adults “say they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to meet expenses”…

Many Americans regularly worry they won’t be able to make ends meet.

Nearly four in ten (39%) of US adults say they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to meet expenses, according to a new CNN poll. That’s up from 28% who expressed those concerns in December 2021, and it’s similar to the numbers seen during the Great Recession (37%).

To cope, significant shares of Americans said they are adding side jobs, cutting down on driving and putting more expenses on credit cards.

If you would have asked me before I saw the results, I would have been quite confident that the number during the Great Recession would have been higher than the number in 2024.

Just like everyone else, I remember the Great Recession as such a painful time.

Sadly, the economic pain that we are experiencing now is just beginning.

Ordinary Americans from coast to coast are being absolutely crushed by rising prices, and that isn’t going to change any time soon.

In an article that CNN posted about this new survey, one woman that works for the CDC admitted that she was recently forced to move because costs have risen so aggressively…

“The grocery store is just outrageous right now. But it’s not just that. Everything has gone up. Clothing. My insurance,” said Angela Russell, an Ohio resident who works as a program analyst at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Russell, who has two adult children and three grandkids, said she recently moved out of her rental home in Cincinnati in favor of one in a rural area where the rent is cheaper.

Other recent surveys have come up with results that are even more alarming.

For example, one discovered that a whopping 71 percent of Americans are stressed out about their “ability to afford everyday expenses”…

71% of Americans say they’re stressed by their ability to afford everyday expenses.

Americans most regularly spend money on groceries, phone bills, utilities, gasoline and rent/mortgage payments.

Grocery bills frustrate Americans more than any other regular expense. Utilities, rent/mortgage payments, gasoline and insurance payments round out the top five most annoying expenses.

That is most of the country.

Unsurprisingly, younger generations are being hit particularly hard by the pain of inflation…

Financial stress levels are highest among millennials (77%), followed by Generation Z (75%) and Generation X (74%). Baby boomers reported experiencing the least financial stress, although at 59% it was still more than half of those surveyed.

Those that follow my work regularly know that I tend to rant about rising prices at the grocery store.

Sometimes it is hard for me to believe that prices have gotten so high, and it appears that a lot of people out there agree with me.

Another recent survey found that 80 percent of Americans have observed a “notable increase” in grocery store prices…

According to a study by Qualtrics on behalf of Intuit Credit Karma, 80% of Americans say they have felt a “notable increase” in grocery costs in recent years. More than a quarter of respondents said the increased cost has led them to occasionally skip meals, while about one-third said they spend more than 60% of their monthly income on mandatory expenses such as food, utilities and rent.

Food has certainly become ridiculously expensive, but we actually spend far more money on housing.

Today, the typical household spends about 12 percent of total income on food and about 33 percent of total income on housing…

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the top three annual expenses for the average American household in 2022 (the most recent data available) were housing (33.3%), transportation (16.8%) and food (12.8%).

For most Americans, spending money in these areas is unavoidable.

Housing costs have been rising much faster than the overall rate of inflation, and we just learned that home prices reached yet another new all-time record high last month…

Home prices hit a new high in June for the second straight month, the latest sign that the housing market is unaffordable to millions of Americans.

The spring home-buying season, usually the busiest time of year for the housing market, was a dud this year. Home sales declined in June for the fourth straight time on a monthly basis. The combination of high prices and elevated mortgage rates has made homeownership less attractive to renters and deterred current homeowners from moving.

Meanwhile, homelessness in the United States is at the highest level ever recorded and it has been growing at the fastest pace ever recorded.

We just can’t keep going on like this.

Something has to give.

It appears to be inevitable that all of this economic pain will have a dramatic impact on the upcoming election.  At this point, approximately three out of every five Americans believe that we are already in a recession right now…

You don’t need to be a financial genius to know that times are tough for plenty of Americans. With that in mind, a majority of people actually think the economy is doing even worse than the “experts” say it is. Three in five people believe that the U.S. is currently in a recession, even though we’re not officially in one according to the financial definition.

The survey of 2,000 Americans explored what’s driving this lack of consumer confidence in the economy. Inflation and the rising cost of living (68%) top the list of reasons why respondents believe the U.S. is in a recession, followed by friends and family members complaining about money (50%).

It is not an accident that this has happened.

For more than a decade, people like me have been relentlessly warning that the decisions that our leaders were making would have disastrous consequences, and that is exactly what has happened.

And if we stay on the path that we are on, it won’t be too long before we witness a meltdown of absolutely epic proportions.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

We’ve all heard the liberating stories about the ‘gig economy’—breaking free from nine-to-five jobs and offering flexibility.

For many Americans, it sounded super enticing. However, once in the gig economy, the reality is very different. The pay is often horrendous, and there’s no work-life balance while ferrying people around town as an Uber or Lyft driver or delivering food for DoorDash.

The BlueForge Alliance, a nonprofit integrator supporting the United States Navy’s Submarine Industrial Base, has kicked off a campaign with a new ad for youngsters, explaining their future is not an Uber driver but, in fact, helping to build America’s next fleet of naval ships – in a stable job environment.

“The campaign seeks to reach a younger audience of next-generation talent who may be unaware of the substantial opportunities for stable and impactful careers in maritime manufacturing,” BlueForge Alliance wrote in a statement earlier this month. 

The ad campaign for millennials and Gen Zers will lead them to the “CareersBuiltToLast.com” website, which highlights well-paying, high-tech, high-ceiling manufacturing jobs. This is undoubtedly enticing for youngsters, some of whom have been financially paralyzed by elevated inflation and high interest rates—thanks to failed Bidenomics. 

“Many people across America aren’t aware of the huge opportunities for careers in maritime manufacturing,” said James Rowe, Managing Director at adam&eveDDB New York.

Rowe said, “The gig economy has created a transitory workforce, and we wanted to demonstrate that there are incredible long-term career opportunities across American manufacturing.”

He continued: “Bringing an icon like Rosie the Riveter into 2024 felt like a unique way to connect with a new generation and make them aware of the prospects that a career in manufacturing has to offer.”

For the American blue-collar worker, who has been crushed by de-industrial trends over the last three decades, there is hope that re-shoring trends, beginning with former President Trump and continuing with President Biden, will eventually lead to high-paying jobs once again that can rebuild the middle class.

Television host Mike Rowe would likely be proud of these manufacturing jobs.

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

US President Joe Biden, long showing signs of decline, is now officially done for in five months time, if not sooner. The current odds-on favorite to be the next president speaks often about turning away from Europe. Governments are collapsing, and countries are fracturing across the EU. And the eurozone economy is a mess.

One might be tempted to come to the conclusion that it is time for the EU to start figuring out an exit strategy from its war against Russia. Trouble is, if the bloc’s crop of leaders were able to grasp the situation and act, they likely would have gotten out a long time ago – or never been game at all. Instead they kept digging deeper, and here again we have the EU doubling down.

EU diplomats have spent the past few weeks throwing a fit over Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s shuttle diplomacy efforts. In its very first session the newly elected Parliament produced a belligerent joint text, making all sorts of hardline demands, such as the removal of any restrictions on the Ukrainian use of Western weapons systems to strike Russian territory.

They also chose to reappoint one of the war’s biggest backers, Ursula von der Leyen, as president of the European Commission – the most powerful position in the EU. Let’s take a look at von der Leyen’s pitch as she worked to cobble together enough votes for her second five-year term and what the plan is now that she’s back. Emboldened by her reappointment, she is pushing for a defense union.

Politico describes this task as “the number one challenge of her second term: making huge amounts of EU money available to reindustrialize and re-arm the EU.”

Left unexplained is who would foot the bill for the ambitious  plans, but the Commission and the European Central Bank continue to consider the possibility of issuing Eurobonds to finance the purchase or manufacture of weaponry, an idea considered off-limits until recently. Some background on the potential “miracle” of Euro defense bonds from Euractiv: 

This miracle happened during the eurozone crisis when the EU created a legal instrument, the European Financial Stability Facility, able to issue bonds and with a lending capacity of €440 billion. And with the COVID pandemic, the miracle was repeated as the EU adopted a recovery fund with a firepower of €750 billion, financed through common debt issuance.

The same line of thinking has inspired politicians to imagine defence bonds – to finance a major boost of the EU’s defence capabilities, after years of neglect when it was assumed that war was a thing of the past or that Uncle Sam would always come to the EU’s defence.

Estonia’s Prime Minister [now the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy] Kaja Kallas highlighted in December the need for EU defence bonds to fight Russia’s aggression in Ukraine…

Speaking at the European Defence Agency annual conference on 30 November, [European Council President Charles] Michel said EU member states should pool what could amount to €600 billion in defence investment over the next 10 years.

He also said European defence bonds would be an attractive asset class, including for retail investors. Incidentally, a top European Investment Bank cautioned in an interview with Euractiv in January that investors don’t currently have an appetite for defence-related financial assets.

A couple of weeks later, French President Emmanuel Macron returned to the topic, telling investors at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Europe should resort to joint debt to finance its priorities, including defence.

Who doesn’t love “miracles?” But there are some issues, including economic difficulties across the bloc, governments crumbling, and public frustration with everything from the immigration to the economy. There is also the reported military manpower shortages, which is a whole other problem that has been frequently covered.

Politico quotes an unnamed diplomat who says that “Everything that costs anything — for example, Ukraine defense,” will prove “problematic” during von der Leyen’s second term. While von der Leyen is throwing around figures like 500 billion over the next decade, another diplomat said, “We didn’t see spreadsheets, we didn’t see details, this is pie in the sky money.”

More details are likely coming soon as von der Leyen is planning to appoint a Commissioner for Defense who will present a white paper on the future of European militarization efforts within 100 days.

The real question is whether Germany will go along with any eurobond plan. The historically unpopular chancellor Olaf Scholz remains opposed to Euro defense bonds – for now. He argues that the EU already has various research and industrial funds to support defense cooperation among member states and defense companies.

For example, Poland, France, Germany and Italy just signed a letter of intent to jointly develop long-range cruise missiles. Poland and Germany were among those countries that got rid of their missiles in the 1990s following the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. That agreement expired in 2019, however, after then-president Donald Trump withdrew from it. The US is ever-so-generously agreeing to cover Germany where US long-range missiles will be rotationally deployed in 2026 as a temporary solution.

While Scholz talks up agreements like the joint development of long-range cruise missiles, Atlanticists are insisting he do more, and he does not have a strong record of firmness when pressured by his NATO/EU colleagues.

Recall in the Fall of 2022 when he resisted sending more heavy arms to Ukraine. After a few weeks of badgering, he pledged to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” He also caved on the Leopard tanks after making a show of resistance. On the other hand, the Taurus missiles still haven’t been sent to Ukraine. Yet the Eurobond issue is starting to be reminiscent of these previous pressure campaigns. It was only four months ago that idea was viewed as “radical;” now Germany is viewed as the main roadblock.

Berlin is facing its own budgetary constraints while also pushing arbitrary limits onto other EU nations, and the inadequate ramp up of military spending is “set[ting] the stage for further clashes with Germany’s international partners, especially Washington, in the coming months.” On the other hand, any eurobond plan would only strengthen political threats to the “center” in Germany, such as the Alternative for Germany and Sahra Wagenknecht who want to stop the digging and attempt to repair ties with Russia.

Could a Trump Election Further Von Der Leyen’s Goals?

It’s important to note that Trump didn’t actually undermine the NATO alliance in any significant way as president and appointed CIA officials and neocons to run his hawkish foreign policy, although there is hope that will change in a second go-round.

In reality, however, the plan for the US to take a backseat on the European front and focus on the Pacific is part of a strategy long pushed by neocons. It might be an unrealistic and dangerous one, but it is a strategy nonetheless. Here is a team from the influential Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) writing earlier this year in Foreign Affairs about how Europe must lead in the fight against Russia so the US can focus on China:

That complicated reality requires U.S. allies, especially in Europe, to take on a larger share of directing the containment of Russia. Europe has shown its political and economic resilience in the face of Russian aggression. Yet militarily, the continent remains dependent on the United States. This dynamic must change, in part because the United States must commit more of its resources to Asia. The growth of European defense spending since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is an encouraging step. In 2023, 11 NATO members hit their spending target, allocating at least two percent of GDP to national defense, up from just seven members in 2022. The rest need to follow suit.

Europe must also resolve the problem of coordination. Right now, the United States coordinates more than 25 militaries in Europe. While it must continue to do this in the short term, it must push individual European countries and the European Union to take over this role and to create a stronger European pillar in NATO.

This is precisely what is atop Queen Ursula’s to-do list for her second term, so a second Trump presidency might not be a disaster but an opportunity in the eyes of ambitious and deluded in Brussels who want to amass more power in the name of marshaling the bloc’s finances to ramp up militarization efforts against the Russian menace.

In many ways Europe’s bureaucracy has already changed in small but fundamental ways in order to redirect money towards war. From Equal Times:

“In 2023, there was a very significant increase in military spending worldwide, but especially in Europe. In Spain, for example, it grew by 24 per cent and in Finland by 36 per cent. If we compare it with 2013, the European countries in Nato are spending 30 per cent more,” says Pere Ortega, a researcher at the Barcelona-based Centre Delàs for Peace Studies, which is critical of measures adopted by the European Commission to promote military spending, such as the VAT exemption for the purchase of armaments or the change in the regulations of the European Investment Bank (EIB) to allow it to finance industrial projects in the military sphere.

And according to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the number of countries meeting the two percent target has risen from 3 to 23 since 2014:

The problem now is that individual states are running into budgetary constraints.

More Guns, Less Butter

EU leaders are determined to reimpose austerity on bloc countries beginning in 2025. That’s a return to the annual limits of 3 percent of GDP for public deficits and 60 percent for public debt, which were suspended in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

There are some new twists to the rules that were marketed as measures to soften the pain, but if they do, it will be minimal. For example, the new agreement stipulates that countries with a deficit above 3 percent of GDP are required to halve this to 1.5 percent but can do so during periods of growth. That growth might quickly evaporate with such a public spending pullback, but that’s the plan. Elsewhere, countries will still be required to  reduce their debt on average by 1 percent per year if it is above 90 percent of GDP, and by 0.5 percent per year on average if the debt is between 60 percent and 90 percent of GDP.  The new rules give countries seven years to get their spending in order, up from four previously.

These rules will make it close to impossible to spend more on defense without completely cutting social services to the bone. Even without factoring in increased defense expenditures the outlook is grim:

Too meet reformed EU fiscal rules, Italy and France would have to go for fiscal consolidations over 2025-2028 that are larger than during the Euro Crisis (2011-2014). Spain has to do about half.

Do we properly remember the effects and political debates of €zone austerity? pic.twitter.com/Rmuz8jfkTJ

— Philipp Heimberger (@heimbergecon) June 21, 2024

So how to reconcile the goal of a defense union and remilitarization with plans for austerity?

A few possibilities:

• There is talk of exemptions from the debt rules for military spending.

• Bloomberg reported back in March that EU officials and investors are using the fiscal rules to push for an EU-wide bond program that would bring the investors bigtime profits while allowing the bloc to ramp up military spending without individual nations incurring more debt.

Of course a third option is that the EU will abandon its war against Russia, stop supporting Nazis, quit fetishizing austerity, and rebuild its economies, but back to reality.

The big question remains if Germany will get onboard with the EU bond program. One reason it could is because it would help Berlin with its own budgetary constraints. While Germany wouldn’t face major budget crunches like France, Italy, and Spain under the return of debt and deficit rules, it is hamstrung by its self-imposed deficit brake.

That rule, intended to force German governments to balance the federal budget, was introduced under former Chancellor Angela Merkel during the euro crisis and restricts deficit spending to a minimum, except under “extraordinary” circumstances, such as a natural disaster or war. The current government tried to override the brake in order to shovel more money into the Ukraine bottomless pit, but was rebuked last Fall by the constitutional court.

An EU-wide war bond program could help the bloc bypass all the self-imposed debt brakes while still cutting and privatizing social services, and both could be a boon for investors. What’s not to love? The Centre for European Policy Studies with more:

Against this backdrop, the EU’s true ‘Hamiltonian moment’ in defence would be a decision to issue joint debt to properly fund the ambitions set out in its Defence Industrial Strategy.

Based on Art. 122 TFEU and implemented in accordance with Articles 173-174 TFEU, such bonds—possible under the EU’s Financial Regulation—could provide the backbone for grants to Member States to bolster the Union’s defence production capacity if paired with existing incentives for joint capabilities research, development, production, and procurement. This would avoid the two-speed logic and weaker conditionalities surrounding proposals to use the European Stability Mechanism (excluding key countries such as Poland, Sweden and Denmark) to issue loans to EU Member States for defence spending.

Like how the Covid-induced Recovery and Resilience Facility stabilised European markets and sustained demand during and after the pandemic, Euro-defence bonds are a potential game-changer for the EU’s defence ambitions due to the potential speed and scale of resource mobilisation, and the potential impact on market de-fragmentation. And, fortunately, the German Constitutional Court should have nothing to object to this time around.

The View from Outside the Cult

Voices from Moscow, Budapest, and Belgrade are issuing warnings that the EU continuing down this road increases the threat of war, and they are concluding that is what Brussels wants.

Moscow is taking note of von der Leyen’s plans and preparing accordingly according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov:

“[It] confirms the general attitude of European states to militarisation, escalation of tension, confrontation and reliance on confrontational methods in their foreign policy,” said Peskov “Everything is quite obvious here.”

The Kremlin spokesman added that while Russia did not pose a threat to the EU, actions by its member states regarding Ukraine “have excluded any possibility of dialogue and consideration of Russia’s concerns. These are the realities in which we have to live, and this forces us to configure our foreign policy approaches accordingly,” Peskov said.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, childishly reprimanded by the EU for talking peace with world leaders, keeps warning about the levels of delusion in Brussels. His latest in a Magyar Nemzet op-ed:

The Brussels bureaucrats want this war, they see it as their own, and they want to defeat Russia. They keep sending the money of the European people to Ukraine, they have shot European companies in the foot with sanctions, they have driven up inflation and they have made making a living difficult for millions of European citizens.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic echoed those thoughts in a recent interview with the Pink TV channel:

“The West would like to conduct warfare from a distance, through someone else, through investing money and so on, but at the moment they are not ready [for a direct conflict with Russia]. Will they be ready? They are not ready now, but I think they will be ready. They are already preparing for a conflict with the Russian Federation and they are preparing much faster than some people would like to see, in every sense. We know that from the military preparations, we know how they’re going. And I want to tell you, they are preparing for a military conflict.”

Update (1815ET): Anti-Israel protesters were filmed dragging and assaulting a DC cop, and setting fire to an American flag in protest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech.

NEW: Pro-Palestine protesters filmed dragging and assaulting a police officer on the bricks outside of Union Station.

The protesters were also filmed replacing the U.S. flag with the Palestinian flag before setting fire to the U.S. flag.

U.S. Capitol Police was forced to issue… pic.twitter.com/blEEXWSW5y

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 24, 2024

‘BURN THAT SHIT!’ Anti-Israel protesters set fire to the American flag in D.C.pic.twitter.com/4oe7nxq2dy

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 24, 2024

Meanwhile, all three flags at Union Station were replaced with Palestinian flags.

All three flags at Union Station in Washington DC, including the American flag, have been replaced by the flag Hamas flags pic.twitter.com/QMEBujujfr

— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) July 24, 2024

Our Nation’s Capitol right now: pic.twitter.com/DUM8XwYMF8

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) July 24, 2024

*  *  *

Summary: Seeking to shore up support for the war against Hamas in Gaza, and with Vice President Harris not in attendance and with dozens of Democrats also choosing to skip in protest, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed “this great citadel of democracy for the fourth time.” He also took time in the lengthy address to acknowledge rescued hostages and their families, including families of American hostages, present in the chamber for the speech.

“I will not rest until all of their loved ones are home! All of them” – he said of the hostages. We are “actively engaged” in intensive efforts to secure their release, the prime minister said. “Some of them are taking place right now.” He also recognized “President Biden’s “tireless efforts” and “heartfelt support” for Israel. Biden “dispatched two aircraft carriers to the Middle East to prevent a wider war,” Netanyahu said. Also acknowledging this politically chaotic and sensitive moment where Biden has bowed out of the presidential race, he called the US president “A proud Irish-American Zionist.” But he also by the end of the speech thanked Donald Trump for forging the historic Abraham Accords, and gave thanks for his surviving the assassination attempt against him.

Bibi is a master of optics, and he delivered a highly emotional reminder of the enormity and evil of the Oct.7 terror attacks. As expected, he linked 9/11, Oct. 7, and the Holocaust, but also highlighted American domestic protests and ‘anti-Jewish hate’. He described that ultimately this is a clash between “barbarism and civilization”, or “those who glorify death and those who sanctify life.” He said that on Oct.7 Hamas butchered 39 Americans, and likened it to having several 9/11’s in one day (compared to the population size of Israel). “Iran’s axis of terror confronts America, Israel, and its Arab friends,” he also said at one point, before linking Iran to US campus protests. He even mentioned the “frat brothers at the University of North Carolina” who tenaciously protected the American flag from raging anti-Israeli protesters. He ultimately accused “Iran of funding and promoting” anti-American and anti-Israel protests. “If Israel’s hands are tied, America is next,” he claimed.

He emphasized that America and Israel must stand together… “we win, they lose,” he said. Netanyahu also repeatedly went after the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) during the speech, calling the court “downright dangerous”. He called the genocide allegations “utter complete nonsense” and a fabrication.

At one point he told the story of an Ethiopian-Israeli officer who ran eight miles to the border where he killed terrorists. “These are the soldiers of Israel, unbowed, undaunted, unafraid!” He also held up the heroic actions of a Muslim-Israeli officer serving in a Arab Bedouin unit.

Republicans ripped Kamala’s absence…

Kamala Harris:

When Ukraine 🇺🇦 When Israel 🇮🇱
leader speaks: leader speaks: pic.twitter.com/OqZPD6KAsC

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) July 24, 2024

As expected, much of his speech was focused on Iran, who he said is behind “all the terrorism” and “all the killing”. He argued that Israel is essentially a wall protecting the rest of the civilized world from Iran and its proxies, whether Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Iraqi Shia militants.  At one point he even asserted that the Islamic Republic “brazenly threatened to assassinate President Trump.” He said Israel is at the “front lines” – which helps prevent more American boots on the ground.”

He proclaimed that Israel is “grateful” for US support, but also pleaded: “give us the tools faster” and we will end the war faster. He blamed Hamas for lack of ceasefire, saying the terror group must return all hostages. If they don’t, Bibi said, Hamas will be utterly destroyed.

Surprisingly, any protest attempt during the speech was minimal to non-existent, apart from a few shouts just after the close of the speech, with throughout was interspersed with long clapping bouts from Congress members. There were a few Progressive Dems holding up small signs, however, which appeared to have no impact…

Others decided to show their support by actually putting on a suit and tie…

Watch Live:

*    *    * 

Update (1358ET):

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to address Congress at 1400 ET. The last time Netanyahu addressed Congress was in 2015. This address comes at a time of massive division between Republicans and Democrats and their approach to one of America’s closest allies amid the ongoing war raging across Gaza. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson has welcomed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the Capitol, calling it a “very important time” for the Israeli leader’s visit. 

“This is a very important time,” Johnson said, adding, “Our bipartisan congressional leadership recognized it as such and invited him here.” 

According to CNN, at least 50 Democratic lawmakers are planning to ‘miss’ Netanyahu’s address to Congress. 

“Dozens of members of Democrats are expected to skip Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress on Wednesday afternoon. Some are boycotting, others are attending a series of counter-programming events, and several cited scheduling conflicts as the reason.” – CNN 

Republicans are currently criticizing Vice President Harris for also planning to skip the event. 

“The Vice President can’t be bothered to show up at the nation’s capital and the House chamber and to demonstrate the respect and courtesy that we thought was a given, but apparently not,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) said earlier. 

Cornyn added, “I think it’s absolutely disgraceful that the most senior members of the Democratic Party have chosen to give the Heisman to one of our closest allies in the Middle East.”

Elon Musk is even attending. 

🚨 JUST IN: Elon Musk has now CONFIRMED he is at the US Capitol to Israeli PM Netanyahu speech to a joint session of Congress

Interesting! pic.twitter.com/3nZ3P4MCG4

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 24, 2024

Meanwhile, outside of the Capitol Building… 

A terrorist flag is being flown at a protest near the Capitol building in DC.

The only flag that should be flown is the UNITED STATES FLAG. pic.twitter.com/8q4RCgMHDF

— Graham Allen (@GrahamAllen_1) July 24, 2024

Breaking: pro-Palestinian activists have shut down a major intersection outside of the Capitol Building while chanting “Globalize the intifada.”

They are a direct security threat to Capitol Hill. pic.twitter.com/O6vXNpNS5M

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) July 24, 2024

CNN notes that Hostages Families Forum has urged Netanyahu to open up to US lawmakers with the words: “There’s a deal.”

Without those words, “there will be neither victory nor revival,” the forum expressed.

Netanyahu’s speech comes at a critical juncture in the nine-month war. CNN cited US officials who expressed optimism about the potential for a deal that could free Hamas-held hostages and bring the conflict to the final chapter.

*    *    * 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington, DC, on Monday. Today, he plans to address Congress to strengthen American support for his multi-month war in Gaza to eliminate Hamas terrorists. Meanwhile, outside the Capitol Complex, thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters are set to participate in what organizers are calling a ‘day of rage.’ 

On Tuesday evening, X user Andy Ngo said, “A large mob has flooded the US Capitol one day ahead of the planned “Day of Rage” against Netanyahu’s visit to Congress.” 

Ngo said, “Far-left and Palestinian nationalist groups have announced plans to shut down Washington, DC in response to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking at the Capitol on July 24.” 

Breaking: A large mob has flooded the U.S. Capitol one day ahead of the planned “Day of Rage” against Netanyahu’s visit to Congress. pic.twitter.com/1BlVvOdn1S https://t.co/4HUKrf4IQx

— Andy Ngô 🏳️‍🌈 (@MrAndyNgo) July 23, 2024

Ahmad Abuznaid, executive director of the US Campaign for Palestinian Rights and organizer of the event, told BBC News that protesters will “make the statement that war criminals like Netanyahu are not welcome” in Washington. 

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson invited Netanyahu to give his first address to Congress in nine years. He is scheduled to address lawmakers at 1400 ET. Johnson has warned against demonstrations inside the House chamber, saying there would be arrests “if we have to do it.”

Hundreds of NYPD officers have been sent to Washington, D.C. to help local law enforcement maintain public safety for the planned leftist “Day of Rage” against Netanyahu on July 24. https://t.co/LU3lGWIsJX

— Andy Ngô 🏳️‍🌈 (@MrAndyNgo) July 24, 2024

Another protest organizer said, “More people are willing to get arrested this time” compared to previous demonstrations. 

“All the protests have shown a tone of rage, but this time is definitely different,” said one of the organizers with the Palestinian Youth Movement, adding, “It is our enemy, our primary enemy, they are inviting into the White House.”

Meanwhile, most leftist corporate media outlets are radio silent about the ‘day of rage’… Most likely because protests would generate bad optics for the presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Netanyahu is also due to speak with President Biden and VP Harris at the White House. Former President Trump announced on Tuesday that he will talk with Netanyahu later this week at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.

Do you feel like you work too much?

Curious about how long people work in other countries?

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu ranked OECD countries based on average working hours per year, as of 2023.

It reveals a wide gap between the longest and shortest-working countries, to the tune of 864 hours (36 days).

Note that this data is based on the average number of people in employment in each country, meaning it includes full- and part-time workers.

Data and Key Takeaways

All figures were sourced from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), an international organization that promotes policies to improve economic and social well-being. It has 38 member countries, though in this instance, data for all of them was not available.

For additional context, hourly figures were also converted to the number of eight-hour workdays.

At the top of this ranking are three countries from the Americas: Mexico, Costa Rica, and Chile.

This could be due to several reasons, including:

• Economic structure: Labor-intensive industries like agriculture play a large role in their economies

• Social policies: These countries may have less extensive social safety nets, meaning workers work more to compensate for the lack of government support

• Lower wages: Lower average wages in these countries can lead people to work longer hours to improve their living standards

At the lower end of this ranking are a large number of European countries, particularly those with advanced economies. It should be noted that in the European Union (EU), all employees are entitled to at least four weeks paid holiday per year.

This is a stark contrast from the U.S., which is the only advanced economy in the world that does not guarantee paid holiday for workers.

One major outlier in this dataset is Greece, which ranked fourth at 1,897 average annual hours. The country has been struggling to boost economic growth, and more than 500,000 people have left the country since its debt crisis in 2009.

It was recently announced that Greece would be allowing certain employers to introduce a six-day work week.

If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out Ranked: The Cities with the Best Work-Life Balance in the World.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Kiev Mayor Vitaly Klitschko, who’s emerged as one of Zelensky’s top rivals over the past year, speculated in an interview with Italy’s Corriere Della Serra over the weekend that the Ukrainian leader might agree to territorial compromises with Russia. In his words, “Will he…consider a territorial compromise with Putin?…Zelensky will probably have to resort to a referendum. I don’t think he can reach such painful and important agreements on his own without popular legitimacy.”

Klitschko also echoed Atlantic Council senior fellow Adrian Karatnycky’s demand from mid-December for Zelensky to create a “government of national unity” by suggesting that this could help disperse responsibility for unpopular decisions like mobilization and thus ease their implementation. His interview couldn’t have been more perfectly timed since it coincided with the signals that Ukraine sent over the past week about its newfound semi-seriousness in reviving peace talks with Russia as explained here.

To summarize for the reader’s convenience, the US’ political uncertainty, the Ukrainian Conflict’s military-strategic dynamics continuing to favor Russia, and the growing attractiveness of China as a mediator combined to influence Zelensky to send his top diplomat to Beijing. This will be Kuleba’s first trip there since 2022, which followed the first such trip to Kiev by the Vatican’s top diplomat during this same period, thus advancing the scenario of China and the EU (via the Vatican) jointly hosting peace talks.

This is precisely what Orban proposed in his peace mission report for the EU, but since he’s considered by the Eurocrats to be too toxic to associate with, they’d prefer relying on the Vatican as their backchannel for exploring Kiev’s interest in this possibility instead. Zelensky knows that China doesn’t support his maximalist objectives in this conflict, but it’s also not in favor of Russia’s either, so his decision to dispatch Kuleba to Beijing hints at an emerging interest to have it broker a compromise.

Accordingly, this could take the form of freezing the conflict along the Line of Contact (LOC), but without rescinding Kiev’s claims to Russian-controlled territory within Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders. He couldn’t realistically agree to this though without a referendum after the enormous costs that his country already paid. Klitschko sensed that something of the sort might soon be afoot even before Kuleba’s trip to Beijing was announced (his interview’s publication narrowly preceded it) and that’s why he shared what he did.

Nobody should have any false expectations about this happening anytime soon, let alone assuming that Russia would agree to it after President Putin said last month that no cessation of hostilities is possible without Ukraine first withdrawing from all the territory that Moscow now claims as its own. Even in the event that Kiev voluntarily complied, which is unlikely, then the Kremlin would likely also want other aspects of its national security interests to be ensured as well such as demilitarization and the like.

In any case, it could form a starting point for resuming dialogue with Russia, even if it’s only initially conducted via mediators like China and/or the EU (albeit via the Vatican instead of Orban). Zelensky knows that he won’t reconquer his country’s lost territory no matter what he says for the purpose of keeping morale high, hence the need to informally explore a compromise for ending the conflict in the most politically “face-saving” way possible, thus explaining Klitschko’s referendum speculation.

This graphic ranks European countries by the percentage share of those 25–29 years old living with their parents, as sourced from Eurostat (2023).

Importantly, as Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao explains below, part of the metric tracked is “persons benefiting from or contributing to the household income.”

This means that cases where adult children support aging parents are also factored into this dataset.

Where Do Europeans Adults Live With Their Parents?

In Croatia and Montenegro, nearly 80% of adults aged 25–29 adults live at home. Interestingly, in neighboring Serbia this metric drops to 69%.

*Data from 2022.

Figures rounded. Information unavailable for Iceland, UK, North Macedonia, Albania, Kosovo, and Türkiye.

Cross-referencing this dataset with the average age Europeans move out reveals correlations. A higher average moving out age corresponds with a greater percentage share of 25–29 year old adults at home.

And the Balkan countries rank in the top few spots in both. Part of it is the economy. The Balkans generally have a per-capita GDP that is half the EU average. Local rents are expensive compared to local wages.

Adding to that, the homeownership rate in the Balkans is also the highest across Europe, indicating that children inherit the family home or move out only when they can afford to buy homes themselves.

Meanwhile, in Serbia and Montenegro, nearly half the households are “financially fragile,” indicating the level of savings is also low. In such cases moving out and renting might be seen as an unaffordable luxury.

Correspondingly, as one moves north and west across to higher per capita GDPs in Europe, the share of adults living with parents drops. In the Nordics, fewer than 10% of adults in this age bracket live with their parents.

One major exception to the rule is Ireland, where more than half of those aged 25–29 still live at home.

Authored by Connor Freeman via The Libertarian Institute,

As NATO escalates its proxy war in Ukraine and inches closer to fighting directly with Russia, the Washington-led bloc is embracing mandatory military service. Many European members of NATO have expanded or reintroduced conscription as part of large-scale preparations for such a war, CNN reports. Already outpaced in terms of military industrial capacity by Russia, the alliance’s new battleplans will see an attempt to beef up weapons production and form 35-50 brigades of 3,000-7,000 battle ready troops.

Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has insisted, “Today, we have 500,000 troops on high readiness, combat-ready battlegroups in the eastern part of the Alliance for the first time.” But the bloc is struggling to meet its goals of assembling 300,000 soldiers prepared to be activated within a month and another half a million in six months. There is also a question of whether the bloc can filed a military fit for a protracted war akin to the Ukraine conflict.

Following the end of the Cold War, several European states ceased conscripting their citizens. Although increasing numbers of NATO member countries have resorted to the draconian practice during recent years, especially in the Baltics and Scandinavia. Roughly a third of the NATO alliance practices some form of compulsory military service.

This year, for the first time since it was abolished in 2006, Latvia reimplemented its draft. Male citizens are subject to conscription within a year of turning 18 years old. Additionally, Norway has unveiled a long-term plan to increase its ranks of mandatorily conscripted troops, employees, and reservists by 20,000 as well as double the military budget. In 2015, Oslo became the first NATO government to establish a gender-neutral draft.

Lithuania brought back mandatory military service in 2015, each year drafting 3,500 to 4,000 men between the ages of 18-26 for a nine-month period. Although the Finnish Defense Forces employ only 13,000 people during peacetime, Helsinki claims it has the ability to activate over 900,000 reservists with 280,000 combat-ready troops. Sweden conscripts both men and women, Stockholm drafted 7,000 its citizens and the military expects to conscript 8,000 next year. The Swedes have had conscription since 1901.

Citing the supposed Russian threat to Europe, Robert Hamilton, the head of Eurasia Research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said “It is tragically true that here we are, in 2024, and we are grappling with the questions of how to mobilize millions of people to be thrown into a meatgrinder of a war potentially.” For 30 years, Hamiliton served as a US Army officer. “Meatgrinder” is a term often used by frontline troops in Ukraine, particularly during the battle of Bakhmut where the average life span of such a soldier was only a few hours.

In the United Kingdom, conscription is currently being pushed by Conservative MPs. The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act, the annual military spending bill, may include provisions which inter alia will seek to automatically register all eligible men and women for Selective Service, a form of conscripted labor, which could inevitably include military service.

Former Supreme Allied Commander of Europe General Wesley Clark echoed Hamilton’s hawkish sentiments, emphasizing “whether this is a new Cold War or an emerging hot war is unclear.” He added that NATO “must rebuild our defenses,” including with mandatory military drafts.

“I think young people in Europe and the US will come to realize that this generation, like the generation that fought WWII, it didn’t ask to be the ‘Greatest Generation’ but the circumstances thrust that burden on them,” Clark added.

The risk of direct war with Russia is growing by the day amidst the Ukraine proxy war, as the alliance has largely approved NATO missiles to be used for attacks against the Russian mainland. The bloc will soon provide Kiev with F-16s and an explicit green light for the warplanes to carry out direct strikes against Russian territory as well. Without irony, Stoltenberg claimed this should not be viewed by Russia as an escalation.

As NATO considers increasing its nuclear weapons deployments, the US is also planning to deploy previously banned, medium-range, nuclear capable missiles in Germany which has caused Russia to hint it could similarly retaliate. Pointing to the massive US-led buildup for war with China, President Vladimir Putin accused NATO of creating major security threats for Russia in Asia.

NATO set its sights on China four years ago, identifying Beijing as a military threat to European security. China maintains a “no limits” partnership with Russia. “NATO is already ‘moving’ there (to Asia) as if to a permanent place of residence. This, of course, creates a threat to all countries in the region, including the Russian Federation. We are obliged to respond to this and will do it,” Putin vowed earlier this year. That same month, Stoltenberg cited China as a reason the bloc is considering an “adaptation” of its nuclear arsenal.

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

There can hardly be a better place to track the four-day, twice-a-decade plenum of the Communist Party of China than dynamic, “one country, two systems” Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is right at the heart of East Asia – halfway between Northeast Asia (Japan, the Koreas) and Southeast Asia. To the west is not only China but the Eurasia landmass, linking it to India, Persia, Turkiye and Europe. To the east, sailing forward, is the Pacific and the US’s West Coast.

Moreover, Hong Kong is the ultimate multipolar, multi-nodal (italics mine) hub: a frenzied global metropolis forged by trade routes going back centuries, attracting people from every latitude keen on interconnecting commerce, ideas, technologies, shipping, commodities, markets.

Now, reinvented for 21stcentury Eurasia integration, Hong Kong has all it takes to profit as a key node of the Greater Bay Area, the southern hub propelling China to economic superpower status.

The plenum in Beijing was a quite serious/sober affair – trying to strike a balance between sustainable economic growth and national security all the way to 2029, when the PRC celebrates its 80th anniversary.

The proverbial comprador elites, 5th columnists and outright Sinophobes across the West have gone bonkers on the current slowdown of the Chinese economy – complete with slumps in the financial and property fronts – running in parallel to all hybrid war strands of Chinese containment emanating from Washington.

Fact: China’s GDP grew roughly 5% in the first semester; and the final plenum communique, released at the end of the four-day meeting, stressed that this should remain the “unwavering” target for the second semester.

The official rhetoric of course was heavy on stimulation of domestic consumption, and “new momentum” to drive exports and imports.

This key passage in the final communique breaks it all down when it comes to the new iteration of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”:

“We must purposefully give more prominence to reform and further deepen reform comprehensively with a view to advancing Chinese modernization in order to better deal with the complex developments both at home and abroad, adapt to the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and live up to the new expectations of our people.

It was stressed that, to further deepen reform comprehensively, we must stay committed to Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development and fully implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.

We must thoroughly study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s new ideas, viewpoints, and conclusions on comprehensively deepening reform and fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts.”

And to make it more simple, Xi actually explained it all in some detail.

Those Pesky ‘Markets’

Nowhere around the world one finds a government focused on devising five-year plans for economic development (Russia now seems to be engaged in its first attempts) – encompassing development of rural land, tax reform, environmental protection, national security, the fight against corruption, and cultural development.

When the term “reform” appears no less than 53 times in the final communique, that means – contrary to Western proselytism – that the CPC is dead set on improving governance and increasing efficiency. And all those targets must be met – otherwise heads will roll.

Science and technology will once again have pride of place in China’s development, a sort of follow-up to the Made in China 2025 strategy. The emphasis predictably will be on better integration of the digital economy into the real economy; infrastructure upgrading; and boosting “resilience” in the industrial supply chain.

It’s fascinating to watch how the communique emphasizes the necessity to “correct market failures” – which is a euphemism for reigning in turbo-neoliberalism. What is stressed is “unswerving support and guidance” to the development of the “non-state sector”, with Beijing ensuring “all forms of ownership” in the economy competing fairly and lawfully “on an equal footing”.

The plenum could be easily interpreted as a calculated exercise in Taoist patience. According to Xie Maosong, from the China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, “Xi said many times that the easy part of the reform is over, and now we are in uncharted waters. The party must watch its step, particularly as the external risks build. We are also touching the vested interests of many groups.”

Of course turbo-capitalist Hong Kong’s main obsession is “markets”. Conversations with British traders scouting Asia for their clients reveal they are not so keen on investing in China – yet that does not faze Beijing’s planners. What matters for the Politburo is how to meet the economic, social, environmental and geopolitical targets set by Xi for the next five years. It’s up to the markets to adapt to it.

Of course Beijing planners are already factoring Trump in the overall equation. The Western mantra that China’s economy is struggling to stabilize may be debatable. Yet China’s economy may be in fact in a more precarious position now than when Trump unleashed his trade war in mid-2018. The yuan may seem to be under more pressure because of the gap between US and Chinese borrowing costs.

According to a JPMorgan estimate, every 1% tariff hike during the 2018-2019 period of the US-launched trade war was linked to a 0.7% rise of the US dollar versus the yuan.

Trump plans to impose a 60% tariff on virtually all Chinese products.

That would lead to an exchange rate of roughly 9 yuan to the dollar, 25% weaker than now.

Now Read the Whole Thing and Get to Work

It’s enlightening to check what Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee, said about the plenum. He encouraged “all sectors of the community” to read the communique. And the Hong Kong business elite did get the drift: they interpreted it as Beijing betting once again on Hong Kong’s key role for the development of the Greater Bay Area.

It would not be any other way. Hong Kong, Lee stressed, is a “superconnector” and “super value-adder”, linking mainland China with the Global North and the Global South, and still attracting all sorts of foreign investment to China.

Now compare it with the predominant view on Hong Kong in US business circles. The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong is appalled, stressing how US businessmen in fact don’t understand the Safeguarding National Security directive approved last March, which complemented the National Security Law installed by Beijing in 2020.

For Beijing, these are very serious matters of national security – which range from a crackdown on money laundering to preventing the proverbial 5th columnists from launching a color revolution such as the one that nearly destroyed Hong Kong in 2019. No wonder so many American investors cannot get it. Beijing couldn’t care less.

Now let’s see what China’s top mutual fund manager has to say about it.

Zhang Kun, manager of Blue Chip Mixed Fund, runs four funds with combined assets of $8.9 billion. He prefers to set his sights on Beijing’s aim to boost per capita GDP to match the West by 2035.

If that happens, with or without a US trade war – and the Chinese won’t stop at nothing to achieve it – then per capita GDP could be around $ 30,000 (it was $12,300 last year, according to Chinese think tanks).

So foreign investment will continue to be welcomed in China, via Hong Kong or not. But on each and every front, what trumps everything is national security. Call it a practical exercise in sovereignty.