Scientists from the University of Birmingham in England have detected the “first rumblings”—or first indications—that the sun’s next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 26, will begin by the decade’s end.
The current cycle, Cycle 25, has reached what scientists call a “solar maximum,” when the sun’s magnetic field flips and its poles swap places. This peak is known for elevated solar activity, including sunspots, flares, and coronal mass ejections.
Researchers from Birmingham recently presented the new data at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting in Hull. The data shows the first signs that the next solar cycle is beginning.
Astronomers use the sun’s internal sound waves to measure how it rotates, making visible a pattern of bands (solar torsional oscillation) that rotate slightly faster or slower. These move towards the sun’s equator and its poles during the activity cycle.
The faster-rotation belts tend to show up before the next solar cycle officially begins. -researchers
Research leader Rachel Howe from Birmingham noted a ‘faint indication’ is beginning to show up after analyzing the pattern of the sun’s bands (solar torsional oscillation). The faster-rotation belts tend to show up before the next solar cycle arrives.
“If you go back one solar cycle – 11 years – on the plot, you can see something similar that seems to join up with the shape that we saw in 2017. It went on to be a feature of the present solar cycle, Cycle 25,” said Dr. Howe.
Researchers have been analyzing solar torsional oscillation patterns on the sun using helioseismic data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory since the mid-1990s. This data now covers Solar Cycles 23, 24, and 25, allowing researchers better to understand the precursors to the next solar cycle.
Howe has been a student of the stars for 25 years, studying the sun’s rotation through GONG and MDI data.
“With more data, I hope we can understand more about the part these flows play in the intricate dance of plasma and magnetic fields that form the solar cycle,” she concluded.
Several studies (one here) have suggested the sun will experience a new grand solar minimum between 2030 and 2040. This could decrease solar activity, similar to the Maunder minimum in the 17th century. At that time, Earth experienced a period of global cooling known as the Little Ice Age.
But in the meantime, the Tonga eruption in 2022 appears to have fueled global warming, not cow farts or Taylor Swift’s private jet.
Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, alongside other senior officials and agency leaders, have issued a joint statement firmly defending female Secret Service agents during the July 13 assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.
“In the days following the attempted assassination of former President Trump, some people have made public statements questioning the presence of women in law enforcement, including in the United States Secret Service,” reads the July 20 statement.
“These assertions are baseless and insulting.”
Besides Mr. Mayorkas, the statement was endorsed by 10 other senior Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials, including Kimberly Cheatle, director of the U.S. Secret Service, who will appear Monday on Capitol Hill to answer questions about the assassination attempt.
The attempted assassination of former President Trump has raised questions about how 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks managed to position himself on a rooftop with a clear line of sight to the former president, whose ear was injured by a bullet.
The shooting brought the Secret Service director’s stated interest in hiring more women into the spotlight.
“I’m very conscious, as I sit in this chair now, of making sure that we need to attract diverse candidates, ensure that we are developing opportunities for everybody in our workforce, and particularly women,” Ms. Cheatle told CBS News in an interview last year.
An array of commentators, including some Republican lawmakers, focused explicitly on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies at the Secret Service, claiming that such programs have undermined its mission.
“Under Director Cheatle’s failed leadership, the United States Secret Service has prioritized woke DEI policies over the core responsibilities of the Secret Service, including protecting our nation’s leaders,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) said in a statement, while introducing a bill to hold Ms. Cheatle accountable for allowing the gunman to fire off several shots—including one that grazed former President Trump’s ear—before being killed by police snipers.
Ms. Boebert’s bill would prohibit “any federal funds from being used to pay the salary or expenses” of Ms. Cheatle.
Earlier in the week, the Secret Service’s chief of communication, Anthony Guglielmi, called out the “baseless assertions” that agents are unqualified.
“As an elite law enforcement agency, all of our agents and officers are highly trained and fully capable of performing our missions,” Mr. Guglielmi said in a statement provided to some news outlets.
“It is an insult to the women of our agency to imply that they are unqualified based on gender. Such baseless assertions undermine the professionalism, dedication and expertise of our workforce.”
The Saturday statement from Mr. Mayorkas and other top DHS officials appeared to focus most acutely on the line of criticism against women being on the front lines in the Secret Service.
“Every single day, in communities big and small across our great country, women are serving in federal, state, local, tribal, territorial, and campus law enforcement,” the joint statement reads.
“They are highly trained and skilled professionals, who risk their lives on the front lines for the safety and security of others. They are brave and selfless patriots who deserve our gratitude and respect.”
Mr. Mayorkas and the other officials added that DHS will continue to recruit, retain, and elevate women in our law enforcement ranks and take “great pride” in doing so.
“Our Department will be the better for it, and our country more secure,” the statement said.
Former President Trump has thanked the agents who were at the rally and praised members of the security team.
“They did a fantastic job,” he told the New York Post on Sunday.
“It’s surreal for all of us.”
The former president’s son, Eric Trump, went further, offering praise for the female agents in particular.
“I know all those agents on stage and they’re the greatest people ever,” Eric Trump told MSNBC on July 16.
“The female that’s in the picture, she was with me for a very long time and she’s one of the greatest human beings you would ever meet.”
Besides injuring former President Trump, the gunman critically wounded two men and killed one.
Dems Go Full Throttle On Kamala After Biden Drops Out Of 2024 Race
Update (1630ET): And just like that, the Democratic party has gone all-in for Kamala Harris – who did so poorly in the 2020 election that she dropped out before the primaries. Just hours after Biden’s campaign manager insisted he wasn’t leaving the race.
Just this morning, Biden’s campaign chair said he wasn’t leaving the race. Then Biden suddenly posts a resignation letter with no address to the country. Wreaks of a coup. https://t.co/snB2iu7qeW
Now the question turns to who’s going to be her VP pick. Newsweek suggests these as top-5 candidates:
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
A rising Democratic star, Josh Shapiro is often floated as a possible running mate for Harris. He governs a major battleground state and could help Harris make inroads among voters in the Keystone State.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
Roy Cooper’s governorship has been a sign of hope for Democrats in the Tar Heel state.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Gretchen Whitmer’s name has long been floated as a possible presidential candidate, and a Harris-Whitmer ticket would mark the first all-women ticket in history, which Pitney described as “intriguing.”
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear
Andy Beshear impressed many Democrats when he won a second term in the conservative state last year.
California Governor Gavin Newsom
Newsom has become one of the most nationally recognizable figures within the Democratic Party.
According to Polymarket, Shapiro is the top contender.
I have zero faith in election integrity at this point.
The bureaucratic state had to get rid of Joe because selling the steal was not possible.
Gear up for the greatest propaganda campaign ever to sell Harris (or whoever) to the people then election night shenanigans.
Harris issued a statement following her endorsement, which reads like Joe isn’t about to serve out the rest of his term:
“On behalf of the American people, I thank Joe Biden for his extraordinary leadership as President of the United States and for his decades of service to our country. His remarkable legacy of accomplishment is unmatched in modern American history, surpassing the legacy of many Presidents who have served two terms in office.
“It is a profound honor to serve as his Vice President, and I am deeply grateful to the President, Dr. Biden, and the entire Biden family. I first came to know President Biden through his son Beau. We were friends from our days working together as Attorneys General of our home states. As we worked together, Beau would tell me stories about his Dad. The kind of father—and the kind of man—he was. And the qualities Beau revered in his father are the same qualities, the same values, I have seen every single day in Joes leadership as President: His honesty and integrity. His big heart and commitment to his faith and his family. And his love of our country and the American people.
“I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination. Over the past year, I have traveled across the country, talking with Americans about the clear choice in this momentous election. And that is what I will continue to do in the days and weeks ahead. I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party—and unite our nation—to defeat Donald Trump and his extreme Project 2025 agenda.“
Of course, if you mention that Harris’s career started out underneath Willie Brown, you might get called out by Scary Poppins…
1. Sexualized narratives, claiming Harris “slept her way to the top,” or that she is sexually promiscuous. In 2020 we found that users engaging with this narrative were more likely to engage with other abuse and disinfo. They attempted to undermine her fitness for office (2/) pic.twitter.com/7OOeU83MTF
In response to Biden’s announcement, Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison promised a “transparent and orderly” process to choose the party’s next nominee.
“The American People owe President Biden an enormous debt of gratitude for the unparalleled progress he has delivered over the last four years — and we will honor that legacy, and the decision that he has made today, through a firm commitment to nominating and electing a Democratic president this November who will carry that torch into the next four years,” Harrison said in a statement, adding that the process will follow established rules for the party, and that the delegates “are prepared to take seriously their responsibility in swiftly delivering a candidate to the American people.”
“As we move forward to formally select our Party’s nominee, our values as Democrats remain the same — lowering costs, restoring freedom, protecting the rights of all people, and saving our democracy from the threat of dictatorship. We have and will continue to make this case to the American people.”
Also…
Obama calling for an open convention. This is Game of Thrones / House of Cards level power games. We love it. How exciting. https://t.co/ehiQmjN2gr
I’ve known Obama since 1995. We both come out of Chicago politics. I know how it works. He’s behind the campaign to dump 15 million Dem primary voters & replace Biden with his choice. Classic Chicago Democrat machine politics. Selection over election. The bosses over the people. pic.twitter.com/5ibvaX9IzP
1. Joe lapses into a coma
2. Panicked staff and party honchos forge a announcement by “Joe” that he’s dropping out
3. Joe suddenly bolts up from coma, revealing he was faking everything to flush out traitors
4. Vengeful Dark Brandon orders no-mercy purge
5. Wins in landslide pic.twitter.com/kDGgW9W2Sn
President Joe Biden is dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, has endorsed Kamala Harris, and will “focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”
He also won’t address the nation about it until sometime next week (after his next blood transfusion, we assume?).
And while 81 million voters are surely crestfallen, Kamala Harris’ odds of being the 2024 Democratic nominee naturally spiked. Roughly 30 minutes after Biden announced he was leaving the race, his social media team followed up with an endorsement of Harris.
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.
And of course, if Biden can’t run, how can he remain president?
Shortly after Biden’s announcement, House Speaker Mike Johnson posted on X:
Rgardless of the chaos in the current White House, our adversaries around the globe should be reminded that the U.S. Congress, the U.S. military, and the American people are fully prepared and committed to defend our interests both at home and abroad.
If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President. He must resign the office immediately. November 5 cannot arrive soon enough.
Johnson, ever cautious, is a little late to the game:
If Joe Biden ends his reelection campaign, how can he justify remaining President?
Not running for reelection would be a clear admission that President Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally fit enough to serve as Commander-in-Chief.
The decision of Joe Biden to withdraw from his reelection bid raises the obvious question of how he can continue as president if he is incapable of running for that office. The Democratic Party seems to have created its own 25th Amendment, but there remains the “other” 25th Amendment.
This is a type of 25th-lite option where you lack capacity to run but not to serve for an office.
It also focuses attention on the efforts of Democrats to drop any challengers or hold any debates through the primary as millions voted for Biden. Holding a party “primary” in a matter of weeks is hardly a substitute for a primary campaign to expose candidates to prolonged.
The problem for the White House is the glaring disconnect between pulling out of the election but holding on to the office. Pulling out as simply politically incapable of winning makes a mockery of the unopposed primary process.
Yet, pulling out do to diminished capacity makes a mockery of his political office. There is a striking lack of clarity on the basis for this historic action…
Read Biden’s message below:
My Fellow Americans,
Over the past three and a half years, we have made great progress as a Nation.
Today, America has the strongest economy in the world. We’ve made historic investments in rebuilding our Nation, in lowering prescription drug costs for seniors, and in expanding affordable health care to a record number of Americans. We’ve provided critically needed care to a million veterans exposed to toxic substances. Passed the first gun safety law in 30 years. Appointed the first African American woman to the Supreme Court. And passed the most significant climate legislation in the history’ of the world. America has never been better positioned to lead than we are today.
I know none of this could have been done without you. the American people. Together, we overcame a once in a century pandemic and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. We’ve protected and preserved our Democracy. And we’ve revitalized and strengthened our alliances around the world.
It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection. I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.
I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision.
For now, let me express my deepest gratitude to all those who have worked so hard to see me reelected. I want to thank Vice President Kamala Harris for being an extraordinary partner in all this work. And let me express my heartfelt appreciation to the American people for the faith and trust you have placed in me.
I believe today what I always have: that there is nothing America can’t do – when we do it together. We just have to remember we are the United States of America.
Trump has responded to the news, posting the following on Truth Social:
Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve – And never was! He only attained the position of President by lies, Fake News, and not leaving his Basement. All those around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t – And now, look what he’s done to our Country, with millions of people coming across our Border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
The announcement came after in intense pressure campaign, after new polling showed that 60% of Americans said Biden should drop out.
The opposition included virtually the entire Democratic party – from Pelosi down, and even former Democrat (now independent) Sen. Joe Manchin, the deep state, and Democratic donors – who began pausing funds after last month’s horrific debate between Biden and Donald Trump – and most recently led by a call from Mike Novogratz to replace Biden.
“The Democratic donor base will be re-energized if there’s a fair process to pick the next candidate,” said Novogratz, the billionaire founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings, who added that if Democrats pick a centrist replacement through a nomination process, “there are a tremendous amount of donors who will cut checks.”
According to veteran Democrat operative James Carville in a statement to Semafor last week, “This I can confirm. Donors in revolt.“
“Campaigns are expensive. Sadly, the George Clooney check-writing crowd opposed to Biden remaining in the race might win out,” Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf told Newsweek in response to a recent NYT op-ed by the actor.
“He who controls the gold might make the rules, making the Democrats no different from the Republicans,” he added.
The decision to drop out came after the Clintons were reportedly privately urging Democrat donors to keep giving to Biden as long as he remains the presumptive nominee.
One of the sources said the Clintons are choosing to be “deferential to Biden’s decision.” However, the second source, who is familiar with the Clintons’ thinking and has spoken with the couple in recent days, insisted that it is more accurate to say they are “deferential to the process.”
According to this source, the Clintons have made clear in private conversations recently that it doesn’t matter what anybody says or thinks — unless Biden decides he will drop out of the 2024 race or the delegates vote for somebody else, he is the party’s presumptive nominee. -CNN
Deep State Displeased
On Friday, NBC News reported that “More than four dozen former foreign and national security officials call on Biden to drop out of race” – so the deep state is officially negative on Biden.
“We write as former U.S. officials who have strongly supported your presidency and your initiatives to strengthen U.S. foreign and national security policy,” they wrote in a letter. “We strongly believe that now is the time to pass the mantle of leadership, and we respectfully urge you to do so.”
While Biden just endorsed Harris, Democrat delegates are under no obligation to support her. That said, if she is the nominee, who will she pick as her running mate?
It’s an almost spiritual observation that we’ve all seen within ourselves. After acquiring some, learning how it works, and to various degrees delving into what this decentralized, uncensorable, proof-of-work money is, we’ve seen our lives change. It echoes history. Some people see god in it.
Bitcoiners have had their lives upended, their perspectives shifted, and their value systems altered. We see how our behavior changed from our pre-Bitcoin selves, our emphasis now squarely placed on real things, hard things, the long term, and the local. We look to our inner selves, and we look after ourselves. We see to our families. We set our own house in order before we criticize the world.
Bitcoin encourages higher-level thinking, of the dynamic kind that once characterized good economics. Once a Bitcoiner, we become less prone to believing commonly accepted just-so stories — more skeptical and interested in verifying rather than trusting.
Anyone who’s been in Bitcoin for a while can point to countless such examples in their own lives. It’s undeniable, therefore, that Bitcoin itself has a culture. It affects change in the people it welcomes; you don’t change Bitcoin, Bitcoin changes you.
The values embedded in it are rules that people who embrace this monetary revolution can’t help but internalize. Whether they understand it or not is unimportant. Bitcoin is for anyone, sure, but you don’t stay that same person after Bitcoin has changed your life; you’re a different “anyone” than when you first opened your fiat eyes.
Bitcoin allowed us to see much of the stupidity of the collective delusions at the base of the state, democracy, central banks, public health, public schooling — public anything, really. It’s the same realization that makes us put huge question marks on climate change worries or trans ideology.
In the world of fiat, anything goes.
You can unverifiably feel oppressed, a man can unverifiably be a woman, anyone who’s sad or distracted can unverifiably feel autistic or depressed. If the lord of the printing press doesn’t feel like there’s enough money around, he makes more. Violently extorting productive members of society is held as a morally good thing and celebrated. The experts and fiat media voices say the world ends in twelve (or five) years, and if you disbelieve them or ask for verification, you’re on par with the Nazis.
In Bitcoin, this playbook doesn’t fly anymore. Identifying as receiving a block reward does nothing, political votes become irrelevant, nobody’s unverifiable feelings reign supreme, and cheating gets harder. UTXOs don’t have a sex. It all goes out the window, revealed and denuded for the nonsense it always was.
Thus, something doesn’t add up in Margot Paez’s recent article thrashing Bitcoin culture.
She writes:
“…popular influencers who are often millennial men spending a lot of time taking photos of themselves flexing their muscles in front of a mirror. I really wonder how big those muscles have to get to protect the fragile ego buried beneath those muscular fibers.”
Big muscles are flexes because they’re unfakeable – like a hash under the difficulty target. A transaction is valid and confirmed or it isn’t. It’s right there, objective, and verifiable to anyone who cares to look.
Pull-ups are flexes because they display truth, regardless of what anyone else thinks about an invisible ego beneath. You can do them, or you can’t; they’re verifiable and undeniable. A muscle-up doesn’t askfor permission or tries to confuse you about nuances to an imagined reality.
This stands in contrast to the fiat, legacy world — of which trans ideology is merely one of the least material but verifiably stupid examples — where words are violence, invisible and unverifiable identities rule, fiat schools can’t teach people to read or count, Uber doesn’t have any cars, and the banks don’t have your money. It’s a broken culture, where the only thing running away faster than the deaths of despair are the deficits in a profligate Treasury, forever bound to send welfare checks to rent-seekers.
It’s a culture dominated by sensitivity instead of truth, that celebrates weakness instead of strength and responsibility and self-improvement, that encourages therapy even though it barely works and shoves you pharmacy-full of meds and injections at the first sign of trouble.
That’s why I’m not sold on this “Progressive Bitcoiner” ethos flying around. Progressives came to Bitcoin and carved out a niche for themselves, and for now that works well as a bridge over from the hyper-leftwing clown world to our world. But you won’t be a Bitcoiner and long remain a progressive; they’re mostly incompatible ideas.
Progressivism came to Bitcoin as a breath of fresh air, but it will ultimately die here.
Bitcoin strips a government of control over transactions and economic value. A progressive requires a large and invasive government to uphold and enact the many things they yearn for. If you still want those goodies, but not the violent organized crime syndicate we call government, you’re merely a libertarian with a strong social ethos. Congrats. I’ve said so before regarding Jason Maier’sA Progressive’s Case for Bitcoin, and I maintain that in time Bitcoin will change him too, like it has the rest of us.
Bitcoin sooner or later forces you into seeing the world of truth and acting in unfakeable ways, looking to what is rather than what’s voiced or recommended by “experts.” On the way there one usually complains loudly about the mean Bitcoiners not seeing the world you do.
It’s not a coincidence that so many Bitcoiners proudly and diligently consume steak. We saw that the nutritional guidelines were gunk (some might even say corrupt), and the people pushing them were obese, ill, and ugly. We ate a bunch of meat and felt better. Do I look unhealthy to you?! we ceremoniously ask.
The LGBTQ flags that Paez defends sit next to flags with “Free Palestine” — even though Palestinians aren’t exactly known for their pro-gay values — and “Slava Ukraini,” celebrating a country that scores among the worst on the Rainbow Europe index and routinely counts as Europe’s second most corrupt country (behind Russia). These are not serious people. You know something is rotten when originally peace-loving leftists celebrate the very warmongering people they should detest.
The ultimate shit-test is the clown world shitshow, not Bitcoiner culture. In fact, the truth and honesty in Bitcoin culture is the antidote.
The Paris Olympics are estimated to cost over $9 billion to host, making them one of the less expensive Summer Olympic Games in recent memory.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu, lists the estimated cost of hosting the Olympics (Summer and Winter) in 2021 USD. It goes back to the 1996 Atlanta Summer Olympics.
The cost of hosting the Olympics has varied massively in recent years, from Sochi’s $59.7 billion to Salt Lake City’s $2.9 billion (2021 USD).
One of the biggest costs associated with hosting the Olympics is infrastructure. This includes sports facilities such as arenas and general infrastructure like housing and transportation.
This is typically higher for summer games, which can attract hundreds of thousands of tourists.
The International Olympic Committee requires cities to have at least 40,000 hotel rooms for spectators and an Olympic Village that can house 15,000 athletes and officials.
As a result, despite generating billions of dollars in revenue, the Olympics can leave a negative legacy for a host city if not carefully planned or executed.
For example, a report by the University of Birmingham concluded that the most expensive event – Sochi in 2014 – left the Russian resort vastly overdeveloped relative to its actual occupancy levels. The report estimates that over a billion dollars of follow-up investment is required to maintain the underused infrastructure, including transport networks, sporting venues, and hotels.
Democracy Really Is Dying in Darkness – But by Whom?
Never in modern presidential history has a political party staged a veritable inside coup to remove their current president from his ongoing candidacy for his party’s nomination and reelection.
Stranger still, the very elites and grandees, who now are using every imaginable means of deposing Biden as their nominee, are the very public voices that just weeks ago insisted that candidate Biden was “sharp as a tack” and “fit as a fiddle.” And they damned any who thought otherwise!
They are also the identical operators whose machinations ensured that there would not be an open Democratic primary. They demonized the few on the Left who weakly challenged Biden in the primaries. Yet now they will select a replacement candidate who likely never received a single primary vote.
Note further: Biden’s impending forced abdication is not because he is non compos mentis.
Rather, the inside move is due to Biden’s disastrous debate exposure that confirmed his dementia could no longer be disguised by a conspiracy of leftist politicos and media.
But far more importantly, the impetus for removal is driven by the admission that the cognitively Biden is headed for a climactic November defeat.
Were Biden now ahead in the polls by five points, these same backroom machinists would be insisting that he was still Pericles.
Yet now Biden is being un-personed and Trotskyized, as we prepare the new groupthink narrative of his likely surrogate—a soon to be praised eloquent, mellifluous, and articulate Cicero-Harris.
That Biden will likely remain as president until January 20, 2025, should remind the country the Left is more worried about its own next four-year continuance in power than the fate of the country that now admittedly will be guided in the next six months by a president judged unfit by his own supporters to run for the very office that he will still keep holding.
Further irony arises when those who, as supposedly guardians of democratic norms, pontificated to the country the last nine years about the Trump-Hitlerian threat to democracy. Yet now they so cavalierly work overtime on how:
a) to pull off the removal of their candidate from the November ballot on grounds of senility,
b) but not the removal of the same president from office (their own fate is more precious than our collective fate as a nation),
c) while trying to select, rather than elect, a replace candidate,
d) without ever offering any explanation, much less an apology, how a Democrat president from January 20, 2021, was daily declared vibrant, dynamic, and engaged but suddenly one day after June 27, 2024, was remanufactured as not?
Perhaps as an aid and primer on Biden removal they should reread the essay by former Obama Pentagon official Rosa Books. Just 11 days after the Trump inauguration, she published in Foreign Policy, “3 Ways to Get Rid of President Trump Before 2020”.
It was a veritable manual on the various ways of removing the just inaugurated president – listing immediate alternatives to the distant 2020 election: impeachment and conviction, 25th-Amendment removal, and, barring all that, a military coup:
“The fourth possibility is one that until recently I would have said was unthinkable in the United States of America: a military coup, or at least a refusal by military leaders to obey certain orders.”
So, to make sense of what these self-appointed and sanctimonious protectors of democracy are trying to pull off demands an Orwellian vocabulary—memory hole, newspeak, unperson, and groupthink.
Yet there is one more irony.
Very soon, those who welcomed the protests of summer 2020 radicals, and exempted the rioting and violence, and then again did nothing in 2024 as mobs tore apart campuses and shut down public facilities, will host a Chicago convention – where those very same liberated forces may wreak havoc on the outside, while their backroom progenitors, with threats, money, and the media, will wreak havoc on democracy on the inside.
Houthis Warn ‘No Red Lines’ In Counterattack After Israel Bombs Yemeni Port
Israel confirmed on Sunday its military forces launched a retaliatory airstrike on the Hodeida Port, a key Yemeni port on the Red Sea and the second largest in the country.
Al Hudaydah port in Yemen keeps burning and all their oil reserves are going up in flames, more than 24 hours after Israel’s bombing 👇
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Hodeida port was the “entry point for weapons that Iran supplies to its Houthi terrorist proxies. The Houthis have used those weapons to attack Israel, to attack Arab states in the region, to attack many others.”
From the beginning of the war, I made it clear that Israel will act against all attackers, which is why we struck Houthi targets in Yemen yesterday in response to the deadly drone attack near the US Consulate in Tel Aviv.
— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) July 21, 2024
Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for The Times of Israel, posted on X satellite images from Israeli intelligence and imagery firm ImageSat that show extensive damage at the Hodeida port.
The Israeli strike came one day after Iran-backed Houthis hit Tel Aviv with a drone for the first time, killing one person and injuring several others.
In response to the port attack, which killed three people and wounded 80, rebel spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam told Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV, who was cited by Times of Israel and Reuters staff, as saying there will be “no red lines” in the next attack on Israel.
“All sensitive institutions with all its levels will be a target for us,” Abdulsalam told Al Jazeera.
Separately, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree warned the terror group’s “response to the Israeli aggression against our country is inevitably coming and will be huge.”
Over the last nine months, rebel forces have fired over 220 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Israel in support of Gaza, where Israel has been fighting Hamas terrorists.
Houthis have also targeted Western-linked vessels, including container ships and crude tankers, in the critical maritime chokepoint of the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
What’s clear is that Houthi’s threat coverage is expanding, something we told readers was possible at the start of May.
A recent note by David Asher, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former State Department official in the Trump administration, warned that the next financial shock could potentially originate from the Middle East through the weaponization of crude oil by Iran.
On slide 29 of the report, Asher pointed out that Yemen’s Houthi rebels could begin targeting high-value oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. This would send Brent crude over the $100/bbl level quickly if Abqaiq were hit.
It is not often that a single title can apply to so many things.
Let’s start with Geopolitics, where:
How long can the war in Ukraine continue?
What is going to happen in the Middle East as it too seems to have reached a “stalemate” status?
The issues surrounding China and Taiwan and China and the Philippines seem to be at opposite ends of the spectrum, as we are getting more and more questions around the potential for “starting” conflicts, rather than questions about how it all ends.
Academy’s Geopolitical Webinar from Wednesday covered these and many other relevant geopolitical questions. Geopolitics as a tail risk was also discussed on Fox Business as a Bank of America survey of investors listed geopolitics as the biggest tail risk to markets.
We could discuss “folding ‘em” in terms of politics, but we won’t go into detail.
Former President Trump is no longer the “presumptive” nominee and is now the official nominee. J.D. Vance is his official running mate. While the Republican ticket has been finalized and the convention was widely viewed, it is too early to clearly identify what policies (that are being discussed) will have a real possibility of becoming laws after the election. While it is “fun” to play “what if games” in terms of policy (in the event of a Trump win), we will hold off on that for now. Figuring out what is a campaign promise, versus a real policy desire is difficult enough. Then, even if the Trump ticket wins, it will be important to see who wins the House and the Senate.
President Biden remains the presumptive nominee, but there are daily questions about that. Once that is definitively decided, we will need to know the vice-presidential candidate. In any event, all the reasons why we are not overly interested in predicting “what the economy will look like” if so and so wins apply to the Democratic ticket as well.
We will largely ignore “if this party wins” type of trades and market moves for now, with two exceptions:
We continue to like energy. The commitment to growing both traditional and new energy sources is real and is increasingly important to supporting AI and data centers. Also, owning energy related stocks and commodities remains our favorite “geopolitical tail risk” hedge.
We think yields, especially at the long end, will drift higher. Whatever the current takes are on various economic policies, we remain convinced that as the campaigns continue, it will become painfully obvious that no one cares about doing anything to stem the growth of the deficit. Yes, there will be all sorts of “offsets” for any spending plans or tax cuts to “keep the budget stable,” but they will be largely wishful thinking rather than anything that is likely to work in the real world.
We remain on heightened watch for a potential “surprise” or “wildcard” geopolitical event while the nation and the media is so focused on domestic issues.
Know When to Fold ‘Em – Markets
Let’s start with rates.
We continue to see 75 bps of cuts this year. The data is likely to support a cut by at least September, if not July. The data, in our view, already supports a July cut, but that is unlikely to occur.
One thing that is becoming extremely clear to everyone, and something that we’ve been pounding the table on for months, is that a rate cut ahead of the election will be portrayed as helping the incumbents by all those looking to oust the incumbents. The political backlash against a Fed cut, as undeserved as such backlash would be, could pose longer-term threats to how both America and monetary policy are viewed.
Having said that, the daily reminders that the deficit is heading higher are likely to take their toll on the long end of the yield curve. That rise in yields will be driven by a “normalization” of yield curves and a return to risk premium. First stop would be 0, then possibly as high as 20 bps between 2s and 10s. Also, I think that we can forever retire inverted yield curves as a very useful signal of an upcoming recession.
On the equity side we certainly saw “de-grossing” where hedge funds in particular scaled back both their longs and their shorts.
That helped contribute to a week where the S&P 500 lost 2%, the Nasdaq lost 3.7%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.7%. This follows our writing and views in Chips and the Russell 2000 vs S&P 500 Ratio, which were also presented in more detail in last weekend’s July – Breadth and Liquidity which really focused on the S&P 500 versus the equal weighted version of the S&P 500. That index was “only” down 0.1% on the week, outperforming the S&P 500 again, and narrowing the biggest gap that we’ve seen in a long, long time between the two indices.
It is difficult to believe that this week started with questions about the assassination attempt (which haven’t been fully answered), concerns about more sanctions surrounding chips, and even chatter about an imminent attack on Taiwan (which we saw no evidence of) and with the help of the Geopolitical Intelligence Group, responded with the view that it was some very misleading and out of context headlines from a Japanese annual defense report on China’s military activities around Taiwan.
All of this impacted markets, and we are left knowing that we had “de-grossing,” but we are questioning whether we have had “de-risking.”
De-grossing is cutting longs and shorts. Often “simplifying” complex portfolios. It tends to be a hedge fund/quant fund/CTA strategy. It can feed into “risk parity” strategies (strategies that attempt to harness the correlations and volatility of stocks, bonds, and commodities to generate alpha).
De-risking is actual selling. Where fear starts driving decisions. Where assets are sold, not to buy other assets, but to reduce leverage or risk.
IWM, a Russell 2000 ETF, for example, had large inflows starting late last week. Consistent with de-grossing or rotation, not risk aversion (though it also started to have outflows later in the week). In a similar vein, RSP, an Equal Weighted S&P 500 ETF, experienced inflows and has the most shares outstanding since it was launched in 2003.
Rotation and de-grossing are not de-risking. Which means that the investors (or “gamblers” using our theme of the day) are still holding ‘em.
Given:
Summer “liquidity” or lack thereof may concern investors.
More uncertainty and unprecedented events surrounding our election may not be an ideal backdrop for risk.
Heightened concern about geopolitical risk and activity across the globe is a threat.
There are indices with heavy concentrations of a few names, sitting near all-time highs, that have performed well year-to-date. The S&P is up 15% and the Nasdaq 100 is up 16% (seems low), which may promote profit taking. This would hit the “momentum” factor hard and produce more selling.
While it is early in the earnings season, we are trying to figure out results, versus what was expected, versus what happened to the stocks, and whether it was earnings related or just market noise. We may well be entering a period where the hurdles are quite high for stocks to perform on the backs of earnings.
You should watch out for investors who might be looking to “fold ‘em.”
The Nasdaq 100 is down almost 6% from recent highs and nearing its 50-day moving average (19,522 close versus 19,321 50 DMA). We could see the 100 DMA come into play (18,627) which would be another 5% drop from here, taking us to our 10% downside target.
Expect derisking, hands to fold, and while “rotation” sectors will outperform, we should have better entry points later this summer!
Bottom Line
Don’t count your money while you are sitting at the table. My sense is that too many are doing this with both bonds and stocks, leading to more selling than buying in the coming days and weeks!
While there is some debate about whether “The Gambler” is a country song, a crossover song, or just selling out, there can be no debate that the National Anthem sang before the home run derby at the All-Star game was an abysmal performance!
In any case, be prepared for more volatility in an illiquid market, which will amplify moves in either direction beyond what the news flow would justify.
Biden Drops Out Of 2024 Race But Will Remain Through Term; Endorses Harris As Resignation Calls Grow
President Joe Biden is dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, has endorsed Kamala Harris, and will “focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”
He also won’t address the nation about it until sometime next week (after his next blood transfusion, we assume?).
And while 81 million voters are surely crestfallen, Kamala Harris’ odds of being the 2024 Democratic nominee naturally spiked. Roughly 30 minutes after Biden announced he was leaving the race, his social media team followed up with an endorsement of Harris.
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.
And of course, if Biden can’t run, how can he remain president?
Shortly after Biden’s announcement, House Speaker Mike Johnson posted on X:
Rgardless of the chaos in the current White House, our adversaries around the globe should be reminded that the U.S. Congress, the U.S. military, and the American people are fully prepared and committed to defend our interests both at home and abroad.
If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President. He must resign the office immediately. November 5 cannot arrive soon enough.
Johnson, ever cautious, is a little late to the game:
If Joe Biden ends his reelection campaign, how can he justify remaining President?
Not running for reelection would be a clear admission that President Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally fit enough to serve as Commander-in-Chief.
The decision of Joe Biden to withdraw from his reelection bid raises the obvious question of how he can continue as president if he is incapable of running for that office. The Democratic Party seems to have created its own 25th Amendment, but there remains the “other” 25th Amendment.
This is a type of 25th-lite option where you lack capacity to run but not to serve for an office.
It also focuses attention on the efforts of Democrats to drop any challengers or hold any debates through the primary as millions voted for Biden. Holding a party “primary” in a matter of weeks is hardly a substitute for a primary campaign to expose candidates to prolonged.
The problem for the White House is the glaring disconnect between pulling out of the election but holding on to the office. Pulling out as simply politically incapable of winning makes a mockery of the unopposed primary process.
Yet, pulling out do to diminished capacity makes a mockery of his political office. There is a striking lack of clarity on the basis for this historic action…
Read Biden’s message below:
My Fellow Americans,
Over the past three and a half years, we have made great progress as a Nation.
Today, America has the strongest economy in the world. We’ve made historic investments in rebuilding our Nation, in lowering prescription drug costs for seniors, and in expanding affordable health care to a record number of Americans. We’ve provided critically needed care to a million veterans exposed to toxic substances. Passed the first gun safety law in 30 years. Appointed the first African American woman to the Supreme Court. And passed the most significant climate legislation in the history’ of the world. America has never been better positioned to lead than we are today.
I know none of this could have been done without you. the American people. Together, we overcame a once in a century pandemic and the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. We’ve protected and preserved our Democracy. And we’ve revitalized and strengthened our alliances around the world.
It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection. I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.
I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision.
For now, let me express my deepest gratitude to all those who have worked so hard to see me reelected. I want to thank Vice President Kamala Harris for being an extraordinary partner in all this work. And let me express my heartfelt appreciation to the American people for the faith and trust you have placed in me.
I believe today what I always have: that there is nothing America can’t do – when we do it together. We just have to remember we are the United States of America.
Trump has responded to the news, posting the following on Truth Social:
Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve – And never was! He only attained the position of President by lies, Fake News, and not leaving his Basement. All those around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t – And now, look what he’s done to our Country, with millions of people coming across our Border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
The announcement came after in intense pressure campaign, after new polling showed that 60% of Americans said Biden should drop out.
The opposition included virtually the entire Democratic party – from Pelosi down, and even former Democrat (now independent) Sen. Joe Manchin, the deep state, and Democratic donors – who began pausing funds after last month’s horrific debate between Biden and Donald Trump – and most recently led by a call from Mike Novogratz to replace Biden.
“The Democratic donor base will be re-energized if there’s a fair process to pick the next candidate,” said Novogratz, the billionaire founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings, who added that if Democrats pick a centrist replacement through a nomination process, “there are a tremendous amount of donors who will cut checks.”
According to veteran Democrat operative James Carville in a statement to Semafor last week, “This I can confirm. Donors in revolt.“
“Campaigns are expensive. Sadly, the George Clooney check-writing crowd opposed to Biden remaining in the race might win out,” Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf told Newsweek in response to a recent NYT op-ed by the actor.
“He who controls the gold might make the rules, making the Democrats no different from the Republicans,” he added.
The decision to drop out came after the Clintons were reportedly privately urging Democrat donors to keep giving to Biden as long as he remains the presumptive nominee.
One of the sources said the Clintons are choosing to be “deferential to Biden’s decision.” However, the second source, who is familiar with the Clintons’ thinking and has spoken with the couple in recent days, insisted that it is more accurate to say they are “deferential to the process.”
According to this source, the Clintons have made clear in private conversations recently that it doesn’t matter what anybody says or thinks — unless Biden decides he will drop out of the 2024 race or the delegates vote for somebody else, he is the party’s presumptive nominee. -CNN
Deep State Displeased
On Friday, NBC News reported that “More than four dozen former foreign and national security officials call on Biden to drop out of race” – so the deep state is officially negative on Biden.
“We write as former U.S. officials who have strongly supported your presidency and your initiatives to strengthen U.S. foreign and national security policy,” they wrote in a letter. “We strongly believe that now is the time to pass the mantle of leadership, and we respectfully urge you to do so.”
While Biden just endorsed Harris, Democrat delegates are under no obligation to support her. That said, if she is the nominee, who will she pick as her running mate?
NATO Commander Warns A ‘Very Big Russia Problem’ Will Remain No Matter How War Ends
The Biden administration and leading NATO officials have long touted that their muscular response to Russia, which has included firm support to Ukraine in terms of billions in arms sent and setting up training programs, has deterred Moscow from expanding the conflict. These leaders claim that escalating against Russian forces now can ensure peace for the future. But the chief of NATO’s European Command, Christopher Cavoli, has recently cautioned about the long-haul challenges ahead. He injected a little more realism into the conversation, warning in an address before the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado on Thursday that the West “can’t be under any illusions” as ultimately Russia will reconstitute its force and will be “very, very angry” at its adversaries Washington and NATO.
Cavoli described that in modern warfare a military force “either wins fast and upfront” or is stuck “for a long slog full of unpredictable twists and turns” – which is clearly the course of the Ukraine conflict. “A lot of it’s going to come down to force generation capability, which side can generate force fastest and take advantage of that while they have a window of opportunity,” he asserted. By most accounts, Russia is doing this, and has by far the advantage in terms of manpower and artillery shells.
While remaining optimistic about Kiev’s chances to change the battlefield situation, the top commander at one point said bluntly, “We can’t be under any illusions: At the end of a conflict in Ukraine — however, it concludes —we are going to have a very big Russia problem. We are going to have a situation where Russia is reconstituting its force, is located on the borders of NATO, is led by largely the same people as it is right now, is convinced that we’re the adversary, and is very, very angry.” Watch a key segment of his comments below:
While Biden and his neocon principals love to brag about how they’ve handed Russia a grand strategic defeat in Ukraine, the people who actually have to carry out their policies see it differently.
