Via The College Fix,

The University of California Berkeley will be offering a course this coming spring which focuses on popular female rapper Nicki Minaj.

Officially titled “The Galaxy of Hip-Hop Feminisms” in the UC Berkeley 2022-23 Academic Guide, instructor Peace And Love B El Henson’s (pictured below) class will delve into the “many iterations” of the topic “on stage and in everyday spaces.”

According to its description, the course will “track the constellation of dynamic voices, theories and productions of underground and mainstream Black feminine rappers who have influenced the origins of Hip-Hop and its ongoing evolution.”

It will also look at the “genealogy and nuance of key Black feminine rappers and theoreticians in the field, practice, and culture of Hip-Hop Feminisms across the Black Diaspora.”

Readings for the course come from the areas of “Hip-Hop Studies, Feminist Studies, Gender & Sexuality Studies, Porn Studies, Media & Film Studies, Performance Studies.”

Students need permission from both Henson and “the department” (presumably African American and African Diaspora Studies) to get into the course … which may account for why there currently is no one enrolled (below).

WKRC reports that Minaj noted on Twitter she would “love to stop by” upon hearing news of the class.

I’d love to stop by

— Nicki Minaj (@NICKIMINAJ) October 6, 2022

Henson’s faculty page describes her as a “black feminist urban ethnographer and critical porn studies analyst” whose research deals with “black queer femmes, state violence, pornography, and ethnography.”

Regarding that first research topic, Henson says it utilizes “black femmes’ theatrical performances from online interracial pornography to read real-life state policing encounters and vice versa [and] aims to denude the unconscious racialized pornographic BDSM […] structured into interracial relations across sites of chattel slavery, professional pornography, public schools, universities, neighborhoods, and beyond.”

Two weeks before the midterm elections, the Republican National Committee hit Alphabet Inc.’s Google with a lawsuit, claiming they can’t communicate with party members to fundraise because the big tech firm routes their emails into spam folders. 

The GOP lawsuit alleges Google “has relegated millions of RNC emails en masse to potential donors’ and supporters’ spam folders during pivotal points in election fundraising and community building.”

“The timing of Google’s most egregious filtering is particularly damning… 

“For most of each month, nearly all of the RNC’s emails make it into users’ inboxes. At approximately the same time at the end of each month, Google sends to spam nearly all of the RNC’s emails. Critically, and suspiciously, this end of the month period is historically when the RNC’s fundraising is most successful,” GOP said. 

GOP argues in the lawsuit this has been an ongoing issue for ten months. The committee is asking for unspecified monetary damages and a court order to “remedy Google’s violations of state and federal law.”

None of these allegations are surprising in the age of censorship pushed by the government and left-leaning big tech firms. Google, of course, denies culpability:

“As we have repeatedly said, we simply don’t filter emails based on political affiliation. Gmail’s spam filters reflect users’ actions. We provide training and guidelines to campaigns, we recently launched an FEC-approved pilot for political senders, and we continue to work to maximize email deliverability while minimizing unwanted spam,” spokesperson Jose Castenada said in an email to Bloomberg. 

For years, GOP officials have expressed discontent with big tech, including Google, Facebook, and Twitter, for their unrelenting censorship. 

“Google, far more than any other single entity, determines what humanity thinks is true about current events and knowledge in general. The platform continues to filter and refine its left-wing ideology through artificial intelligence, brainwashing most of the globe with a subtlety never seen in history,” Epoch’s Roger Simon wrote. 

Big tech’s censorship of conservatives could be on full display again, and just more evidence that elites are becoming desperate ahead of next month’s elections:

“Censorship is the tribute that lies pay to truth. If truth were not so powerful, no censorship would be necessary,” Epoch’s Jeffrey Tucker recently opined. 

Even with the GOP whining about big tech censorship, pre-midterm polls still show momentum is clearly in Republicans’ favor. 

After being caught on up in earlier controversy and pushback over his Russia-Ukraine peace proposal, resulting in a back-and-forth with the Pentagon over the status of public funding for SpaceX’s satellite internet service Starlink, Elon Musk on Sunday made a new pledge seeking to reassure Ukraine.

“Before [the Department of Defense] even came back with an answer, I told @FedorovMykhailo that SpaceX would not turn off Starlink even if DoD refused to provide funding,” Musk stated in a Sunday evening tweet, referring to Ukraine’s vice prime minister and minister of digital transformation Mykhailo Fedorov.

The new pledge to not “turn off” the Starlink services used by Ukrainian troops means that even if the US Department of Defense ultimately refuses to share the bill, Musk will personally ensure it stays on.

The Register reported of the controversy that “The Starlink-Ukraine honeymoon period appears to be at an end: SpaceX reportedly wants the US to begin picking up the tab for more of its war-zone services.” Musk has said SpaceX already forked over $80 million in costs to keep the internet systems operating, which the Ukrainian government has long acknowledged as crucial to its military operations and communications.

This public promise comes also as some hawkish pundits have begun to float the idea of nationalizing the Starlink systems. This is precisely what Former George W. Bush speechwriter and columnist for The Atlantic David Frum argued last week: 

Frum argued on Monday that it is becoming too “unwise” to suspect that Musk will continue to provide Starlink satellite equipment to help Ukrainian citizens access the internet during Russia’s invasion of the country. To remedy this, he suggested the U.S. government should seize and nationalize the company if Musk ever plans to pull his satellites. 

Frum had tweeted “It was always unreasonable, and is becoming unwise, to expect @elonmusk to provide Internet to Ukraine for free forever. Western allies should pay. And US should have a plan ready to nationalize Starlink fast if Musk cuts off Ukraine’s connection to advance his political agenda.”

Socialism comes at you fast.

“Nationalize Starlink.”

From a former conservative. https://t.co/6lbkXhs3LJ

— Tom Giovanetti (@tgiovanetti) October 18, 2022

In September, SpaceX’s director of government sales spelled out in a letter to the Pentagon that “We are not in a position to further donate terminals to Ukraine, or fund the existing terminals for an indefinite period of time.”

It’s expected that by year’s end SpaceX will have eaten through $100 million for the donated 25,000 Starlink terminals so that Ukraine can continue using the services. Ukraine’s government has lately “played nice”, expressing its gratitude – for example in this Sunday exchange with Musk:

“Before all the talks about funding, you confirmed to me that in any case, you will ensure the work of Starlink in Ukraine. This was critically important for Ukraine,” Mykhailo wrote.

Musk replied: “You’re most welcome.”

Mykhailo had previously thanked SpaceX while declaring that “Ukraine will stay connected no matter what.”

Interestingly as part of the same thread, on Monday Musk indicated he would be donating more Starlink terminals for use in Iran amid ongoing anti-government protests and efforts by authorities to restrict internet and social media access…

Yes

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 24, 2022

Musk has of late come under greater media and even possible government scrutiny for unfounded allegations that he’s been in direct contact with the Kremlin, a charge he’s rejected as patently false. This merely because he has sought ways that the warring sides in Ukraine might compromise toward ceasefire and negotiated settlement, as opposed to escalation to the point of nuclear armed powers – namely the US and Russia – clashing directly.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

VUCA – Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity

Given what we are experiencing geopolitically and in the markets, we are living through VUCA, or VUCA², or even VUCA to the n^th degree!

There is no shortage of any of these factors in our daily lives.

Due to our team being scattered across the country today, this T-Report will be mercifully short and we will follow up with a detailed report at the start of the week (especially on the markets and inflation front). But in the meantime, let’s point out a couple of elements that are key for the coming week:

• China. To some degree, we expected (and received) some clarity at the end of the Party Congress, but watching former President Hu Jintao being awkwardly removed from his seat is disturbing at best. I fully expect Xi to continue to Recentralize China (August 2021) and for China to continue to Separate from the West (February 2022). These reports have aged well and China currently remains un-investible from my perspective.

• Markets started to Climb the Wall of Worry. Equities surged, especially into the close on Friday. The 2-year yield finished down on the week, though not before we had what was potentially a crescendo of selling. The 10-year closed the week near Thursday’s high yields, but was well off the highest yields it saw earlier that day. The Japanese Yen had a stunning 3.75% reversal from 152 to as strong as 146.2. FX is an increasingly important subject in its own right, which we will address in more detail in the coming days. It may be a stretch to say that FX is entering the realm of geopolitics, but it may not be. Much of the recent U.S. Treasury and investment grade bond market weakness may be traced to the rapidly rising costs of hedging FX exposure.

• The Fed. As the Fed prepared to enter into the quiet period, markets rallied as the last messages sent out directly (and via their favorite media outlets) hinted that the December and February hikes are far from being determined. The fact that the Fed meetings have taken on the aura of a papal conclave is disturbing. However, as we now get to digest data without the Fed’s constant hawkishness, markets may see how quickly many leading indicators are rolling over and finally agree with my view that the Fed needs to pause because they have already set in motion a chain reaction that is driving us towards a deeper and longer recession than we want.

• Will the Treasury announce purchases of off-the-run bonds? That would help address several issues including a lack of liquidity, the fact that the Fed’s balance sheet is now a cost center rather than a profit center, and the absorption of foreign selling of old bonds.

• Inflation and the economy. If you don’t believe that an economy like ours can experience stagflation for an extended period of time (QT vs Stagflation), then you expect that economic weakness will coincide with lower prices. The list of leading indicators that are rolling over is extensive and getting longer by the day. I expect to be able to prove that when inflation is calculated in a way that we experience it, we will see that the Fed has done enough and the prudent choice is to watch and wait (rather than continue on their stated path).

• Russia and OPEC+. We talked about the Nuclear Threat, which was a big topic of conversation at the summit (though still viewed as highly unlikely). Draining our strategic oil reserves is a problem and our relationship with OPEC+ (as well as providers of rare earths and critical minerals across the globe) needs to improve.

Bottom Line

Despite all the risks (or maybe because of them), I expect the “everything rally” to continue and even extend into this week. I’m bullish on equities and fixed income products. I’m nervous about commodities, but the strength of the rally could carry them higher as well.

This is definitely trying to thread the needle by capturing the transition of “the Fed is nearly done” to what I think will become a risk-off moment because “the Fed went too far”. So, I’m nervous and there is no shortage of global risk that could crush this nascent rally right from the get-go, but I’m still bullish at the moment.

Following Russia’s initial major weekend accusation that Ukraine is plotting a ‘dirty bomb’ false flag incident, the Kremlin has announced it has “readied all forces and capabilities to fulfill tasks in conditions of radioactive contamination.”

This is according to a briefing given Monday by the head of Russia’s nuclear, chemical, and biological forces. Western allies of Ukraine have responded by slamming the “false allegations” over the dirty bomb narrative, instead alleging Russia will itself stage a mass detonation and use it as a pretext for escalation of its invasion.

It remains that up till this point, with the conflict reaching the eight month mark, President Putin has yet to issue a formal war declaration. Kiev has claimed Russia is readying a narrative that would justify full invasion of its forces and complete national mobilization.

Ukraine on Monday is requesting that the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, urgently dispatch a team to Kiev in order to conduct inspections to counter Russia’s claims of a Ukrainian “provocation” in the works.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba issued a public statement referencing a phone call with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi: “I officially invited IAEA to urgently send experts to peaceful facilities in Ukraine, which Russia deceitfully claims to be developing a dirty bomb. He agreed. Unlike Russia, Ukraine has always been and remains transparent. We have nothing to hide,” Kuleba said.

Russia very specifically alleged that its intelligence shows Britain is helping the Ukrainians with the ‘dirty bomb’ plot, but Western officials say they didn’t present evidence.

The head of Russia’s nuclear, chemical, and biological forces just gave a briefing about Moscow’s claims Ukraine is developing a “dirty bomb.” Russia has “readied all forces and capabilities to fulfill tasks in conditions of radioactive contamination.”https://t.co/c02P92ZLpM pic.twitter.com/f0qgdY6KWY

— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 24, 2022

On Monday Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to critics as follows: 

“The fact that they do not trust the information which was provided by the Russian side does not mean that the threat of the use of such a dirty bomb ceases to exist. The threat is present. This information was brought to the attention of the [Russian] defense minister’s interlocutors. It’s up to them whether they want to believe it or not,” Peskov told journalists in a briefing Monday.

Given some of the Russian allegations were specific in terms of citing locations, the IAEA team which is now expected to deploy to Ukraine is likely to inspect some of the said sites: 

The Russian state news agency RIA Novosti cited “reliable sources” when claiming that the “dirty bomb” had been commissioned by Ukraine to its Eastern Mining and Processing Plant in Zhovti Vody, Dnipropetrovsk Region, as well as the Institute for Nuclear Research in Kyiv.

The US, France, and the UK flatly rejected and condemned the Russian claims in a Sunday joint statement. They all rejected “Russia’s transparently false allegations” following a series of phone calls at the request of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. He had additionally told France’s Macron that the Ukraine situation is leading toward “uncontrolled escalation”.

“Sleepy” Joe Biden is at it again.

During an interview with MSNBC‘s Jonathan Capehart, the President was asked if his wife, First Lady Jill Biden, supports him running for reelection in 2024 – to which Biden’s brain appeared to reboot with updates. As it searched for a gear, Capeheart asks: “Mr. President?”

To which Biden ultimately replied: “Dr Biden thinks that uh, my wife thinks that uh, that I uh, that, that we’re, that we’re doing something very important and that I shouldn’t walk away from it.”

The “president” fell asleep on camera in the middle of a televised interview pic.twitter.com/ghKioeYx9o

— Monica Crowley (@MonicaCrowley) October 22, 2022

It wasn’t the first time during the interview that the 79-year-old groped for words;

At one point, Biden grabbed Capehart and got right in his face while discussing how ancient he is. Remember, Democrats and their media lapdogs wanted to impeach Donald Trump for a lack of mental acuity.

This is so creepy. pic.twitter.com/qug3GepxcD

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) October 23, 2022

60 seconds to prove Joe Biden has dementia pic.twitter.com/RQF3IHTeGC

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 24, 2022

Meanwhile, in another pre-midterm interview…

Joe Biden comes out as pro child mutilation days before the 2022 midterms.

This is all you need to know.
pic.twitter.com/ndDdAo7Kzz

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 24, 2022

Americans: We can’t afford food

The White House: pic.twitter.com/oZH6sMEn3B

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 23, 2022

And here’s Biden declaring that Congress voted on his student loan debt bailout, saying “It’s passed. I got it passed by a vote or two.”

The bailout was in fact done via executive order (and is currently paused while it’s tied up in litigation).

Biden claims his executive order on student loans is a bill that passed Congress by one or two votes and that he recently signed into law
pic.twitter.com/LidAkKMJ3k

— Eddie Zipperer (@EddieZipperer) October 24, 2022

Really bizarre. Biden says ‘I just signed a law’ and ‘It’s passed. I got it passed by a vote or two.’ Referring, of course, to his executive order, never passed by Congress. BTW, Biden had notes in hand. Long version here; begins at 11:12. https://t.co/LwFUngqNnD https://t.co/H40jorGC0m

— Byron York (@ByronYork) October 24, 2022

Having willfully violated his oath of office by issuing an executive order he knows is flatly illegal—and having then tried to dodge review by the courts by amending it on the fly —Biden is now lying about it having gone through Congress. https://t.co/XNRSCyIdZd

— Charles C. W. Cooke (@charlescwcooke) October 24, 2022

Also interesting, Biden thinks thanks to some legislation of his, there can be ‘no more than eights bullets in a round, okay?’

BIDEN: “My legislation says there can be no more than eight bullets in a round, okay?” 🤔 pic.twitter.com/LxmTk9EjyC

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 24, 2022

Time for another reboot?

Just imagine if Donald Trump (or to be honest any Republican politician) behaved like this around young children.pic.twitter.com/KM7O3UwTT9

— Ben Kew 🐶 (@ben_kew) October 23, 2022

Shares of Tesla are down about 7% in the pre-market session after the company cut the price of some of its cars in China, drumming up concerns about demand just days after Musk said the company would continue robust production regardless of whether or not the global economy slipped into recession. 

TSLA just broke below $200 for the first time since June 2021…

EV names like Lucid, Rivian, Fisker, and Workhorse will all be on watch heading into the cash session. 

Tesla slashed the price of its Model 3 and Model Y to 265,900 Chinese yuan ($36,615) from 279,900 yuan and to 288,900 yuan versus the previous price of 316,900 yuan, CNBC reported Monday morning. 

“China is experiencing a recession of sorts,” CEO Musk had said last week. The cuts offset price hikes that took place earlier in the year, which came as a result of higher input costs. 

Recall, CEO Elon Musk said on his company’s conference call last week that the company is pushing forward with production despite the current macroeconomic climate. 

Musk said: “To be frank, we’re very pedal to the metal come rain or shine. We are not reducing our production in any meaningful way, recession or not recession.”

He continued: “The public at large realizes that world’s moving towards electric vehicles, and it’s foolish to buy a new gasoline car at this point because the residual value of that gasoline car is going to be very low. So, we’re in a very good spot.”

“I wouldn’t say it’s recession-proof but it’s recession-resilient, because basically the people of Earth have made the decision in large part to move away from gasoline cars,” he added.

Tesla had sold 83,135 China-made vehicles in September, setting a record. The prior sales record was set in June when the company sold 78,906 China-made vehicles. The new record comes after Tesla shut down Shanghai for a portion of the summer in order to upgrade the facilities. 

We all know that there is no $TSLA demand issue in China or anywhere for that matter. My belief is that it’s a smoke screen for shares going to be dumped and a cover up for the pressure that was going to be on the stock today. Could be wrong but Elon is master illusionist.

— squawksquare (@squawksquare) October 24, 2022

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The period between Labor Day and Christmas is typically peak shipping season. Don’t expect much of a peak this year…

No Backlog at California Ports 

The Wall Street Journal reports Southern California’s Notorious Container Ship Backup Ends

Key Stats 

• The queue of ships waiting to unload at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach fell from a peak of 109 ships in January to four vessels this week.

• Descartes Datamyne, a data analysis group owned by supply-chain software company Descartes Systems Group Inc., says container imports to the U.S. in September declined by 11% from a year earlier and by 12.4% from August.

• Shipping lines have canceled between 26% to 31% of their sailings across the Pacific over the coming weeks, according to Sea-Intelligence

• In September of 2021 the average cost for shipping a container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast exceeded $20,000. Last week, the average cost to ship a container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast had declined 84% from a year earlier to $2,720.

Extraordinary Progress 

The real reason that supply chain constraints are easing is because far fewer goods are moving through the supply chain. The last time that the port of LA handled so few loaded import containers in September was during the Great Financial Crisis. https://t.co/faRSdXRz53 pic.twitter.com/aN0JZv1mud

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 22, 2022

2022 September vs September Prior Years 

• 2022 vs 2021: -26.6%

• 2022 vs 2020: -27.2%

• 2022 vs 2019: -14.6%

• 2022 vs 2018: -17.1%

• 2022 vs 2017: -11.6%

The last positive comparison vs other years was September of 2009 coming out of the great recession. 

Truck Shipping Rates Barely Positive

Today’s daily national truckload index rate was $1.78, just $.03 above the breakeven rate for some of the truckload carriers in the market. Note: this is peak season. https://t.co/n7DPRFzKlh pic.twitter.com/XHr8Tliqr1

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 22, 2022

Great Purge Coming Up

We are on the cusp of a Great Purge in trucking capacity, as carriers struggle to keep up with challenging conditions. The latest carrier to shutter. https://t.co/des372S3Lj

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 21, 2022

Shipping Rates

Mega ships work well when you have a lot of volume concentrated at single origin points, but less useful when trade is distributed around the world and at much smaller ports. Unfortunately for the container carriers, they will have these massive ships they won’t fill. 2/

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 20, 2022

The same thing happened in the airline industry. The large mega airliners (A380) were once viewed as the saving grace for the airlines, but were replaced by mid-sized planes that were more fuel efficient, could land in many more locations, and offer more direct service. End.

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 20, 2022

Aerial Reconnaissance

Doing aerial recon over the port of Newark to figure out where all the containers went after they fell off a cliff w/ @rrpre pic.twitter.com/JyWXnmhZXI

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 21, 2022

Great Pic!

What About Railroads?

This is why the LTLs and railroads are starting to feel the pain https://t.co/zwGHFi2JDE

— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 21, 2022

Keep Those Rate Hikes Coming!

Keep the rate hikes coming? pic.twitter.com/9ALQ7yQSYY

— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP) October 21, 2022

Question of the Day

Q: Are we in recession or just headed for one?
A: The question is moot. 

Not only does Fed policy operates with a lag, the Fed appears committed to holding rates at a high level for some time. Sooner or later does not matter much. 

GDPNow Creator Pat Higgins On the October Surge in the GDP Forecast

GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed, chart by Mish

I had bookmarked a recession starting in May, but if GDPNow is close to accurate, the US will have skirted a recession through Q3.

For discussion, please see GDPNow Creator Pat Higgins On the October Surge in the GDP Forecast.

Spotlight on Current Real Final Sales (RFS) Estimate – October 14

• Base GDP Estimate: 2.8 Percent (Above Chart)

• RFS Total: 2.9 Percent (Above Chart)

• RFS Domestic: +0.6 Percent (Report Details)

• RFS Private Domestic: +0.2 Percent (Report Details)

Collapse in Imports 

It’s a collapse in imports thus improved balance of trade that caused a surge in the GDPNow model.

The collapse in imports certainly matches the data and analysis of Craig Fuller.

How much the model overreacted or underreacted to that improved balance of trade remains to be seen. 

Expect a Long Period of Weak Growth, Whether or Not It’s Labeled Recession

I keep returning to my August 19, 2022 post Expect a Long Period of Weak Growth, Whether or Not It’s Labeled Recession

Lost in the debate over whether recession has started, is the observation that it doesn’t matter much either way.

A Big Housing Bust is the Key to Understanding This Recession

Housing leads recessions and recoveries and housing rates to be weak for a long time.

Add it all up and you have the opposite of the Covid-recession, a long period of economic weakness with minimal rise in unemployment.

It does not matter whether you label this a recession or not. Besides, the NBER might not even announce the recession until it’s over. That happened once already.

The Fed is going to overshoot. Fears of stirring up inflation again will keep them from aggressively reacting.  

Many millions of the 22 million boomers age 60+ but still working will retire. This will prevent a huge jump in the unemployment rate that most expect. 

*  *  *

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In his preview of the week’s economic calendar, DB’s Jim Reid writes that maybe the most interesting data this week comes on Friday with the Q3 employment cost index (exp. at +1.2% vs. +1.3% last month) and the September personal income (+0.4% vs. +0.3%) and consumption (+0.4% vs. +0.4%) report, including the core PCE deflator (+0.5% vs. +0.56%). Q3 GDP will also be closed watched, with consensus expecting a bounce from -0.6% to 2.3%. With respect to core PCE, economists expect the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to rise by 30bps to 5.2%. DB economists highlight that as the median forecast for 2022 core PCE inflation in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections from the September 21st meeting was 4.5%, it’s going to be tough to signal a downshift in December.

Elsewhere this week the main highlights are the ECB (Thursday) and the BoJ (Friday) decisions and a huge round of earnings with big Tech the highlight. We also have a new UK Prime Minister as of this moment, after ex-Chancellor Sunak was effectively declared PM tonight. We’ll also see US Q3 GDP (Thursday) and flash PMIs in the US and Europe (today) and October CPIs and GDP for many European countries (Friday). There are other data which are in the day by day guide at the end as usual for a Monday but let’s take a brief look at the highlights outside the already discussed PCE. The ECB’s decision on Thursday will be a big event with our European economists expecting another +75bps hike (72.3bp priced in), followed by +75bps in December (c.62bps priced in), +50bps in February (c.38bps priced), and +25bps in March, reaching a terminal rate of 3%. The press conference as ever will be a focal point and there’ll be lots of attention on technical things surrounding TLTROs and excess reserves. For more on the options here see our fixed income strategists blog from Friday here.

Staying with central banks, over in Japan, the BoJ announces its decision on Friday amidst continued downward pressure on the yen, which hit a 32-year low against the dollar of 151.95 on Friday before surging again to end the week at 147.65 – c.3.5% swing while the Japanese slept after Nikkei reported fresh intervention from the Japanese authorities. The Yen has again seen a wild session in Asia. After falling again to 149.67 it surged to 145.65 and now trades at 148.88 as we go to press with no clarity on if and what intervention has been done.

For US Q3 GDP this week, DB’s US economists expect real growth to rebound to +3.0% from Q2’s -0.6%. Q3 GDP figures will also be out for European countries on Friday, including for Germany and France with the former likely to be slightly negative and the latter slightly positive. Overall it’s likely to be the start of growth grinding towards or below zero and then staying negative for a few quarters. On European CPI on Friday remember September readings saw Germany’s CPI reaching 10% for the first time since 1950.

Finally, earnings will come thick and fast this week, featuring the big tech, oil majors and key automakers and staples. In tech alone we have Microsoft, Alphabet (tomorrow), Meta (Wednesday) and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). A huge slug (20% by market cap) of the S&P 500 in 48 hours. One thing to not: The GAMMA stocks (Google, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) have lost $3 trillion in market cap this year and yet they are still larger than the utilities, energy and consumer sectors combined. Other notable tech firms reporting results will include Intel, Twitter, SAP and Samsung. The other main reporters are in the day by day week ahead at the end.

Day-by-day calendar of events

Monday October 24

• Data: US October PMIs, September Chicago Fed national activity index, Japan, UK, Germany, France and the Eurozone October PMIs

Tuesday October 25

• Data: US October Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, August FHFA house price index, Japan September nationwide department store sales, Germany October Ifo survey
• Central banks: Eurozone bank lending survey, Fed’s Waller speaks, BoE’s Pill speaks
• Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, HSBC, SAP, General Electric, 3M, UBS, General Motors, ADM, Valero Energy, Chipotle, Biogen, Halliburton, Spotify, Norsk Hydro

Wednesday October 26

• Data: US September wholesale inventories, retail inventories, new home sales, advance goods trade balance, Japan September PPI services, France October consumer confidence, Eurozone September M3
• Central banks: BoC decision
• Earnings: Meta, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, Canadian Pacific, Iberdrola, Boston Scientific, Mercedes-Benz, Heineken, SK Hynix, Ford, Kraft Heinz, Santander, BASF, Twitter, Barclays, Telenor, Puma

Thursday October 27

• Data: US Q3 GDP, September durable goods orders, October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, China September industrial profits, Germany November GfK consumer confidence, Italy October consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, August industrial sales
• Central banks: ECB decision, BoE’s Woods speaks, ECB’s Villeroy speaks
• Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Samsung, Merck, Shell, McDonald’s, T-Mobile, Linde, TotalEnergies, Comcast, Honeywell, Intel, S&P Global, Caterpillar, AB InBev, American Tower, Gilead Sciences, EDF, Neste, STMicroelectronics, Shopify, PG&E, Repsol, EDP, Pinterest, First Solar, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Lufthansa, Hertz, Ubisoft, Spirit Airlines

Friday October 28

• Data: US Q3 employment cost index, September personal income, personal spending, PCE deflator, pending home sales, Japan September jobless rate, Germany, France, Q3 GDP, October CPI, Italy October CPI, France September consumer spending, PPI, Italy September PPI, hourly wages, Eurozone October economic and industrial confidence, Canada August GDP
• Central banks: BoJ decision, ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, Equinor, Sanofi, Porsche, Airbus, Volkswagen, Colgate-Palmolive, Eni SpA, BBVA, LyondellBasell

* *  *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the Q3 GDP advance release on Thursday, and the employment cost index, core PCE, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment reports on Friday. There are no scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials on monetary policy this week, reflecting the FOMC blackout period.

Monday, October 24

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, October preliminary (consensus 51.0, last 52.0): S&P Global US services PMI, October preliminary (consensus 49.5, last 49.3)

Tuesday, October 25

• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, August (consensus -0.6%, last -0.6%)
• 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, August (GS -0.7%, consensus -0.70%, last -0.44%): We estimate that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index declined 0.7% in August, following a 0.44% decline in July.
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, October (GS 106.0, consensus 105.3, last 108.0): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index decreased to 106.0 in October.
• 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus -5, last 0)
• 01:55 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Governor Christopher Waller will discuss FedNow at an event hosted by Money20/20. A moderated Q&A is expected; however, he is not expected to comment on monetary policy, reflecting the FOMC blackout period.

Wednesday, October 26

• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, September (GS -$87.0bn, consensus -$87.5bn, last -$87.3bn): We estimate that the goods trade deficit narrowed by $0.3bn to $87.0bn in September compared to the final August report, reflecting a larger drop in imports than in exports.
• 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, September preliminary (consensus +1.0%, last +1.3%)
• 10:00 AM New home sales, September (GS -17.0%, consensus -15.3%, last +28.8%): We estimate that new home sales declined 17.0% in September, following a 28.8% increase in August.

Thursday, October 27

• 08:30 AM GDP, Q3 advance (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.3%, last -0.6%): Personal consumption, Q3 advance (GS +1.4%, consensus +0.9%, last +2.0%): We estimate that GDP growth rose +2.4% annualized in the advance reading for Q3, following the 0.6% annualized decline in Q2. Our forecast reflects a slowdown in consumption growth (to +1.4% qoq ar) and large declines in structures investment (residential -23%, nonresidential -6%). We also expect a negative contribution to GDP growth from inventories (-0.7pp) but estimate a large boost from normalization in net exports (+3.1pp contribution). We estimate domestic final sales rose just 0.3% annualized. We will finalize our forecast after Wednesday’s foreign trade and inventory data.
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, September preliminary (GS +1.2%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%); Core capital goods orders, September preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.3%, last +1.4%); Core capital goods shipments, September preliminary (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%): We estimate that durable goods orders rebounded 1.2% in the preliminary September report, reflecting strength in commercial aircraft orders but a possible pullback in defense orders. We expect softness elsewhere in the report, including a slowdown in growth for shipments of core capital goods (+0.2%) and unchanged core capital goods orders, reflecting weaker foreign demand and some softening in domestic industrial data.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 22 (GS 215k, consensus 220k, last 214k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 15 (consensus 1,383k, last 1,385k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged up to 215k in the week ended October 22.
• 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus -2, last +1)

Friday, October 28

• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q3 (GS +1.2%, consensus +1.2%, prior +1.3%): We estimate that the employment cost index (ECI) rose 1.2% in Q3 (qoq sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by one tenth to 5.0%. Our forecast reflects sequential slowing in the private wages ex-incentives category, based on slowing growth in the Atlanta Fed wage tracker and in production and nonsupervisory average hourly earnings. However, we expect another strong reading for the benefits category as firms expand health insurance and supplemental pay programs in order to attract and retain talent. We see two-sided risk from incentive-paid industries, as fewer home sales commissions (and production bonuses more generally) could be offset by rebounding commissions on home equity loans and HELOCs.
• 08:30 AM Personal income, September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%): Personal spending, September (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); PCE price index, September (GS +0.26%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.29%); PCE price index (yoy), September (GS +6.19%, consensus +6.3%, last +6.25%); Core PCE price index, September (GS +0.36%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.56%); Core PCE price index (yoy), September (GS +5.07%, consensus +5.2%, last +4.91%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI, and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose by 0.36% month-over-month in September, corresponding to a 5.07% increase from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.26% in September, corresponding to a 6.19% increase from a year earlier. We expect that personal income increased by 0.4% and personal spending increased by 0.6% in September.
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, September (GS -7.5%, consensus -5.0%, last -2.0%): We estimate pending home sales declined 7.5% in September, following a 2.0% decline in August.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October final (GS 59.3, consensus 59.6, last 59.8); University of Michigan 5–10-year inflation expectations, October final (GS 2.9%, consensus 2.9%, last 2.9%): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased by 0.5pt to 59.3 in the final October reading.

Source: DB, BofA, Goldman

Shares in Chinese companies crashed Monday morning as traders were spooked by the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping. After a weeklong Party Congress, Xi was confirmed for a third presidential term on Saturday.

Traders fear more stringent regulations on technology companies pushing these stocks very deep into the red. The Hang Seng Index plunged to a 13-year low, dropping more than 1,000 points before closing around 15,180. The index saw a 6.4% drop, the most significant one-day drop since 2008. 

The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped as much as 9%. The index is down more than 74% since peaking in 1Q21.

The offshore yen resumed its decline, tumbling by 1.3% – the biggest one-day slide since August 2019, to a record of 7.31. 

China tech companies such as Alibaba and Tencent plummeted more than 11% in Asia. Internet search company Baidu closed down 12% while Meituan plunged 14%. BABA shares listed in the US are down more than 11%, trading at 2016 lows. 

Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slumped 12%. 

Downward press in Chinese stocks comes at the end of the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, which has solidified Xi’s third term, surpassing the historical precedent of a two-term limit and is now the longest leader since Mao Zedong. This has undoubtedly alarmed investors with more political uncertainty and regulatory headwinds. 

“While Chinese politics have long been opaque, this sharp consolidation of power is adding to investor unease. Equity valuations, already near a 10-year trough, will likely face more pressure if international investors demand a higher risk premium,” Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management, said. 

Xi’s consolidation of power also suggests an end to zero-Covid restrictions seemed less likely, while the latest economic data shows a weak recovery. 

“Now that the new Politburo standing committee is packed with Xi’s own picks and those in rival factions … were all out, it becomes clear that no other political elite dares to challenge his policy mistakes or even deviate however slightly from his preferred policy agenda, which of course over the past few years has focused on favoring the state sector at the expense of the private one,” Xin Sun, senior lecturer in Chinese and East Asian business, at King’s College London, told CNBC via email. 

Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said after the leadership transition is finalized, traders will “focus on the economy and mending the property sector.” He said the property market is a fragile sector of the economy, adding, “still, these may take time. We may not see much change to Covid policies in the near term.” 

The selloff in Chinese stocks is appealing to some investors though they said an inflection point of when to buy is still unknown. This was explained by Xiadong Bao, fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in Paris: 

“A lot of bad news have been baked in and the market correction is clearly overshooting, but we’re still looking for an inflection point which is unclear for now.” 

Besides leadership fears and a souring economic outlook, traders avoid Chinese stocks. One reason is because of the Biden administration’s economic war on Beijing. Then the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening made emerging market equities unappealing. 

“Foreigners are selling out of tech now,” said Hao Hong, partner and chief economist at Grow Investment Group. “Right now, except the historical precedents and cheap valuation, there is nothing working for Chinese tech.”

So with China stocks set for the most significant drop since the global financial crisis — traders and asset managers continue to shun these stocks as there are too many overhangs and not enough positive upside catalysts in the near term.