For much of the past year, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick has had a nice, round number in mind for his 2024 year-end price target: after (somewhat accurately) predicting in late 2022 that Bitcoin could tumble as low as $5000 in the aftermath of the FTX collapse, Kendrick flipped in mid-2023 at which point – and ever since – he has argued that due to the “seismic changes in the institutional approach to Bitcoin in the United States”, the cryptocurrency would hit all time highs in 2024 (it did) and rise as high as $100,000 (it has yet to do that).

Then, at the start of 2024 and after the SEC approved bitcoin ETFs, Kendrick doubled down on the nice round numbers, and said that based on his ETF inflow assumptions, while he still thinks that an end-2024 Bitcoin price target of $100,000 is realistic, looking further out, the Standard Chartered strategist predicted that an end-2025 level closer to $200,000 is possible. This assumes that between 437,000 and 1.32 million new bitcoins will be held in spot US ETFs by end-2024. In USD terms, this should be roughly USD 50-100Bn.

Then, at the start of May, once it became increasingly realistic that not only did Trump have a fighting chance of defeating Biden but that Gary Gensler’s days are likely numbered – with the SEC’s relentless pushback against Ethereum ETFs unexpectedly collapsing – Kendrick made a follow up observation in which he once again returned to his nice, round number prediction, forecasting that bitcoin will surge above $100,000 “when we get closer to Trump election victory we can rally hard from say Sept. to year-end.”

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick predicts that bitcoin will surge above $100,000 once Trump fires @GaryGensler: “when we get closer to Trump election victory we can rally hard from say Sept. to year-end”

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 6, 2024

So here we are, two months later and not only is bitcoin not anywhere closer to the nice, round number but it has in fact dropped somewhat notably from where it traded in late May.

What gives?

As Kendrick explains in his latest note published this morning, “frustrated BTC bulls have come up with a number of theories as to why we are stuck in a range. The most popular (the one I have heard the most which also makes sense) is that longer term holders continue to sell to nearer term buyers. Hence rallies are sold into and dips are bought.”

The question then is what macro driver will be enough to make this stop? Kendrick thinks there will be a combination of Treasury yield movement which coalesces with a constructive US political backdrop, both of which he believes “will happen soon.”

Starting with the first, on Treasury yields the strategist previously identified 3 drivers that should be constructive BTC in the attached note:

• A steeper nominal 2Y/10Y curve
• A greater increase in breakevens than real yields
• An increase in term premium

And while far from perfect, Kendrick believes that there is a “reasonable correlation” between each of these and BTC prices, shown here as 3 month changes. Interestingly, in recent weeks the UST movements have started to improve for BTC direction (or have at least started to go sideways) whereas BTC prices have been weak, which suggests that there is something else holding back the prices.

But if the increasingly favorable moves in rates are not having an impact on bitcoin prices, then what is it: “why have BTC prices been weaker than the UST drivers would suggest?”

Here, Kendrick thinks it has to do with the current state of the US Presidential election.

Recall the previously discussed positive relationship between Trump’s electoral odds (shown here as the % probability of victory as reflected in betting markets) and BTC prices. The logic here is that both regulation and mining would be looked at more favorably under Trump:

Looking at the above chart, it is safe to say that BTC prices got ahead of Trump probabilities on ETF inflows, but BTC prices are now lagging. Why the lag?

Kendrick believes that this time BTC prices are lagging Trump probabilities because the probability of Biden stepping down/being replaced has been increasing. Specifically, the combined odds of Trump and Biden have now fallen to as low as 90% this week, the lowest level since March. That is, betting markets are saying there is a 10% chance someone other that Trump or Biden will win the Whitehouse.

Indeed, today’s story sources by the CIA’s favorite mouthpiece that Democrats are now in disarray and that Hunter Biden is effectively in charge of the country…

Hunter Biden has joined meetings with President Biden and his top aides this week at the White House, four people familiar with the matter tell my colleagues, who are told the reaction from some senior White House staff has been,  “What the hell is happening?”

— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) July 2, 2024

… has sent Kamala Harris’ odds of becoming the Democrat nominee soaring.

this is pretty terrifying pic.twitter.com/wy2k464YE6

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 2, 2024

In a probability sense, this means the market is now saying Trump is most likely to win (BTC positive), followed by Biden (BTC negative) but with a reasonable non-zero chance Biden is replaced and someone else – Michelle Obama, Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom – wins (BTC negative). From a bell-curve perspective this is the equivalent of a fat left tail event.

From here Kendrick sees 2 possible outcomes:

1. Biden stays in the race and, given market pricing, will be expected to lose to Trump (BTC positive)
2. Biden exits the race and the newcomer will be perceived to have more chance to beat Trump than Biden had (BTC negative)

The good news is that we won’t have long to wait to find out the answer: the key date is 4 August, that’s when Ohio law requires Presidential candidates to be registered. So, if Biden is still the Democratic nominee on 4 August he will still be so in the first week of November.

Going forward what the Standard Chartered analysts expects to see is the following:

1. Most likely (90%) – in late July we conclude that Biden will run, Trump probabilities increase further, the fat left tail is removed. BTC moves higher, vol and skew moves higher. A fresh all-time in August is likely, then $100k by US election day
2. Least likely (10%) – in late July Biden steps aside, BTC prices dip to $50-55k. If the new Democratic candidate is very credible (Michelle Obama) BTC prices stay soft. If not, it is a fantastic buying opportunity. BTC prices bounce back to $100k by US election day

Watch this space for early moves in BTC vol and skew.

More in the full note from Kendrick available to pro subscribers.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Army and Navy have recently completed a flight test of a hypersonic missile as the United States seeks to keep pace with its geopolitical rivals—China and Russia—in developing hypersonic capabilities.

The military performed the flight test from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii, to gather data on the overall performance of the long-range hypersonic weapon (LRHW), the Pentagon said on June 28.

The LRHW is equipped with the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) All-Up-Round missile—which consists of a two-stage solid rocket motor booster and a hypersonic glide body—and the Army’s canister.

CPS is a hypersonic missile development and test program that “provides longer range, shorter flight times, and high survivability against enemy defenses,” according to Lockheed Martin.

Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch Jr., director of the U.S. Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, said that the missile development was intended to help the U.S. military “maintain superiority over any potential adversaries.”

The Pentagon did not elaborate on the data obtained from the flight test or provide additional details about the hypersonic missile.

The test comes about a month after the U.S. Army awarded Lockheed Martin a $756 million contract to supply the additional equipment and support for the nation’s ground-based hypersonic weapon system, the LRHW.

Under the contract, the aerospace and defense company will provide the U.S. Army with LRHW battery equipment, systems, and software engineering support, as well as logistics solutions.

Dark Eagle

A recent report by the Congressional Research Service stated that the U.S. Army’s LRHW, dubbed the Dark Eagle, can travel at more than 3,800 miles per hour and is capable of reaching “the top of the Earth’s atmosphere.”

The weapon system can maintain a position “just beyond the range of air and missile defense systems” until it is ready to strike, according to the report.

It provides the U.S. Army with a weapon system for strategic attacks to counter anti-access/area denial capabilities—weapons used to keep an enemy out of a certain area— suppress adversary long-range fire, and engage other important targets.

Lockheed Martin delivered the first LRHW battery to the U.S. military in 2021. The U.S. Army has been collaborating with the U.S. Navy to develop the weapon system, according to the report.

The United States has been testing its hypersonic missile capabilities amid growing concern that Russia and China have been more successful in developing such weapons.

Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, a security-focused think tank, said last year that the United States trails China in the development of hypersonic weapons.

“China has effectively taken the lead in the hypersonic weapons race due to the breadth and depth of its technology investments,” Mr. Fisher said.

“We are only seeing the beginning of their weapons developments in this field.”

The Pentagon, in its annual report to Congress last year, warned that China already “has the world’s leading hypersonic arsenal,” which includes the DF-17 medium-range ballistic missiles that can be armed with hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). An HGV, fitted to a ballistic missile, enables it to maneuver and glide at hypersonic speeds and alter trajectories after launch.

According to the report, the DF-17 HGV-armed medium-range ballistic missile system is “possibly intended to replace some older SRBM [short-range ballistic missile] units and is intended to strike foreign military bases and fleets in the Western Pacific, according to a PRC-based military expert.” PRC is the acronym for China’s official name, the People’s Republic of China.

Buying a house is the American dream, but maintaining that property in good shape can be challenging for homeowners.

This map, via Visual Capitalist, shows the 15 most expensive states in the U.S. to maintain a single-family home.

Methodology: Bankrate aggregated the average costs of property taxes, homeowners insurance, and home maintenance costs (estimated at 2% per year of the value of a single-family home). Calculations also included energy, internet, and cable bills. All figures adjusted for inflation as of June 2024.

Hawaii is the Most Expensive State to Maintain a Home

The average annual cost of owning and maintaining a single-family home in the U.S. is more than $18,000 yearly, a 26% increase compared to 2020.

With an average annual cost of $29,015, Hawaii is the most expensive state to maintain a home.

California comes in second with an average annual ownership cost of $28,790, followed by Massachusetts with $26,313.

Property taxes in New Jersey average $10,026 annually, the highest in the nation.

States with the Least Expensive Homeownership Costs

Kentucky is the least expensive place to own a home, with an average annual cost of $11,559, followed by Arkansas ($11,692) and Mississippi ($11,881).

If you enjoyed this post, be sure to check out this graphic, which shows what you need to earn to own a home in 50 American cities.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A federal jury has awarded $687,000 to a research scientist who was fired from BlueCross BlueShield in Tennessee for refusing to comply with the company’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

Tanja Benton, who had worked 16 years at the firm when she was fired, was awarded $177,240 in back pay, $10,000 in compensation, and $500,000 in punitive damages, according to a document made public by the federal court in eastern Tennessee on June 30.

Company officials told Ms. Benton in August of 2021 that she would need to be “fully vaccinated” to keep her position, according to her lawsuit. Ms. Benton refused, saying aborted fetal cell lines were involved in the development of the COVID-19 vaccines and she could not “in good conscience consume the vaccine, which would not only defile her body but also anger and dishonor God.”

BlueCross BlueShield said her position involved “regular external public-facing interactions” so she couldn’t keep it. Ms. Benton said her position became fully remote in 2020 but BlueCross BlueShield said it would have involved some in-person interaction with clients.

Ms. Benton was told to pursue other positions within the company and applied for two. But she was fired on Nov. 4, 2021, and told five days later that, “Unfortunately, all positions require the vax now,” according to an email entered in the case.

Her lawsuit charged that BlueCross BlueShield violated Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which says an employer may not “discharge any individual, or otherwise discriminate against any individual with respect to his compensation, terms, conditions, or privileges of employment” because of that person’s religion. Employers can disregard religious exemption requests if they can prove accommodating them would create undue hardship.

BlueCross BlueShield “cannot prove that allowing Plaintiff to continue her employment as a Bio Statistical Research Scientist without being vaccinated for COVID-19 constitutes an undue hardship,” the suit stated. The company “also cannot show that it made any good-faith efforts to accommodate plaintiff’s sincerely held religious beliefs.”

BlueCross BlueShield was also accused of violating the Tennessee Human Rights Act, which bars discrimination by employers at the state level.

“We’re disappointed by the decision,” Dalya Qualls White, chief communications officer for BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“We believe our vaccine requirement was the best decision for our employees and members, and we believe our accommodation to the requirement complied with the law. We appreciate our former employees’ service to our members and communities throughout their time with our company.”

A lawyer representing Ms. Benton did not respond to a request for comment.

The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, presented with the case, cleared Ms. Benton to sue her former employer.

Company lawyers had argued the firm would be unduly burdened by providing Ms. Benton an indefinite exception despite her role as a “public-facing employee.” The lawyers said she could not have continued working remotely indefinitely.

The company also asserted that Ms. Benton did not hold a sincerely held religious belief and “denies that the COVID-19 vaccine was derived from aborted fetus cell lines, which is verifiably false,” according to the company’s filing.

Johnson & Johnson used cells derived from an aborted fetus in the design, production, and testing of its COVID-19 vaccine. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines also utilized the cells in early testing. The companies have said the final products do not contain aborted fetal cells.

Authored by T J Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

President Joe Biden spoke to the nation from the Emergency Operations Center in Washington, on July 2, and announced five new actions to “address extreme weather, including heat and other hazards.”

“Extreme weather events don’t just affect people’s lives, they also cost money,” he said. “They hurt the economy, and they have a significant negative psychological effect on people.

“Last year, the largest weather related disasters cost over—get this—$90 billion in damages in America.”

Calling attention to the “nearly 2.5 million people” displaced in 2023 due to weather-related disasters, the president emphasized the threat extreme weather poses to transportation systems, power grids, farms, fisheries, and forests.

Extreme Heat

President Biden said the Department of Labor is proposing a new rule that, once finalized, will “establish the nation’s first-ever federal safety standard for excessive heat in the workplace.”

He said it would reduce heat injuries, illnesses, and deaths for more than 36 million in the workforce, including workers in the construction, postal, and manufacturing sectors.

The proposed rule would require employers to identify heat hazards, develop emergency response plans related to conditions affecting the head, and provide training to employees and supervisors on the signs and symptoms of heat-related illnesses. Employers would also be required to create rest breaks, provide shade and water, and allow new workers to acclimatize themselves to the heat.

According to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), “serious occupational heat-related illnesses and injuries become more frequent, especially in workplaces where unacclimatized workers are performing strenuous work” when the heat index is as low as 80°F. According to the NWS heat index calculator, that heat index could be when the air temperature is as low as 78.6°F with 60 percent relative humidity.

The Department of Health and Human Services and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported that approximately 2,302 heat-related deaths occurred in the United States in 2023.

“Already, tens of millions of Americans are under heat warnings from record shattering temperatures,” President Biden said.

“Last month here in DC, the temperature went to 100 degrees; In Phoenix, Arizona, 112 degrees; In Las Vegas, 111 degrees. Above normal temperatures also are expected for much of the country in July, especially in central and eastern United States.”

He said his administration would convene the first ever “White House Summer on extreme heat” to bring together state, local, tribal, and territorial leaders, as well as international partners in an effort to protect communities and workers from extreme weather.

New FEMA, EPA Actions

Aside from the heat, the president called out other types of extreme weather, such as Hurricane Beryl, currently in the southern Caribbean, saying it was “the earliest time ever a dangerous category five hurricane has been recorded in American history.”

He announced two new actions involving FEMA.

Once finalized, a new rule will require FEMA to factor the effects of future flooding into every federally funded construction project.

FEMA is also announcing nearly $1 billion in grants for more than 650 projects nationwide intended to help communities protect against natural disasters such as extreme heat, storms, and flooding.

President Biden emphasized these grants would advance his “Justice 40 Initiative,” which aims to deliver 40 percent of overall benefits, such as clean transit, clean energy, and climate investments, to “the poor communities always left behind.”

In addition, he announced that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would be releasing a new report showing continued impacts of climate change on the environment and the health of the American people.

US consumers have been well aware of the ‘shrinkflation’ phenomenon in recent years, but now there’s a new emerging trend: Some of the world’s largest packaged goods makers are getting very creative by rebranding existing products for expanding uses, then marked up substantially, and marketed in a way to trick consumers about some new blockbuster innovation. This is happening at a time when consumers are pulling back spending, and the goal of the new sales tactic is to drive more revenue with less. 

Bloomberg’s Leslie Patton and Deena Shanker penned a note explaining how packaged goods giants are quickly adopting a new strategy after years of ‘shrinkflation’ – called ‘upflation’ – an attempt to create new applications with existing products. 

What’s clear is that while the consumer in aggregate appears healthy, under the surface, low/mid-tier consumers are struggling and have entered an ultra-thrift phase. This means working poor consumers are pulling back on essential items that P&G, Unilever, and Edgewell sell. These companies have recorded declining sales volumes in recent quarters. 

In many cases, consumers are trading down products for more affordable private-label brands. Even more wealthy consumers are trading down high-end retailers for Walmart. Now, top brands are attempting to convince consumers to ditch private-label brands for their new innovative products. 

Companies have pointed out that upflation is working, and these existing products with expanded use are performing much better than previous forecasts. 

“P&G’s most recent earnings report highlighted an almost two-year trend where revenue growth came from people buying fewer things at higher prices. The consumer-goods giant did, however, post higher than expected sales in its grooming division, which it partly attributed to its total body shaving and intimate hair removal products. In an interview, the company said the total body deodorants are growing, too,” the journalists noted. 

However, not everyone is convinced about upflation. 

Maia James, who runs a product review site Gimme the Good Stuff, told Bloomberg, “Is this really something new or are they just marketing this as something different?”

One example of upflation is grooming startup Manscaped, which describes its shavers like a toothbrush: “Everyone needs it, no one wants to share it.” 

Another is all-over-body deodorants, who Aleta Simmons, a dermatologist in Nashville, said,  “I don’t think most people need them.” She added that anyone with severe body odor should seek a doctor. 

With expanded use and new marketing, these all-over-body deodorants are sold for double the price by major brands. 

The emergence of upflation appears to be only a North American phenomenon at the moment. It comes as companies attempt to boost sliding sales.

“I think a lot of people are craving simplicity,” said Kathryn Kellogg, who runs a lifestyle brand called Going Zero Waste. She said more consumers are shifting towards a low-consumption lifestyle. 

And we wonder why…

Andrea Wilkerson, vice president of P&G’s skin and personal care analytics and insights, said consumers are willing to pay for innovation. 

The question remains whether upflation—or essentially just rebranding an existing item for new applications—is enough to spur consumer demand for top brands amid sliding sales. 

A slew of companies have warned about a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, including General Mills Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Harmening last week, who said the current operating environment is becoming more complex.

Godman told clients in recent weeks that it’s time to short the ‘middle-income consumer‘… 

Earlier this year, “volume” cast a dark cloud over the annual Consumer Analyst Group of New York conference, where the major packaged food makers gathered to discuss industry trends. 

According to General Mills CEO Harmening, ice cream isn’t just a dessert anymore—it’s a snack for between meals with Haagen-Dazs Bites. Food companies are also getting creative to take old products and excite consumers about new applications. 

However, the outlook for upflation in the medium term remains uncertain, as consumers are grappling with elevated inflation, depleted personal savings, and insurmountable credit card debt. People will likely see through the upflation gimmick, opting instead to purchase cheaper private label brands and use them for multiple purposes.

Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

A new report claims that the Biden Administration has deliberately been flying illegal aliens into the United States after they had already been deported during the Trump Administration.

According to the Washington Free Beacon, internal memos and interviews with staff at Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) suggest that the Biden Administration has been running a secret program to fly previously-deported Cameroonians back into the country, after their asylum claims were previously denied.

The Cameroonian program was initiated in response to a report by Human Rights Watch in February of 2022, complaining about roughly 80 to 90 Cameroonians who had been deported between 2019 and 2021, when Donald Trump was President.

Despite their asylum claims all being rejected as invalid, many of them have since been transported back into the country in an unprecedented effort to purposefully bring more illegals onto American soil.

“Gutting deportations isn’t enough for the Biden administration, so now they’re apparently bringing back previously deported illegal aliens,” said Jon Feere, a former ICE official and director of investigations at the Center for Immigration Studies.

“These are people who have already had their cases closed, one way or another, and they’ve been returned home.”

The agency memos reveal that ICE officials have been working with nonprofit organizations to locate the deported Cameroonians so they can be brought back to the U.S. One example includes an email correspondence from Fatma Marouf, director of the Immigrant Rights Clinic at Texas A&M University, who informed ICE officials of the impending arrival of one such illegal, who flew into Dulles Airport in Virginia, near Washington D.C

“These individuals were deported by the order of a court after they were afforded all due process rights,” said Tom Blank, former chief of staff for ICE.

“For DHS to arbitrarily reverse court orders to satisfy complaints from an activist group makes a joke out of the entire legal immigration process. It looks like outside activist groups now run the DHS immigration process instead of the courts.”

These revelations further prove the extent to which the Biden Administration is willing to go in order to completely reverse the immigration policies of the Trump Administration. From his first day in office, Biden rescinded numerous immigration policies that secured the border, including a halt to construction of the border wall and ending Title 42 and the “Remain in Mexico” policy. Biden pledged on the campaign trail in 2020 that he would open the border and give free, taxpayer-funded benefits to illegals, including health care, housing, and education. New concerns have arisen over illegals being registered to vote shortly after arriving, which will most likely lead to an increase in voter fraud in key swing states in the upcoming presidential election.

Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,

A colleague recently discovered a website called “WTF Happened in 1971?”

The entire main page is filled with charts and graphs. All of them show some kind of significant shift beginning in 1971. There are over 75 of them!

Here are just a few examples:

Here is some more data from graphs on the website:

• African-American incomes virtually stopped catching up to white incomes in 1971.
• Median male income has flatlined compared to real GDP per capita since 1971.
• The number of 2-income families has surged since 1971.
• Price inflation has surged since 1971.
• A can of Campbell’s tomato soup has undergone significant shrinkflation since 1971. 
• Housing prices have skyrocketed since 1971.

What in the World Happened in 1971?

Clearly, something significant happened in 1971 causing a tremendous economic shift. 

What was it?

President Richard Nixon severed the dollar’s last connection with the gold standard, making it a purely free-floating fiat currency.

Nixon ordered Treasury Secretary John Connally to uncouple gold from its fixed $35 price and suspended the ability of foreign banks to directly exchange dollars for gold. During a national television address, Nixon promised the action would be temporary to “defend the dollar against the speculators.”

Nixon’s order was the end of a path off the gold standard that started during President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration. June 5, 1933, marked the beginning of a slow death of the dollar when Congress enacted a joint resolution erasing the right of private creditors in the United States to demand payment in gold. The move was the culmination of other actions taken by Roosevelt that year, including his infamous “gold confiscation” order.

While American citizens were legally prohibited from redeeming dollars for gold after Roosevelt’s policy changes, foreign governments maintained that privilege. In the 1960s, the Federal Reserve initiated an inflationary monetary policy to help monetize massive government spending for the Vietnam War and Pres. Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society.” With the dollar losing value due to these inflationary policies, foreign governments began to redeem dollars for gold.

This is exactly how a gold standard is supposed to work. It puts limits on the amount the money supply can grow and constrains the government’s ability to spend. If the government “prints” too much money, other countries will begin to redeem the devaluing currency for gold. This is what was happening in the 1960s. As gold flowed out of the U.S. Treasury, concern grew that the country’s gold holdings could be completely depleted.

Instead of insisting on fiscal and monetary discipline, Nixon simply severed the dollar from its last ties to gold, allowing the central bank to inflate the money supply without restraint.

When he announced the closing of the gold window, Nixon said, “Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation,” and promised, “Your dollar will be worth just as much as it is today.”

This was clearly a lie. That’s what all the charts on WTF Happened in 1971 reveal. 

According to the Consumer Price Index data released by the Bureau Labor of Statistics, the dollar has lost well over 80 percent of its value since Nixon’s fateful decision. Meanwhile, the dollar value of gold has gone from $35 an ounce to about $2,300.

And it decimated the middle class, creating significant socio-economic shifts.

You’ll only find one blurb of text on the WTF Happened in 1971 website. It’s a quote by economist F.A. Hayek.

“I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can’t take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can’t stop.”

Check out the work of the Sound Money Defense League to see what’s happening at the state level to do just that.