54.9 F
Chicago
Thursday, May 1, 2025
Home Blog Page 2515

Idaho Lawmakers Seek To Criminalize Injecting Of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines

0
Idaho Lawmakers Seek To Criminalize Injecting Of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Republican lawmakers from Idaho have introduced a bill that will make it a crime to administer mRNA vaccines in the state, citing safety concerns, which would apply to COVID-19 vaccines manufactured by companies like Pfizer and Moderna.

A health care worker prepares a dose of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in a file image. (Ezra Acayan/Getty Images)

“Notwithstanding any other provision of law, a person may not provide or administer a vaccine developed using messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology for use in an individual or any other mammal in this state. A person who violates this section is guilty of a misdemeanor,” according to House Bill 154 (pdf) presented to the state’s House Health and Welfare Committee on Feb. 15. The bill was introduced by state Sen. Tammy Nichols and Rep. Judy Boyle.

While promoting the bill before the committee, Nichols pointed out that there have been “more and more concerns rising” about the mRNA vaccines.

“We have issues that this was fast-tracked, there’s no liability, there’s no access to data, risk-benefit analysis has not been done, there’s no informed consent,” she said.

Nichols insisted that mRNA vaccines be treated in a “similar manner” to harmful drugs. She pointed out that there are “concerns of blood clots and heart issues” related to using COVID-19 mRNA vaccines which need to be addressed.

COVID-19 mRNA Approvals

At present, three types of COVID-19 vaccines exist—protein subunit, viral vector, and mRNA. Vaccines produced by Moderna and Pfizer, which have been widely distributed, come under mRNA categorization.

Around 400 million Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines and over 250 million Moderna vaccines have been administered in the United States.

According to the CDC, mRNA vaccines use mRNA developed in a laboratory to teach cells in a human body to produce a protein or part of a protein triggering an immune response. It is this immune response that then creates antibodies to fight the SARS-Cov-2 virus.

State Rep. Ilana Rubel, a Democrat, questioned Nichols about fast-track approvals granted to the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Rubel asked about the vaccines being initially approved under the “ordinary approval process” and subsequently passing the scrutiny of “normal tests.”

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 16:45

WTI Extends Losses After Another Massive Crude Build

0
WTI Extends Losses After Another Massive Crude Build

Oil prices fell for the 6th straight day – its longest of the year so far – as The Fed Minutes confirmed higher rates for longer, bringing into question growth/demand expectations for crude.

“Crude remains trapped in a choppy trading pattern, with rising interest rates, and thoughts of a slowing economy keeping downside pressure,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial Securities.

The price weakness is defying early optimism of a demand resurgence from China’s reopening, but reflects a shockingly high series of inventory builds across all cohorts in the last few weeks.

API

  • Crude +9.895mm

  • Cushing +481k

  • Gasoline +894k

  • Distillates +1.374mm

Inventories built across all cohorts with another major build in crude stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

As one veteran energy market trader MSG’d us, …wtf is with these numbers?”

We do note that the official data tomorrow will be tightly watched for the so-called ‘adjustments’ which have been dramatic to say the least in recent weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering around $74.00 ahead of the API print, and extended the day’s losses after…

“Crude oil prices dipped further with dollar strength in play as the expectations of rate hikes from the Fed continued to ramp up … Geopolitical concerns still running high this week, potentially providing a floor to oil prices. Overall, the oil market remains rangebound, in Brent between $80 and $89 and WTI between $73 and $82, as the market weighs the impact of rising demand in China and India versus a potential slowdown elsewhere,” Saxo Bank noted.

Morgan Stanley on Wednesday became the latest bank to trim price forecasts, projecting that the market will be oversupplied in the first quarter and balanced in the second quarter, before edging into a deficit in the second half.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 16:36

If We No Longer Pay Attention To Things We Don’t Control, What’s Left For Us To Focus On?

0
If We No Longer Pay Attention To Things We Don’t Control, What’s Left For Us To Focus On?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Our time is better invested in actually learning about trends that impact us directly.

Imagine making this simple change in your life: whatever you don’t control, you stop paying attention to it. This includes a vast array of “news” and “crises” that we have zero control over: the wretched flooding in Timbukthree, geopolitics, distant wars, macro-economic trends, politics above the micro-local level, and so on.

Once we stop paying attention to everything we don’t control, what’s left to focus on? The simple answer is “whatever we do control,” which tends to be in our household or individual sphere of influence: the duties, habits and rituals of everyday life. In other words, we control our responses to whatever forces we don’t control.

But wait a minute. Aren’t we supposed to be “engaged, informed citizens” so we can make informed decisions? And doesn’t this require us to pay attention to everything presented to us as “newsworthy,” “a dangerous crisis” and of “pressing national interest”?

That sounds nice, but precisely what “decisions” do we have a say in? We can vote for a toxic political party (there’s two choices! Wow!) or a candidate who raised big bucks by promising the moon to constituents and big-money contributors, and we can vote for or against a local bond issue or a local regulation that’s on the ballot.

How great is our control of whatever we’re voting on? Shall we admit it’s negligible?

Did anything we watched or read in the past few years change our minds, or do we vote pretty much as we’ve done for years because our views remain the same? For most people, the answer is “nothing I watched or read changed my views.” So what was the point of squandering hundreds of hours watching/reading “news,” “crises” and “commentary”?

These “decisions” come up every two years in some form. The rest of the time, exactly what is our control/influence? Posting tweets and social media comments? Uploading video rants? And how many people completely change their minds based on hyper-ventilating tweets or partisan outbursts, all of which tend to be one or two sentences long?

In today’s hyper-partisan divide, the short answer is “no one.” People tend to read what confirms their existing views and rage at whatever they disagree with. Neither changes any minds, nor engages those who have no interest in the staged spectacles in the Coliseum.

If the entire media/social media “industry” boils down to bias confirmation and outrage that changes nothing, then isn’t the whole thing nothing but perverse, deranging entertainment? In other words, we enjoy confirming our biases and trashing those who disagree with us, and switching seamlessly between puppies and kittens and dire warnings of doom.

The owners of media/social media know this, and so they go to great lengths to make their junk food for the mind especially addictive.

But there is an opportunity cost to investing so much of our time and energy in perverse entertainment, for those hours could have been invested in what we do control, i.e. our own lives.

This is the point of Self-Reliance: focus our time, capital and energy on what we do control and stop wasting time and energy on time-sinks and emotional mudpits we don’t control or influence at all.

Our time is better invested in actually learning about trends that impact us directly. Real learning takes time and study. This is the purpose of books. Other media are designed to influence without providing context or alternate histories. There is no way to cram the context and critiques into a short video program or a slide deck.

Unfortunately, reading books that are substantial enough to add to our understanding is losing ground to spectacles, which are of course designed to be more fun than actual learning.

Self-Reliance isn’t about controlling or influencing others, it’s about modifying our response to macro-trends so we not just survive but thrive. We don’t control our governance, economy or society, but we do control our response to unfavorable trends. We can change careers, change where we live, change who we associate with, expand our network of makers and producers and pursue many other consequential, positive actions.

I’m not immune to the charms of puppies and kittens and impending doom, but the trick is to limit one’s exposure as one might do to any dangerous form of radiation: a few minutes is OK but then shut down the source and return to investing in our own life.

New Podcast: Turmoil Ahead As We Enter The New Era Of ‘Scarcity’ (53 min)

*  *  *

My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century. Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 16:20

Bonds & Dollar Bid As Fed Minutes Spark Selloff In Stocks & Gold

0
Bonds & Dollar Bid As Fed Minutes Spark Selloff In Stocks & Gold

St.Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard buoyed the market briefly ahead of the cash open by being slightly less hawkish than his usual full hawktard self, but that didn’t last. The cash open saw the ubiquitous bid evaporate quickly to the lows of the day but the dip-buyers ramped back in to lift stocks into the Fed Minutes.

And while macro data has soared since the last FOMC meeting, so have inflation expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

The biggest takeaway from the Minutes appeared to be the contradiction of Fed Chair Powell’s nonchalance at the easing of financial conditions, which is in itself a hawkish shift (despite an overall sentiment gauge suggesting this was a notably dovish minutes):

“Participants noted that it was important that overall financial conditions be consistent with the degree of policy restraint that the Committee is putting into place in order to bring inflation back to the 2 percent goal.”

The markets have a long way to go catch up to that reality…

All of which left stocks lower (but not dramatically so) on the day with The Dow and S&P the biggest losers…

The S&P broke 4,000 and tested the 200DMA before bouncing late on…

The cash open short squeeze faded really fast…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, using information from SpotGamma’s Hiro Indicator, the opening bounce was all call-buying (momentum ignition) and the rebound around 1030ET was also heavy call buying (and put covering). But once the Fed Minutes hit, a wave of heavy put buying came in (but even more notably, call buying was consistent – though smaller in magnitude – all the way down in the stock slide)…

Source: SpotGamma

VIX spiked up to the highs of the year this morning before fading back and then rallying once again as stocks sold off…

Treasury yields ended the day lower with the belly underperforming (7Y -1bps, 2Y -2.5bps, 30Y -4bps) leaving the belly lagging the long-end on the week so far.Yields did rise after the Minutes. The yield curve reversed all of yesterday’s steepening…

Source: Bloomberg

Ahead of the Minutes, the market’s expectation for the Fed’s terminal rate was 5.33% (July) and 13bps of rate-cuts priced-in for H2 2023. Both shifted hawkishly after the Minutes…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended yesterday’s gains, erasing the majority of Friday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin slipped lower again, back below $24,000…

Source: Bloomberg

NatGas prices (Henry Hub) tumbled to $1 handle for the first time since Sept 2020 before ripping higher on reports that Chesapeake Energy will slow production…

And for context, US NatGas is trading at its biggest discount (on an oil barrel equivalent basis) to WTI Crude since 2012…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices are down for the 6th straight day with WTI back to a $73 handle

Gold slipped lower today, unable to hold $1850 again…

Finally, we note that The Mortgage Bankers Association data this morning showed the weakest level of Purchase Applications since August 1995…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, The Cleveland Fed’s own inflation forecasting model shows that the disinflation of the past few months has now come to an end (or a pause)…

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly answering the ‘pivot’-positioned prayers.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 16:01

Ron Paul: The Inflation & Tax Assault On The American People

0
Ron Paul: The Inflation & Tax Assault On The American People

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

According to the January report of the Consumer Price Index, price inflation increased by 0.5 percent last month. This follows a 0.1 percent increase in December. The total increase over the last 12 months is 6.4 percent. The official government statistics, which are manipulated to understate the true rate of price inflation, show even greater increases in some costs. Over the last 12 months, food prices increased by 10.1 percent, energy prices increased by 8.7 percent, and shelter costs rose by 7.9 percent.

The government’s figures also record a 0.2 percent decline in real wages in January and a 1.8 percent decline from a year earlier.

Keep in mind that actual real wages losses have been larger because the government’s real wage numbers are calculated using the government’s understated price inflation numbers.

The Federal Reserve-caused decline in purchasing power disproportionately harms middle- and lower-income Americans, many of whom were already living paycheck to paycheck before the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented money creation caused especially large increases in price inflation.

According to a Morning Consult survey from June of 2022, price inflation has caused over 40 percent of US consumers to eat out less. This obviously reduces the opportunity of wait staff to earn tips that constitute a significant portion of their incomes. This loss is in addition to the lost income from during the coronavirus scare, when many restaurants either closed entirely or only offered takeout or delivery.

The reduction in tip income is not stopping the Internal Revenue Service from trying to squeeze more taxes out of waiters and waitresses. The tax agency has announced this month the creation of the Service Industry Tip Compliance Agreement (SITCA) program. As the name suggests, the program will allow the tax agency to collect data on tips directly from restaurants, instead of relying on employees to report their tips.

SITCA is one of the first initiatives to use some of the 80 billion dollars in additional funding provided to the IRS in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act. President Biden and other supporters of the legislation said the funds were to enable the IRS to crack down on millionaire and billionaire “tax cheats.” President Biden and the bureaucrats running the IRS must think there are a lot of waiters and waitresses making billions in tips.

At the time of the bill’s passage, many opponents of increasing the IRS’s enforcement budget predicted the agency would use the additional funds to target middle- and lower-income Americans. After all, unlike wealthier individuals, these Americans cannot afford tax attorneys and accountants to make sure they minimize their tax liability without violating the tax law.

Also, wealthy taxpayers are more likely (and able) to fight an IRS audit. In contrast, lower income Americans are more likely to pay whatever the tax agency demands in order to make it go away since they don’t have the resources to fight it.

When I was in Congress, I introduced legislation to make tips tax free. Tips are a gift provided by customers to show appreciation to servers. Very rarely is there a contractual obligation for a customer to add a tip (much less a pre-determined amount) to his bill. There is no reason to tax tips other than the government’s desire to take more money from working people.

The fact that the funding the IRS was given to prevent the wealthy from avoiding taxes is actually being used to target waiters is an example of how the welfare-warfare state harms working Americans. At the same time, lower- and middle-income Americans are harmed the most by the Federal Reserve’s inflation tax. The best thing Congress could do to help Americans improve their standard of living and climb the economic ladder is to kill the monsters of 1913 — the Federal Reserve and the IRS.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 15:05

President Trump Vows To “Clean House Of Deep State”, Warns World War III Has “Never Been Closer”

0
President Trump Vows To “Clean House Of Deep State”, Warns World War III Has “Never Been Closer”

In a video posted to Truth Social this week, former President Donald Trump has warned that World War III has “never been closer”. 

Just hours after President Biden made his visit to Ukraine, Trump took to video to offer the warning: 

“World War Three has never been closer than it is right now.” 

“We need to clean house of all of the warmongers and ‘America Last’ globalists, and the deep state, the Pentagon, the State Department and the national-security industrial complex,” he continued. 

He said of current administration, Pentagon and deep state officials: 

“These people have been seeking confrontation for a long time. Now we’re teetering on the brink of World War III and a lot of people don’t see it.”

Trump specifically called out US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, and claimed that many others like her “are obsessed with pushing Ukraine into NATO”.

He continued: “In America, we need to get rid of representatives of the corrupt establishment who have ruined every important foreign policy decision. This includes President Biden, who his people say has not made any good decisions in the context of other countries and wars.”

“If you look and understand what steps Biden is taking regarding Ukraine, you will see that he is systematically, but perhaps unconsciously, pushing us into what could soon turn into the Third World War,” Trump wrote on Truth Social this week. 

“They are candidates of war. I am the President who delivers peace – and peace through strength,” he concluded. “We could end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours with the right leadership.”

In an address earlier this week, Trump told a group in West Palm Beach, “We have two ‘n’ words. Neither of which should ever be mentioned.”

“You know what the one is, but the other is the ‘nuclear’ word. It’s not supposed to ever be mentioned. It’s mentioned every single day now. We are on the precipice of a disaster the likes of which we have never seen.”

“This will make World War I and World War II look like baby stuff,” he warned. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 14:50

Oversight Committee Demands Account Of All Economic, Military Aid To Ukraine

0
Oversight Committee Demands Account Of All Economic, Military Aid To Ukraine

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics.com,

As President Biden boarded a European train destined for Kyiv, back in Washington, Rep. James Comer and his team drafted a long-expected letter.

Standing next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Biden pledged Monday that the lifeline of economic and military aid to that nation, support already well in excess of $100 billion, would not slack, and that the United States would stand with Ukraine “as long as it takes.”

Comer, the new chair of the House Oversight Committee, delivered a different message to the Biden administration Wednesday: Save your receipts. All of them.

The committee is calling on the administration to turn over all documents and internal communications “regarding any economic assistance programs for the Ukrainian government” and to turn over similar material “regarding any anti-corruption efforts” as they relate to both financial and military aid.

The notice comes on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion. The letter announces the beginning of what promises to be the most comprehensive audit of the war effort to date. It was obtained first and exclusively by RealClearPolitics.

“Providing security and humanitarian assistance for warfighting and reconstruction purposes comes with an inherent risk of fraud, waste, and abuse,” Comer wrote, before insisting that the U.S. must develop “oversight mechanisms” to mitigate risks made worse by mandates to spend money “quickly.”

House Republicans are casting a wide net. The committee wants a comprehensive account of “strategies for end-use monitoring of weapons, equipment, direct budgeting assistance, and any other form of economic or security assistance for the Ukrainian people.” They are also calling for all materials related to how much federal money has been spent thus far “and how much remains in the spending pipeline.”

Comer furthermore wants to know about, and calls on the administration to disclose, material related to “any benchmarks for success” of aid programs as well as “any conditions imposed on funds provided as assistance to Ukraine.”

The letter was addressed to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and Administrator Samantha Powers of the U.S. Agency for International Development. The White House knew it was coming. Speaker Kevin McCarthy said ahead of the midterms that a Republican House wouldn’t write “a blank check” to Ukraine, and it was only a matter of time before the GOP made good on that oversight promise.

There are reasons for concern. While Zelensky rose to power on an anti-corruption platform, the former Eastern Bloc country has a history of struggling with government fraud and graft. They regularly rank toward the bottom of international corruption indexes, a track record that has even ardent supporters of the defensive war worried.

When Sen. Angus King traveled to Ukraine last month, the independent from Maine told RCP he warned Zelensky that misappropriation of funds or misplaced guns could undermine support in the West: “I said a scandal would really screw this up.”

That message was well received. According to King, “He got it immediately.” But verbal assurances are not enough to assuage Republican concerns, and according to the Joint Strategic Oversight Plan for Ukraine Response report, the administration has struggled to account exactly for all the billions spent. The Pentagon Inspector General, for instance, warned that the department was “unable to provide end-use monitoring in accordance with DoD policy.”

One of the specific areas Comer is demanding answers on: The policy requires tracking the serial numbers of weapons and ammunition, as USA Today and others previously noted, to ensure they are used as intended.

Congress has appropriated $113 billion in economic and security aid to Ukraine since Russian tanks rolled across the border. Over the course of two decades, by comparison, the U.S. spent $146 billion to send military and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.

The administration insists that they take corruption seriously and have taken steps to guard against it from the beginning of the conflict. They just haven’t seen any maleficence thus far, according to John Kirby who said last month that neither military nor financial assistance “have fallen prey to any kind of corruption in Ukraine.”

“Correct,” Biden’s national security spokesman replied without qualification when RCP asked him to confirm that the administration had not yet identified any previous misuse of equipment or misappropriation of funds from the United States.

The Oversight Committee highlighted that exchange in light of reports that Zelensky had fired several senior officials who were allegedly engaged in bribery and misuse of public funds. “Based on Mr. Kirby’s remarks,” Comer wrote in the letter, “the U.S. National Security Council appears unaware of this corruption scandal, heightening concerns that U.S. agencies are not conducting oversight of taxpayer assistance to Ukraine.”

But responding to those reports directly, Kirby told reporters that the firing of senior Ukrainian officials demonstrated how Zelensky and the U.S. shared concerns over corruption allegations “and it is apparent that he takes it seriously.” Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs, later echoed that sentiment telling the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the staffing changes in Kyiv sent “a very strong signal to others who would try to rip off this war effort.”

If Comer received the signal from afar, he doesn’t see anything reassuring in it. The chairman wrote that agencies must work overtime to ensure that U.S. taxpayer dollars spent in Ukraine are used “for their intended purposes to prevent and reduce the risk of waste, fraud, and abuse.”

The Kentucky Republican is calling on the administration to detail information related to any anti-corruption efforts going back to Feb. 24 of last year, the date of the Russian invasion. His committee expects those materials “as soon as possible,” but they have given the administration a two-week deadline. The Oversight Committee expects that information “no later than March 8, 2023.”

A senior administration official told RCP in January that Biden believes “oversight is critical” and that the administration takes “very seriously our responsibility to work with the Ukrainian government to ensure appropriate safeguards are in place so that U.S.-funded assistance reaches those for whom it is intended.”

The official reiterated that they have “not seen credible evidence” of U.S. military aid being used anywhere but the battlefield and pointed RCP to the whole-of-government plan “to prevent and counter illicit diversion of weapons and military equipment.” That plan was released by the State Department last October, eight months after the conflict began and well after Congress appropriated tens of billions of dollars in aid.

They noted also that economic assistance is administered by the World Bank. The administration contracts with the national consulting firm Deloitte as a third-party monitor “to review financial controls and procedures utilized by the Government of Ukraine to track and oversee U.S. funds.” USAID administers humanitarian assistance, and according to the official, that agency has internal safeguards to counter fraud while also employing an unnamed third-party contractor to monitor funds.

Republicans say those steps are vague and cold comfort at best in light of the last two decades of prior experience. When it comes to the World Bank and NGOs, they are calling for all material related to how multilateral organizations were employed and want “any information regarding any oversight mechanisms.”

“We learned from efforts in Afghanistan that the World Bank does not always have effective monitoring and accounting of funds, and often lacks transparency,” Comer wrote, before adding that “unrealistic timelines and expectations that prioritize spending quickly lead to increased corruption and reduced effectiveness of programs.”

Conservatives have always been wary of massive government spending. Nothing changes, Comer told RCP last month, just because a war is on. “With any massive government spending comes the opportunity for waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement,” he said. “Ukraine aid is no different.”

While the White House gives Ukraine high marks for steps that they’ve taken to root out malfeasance, they insist they are on the lookout. After all, Kirby told reporters last month, corruption remains an ever-present danger in all conflicts. “You can’t forget that,” he said. “I mean, it’s a war.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 14:25

FOMC Minutes Suggest Fed Fears Financial Conditions Decoupling, Warns About High Equity Valuations

0
FOMC Minutes Suggest Fed Fears Financial Conditions Decoupling, Warns About High Equity Valuations

Tl:dr: Fed Minutes appear to argue against what Powell said during the presser on the decoupling of financial conditions from monetary policy: 

Powell declined to try to talk down financial markets, pointedly noting that it wasn’t up to him to persuade people, saying:

“We’re just going to have to see.”

By contrast, it seems like there were others on the panel that were concerned.

“Participants noted that it was important that overall financial conditions be consistent with the degree of policy restraint that the Committee is putting into place in order to bring inflation back to the 2 percent goal.”

Additionally:

“several participants observed that some measures of financial conditions had eased over the past few months.”

While Powell said at the meeting

“Financial conditions didn’t really change much from the December meeting to now.”

And there’s a long way to go to catch up…

Overall, Bloomberg’s sentiment model suggests the Minutes were more dovish than the last…

That is the most dovish statement in at least two years.

But, David Wilcox of Bloomberg Economics noted on BTV, there is only a single mention of a “pause” in rates — and that one is in reference to other central banks!

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting (on Feb 1st) when Chair Powell dismissed any fears about loosening financial conditions, prompting a panic-bid in stocks, financial conditions have done nothing but tighten as the FedSpeak along with ‘good’ economic news has nuked the ‘Fed pivot’ narrative…

Source: Bloomberg

That is even more evident in the hawkish explosion higher in the market’s expectation for The Fed’s terminal rate and the collapse in hopes of a H2 2023 rate-cut…

Source: Bloomberg

With the odds of 25bp hikes in March, May, and June all rising rapidly…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which has prompted chaos across asset classes with gold and bonds down notably, bitcoin and the dollar stronger and stocks fading fast in the last few days…

Source: Bloomberg

And if there is one final thing to consider before The Minutes come out, it’s the fact that US macro data has dramatically surprised to the upside (and sticky inflation expectations along with it):

  • the 517,000 surge in January payrolls that blew away estimates

  • the re-acceleration of month-on-month CPI inflation in January

  • the biggest jump in the ISM services gauge since mid-2020

  • the largest increase in retail sales in nearly two years

…making the Minutes very stale.

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, Fed Chair Powell actually told us during the press conference on Feb 1st that:

The minutes will come out in three weeks and will give you a lot of detail. We spend a lot of time talking about the path ahead and the state of the economy. And I wouldn’t want to start to describe all the details there, but that was — the sense of the discussion was really talking quite a bit about the path forward.”

While the biggest issue to watch for is just how dovish sentiment really is within The Fed, we already know that at least two Fed members pushed for 50bps (Mester and Bullard) at the last meeting, so what will The Minutes tell us (now that they are so stale)…

On 25 or 50 bps

In their consideration of appropriate monetary policy actions at this meeting, participants concurred that the Committee had made significant progress over the past year in moving toward a sufficiently restrictive stance of monetary policy. Even so, participants agreed that, while there were recent signs that the cumulative effect of the Committee’s tightening of the stance of monetary policy had begun to moderate inflationary pressures, inflation remained well above the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent and the labor market remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.

Against this backdrop, and in consideration of the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, almost all participants agreed that it was appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting. Many of these participants observed that a further slowing in the pace of rate increases would better allow them to assess the economy’s progress toward the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and price stability as they determine the extent of future policy tightening that will be required to attain a stance that is sufficiently restrictive to achieve these goals.

A few participants stated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 50 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported raising the target by that amount. The participants favoring a 50-basis point increase noted that a larger increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, taking into account their views of the risks to achieving price stability in a timely way.

All participants agreed that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings, as described in its previously announced Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet.

On Risk Management

“Almost all participants observed that slowing the pace of rate increases at the current juncture would allow for appropriate risk management.”

On Inflation

“A number of participants observed that a policy stance that proved to be insufficiently restrictive could halt recent progress in moderating inflationary pressures.”

The Fed staff doesn’t see inflation moving back to 2% until 2025:

“With steep declines in consumer energy prices and a substantial moderation in food price inflation expected for this year, total inflation was projected to step down markedly this year and then to track core inflation over the following two years. In 2025, both total and core PCE price inflation were expected to be near 2 percent.”

On market valuations

“The staff judged that asset valuation pressures remained notable. In particular, the staff noted that measures of valuations in both residential and commercial property markets remained high, and that the potential for large declines in property prices remained greater than usual. In addition, the forward price-to-earnings ratio for S&P 500 firms remained above its median value despite the decline in equity prices over the past year.”

On Household Spending Slowdown

“In their discussion of the household sector, participants noted that growth in consumer spending had softened recently. Several participants remarked that there had been a reduction in discretionary expenditures, especially among lower- and middle-income households, whose purchases were shifting toward lower-cost options.”

On Labor Hoarding

“A number of participants remarked that some businesses were keen to retain workers after their recent experiences of labor shortages and hiring challenges. These participants noted that this consideration had limited layoffs even as the broader economy had softened”

On The Debt Limit

“A number of participants stressed that a drawn-out period of negotiations to raise the federal debt limit could pose significant risks to the financial system and the broader economy.”

On financial conditions

…officials said it was important “that overall financial conditions be consistent with the degree of policy restraint that the Committee is putting into place in order to bring inflation back to the 2 percent goal.”

Additionally:

“several participants observed that some measures of financial conditions had eased over the past few months.”

While Powell said at the meeting

“Financial conditions didn’t really change much from the December meeting to now.”

Still a long way to go to normalize back to monetary policy…

But, David Wilcox of Bloomberg Economics noted on BTV, there is only a single mention of a “pause” in rates — and that one is in reference to other central banks!

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 14:07

Trump Endorses Mental Competency Testing For Presidential Candidates

0
Trump Endorses Mental Competency Testing For Presidential Candidates

Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times,

Former President Donald Trump on Feb. 21 welcomed the idea of requiring those intending to run for U.S. president to go through mental competency examination.

“ANYBODY running for the Office of President of the United States should agree to take a full & complete Mental Competency Test simultaneously (or before!) with the announcement that he or she is running, & likewise, but to a somewhat lesser extent, agree to a test which would prove that you are physically capable of doing the job,” Trump, 76, said on his social media platform Truth Social on Tuesday.

“​Being an outstanding President requires great mental acuity & physical stamina. If you don’t have these qualities or traits, it is likely you won’t succeed. MAGA!​” he wrote.

Trump echoed earlier remarks by former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, who announced her 2024 presidential bid on Feb. 14, about requiring mental competency tests for politicians over 75.

Haley, 51, threaded her Feb. 15 presidential campaign kickoff speech with the theme of a “new generation” of leadership, distinguishing her relatively young profile from those of her competitors, including Trump, potentially President Joe Biden, and others in Congress who are over the age of 70.

According to a Business Insider report, about 23 percent of Congress is currently over 70 years old, marking the highest percentage in U.S. history.

While roughly half of the U.S. population is aged 38 and younger, Congress only has 5 percent of its members within that demographic, the study found, with a median age of 61.5 in 2020.

“In the America I see, the permanent politician will finally retire,” Haley said in her concluding remarks, speaking to an audience at the Charleston Visitor Center.

“We’ll have term limits for Congress, and mandatory mental competency tests for politicians over 75 years old.”

Haley’s statements have received mixed responses. Former presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), 81, called Haley’s remarks “absurd” when he appeared on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Feb. 18.

Haley dismissed Sanders’s criticisms, saying it is “exactly what a career politician and socialist would say,” in a statement to The Epoch Times on Feb. 20.

The issue of a president’s age began floating around the time of the 2020 presidential election when some frontrunners—including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sanders, and Trump—were over 70. Then-presidential candidate Joe Biden became the oldest in American history to run at the age of 77.

Since Biden announced his presidential bid, and after his inauguration, many questioned his cognitive state, often citing his public gaffes as signs that he is unfit to govern.

Last October, a month before he turned 80, Biden said it is “totally legitimate” for voters to factor in his age in judging his capacity to govern and that people should decide whether his abilities are adequate for the job.

On the same topic, Trump said in 2022 that Biden’s age did not make him an “old man.”

“President Biden is one of the oldest 79s in History, but by and of itself, he is not an old man,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on July 10, 2022.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 13:58

This “Anti-Cathie Wood” Fund Manager Has Amassed $92 Billion AUM In Just Under 7 Years

0
This “Anti-Cathie Wood” Fund Manager Has Amassed $92 Billion AUM In Just Under 7 Years

Co-founder of GQG Partners, Rajiv Jain, is being dubbed the “anti Cathie Wood”. He doesn’t spout off on Twitter and he invests in boring, cash generative companies, instead of speculative technology names. 

His portfolio is laden with names in oil, tobacco and banking, Bloomberg wrote in a recent profile. But this strategy has been a success. Jain has built a $92 billion fund in less than 7 years since he started. Three of its four funds beat the benchmark in 2022, the report says. 

Jain’s Goldman Sachs GQG Partners International Opportunities Fund has gained 10.8% per year since its inception in December 2016, utilizing his strategy of taking large positions in individual names. He calls himself a true “quality growth manager” while referring to his competition as “quote-unquote quality growth managers.” Bloomberg says that he thinks of them as “imposters”. 

Jain doesn’t mind taking larger swings at companies with impenetrable balance sheets. “We try to take less absolute risk. The businesses we own generate lot of free cash flow. So the risk of us losing on an absolute basis is a lot lower. But sometimes that means you have to take more relative risk,” he said.

He told Bloomberg: “These kinds of volatile years actually allow you to differentiate a little bit more. A lot of ‘quality growth’ managers basically blew up. We found out whether they really own quality.”

This year his international fund is up just 3.4% versus the benchmark’s 7.8%, as 2023 started with a respite for speculative technology names that the market hasn’t given back yet. “I’m not a happy camper these days,” he says. His strategy is to invest in 40 to 50 large caps in his international fund, compared to the thousands that are included in the benchmark. 

Two of his largest holdings are British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International. 

Jain started cutting his exposure to technology in late 2021, exemplifying one trait that he thinks sets himself apart from other managers: the ability to recognize mistakes and change course. “Investing is a game of survival because most people won’t survive in the long run. So that should be the mindset rather than trying to win all the time. It’s as much about avoiding losing rather than trying to win,” he told Bloomberg. 

Colleagues describe him as risk-adverse. Gregg Wolper, a senior analyst at Morningstar, said: “He is so much more cautious than other growth managers. He has a combination of confidence and yet some humility in understanding that he might be wrong about something,” he continued. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/22/2023 – 11:54