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General Mills Shares Slide On Dismal Sales Outlook Amid Consumer Pullback 

General Mills Shares Slide On Dismal Sales Outlook Amid Consumer Pullback 

General Mills shares plunged nearly 8% at the start of the US cash session, marking its steepest intra-day drop since May 2022. The decline followed the packaged-food company’s report of fourth-quarter sales that missed average analyst estimates, coupled with a full-year sales forecast that also fell short. This disappointing outlook signals more evidence of a consumer pullback amid elevated food prices and builds on our weak consumer theme. 

The maker of Lucky Charms cereal and Yoplait yogurt reported net sales of $4.71 billion, -6.3% year over year for the quarter, below the average estimate tracked by Bloomberg of $4.87 billion. Volumes for the quarter were also lower in its North American retail business and pet segment. Also, retailers were reducing inventory in the quarter.  

Here’s a snapshot of General Mills’ fourth quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Adjusted EPS $1.01 vs. $1.12 y/y, estimate $1.00

  • Adjusted gross margin 34.9% vs. 35% y/y, estimate 34%

  • Net sales $4.71 billion, -6.3% y/y, estimate $4.87 billion

  • North America Retail Net Sales $2.85 billion, -6.9% y/y, estimate $2.93 billion

  • North America Foodservice Net Sales $589.0 million, +4.4% y/y, estimate $571.1 million

  • Pet Segment Net Sales $602.1 million, -8.1% y/y, estimate $627.4 million

  • International net sales $667.5 million, -10% y/y, estimate $730.2 million

  • Organic net sales -6%, estimate -3.31%

  • North America Retail organic net sales -7%, estimate -4.41%

  • Pet organic net sales -8%, estimate -4.32%

  • Change in North America Foodservice Organic Net Sales +4%, estimate +1.04%

  • Change in International Organic Net Sales -10%, estimate -2.58%

  • Organic sales volume -2.0 pts, estimate -2.36

  • North America retail organic sales volume -6.0 pts, estimate -2.3

  • Pet organic sales volume -7.0 pts, estimate -5.27

  • International organic sales volume +1.0 pts, estimate -2.67

  • North America retail organic sales price/mix -1.0 pts, estimate -2.91

  • Pet organic sales price/mix -1.0 pts, estimate +1.05

  • North America foodservice organic sales price/mix +1.0, estimate +0.98

For the current fiscal year, the company forecasts organic sales to range between flat and a 1% increase, falling short of the average analyst estimate of 1.18%.

  • Sees organic net sales 0% to +1%, estimate +1.18% (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Sees adj. EPS in constant currency -1% to +1%

  • Sees Adjusted operating loss in constant-currency -2% to 0%

General Mills Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Harmening called the macroeconomic landscape “a more challenging operating environment.” 

This comes as elevated interest rates and persistent inflation have triggered a consumer slowdown, mainly affecting the working poor segment, but new evidence of stress has emerged in the middle class.

Consumers have been cutting back on spending in recent months and buying less food. Some consumers are replacing branded goods with cheaper, private label versions, while others are simply making do with less — particularly for packaged foods. The company said it expects consumers to continue seeking value given the economic environment. -Bloomberg

Pro subs have been provided the theme of the consumer slowdown in various notes, the most recent one being titled Goldman Tells Top Clients To Start “Shorting The Middle-Income Consumer.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 12:05

Bitcoin Donor Pays For Julian Assange’s $520,000 Charter Jet

Bitcoin Donor Pays For Julian Assange’s $520,000 Charter Jet

In an anonymous effort to help secure Julian Assange’s freedom, an anonymous Bitcoiner donated over 8 Bitcoin, worth around $500,000, to help Assange’s family pay off the debt incurred by his charter jet and settlement expenses, CoinTelegraph reported.

On June 24, Assange was released from the high-security Belmarsh prison in the United Kingdom after reaching a plea agreement with U.S. authorities. Shortly after his release, he departed the U.K. on a private plane from a London airport to Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. territory.

Assange appeared in a district court in Saipan on June 26, where he pleaded guilty to one charge of breaching the U.S. Espionage Act by leaking classified documents. The journey was planned to prevent Assange from touching foot on American soil.

In an interview, Stella Assange, Assange’s wife, stated that “freedom comes at a cost.” Assange is required to pay $520,000 to the Australian government for the “forced” chartering of flight VJ199 to travel to Saipan and Australia. Stella started a crowdfunding page to help the jailed founder with his debts after his return home to Australia.

The donation link was posted by Stella Assange on June 25, and within 10 hours, an anonymous Bitcoiner paid over 8 Bitcoin to the fund, almost clearing the goal of $520,000. He has also received over 300,000 British pounds ($380,000) in fiat donations so far.

The single Bitcoin donation was the largest donation to the fund, more than all other donations in all currencies combined. As a result, Assange will arrive in Australia debt free.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 11:45

Yen Tumbles To 1986 Lows After Japanese ‘Currency Chief’ Comments; Gold, Oil, & Bonds Dump

Yen Tumbles To 1986 Lows After Japanese ‘Currency Chief’ Comments; Gold, Oil, & Bonds Dump

The market is testing Japanese officials… and so far it’s winning…

Reaffirming its constant stance of jawboning over actual intervention, Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda said late Wednesday that the government is watching the yen with a high level of urgency as he described the currency’s latest moves as “rapid” and “one sided.”

“I have serious concern about the recent rapid weakening of the yen and are closely monitoring market trends with a high sense of urgency,” Kanda told reporters late Wednesday.

“We will take necessary actions against any excessive movements,” he said.

Kanda refrained from commenting if the yen’s latest move was excessive.

This ‘status quo’ sent the yen lower against the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

…breaking down to its weakest since 1986…

Source: Bloomberg

Earlier this week, Kanda said authorities were ready to intervene in currency markets at any time around the clock if needed.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said they are closely monitoring developments in the market and will take all possible measures as needed.

“If the moves start to get disorderly north of 160, they may come in to smooth the move,” said Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co in New York.

“Buy until the BOJ tilts more hawkish, upside for USD/JPY is the path of least resistance.”

Well, it’s starting to look ‘disorderly’.

“Given quarter-end dollar demand and the fact that the volatility environment remains contained, Japanese authorities might wait a bit more before intervening once again,” said Roberto Cobo Garcia, head of G-10 FX strategy at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Madrid.

“Volatility needs to rise more if they are to step in again.”

The yen weakness sent the dollar higher and triggered selling in Gold…

…and oil…

…and Treasuries…

Japan has acknowledged it spent ¥9.8 trillion ($61.3 billion) intervening in currency markets between April 26 and May 29.

Although specific dates weren’t disclosed, trading patterns suggest major interventions occurred on April 29 and May 1.

Data on foreign reserves suggest Japan sold Treasuries to fund these actions.

Previous action by Japan to support its currency market has raise eyebrows overseas, with the US Treasury Department last week adding the nation to its “monitoring list” for foreign-exchange practices.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 09:52

You Can’t Taper A Ponzi Scheme

You Can’t Taper A Ponzi Scheme

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

“You can’t taper a Ponzi scheme.”

Financial commentator and Bitcoin pioneer Max Keiser originally said these simple yet profound words.

A Ponzi scheme is an unsustainable scam that relies on a continuous influx of new money to keep it going. The scheme collapses if the flow of new money slows down or tapers.

Many believe the Federal Reserve is running what amounts to a giant Ponzi scheme.

That’s because the US government’s obscene spending and skyrocketing debt have reached an inflection point where the whole system will collapse unless the Fed pumps an ever-increasing amount of new fake money into the system.

Government spending is the leading cause of the problem. However, the government cannot even slow the growth rate of spending, let alone cut it.

Here’s why.

The biggest expenditures for the US government are so-called entitlements. It’s unlikely any politician will cut these. On the contrary, I expect them to continue growing as the last Baby Boomers enter retirement in 2031.

With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, so-called defense spending seems unlikely to be cut. Instead, it is all but certain to increase.

Income Security is a catch-all category for different types of welfare. That’s unlikely to be cut too.

Efforts to reduce expenditures will be meaningless unless it becomes politically acceptable to cut entitlements, national defense, and welfare.

Further, interest expense is exploding higher.

The federal interest expense recently exceeded $1 trillion for the first time and is shooting higher. That means the interest expense is already bigger than defense spending and everything else in the budget except for Social Security, which it will also likely exceed soon.

The cost of debt service (interest expense) is taking up a larger portion of the budget, leaving less for other expenditures. That means the government has to borrow increasingly larger amounts to maintain basic functions.

The situation is compounded by the fact that the more the US government borrows, the larger the interest expense on the federal debt, which causes it to borrow even more.

Borrowing money to pay debt service is the inflection point in the debt spiral, and the US is at that point.

Here’s the bottom line with the budget.

Expenditures have nowhere to go but up.

But don’t count on increased revenue to offset these increases in expenditures. Even if tax rates went to 100%, it would not be enough to stop the deficits—and the debt needed to finance them—from growing.

The truth is, no matter what happens, the debt will not stop growing. It’s not even going to slow down. The debt is increasing exponentially.

The only way the US government can continue to finance itself is for the Fed to create ever-increasing amounts of fake money.

If the Fed doesn’t provide more monetary accommodation to lower interest rates, the growing interest expense will bankrupt the US government… and bring down the entire debt-based economy with it.

In short, the Fed must print ever-increasing quantities of fake money, or the system will collapse.

Ludwig von Mises, the godfather of free-market Austrian economics, summed up the Fed’s dilemma:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

The US government will not voluntarily “abandon credit expansion,” as Mises puts it because Washington is dependent on issuing increasing amounts of debt to pay for the ever-growing costs of Social Security, national defense, welfare, and interest on the federal debt.

As Max Keiser succinctly said, “You can’t taper a Ponzi scheme.”

That means their only choice is to debase the US dollar by ever-increasing amounts until, as Mises puts it, the “final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

That’s why I am convinced extreme currency debasement is the inevitable outcome of the debt spiral.

All the rest is noise.

Michael Saylor captured the essence of the situation when he said, “The road to serfdom consists of working exponentially harder to earn a currency that is growing exponentially weaker.”

I believe rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.

The worst of it could go down soon… and it won’t be pretty.

It will result in an enormous wealth transfer from savers and regular people to the parasitic class—politicians, central bankers, and those connected to them.

Countless millions throughout history were wiped out financially—or worse—because they failed to see the correct Big Picture as their governments went bankrupt.

Don’t be one of them.

That’s exactly why I just released an urgent new report with all the details, including what you must do to prepare. It’s called The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now. Click here to download the PDF now.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 09:25

Southwest Plunges After Revenue Guidance Slashed As Troubles Mount 

Southwest Plunges After Revenue Guidance Slashed As Troubles Mount 

Just over two weeks after activist shareholder Elliott Investment Management was revealed to have nearly a $2 billion equity stake in budget airline Southwest, the investment firm’s head, Paul Singer, is already experiencing a turbulent ride. 

Shares of Southwest plunged as much as 10% in premarket trading in New York, with some of those losses reversed as of 0815 ET, following news the airline slashed its guidance for revenue per available seat mile, a commonly used top-line metric also known as “RASM,” for the second quarter. 

Southwest wrote in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it expects a revenue per available seat mile decline of as much as 4.5% in the second quarter, down from a prior estimate of 1.5% to 3.5%. 

“Based on revenue performance to date, the Company now expects second-quarter 2024 RASM to decline in the 4.0 percent to 4.5 percent range compared with its prior expectation of a 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent decline, both on a year-over-year basis,” the airline said.

Southwest explained, “The reduction in the Company’s RASM expectations was driven primarily by complexities in adapting its revenue management to current booking patterns in this dynamic environment.” 

Despite the downward revision in RASM, the airline noted, “The Company continues to expect an all-time quarterly record for operating revenue in the second quarter of 2024.” 

In late April, Southwest shares tumbled after the company reported a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss and lower-than-expected revenue due to delays in Boeing jet deliveries. 

“The recent news from Boeing regarding further aircraft delivery delays presents significant challenges for both 2024 and 2025,” Southwest CEO Bob Jordan wrote in the company’s first-quarter financial results statement. 

Meanwhile, as of early April, Paul Singer has become one of Southwest’s largest shareholders and aims to turn the struggling airline around. However, someone should warn Singer not to elimate the ‘bags fly free’ policy or face a wave of angry passengers. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 09:10

Seattle Mandates $4.99 Fee On Uber Eats ‘To Help Drivers’, Deliveries Crash 45%

Seattle Mandates $4.99 Fee On Uber Eats ‘To Help Drivers’, Deliveries Crash 45%

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Drivers are not helped by wage mandates is Seattle and New York. And customers complain higher prices and cold food.

It’s a perfect trifecta of complaints.

Neither drivers nor customers are happy with misguided politicians attempting to help driver get better pay.

It’s losses all around as Delivery Drivers Got Higher Wages. Now They’re Getting Fewer Orders.

The delivery companies—whose businesses are built on gig workers they don’t employ full- time—say they can only afford to pay so many workers under the two cities’ latest pay standards. The cities want the companies to pay couriers a minimum hourly wage based on the time they spend delivering orders and reward the most efficient workers. New York City now requires that the companies pay couriers at least $19.56 per hour before tips, up from an average of $5.39 per hour before its rules went into effect in December.

Uber Eats’ UBER orders in Seattle fell 45% last quarter from the same period a year earlier after the company imposed a $4.99 fee on each order to cover the city’s new pay requirements. Demand also cooled in New York City, Uber and DoorDash DASH.

Consumers already pay the apps a service fee and delivery fee, in addition to tipping workers. For some, the latest app fees were the last straw.

Seattle-based researcher Ro Singh was hooked on ordering in several times a week until the city adopted its pay measure in January. App prices “became absolutely nuts,” he said, after adding varying delivery fees in addition to tipping. He started picking up the food himself.

“It’s like double the price to order a $20 burrito now” compared with the pickup price, he said. “This is insane.”

Uber Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi said the company has had to cut 25% of the delivery drivers who previously worked for the app in New York City. “So far, regulation has definitely hurt the people that it’s supposed to protect,” Khosrowshahi said last month on a call with analysts.

Shuai Zhang, the owner of Poprice, an Asian street-food restaurant in New York City, says his delivery sales are a third of what they were before the changes. Drivers who once picked up from his restaurant are now asking him for jobs. He hired two of them.

Fewer workers delivering for the apps means it takes longer to pick up orders. Customers are complaining about deliveries arriving cold and soggy, Zhang said. To make up for lost sales, he has started working as a restaurant consultant.

Seattle driver Gary Lardizabal said he makes less money now despite working more hours. Breakfast and afternoon-snack delivery orders have disappeared. Smaller deliveries don’t make sense because of the new $4.99 fee, he said.

Perfect Trifecta of Who Is Unhappy

  • Drivers because they are making less money

  • Restaurants because they are losing business

  • Customers because of slower deliveries, cold food, and higher prices

The city loses too. Seattle collects a sales tax of 3.85 percent.

Seattle vs New York

New York City says the plan is working. The only thing I can come up with is reduced traffic.

Seattle City Council President Sara Nelson is pushing to reverse the new earnings standard after complaints from drivers, restaurants and consumers, though she wants to ensure that workers still make the city’s minimum hourly wage before tips.

What a hoot.

Not having learned anything from this, Nelson still wants to mandate minimum wages. I wonder what miserable failure she will concoct next.

Price Wars at McDonalds, Starbucks, Walmart, Target

Meanwhile, please note A $5 Meal Deal at McDonalds, Price Wars Also at Starbucks, Walmart, Target

Still more signs of consumer exhaustion are evident in tactics by McDonalds, Starbucks, and other chains’ attempts to woo back customers who said no more to rising prices.

Breadsticks at Olive Garden Highlight Financial Strain on America’s Middle Class

In case you missed it, please see my June 20 post, Breadsticks at Olive Garden Highlight Financial Strain on America’s Middle Class

Traffic at Olive Garden is up 3.9 percent but but same store sales are down 1.5 percent. Are people filling up on unlimited breadsticks? Drinking less wine?

Discretionary Spending

Repeating comments I made in the McDonalds post, all of the articles in this post have one thing in common. They are all about discretionary spending.

Consumers are tapped out and that is the first, if not only thing consumers can cut back on.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 08:50

Whirlpool Shares Surge 18% Amid Bosch Takeover Rumors

Whirlpool Shares Surge 18% Amid Bosch Takeover Rumors

Shares of Whirlpool Corp. soared in premarket trading in New York after a Reuters report explained that German appliance and engineering giant Robert Bosch is eyeing a potential takeover bid for the appliance maker. 

Bosch has been talking to potential advisers about the possibility of making an offer for Whirlpool, which has a market capitalization of about $4.8 billion, one of the sources said.

The sources said it was not certain that an offer would be made, and asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. -Reuters

Reuters pointed out that Bosch’s potential acquisition of Whirlpool could significantly strengthen its home appliance division amid increasing competition from Asian rivals. This deal would also allow Bosch, the world’s largest automotive supplier, to diversify its portfolio beyond the automotive industry and into home appliances.

As of Monday’s close, Whirlpool had a market capitalization of $4.75 billion. Sources were unclear about the composition of the deal, and a Bosch spokesperson called the report “market rumors.” 

In markets, Whirlpool shares peaked in May 2021 just north of $250 a share, and since then, have plunged 65% to around the $87 handle on Monday, or about to the lowest levels since the early days of government-enforced lockdowns in the early Covid days.

WHR is up 18% in the pre-market…

Also, Whirlpool’s float is 13% short, or about 7.1 million shares, equating to about 4.8 days to cover. This may suggest the squeezing in premarket trading.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 08:35

Will A Crime Wave In This PA City Shape The Election Outcome?

Will A Crime Wave In This PA City Shape The Election Outcome?

Authored by Tyler Day via RealClearPennsylvania,

Scranton, the Electric City and boyhood home of President Joe Biden, will likely figure in the political headlines throughout the 2024 election season. That’s largely because it’s located in Northeastern Pennsylvania – one of the swingiest areas of arguably the most important swing state. The city received visits from both major party candidates during the 2020 campaign and has already seen a two-day presidential visit in 2024.

A prominent issue for Scranton and its surrounding communities is violent crime. During the first five months of 2024, the city recorded five homicides, far exceeding any annual total in recent memory. During all of 2023, Scranton saw three homicides, and in the years prior, it recorded one to two homicides per year. It wasn’t uncommon for the city to see zero homicides in a year, as it did in 2019.

Scranton residents are not used to this type of carnage so close to home. In March, a young man, Jose Miguel Tatis-Camilo, was shot during an armed robbery of a gas station convenience store; he died a few days later. He was in the wrong place at the wrong time. A few days later, a man was killed in his home during a drug-related robbery. In April, a gang-related beating and shooting took place near a city park that resulted in one dead. Later in April, in a dispute between two siblings, a man took his brother’s life. Finally, in May, an unresponsive male was found in a car; he had been shot following a drug deal gone bad.

Other acts of violence have also unnerved Scrantonians. Car theft has been rampant; one resident was carjacked at gunpoint. The year 2024 got off to a horrible start when Scranton Police Detective Kyle Gilmartin was shot twice in the head during a police investigation of gang-related shootings early on a January morning. Miraculously, the detective survived. Later that month, a juvenile was detained outside of Scranton High School with a firearm; he had planned to shoot a rival gang member. In April, attendees at a Scranton Preparatory School lacrosse game had to be escorted to their vehicles by police following gunshots nearby. In June, Scranton police and S.W.A.T. team members faced gunfire when responding to a domestic incident.

Scranton residents are wondering when the lawlessness will end. County commissioners recently approved sectioning off a wing of the county jail to hold juveniles since there is no more space at juvenile detention facilities.

The crime wave has been eye-opening for many longtime Scranton residents. Until recently, gang issues and shootings were not a concern for most. It’s true that many areas across the United States have seen an uptick in crime since the pandemic, and it is also true that many other small to midsize cities would be envious of Scranton’s relative safety, even now. That’s little consolation, though, for residents now fearful to walk around their own neighborhoods.

It remains to be seen if crime concerns will have an impact on the electorate. National polls consistently show that voters trust Republicans, often by wide margins, to handle crime. Most Scranton area Democrats, who have controlled city and county government for decades, take a more tough on crime and pro-police stance than many of their vocal, far-left counterparts in other areas of the country.

The Scranton area may be critical in races that decide the balance of power in Congress. Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey is, like Biden, a Scranton native. He faces a tough battle for reelection against Republican Dave McCormick.

The area is also home to one of the most competitive U.S. House races, where newcomer Rob Bresnahan is running against longtime Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. Scranton and its surrounding communities are key to Cartwright’s reelection chances. If the general election results in the Scranton area are a few shades of blue lighter than normal in this traditionally Democratic area, it may be enough to put Bresnahan over the top, since the rest of the district is more friendly to the Republican.

The crime concerns could even have an impact on a critical statehouse race. Currently, Democrats hold a one-seat advantage in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The 118th District is one of the top seats Republicans are looking to flip. The 118th, represented by Rep. Jim Haddock, does not include Scranton but does include towns that directly border it. It’s easy to imagine voters there being concerned about violence spilling over into their communities.

The editorial board at one local newspaper isn’t having any of this, though. In its May 26, 2024, edition, the paper urged readers: “Don’t buy the rhetoric; crime is down across the board.” The editorial declares that public concerns about crime are “overblown,” magnified by “partisan rhetoric.” The paper assures Scrantonians that “our neighborhoods are safer than they have been in more than a decade.”

Come November, we’ll find out whether the paper or the public is right about crime in Scranton. And that verdict may well have ramifications beyond Pennsylvania’s sixth-largest city.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 07:45

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas Says Tesla “May Hold Important Cards” In The Next AI Trade

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas Says Tesla “May Hold Important Cards” In The Next AI Trade

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas suggests that Tesla could be poised for the powering up America theme with its solar energy and storage business. This comes as artificial intelligence data centers are being constructed across the country, and once completed, demand a whole heck of a lot more power than traditional data centers, which means power grids must be upgraded to handle the new load capacity. 

“At first glance, the rapid growth in AI and its impact on electricity demand may not seem to have relevance to Tesla or the broader auto industry,” Jonas wrote in a note to clients on Monday. 

Titled “Tesla Energy Storage: Can GenAI Electrify This $130bn Business?” Jonas continued, “We recently published an analysis showing how US data center power usage may be equivalent to the power used by 150 million electric cars by 2030; the forecasted increase in US data center power from 2023 through 2027 is the electrical energy equivalent to adding 59 million EVs to US roads, or a 21% increase in total vehicles in service.”

The analyst then describes how Tesla’s energy generation (solar) and storage (Powerwall/Megapack) “may hold some important cards in the evolution of the US grid as energy usage of compute/data grows.” 

Jonas seems to embrace ‘The Next AI Trade,’ a theme we introduced to our pro subscribers in early April. We outlined how the AI revolution will drive a significant increase in electricity demand from AI data centers, reshoring trends, and other electrification trends, necessitating an upgrade of the nation’s grid. 

Here are some key points from Jonas’ note, which explains Tesla Energy will play a critical part in upgrading the nation’s power grid for the AI revolution, which justifies a $310 price target:

Tesla Energy Valuation and Forecasts:

  • Tesla Energy is valued at $36 per share, contributing significantly to Tesla’s overall market cap.

  • Revenue projections for Tesla Energy in FY24 are over $7 billion, with margins expected to surpass those of Tesla’s auto business by next year.

  • EPS contributions from Tesla Energy are estimated to reach $0.50 by 2026 and over $1 by 2030.

Impact of AI on Energy Demand:

  • AI acceleration is expected to spur a significant increase in energy demand, likened to the power usage of 150 million electric cars by 2030.

  • Data center power usage is projected to increase substantially, equating to the energy addition of millions of EVs on US roads. 

Tesla’s Energy Products: Powerwall:

  • A 13.5 kWh lithium-ion battery pack for residential use, capable of storing solar or grid energy and providing power during outages. Solar Panels and Solar Roof:

  • Solar solutions for residential customers, with the Solar Roof integrating solar tiles directly into the roof structure.

  • Megapack: A large-scale battery storage solution for commercial and utility use, designed for easy installation and high energy density.

Tesla Energy’s Strategic Advantages:

  • Tesla’s capability in distributed energy generation (solar) and storage positions it to benefit from increasing energy demands driven by AI and data centers.

  • Innovations and scale in the energy storage market make Tesla a disruptive force against incumbent players.

Case Studies and Global Deployments:

  • Various case studies highlight Tesla Energy’s successful deployments, such as emergency backup systems for railways, energy savings for breweries, and large-scale renewable energy storage projects.

  • Tesla’s global footprint includes numerous installations across residential, commercial, and utility sectors.

Future Prospects and Challenges:

  • The report outlines a bull, base, and bear case for Tesla Energy, with varying revenue growth and margin expectations.

  • The storage business is expected to grow at a faster rate than the solar business, with significant contributions to Tesla’s overall profitability by 2030.

  • Tesla faces competition from other storage and solar companies but is positioned well due to its innovative products and integrated business model.

Regulatory and Market Dynamics:

  • Federal and state-level incentives, such as tax credits and rebates, support the adoption of Tesla’s energy products.
  • Changes in policies, like California’s net metering adjustments, further incentivize the use of energy storage paired with solar installations.

Strategic Vision and Market Position:

  • Tesla aims to scale its production capabilities rapidly, with ambitious growth targets for energy deployments.
  • The company’s integrated approach and focus on innovation are expected to drive substantial growth in the energy sector, positioning Tesla as a leader in the clean tech and energy storage market.

Here’s what X users are saying about Jonas’ note, plus their thoughts on Tesla Energy:

In markets, Tesla shares have been building a multi-year base. 

Cathie Wood, head of Ark Investment Management, spoke with CNBC the other day about Tesla’s technical analysis and explained, “Longer the base, the bigger the breakout.” 

However, we might want to remind everyone that breakouts can occur in either direction… 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 07:20

German Police Responding To Birthday Party Group Chanting “Foreigners Out” Surprised By What They Find

German Police Responding To Birthday Party Group Chanting “Foreigners Out” Surprised By What They Find

By Dénes Albert of Rmx.news

Germany has featured more and more incidents involving young people charting, “Foreigners out, Germany for the Germans,” over the beat of the hit electronic song “L’amour toujours” by Gigi D’Agostino. Now, police are being deployed in “operations” to respond to such instances. This time, police arrived at a birthday party in Cochem on the Moselle River, in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, only to be surprised when they learned who was singing the song.

Once on the scene, officers learned that everyone calling for foreigners to leave Germany were actually foreigners.

“What is remarkable in this context is that the women were all non-German nationals and only one woman had any significant knowledge of German,” said the Mayen police department. According to Bild, all the people present only spoke Bulgarian, Romanian and Ukrainian.

The police determined that they were singing the song due to its spread on TikTok and other social media platforms. They were allegedly unaware that those singing the song face criminal prosecution, according to police. However, in similar cases, prosecutors have already dropped such cases, saying they did not rise to the level of criminal prosecution. Top politicians in Germany have called for those singing the song to face the “maximum penalty.”

Police still opened an investigation into “incitement of hatred.”

The first time the “Foreigners out” chant was sung was at a 2023 harvest festival in Bergholz, Germany. Since then, a number of high-profile incidents involving people singing the song have sprung up across Germany, most notably a video from the island of Sylt, which was released in May.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded at the time that “such slogans are disgusting. They are unacceptable.”

On Wednesday, during the European Football Championship match between Hungary and Germany, Hungarian fans chanted the song in Stuttgart. It is unclear if a criminal investigation has been opened due to this instance.

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 06/26/2024 – 06:55