Authored by Frank Feng via The Epoch Times,

The White House criticized Republican lawmakers and the Trump administration on Wednesday, claiming they should be to blame for the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.

The criticism came on the same day as former President Donald Trump visited the derailment site, during which he called out the Biden administration for its slow response.

“Congressional Republicans and former Trump administration officials owe East Palestine an apology for selling them out to rail industry lobbyists when they dismantled Obama-Biden rail safety protections as well as EPA powers to rapidly contain spills,” said Andrew Bates, a deputy White House press secretary, according to a statement.

He added, “Congressional Republicans laid the groundwork for the Trump Administration to tear up requirements for more effective train brakes, and last year most House Republicans wanted to defund our ability to protect drinking water.”

Bates challenged GOP lawmakers to set things right. He also tweeted out a 2021 letter signed by 20 GOP senators, asking the Federal Railroad Administration to increase the use of automated track inspections instead of human inspections.

“There is only one way they can prove that they are finally disowning their long history of giveaways to rail industry management at the expense of communities like East Palestine: work across the aisle with us to put Obama-Biden protections back in place and go further, including with higher fines for rail pollution and properly equipping the EPA,” Bates said.

However, National Transportation Safety Board Chair Jennifer Homendy, said last week on Twitter that the brake regulation would not have prevented the Ohio derailment, since it would have applied to “high-hazard flammable trains” (HHFT) transporting 20 or more loaded tank cars. She noted that the train derailed in Ohio was an HHFT but a “mixed freight train.”

The ECP braking rule would’ve applied ONLY to HIGH HAZARD FLAMMABLE TRAINS. The train that derailed in East Palestine was a MIXED FREIGHT TRAIN containing only 3 placarded Class 3 flammable liquids cars. pic.twitter.com/ReAFDSdsn7

— Jennifer Homendy (@JenniferHomendy) February 17, 2023

The train derailed in East Palestine on Feb. 3, while traveling from Madison, Illinois, to Conway, Pennsylvania. The train was carrying a variety of products, including highly toxic vinyl chloride and other hazardous materials.

To avoid a potential explosion, Norfolk Southern, the company whose train derailed, conducted a “controlled release” of the chemicals on Feb. 6, which involved burning the chemicals and releasing fumes into the air.

Many local residents in East Palestine remain concerned about local air and water quality.

Republicans

Trump met with East Palestine Mayor Trent Conaway on Wednesday, a visit accompanied by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio).

The former president criticized the Biden administration, noting that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced to send a team to East Palestine only after announced his visit.

“When I announced that I was coming, they changed their tune,” Trump said, adding that his visit “opened up the dam” for the Biden administration to act.

“What this community needs now are not excuses and all of the other things you’ve been hearing, but answers and results, and that’s what I think you’re going to see,” he added.

Several Republicans took to Twitter to applaud Trump for deciding to visit East Palestine.

“Was great to have the president in East Palestine today,” Vance wrote.

“We need to keep working to get the residents the help they need. Kudos to the mayor, the fire chief, and other local officials for performing well under impossible conditions.”

Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) thanked Trump for “continuing to show what America First looks like.”

“President Trump visits the people of East Palestine, Ohio and brings them water & supplies while Joe Biden only cares about pushing more war and US money in Ukraine,” she wrote.

Some Republicans have directed their criticism at Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who is scheduled to visit East Palestine on Thursday.

“19 DAYS have passed since the catastrophic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. 19 DAYS,” Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) wrote on Twitter on Feb. 22. “In the meantime, Joe Biden jets off to Europe and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg just now gets around to planning a visit to the crash site.”

Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.) wrote on Twitter that Buttigieg is “finally” visiting East Palestine.

“Once again, the Biden administration’s response to yet ANOTHER crisis is too little, too late,” Cline wrote. 

Exactly two years after a catastrophic, borderline failed 7Y auction spiked yields across the curve in what was at the time the first harbinger of the coming inflationary wave, moments ago we had another 7Y auction that while not nearly as ugly, was anything but good.

The high yield of 4.062% was not just a whopping 55bps higher than the 3.517% from January, but was also the highest on record, since the 7Y maturity was introduced in early 2009; by comparison the record low for the 7Y was 0.446% from July 2020; even more ominously, the auction tailed the When Issued 4.047% by 1.5bps, which was the 4th tailing auction in the last five.

The bid to cover dropped from last month’s 2.691, to 2.490 which was below the six-auction average of 2.52.

The internals were also disappointing, with Indirects awarded 65.5%, down sharply from last month’s 77.1% and below the recent average of 68.1%; and with Directs taking down 20.8%, or the most since October, Dealers were left holding 13.7% of the auction, on of the lowest Dealers awards on record.

Overall, while not quite as ugly as the Feb 2021 7Y disaster, today’s auction was the latest in a series of lousy coupon sales which saw lousy demand and even worse market digestion; the fact that this was the last coupon auction until the second week of March adds to the concern that demand in the primary market may be slipping fast now that the inflation genie is once again out of the bottle.

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Retail sales surged in January, creating the impression that the economy is humming along nicely. After all, there can’t be a problem if consumers are out there consuming, right?

But a lot of people are ignoring a key question: how are people paying for this shopping spree?

As it turns out, they’re putting a lot of this spending on credit cards.

Even with a big 1.8% decline in retail sales in December, revolving credit, primarily reflecting credit card debt, grew by another $7.2 billion that month, a 7.3% increase.

To put the numbers into perspective, the annual increase in 2019, prior to the pandemic, was 3.6%. It’s pretty clear that Americans are still heavily relying on credit cards to make ends meet.

Meanwhile, household debt rose by $394 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. It was the largest quarter-on-quarter increase in household debt in two decades. Debt balances have risen $2.7 higher than they were at the beginning of the pandemic.

Clearly, this isn’t a sign of a healthy economy. Americans are spending more on everything thanks to rampant price inflation that doesn’t appear to be waning, and they’re relying on credit cards to do it. Saving has plunged. This isn’t a sound economic foundation, and it isn’t even sustainable. Credit cards have a nasty thing called a limit. And with credit card interest rates at record-high levels, people will reach those limits pretty quickly.

I ran across something the other day that provides an even more striking example of just how reliant the US economy is on debt.

A company called the Wisconsin Cheeseman sells gift packs of cheese, candies and other treats. And you can buy the gifts on their in-house credit plan.

Let this sink in for a moment. A primary pitch from a gift company is that you can buy on credit.

The annual percentage rate will run you a modest 5.75% to a hefty 25.99% depending on the state. (Most states are currently above 20%. But don’t worry. Your payments can be as low as $10 a month.) Just don’t think about the fact that you’ll probably be paying for this cheese for years to come.

There are other companies facilitating borrowing this doesn’t even show up in the official debt figures.

The use of BNLP services such as Affirm, Afterpay and Klarna has exploded in the last couple of years. These services allow consumers to pay off purchases through installment payments, often interest-free. In a December 2021 report, Cardify CEO Derrick Fung said buy now, pay later has rapidly become more mainstream.

“The consumer over the last 12 months has become more compulsive and BNPL products are the result of us being locked up for too long and wanting more instant gratification,” he said.

Buy now, pay later is a convenient way to spread out spending, but there is a dark side. It encourages consumers to spend more. Nearly 46% of those polled said they would spend less if BNPL wasn’t an option.

The rise of buy now pay later (BNPL) is another sign of a deeply dysfunctional economy. Americans are piling up millions of dollars of additional debt using BNPL on top of their credit cards.

So, while the mainstream pundits tell you the economy is strong, they are looking at a facade. It’s a house of cards. And eventually, it will collapse.

American consumers continue to “support the economy” by spending money today despite rising prices. But they’re borrowing to do it. Tomorrow is fast approaching. And with it depleted savings, higher interest rates, and looming credit card limits. This is simply not a sustainable trajectory, no matter how the mainstream press tries to spin it.

The National Weather Service issued the first blizzard warning for the mountains of Los Angeles in over three decades as a powerful winter storm is set to dump feet of snow in higher elevations. 

The NWS office in Los Angeles warned about a dangerous winter storm across the mountains of Los Angeles, Ventura, and Santa Barbara counties. The agency said there would be “extremely dangerous mountain conditions.” 

• Blizzard conditions above 8000 feet. Additional snow accumulations of 38 to 73 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
• Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strong winds could cause tree damage. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 40 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

NWS’ map of weather warnings shows dangerous conditions across much of the Golden State. 

FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said, “Your eyes are not deceiving you … All the way down in Southern California, that orange box is a Blizzard Warning that’s in effect for Friday morning until 4 p.m. on Saturday afternoon.”

Areas above 3,000 to 4,000 feet are under a blizzard warning and will see heavy snow Friday and Saturday. 

Accumulating snow is expected in elevations of less than 2,500 feet but only between one and six inches. Areas along the coast and valleys could see nearly five inches of rain. 

Maybe Punxsutawney Phil was right earlier this month: six more weeks of winter. Meanwhile, winter weather has been absent on the East Coast this season. In Washington, D.C., temperatures are expected to reach nearly 80 degrees Fahrenheit today. 

Authored by Jim Colquitt via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Don’t be fooled. Two important pieces of data came out this week that should be paid close attention to.

On February 16th, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February was released.  According to MarketWatch, the median estimate called for a decline of -7.8.  The actual result was a decline -24.3.

The official press release noted the following:

“The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of -8.9 last month to -24.3 this month, its sixth consecutive negative reading and lowest reading since May 2020.” 

You might wonder, “What is the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and why does it matter to me?”

The Philly Fed

What is it?

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (official name) is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968.

Why does it matter? 

Here is a good synopsis provided by TheStreet.com.

The survey, conducted each month since May 1968, is the oldest among the 12 Fed banks monitoring regional manufacturing activities and is often viewed as accurately reflecting the pace of growth in manufacturing nationally. The survey’s influence as a leading economic indicator has pushed other regional banks to publish their own polls for their districts. 

A reading greater than zero suggests expansion in manufacturing, while a reading of less than zero indicates contraction.  Because the data span more than 50 years, the index reliably provides an early indication of whether the economy might be slipping into recession. The Philadelphia Fed asserts that its survey leads other indicators by weeks and correlates strongly with lagging indicators such as employment and industrial production.

Here is a chart of each monthly reading since the inception of the index in 1968. The most recent reading was a decline of -24.3, denoted by a horizontal black dashed line on the chart below.  Note: the vertical red shaded areas denote recessionary periods in the US.

A few interesting observations from this chart and the most recent reading in particular.

• In six of the eight recessions since the 1960’s, when the index fell to -24.3, or lower, the US economy was already in a recession.

• In the two instances where this was not the case, September ’79 & January ’01, the US economy entered a recession 4-months and 2-months later, respectively. 

Some will argue that the US economy has transitioned more towards a “service-based” economy vs. a “manufacturing-based” economy over the last several decades, and while that is a true statement, McKinsey & Company noted the following in August ’22:

“US manufacturing may be poised for an overhaul and a rebound, with a potentially significant impact on the nation’s overall economy. In the United States, manufacturing accounts for $2.3 trillion in GDP, employs 12 million people, and supports hundreds of local economies. Although that represents just 11 percent of US GDP and 8 percent of direct employment, the sector makes a disproportionate economic contribution, including 20 percent of the nation’s capital investment, 35 percent of productivity growth, 60 percent of exports, and 70 percent of business R&D spending.”

So, yes, the US has moved more towards a “service-based” economy over the last 40+ years, yet, since “peak manufacturing” in 1979, we’ve had six recessions where the two bullet points above hold true.  So, this time has to be completely different than history, or we should expect the US economy to enter a recession in the future.

Conference Board LEI

This week’s second piece of important data was The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), released on February 17th. 

As the name would imply, this index looks at 10 different components that The Conference Board believes are predictive, or “leading”, with respect to the direction of the US economy.

The LEI fell by -0.3% in January, following a decline of -0.8% in December. 

The Conference Board made the following observations in their press release:

“The LEI is now down 3.6% over the six-month period between July 2022 and January 2023 – a steeper rate of decline than its 2.4% contraction over the previous six-month period (January – July 2022).”

Further, they note:

“The US LEI remained on a downward trajectory, but its rate of decline moderated slightly in January,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “Among the leading indicators, deteriorating manufacturing new orders, consumers’ expectations of business conditions, and credit conditions more than offset strengths in labor markets and stock prices to drive the index lower in the month. The contribution of the yield spread component of the LEI also turned negative in the last two months, which is often a signal of recession to come. While the LEI continues to signal recession in the near term, indicators related to the labor market—including employment and personal income—remain robust so far. Nonetheless, The Conference Board still expects high inflation, rising interest rates, and contracting consumer spending to tip the US economy into recession in 2023.”

The Conference Board provides the following chart with each release.  Note where the current reading “Jan ‘23” is relative to the “Recession signal” in red.

Don’t Be Fooled

The image below has made the rounds many times on the Internet, and I think it fairly represents what we see in the various “Stages of a Bubble”.  While the exact shape of red line will never be exactly the same, I think the creator of this chart has done a good job capturing the human emotion/sentiment associated with each of the various stages of a bubble.

If we were to translate this image to stock market today (as represented by the S&P 500 on a monthly basis), I don’t think it would be stretch to suggest that the market highs of early 2022 might align well with the “New Paradigm”!!! peak on the chart above. 

Further, there has been a shift of late in the narrative as it pertains to the US economy and where we might be heading as we’ve gone from a “hard landing” (i.e., a difficult, prolonged recession), to a “soft landing” (i.e., we have a recession, but it won’t be that bad), and now a “no landing” (i.e., we avoid a recession altogether).

Don’t be fooled. This is classic “Return to Normal” behavior! 

If we take the chart above and overlay the S&P 500 monthly chart on top of it, here is what we get.  It’s not a perfect one-for-one match but I think it’s close enough to make the point. 

As I said in “Reading the FOMC Tea Leaves” and in “Layoffs…What Are They Telling Us?”, the goal isn’t to spark fear or panic, instead, my desire is to prepare you for what may be coming and to remind you that recessions, and the associated market downturn, often present generational buying opportunities assuming you have the capital available to do it.

Until next time…

This week the forewoman in the Georgia grand jury inquiry into President Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election made clear during several media interviews that the former president and his associates faced an absolutely biased jury.

In a series of media interviews, 30-year-old Atlanta-area resident, Emily Kohrs, who served as the forewoman of the special grand jury for eight months, was giddy with excitement over the ‘not short’ list of indictment recommendations that would be handed down, and that there would be no “plot twist” when the public finally gets to see their findings – particularly regarding “the big name that everyone keeps asking me about” (Trump), about which she said “I don’t think you will be shocked.”

Emily khors is the forewoman of the Trump grand jury and she’s an absolute lunatic. She must think she’s the lead role in her head. pic.twitter.com/67DDzPmN83

— Stephan (@itoldyaso88) February 22, 2023

This is the idiot grand jury forewoman from GA who has been on the news baiting viewers with an upcoming Trump indictment. She said there were multiple recommendations with “no surprises.” pic.twitter.com/B0qAqD36xZ

— SweetPeaBelle (@SweetPeaBell326) February 22, 2023

Even leftist media called out the overt bias, with CNN‘s Anderson Cooper and Elie Honig wondering if Kohrs’ media blitz was “responsible.”

“First of all, why this person is talking on TV, I do not understand. Because, she’s clearly enjoying herself, but, I mean, is this responsible? She was the foreperson of this grand jury,” said Cooper.

“No. It’s a prosecutor’s nightmare,” replied Honig. “Mark my words, Donald Trump’s team is going to make a motion if there’s an indictment to dismiss that indictment based on grand jury impropriety. She’s not supposed to be talking about anything, really. But she’s really not supposed to be talking about the deliberations.“

And that’s exactly what Trump’s lawyers pounced on following the media junket.

“We’re just considering everything,” said Trump lawyer, Drew Findling, in response – adding that the Georgia inquiry had been “poisoned” by Kohrs’ appearances.

“If, let’s say, there is a recommendation to go to a grand jury,” said Findling. “all potential grand juries in this part of the country that listen to a radio, read a newspaper, watch TV, go online, look at the news alerts on their phone, are now reading about the deliberations or what could be interpreted as the deliberations of that grand jury.”

News: CBS News has learned that lawyers close to several GOP witnesses in Fulton Co. investigation are preparing to move to quash any possible indictments by DA based on the public statements by the forewoman of the special grand jury, per two people familiar with the discussions

— Robert Costa (@costareports) February 22, 2023

Trump himself slammed Kohrs on Truth Social Wednesday, for “doing a Media Tour revealing, incredibly, the Grand Jury’s inner workings & thoughts.”

“If I am the prosecutor, I am not sure that I want this media tour taking place because I’m confident that Donald Trump’s lawyers are going to use this,” the NYT‘s Maggie Haberman told CNN on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Washington Times‘ Charlie Hurt told Tucker Carlson on Wednesday spoke to the dangers of politicized juries:

“It’s easy to make fun of her… but think about this; if this was an actually serious case, and if you had actual serious adult prosecutors prosecuting a serious case, and you are the person that was facing life in jail. And you looked up at the jury box and you saw this lunatic sitting in the jury box.

These people make a mockery of everything we stand for, and I would argue in a lot of ways, even more importantly than voting in this country, is the concept of a jury of your peers. You can’t be railroaded by a bunch of people who aren’t like you.”

Jury venue shopping, which is exactly what is going on here, voids the rule of law for anyone in the country who’s not a left-wing nutjob. All you have to do to indict and convict a Republican in this country is empanel a BlueAnon jury in a blue city. Laws don’t matter there. https://t.co/tSChIC2LJa

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) February 22, 2023

Oh, and she also appears to be a practicing witch;

BREAKING: The Pinterest of that Trump Grand Juror has been found

And it is worse than you thought, lads

h/t @SomeB1tchIKnow pic.twitter.com/W0io4jHyi4

— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) February 22, 2023

pic.twitter.com/CYcqag1jvu

— Randy Lenz (@Frightful_Hog) February 22, 2023

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

NATO has been criticised for a bizarre tweet comparing the Ukraine conflict to Harry Potter and Star Wars.

The tweet sent via NATO’s official Twitter account is a quote claimed to be from a soldier in the Ukrainian army.

It reads, “This war will shape the continent. It will set rules and draw frontiers. Books will be written and studies done on the reality we face today. We are Harry Potter and William Wallace, the Na’vi and Han Solo. We’re escaping from Shawshank and blowing up the Death Star. We are fighting with the Harkonnens and challenging Thanos. Ukraine is hosting one of the great epics of this century.”

🗣️ Ukraine is hosting one of the great epics of this century

❝We are Harry Potter and William Wallace, the Na’vi and Han Solo. We’re escaping from Shawshank and blowing up the Death Star. We are fighting with the Harkonnens and challenging Thanos.❞

[9/10] pic.twitter.com/HBji5RoWws

— NATO (@NATO) February 23, 2023

Critics pointed out that it’s incredibly frivolous to highlight a comparison of a war to nerd fiction.

They should keep this rolling… “We are the fat kid in Charlie & The Chocolate Factory trying to shove as many sweets in our mouth as possible. We are the kids in Super Bad trying to buy booze with the McLovin fake id…. “

— AJ (@iamnotshouting) February 23, 2023

I thought @NATO was a serious organization.

— Daniel Adamscheck (@adamscheck) February 23, 2023

Ukringe

— Christian Schneider (@cschneido) February 23, 2023

So it’s a movie?

— Doki the Splooter (@zomgwtfbbqfyi) February 23, 2023

God, this is so vile and embarrassing.

— Dosadian (@Dosadian) February 23, 2023

This is cringe.
Its insulting that you think you can connect more with young people by writing like this.

— That Dastardly Villain, Chus (@Asturianix98) February 23, 2023

Whoever thought this tweet was a good idea should strongly reconsider.

— Robert™ • Vorläufig dauerhaft™ 📸🏳️‍🌈 (@atheistsplained) February 23, 2023

SO STUNNING AND BRAVE!!!! pic.twitter.com/HU34Jtch6O

— KlausRockefella🎩 (@RockefellaK) February 23, 2023

They really compared themselves to Harry Potter😂😂😂

— MOST Biased (@MOST_Biased) February 23, 2023

I might actually root for Russia after this level of cringe.

— Old Greb (@MbGerblick) February 23, 2023

Super cool you got a Reddit moderator to run this account.

— Bobby Batteries (@BobbyBatteries) February 23, 2023

I’m trying my best to support Ukraine and then you go and post this.

— v. Stormberg (@VanStormberg) February 23, 2023

Soyjak propaganda

— r0pchain (@r0pchain) February 23, 2023

War is hell. Don’t glorify hell.

— Ultra Derek (@ultradereks) February 23, 2023

No. You’re throwing the male population of Ukraine into the meat grinder to support a massive money laundering scam. It’s evil.

— Dan 🇬🇧 (@Kingbingo_) February 23, 2023

Comparing a war that has already >100k deaths on all sides to science fiction is a little out of taste don’t you think.

— Sebastian Silva (@sxtreme01) February 23, 2023

Change in the training got you searching for the thin line between entertainment and war.

— TheGuillotineWhisperer (@GuilWhisperer) February 23, 2023

This is one of the worst things I’ve ever read

— Hina (@Hinakala1) February 23, 2023

*  *  *

Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

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Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) prepare to gather in Switzerland next week to negotiate final terms of an accord that will give the WHO centralized authority over U.S. policy in the case of a pandemic, Republican senators are pushing back with an effort to reinforce congressional power to authorize treaties.

The draft accord, which would be “legally binding” on all 194 member nations, gives the WHO the authority to declare pandemics and submits member countries to “the central role of the WHO as the directing and coordinating authority on international health work,” in areas like lockdowns, treatments, medical supply chains, surveillance, and “disinformation and false news,” once a pandemic is declared.

Seventeen U.S. senators, led by Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), introduced the “No WHO Pandemic Preparedness Treaty Without Senate Approval Act” on Feb 15, which states that the pandemic accord must be deemed a treaty, thus requiring the consent of a supermajority of the Senate, which is two-thirds, or 67 senators. The legislation comes as the WHO gears up to present what it calls the “zero draft” of the accord, negotiated with the help of U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, to all member nations on Feb. 27 to agree final terms.

Other sponsors of the bill included Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), and Katie Britt (R-Ala.).

“The WHO, along with our federal health agencies, failed miserably in their response to COVID-19,” Sen. Johnson stated. “This failure should not be rewarded with a new international treaty that would increase the WHO’s power at the expense of American sovereignty.”

But some doubt this bill, even if approved, will stop the WHO accord from going into effect once President Joe Biden signs it.

“With all due respect to the sponsoring senators, that will not do the trick,” Francis Boyle, professor of international law at Illinois University, told The Epoch Times. The reason, he said, is that the WHO accord is drafted specifically to circumvent the Senate-approval process, and Congress instead should immediately withhold its yearly contributions to the WHO and take the United States out of the organization.

Currently, the United States is the largest contributor to the WHO’s $6.72 billion budget, of which $1.25 billion is for “health emergencies.” The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is the second largest donor to the WHO, contributing 9 percent of its budget in 2021; China is the third.

Will Biden Need Senate Approval for WHO Accord?

It remains unclear if the Biden administration will need Senate approval for the WHO accord to go into effect. The accord itself states that it will become effective and legally binding on member states “provisionally,” as soon as it is signed and before any national legislatures approve it.

“The Biden administration can indicate that it is provisionally bringing this treaty into force upon the mere signature of the treaty,” Boyle said. “Hence, it will come into force here in the United States provisionally until the Senate decides whether or not it is going to give its advice and consent to the treaty. I personally know of no other U.S. treaty that provides for its provisional application pending the U.S. Senate giving its advice and consent to the treaty.”

Read more here…

One month after the first Q4 GDP estimate surprised to the upside, coming in at 2.9% vs expectations of a 2.6% number, moments ago things gradually reverted to normalcy for a Biden admin that has seen its fair share of grossly manipulated economic data, when the BEA reported in its 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP that the economy actually grew almost as expected one month ago, revising the GDP print to a 2.7% (2.68% to be precise) increase from 2.9%.

The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP reflected increases in inventory investment, consumer spending, business investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in housing investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Turning to the revisions from the first estimate, real GDP was revised down 0.2% from the “advance” estimate and reflected a sharp downward revision to consumer spending (both goods and services) that was partly offset by an upward revision to business investment.

Specifically, this is how the revisions affected the 2.7% GDP bottom line:

• Personal consumption was revised from 1.42% to just 0.93%, as the spending spree that supposedly defined the end of 2022 fizzled.
• Fixed Investment offset much of this, however, with the original GDP deduction of -1.20% declining to just -0.81%
• The Change in Private Inventories was effectively flat, or 1.47% vs 1.46% in the initial estimate
• Net exports were a smaller contributor to GDP, adding 0.46% vs the 0.56% initial estimate
• Government added 0.63%, in line with the 0.64% print initially.

As a reminder, with the change in private Inventories set to tumble as consumers save even more now that the Covid excess stimies have run out (and thus spend less), this means that Q1 GDP will come in far cooler than this print.

The BEA also reported that as a result of recent revisions, real disposable personal income (DPI)— personal  income adjusted for taxes and inflation—increased 4.8% in the fourth quarter after increasing 3.2% in the third quarter. Current-dollar DPI increased 8.6% in the fourth quarter, following an increase of 7.7% (revised). The increase in current-dollar DPI for the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts. On the other hand, personal saving as a percentage of DPI was 3.9% in the fourth quarter, compared with 3.2% (revised) in the third quarter.

Yet while GDP was revised lower, as the BEA finally admitted that the US consumer was getting tapped out, the market generally ignored the aged data as we have much more granular monthly updates; however what did spook futures was the BEA’s sharp upward revision to the GDP Price Index and Core PCE, which unexpectedly came in red hot:

• GDP Price Index 3.9% vs 3.5% in the first estimate, and well above the 3.5% consensus estimate.
• Core PCE Q/Q up 4.3% vs 3.9% in the first estimate, and also well above the 3.9% consensus estimate.

Despite the upward revision, the trend remains a declining one, even if the slope is somewhat shallower: as the BEA also notes, GDP prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 3.6% in the fourth quarter after increasing 4.8% in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 4.1% after increasing 5.0%.

In kneejerk response, emini futures slid from session highs hit just before the GDP print by some 10 points as traders were spooked by the hotter core PCE print, although they promptly rebounded remembering that this data is quite stale and that tomorrow we will get a more timely update for Personal Income, Spending and PCE Deflator for January, and which will likely shows continued disinflation.

The Biden administration says it has proof that China is strongly considering supplying Russia with lethal aid amid the war in Ukraine and that it may release this intelligence to the public. 

“The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, U.S. officials said,” The Wall Street Journal reports.

The details continue: “The discussions on public disclosure come ahead of Friday’s United Nations Security Council meeting marking one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. It follows a number of closed-door appeals to China—coordinated among North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies—that culminated in a formal warning delivered over the weekend in Munich to Wang Yi, China’s senior foreign-policy official, by a number of Western officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly.”

In follow-up, Blinken told CBS News in a weekend interview the US has been “concerned” over potential Chinese military aid to Moscow. “We’ve been concerned from day one about that possibility,” he had told “Face the Nation”.

As for the types of defense aid, he said somewhat ambiguously, “There’s a whole gamut of things that — that fit in that category, everything from ammunition to the weapons themselves.” 

While the sources who spoke to the Journal said it’s their belief that no final decision has been made, they say that intelligence – which is also possessed by Western allies – shows there’s been a shift in thinking.

“Beijing had previously been cautious to confine its support to financial assistance and oil purchases, the officials said, but that stance now appears to be shifting, according to the latest intelligence assessments,” WSJ continues.

A source identified only as a senior Western official described that “Until now… there has been a certain amount of ambiguity about what practical help China might give Russia.” But at this point US intelligence has picked up on evidence that it’s “much less ambiguous.”

But, the entirety of WSJ’s reporting is itself ambiguous, given that we’re told the Chinese are mulling action but haven’t made a final decision, and that merely the US is aware of their thinking. In reality the statements from US officials serve as a warning to Beijing, aired in the pages of the Journal.