Summary

• Iran struck a fully-laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in a Dubai port

• Iran rejects ‘excessive, illogical’ US demands while Trump mentions ‘progress’ with a ‘more reasonable regime’. Trump again threatens to destroy Iran energy sites and Kharg Island. Hundreds of US Special Forces arrive in region.

• White House seriously considering ground operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile but also wants Tehran to negotiate handing it over willingly. Bessent: US will ‘retake’ Hormuz Strait ‘over time’.

• Bazan oil refinery in Israel’s northern city of Haifa is on fire after a second apparent Iranian missile strike of the war. Trump says US response ‘coming shortly’.

• Iran accuses Israel of more ‘false flags’ – after Kuwait water desalination plant hit.

*  *  *

Iran Strikes Fully-Laden Kuwaiti Crude Carrier

After two weeks of ‘calm’, the Kuwaiti crude carrier Al-Salmi was attacked by Iran while in Dubai Port, Kuwait Petroleum Corp. said in a statement.

The tanker was fully-laden.

The attack resulted in damage to hull, outbreak of fire on board.

Emergency teams were mobilized and working to contain the situation.

The organization confirmed that there were no human casualties as a result of the incident.

The incident may include potential oil spill in surrounding waters.

Kuwaiti residents were issued an “extreme level” threat alert.

Oil prices immediately jumped higher on the report…

*  *  *

Trump & Rubio Latest: Response to Haifa Refinery Attack Coming ‘Shortly’

There continues to be a situation where Washington is proclaiming successes in meeting all military objectives in Iran, and yet Tehran is still refusing all alleged US initiatives at direct talks toward some kind of ceasefire. A Monday morning post from the State Department laid out the following words of Secretary Rubio, who at one point stated: “We always prefer to settle things through diplomacy. But we also have to be prepared for the fact that effort might fail. We are dealing with a 47-year-old regime that still has a lot of people involved in it who aren’t necessarily big fans of diplomacy or peace.”

SECRETARY RUBIO: Here are the clear objectives of the operation. You should write them down:
 
1. The destruction of Iran’s air force
2. The destruction of their navy
3. The severe diminishing of their missile launching capability
4. The destruction of their factories
🎯 pic.twitter.com/SrqCtPLlZB

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 30, 2026

President Trump has meanwhile suggested a major US response is coming after Israel’s Bazan oil refinery in Haifa was attacked by the Iranians. A huge blaze has engulfed the vital energy complex. According to a NY Post interview:

President Trump on Monday put Iran and the speaker of the Islamic Republic’s parliament on notice after Tehran attacked Israel’s biggest oil refinery and told The Post his response is coming “shortly.”

Iran escalated its attack on infrastructure by striking a water and electrical plant in Kuwait, and an oil refinery was set ablaze in the northern Israeli city of Haifa after the Iranian missile attack. Asked for his response on the strike, he told The Post: “You’ll see shortly.”

As for the man believed to be running the day-to-day of Iran’s government, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Trump said “We’re gonna find out” if Washington can work with him. “I’ll let you know that in about a week,” Trump stated.

The IRGC is meanwhile touting that it is targeting “American-Israeli command centers, drone hangars, and pilot hideouts in new missile strikes on their military installations in the region” – per Press TV.

Bessent: We Will Retake Hormuz ‘Over Time’

As of last week Rubio was still giving a timeline of at least 2-4 more weeks of Iranian operations. On Monday CBS is reporting that hundreds of special forces, including Navy SEALS and Army Rangers, are now positioned in the Mideast region. Army paratroopers are also said to be in place – and yet these numbers still don’t seem on a level needed for an outright ground assault, as Trump is said to be mulling some kind of high risk seizure of Iran’s uranium (below).

Fresh Monday statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continue to signal a longish timeframe for US operations in Iran (far beyond the mere ‘days’ mentioned in late February at the start). Speaking somewhat ambiguously, he said “over time” the US will “retake” control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Hundreds of US Special Ops military personnel, including Navy SEALs and Army Rangers, are now in the Middle East, as well as Marines and Army paratroopers, sources tell @CBSNews. We reported on some of the preparations on March 20. The deployments serve to give Trump options in… https://t.co/aqlporCFSG

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) March 30, 2026

“We are seeing more and more ships go through on a daily basis as individual countries cut deals with the Iranian regime for the time being,” Bessent described, saying also “The market is well supplied,” according to Bloomberg.

Iran Again Rejects ‘Excessive’ Demands

Iran has once again stated that it has rejected the latest “US demands” as “excessive and illogical” according to state Tasnim, also confirming that it did not participate in the weekend Pakistan-hosted summit attended by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

“We have never had any direct negotiations with the United States. What has been raised are messages received through intermediaries indicating the US desire to negotiate,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a press conference Monday. Meanwhile Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is expected in China on Tuesday for talks with his Chinese counterpart, after Beijing made clear it is ready to back a Pakistan-mediated peace effort.

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has urged President Trump to end the war, saying Washington holds the key here to stopping a worse spiral. “I tell President Trump: Nobody can stop the war in our region in the Gulf but you,” Sisi stated at the opening of the country’s Egypes energy conference. Still, despite Tehran’s latest statement of rejection, Trump put out of a fresh Monday Truth Social Post displaying some optimism toward dealing with a “more reasonable regime” and mentioned “great progress” – but coupled with the usual ‘or else’ type threats. For example, Trump again has threatened to destroy Iran energy sites and Kharg Island.

Over the weekend Trump had said to reporters aboard Air Force One, “The one regime was decimated, destroyed, they’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead, and the third regime – we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before… and frankly, they’ve been very reasonable.”

Plan For Uranium Seizure

With more Marines and reportedly Airborne troops en route to the region, among Trump’s ‘options’ is the seizure of Iran’s enriched uranium. A fresh Wall Street Journal report says Monday, “President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, according to U.S. officials, a complex and risky mission that would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer.”

No decision has been made, the report makes clear, and the White House is said to be considering the danger to US troops. On this question, the likelihood for something to ‘go wrong’ – or some kind of mass casualty event for American forces, would be high. This would also open the possibility of forces getting bogged down for at least weeks, months, or longer – and not just ‘days’ of an operation.

“It’s the job of the Pentagon to make preparations in order to give the commander-in-chief maximum optionality. It does not mean the president has made a decision,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has sought to clarify of plans.

Unbelievable video

filmed by a resident from Tehran shows the reality of life under Israeli/US strikes

pic.twitter.com/xzmcXc469h

— Fazel Hawramy (@FazelHawramy) March 29, 2026

One key part of the WSJ report gives a window into where future negotiations would focus: “The president has also encouraged his advisers to press Iran to agree to surrender the material as a condition for ending the war, according to a person familiar with Trump’s thinking,” the report says. “Trump has been clear in conversations with political allies that the Iranians can’t keep the material, and he has discussed seizing it by force if Iran won’t give it up at the negotiating table.” But already Tehran sees itself in an existential war for survival, and so isn’t going to be very open to just giving up its enriched stockpiles.

Israeli Oil Refinery on Fire

Huge fires have been observed at the Bazan oil refinery in Israel’s northern city of Haifa, after another apparent Iranian attack, which marks the second such hit on the site since the war started.

Israeli television channels have reported the attack and emergency response at the scene. “Search and rescue forces, both reserve and regular forces, are on their way to a site in northern Israel where reports of impact have been received,” the IDF said in a statement.

Area residents are being asked to stay inside and shelter in place, with Jerusalem Post reporting “The Environmental Protection Ministry told Ma’ariv that a gasoline tank is burning in the refinery complex, producing thick smoke, but with no risk to the population in the area from a hazardous materials incident.”

Smoke rising from Haifa’s Petrochemical complex following reported Iranian missile strike.

BREAKING:

Smoke rising from Haifa’s Petrochemical complex following reported Iranian missile strike. pic.twitter.com/iXlQn41Ohp

— Iran News 24 (@IRanMediaco) March 30, 2026

Iran Claims Some Attacks as Israeli False Flags

There’s been another interesting accusation that Israel is conducing false flags to make any potential ceasefire deal much harder. It’s remained an open question whether things will escalate toward an all-out exchange of fire on infrastructure, such as energy sites and water plants.

Iran’s military has newly accused Israel of attacking Kuwait’s desalination plant, according to Al Jazeera. The Iranian statement, featured in semi-official Tasnim agency, said the “Zionist regime’s brutal attack on Kuwait’s desalination plant, under the pretext of accusing the Islamic Republic of Iran, which took place in the past few hours, is a sign of the vileness and baseness of the Zionist occupiers.”

Indian worker killed in attack on Kuwait plant…

Kuwait says an Indian worker has been killed in an Iranian attack on a power and desalination plant, as Gulf states report intercepting drones and missiles.

Al Jazeera’s Zein Basravi reports from Dubai. pic.twitter.com/hCgettyBSf

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) March 30, 2026

“We declare that American bases and military personnel, their interests in the region, and the military, security, and economic infrastructure and facilities of the Zionist regime will continue to be our powerful targets,” it said. There’s also a lingering threat against American university branch campuses in the region, after over the weekend two Iranian campuses in Tehran came under attack. Iran had earlier said the long-range attacks (which failed) against the UK’s remote Diego Garcia base was also a false flag.

*  *  * Give it a shot

Authored by Nate Fischer via American Intelligence,

The relationship between the tech right and the populist right is a central question of our day.

After an initial alliance in the lead-up to the 2024 campaign, fissures quickly appeared. The first prominent one was the Christmas H-1B fight. Others followed, both in and out of the administration. In many ways, the divide has been growing — with Bannon leading tech critiques, and Republican politicians like DeSantis staking out tech-skeptical stances. Trump has managed to keep things together, but the future is unclear.

I believe an alliance is necessary both for America’s success and for the right to have the power to dislodge the entrenched establishment left.

The simplest approach would be a pragmatic alliance of necessity — both factions push distinct priorities, and compromise where necessary to form a political coalition.

But I think we should aim for more — for an alliance between the tech right and the populist (or cultural) right that gives each group a crucial, or even heroic, role in a shared vision for America. I believe such a vision can center on (1) an appreciation for the conditions — and the people — that ultimately drive tech-enabled prosperity, and (2) an appreciation for how disruptive technology can structurally favor right-aligned constituencies and address central priorities of the cultural right.

Populists need tech:

The populist right needs tech. It may not need specific tech elites, or even anywhere close to a majority of current Silicon Valley figures, but it needs a positive vision for technology and it needs people who can master technology. Two factors drive this:

First, Americans have always been favorably inclined to technology. I believe if the parties split on technology, the pro-tech party will have a significant structural advantage with the electorate. This inclination is not new: In 1840, Tocqueville noted how Americans happily built ships that would last only a few years because of their enthusiasm for new innovations that would quickly obsolesce them. In the mid-to-late nineteenth century, Americans broadly embraced the power of technologies from the revolver to the railroad to conquer and settle the West. And America’s embrace of technology was certainly apparent in the broad popularity of the tech industry for much of the last half-century. It’s possible a tech-skeptical party can succeed in other countries, but I suspect that in America any party capable of real wins must present a positive vision for the use and mastery of technology.

Second, whether we like it or not, technology will shape the future. This has always been true to varying extents; people and groups who mastered major new technologies usually gained outsized influence, and often came to rule new regimes. In the case of major transitions like the shift to the digital age, the stakes are particularly high. Opposing technologies like AI may be a little like opposing gunpowder in the fifteenth century: many may not have liked its impact on the world, but the world was shaped by those who mastered it.

Tech needs populists:

The tech right also needs populist support. Entrenched legacy leftist interest groups retain tremendous power, and without strong opposition, will simultaneously try to stifle new technologies and squeeze technologists for the money needed to fund their ever-more-bloated programs. Populists represent large factions deeply skeptical of this legacy regime, and are capable of bringing tremendous political energy to any opposing coalition.

A populist right aligns with tech on more than just opposition to legacy elites. Right-leaning Americans are among the only people on earth broadly supportive of the free market policies and rule of law that allow Silicon Valley to thrive. While populism can create tensions with free-market and rule-of-law idealists, the broad populist right goal of cultural preservation includes restoration of the conditions necessary to preserve these norms.

Deeper alignment:

Finally, I believe the tech right and populist right need each other — not just to politically partner against common enemies, but to achieve the technological dynamism technologists pursue, and the restored status and opportunity populists seek.

This symbiosis reflects the particular character of the American people in a time of technological disruption: Americans are uniquely suited to mastering technology.

Americans are good for tech innovators–multiplying the impact of new technologies by acting not just as consumers but as creative and productive users of technology. This is not limited to a few exceptional entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley; rather, millions of Americans in companies across the country have a particular drive (relative to many other cultures globally) to find new sources of leverage and better ways to do things. These are the people who jump on new technologies that can solve such problems, embracing the change this entails. A country of such people is a country ripe for innovations that would find far smaller markets in more conservative or less resourceful societies. This particular character opens the aperture for technological innovation, and plays a key role in America’s technological dynamism.

By the same token, technologists can be good for the American people. While many tech innovations theoretically spread rapidly around the globe, in practice, Americans will often be the biggest beneficiaries of them because of this particular facility with technology–advancing the relative position of the American people in a time of global and cultural competition. This is especially true for core constituencies of the populist right, such as independent executives and skilled physical-world workers, who stand to benefit from technologies like AI – in contrast with core opposing constituencies like bureaucrats, who are ripe for replacement with AI.

Call to action:

Thus, the tech right should champion not just the free markets widely recognized as enabling Silicon Valley’s success, but also the people and culture that make America such a fertile place for technological innovation and development. Practically this means embracing both product and policy decisions that strengthen rather than undermine this culture. This means building products that solve critical problems and serve as platforms for broader productive application, and avoiding products that contribute to vice or addiction. And it means supporting immigration and trade policies that first and foremost strengthen the American people, rather than optimizing for those that serve the most immediate desires of tech companies.

The populist right should embrace technological innovation. This means encouraging Americans at all levels to master new technologies, recognizing the potential of such technologies to advance America’s position versus geopolitical rivals and the position of core populist right constituencies domestically. And it means politically supporting tech leaders who accept their responsibility to the American people – supporting policies that allow continued innovation, and protecting successful innovators from the confiscatory efforts of the left.

The alliance I propose is aspirational: Today, many in Silicon Valley – even many who would see themselves on the right – have little regard for the priorities of the populist or cultural right. And many populists more easily see the immediate threats that social media poses to families and that AI poses to jobs, and they remember with distrust the degree to which tech companies embraced censorship and deplatforming. But I believe the need for political alliance is clear, and the potential alignment toward a shared vision far deeper than many recognize. One of the great opportunities for statesmanship in coming years is the forging of such an alliance.

Space weather website SolarHam reported Monday morning that a “surprise X1.5 solar flare” was detected on the sun and may impact Earth within the next 48 hours. This comes ahead of NASA’s Artemis II launch on Wednesday and could affect the launch if the solar storm is severe.

“AR 4405 erupted this morning at 03:18 UTC (Mar. 30) with a surprise X1.5 solar flare. This event launched a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) into space, which also appears to have an Earth-directed component,” SolarHam wrote in a space weather update earlier this morning.

A 1.15 X-flare exploded from sunspot 4405, launched a gigantic coronal mass ejection into space which will impact Earth and our surrounding space environment right around April 1st. This is the date set for the launch of Artemis II, a ten day space mission around the Moon by… pic.twitter.com/3cTNRkbsHQ

— Stefan Burns (@StefanBurnsGeo) March 30, 2026

The update continued, “Although the main bulk of plasma is heading to the east, the edge of the CME should pass Earth within the next 48 hours.”

For context, an X1.5 solar flare is large. The standard scale goes A, B, C, M, then X, with each step representing a 10-fold increase in X-ray intensity. That means an X-class flare is the strongest major category.

A strong X-class solar flare can affect GPS, satellites, communications, and power grids, and even cause delays in rocket launches. The size of the disruption depends on whether it is Earth-facing and whether it is accompanied by a coronal mass ejection.

Upcoming this week is NASA’s Artemis II crewed mission atop the Space Launch System rocket. So far, government forecasters are calling for an 80% chance of acceptable weather on launch day. NASA has not provided any update indicating that the current solar storm threat will affect the mission. Artemis II is currently targeted for no earlier than Wednesday, April 1, at 6:24 p.m. EST.

Authored by Rob Arnott via RealClearPolitics,

We get the government we choose to elect, hence the government we deserve. Voting for ever-higher punitive taxes on the rich is arguably a form of civic suicide. Consider that a wealthy New Yorker can get a raise of almost 40% just by moving.

That’s right. If moving eliminates a 14.8% top state and local tax rate, our top-tier taxpayer gets a 36% raise, not a 14.8% raise, by leaving. It’s doubtful if any of our city and state leaders have done this math, but it’s shocking.

Mamdani wants to take the top rate up another 2%, if not by the state then by the city, which would mean that our rich neighbor can get a 42% raise.

Here’s how the math works.

A rich New Yorker pays a maximum state and city income tax of 14.8%, on top of a maximum federal tax of 37%. But there are hidden taxes. Uncapped Medicare and Medicaid taxes push the marginal federal tax to 39.4%. If the income is earned on investments, the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT, another gift from Obamacare) adds another 3.8%, pushing the top federal tax above 43%.

So, top-tier New York taxpayers may soon pay a marginal tax of 43% to the IRS and 17% to the city and state of New York. The combined 60% marginal tax rates mean they have the privilege of keeping 40 cents of each new dollar they earn. A move to one of the nine states with no income tax allows our taxpayer to keep 57% of every additional dollar of income, instead of 40%. Do the math. That’s a 42% raise.

Forget the argument about “paying their fair share.” “Fair” is an entirely subjective term. Your fair share of someone else’s money might be seen as a ripoff by them, especially if the money is spent less wisely than we might spend our own money. If you are rich and believe you’ve earned your money, will you consider leaving a state for a permanent 40% raise? Of course.

This is hardly a phenomenon unique to New York. California’s headline top rate of 13.3% becomes 14% with the phase-out of deductions. A Silicon Valley billionaire can keep 43% of each new dollar of income. Moving to Dallas or Miami, or Anchorage for the adventuresome, boosts this to 57%, a raise of almost 33%. This doesn’t even count the “please leave now” impetus of a “one-time only” 5% wealth tax on billionaires. Never mind that the fine print on the wealth tax initiative turns a 5% tax into a 50% expropriation for billionaires like the founders of Google, because their 30% voting share at Google, not their 3% equity ownership, is used to determine the tax.

People have called the United States “50 laboratories of democracy.” A state or a city is welcome to impose whatever taxes, regulations, or laws are allowed by its own bylaws or the national Constitution. And citizens are welcome to choose whichever states have taxes, regulations, and laws that they feel best align with their values and beliefs.

Nor is it unique to our various states, with their diverse tax regimes. Taxes drove the Rolling Stones to their own “Exile on Main Street,” relocating to France of all places to escape England’s 90% top tax rate (where a tiny drop to 85% would provide a 50% pay raise). Even Switzerland has divergent tax rates, ranging from 22% in Zug to roughly 40% in Berne, Geneva, and Vaud. Where do the billionaires tend to live? Zug.

Milton Friedman has been credited with the observation that the only thing more mobile than the wealthy is their capital. It is the rich who largely fund government spending, whether that spending is at the federal, state, or local level, and whether that spending is wise or foolish. Instead of a politics of envy, perhaps we should try a politics of gratitude.

Rob Arnott is founding chairman of Research Affiliates, a $160 billion asset management firm based in Newport Beach, CA.

* * *

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“This sort of derangment is a novel psychopathology in the human species. . . a synthesis of low-IQ feminized brain scramble & neurotic lunacy.”

– JD Haltigan on X

Went to the No Kings assemblies in my town and the next nearby town on Saturday. Mental illness as far as the eye could see. Old folks, too, as far as the eye could see, predominately of the female persuasion: the devouring grandmothers. The Democratic Party has marshalled mental illness as its premier campaign strategy, and lately it is winning bigly around the country as mental illness becomes the go-to cope option for the ragged remnants of Boomerdom.

They believe things that are patently insane, for instance, the latest proposal by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) that illegal immigrants deserve reparations on account of being “traumatized” by U.S. immigration enforcement actions.

If it feels like the Democratic Party is at war with our country you are not hallucinating.

It is every bit as much a jihad as the Death to America crowd in Iran has explicitly pushed since 1979.

The president gets no help whatsoever from his own party, as you see in the disgraceful hijinks around the urgent issue of election reform. You know exactly how the election playbook was written: let x-million foreigners into the country illegally, give them (illegally) social security numbers, driver’s licenses, automatic voter registrations, addresses, mail-in ballots. . . and voila! They don’t even have to mail-in their own mail-in ballots. Lawfare ninja Marc Elias will arrange ballot pick-up service. And the cherry on top is that the census must count all the illegal aliens to add new congressional districts for extra seats in Congress.

So, in the face of that, Republican Majority Leader John Thune could not muster enough votes to save the SAVE Act. Or so he said. Looks more like lack a’wanna. Eerie lack a’wanna. On their tours of cable news, the hapless Republican senators, when asked, would not name their colleagues leaning against the SAVE Act. But you know who they are. Mitch McConnell, Murkowski, Tillis, Collins, Capito.

Leader Thune could not even manage to get Homeland Security funded with the prospect of Iranian sleeper cells awakening around the country. He just threw in the towel at three o’clock in the morning on Friday, and sent the whole crew home to meet the Easter Bunny. Chuck Schumer did an end-zone dance. The brokenness of our politics could not be more in your face. As things shape up this grueling springtime, Mr. Trump might have to go Abe Lincoln on these folks. That is, declare some sort of national emergency to save the election and the country.

Of course, the nation is more than a little distracted just now with doings in Iran. The No Kings folk are unabashedly rooting for everything to go wrong there, and not a few conservatives in the public arena are straining to conjure an Iranian victory in their black-pilled deliriums. Many claim they “have no idea” what we are doing there — can it be that hard? — or else they are rabidly exercised over our alliance with Israel in the operation. You know how that goes. Cue Tucker. He’ll explain.

The truth is we are pounding these savage Shia clerics and their Revolutionary Guard myrmidons to the garden of eternal bliss where the seventy-two virgins wait. Whatever remains of Iran’s legit government is bargaining under cover for an off-ramp now. Pakistan mediates. The parties sit in different rooms and pass notes through the mediators in a third room. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pretends that he will not negotiate with Mr. Trump’s envoys, Witkoff and Kushner, both Jews, the horror! But that’s sheer fakery.

To avoid humiliation in the process, Iran is still lobbing missiles and drones around the Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Israel, and they will probably keep doing that until the very moment of capitulation. Anyway, in less than a week, Mr. Trump turns the lights off all over Iran, and then they are back in the twelfth century. . . no command communication, no juice for anything, no money, no food, no water, no nothing . . . and a population getting dangerously desperate to make it all go away. . . to return to some dim memory of what normal life once was in an Iran not ruled by psychotic death cultists.

Everybody else is greatly alarmed by the disruption of Persian Gulf oil supplies through Hormuz.

Global finance was already pretty shaky before the hot war commenced, and the economic tail of that dog was not wagging happily.

In America, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Apollo Global, and Blue Owl Capital had recently “gated” redemptions — meaning investors can’t get all or part of their money out of plays that are folding on collateral rot. This private equity fiasco has significant contagion potential.

The sudden oil shock makes everything feel a hundred times worse, and pain is already felt, especially in the far east and Australia / New Zealand.

But consider that the Hormuz “blockade” is also a bit of last-ditch capitulation bravado.

It could be a shorter crisis than the alarmists imagine. We see everything that Iran has got from high in the sky, whatever attack boats remain. . . the thermal signatures of rockets going off. . . the bays where the drones emerge.

Mr. Trump might order troops in to the stabilize ports and more than one island. Or perhaps not.

I doubt we’ll know until after Iranian lights go out. If the kinetics conclude, what remains is re-starting the maritime insurance apparatus with or without Lloyd’s of London. Then, tankers start moving again.

It’s no secret that Washington is looking for an off-ramp amid what has been a steady pattern of escalation with Iran over the past month since Operation Epic Fury began. The White House’s anticipated timeline and even list of objectives has seriously shifted since the war’s start, as has the scope, given Tehran’s ‘unexpected’ big retaliatory strikes on the Gulf and Israel – including on energy and infrastructure targets.

It seems Trump was thinking Iran could be parallel to the Venezuela situation – where a ‘decapitation’ operation swiftly removed Maduro and the US basically acknowledged a pliant puppet in his place (Delcy Rodríguez). That’s why White House officials at the very start were talking about an operation that would lust just ‘days’ or maybe a couple weeks. Now, one month in, and we have fresh headlines like this: “Iran war enters its fourth week with no clear end in sight.”

The US administration is meanwhile trying to refocus its definable objectives, however overall vision and strategy for a ‘mission accomplished’ end-goal has been anything but clear. For example, the start of the war saw the White House officially list as an objective the end of Iran’s nuclear program and removal of enriched uranium – but that is no longer listed.

Instead, the State Dept. – citing Marco Rubio – has issued the following military objectives in Iran:

1. The destruction of Iran’s air force

2. The destruction of their navy

3. The severe diminishing of their missile launching capability

4. The destruction of their factories

These are much more ‘achievable aims’ allowing the Trump administration to save face by declaring they’ve all been met, whenever it wants to proclaim a mission complete situation, and pull Pentagon assets from the theatre.

But the fact that Iran still has de facto hold over the Strait of Hormuz remains a big problem, as does its ongoing nuclear capabilities, despite that nuclear sites have been degraded or possibly destroyed.

One big and somewhat surprising sign that the US-Israeli coalition could be about to wind down the war is that Times of Israel on Monday ran the following headline:

“A month into the war with Iran, the Israeli military has almost completed bombing all of the targets it defined for itself at the start of the conflict, and has now been ordered by Israel’s political leadership to shift to hitting ‘economic’ targets of the Iranian regime,” the publication wrote.

It goes on: “The Israeli Air Force has conducted hundreds of waves of strikes in Iran, dropping over 13,000 bombs on Iranian regime and military sites, including air defense systems, ballistic missile launchers, weapon production sites, some nuclear facilities, and various headquarters.”

The same report also details how dozens of top civilian and military leaders have been killed in the campaign, and most importantly longtime Ayatollah Ali Khamnieni. However, the report also mentions one Israeli objecting of “setting the conditions” for some kind of popular uprising which could topple the government, and that has not happened. Still, the language in the report strongly suggests an offramp could be in the works, perhaps under pressure by the United States:

On Saturday, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said that “within a few days” the military would complete targeting all of the “critical” assets of Iran’s military production industries, sites used to develop weapons that threaten Israel. The military has also said it has taken out most of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems.

And here’s a key line from Times of Israel:

Israel’s defense establishment is now in what it described as the “completion phase” of the goals it set out at the start of the war, meaning it believes it has largely achieved its objectives of degrading Iran’s military capabilities and “creating the conditions” for the Iranian regime to fall, The Times of Israel has learned.

Yet there are still other signs which suggest the war could go on for quite a bit longer, and even turn into a deeper quagmire, given the White House has yet to rule out ground forces.

I told @NewYorker: “What is the point of the entire U.S. military role in the Middle East? If it has any point, it should be to prevent something like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet U.S. military action has only brought about the very problem it’s supposed to prevent.”

— Stephen Wertheim (@stephenwertheim) March 30, 2026

Is Trump heading toward trying to ‘force’ a ‘mission accomplished’ moment? It would be interesting if this happened before the Strait of Hormuz was actually opened up. Such an outcome would probably be used by Iranian officials to instead declare ‘victory’ for the Islamic Republic.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) appeared on NBC’s Meet the Press Sunday morning and delivered a scathing rebuke of his own party, saying it has “failed this moment.” 

Booker was on the show to promote his new book, and host Kristen Welker read a passage from it in which he argues that political coalitions can’t succeed if they exclude people based on “purity tests” or demand total agreement on every issue. 

In his book, he wrote, “We cannot cancel everyone who fails a purity test. We cannot exile those who don’t align with our every belief, however passionately we hold it. Coalitions that are only composed of the already converted cannot change the country. If everyone in your coalition agrees with you on everything, your coalition is too small, too small to make big change and too small for what our democracy demands.”

Welker then pressed him on whether Democrats are shrinking their coalition by doing exactly that. “Do you believe Democrats are making the mistake of shrinking their coalition with what you describe as purity tests, senator?”

“Look, I’m proud of so many things that my Democratic colleagues are doing, but as a whole, our party has failed this moment,” he replied. “It’s why I’ve called for new leadership in America. I’ve called for a generational renewal, because this left-right divide is killing our country, and our adversaries know it. They come onto our social media and try to whip up hate in America. That is one of our biggest crises. It is time for a new vision of our country that’s far more uniting, that brings people together, doesn’t deepen divides. I really believe this is a time where we need new leadership, new moral imagination to pull our country together, because the challenges on the horizon aren’t just this current crisis that Trump has caused.”

Booker even appeared to criticize the Democrats’ Trump obsession, telling Welker that Trump “shouldn’t be the main character of our narrative right now.”

“We have real challenges from new technologies like AI and robotics, new challenges, that we need more unity in our country, and a reminder that we are not each other’s enemies. In fact, our ability to find common ground has always been our greatest hope.”

Booker continued, “Americans want a new generation of leaders that show that they can lift the whole country up,” he said. And then, in case anyone missed it: “It is time for a new vision of our country that is far more uniting that brings people together, doesn’t deepen divides.”

While hawking his new book on Meet the Press, Cory Booker calls for new leaders in the Democrat Party and says that Democrats have “failed this moment.”

“I’m proud of so many things that my Democratic colleagues are doing, but as a whole, our party has failed this moment.”

Then… pic.twitter.com/3Js1l3Pjk1

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) March 29, 2026

Booker’s comment reeks of irony. According to reports, Senate Democrats are quietly – and not so quietly – tearing each other apart over Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. 

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) recently met with progressive activists in Georgetown, where the discussion turned to whether Chuck Schumer could be pushed out of leadership. Murphy indicated that some lawmakers had been informally counting votes to gauge support for removing Schumer. Murphy is reportedly part of a group of senators quietly canvassing colleagues about dissatisfaction with Schumer. That group, dubbed “Fight Club,” is reportedly coordinating through a Signal chat to oppose Schumer’s preferred candidates in key 2026 races. The group believes Schumer has been putting his thumb on the scale for centrist candidates while an insurgent wave of progressive energy goes untapped. 

That sounds like a party that is still demanding ideological purity, not diversity. It would be foolish to think that Cory Booker is calling for the next generation of Democratic leaders to take over because they’ll bring ideological diversity to the party. Much of the anger against Chuck Schumer stems from his vote to fund the federal government in March of 2025 to avoid a shutdown. His approval ratings tanked because he was seen as capitulating to President Donald Trump, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been floated as a possible primary challenger, and polling even showed her with a double-digit lead over Schumer.

 Who does Booker think he’s fooling?

*  *  *

Another near-miss has unfolded over NATO skies, with Turkey on Monday announcing that air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran. It’s another dangerous indication that the Iran war could easily expand into a broader conflict at any moment. 

The intercept was carried out by air and missile defense assets positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean, according to the Turkish defense ministry, which offered no further initial details concerning trajectory, type, or what the intended target ultimately was.

This marks the fourth fourth such interception since March of the war and Operation Epic Fury, which has surpassed the one-month mark.

The timing is notable given Ankara is simultaneously trying to play middleman between Washington and Tehran, alongside Pakistan where regional diplomats have been trying to jump-start direct Tehran-Washington talks, which has proven elusive.

Turkish and NATO officials have struck a familiar tone, describing that “all necessary measures” are being taken to counter threats to Turkish territory and airspace, and further saying that ongoing developments will be “closely monitored”.

There’s been speculation that these ballistic missiles from Iran could be intended for US-British military assets in Cyprus. Earlier in the conflict drones were sent – likely from Iranian allies in Lebanon – onto a British airbase in EU-member Cypriot territory.

NATO command has previously stated that “Our deterrence and defense posture remains strong across all domains, including when it comes to air and missile defense.”

This developing pattern of large Iranian missiles flying over Turkey has raised the potential for invoking NATO Article 5, despite US officials having downplayed this option. 

During the first incident, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth had described, “On the matter with Turkey, I’ll have to get back to you on exactly what the intercept looked like.”

He laid out at the time that “We’re aware of that particular engagement, although no sense that it would trigger anything like Article 5.”  

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

White House border czar Tom Homan said on March 29 that ICE agents will be used to help out at airports as long as necessary and noted that Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents should receive a paycheck by March 30 or March 31.

Homan said U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents would help with security until airports feel they are back at 100 percent.

“We’ll be there as long as they need us, until they get back to normal operations and feel like those airports are secure,” Homan said in a CBS interview.

He confirmed an earlier statement by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) that TSA agents would be paid, possibly as soon as March 30.

“It’s good news because these TSA officers are struggling; they can’t feed their families or pay their rent,” Homan told CNN. “We’re talking about the Department of Homeland Security in a time we have a heightened threat posture in this country because of what is going on in the world. This should be the last thing they are fighting over funding for.”

CNN’s Jake Tapper tried to force Tom Homan into committing whether ICE agents would leave airports now that TSA has been ordered to be paid.

Homan refused to take the bait — instead, he laid out exactly how ICE is keeping airports secure.

TAPPER: “Once TSA agents start getting… pic.twitter.com/IZIful2SZa

— Overton (@overton_news) March 29, 2026

The partial shutdown of the DHS began Feb. 14, which is when funding stopped.

The White House rapid response account on X stated on March 18 that some small airports could close due to the shutdown. The White House stated that more than 30 percent of the TSA workers in New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston, and New York City had called in sick.

Media reports have shown long lines at airports across the country. CNN reported mid-afternoon on March 29 that there were three airports with wait times of 40 minutes or longer, but none longer than 47 minutes.

The DHS stated on March 27 on X that TSA agents would get paid as early as March 30.

“TSA officers are now losing their homes and cars, struggling to put food on the table, and are experiencing all-around financial catastrophe because of this extended shutdown,” the DHS said in a post on X. “Travelers are facing record breaking wait times stretching hours and hours long causing missed flights, unnecessary delays, and booking headaches.”

Congress failed to pass a new funding bill for the DHS because Republicans and Democrats disagreed over limits on ICE funding and operations.

Each major political party is blaming the other for the shutdown.

“This crisis is a direct result of chaos unleashed on the American people by Democrats in Congress,” the DHS stated.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Republicans are tying DHS funding to immigration enforcement demands.

“Today, for the TENTH TIME, Democrats will go to the floor to demand that we pay TSA immediately. And for the TENTH TIME, Republicans will have a chance to join us. I’m not holding my breath,” Schumer said in a March 25 post on X.

On March 20, the White House rapid response account on X posted that a food bank had been set up at Pittsburgh International Airport for TSA officers who hadn’t been paid in weeks.

TSA annual base salaries range from $74,547 to $92,683, according to government website USAJobs.gov.

Futures are higher despite continued Iran war escalation which pushed Brent higher by around 2% after Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen joining the war on Iran’s said, bouncing from overnight lows which may be driven by positioning, but also by a major shift in the regime with oil now rising instead of falling on higher oil prices as the market pivots to price in not inflation but recession (and look at the spike in gold/bitcoin this morning as the next stimmy starts getting priced in). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are at session highs, rising 0.6% after the benchmark slumped to an August low at the end of last week, and reversing an early overnight loss; Nasdaq futures rise 0.7% with all Mag7 names higher premarket, boosting Semis, as Cyclicals (incl Energy) are leading Defensives ex-healthcare. The moves in Energy and healthcare are also breaking recent trends suggesting investors may be shifting portfolios to cash flow heavy names as they consider oil prices remaining elevated for longer.  The most notable move overnight is that after weeks of rising, US yields fell across the curve after money markets cut the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to about 20%, from around 35% on Friday. The rate on two-year Treasuries dropped five basis points to 3.87% while 10Y yields are down 7bps to 4.36% The dollar was little changed. Commodities are stronger as WTI moves above $100/bbl. Gold/precious and bitcoin are all higher despite USD strength, breaking the recent trend, as they start pricing in the looming stimulus to offset the next recession. Today’s US economic data calendar includes the March Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am. Ahead this week are consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, retail sales, ISM manufacturing and – in an abbreviated session on Friday – March jobs report

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Meta +1%, Nvidia +0.6%, Microsoft +0.9%, Amazon +0.6%, Tesla +0.8%, Alphabet +0.4%, Apple +0.2%

• Aluminum stocks, including Alcoa (AA), rise after a rally in the metal price following Iran’s attacks on Middle Eastern aluminum facilities. Alcoa (AA) gains 9%.
• Expedia (EXPE) gains 2% and Instacart (CART) rises 1% after Jefferies upgraded both to buy, saying a pullback in internet stocks on concerns about artificial intelligence disruptions has created buying opportunities.
• IQiyi ADRs (IQ) gain 12% after the Chinese streaming platform said it’s planning a listing in Hong Kong and announced a $100 million buyback program.
• Spire Inc. (SR) gains 4% after agreeing to sell its gas marketing business to Boardwalk Pipelines for $215 million in cash.
• Sysco (SYY) falls 4% after the US food distributor agreed to buy privately held Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion including debt.
• Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) tumbles 40% after announcing topline results from a clinical trial in active thyroid eye disease.

WTI crude surged above $100 after the arrival of a US amphibious assault group and the entry of Iran-backed Houthi forces into the conflict heightened fears of escalation as the war entered its second month. Trump told the Financial Times that he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, a move that could trigger significant retaliation from Tehran.

While traders have so far largely focused on the inflationary shock from rising oil prices, sending the Treasury market toward its deepest monthly loss since October 2024, some of Wall Street’s biggest bond-fund managers said yields will slide as the war’s impact on growth becomes more apparent.

“The slight recovery in the bond markets is only temporary,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. “The impact on inflation is not yet fully priced in, and potential interest rate hikes would negatively affect the already gloomy economic outlook.”

“While inflation remains a concern, the potential drag on growth and confidence should start to act as an offset, limiting further upside in yields,” said Francisco Simón, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. “Together with oil, we think the bond market is currently one of the clearest expressions of how markets are pricing the impact of the conflict on the macro outlook.”

Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the conflict putting additional pressure on supply via a chokepoint in the Red Sea (although they have not yet indicated they will halt the key chokepoint). JPM estimates the impact is ~5mm bpd which could add another $20/bbl to oil prices. Trump states that Iran has agreed to most of the 15-point plan while Iran’s Foreign Minister says that there have been no direction talks, called US demands excessive / illogical, and that Iran did not participate in diplomatic meetings in Pakistan over the weekend. This morning Trump said on TS that there had been “great progress” in talks with Iran, and warned that if a deal with Iran is not “shortly reached,” and the Hormuz Strait is not immediately open, “we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island.”

With two sessions left, the S&P 500 has tumbled 7.0% this quarter – its worst performance since the rate-hike selloff four years ago. Still, that 2Q 2022 slump was more than twice as severe.

“Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge,” Goldman Sachs’ Prime Trading desk said in a note on hedge funds’ US exposure. On a trailing six-week basis, US net selling ranked third-largest over the past decade. In a separate note, GS traders noted that heavy short sales by hedge funds and disposals by systematic investors have increased the potential for a sharp swing higher for stocks in the event of a de-escalation in the conflict.

Elsewhere, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson noted that the S&P 500 correction is nearing its final stage even as the Iran war continues — although the risk of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes still poses a threat. “We think the equity market is less complacent on growth risks than consensus believes,” he said.

Oil may hit a record $200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on until June, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut, Macquarie Group Ltd. warned. A conflict that stretches through the second quarter would result in historically high real prices, analysts including Vikas Dwivedi said in a note, outlining a scenario with odds of 40%. 

Later on Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate later Monday in a moderated discussion at Harvard University, where he may offer clues on how he sees the war affecting the balance of risks to inflation and employment.

European stocks trimmed their advance with the Stoxx 600 now up only 0.2%; utilities and mining shares are leading gains, while travel, leisure and automobile stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers:

• European mining shares are the best-performers on the Stoxx 600 benchmark after weekend strikes by Iran on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain
• Warsaw’s WIG-Energy index rises as much as 6.9% after power utility Tauron proposed its first dividend since 2015, signaling that the industry is prepared to share its 2025 profits with shareholders after a multi-year pause
• Nokia climbs as much as 3% on a Goldman Sachs upgrade to neutral from sell. The broker sees 17% upside thanks to growth opportunities in Optical and IP Networks divisions
• Sodexo rises as much as 4.4% following an upgrade to buy at Jefferies, which says the contract caterer’s upcoming results and CMD provide an opportunity to reset investor expectations, before building momentum
• Mildef gains as much as 13%, the most since February, after a Dagens Industri column identifies upside factors for the Swedish military equipment maker following share declines
• Boohoo Group shares gain as much as 6.7% after the online fashion retailer said it comfortably beat its earnings guidance in FY26 and said it aims to grow them by a double-digit percentage in FY27
• Alleima shares decline as much as 6.1%, the most since January, as Danske Bank reiterated its sell rating on the Swedish specialty metals firm
• Electrolux shares fall as much as 7.3%, the most since mid-February, after Bank of America cut its recommendation on the Swedish home appliances firm to underperform from buy
• Kinnevik falls as much as 5.4%, the most since March 9, after SEB cut its recommendation on the Swedish investment group to hold from buy and nearly halved its price target
• Hexatronic slumps as much as 11%, the most since July 2025, after SEB Equities cut its rating on the Swedish fiber optic cable manufacturer to hold from buy
• SUSS MicroTec shares pare losses after dropping as much as 19%, the most in five months, following disappointing margin guidance from the German chip equipment company, according to analysts

Earlier, Asian stocks tumbled as investors turned skittish after weekend missile strikes and an expanded US military presence stoked fears of a wider Middle East conflict.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.9%, heading for a third day of declines, as Japan and South Korea led regional losses. Chipmakers TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix weighed among the most on the benchmark. Investor mood was dampened after Iran-backed Houthi militants fired missiles at Israel over the weekend. Iran has rejected the US 15-point proposal and disputed Trump’s claims about negotiations, insisting on war reparations in its own five-point plan. China remained a relative haven with the CSI 300 Index closing down 0.2%, while the Shanghai Composite Index ended the day in positive territory.

“I think China A-shares could get more strategic preference compared to rest markets given its increasing stability and resilience in economic policy,” Anna Wu, a cross-asset strategist at VanEck Associates Corp. in Sydney said. “China has successfully built itself as the world’s largest renewable energy factory.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges higher. The yen is the clear G-10 outperformer, rising 0.4% against the greenback after more jawboning from Japanese authorities. The kiwi is the weakest. Precious metals rise with spot silver up 1.5%. Bitcoin adds 1%. 

In rates, treasury futures are near session highs in early US session, tracking stocks closely, with yields lower by as much as 7bp in belly of the curve, as investors weigh the inflationary effects of the war in the Middle East against a their potential to cause an economic slowdown. Yields fall even as oil prices continue to rise as US and Israeli forces press ahead with attacks on Iran. US yields are 3bp to 6bp richer across the curve with belly-led gains steepening 5s30s spread by around 3bp on the day. 10-year near 4.37% outperforms German and UK counterparts. Focal points of US session include comments by Fed Chair Powell at Harvard University. European government bonds surrendered earlier upside with UK and German two-year yields now slightly higher on the day. The turnaround came as traders went from reducing bets on interest-rate hikes by the Bank of England and European Central Bank this year to adding to them. Traders may have been reacting to data that showed euro-area inflation expectations surged in March.

In commodities, brent crude futures are up around 2.7% near $115.60 a barrel while European natural gas futures also rise 2%.

Today’s US economic data calendar includes March Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am. Ahead this week are consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, retail sales, ISM manufacturing and — in an abbreviated session on Friday — March jobs report. Fed speaker slate includes Powell in a moderated discussion at Harvard (no text release, Q&A expected) at 10:30am and New York Fed President Williams (4pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.6%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.6%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%,
• DAX little changed,
• CAC 40 +0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -7 basis points at 4.37%
• VIX -0.2 points at 30.84
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1220.43, euro -0.1% at $1.1492
• WTI crude +1.9% at $101.56/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, though potential raids would stop short of an invasion. Trump is weighing an operation to extract about 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran. WaPo, BBG
• President Donald Trump said that Iran “gave” the US most of the 15 demands it issued to Tehran to end the war, even as it remains unclear whether either side is negotiating. Publicly, Iran has rejected the US’s 15-point list of ceasefire terms delivered by the Trump administration via intermediaries in Pakistan, and has countered with five conditions of its own — including maintaining sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. BBG
• Oil climbed, with Brent heading for a record monthly gain, as renewed Middle East strikes and a buildup of US troops heightened concerns. The Iran-backed Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Israel over the weekend. Donald Trump said he’s ready to make a deal with Tehran, but he also told the FT he wants to “take the oil” in Iran. Iran’s control of Hormuz is increasing — 80% of tankers exiting the strait have Tehran’s nod. BBG
• Aluminum jumped as Iran’s weekend strikes on smelters in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain threatened a supply crisis. And the energy industry is warning that the biggest supply shock in history is only just beginning. BBG
• US Treasury is to meet with domestic and international insurance regulators in coming weeks to discuss recent developments in private credit markets.
• The yen and the rupee rose on Monday as Japan stepped up its verbal intervention and India forced banks to unwind positions in the foreign exchange markets. The yen strengthened by 0.4 per cent against the US dollar to trade close to ¥159.7. The rupee jumped at the open, climbing more than 1.4 per cent, but gave up almost all of its gains to trade around 94.6 to the dollar. FT
• One BOJ member hinted at the possibility of having to respond to the Mideast war with a bigger rate hike than those recently undertaken, according to a summary of the March 18-19 meeting. BBG
• India’s curbs on FX speculation gave the rupee a brief boost before gains faded. BBG
• Investors who specialize in scooping up distressed assets at bargain prices have identified a downturn in private credit as their best opportunity since the 2008 financial crisis. These funds, which typically invest in companies with bad balance sheets but viable underlying businesses, have been largely sidelined for a decade as markets surged but are now betting on making money from strains in private credit. FT
• The Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold its hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve as soon as the week of April 13. Political resistance has held up Warsh’s nomination in the Senate, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell remaining in place even as President Donald Trump presses for a successor willing to cut interest rates faster. RTRS
• Some signs of capitulation re starting to emerge in Goldman’s PB data. Last week HFs net sold US equities for a 6th straight week and at the fastest pace since Apr ‘25 (-1.6 SDs 1-year), driven by short-and-long sales in Single Stocks and to a lesser extent short sales in Macro Products. On a trailing 6-week basis, the recent US net selling by hedge funds is the 3rd largest over the past decade and starting to approach the levels seen in Apr-May ’20 during Covid and (to a lesser extent) into Liberation Day. GSPB

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured following the geopolitical escalation over the weekend, in which Yemeni Houthis launched missiles towards Israel to enter the conflict for the first time, while the US and Israel also conducted strikes on Iran’s largest steel plants and some energy-related facilities. Furthermore, there were some mixed comments from US President Trump, who said the US could take oil in Iran and could take Kharg Island ‘very easily’, but also stated that they had good negotiations with Iran and claimed Iran responded to the 15-point plan and gave them most points, without providing further details. ASX 200 declined with the downside led by underperformance in tech and financials, although losses were somewhat cushioned by resilience in the energy, defensives and commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 suffered with intraday losses of more than 2000 points amid pressure from higher oil prices and jawboning by Japanese officials, while the Summary of Opinions continued to show a hawkish bias, and money markets are currently pricing in a near coin flip between a hike and a hold at the next BoJ meeting in April. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as participants digested a deluge of earnings, including from ICBC, China Construction Bank, BoCom, PetroChina and BYD, while it was also reported late last week that China began probes on US trade practices in retaliation for the US Section 301 investigations.a

Top Asian News

• Japan’s top FX diplomat Mimura said bold action may be needed if the situation in the Middle East continues, adds hearing that speculative activity is increasing and targeting all fronts in market for action.
• Japanese Government spokesperson says closely watching market moves with a extremely high sense of urgency. Currently seeing large volatility in financial markets.
• S&P affirms Japan at “A+/A-1”; outlook stable.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are mixed, rebounding from losses seen pre-cash open. The FTSE 100 outperforms, helped by gains in miners as aluminium surged following attacks on producing plants in the Middle East. On the other hand, the DAX 40 remains the laggard. Complex is off best levels after the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied direct negotiations with the US, which slightly hit sentiment. European sectors are mixed. Basic Resources and Utilities top the sector pile, while Travel and Leisure and Banks underperform.

Top European News

• German North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM (Mar) M/M 1.2% (Prev. 0.2%).
• German North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 2.7% (Prev. 1.8%).
• EU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar) 43.4 (Prev. 25.8)
• EU Consumer Confidence Final (Mar) -16.3 vs. Exp. -16.3 (Prev. -12.2)

FX

• DXY is currently trading within a 100.05-100.34 range, with very mild gains, as the geopolitical situation continues to keep the Dollar stronger. Near-term upside could see the index retest the Monday 16 high at 100.48. The geopolitical situation remains tense, with the weekend events seemingly showing no signs of near-term peace. The Iran-backed Houthis entered the war for the first time, whilst President Trump suggested that the US could take Kharg Island “very easily”. Most recently, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Iran has not had any direct negotiations with America, adding that they did not partake in Pakistan-led meetings. Now attention turns to Fed Chair Powell later.
• Given the USD strength, G10s are weaker across the board (ex-JPY). The Antipodeans lag, given the risk-tone and after the PBoC set a weaker yuan fix. The EUR slipped below the 1.1500 soon after the European cash open, and was ultimately little moved to the release of several German State CPI metrics, whereby key areas such as Bavaria and North Rhine Westphalia rose more than what is expected for the Nationwide figure, due at 13:00 BST. As it stands, EUR/USD holds towards the lower end of a 1.1487-1.1521 range.
• JPY remains the only currency firmer against the USD this morning. Initially USD/JPY broke above the 160.00 mark (peak 160.46), before reversing back below the mark following hawkish BoJ SOO and continued verbal intervention from Japanese officials. One suggested that they are watching market moves with an “extremely high sense of urgency”.

Central Banks

• BoJ Governor Ueda said BoJ will guide policy appropriately by scrutinising how FX moves could affect the likelihood of achieving growth and price forecasts as well as risks. FX is a factor that makes big impacts on the economy and prices, adds will be closely monitoring the FX market.
• BoJ Summary of Opinions from March meeting stated that a member said it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates if the economic and price forecasts materialise. Conditions remain accommodative even after rate hikes. Member said the BoJ can keep rates steady for now due to Middle East uncertainty. Need to monitor Middle East developments and wages for rate decisions. Member said future rate hike timing depends on Middle East impact, as well as wages, inflation and financial conditions.
• BoJ said that if recent price rises in food prices were to persist, they could exert a sustained upward impact on overall consumer prices. Increases in energy can affect underlying inflation in both directions. Need to pay attention to the possibility that upward price pressures from rising crude may have strengthened as firms become more proactive in hiking prices and wages. Given changes in firms’ price-setting behaviour, prices may now be more susceptible to JPY depreciation.
• ECB’s Stournaras said a longer conflict could mean that the baseline no longer holds.
• ECB’s Lane said there will be no paralysis on potential rate moves, nor any kind of pre-emption; said this is not a like-for-like situation to 2022.
• ECB’s Villeroy said ECB is ready to act, but too early to discuss dates for possible rate hikes. Some over-interpretation on markets recently. Sees no risk of banking crisis in Europe.

Fixed Income

• Despite crude still being firmer, fixed income has managed to benefit from crude easing off best levels, with both energy and debt benchmarks in the green, departing from the recent inverse correlation. Worth noting that a recent denial of US-Iran talks via the Iranian Foreign Ministry, has led to some mild pressure in the fixed income complex.
• USTs gains. Hit a 110-04 trough, lower by two ticks at worst. Since, USTs have rebounded to a 110-17+ peak. Ahead, the docket is headlined by Fed Chair Powell, who is scheduled to speak at Harvard University. Commentary that will be scrutinised for which side of the dual-mandate the Fed is currently most concerned about, and any hints as to whether action should be expected in the near-term.
• Bunds hit a 124.48 low early doors, matching Friday’s close. Since, the benchmark has been gradually but notably making its way higher, to a 124.88 peak with gains of 40 ticks at best. Though, a short-lived bout of pressure was seen as German State CPIs lifted from the prior, as indicated by mainland consensus; figures due at 13:00BST. More recently, no move to a jump in consumer and selling price expectations.
• As is typically the case, Gilts are directionally following peers, but magnitudes are slightly larger. To an 87.60 peak with gains of nearly 50 ticks at best. Specifics for the UK light, awaiting to see what action the government and/or BoE may take to deal with the energy shock.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are stronger this morning. Over the weekend, the Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the war began, marking an expansion in the war, while strikes were reported across the region over the weekend. Trump said talks with Iran were progressing, though he also floated seizing Kharg Island, according to the FT.
• Most recently, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Iran has not had any direct negotiations with America, adding that they did not partake in Pakistan-led meetings. This spurred some modest strength in crude benchmarks at the time. Brent Jun’26 currently towards the upper end of a USD 106.33-109.46/bbl range.
• Spot gold prices are firmer despite a resilient dollar, possibly with some haven appeal returning to the yellow metal and as no signs of an imminent wind down can be seen. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,420-4,550/oz range at the time of writing vs Friday’s USD 4,555/oz peak.
• Elsewhere in metals, aluminium rose after Iran struck two production sites in the Middle East, with LME aluminium outpacing peers. Peers, however, are lifted in tandem despite the resilient USD and cautious sentiment across markets. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 12,019.00- 12,259.88/t range at the time of writing.
• EU Energy Ministers are to discuss on Tuesday, the coordination of the EU response on energy to the Middle East situation; said energy supply remains relatively protected at this stage. EU needs to take measures to address high energy prices, whilst maintaining functioning of EU electricity market. EU faces no immediate supply shortages, but tightening in diesel and jet fuel market.
• A Russian tanker carrying a humanitarian shipment of 100k tonnes of crude oil has arrived in Cuba, IFX reported.
• Two China-linked ships, owned by Cosco Shipping (601919 CN), appear to attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
• SocGen sees a growing likelihood of Brent topping USD 150/bbl amid the Iran war; said Brent may average USD 125/bbl in April amid the Middle East situation.

Geopolitics

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Iran has not had any direct negotiations with America. “What has been discussed are the messages we received through intermediaries that the US wants to negotiate.”, Tasnim reports. The materials that were conveyed to us were excessive and unreasonable requests. The meetings held by Pakistan are a framework that they established and we did not participate.
• US President Trump said the US could take oil in Iran and could take Kharg Island ‘very easily’, according to FT. Trump also stated that indirect talks with emissaries are progressing well and a deal could be made fairly quickly.
• US President Trump said there were good negotiations with Iran on Sunday, and the US destroyed many targets that day, while they are negotiating directly and indirectly with Iran. Trump said regarding Hormuz that Iran gave them 20 boats of oil to pass through, and he thinks they will make a deal pretty soon, but also said it’s possible that they won’t. Trump said Iran responded to the 15-point plan and agreed to most points but provided no further details when asked if Iran had responded. He also claimed that Middle East countries are fighting back against Iran.
• US President Trump reportedly weighs a military operation to extract Iran’s uranium, although the President hasn’t made a decision on the operation, according to US officials cited by WSJ.
• US President Trump claimed Middle East countries are fighting back against Iran.
• Yemen’s Houthis fired missiles at Israel on Saturday morning, marking the first time it has been involved in the war. Houthis said they will continue operations until strikes on Iran and its proxy military groups, such as Hezbollah, stop.
• Iranian Parliament’s National Security member Borujerdi said the time has come for Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the permanent monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz, IRNA reported. According to the plan prepared by the Islamic Council and will be approved as soon as possible, a new system will rule the Strait of Hormuz and traffic will not be possible without the permission of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
• Iran’s acting Defence Minister told the Turkish counterpart that Tehran will continue to punish aggressors, create deterrence and ensure war will not repeat itself, via IRNA.
• In meetings between the commander of the US Central Command in Israel, with the Chief of Staff and senior IDF officials, “the path forward was planned and outlined – for the continuation of the operation.”, i24News sources say. “According to the source, the visit was “successful, and the successes so far in the war were also summarized.”.
• Tehran has agreed to UN’s request for safe passage of ships carrying humanitarian aid through Strait of Hormuz, according to IRNA.
• The start of firing a new wave of Iranian missiles towards Israel; reported of missiles from Lebanon to Israel also reported.
• Local accounts report at least 20 explosions near the oil refinery and petrochemical complex in Abadan, Iran.
• Iranian petrochemical facility was targeted in northwestern Tabriz, Iran according to state media. The fire in Iran’s Tabris Petrochem was extinguished.
• Iraq’s Defence Ministry said the Mohamad Alaa air base was attacked by a rocket. An aircraft was destroyed but no injuries reported; Iraq said “We will not hesitate to pursue anyone who dares to harm Iraq’s security and sovereignty”.
• Iranian attack on one service building in a power and water desalination plant in Kuwait caused serious damage.
• Media sources report simultaneous explosions and attacks on American positions in several countries, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, according to ISNA.
• Successive explosions in American facilities in Kuwait, SNN reported. “According to some sources, the explosions in Kuwait were so formidable and powerful that their sound was clearly heard in the border areas of Iraq.”.
• Explosions and plumes of smoke rising at the American Victory Base in Iraq’s capital of Baghdad.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukraine is ready for a potential Easter ceasefire with Russia, believes there is no deadlock in talks and that Ukraine has received signals from allies on scaling back strikes on Russia’s oil sector.
• US President Trump said Cuba is going to be next and within a short period of time, Cuba is going to fail.
• Chinese President Xi invites Taiwan opposition leader for first visit to the mainland in a decade.

US Event Calendar

• 10:30 am: United States Mar Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 1.5, prior 0.2
• 10:30 am: United States Fed’s Powell in Moderated Discussion
• 4:00 pm: United States Fed’s Williams Speaks on the Economy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Oil prices have continued to climb as we start a new week, with Brent crude up another +2.47% this morning to $115.35/bbl. Several factors have contributed, but the Iran-backed Houthi militants joined the conflict over the weekend, launching strikes at Israel and raising fears about a new front in the war. Moreover, the Wall Street Journal have also reported this morning that Trump is weighing a military operation to extract Iran’s uranium. And in an FT interview that’s also been released, Trump openly suggested the US could take the Kharg Island export hub. So there’s still no sign of a clear end to the conflict, and given the various headlines, investors remain fearful about a fresh escalation.

With everything that’s happened, the market impact is becoming increasingly serious. Indeed, the S&P 500 is now down for 5 consecutive weeks for the first time since 2022, back when the global economy was facing a similar stagflationary shock. Moreover, the NASDAQ fell over -3% last week, marking its worst weekly performance since the Liberation Day announcements last year. And this morning, Asian equity markets are also seeing sharp declines for the most part, with the Nikkei (-3.31%), the KOSPI (-2.88%), the Hang Seng (-0.90%) and the CSI 300 (-0.15%) all losing ground as investors price in a more protracted conflict.

Those fears about a longer conflict are evident from the energy futures curve. For instance, 3-month Brent crude futures are up another +1.79% this morning to $100.50/bbl, which would be their highest closing level since the conflict began. So it’s becoming clear that markets are expecting an extended period of high oil prices, with stagflationary implications for the global economy. Interestingly though, the primary concern this morning has shifted back to the growth side rather than inflation. So markets are pricing out the likelihood of imminent hikes and sovereign bond yields have fallen. In fact, overnight index swaps for the next ECB meeting in April currently see a 47% chance of a hike, which is the first time in over a week that’s been below 50%, whilst US 10yr Treasury yields (-4.0bps) are back at 4.39% overnight, coming down from their 8-month high on Friday. Meanwhile for equities, US futures are stable this morning, with those on the S&P 500 unchanged, but they’re more negative in Europe, with DAX futures down -0.65%.

The latest moves come as there’s no obvious sign of a peace deal being reached. Admittedly, there have been ongoing efforts at mediation from other countries, with Iran’s President Pezeshkian speaking with Pakistan’s PM Sharif on Saturday morning. That was then followed by comments from Pakistan’s foreign minister yesterday, who said “Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate the talks.” According to Trump yesterday, he said they were “doing extremely well in that negotiation”. But Trump also said in the FT interview that his “preference would be to take the oil”, so that pointed towards an escalation. And in a separate Washington Post report over the weekend, it said the Pentagon was preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran. That article suggested it wouldn’t be a full-scale invasion, but could involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry. So for markets, there’s still a huge amount of uncertainty as to what happens next.

Away from the Middle East, we’ve also seen the Japanese yen strengthen overnight, moving up +0.34% against the US Dollar to 159.76. That comes after Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, said that they were hearing about speculative activity picking up in FX markets, and that if it continued, “we believe decisive action may soon be necessary.” In addition, the Bank of Japan’s  Summary of Opinions from their recent meeting had hawkish elements. For example, there was even a comment they should “pay attention to whether it is necessary to accelerate the pace of policy interest rate hikes beyond previous projections and shift toward neutral or restrictive financial conditions, if tension over the situation in the Middle East were to become prolonged.”

Looking at the week ahead, we should start to learn about the economic consequences of the conflict, as several data releases for March are out which cover the period since the strikes began on February 28. In the US, that includes the monthly jobs report on Friday, where our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by +50k in March. As a reminder, US payrolls have been pretty choppy in recent months, and on the current series of revisions they’ve been oscillating between positive and negative readings for every month since May. Last month they were down -92k, but as our economists point out, some of that weakness was a function of a strike at a major healthcare company that’s since ended, along with severe weather that may have temporarily depressed February’s payrolls. So they’re expecting a positive payrolls print for March, although they think the unemployment rate will round up to 4.5% given how close it was last month (4.44%).
Otherwise in the US, the focus will be on whether higher oil prices have started to impact business sentiment and inflation in a meaningful way. So the ISM manufacturing will be in the spotlight, including the prices paid component for whether the inflationary impact has started to filter through. Before that, we’ll also get the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading tomorrow.

Speaking of inflation, the main highlight in Europe will be tomorrow’s flash CPI print for the Euro Area, which is an important one as the ECB work out what to do. To be fair, the flash print from Spain last Friday was weaker than expected, at +3.3% (vs. +3.8% expected), so that’s slightly eased fears about a very strong print tomorrow. Nevertheless, even with the Spanish number, our European economists are still tracking the Euro Area CPI print at +2.53% year-on-year, up from +1.89% in February. See their weekly preview for more here.  

Elsewhere this week, there isn’t too much on the calendar of events as we move towards Easter. Indeed, markets will be closed in several countries at the end of the week for Good Friday. However, we will hear from a few central bankers, including Fed Chair Powell later today, who’s speaking in a discussion at Harvard University.

Finally, to recap last week in more depth, markets fluctuated back and forth amidst varying headlines on the Middle East. Initially there was huge optimism, driven by Trump’s statement last Monday that he’d be postponing military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for 5 days. So that caused Brent crude oil to fall -10.92% on Monday, closing back at $99.94/bbl. But as the week went on, fears mounted again about a protracted conflict, leaving Brent crude back up at $112.57/bbl, its highest close since July 2022 and narrowly up +0.34% on the week.

With no sign of oil prices falling back, equities took another hit last week for the most part, with the S&P 500 down -2.12% to a 7-month low. That marked its 5th consecutive weekly decline, as well as its biggest weekly loss since October. And the VIX index closed at 31.05pts, its highest since the Liberation Day turmoil last April. Matters weren’t helped by some weaker-than-expected data around the world, with the March flash PMIs generally coming in softer than expected. So the Euro Area composite PMI was down to a 10-month low of 50.5, and the US composite PMI hit an 11-month low of 51.4. Moreover, they also pointed to growing price pressures, which helped push yields on 10yr Treasuries up +4.8bps last week to 4.43%, whilst 10yr bund yields rose +5.1bps to a post-2011 high of 3.09%. That said, central bank pricing did turn marginally more dovish over the week as a whole. So for the Fed, a rate hike by the December meeting was down to a 24% probability, having been at 29% the week before. And for the ECB, a rate hike at the next meeting in April came down from an 80% probability to 52%. 

For equities, tech stocks struggled in particular, with the NASDAQ down -3.23% last week, marking its worst week since Liberation Day last year. Indeed, software stocks were a big driver, with that component of the S&P 500 down -7.00% last week as concerns about AI disruption resurfaced. Private credit fears also returned, particularly after Ares Management and Apollo both announced they were limiting withdrawals, which hit the shares of some of the companies in the space. To be fair, the European equity performance wasn’t so bad last week, with the STOXX 600 up +0.35%. But in credit the performance was more negative again, with US HY (+19bps) and Euro HY (+9bps) spreads both widening, whilst US IG (+2bps) and Euro IG (+4bps) spreads also rose.