Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. appeals court on June 18 revived a case against a COVID-19 vaccine mandate issued by a city in Washington state under a proclamation from state officials.

Firefighters who applied for exemptions to the Spokane mandate “plausibly assert that the individual city defendants applied the proclamation arbitrarily and capriciously, and that they thereby showed callous disregard to the firefighters’ Free Exercise rights,” U.S. Circuit Judge Ryan Nelson wrote in the ruling.

Spokane officials imposed the mandate on health care providers after Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, in a 2021 proclamation, ordered providers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Spokane firefighters have emergency medical technician licenses, so they fell under the mandate.

Firefighters who submitted exemptions on religious or medical grounds sued the city and state after the city refused to accommodate them. City officials said that employing unvaccinated personnel would delay emergency response times, posing a scenario where an unvaccinated technician was dispatched to a patient requiring hands-on care. The unvaccinated technician could not “safely … provide” the care, “negatively impact[ing] response time and likely requir[ing] the city to dispatch additional resources,” lawyers for the city said in a brief.

Dr. Joel Edminister, medical director for the Spokane Fire Department, said that science supported imposing the mandate to achieve herd immunity, pointing to a non-peer-reviewed paper from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that concluded, in one county in California for about two months, unvaccinated people comprised most of the known COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.

The firefighters disagreed. Some of them recovered from COVID-19, giving them immunity similar to that conferred by vaccination, they said in a brief. The city could have also accommodated them by moving them to different roles or requiring testing and masking in lieu of vaccination, they said.

Several neighboring cities granted accommodations to firefighters, plaintiffs noted, and under pre-existing agreements, those cities send firefighters to Spokane to work at certain times. That means Spokane firefighters were being treated differently than firefighters from outside the city, in violation of the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment, the firefighters said in their complaint.

U.S. District Judge Thomas Rice ruled in favor of the city and state officials in 2022. He said the mandate served “a legitimate government purpose, which is to slow the spread of COVID-19” and that the proclamation applied to all city employees, meaning it did not violate the 14th Amendment’s equal protection clause.

“Plaintiffs cannot overcome the Proclamation’s legitimate purpose with complaints that the availability of accommodations within the City of Spokane differ from those available elsewhere,” Judge Rice wrote.

That decision was erroneous, Judge Nelson, writing for a panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, said in the new ruling.

“Spokane implemented a vaccine policy from which it exempted certain firefighters based on a secular criterion—being a member of a neighboring department—while holding firefighters who objected to vaccination on purely religious grounds to a higher standard,” Judge Nelson wrote.

“Had Spokane subjected unvaccinated out-of-department firefighters to the same standard, its implementation of the vaccine policy might well be generally applicable. But that is not this case. By continuing to work with unvaccinated firefighters from surrounding departments, Spokane undermined its interest and destroyed any claim of general applicability.”

A policy must be shown to be neutral and generally applicable, or it is subject to the highest level of scrutiny by the courts.

Under that level of scrutiny, policies must be the least restrictive means of furthering a government interest.

The mandate was not the least restrictive means of stemming the spread of COVID-19, Judge Nelson said. The city, for instance, could have required testing and masking, or considered post-infection immunity, he wrote.

The appeals court reversed the lower court ruling and remanded the case back to Judge Rice.

“We are grateful for a very thoughtful opinion,” Nathan Arnold, an attorney representing the firefighters, told The Epoch Times via email. “We are pleased to have an opportunity to continue seeking redress for these public servants, and many other similarly situated individuals, in defense of their civil liberties.”

A lawyer for the defendants did not respond to a request for comment.

U.S. Circuit Judge Daniel Collins joined Judge Nelson. Judge Michael Daly Hawkins said in a dissent that he would have upheld Judge Rice’s ruling.

“The complaint also alleges that other cities and entities adopted different policies and the city defendants had pre-existing mutual aid agreements with some neighboring fire departments. The complaint then predicts that, as a result of those pre-existing mutual aid agreements, some unvaccinated firefighters from neighboring departments may operate within the city of Spokane,” he said.

“In my view, these allegations are insufficient to plausibly show that the proclamation, as implemented by the city defendants, is not neutral or generally applicable.”

Despite a solid bear steepener today – with Macros selling 10s in what may be an early frontrunning of the Norinchukin liquidation – Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes that the bank’s Treasury desk flows have continued to favor Customer buying of both rallies and dips, “particularly with foreign Real Money / Japan / Officials, and extending the recent theme where buying is pushing deeper into Duration (as expressed by the strong 30Y and 20Y auctions)…all a function of growing “Confidence in the Slowdown” which is coming just in time for the September, and why not, July Fed meeting so that Biden can enjoy at least 1-2 rate cuts ahead of the election.

Indeed, today’s mixed data extended on this “Slowdown / Normalizing” vibe, with Housing Starts / Building Permits plunging to Covid lockdown lows…

… while Initial and Continuing Claims continue their grind higher…

… yet at the same time, that uncomfortable – rather stagflationary – place too where Philly Fed Prices Paid actually moved higher again…

… despite the broader index tumbling back near to contraction territory.

Putting it all together, the US economy is clearly rolling over, and as the Bloomberg economic surprise index shows as it tumbles to a 5 year low, the magnitude of downside surprises across data are the largest since March 2019.

And to underscore the slowdown in the economy, McElligott notes that the bank’s “economic quadrant” has pushed back into 7 of the past 8 weeks after having spent a year in recovery.

And with the Atlanta Fed about to fade the recent dead cat bounce hard…

… the only question is does the number fade slowly but consistently by the July FOMC to leave the window open for an outside chance at a rate cut then, and an open door for a September cut which is now virtually assured, as the central bank will try to get at least one rate cut in the book before the Nov 5 elections, as the alternative are violent (i.e., sponsored by Soros) Antifa riots in the Marriner Eccles building, as the narrative then changes to Powell being the sole reason why Biden is about to lose to Trump.

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In the ongoing legal battle over alleged election interference in Arizona in 2022, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Geoffrey Fish issued a series of rulings this week denying motions to dismiss and motions to remand charges back to a state grand jury against Cochise County Supervisors Peggy Judd and Tom Crosby.

The rulings released on June 18 mean the case will proceed to trial.

Ms. Judd and Mr. Crosby are charged with conspiracy and interference with an election officer, both class 5 felonies.

The case stems from events following the 2022 general election in Arizona, when Ms. Judd and Mr. Crosby allegedly conspired to delay the canvassing of votes in Cochise County, prosecutors say.

According to the indictment, the defendants’ actions aimed to prevent the timely certification of the county’s election results, thereby obstructing the statewide canvass process.

Following the rulings, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes issued a statement reaffirming the seriousness of the charges and the state’s commitment to pursuing justice.

“This is a serious case, and the charges have merit,” Ms. Mayes stated in a press release. “Today’s ruling by the court supports that. While the defendants are innocent until proven guilty, as are all defendants in our criminal justice system, my office is prepared to move forward with this case and pursue justice for the people of Arizona.”

Ms. Judd and Mr. Crosby filed motions to remand their cases to a grand jury for a new determination of probable cause earlier this year.

They argued that the original grand jury proceedings were flawed, alleging that the state failed to properly instruct the grand jury on relevant legal standards, presented misleading testimony, and used privileged information improperly.

Judge Fish in his ruling stated that the grand jury was appropriately instructed and that the evidence presented did not constitute misleading testimony or misuse of privileged information.

The judge emphasized that the role of the grand jury is to determine whether probable cause exists to believe that a crime has been committed, not to conduct a mini-trial.

Motion to Dismiss Denied

The defendants also moved to dismiss the case, arguing that the state grand jury lacked jurisdiction under A.R.S. §21-422.

They claimed that the alleged crimes did not fall within the specific categories that a state grand jury is authorized to investigate and indict.

Judge Fish rejected this argument, stating that the actions of the defendants, if proven, constituted “intentional, knowing, or corrupt misconduct involving any person compensated by public funds,” which falls within the grand jury’s jurisdiction.

He further noted that the alleged interference took place in both Cochise and Maricopa counties, thus justifying the state grand jury’s involvement under the applicable statutes.

The defendants contended that their actions were protected by legislative immunity, asserting that their decisions regarding the canvassing process were legislative acts.

They argued that as elected officials, their votes and decisions on election matters were covered by legislative immunity, which shields legislators from prosecution for actions taken within their official legislative capacity.

However, Judge Fish dismissed this argument.

He explained that the act of canvassing election results is a mandatory, nondiscretionary function required by law, and failing to perform this duty does not qualify as a legislative act protected by immunity. Consequently, the court determined that legislative immunity did not apply to the defendants’ actions.

The court also addressed and dismissed several other defense arguments. These included claims that the statutes under which the defendants were charged were vague and that the conspiracy charge should only be prosecuted in Cochise County.

Judge Fish found that the statutes provided sufficient clarity to inform the defendants of the prohibited conduct and that the venue was appropriate due to the alleged impact on both Cochise and Maricopa counties.

Background on Allegations

The indictment alleges that between Oct. 11, 2022, and Dec. 1, 2022, Ms. Judd and Mr. Crosby conspired to delay the canvass of votes cast in Cochise County during the Nov. 8, 2022, general election.

In early October 2022, the defendants allegedly inquired about conducting a hand count of ballots for the upcoming election and were advised by the Cochise County Attorney’s Office that they lacked specific authority to conduct such a hand count.

Also in October, state Elections Director Kori Lorick informed the Cochise County Board of Supervisors (CCBS) that a full hand count would violate the Elections Procedure Manual.

Later that month, CCBS held a special hearing where they voted to conduct a hand count audit of all precincts, despite legal advice against it.

The day prior to the election, Judge Casey McGinley granted a preliminary injunction, enjoining the full hand count audit.

Two days after the election, Cochise County Attorney Brian McIntyre warned of potential criminal actions if an expanded hand count proceeded.

Ms. Judd and Mr. Crosby then filed a special action suit against Cochise County Elections Director Lisa Marra, alleging she refused to comply with the board’s commands.

In late November, CCBS allegedly delayed the certification of election results, prompting legal action from then-Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs’ office.

On Dec. 1, Judge McGinley ordered the immediate canvassing of the election results, which Ms. Judd and Election Board Chair Ann English complied with, submitting the results to the secretary of state.

The indictment further alleges that from Nov. 14 to Nov. 28, 2022, they knowingly interfered with election officers’ duties, thereby preventing the timely transmission of the county’s election results to Ms. Hobbs’ office.

A pretrial conference is scheduled for Aug. 8, with the trial tentatively set to begin Aug. 15.

Authored by Connor Freeman via AntiWar.com,

Journalists and media groups have come under intense pressure from the Kiev regime, including spying and other forms of persecution during Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to the New York Times. Reporters have been spied on and even presented with draft notices after exposing media restrictions imposed by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. In addition to Zelensky calling off elections and staying in power well past the end of his term, this is more evidence that Kiev is not the democratic bastion its Western military backers claim it is.

Following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Zelensky nationalized the country’s media, among other authoritarian measures such as banning opposition parties. According to the NYT, Ukrainian journalists mostly went along with the wartime restrictive measures, that entailed prohibiting, among other things, the publication of locations where Russian missile strikes have taken place, accounts of military casualties, and reports on Ukrainian troop movements or positions.

Self-censorship has also become common, local reporters told NYT, as journalists have been “holding back on critical coverage of the government to avoid undermining morale or to prevent reports of corruption from dissuading foreign partners from approving aid.”

In addition to whitewashing the failures of Ukraine’s war, which it is fighting as a proxy for NATO, analysts say the pressure is “aimed at crimping positive coverage of the opposition and suppressing negative coverage of the government and the military.”

Journalists working for Ukrinform, an ostensibly non-partisan state news agency, were furnished with a list from their higher-ups late last year, telling them which local elected officials and opposition figures were “undesirable” and thus should not be quoted in articles. The NYT reviewed the instructions, reporting that it “blacklisted elected officials and civil society activists, including some military veterans.”

The paper went on to highlight several abuses of power under Zelensky’s rule, including the SBU – Kiev’s domestic spy service – surveilling the staff of an investigative news outlet through peepholes in their hotel rooms. “In January, it emerged that Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency, the S.B.U., had secretly filmed reporters attending the holiday party of an investigative news site, Bihus, by drilling peepholes into coat racks in the hotel rooms where they were staying.”

Another example of media suppression occurred in the Chernihiv region, where a local city council was disputing municipal spending with a governor that Zelensky appointed. The state news agency guided its reporters to not quote a council member, the acting mayor, because he was deemed an “undesirable.”

Yuriy Stryhun, a regional Ukrinform reporter, revealed “the desirable speaker was appointed by Zelensky, the undesirable speaker was elected.” On May 30, 57-year-old Stryhun spoke about the restrictive guidance on Suspilne, a public broadcaster. The following day he was presented with a notice to renew his draft registration; Stryhun noted the “suspicious” timing.

“It is not democratic to dictate to media what to publish and whom to talk to,” said Maryna Synhaivska, former deputy director of Ukrinform. She resigned her post over the government meddling.

The NYT adds, “In the city of Odesa, reporters were instructed to cite only presidential appointees in some cases. In Lviv, reporters were told to avoid quoting the elected mayor, Andriy Sadovyi, a prominent politician seen as a possible future candidate for the presidency.”

over past few years, Ukraine has banned or suppressed opposition media. On the day that Gonzalo Lira is arrested, we are informed that “press freedom” in Ukraine has improved. The volume of BS is a tsunami. https://t.co/RlXFF2kqTI pic.twitter.com/rBbou4GRbM

— Stephen McIntyre (@ClimateAudit) May 6, 2023

After the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s previously “raucous and competitive television news landscape” was subsumed under a solitary state-controlled broadcaster known as Telemarathon. It eliminated opposition channels and now runs “such consistently upbeat reports even as fighting bogged down that a majority of Ukrainians now say they do not trust it,” the Times report reads.

Detector Media, a Ukrainian media watchdog group, calculated that during the first four months of this year, Zelensky’s Servant of the People party comprised roughly 70% of the political guests on Telemarathon despite holding just over half the parliamentary seats.

By Israel’s official tally there should be 116 Israeli hostages still in Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip, but new statements issued by US intelligence officials say the number of captives still alive might be as low as 50. Initially, about 250 were taken captive during the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terror attack of Oct.7.

The Wall Street Journal writes, citing a new intel review of the situation, “That assessment, based in part on Israeli intelligence, would mean 66 of those still held hostage could be dead, 25 more than Israel has publicly acknowledged.” The hostages have been held for 258 days at this point.

Of the eight captives with American citizenship (dual nationals), three were previously reported by Israel to be deceased. The fact that there are Americans among the hostages has received relatively little mainstream media attention.

Still, hostage and ceasefire talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt have failed to move forward, and the situation remains dire given there could be more hostages lost by the day, with Hamas maintaining its position that it doesn’t actually know how many still remain given there’s a grinding war on in the Strip. Hamas officials have blamed unrelenting Israeli airstrikes for killing off many hostages.

“The number of hostages alive or dead has been an issue in cease-fire talks brokered by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar,” WSJ continues. “As part of a deal, hostages would likely be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Israel was initially unwilling to accept dead bodies to meet the number of hostages required to be released in the first phase of any deal, but its latest proposal presented to Hamas says it would accept dead bodies.”

The Netanyahu government’s lack of progress on getting the hostages released through negotiations has continued to drive large-scale protests, including a violent one earlier in the week in front of Netanyahu’s residence in Jerusalem, resulting in nine arrests.

Currently tensions are soaring between military leaders and PM Netanyahu, following Wednesday remarks of military spokesman Daniel Hagari, who asserted that Hamas can not be completely be rooted out because it is “an ideology”. This was seen as a direct contradiction of Netanyahu’s vow to not stop until the group is eradicated.

“This business of destroying Hamas, making Hamas disappear — it’s simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public,” Hagari had explained in an Israeli Channel 13 news interview. “Hamas is an idea, Hamas is a party. It’s rooted in the hearts of the people — anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong.”

Netanyahu’s office quickly responded, pointing out that this precisely remains the war’s goal. The statement said the security cabinet “has defined as one of the war goals the destruction of Hamas’s military and governance capabilities.” It emphasized, “The Israel Defense Forces is of course committed to this.”

Their only son has been held hostage for 257 days
Watch the full video here: https://t.co/epcsXvwJ0h pic.twitter.com/NpNvyzCHGu

— The Lead CNN (@TheLeadCNN) June 19, 2024

Retired Israeli General Israel Ziv commented in a US media interview that Israeli military leaders feel they have “exhausted the purpose of the war” and have reached a “tactical peak”.

“We are getting close to finishing the job defined by the government and we’ll reach a point when we’re just fighting guerrilla warfare, and that could take years,” Ziv described.

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The inflation of the past three years has been devastating for households and businesses running on small margins. It’s all the more frustrating that during those years, we kept being told that it is transitory, softening, calming, cooling, settling down, and essentially not much of a problem anymore. We look back and know now that it was never true.

In reality, three years is a very short time for a major currency to lose at least a quarter of its domestic purchasing power. In the postwar period, it took from the war’s end until 1965 for that to happen. This was also the loss from 1982 to 1992, from 1992 to 2000, and from 2001 to 2012.

That’s hardly a record of stable money, but it is manageable, from the standpoint of accounting and psychology. We were used to it.

What’s happened to the dollar over the past three years is a more extreme loss than anything experienced since the late 1970s. Back then, the dollar lost a quarter of its value between 1975 and 1979, which roughly fits with current experience.

Keep in mind that the current numbers are likely underestimated because they exclude interest rates and completely miscalculate categories such as rent and health insurance (do you believe that health insurance costs less today than in 2018?). Moreover, the inflation index cannot account for the full impact of shrinkflation, quality changes, and hidden fees.

In any case, and even using conventional numbers, the bad news is that the dollar of 1913 has a purchasing power of about 3 cents today.

(Data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed; Chart: Jeffrey A. Tucker)

Any purchasing power loss sets in motion a gravitational pull against living standards. It means working harder, scrambling more, adding income to the household revenue stream, and otherwise never quite getting ahead. It also eats into savings by punishing rather than rewarding thrift as should be the case.

But for this to happen in such a short period of time from 2021 to the present is extremely damaging to economic structures. It also damages our understanding of the world around us.

You know this feeling. Not long ago, when you were out shopping, you had a sense if something was a bargain or a ripoff, overpriced or underpriced, something to snap up or leave on the table. Now, everything seems too expensive, but you cannot know for sure.

I see people all the time at the store who pick up an item, look at the price in shock, pull out their phones to price compare, discover that it is pretty much in line with market standards, decide whether they must have the thing, and then reluctantly put it in their cart with some element of disgust.

Inflation turns the once-happy experience of being out and about in the commercial marketplace into a grind and an annoyance. For many people, it is utterly terrifying because they are having a hard time staying ahead no matter what.

Have you ever been in a foreign country, using an unfamiliar currency, and attempted to haggle with a vendor on the street? It is extremely disorienting simply because you are out of your element. You don’t know if you are getting a good deal or being pillaged. This is because the prices you are quoted are detached from any context that you know.

Inflation brings this problem home. Suddenly, everything feels unfamiliar and you lose your footing. Societies that have dealt with extreme versions of hyperinflation like Weimar in 1922 utterly fall apart. We are nowhere close to that problem but still experience elements of the results. Even inflation on our current level can usher in dramatic social and cultural changes: It was the inflation of the 1970s that converted U.S. households from one income to two (and now three).

Now imagine this problem from the point of view of a business manager. Every good or service you need for your business is nothing but up in price. It blows up the accounting ledger. And your employees are demanding more, not only to pay their own bills but also because they know of another firm vying for their services.

Well-heeled and highly capitalized businesses fare much better in this environment. Those living off credit, paying high rates, and running very thin margins lose out to the competition that is in a better financial position. The pain is intensified given that in the year before the great inflation began, many small businesses were forcibly closed by the government in the name of stopping a virus.

Having barely gotten through that period, they then faced a barrage of other absurdities. They dealt with capacity restrictions, supply-chain breakages, and then mask mandates on employees and customers. Following that, there was a looming threat, emanating from a Biden administration edict that was later reversed by the court, to make their employees take an experimental shot.

The wounds of this period are still obvious everywhere, but life didn’t return to normal. Instead, this inflation began, which hit the core of business operations in other ways.

Every business facing inflation has to figure out the key issue: how to absorb the blow. End-user consumers must face higher prices, but how high can they go before a quiet revolt begins to happen? Contrary to what you hear, no business wants to raise its prices on the consumer (there are some exceptions for luxury goods and so on, but this is hardly the norm). They do not like making their customers unhappy.

There have been some innovations in how this hot potato gets passed on. It can come in the form of smaller portions and packages, ingredients of lesser quality, or new fees snuck in here and there. Many restaurants found that they have far more flexibility in raising prices on beer, wine, and cocktails because these are things that people get regardless and are unused to examining the price structure of carefully before purchasing.

This worked for a while, but it is not a complete solution. Plus, the public has become newly aware of these fees. They start to infuriate people who incorrectly blame the business rather than the inflation itself. The Biden administration has even begun a kind of verbal war against fees, threatening to turn regulators loose on the problem.

For the most part, people take for granted the existence and meaning of prices and the information they convey. The network of pricing structures governs our lives in ways we do not entirely notice.

Think of your own consumption habits. For generations now, Americans habitually go through vast amounts of paper towels to clean every spill and wipe every counter. We think nothing of it. But if those towel rolls were $15 each, think what that would do to your kitchen habits. You would likely discover the merit of cloth towels. It would change everything.

This once-small example pertains to vast amounts of your life. We go through toothpaste like it is nothing, but if the tubes were $50 each, you would see people suddenly discover the merits of straight baking soda, which is a fraction of the price, cleans as well or better, and lasts far longer.

In a complex modern economy with elaborate capital structures, prices serve as information-generating systems for the world that allow for rational use of resources throughout the whole of the production structure.

Without them, we would all be flying blind, producers and consumers alike. Accounting would be impossible and hence there would be no chance for rational calculation. Economizing would become hopeless. The societies that have variously attempted to implement what’s called “socialism”—meaning the abolition of ownership and market-based exchange of capital goods—have discovered that the result is nothing but chaos.

Every systemwide hit to the price system is an attack on economic rationality. Socialism as a system is one version, but there are many others. Price controls rob producers and consumers of valuable information they need for business. These take many forms; for example, minimum wage laws that force people out of the job market and make it impossible for businesses to operate, as we are seeing in California today.

Inflation also amounts to an attack on the functionality of prices themselves. With stable money, prices work as guides to action, tools of rationality, points of connection between people who otherwise do not know each other, and as building blocks of a global communication network that requires no central management.

Blowing up the price system and distorting it with inflationary pressures reduces its ability to make our lives better and eats away at productivity. It’s just another form of robbery. For this to hit just after lockdowns is a deep attack on U.S. economic vitality. We’ll all be paying a heavy price for many years.

After a few strong months of hope-filled renaissance, the Philly Fed business outlook plunged in June with both the current and forward-looking activity indicators dropping significantly (but the Philly Fed notes optimistically, remaining positive)…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was even uglier, with new orders recording a second consecutive negative reading in June, and the current shipments index fell 6 points to -7.2, its lowest reading since December.

On balance, the firms continued to report a decline in employment.

Source: Bloomberg

However, most worrisome, Philly Fed firms surveyed reported significant increases in prices overall in June.

The prices paid index rose 4 points to 22.5. Almost 26 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices (up from 19 percent last month), while 3 percent reported decreases (up from 0 percent); 71 percent reported no change (down from 78 percent). The current prices received index increased 7 points to 13.7. Nearly 14 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, no firm reported decreases, and 86 percent reported no change.

Source: Bloomberg

The future new orders index fell 24 points to 16.2, and the future shipments index dropped 46 points to -0.1…

Source: Bloomberg

The question is – will the message of soaring price expectations get through to the voting members? Or will expectations for plummeting new orders dominate their thinking?

Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClearPolitics,

Donald Trump is a master showman and marketer. He demonstrated those skills once again with his proposal to kill the tax on tips. It’s more than shrewd. It’s brilliant.

After the hoorays from waiters and other service workers died down, political analysts weighed in. Their conclusion: this is a very smart way to gain an edge in Nevada, where the presidential race is close. That’s certainly true. But Trump’s proposal is much smarter and will have a bigger impact, not because of its impact on tips, as such, but because of the larger signal it sends. That signal says to lower-income workers across the country, “I understand your struggles, and I’m with you.”

Trump’s proposal says that loud and clear. It is both a blow to the IRS (who doesn’t like that?) and a tangible demonstration of how the former president connects to everyday working people. That’s a much broader cohort than the folks who rely on tips.

President Biden has emphasized his own connection to working people. He does it every time he calls himself “Scranton Joe,” and says he was raised by every group in town except the Hmong and Aboriginal Australians. (Those groups surely would be included if they had enough voters in swing states.)

This contest for the allegiance of the working class is central to American politics and has been since the days of Andrew Jackson. They have been central to the Democratic Party’s coalition since Franklin Roosevelt’s reelection in 1936. FDR solidified the party’s coalition. Every successful Democrat on the national level since then has counted on the working-class vote – and the ones who didn’t (most notably Adlai Stevenson in 1956 and George McGovern in 1972) lost in landslides.

Ronald Reagan, who’d been a New Deal Democrat as a young man mounted a frontal assault against the FDR alliance and launched a long-term shift in the process. Donald Trump has gone further. He has captured that constituency among whites, competes for them among Hispanics, and is eroding it, at least slightly, among black men. That shift in all three groups could have a huge impact in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, and Arizona. This year’s election may well hinge on them, and even slight changes could alter the outcome.

Trump’s challenge to the heart of the old Democratic coalition is part of a larger realignment in American voting patterns. That realignment is obvious in the wealthy suburbs, which have gradually switched from moderate Republican to moderate Democrat. The wedge issue there is the Republican Party’s social conservatism, which alienates more than it resonates in those areas.

The suburbs are up for grabs this year because of weak economic performance, persistent problems with public schools (which are linked to Democrats because of the party’s bond with teachers’ unions), and the Democratic Party’s move much further left. No matter how the suburbs vote this year, though, their longer-term shift is clear.

An equally clear shift in the opposite direction is happening in working-class neighborhoods. Chicagoans call them the “bungalow belt.” They were once occupied by immigrants from Eastern Europe. They are now the home of second- and third-generation Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, and pilgrims from Central America. Trump is emerging as an unlikely champion of that constituency. He knows they don’t want ideological indoctrination in public schools or control by teachers’ unions instead of parents. They want cheaper energy a lot more than they want electric vehicles, which are too expensive. And they damn sure don’t want some bureaucrat in Bethesda telling them they can’t cook on a gas stove. They recoil at the idea of non-elected officials pushing that agenda down their throats.

Their resistance is part of a broader, more populist movement. It’s much different from the traditional constituency behind the Republican push for lower taxes and less regulation. That old constituency is no longer in the control of the party. Trump’s leadership makes that clear.

It doesn’t seem to be clear to Democratic campaign consultants, though. They are saying what they always have: “Republicans are just out to help the rich.” It’s not working this year. Why not? Because Donald J. Trump is not George H. W. Bush, and Trump’s party is not Bush’s. Try as they might, Democrats cannot convince voters that Trump is Richie Rich, that he looks down on them, or wants to line his friends’ pockets at their expense. Democrats can’t make those labels stick to today’s Republican Party, either. It has become a populist, working-class party – and voters can see it.

Democrats respond that Trump is a billionaire. He is, of course, but that label hasn’t damaged him for a couple of reasons. The first is his personality. He effectively presents himself as an ordinary guy who connects easily with ordinary people. He knows how to entertain them and demonstrates it every time he walks on stage. Second, he didn’t make his money as a banker, stock trader, or middleman. He did something tangible working people can relate to: he built buildings. They may have been high-income residences and golf clubs, but those are Trump’s consumers, not Trump himself. It is simply impossible to label the former president as a country club Republican who looks down on the peasantry. Voters certainly don’t think see him that way. A lot of them think, “Hey, he’s doing just what I’d do if I had his money. I’d fly in my own plane, put my name on it, and eat as many Big Macs as I want. And I would tip the poor guy or gal who works behind the counter. What a lousy job.”

That brings us to the cherry on top of Trump’s “no tax on tips” idea. He’s telling people to write that message on their bills when they pay them. That’s another ingenious ploy. It directly engages consumers (who are voters, of course) and lets them demonstrate their support for both service workers and Trump. Who doesn’t want to put in a kind word for the people serving them? Trump has not only made that easy to do, he’s made it clear that doing so puts the consumer on his side. They don’t have to wear a MAGA hat to do it.

It’s a small ball in a bigger game. But it will matter if the election is close. And it demonstrates, once again, why Trump’s intuitive grasp of marketing and glad-hand showmanship give him a huge advantage. His challenge now is to stay disciplined, and not shoot himself in the tip.

Charles Lipson is the Peter B. Ritzma Professor of Political Science Emeritus at the University of Chicago, where he founded the Program on International Politics, Economics, and Security. He can be reached at charles.lipson@gmail.com.

Malaysia Airlines confirmed to local media outlet Malay Mail that a Boeing 737-800 was forced to make an emergency landing shortly after takeoff due to an engine malfunction. The mid-air incident comes only days after outgoing CEO Dave Calhoun testified on Capitol Hill about ongoing investigations into the planemaker’s quality oversight and production failures of its commercial jets. 

The Malaysian airline said Flight MH199 was taking off from Rajiv Gandhi International Airport in Hyderabad, India, late Thursday when an engine malfunction caused one of the 737-800’s engines to erupt into flames.

The pilot in command of the plane was forced to return to the airport. 

Footage of the engine malfunction was captured on passengers’ smartphones and uploaded on X. The video is horrifying!  

“Witness reports indicate that sparks were seen coming from one of two the engines on the Boeing 738 aircraft,” Malay Mail said. 

#Malaysian flight MH199 from #Hyderabad to #KualaLumpur catches fire 15 minutes after takeoff.

For the latest news and updates, visit: https://t.co/by4FF5o0Ew pic.twitter.com/nyo8tFQZ5c

— NDTV Profit (@NDTVProfitIndia) June 20, 2024

Malaysia Airlines confirmed the plane landed safely back at Rajiv Gandhi International Airport, and all passengers and crew were unharmed. Flight tracking websites, such as Flightradar24, also confirmed the plane landed safely. 

“Affected passengers will be reallocated to other flights for their continued journey. The aircraft is currently on the ground for further inspection,” the airline wrote in a statement.

We wonder if CEO Calhoun’s assistant has supplied him with the news headlines surrounding today’s incident.

In what seems like weekly mid-air mishaps with Boeing jets and developments surrounding new or ongoing investigations into these jets, the public’s trust in the planemaker severely wanes. 

The Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates on Thursday for the second time this year, pointing to easing price pressures that allowed it to maintain its position as the front-runner in the global policy easing cycle now underway.

The Swiss franc, which had soared in the past three weeks after the shocking result from the European parliament elections hammered the Euro, weakened against other currencies and stocks gained after the central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, as expected by two-thirds of analysts polled by Bloomberg, following a quarter-point reduction in March.

The SNB’s decision had been “finely balanced”, similar to the BOE’s decision to not cut rates, given a recent rebound in economic growth and a break in the trend of gently falling inflation in Switzerland.

“The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter,” SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said. “With today’s lowering of the SNB policy rate, we are able to maintain appropriate monetary conditions.”

Jordan pointed to the SNB’s inflation forecasts, which were tweaked downwards and enabled the reduction in interest rates. While everyone knows how accurate central bank predictions are, even at the furthest end of its forecasts – covering the first quarter of 2027 – the SNB now expects inflation at 1.0%, well within its 0-2% target range.

With the updated language in the Monetary Policy Assessment, which states that “with today’s lowering of the SNB policy rate, the SNB is able to maintain appropriate monetary conditions” and an estimate of the neutral rate at around 1.25%, Goldman maintains its view that today’s cut is likely to be the end of the SNB’s easing cycle.

UBS, however, disagrees and points out that the SNB said that without this rate cut, the inflation forecasts would have been lower: “That suggests by the time of the next meeting, inflation forecasts will be lower without another cut; there was no change in the language to suggest a pause is coming up. Before this decision, UBS Economics had expected a cut in June and one more in September, to lower the base rate to 1%.“

The recent rise of the Swiss franc, driven by rising political uncertainty in Europe pushing investors towards the safe haven currency, was also highlighted by Jordan. The franc has gained 4.5% against the euro in the past month on political concerns, including the upcoming French elections, which could see the far right win power. The SNB was paying close attention, Jordan said.

“We are ready to be active on the foreign exchange market and that can go in both directions,” he told reporters.

According to Reuters, various factors lie behind Switzerland’s low price pressures, including an energy mix that makes the country less exposed to oil and gas costs, wage restraint, and protection against imported price inflation from the strong franc.

Here are the three main points on the rate cut according to Goldman:

1. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised consensus expectations again and delivered another 25bp cut to 1.25%, in line with our forecast. The language around FX interventions was left unchanged, with the Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA) noting that the SNB remains willing to be active in FX market “as necessary”.
2. Exhibit 1 shows the new conditional inflation forecast, which was revised down slightly on account of weaker second-round effects (-0.1pp to 1.3% in 2024, -0.1pp to 1.1% in 2025, -0.1pp to 1.0% in 2026). The SNB reiterated its GDP growth forecast of “around 1%” for 2024 in the latest MPA. Looking ahead, the SNB expects unemployment to continue to rise gradually and capacity utilisation to decline somewhat further.
   
3. With the new inflation projections, the stress on underlying inflationary pressure, and updated language in the MPA, which states that “with today’s lowering of the SNB policy rate, the SNB is able to maintain appropriate monetary conditions”, we see today’s cut as the end of the SNB’s easing cycle. Given our estimate of the neutral rate at around 1.25%, we continue to expect them to remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, barring any unforeseen developments at home or abroad.

ING economist Peter Vanden Houte said the rate cut was not a big surprise given the recent strengthening of the franc.

“With decent Swiss GDP growth in the first quarter there was no real urgency for the SNB to cut rates, but given the still benign inflation outlook the SNB saw a window to ease,” said Vanden Houte. “For the SNB it was more a rate cut because it could, not because it should.”

Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank Group, said the SNB had done the right thing by lowering rates again. Had it not, “it could have created the impression the SNB was unsure about its key interest rate reduction in March.”

All aboard the cutting train

Cooling inflation allowed the SNB to become the first major central bank to lower rates at its last meeting. It has since been followed by the ECB, which last week cut rates for the first time in five years. Canadian and Swedish central banks have also started to bring down borrowing costs that were lifted to tackle the post-pandemic inflation surge. The U.S. Federal Reserve last week, however, held rates steady and pushed out the start of rate cuts to later this year.

Economists said that Thursday’s cut narrowed the scope for more easing for the Swiss central bank, with one more quarter-point move in September a possibility, but not a given.

“With the latest rate cut, the policy rate is now closer to its terminal value, which we estimate at 1.00%,” said Maxime Botteron, economist at UBS in Zurich, referring to a potential end point of the current easing cycle. “This means that the potential for additional cuts is limited.”