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Swiss Summit Says Ukraine’s ‘Territorial Integrity’ Must Be Basis Of Any Peace

Swiss Summit Says Ukraine’s ‘Territorial Integrity’ Must Be Basis Of Any Peace

Sunday’s major Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland, where some 100 countries were represented, has rejected the conditions named by Russia’s Vladimir Putin for immediately ending the war.

A final document produced by the summit, which 78 of the countries signed off on, asserted that the basis of any future Ukraine-Russia peace deal to end the war must preserve the “territory integrity” of Ukraine.

Via AFP

Referencing the UN charter, the document lays out that “respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty … can and will serve as a basis for achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.”

“We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties,” it additionally said.

While the vast majority of countries agreed to the document, the representatives of India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates did not sign it, according to The Associated Press.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressed the conditions for peace that Putin spelled out at the end of last week, saying:

“It was not a peace negotiation because Putin is not serious about ending the war. He is insisting on capitulation. He is insisting on ceding Ukrainian territory — even territory that today is not occupied by him,” she said.

“He is insisting on disarming Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to future aggression. No country would ever accept these outrageous terms.”

She was referencing his Friday televised address wherein the Russian leader said, “Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Luhansk People’s Republic, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.” Putin also stipulated a second main condition for ending the war: Ukraine must reject ambitions to join the NATO alliance

“As soon as Kyiv says it is ready to do this and begins really withdrawing troops and officially renounces plans to join NATO, we will immediately — literally that very minute — cease-fire and begin talks,” Putin said in the talk given to a gathering of his foreign ministry officials. But leaders gathered in Switzerland over the weekend, including Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni, rejected Putin’s overture as but “propaganda”.

Both Russia and China have suggested that the two-day peace conference being held in Burgenstock is futile without Russia’s presence and participation, and is ultimately but a PR stunt.

Meanwhile an interesting and awkward moment last week at the G7 summit in Italy…

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the outcome of the summit on Sunday. He said, “We’ll prove to everyone in the world that the UN Charter can be restored to full effectiveness.” He said of countries which have yet to sign on to the final document may still do so as it is ‘open’… “Even countries that are now thinking to join it have consultations ongoing in their respective countries,” Zelensky announced.

Given that G7 leaders have also this weekend agreed to more long term funding for Ukraine, to the tune of $50 billion and while using some $280 billion in frozen Russian assets to do it, the prospect of legitimate peace negotiations now seem as far away as ever.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 20:25

20% Of California Lives In Poverty; What’s Going On?

20% Of California Lives In Poverty; What’s Going On?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

On a cost-adjusted basis, California leads the nation in percentage living in poverty.

Blame the Progressive oligarchs like Governor Newsom.

Unemployment rates from the BLS through April. State level data lags by one month. Chart by Mish.

Warning to the World

Spiked makes a strong case that a dominant class of oligarchs and woke bureaucrats has bled the Golden State dry. It’s a Warning to the World.

Many still see California as the home of a ‘new progressive era’. It is often viewed as an exemplar of social equity, one that reflects, as a New York Times column put it, ‘the shared values of our increasingly tolerant and pluralistic society’. In truth, far from embodying an egalitarian ethos, it is pioneering a new kind of almost feudal society. A relative handful of oligarchs and a vast bureaucratic ‘clerisy’ lord it over a massive class of what are essentially serfs.

California is not only home to by far the highest number of billionaires in the US. But it also suffers the highest proportion of Americans living in poverty and the widest gap between middle- and upper-middle-income earners of any state. It endures among the US’ highest rates of unemployment, as well as massive net outmigration, an exodus that has increased sharply since 2019. It also has 30 per cent of the nation’s homeless population, with some now living in ‘furnished’ caves.

Even without adjusting for costs, no Californian metro area ranks in the US top 10 in terms of well-paying, blue-collar jobs. But four – Ventura, Los Angeles, San Jose and San Diego – sit among the bottom 10.

Gavin Newsom, California’s governor and prince of the oligarchic elite, seems determined to double down on his attempt to shape California as the model for the ‘progressive’ future. ‘Unlike the Washington plutocracy’, he proclaims, ‘California isn’t satisfied serving a powerful few on one side of the velvet rope’.

Such rhetoric crashes against reality. Newsom’s high-taxregulation-heavy regime is driving enormous poverty. The state’s ethnic-minority communities are suffering most. Ignoring the interests of these people, California legislators and regulators enact proposals for the almost total elimination of fossil fuels. 

This, as attorney Jennifer Hernandez explains, has created a kind of ‘green Jim Crow’ that disproportionately hurts working-class, ethnic-minority families. Californians have the highest energy prices in the continental US and energy poverty is particularly rife among the heavily Latino inland areas. Recently, the California Air Resources Board, the primary executor of California’s climate policies, projected that these policies will result in significant income declines for individuals earning less than $100,000 annually, while boosting incomes for those above this threshold.

Rather than address class issues, California’s progressive project focusses on issues like gender, abortion and race. All provide excellent ways to virtue-signal without threatening the ruling cabal of the oligarchical elite, the government bureaucracy and the political class. This has led California to pass such measures as mandates for stores to have gender-neutral toy sections and allowing children to change genders without parental approval.

But it is the race card that California’s feudalists rely on most to appeal to both the guilt-ridden white progressives, as well as the non-white majority. Their regulatory and tax policies may undermine the aspirations of minorities, notably Latinos and African Americans, but they offer support for race-based affirmative-action measures. This is despite the fact that Californian voters have twice rejected such efforts by wide margins.

This hasn’t stopped the state’s nine-member Reparations Task Force. Last month, it recommended state payments of $223,200 to black descendants of slaves living in California. The bill for this could top $569 billion. Equally terrifying, the Racial Justice Act 2020 came into effect in California this year, allowing anyone serving time for a felony to retroactively challenge their conviction and sentencing, on the basis of systemic racial bias. This will essentially allow race to become a major deciding factor in convicting and sentencing criminals in California.

Today, even in face of a record $68 billion deficit and a weak economy, the state’s political establishment seems reluctant to curb its spending or regulatory impulses.

Rather than change course, Newsom and his allies employ budget tricks to deal with the deficit. The governor has even blamed climate change for much of the problem. California’s Democrats are not remotely serious about fixing the budget. Redistribution continues to ace out wealth creation, as epitomised by a pledge to provide undocumented immigrants, hard-working or not, with free healthcare. Meanwhile, middle- and working-class Californians pay ever higher premiums.

These new costs are being imposed even as the high-tech industries keeping California’s economy afloat are beginning to erode. 

Dissatisfaction with these and other state policies is becoming more widespread. In one recent survey of California opinion, some 57 per cent said the state was headed in the wrong direction, up from 37 per cent in 2020. Residents of most states hold positive feelings for their state, but not in California, where four in 10 people are considering an exit.

As for the Republicans, the road to resurgence is filled with boulders, many of which are of the party’s own making. The potential is there. Barely 40 per cent of Latinos surveyed recently thought the Democrats were best suited to meeting the state’s challenges.

Such multi-racial coalitions will be critical. California’s future preeminence can only be assured if we return to the kind of common sense, growth-oriented politics that served it so well in the past. The Golden State was once the world’s epicentre of human aspiration. We can’t just surrender it to the neo-feudalists.

The Path to National Ruin

If you live in California and vote for Progressives, you deserve what’s happening. The problem, of course, is the rest of the state does not deserve the madness you impose.

Going one step further, if you are also for slave reparations in a state that never had slaves, then you deserve to lose your house to someone clearly more deserving than you. At a cost of $569 billion, the only way to pay these reparations is for people to be taxed out of their homes.

What’s happening in California is also playing out in Illinois led by Progressive governor J. B. Pritzker.

At the city level look at policies by Chicago by mayor Brandon Johnson, New York City mayor Eric Adams, Boston mayor Michelle Wu, and San Francisco mayor London Breed.

“Wu has argued for charges including shoplifting and disorderly conduct to be beyond the reach of prosecutors along with other serious crimes including the receiving of stolen property and even driving with a suspended license.”

There are too many Progressive idiots to name them all.

February 4, 2024: Cost of Running a McDonalds Jumps $250,000 in CA Due to Minimum Wage Hikes

March 26,2024: California Restaurants Cut Jobs as Fast-Food Wages Set to Rise

March 30, 2024: California’s Deficit Is $222 Billion and the State is $1.6 Trillion in Debt

April 6, 2024: California Bill Would Create a Legal Right to Ignore Boss’s Emails After hours

Congratulations Overdue

Apologies offered. I failed to congratulate California when it passed Washington D.C. to take the highest unemployment rate in the nation.

California Leads the Nation in New Unemployment Claims

Also note the surge in unemployment claims is led by California.

On June 13, 2024 I noted Initial Unemployment Claims Jump the Most Since August 2023

Congratulations to Newsom

Rubio’s went bankrupt in 2020 thanks to Newsom’s covid lockdowns.

Then in 2024, Newsom bankrupted the chain again.

What other governors can make such a claim?

What Happened to the Biden Surge After Trump Was Convicted?

For those who missed it, please see What Happened to the Biden Surge After Trump Was Convicted?

If Biden were to win, promotion of economically insane policies, reparations, and bailouts of states like California and Illinois would be in the cards. That is what’s at stake in the election, but few see it.

If that isn’t the future you would like for the US, then think about how you vote.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 19:50

“No Place In The Public Discourse”: The Connecticut Bar Association Warns Critics Of Trump Prosecutions

“No Place In The Public Discourse”: The Connecticut Bar Association Warns Critics Of Trump Prosecutions

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This week, I have received emails from Connecticut bar members over a message posted by President Maggie Castinado, President-Elect James T. (Tim) Shearin, and Vice President Emily A. Gianquinto warning them about criticizing the prosecutions of former President Donald Trump. The message from the bar leadership is chilling for those lawyers who view cases like the one in Manhattan as a raw political prosecution. While the letter does not outright state that such criticism will be considered unethical conduct, it states that the criticism has “no place in the public discourse” and calls on members to speak publicly in support of the integrity of these legal proceedings.

The statement begins by warning members that “words matter” but then leaves the ramifications for bar members dangling on how it might matter to them. They simply note that some comments will be viewed as “cross[ing] the line from criticism to dangerous rhetoric.”

According to the Connecticut Bar, it is now considered reckless and unprofessional to make analogies to show trials or to question the integrity of the legal system or the judges in such cases.

For example, criticizing Judge Juan Merchan for refusing to recuse from the case is considered beyond the pale. Many lawyers believe that his political contributions to Biden and his daughter’s major role as a Democratic fundraiser and activist should have prompted Merchan to remove himself (and any appearance of a conflict). I have been more critical of his rulings, which I believe were both biased and wrong.

Yet, the Bar is warning lawyers that such comments can cross the line. The letter assures members that they are free to criticize but warn that attacking the ethics of a judge or the motivations behind these cases is dangerous and could spark violence.

I have previously denounced overheated rhetoric and share the concern over how such rage rhetoric can encourage violence. After the verdict, I immediately encouraged people not to yield to their anger, but to trust our legal system. I believe that the verdict in New York may ultimately be overturned. I also noted that I do not blame the jury but rather the judge and the prosecutors for an unfounded and unfair trial.

Of course, the concern over rage rhetoric runs across our political spectrum. While rarely criticized in the media, we have seen an escalation of reckless rhetoric from the left. For example,  Georgetown Law Professor Josh Chafetz declared that “when the mob is right, some (but not all!) more aggressive tactics are justified.”

My concern is not with the plea for lawyers to take care that their comments do not encourage such “aggressive tactics.” The problem is the suggestion that lawyers are acting somehow unprofessionally in denouncing what many view as a two-tier system of justice and the politicalization of our legal system.

Like many, I believe that the Manhattan case was a flagrant example of such weaponization of the legal system and should be denounced by all lawyers. It is a return, in my view, to the type of political prosecution once common in this country.

For those lawyers who view such prosecutions as political, they are speaking out in defense of what they believe is the essence of blind justice in America. What is “reckless” to the Connecticut Bar is righteous to others. Notably, the Bar officials did not write to denounce attacks on figures like Bill Barr or claims that the Justice Department was rigging justice during the Trump years.

Likewise, the letter focuses on critics of the Trump prosecutions and not the continued attacks on conservative jurists like Justice Samuel Alito. It has never published warnings about those calling conservative justices profanities, attacking their religion, or labeling them “partisan hacks” or other even “insurrectionist sympathizers.” Liberal activists have been calling for stopping conservative jurists “by any means necessary.”

In Connecticut, Sen. Richard Blumenthal has warned conservative justices to rule correctly or face “seismic changes.” That did not appear to worry the bar. Likewise, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also declared in front of the Supreme Court “I want to tell you, Gorsuch, I want to tell you, Kavanaugh, you have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price.”

The letter goes further and suggests that lawyers should speak publicly in support of trials like the one in Manhattan, a view that ignores the deep misgivings over the motivations and means used in New York to target an unpopular figure in this city. You have the top Bar officials calling on lawyers to take a public position that is opposed by many lawyers and citizens in defending the integrity of these prosecutions. Imagine the response if the Idaho Bar called on its lawyers to speak out against these cases and declared that it is reckless or unprofessional to defend them.

I expect that, in the very liberal Bar of Connecticut, the letter is hardly needed. Indeed, this letter is likely to be quite popular.  Yet, I would have thought that Bar officials would have taken greater care to respect the divergent opinions on these trials and the need to avoid any statements that might chill the exercise of free speech.

Ironically, the letter only reinforced the view of a legal system that is maintaining a political orthodoxy and agenda. These officials declare that it is now unprofessional or reckless for lawyers to draw historical comparisons to show trials or to question the motives or ethics underlying these cases. They warn lawyers not to “sow distrust in the public for the courts where it does not belong.” Yet, many believe that there is an alarming threat to our legal system and that distrust is warranted in light of prosecution like the one in Manhattan.

As discussed in my new book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage, critics of political prosecutions under the Crown and during the Adams Administrations were often threatened with disbarment or other legal actions for questioning the integrity or motives of judges or prosecutors.

It is not enough to say “well that was then and this is now.” The point is that the Bar Association also has a duty to protect the core rights that define our legal system, particularly the right of free speech.

Again, these officials are not threatening Bar action against critics of these cases. However, as evidenced by the emails in my inbox, it is being taken as a warning by many who hold misgivings over these prosecutions.

Our legal system has nothing to fear from criticism. Indeed, free speech strengthens our system by exposing divisions and encouraging dialogue. It is orthodoxy and speech intolerance that represent the most serious threats to that system.

Here is the message in its entirety:

Dear Members,

Words matter. Reckless words attacking the integrity of our judicial system matter even more.

In the wake of the recent trial and conviction of former President Donald Trump, public officials have issued statements claiming that the trial was a “sham,” a “hoax,” and “rigged”; our justice system is “corrupt and rigged”; the judge was “corrupt” and “highly unethical”; and, that the jury was “partisan” and “precooked.” Others claimed the trial was “America’s first communist show trial”—a reference to historic purges of high-ranking communist officials that were used to eliminate political threats.

These claims are unsubstantiated and reckless. Such statements can provoke acts of violence against those serving the public as employees of the judicial branch. Indeed, such statements have resulted in threats to those fulfilling their civic obligations by sitting on the jury, as evidenced by social media postings seeking to identify the names and addresses of the anonymous jurors and worse, in several cases urging that the jurors be shot or hanged. As importantly, such statements strike at the very integrity of the third branch of government and sow distrust in the public for the courts where it does not belong.

To be clear, free speech includes criticism. There is and should be no prohibition on commenting on the decision to bring the prosecution, the prosecution’s legal theory, the judge’s rulings, or the verdict itself. But headlines’ grabbing, baseless allegations made by public officials cross the line from criticism to dangerous rhetoric. They have no place in the public discourse.

It is up to us, as lawyers, to defend the courts and our judges. As individuals, and as an Association, we cannot let the charged political climate in which we live dismantle the third branch of government. To remain silent renders us complicit in that effort.

Respect for the judicial system is essential to our democracy. The CBA condemns unsupported attacks on the integrity of that system.

Sincerely,

Maggie Castinado

President,

Connecticut Bar Association

James T. (Tim) Shearin

President-Elect,

Connecticut Bar Association

Emily A. Gianquinto

Vice President,

Connecticut Bar Association

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage” (Simon and Schuster, 2024).

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 18:40

Obama And Kimmel Puppet Biden Through $30 Million LA Fundraiser As Trump Dazzles Detroit

Obama And Kimmel Puppet Biden Through $30 Million LA Fundraiser As Trump Dazzles Detroit

President Joe Biden was flanked by Barack Obama and Jimmy Kimmel Saturday night for what turned out to be a record-setting $30 million fundraising haul headlined by Obama, George Clooney and Julia Roberts. 

Following the Alex Soros blueprint, instead of talking up their accomplishments and future plans (oh, right), the trio laid into Trump over his conviction on 34 counts in his ‘hush-money’ trial (that was so absurd that top Democrats advised not bragging about it).

“Look, part of what has happened in the last several years is we’ve normalized behavior that used to be disqualified,” said Obama. “The other spectacle of the nominee of one of the two major parties is sitting in court and being convicted by a jury of his peers on 34 counts. You have his foundation, it’s not allowed to operate because it was engaging in monkey business and not actually philanthropic.”

At one point Obama had to guide a confused Biden offstage.

The event comes one week after Trump hauled in roughly $27.5 million from three fundraisers in California and one in Las Vegas – where he pledged to defeat “crooked Joe Biden” in November, and return to the White House to pursue an “America First” policy that will minimize foreign intervention and secure the US border.

And while the Democrats partied for Biden, Trump was able to rock a Detroit crowd without the aid of a former president.

Though it seems like security at the Detroit Convention Center didn’t do their job, so the Secret Service had to shut the place down and re-wand everyone.

Once things got going, the event went off without a hitch.

Earlier in the day, Trump visited with the black community.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 18:05

An Army Special Forces Veteran Creates American Flags That Don’t Burn

An Army Special Forces Veteran Creates American Flags That Don’t Burn

By Blake Stilwell if Military.com

In many ways, Kyle Daniels is your typical Midwestern American. He grew up in a patriotic household, many of his family members joined the military, and his father was very meticulous about flag etiquette — probably more so than your average American.

“Every morning we put it out at sunrise, we’d go out every night after work, bring it in and fold it the right way. It was very ceremonious,” Daniels recently told Military.com. “It was instilled in me very early that this flag represents the freedoms we enjoy today. It’s not just about the Fourth of July, it’s not just about the special days; it’s about every day. And that was something that I held near and dear to my heart.”

That patriotism was never lost on him. Daniels would grow up to join the ranks of Army Special Forces. When he left the service, he was looking for what to do in the next phase of his life. He found the opportunity to combine his love of country with his post-military career — a way to defend Old Glory itself, even if he’s not there to do it personally.

“I walked right out of a college class in 2003 and directly to a recruiter‘s office to sign [on] the dotted line,” Daniels said. “Within three months, I was in boot camp. I was a lost soul and just did not feel any compelling purpose for college. This was around the time that the war in Iraq kicked off, and I just knew I could do more there.”

Daniels joined the Army’s 18X program, which allowed him to go directly into Special Forces training. After boot camp, he went through Airborne School and the Special Forces Q-Course; by 2005, he was assigned to the 10th Special Forces Group. A year later, he finally made it to Iraq for the first of two deployments there. He stepped off a C-17 Globemaster III the night he arrived to see the American flag flying on the airfield.

“I remember not knowing what to expect going into combat,” Daniels recalled. “I was 22, and it was my first time actually going to war. I remember being at peace with it, but still not knowing what to expect. I’ll never forget coming off of a C-17 and seeing, very distinctly, the flag flying right on the airfield in Baghdad.  

“Something about seeing that, knowing where I was, brought me a sense of comfort, and that’s a lot of what the flag really, really instills in me. No matter where I am in the world, if I see that flag, there’s going to be some sense of comfort or reassurance.”

When Daniels left the U.S. military in 2010, he fulfilled a promise to his dad to finish college, but he struggled to figure out what he would do next. Like many veterans, he sought the help of friends who had already transitioned. A former teammate, Jason Van Camp, connected him with Warrior Rising, a nonprofit that helps veterans get their business ideas off the ground. Daniels and Van Camp talked at length about the politics of the country, and didn’t like what they saw. 

At the time, tensions were high in the United States, especially around the flag. Daniels saw protests around the 2016 presidential election and protests against American activities all over the world in which flags were being burned. He naturally felt the discourse didn’t represent the values that were instilled in him — with flags being burned.

“That really resonated with me,” he said. “I’ve seen the sacrifice people make for that flag and for the freedoms that it represents. I didn’t really know what to do at the time, but the idea came about. I was like, ‘I wish there was a flag that didn’t burn.’ And then we had the idea: Let’s make one.”

So they did, and by 2020, Firebrand Flags was born.

The material used to create these flags uses the same Kevlar-based fire retardant and manufacturing processes used to create U.S. military combat uniforms. They’re also engineered for durability. Anyone who’s flown a flag from their front porch knows that after even just a year of exposure to the elements, flags become frayed and discolored. Firebrand’s classic flag also prevents both. They are also, of course, made in the United States, with each star hand-sewn onto the blue field.

“We wanted a flag that not just embodied the fighting spirit that our men and women have but could actually defend itself from people who wanted to do it harm, people who wanted to disparage the flag or burn the flag,” Daniels said. “It was important for me that the stars were hand-sewn, and everything else is made in America.”

For a limited time, the company is offering a special, World War II-era vintage 48-star flag that was airdropped into Normandy, France, with the cast of the HBO series “Band of Brothers” to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion. To learn more about the process of making flags that won’t burn, Kyle Daniels or more about Firebrand’s “Old Glory” classic flag, visit the Firebrand Flags website.

 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 17:30

“Possible Chemical Agent” Released At Pride Event In Baltimore

“Possible Chemical Agent” Released At Pride Event In Baltimore

The Baltimore City Police Department is investigating a “possible chemical agent” released at a Pride event Saturday evening in the downtown area that sparked a “mass exodus.” 

Local media outlet Capital Gazette said a “possible chemical agent” and fireworks were released during the Baltimore Pride parade around 830 pm local time. 

Baltimore Police has yet to confirm the type of chemical agent that was released. The combination of the chemical agent and fireworks caused the large crowd to panic, scattering in different directions and resulting in several injuries. 

“Our officers are diligently reviewing the surveillance video to gather all the necessary information and determine the sequence of events,” said a Baltimore Police public information officer, Freddie Talbert.

Here’s a video of the chaos. 

In mid-May, the State Department renewed a global security warning for Americans overseas, adding LGBTQ folks face an “increased potential for foreign terrorist organization-inspired violence.” 

Domestically, FBI Director Chris Wray warned of the threat of a ‘coordinated attack’ in the US thanks to President Biden’s disastrous open southern borders.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 16:55

“There Seems To Be A Sense Of Incredulousness Around What Is Going On In The Markets”

“There Seems To Be A Sense Of Incredulousness Around What Is Going On In The Markets”

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Same but different

A few topics that we have touched on over the past few months continue to be relevant. What is interesting is that a few of those topics now seem to have garnered far more attention than in the past.

  • Discrepancies and “weirdness” in the jobs report. Best of Times, Worst of Times picked up on many of these, and not only have they been topics of discussion, but the Fed Chair was also specifically asked about them. I still think that the extremely high percentage of jobs “created” by the birth/death model and the shocking number of part-time vs. full-time jobs need to be better addressed (Who Needs Enemies?). At the very least, everyone finally seems to be trying to figure out the “real” state of the job market, and not just cherry picking the data that suits their needs.

  • Is 10% the new normal? While it took Apple 2 days to achieve a roughly 10% move, other large- cap companies are also jumping 10% or more in a single day. However, some others are losing that much in a day. As discussed in Is 10% the New 1% that is likely a sign that the market is more controlled by options, day traders, and “machines” rather than “traditional” investors. Probably a sign that liquidity has very little depth. This topic came up a LOT last week. Not sure what caused the spike in this topic, but even some “believers” in some stocks seemed to question what the heck is going on. I don’t think I’ve once said or written about stocks being in a bubble, and I am not doing that today, but for the first time, there seems to be a sense of “incredulousness” around what is going on in the markets. That could mean that we have another big leg higher as everyone gets “sucked in” to the market, but the discussions felt more disturbing than healthy.

  • How Tight Can Credit Spreads Go? Last weekend’s report generated a lot of back and forth on the subjects that we delved into. The “private credit” and “return of bank lending” probably generated the widest range of comments, though I did find out several people still have their IG 200 hats from 2008! If you missed this one, I think it is worth a read, even though credit spreads weakened a touch on the week.

  • “Extreme” Politics and Elections. It has been impossible not to notice how “polarized” so many things have become on the political front. While we are still at the “presumptive” nominee stage in the U.S., it feels like we are in the heart of the campaign already. But that we already knew. What I have to admit is that I didn’t realize this is apparently a global phenomenon. Markets were actually impacted by elections in France.

  • I, for one, did not have European Debt Crisis on my bingo card, and we are a far away from that, but maybe I should have? At first, the move was attributed to the fact that the right wing in France had done well. That those pushing a more “domestic” focused agenda had won. A trend that we have been seeing across the globe. It goes hand in hand with deglobalization. I am not particularly knowledgeable about French politics, so I went to those who are. What I found interesting is the real concern that the far left AND far right will do very well in upcoming elections. That would leave a “centrist” like Macron potentially short of support. I had not been thinking in terms of a bipolar world with respect to European elections. Now, maybe we have to? Will that be disruptive? Will it turn out that Brexit was merely the beginning of a trend towards countries “re-thinking” the EU? Probably far too early to say anything like that, but this issue, which was below my radar screen, has suddenly popped up and needs to be thought about more. This of course already comes on the heels of some interesting elections in Taiwan (pro-independence), India (Modi losing his grip?), and Mexico (a change in leadership as the border has become a vital part of the U.S. election). I’ve been so focused on U.S. politics and thinking about how the election is likely to play out here that I paid short shrift to Europe and that has to change.

Breadth.

  • Every day I read some new reports highlighting how few stocks are at their 52-week highs, while the index is setting records, or some other “anomaly.” I chose the Nasdaq 100, but the chart isn’t too dissimilar if you go with the S&P 500 vs the equal weighted S&P 500. The fact that the equal weight index isn’t at its highs and has barely budged in the past few weeks as the market cap weighted index soared tells you just how narrow this rally has been. It has been extremely AI driven and continues to be AI driven. That is the main reason I included ARKK. It is my proxy for “innovation” and continues to meander, while the Nasdaq 100 soars! So much of the return is being generated by a handful of large companies with great stories. But that leaves me (and I think a lot of others) wondering how long this bifurcated market can last? I am not sure, and the answer to that question might be “longer than we think” as many investors are staring nervously at Europe, given the political backdrop and tricky economic situation (the ECB cut, but raised their inflation expectation, while overall growth seems to remain behind that of the U.S.). Presumably, money coming from Europe to the U.S. will go into index funds, creating more demand for the most heavily weighted stocks. Personally, I had much more “fun” late last year when I was pounding the table for the “laggards” to outperform (and even more “fun” when that proceeded to occur). But, right now, I’m not sure that outperformance will play out, unless it is in a down market. The “catch-up” scenario would make a lot of sense if the economy was firing on all cylinders, but that isn’t my outlook for the coming months. In the meantime, we can watch VIX drop, and wait for it to cross 10, like it did back in early 2018/late 2017.

We will continue to focus on these issues, and it is interesting that they seem to be bubbling to the top (though off-hand, I’m not sure if that is good or bad for markets). The fact that the 10-year Treasury traded as high as 4.48% (the high end of our 4.3% to 4.5% range) and traded as low as 4.19% on the week (below the low end of our range) doesn’t give me a lot of comfort about the depth of liquidity. The CPI data and the Fed data helped, but the real boost seemed to come from concerns about Europe.

Hopefully, you can enjoy Father’s Day with family and friends and brace yourself for what is likely to be another round of corporate bond issuance as borrowers benefit from the reprieve in yields.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 16:20

Eight Israeli Soldiers Killed In One Of Single Deadliest Incidents Since Oct 7

Eight Israeli Soldiers Killed In One Of Single Deadliest Incidents Since Oct 7

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Saturday suffered a mass casualty event in southern Gaza after a Hamas attack scored a direct hit on an armored vehicle which was carrying a group of soldiers.

Eight Israeli solders were killed after the infantry transport vehicle was hit by an anti-tank missile, the IDF said, in what’s being widely called one of the single deadliest single incidents involving Israeli soldier casualties since October 7. The military said it may have also been the result of an explosive device planted in the area.

IDF file image, AFP/Getty

The IDF said the troops were engaged in an offensive against “terrorist infrastructure” shortly after 5am Sunday in the northwestern part of the Tal al-Sultan refugee camp, which lies just west of Rafah. They were part of the Combat Engineering Corps’ 601st Battalion and all ranged in age from 19 to 23.

“According to the information we have at this point one of the engineering vehicles in the convoy was involved in an explosion that was apparently caused by explosive devices planted in the area or as a result of anti-tank missile fire,” IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari described in a press briefing.

While the findings are still preliminary, military investigators believe there’s a possibility that the explosion was so devastating because the anti-tank found ignited explosive material aboard the armored vehicle.

“The current assessment is that the ‘Nemera’ armored vehicle got hit as a result of an explosion of a side bomb. In addition, on the vehicle there were engineering tools that include explosive materiel,” the IDF statement said.

“The explosion was significant and may have been caused by the ignition of the explosive materiel on the vehicle. All this is not supposed to happen and therefore the incident is being examined,” Hagari continued.

He further explained that the blast and fire was so expansive that it was difficult to identify and locate the bodies of those killed.

“Today we received another painful reminder of the price of war and that brave warriors and heroes were willing to sacrifice their lives for the state of Israel, which is the common home of all of us: Druze, Jews, Bedouin, Muslims and Christians. All citizens of Israel, our hearts and thoughts are with the families at this difficult time,” Hagari added, it what appeared wording geared toward pushing back against international criticism of a Jewish ethno-religious state.

Al Jazeera has aired footage of the destroyed “Namer” Israeli personnel carrier being towed out of southern Gaza…

Meanwhile, Hamas and its supporters appeared to positively celebrate the mass troops casualties. The group issued a statement saying “Our painful strikes against the enemy will continue everywhere they are present, and the occupying army will find nothing but death traps.”

Hamas’ al Qassam Brigades confirmed it had “carried out a complex ambush against enemy vehicles” operating in Tal al-Sultan. According to its account, the attack started by successfully hitting a military bulldozer which caught fire. The initial rescue troops on the scene were then struck by the anti-tank missile.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 15:45

Musk Says “Eliminate Electronic Voting Machines” After Dominion’s Puerto Rican Imbroglio

Musk Says “Eliminate Electronic Voting Machines” After Dominion’s Puerto Rican Imbroglio

Elon Musk on Saturday suggested that electronic voting machines should not be used in elections, as “The risk of being hacked by humans or AI, while small, is still too high.”

Musk was responding to the recent news that Puerto Rico is ‘reviewing’ their contract with Dominion Voting Systems after a ‘software issue’ caused machines supplied by the company to miscalculate vote totals, according to the country’s elections commission.

According to AP, vote counts reported by Dominion machines were lower than paper counts in some cases, and some machines reversed totals or reported zero votes for some candidates.

The concern is that we obviously have elections in November, and we must provide the (island) not only with the assurance that the machine produces a correct result, but also that the result it produces is the same one that is reported,” said Padilla.

The island nation used more than 6,000 Dominion voting machines in their June 2 primary.

The company claims that the software issues stemmed from the digital files used to export the results from the primaries.

The President of Puerto Rico’s House of Representatives, José Varela, has Dominion’s back – calling for Padilla to appear at a public hearing on Thursday to address the issues.

We cannot allow the public’s confidence in the voting process to continue to be undermined as we approach the general elections,” he said.

The problems called to mind the island’s botched 2020 primaries, when a lack of ballots at some centers forced the government to reschedule voting in a first for the U.S. territory.

On June 2, Puerto Rico held primary elections to select gubernatorial candidates for the pro-statehood New Progressive Party and the Popular Democratic Party, which supports the island’s territorial status.

In a surprise upset, Jenniffer González, Puerto Rico’s congressional representative, beat Gov. Pedro Pierluisi in the primary held by the New Progressive Party. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico Rep. Jesús Manuel Ortiz defeated Sen. Juan Zaragoza in the primary held by their Popular Democratic Party.

Both parties reported hundreds of ballots showing inaccurate results, with the PNP reporting over 700 errors and the PPD pointing to some 350 discrepancies. These inaccuracies affected ballots for positions including governor, mayor and resident commissioner. -AP

Following the discrepancies, the elections commission conducted a full vote tally and audited paper receipts from hundreds of ballot-counting machines – after which Ombudsman Edwin García Feliciano called the incident a “threat” to the island’s electoral system, and called on the governor and the island’s federal control board that oversees the island’s finances to establish a plan to improve election security.

“All planning is based on resolving emergencies, including unlikely ones,” said García Feliciano, adding “But predictable circumstances, which are well known to the public, cannot be addressed by improvisation and in a rush.”

The island’s general election will be held in November, where citizens will choose a new governor and local representatives.

Meanwhile in Georgia, a federal judge ruled in February that Georgia’s electronic voting machines had issues related to security and transparency – yet she declined to immediately halt the use of said machines.

Despite identifying several problems with the state’s election system, US District Judge Amy Totenberg allowed Georgia to continue using the current electronic voting system while acknowledging the plaintiffs’ concerns about the risks to the integrity of the voting process.

Also meanwhile;

In March, Headline USA reported that during defamation lawsuit between Dominion Voting Systems and former Overstock.com CEO and Donald Trump supporter Patrick Byrne, one of Byrne’s attorneys, Stephanie Lambert, who was later arrested, leaked evidence that foreign nationals remotely accessed voting machines used in Michigan in the 2020 elections.

In February of 2022, top officials at a U.S. federal cybersecurity agency are urging a judge not to authorize at this time the release of a report that analyzes Dominion Voting Systems equipment in Georgia, arguing doing so could assist hackers trying to “undermine election security.”

Meanwhile, officials in Fulton County, Pennsylvania sued Dominion in September of 2022, claiming that the county had  allegedly discovered that a “python script” had been installed on one device, which was “connected to an external device on an external network” reportedly located in Canada.

The script “can exploit and create any number of vulnerabilities including, external access to the system, data export of the tabulations, or introduction of other metrics not part of or allowed by the certification process,” according to the filing.

Officials also claimed that the machines were running a July, 2016 version of Windows Defender, which would have left the machine vulnerable to “viruses or malicious software” created after that date.

That civil breach of contract case was tossed by 88-year-old federal Judge Sylvia Rambo (Carter appointee), who wrote that the “voting system functioned substantially as intended, and by all appearances, those actual errors which did occur were minuscule and had no material impact on the functioning of the devices.” Meanwhile, the State Supreme Court found Fulton in contempt for allowing multiple third-party inspections of Dominion machines used in the 2020 election, and a contractor, Yaacov Apelbaum, has accused county attorney Stefanie Lambert (also of the Byrne case), of asking him to falsify a report alleging that Dominion machines had been hacked.

Last April, Dominion walked away with a $787M settlement from Fox News over reports that its equipment switched votes in the 2020 US election. Days later, host Tucker Carlson was out (which Carlson says a board member told him was part of the settlement).

Amazing.

 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 14:35

“Worst He’s Ever Been” – G7 Dignitaries Admit Biden Was “Losing Focus”

“Worst He’s Ever Been” – G7 Dignitaries Admit Biden Was “Losing Focus”

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

A report quoting insiders at the G7 summit this past week has warned that Joe Biden struggled to focus at the meeting of world leaders in Puglia, Italy. 

According to one source, Biden is “the worst he’s ever been,” with attendees from other delegations saying it was “embarrassing.”

As we highlighted, Biden was seen wandering off like a dementia patient and looking perpetually confused.

Watch: Biden Wanders Off On His Own At G7 Meeting Like A Dementia Patient 

The footage of Biden prompted mocking headlines. 

Biden also skipped the dinner later in the evening, before returning to the US.

Of course, the Biden campaign claims it’s all “lies” and the footage of him was “taken out of context.”

Biden’s campaign spokesperson Adrienne Elrod described the headlines and reports as “disinformation” and suggested that social media platforms should prevent it from being shared.

It has also been reported that the debate between Biden and Trump scheduled for June 27 will see the pair seated at tables at the request of Biden’s campaign.

Trump told the hosts of the Cats & Cosby Show last month “I hear now we’re sitting at tables. I don’t want to sit at a table.”

“I said, ‘No, let’s stand.’ But they want to sit at a table,” Trump further remarked, adding “So we’ll be sitting at a table as opposed to doing it the way you should be, in my opinion, in a debate.”

Meanwhile back at the ranch…

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/16/2024 – 14:00