After US stocks were set to start week with modest gains as optimism around an economic recovery in China offset fears that the Fed is pushing the US economy off a recessionary cliff. S&P and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.4% as of 7:45 a.m. ET led by energy and tech shares, after China’s leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, and further support for the property market.

In premarket trading, Tesla gained after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes. At the same time, Ardelyx slumped after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH (tenapanor). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Tesla shares gain 5.1% in US premarket trading after CEO Elon Musk polled users on Twitter over whether he should step down as head of the social-media company, with the result so far leaning toward yes.
• Moderna gains 4% as Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying it can rebound in 2023 on a return of pipeline opportunities.
• Ardelyx shares drop 13% after the biotech said that the FDA may need “up to a few more weeks” to finalize its response to the company’s appeal over the complete response letter for its new drug application for its kidney disease therapy XPHOZAH.
• Aerojet shares rise 3% after L3Harris Technologies (LHX US) agreed to buy the rocket engine maker in a deal valued at about $4.7 billion. The purchase makes strategic sense, although analysts at Truist said the offer price looks expensive.
• Watch Netflix stock as its price target was raised at Morgan Stanley on the back of currency “swings,” though broker flagged risk that expectations and valuation have run “too far too fast.”
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock is downgraded to hold at Jefferies, which says that the company continues to offer a good pipeline, but risk/reward and valuation seem “balanced” following strong gains this year.
• KeyBanc adds to recent upgrades for PerkinElmer moving to overweight from sector weight based on transformational sale of analytical instruments business.

A fourth-quarter rally in the S&P 500 fizzled out as investors grew worried the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer despite signs of cooling in inflation. Unexpectedly hawkish comments from the European Central Bank added to the pessimism last week, keeping the benchmark index on course for its biggest annual slump since 2008.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said although stock-index futures were climbing today, sentiment is still expected to be subdued into the year-end. “Concerns that the US will be dragged into recession as the Fed tries to tame the wild horse of inflation are still front and center,” she said.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson warned US corporate earnings next year are facing their biggest drop since the global financial crisis as the economy weakens. That could spark a new stock-market low that’s “much worse than what most investors are expecting,” he wrote in a note.

Yet while underlying stock indexes remain on track to end the month lower, some investors are starting to look past fears of an economic recession triggered by higher interest rates, and betting that inflation has peaked allowing the Federal Reserve and other central banks some leeway in tightening policy.  

“Markets have begun to price in that inflation will decline, in part due to the action by central banks,” Jacob Vijverberg, multi-asset investment manager at Aegon Asset Management, told clients, pointing to recent below-forecast US inflation figures. This would help riskier assets such as higher yielding fixed income and equities to outperform, he added.

European stocks also gained after a downbeat close to the past week, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.5% led by energy shares which outperformed on Monday as oil advanced following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves. The Stoxx 600 Energy sub-index rose 2.2% as of 8:30 a.m. in London, outpacing all other groups in the regional equity benchmark, which gained 0.5%. Here are the biggest Eureopean movers:

• BP shares rise as much as 3.3%, Shell 3.2% and TotalEnergies 3.4%. European energy shares outperform on Monday as oil advances following a pledge from China to revive consumption and a plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling US strategic crude reserves.
• Suedzucker shares rise as much as 6.4%, adding to last week’s strong gains following the German sugar producer’s guidance increase, with Warburg today upgrading the stock to buy from hold.
• Innate Pharma surged as much as 19% at the open after the French biotech company announced it had expanded its collaboration with Sanofi for natural killer cell therapeutics in oncology.
• Freenet shares rise as much as 4.8% after Deutsche Bank raises the stock to buy from hold, saying the telecom and media firm could be a defensive addition to portfolios in 2023.
• TietoEVRY shares gain as much as 3.5% after Nordea raised its recommendation to buy from hold, saying the break-up case for the firm is “becoming partly de-risked” following the announced disposals of Banking, Connect and Transform businesses.
• Nexi shares advance as much as 5% to lead gains on the FTSE MIB index after the government dropped a proposed measure on a minimum threshold to accept digital payments.
• Fugro shares dropped as much as 30%, the most since 1995, after report on involvement with 2019 dam breach in Brazil that killed 270 people.
• Tokmanni shares fall as much as 6.8%, extending losses into a fourth session, after Nordea cut its recommendation for the shares to hold from buy, noting the company’s “unwillingness to increase prices” hurts its investment case “at least temporarily.”

Asia stocks headed lower for a third day as traders assessed rising infection numbers in China and risks of a regional economic slowdown. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased initial gains to fall as much as 0.4%, as health care and industrials dragged on the gauge. Initial optimism for stocks in China and Hong Kong faded amid concerns that Asia’s biggest economy will suffer from a spike in virus cases in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities. Beijing Covid Death Reports Fuel Concern China Hiding Data Benchmarks also slumped in Japan as the yen strengthened, joining the Philippines and South Korea lower, while India and Singapore advanced.   Asian shares could climb more than 9% through 2023, according to strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. But the road may be bumpy as uncertainty remains over the pace of China’s reopening and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Moreover, the world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year. Still, “modest valuations, light investor positioning and good fundamentals are buffers that should help Asian stocks withstand near-term volatility,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian and global emerging market equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

The yen strengthens and JGB futures fall on report PM Kishida may add flexibility to BOJ’s 2% inflation goal. Japan’s 5-year yield climbs to 0.145%, highest since 2015. The moves are later pared after Japan’s Matsuno denies plans to revise BOJ accord. Most currency majors grind higher against the dollar; yuan marginally softer. Asian stocks fall for third day, with Japan and China leading the retreat. Hang Seng erases a gain of as much as 1.7%, Shanghai Composite falls 1.5%. S&P futures nudge 0.1% higher, Nasdaq contracts also slightly firmer. Treasury 10-year yield adds three basis points to 3.51%; Australian curve bear steepens after 10-year yield jumps six basis points. WTI crude rises to around $75.20; gold muted near $1,792.

Australia stocks edged lower: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.2% to close at 7,133.90, with real-estate shares leading declines on the gauge. Shares of Star Entertainment slid 18% to become the worst performer on the gauge after the government issued new proposed tax changes that may impact its business. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.7% to 11,518.14

Indian stocks rose the most in nearly a month, in contrast to the broader Asian market that traded lower.  The S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.8% to 61,806.19, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also advanced by a similar measure. Benchmark indexes in most other regional economies, including China, Hong Kong and Japan, fell. Broad-based buying in the market lifted overall sentiments, said Osho Krishan, senior analyst, technical and derivative research, Angel One. “Technically, there has been no substantial change in the market outlook as the bulls made a comeback from their support zone and showcased their resilience,” Krishan said.  The gains come as demand in India’s large domestic market cushions it from the impact of a slowing global economy. High-frequency indicators show the economic activity has stayed steady in recent months but may slow going forward as resilience wanes.  Reliance Industries gave the biggest boost to the index, adding 1.4%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Here is how other key pairs did:

• The euro rose by 0.6% to 1.0653, erasing Friday’s loss after ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said half-point increases in borrowing costs will continue as officials try to tame soaring prices. In Germany, the IFO business confidence index rose to 88.6 (estimate 87.5) in December from revised 86.4 in November, according to the IFO Institute
• The pound rose while gilts plunged across the curve with the belly outperforming slightly as money markets added to BOE tightening wagers and traders looked ahead to QE sales starting January
• The yen whipsawed after reports on a potential change to a key agreement between the government and central bank fueled speculation policy makers are moving closer to a hawkish pivot. The BOJ is expected to keep monetary stimulus unchanged Tuesday, yet elevated overnight volatility in the yen reflects risk of a shift in tone when it comes to forward guidance
• Australian dollar climbed amid broad greenback weakness spurred by speculation of a hawkish pivot in Japan. Gains were refreshed on news that Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong will travel to Beijing on Tuesday

In rates, the Treasury curve twist-steepened; the 2-year yield fell 1bp and the 10-year yield rose by around 4bps. US 10-year yields around 3.54%, cheaper by 6bps vs. Friday close with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 1.5bp and 10bp in the sector; long-end led losses widens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 3.5bp and 3bp on the day. Dollar issuance slate remains light, with issuance likely concluded now for the year. Treasuries follow more aggressive bear steepening move across gilts, where long-end yield are cheaper by 13bp as traders look ahead to QE sales starting January. This week’s US auctions include $12b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $19b 5-year TIPS Thursday. In Europe, Bunds and Italian bonds extend the streak of declines to four, the longest in 6 weeks and money markets added to ECB tightening bets as markets continued to digest last week’s hawkish policy messaging.

In commodities, oil futures rose boosted by Beijing’s pro-growth pledge and a US move to refill strategic crude reserves boosted oil futures, though economic growth fears kept prices on track for a second monthly loss.  

Bitcoin is softer on the session, but resides towards the mid-point of relative narrow parameters.

It’s a quiet economic calendar, with just the NAHB Housing Market Index on deck (est. 34, prior 33).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,894.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 426.88
• MXAP down 0.2% to 156.07
• MXAPJ little changed at 507.98
• Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,237.64
• Topix down 0.8% to 1,935.41
• Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 19,352.81
• Shanghai Composite down 1.9% to 3,107.12
• Sensex up 0.7% to 61,781.21
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,133.87
• Kospi down 0.3% to 2,352.17
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.19%
• Euro up 0.6% to $1.0647
• Brent Futures up 1.1% to $79.90/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,796.99
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.46% to 104.22

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• EU member states will on Monday discuss a gas-price cap that’s almost one-third lower than an original proposal as they attempt to break a deadlock over the controversial proposal to contain the impact of a historic energy crisis
• After this winter, the EU will have to refill gas reserves with little to no deliveries from Russia, intensifying competition for tankers of the fuel. Even with more facilities to import liquefied natural gas coming online, the market is expected to remain tight until 2026, when additional production capacity from the US to Qatar becomes available. That means no respite from high prices
• China’s swift abandonment of Covid Zero has seen infections explode, especially in Beijing, which has seen shortages of medicine, overwhelmed hospital staff and deserted streets as residents stay home sick or to avoid the virus. That aligns with what other places experienced as they shifted from eliminating Covid to living with it — except for the lack of officially reported deaths
• China’s top leaders said they will focus on boosting the economy next year, hinting at business-friendly policies, further support for the property market while likely scaling back fiscal stimulus

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded lower across the board following the downbeat performance on Wall Street on Friday. ASX 200 was weighed on by its heavyweight Financials and Healthcare sectors but losses were cushioned by gains in the metals-related names. Nikkei 225 was pressured following weekend reports that Japan’s government is set to revise a 10-year-old joint statement with  the BoJ that commits the central bank to achieve its 2% inflation “at the earliest date possible,” while Toshiba Corp shares slid over 5% amid Nikkei reports that its preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially mixed but the former failed to hold onto opening gains whilst the latter overlooked the PBoC injecting fresh funds via 14-day reverse repo for the first time in nearly two months, with sentiment dampened by reports of two COVID-related deaths in mainland China. US equity futures traded flat within tight ranges – the ES March contract remained under 3,900.

Top Asian News

• China reported two new COVID-related deaths in the mainland on December 18th vs zero a day earlier, according to Reuters.
• China’s Shanghai Education Bureau said it is to shut down all in-person classes in kindergartens and childcare centres in the city from December 19th due to COVID-19 infections, according to Reuters.
• Chip maker Renesas Electronics (6723 JT) suspended work at its Beijing plant from Friday for several days due to the spread of COVID-19 in the city, according to Reuters.
• Beijing has removed or adjusted 126 COVID-19 prevention measures, and all factories and construction sites above designated size and commercial buildings in the city have fully resumed work, officials cited by Global Times said Sunday.
• Macau’s government is to cancel COVID risk regulations for mainland China from Tuesday; arrivals from China must have a negative COVID test in the last 72 hours, according to Reuters.
• Hong Kong leader Lee to begin a four-day trip to Beijing on Wednesday, at which he is expected to discuss the reopening of the border with mainland China, via SCMP citing sources.
• Beijing, China is to buy imported COVID medicines to relive pressure on domestic shortages, via Reuters citing an official; customs will speed up the clearance for imported COVID medicines.
• USTR Office has announced a nine-month extension of tariff exclusion on 352 Chinese import product categories, according to Reuters.
• China is to maintain ample liquidity in 2023 to implement proactive fiscal policy, according to state media citing the PBoC Vice Governor.
• China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggested China will focus on stabilising its economy in 2023 and step up policy to ensure key targets are met, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
• PBoC injected CNY 9bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.00%; injects CNY 76bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 2.15% – for a daily net injection CNY 83bln. according to Reuters.
• Toshiba Corp’s (6502 JT) preferred bidder JIP reportedly appears to be mulling a lower valuation for a buyout, according to Nikkei.
• Japan is reportedly eyeing an initial budget at a record JPY 114tln for FY23, according to Kyodo.
• Australia’s sovereign wealth fund is positioning for inflationary pressures to persist globally and believes that gold and other commodities will offset hindered returns across asset classes, according to Bloomberg.
• South Korean Finance Minister said the economy is slowing more rapidly than expected; economic slowdown is to be at its worst pace in H1 2023, via Reuters.

European bourses have commenced the week on a firmer footing, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%, shaking off the softer APAC handover in minimal newsflow. Sectors are firmer ex-Media/Real Estate, featuring outperformance in Energy after Friday’s pressure. Stateside, futures are similarly supported, ES +0.5%, in-tandem with the European tone ahead of a sparse US docket.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Hunt has commissioned the OBR to prepare an economic & fiscal forecast, to be presented alongside the Spring Budget due 15th March, 2023.
• UK PM Sunak scrapped Liz Truss’ plan to purchase energy from foreign producers, according to Sky News. Elsewhere, Sunak is set to sign off an extension to the government’s energy support package for businesses for up to 12 months.
• Bank of France cut France’s 2023 growth forecast to 0.3% (prev. 0.5%) and cut the 2024 forecast to 1.2% (prev. 1.8%), according to Reuters.
• ECB’s de Guindos says the ECB will keep hiking rates and does not know when they will stop, not planning on altering the 2% mid-term price stability goal.
• ECB’s Simkus is in no doubt that there will be a 50bps hike in February.
• ECB’s Kazimir says rates will not only need to go to restrictive territory but stay there much longer.

FX

• USD has faded despite hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric, with the DXY nearer the lower-end of 10412-83 parameters.
• Action which benefits peers across the board, with marked outperformance in the JPY as USD/JPY gapped lower from the 136.69 close to either side of the figure.
• Antipodeans are the current best performers, with the Kiwi through 0.64 vs USD at best and AUD holding above 0.67.
• EUR is bid but to a slightly lesser extent despite hawkish (as expected) ECB rhetoric and strong German Ifo release while Cable has reclaimed 1.22 convincingly.
• ZAR is the marked outperformer after Ramaphosa secures re-election as ANC leader for the 2024 presidential campaign.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9746 vs exp. 6.9753 (prev. 6.9791)
• South African President Ramaphosa has been re-elected as leader of the governing ANC party.

Fixed Income

• Bunds are facing modest pressure, though are off worst levels which occurred in wake of ECB’s Kazimir which prompted the 10yr German yield to test 2.20%, action which is being felt more keenly in the periphery.
• Gilts are the marked underperformers after last week’s relative resilience, with the UK yield around 3.45%.
• USTs are softer, but comparably more contained and haven’t really threatened a breach of initial early-European parameters.

Commodities

• A choppy but ultimately fairly contained start to the week for the crude benchmarks. Price action throughout the European morning has been two-way in nature and at times without an overt catalyst or driver.
• Currently, WTI & Brent Fed’23 are firmer by around USD 1.00/bbl on the session but are shy of their overnight peaks by around another USD 1.00/bbl, and as such are someway from last week’s respective USD 77.77/bbl and USD 75.26/bbl best levels.
• EU countries are reportedly mulling a gas price cap at levels lower than suggested to date, with the bloc set to meet on Monday in a bid to come to an agreement, according to a document cited by Reuters. Czech Republic proposed a EUR 188/MWh cap on Dutch TTF front-month contract vs the EUR 275/MWh cap originally suggested, according to Reuters.
• Saudi Aramco, Sinopec and SABIC have expanded refining and petrochemical cooperation and expect to start operations by the end of 2025, according to Reuters.
• Algeria is considering exporting its spare power capacity to Europe, according to the Algerian Energy Minister cited by Reuters.
• Uniper (UN01 GY) said the first German LNG terminal is to open in Wilhelmshaven; an annual volume of at least 5bcm of natural gas is expected to be imported, according to Reuters.
• El Paso Natural Gas Co. has lifted the force majeure at its Amarillo compressor station, according to Reuters.
• North Dakota Pipeline Authority said an estimated 200-250k BPD of oil was curtailed on Friday as a result of an extended storm system but anticipated a relatively quick return of production over the next several days, according to Reuters.
• USDA and USTR chiefs said Mexican officials have presented potential amendments to restrictions on genetically modified corn and other biotech products, according to Reuters.
• Indian antitrust agency raided some steel firms for alleged price collusion, according to Reuters sources.
• Peruvian President has urged congress to pass a bill to bring forward general elections amid protests, according to Reuters.
• Spot gold and silver are benefitting from the dented dollar while base metals derive support from the generally positive risk tone and the aforementioned unwinding of restrictions in China, with LME Copper firmer by over 1.0%.

Geopolitics

• Blasts were heard across Ukrainian capital Kyiv early Monday morning, according to a Reuters witness.
• Russian military stationed in Belarus are to conduct tactical exercises, according to Interfax citing the Russian Defence Ministry
• Ukrainian advisor Podolyak says, to European partners, Ukraine will not surrender to or fulfil the demands of Russia; adds, “War ending can only be accelerated by increasing artillery/tanks supply. Even unilaterally…”
• Qatari diplomat said Qatar has been “exclusively criticised and attacked” in the investigation into the European parliament, according to a statement cited by Reuters. Qatari diplomat added that “limiting dialogue and cooperation” on Qatar before the legal process has ended will negatively affect discussions on global energy security and security cooperation.
• North Korea fired two ballistic missiles towards the Korean Peninsula’s east coast on Sunday, according to the South Korean military cited by Reuters. The missiles appeared to have landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), according to NHK.
• US State Department said the US is gravely concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly continuing to kill protesters, according to Reuters.
• Italian Economy Minister urged the EU to give a strong and strategic response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and suggested some Italian companies are considering moving production to the US, according to Reuters.
• Australian PM said Foreign Minister Wong is to travel to Beijing on Tuesday at the invitation of China, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00: Dec. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 34, prior 33

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Well, I had Argentina in the research World Cup sweepstake. After hours of studying form, player fatigue, different systems, the climate etc., I skillfully closed my eyes and put my hand in a jar and pulled the winners out. I will try to not let my success change me.

As everyone recovers from a breathtaking final, it’ll be interesting to see whether market activity drops off a cliff this week as we approach Christmas even if there was lots of unfinished business after last week. The market doesn’t believe the Fed, with a pricing disconnect now opening up, and the market is now worried the ECB has upped its level of hawkishness. Outside of the ECB’s Guindos and Simkus speaking today we won’t hear much from these two central banks before Xmas so there is unlikely to be much official follow-through to last week’s meetings. It will therefore be left to quite a full slate of data to move markets in what is likely to be a week low on liquidity.

The US consumer will be a big focus with consumer confidence (Wednesday) and personal income data, along with PCE inflation (both Friday). We’ll also see various housing market and business activity indicators from the US, as well as Japan’s CPI report and PPI numbers from Europe.

Elsewhere, the BoJ will be the last major central bank to make a monetary policy decision this year tomorrow. It could be a bit more interesting than usual as we’ll see below.

In terms of some of the highlights now, we start with US housing. This is obviously a big focus at the moment and today’s NAHB housing index (33 DB forecast vs 33 previously), tomorrow’s housing starts (1.400mn vs. 1.425mn) and building permits (1.500mn vs. 1.512mn), Wednesday’s existing home sales (4.25mn vs. 4.43mn) and Friday’s new home sales (600k vs. 632k) will all be important. The hard data is all expected to slow further from last month.

Probably more important is Friday’s income and consumption report which contains the latest reading on core PCE. Our economists think it should come in at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.2% previously), taking the YoY rate down three-tenths to 4.7%. Normally core PCE is above core CPI but over the next 12 months our economists think that anomalies in healthcare components between the two means that the former will edge above the latter at 3.2% for 2023 Q4/Q4 against 3.1%. Friday also see the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, including the important consumer expectations of inflation.

Other business activity gauges for the US include durable goods orders on Friday, with both headline (DB forecast -3.5% vs +1.1% in October) and core (DB forecast unch vs +0.6%) seen showing signs of weakening by our US economists. Indicators of manufacturing activity from regional Feds are also due throughout the week. These releases will follow an array of downside surprises in activity-related gauges recently, including the fall in industrial production last Thursday.

Over in Europe, we will get PPIs from several countries starting with Germany tomorrow. As a reminder, the latest YoY reading stands at 34.5%, some way off the 45.8% peak reached in August. October’s report also showed the first MoM decrease in producer prices since May 2020 amid falling energy costs.

From central banks, all eyes will be on the BoJ tomorrow and we will also get minutes from their October meeting on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist previews the meeting and addresses the potential for YCC revision or a policy assessment here.

The yen initially rallied as much as +0.61% this morning after Kyodo News reported on Saturday that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was looking to add flexibility around the 2% inflation goal and would discuss it with the next governor after Kuroda’s term ends in April. This follows Bloomberg last week reporting that a policy review is being considered for next year. However, some of the Japanese currency’s early gains today were reversed after a government spokesman denied the report and the Yen (+0.28%) is currently trading at $136.22.

Following the BoJ’s decision, the CPI report for Japan will be released on Thursday. Our Chief Japan economist (full preview here) expects the overall index to reach 3.9% YoY (vs +3.7% in October), the core index excluding fresh food to be up 3.8% (+3.6%), and core-core index excluding fresh food and energy to rise to 2.8% (+2.5%) as food and durable goods continue to be the key drivers of inflation.

Speaking of energy prices, EU energy ministers will meet today to resume talks regarding a natural gas price cap as well as other measures to cope with the energy crisis as winter looms.

Similar to the US, a number of sentiment indicators will be released in Europe. For Germany, they will include the Ifo survey today and the GfK’s consumer confidence reading on Wednesday. Manufacturing and consumer confidence will also be released for Italy on Friday.

Asian stock markets had a negative start to the final full trading week of 2022, tracking Friday’s losses on Wall Street as synchronised interest rate hikes and a hawkish tone from global central banks weigh on sentiment. Rising Covid-19 cases in China, particularly in Beijing, following the abandonment of Covid Zero are also adding to the bearish mood. Chinese equities are retreating with the Shanghai Composite (-1.31%) and the CSI (-1.03%) both in the red. The Nikkei (-1.15%), the KOSPI (-0.60%) and the Hang Seng (-0.45%) are also weak in early trading. In overnight trading, US stock futures are little changed with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.06%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.07%) slightly down after posting two consecutive weekly losses.

In energy markets, oil futures have moved higher in Asian trading hours with Brent oil (+0.94%) trading at $79.81/bbl and WTI futures (+1.00%) at $75.03/bbl after China indicated its intention to revive consumption heading into 2023. Meanwhile, yields on 10Yr USTs are up +2.92 bps, trading at 3.51%.

Looking back at last week, it was a familiar 2022 story in markets since hawkish central bank announcements from the Fed and the ECB sparked a fresh selloff. The decisions themselves were actually in line with expectations, with both hiking by 50bps. But what struck investors was the much more aggressive tone on future rate hikes than the consensus had expected. For instance, the FOMC’s dot plot signalled that rates would be at 5.1% even by end-2023, which was up from 4.6% in the September dot plot. Meanwhile, the ECB said that rates would “still have to rise significantly”, with President Lagarde explicitly pointing to further 50bp moves ahead.

Given those developments, risk assets sold off across the board, with the S&P 500 ending the week -2.08% lower (-1.11% Friday). That was a massive turnaround from earlier in the week, when the index had surged on the back of the US CPI print on Tuesday that surprised to the downside. Indeed, by the close on Friday the S&P 500 was down -6.06% from its intraday peak for the week just after the release. It was a similar story elsewhere too, with the STOXX 600 down -3.28% over the week (-1.20% Friday), and the Nikkei down -1.34% (-1.87% Friday).

In Europe, sovereign bonds saw significant losses in light of the ECB’s rhetoric, and yields on 10yr German bunds rose by +21.9bps (+7.0bps Friday) to 2.14%. The moves at the front-end of the curve were even larger, with the 2yr German yield up +26.5bps (+3.7bps Friday) to a post-2008 high, which came as investors increased their expectations for the ECB terminal rate. For Treasuries there was a rather different reaction however, with 10yr yields ending the week down -9.6bps (+3.6bps Friday). That occurred as investors grew increasingly confident that the Fed would be able to keep long-term inflation in check, with the 10yr breakeven down to a nearly two-year low of 2.13%.

Spanish lawmakers in the lower house last Thursday approved a bill which would grant paid medical leave for women who say they’re experiencing period cramps – which, if passed, would make it the first such legislation in Europe.

According to Spain’s left-wing government, the legislation – which passed by a margin of 190 for, and 154 against (with five abstentions), the legislation is aimed at ‘breaking a taboo’ on the subject, France24 reports.

“The subject of periods shouldn’t be seen as taboo, something that is just a private matter, but rather something that the state and government addresses like a public health issue,” said Ophélie Latil, a member of feminist organisation Georgette Sand.

The benefit is currently offered in Japan, Indonesia and Zambia, as well as a few other countries.

The bill will next go to the Senate, which can make changes before sending it back to the lower house, which can then pass it into law.

The legislation entitles workers experiencing period pain to as much time off as they need, with the state’s social security system – and not employers – picking up the tab.

As with paid leave for other health reasons, it must be approved by a doctor.

Spanish Equality Minister Irene Montero hailed the move as a step forward in addressing a health problem that has been largely swept under the carpet until now. -France24

“We are recognising menstrual issues as part of the right to health and we are fighting against both the stigma and the silence,” Montero told AFP.

French feminists say it doesn’t go far enough.

“It’s good that women who have painful periods can take time off,” said Yasmine Candau, president of EndoFrance. “But simply offering a few days off every month without following it up with measures that will lead to treatment or care is not going to solve the problem and is insufficient for women who suffer from painful periods and conditions like endometriosis.”

Seriously?

“I think there is good intention behind this law, but I’m personally afraid that it will have negative effects on women,” said Fabienne El-Khoury, a spokeswoman for the feminist association Osez le Féminisme (Dare to be Feminist), who says that it’s “sending the message that pain is normal, thus making women’s pain invisible and normalised.”

What?

According to Latil, the feminist from Georgette Sand, “If we send home women suffering from painful periods, we’re merely hiding the problem rather than trying to resolve the problem.“

Ok, we’re out. Feel free to read the rest here.

A town of Putin-hating Brits have erected a golden penis-headed statue of the Russian president, and have set up a table from which residents can throw “free eggs” at it.

The effigy, located in the West Midlands town of Rowley Regis – on Bellend Road, was dubbed “BELLEND OF THE YEAR,” PA News Agency reports.

The organizer of the protest, who wishes to remain anonymous, told PA: “I needed to award somebody with the Bellend of the Year award and I thought there was one person who has universally been a bellend this year – and that’s Vladimir Putin,” adding “You could just throw eggs at the statue, which people did so willingly and quite happily.”

“It’s been very well received. One person said, ‘I thought it was my boss for a second’”

The co-ordinator said they plan to create and sell miniatures of the statue to raise money for a charity supporting Ukrainian refugees.

“I’ve seen over the course of the year the devastation that has happened in Ukraine and that so many lives that have been displaced as a result of the war,” they said.

“So I thought, ‘I really want to help out and I want to do my bit and I want to try and raise some money to help those individuals’.” -PA News

As far as how the statue was made, the organizer said: “I don’t know what the material is but I gave to a couple of artists and they cut it out over two or three weeks,” adding “Then we painted it and made a plinth, which obviously had the sign Bellend of the Year just to make sure there was absolutely no way to deny what he actually was.”

“The message is pretty simple – it’s exactly what it says on the tin.”

By Themis Karalis of Container News,

While freight rates have been dropping consistently on most trades, they have remained at high levels on the Transatlantic due to capacity issues.

However, according to Sea-Intelligence, this is about to change, as carriers are injecting serious amounts of capacity into the trade lane.

From North Europe, capacity growth is scheduled to begin spiking from mid-December 2022, reaching a temporary apex at the end of the month, with capacity growth at 43% Y/Y. Once we head into February, the current deployment indicates a capacity growth of 48%.

Compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic), from mid-December 2022, the operating capacity on North Europe-North America East Coast will shift from being roughly at the same level as in 2019 to being 20% higher.

“And as we get into mid-February 2023, this is poised to jump even further to 30%. However, this is not even the largest increase, as capacity from the Mediterranean will grow at an average of 25% over 2019 in January-February 2023,” said Sea-Intelligence’s report.

This is at odds with demand growth (or lack thereof), as demand was down by 3.4% Y/Y in Aug-Oct 2022, certainly not warranting the level of capacity injection currently planned, according to the Danish maritime data analysis firm.

In accordance with the calculation of vessel utilisation by matching capacity and demand on the head-haul, (with the assumption that demand continues to decline at the same -3.4% rate), and then matching it against the spot rates, we get the data in figure 1.

“There is a link between spot rates and vessel utilisation, but what is also clear is that there is a time lag of several months,” commented Alan Muprhy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, adding that “given this time lag, and based on the current drop in utilisation, spot rates on the Transatlantic are primed to collapse in the coming months.”

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

Somewhere in her private pantheon, Pallas Athena, Goddess of Geopolitics, is immensely enjoying the show.

No one ever lost money capitalizing on the unlimited nonsense spewed out by the collective deer-caught-in-the-headlights also known as Western mainstream media – complete with showering Person of the Year awards on a megalomaniac, cocaine-fueled lousy actor impersonating a warlord.

The non-stop trashy parade of Western military analysts is now “assessing” that the first targets of an incoming, joint Russia-Belarus attack on the 404 black hole formerly known as Ukraine will be Lviv, Lutsk, Rivne, Zhytomyr, and why not throw Kiev in the mix straight out of a second axis.

The Russian General Staff is attentively monitoring all the action and may even follow the advice of such “analysts”.

And then there’s outright panic, as the Ministry of Defense announced that the Strategic Missile Forces have loaded two Yars ICBMs into their intended silos. Cue to widespread shrieks of horror of the “Russia Readies Nuclear Missile Capable Of Striking Deep Into US” variety.

Some facts though never change. Number One is NATO as a figment of the collective West’s – extremely impaired – imagination. If push ever came to shove – as Straussian/neo-con armchair warriors hope and pray – Russia can conveniently defeat the whole of NATO as there is hardly anything “there”.

That, of course, would require a massive Russian mobilization. As it stands, Russia may look feeble in a few quarters as they activated at best 100,000 troops against possibly 1 million Ukrainian troops. It’s as if Moscow was not exactly seduced by the idea of “winning” – which may be the case, in a quite twisted way.

Even now, Moscow has not mobilized enough troops to occupy Ukraine – which, in theory, would be imperative to completely “denazify” the Kiev racket. The operative concept though is “in theory”. Moscow in fact is busy demonstrating a completely new theory – irrespective of the fact that a few exalted souls have been peddling that Putin should be replaced by the FSB’s Alexander Bortnikov.

“There will be nothing left of the enemy”

With its array of hypersonic missiles, Russia can knock out all NATO bridges, ports, airports as well as power stations, oil and natural gas storage, Rotterdam oil and natural gas installations, in a matter of a few hours. All energy production equipment across NATOstan would be destroyed. Europe would be shut off from natural resources. A dazed and confused Empire would be unable to move troops, any troops, to Europe.

And still provocations run unabated. The recent attack by Tu-141 Ukrainian drones against Engels-2 airbase was blamed by Moscow on Kiev – which predictably denied all responsibility. Yet what really mattered was Moscow’s strategic messaging to US/NATO, with Putin flirting with the notion that sooner or later the response may be up a serious notch in case US/NATO weaponry supplied to Kiev is used to strike deep into sensitive Russian Federation territory.

The current Russian doctrine even allows Moscow to respond with nuclear strikes; after all Engels-2 airbase is home to nuclear-capable bombers, prime strategic assets.

The drones were certainly launched by infiltrated agents inside Russian territory. If they had originated from outside Russia, and interpreted as nuclear missiles, that could have triggered the launch against NATOstan of hundreds of Russian nuclear missiles.

Putin himself made it – ominously – quite clear at the Eurasia Economic Council summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, a week ago:

“I assure you, after the early warning system receives a signal of a missile attack, hundreds of our missiles are in the air (…) It is impossible to stop them (…) There will be nothing left of the enemy, because it is impossible to intercept a hundred missiles. This, of course, is a deterrent – a serious deterrent.”

Not, of course, to the stupidity-corroded Straussian-neocon gang who are actually running American foreign “policy”.

It’s no wonder reliable Russian intel sources established that the missiles that hit Engels-2 were locally launched, though the Kiev regime desired it to be believed otherwise.

And that turns the whole charade into a Dadaist farce – with a dazed and confused Empire still bound to a maniac in Kiev who still believes that the Ukrainian S-300 that hit Poland came from Russia. Cue to the whole world – and not only Washington – as hostage to a “Person of the Year” maniac with the – virtual – power of provoking a worldwide nuclear war.

Red Napoleon in da house

Meanwhile, on the ground, Russia has gone Deep Operations Strategy, big time. In several spots along the extensive frontline, they attack the points that are most likely to draw out poor Ukrainian reserves hiding in the second line of defense. When reserves come out through barren, muddy lands and terrible roads to the rescue of frontline units, entire battalions are massacred.

Russians never go deep into the third line – where command and control may be located. What’s in play is attrition warfare under Deep Operations Strategy, straight out of the playbook of the legendary “Red Napoleon”, Field Marshall Mikhail Tukhachevsky.

Russia saves soldiers, personnel and equipment. The whole thing works wonders in difficult terrain where vehicles get bogged down in rainy roads. This rinse and repeat tactic, day in day out, for months on end has led to (at least) 400,000 Ukrainian casualties. Call it the epitome of Attritional Warfare.

Historians will relish that the whole scenario resembles the Battle of Agincourt – where wave after wave of French Knights (playing the role of present day Ukrainians, and Polish/NATO mercenaries) kept running uphill against English archers and knights who just stood still and let them come, hitting the second line again and again.

The difference, of course, is that Russians are employing attritional warfare tactics day after day for six months now, while Agincourt was just one battle in a single day. By the time this meat grinder is over an entire generation of Ukrainians and Poles will have gone to meet their maker.

The collective West’s myth of a Ukrainian “victory” against the Russian war of attrition does not even qualify as cosmic delusion. It’s a lousy, lethal joke. The only way out would be to sit down at the negotiating table, now, before the hammer (the next Russian offensive) comes down on the anvil (the existing frontline).

But NATO, of course, as Stultifying Stoltenberg keeps reminding the world, does not do negotiations.

Which, in a sense, may be a blessing, as NATO may end up breaking up in myriad pieces, totally humiliated on the ground despite all its elaborate warmongering plans.

Andrei Martyanov has been peerless tracking the collective West’s complete economic, moral, intellectual – and most of all military – degradation, everything drenched in lies, lousy P.R. twists and “stupefying incompetence across the board.”

All this while Russia prepares “for yet another ‘defeat’, like retaking all of Donbass and then… Who knows what then. A quick win for Russia would be a loss because NATO would still exist. No, Russia has to pace this so as it sucks in NATO into the grinder.”

Somewhere in her private pantheon, Pallas Athena, Goddess of Geopolitics, is immensely enjoying the show. Oh, wait; she’s actually reincarnated, and her name is Maria Zakharova.

Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In preparation for the expiration of Title 42 next week, the Texas Military Department announced Dec. 16 that it would be mobilizing members of the Texas National Guard to combat the impending surge of illegal immigrants at the border.

Forces to be deployed include elements of the 136th Airlift Wing, Texas Air National Guard, and the 236th Military Police Company.

“These actions are part of a larger strategy to use every available tool to fight back against the record-breaking level of illegal immigration and transnational criminal activity,” the department advised in a statement.

Created under President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944, Title 42 empowers federal health authorities to prohibit immigrants from entering the United States to prevent the spread of contagious diseases.

In March 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) invoked Title 42 at the onset of the COVID pandemic. The emergency order is set to expire on Dec. 21.

“The end of Title 42 could lead to a massive influx of illegal immigrants allowing criminals to exploit gaps while federal authorities are inundated with migrant processing,” the department added.

In preparation for that possibility, Col. Matt Groves, 136^th Airlift Wing commander, said that 136^th Airlift Wing C-130J cargo aircraft, air crews, support, and response airmen had been placed on standby, ready to assist the governor in whatever way he might require.

“State support is a key capability of the National Guard, and our Texas Citizen Airmen are trained and ready to respond to our citizens, whether in the aftermath of a hurricane, a pandemic, or any other crisis scenario,” Groves said.

Legal Challenges

In May, the Biden administration was blocked from ending Title 42 removals by a nationwide injunction issued by U.S. District Judge Robert Summerhays, an appointee of former President Donald Trump. That case has not yet been set for argument.

However, on Nov. 16, U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan—an appointee of former President Bill Clinton—gave the U.S. government five weeks to end the policy after ruling that it was “arbitrary and capricious” in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act.

“It is unreasonable for the CDC to assume that it can ignore the consequences of any actions it chooses to take in the pursuit of fulfilling its goals, particularly when those actions included the extraordinary decision to suspend the codified procedural and substantive rights of noncitizens seeking safe harbor,” Sullivan wrote in issuing the ruling.

The judge also found that the CDC had failed to provide an adequate explanation of why alternative prevention measures, like increased vaccinations and outdoor processing, were not feasible.

The ACLU, which led the legal challenge against Title 42 removals, praised the judge’s decision, describing the policy as “inhumane and driven purely by politics.”

On Dec. 7, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said that it planned to appeal the decision.

Bracing for Impact

According to a DHS report from earlier this year, the Biden administration estimates that there may be up to 18,000 border crossings a day after Title 42 is lifted.

And recent events have done little to alleviate that concern. On Monday, El Paso, Texas, experienced one of the largest single crossings that area has ever seen when more than 1,500 people illegally crossed into the city from Mexico.

Further, in October, an average of nearly 13,000 illegal immigrants per week were apprehended in El Paso.

Fearing an even greater surge may be on the horizon, Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Reps. Tony Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) urged Biden to extend the Title 42 policy in a Tuesday letter (pdf).

“We have a crisis at our southern border,” the legislators wrote. “Never before in our nation’s history have we experienced this scope and scale of illegal border crossings, and we remain concerned that your administration has not provided sufficient support or resources to the men and women of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) who are tasked with maintaining border security.”

Noting that congressional negotiations to enact bipartisan legislation on the matter would take time, the lawmakers appealed to Biden to do “everything within [his] power” to extend the order in the interim.

“While admittedly imperfect, termination of the CDC’s Title 42 order at this time will result in a complete loss of operational control over the southern border, a profoundly negative impact on border communities, and significant suffering and fatalities among the migrants unlawfully entering the United States,” they added.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the White House for comment.

Two men accused of being senior members of an international crime syndicate have been charged in Taiwan over a plot to smuggle 30g (66 lbs) of methamphetamine into Western Australia inside of 3D printers.

On Saturday, authorities announced that two men, aged 33 and 36, were arrested in July and October of this year after the Australian federal police identified them as part of Operation Ironside – a sting between the AFP and US FBI in which they intercepted every single message posted via the AnOm encrypted communications platform for three years beginning in 2018, The Guardian reports.

AFP assistant commissioner Pryce Scanlan said one of the men came to the AFP’s attention after communications intercepted on An0m allegedly indicated he had coordinated more than 30 methamphetamine importations into Australia in 2020.

“Intelligence indicates he and his syndicate were attempting to import quantities of up to 100kg at a time,” said Scanlan. “We suspect they were operating long before we started monitoring them and were involved in multiple other drug trafficking plots targeting Australia.”

The plot was discovered by the AFP in partnership with the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC), who discovered the 3D printer plot.

The drugs were intercepted in the US before the reached Australia, while the Taiwan Criminal Investigation Bureau was able to arrest the 33-year-old suspect in late July in New Taipei City.

The 36-year-old, alleged to be the right-hand man of the first arrestee, was found in Taoyuan City, Taiwan and arrested in early October, according to the AFP. They have both been charged with illegal transportation of a category 2 narcotic and face life in prison if convicted in Taiwan.

“This organised crime group has caused significant harm to the Australian community for a number of years, as well as causing harm offshore,” said Scanlan, who added that the AFP is still investigating potential links to the crime syndicate over foiled imports into Western Australia.

“We allege this operation has taken out two senior members of a TSOC [transnational serious and organised crime] syndicate and disrupted their gateway to import illicit commodities into Australia, which is a significant win for the community.”

According to the AFP, the street value of the seized drugs was around $45 million.

Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

William Burns, the director of CIA, has warned about children being potentially harmed by spending time on TikTok and talked about the dangers posed by the app that is owned by a China-based company.

In a recent interview with PBS, Burns was asked about his recommendation to people regarding their kids’ usage of TikTok.

“I’d be really careful,” he replied.

When asked if he would add anything more, Burns responded, “No, really careful.” He said it was “genuinely troubling” how the Chinese government is able to manipulate TikTok.

“Because the parent company of TikTok is a Chinese company, the Chinese government is able to insist upon extracting the private data of a lot of TikTok users in this country, and also to shape the content of what goes on to TikTok as well to suit the interests of the Chinese leadership. I think those are real challenges and a source of real concern,” he said.

In a recent interview with Fox News, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) called for banning TikTok, arguing that the app exposes minors to “violent, depraved, degrading sexual material,” and body image issues for young girls. This is the kind of stuff that Beijing would “never” let Chinese teenagers watch. TikTok is also a risk to data security and privacy, he noted.

Tiktok’s algorithm is programmed in such a way that the app displays different content, and recommendations, for Americans compared to Chinese users.

“If you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, why in the world would we allow a Chinese-owned company, which has to answer to the Chinese Communists, to be one of the largest media platforms in our country?” Cotton asked.

“Would we ever have allowed Soviet Russia to own a major newspaper or a major broadcast network during the Cold War? Of course we wouldn’t have.”

Cotton went on to criticize the Biden administration for “sending signals” that it might tolerate the use of TikTok in the United States despite the “grave threats” the app poses to the nation.

Teenage Self-Harm

Burns’ warning about TikTok use comes as a new report by the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) found that the app is pushing self-harm and eating disorder content into children’s feeds. Imran Ahmed, chief exec of CCDH, insisted that TikTok was designed to influence young users into giving up their time and attention.

The app is “poisoning” children’s minds, promoting “hatred” of their own bodies, and pushing suggestions of self-harm and potentially deadly attitudes towards food, he stated.

“Parents will be shocked to learn the truth and will be furious that lawmakers are failing to protect young people from Big Tech billionaires, their unaccountable social media apps, and increasingly aggressive algorithms,” Ahmed said.

Last month, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told Fox News that TikTok is an “enormous threat.” He also admitted that former President Donald Trump was “right” about the danger the app posed to America.

“So, if you’re a parent, and you’ve got a kid on TikTok, I would be very, very concerned. All of that data that your child is inputting and receiving is being stored somewhere in Beijing.”

Lawsuits

The state of Indiana has filed two lawsuits against TikTok, blaming the social media app for falsely claiming it is safe for children and illicitly sending data of Americans to China.

In a statement, Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita called TikTok a “malicious and menacing threat” that the company knows will inflict harm on its users.

“With this pair of lawsuits, we hope to force TikTok to stop its false, deceptive, and misleading practices, which violate Indiana law,” Rokita said.

Republican governors from states like Iowa, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, South Carolina, and Maryland have announced a ban on the use of TikTok by state agencies or on government devices due to security concerns.

Elon Musk, perhaps finally fed up with micromanaging twitter or just really drunk after partying with Qatari royals (and Jared) after today’s terrific World Cup Final…

…  has asked Twitter users and his 122 million followers whether he should step down as head of the social media site and pledged that he would abide by the result of the 12 hour unscientific poll. Four hours into the vote, with some 9 million votes cast, 56.7% of those polled said Musk should, in fact, stand down. It wasn’t clear what percentage of bots of mailed in ballots had been cast.

Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of this poll.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 18, 2022

Musk prefaced the vote by tweeting that “Going forward, there will be a vote for major policy changes. My apologies. Won’t happen again.”

Subsequently, in response to tweeted comments that Musk should “hire someone as Twitter CEO… that way when things go wrong you can blame that person, but you still ultimate control as the owner”, the billionaire responded that “The question is not finding a CEO, the question is finding a CEO who can keep Twitter alive.”

The question is not finding a CEO, the question is finding a CEO who can keep Twitter alive

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 18, 2022

Musk also clarified to prospective replacements that any new CEO “must like pain a lot. One catch: you have to invest your life savings in Twitter and it has been in the fast lane to bankruptcy since May. Still want the job?”

You must like pain a lot. One catch: you have to invest your life savings in Twitter and it has been in the fast lane to bankruptcy since May. Still want the job?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 18, 2022

Musk then stated that the whole exercise is a Catch 22 as “No one wants the job who can actually keep Twitter alive. There is no successor.” Which then begs the question how Musk will abide by a poll that seeks his replacement if there is “no successor” in mind.

No one wants the job who can actually keep Twitter alive. There is no successor.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 19, 2022

He then doubled down by paraphrasing Jack Handey and, of course, Gladiator:

Those who want power are the ones who least deserve it

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 19, 2022

Whether Musk was drunk or not when he sent out the tweet (early am Qatari time), the outcome as some cynics have noted, is unlikely to have any material impact on what happens at twitter.

Let me predict the consequences of this poll:

If „yes“, Elon will be CEO for a few months longer until he finds a devoted successor.

If „no“, Elon will be CEO for a few months longer until he finds a devoted successor.

— Zsolt Wilhelm (@ZsoltWilhelm) December 18, 2022

Musk’s pledge to hold votes on policy changes came after Twitter on Sunday announced it will remove accounts “created solely” to promote other social media platforms. Accounts promoting rivals and containing links to sites such as Facebook, Instagram and Mastodon will be taken down, the company said. A few hours later the tweet revealing that policy change was deleted.

These tweets appear to have been deleted. pic.twitter.com/8C7TnvuKmb

— Evan McMurry (@evanmcmurry) December 19, 2022