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“Madness”: France, Croatia Deny ‘West At War With Russia’ After German Foreign Minister Sparks Outrage

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“Madness”: France, Croatia Deny ‘West At War With Russia’ After German Foreign Minister Sparks Outrage

On Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ignited a firestorm of debate when she stated that Western allies are fighting a war against Russia – causing many to suggest that she essentially ‘declared war’ on Russia, and contradicting the official stance by saying the quiet part out loud.

Annalena Baerbock, Berlin, Germany, 6/8/2018

“And therefore I’ve said already in the last days – yes, we have to do more to defend Ukraine. Yes, we have to do more also on tanks,” she during a Tuesday keynote address at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg, France – adding “But the most important and the crucial part is that we do it together and that we do not do the blame game in Europe, because we are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other.

Baerbock’s comments played right into Russia’s position that they are in a proxy war with the West which was triggered by decades of NATO expansion to their doorstep, vs. the West’s position that they’re simply supporting Ukraine against an unprovoked invasion.

Of note, on Wednesday, Washington announced that it would send more than 30 M1 Abrams tanks to Kiev, while Berlin committed to a dozen Leopard II panzers, while encouraging Poland and other EU and NATO members to provide similar support. France, meanwhile, is “continuing our analysis” of the proposal to send tanks to Ukraine, after already promising several AMX-10 “light tanks” earlier this month.

NATO members France and Croatia have explicitly refuted Baerbock.

“We are not at war with Russia and none of our partners are,” said French ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre on Thursday, per AFP. “The delivery of military equipment… does not constitute co-belligerence.”

Anne-Claire Legendre

Croatian President Zoran Milanovic called Baerbock’s comments “madness.”

“Now the German foreign minister says we must be united, because I quote, we are at war with Russia. I didn’t know that,” he said, adding “Maybe Germany is at war with Russia, but then, good luck, maybe this time it turns out better than 70-odd years ago.”

Zoran Milanović

“If we are at war with Russia, then let’s see what we need to do. But we won’t ask Germany for its opinion,” Milanovic asserted. “Let them figure out who is the actual chancellor over there. I’ve been in politics for a long time, and our country has been through a lot, but I’ve never seen this kind of madness before,” he continued.

“Do you want us to enter the war?” he asked during a visit to the port city of Split, adding that Croatia “should in no way help” Ukraine militarily, Summit News reports.

Serbian foreign minister Ivica Dacic, meanwhile, commented on the US-EU sanctions against Russia, saying that the embargo on Moscow would harm Belgrade.

Dacic made the comments on Thursday from Ankara after meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu.

Last week the European Parliament demanded that Belgrade enter into a “full alignment” with the bloc’s foreign and security policy, and join the embargo.

According to Dacic, Serbia has not joined out of “national and state interests, economic cooperation, as well as problems Serbia has with Kosovo,” referring to the NATO-backed breakaway province.

“It would be inappropriate for Serbia to sanction Russia now, and it would be harmful to our interests,” he said, adding “That doesn’t mean we won’t do everything to clearly say we don’t support the infringement of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and help as much as we can.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 09:50

Watch: Rand Paul Warns ‘Over-Classification’ Being Used To Cover Up COVID Lab Leak

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Watch: Rand Paul Warns ‘Over-Classification’ Being Used To Cover Up COVID Lab Leak

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Rand Paul warned Wednesday that over classification of information is being used to avoid oversight and institute cover ups, such as regarding the origins of COVID.

Appearing on Newsmax TV’s “Eric Bolling The Balance,” Paul explained “I think there’s an overclassification problem here. Everything’s classified. And in all likelihood, what we’ll find is this is not some sort of organized scheme to have the secrets to the nuclear weapon in [Biden’s] Corvette. I think it’s more likely than not that we’ve classified so many documents that it’s hard to find documents that are not classified.”

He continued, “The one problem with classifying so much is that there is, right now, to my knowledge, pretty good information out there in the intelligence community about the virus originating from the lab in China, and yet they classify it to try to prohibit people [like] me giving you the information that we already know that this came from a lab. And so this is a real problem.”

“We need to allow less classification so the American people can understand more about what’s going on with their government,” Paul urged.

He added, “I go to classified hearings, and I haven’t actually been to a classified hearing where I actually thought I heard a secret, to tell you the truth.”

Paul further noted that when President Trump was found to have some documents, “the left-wing media acted as if oh, these are the Manhattan Project. This is the secrets to the nuclear weapon… Really, most of the stuff we see is not really that secret. But it’s all stamped that way.”

“The intelligence community does this so they have more power and we have less power,” the Senator continued, adding “I have long argued that Congress needs to know more and the American people need to know more about what the CIA does, what the FBI does. Because we can’t oversee them, we can’t have oversight and reform if we don’t know what they’re doing.”

“They avoid oversight by classifying things, and often there’s a policy decision like, for example, with COVID, we need to know if COVID came from a lab so we can prevent this from happening again. Some of this is being stymied by the intelligence agencies classifying things that need to be declassified,” Paul further asserted.

Watch:

Paul has previously labeled the subterfuge over the coronavirus lab leak as “the biggest coverup in the history of science,” and has vowed to continue to expose the origins of the pandemic and uncover a paper trail that he is positive will lead back to the Wuhan lab research funded by Anthony Fauci and the National Institutes of Health.

Video: Rand Paul Promises To ‘Find The Paper Trail’ For Lab Leak COVID Origin

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Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 09:35

CBOE CEO Aims To List Additional Tokens As Institutions Seek Reliable Crypto Counterparties

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CBOE CEO Aims To List Additional Tokens As Institutions Seek Reliable Crypto Counterparties

It’s a vote of confidence for crypto when the space needs it most…

Ed Tilly, Chief Executive Officer at Cboe Global Markets Inc., said this week he wants to list more token on the company’s crypto exchange in the wake of the FTX blowup and additional, ongoing blowups in the space.

Tilly said this week that established firms from the traditional world of finance are seeking “reliable counterparties” and that his company wants to “capitalize” on that demand, a report from Bloomberg said on Thursday.

Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ether, Litecoin and USD Coin already trade on Cboe Digital, the report says. 

In terms of an opportunistic business opportunity, the timing couldn’t be better for Cboe now that major exchange FTX has collapsed and is currently in the midst of bankruptcy proceedings. Cboe would likely have an opportunity not only to capture some of FTX’s business, but to help restore credibility to crypto in general. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities & Exchange Commission are now seeking to regulate crypto, the report says, would could add another much-needed layer of credibility to the space. 

Tilly commented: “We will be taking this slowly as the SEC and the CFTC debate jurisdictional oversight, but our goal is, of course, to offer more and more exposures than the current five tokens we do today.”

The report says that Cboe “is also planning to list margin futures on its CFTC-regulated entity, and is working to get approval from the regulator” to do so. The details of these contracts were described by Bloomberg: 

These contracts would be less capital intensive to trade and would require a broker as intermediary.  The bourse’s current Bitcoin and Ether futures require customers to outlay the full amount of the contract upfront. The margin model, used in the commodities markets, requires just a percentage of the total as collateral.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 09:14

Gaetz Introduces Resolution To Deny Schiff Access To Classified Information

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Gaetz Introduces Resolution To Deny Schiff Access To Classified Information

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) introduced a resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday calling for an investigation into Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and proposed he be denied access to classified information.

The resolution (pdf), titled “Preventing Extreme Negligence with Classified Information Licenses Resolution,” or “PENCIL Resolution,” is an updated version of a similar resolution Gaetz introduced in 2019.

It calls for Schiff to be denied access to classified information and investigated by the House Ethics Committee. It also calls for his comments on the discredited allegations that Russia colluded with the Trump campaign in 2016 to be struck from the official record.

“Congressman Adam Schiff led the effort for years to weaponize lies from the Clinton campaign and a corrupt Department of Justice to smear President [Donald] Trump while destroying any trust the country had left in America’s intelligence agencies,” Gaetz said in a statement.

“Speaker McCarthy kept his promise to remove Rep. Schiff from the Intelligence Committee, and with the PENCIL Resolution, we will express the sense of Congress that he should be barred from accessing any classified information at all,” he continued. “He can no longer be trusted by his colleagues in Congress or the American people.”

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy officially rejected Schiff for a seat on the House Intelligence Committee on Jan. 24, having argued that Schiff “lied to the American public.”

The day before McCarthy denied Schiff a seat, Charles McGonigal, a former FBI agent who played a role in investigating Trump’s 2016 campaign advisers Carter Page and George Papadopoulos over the collusion allegations, was himself arrested for alleged ties to a Russian oligarch.

The U.S. Department of Justice announced on Jan. 23 that McGonigal had been charged with violating and conspiring to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act by laundering money on behalf of Oleg Deripaska, a sanctioned Russian billionaire.

Gaetz argued that McGonigal’s arrest “proved that the very people investigating President Trump for Russian collusion were themselves taking orders from Russian oligarchs.”

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) listens during the third hearing by the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol in the Cannon House Office Building in Washington on June 16, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

PENCIL Resolution

Schiff served on the Intelligence Committee since January 2015, first as the ranking minority member when Republicans were last in the majority, then as chairman from January 2019 to Jan. 3, 2023, when Democrats were in the majority.

The Democrat was one of eight members, referred to by Gaetz as the “Gang of Eight,” who had access to critical and sensitive intelligence information that other members of Congress and the American people did not have clearance to access.

Gaetz’s resolution states that during his tenure, Schiff made false claims about collusion between Trump and Russia during the 2016 election, despite the principal conclusions of the Mueller Report determining that there was no criminal collusion.

In December 2017, Schiff said during an interview with CNN: “The Russians offered help, the campaign accepted help. The Russians gave help, and the president made full use of that help.” The resolution additionally notes that Schiff incorrectly claimed there was “clear evidence on the issue of collusion.”

Further, the resolution states that Schiff has been untrustworthy by advancing lies about Trump and that Schiff has attempted to cover his abuse of discretion with legislation.

In November 2020, Schiff’s office demanded Twitter remove “any and all content” by alleged harassers and spreaders of so-called misinformation about the committee’s staff. This included removing content created by State Department staffers that challenged the Russia collusion narrative. His office also called for the suspension of “many” accounts.

Ultimately, the resolution states that Schiff “can no longer be trusted by his colleagues in Congress or the American people.”

The Epoch Times contacted Schiff’s office for comment.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 08:53

Americans’ Spending Drops Again In December, Fed’s Favorite Inflation Signal Slows

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Americans’ Spending Drops Again In December, Fed’s Favorite Inflation Signal Slows

The headline from this morning’s income and spending data is The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE Deflator – printed pretty much in line with expectations (headline up 0.1% MoM was marginally hotter than expected). The year-over-year prints dropped to 5.0% and 4.4% respectively for headline and core – while both lower and trending down from the highs last year, these prints are still the highest since 1991…

Source: Bloomberg

Americans’ income was expected to rise 0.2% MoM and spending drop 0.1% MoM and while incomes met expectations, spending was weaker than expected (-0.2% MoM). That is the second straight month of spending declines…

Source: Bloomberg

On a year-over-year basis, spending growth continues to outpace income growth…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, govt wages and salaries are growing faster than those of private workers for the first time since March 2020:

  • Private workers wage growth Dec 4.4%, vs 5.1% in Nov

  • Govt workers wage growth Dec 4.8%, vs 4.9% in Nov

All of which leaves the personal savings rate languishing near record lows (although it did improve from 2.9% to 3.4% – its highest since May 2022 – as credit card debt hits record highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

We note that the savings rate was revised significantly higher in the last two months… (as credit card debt has soared)…

Does that really sound like the ‘strong consumer’ we keep being told about? It sounds like the consumer is finally hitting their limit on spending (but no slowdown in credit card spending) and is pulling back… not a good sign for GDP.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 08:39

Brits Aren’t Convinced About Alternative Healing

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Brits Aren’t Convinced About Alternative Healing

Views around medicine differ greatly around the world.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows, using data from Statista’s Consumer Insights, a greater share of urban respondents in Vietnam (25 percent), Turkey (23 percent) and China (22 percent) would opt for alternative healing methods over conventional medicine than in other countries.

Infographic: Brits Aren't Convinced About Alternative Healing | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In Finland, for example, alternative forms of medicine are far less popular, with only 8 percent of Finns saying they would pick them if they had the choice.

Of the selected countries, Brits were some of the least open to alternative medicine forms, with only one in ten saying they would choose it.

The United States is a different story, however, with nearly double the share of people picking it.

Alternative medicines include, but are not limited to, practices such as massages, acupuncture, tai chi, herbal medicines and yoga.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 05:45

How Will Maersk-MSC Split Redraw Container Shipping Landscape

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How Will Maersk-MSC Split Redraw Container Shipping Landscape

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

The decision by MSC and Maersk — the world’s two largest container lines — to terminate the 2M vessel-sharing alliance was predictable. The bigger surprise will be what happens next.

Will both MSC and Maersk go it alone after 2M ends in January 2025? Will Maersk join another alliance or create a new one? How will this affect the remaining two global alliances: Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance? And how will it affect cargo shipper pricing?

According to Alphaliner, MSC has acquired 271 secondhand ships since August 2020, with capacity of just over 1 million twenty-foot equivalent units. MSC’s recent secondhand acquisitions exceed the entire capacity of HMM, the world’s eighth-largest carrier.

MSC has over 1.8 million TEUs of newbuild capacity on order, more than double the orderbook of any other carrier. Its orderbook capacity is higher than the existing tonnage of Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s fourth-largest shipping line.

“To me, it is obvious that MSC will go on its own,” Alphaliner shipping analyst and Europe editor Stefan Verberckmoes told American Shipper. “It will have enough resources to offer a worldwide network without any partners, which is what it was used to doing before it joined 2M in 2015.

“It is indeed no surprise [that 2M will end],” said Verberckmoes. “That was really a forced marriage, because at that time, economies of scale were very important, everybody wanted to have large vessels, and the only way to fill them was to cooperate. Now times are completely different. MSC is now able to fly on its own wings.”

Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy said in an interview with American Shipper: “If MSC was going to invest itself out of the alliance, it has done all the right things, through its secondhand purchases and newbuilding expansion.”

Questions on Maersk

In sharp contrast to MSC, Maersk has kept its fleet capacity flat over the past three years. It focused instead on being an end-to-end logistics integrator, seeking to earn more from long-term customers’ logistics spend.

“For Maersk, the question is completely different,” said Verberckmoes. “They have chosen another strategy and not focused on fleet expansion, so if they want to keep the same network they have now, they need to find a replacement. They will have to review their options.”

American Shipper asked Maersk whether it could provide the same level of service coverage and quality to its customers post-2M without a new alliance partner, and whether it was committed to finding an alliance replacement.

The company responded: “Maersk will continue to be active in vessel sharing agreements [VSAs]. We are already active in over 40 VSAs in other geographies and we remain open to more targeted VSAs than the broad scope of 2M after the agreement ends in 2025.”

For several reasons, Murphy believes it is unlikely that Maersk will replace MSC with a major carrier in a new alliance, or join an existing alliance. 

“What I think is more likely is that Maersk will do VSAs. You see how they’ve managed to integrate with Zim [NYSE: ZIM], which is not a 2M member, on the Asia-East Coast trade. They can also do slot charters with THE Alliance on some trades and slot charters with Ocean Alliance on others.

“Rather than formally being in an alliance, I think it’s more likely they will focus on the key markets where they can provide end-to-end services and then find [VSA and slot-charter] partners in the other markets.”

Strategies ‘completely at odds’

One difficulty Maersk faces in replacing MSC relates to a core problem with 2M itself. “The strategic focuses of the two shipping lines have been completely at odds with each other,” explained Murphy.

“Maersk has staked everything on being an end-to-end logistics integrator. If you’re focused on the customer experience and end-to-end logistics, ocean transport becomes just a cog in a big machine. That cog just needs to work. You don’t need to necessarily make money on it because you’re making money on end-to-end logistics.

“But MSC’s focus has seemingly been: We need to make money as a vessel operator. That might very well mean blanking [canceling] sailings at a much higher rate and not wasting money on schedule recovery. In some trades where MSC operates independently, it looks more like tramp [unscheduled] than liner service.

“These two strategies have led to friction within the alliance. I wouldn’t say anybody is wrong here. It’s just that they don’t seem to be a good match.”

Maersk is much more focused on the end-to-end integrator model than any other carrier. So, replacing MSC would present Maersk with the same friction yet again.

“Joining another alliance is very unlikely although not impossible,” said Murphy. “But it would just open Maersk up to all of the challenges it already had with MSC.”

Other hurdles to replacing MSC

Several analysts believe that the 2M divorce will ultimately lead to a broader reshuffling of alliances.

Vespucci Maritime’s Lars Jensen — who has been predicting the demise of 2M for months —  said in an online post, “My view is that this is only the beginning of a reshaping of the alliance/VSA constellations, especially on the major east-west trades. In essence, this should be seen as the first domino of many to fall over the next one to two years.”

According to Verberckmoes, “In every alliance breakup, there is always an opening for new perspectives. We have seen in the past that every change in big alliance structures might trigger other changes.”

But Murphy pointed to multiple hurdles, beyond the issue of Maersk’s integrator strategy. 

In the case of 2M, Maersk and MSC were roughly equal-sized partners. Maersk would be the dominant partner of any alliance it joined. “You can bring in a Hyundai [HMM], because they’re tagging along, but to bring in an alliance partner that will now dominate the alliance would be very difficult,” he said.

There’s also the regulatory challenge. Chinese regulators barred the proposed P3 alliance among MSC, Maersk and CMA CGM, prior to the formation of 2M. “Can you disallow P3 but allow the Ocean Alliance plus Maersk? I can’t see that,” said Murphy.

Consultancy Drewry said in a research note on Wednesday, “Competition authorities will probably block any move [by Maersk] to join one of the other two alliances, which are contractually committed beyond the termination of 2M. Ocean Alliance runs to 2027 and THE Alliance to 2030.”

Another possibility is that Maersk could woo away a carrier in one of the two remaining alliances, such as France’s CMA CGM, and create a new alliance. “That’s not impossible, because CMA CGM and Maersk cooperated in the past, prior to P3. But there are a lot of challenges with siphoning off someone like CMA CGM,” said Murphy.

Cycle timing

Yet another complication is cycle timing. “You have to remember that alliances were the consequence of massive oversupply,” said Murphy. Carriers overordered large-size vessels and needed alliances to fill them effectively.

“Alliances come under pressure when things are going really well,” he continued. “There’s probably many a carrier that felt hemmed in and restricted by alliance obligations during the pandemic, because they couldn’t make tactical decisions on their own.

“Are things going to go well for shipping lines over the next two years? Probably not. In my opinion, we’re heading into a repeat of 2015-16, with massive oversupply and freight rates at or below cost. It’s going to be a bad two or three years.

“So, it makes no sense to leave an alliance now. But they’re not leaving an alliance now. They’re leaving in two years. It might make sense then. There is an expectation that at some point, [the market] will turn again. I assume that both shipping lines believe that when it does, they will be better positioned outside of an alliance.”

As for Maersk finding a new alliance home, the market outlook is highly uncertain, raising questions about whether other carriers would be willing to play the game of alliance “musical chairs” in the midst of a container shipping recession.

“I think the other alliance [partners] will be cautious about making any major changes now, heading into what is clearly a bear market,” said Murphy.

Bearish or bullish for rates?

Drewry outlined two scenarios in which the end of 2M could lead to lower shipping costs.

In one, an independent MSC faced with rapid fleet growth could “return to its old market-share/low-cost model, which could destabilize the market.”

In another, Drewry speculated that “a radical shake-up of the alliances” while “a remote possibility,” could “lead to carnage in the freight-rate market as new members court shippers over to their new teams.”

But Verberckmoes and Murphy do not see the alliance situation lowering shipping costs.

“I don’t think that alliances have had an impact on price,” said Verberckmoes. “If prices are declining, that means one or two carriers are going for market share, and I don’t think alliance changes have any effect on that. When it comes to rates, it is always the market that decides.”

According to Murphy, “A lot of customers hate alliances and believe them to be the source of all evil in the world. I think a lot of shippers will look at this [the 2M breakup] and think this is good for them.

“That depends on what they mean by ‘good.’ If they mean ‘cheap,’ probably not. In every simulation we’ve done where we look at how you could operate services more independently, with fewer VSAs and fewer alliances, the price goes up.”

He argued that alliances have led to reduced freight costs, in part because members of alliances must compete with each other on price while providing the same ocean service. “In an alliance, you lose all product differentiation on your liner product,” said Murphy. “You’re offering the exact same product — which was a massive driver of very low freight rates pre-pandemic.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 05:00

Where Smoking Is Still Popular

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Where Smoking Is Still Popular

Looked at globally, smoking cigarettes is gradually becoming a thing of the past, but as survey data from Statista Consumer Insights shows, the habit is dying hard in some countries.

As Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports, although aggressive pushes by the tobacco industry in some regions has led to recent rises in use among the population there, ‘last bastions’ of cigarette smoking are still holding on in already established markets.

Infographic: Where Smoking Is Still Popular | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Russia is one such place, where 46 percent admitted to smoking cigarettes at least occasionally.

In Western Europe, Spanish respondents displayed similarly high levels of use (42 percent), while Germany was also close behind with 40 percent.

Kicking the habit as a nation to a greater degree were Canada and the United Kingdom, where a smaller share said they smoke – yet the proportions here were still at 30 percent.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 04:15

Lockheed Says It’s Ready With F-16s For Ukraine

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Lockheed Says It’s Ready With F-16s For Ukraine

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Lockheed Martin has said that it’s ready to meet demands for F-16 fighter jets if the US and its allies choose to ship them to Ukraine.

So far, the US and its allies have been hesitant to send fighter jets to Ukraine due to concerns that they could be used to target Russian territory. But the Western powers seem less and less concerned about escalation as the US and Germany have now pledged to send their main battle tanks.

Biden to Lockheed workers in May: “You’re making a gigantic difference for these poor sons-of-guns who are under such enormous pressure and firepower.” via Reuters

Frank St. John, chief operating officer of Lockheed, told Financial Times that there has been a “lot of conversation about third-party transfer of F-16s,” which would involve European nations armed with the F-16 shipping them to Ukraine.

St. John said Lockheed wasn’t involved in the conversations but was preparing for the eventuality. He said the arms maker was “going to be ramping production on F-16s in Greenville [South Carolina] to get to the place where we will be able to backfill pretty capably any countries that choose to do third-party transfers to help with the current conflict.”

The Netherlands expressed openness to sending its F-16s to Ukraine last week, with the Dutch foreign minister saying it would look at any requests for the aircraft with an “open mind.” Another option could be for former Warsaw pact countries that are now NATO members to send their older Soviet-made MiG fighter jets to Ukraine and replace them with F-16s or other modern Western-made aircraft.

A Ukrainian Air Force spokesman claimed on Tuesday that the US and Ukraine have already determined an aircraft that Washington will provide for Kyiv. The spokesman didn’t specify which one, and there’s been no sign from the American side has agreed to send planes.

Throughout the war, Ukraine has been lobbying for the US to provide F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, which would involve months of training for Ukrainian forces. The US has already pledged weapons systems that require extensive training, including the Patriot missile defense systems and M1 Abrams tanks.

Lockheed Martin has benefited greatly from the war in Ukraine as many of its weapons systems are now in high demand, including the HIMARS rocket systems and Javelin anti-tank missiles. President Biden showed his appreciation for the arms maker last May when he visited a Lockheed Martin plant producing Javelins and said, “thank you, thank you, thank you.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 03:30

In Unexpected Swing, Germany’s Public Now Favors Nuclear Power

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In Unexpected Swing, Germany’s Public Now Favors Nuclear Power

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

  • The energy crisis in Europe has changed the public opinion in Germany on nuclear power.

  • The German Green Party and Social Democrats have long supported a move away from nuclear energy.

  • Nuclear energy is seen as a preferable energy source to a fall back to burning coal.

For decades, Germany has maintained a love-hate relationship with nuclear power. Currently, Germany has three existing nuclear reactors that produce ~6% of the country’s power supply, a far cry from the 1990s when 19 nuclear power plants produced about a third of the country’s electricity supply. 

The genesis of the current state of affairs can be traced back to 1998 when a new center-left government consisting of the Greens party and Social Democrats started demanding that the country moves away from nuclear power, a long-held objective of the Greens. The Greens became prominent in the 1980s after they started rallying against the dangers of nuclear energy and nuclear weapons against the backdrop of the Cold War. Indeed, the last new nuclear plants to be built in Germany date back to 2002 after which plans were put in place to phase out all existing plants over the next few decades.

However, the tide turned again in 2010 after a coalition of the liberal Free Democratic Party and the conservative Christian Democrats rose to power and extended the use of nuclear energy in Germany by up to 14 years. But alas, the newfound love for nuclear power was not to last: a year later, explosions and meltdowns at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan soured the public’s mood on nuclear power and forced Germany to do another about-face on this policy. Berlin then returned to the original plan for a nuclear phaseout by the end of 2022.

But Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing a rethink of energy security not only in Germany but also by the entire continent. Up until last year, Germany and Russia were major energy partners, with the latter providing the country with the majority of its oil and natural gas. But Russia’s war has led to Europe and Germany scrambling for alternative supplies as winter  looms. Germany is now rethinking its nuclear phaseout strategy, and the public is falling in line.

We will need more electric power in the future. That’s a fact. And 6% can be a lot to miss when there is nothing new [to replace it]. We’d be losing 6% when we really will need more,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has told Deutsche Welle. Previously, the majority of the public was in favor of the nuclear phaseout in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster; now over 80% are in favor of extending the lifespan of Germany’s existing nuclear reactors.

Nuclear energy is seen as a preferable energy source to a fall back to burning coal.  According to Dutch-based anti-nuclear group WISE, nuclear plants produce 117 grams of CO2 emissions per kilowatt-hour, much lower compared to burning lignite which emits over 1,000 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour.

Back To Coal

But limiting greenhouse gas emissions is hardly  a top priority for energy-starved Europe. According to a report by the Observer Research Foundation, energy supply disruptions triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine took LNG prices even higher leaving coal as the only option for dispatchable and affordable power in much of Europe, including the tough markets of Western Europe and North America that have explicit policies to phase out coal.

According to the Washington Post, coal mines and power plants that closed 10 years ago have begun to be repaired in Germany. In what industry observers have dubbed a “spring” for Germany’s coal-fired power plants, the country is expected to burn at least 100,000 tons of coal per month by winter. That’s a big U-turn considering that Germany’s goal had been to phase out all coal-generated electricity by 2038.

Other European countries such as Austria, Poland, the Netherlands and Greece have also started restarting coal plants.

Meanwhile, China’s coal imports have been surging as power generators increased purchases to provide for peak summer electricity demand. China has the largest number of operational coal power plants with 3,037 while Germany, the largest economy in the EU has 63.

The situation has led to soaring global coal consumption that could reach levels we haven’t seen in a decade, though there will be a limit to growth considering that investment in any new coal-powered plants has stalled. But that only makes the coal market tighter, pushing the energy source into an outperforming category. 

Thermal coal, which is the variety used to generate power, has seen a 170% rise in price since the end of 2021–most of those gains made following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 02:45