Trump Campaign Raises Staggering $200 Million Since Thursday Conviction
If Democrats needed further confirmation that prosecuting Donald Trump on an obscure misdemeanor elevated to a felony just for him… (while the same DA reduced 60% of felonies to misdemeanors last year), the Trump campaign has raised over $200 million since Thursday’s verdict in the former president’s New York ‘hush money’ trial.
Of that, $70 million was from small donors, and 30% of the total were first-time donors to a political campaign, Eric Trump told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo on Sunday.
“I mean, these are Americans who are p*ssed off, said the younger Trump. “They’re coming out of the woodwork and they want to support a guy that they just believe is getting bamboozled by a system.
“We saw it with Impeachment one, we saw it with Impeachment two, we see it where they weaponize every liberal DA and AG across the country with one intent: To take him down, to slander him, to ruin his reputation, to try and divide his family, to try and bankrupt him, to throw him in jail, to do whatever the hell they can do,” he added.
“America sees through it. They know exactly what’s going on.”
Eric Trump says the campaign is over $200 million in donations since the verdict
The $200 million was raised in a matter of just three days, which far surpasses any amount raised by President Biden’s campaign in a similar time frame. Within 24 hours of President Trump’s guilty verdict, the Trump campaign received $53 million in donations. The Biden campaign raised a total of $51 million for all of April.
According to a Friday statement by Trump campaign officials Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, “Biden and his Democrat allies have turned our legal system into a political tool, and Americans from every corner of the country have had enough,” adding “This momentum is just getting started and together, as President Trump stated perfectly, Americans will render the real verdict on November 5.”
Sometimes weeks shortened by holidays are painful to follow. It somehow seems difficult to get a good sense of flows and momentum. In addition, last week had a dearth of economic data, at least until Friday. Let’s be honest, when we are looking at Treasury auction results for direction, we are in a market devoid of much else going on.
The market did seem to digest the news that a former president and presumptive nominee was found guilty of felonies. At some point, markets are likely to focus on the election. The one thing I’m reasonably sure about regarding the election is that as the campaigning begins in earnest, it will not be great for Treasuries. Neither candidate/party seems particularly interested in doing anything about the ballooning national debt and that will weigh on markets yet again.
Other factors such as “okay” inflation data will also impact Treasuries. We crawled back into our 4.3% to 4.5% range, but largely on a simply atrocious Chicago PMI report. While we can all agree that neither Chicago, nor Manufacturing are as important to the nation as they once were, it is at least mildly disturbing that we surpassed the 2001 trough (though we are marginally higher than the 2008/2009 and COVID troughs).
Which brings me to the chart of the day.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped about 300 points on the week or about 1.5%. Not horrible, but late into the day on Tuesday and late into the day on Friday (which also happened to be month-end), the Nasdaq 100 gained about 470 points (about 2.5%). Now, maybe the “hockey stick” save into the close on Tuesday is explicable, but we saw those gains fade as the week progressed. However, Friday’s action seemed bizarre at best. Presumably, it was due to some sort of month-end rebalancing, but it was hardly something that a continued rally seems likely to be based on.
That is in addition to some of the moves (up and down) highlighted in yellow, that seem almost random. Sure, some can be tied to a specific headline, but many just seem to be reactions to flows.
I’m increasingly worried about a lack of “true” liquidity in the markets. Sure, algos create a perception of liquidity (one that can be used in reasonable size), but those pockets of liquidity seem to disperse more and more frequently.
Without a doubt, in a quiet tape, the relentless buying from share repurchases has helped, but that didn’t seem to work last week.
One thing that caught me somewhat by surprise was that going back to March 1st, the S&P 500 is up 2.4%. No, I’m not surprised that despite all the hype and relentless “all-time high” headlines, stocks are barely up over the last 3 months. What surprised me (a little) was that the utilities sector was by far the best performing sector in the S&P 500 (up a whopping 16.4% over that period).
We have stretched the AI Deputization theme to its limit. Yes, data centers are being built. More and more computing power is also being built. They will need energy to run, but I suspect that will take time and the markets are “compressing” time. We’ve pulled forward lots and lots of expected cashflows and benefits from AI. NVDA remains strong and is up over 30% since March 1st, but even the AI leadership doesn’t seem broad and has relied on utilities. That all seems “stretched” to me.
We continue to see large stocks react 10% (or far more) to earnings, which I interpret to be a function of options and a lack of true liquidity.
Maybe we will grind higher again, but markets seem stretched, leadership is flagging, and we should get some interesting data this week. I care far less about the inflation data and far more about the data pointing to economic activity and the consumer.
The May jobs data should be really interesting. From a “seasonal” perspective, it should pick up summer hiring in the Northeast. I continue to wonder if our “seasonal” adjustments no longer match the reality of a country where the demographic mix and manufacturing/service hubs have changed over time (away from the Northeast). Maybe the corollary of Chicago doesn’t matter, but is this why we’ve been overstating jobs due to seasonality, which is no longer accurate?
Bottom Line
I expect “American Exceptionalism” to be sorely tested this coming week with the onslaught of data (jobs in particular).
I’m increasingly nervous that we are about to undergo another round of selling pressure in Treasuries. Foreign bond yields are getting more attractive, the deficit is concerning, and China (amongst others) needs to raise money to fund stimulus. However, I think the economic data will outweigh that and keep us drifting back towards 4.3% on 10s.
Equities got the “stick save” on Friday, but I think that will fade and every attempt to rally on lower yields that are a result of weaker data will fade. I just don’t see a third “save” coming and it won’t matter that markets don’t close at 2:30 pm, because there won’t be the late day rally!
You can get a really good idea how the U.S. economy is doing by watching restaurants in your area. When the economy is booming, restaurant parking lots are full and chains are feverishly establishing new locations. But when the economy is struggling, restaurants get a lot less traffic and poor performing locations get shut down. Sadly, in 2024 it appears that a “restaurant apocalypse” has started to sweep across America. Most people have very little discretionary income to spend as a result of our cost of living crisis, and that is particularly true for our young adults. Americans under the age of 40 love to eat out, but these days most of them are experiencing financial stress, and this is having an enormous impact on the restaurant industry.
In 2023, visits to sit-down restaurants dropped by about five percent compared to 2022…
Americans are eating out less as inflation weakens the dollars in their pocket, which is leading to some harsh consequences for restaurants across the country.
Visits to sit-down restaurants were down nearly five percent in 2023 from the year prior, according to location analytics firm Placer.ai.
So this is a trend that has stretched on for over a year.
People just aren’t eating out as much as they once did.
As a result, we are seeing a wave of closures all over the country. Even in the Big Apple, large numbers of restaurants are being shut down…
Even big metropolitan areas in the US known for their great dining spots are struggling to maintain an environment where it’s profitable to run a restaurant.
Eater NY reported that over 40 bars and restaurants closed in New York City from December 2023 to January 2024, with some of the owners saying business simply never picked up after the COVID lockdowns in 2020.
When times get tough, difficult decisions need to be made.
After closing 46 restaurants last year, Applebee’s has decided to close another 35 locations this year…
Applebee’s is to close another 35 further locations this year, after shutting 46 in 2023.
The restaurant chain has shut at least three locations so far this year and has plans to close even more, president Tony Moralejo said in an earnings call on Wednesday.
Closing restaurants was ‘an incredibly difficult decision’ and a ‘last resort’ for the company, Moralejo said.
And I am very saddened by what has happened to Boston Market.
At one time they had almost 1,000 locations all over the United States, but now the entire chain is about to go belly up…
In the case of Boston Market, a chain that once had nearly 1,000 locations nationwide, the company’s death has been slow, but the pace of its demise has picked up over the past few months.
Now, with its store count continuing to dip, the chain seems to have reached the end even if it won’t confirm that given that there no longer appears to be anyone around to make that decision.
Boston Market owner Jignesh “Jay” Pandya was recently denied Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time and has been barred from filing again for six months. That leaves his company, which faces massive financial obligations, unable to gain court protection from its creditors.
Our ongoing inflation crisis is the primary reason why this is happening.
Consumers simply have a lot less discretionary income now.
Jessica Dunker, the president and CEO of the Iowa Restaurant Association, said the reason restaurants are shuttering is because the cost of goods is up 30 percent and they are having to shell out higher wages to keep staff on.
Unfortunately, things aren’t going to get any better any time soon.
For example, the cost of orange juice is expected to go up dramatically because of a very bad harvest in Brazil…
Breakfast lovers are in for another jolt as orange juice prices surge to near-record levels. A new report released on Friday indicates that Brazil, the leading global exporter of OJ, is facing its worst harvest in over three decades. This alarming development compounds existing issues in Florida’s citrus groves, which have been plagued by disease and are experiencing collapsing production levels to the lowest in decades.
Fundecitrus wrote in a note that Brazil will produce 232.4 million boxes—each weighing about 90 pounds—for the growing season this year. That’s a 24% collapse from a year earlier and the lowest production levels in 36 years.
We have reached a point where the vast majority of Americans just can’t afford to eat out on a regular basis.
Needless to say, that is really bad news for fast food chains like McDonald’s.
At one time, serving middle class families was their core business.
But now most middle class families just can’t afford to eat at McDonald’s very often.
In a desperate attempt to lure them back, McDonald’s will soon introduce a five dollar meal deal…
McDonald’s is looking to launch a $5 meal in the US in a move to bring back price-sensitive customers.
The meal includes four items, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg and Restaurant Business. Customers would choose between two of the chain’s signature burgers — a McChicken or a McDouble — and get four-piece McNuggets, fries, and a drink. The $5 promotion would last for a month, Bloomberg reported.
So they are going to bring back affordable food for one month.
That’s just great.
Unless they make the five dollar meal deal permanent, I don’t expect that it will make much of a difference.
Consumer sentiment plunged to the lowest level in six months as price increases reaccelerated, according to the latest University of Michigan survey of consumers, released Friday.
Additionally, consumers are bracing for even higher price increases in the year ahead compared to readings from prior months, the survey found.
The gauge, which is closely tracked by the Biden administration, plunged 13% from April’s 77.2% reading, to 67.4%. That’s the biggest one-month drop since mid-2021. Economists polled by FactSet were expecting consumer expectations to fall to just 76.9%.
And they have good reason to be pessimistic, because even though our politicians in Washington are engaging in an unprecedented spending spree in a desperate attempt to keep the economy propped up, the truth is that the wheels are starting to come off and tremendous chaos is ahead.
What happens to the Biden economy? Dowd says, “The economy is going to take a nosedive sometime in the next 12 months. The real economy is not doing well. . . . The only thing that has been holding up the GDP growth is government spending. We are spending $1 trillion every 100 days. That’s adding $1 trillion to the deficit. The only job creation is government jobs, and they don’t actually add to the economy. . . . Reports are coming out now that the low-income consumer is getting absolutely hammered. McDonald’s talked about it in their most recent earnings call. . . . So, low-income and the middle-class are getting squeezed while the rich continue to plug along.”
Making Over $141K, Minneapolis Mayor Thanks Biden For Student Loan Forgiveness
If you weren’t already infuriated by Joe Biden’s exploitation of the federal student loan program as a means of buying votes and redistributing wealth, this should do the trick.
On Wednesday, Minneapolis Mayor Melvin Carter — who earnsmakes takes $140,814 a year before benefits — rushed to Twitter to thank President Biden for erasing his remaining student debt, sharing a screen shot showing his outstanding balance had turned to zero.
The latest drip in the fiscal Chinese water torture that’s being inflicted on responsible, productive Americans came earlier that day, with Biden announcing he was cancelling another $7.7 billion of debt. With that, the total such debt wiped away by his administration has reached $167 billion.
After emphasizing that the average beneficiary of Biden’s self-serving abuse of taxpayers has had $35,000 in debt forgiven, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre fielded a challenging question from, of all sources, NBC News. Correspondent Peter Alexander asked, “Why don’t those individuals who didn’t receive $35,000 in debt cancellation deserve a $35,000 check from other Americans for what other means they would want to use it?”
Jean-Pierre’s struggle to rationalize the debt-forgiveness fiesta resulted in a comical, leftist word-salad:
Karine Jean-Pierre gets a difficult question about student loans.
“Why don’t those individuals who didn’t receive $35,000 in debt cancellation deserve a $35,000 check from other Americans for whatever means they would want to use it?”
If he was being “literally” crushed, it’s safe to say it’s because he and his OB/GYN nurse wife made a series of poor financial decisions. Either way, he doesn’t deserve to have his net worth elevated by distributing the cost to other members of society — including future ones. And neither does anyone else.
In early April, Biden announced a five-pronged proposal for even more student debt forgiveness. A UPenn-Wharton analysis pegged the cost at $84 billion, and noted that the proposal would “relieve some longer-term student debt for about 750,000 households making over $312,000 in average household income.”
We’re guessing Team Biden might have mixed feelings about Mayor Melvin’s tin-eared, highly-public thank you. It’s not playing well in Peoria…
I’m so happy I didn’t go to school and learned a trade because I was realistic about my financial situation and didn’t want to take on loans. I was responsible and don’t get any help. Unbelievable
Impeachable offenses. Buying votes – increasing inflation- shifting debt to responsible Americans who work hard and take accountability for their actions.
You should be embarrassed the US Government has transferred your voluntary loans to the national debt. Nothing has been forgiven, just transferred to the rest of us who actually pay taxes.
The U.S. national debt is at 34.7 trillion dollars. If you laid that many dollar bills end-to-end, it would wrap around the Earth 134,599 times. That’s enough to travel to the sun and back 17 times. Suffice it to say, we’re in a pickle.
America is slowly approaching the precipice of debt default. This is no minor dilemma. A default could cause approximately 8 million jobs to be lost. In other words, the bill would come due.
For many politicians, the debt crisis is not a pressing concern. At least not enough to take measures to fix it. The Biden administration passed a 1.2 trillion-dollar infrastructure bill in 2021, adding 256 billion dollars to the budget deficit over the next ten years. Biden has also forgiven 167 billion dollars in student loans during his tenure, which was financed through increased government spending. Despite already being one of the most indebted countries in the world, politicians continue to dig the U.S. into an even deeper hole. The problem is not simply a monetary one.
There is an ideological battle underlying our descent into debt.
The ideas that have caused America’s current debt crisis were birthed during the Great Depression. In 1932, Franklin D. Roosevelt issued a series of spending measures that were intended to stimulate economic activity in what was called the “New Deal.” FDR spent over 950 billion (inflation-adjusted) dollars on the program while being touted as an economic “savior.” The deal was promoted as what released America from the bonds of the recession. In reality, it made the problem worse.
A study conducted by two UCLA economists found that the New Deal actually extended the Great Depression by seven years. By artificially increasing wages while unemployment remained rampant and below projected recovery rates, FDR’s program harmed economic health. Simply pumping money into the economy wasn’t the fix-all solution it was advertised to be.
This is no surprise. Simply increasing the amount of money in the economy does not increase the total amount of goods and services. It only increases the demand for a stationary supply, which necessarily results in a price increase. Instead of stimulating true economic development, unrestricted government funding has led to an inflationary trap. And yet we keep spending, suppressing the symptoms while worsening the underlying problem.
Another flaw of increasing government spending is its inefficiency relative to private markets. Look no further than the Pentagon’s $640 toilet seat. Government officials don’t have the proper incentives to spend money wisely. Instead, their wasteful spending is bankrolled by tax dollars, debt, and increases in the money supply. Between 2020 and 2022, the money supply alone increased by over 40%. Consequently, inflation burgeoned to 7% and 6.5% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.
Government spending is a slippery slope. Once a private entity becomes dependent on a public sector paycheck, it will keep coming back for more. In return, politicians get more control over the lives of their constituents. The decision to increase taxes, the money supply, or the national debt to fund more spending is rooted in an ideology of increased government intervention.
The thinkers who originated Western political philosophy believed that government was meant to protect life, liberty, and property, and nothing more. The modern American regime has drastically overstepped these bounds and instead spends trillions of dollars on niche issues while citizens pay the price in the form of inflation, higher taxes, and debt.
At the heart of the issue is the belief that politicians can spend your money better than you can. But this couldn’t be further from the truth. Political leaders only have to cater to the current populus to stay in power, and thus have a heavy tendency to overspend in the present and let future generations pick up the pieces. But the bill is coming due. Experts estimate the U.S. has approximately 20 years to change its spending policies or it will have to default on its debt. We are descending into an economic crisis of our political leaders’ design. While excessive spending appears beneficial in the present, the American people always pay the price.
Netanyahu Accepts Johnson’s Invitation – First Foreign Leader To Address Congress A 4th Time
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted an invitation to address both houses of Congress, after House Speaker Mike Johnson issued a formal invitation on Friday, with the backing of fellow Democrat leaders.
Netanyahu boasted that he will be the first foreign leader in history to make four such appearances there. “I am moved by the privilege of representing Israel before both houses of Congress, and of presenting, to the representatives of the American people and the entire world, the truth about our righteous war against those who seek our destruction,” an acceptance statement by the Israeli prime minister’s office said.
The invitation leader had also been signed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. They said “we join the State of Israel in your struggle against terror, especially as Hamas continues to hold American and Israeli citizens captive and its leaders jeopardize regional stability.”
“For this reason, on behalf of the bipartisan leadership of the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate, we would like to invite you to address a Joint Meeting of Congress.”
However, some House and Senate Progressives are expected to boycott Netanyahu’s address, including Senator Bernie Sanders.
Sanders issued a statement saying “It is a very sad day for our country that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been invited – by leaders from both parties – to address a joint meeting of the United States Congress.”
“Netanyahu is a war criminal. I certainly will not attend,” Sanders added. Indeed it is also the first time that a leader who has an arrest warrant out by the Hague-based ICC has addressed Congress and the American people.
All of this is happening at a deeply strained moment for US-Israel relations. Israel’s military has plunged deep into Rafah, violating prior red lines issued by Biden. Also, Netanyahu appears to have slammed the door on Biden’s publicly backing the current ceasefire deal on the table.
Other Progressive Congressional members say they will ask hard questions during his visit:
I hope you will agree to sit down with Members of Congress & answer questions, @netanyahu. A number of us have great concerns how you’ve conducted the collective punishment of millions & possible war crimes. Also, I hear there may be an arrest warrant to deal with. See you soon? https://t.co/mnmQaMF1RG
The Israeli PM has vowed that the military operation in Gaza won’t stop until Hamas no longer has military or governing capacity. He has said he won’t withdraw troops until the group is eliminated.
HBO ‘Real Time’ host Bill Maher has predicted that if Donald Trump is sentenced to any prison time, there will be a civil war that will quickly evolve into a race war because of MAGA supporters.
“Here’s the key question: Is he going to go to jail? Would this judge dare do that?” Maher said, adding “And should he? I heard some people say if his name wasn’t Donald Trump he would definitely get jail time.”
“MAGA nation will go nuts. I don’t know if that’s a reason to or not to do something, but they will,” Maher continued during the discussion with former Obama chief strategist David Axelrod.
Maher went on to suggest that “because the judge’s name was Juan,” putting Trump in jail would lead to racial political violence.
“Everything becomes racial in this country. That’s partly because of our horrible, despicable racial past, partly because some of that racism lives on in the present and some of it because the far left makes everything racial. But that’s what it’s going to be.” Maher further posited.
“A civil war in this country, I’m sorry to say, becomes a race war. That’s the sad truth about this country,” the host continued, adding “And if they put him in jail, I mean, the first thing his supporters are going to say is, ‘Oh, that’s what it is.’ A Black district attorney. You know, all these people who are the district attorneys, they’re black. The judge was not White. This is what it is.”
Watch:
HBO ‘Real Time’ host Bill Maher has predicted that if Donald Trump is sentenced to any prison time, there will be a civil war that will quickly evolve into a race war because of MAGA supporters. Full report here: https://t.co/BpSpHCoqoNpic.twitter.com/q3hBsQwh6S
As we highlighted earlier this week, former US Attorney for the District of Utah Brett L. Tolman is adament that Judge Merchan will give Trump jail time.
“This judge has considerable power now, on July 11th he has the power to take Trump forthwith, he can take him, put him in custody right then and he can do it for whatever period of time,” said Tolman, warning that despite there being a range of sentencing, “the rules are out the window, who knows what this judge will do.”
“I predict he will give him some jail time, I think he will fine him, he’ll give him a stern lecture and then he’ll promptly plan his retirement and a book deal,” concluded Tolman.
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“Nothing To Do With World Events”: Two Unarmed Minuteman III ICBMs Slated For Launch Next Week
The US Air Force Global Strike Command is preparing to conduct two separate tests of unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles from north Vandenberg Space Force Base in California next week.
“Consistent with previous test launches, this routine, unarmed ICBM test launch will validate and verify the effectiveness, readiness and accuracy of the weapon system,” Vandenberg Space Force Base wrote in a statement.
Here are the tests:
The first test is scheduled for June 4 from 12:01 a.m. to June 4, 2024, 6:01 a.m., Pacific Time from north Vandenberg.
The second test is scheduled for June 6 from 12:01 a.m. to June 6, 6:01 a.m., Pacific Time from north Vandenberg.
Test re-entry vehicles are expected to travel approximately 4,200 miles southwest of California to the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands.
“A previous test launch slated for February 2024 had to be postponed due to some needed repairs at Reagan Test Site,” said Col. Chris Cruise, 377th Test and Evaluation Group commander.
Cruise continued, “This summer’s test launch was already scheduled so it made sense to do them both while all the necessary personnel were in place. The launches were scheduled well in advance and have nothing to do with world events.”
Late last year, America’s 450 ICBM silos across five states began a major $96 billion overhaul – part of a nuclear modernization effort. The military as a whole is being modernized as war rages on in Eastern Europe and is set to possibly expand with the Biden administration ‘green-lighting‘ Ukraine to strike inside Russia with US weapons. The conflict between Israel and Hamas is another concern, as well as instability in the South China Sea.
Had the company gone just two more days without an incident, it would have satisfied a settlement to avoid criminal prosecution by the Department of Justice (DOJ).
Instead, the accident triggered investigations by federal agencies and congressional hearings. The incident also renewed public scrutiny of Boeing and the 737 MAX 8 crashes in 2018 and 2019 that killed everyone on board and led to criminal charges for the company.
Boeing has since seen a significant financial fallout, reporting a $355 million loss and a near-50 percent drop in deliveries in the first quarter alone. The company also faces plummeting stock values and canceled orders from multiple airlines since the Jan. 5 incident.
The DOJ ended months of speculation on May 14 with a court filing alleging that Boeing violated its 2021 deferred prosecution agreement. The company failed to “design, implement, and enforce a compliance and ethics program to prevent and detect violations of the U.S. fraud laws.”
The DOJ will meet with the crash victims’ families on May 31 before announcing its intentions with Boeing’s case by July 7.
According to career pilots, aviation safety experts, and attorneys who spoke with The Epoch Times, how Boeing violated the agreement and the possible consequences are complicated.
To stay competitive, Boeing needed to design a new plane that could fly to destinations such as Hawaii with less fuel. The company’s competitor, Airbus, was edging out the market with new, more fuel-efficient jets.
Instead of designing a brand new plane, which would have required extensive pilot training from the airlines that buy them, raising the jet’s price, Boeing opted to release an upgraded version of its 737 jet, the 737 MAX. It has larger, more powerful engines that are installed farther forward on the plane’s wings, which causes the nose to push up higher during takeoff.
Boeing compensated with a new flight control software called Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), which automatically lowers the nose to avoid midair stalling. Federal regulators said Boeing didn’t tell the airlines or the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) the extent of the software, how it controls the plane in the background, and how to disable it.
Planes also use angle of attack vanes, or indicators, to tell the computer whether the jet is ascending or descending at the right pitch angle. Before the 737 MAX, these indicators were wired to two sensors in case one malfunctioned during flight—because of damage from a bird strike, for instance. On the original 737 MAXs, the angle of attack indicators were wired to a single sensor, causing the flight control software to assume that the plane was in critical danger if either indicator malfunctioned.
During the 2018 and 2019 fatal flights, the MCAS system kept pitching the nose downward with faulty angle-of-attack data, likely from a damaged angle of attack vane. Because Boeing didn’t properly disclose the software nuances and how to disable it to the airlines, the pilots took more than 10 seconds to respond. Federal guidelines expect pilots to respond to such as situation in four seconds to avoid a catastrophe.
Boeing also didn’t overhaul the flight control software until after the 2019 Ethiopian Airlines crash, which was five months after the 2018 Lion Air crash. The FAA responded by grounding all 737 MAX jets for nearly two years to ensure compliance with regulations.
“The MCAS accidents were pure, 100 percent money accidents,” said Shawn Pruchnicki, aviation safety expert and assistant professor at Ohio State University’s Center for Aviation Studies.
“They killed 346 people over money and nothing else.”
Disclosing the flight control software would have forced airlines to order new training for their pilots before using the 737 MAX, thus raising the sales price.
The DOJ, the FAA, and the House Transportation Committee initiated separate investigations into the crashes. All implicated the MAX’s flight control software and Boeing’s decision to withhold this information from regulators, airlines, and pilots, which meant that pilots didn’t respond in time in both fatal 737 MAX 8 crashes.
Boeing didn’t respond to a request for comment.
How Was Boeing Charged?
The DOJ charged Boeing on Jan. 7, 2021, with conspiracy to defraud the United States, particularly the FAA’s Aircraft Evaluation Group.
The U.S. government stated that Boeing deliberately withheld details of its flight control software from the FAA and airlines. Boeing maintained that two of its 737 MAX Flight technical pilots were responsible for deceiving federal regulators about the MCAS flight control software.
The government then brokered a deferred prosecution agreement with Boeing, a form of criminal settlement in which charges can be dismissed if the defendant fulfills certain obligations within a stated timeframe.
Boeing had to accept responsibility for the acts that led to criminal charges and pay a total of $2.5 billion, which included a $243.6 million penalty and a $500 million fund to compensate the families of the 2018 and 2019 737 MAX crash victims.
However, Boeing also had to stay in compliance for three years from the day the agreement was signed, Jan. 7, 2021.
During this period, the company had to avoid committing any federal felonies, could not deny responsibility for the charges, and was required to implement a “compliance and ethics program designed, implemented, and enforced to prevent and detect violations of the U.S. fraud laws throughout its operations.”
Boeing was two days from the end of its probationary period when the Alaskan Airlines panel blew out.
The DOJ’s May 14 letter states that Boeing failed to “design, implement, and enforce” the compliance and ethics program required under the terms of the settlement. However, the agency did not explicitly say whether the Alaskan Airlines incident or any others from 2024 were linked to Boeing’s lack of a compliance and ethics program.
Robert Clifford, lead attorney for the families of the 2018 and 2019 crash victims, told The Epoch Times that the DOJ hasn’t informed him or the families of the acts or incidents that led to Boeing’s breach of the agreement.
“We hope to learn details of the investigation and government plans going forward,” he said.
“Obviously, the events of 2024, such as Alaska Air, have caused greater focus on Boeing’s compliance and the scrutiny of the government, but we await word on the exact details that led to the finding of [the] breach.”
The DOJ also wrote in the letter that it reserves the right to find Boeing in violation of other terms of the agreement until July 7, when it will announce how the agency intends to proceed with the case.
Possible Criminal Charges
The DOJ could pursue multiple pathways if it criminally prosecutes Boeing.
Neama Rahmani is a former federal prosecutor who once worked for the aerospace company. He told The Epoch Times that the DOJ could issue a “massive fine,” require an independent monitor to “ensure that Boeing is complying with its obligations under the agreement,” or prosecute individuals in the company, such as CEO Dave Calhoun.
Mr. Rahmani explained that going after individuals at the company requires a higher bar of proof. He said prosecutors could use a text message between high-level executives admitting to fraud, for example.
OPEC+ Agrees To Extend Collective Output Cuts Until End Of 2025
As we previewed last month, OPEC+ agreed to extend its oil production cuts well into 2025, while also setting a timeline for gradually winding down some of those curbs later this year.
As reported by Bloomberg, the agreement reached in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday exceeds market expectations in some ways, extending so-called “voluntary” cuts from key members including Saudi Arabia and Russia well into next year. However, it also begins rolling back those supply reductions in October, earlier than some OPEC-watchers had assumed.
The OPEC+ agreement prolongs roughly 2 million barrels a day of cuts, which have played a key role in supporting crude prices above $80 a barrel this year but were set to expire at the end of June. The curbs will continue in full in the third quarter then be gradually phased out over the following 12 months, according to a statement from the Saudi Energy Ministry.
This is how Energy Intel’s Amina Bakr summarizes the latest OPEC+ deal:
1. The group will extend its collective cuts (a mix of voluntary and group cuts) which amount to around 3.6 million bpd until the end of 2025.
2. The 8 states which offered the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts will extend those till q3 2024. After that they will start being back production gradually from October 2024 till September 2025, subject to market conditions.
Highlights from the agreement: the UAE received an upward adjustment to 300k to its baseline which is now 3.5 million bpd
Another highlight is that the baseline revisions have now been pushed back to 2026, and that’s because some countries like Russia are under embargo and the independent companies are not able to have access to data to support the assessment process.
Do not underestimate the level of cohesion that is required to reach this complex policy which will be in place for the next year and a half.
And this is what the phase out of the voluntary cuts will look like:
Lets try to keep this simple. WHAT happens to the top layer of the pyramid (ie the voluntary cuts) after Q3 2024? production will be brought back gradually in October 2024 until September 2025, if the market can support the extra volumes. #OOTT#Opecpic.twitter.com/EwMPrwOwDU
Prior to the meeting, traders and analysts had widely expected OPEC+ to prolong its supply reductions in order to offset soaring output from its rivals, with some predicting they would be maintained until the end of 2024. Under the new agreement, the eight nations participating in these additional curbs will have added about 750,000 barrels a day to the market by January.
#OPEC+: The eight country with voluntary cuts agreed to extend these cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, which were announced in November 2023, until the end of September 2024. The quantities of this reduction, amounting to 2.2 million barrels per day, will then be restored…
Crude prices had slumped in the past month as Middle East tensions faded and amid a fragile economic outlook in China and doubts about the pace of interest-rate reductions in major industrialized economies. Brent futures settled at $81.62 a barrel on May 31, a drop of 7.1% for the month.
Those “voluntary” cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies were in addition to an earlier group-wide agreement capping crude output at about 39 million barrels a day, which ran until the end of this year. The alliance said in a statement that it also agreed to prolong that accord to the end of 2025.
“It removes a significant chunk of oil from our balances both this year and next,” said Amrita Sen, director of research and co-founder of Energy Aspects Ltd. The deal “keeps OPEC+ in charge of the market.”
Sunday’s deal suggests OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia, which hosted the meeting in its capital after initial plans for a gathering in Vienna were canceled, is attempting to strike a balance between supporting crude markets and easing the production restraints against which some members have chafed repeatedly.
Lower oil prices this year have improved the economic outlook by offering some relief to central banks grappling with persistent inflation. Yet they also threaten revenue for producers like Saudi Arabia, which needs prices close to $100 a barrel to fund the ambitious spending plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the International Monetary Fund estimates.
In parallel to the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, the Saudi government completed a $12 billion sale of shares in state oil giant Aramco, raising funds to help pay for a massive economic transformation plan.
As Bloomberg notes, the agreement temporarily resolves “a potentially fraught debate on some nations’ oil capacity. The alliance had commissioned an external review of its members capabilities with the intention of resetting baseline production levels used to measure cuts in 2025.”
Several major exporters were seeking to have their levels upgraded, possibly posing a risk to the group’s efforts to stabilize world markets. The deadline for completion of that process has now been pushed back by a year to November 2026. However, the UAE was given a 300,000 barrel-a-day boost to its production target for next year, making it the clear winner from Sunday’s negotiations.
