45.3 F
Chicago
Saturday, April 26, 2025
Home Blog Page 2598

US Designates Wagner Group “Transnational Criminal Organization” – Cites Ties With North Korea

0
US Designates Wagner Group “Transnational Criminal Organization” – Cites Ties With North Korea

After becoming clear that the private Russian military firm Wager Group – whose founder has direct ties to President Putin – is helping to lead the major offensive in the Soledar and Bakhmut areas in eastern Ukraine, the Biden administration on Friday unveiled new sanctions against the group.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Friday announced Wagner is now designated a “significant Transnational Criminal Organization” which allows the US to block its access to any US-produced items or technology. It further leaves open the potential for US Commerce to go after its foreign assets as a legally dubbed criminal enterprise. “It will broaden the network of nations and institutions that will be able to stop doing business with Wagner,” Kirby said of the new action at a White House press briefing.

And in an interesting twist, the White House says it has evidence that Wagner is being directly supplied by North Korea. While the Russia-Pyongyang connection has been raised by the US since the summer, this is the first time the US administration has sought to present anything in the way of evidence. 

US government satellite photos

Kirby presented to reporters what he said is photographic evidence of rail cars traveling from Russian to North Korea on November 18. He alleged that shipping containers were loaded with weaponry or ammo and were sent back to Russia the next day.

“We do expect that it will continue to receive North Korean weapon systems,” Kirby asserted. “We obviously condemn North Korea’s actions and we urge North Korea to cease these deliveries to Wagner immediately and we are going further by taking action against Wagner itself.”

The White House further said it will work with the UN Security Council to enforce violations against Wagner, and further took the information on Pyongyang’s ties to Wagner to the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee. Kirby previewed that more sanctions are coming next week.

Russia and North Korea share a small sliver of border, a little over 10 miles long:

“There are around 50,000 Wagner Group fighters currently deployed to Ukraine, according to Kirby, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts,” CNN reported after the briefing.

Kirby additionally pointed out that “Wagner is becoming a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries.” He highlighted Russian defense officials’ expressions of reservations about Wagner’s tactics like recruiting from Russian prisons, and in return promising freedom based on months in action in Ukraine.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 14:00

Kash Patel: “I Have No Faith” In Special Counsel’s Probe Of Biden Documents

0
Kash Patel: “I Have No Faith” In Special Counsel’s Probe Of Biden Documents

Authored by Jan Jekielek and Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times,

Former Defense Department Chief of Staff Kash Patel said he does not trust the special counsel to fairly investigate President Joe Biden’s mishandling of classified information.

We’ve already seen how they’re handling it—they’re not,” Patel told The Epoch Times’ Jan Jekielek on an episode of his “Kash’s Corner” podcast, which premiered on Jan. 20 at 8:00 p.m. ET.

“The FBI, DOJ aren’t investigating this matter,” he added. “No, subpoenas have gone out, nothing. And so, I don’t have any faith in this new special counsel.”

Kash Patel, former chief of staff for the Department of Defense, speaks during a campaign event for Republican election candidates at the Whiskey Roads Restaurant & Bar in Tucson, Ariz., on July 31, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

On Jan. 12, Attorney General Merrick Garland capped off a turbulent week for the Biden administration by appointing attorney Robert Hur as special counsel to probe Biden’s storage of classified documents in unsecured locations.

Hur, a Trump appointee, served as U.S. attorney for the District of Maryland from April 2018 to February 2021, when he left the Department of Justice (DOJ) for private practice.

Between 2003 and 2018, Hur served on and off at the DOJ in various roles, reporting to familiar figures like now-FBI Director Christopher Wray and former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

And that fact, according to Patel, is one of the reasons Hur cannot be trusted to remain impartial.

“In the Trump administration, when Jeff Sessions was recused from all the Russiagate stuff, Rod Rosenstein was the attorney general for all those matters,” Patel noted, adding that Rosenstein had “hand-picked” Hur to serve under him as the principal associate deputy attorney general.

“How they handled the Russiagate investigation is my problem,” Patel said.

President Joe Biden attends a worship service at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, Ga., on Jan. 15, 2023. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

A ‘Political Charade’

In 2017, with then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions unable to get involved, Rosenstein appointed Robert Mueller as special counsel in the Trump-Russia investigation. It was also Rosenstein who signed off on applications to spy on Carter Page, a former Trump campaign associate, based on false information.

Patel, who at that time was serving as senior counsel to the House Intelligence Committee, said that Rosenstein and Hur subpoenaed his records while he was working to expose “the corruption of Russiagate,” and that they had “blockaded” the committee’s attempts to obtain information on the probe.

“[Hur] doesn’t get a hall pass from me,” he said. “I think he’s just another one of these corrupt government gangsters who … was politically chosen by Merrick Garland because they’ll be able to say the following headline: ‘A Former Trump Appointee Is the Special Counsel Investigating Joe Biden.’”

Describing Hur’s appointment as a “political charade,” Patel added: “Just like in the Russiagate days, I think [the DOJ is] already setting the landscape for the cover-up that they need to have happen so their own problematic handling of prior investigations is not exposed. So, that’s why I have no faith in this new special counsel, and I just don’t see it becoming an actual investigation.”

In appointing Hur, the attorney general described the former U.S. attorney as having a “long and distinguished career as a prosecutor.”

“I am confident that Mr. Hur will carry out his responsibility in an even-handed and urgent manner, and in accordance with the highest traditions of this Department,” Garland added.

Although Hur was not present for Garland’s announcement, he pledged to conduct his duties as special counsel with “fair, impartial, and dispassionate judgment” in a statement released by the DOJ.

I intend to follow the facts swiftly and thoroughly,” Hur added, “without fear or favor, and will honor the trust placed in me to perform this service.”

The Epoch Times has contacted Hur for comment.

A Questionable Timeline

According to the White House, the first cache of classified documents in Biden’s possession was discovered on Nov. 2 at the Penn Biden Center in Washington and reported immediately to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA). The documents were then transferred to NARA the next day.

According to Attorney General Merrick Garland, the National Archives Office of the Inspector General notified the Justice Department of the documents’ discovery on Nov. 4 and the FBI opened an investigation into the matter on Nov. 9.

Patel, however, said he doubts the administration’s timeline of events, finding it unlikely that NARA was unaware that the documents were missing.

“Are we really to believe that our top librarians in the United States of America didn’t know for six years that these documents were missing?” he said, adding that the matter should be investigated by the House’s newly-formed Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.

Last week, House Republicans launched their own investigations into Biden’s possession of classified materials, requesting access to all the classified documents that had been discovered by the president’s attorneys “at any location,” in addition to the names of all involved in the search, the locations searched, and communications on the matter between the White House and NARA and the DOJ.

Reporters play frisbee outside Joe Biden’s home in Wilmington, Del., in 2008. (William Thomas Cain/Getty Images)

Other Concerns

Since the first stash of documents was located, additional documents have been found at Biden’s Wilmington, Delaware, residence, in searches conducted by his personal attorneys. And even as the White House has made disclosures about the fruits of those searches, many questions remain unanswered.

Noting that it is still unclear as to how the classified materials ended up in Biden’s possession and were moved to those different locations, Patel said it was important to find out whether there were more documents to be found in other locations and who had access to the materials.

As no visitor logs exist for Biden’s Wilmington home, Patel said Congress should question all the Secret Service agents who have protected Biden over the last six years to learn more about who might have had access to the documents.

Did the Secret Service have knowledge back then that there were sensitive documents running around in the wild?” he added. “That’s another question that no one’s asking.”

The Secret Service, according to spokesman Anthony Guglielmi, screens all of the president’s visitors but does not keep records of who is vetted.

Other questions have arisen regarding the DOJ’s handling of the investigation thus far, like the department’s decision to allow Biden’s personal attorneys to carry out the document searches without any supervision from law enforcement.

“That’s like having someone commit the murder … and then you let the murderer go and collect the evidence and bring it back to the cops,” Patel noted. “That’s absurd.”

Patel also contrasted the situation against that of the DOJ’s investigation into former President Donald Trump’s storage of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, alleging that the department’s political bias against Trump was now on full display.

“How is it that Merrick Garland can go to a podium and now say, ‘Well, it was justified that we went in with a full SWAT force into Mar-a-Lago, and it’s justified that we are letting President Biden’s attorneys conduct their own search of classified documents, who may or may not have the appropriate security clearances’?”

Implications for 2024

Prior to the White House’s public disclosure last week of the classified materials’ discovery, it was anticipated that Biden would announce his intention to seek reelection within the next couple of weeks.

However, as news of the investigation broke and prominent Democrats began calling for a special counsel, some began to wonder whether there wasn’t more to the timing of the announcement.

“I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this story broke the week or two before the world was to learn whether or not Joe Biden was going to run for reelection,” Patel noted.

Suggesting that the scandal was leaked to “sideline” Biden, he posited, “What I believe is happening is there are people in the Democratic Party and the establishment media who don’t want Joe Biden to run for reelection.”

Others have espoused the same theory, like Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who told Fox News on Wednesday, “There’s an element to this that feels like the Democrats are taking out Joe Biden.

I don’t know that that’s the case, but I don’t know that it’s not,” Gaetz added. “But just as Joe Biden is hardening the cement around his decision to run for president again, they start looking for what classified documents might have been tucked away eight years ago.”

But whether a political smear tactic or not, Patel said he thought it unlikely that the DOJ would charge Biden in the case. Instead, he held that the department would do the bidding of the Democratic Party and, using the legal woes of Biden’s son Hunter as leverage, convince him not to run again.

“They’ll say, ‘Hey, look, we’ll probably walk your son Hunter into a really nice deep plea agreement where he’s not charged with anything serious and you as a sitting president can commute or pardon him,” he suggested. “And then you guys can leave and go live your lives, and we, the Democrats, will put up a candidate we think can defeat Donald Trump.”

The Epoch Times has contacted the White House, Justice Department, and Democratic National Committee for comment.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 13:30

UAE De-Dollarization Accelerates: “Crypto Will Play A Major Role In Trade Going Forward”

0
UAE De-Dollarization Accelerates: “Crypto Will Play A Major Role In Trade Going Forward”

We are starting to see a pattern in the last week or so in geopolitical events that is anything but good for the unipolar hegemon in the west.

The first, as we detailed here, was when Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan, on a panel on “Saudi Arabia’s Transformation” in Davos, made it clear that Riyadh “will consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar.”

So is the petroyuan finally at hand? Possibly, but Al-Jadaan wisely opted for careful hedging:

“We enjoy a very strategic relationship with China and we enjoy that same strategic relationship with other nations including the US and we want to develop that with Europe and other countries.”

Second, as we reported here, The Central Banks of Iran and Russia are studying the adoption of a “stable coin” for foreign trade settlements, replacing the US dollar, the ruble and the rial.

The crypto crowd is already up in arms, mulling the pros and cons of a gold-backed central bank digital currency (CBDC) for trade that will be in fact impervious to the weaponized US dollar.

And now, third, Thani Al-Zeyoudi, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) minister of state for foreign trade told Bloomberg TV that he is discussing ways to boost non-dollar trade (in oil and non-oil exports) with some of its largest trading partners.

The UAE and India are discussing ways to boost trade in rupees as the Gulf country looks to strengthen ties with its second-largest trade partner.

“We are still in early-stage discussions with India on this dirham-rupee trade,” Al-Zeyoudi said, adding that oil sales in the Indian currency are “not under consideration… This is only going to be focusing on non-oil trade.”

The UAE has been seeking to step up trade with crucial partners and last year signed multiple economic pacts with countries including India, IndonesiaTurkey, Israel and Ukraine.

In the coming months, the UAE expects to finalize similar agreements with Cambodia and Georgia, Al-Zeyoudi said.

Additionally, discussions on a trade agreement with China are also taking place, the UAE minister said.

“China is our first trade partner,” he said.

“For sure, more is going to be good for consumers, for workers, for people, for businesses.”

Finally, Al-Zeyoudi said that, “Crypto will play a major role for UAE trade going forward.”

The UAE – and especially Dubai – has been working to lure the world’s largest firms with its crypto-friendly policies.

“The most important thing is that we ensure global governance when it comes to cryptocurrencies and crypto companies,” Al-Zeyoudi said.

“We started attracting some of the companies to the country with the aim that we’ll build together the right governance and legal system, which are needed.”

All of which seems to confirm what Credit Suisse monetary icon, Zoltan Pozsar, said in his latest note, “War and Commodity Encumbrance” (must read as usual, and available to professional subs), which discusses two main things: i) commodity encumbrance (i.e., rehypothecation) and ii) the missing link of the Bretton Woods III world, the Petroyuan.

Of course, it is never that simple with any Pozsar report, and this one is no exception, so let’s start at the top of the most important narrative that will shape the next decade if not century.

As the Hungarian repo expert begins, a recurring theme in his dispatches this year has been that “in a moment when the world is going from unipolar to multipolar, the actions of heads of state are far more important than the actions of central banks.” That is because as heads of state lead, and their actions affect inflation, central banks merely follow by hiking rates to “clean up”. It has been Zoltan’s contention that central banks will be behind the curve in this game, “and if investors read only the speeches of central bankers but not statesmen, they will be even more behind the curve.”

More importantly however, this new multipolar world order is being built not by G7 heads of state but by what Pozsar calls the “G7 of the East” (the BRICS heads of state), which is a G5 really but because of “BRICSpansion” (he took the liberty to round up).

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 13:00

Bitcoin Surges Above $23,000; Best Start To A Year Ever…

0
Bitcoin Surges Above $23,000; Best Start To A Year Ever…

Bitcoin’s rampage higher in 2023 accelerated overnight with the largest cryptocurrency topping $23,000 for the first time since August 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The latest thrust pushed bitcoin back above its 200-day moving-average…

Source: Bloomberg

And while Ethereum has also surged, Bitcoin has dramatically outperformed its peers, erasing the year-to-date relative gains of the DeFi surge…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bitcoin Magazine’s Dylan LeClair details, one of the most useful models in tracking the cyclical tops for both the S&P 500 Index and bitcoin since March 2020 has proven to be net liquidity, an original model by 42 Macro.

Net liquidity tracks the changes in Federal Reserve total assets, the U.S. Treasury general account balance and the reverse repo facility. A lower net liquidity translates to less capital available to deploy in markets. We find it useful as a key macro indicator to assess current liquidity conditions and how bitcoin trades in the market.

Bitcoin has acted as a liquidity sponge throughout its life and contracting liquidity in all markets has had a significant impact on the bitcoin price and trajectory. Ultimately, that’s one of the main drivers of our core long-term thesis that bitcoin’s growth depends on an environment of perpetual monetary debasement and expanding liquidity to work against current levels of unsustainable sovereign debt and deflationary forces. In the short-term, it’s not clear when overall liquidity will increase again en masse. That’s the trillion dollar question and the topic of conversation on which everyone is speculating. Net liquidity provides a view into that trajectory as a measure that’s updated weekly with fresh data.

Bitcoin is seeing some of its largest relative strength since January 2021, but it also comes at a time when we’re seeing a significant daily uptick in net liquidity after a period of historically low volatility. The uptick is driven by a much lower reverse repo balance since the start of the year. With the Fed’s position of “higher for longer,” a projected view of Core CPI at 3.5% for 2023 and continued balance sheet runoff, we will likely see net liquidity decline — barring a spontaneous or emergency policy reversal. 

Price has broken above the short-term holder realized price. That’s happened only a few times in this bear market and these events were short-lived. As this price reflects the average on-chain cost basis of the more recent buyers, it will be key to see if these market participants are looking to sell here at cost or if they will stay to continue with the momentum.

While there is a long way to go in terms of surpassing previous bull market heights, after a year where the enture industry practically imploded, the year-to-date performance is – according to Bloomberg data – the best start to a year in crypto’s history…

However, not everyone is buying this rally, with some suggesting it’s just another ‘dead cat bounce’.

As CoinTelegraph reports, Asia was leading the way into the weekend, with sellside pressure from market makers being absorbed on exchanges.

“Another rally driven by asia bid. TWAP buyers absorbing the sell pressure from MMs. Large spot bid lifting offers & ask wall pulled prior to another short squeeze,” intraday trader ‘Skew’ commented on a composite chart.

BTC/USD annotated charts. Source: Skew/ Twitter

On-chain analytics resource Material Indicators meanwhile flagged ask liquidity being removed on Binance the day prior, this allowing Bitcoin’s initial run beyond the $22,000 mark.

“Volatility continues. Don’t give it all back, be sure to take some profit along the way,” it wrote in part of a subsequent update.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

As ever, Bitcoin was far from above suspicion at its latest highs, with some familiar faces still urging traders to prepare for the worst.

“The bigger the pump, the harder BTC will fall down,” analyst Toni Ghinea tweeted, while Crypto Tony argued that the entire move may be nothing more than a “dead cat bounce.”

“Regardless if this is dead cat relief wave or a reversal on Bitcoin, it is great to see some optimism back in Crypto,” he summarized.

Considering why further gains were coming after the end of the week’s TradFi trading, one popular commentator additionally suggested that traders were being manipulative.

“No one who genuinely wants to buy and own crypto waits until the Friday close each week to execute,” an update read, adding that those buyers’ “aim is clear.”

Finally, while miners are currently seeing some relief after a tough year, potentially rough roads lie ahead.

With the upcoming Bitcoin halving event due in 2024, mining BTC will become even more difficult and possibly more expensive for miners, providing more stress on already thin margins. On the upside, the last halving event in 2019 was followed by a 300% gain for BTC the year before.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 11:05

Target: Civilization

0
Target: Civilization

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

Two weeks ago, Southwest Airlines had a massive meltdown but they weren’t the only airline affected. Flight delays ruined vacations and travel plans for millions the world over. It was never clear why.

Oh sure, blame the weather but that has become a strangely opaque excuse. You look outside and the weather seems fine but then someone snaps at you: Can’t you see that the snow is bad in Buffalo?

So on it goes and when the weather excuse runs out, they blame the airlines themselves. And I’m sure there is plenty of blame to go around. One party that always seems to evade responsibility is the FAA itself.

The other morning the FAA itself grounded all planes in the U.S. for three hours. Why? It was some computer glitch. We still don’t get it really. It sure felt like a lockdown. Maybe it was all deliberate to get us used to a system that doesn’t work. Maybe we’ll travel less. Maybe we’ll just give up.

OK, you can call me paranoid, and maybe I’m wrong in my speculations about this incident but look at the bigger picture, whether it is forcing electric cars on us or floating the idea of banning gas stoves. The bottom line is that there are people out there who want to control how we live.

Burn No More

The latest thing on the chopping block is the gas stove. The Biden administration’s Consumer Product Safety Commission has floated the idea of a national ban on them based on some cockamamie study that they cause health and respiratory problems.

You say that they can never get away with it? Think again. These regulators are unbearably powerful. They have every intention of carrying out their wishes, and are enjoying every minute of it. They have disdain for Congress and scoff at your protests. They believe they alone are in charge and you have nothing to say about it.

Think of all the stuff they have already wrecked. Look around at your household appliances. Energy-use and water restrictions have degraded the washing machine, refrigerator, dishwasher, the shower, the toilet, clothes dryers, steamers and irons, dishwashers, freezers, and so much more.

Even the refrigerators are shrinking in size, all in the interest of institutionalizing austerity.

The clothes washers no longer use enough water to get things clean. The result is that our clothing is dull and dirty compared only to a generation ago. You can add all the liquids you want and it still won’t work. Sure, you can add bleach but that only wrecks the fabric.

When was the last time you saw sheets that were truly bright white? There is a reason for this. It’s all deliberate, and caused by overregulation of appliances. Really clean absolutely requires roiling hot water and lots of it, plus phosphates to whisk the soap away. Without that, you get what you have today: dull and dirty everything.

Sadists in Charge

All this should be a clue about what’s going on. There are sadists in charge of the regulatory apparatus. It’s not really about saving water and energy. Even if it were, that alone would be objectionable. The whole point of energy and water is to serve the human experience, not to impose privation on the planet.

Then there’s the attack on the gas-powered car, which allows us to drive long distances even in cold weather and fully control the machine. The electric vehicle is another matter. It makes us wholly dependent on the grid and limits our mobility. In cold weather, it is worse.

You end up having to stop every few hours to beg for a charge and wait another hour if you are lucky enough to find a working machine. After a while, demoralization sets in and you decide it is not worth it.

Sure, there are things you can do to outsmart this imposed impoverishment, such as hack your showerhead with a corkscrew to remove the flow stopper. But there is no fixing the toilet, the dishwasher (which now runs for hours just to leave spots), or the refrigerator (which will break in five years anyway).

In time, they want now to get rid of your ability to cook with fire, thus removing from our lives a crucial primal connection to our roots and innate desire to be around it. Ever sat by a bonfire? Everyone stares for hours because it meets an inner need. No one stands around an induction stove. They’re downright creepy.

The only technology these people approve of is a thoroughly censored smartphone. They want everything to work like that: centralized, anodyne, and feeding you nonstop propaganda.

How Will We Cook Our Bugs?

The very notion that an electric stove is better than a gas one would be disputed by any competent chef in the entire world. Instead of cultivating instincts based on what you see in the flames, you must trust some digital display to know the temperature, which is absurd. I can’t prove it but the heat itself seems different, like the difference between incandescence and fluorescence. One seems real, the other fake.

I’ve cooked on both and absolutely dread electric stoves. There are loads of dishes that require real fire, all of which would be impossible to make otherwise. I was just in a Mexican restaurant that put their chefs on display using stoves with flames that lap up 14 inches over the air and sear the fresh-made pasta as it is swished around in the pan. There is simply no way to do this otherwise.

Fine, if you want some new tech, great. Go for it. But don’t pretend that you are really cooking. You are buying into the baloney. Also, I’ve met very few people who have used both gas and electric who would honestly choose electric. But if they do, again, fine. But don’t force that choice on everyone else.

That regulators say it is bad for our health tells all that you need to know about them. They want us living in a fully sanitized, boring, and unworkable environment in which we never have contact with anything real.

Above all else, they are somehow out to demonize fossil fuels, as if electricity doesn’t use coal too and the trucks that transport it and deliver it don’t use gas.

They have even degraded the basic gas can so that it no longer works properly. Oh, we should also mention that gas itself, which now includes corn which is sticky, wrecks engines, and causes the gas itself to degrade over time.

Burning Down the House

Do you see what’s happening here? It’s all deliberate. All the things we love and that make life grand are being taken away from us. The larger truth here is that this war on civilization has been going on for decades. History is supposed to move forward with ever higher living standards.

That progress has stopped!

The trajectory must end now. Decades of regulations need to be repealed. The whole population needs to rise up and say no to the forced austerity and rule by the elite cadre of techno-primitivists. They have driven down the standard of living by force and are far from done with us yet.

Some good news from the GOP-controlled House: they’re talking about abolishing the IRS and maybe the income tax itself. Neither will happen of course, but such ideas were never in the public sphere in my lifetime.

There’s a mighty revolt afoot in the land today. It’s about time!

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 10:30

The Three Core Pillars Of The Bear Case

0
The Three Core Pillars Of The Bear Case

With market narratives flip-flopping on a daily basis like a dying fish, bouncing from bullish to bearish and back again driven purely by price action which in turn is a function of technicals, it is easy to forget that there is a fundamental case for risk. And while the bullish case is simple – the market sees the Fed cutting over 200bps in the next two years (realistically, much more) even as the Fed vows to keep rates higher for longer…

… there is also a substantial bearish case that can be made, and that’s what Bloomberg Markets Live strategist Ven Ram has done, pointing out that stocks have not only failed to breach the seemingly insurmountable technical resistance of the the S&P’s descending channel…

… or the huge pin at 4,000, but that to rally meaningfully, stocks must promise three things:

  1. an improved income return.

  2. a considerable nominal increase in earnings (meaning companies should be able to pass on inflation to consumers).

  3. multiple expansion: investors should be willing to pay more the same set of earnings, all else being equal

And while “if you combine all three of those, you would get an astounding year”, Ram cautions that it is unlikely we get one let alone all three, as he explains in his note below:

Break free. US stocks have been attempting to do that innumerable times in recent months, though it seems like the optimists want to cross over the Atlantic on the slender wings of a fruit-fly.

It’s not hard to see why the S&P 500 has struggled to get past 4,000.

To rally meaningfully, stocks must promise an improved income return. Or a considerable nominal increase in earnings, meaning companies should be able to pass on inflation to consumers. Or investors should fundamentally be willing to pay more the same set of earnings, all else being equal — a re-rating, in other words.

Of course, if you combine all three of those, you would get an astounding year.

For all those who stick a finger in the wind and posit a higher S&P, I wonder what gives.

An improved income return would stem typically from buoyant dividend yields, though the news here is grim. The current estimated dividend yield on the index is around 1.75%, below the average of about 2% since the start of the millennium.

As for earnings, assuming even a shallow recession this year as the base case, it’s hard to project meaningful real earnings growth, let alone nominal.

Which brings us to a possible re-rating, which is where the bulk of optimism seems to rest.

The Fed has said more times than anyone would care to hear that it doesn’t envisage slashing the benchmark rate this year. The markets are adamant the monetary authority will — essentially a bet that the estimated earnings yield of some 5.75% on the S&P 500 will get a leg-up based on its relative allure versus Treasury yields.

Yes, inflation is slowing, but is it going to crumble all the way to 2% that the Fed will throw caution about inflation to the winds and instead begin to accommodate the economy? I am not holding my breath.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 09:55

Plunge In Port Of Long Beach Imports Points To Sharply Lower Inflation

0
Plunge In Port Of Long Beach Imports Points To Sharply Lower Inflation

By Vincent Cignarella, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst

Drop in imports as measured by container shipments coming through the port of Long Beach suggests supply chain disruptions may be easing as inflation erodes US consumer disposable income.

The good news is that inflation is falling as consumers either spend less or alter spending habits to less expensive options.

The trend suggests, inflation is not embedded in the consumer psyche, the phenomenon where consumers expect prices to be higher the next day so they buy today.

To someone who waited on gas lines, this is not the inflation of the 1970s.

The consumer appears to have the power and that is a good omen for risk.

The more consumers push back, the slower the pace of rate hikes and the sooner the pivot. Great news for bond bulls and dollar bears.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 09:20

Elizabeth Holmes Tried To Flee Country After Conviction, Prosecutors Say

0
Elizabeth Holmes Tried To Flee Country After Conviction, Prosecutors Say

Disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes attempted to flee the United States after her January 2022 fraud conviction, prosecutors said in a new court filing.  

Holmes was convicted on three felony counts of wire fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Those charges sprang from her misleading of investors in the startup company’s blood-testing technology. Her conviction capped her stunning downfall from darling of the media and powerful individuals to prison-bound felon. 

Bill Clinton and Elizabeth Holmes at a 2015 Clinton Foundation event (Getty Images via BBC)

In November, a federal judge sentenced Holmes to 11.25 years in prison, but she isn’t behind bars yet. The judge ordered her to surrender herself to prison on April 27. That time was meant to allow time for Holmes to deliver her second baby.

Now, her lawyers have asked the judge to let her remain free while her conviction appeal is adjudicated, and they also want him to ease restrictions on her travel.  

Arguing against that request, government prosecutors told the judge that Holmes made “an attempt to flee the country shortly after she was convicted”: 

“The government became aware on January 23, 2022, that Defendant Holmes booked an international flight to Mexico departing on January 26, 2022, without a scheduled return trip. Only after the government raised this unauthorized flight with defense counsel was the trip canceled.”

The government says her partner, William Evans, also bought a one-way ticket which he used on Jan 26, returning “approximately six weeks later…from a different continent.” 

Elizabeth Holmes and her partner William Evans in Oct 2022 (John G Mabanglo/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

Last January, Holmes’ lawyer told prosecutors that she made the reservation before the verdict, intending to attend a friend’s wedding. However, the verdict was handed down on Jan. 3 and prosecutors say the ticket was purchased Jan. 23. 

Prosecutors noted that, beyond the suspicious ticket purchase, her flight risk is magnified by her continued access to significant financial resources: 

“(Holmes) has lived on an estate for over a year where, based upon the monthly cash flow statement (Holmes) provided to the U.S. Probation Office, monthly expenses exceed $13,000,” prosecutors wrote in the filing. 

They also said Holmes “has shown no remorse to the victims of her fraud, despite an associated loss that the Court found was at least $120 million.” 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 08:45

The Mainstream Media Admits That We Are Facing “The Worst Food Crisis In Modern History”

0
The Mainstream Media Admits That We Are Facing “The Worst Food Crisis In Modern History”

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

People on the other side of the planet are dropping dead from starvation right now, but most people don’t even realize that this is happening.  Unfortunately, most people just assume that everything is fine and dandy.  If you are one of those people that believe that everything is just wonderful, I would encourage you to pay close attention to the details that I am about to share with you.  Global hunger is rapidly spreading, and that is because global food supplies have been getting tighter and tighter. 

If current trends continue, we could potentially be facing a nightmare scenario before this calendar year is over.

Pakistan is not one of the poorest nations in the world, but the lack of affordable food is starting to cause panic inside that country.  The following comes from Time Magazine

Last Saturday in Mirpur Khas, a city in Pakistan’s Sindh province, hundreds of people lined up for hours outside a park to buy subsidized wheat flour, offered for 65 rupees a kilogram instead of the current, inflated rate of about 140 to 160 rupees.

When a few trucks arrived, the crowd surged forward, leaving several injured. One man, Harsingh Kolhi, who was there to bring a five kg bag of flour home for his wife and children, was crushed and killed in the chaos.

We are seeing similar things happen all over the planet.

Just because you still may have enough food to eat doesn’t mean that everybody else is okay.

In fact, things have already gotten so bad that even CNN is admitting that we are facing “the worst food crisis in modern history”

Yet the world is still in the grips of the worst food crisis in modern history, as Russia’s war in Ukraine shakes global agricultural systems already grappling with the effects of extreme weather and the pandemic. Market conditions may have improved in recent months, but experts do not expect imminent relief.

That means more pain for vulnerable communities already struggling with hunger. It also boosts the risk of starvation and famine in countries such as Somalia, which is contending with what the United Nations describes as a “catastrophic” food emergency.

Sadly, it isn’t just in Somalia where the food crisis has reached “catastrophic” proportions.

According to Reuters, the entire continent is now dealing with the worst food crisis that Africa “has ever seen”…

Across Africa, from east to west, people are experiencing a food crisis that is bigger and more complex than the continent has ever seen, say diplomats and humanitarian workers.

Please go back and read that statement again.

Do you remember all those years when Sally Struthers was begging us to feed the starving children in Africa?

Well, the truth is that conditions are now far worse than when she was making those commercials.

At one hospital in Somalia, grieving mothers are regularly bringing in very young children that have literally starved to death

“Sometimes mothers bring us dead children,” said Farhia Moahmud Jama, head nurse at the paediatric emergency unit. “And they don’t know they’re dead.”

Weakened by hunger, camp residents are vulnerable to disease and people are dying due to a lack of food, said Nadifa Hussein Mohamed, who managed the camp where Isak’s family initially stayed.

“Maybe the whole world is hungry and donors are bankrupt, I don’t know,” she said. “But we’re calling out for help, and we do not see relief.”

UN officials are doing what they can to help, but the truth is that they are being absolutely overwhelmed by the scope of this crisis.

Over the past 12 months, the number of Africans that are dealing with “acute food insecurity” has absolutely exploded

The number of East Africans experiencing acute food insecurity – when a lack of food puts lives or livelihoods in immediate danger – has spiked by 60% in just the last year, and by nearly 40% in West Africa, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).

Sadly, a lot of Americans are simply not going to care about what is going on over there as long as we have enough food over here.

Of course food supplies continue to get tighter on our side of the planet as well.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, our corn harvest this year was the smallest in 15 years

Last year was a bad year for corn — the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report shows drought conditions and extreme weather wreaked havoc on croplands.

USDA unexpectedly slashed its outlook for domestic corn production amid a severe drought across the western farm belt. Farmers in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas were forced to abandon drought-plagued fields.

The agency estimated farmers harvested 79.2 million acres, a decline of 1.6 million acres versus the previous estimate — the smallest acres harvest since 2008.

That wouldn’t be so bad if our population was still the same size that it was back in 2008.

Other harvests have been extremely disappointing too, and that is one of the factors that has been steadily driving up food prices.

At this point, the average U.S. household is spending 72 more dollars on food per month than it was at this same time a year ago…

As inflation continues to decimate the budgets of American families, the December report from Moody’s Analytics showed that families are spending an estimated $72 more on food per month than they were a year ago.

That figure is pulled out of a report that says the typical US household is shelling out $371 on goods and services more than they were a year ago.

In particular, the price of eggs has gone completely nuts.

I recently came across an article about one small business owner that is now paying three times as much for eggs as she once did…

It just seems like the cost of everything is going up these days and that includes egg prices, which are affecting local businesses. “We used to buy 15 dozen eggs from Sam’s for 23 dollars. They are now 68 dollars,” said Cindy Gutierrez, the owner of Creative Cakes. “Now it’s about 63-ish for 15 dozen and it’s also hard to get 15 dozen,” said Caitlyn Wallace, the owner of Catie Pies.

The prices for eggs have surged three times their original price. According to the consumer price index, egg prices increased by 10% in October 2022 and that increase has continued to rise. This is causing a domino effect for restaurants, businesses, and bakeries who use eggs.

Economic conditions are changing so rapidly now, and nothing will ever be quite the same again.

As we move forward, the widespread use of “beetleburgers” is one of the “solutions” that the global elite are starting to push

Beetleburgers could soon be helping to feed the world, according to new research. The creepy crawlers’ larvae — better known as mealworms — could act as a meat alternative to alleviate hunger worldwide. The process uses a fraction of the land and water and emits a smaller carbon footprint in comparison of traditional farming.

To make this a reality, French biotech company Ynsect is planning a global network of insect farms, including nurseries and slaughterhouses. A pilot plant has already been been set up at Dole in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comte region of France.

Doesn’t that sound yummy?

Of course these “beetleburgers” will just be a drop in the bucket.

No matter what the global elite try, they will not be able to stop “the worst food crisis in modern history” from getting a whole lot worse.

So I would encourage you to stock up while you still can.

Global food supplies are getting a little bit tighter with each passing day, and I have a feeling that 2023 will have lots of “unexpected surprises” for all of us.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 08:10

Davos: Foreign Minister Of Slovenia Demands That Nations “Respect The Rules Of The World Order”

0
Davos: Foreign Minister Of Slovenia Demands That Nations “Respect The Rules Of The World Order”

Foreign minister of Slovenija, Tanja Fajon, signals her submission to the globalist agenda with a declaration (or demand) that sovereign nations must “respect” the international rules of the “world order”. 

Fajon is leader of the Social Democrats, part of the Party of European Socialists and a former member of the European Parliament from Slovenia.

Fajon was slated for a discussion on “global fragmentation”, which seems to be the underlying theme of the event in 2023. 

Globalists have hinted in multiple panels about their frustrations with national governments breaking from key agendas of the WEF, including global pandemic response, the war in Ukraine and climate change. 

In a tweet today, Fajon also called for greater inclusion of more corporate actors rather than just governments into WEF initiatives.

The tone of Davos has so far been decidedly morose, with many in attendance lamenting the outcomes of global pandemic measures and the lack of unification on climate change.  What they do not mention, at least not directly, is that much of this is due to mass public resistance in many regions.  It would seem that the establishment made assumptions about their progress in 2022 that did not come to fruition. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/21/2023 – 07:35