FAA ordered all airlines to halt domestic departures until 0900 ET.
Update 3: The FAA is still working to fully restore the Notice to Air Missions system following an outage.⁰⁰The FAA has ordered airlines to pause all domestic departures until 9 a.m. Eastern Time to allow the agency to validate the integrity of flight and safety information.
So far, 1,366 flights have been delayed within, into, or out of the US, flight tracking website FlightAware showed. Another 108 were canceled.
* * *
Update (0719ET):
“The FAA is still working to fully restore the Notice to Air Missions system following an outage … some functions are beginning to come back online, National Airspace System operations remain limited,” FAA tweeted.
Cleared Update No. 2 for all stakeholders: ⁰⁰The FAA is still working to fully restore the Notice to Air Missions system following an outage. ⁰⁰While some functions are beginning to come back on line, National Airspace System operations remain limited.
Early Wednesday morning, the US Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) system that notifies pilots about hazards or any changes to airport facility services suffered an outage that might result in a nationwide grounding.
The FAA wrote in an advisory update that its NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions) system had “failed.” The aviation agency provided no immediate estimate for when it would return online.
“THE FAA is experiencing an outage that is impacting the update of NOTAMS. All flights are unable to be released at this time,” the FAA said in a statement.
In a statement to NBC News, the FAA said, “Operations across the National Airspace System are affected.”
So far, 1,162 flights have been delayed within, into, or out of the US, flight tracking website FlightAware showed. Another 94 were canceled.
Flights are being grounded nationwide.
Just an FYI if you are planning to fly today (as I sit on a plane I boarded at 5am), FAA’s NOTAM system is down and basically all planes within and coming in and out of the U.S. are grounded. Our pilot says they have no idea when it will be functioning again. So. pic.twitter.com/4iW11Ns2vr
BREAKING NEWS: 🚨🚨
Dozens of flights have been delayed at Charleston International airport due to a FAA computer malfunction.
We haven’t seen any flights leave Charleston in the past 40-45 minutes.
Tune into @ABCNews4 for the latest updates #Working4Youpic.twitter.com/kcZugsJaqo
It’s probably not a good time to fly this morning.
BREAKING: Widespread U.S. flight delays expected after critical FAA system goes down; agency currently working on getting it back online pic.twitter.com/DVQAw4nsTE
Passengers are beginning to complain on social media about delayed flights.
FAA computer outage has grounded flights nationwide this morning. Boarded at 5:30AM as the first flight of the day. Currently delayed indefinitely. Idk if I’ll be making this cruise out of Florida… 😢🌴🚢 pic.twitter.com/SBy8q2sD2N
@AmericanAir I’ve been sitting on a full plane at the gate at LAX for 2+ hours for a system issue with the FAA. When will this be resolved? #flightdelay
The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history.
These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades.
The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.
The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.
If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.
More about these risks later in the article.
There is also a summary of my market views for 2023 and onwards at the end of the article.
CURIOSITY AND RISK
With a business life of over 52 years in banking, commerce and investments, I am fortunate to still learn every day and learning is really the joy of life. But the more you learn, the more you realise how little you really know.
Being a constant and curious learner means that life is never dull.
As Einstein said:
“The important thing is not to stop questioning.
Curiosity has its own reason for existing.”
There has been another important constancy in my life which is understanding and protecting RISK.
I learnt early on in my commercial life that it is critical to identify risk and endeavour to protect the downside. If you can achieve that, the upside normally takes care of itself.
Sometimes the risk is so clear that you want to stand on the barricades and shout. But sadly most investors are driven by greed and seldom see when markets become high risk.
The end of the 1980s was such an obvious period, especially in the property market. Stocks crashed in 1987 but if you are not leveraged, stock crashes normally don’t wipe you out. But in commercial property the leverage can kill a lot of investors and sadly did in the early 1990s.
The end of the 1990s was another period of very high risk in the tech sector. I was involved with a tech business in the UK and told the founder in late 1999 that we must sell the business for cash. This was the time when tech businesses were valued at 10x sales. Virtually none of them made a profit. So we managed to sell the business in 2000. We actually got shares as payment but were allowed to sell them immediately which we did. Thereafter the Nasdaq crashed by 80% and many businesses went bankrupt.
At those particular moments of extreme overvaluation, you do not have to be clever in order to get out and take profit. Super profits should always be realised when the valuation of businesses doesn’t make sense and the prospects don’t look good.
RISK OF MAJOR ESCALATION OF WAR
So let’s get back to the massive risks that are hanging over the world currently.
In my estimation this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine but between the US and Russia. Russia found it unacceptable that the Minsk agreement of 2014 was not kept to. Instead, the bombing of the Donbas area continued, allegedly encouraged by the US. As Ukraine intensified the bombing, Russia invaded in Feb 2022.
I won’t go into the details here of who is at fault etc. But what is clear is that the US Neocons have a major interest for this war to escalate. For them Ukraine is just a pawn and the real enemy is Russia. Why would the US otherwise lead the initiative to sanction Russia and send weapons and money to Ukraine but send no peace keepers to Russia?
Let us just remind ourselves that ordinary people never want war. The American people doesn’t want war, nor do the Russians or Ukrainians. It is without fail always the leaders who want war. And in most countries, even in the so called democratic USA, the leaders have total power when it comes to starting a war.
Most of Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. Still Europe is shooting itself in the foot by agreeing to the sanctions initiated by the US. The consequences are disastrous for Europe and especially Germany which was the economic engine of Europe. Germany is now finished as an economic power. Time will prove this.
The global economic downturn started before the Ukrainian war butthe situation has now severely deteriorated with the European economy weakening rapidly. Still, Europe is digging its own grave by sending more weapons and more money to Ukraine much of which being reported to end up in the wrong hands.
The Ukrainian leader Zelensky is skilfully inciting the West to escalate the war in order to achieve total NATO involvement.
The risk of a major escalation of the war is considerable. Russia’s main aim is for the Minsk agreement to be honoured whilst the US Neocons want to weaken Russia in a direct conflict. Major wars are often triggered by a minor event or a false flag.
The Neocons know that a defeat for the US in this conflict would be the end of the US dollar, hegemony and economy. At the same time, Russia is determined not to lose the war, whatever it takes. This is the kind of background that has a high risk of ending badly.
THE CONSEQUENCES ARE UNTHINKABLE
Since there is not a single Statesman in the West, dark forces behind the scenes are pulling the strings. This makes the situation particularly dangerous.
The risk of a nuclear war in such a situation is incalculable but still very real.
There are 13,000 nuclear warheads in the world and less than a handful of these would wipe out most of the West and a dozen, a major part of the world.
Let’s hope that the West comes to its senses. If not, the consequences are unthinkable.
FINANCIAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
The other nuclear cloud which is financial will fortunately not end the world if it detonates but inflict a major global setback that could last many years, maybe decades.
This can be illustrated in a number of pictures so let us look at two self explanatory graphs.
The first one shows how global debt has grown 75X from $4 trillion to $300T since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.
The graph also shows that the world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030. That sounds like a sensational figure but the explanation is simple. Derivatives were around $1.4 quadrillion over 10 years ago as reported by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) in Basel. But with some hocus-pocus they reduced the figure to $600 trillion to make it look better cosmetically. The BIS decided just to take just one side of a contract as the outstanding risk. But we all know, it is the gross risk that counts. When a counterparty fails, gross risk remains gross. So as far as I am concerned, the old base figure was still $1.4Q.
Since then derivatives have grown exponentially. Major amounts of debt are now created in the derivatives market rather then in the cash market. Also, the shadow banking system of hedge funds, insurance companies and other financial business are also major issuers of derivatives. Many of these transactions are not in the BIS figures. Thus I believe it is realistic to assume that the derivatives market has grown at least in line with debt but probably a lot faster in the last 10+ years. So the gross figure is easily in excess of $2 quadrillion today.
When the debt crisis starts in earnest which could be today or in the next 2-3 years, major defaults in derivatives will become debt as central banks print money on an unprecedented scale in a futile attempt to save the financial system. This is how debt can grow to $3Q by 2030 as the graph illustrates.
US GDP GROWTH IS ILLUSORY
The second graph shows that the US, the world’s biggest economy, is living on both borrowed time and money.
In 1970 total US debt was 1.5X GDP. Today is is 3.6X. This means that in order to achieve a nominal growth in GDP, debt had to grow 2.5X as fast as GDP.
The conclusion is simple. Without credit and printed money there would be no real GDP growth. So the growth of the US economy is an illusion manufactured by bankers and led by the private Federal Reserve Bank. As the graph above shows, GDP can only grow if debt grows at an exponential rate.
The gap between debt and GDP growth is clearly unsustainable. Still with hysterical money printing in the next few years, in an attempt to save the US financial system, the gap is likely to widen even further before it is eroded.
There is only one way for the gap to narrow which is an implosion of the debt through default, both sovereign and private. Such an implosion will also lead to all assets inflated by the debt – including bonds, stocks and property – also imploding.
Temporarily the US has achieved this illusory wealth but sadly the time is now coming when the Piper must be paid.
THE END OF THE DOLLAR
The days of the dollar as reserve currency are counted. A currency that has lost 98% in the last 50 years hardly deserves the status of a reserve currency. A combination of military might, petrodollar payments and history has kept the dollar far too strong for much too long. Since there is no immediate alternative, it is possible that the dollar temporarily will remain strong for a while as the Ukrainian conflict continues. The economies of other currencies (Euro, Pound, Yen) are clearly too weak currently to be realistic reserve currency contenders.
The days of the Petrodollar are also counted.
Major moves are now taking place between the world’s biggest energy producers (excluding the US) which will gradually end the Petrodollar system.
A GLOBAL RECEPE FOR DISASTER
But firstly let’s understand that in spite of the climate zealots, there will be no serious alternative to fossil fuels for many decades. Fossil fuels account for 83% of global energy.
Global growth can only be achieved with energy. Since renewables today only account for 6% and are growing very slowly, there will be no serious alternative to fossil fuels for many decades.
In spite of that, Western governments in Europe and the US have not only stopped investing in fossil fuels, but also closed down pipe lines, coal mines and nuclear power plants. This is of course sheer political and economic lunacy and a very rapid method to achieve a collapse of the world economy. Add to that the Russian sanctions and we have a global recipe for disaster.
Without fossil fuels, the world economy will collapse. In spite of that, political pressure has slowed down fossil fuel production substantially. As the graph shows, fossil fuel production is likely to decline by 26% by 2048. Increases in nuclear and, hydro and renewables will not compensate for that fall. The effect will be a fall in global GDP and trade. But more about the energy side in another article.
Few people understand the importance of global trade. Rome conquered many countries from Europe to Asia and Africa. But during the Roman Empire, the various economies prospered due to free trade. The Romans were clearly superior thinkers compared to current Western leaders.
MAJOR SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
The GCC countries (Gulf Corporation Council) consist of Saudi Arabia, UAE plus a number of Gulf countries have 40% of the oil reserves in the world.
Another 40% of oil reserves belong to Russia, Iran and Venezuela all selling oil to China at a discount currently.
In addition there are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Saudi Arabia also want to join the BRICS which represents 41% of the global population and 26% of global GDP.
Finally there is the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This is a Eurasian political, economic and security organisation headquartered in China. It covers 60% of the area of Eurasia and over 30% of global GDP.
All of these organisations and countries (BRICS, GCC, SCO) are gradually going to gain global importance as the US, and Europe decline. They will cooperate both politically, commercially and financially. As energy and oil is a common denominator for these countries, they will most likely operate with the Petroyuan as their common currency for trading.
With such a powerful constellation, minor hobbyist groups like Schwab’s WEF will dwarf in significance and finally disappear as the WEF members including the political leaders lose their power and the billionaires their wealth.
MAJOR MOVES IN MARKETS
This article is already very long but I will still cover what I see in markets in 2023 and coming years. I have covered this in many articles so I will be brief.
Stocks have just had a major down year globally. This is the mere beginning of the implosion of the extreme overvaluation based on printed money. I would be surprised if stocks on average decline by less than 90% in real terms. The measure for real terms is of course gold.
It will not be a straight line fall and many investors will buy the dips until they have exhausted most of their wealth.
Bonds will probably perform even worse than stocks. Many borrowers, both sovereign and commercial, will default.
The 40 year decline in interest rates has finished. Central banks will lose control of the interest markets as investors panic out of bonds.
The combination of high inflation, collapsing currencies and defaults on a massive scale will turn the bond market into a historic horror story.
The bond equation is simple:
Hyperinflation + Currencies going to Zero + Defaults = BOND VALUES ZERO
Good luck to bond holders. They will need it.
Investment properties will also fare badly. Low interest rates and unlimited credit have created a bubble of historic proportions.
In many countries it has been possible to borrow up to 15 year money at 1% or less. Anyone who didn’t take advantage of free money will regret it badly. The risk reward calculation was obvious. At 1%, rates could only go to zero which is a 1% fall. On the other hand, rates could go to 20%+ like they did in the 1970s.
Falls of 75-90% in real terms will be commonplace in the property market.
If you have no mortgage or a low one at a fixed rate, don’t worry. But just look at it as an abode and not an investment.
Lastly and most importantly let’s look at GOLD.
We invested heavily into gold in early 2002 at $300 for ourselves and the investors we advised. This was based on our risk assessment of the financial system and a gold price which had declined for over 20 years. We were certain that gold was undervalued at the time and also that it was the ultimate wealth preservation investment.
Since that time we and our clients have not ever worried one day about our gold holdings. As a matter of fact, gold today in relation to money supply is cheaper than in 2002 and therefore represents superb value.
2023 will be the start of another gold era. The circumstances are perfect for this.
Back in mid September I tweeted that gold was bottoming when the price was $1665 and that we would see $2,000 at least in 2022. Well as I often say, forecasting is a mug’s game and we are “only” at $1,875 today. See graph below which was Tweeted in Sep 21.
Considering the two nuclear risks discussed above, the gold price becomes irrelevant. Physical gold is the ultimate wealth preservation investment. The value should be measured in ounces or kilos and not in ephemeral currencies.
Gold is likely to reach levels that no one can imagine today. But to forecast a price in paper money serves no purpose without defining the purchasing power of the fiat money at some future point.
Gold is the metal of kings and should be the primary wealth preservation holding. Silver has a massive potential but is much more volatile and much bulkier.
It is extremely important how gold is stored. The principal part of your gold holding should be outside your country of residency. You should be able to flee to your gold.
Do not store gold at home. With crime rates surging globally and likely to go up much further, it is extremely unwise to store gold at home. Add to that likely social unrest in most countries, whatever valuables you store at home are at risk however well hidden you think they are.
There is no perfect country to store gold today. The world has become a generally unsafe place. Our company has carried out a major review of the best countries to store gold globally. This will be published at some future point.
Switzerland is still one of our favourites. The combination of the political system, history and 70% of gold bars being refined in Switzerland plus most private gold being stored here, makes it an obvious choice.
Our company also has a major advantage in being able to offer the only private vault which is nuclear bomb proof and can operate fully under any such circumstances. We also offer full data backup even against EMP risks (Electro Magnetic Pulse). I am not aware of anyone in our industry that offers this protection. The location of this vault is confidential. Here is a brief video which shows the uniqueness of the vault:
To summarise, the risks today are greater than anytime in history. A full nuclear war between the US, Russia and China is the end of mankind and no one can protect against this kind of event.
But there are more limited situations, whether nuclear or with conventional weapons which necessitate the best protection possible of your wealth preservation asset.
Let’s hope that a major nuclear war will not take place. In any case, there is very little we can do about it.
The financial nuclear risk is very real and also very likely to be triggered in my view. Anyone who can has a responsibility to organise protection against this risk as discussed in this article.
Finally remember that in periods of crisis family and friends is your most important protection. Helping others will be essential in a coming crisis.
China Jet Fuel Demand Set To Soar Ahead Of Lunar New Year
China’s oil demand could surge as it reopens after scraping zero Covid restrictions. Beijing’s Covid curbs weighed on crude and refined products demand for three years. Soaring air travel demand ahead of the Lunar New Year is yet more evidence fuel demand is gathering steam.
China’s easing of border restrictions imposed almost three years ago has been a recent boon for air travel, domestically and internationally. There are no more mandatory quarantines for travelers arriving in China.
BloombergNEF said jet fuel demand is rising in China ahead of the holidays. They noted that scheduled passenger flights for Jan 10 to 16 indicate jet fuel demand has reached about 0.61 million barrels per day (mbpd), rising 0.10 mbpd compared with a week earlier. Then by next week, jet fuel demand could increase to 0.72 mbpd. This would mark the highest demand for Chinese jet fuel in more than 1.5 years.
Another sign China’s oil demand is rebounding is a massive quota for crude imports by refiners. Traders with direct knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg that quotas for this year are already 132 million tons, compared to 109 million tons of crude oil import as of this time last year.
China’s reopening is driving fuel demand growth and could steadily rise after the Covid infection wave wanes in the next few months.
Early on Tuesday, Brent Crude prices hovered around $80 per barrel.
“I think oil will go upwards of $140 a barrel once Asia fully reopens, assuming there will be no more lockdowns,” he said, adding that the “market is underestimating the scale of the demand boost that it will bring.”
Andurand tweeted a startling analog of what could be next for crude prices.
Also, Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, told clients this week that her team is “confident that oil prices will climb again once the current wave of COVID infections has peaked in China and economic activity picks up.”
And all of this begs the question of whether a China reopening could mark a bottom for the energy complex. There’s still a risk a central bank-induced global recession is possible. The World Bank warned Tuesday recession threats were mounting.
Guinness Hikes Beer Prices In Ireland, Risking “Financial Hardship For Many”
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar says a move by Guinness to raise prices of a pint in Ireland would cause “financial hardship for many,” after the company announced an increase of 12 euro-cents per pint.
The move has prompted calls for London-based parent company, Diageo Plc, to reverse the decision. According to Diageo, they can no longer afford to absorb rising costs – following fellow beverage company Heineken NV, which slapped a 17 euro-cent increase on its products in December.
Diageo reported a profit of £3.34 billion ($4.1 billion) during its latest fiscal year, according to Bloomberg.
Vintners Federation of Ireland Chief Executive Paul Clancy said publicans were “getting hammered from every angle” and described Diageo’s move as a further difficulty for his members.
“We’re heading into the quietest few months of the year for the trade, so the increase in the price of a pint couldn’t come at a worse time. Due to the unprecedented cost of doing business publicans will have to pass on this price increase to their customers, which is something they are very unhappy about,” he said. -Bloomberg
According to PM Varadkar, he doesn’t think the increase will put any pubs out of business, but that given the overall cost of living, it would cause hardship. He added that he’s surprised more pubs aren’t taking Ireland up on an energy subsidy scheme.
By Stefan Koopman, Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist
The week in Asia and Europe started off with a continuation of 2023’s decidedly positive risk appetite, but this nonetheless faded during US hours. This morning’s handover from Asia trading to Europe is rather weak too, with the Stoxx 600 slipping around 0.6% after reaching a 9-month high on yesterday. The weaker sentiment is ascribed to some hawkish comments from the Fed’s Daly and Bostic; the latter said that US rates need to be raised above 5% and to be held there for “a long time”. Even though Fed policy makers continuously seek to keep expectations of a pivot in check, they haven’t been very convincing at that: swaps markets are currently pricing nearly 50 bps of cuts in the second half of this year. Consequentially, EUR/USD holds well-above 1.07 – the highest in seven months.
The “will they/won’t they”-pivot chatter is likely going to continue for months on end, and will surely be covered in numerous Global Dailies to come, so it’s perhaps a good moment to have a look at something else and to have a look of what Brexit has in store for us in 2023.
Investors are forgiven to have missed some of its more recent developments, as it has been a long time since Brexit made headlines that actually affected markets on a day-to-day basis. However, both Brexit and the intense period of politics following it are closely connected to the UK’s current multiple crises. One example is the mini-Budget, which was initially touted as the ultimate fulfilment of Brexit by many of its supporters, but turned out to be a disaster when fantasies met realities. Some of the other crises that are at least indirectly Brexit-related include the potentially persistently high level of inflation, the wave of strike action, potential food supply issues, and the risk of a UK-specific energy crisis. These issues are essential for a functional democracy, and even though Brexit may not have a daily impact on markets anymore, the country’s desire for radical changes to the status quo was a tell-tale sign of its structural decline.
The United Kingdom has become, quite literally, the sick man of Europe. Not only has its productivity growth lagged behind that of other G7 countries for more than a decade, its self-inflicted wounds are now also impacting its healthcare system and, in a very unhealthy feedback loop, the supply of labour at a macro-economically highly relevant scale. At the same time, the Conservative party continues to be dominated by incompetent right-wing populists, which limits the ability of some of the better-intentioned but, frankly, clueless technocrats to address these problems: you would think that nearly 50,000 unfilled nursing positions should even convince the most ardent libertarians that their pay is too low. More strike action is coming in the upcoming days, weeks, and months, only further impairing the country’s economic supply.
So, what is the latest on Brexit? How is the current ‘mood music’ in these perennial talks between the United Kingdom and the European Union? The current negotiations centre on the implementation and possible renegotiation of the Northern Ireland Protocol. This Protocol has caused tension in Northern Ireland – where the unionists of the DUP have refused to nominate a Deputy First Minister until it is “scrapped or changed” – as well as between the UK and the EU. The good news on this front is that parties are currently finally working seriously and pragmatically to reach an agreement on the protocol’s implementation, with hopes that some deliverables will be achieved in time for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement in April. The quarter-centenary would indeed be rather embarrassing if the institutions that were set up under the treaty are non-operational and the cross-community political consensus it aimed to create is visibly broken.
Yesterday, the UK and EU reached an accord to use the UK’s data-sharing system to track goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. This new database provides real-time customs and commercial data on goods, such as agri-food or industrial machinery, being transported across the Irish Sea. It is the first concrete sign of progress in the dispute over post-Brexit trading rules. A continued ‘de-dramatisation’ and serious progress on trade flows and customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland may eventually unlock further progress on a whole host of other issues, such as the deal’s governance and food safety regulations.
It is to be seen whether the current progress will eventually be sufficient for the Northern Ireland unionists to agree to return to the Northern Ireland Assembly, which they currently boycott. The DUP have stated that they will not return until their concerns about the Protocol are fully addressed (although, as we’ve seen in the recent past, tax handouts do miracles). Yes, increased political pressure from US Democrats, who want to see this being resolved before even thinking about a UK-US trade deal, may eventually result in a partial agreement on trade flows between the UK and the EU, but it remains unlikely that such a deal will be comprehensive enough to fully resolve all issues related to the Protocol and to placate the DUP and the Conservative Party’s own hardliners.
Given that it took more than six months to agree something ‘technical’ as data sharing, the most likely outcome at this point seems to be that another deadline will pass with no comprehensive resolution. Even worse, the risk is that if hardly any progress on the issue of Northern Ireland is made in the next few months and if the UK government decides to still pursue its unilateral Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, a whole host of other issues may again resurface. More specifically, the EU will be keeping a close eye on the UK’s efforts to eliminate inherited EU laws through the new Retained EU Law Bill, suspecting that the UK may be attempting to gain an unfair competitive advantage with a bonfire of regulations.
In a speech, the Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill linked all of the problems described above to the possible “persistence” of inflationary pressures in the UK relative to other economies.
It has indeed often been said that the UK’s unique inflation problem combined the worst of both the US (soft labour supply) and Europe (skyrocketing energy prices) with some UK-specific goods and services market bottlenecks added to it. This should keep inflation elevated throughout 2023
and well into 2024, making a Bank of England pivot a remote prospect. We look for Bank rate to rise to 4.75% by this summer.
French Workers Vow “Mother Of All Battles” As Macron Govt To Raise Retirement Age To 64
Get ready for the riots to break out… France’s government has just proposed raising the legal retirement age as it embarks on significant reforms to the pension system, and not for the first time. The Macron government going years back was already met with fierce pushback and anger upon earlier similar proposals and major overhaul attempts. The plan was unveiled Tuesday by Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, and proposes raising legal retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030.
The plan stopped short of Macron’s previously proposed 65, and an outline of the proposal seeks to require that workers pay into the system for two more years, raising this from the current 41 to 43 years paying in.
The Macron government has argued a major overhaul is urgently necessary to stave off a coming huge deficit in the system. Macron has been pushing for such reforms since his first election in 2017.
According to the details of the plan as summarized in BBC:
A full pension from 2027 will require working for 43 years (instead of 42 years currently)
Guaranteed minimum pension income of not less than 85% of the net minimum wage, roughly €1,200 (£1,060) per month at current levels, for new retirees
Police officers, prison guards, air traffic controllers and other public workers in jobs deemed physically or mentally arduous will keep the right to retire early
Their retirement age will be increased by the same number of years as the wider labor force
End to so-called “special regimes” with different retirement ages and benefits for rail workers, electricity and gas workers, among others.
Some of the above listed ‘sweeteners’ such as the increase in minimum pension to around €1,200 over and above the current €900 is an attempt to win the public’s support ahead of it being presented to parliament in the next weeks.
Widely cited recent polls point to around 70-80% of the population opposing Macron’s desired retirement age of 64. Already labor unions are planning large protests to begin next week, including some strikes set to begin Jan.19, with the FT citing the following union leaders touting they are ready for the “mother of all battles”:
Frédéric Souillot, head of the Force Ouvrière union, put the government on notice earlier this week that unions were willing to shut down the economy to stop the pensions law. “If for Emmanuel Macron this is the mother of all reforms, then for us it is the mother of all battles,” he said.
Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon called the proposal a “grave social regression”, while Le Pen called it “unjust” and said the French could count on her far-right party’s “total determination” to block it.
Protests have already been growing in some locales, with larger demonstrations expected next week…
Thousands of gilets jaunes (yellow vests) have taken to the streets of Paris to protest Pres Macron’s reform of the country’s retirement system & inept handling of the inflation problem. Strikes & protests are grinding France to a halt. Take a look:pic.twitter.com/Gcoo1NDorC
It comes at a moment of rising cost of living across Europe and the West broadly, and amid deep uncertainty over near-future term energy and food prices related to the Ukraine war and fast-moving geopolitical events.
PM Borne is setting out to convince the population that the system must “evolve to ensure its future” – given especially that other European countries have already adjusted. “I know French people are worried about the changes, and we want to explain it and convince them,” she sought to assure.
Will the European Union or certain countries in the EU ban meat production in order to meet emission regulations? In short, the answer is yes. There is a very real possibility in the near future that a member country (probably Sweden, Denmark, or the Netherlands) will impose a tax or an outright ban on meat production.
Why Sweden, Denmark, or the Netherlands? While this sounds absolutely crazy, part of the rationale is to avoid legal issues with the EU. A handful of European countries have legally binding net-zero plans for emissions and climate metrics, and the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark are small countries with large agricultural footprints. Small landmass with heavy agriculture industry makes for an easy target.
I wrote about such conflicting issues last month with the Netherlands closing down farms. The Dutch, like the Swedes and the Danes, are very serious about reducing emissions, as well as limiting meat consumption. The problem is they consume and produce lots of meat.
In Haarlem, a city west of Amsterdam, they have banned meat advertisements starting in 2024. Treating meat like cigarettes or alcohol to impose meat alternatives on consumers so consumers can eat highly processed fake meat products, or rely on imported meat, is a major turning point in reason and rationale.
Saxo Bank market strategist Charu Chanana stated in Saxo’s end of the year predictions that Sweden or Denmark “may decide to heavily tax meat from 2025 and could ban all domestically produced live animal-sourced meat entirely by 2030.” Charu added: “I wouldn’t be surprised to see schools in Denmark and Sweden banning meat altogether. It’s definitely going that way.”
In Sweden, statements purporting that Swedish meat consumption is declining and vegetarianism is on the rise contradict official statistics. According to recent EuroMeatNews and data from the Swedish Board of Agriculture, “Demand for Swedish meat and poultry increased significantly.”
Beef, pork, and poultry aside, the Swedes like their seafood. Most of their seafood is imported. According to a 2019 report from the University of Gothenburg: “72 percent of Swedish seafood comes from imports and 28 percent from domestic producers.” It is worth noting that 90 percent of the 72 percent of seafood imports come from China.
As for Denmark, Denmark has a sizable meat industry. Danish meat revenue amounted to $4.40 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow annually by 5 percent-plus. The Danes produce a huge amount of pork for markets—around 32 million piglets a year—and millions of those pigs are sold to the European Union (predominantly Germany and Poland). For comparison, 32 million piglets is almost twice the number of piglets that Canada sells to the United States each year.
Furthermore, while Denmark’s government and their EU representatives have meat production in the crosshairs for additional regulation and tax, they are certainly not against harvesting animals for fur. In Denmark, mink farming is very lucrative, and Denmark is one of the world’s largest producers of mink furs; there are thousands of mink farming operations, and tens of millions of mink. Latest figures show upwards of 98 percent of mink fur harvested in Denmark is exported to foreign markets. It’s a huge money maker.
In fact, Denmark’s mink are so plentiful, they’ve become an invasive species in Denmark, destroying local ecosystems. How is this not an issue?
I am not against lower emissions, or animal welfare, or even the growing popularity of vegetarianism, but I am against irrational thought processes from totalitarian technocrats.
Shuttering farms and banning meat production is not a rational strategy. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 14.5 percent of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to livestock. However, according to the science journal Nature Food, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and South America are the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gasses.
Is it not a better idea to place limits and regulations on those who emit the most pollution and greenhouse gasses (in this case, Asia and South America)?
I find it highly irritating that Asia and South America continue on with endless pollution, while leaders in the Western world plot to destroy industry in the name of emissions controls. Westerners should not sit back and allow Asian and South American countries to catch up to our standards by using growth methods that pollute while Western markets are punished for economic success.
Let the socialists experiment with Asia and South America and allow the economic engines of the Western world to flourish, without interference from Marxist totalitarians.
Armenia Lashes Out At Russia, Cancels Military Drills On Its Territory
Armenia has canceled planned military drills with Russia which were to be held under the countries’ Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), straining relations further between the uneasy regional allies.
“These exercises will not take place,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told a Tuesday press briefing. “Armenia does not believe it is expedient to conduct CSTO exercises in the republic this year.”
It’s a sign that the protracted war in Ukraine is causing Moscow to lose influence in the Southern Caucasus region, but it also follows the CSTO refusing to condemn Azerbaijan aggression related to the Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020, and other skirmishes which followed.
Armenia had consistently called on Russia to intervene on its side, but the Kremlin resisted, instead only sending peace-keeping troops to mediate what in the end was a forced Armenian handover of key disputed land and villages it lost in the 2020 war.
Pashinyan in his latest comments specifically referenced the CSTO refusing to formally condemn Azerbaijan.
It’s an embarrassing blow to Russia, given its defense ministry just this month announced multiple joint exercises under the CSTO umbrella, at least one of which was supposed to be hosted in Armenia, dubbed the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2023” exercises.
Pashinyan addressed this head-on in his Tuesday comments: “Russia’s military presence in Armenia not only fails to guarantee its security, but it raises security threats for Armenia,” he said.
The Associated Press reviews of past two years of tense relations as follows:
The Azerbaijani move has left Russia in a precarious position. Armenia hosts a Russian military base, and Moscow has been the country’s top ally and sponsor. But the Kremlin also has sought to maintain warm ties with oil-rich Azerbaijan. Western sanctions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine have made Russia increasingly dependent on Azerbaijan’s main ally, Turkey.
With its attention focused on the fighting in Ukraine, Russia has taken a wait-and-see attitude on the Lachin corridor blockade, angering Armenia.
Previously Armenian officials had claim that Moscow was pressuring the country to become a close ally nation of the Russia-Belarus ‘Union State’ – something which Russia has denied.
Armenia lost significant historical territory as a result of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war…
The Kremlin responded to Armenia’s cancelation of joint drills by saying, “In any case, Armenia is our close ally, and we will continue our dialogue, including the most complex issues,” according to a statement by Dmitry Peskov.
The biggest EU corruption scandal in history didn’t have to end with police investigations and arrests, but maybe Qatar can do better next time around…
After news broke of the biggest corruption scandal in EU history, it was difficult to fathom what Qatar, Socialist MEPs, and other EU officials were thinking. Did the police really find €1.6 million in bribe money found stuffed in paper bags and suitcases in their apartments? What happened to crypto and offshore bank accounts? It was cinematically and aesthetically very 1980s.
Regardless of the cinematic value, all of this “dirty bribe money” makes Qatar look very bad, and as the investigation grows, it is unclear how many from the EU’s left could be dragged down by corruption charges. While there may be a certain romance to stacks of cash neatly piled up in Louis Vuitton suitcases, there is a whole system of legal patronage that Brussels is built on. It’s about time someone told Qatar how the EU actually works.
Offer ‘side jobs’ for EU MEPs and officials
In Brussels, bribery is legal and thriving, and nobody has to serve a day in prison for taking a cut. MEPs are even allowed to accrue substantial fortunes by legally working part-time (representing citizens at the European level is apparently not necessarily a full-time job).
It is not just about George Soros and his frankly impressive network of NGOs, think tanks, and the massive sums of money they can throw around. There’s a wide range of special interests that promote their agenda through entirely legal lobbying. In fact, as a report shows, MEPs are collectively earning millions working various side jobs in addition to their role as politicians in the EU, often with a clear conflict of interest. Many of these people are already millionaires, and for those who are not, the salary of MEPs and EU officials are already the envy of most Europeans. Yet, there is always more money to be made.
Belgian police today released this photo of piles of cash in €200, €50, €20 and €10 notes. Sources said €150,000 of that was found at Greek MEP Eva Kaili’s flat. But she denies involvement in alleged #QatarGate@Europarl_EN bribery scandal. pic.twitter.com/pdjAwp0I2q
Take for instance MEP Guy Verhofstadt, a notorious hater of Hungary. Despite his association with left-wing policies, he is a very wealthy individual. He served as the former prime minister of Belgium before entering politics at the EU level and routinely ranked as one of the highest-earning politicians in the entire European Parliament. According to a report from Transparency International (TI) from 2018, records show he earned between €920,000 and €1.4 million in that year alone. That money comes on top of his salary as a member of parliament, which already amounts to approximately €13,000 per month, according to a report from Belgian news outlet BRF. A report from 2021, also citing TI data, put him in the top five earners in the European Parliament.
In other words, MEPs and officials can be bought, but they have to be bought the right way.
Qatar needs to adjust its bribe price
Qatar also needs to understand that politicians do not need millions in bribe money to do the country’s bidding. To Socialist MEP Eva Kaili’s credit, her newfound loyalty to Qatar did not come cheap, but in all likelihood, her loyalty could have been bought for far less. There are U.S. Republican think tanks and politicians bought off for a few thousand dollars by Google and other Big Tech companies. The money lobbyists offer is supposed to keep you on a leash, not set you up for retirement on a yacht.
A recent report from the Hungarian media details how it normally works within the EU if you want to buy influence. The report details how Soros’ Open Society Foundations does not, for example, pay journalists outright, but instead “covers” their costs, including lunches, stays in expensive hotels, and paid “trips.” Sometimes it is too difficult to hand officials money outright. Instead, NGOs end up contracting with a media worker for a whole month and spend around €10,000 paying that person’s bills instead of directly paying the journalist a fee or salary.
“It is customary, for example, that we go to brunch with them, but if we publish a report, we also take care of them. They are more likely to write these things if you have a communications package,” Orsolya Jeney, the former director of Amnesty International, told Hungarian news portal Origo.
Although this example applies to journalists, with politicians and officials, you can go much farther, such as a spoken or outspoken promise of a well-paid “honorary” board position at an NGO or corporation, often after they leave their position. Paid speeches are also a very lucrative option, one which U.S. politicians have made tens of millions. The revolving door between the corporate, non-profit, and political world is the status quo in the Western world, and especially in Brussels and Washington.
However, the obscene amounts of money being paid out by the Qataris likely not only made it harder to hide that money, but it probably also infuriated the journalists and other politicians making far less for their entirely legal bribes. It is almost tempting to think that the surprisingly extensive coverage of the latest EU corruption scandal may be born out of fear and jealousy that Qatar simply set the price of bribes too high. The Middle Eastern country entirely distorted the market for this kind of thing by throwing around that kind of money.
Qatar can overcome its poor image
Some may say that Qatar has the type of reputation that makes it difficult for an MEP or European official to openly lobby for the country. However, hundreds of so-called liberals have worked for Al Jazeera, despite the news outlet being funded by a state known for having no form of democracy and being governed by sharia law. George Soros also never let his background as an unscrupulous currency speculator or his insider trading conviction get in the way of being the darling of the entire left-liberal establishment.
This should all be an inspiration to Qatar. The formula is there. The country just needs to spend the money, build the NGO and media networks, and work within the system. It should also not be forgotten that Qatar not only has an enormous amount of money, but the country’s gas will also likely be needed to keep the lights on in Europe after the continent cuts itself off from Russian energy.
Be careful who you bribe
If Qatar cannot be bothered with the whole NGO network and legal bribery and wants to continue down the path of illegal bribery, it is important the country picks the right people to work with.
There were already warning signs from MEP Eva Kaili. Although officially a Socialist, she was the type of person who had a penchant for private jets, silk scarves from Hermes, and romps on Greek islands. As Focus online details, her Instagram is full of glossy shots of her jet-setting around the world and rubbing elbows with the rich and famous, including Greek oligarchs. She liked to flaunt her lifestyle, and as any good criminal knows, if you suddenly illicitly make hundreds of thousands, it is best to keep it quiet. Instead, Kaili was reportedly looking to buy luxury property in Brussels shortly before she was arrested.
Apparently, Kaili was not very quiet about her bribe money either, openly speaking to her accomplice over the phone while Belgian investigators listened in. She may not have been, in the end, the type of person Qatar could rely on to hide that kind of bribe money. Perhaps the oil-rich kingdom can do better next time around.
In recent weeks I’ve been seeing an interesting narrative fallacy being sold to the general public when it comes to the designs of globalists. The mainstream media and others are now openly suggesting that it’s actually okay to be opposed to certain aspects of groups like the World Economic Forum. They give you permission to be concerned, just don’t dare call it conspiracy.
This propaganda is a deviation from the abject denials we’re accustomed to hearing in the Liberty Movement for the past decade or more. We have all been confronted with the usual cognitive dissonance – The claims that globalist groups “just sit around talking about boring economic issues” and nothing they do has any bearing on global politics or your everyday life. In some cases we were even told that these groups of elites “don’t exist”.
Now, the media is admitting that yes, perhaps the globalists do have more than just a little influence over governments, social policies and economic outcomes. But, what the mainstream doesn’t like is the assertion that globalists have nefarious or authoritarian intentions. That’s just crazy tinfoil hat talk, right?
The reason for the narrative shift is obvious. Far too many people witnessed the true globalist agenda in action during the pandemic lockdowns and now they see the conspiracy for what it is. The globalists, in turn, seem to have been shocked to discover many millions of people in opposition to the mandates and the refusals to comply were clearly far greater than they expected. They are still trying to push their brand of covid fear, but the cat is out of the bag now.
They failed to get what they wanted in the west, which was a perpetual Chinese-style medical tyranny with vaccine passports as the norm. So, the globalist strategy has changed and they are seeking to adapt. They admit to a certain level of influence, but they pretend as if they are benevolent or indifferent.
The response to this lie is relatively straightforward. I could point out how Klaus Schwab of the WEF savored the thrill of the initial pandemic outbreak and declared that covid was the perfect “opportunity” to initiate what the WEF calls the “Great Reset.”
I could also point out that Klaus Schwab’s vision of the Reset, what he calls the “4th Industrial Revolution”, is a veritable nightmare world in which Artificial Intelligence runs everything, society is condensed into digital enclaves called “smart cities” and people are oppressed by carbon taxation. I could point out that the WEF actively supports the concept of the “Shared Economy” in which you will “own nothing, have no privacy” and you will supposedly be happy about it, but only because you won’t have any other choice.
What I really want to talk about, however, is the process by which the elites hope to achieve their dystopian epoch, as well as the globalist mindset which lends itself to the horrors of technocracy. The common naive assumption among skeptics of conspiracy is that the globalists are regular human beings with the same drives and limited desires as the rest of us. They might have some power, but world events are still random and certainly not controlled.
This is a fallacy. The globalists are not like us. They are not human. Or, I should say, they despise humanity and seek to do away with it. And, because of this, they have entirely different aspirations compared to the majority of us which include aspirations of dominance.
What we are dealing with here are not normal people with conscience, ethics or empathy. Their behavior is much more akin to higher functioning psychopaths and sociopaths rather than the everyday person on the street. We saw this on full display during the covid lockdowns and the vicious attempts to enforce vaccine passports; their actions betray their long game.
Take a look at comments by New Zealand’s prime minister and WEF attendee, Jacinda Ardern, from a year ago. She admits to the deliberate tactic of creating a two-tier class system within her own country based on vaccination status. There is no remorse or guilt in her demeanor, she is proud of taking such authoritarian actions despite numerous studies that prove the mandates are ineffective.
Beyond the covid response, though, I suggest people who deny globalist conspiracy take a deeper dive into the philosophical roots of organizations like the WEF. Their entire ideology can be summed up in a couple words – Futurism and godhood.
Futurism is an ideological movement which believes that all “new” innovations, social or technological, should supplant the previous existing systems for the sake of progress. They believe that all old ways of thinking, including notions of principles, heritage, religious belief systems, codes of conduct, etc. are crutches holding humanity back from greatness.
But what is the greatness the futurists seek? As mentioned above, they want godhood. An era in which the natural world and human will is enslaved by the hands of a select few. Case in point – The following presentation from 2018 by WEF “guru” Yuval Harari on the future of humanity as the globalists see it:
Harari’s conclusions are rooted in elitist biases and ignore numerous psychological and social realities, but we can set those aside for a moment and examine his basic premise that humanity as we know it will no longer exist in the next century because of “digital evolution” and “human hacking.”
The foundation of the WEF vision is built on the idea that data is the new Holy Grail, the new conquest. This is something I have written about extensively in the past (check out my article ‘Artificial Intelligence: A Secular Look At The Digital Antichrist’) but it is good to see it expressed with such arrogance by someone like Harari because it is undeniable evidence – The globalists think they are going to build a completely centralized economy and society based on human data rather than production. In other words, YOU become the product. The average citizen, your thoughts and your behaviors, become the stock in trade.
Globalists also believe that data is most valuable because it can be exploited to control people’s behaviors, to hack the body and mind in order to create human puppets, or create super-beings. They dream of becoming little gods with omnipotent knowledge. Yuval even proudly proclaims that intelligent design will no longer be the realm of God in heaven, but of the new digitized man.
While Harari pays lip service to “democracy” vs “digital dictatorship”, he goes on to assert that centralization may become the defacto system of governance. He says this not because he fears dictatorship, but because that has always been the WEF’s intent. The globalist argues that governments cannot be trusted to hold a monopoly on the digital wellspring and that someone needs to step in to regulate data; but “who would do this?”, he asks.
He already knows the answer. The UN, a globalist edifice, has consistently said it should be the governing body that takes control of AI and data regulation through UNESCO. That is to say, Harari is playing coy, he knows that the people who will step in to control the data are people just like him.
At no point in Harari’s speech does he suggest that that any of these developments should be obstructed or stopped. At no point does he offer the idea that the digitization of humanity is wrong and that there are other better ways of living. He actually mocks the concept of “going back” to old ways; only the future and the Tabula Rasa (blank slate) hold promise for the globalists, everything else is an impediment to their designs.
But here’s the thing, what the globalists are trying to accomplish is a fantasy. People are not algorithms, despite how much Harari would like them to be. People have habits, yes, but they are also unpredictable and are prone to sudden awakenings and epiphanies in the moment of crisis.
Psychopaths tend to be robotic people, acting impulsively but also very predictably. They lack imagination, intuition and foresight, and so it’s not surprising that organizations of psychopaths like the WEF would place such an obsessive value on AI, algorithms and a cold technocratic evolution. They don’t view their data Shangri-La as humanity’s future; they see it as THEIR future – The future of the non-humans, or the anti-humans as it were.
Who will produce all the goods, services and necessities required in this brave new world? Well, all of us peons, of course. Sure, the globalists will offer grand promises of a robot driven production economy in which people no longer need to engage in menial labor, but this will be another lie. They’ll still need people to plant the crops, maintain infrastructure, take care of manufacturing, do their fighting for them, etc., they’ll just need less of us.
At bottom, an economy built on data is an economy dependent on illusion.
Data is vaporous and oftentimes meaningless because it is subject to the biases of the interpreter. Algorithms can also be programmed to the biases of the engineers. There is nothing inherently objective about data – it is all dependent on the intentions of the people analyzing it.
For example, to use Harari’s anecdote of an algorithm that “knows you are gay” before you do; any twisted group of people could simply write code for an algorithm that tells the majority of easily manipulated kids that they are gay, even when they are not. And, if you are gullible enough to believe the algorithm is infallible, then you could be led to believe that numerous falsehoods are true and be convinced to behave against your nature. You have allowed a biased digital phantom to dictate your identity, and have made yourself “hackable.”
In the meantime, the elitists entertain delusions of surpassing their mortal limitations by “hacking” the human body, as well as reading the minds of the masses and predicting the future based on data trends. This is an obsession which ignores the unpredictable wages of the human soul, that very element of conscience and of imagination which psychopaths lack. It’s something that cannot be hacked.
The legitimacy of the data based system and the hacking of humanity that the WEF aspires to is less important than what the masses can be convinced of. If the average person can be persuaded to implant their cell phone in their skull in the near future, then yes, humanity might become hackable in a rudimentary way.
The algorithms then supplant conscience, empathy and principles. And, without these things all morality becomes relative by default. Evil becomes good, and good becomes evil.
By the same token, if humanity can be persuaded to set down their cell phones and live a less tech focused life, then the digital empire of the globalists comes crashing down quite easily. There is no system the elites can impose that would make their digital consciousness a reality without the consent of the public at large.
Without a vast global framework in which people willingly embrace the algorithms rather than their own experience and intuitions, the globalist religion of total centralization dies. The first step is to accept that the conspiracy does indeed exist. The second step is to accept that the conspiracy is malicious and destructive. The third step is to refuse to comply, by whatever means necessary.
* * *
If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch. Learn more about it HERE.
