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Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Confirmed Dead In Helicopter Crash

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Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Confirmed Dead In Helicopter Crash

Update(0117ET): Iranian media has confirmed the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, 63, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash on the way back from an official visit to Azerbaijan earlier Sunday.

Reuters also confirmed Raisi’s death.

“President Raisi, the foreign minister and all the passengers in the helicopter were killed in the crash,” a senior official told the outlet on condition of anonymity.

*  *  *

Summary: 

  • Iran’s state television has confirmed the death of President Ebrahim Raisi

  • An Iranian official tells Reuters: “President Raisi’s helicopter was completely burned in the crash… unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead.”

  • The helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the foreign minister, and other officials went down in a remote northern region on the way back from an official visit to Azerbaijan earlier Sunday.

  • It was initially described as a “hard landing” but later was widely acknowledged as a “crash” – and as the hours pass the situation looks more grim.

  • Search and rescue has taken hours to reach the crash site, but little is known of the progress, amid bad weather conditions.

  • Foreign Ministry: “Despite adverse weather and environmental conditions, efforts by rescue teams to reach the accident site continue earnestly and with hope.”

  • Iranian population in state of ‘uncertainty’ as Supreme Leader asks for prayers for Raisi and the missing officials while assuring stability within government leadership.

  • Various countries have sent search and rescue help, including Russia and Turkey. Iran requested a night vision search and rescue helicopter from Turkey, according to Turkish disaster management agency AFAD.

  • Gulf countries express concern over crash, offer help in search.

  • ‘We hope for good news’ Iranian official tells Al Jazeera.

  • Iranian official told state TV that contact was made with one of the passengers and one of the crew members of the president’s helicopter on several occasions.

  • Press TV in follow-up cites an IRGC commander to say “Reports about contacts made by President’s companions after crash not factual.”

  • Conflicting reports: “Rescue crews haven’t yet located the crash site of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi,” the head of Iran’s Red Crescent Society, Pir-Hossein Koulivand, told Iranian state TV IRINN.

  • Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander-in-chief Hossein Salami has arrived at the general area of the crash

  • “We’re searching the area inch by inch, but the weather is very cold, foggy, and rainy. The rainfall is gradually turning into snowfall,” said the commander of the Iranian Army’s northwestern headquarters.

  • Heavy military presence reported in the capital of Tehran.

  • Thousands of Iranians pray for Raisi’s safe return after crash, but there are reports of others setting off fireworks.

  • Raisi had been in an aging Bell helicopter, with some reports saying it was over 40 years old.

  • US congressman gloats over Raisi crash: “Good riddance. Raisi was a murderous human rights abuser before and during his Presidency,” Rep Mike Waltz (R) wrote in a social media post.

  • Online speculation rampant over whether Israel or foreign intelligence could have been involved in a covert plot.

  • White House has been quiet but says it’s aware of the developing situation; President Biden was given a briefing. 

Update(2325ET): What’s looking like initial confirmation of President Raisi’s death is emerging, though there has still not been an official statement from Iran’s top leadership:

Iran’s state television says there is “no sign” of life among passengers of the helicopter which was carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and other officials.

“Upon finding the helicopter, there was no sign of the helicopter passengers being alive as of yet,” state TV reports.

An Iranian official tells Reuters: “President Raisi’s helicopter was completely burned in the crash… unfortunately, all passengers are feared dead.”

Some initial photos of the area where the helicopter went down have emerged, now some 15 hours after the crash was first reported.

Map via Al Jazeera

* * *

Below: video showing the Bell helicopter which was transporting the president. It is said to be decades old, also as Iran’s aviation sector has languished under many years of US-led sanctions…

Update(1420ET): We are getting closer to learning the fate of Iran’s President Raisi and his foreign minister and other officials aboard the helicopter which went down hours ago:

  • Iran’s president Raisi’s crashed helicopter has been found by search teams – State TV — Reuters
  • Iranian official tells State TV: Contacts have been made with one of the passengers and one of the crew members of the president’s helicopter on several occasions — Reuters

The Red Crescent organization is denying that the crash site has been found, amid contradictory and early reporting. So far Iranian officials are signaling that the president is alive, but the situation remains uncertain and fluid, following widespread speculation that he could be deceased. 

Iranian officials are seeking to assure the nation and the world that continuity of decision-making and government is stable and assured, amid reports of a heavy military presence on the streets of the capital Tehran.

“The Iranian president’s helicopter has been found” and contact has been made with the crew and “one of the passengers on board”. At this point it is night time, amid bad weather…

* * *

Update(1315ET): Several hours into a massive search and rescue operation and things are not looking good as Iranian officials have been issuing ‘thoughts and prayers’ statements amid reports that severe fog and bad weather have prevented a proper aerial search for the downed helicopter of President Raisi and those with him. Deep uncertainty looms as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was reported as holding an emergency meeting with the National Security Council in Tehran (follow-up reports from state sources have downplayed or contracted this, however). The Iranian population is on edge as speculation grows that the president is feared dead:

“Nobody knows what exactly has happened and how the president and other local officials, because the situation is quite complicated,” he told Al Jazeera.

“As time goes on, hopes are decreasing because the conditions are getting much worse and it’s getting darker,” Aslani, a senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, noted.

“What is being felt here in Tehran [Iran’s capital] is mostly that feeling of uncertainty.”

The first official statement of Iran’s Supreme Leader:

At this moment, the president and his foreign minister, along with other officials are officially missing in a mountainous, forested area near the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Iran has mobilized the armed forces, including the IRGC, amid unconfirmed reports that even some of the search and rescue units are also possibly missing…

Iran’s Khamenei reassures Iranians that country’s management will not be affected by the incident – IRNA — Reuters

Initial footage from the far northern border region with Azerbaijan shows fog so thick that it’s hard to see just dozens of meters ahead.

One independent regional monitor has said: “This is hardly a surprise. First responders and rescue crews are being dispatched en-masse without proper briefing/delegation of command.”

More footage showing a difficult terrain and weather situation. Visibility at a distance is near zero…

Speculation that Raisi could be dead has begun to hit foreign media, including in Israel:

Iran official: Lives of president, FM ‘at risk’ after crash landing in wooded area

There has also been speculation of possible foreign interference as the search and rescue extends into hours, involving a massive military and security response, with drones and other deployed assets over the region…

STATEMENT FROM PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN:

“Today, after a friendly meeting with the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, the news of the emergency landing of the helicopter carrying the Iranian high delegation caused great concern. Our prayers to Almighty God are with President Ebrahim Raisi and his accompanying delegation. As a neighbor, friend and brother country, the Republic of Azerbaijan is ready to provide all kinds of support.”

The official Instagram of the Iranian president is calling on all citizens to pray for his safety.

State media also appears to be fearing the worst, airing images like the following showing Raisi on a prior religious pilgrimage:

President Biden has been briefed, the White House said in a statement:

US President Joe Biden was briefed on the helicopter crash involving Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, according to the White House.

Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, accompanying Biden aboard Air Force One on Sunday, offered no other details.

* * *

There are breaking reports that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has been in a helicopter crash in a remote northern area of the country and that rescuers are trying to reach him and his crew. 

State media is currently calling it a “hard landing” – suggesting that the president is alive and well, however no other details on the precise nature of the helicopter incident have been revealed. According to the NYT, 16 rescue teams have been dispatched to locate the helicopter, however inclement weather are hampering the effort, according to the reports. The teams have failed to locate the crash after nearly five hours. According to the latest via Al Jazeera citing state media:

  • Adverse weather conditions, including heavy fog, are hampering rescue efforts and the helicopter is still missing.
  • Iran’s Fars News Agency calls on Iranians to pray for President Raisi.

What is known is that Raisi’s helicopter went down while in the country’s East Azerbaijan province and that it happened near the border city of Jolfa, and up to three helicopters total made up the air convoy at the time.

“Given the complexities of the region, connection has been difficult, and we are hoping that the rescue teams reach the helicopter and can give us more information,” said Iran’s interior minister, Ahmad Vahidi on state television.

State-run IRNA news agency indicated that among the officials aboard the aircraft included Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.

The Associated Press has quoted at least one Iranian official to say it was a “crash” and that there’s an urgent rescue mission currently underway in a forested area:

One local government official used the word “crash” to describe the incident, but he acknowledged to an Iranian newspaper that he had yet to reach the site himself.

Rescuers were attempting to reach the site, state TV said, but had been hampered by poor weather conditions. There had been heavy rain and fog reported with some wind. IRNA called the area a “forest.”

It appears Raisi was traveling in connection with a trip to Azerbaijan earlier in the day, where he had overseen the inauguration of a dam with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev this morning. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency has stated on X Sunday:

“Some of the president’s companions on this helicopter were able to communicate with Central Headquarters, raising hopes that the incident could have ended without casualties.”

Thus far initial reports indicate that Raisi has survived the incident, but again the ‘hard landing’ appears to be significant – and possibly far worse – than what state media is letting on.

The fact that a rescue team has yet to even reach the location of the downed helicopter means this could be a potential casualty situation involving top officials.

Almost immediately, a number of online commenters raised the question of potential foreign involvement… “Israel?” some asked. However, it’s also well understood that helicopters become more prone to incidents in foggy or inclement weather, and over mountainous difficult terrain. Iran’s aviation industry has also long languished under Washington-led sanctions.

developing…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 05/20/2024 – 01:17

Is America Losing?

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Is America Losing?

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Below, we soberly assess the lessons of history and math against the current realities of a debt-defined America to ask and answer a painful yet critical question: Is America losing?

The End of History and the Last Man

In 1992, while I was still an undergrad with a seemingly endless optimism in life in general and the American Dream in particular, the American political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, published a much-discussed book entitled, The End of History and the Last Man.

Released in the wake of the wall coming down in Berlin and a backdrop of continually low rates and rising US markets, this best-selling and optimistic work captured the Western mindset with obvious pride.

With its central theme (supported by an overt Hegelian and dialectal framework) of capitalism and liberal democracy’s penultimate and victorious evolution (Aufhebung moment) beyond the Soviet dark ages of a debt-soaked and centralization/autocratic communism, the famous book made headline sense in this Zeitgeist of American exceptionalism.

But even then, amidst all the evidence of Soviet failures (from extended wars, currency destruction, unpayable debts and a clearly dishonest media and police-state leadership), my already history-conscious (and fancy-school) mind could not help but wonder out loud if this book’s optimistic conclusion of the West’s ideological and evolutional end-game was not otherwise a bit, well: naïve.

Had the West truly reached a victorious “end of history” moment?

Pride & An Insult to History?

In fact, and as anyone who truly understands history should know then as now, history is replete with rhyming turning points, but never a victorious and eternal “end-game.”

Stated more simply, the famous book, which made so much sense at that particular moment in time, seemed to me even in 1992 as a classic example of “hubris comes before the fall.”

In other words, it may have been a bit too soon to declare victory for liberal democracy and capitalism, as these fine systems require fine leadership and even finer principles to survive history’s forward flow.

Today’s History…

Fast-forward many decades (grey hairs, advanced degrees and sore muscles) later, and it would seem that my young skepticism (and historical respect) was well-placed.

The evidence around us now suggests that the “victorious” capitalism Fukuyama boasted of in 1992 died long ago, replaced in the interim years by obvious and mathematically-corroborated examples of unprecedented wealth inequality and modern feudalism.

Furthermore, if one were to contrast the principles of America’s founding fathers as evidenced by their first 10 Amendments to the US Constitution (remember our Bill of Rights?) to the current and obvious destruction of the same in what is now a far more centralized, post-9-11 “Patriot Act” USA, the evidence of democracy’s crumbling façade is literally all around us.

In other words, perhaps Fukuyama got a little too ahead of himself.

Or more to the point, perhaps he was dead wrong about the final “victory” of genuine US capitalism and an actual, living/breathing liberal democracy?

Is the USA the Old USSR?

In fact, and with a humble nod to modesty, blunt-speak, current events, simple math and almost tragic irony, the actual evidence of history since 1992 suggests that today’s Divided States of America (DSA) (and Pravda-like media) appears to look far more like the defeated USSR than the victor presented by Mr. Fukuyama…

Such dramatic statements, of course, mean nothing without facts, and we all deserve a careful use of the same if we seek to replace emotion with data and hence see, argue and prepare ourselves politically and financially with more clarity.

Facts Are Stubborn Things

Toward this end, I am once again grateful for the facts and figures which Luke Gromen provides in supporting the otherwise “sensational” conclusion that America may have won the “cold battle” with the USSR, but it is now losing a “cold war” with the Russians and Chinese.

Really?

C’mon.

Really?

Again, let’s look at the facts. Let’s look at the numbers. Let’s look at current events, and let’s look at history, which is anything but at an “end.”

For those whose respect for history goes beyond a twitter-level attention span or the assistance of mainstream media Ken and Barbies (from CNN to The View), none of whom understand anything of history, you will recall that Regan’s successful war against the USSR was won by bankrupting the Soviets.

But as Gromen so eloquently reminds us, “nobody seems to notice that is EXACTLY what the Russians and Chinese are doing to us now.”

This is not fable but fact, and I warned of this in How the West was Lost the moment the US weaponized the USD in 2022. This desperately myopic (i.e., stupid) policy gave a very patient and history-savvy Russia and China just the opportunity they have been waiting for to turn the tables on the DSA.

History’s Fatal Debt Trap Lesson

As I also recently wrote, with the insights of both Niel Ferguson and Luke Gromen, you know (and history confirms) a nation (or empire) is ALWAYS doomed the moment its debt expenses (in interest terms alone) exceed its defense spending.

And as of this writing, the DSA’s gross interest is 40% higher than its military spending.

Nor are we, the Russians, the Chinese or even a select minority of informed Americans alone in this knowledge of the DSA’s fatal debt trap.

No Hiding the Obvious

The current turning point in American debt is now increasingly and more globally understood in what Ben Hunt calls “the Common Knowledge Game.”

Stated more simply, and as evidenced by the now undeniable move away from the US IOU and USD by an ever-increasing (and ever de-Dollarizing) BRICS+ membership roster, the world is catching on to the blunt fact that the American empire (of citizen lions led by political donkeys) is spending fatally more than it earns.

What is far more sickening, however, is that Uncle Sam is then paying its IOUs with debased Dollars literally mouse-clicked into existence at the not-so “federal” and not-so “reserved” Federal Reserve.

This desperate reality, and completely fantasy-based monetary “solution,” has resulted in an empirically bankrupt nation who quantifiably spends more on entitlements (cashed out by 2030), sovereign IOUs and warfare than it does on transportation, agriculture, veteran benefits and citizen education (our apologies to Thomas Jefferson).

See for yourself:

Returning from simple math to otherwise forgotten (or now increasingly “cancelled) history, it becomes harder to deny Gromen’s observation “that the US appears to be reprising the role of the USSR this time, with a heavy debt load, uncompetitive and hollowed-out industrial base, reliant on a Cold War adversary for imported manufactured goods, and needing ever-higher oil prices in order to keep its oil production from falling.”

Democracy’s Suicide?

In other words, and in the many years since Fukuyama declared victory in 1992, the interim sins/errors of increasingly suicidal (or grotesquely negligent/stupid) US military, financial and foreign policies have irrevocably placed the DSA into a defeated decline rather than victorious “End of History.”

This reality, of course, gives me no pleasure to share, as I was, am and will always remain a patriotic American—or at least patriotic to the ideals for which America originally stood.

But as I’ve said many times, today’s DSA is almost unrecognizable to the American I was when Fukuyama’s book of hubris was released over three decades ago.

As our second US President, John Adams, warned his wife Abigail: “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did commit suicide.”

Again, this is history, and it appears to be a history that Fukuyama misunderstood in 1992, when he apparently thought it had reached its happy “end.”

The Past Informs the Future

Looking forward, I/we must be equally capable of looking backward.

History has far more to teach us than the stump-speeches (or pathetic cue cards) of current political opportunists (puppets?) who, with very few exceptions, care far more about preserving their power (via coalitions, the legalized bribery of K-Street lobbyists, the promulgation of mis-information and the deliberate omission of mal-information) than serving their public.

The Sad History of Currency Debasement

History also warns/teaches that the leadership of all debt-soaked and failing regimes will buy time saving their “systems” (and covering their @$$’s) by debasing their currencies to monetize their debts.

Folks, this is true throughout history, and WITHOUT EXCEPTION.

Sadly, the DSA and its hitherto “exceptionalism” is no exception to this otherwise ignored historical lesson.

Toward this end, and as Egon and I have argued for years, the DSA will thus pretend to “fight inflation” while simultaneously seeking inflation, as all debt-strapped (and hence failed) regimes need inflation rates to exceed interest rates (as measured by the yield on the US10Y UST) in what the fancy lads call “negative real rates.”

The Sad History of Dishonesty

Inflation, however, is not only politically embarrassing, but stone-cold proof of failed monetary and fiscal leadership.

To get around this embarrassment, politicos from the Fed and the White House to the so-called House of Representatives (and the Don-Lemonish/Chris Quomo/ 1st Amendment-insulting/hit-driven legacy media which supports them) will do what most children do when faced with making an error, that is: Lie.

And in this case: Lie about inflation data.

Of course, a nation that lies to its people is not best suited for leading its people.

As Hemingway warned, and as I often repeat, those at fault will point the fingers of blame to others (from Eastern bad guys, and man-made viruses to political fear campaigns on everything from global warming, white nationalism or green men from Mars); or worse, leaders will distract their constituents in perpetual wars.

Sound familiar?

In the interim, those “people” will continually and increasingly suffer from the sins of their childish leadership under the crippling yet invisible tax of the debased purchasing power of their so-called “money.”

This too, is nothing new to those who track history…

Golden Solutions?

Gold, of course, cannot and will not solve for all of the myriad and “human, all too human” failures of national leadership and the monetary, social and centralized disfunctions which ALWAYS follow in the wake of too much debt.

But as history also confirms (and equally without exception), each of us can at least protect the purchasing power of our wealth by measuring that wealth in ounces and grams rather than openly dying paper/fiat money.

This is not a biased argument. This is not a “gold bug” argument.

It is far more simply an historical argument, which further explains why governments don’t want you to understand the history of money nor the history of gold.

In fact, even Fukuyama’s now embarrassing book ignores this simple lesson of gold lasting and paper money dying, which only adds to my opening observation that history never “ends” it simply teaches and protects the informed.

The same is true of physical gold.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 23:55

Visualizing America’s Average Retirement Savings, By Age

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Visualizing America’s Average Retirement Savings, By Age

Painting a concerning picture, the median retirement savings for Americans stands at a mere $87,000, a figure far lower than what is needed for a comfortable nest egg.

This savings gap—the amount people have actually saved versus what they believe is needed for retirement—is significantly rising. In fact, a recent survey from Northwestern Mutual reveals that $1.46 million is the ideal savings target for retirement, up from $1.27 million last year.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, shows the retirement savings that Americans currently hold, based on data from the Federal Reserve’s 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances.

Savings for Retirement Fall Short

Below, we show the average and median retirement savings in the U.S. by age group:

For people aged 35 and under, the median savings were $18,880, while this amount increased to $200,000 for those aged 65 to 74.

At current rates, this means that older generations are living on a mere $10,000 per year in retirement based on these savings alone. Given this shortfall, Americans will need to increasingly rely on Social Security benefits to make ends meet. In fact, it’s estimated that state and federal governments will need $1.4 trillion for public assistance costs by 2040.

One reason behind declining retirement savings is the steep drop in employment-sponsored pension plans over the last several decades. As of 2022, there was $37.8 trillion held in U.S. pension plans and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). Of these, employment-sponsored plans comprised a substantial 70% share of these assets.

However, for many Americans without employer-sponsored plans, saving for retirement has become an increasingly uphill battle. In fact, a separate survey shows that just 58% of Americans aged 55 to 64 have retirement accounts, underscoring the growing challenges faced in preparing for retirement.

Among the most common retirement planning mistakes are underestimating the impact of inflation, one’s life expectancy, and healthcare costs. To combat this problem, 12 states have adopted automated retirement savings accounts for private employees. These programs, impacting up to 56 million people, enroll employees automatically with the choice to opt out, to help encourage Americans to save for the future.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 23:20

Morgan Stanley On Japan In Rome

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Morgan Stanley On Japan In Rome

By Seth Carpenter, Managing Director and Chief Global Economist at Morgan Stanley, and Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley

Japan in Rome

Last month at our annual Fixed Income CIO conference, one of the liveliest sessions was on Japan’s reflation. The BoJ ending negative rates and normalizing policy for the first time in eight years marked the end of decades of a deflationary equilibrium. Nominal GDP growth hit 5.7%Y in 2023, and our Japan team forecasts that Japan’s nominal GDP growth will remain above 3%Y across our forecast horizon. Nominal growth tends to translate into earnings, and so it is no surprise that our equity strategy team remains bullish, with a target for the TOPIX of 2,800.

Our baseline forecast is that the BoJ hikes rates in July this year, a view that has been reinforced by recent communications from Governor Ueda. Because we think inflation will stabilize and drift lower, we look for only one more hike after that, in 1Q25. We think the risks are to the upside for policy, if inflation doesn’t drift down the way we expect.

The falling value of the yen prompted intense market focus and ultimately intervention by the MoF. Since the exchange rate directly affects import prices (after all, 90% of energy is imported in Japan), the risks to inflation cannot be ignored when the currency moves. Our baseline view is that the yen will appreciate through the end of this year and into next year, partly based on our view that the Fed will cut rates by 75bp this year and 100bp next year. If we are wrong, and the yen continues to weaken, further intervention seems plausible and would also increase the risks of more hikes by the BoJ than in our baseline forecast.

Of course, the exchange rate is only one factor. Governor Ueda also emphasized a so-called “second force” driving inflation, the virtuous cycle between wages and prices. We remain convinced that the cycle is intact, even if the empirical outcome remains a question. We are in the middle of a fundamental shift in equilibria. The labor market is tight and tightening; the spring wage negotiations resulted in a substantial 5.2% rise, including a base wage increase of 3.6%. Domestic and foreign demand remain strong.

The strong macro backdrop and the BoJ’s shift to a hiking campaign have coincided with a sell-off in sovereign curves around the world. The 10-year JGB almost touched 1% in November, and after retracing it is now looking to test similar highs. Our baseline is that the yield returns to 1% by the end of this year. However, our bear case has a more notable sell-off, possibly to as high as 1.25%, by year-end, if inflation dynamics point to more persistence, building in a steeper curve along with more rate hikes.

While the forecast may not be crystal clear – forecasting is hard, as the saying goes, especially about the future – that fact that Japan is undergoing a fundamental shift should now be clear. Before Covid, it would have strained credulity to say that Japan would be a focus of macro investors around the world. The fact that it was one of the most heated discussions at our conference in Rome shows just how much the world has changed. When in Rome, do as the Romans do.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 22:45

Comparing New And Current US Tariffs On Chinese Imports

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Comparing New And Current US Tariffs On Chinese Imports

This week, the U.S. introduced a new series of tariff increases on Chinese imports, amounting to over $18 billion worth of goods.

In the announcement, President Biden said they are aiming to “counter China’s unfair trade practices” by targeting specific sectors where the U.S. is boosting domestic production.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, shows the new and current U.S. tariff rates set on a variety of Chinese imports.

Tariff rates and implementation years for the new rates come from The White House’s May 14 press release announcing the new tariff rate increases. Implementation years for the current rates comes from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and United States International Trade Commission (USITC).

Tariff Raises on China Hit EV and Medical Industries

Below, we show the current and new tariff rates, as well as the implementation years for both, for a range of Chinese imports, as of May 14, 2024.

†Current rate for steel and aluminium products and personal protective equipment ranges from 0 to 7.5%.

*Tariffs implemented in 2019 started at 15% and were reduced to 7.5% in January 2020

The U.S. directed many of its new tariff increases on the Chinese EV industry, targeting imports such as semiconductors, lithium-ion batteries, and other battery parts.

Notably, tariffs on electric vehicles from China were bumped to 100% and new tariffs on certain critical minerals, which are essential for manufacturing battery parts and semiconductors, were introduced.

Medical-related products, such as medical and surgical gloves and certain personal protective equipment like face masks were also impacted by the new tariff increases. Some of these items were previously granted exclusions from Section 301 tariffs due to COVID-19.

Syringes and needles, which were previously not subjected to any tariffs, were also hit with a new 50% tariff.

Section 301 Tariffs Still Going Strong

Tariffs are taxes imposed by a country on imported goods, increasing their price to protect domestic industries, regulate trade, or generate revenue for the government.

These new tariff actions were introduced under Section 301, a provision that allows the U.S. government to investigate and respond to unfair trade practices by foreign countries.

Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods were first introduced by former President Donald Trump in 2018, which sparked retaliatory tariffs on China and set off a years-long trade war between the two countries.

Currently, Section 301 tariffs apply to over $300 billion worth of Chinese imports.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 22:10

Unpacking Ray Dalio’s Alarmist Prediction Of Civil War

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Unpacking Ray Dalio’s Alarmist Prediction Of Civil War

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

The other day, Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, told The Financial Times that he sees the risk of a second American civil war as “growing” and places the odds of such a war at “35-40 percent.” According to FT, Dalio’s “research” has led him to conclude that “we are now on the brink,” although we “don’t yet know if we will cross over into much more turbulent times.”

On the one hand, it’s important to remember that Dalio is nearly universally known as a world-class crank. He’s made a lot of money in the markets and has long been considered an astute investor, but he has also long been considered an odd duck, to put it gently. Additionally, the idea that this proclamation and setting of odds are based on “research” is silly. There are no variables one can examine and analyze and then use to calculate an objective estimate of a civil war’s occurrence. To pretend otherwise is… well… perfectly Dalio-esque.

On the other hand, Dalio is hardly alone in his belief that tough times are imminent. Virtually the entirety of the ruling class seems to believe that the zeitgeist of the moment is characterized by anger, hatred, and the expectation of confrontation between political adversaries. Hollywood is busy making movies about a potential Civil War. Political magazines are warning that totalitarianism looms just over the electoral horizon. And even the President of the United States is releasing videos that sound more like pre-fight smack talk than political posturing. In short, Ray Dalio is hardly the first major public figure to express his fear/hope that the nation is “on the brink.”

Ironically, the part of this story Dalio and his fellow elites are missing is that in which they’re the cause of the turmoil that currently plagues the United States, or, at the very least, are exacerbating that turmoil and aggravating the people’s frustrations.

Consider, for example, the description Dalio gives of one of the primary causes of this possible civil war:

This election would be a test of ‘can democracy work well? Will there be an acceptance of the rules and an ability to work well under those rules?’ he said.

[Republican candidate Donald] Trump will follow more rightist, nationalistic, isolationist, protectionist, non-regulatory policies — and more aggressive policies to fight enemies internally and externally, including political enemies. [President Joe] Biden, and even more so the Democratic party without Biden, will be more the opposite….

Ah, I see. It’s all Donald Trump’s fault. Strangely, Dalio doesn’t address the almost inarguable fact that Donald Trump is a symptom of this nation’s political dysfunction rather than the cause of it. Whatever one thinks of Trump—good, bad, indifferent—he and his political movement did not emerge fully formed, as if Athena springing forth from the forehead of Zeus. They were the result of decades of political malpractice by both parties, decades of betrayal and decades of self-dealing.

Likewise, Donald Trump remains popular today because both parties, as a whole, remain indifferent to the plight of the country class and are concerned almost exclusively with the needs and wants of Washington and its allies. Billionaire Ray Dalio may think that the people are revolting, but that is, in large part, the fault of the Washington uni-party and its disregard for the people’s interests.

Dalio also describes the form that the civil war he so fears might take: “The civil war Dalio imagines was not necessarily one in which people ‘grab guns and start shooting’, although such a scenario was possible, he said.” Rather, the civil war Dalio envisions would involve “people mov[ing] to different states that are more aligned with what they want and they don’t follow the decisions of federal authorities of the opposite political persuasion.”

To be clear, I don’t think that consistently disregarding the actions and decisions of the federal government is something that we, as a nation, should encourage, much less tolerate. At the same time, there’s a term for what Dalio describes. It’s called “federalism,” and it was precisely what the Founding Fathers had in mind almost 250 years ago.

It is worth remembering here that when the Founders debated the Constitution, two primary factions fought over the particulars. The Federalists—James Madsion, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay, in particular—sat on one side of the question, while the anti-federalists—Patrick Henry, James Monroe, Samuel Adams, George Mason, and a host of others—sat on the other. The anti-federalists were opposed to the Constitution not because they disapproved of its weak federal government and demanded something stronger, something more like what we have today, but because they disapproved of a federal government at all. In other words, the vision Dalio now derides and implies is the precursor to civil war was, in fact, the most radically centralized of the forms of government considered by the Founders.

Dalio’s problem with such a vision of government is undoubtedly closely akin to the problem that much of the ruling class today has with that vision: he wants the people to think and behave as he wants them to, in alignment with his “values.” He finds their insistence on thinking for themselves and behaving accordingly irritating and inefficient.

Roughly two years ago, Victor Davis Hanson penned an essay accusing factions of “the left” of engaging in what he called “civil war porn.” Some on the left fantasized, he argued, about how the country’s majority white right-wing rabble were intent on harming minorities, destroying democracy, and engaging in violence against their enemies. Such fantasies gave them the opportunity to engage in moral grandstanding. They saw themselves as the heroes of the story, noble warriors who would sacrifice everything to save all that is right and good in the world.

Today, that “civil war porn” is the purview of much of the ruling class, people like Ray Dalio, who cosplay as the self-righteously indignant and “rational” grown-ups in the room. They warn that the evil ones, the naughty children, are plotting against the nation, planning a fascist takeover of the government or even secession from the Union.

Again, the irony is that in doing so, in prattling on about the risks that the great unwashed masses pose to “Our Democracy™,” the Ray Dalios of the world make it all the more likely.

Every time they open their mouths on the subject, they make the idea of a political separation that would liberate the masses from those who deride and hate them sound far more agreeable.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 21:35

These Are The 10 US States With The Lowest Real GDP Growth

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These Are The 10 US States With The Lowest Real GDP Growth

While the U.S. economy defied expectations in 2023, posting 2.5% in real GDP growth, several states lagged behind.

Last year, oil-producing states led the pack in terms of real GDP growth across America, while the lowest growth was seen in states that were more sensitive to the impact of high interest rates, particularly due to slowdowns in the manufacturing and finance sectors.

In the following graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte shows the 10 states with the least robust real GDP growth in 2023, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Weakest State Economies in 2023

Below, we show the states with the slowest economic activity in inflation-adjusted terms, using chained 2017 dollars:

Delaware witnessed the slowest growth in the country, with real GDP growth of -1.2% over the year as a sluggish finance and insurance sector dampened the state’s economy.

Like Delaware, the Midwestern state of Wisconsin also experienced declines across the finance and insurance sector, in addition to steep drops in the agriculture and manufacturing industries.

America’s third-biggest economy, New York, grew just 0.7% in 2023, falling far below the U.S. average. High interest rates took a toll on key sectors, with notable slowdowns in the construction and manufacturing sectors. In addition, falling home prices and a weaker job market contributed to slower economic growth.

Meanwhile, Georgia experienced the fifth-lowest real GDP growth rate. In March 2024, Rivian paused plans to build a $5 billion EV factory in Georgia, which was set to be one of the biggest economic development initiatives in the state in history.

These delays are likely to exacerbate setbacks for the state, however, both Kia and Hyundai have made significant investments in the EV industry, which could help boost Georgia’s manufacturing sector looking ahead.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 21:00

A Global Censorship Prison Built By The Women Of The CIA

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A Global Censorship Prison Built By The Women Of The CIA

Authored by Elizabeth Nickson via ‘Welcome to Absurdistan’ substack,

The polite world was fascinated last month when long-time NPR editor Uri Berliner confessed to the Stalinist suicide pact the public broadcaster, like all public broadcasters, seems to be on. Formerly it was a place of differing views, he claimed, but now it has sold as truth some genuine falsehoods like, for instance, the Russia hoax, after which it covered up the Hunter Biden laptop. And let’s not forget our censor-like behaviour regarding Covid and the vaccine. NPR bleated that they were still diverse in political opinion, but researchers found that all 87 reporters at NPR were Democrats. Berliner was immediately put on leave and a few days later resigned, no doubt under pressure.

Even more interesting was the reveal of the genesis of NPR’s new CEO, Katherine Maher, a 41-year-old with a distinctly odd CV. Maher had put in stints at a CIA cutout, the National Democratic Institute, and trotted onto the World Bank, UNICEF, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Center for Technology and Democracy, the Digital Public Library of America, and finally the famous disinfo site Wikipedia. That same week, Tunisia accused her of working for the CIA during the so-called Arab Spring. And, of course, she is a WEF young global leader.

She was marched out for a talk at the Carnegie Endowment where she was prayerfully interviewed and spouted mediatized language so anodyne, so meaningless, yet so filled with nods to her base the AWFULS (affluent white female urban liberals) one was amazed that she was able to get away with it. There was no acknowledgement that the criticism by this award-winning reporter/editor/producer, who had spent his life at NPR had any merit whatsoever, and in fact that he was wrong on every count. That this was a flagrant lie didn’t even ruffle her artfully disarranged short blonde hair.

Christopher Rufo did an intensive investigation of her career in City Journal. It is an instructive read and illustrative of a lot of peculiar yet stellar careers of American women. Working for Big Daddy is apparently something these ghastly creatures value. I strongly suggest reading Rufo’s piece linked here. It’s a riot of spooky confluences.

Intelligence has been embedded in media forever and a day. During my time at Time Magazine in London, the bureau chief, deputy bureau chief and no doubt the “war and diplomacy” correspondent all filed to Langley and each of them cruised social London ceaselessly for information. Tucker Carlson asserted on his interview with Aaron Rogers this week that intelligence operatives were laced through DC media and in fact, Mr. Watergate, Bob Woodward himself, had been naval intelligence a scant year before he cropped up at the Washington Post as ‘an intrepid fighter for the truth and freedom no matter where it led.’  Watergate, of course, was yet another operation to bring down another inconvenient President; at this juncture, unless you are being puppeted by the CIA, you don’t get to stay in power. Refuse and bang bang or end up in court on insultingly stupid charges. As Carlson pointed out, all congressmen and senators are terrified by the security state, even and especially the ones on the intelligence committee who are supposed to be controlling them. They can install child porn on your laptop and you don’t even know it’s there until you are raided, said Carlson. The security state is that unethical, that power mad.

Now, it’s global. And feminine. Where is Norman Mailer when you need him?

At the same time, at the same time, Freddie Sayers, the editor-in-chief of Unherd, testified in Parliament on the Global Disinformation Index which had choked Unherd’s ability to grow. Unherd had hired three advertising firms who were, one after the other, unable to place ads. The third sourced the problem to the Index, which had deemed his interviews with journalist Katherine Stock about the problems faced by young people transitioning their sex, had made him persona non grata for all advertising agencies across the world. Eerily, that same week, Katherine Stock was awarded a high honorable mention in the National Press Awards for her work.

Here is Clare Melford, the fetching chief of the Global Disinformation Index, a woman seemingly bent on sterilizing confused children, Yet another non-profit authoritarian working for a mysterious Big Daddy. Who the hell trained her?

On Tuesday this week, out pops Europe’s headmistress, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Politico.eu, complaining about “Russia” and “right-wingers” sowing distrust of Europe’s election processes. She is, she says, launching a new war on Disinformation. Most importantly, no more reporting on migrant assaults. This seems to be their new crusade. Please note the halo over her Christed head. Honestly, they are shameless, vain, silly creatures with limited bandwidth. Other than obedience to some grim reaper.

Said Politico:

“She promised to set up “a European Democracy Shield,” if reelected for a second term, to fight back against foreign meddling.

EU cybersecurity and disinformation officials expect a surge in online falsehoods in the 20 days prior to the European Parliament election June 6-9, when millions of Europeans elect new representatives. Officials fear that Russia is ramping up its influence operations to sow doubt about the integrity of elections in the West and to manipulate public opinion in its favor.”

By the way, madam, western election integrity has been thoroughly compromised by the men who tell you what to do. More than half of us think elections are stolen. More than half. That’s not disinformation, it’s math.

This week Michael Shellenberger, who is the acknowledged lead in the take-down of the global censorship complex, had a look at Julie Inman Grant, another American Barbie, now Australia’s “e-safety commissioner,” with ties to the WEF. Grant had demanded that X censor a migrant stabbing, and X refused. Grant, as Shellenberger describes, is the Zelig of internet history tinkering in the bowels of said internet until she burst onto the public stage as Australia’s chief censor, bent on building a global online safety network.

Working for Big Daddy is apparently something these ghastly creatures value.

At a recent government hearing, she announced, “We have powerful tools to regulate platforms with ISP blocking power, and can collect basic device information, account information, phone numbers and email addresses, so that our investigators can at least find a place to issue a warning.” Grant went on to say they could compel take-downs, fine perpetrators and fine content hosts.

The Daily Mail had a ball with Inman Grant, mocking her and pointing out that she was wasting taxpayer money on a game of whack-a-mole.

Nevertheless, Grant takes herself very very seriously and since she is accreting power at a massive clip, so must we.

Grant’s network of independent regulators is called the Global Online Safety Regulators Network. “We have Australia, France, Ireland, South Africa, Korea, the UK and Fiji so far, with others observing. Canada is coming along,” she preens, “and is about to create a National Safety Regulator.” Canada’s proposed censorship program is so draconian you can be jailed for something you posted online years ago. And the government proposing it is so unpopular, it will be lucky to hang onto 20 seats in the next election.

There are literally hundreds of these women. Why? Why?

At a meeting this year of the World Economic Forum, Věra Jourová, from the European Commission, outlined just how exciting she and her team found the tools she is being given. “We can,” she said, “influence in such a way the real life and the behavior of people!” She sighed with excitement after this sentence. Jourova was caught last September trying to spread yet another Russia hoax. You have only to hear censorship plans uttered in a central-European accent to really understand what is happening here.

As terrifying as this all seems, and it is terrifying, it is instructive to look at the ruination of the career of America’s chief censor, Renée DiResta. DiResta, as research head of the Stanford Internet Observatory, is now being sued for abuse of power and unethical behavior that violates the constitution. Spookily, DiResta soared from “new mom” to providing the intellectual under-pinnning for censorship, until she headed up the Stanford Internet Observatory during Covid, where she was instrumental in censoring vaccine and Covid “disinformation.” People thought her backstory contrived and in fact, Shellenberger found that she was, unmistakably another CIA trained censor of inconvenient information under the guise of “safety.”

At this point, every time you hear the word ‘safety”, it’s best to check your ammunition supply. Said Shellenberger:

As research director of Stanford Internet Observatory, DiResta was the key leader and spokesperson of both the 2021 “Virality Project,” against Covid vaccine “misinformation” and the 2020 “Election Integrity Project.”

Shellenberger goes on to look into DiResta’s work history and finds a lot of congruence with CIA operations.

But then I learned that DiResta had worked for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The journalist Matt Taibbi pointed me to the investigative research into the censorship industry by Mike Benz, a former State Department official in charge of cybersecurity. Benz had discovered a little-viewed video of her supervisor at the Stanford Internet Observatory, Alex Stamos, mentioning in an off-hand way that DiResta had previously “worked for the CIA.”

In her response to my criticism of her on Joe Rogan, DiResta acknowledged but then waved away her CIA connection. “My purported secret-agent double life was an undergraduate student fellowship at CIA, ending in 2004 — years prior to Twitter’s founding,” she wrote. “I’ve had no affiliation since.”

But DiResta’s acknowledgment of her connection to the CIA is significant, if only because she hid it for so long. DiResta’s LinkedIn includes her undergraduate education at Stony Brook University, graduating in 2004, and her job as a trader at Jane Street from October 2004 to May 2011, but does not mention her time at the CIA.

And, notably, the CIA describes its fellowships as covering precisely the issues in which DiResta is an expert. “As an Intelligence Analyst Intern for CIA, you will work on teams alongside full-time analysts, studying and evaluating information from all available sources—classified and unclassified—and then analyzing it to provide timely and objective assessments to customers such as the President, National Security Council, and other U.S. policymakers.”

At this juncture it is a race, as the intelligence community moves to shut down the revelations of its manipulations and machinations, and people injured by the vaccine and the flagrant abuse of election integrity move to fight them. It is instructive to note that DiResta, while apparently soaring to the heights of journalism at Wired, the New York Times, the Atlantic, selling her safety/censorhip program, cannot seem to get actual people to read or subscribe to her Substack. DiResta, like so many women in power now, are in reality, talentless cutouts for a hidden and malignant agenda.

An agenda that the people of the world roundly hate. I have just one final thing to saw to these truly dreadful human beings. My God is stronger than whatever demon or predator you obey. And as a woman, I am ashamed of each and every one of you. To use one of your awful phrases: Do Better.

*  *  *

There is a lot of work to do, please consider funding a very cheap annual subscription.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 20:25

America’s Competitors Think That The Window Of Opportunity Is Now Open To Divide The World

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America’s Competitors Think That The Window Of Opportunity Is Now Open To Divide The World

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“The United States still thinks in terms of the Cold War and is guided by the logic of bloc confrontation, putting the security of ‘narrow groups’ above regional security and stability, which creates a security threat for all countries in the region,” read the 7,000 word Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for the New Era in the Context of the 75th Anniversary of China-Russia Diplomatic Relations. Quite a mouthful.

“The US must abandon this behavior.”

The statement followed a two-day meeting between Putin and Xi in Beijing. It is a strong signal, the kind of thing that matters greatly, for decades to come.

“Russia and China are determined to defend their legitimate rights and interests, resist any attempts to hinder the normal development of bilateral ties, interfere in the internal affairs of the two states, and limit the economic, technological or foreign policy potential of Russia and China.”

The joint release went on to explore areas of cooperation/coordination between the neighboring autocracies: North Korea, Nuclear War, Markets, Industry, Agriculture, Technology, Energy, Ukraine, and of course Taiwan.

“The parties oppose the hegemonic attempts of the United States to change the balance of power in Northeast Asia by building up military power and creating military blocs and coalitions.”

The crack between East and West, the Global South and North, is rapidly widening. America’s competitors and adversaries appear to think that the window of opportunity is now open to divide the world before their collapsing demographics deny them any realistic chance of success.

Given their trajectories, it is probably a risk worth taking for Putin and Xi. “The China-Russia relationship today is hard-earned, and the two sides need to cherish and nurture it,” Xi told Putin during the press conference.

“China is willing to… jointly achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries and work together to uphold fairness and justice in the world.”

And to win, the US must simply have faith that the weight of the world’s nations will follow our lead, if only we have the courage and determination to live up to our founding principles.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 19:50

Too Narrowly Focused?

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Too Narrowly Focused?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Too Narrowly Focused?

The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to deteriorate (worst levels in a year).

Bond yields have declined (the 10-year Treasury got to 4.31% on Thursday, basically the bottom of our 4.3% to 4.5% range, and crept higher the rest of the week). Bonds in part moved on economic data (weak), inflation (high, but “explainable”), and Powell (who couldn’t resist being dovish) effectively dismissing the higher than anticipated PPI (explainable as it was). I’d argue that bond yields went lower partly due to economic data and partly due to Powell.

Stocks did well again this week (1% to 2% depending on the index), but the narrative seemed narrowly focused on Powell, cherry picking economic data, and the ongoing importance of corporate buybacks in an otherwise slow and boring tape.

As we start this week, Nvidia’s earnings on May 22nd seem to be the biggest catalyst as there is virtually no data on Monday or Tuesday. While we will likely hear from more Fed speakers, will anyone pay attention after Powell’s tone last week?

My concern, I guess, is that we are spending too much time focused on the Fed and inflation, while ignoring (or not treating as importantly) other data.

Inflation Fixation

The market, to some degree, has seemed to:

  • Wait for inflation data.
  • Explain away higher than expected prints.
  • Rally.

I completely understand the arguments for why the inflation prints were not as bad as they seemed on the surface. The explanations ranged from:

  • Downward revisions to prior months meant that inflation has been overstated (which I could agree with, if everyone didn’t seem to believe that official inflation data has underestimated the rise in prices that we all face every day).
  • The components. The components are critical, and the misses can be explained (at least somewhat) by components that aren’t as relevant or seem like one-time things (auto insurance for example). That all makes sense, though I have to admit that my rate of health insurance cost has blown away any official estimate of health insurance (maybe I’m unique? I don’t think so. Maybe healthcare isn’t that important? I beg to differ). In any case there are enough arguments to be made that I understand why the market was not overly perturbed by the prints (plus I have liked the 10-year down to 4.3% and still am in the 2-cut camp, so the arguments didn’t hurt there – they just didn’t translate into my equity underweight view).
  • Lag effects. This one bothers me on so many levels. Partly, when a year or so ago we were arguing that official inflation was too high due to the lagged effect of rent, it was a struggle to get traction with the theme (the government data was showing the highest monthly increases in decades, at times when online information was confirming a slowdown in rents). Actual rent increases still are occurring and have been pretty stable around pre-COVID levels (according to Zillow). So, the excitement that we use old data, which will start reflecting declines from almost a year ago, seems strange (to say the least). I cannot understand, for the life of me, why we use Owners ’ Equivalent Rent (which has always seemed like a bizarre method) and why we accept a methodology that is lagged (on purpose). Making any policy, on knowingly incorrect data, has never made sense and never will.

But, I’m not here to argue about where inflation has been, I’m here to point out that I think the market has been too narrowly fixated on past inflation, and what the Fed might do about that, while not thinking enough about some bigger picture issues.

My simple case for inflation is this:

  • If inflation continues to come down, it is likely to be tied to a weakening economy, which should be good for bonds, but not so good for stocks (assuming that tenuous link between lower bond yields and higher stocks can be broken again).
    • My worst-case view would be seeing a decline in inflation due to more and more selling of Chinese brands, which will put margin pressure on companies domiciled outside of China as they need to compete. The benefit of lower inflation will accrue to bondholders, but stocks won’t like declining sales, increased competition (largely on price), and the associated margin pressures.
  • If inflation goes higher, it could be due to:
    • Robust domestic job growth. A resurgence in the global economy, which would not be good for bonds, but stocks should do quite well even with rising bond yields.
    • Increased cooperation between China and Russia. Accidental or willful acts to increase commodity prices. Demand from India as their economy surges and the wealth effect takes hold. While this might not accompany “stagflation,” it could set us up for inflation on a global basis without commensurate growth in the domestic economy.

I do believe that with PPI and CPI behind us, markets will start delving deeper into the overall slew of economic data and are unlikely to like what they see.

China, Russia, and the Geopolitical Landscape

We asked the question, Will Tariffs Outweigh CPI? They didn’t. The media and most economists were quite sanguine about this round of tariffs (as opposed to the ones imposed in 2018, which remain in place). Maybe they were so “concentrated” that they are unlikely to impact the shape of the global economy? Maybe China won’t respond? Or maybe we are missing a big risk?

In Friday’s Geopolitical Risks – Perception versus Reality, we examine CYBER, Commodities, the Middle East, Russia, Trade War, and “wildcard” risk. For now, our assessment is that the biggest gap between perception and reality is around the Trade War (with commodities not too far behind). Please see that report, as nothing about the recent announcement that China and Russia are cooperating more makes me any less concerned that the Trade War is about to ratchet higher.

Also, if you missed it, I recommend listening to this month’s Around The World Podcast.

Bottom Line

  • Neutral on yields. We are too close to the bottom end of our range to be very bullish, and the specter of inflation (especially from commodities) is too troubling to take the range lower.
  • Underweight equities. As we move beyond inflation and the Fed (hopefully), the reality that is “less than exceptional” might start sinking in. As a reminder, FXI and KWEB (my proxies for China stocks) were up 5.6% and 7.1% respectively last week! I also think, based on our geopolitical work, that adding exposure to commodity related stocks (and the commodities themselves) makes sense.
  • I’m still not sure what we will learn about the AI story on Wednesday (everyone wants it, everyone needs it, everyone is getting it, and there are shortages even as prices rise), that isn’t already priced into this market.

Hopefully we do get an expanded narrative and spend less time and energy worrying about an inflation print here or there and how the Fed will act, and focus instead on the bigger discourse on the state of the global economy and the likely direction of travel (which I continue to think will not be favorable for our markets).

On the other hand, I could be the one being too narrowly focused (on China and geopolitics), but I’m encouraged by recent announcements that my fixation is valid (not encouraged for the state of global affairs, just in the narrow definition that I don’t think I’m wasting time or energy thinking about trade war escalation).

Tyler Durden
Sun, 05/19/2024 – 19:15

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