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Yen & Yellen Yank Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar On Otherwise Quiet Day

Yen & Yellen Yank Stocks, Bonds, & The Dollar On Otherwise Quiet Day

A quiet micro and macro day was dominated by Treasury’s QRA news (which spoiled all the fun by coming in less than some hyperbolic expectations), and Japanese intervention the FX markets.

Before the QRA headlines, Goldman’s trading desk noted that overall activity levels were down -19% vs the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes down -7% vs the 10dma, and added that “our floor is dead-paired buy vs sell, but HFs are net sellers and LOs are net buyers.”

After the QRA, activity picked up… to the downside.

And that prompted a rapid down-draft in stocks shortly after 3pmET (led by Small Caps which had been outperforming). However, that didn’t last long as traders quickly remembered that the buyback window reopens later this week. All the majors ended higher on the day with Small Caps leading and the S&P and Nasdaq lagging. By the last few minutes, all the QRA anxiety was long-gone and stocks were surging back towards the highs…

The Dow and Russell 2000 both found support at their 100DMA on the initial QRA dip and bounced right off it…

‘Most Shorted’ stocks dumped on the QRA news, after extending the large two-day squeeze from Thurs/Fri. The basket still ended green on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA made headlines with news from China that the carmaker’s full-self-drive will be cleared for us, rallying 15% for its best day in three years…

Yields also kneejerked higher on the QRA news but not enough to ruin the day, with yields down 2-4bps across the curve (with the belly outperforming)…

Source: Bloomberg

By the end of the day, yields were at the low of the day and stocks at the high of the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Elsewhere the reaction was muted as traders tried to figure out what the QRA news meant.

The dollar index was dominated by Japanese officials fiddling while Tokyo burns…

Source: Bloomberg

…after yen plunged overnight to its 1990 lows and the very visible hand stepped in…

Source: Bloomberg

Did Japan’s “benign neglect” come to an end?

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was magnificently unmoved by the Borrowing and BoJ buggery, ending very modestly lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil ended lower on the day, legging down three times, interestingly in tune with Japan’s intervention…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was lower today after a modest rollercoaster over the weekend. Notably BTC found support at $62,000 and bounced this afternoon…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, fear is being rapidly rinsed out of the markets once again…

Source: Bloomberg

…and financial conditions will start easing…

Source: Bloomberg

…too much (again) for Powell’s liking (even in an election year)

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 16:00

If You Want People To Have Babies You’re Now “Far Right”

If You Want People To Have Babies You’re Now “Far Right”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A report published by Politico claims that wanting the human race to reproduce is now a “far right” position to take.

Yes, really.

Leftists are so obsessed with identity politics, they’re arguing that human reproduction, and being in favour of people having babies is now right wing.

The article focuses on a recent natal convention , and states that “The far right is so obsessed with making babies, they just held a whole conference about it.”

They are even using a political term for this ‘movement’, Natalism.

Wikipedia says the term Natalism (also called pronatalism or the pro-birth position) dates from 1971, and “is an ideology that promotes the reproduction of human life as an important objective of being human and advocates high birthrate.”

Apparently it’s no longer just a fact that the reproduction of human life is an important objective of being human. After all, if there is no reproduction of human life, there is no being human to be had.

The Politico piece, written by Gaby Del Valle, who “is a reporter whose work focuses on immigration, surveillance and the far right,” makes light of the fact that global fertility rates are in a tailspin.

It reads, “The threat, we are told here this weekend, is existential, biological, epoch-defining. Economies will fail, civilizations will fall, and it will all happen because people aren’t having enough babies.”

It goes on to argue that the people attending the ‘NatalCon’ are more concerned with “a total social overhaul” and “breeding a new majority — one that looks and sounds just like them.”

It suggests that concerns over higher instances of divorce, the break down of the traditional family in modern society and the rise of ideologies like transgenderism are just a part of “liberal democracy,” and that those concerned about them impacting the global human population and society as a whole are just being a bit silly.

“In recent years, various factions of the old and the new right have coalesced around the idea that babies might be the cure for everything that’s wrong with society,” Del Valle writes, going on to intimate that really these ‘natalists’ are just bigoted and anti-immigration, and that immigration is really the way to solve the decline in birth rates.

She then throw in some “white supremacy” stuff for no reason other than to disingenuously conflate it with people who think having babies is a good thing.

The piece then insinuates that problems such as microplastics contributing to declining sperm counts, endocrine disruptors being present in water and birth control pills having detrimental effects on women’s fertility are all just conspiracy theories because they’re amplified by people who have X accounts… or something.

The article then goes on to basically suggest that those advocating an increase in people having babies only want certain kinds of people, specifically white conservative people, to have babies and that, essentially they’re all far right racists.

Incredible.

As we highlighted earlier, the fertility rate in the US HAS fallen to an all time low, as recorded by the CDC, and continues to decline at a rate of around 2 percent every year.

In 1960, the US total fertility rate was 3.65 births per woman. In 2023 it was 1.6. The average fertility rate needed to maintain the population is 2.1 children for every woman.

That’s not a conspiracy theory.

A major study published in scientific journal The Lancet earlier this year found that the global population will start to fall within decades due to vastly reduced fertility rates and may never recover.

The study found that the global fertility rate is currently 2.23, hovering only just above the replacement rate.

Commenting on the study, its co-author Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee said declining fertility rates “will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies.”

It’s not a bunch of “far right” people at a nerdy conference making it up.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 15:45

Treasury Estimates Borrowing Needs For Q3 Which Sneak Below The Median Estimate

Treasury Estimates Borrowing Needs For Q3 Which Sneak Below The Median Estimate

Ahead of today’s big event – the Treasury borrowing estimates publication – we said that contrary to hyperbolic expectations of $300BN in revised Q2 funding needs and a whopping $1.2 trillion in Q3, the most likely range of Q2 and Q3 borrowing estimates is as follows: a ranges of $120bn to $240bn for Q2, and $650bn to $850bn for Q3, to wit:

Well, at exactly 3:00pm the Treasury published the numbers, and while we were almost spot on correct, they did come on the high end of our forecast range, specifically:

  • Q2 funding needs were revised higher to $243 billion (just above the upper end of our range of $240 billion) from $202 billion projected last quarter.  According to the Treasury, the borrowing estimate was “$41 billion higher than announced in January 2024, largely due to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning of quarter cash balance.
  • Q3 funding needs (released for the first time) were estimated at $847 billion, just below the upper end of our range of $850BN.

But wait, there’s more, because while the Treasury projects $750BN cash balance at end of Q2, this number rises to $850BN at end of Q3, and since the streetwide estimate for Q3 end of quarter cash was $750BN, this suggests that the real funding needs (on an apples to apples basis) is actually $747BN, which is below the median Wall Street estimate.

Source: Treasury

Bottom line: amid some ridiculous speculation and even conspiracy theories that the BOJ intervened today because it was expecting a surge in funding needs, the Treasury reported numbers that came in in line with expectations for Q2, and actually below the estimate for Q3, which is precisely what we said, because the number is driven not so much by financial but by political considerations.

The real question should be not what the Treasury projects for Q2 and Q3, but Q4, which is after the election, and when all the lipstick on this pig will finally wash off.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 15:25

“He’s Back”: Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas Say Musk’s China Trip Is “Gesture Of Tesla Commitment”

“He’s Back”: Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas Say Musk’s China Trip Is “Gesture Of Tesla Commitment”

Tesla bears are getting their nuts squeezed in the US cash session Monday after Elon Musk’s surprise weekend trip to Beijing landed the EV carmaker a deal with tech giant Baidu to roll out its driver-assistance system, known as “Full Self-Driving,” or FSD, in the world’s largest car market.

Earlier, we noted Wedbush Securities senior analyst Dan Ives’ comment on Musk’s trip as a “watershed moment” for Tesla and “this could open up FSD in China, which I view as unlocking what really could be the golden opportunity for them.” 

Now Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, one of Tesla’s most prominent Wall Street bulls, states in bold print on the top of his note to clients today, “He’s back.” 

“Elon Musk’s visit to China means far more than seeking approval for self driving tech on Chinese roads. Whether Tesla’s CEO is sleeping on a floor or on a plane… the message is clear: he’s back,” Jonas said. 

Jonas wrote there had been mounting investor concerns about whether Musk was “all in” on Tesla, considering the billionaire spends some of his precious time (only appears) on an anti-woke crusade on his X platform. The analyst said Musk’s weekend trip to China was a “gesture of commitment” to Tesla:

  • Commitment. Investor concerns around whether Elon Musk was ‘all in’ on Tesla have been weighing heavily on the stock since the compensation package was rejected by Delaware judge. Even the smallest gesture of commitment (an unannounced trip to Beijing) has elevated meaning here, combating concerns over Musk’s commitment to Tesla relative the broader Musk ecosystem of companies (SpaceX/X.AI/etc.).

Jonas made a very interesting point about Musk’s national security clearance, saying it must be “higher than that of the typical American CEO due to his control of SpaceX and the range of missions it conducts with NASA, Space Force and the broader DoD.” 

He added that China’s “blessing” of an FSD rollout in the country “seems to address embedded fears of Tesla’s China profit (we estimate China accounts for as much as one half of profit).” 

Jonas reiterated an overweight rating on Tesla with a $310 price target. 

Here’s how the analyst arrived at the $310 figure: 

He also touched on notable upside and downside risks to the future outlook. 

Musk’s timing of the China trip comes as Tesla’s short interest hit a three-year high, or about 3.84% of the float short, equivalent to about 106 million shares. 

For all those technicians out there… 

Meanwhile, on X, Musk posted this image…

There’s nothing like a good ole’ squeeze. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 14:55

‘Crying Out For Justice’: Female Athletes Sue NCAA Over “Dangerous” Transgender Policies

‘Crying Out For Justice’: Female Athletes Sue NCAA Over “Dangerous” Transgender Policies

Authored by Liliana Zylstra via The College Fix,

Female college athletes are “crying out for justice,” safety, and privacy in a lawsuit challenging the National Collegiate Athletic Association’s transgender policies, their attorney told The College Fix in an exclusive interview.

Attorney William Bock III said the 16 plaintiffs, all current or former collegiate athletes, are challenging the NCAA and the University of Georgia for violating Title IX’s provisions for equal opportunity in sports by allowing males to compete in the women’s category.

The lawsuit also alleges female athletes’ right to bodily privacy under the 14th Amendment was violated.

According to the suit, the NCAA authorized “naked men possessing full male genitalia to disrobe in front of non- consenting college women and creating situations in which unwilling female college athletes unwittingly or reluctantly expose their naked or partially clad bodies to males.”

Bock told The Fix in a recent phone interview that many athletes sent letters sharing their concerns about these policies to the NCAA, but they were ignored.

“They’re crying out for justice and the NCAA won’t even talk to them,” he said.

It isn’t even willing to respect their concerns enough to give them an audience. So it became clear that the only thing that would have a chance of changing their policy is filing a lawsuit.”

Bock told The Fix, “The NCAA is so committed to radical gender ideology that they have completely lost concern for women’s rights.”

“It’s very clear that the NCAA violated the law,” he said.

Bock formerly worked as general counsel for the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency and served as the lead attorney for USADA in the case against professional cyclist Lance Armstrong.

“The advantage that Lance Armstrong got through doping pales in comparison to the advantage that male athletes have when competing against females in collegiate sports,” he said.

“The NCAA suggests that one can reduce or eliminate the performance gap [between men and women] by suppressing testosterone and that’s ludicrous from a matter of science,” Bock told The Fix.

Bock also served on the NCAA Committee on Infractions for several years. However, he quit earlier this year after expressing concerns about transgender athletes like former University of Pennsylvania swimmer William “Lia” Thomas, a male who identifies as female who won an NCAA Division I championship on the women’s team in 2022.

Safety is among female athletes’ biggest concerns, Bock said. “The NCAA is not in many instances even telling women that they’re competing against a male. And that’s dangerous … in a contact sport where you can get a concussion.”

Female athletes speak out

Two of the plaintiffs also spoke with The Fix in a phone interview about their concerns for safety, fairness, and the overall future of women’s sports.

Ainsley Erzen (pictured right), a soccer and track athlete at the University of Arkansas, said, “We want the stories that people are seeing now to be the last ones. We don’t want the generations in the future to deal with that.”

Erzen said she and her fellow athletes are fighting so women will have the opportunities to set records, win championships and earn college scholarships.

“What kind of message are we sending to women — but especially to young girls — when we tell them that their safety doesn’t matter, their rights don’t matter, their opportunities don’t matter, their futures don’t matter?” she told The Fix.

Kaitlynn Wheeler (pictured left), a former swimmer for the University of Kentucky, said the protection of women’s sports is a ”common-sense issue.”

Wheeler told The Fix speaking up is important “because the overwhelming majority of people are on our side.”

“This lawsuit is really not about hurting anyone. It’s about helping the women who have been hurt and preventing it from happening in the future. It’s about ensuring fair, equal, and safe competition and I think that just about everyone should want that,” she said.

An NCAA spokesperson declined to comment on the lawsuit in response to a request from The Fix.

“College sports are the premier stage for women’s sports in America, and while the NCAA does not comment on pending litigation, the Association and its members will continue to promote Title IX, make unprecedented investments in women’s sports and ensure fair competition in all NCAA championships,” the association said in an emailed statement.

Others involved in the lawsuit include Riley Gaines, a former 12-time All-American swimmer at the University of Kentucky and current advocate for women’s sports. The Independent Council on Women’s Sports is supporting the athletes’ case.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 14:35

‘Leave Or Be Suspended’: Columbia Gives Protesters Until 2PM, Or Else

‘Leave Or Be Suspended’: Columbia Gives Protesters Until 2PM, Or Else

Columbia University has given protesting students until 2pm to leave their encampment and sign a form committing to abide by university policies through June 30, 2025, or by their graduation. Failure to do so will disqualify students from graduating this spring, or from participating in academic and extracurricular activities, Axios reports.

“It is important for you to know that the university has already identified many students in the encampment,” reads the Monday letter that was shared by Columbia Students for Justice in Palestine. “If you do not leave by 2pm, you will be suspended pending further investigation.”

“Sanctions include probation, access restriction, suspension for a term or more and expulsion,” reads the Monday notice – which doesn’t look like it’s going well.

According to the letter, talks between university leaders and student leaders at the encampment are at an impasse and the unauthorized encampment and associated disruption to the campus has created an “unwelcoming environment” which violates various school policies – including rules governing disruptive behavior and harassment.

Please promptly gather your belongings and leave the encampment,” reads the letter. “If you voluntarily leave by 2 p.m., identify yourself to a University officials, and sign the provided form where you commit to abide by all University policies through June 30, 2025, or the date of the conferral of your degree, whichever is earlier, you will be eligible to complete the semester in good standing (and will not be placed on suspension) as long as you adhere to that commitment.”

Officials say they hope the protesting students will sign the form and leave by the deadline. Those who refuse will be put on disciplinary probation.

As the Epoch Times notes further, efforts to dismantle the encampment have failed, as university president Minouche Shafik has faced an outcry from many students, faculty, and outside observers for summoning New York City police to take down the unauthorized encampment, resulting in more than 100 arrests.

Protesters have vowed to keep their encampment unless three demands are met: divestment from Israel, transparency in Columbia’s finances, and amnesty for students and staff disciplined for taking part in the protests.

Ms. Shafik said in her Monday statement that Columbia would not divest from Israel but that the university has offered to publish a process for students to access a list of its direct investment holdings, in the interest of transparency. Columbia has also offered to make investments in health and education in Gaza. And the letter sent to protesters promises an amnesty of sorts.

She said that the campus has been roiled by divisions over the war in Gaza and, despite the fact that the school has provided space for protests and vigils that did not disrupt academic life, the encampment has gone too far.

“We must take into account the rights of all members of our community,” she wrote. “The encampment has created an unwelcoming environment for many of our Jewish students and faculty. External actors have contributed to creating a hostile environment in violation of Title VI, especially around our gates, that is unsafe for everyone—including our neighbors.”

“With classes now concluding, it represents a noisy distraction for our students studying for exams and for everyone trying to complete the academic year,” she continued, adding that Columbia would allow protests to continue on campus—by application with two-days’ notice in authorized locations—after the exam period and commencement.

“We have no intention of suppressing speech or the right to peaceful protest,” Ms. Shafik wrote, adding that the protesting students had been asked to commit to following the university’s rules, including those on the time, place, and manner of demonstrations.

We urge those in the encampment to voluntarily disperse,” she added.

It comes as a group of 21 House Democrats criticized the “anti-Israel, anti-Jewish” encampment at Columbia in an April 29 letter to the school’s trustees.

“We, the undersigned, write to express our disappointment that, despite promises to do so, Columbia University has not yet disbanded the unauthorized and impermissible encampment of anti-Israel, anti-Jewish activists on campus,” the lawmakers said in their letter.

“As a result of this disruption on campus, supported by some faculty members, many students have been prevented from safely attending class, the main library, and from leaving their dorm rooms in an apparent violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act.”

The group, led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), is different from calls condemning the protests that have mostly come from GOP leaders. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Republican colleagues visited the campus last week and called for Ms. Shafik to resign.

Chase Smith contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 13:49

Alvin Bragg And The Art Of Not Taking Law Too Seriously

Alvin Bragg And The Art Of Not Taking Law Too Seriously

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Rube Goldberg, the inventor of bizarre machines that performed simple tasks through dozens of mechanical steps, was once asked about the essence of creating such fantastic, illogical machines. He replied “An inventor is simply a fellow who doesn’t take his education too seriously.”

After the first week of testimony, the trial of Donald Trump is increasingly looking like a mad prosecution machine by lawyers who don’t take law too seriously.

I have long been a critic of the Bragg indictment as legally incomprehensible. However, I must confess that after a week of testimony, some of us have developed a weird fascination with the utter madness of the scene unfolding in Manhattan. It was not until the second week of proceedings that Bragg even revealed part of his theory of criminality. For months, even liberal legal analysts have expressed dismay that Bragg’s indictment had not clearly stated what specific crime that Trump sought to conceal by allegedly misrepresenting payments to former adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

The premise of the prosecution always had that Rube Goldberg feel. It was so implausible as to be impossible. After all, the base charge is a simple misdemeanor under a New York law against falsifying business records. Trump paid Cohen hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees and costs, including $130,000 for a nondisclosure agreement with Daniels.

Bragg is vague as to what should have been noted on the ledgers for the payments. It is not even clear if Trump knew of this expense’s designation as a legal cost.

However, it really did not matter, because the misdemeanor has been as dead as Dillinger for years.

The dead misdemeanor was shocked back into life by claiming that it was committed to conceal another crime. Under New York’s penal law, section 175.10, it can be a felony if the “intent to defraud includes an intent to commit another crime or to aid or conceal the commission thereof.”

For months, Bragg has suggested that the “other crime” was the violation of federal election laws, suggesting that the payment was really a campaign contribution Trump made to himself that was not properly recorded. The problem is that the Justice Department investigated that crime already and decided that it was not a viable criminal claim. It did not even seek a civil fine.

Bragg’s predecessor and Bragg himself rejected the theory behind this prosecution.

But then a pressure campaign led Bragg to green-light a prosecution roughly eight years after the 2016 campaign.

In the trial, Bragg added a type of frying pan flip to his Rube Goldberg contraption by arguing that Trump may have been trying to hide his violation of another dead misdemeanor under yet another New York election law prohibiting “conspir[ing] to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means.”

In other words, Trump was conspiring to try to win his own election. This even though the notations were made after he had won the election, and even though Trump was running for a federal, not a state office.

So again, what is the unlawful means?

The machine then flips you back to the beginning — seeking “to influence the election.” There are still the federal election violations, but that theory was rejected after an investigation. And if it were a real crime, it would be brought by federal, not state prosecutors.

There are also the misdemeanor falsifications of business records under section 175.05. So Bragg would use one dead misdemeanor to trigger a second dead misdemeanor to create a felony on the simple notations used to describe payments for a completely legal nondisclosure agreement.

This circular reasoning is already incredibly creative, but the actual evidence used to propel this ball through the machine is even wackier. Bragg decided to start with a witness to discuss an affair that is not part of the indictment. David Pecker, former publisher of the National Enquirer tabloid, had supposedly been paid to kill a story of a Trump affair with a different woman, Karen McDougal, a former Playboy model.

Pecker proceeded to make the prosecution case even more convoluted. On cross examination, Pecker admitted that had Trump told him that he knew nothing about any reimbursement to Cohen for any hush money, that he had killed or raised such stories with Trump for decades before he ever announced for president and that he had also killed stories for other celebrities and politicians, including Arnold Schwarzenegger, Tiger Woods, Rahm Emanuel and Mark Wahlberg.

He also testified that Trump told him that paying hush money never really worked because stories still get out. And he understood that Michael Cohen was working as Trump’s personal counsel, not his campaign counsel. Finally, he testified that Trump had no direct involvement in arranging any payments to McDougal.

Pecker added that Bragg’s star witness, Michael Cohen, commonly exaggerated and often became loud and argumentative. Cohen will effectively ask the jury to send his former client to jail for following his own legal advice.

Bragg will now call to the stand Cohen, whom a judge just recently denounced as a serial perjurer who is continuing to game the system.

Even as legal experts debate what crime can be found in any of these flips and dips, Judge Juan Merchan seems content to listen as this weird machine bleeps and whirls in his courtroom.

That is why Bragg has created the perfect Rube Goldberg attraction. The artist himself explained his unlikely success by saying, “It just happened that the public happened to appreciate the satirical quality of these crazy things.”

In New York, that appreciation has moved from the satirical to the legal.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 13:40

Supreme Court Rejects Elon Musk’s “Free Speech” Appeal In SEC Case

Supreme Court Rejects Elon Musk’s “Free Speech” Appeal In SEC Case

Another day, another chapter in the Elon Musk vs. SEC saga.

The US Supreme Court declined to hear Elon Musk’s appeal regarding his ongoing “Twitter sitter” case, Bloomberg reported on Monday, keeping Musk’s agreement with the SEC to have a company lawyer approve his social media posts in place.

Musk, without success, had argued that the 2018 agreement infringed upon his constitutional right to free speech.

The decision marks the latest development in Musk’s lengthy, ongoing dispute with the SEC, which started after he tweeted in August 2018 that he had “funding secured” for a potential $80 billion take-private deal for Tesla.

As a result, Tesla stock rocketed higher the day of. 

Following Musk’s tweet, the SEC filed a lawsuit alleging shareholder deception and, shortly after, Musk settled with the SEC, agreeing to step down as Tesla chairman and pay a $20 million fine.

In 2021, Musk reopened the dispute by conducting a Twitter poll regarding selling 10% of his stock. This prompted the SEC to issue subpoenas to Musk and Tesla. Musk then sought to annul his pre-screening agreement, but his arguments were dismissed by a federal appeals court last year.

Musk’s lawyers had argued to the Supreme Court that the agreement was a “quintessential prior restraint that the law forbids.”

They said in their appeal: “The pre-approval provision at issue continues to cast an unconstitutional chill over Mr. Musk’s speech whenever he considers making public communications.”

In its brief, the SEC responded: “This court has consistently held that, in resolving litigation, parties may choose to waive even fundamental constitutional rights.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 13:20

US Has Now Lost Three MQ-9 Reaper Drones Over Yemen, At Cost Of $90 Million

US Has Now Lost Three MQ-9 Reaper Drones Over Yemen, At Cost Of $90 Million

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

A military spokesman for Yemen’s Houthis announced on Saturday that their forces downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone that was operating over Yemen and was carrying out a “hostile mission.”

US officials confirmed to CBS News that a US Air Force MQ-9 drone “crashed” in Yemen early Friday morning and said they’re investigating the cause. MQ-9s are estimated to cost $30 million each, and Friday’s incident marked the third time the Houthis downed one since November.

USAF image

Besides losing $90 million in MQ-9 drones, the US has also used about $1 billion in munitions in its new bombing campaign in Yemen and other operations in the Middle East that started due to Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.

The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, also said they struck the MV Andromeda Star, a British-owned oil tanker, with missiles. The damage to the vessel was confirmed by US Central Command, which said on Friday that the “MV Andromeda Star reports minor damage but is continuing its voyage.”

The Houthis began targeting British and American commercial shipping after the US and the UK started bombing Yemen on January 12. The Yemeni group initially said it only targeted Israeli-linked shipping to protest the siege on Gaza.

Hundreds of US and British missile strikes on Yemen have done nothing to deter the Houthis, who insist the campaign will only stop once there’s a ceasefire in Gaza.

The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became more of a capable fighting force during that time.

The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 13:00

“I’m Worried…[About] Four More Years” – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Contracts For 24th Straight Month

“I’m Worried…[About] Four More Years” – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Contracts For 24th Straight Month

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook survey has now been in contraction (below zero) every month since May 2022, falling modestly to -14.5 in April (worse than the -11.2 expected).

New Orders also remain negative (but did improve) and prices continue to rise (though at a slower pace). Labor market measures suggested flat employment and slightly shorter workweeks (hours worked index remained negative for a seventh month in a row) this month.

However, wit that said, wage pressure picked up dramatically this week to a seven-month high

Source: Bloomberg

However, as always, we glean the most informative perspective from the respondents completed surveys where the pessimism shines through…

  • The business and political environment is terrible.
  • Business has not been this slow since COVID, and I’m worried.

  • Consumer confidence for consumer goods has noticeably worsened.

  • Customer orders have dropped. The indication is the economy is hurting spending in our area specifically. Customer uncertainty is worsening.

  • I keep thinking we’ll hit bottom and either level out or turn up, but we keep pushing those hopes out a month, and another month, and another.

  • There has been a decrease in new orders for three weeks now. Currently, we think this will come around, but we get more concerned as time goes on.

  • Industrial manufacturing is showing signs of positivity due to the possibility of an interest rate decrease. Please do it. Manufacturing is really hurting.

High prices remain problem for many businesses:

  • Inflationary pressures on raw materials and construction costs are driving up the cost of public projects. This is causing states to delay or scramble for funding for projects that have long lead times.

  • Business is generally good, but we’re starting to see more customer resistance to prices. Our costs have increased dramatically over the last two years, and we have customers asking to hold prices to last year’s level, which we just can’t do. We continue to make capital investments to improve productivity and reduce unit labor cost.

And finally, many are fearful of another four years of Bidenomics:

  • Political instability and politicization have hampered growth. We are entering stagflation.

  • Fewer governmental regulations would lower our cost of doing business. An example is the 332 report, which we must fill out for the U.S. government; it has no value for us, just expense.

  • Business is extremely slow, and we see no signs of improvement. We think it will stay slow until after the presidential election, after which, we will either have four more years of slow business or an improving economy.

Maybe that explains why even CNN was forced to admit the latest poll shows Biden  fading fast…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/29/2024 – 12:40