A Brazilian legislator last week mocked one of LGBT activists’ core arguments in favor of transgenderism with a simple demonstration during a state assembly session in São Paulo.
Faviana Bolsonaro, a 32-year-old female member of the country’s right-leaning Liberal Party, took the dais on Wednesday to protest the appointment of Erika Hilton, a biological-male transgender activist, to the Chamber of Deputies, equivalent to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Hilton, who is black, is a member of the opposing Socialism and Liberty Party.
A viral video showed that Bolsonaro (who changed her name in solidarity with former conservative president Jair Bolsonaro, no relation) applied blackface during her speech to underscore the point that wishful thinking could not change one’s inherent identity.
“I am a white woman. I’ve had the privileges of a white person my whole life,” she said, according to a translation from the original Portuguese. “Now, at 32, I decide to paint myself, to disguise myself as a black person … and I ask you: did I become black? Do I feel the pain that black people have suffered? … No.”
This post is misleading, not because you must agree with Fabiana Bolsonaro, but because it distorts what she actually said.
Here are her own words, translated as faithfully as possible:
“I am a white woman. I’ve had the privileges of a white person my whole life.”
Biographical details are unclear as to when and if Hilton fully transitioned to “female,” although reports suggest that the former sex worker has been living as a woman since at least 2015, when Hilton’s LGBT activism first rose to prominence.
Hilton and another transgender legislator, Duda Salabert, both entered the national parliament following Brazil’s highly controversial 2022 election, the equivalent of the 2020 election in the U.S., in which far-left President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ousted Jair Bolsonaro — known as the “Trump of the Tropics” — under dubious circumstances.
Regardless of the electoral legitimacy, though, Fabiana Bolsonaro argued that Hilton was unfit to lead on women’s issues by virtue of lived experiences — or a lack thereof.
“It doesn’t matter if I paint myself — I don’t know what you went through,” she said.
“That’s why I cannot lead that agenda … because I am not black.”
She added a point that critics of the transgender agenda often seek to make: that many opponents are perfectly willing to respect an individual’s private choice to live a transgender lifestyle, so long as doing so does not intrude upon the rights of others who refuse to indulge it.
“Trans people must be respected. … I don’t want any trans person to suffer discrimination,” Bolsonaro noted.
Colombian Air Force C-130 Cargo Plane Carrying 110 Soldiers Crashes: Report
Dramatic footage circulating on X appears to show a Colombian military Hercules C-130 transport aircraft crashing shortly after takeoff from Puerto Leguízamo in southern Colombia. The cause of the crash remains unknown, and Colombian authorities have not yet released an official casualty count.
Local outlet Blu Radio reported that 110 Colombian soldiers were on board at the time of the C-130’s straight-out departure from the airport in the remote Amazon border region near Peru.
En un video aficionado quedó captado el momento exacto en el que un avión Hércules de la Fuerza Aeroespacial Colombiana (FAC) se precipitó a tierra solo instantes después de haber despegado del aeropuerto de Puerto Leguízamo, en el departamento del Putumayo. #VocesySonidospic.twitter.com/HvbXwwR1cS
Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez said military units had already reached the crash site but noted that “the exact number of victims and the causes of the crash have not yet been determined.”
Sánchez’s translated X post:
Additional footage from the crash area has also surfaced on X.
Atención: Un avión Hércules de la @FuerzaAereaCol se accidentó saliendo de La Tagua, Putumayo. 110 soldados iban a bordo. Ya han sido rescatados 20 militares heridos. Situación en desarrollo. Vía @BluRadioCopic.twitter.com/Jgb4tw74aP
#ATENTOS. Cerca de 100 personas iban a bordo de aeronave siniestrada en zona rural del Putumayo este 23MAR. El hecho fue confirmado por Min/Defensa Pedro Sánchez, quien indicó que el avión transportaba tropas de la Fuerza Pública y que aún se desconocen las causas del siniestro. https://t.co/oVJhzXgiY5pic.twitter.com/jdhQ1RlAXw
The Colombian Aerospace Force operates a small Hercules fleet, comprising older C-130B models and newer C-130H variants, with a total inventory estimated at roughly 9 aircraft. The loss of the transport plane represents a meaningful hit to airlift capacity.
Neither local media nor the government has provided clarity on whether the troops were engaged in a training mission, routine transport, or deployment tied to the escalating border crisis with Ecuador.
The crash comes just one week after Ecuador’s Interior Minister John Reimberg deployed 75,000 troops in the South American country to combat drug cartels, while Colombian President Gustavo Petro warned that Ecuador’s campaign was spilling over and that Colombia was being “bombed.”
🚨¡OPERACIÓN “PODOCARPUS”: DESTRUCCIÓN DE 129 CAMPAMENTOS DE MINERÍA ILEGAL Y AFECTACIÓN ECONÓMICA DE $3 MILLONES A LAS MAFIAS PARA RECUPERAR TOTALMENTE ESTE TERRITORIO!🚨
➡️Con un gran despliegue militar, durante nueve días de operaciones sostenidas en el Parque Nacional… pic.twitter.com/acae76SmhX
— Ministerio de Defensa Nacional del Ecuador (@DefensaEc) March 16, 2026
The absence of evidence so far is foul play, well, at least in the initial reporting. But given rising tensions between Colombia and Ecuador and the broader crisis over the last week, the region warrants close monitoring.
Lawmakers Introduce Bipartisan Bill To Ban Sports Betting Via Prediction Markets
Lawmakers have never met a market they didn’t want to control. And when they can’t do that, they try to crush them – sometimes after taking six-figure donations from competing lobbies. To wit; Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA), and John Curtis (R-UT), on Monday introduced legislation that would prohibit federally regulated prediction-market platforms from offering wagers on sports events, targeting what they call a regulatory backdoor that has let online betting proliferate beyond state control. Reading between the lines, prediction market betting is clearly a threat to the old guard.
The bill, titled the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, would bar entities overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission – including leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S. operations – from listing or trading contracts tied to the outcomes of any sporting event or athletic competition. It would also extend the prohibition to “casino-style games” such as slot machines, video poker, blackjack and bingo. The measure marks the first bipartisan Senate legislation aimed squarely at prediction markets’ expansion into sports wagering.
The push comes as the broader U.S. sports-betting industry – legalized nationwide after a landmark 2018 Supreme Court ruling – generated a record handle of roughly $167 billion and gross gaming revenue of about $17 billion in 2025. More than 90% of those bets are placed online or via mobile apps operated by companies such as DraftKings Inc. and Flutter Entertainment Plc.’s FanDuel. Yet prediction markets, which structure wagers as yes-or-no event contracts under CFTC oversight rather than state gambling licenses, have carved out a parallel lane. These platforms, which gained prominence during the 2024 presidential election, now derive a significant share of volume from professional and college sports, offering bets even in states that prohibit traditional sportsbooks.
OF NOTE: The gambling industry contributed $111,876 to Sen. Schiff during the 2023-2024 election cycle, with California tribal gaming entities being particularly supportive – donating six-figure sums to pro-Schiff leadership PACs and related efforts.
Meanwhile, the American Gaming Association (AGA), which represents licensed operators including DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment, and the Indian Gaming Association (IGA) have publicly pressed Congress and states to crack down on prediction-market sports contracts.
A Regulatory Loophole Sparks Bipartisan Alarm
Schiff and Curtis argue that betting via prediction markets undermines state authority, deprives governments and tribal casinos of tax revenue, and exposes young people to addictive products without the consumer protections that accompany licensed sportsbooks. “The CFTC is greenlighting these markets and even promoting their growth,” Schiff said. “It’s time for Congress to step in and eliminate this backdoor, which violates state consumer protections, intrudes upon tribal sovereignty and offers no public revenue.”
Curtis, whose home state of Utah remains one of the few without legal sports betting, highlighted concerns about youth access. “Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators,” he said.
The legislation aligns with a companion House effort, the Event Contract Enforcement Act, introduced earlier this month by Reps. Blake Moore, a Utah Republican, and Salud Carbajal, a California Democrat. That bill would require the CFTC to prohibit event contracts related to sports and gaming, among other sensitive categories such as terrorism and elections, while giving states an opt-out for sports-related contracts. “Prediction markets also sponsor sports-related contracts against the wishes of many states, including Utah,” Moore said in a statement.
States have grown increasingly frustrated. Attorneys general from 39 states and the District of Columbia have urged federal courts to uphold their authority. Nevada secured a temporary restraining order last week blocking Kalshi from offering sports, election and entertainment contracts without state licenses. Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi’s parent companies. Lawsuits and countersuits have proliferated, with platforms arguing exclusive federal jurisdiction and states insisting the products amount to illegal gambling.
The Supreme Court’s 2018 decision striking down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act unleashed a wave of state legalization. Thirty-eight states plus the District of Columbia now permit sports betting, generating billions in tax revenue and creating thousands of jobs. Major leagues from the NFL to the NBA have embraced partnerships, sharing data for integrity monitoring and reaping sponsorship dollars.
Prediction Markets Exploding in Popularity
Prediction markets have exploded from niche election curiosities into a multi-billion-dollar parallel sports-betting channel. Kalshi posted roughly $17–24 billion in notional volume in 2025 (85–87% sports), while Polymarket reached $21.5 billion overall (sports ~39% globally, nearly 100% on its U.S. app). Combined monthly trading volume for the two platforms surged to nearly $18 billion in February 2026 and hit a record $26 billion in January 2026, with Kalshi alone handling more than $2 billion per week ahead of the Super Bowl. Valuations followed: Kalshi hit an $11 billion mark, Polymarket $8 billion, fueled by venture inflows and retail/crypto traders who treat contracts like liquid equities rather than traditional parlays.
This growth has turned the platforms into a measurable competitive pressure point. Kalshi’s sports-fee revenue is already running at an annualized pace that rivals roughly 25% of DraftKings’ projected 2026 take, while both operators now serve prohibition states that traditional books cannot touch. User bases have scaled rapidly – Kalshi monthly actives topped 5 million, Polymarket’s on-chain DAU records exceeded 150,000 in recent weeks – creating a younger, more tech-native cohort that bypasses state licensing, taxes, and responsible-gaming mandates. Traditional operators view the trajectory as existential if unchecked: without federal intervention, analysts project the sector could capture 3–5% of national sports revenue in 2026 and far more by decade’s end.
Industry Reaction and Market Moves
Traditional sports-betting operators appeared to welcome the news. Shares of DraftKings rose more than 7% in premarket trading Monday, only to settle up 2.3% as of this writing, while Flutter Entertainment gained nearly 9.5% (now only up 5.15%). The American Gaming Association, which represents many licensed operators, has long warned that unregulated prediction markets threaten state-regulated markets and lack responsible-gaming standards.
Kalshi pushed back sharply. “Banning sports on regulated prediction markets would just push this behavior offshore, where no regulation exists,” said spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana. “It’s clear this bill is motivated by casino interests that are threatened by competition.” Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The prediction-market sector itself remains nascent but fast-growing, with platforms reporting billions in trading volume and attracting venture-capital interest. Proponents argue the markets promote price discovery and innovation; critics counter that sports contracts function indistinguishably from gambling.
The new bill joins a slate of bipartisan measures addressing sports betting. The SAFE Bet Act, backed by Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Rep. Paul Tonko of New York, would impose federal minimum standards on state programs – including advertising restrictions during live events, limits on bonus bets and curbs on credit-card deposits. Separately, the POINTS Act would direct roughly one-third of the federal excise tax on sports betting – potentially $100 million annually – toward prevention, treatment and recovery services for gambling addiction.
Supporters frame the efforts as protecting consumers without dismantling an industry that has become a significant economic force. Opponents warn that heavy-handed federal intervention could stifle innovation, reduce tax revenue and drive activity to offshore sites.
It has been the worst flooding Oahu has seen in more than 20 years, and as of the morning of March 21, the torrential rains and rushing waters continue to flow across the mountainous island and the rest of the Hawaiian archipelago.
The devastating milestone was announced on March 20 by Hawaii Gov. Josh Green, who said that damages could exceed $1 billion.
The cause is a type of winter storm called a “Kona Low,” which is southerly or southwesterly winds that bring moist air onto the islands. This is the second such storm that Hawaii has faced this month.
Green issued a statement on the morning of March 21, stating that no loss of life had yet been reported, although there were some serious injuries. But the back-to-back storms caused some areas to get between 40 and 50 inches of rain.
The first storm hit between March 10 and March 16 and delivered multiple feet of rain to parts of Kawai, Oahu, Maui, and Hawaii Island, as well as winds gusting 60–75 mph and even higher than 100 mph in some areas.
This second storm was expected to bring at least another 10 inches of rain to Oahu and more than a foot of rain to Maui between March 20 and 23.
Hawaii Emergency Management warned on March 21 that Maui and Oahu could still face dangerous rainbands capable of producing two to four inches per hour throughout the day, along with wind gusts reaching 45 mph.
“The storm will deliver another four to six inches of rain on Oahu throughout this weekend, but it’s now moving over to Maui, where we expect somewhere between likely four to eight inches, but as much as 10 to 12 in some areas,” the governor said.
He also said that the weather will also move over Molokai and the Big Island.
Flash flood warnings remain in effect for the entire island, which hosts military installations like Pearl Harbor and the state’s capital, Honolulu.
The National Weather Service’s Honolulu office has reported high flood waters closing and collapsing roadways, cutting off entire communities, and lifting homes off their foundations.
Honolulu mayor Rick Blangiardi said on March 20 that dozens, if not hundreds, of homes have been damaged in the storms, but no official damage assessment has been completed yet.
More than 230 people have been rescued, including 72 children and adults who were airlifted by the National Guard and Honolulu Fire Department from a youth camp retreat on Oahu’s west coast.
Ten people have been taken to the hospital to be treated for hypothermia.
More than 5,500 residents along the island’s North Shore were ordered to evacuate as the consistent rains threatened to cause the Wahiawa dam to fail, which would send rushing waters into their communities.
As of the morning of March 21, the dam remained intact, and some water levels had dropped. But Green later reported that water levels behind the dam were up to nearly 82 feet; 85 feet is the dam’s “threshold of great concern.”
Meanwhile, other Hawaiian islands also remain under flood threats through the weekend.
Maui’s Emergency Management Agency issued evacuation warnings for parts of the ʻIao Valley in Central Maui and parts of Kihei in South Maui because of a potential flooding threat, and it issued advisories for places in East Moloka’i, East Maui, and Lahaina. The agency clarified that neither warnings nor advisories were mandatory evacuation orders.
The Red Cross also deployed disaster assessment teams to Oahu, Maui, and the Island of Hawaii, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency announced that it was monitoring the situation.
“We are monitoring the severe flooding in Oahu and closely coordinating with [Gov. Josh Green] and [Hawaii Emergency Management Agency] as the state leads rescue and shelter operations,” FEMA said on X.
“Our teams on the island are embedded and ready to support if needed to help safeguard lives and communities.”
Fresh Justice Department files reveal a frantic document destruction operation at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan just days after Jeffrey Epstein’s 2019 death, adding fresh fuel to suspicions of elite protection and deep state obstruction.
This latest bombshell, drawn from a Miami Herald analysis of thousands of pages in the Epstein files, fits the pattern of irregularities we’ve exposed in our prior reporting.
Less than a week after Epstein was found dead inside his cell on August 10, 2019, an inmate was ordered to take bags of shredded material to the jail’s rear gate and throw them in a dumpster on Thursday, August 15, and again on Friday, August 16. The sheer volume struck him as unusual.
Bags of shredded documents at NY jail after Epstein’s death, officer tells FBI https://t.co/wMZlpaAzNl
“They are shredding everything,” the inmate told one of the guards, adding that he was asked to give the officials a hand with the shredding, with key records vanishing before review.
A corrections officer at the detention facility called the FBI’s National Threat Operations Center that same night, a Friday, at 6:28 p.m. to report that he had “never seen this amount of bags of shredded documents coming out to be put in the dumpster at the rear gate of MCC.”
The caller found it suspicious that an after-action team charged with investigating would be shredding huge amounts of paperwork with FBI, BOP and OIG officials in the building.
A back gate corrections officer was also troubled by what he witnessed. In a memo to investigators three days later, on Monday, August 19, he wrote: “I believe that this conduct may be inappropriate for [an] investigative team to be shredding paperwork related to the investigation and you may want to investigate why BOP employees are destroying records.”
“Can we take a look at the Dumpster ASAP to see if the paper is still there? Possible they didn’t dump it yet,” replied one of the federal agents.
But it was already too late. The trash was picked up that very morning.
Federal prosecutors discovered something else amiss: “We learned today that all institutional count slips for dates prior to August 10, 2019, which we requested on August 12, 2019, are apparently ‘missing.’”
The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York opened three separate probes: one into Epstein’s death, an obstruction-of-justice case involving the shredding of documents and possible misconduct by correctional officers, and a separate “Color of Law” corruption probe. Shockingly, these shifted from potential FBI criminal cases to the Justice Department’s Office of the Inspector General, which cannot prosecute.
Then-Attorney General William Barr immediately announced an “apparent suicide.” The medical examiner ruled the same, so Epstein’s cell was never treated as a crime scene. Critical evidence, including the fabric allegedly used in the hanging, was never properly examined.
Forensic pathologist Dr. Michael Baden, hired by Epstein’s estate and a veteran of over 20,000 autopsies, argued the neck injuries and ruptured capillaries in the eyes were more consistent with strangulation than suicide by hanging.
The Bureau of Prisons conducted a standard “After Action Review,” stating these teams “review such things as various background information for the inmate, health care and personality information, antecedent circumstances, and various other details surrounding the suicide. This team then draws conclusions and makes recommendations to the facility.”
Yet the rush to shred documents and the missing count slips tell a different story.
These developments expose the same bureaucratic stonewalling and selective transparency that has shielded powerful figures tied to Epstein’s network. While some claim simple incompetence, the coordinated destruction of records right under the noses of investigators screams intent to bury connections that could implicate elites.
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Amid Shortage Fears, ASP Isotopes Completes Drilling For Helium Project Ahead Of Schedule
Shortly after we posted a breakdown on the incoming helium supply disruption from Qatar for our premium subscribers, ASP Isotopes announced that they had completed the well drilling required for Phase 1 of the Renergen Helium Project approximately four months ahead of schedule. The achievement marks a key operational milestone at the Virginia Gas Project in South Africa, substantially reducing execution risks for the planned helium and LNG production ramp.
The stock spiked higher on the news…
Drilling operations, which restarted in April 2025 following bridge loan funding from ASP Isotopes ahead of the Renergen acquisition, have now achieved the required cumulative nameplate flow rate. Results from the Phase 1C exploration campaign show gas flow rates that meet or exceed previously estimated type curves. Some recent wells delivered flows up to 16 times higher than earlier ones, thanks to improved exploration techniques and reservoir modeling by a U.S.-based expert team.
“This marks a watershed moment for our plans for helium production at the Virginia Gas Project,” said Paul Mann, Executive Chairman and CEO of ASP Isotopes. “This result, together with the cumulative flow data from the broader campaign, demonstrate that the field is capable of sustaining the gas volumes required to operate the helium plant at efficient capacity once wells are tied into the plant”.
Next steps include tying the new wells into the processing plant over the coming months. Once production-ready, total gas flow is expected to support Phase 1 nameplate capacity. Production will ramp in line with customer demand and offtake agreements, with discussions ongoing for LNG and liquid helium supplies. Phase 1 targets output of 2,500 GJ per day of LNG and 58 MCF per day of liquid helium upon completion in 2026.
As we’ve thoroughly tracked, this progress builds directly on the company’s acquisition of Renergen. Following regulatory clearance reported here in December 2025, the deal integrated high-concentration helium assets into ASPI’s portfolio of critical materials. Helium serves not only as a vital input for semiconductors, quantum computing, medical imaging, and space applications but also as a carrier gas in the company’s proprietary isotope enrichment processes.
Readers will recall our earlier coverage of ASP Isotopes’ Silicon-28 supply contracts and U.S. radiopharmacy acquisition in October 2025, the private placement backed by funds linked to Eric and Donald Trump Jr. in November, and more recent advances including a major nuclear operator MOU and progress toward commercial uranium enrichment. This latest update on the helium front further diversifies ASPI’s exposure across nuclear fuel, medical isotopes, quantum materials, and now reliable helium supply amid global constraints, including disruptions tied to Qatar production.
Iran Says Talks With US Are ‘Fake News’ After Trump Threatens To ‘Just Keep Bombing’, Wants Hormuz To Be ‘Jointly Controlled’
Summary
Trump announces “productive” talks with Iran, “postpones” military strikes for 5 days
Iran Foreign Ministry + Parliament speaker say no talks have happened, after Trump said “speaking with a top person in Iran”, says will “just keep bombing” if Iran talks fail
Trump says Hormuz will be “jointly controlled”
Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, an Israeli official said. US says Israel “will be pleased”
Iran publishes broad list of potential regional targets: threatens “the entire region will go dark.”
IEA Executive Director warns of 1970s level oil shocks: “No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction.” Russia mediates in call with Tehran.
Market response: oil down, yields down, stocks up (but all off their kneejerk extremes)
“The market woke up to some potentially good news,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“But follow-through on any relief rally will likely require tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front. We’re still living in a headline-driven market.”
The prediction market odds of a ceasefire by April 30th are now above 50%…
“It is impossible to tell whether this signals genuine progress towards an off-ramp for the war, or Trump ‘zig-zagging’ to buy time and keep oil from breaking out towards $150,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“It should though offer at least a brief respite on rates – possibly more.”
Iran FM, Parliament Speaker: No Talks With US, “Fake News”
Finally a little ‘clarity’ from a top Iranian state source: Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says they had no talks with the US, via IRNA. “In recent days, friendly countries sent messages indicating US request to talks to end the war but Iran did not respond,” the statement says.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson affirms that the stance on Strait of Hormuz, conditions to end war did not change, according to more from IRNA. Importantly, state media further says the US tried to negotiate with Iran via intermediaries. Previously, Iranian officials have made clear they want to impose more costs on their attackers. Huge direct confirmation of Iran’s rejection/denial:
2/ No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 23, 2026
The question of whether Israel actually wants de-escalation remains a big one, as Israel has continued attacking the Islamic Republic even as Trump touts alleged indirect dialogue. This was Trump earlier in the day… some surprising words to say the least:
Reporter: “what about the Strait of Hormuz, who is going to be in control of that?”
President Trump Refutes Iran’s Denial of Talks, says Hormuz Will Be “Jointly Controlled”
Trump says US, Iran talks have “major points of agreement”.
President Trump responded to reporters questions about Iran’s denial of talks:
TRUMP: IRAN NEEDS BETTER PUBLIC RELATIONS PEOPLE
TRUMP: IRAN WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DEAL, WE WOULD LIKE A DEAL TOO
TRUMP: WE’LL GET TOGETHER WITH IRAN PROBABLY BY PHONE
TRUMP: SPEAKING WITH A TOP PERSON IN IRAN
TRUMP: PERSON WE’RE SPEAKING WITH IS NOT IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER
TRUMP: WE HAVE NOT HEARD FROM IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER
Trump then laid out what Washington wants:
TRUMP: WE WANT NO ENRICHMENT, WE ALSO WANT THE ENRICHED URANIUM
TRUMP: WE WANT TO SEE NO NUCLEAR BOMB OR WEAPON FOR IRAN
On Hormuz:
*TRUMP: HORMUZ WILL BE OPEN VERY SOON `IF IT WORKS’
*TRUMP: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BE JOINTLY CONTROLLED
On oil prices:
*TRUMP: OIL PRICES WILL ‘DROP LIKE A ROCK’ WHEN DEAL IS DONE
On funding:
TRUMP: THE $200B MILITARY FUNDING WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE
Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, according to an Israeli official, who asked Bloomberg not to be identified discussing private matters.
Israel was told about Trump’s social media post ahead of time, two officials said.
*TRUMP: WE JUST SPOKE WITH ISRAEL A LITTLE WHILE AGO
*TRUMP: ISRAEL WILL BE VERY HAPPY WITH WHAT WE HAVE ON IRAN
President Trump, asked about Iranian media denying talks with the US, says the most recent set of negotiations took place last night, Fox Business reports.
He said talks involved Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and their counterparts, adding a deal with Iran could be reached in five days or sooner.
Russia as Potential Mediator
As we reported, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shortly after Trump claimed Washington and Tehran were dialoguing. Russia moved to position itself as a mediator. Its Foreign Ministry said Lavrov called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, above all Iran,” in a call initiated by Tehran.
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the conflict with Iran is “not of their making” and is already causing major economic disruption. “Whatever your view of Iran, this war is not of their making,” he said. And the UK too has weighed in on Trump’s messaging, with a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer responding: “Any reports of productive talks are welcome.” The statement indicated: “We’ve always said that swift resolution to the war is in global interests and the Strait of Hormuz specifically needs to be reopened.”
Iran State Media Casts Trump As In Retreat, Who Warns US Can Just ‘Keep Bombing’
President Trump in Monday remarks to the press stated that the United States will “just keep bombing” if Iran talks fail.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry made clear there is “no dialogue” between Tehran and Washington despite President Trump’s early Monday assertion that weekend discussions were productive.
“Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington,” the ministry said, according to state broadcaster IRIB. It added that Trump’s statements were “part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans,” which could include occupying or blockading Iran’s critical Kharg Island.
Weekend major air strikes targeted the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran’s air force in western Iran:
Multiple major air strikes target the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran’s air force in western Iran today. The impact of the blast wave is visible at the end.
The Dezful air base is home to Iran’s F-5 fighter jets.
To recount, Trump said the US and Iran had held talks on the “complete and total resolution of hostilities” in the Middle East and that he would delay attacks on Iranian power plants by five days after “productive conversations” with Tehran. Iranian media has cast Trump’s remarks as a retreat: “Fearing a response from Iran, Trump backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum,” IRIB said.
Iranian media outlets to issue some kind of response/ reaction so far are Fars News, and Tasnim – both considered to have close ties with the IRGC.
Irna, or IRIB, the more traditional govt-linked outfits, yet to issue any comment.
Amid the headline pingpong, Yields are rebounding higher, along with oil as stocks retreat from earlier gains…
So who’s lying, and is the truth somewhere inbetween the bombastic headlines?
“This feels very similar to Trump’s tariff playbook — delay, create optionality, and ultimately step back,” said Manish Singh, chief investment officer at Crossbridge Capital.
“If cooler heads prevail, the outcome here could be a shift toward negotiation rather than confrontation.”
The key now will be how Donald Trump takes the Iranian response.
“The tone is more upbeat now. But it would be naïve to assume the situation will now be resolved to the satisfaction of all the main combatants and victims of hostilities,” said Bloomberg macro strategist, Simon White.
“Further, negative effects from higher energy prices are now baked in. Stock dynamics will continue to remain negative while an abundance of potential pitfalls remain ahead.”
There’s a chance he will find the situation embarrassing and that matters to markets because he would be more likely to swing back towards a more belligerent stance.
Israeli Strikes A Mere Hour After Trump Announced US Halt
Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Iran about an hour after Trump announced the halt to US attacks. “The Air Force has begun, a short while ago, another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran,” the Israeli Air Force said on X.
Various reports suggest that Trump waving an olive branch will not be received well by Israeli leadership. “For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the Israeli cabinet, anything but escalation and complete regime change in Iran is a catastrophe, says Akiva Eldar, an Israeli author and former columnist for the Haaretz newspaper, referring to how Trump’s announcement of talks with Iran was received in Israel,” Al Jazeera writes.
“Trump going back to negotiations means that Israel will not be able to remove the Iranian nuclear threat, which has become Netanyahu’s flag, his claim to fame,” Eldar told the outlet.
There continues to be evidence of severe damage and destruction in Tehran and across the Islamic Republic:
Just ahead of Trump’s decision to delay further strikes, Tehran threatened to expand attacks on US and regional infrastructure. The weekend saw Iranian military spokesman Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari warn Iran would target all US -used fuel, energy, technology, and desalination infrastructure in the region if its own energy sites were hit.
Trump “Postpones” Military Strikes On Iran for 5 Days, Citing “Productive” Talks
Market sentiment has flipped dramatically optimistic this morning just after 7am ET, following a post by President Trump on his TruthSocial feed that says due to “very good and productive conversations” on a “total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East, the US will postpone “any and all military strikes” against Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days…
The front-running of his self-imposed ultimatum deadline (around 7pmET tonight) has caught market participants off guard. Iran hasn’t confirmed the talks but, if they do, this is the first time we’re seeing any kind of opening for an off-ramp to end the war.
Iran has repeatedly said it wasn’t looking to sit down with the US.
There has been no comment from Israeli officials.
The reaction to Trump’s statement – as you might expect – is a crash lower in crude…
…though still well above pre-war levels (as traders are still pricing in a prolonged hit from higher energy prices, even if there is relief following the latest headlines)…
TACOs came early this week… or is it Mission Accomplished?
Iranian officials haven’t yet commented on Trump’s statement, but the headline banner on state TV sets the tone: “US President Retreats After Iran’s Decisive Threats.”
Billionaire hedge fund manager, Dan Loeb had some thoughts…
An oil trader friend of mine shared this Arabic saying.
On Monday, Iran’s Supreme Defense Council threatened to deploy “various types of naval mines” across the Persian Gulf if its coasts or islands are attacked, according to Tasnim. The warning followed Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after which he said the US would strike all Iranian power plants.
“The entire Persian Gulf will be in conditions similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long period of time,” the council said, according to Tasnim. It added that “non-hostile countries” could transit the strait “through direct coordination with Iran.”
Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Mehr news wrote: “In case of the slightest attack on the electricity infrastructure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the entire region will go dark.” Here’s the target list it shared:
Saudi Arabia
The Village (near Al-Khobar): gas power plant (4,000+ MW)
Ras Tanura (Sharqiya Province): major oil and gas facility / power infrastructure
United Arab Emirates
Barakah (Al Dhafra, Abu Dhabi): nuclear power plant (~5,600 MW)
Jebel Ali (South Dubai): gas power and desalination complex (multi-GW capacity)
Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park (Dubai): large-scale solar power project
Qatar
Ras Laffan (north Qatar): gas power plant (one of the largest in Qatar)
Umm Al Houl (south of Doha): gas power + desalination plant (multi-GW capacity)
Kuwait
Al-Zour South: oil and gas power plant
Al-Zour North: combined-cycle power plant (multi-GW capacity)
Shaqaya Energy Park (west Kuwait): solar and wind renewable energy complex
State media published this graphic:
Hormuz Crisis Could Surpass Oil Shocks of 1970s
…if there’s no off-ramp soon – that’s according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. Here’s what he said according to the Associated Press:
The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war.
“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” Fatih Birol said at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra on Monday.
The crisis in the Middle East, he said, has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war.
Ship traffic through the strait has dropped from about 100 vessels a week before the war to seven, according to Kpler. Iran has attacked multiple commercial vessels since the US-Israeli assault began, causing fires, damage, and at least one death, and has laid mines in the waterway.
War in Lebanon Expands
On the Lebanon front, Israel said a civilian was killed near the Lebanese border died from friendly fire, not a Hezbollah attack. The Israeli military said initial findings showed Ofer Moskowitz was killed by artillery fire intended to support troops in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah had earlier claimed a rocket strike killed the civilian in the Israeli town of Misgav Am; however, the Israeli military says it is investigating whether its own forces were responsible.
Israel’s defense minister has meanwhile ordered expanded destruction of bridges and homes in southern Lebanon, raising concerns about a deeper, entrenched buffer zone. Over one million people have fled their homes and over 1,000 have been killed, according to the Lebanese government. Israeli officials warned residents across large parts of southern Lebanon to evacuate or face danger as a ground operation continues, which they say is aimed at protecting northern Israeli communities.
Pre-Trump Overnight News
And while we wait, let’s take a closer look at global markets prior to the Trump headline, they were all sharply led on the downside by KOSPI which plunged 6.5%. China – SHCOMP and SHPROP were lower by 350bps as well with news outlets highlighting China as a % of global GDP is on the decline. Europe holding on a relative basis but major indices (were) down ~200bps. In commodities, European gas continues reverses previously up 5% to $65 to now down 5% to $55 – still essentially doubling vs. a month ago. Crude (was) steady but elevated with WTI approaching $99 (now $85 post headlines … ).
Precious metals (were) weak with gold off 500bps to $4,270 (now approaching flattish). Yields remain the other part of this difficult equation with the 10-year up to 4.43% (now 4.38%) highest levels since July, breaking out above levels earlier in 2026 despite additional rate cuts now potentially back on the table in market expectations. Dollar following with DXY above $100. Bitcoin flattish but closer to local lows $68.6k (now $71.6k). Macro trading likely to dominate trading & price action today, particularly in light on quiet micro backdrop this morning. The only data on deck is the Chicago Fed and Construction Spending. On the data front, we’ll get US construction spending, Eurozone consumer confidence and Japanese CPI later this morning. Fed’s Miran speaks at 8:45am.
Looking at premarket movers away from the non stop newsflow, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +0.5%, Alphabet +0.6%, Amazon +1.8%, Meta +1.4%, Nvidia +2.1%, Microsoft +1%, Apple +1.6%). Energy stocks are falling and airline stocks are rising after Trump said he told US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) soars 16% after the drug developer provided maintenance data from a mid-stage trial that showed its experimental therapy deepened responses in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.
DraftKings (DKNG) gains 8% and Flutter (FLUT) rises 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that US senators are set to introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports bets on prediction markets.
Synopsys (SNPS) gains 3% after people familiar said activist investor Elliott Investment Management has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the chip-design software maker and plans to push for changes.
Valvoline rises 2% after Stifel raised the recommendation to buy, saying a recent selloff has created a buying opportunity for the automotive services company as concerns about more expensive base oil and gasoline are largely priced into the stock.
In other news, BBG reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities. UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the Iran war could force him to pare back spending, although it won’t fundamentally alter the bank’s overall strategy. Owners of luxury brands ranging from Gucci to Fendi and Bulgari opened more stores in Europe last year despite a slowdown in the wider sector.
Trump’s comments sparked a sharp turnaround in markets after the two sides escalated rhetoric over the weekend, with hours left before a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices have fueled fears that central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy.
“Assuming this holds and there is a path toward a cessation of hostilities, we can expect stabilization in equities, panic liquidation, and crucially, an unwinding of some of the very aggressive rate hikes which have been priced into markets,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY.
Since it is pointless to discuss where stocks are since moves are +/- 1-2% every minute, here is a quick recap of …
Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of talks with Iran to end the war. Iran’s semi-official local media denied any talks had taken place: BBG
The Trump administration is telling foreign officials and others that it will not reschedule a summit between the president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping until the Iran war ends. Politico
Donald Trump’s new tariff plans risk getting bogged down in protracted legal challenges as the president relies on obscure laws to wage his trade war after the top court in the US ruled many of his previous duties illegal. FT
The BoJ is laying the groundwork for tweaks to its policy language in April, keeping alive the chance of a near-term interest rate hike as the weak yen and Middle East conflict pile inflationary pressures on the economy.
Japanese companies have agreed to raise wages by more than 5% for a third consecutive year, early results from annual labor talks showed on Monday, reflecting sustained gains in pay that policymakers see as key to fostering durable economic growth. RTRS
A Cuban official said the country is preparing for a possible military assault as Trump increases the economic pressure on the country. BBG
LaGuardia Airport was closed until at least 2 p.m. after an Air Canada Express plane collided with a fire truck shortly after landing. Two pilots died in the crash. BBG
Truckers are being “crushed” by the surge in diesel expense, and US consumers will soon feel the increase as the whole supply chain is forced to adjust prices higher to maintain profitability. WSJ
Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most awkward Federal Reserve leadership transitions in decades. The economy has grown more complicated than when he promised interest-rate cuts last year while campaigning for President Trump to nominate him for the job. Even before the war in Iran sent energy prices higher, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was heading in the wrong direction. The war threatens to push inflation higher still in the coming months, and investors now view rate increases to be more likely than cuts this year. WSJ
ARE WE OVERSOLD? That has been one of the most frequent questions this week – and there is not a ton of reassuring evidence just yet. A tactical bounce is clearly possible given recent price action, but the broader setup does not yet point to capitulation. Locally, only ~14% of S&P stocks have hit oversold levels. For context, that figure reached over 50% in April ’25 and north of 40% during Q3 ’22: Goldman
OpenAI Lures Private-Equity Firms With 17.5% Guaranteed Returns As AI Rivals Race For Enterprise Deals
OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, is offering private-equity firms a more generous financial package than rival Anthropic as the two artificial-intelligence companies court buyout shops to create joint ventures aimed at raising fresh capital and accelerating the rollout of enterprise AI products.
To lure PE firms, OpenAI is promising investors a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, a figure significantly above what is typical for preferred equity instruments, according to people familiar with the discussions who spoke with Reuters. The company is also providing early access to its latest AI models as it seeks commitments from firms including TPG Inc. and Advent International Corp., the people said. OpenAI has recently intensified its focus on corporate customers, an area where Anthropic has long held an edge.
Anthropic’s parallel effort offered no such guaranteed returns, the people said.
The timing of these overtures is notable. Just weeks ago, both companies became embroiled in a high-profile dispute with the Pentagon – with Anthropic walking away from a potential $200 million Defense Department contract after insisting on being the final arbiter over safeguards preventing its Claude AI from being used in fully autonomous weapons systems or mass surveillance of American citizens. The Pentagon responded by labeling Anthropic a “supply chain risk” – an unprecedented move against a U.S. technology company – blacklisting it from federal agencies and posing a risk to industry partners who also work with the Pentagon. President Trump directed all government entities to cease using Anthropic’s tools. The company has sued over this.
Hours after the deal fell apart on Feb 28, OpenAI announced its own agreement to supply AI tools for the Pentagon’s classified systems. The deal, initially criticized as opportunistic, triggered internal dissent at OpenAI, including the resignation of a senior robotics executive, and a consumer backlash that caused a surge in ChatGPT uninstalls among ‘I bought this Tesla before Elon went crazy’ types. OpenAI later amended the terms to strengthen guardrails.
And apparently there’s no such thing as bad news, as Anthropic’s stance earned it a surge in popularity: Its Claude app climbed to the top of U.S. download charts, with sign-ups hitting record levels.
The Race Is On
The joint ventures would enable both companies to rapidly deploy customized AI across hundreds of established companies owned by private-equity firms, creating deep integration that boosts customer retention at scale.
“There’s a big race to lock in as much enterprise, as many desks as possible,” said Matt Kropp at Boston Consulting Group’s AI unit. “Once a customized AI model is integrated into a company’s systems, switching becomes much harder.”
That said, some buyout firms have passed on the deals – citing concerns about economics, flexibility, and profit. Thoma Bravo LP opted out after internal reviews, with Managing Partner Orlando Bravo questioning the long-term profit profile, people familiar said.
Skeptics argue large PE firms already have direct access to the AI providers and question whether the ventures deliver enough incremental value. Others see pressure on buyout shops to showcase AI strategies to their own investors.
Still, discussions continue with several firms expected to take smaller stakes. OpenAI is in advanced talks to raise about $4 billion for its venture at a roughly $10 billion pre-money valuation, with participants including TBG, Bain Capital and Brookfield Asset Management.Anthropic has approached Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman and Permira for its enterprise-focused push.
Key Events This Week: PMIs, Productivity And Consumer Sentiment
As has become customary for Monday, we have seen a dramatic surge in risk assets (3rd Monday in a row) on what at least superficially appears to be de-escalation after Trump announced strikes against Iran’s power plant would be delayed by 5 days as a result of talks with Iran, talks which at least Iran’s domestic news sources have so far denied.
And the market lurches from headline to headline, it feels somewhat trivial to focus on the week ahead data calendar, but there will nevertheless be interest in the global flash PMIs for March, due tomorrow. As DB’s Jim Reid notes, these surveys cover the period through roughly the end of last week and should therefore be heavily influenced by developments in the conflict. Elsewhere, inflation indicators are due in the UK, Japan and Australia, although these will now be quite backward looking. The German IFO survey on Wednesday may provide another timely read on sentiment, and Lagarde’s speech the same day will also be closely watched. The week concludes with the final March reading of the University of Michigan US consumer sentiment survey, which incorporates an additional couple of weeks of responses from the initial reading. DB’s economists expect a modest downward revision to 55.0 from the preliminary 55.5 as more respondents reflect heightened geopolitical uncertainty related to Iran. More important for policymakers, however, will be the inflation expectations components. Both one year and five to ten year expectations have historically tracked energy prices closely, making them particularly relevant in the current environment.
Overall the data calendar is light in the US, and even if it were busier it would likely pale in significance relative to events in the Middle East. On the policy front, scheduled Fed appearances are limited, with only three officials due to speak. The first comes from Vice Chair Jefferson, who is set to deliver an outlook speech on Thursday. He is likely to broadly echo the themes laid out by Chair Powell at the post meeting press conference, where Powell placed greater emphasis on inflation dynamics and the outlook than on potential labor market weakness, giving the discussion a distinctly hawkish tone. Inflation, rather than employment, clearly remains the Fed’s primary concern at this stage of the cycle.
Any divergence by Jefferson from Powell’s messaging would more likely be aimed at tempering expectations of imminent tightening rather than endorsing them, particularly given the sharp repricing from roughly 62bps of cuts before the strikes on Iran to around 7bps of hikes this morning (although that number has also reversed after this morning’s newsflow). The same logic applies to remarks expected on Friday from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, both of whom are non voters this year and are also scheduled to deliver outlook speeches. In markets where incoming data is increasingly backward looking, there is limited value in dwelling on the remainder of the week ahead calendar, which is set out day by day at the end as usual.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday March 23
Data: US February Chicago Fed national activity index, January construction spending, Japan first survey of shunto results, Eurozone March consumer confidence
Central banks: ECB’s Escriva and Lane speak
Other: UK PM Starmer faces the House of Commons’ Liaison committee
Tuesday March 24
Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone flash March PMIs, US March Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Japan February national CPI, EU27 February new car registrations,
Central banks: ECB’s Kocher, Sleijpen, Cipollone and Lane speak
Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)
Other: General election in Denmark
Wednesday March 25
Data: US February import price index, export price index, Q4 current account balance, UK February CPI, RPI, PPI, January house price index, Japan February PPI services, Germany March Ifo survey, Australia February CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Rehn and Kocher speak, BoE’s Greene speaks, BoJ minutes of the January meeting
Earnings: Jefferies, PDD Holdings
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
Thursday March 26
Data: US March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Germany April GfK consumer confidence, France March business confidence, consumer confidence, Italy March consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, Eurozone February M3
Central banks: Norges Bank decision, Fed’s Jefferson speaks, ECB’s Guindos and Muller speak, BoE’s Breeden, Taylor and Greene speak, BoC’s Rogers speaks
Data: US March Kansas City Fed services activity, UK March GfK consumer confidence, February retail sales, China February industrial profits
Central banks: ECB consumer expectations survey, Fed’s Daly and Paulson speak
Earnings: Carnival, BYD
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the productivity and costs report on Tuesday and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Miran, Barr, and Cook, and Vice Chair Jefferson.
Monday, March 23
08:45 AM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will appear on Bloomberg TV. On February 26, Miran said, “Four cuts [in 2026] I think are appropriate. I’d rather get them sooner than later.” Additionally, on March 6, Miran said, “Labor demand is not strong enough because monetary policy is too tight… I think the labor market could use some more support from monetary policy.”
10:00 AM Construction spending, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%)
Tuesday, March 24
08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q4 final (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.8%, last +2.8%); Unit labor costs, Q4 final (GS +4.3%, consensus +3.4%, last +2.8%): We estimate that nonfarm productivity growth will be revised down by 1.1pp to +1.7% quarterly annualized in the second release for 2025Q4. Since 2019Q4, labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 2.2%, or 2.0-2.1% after adjusting for measurement distortions in the productivity statistics, a much stronger pace than the 1.5% average pace in the pre-pandemic cycle.
09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 51.2, last 51.6): S&P Global US services PMI, March preliminary (consensus 52.0, last 51.7)
06:30 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on the economic outlook and community development at the National Community Investment Conference in Phoenix. Speech text is expected. On February 17, Barr said, “Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time.” He also said, “With very low levels of job creation and also a low firing rate, there seems to be a tentative balance in labor supply and demand. But it is a delicate balance, and that means that the labor market could be especially vulnerable to negative shocks.”
Wednesday, March 25
08:30 AM Import price index, February (consensus +0.6%, last +0.2%); Export price index, February (consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%)
04:10 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will participate in a conversation on digital assets at the 2026 Digital Asset Summit in New York.
Thursday, March 26
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 21 (GS 205k, consensus 210k, last 205k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 14 (consensus 1,853k, last 1,857k): We estimate that initial jobless claims were unchanged around 205k. Initial claims remain below their average level in 2025H2 and the layoff rate edged down in January, suggesting that nationwide layoffs remain low despite the increase in alternative layoff measures in Q4 of last year.
04:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on financial stability at the Yale School of Management. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On February 4, Cook said, “[Recent] readings indicate that progress on inflation essentially stalled in 2025… After nearly five years of above-target inflation, it is essential that we maintain our credibility by returning to a disinflationary path and achieving our target in the relatively near future.” She also said, “The labor market is roughly in balance, but I am highly attentive to developments, knowing it can shift quickly.”
06:30 PM Fed Governor Miran speaks: Fed Governor Stephen Miran will speak on the Fed’s balance sheet at the Economic Club of Miami. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
07:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at the Dallas Fed. On February 6, Jefferson said “I am cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook. I see signs suggesting that the labor market is stabilizing, that inflation can return to a path toward our 2% objective, and that sustainable economic growth will continue.”
07:10 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in an event at the Brookings Institution. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
Friday, March 27
10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March final (GS 52.0, consensus 54.0, last 55.5): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, March final (GS 3.5%, last 3.2%)
11:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly will give introductory remarks at the San Francisco Fed’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference. On March 6, Daly said, “We really have to keep our eye on the labor market. But we also have inflation printing above our target and oil prices rising. How long it will last we don’t know. But both our goals are at risk now and we have to keep our eye on both.”
11:40 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed president Anna Paulson will give remarks at the San Francisco Fed’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.
Nearing Psychological Gas Price Level Where Consumers Drive Less
The latest AAA data show the national average price for regular gasoline at the pump is now just four cents below the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon mark. This month’s surge in retail fuel prices (gasoline and diesel) marks the largest increase on record and is delivering a nasty shock to the pocketbooks of cash-strapped consumers.
Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note that when fuel prices spike to these “psychological threshold” levels, above $3 and approaching $4 a gallon, consumers tend to drive less and fill up their tanks less frequently.
“Historically, when retail gas prices increase (especially above the $3/gal psychological threshold, although that’s been rebased higher), consumers make the concerted decision to drive less, don’t always fill up their tanks (i.e., lower fill rates),” Herzog told clients on Friday.
But Herzog pointed back to history, noting that the real demand destruction for drivers comes when gasoline prices at the pump reach $ 5 a gallon.
She noted, “Further, we recognize that, in times of a significantly rising fuel-price environment, consumers may opt to trade down the fuel-price spectrum (i.e., from premium to regular).”
The vertical move in gasoline and diesel this month, according to AAA data, is record-setting. Gas prices at the pump have jumped nearly 33% on the month, far outpacing the Russia-Ukraine invasion in 2022 or the Iraq war, with data dating back to 2005. The shock here will certainly leave some cash-strapped drivers dialing back miles on the road.
Diesel spike! Small businesses are warning of shock (read here).
Herzog offered a warning that elevated “retail prices at the pump matter” because “low-income households spend 3x more of their incomes on gas vs. the average household, and broadly speaking, c-stores over-index to low-income consumers.”
Let’s not forget that pressure on pocketbooks from a fuel-pump shock may weigh on consumer sentiment if the spike proves not to be temporary. However, Trump headlines Monday morning may suggest the administration is finding an offramp to the conflict.
