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Behind Election Rhetoric, Democrats Utilize Little Known Strategy To Win 2024

Behind Election Rhetoric, Democrats Utilize Little Known Strategy To Win 2024

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The upcoming election will likely be less about changing voters’ minds and more about rousing the faithful and getting them to the polls.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock, Stock Photo)

America’s students, who according to an analysis by Tufts University helped elect Biden in key swing states in 2020, could prove to be pivotal in this regard, both as targets and as foot soldiers in the party’s get-out-the-vote drives.

Meanwhile, a lawsuit currently moving through Wisconsin courts appears to provide a case study for how these campaigns translate into election wins for the Democratic Party.

In February, Vice President Kamala Harris highlighted that the government is paying college students to register voters.

“We have been doing work to promote voter participation for students. And, for example we … now allow students to get paid through Federal Work Study to register people and to be nonpartisan poll workers,” she said.

Ms. Harris said the Biden administration has been able “to charge federal agencies with doing the work that they rightly can do to inform the American people of their right to vote.”

Paying students to canvass is the latest component of an initiative originated under former President Barack Obama to increase student voting. Initially this was carried out in conjunction with private nonprofit organizations such as Civic Nation.

Founded with the support of President Obama, his wife, and Joe Biden in 2015, and led by former Obama staffers, Civic Nation now boasts a partnership with 1,700 colleges and universities and a reported budget of more than $16 million in 2020.

Its stated goal is “fighting for gender equity, social justice, and more,” and it leads the “All In Campus Democracy Challenge” that engages with university administrators to get them to sign up student voters.

All In runs school get-out-the-vote competitions in all 50 states. According to its website, it has partnered with 994 institutions and signed up more than 10 million students. As part of the “challenge,” schools agree to share student voting data.

Civic Nation receives much of its funding from a network of progressive charitable funds managed by Arabella Advisors, which oversees a network of nonprofit vehicles that finance left-wing political campaigns.

Under the Biden administration, however, the student get-out-the-vote campaign is now being run with federal funds, spearheaded by the U.S. Department of Education.

Fayetteville State University student NAACP chapter president Ty Hamer (R) leads a call as students walk to vote in Fayetteville, N.C., on March 3, 2020. (Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images)

Executive Order Backed by Federal Funds

President Biden’s Executive Order 14019 compels all government agencies to take part in a nationwide effort to register voters and includes a program by the Department of Education (DOE) that pressures educational institutions to demonstrate that they have signed up students to vote.

Following the issuance of EO14019, the DOE sent schools a “Dear Colleague Letter” to “remind institutions of higher education of the federal requirements regarding voting that are tied to participation in federal student aid programs.”

The letter, according to the DOE, also clarifies when Federal Work Study dollars can be used “for nonpartisan civic engagement work.”

According to a 2022 report by Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), “youth ages 18–29 are the only age group in which a strong majority supported Democrats.”

Up until 2002, the youth vote was evenly split between the two parties, the report stated, but since that time young people have shifted sharply in favor Democrats by what is now a 28-point margin. The get-out-the-vote campaigns do not target all young voters equally, however. Instead, they focus their efforts on the most reliable Democrat voters—those who attend college.

Students walk past a polling site at the University of Pittsburgh during the midterm election, in Pittsburgh, Pa., on Nov. 8, 2022. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

A 2020 survey by Pew Research found that the single largest voter gap in favor of Democrats was white college-educated women, of whom 62 percent voted Democrat versus 34 percent who voted Republican. Conversely, non-college white men favored the Republican Party by a margin of 32 points, with 62 percent for Republicans and 30 percent for Democrats.

Democrats increasingly dominate in party identification among white college graduates,” the report states. “Republicans increasingly dominate in party affiliation among white non-college voters.”

Students Vote Like Their Teachers

A 2020 report by the National Association of Scholars found that Democrat-registered professors outnumbered Republican-registered professors by a ratio of 10-to-1, a gap that has widened from 4.5-to-1 in 1999.

“Research since World War II has consistently found overwhelmingly left-oriented political attitudes and ideological self-identification among college and university faculty,” the Association states. “It has also found overwhelming support for the Democratic Party.”

The other factor that makes the college vote so attractive to Democrats is the location of college students in key swing states, where a few thousand votes can deliver a win in a tight election. For this reason it may not be coincidental that the youth turnout rate has been much higher in swing states than non-swing states.

The CIRCLE report found that among the highest states for youth voter turnout were Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Nevada, and Georgia. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, for example, 36.5 percent and 31.7 percent of residents under the age of 29 voted in 2022.

This contrasts sharply with neighboring non swing states such as West Virginia (14.2 percent), Delaware (18.7 percent), New Jersey (20.6 percent), Ohio (21.6 percent), Connecticut (21.4 percent), New York (20.7 percent), and Massachusetts (18.5 percent). Oregon, a reliable blue state, bucked this trend with 35.5 percent youth turnout.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 17:40

Oil & Gold Soar On Week, But ‘Good Data’ Wrecks Rate-Cut Hopes, Slamming Stocks & Bonds

Oil & Gold Soar On Week, But ‘Good Data’ Wrecks Rate-Cut Hopes, Slamming Stocks & Bonds

It was a ‘good’ week for macro data…

Source: Bloomberg

…but ‘soft’ survey data remains mired in depression as the ‘aggregate’ hard data holds strong…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, good news is bad news for the doves and rate-cut expectations for 2024 are down (particularly after today’s big payrolls headline beat) well below three cuts expected by the ‘median’ Fed dot…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the odds of a cut in June have tumbled back to a coin-toss…

Source: Bloomberg

And to rub salt in the wounds of the doves, inflation expectations are back on the rise bigly…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks initially down-pumped on the hjobs data (good is bad) then went into their usual BTFD insanity, ramping Nasdaq to unchanged vs Wenesday’s close (erasing yesterday’s losses). However, within minutes of that FedSpeak spoiled the party again:

1310ET *FED’S BOWMAN: INFLATION PROGRESS HAS STALLED, WON’T BE COMFORTABLE CUTTING UNTIL DISINFLATION RETURNS

And stocks started back lower…

On the week, all the majors were red with Small Caps and The Dow the worst performers. This was the S&P 500’s worst week since the first week of the year…

MAG7 stocks managed to eke out very modest gains as a basket on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks soared this week (to a record high) – the only sector to end green – while Healthcare and Real Estate lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX saw its biggest weekly surge since August 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were also ugly on the week, led by the long-end…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield pushed up to 2024 YTD highs and closed at its highest yield since November…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended a choppy week modestly lower after spiking initially today into the green…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, since The BoJ unleashed chaos in JPY-land, USDJPY has gone too sleep. @Bespoke notes that this is the smallest 13-day range for USDJPY since 1980…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold had another huge week, rallying to a new record high above $2330 (spot). Gold is up 9 of the last 10 days and 6 of the last 7 weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is screaming that something bad is coming (inferring negative real yields – something we have only seen deep in crises)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices also surged, with Brent topping $90 and WTI topping $87.50 this week, as gepolitical tensions turned the rhetoric up to ’11’…

Source: Bloomberg

And strength in oil meant gasoline and pump prices rose too…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was down on the week, but found support at $65,000 and bounced back amid a re-ignition of net ETF inflows…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum underperformed on the week, breaking down to its weakest against bitcoin since May 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, with all the macro and geopolitical headlines, everyone seems to have forgotten about the whole premise for this rally was AI and wunderstock NVDA which is down 11% from its record highs one-month ago…

Source: Bloomberg

History rhymes…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 16:00

Credit Card Debt Surges To New All-Time High, Just As Card APR Rates Hit Fresh Record

Credit Card Debt Surges To New All-Time High, Just As Card APR Rates Hit Fresh Record

Just when you thought US consumers had finally learning their lesson, and had stopped buying stuff they can’t afford with money they don’t have… we got the latest consumer credit data which collapsed that particular thesis in a millisecond.

After two months ago we saw an unprecedented halt to growth in both revolving credit (i.e., credit card) growth – which rose by just $1 billion (since revised to $4 billion) – as well as non-revolving (i.e., auto and student loans) which practically actually shrunk by $1 billion – in January things were seemingly back to the American normal, as total consumer credit surged by $19.5BN, compared to the $0.9BN downward revised December print (from $1.561BN originally), driven by a powerful rebound in both credit card and auto loans. Things then continued on autopilot: moments ago the Fed reported that in February consumer credit rose by $14.125BN, roughly flat from the downward revised $17.684BN in January, driven by a powerful surge in revolving credit even as growth in non-revolving credit unexpectedly faded.

Starting at the top, revolving credit in February rose by $11.3 billion, up from an upward revised $8.6 billion…

… pushing total revolving credit to a record $1.339 trillion, which as shown in the chart below means that the trendline from the pre-covid era has now been surpassed, while the savings rate is at an all time low.

Meanwhile, on the non-revolving credit side, “number also go up“, but by much less, rising by just $2.8 billion, down from the $9.1 billion increase in January, and hitting a record high $3.712 trillion after unexpectedly declining by $1 billion in December.

The latest acceleration in credit card debt comes as a surprise for several reasons, not least of all that according to the Fed, the average rate across all commercial banks on all credit card amounts just hit a new record high of 21.59% in Q1 ’24, despite the drop in rates observed in late 2023, which is a vivid reminder that while banks are happy to hike credit card rates, they rarely if ever cut them.

Yet with consumers ever more strapped for actual cash and equity, as the personal savings rate in the US has collapsed from over 5% to 3.6% – the lowest since 2022 – in just a few months…

… there is only so much more credit card maxing out that can take place before reality finally sets in, although with an election on the horizon – one which ensures that any credit-card fueled spending must be encouraged – don’t be surprised if the White House instructs banks to just ignore soaring delinquency and charge-off rates…

… as discussed previously in “These Are The 5 Charts The FDIC Does Not Want You Paying Attention To”, only for the hammer to fall on the first day of Trump’s new presidency.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 15:54

Ford To “Re-Time” New EV Production, Expand Hybrid Production

Ford To “Re-Time” New EV Production, Expand Hybrid Production

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Today Ford announces a two-year delay, “retiming” until 2027, on new EV models scheduled for 2025. In addition. Ford will focus on a full line of hybrids.

Retiming Press Announcement

Please consider Ford’s Press Announcement on retiming and hybrid production.

Ford Motor Company said today it is retiming the launch of upcoming electric vehicles at its Oakville, Ontario, assembly plant while continuing to build out an advanced industrial system to produce its next-generation electric vehicles, including greenfield construction and conversion of existing assembly plants.

The company continues to invest in a broad set of EV programs as it works to build a full EV line-up. These initiatives support the development of a differentiated and profitably growing EV business over time while Ford serves customers with the right mix of gas, hybrid and electric vehicles based on demand today

Preparations continue for the market launch of Ford’s all-new three-row electric vehicles at the assembly complex in Oakville, Ontario, which the company said it will re-time to 2027 from 2025. The additional time will allow for the consumer market for three-row EVs to further develop and enable Ford to take advantage of emerging battery technology, with the goal to provide customers increased durability and better value.

Ohio Assembly Plant

Additionally, Ford continues its expansion of Ohio Assembly Plant in Avon Lake to produce an all-new electric commercial vehicle for Ford Pro customers beginning mid-decade. [If that’s not timely, what is?]

BlueOval City

The creation of the BlueOval City campus – Ford’s new advanced auto production complex that includes the Tennessee Electric Vehicle Center assembly plant – is progressing on track. In addition to paint shop and vehicle assembly equipment, installation is also underway for nearly 4,000 tons of stamping equipment that will produce the sheet metal stampings for Ford’s next all-new electric truck. 

Ford plans to begin customer deliveries of the new truck in 2026 and gradually ramp up production to help assure quality. [Hint: Don’t by the first ones].

Hybrids

Ford continues to invest in a broad set of EV programs as it works to build a full EV line-up. In parallel, Ford is expanding its hybrid electric vehicle offerings. By the end of the decade, the company expects to offer hybrid powertrains across its entire Ford Blue lineup in North America.

Tesla’s Deliveries Drop for First Time Since 2020

Meanwhile, please note Tesla’s Deliveries Drop for First Time Since 2020, It’s Demand Not Supply

Tesla’s heydays of surging demand growth for Teslas is over. Competition is increasing and relative demand growth, if not absolute demand growth, is falling.

If Tesla can scale up semi production that would be a big boost. But Elon Musk has been promising 50,000 semis a year, every year for four years and has delivered a grand total of 100.

Tesla has a drought of new products and competition is catching up everywhere. It’s autonomous driving features are an outright joke. More importantly, they are a huge safety risk.

Elon Muck said he would be producing 50,000 EV semis a year. That was in 2017. As of December 21, 2023, the Tesla Semi Fleet Is Almost 100 Trucks

Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Charging Stations

One of the things holding up use of electric semis is expense. A second is the number of charging stations.

Let’s discuss some of the obvious flaws in Biden’s latest mandates that will require EVs to account for 60% of new urban delivery trucks and 25% of long-haul tractor sales by 2032.

Image from the US Department of Energy, annotations in blue by Mish.

Please note there are 4 Million Semis on the Road, Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Charging Stations

And Electrek says Tesla’s giga factory is only about 30% complete and Tesla hasn’t expanded the facility for years.

After years, there is finally some movement at the giga factory. Electrek thinks it may be work on a parking lot.

But please take heart. For will produce an all-new electric commercial vehicle for Ford Pro customers beginning mid-decade.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 15:05

Hundreds Of 99 Cents Only Stores Liquidated, Failed Bidenomics & Retail Theft Blamed 

Hundreds Of 99 Cents Only Stores Liquidated, Failed Bidenomics & Retail Theft Blamed 

A combination of failed ‘Bidenomics,’ i.e., elevated inflation, disastrous progressive social justice reforms that ignited a tsunami of retail theft nationwide, and snarled supply chains left over from the Covid era have led to the demise of “99 Cents Only” stores nationwide, which began the liquidation process on Friday. 

“This was an extremely difficult decision and is not the outcome we expected or hoped to achieve,” interim company CEO Mike Simoncic said in a statement.

Simoncic said, “Unfortunately, the last several years have presented significant and lasting challenges in the retail environment, including the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, shifting consumer demand, rising levels of shrink, persistent inflationary pressures and other macroeconomic headwinds, all of which have greatly hindered the company’s ability to operate. We deeply appreciate the dedicated employees, customers, partners, and communities who have collectively supported 99 Cents Only Stores for decades.”

99 Cents Only’s press release stated the retail company began liquidating “all 371 of the Company’s store locations” on Friday and is using Hilco Real Estate to manage the sale of real estate assets.

The liquidation will result in the closing of all stores across California, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas.

Founded in 1982, the store initially offered consumers “closeout branded merchandise, general merchandise, and fresh foods.” 

The cost of doing business in the era of failed Bidenomics and disastrous social justice reforms makes it hard for even the most seasoned companies to operate. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 14:45

McDonald’s Buys Up All Israeli Franchise Restaurants After Boycott Hits Sales

McDonald’s Buys Up All Israeli Franchise Restaurants After Boycott Hits Sales

Via Middle East Eye

McDonald’s has bought out all the franchise restaurants in Israel after seeing a sales hit due to boycotts. The locations have become a flashpoint in the Israel-Hamas war, receiving global media attention. 

Bloomberg reported that McDonald’s Corp has decided on the buyout from Alonyal Ltd, taking direct control of the operations several months after its Israel franchise became a focal issue during the early stages of the war on Gaza.

Pro-Palestine activists walk past a McDonald’s during a protest in central London in March, via AFP.

“McDonald’s remains committed to the Israeli market and to ensuring a positive employee and customer experience in the market going forward,” said Jo Sempels, who leads the McDonald’s segment that oversees international markets with licenced restaurants.

According to Calcalist, an Israeli financial news website, the chain intends to search for a new franchise for its Israeli operations a few months after finalizing the acquisition. McDonald’s announced that the deal with Alonyal hinges on specific prerequisites, and that the transaction is expected to conclude in the next few months.

Over 30 years ago, Alonyal introduced the McDonald’s brand to Israel, expanding the business to include 225 locations and over 5,000 staff members, Bloomberg reported.

Local franchise operators run the majority of McDonald’s stores around the world and in many ways act as independent businesses.

McDonald’s sparked outrage among pro-Palestine activists last October when its Israel franchise announced it was giving free meals to Israeli soldiers in its branches in the country.

This prompted franchise operators in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Pakistan to publicly criticize the actions.

In a statement a few days later, Chris Kempczinski, the CEO of McDonald’s, said that the company “firmly condemns violence and hate speech” and feels “deeply disturbed by the acts of antisemitism and Islamophobia,” Bloomberg reported.

CNBC reported that the company saw fourth-quarter sales slip in the Middle East in the wake of the distribution of free meals to Israeli soldiers. The region accounts for two percent of McDonald’s global sales and one percent of its global earnings before interest and taxes.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 14:25

Trump Says Truth Social Has Zero Debt, $200 Million Cash Despite Media Fixation On 2023 Loss

Trump Says Truth Social Has Zero Debt, $200 Million Cash Despite Media Fixation On 2023 Loss

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former President Donald Trump said Thursday that media fixation on the $58 million loss of the company behind Truth Social is misguided, touting its fundamentals—which he said include over $200 million cash and no debt—as “very solid.”

President Trump took to Truth Social on April 4 to say that the platform’s performance is “amazing” and its fundamentals are “very solid,” with over $200 million in cash and “zero debt.”

Official first-quarter financial information for Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, isn’t available yet.

Very good for a startup, and growing fast,” President Trump said in a follow-up message, while touting the platform’s growing popularity.

The 45th president’s remarks come after a turbulent week for Trump Media, which went public last week after finalizing its long-awaited merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC), a special purpose acquisition company.

This illustration photo shows a person checking the app store on a smartphone for Truth Social with a photo of former President Donald Trump on a computer screen in the background, in Los Angeles, October 20, 2021. ( CHRIS DELMAS/AFP via Getty Images)

Market Interest Explodes, Then Cools

Following the merger and initial public offering (IPO) last week, market interest exploded in Trump Media, which trades under the ticker symbol DJT. Its stock price soared above $79 per share on its first day of trading, sending the company’s market cap to over $7 billion.

This meant that President Trump, who owns around 57 percent of the combined company, on paper became over $4 billion richer, though a lock-in arrangement prevents him from selling his shares for six months.

After the initial surge of interest, Trump Media shares pulled back to around the $62 mark, where they traded until news broke on April 1 that, in 2023, the company suffered a $58 billion loss.

Word of the loss sent Trump Media shares plunging by roughly 20 percent to around the $45 mark, a price around which it’s traded sideways until today, at a market cap of around $6.3 billion.

Much of the loss appears to be related to an interest expense of $39.4 million on its outstanding debt, according to the 8-K filing. In 2022, the company made a net profit of $50.5 million.

The merger with DWAC gave Trump Media a $300 million cash infusion, with the company notching $4.1 million in revenue last year.

Trump Media executives said in Monday’s 8-K filing that they expect the company to continue taking losses as they burn through some of that cash in order to aggressively expand Truth Social’s user base.

“TMTG expects to continue to incur operating losses and negative cash flows from operating activities for the foreseeable future, as it works to expand its user base, attracting more platform partners and advertisers,” the company said in the filing.

President Trump’s stake in the company is now worth roughly $3.8 billion.

Trump Media’s meteoric rise and subsequent wobble has sparked massive interest in shorting the stock—meaning betting money on its potential price decline.

According to financial data company S3 Partners, Trump Media is the most “shorted” special purpose acquisition vehicle in the country at the moment.

New Media Giant?

Trump Media executives said in Monday’s 8-K filing that they’re looking to enhance the platform’s appeal by new initiatives such as acquiring new technologies.

They said they’ve already started testing “a particular, state-of-the-art technology that supports video streaming and provides a ‘home’ for cancelled content creators,” which Trump Media aims to acquire soon and incorporate into its offering.

“Such initiatives and potential acquisitions are still preliminary and subject to material changes and risks, some of which are beyond TMTG’s control,” the company stated.

Given these uncertainties, TMTG believes it is premature for TMTG to predict when it will attain profitability and positive cash flows from its operations.”

Trump Media executives noted that the platform’s success depends in part on the popularity of its brand and the reputation of President Trump.

“The value of TMTG’s brand may diminish if the popularity of President Trump were to suffer,” the executives wrote in Monday’s 8-K filing. “Adverse reactions to publicity relating to President Trump, or the loss of his services, could adversely affect TMTG’s revenues, results of operations and its ability to maintain or generate a consumer base.”

It’s a message the former commander-in-chief appears to have taken to heart, with his posts on Thursday touting the impact of the Truth Social platform and blasting its detractors.

“All of the competitors to TRUTH SOCIAL, especially those in the Radical Left Democrats Party who are failing at every level, like to use their vaunted ‘disinformation machine’ to try and convince people, and it is not easy to do, that TRUTH is not such a big deal and doesn’t ‘get the word out’ as well as various others, which they know to be false,” President Trump wrote in one of his posts.

Besides sharing the state of Trump Media’s financials—which TMTG CEO Devin Nunes echoed in a statement: “Truth Social today has no debt and over $200 million in the bank”—the former president said the platform is the main way he communicates with the public.

“It is the primary way I get the word out and, for better or worse, people want to hear what I have to say, perhaps, according to experts, more than anyone else in the World,” he wrote, adding that competing social media platforms, which he said canceled him for largely political reasons, would love to have him back.

“Look, using TRUTH, I became the Republican Nominee for President of the United States, and in record time! When I ENDORSE a politician on TRUTH, they almost ALWAYS WIN,” he continued, adding that if the platform didn’t work to get the message out, he wouldn’t use it.

Meanwhile, as President Trump paints the fate of Truth Social in bright colors, there appears to be no shortage of investors willing to bet on its demise.

“They are looking for this stock to crater and crater very quickly,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at S3, told The New York Times of the big interest in shorting Trump Media.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 13:45

Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark 1970s Oil Shock Fears

Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark 1970s Oil Shock Fears

Larry MacDonald of The Bear Traps Report penned a very informative note last month that outlined, “2023-2024 look a lot like 1973-1974.” He said, “We’re one event away from a 1970s-style stagflation explosion…” History books remind us that the 1973 oil embargo shook the global energy market. 

We were reminded of MacDonald’s note because the global benchmark Brent is currently being subjected to a major repricing event of geopolitical risk as Israel makes preparations for a potential retaliation by Tehran after a precision strike in Syria earlier this week killed top Iranian commanders. 

“The market now knows that some kind of retaliation from Iran will likely come, but it doesn’t know when and where and what, and that creates a great discomfort and nervousness,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB, told Bloomberg. 

On Thursday, UBS desk trader Alexander Gray outlined several bullish factors into Brent’s surge that has the benchmark around $91/bbl handle:

  1. Rally / buying right into the 14:30 New York energy close – suggests heavy index fund prepositioning ahead of GSCI roll onset tomorrow where energy will be weighted in the index

  2. Geopolitics – reports of potential attacks within Iran and also potential retaliation toward Israel following Monday’s airstrikes.

  3. Bullish consensus and flow – a number of Street strategists have been out today talking about upside risk toward the $95-100 range in crude. Meanwhile, flows here have skewed toward upside buying in the options space

  4. Technicals – Front-month WTI crude oil just completed a ‘golden cross’ technical formation with the 50- and 200-day moving average crossover. The front month is aimed at $88.58 above; $91.08 is key as the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level in Brent… which is precisely where Brent is trading at this moment..

Last week, JPMorgan Chase forecasted that crude oil would climb above $100 by September. And this is ominous, as, like MacDonald’s note, we’re just one shock away from stagflation. That shock, what the consensus now believes is possible, is a direct Israel-Iran conflict. And that could propel Brent well above the $100 mark. 

“If we get a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, that’s something that will likely restrict the supply of oil coming from the Middle East,” Matt Maley, an analyst at Miller Tabak + Co., told Bloomberg.

And this would be absolutely terrible for the Biden administration, which will likely have to drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—already at dangerously low levels—to mitigate gasoline prices at the pump from rising above the politically dangerous $4 a gallon national average, which would damage re-election odds. 

And it’s not just Brent and WTI ripping higher on repricing geopolitical risks. In early March, we outlined that it was only a matter of time before Brent was repriced for mounting geopolitical risks (read here).

Furthermore, the inflation news worsens as the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s global food index jumped 1.13% in March, the highest monthly gain since July 2023.

Energy inflation will feed into food production costs and likely increase prices. 

Meanwhile, a broadening and worsening conflict in the Middle East – something that appears imminent – will push crude markets higher – and America’s enemies understand weaponizing the energy market is a powerful tool to spark the next financial shock. 

David Asher, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute and former investigator into Covid origins at the State Department, recently penned a note titled “Navigating the New World Disorder: Economic Faultlines, Fissures, Fractures, and Failures.” 

Asher outlined that if broadening conflict in the Middle East materializes, then there is the very risk that the world’s largest processing facility and the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world, owned by Saudi Aramco – called the Abqaiq facility – could be subjected to missile and drone attacks from Iran-backed Houthis and or other Iranian proxies. 

Could Tehran use oil as an economic weapon against the West? The odds are certainly increasing. 

Consider the economic impacts of previous oil shocks…

To sum up, the Middle East conflict has undoubtedly entered a new dimension this week as a direct Israel-Iran conflict looms that could send Brent crude prices into triple-digit territory, which would help to re-accelerate inflation and unleash further pain for consumers across the West – similar to the 1970s.  

Let’s hope this doesn’t happen. If it does, it will wreck the Biden administration’s re-election odds. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 13:25

Bizarre Reuters Article Warns Climate Change Is Hurting “Indonesian Trans Sex Workers”

Bizarre Reuters Article Warns Climate Change Is Hurting “Indonesian Trans Sex Workers”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Reuters has published perhaps the most bizarre article ever, warning that climate change is having a detrimental impact on the income of Indonesian transgender sex workers.

Yes, really.

The entire thing reads like an April fool’s joke, but it isn’t.

The author, Leo Galuh, complains that “Nearly 93% of respondents saw decreased income during the rainy season,” explaining “Trans women…are among the most affected by extreme weather linked to climate change, as well as suffering disproportionately when disasters strike.”

Oh no, won’t someone think of the poor Indonesian trans sex workers?

It continues, “Indonesia is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and trans women, who tend to face more stigma and marginalisation than trans men or other LGBTQ+ Indonesians, are also among those hardest hit by extreme weather.”

Why? Well, because they are “are shut out of the formal economy” and have no other choice but to become prostitutes. Duh.

But hang on, what’s this?

“Despite gender-fluid communities being historically accepted in Indonesia, a rising tide of conservative Islam in the world’s largest Muslim-majority country has fuelled anti-LGBTQ+ persecution.”

Ah, a kernel of truth among the batshit.

Now back to the madness.

“LGBTQ+ individuals are sometimes blamed for problems related to climate change,” according to Arif Budi Darmawan, a researcher at the Bandung-based Resilience Development Initiative.”

“Those outside the binary category are often labelled with the category ‘deviant’, (and) associated with the causes of environmental problems and disasters,” said Darmawan, who has researched how climate change affects trans Indonesians.”

The article then complains that while the Indonesian government has a plan to manage the impacts of climate change, trans people are not factored in.

Imagine that. Why-ever not?

The article just kind of ends with the information that the trans sex workers are putting on their own movie nights and one of them transitioned into making cakes for a living, which isn’t so affected by climate change.

Thank heavens for that.

Pulitzer incoming.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 13:05

Israel Sacks Top Officers Over Aid Convoy Attack As Biden Gives ‘Ultimatum’ To Netanyahu

Israel Sacks Top Officers Over Aid Convoy Attack As Biden Gives ‘Ultimatum’ To Netanyahu

On Thursday President Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the Israeli military’s killing of seven aid workers with the World Central Kitchen which happened Monday, and has since resulted in rare expression of US mainstream media outrage. 

The White House readout suggested a tense exchange, with Biden conveying tough words to the prime minister.  “President Biden emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable. He made clear the need for Israel to announce and implement a series of specific, concrete, and measurable steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers,” the readout said.

“He made clear that US policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps,” the statement added. Widespread media reports interpreted this as an unprecedented “ultimatum” given to the close US ally.

For example Reuters wrote that Biden “threatened to condition support for Israel’s offensive in Gaza on it taking concrete steps to protect aid workers and civilians, seeking for the first time to leverage US aid to influence Israeli military behavior.”

But as the reported Palestinian death toll in Gaza reaches and surpasses 33,000 – according to local health ministry figures – the administration in reality appears no closer to taking any action on placing conditions on use of US weaponry. Going back to Oct.7, Biden has only consistently vowed the opposite – that the defense aid would flow to Tel Aviv uninterrupted. This despite that one of the aid workers was American.

But the Israelis, seeking to tap down international and US anger, have said an internal investigation has concluded that the IDF drone team behind the attack was in “serious violation” of the military’s rules. Writes The Wall Street Journal, “The Israeli drone team that killed seven aid workers from World Central Kitchen after mistaking them for Hamas militants lacked the evidence to order the strikes and twice violated the military’s operating rules, an Israeli military investigation found.”

“The investigation’s findings indicate that the incident should not have occurred,” the IDF said. “Those who approved the strike were convinced that they were targeting armed Hamas operatives and not WCK employees.” The IDF still says it was a Hamas terrorists initially being targeted. “The investigation found that the forces identified a gunman on one of the aid trucks, following which they identified an additional gunman,” the statement said.

International members of the WCK convoy victims.

However, once the convoy of vehicles left the warehouse where it delivered food, “one of the commanders mistakenly assumed that the gunmen were located inside the accompanying vehicles and that these were Hamas terrorists.” Further, the drone team failed to take account for the fact that the vehicles were clearly marked with large WCK branding for identification purposes. No militants, alive or deceased, were ever found near the scene of the attack. According to more via WSJ:

Maj. Gen. Benny Gal, who took part in the investigation, said militants over the past month had commandeered aid convoys by joining them in vehicles that looked similar to those the aid workers used. This convinced commanders they were witnessing a similar phenomenon, he said. 

The IDF statement ultimately concluded, “The strike on the aid vehicles is a grave mistake stemming from a serious failure due to a mistaken identification, errors in decision-making, and an attack contrary to the Standard Operating Procedures.”

Israel has unveiled disciplinary steps against top officers for the “serious failure”, which has included the dismissal of two officers and the reprimand of three others. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has removed the chief of staff of the Nahal Infantry Brigade, Col. (res.) Nochi Mendel, as well as the brigade’s firepower coordination officer, who holds the rank of major.

Still, the World Central Kitchen charity has hit back, pointing out that “The IDF cannot credibly investigate its own failure in Gaza.” WCK added: “Without systemic change, there will be more military failures, more apologies and more grieving families.” The White House says it is carefully reviewing Israel’s internal investigation of the strikes.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/05/2024 – 12:45