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The Kremlin’s Unprecedented Description Of The Ukraine Conflict As A “War” & What It Means

The Kremlin’s Unprecedented Description Of The Ukraine Conflict As A “War” & What It Means

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

This should be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict… Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Argumenti I Fakty newspaper that “We are at war. Yes, it began as a special military operation, but as soon as this group was formed there, when the collective West became a participant in this on the side of Ukraine, for us it already became a war.” This is unprecedented since national security legislation prohibits the use of the word “war”, which is regarded as a mischaracterization of the way in which Russia is conducting what it refers to as a special operation.

The distinction is important regardless of whatever Western commentators claim since a special operation is a voluntarily limited military action whereas a war is only restricted by the international laws governing it (and only then if they’re abided by or externally enforced). Additionally, fighting what’s legally designated by the state as a war instead of a special operation pressures the authorities to respond accordingly to the West’s participation in this conflict, thus heightening the risk of escalation.

Peskov’s rhetorical shift came as France prepares to conventionally intervene in the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine, which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz inadvertently revealed is already an undeclared but limited hot one that’s thus far remained manageable due to each side abiding by unofficial “rules”. By formalizing and then expanding the presence of French troops in the battlespace, however, President Emmanuel Macron risks exacerbating the NATO-Russian security dilemma to uncontrollable proportions.

Peskov’s unprecedented description of the Ukrainian Conflict as a “war” should therefore be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict. The reason behind publicly conveying this intent is to prompt France and the other states like the UKPoland, and the Baltic States that might also be contemplating a conventional intervention to rethink their plans.

Their decisionmakers and societies now know how Russia would respond to this provocation, and that could lead to an uncontrollable cycle of escalations that culminate in World War III by miscalculation. To be clear, Russia would have the legal and moral right to strike those opposing forces that enter the battlespace, so the responsibility for setting this dangerous sequence of events into motion rests entirely on the West’s shoulders.

The only reason why that bloc is considering this is because it fears that the possibly impending Russian breakthrough that the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee recently warned might materialize by this summer could deal them a strategic defeat that discredits their politicians at home and abroad. They hyped the world up to expect Russia’s strategic defeat during last summer’s counteroffensive, but that maneuver totally failed, thus reshaping the conflict’s dynamics by placing Kiev back on the defensive.

Instead of accepting a full strategic defeat, some in the West now want to “escalate to de-escalate” by launching a conventional intervention that would either preempt a Russian breakthrough or immediately respond to it, which could then enable them to influence the endgame. In particular, they want to preserve their envisaged “sphere of influence” in Ukraine via its asymmetrical partition between NATO and Russia, not to mention reduce the size of Moscow’s hoped-for buffer zone in that country.

The Kremlin wants to deter them from doing so, which explains its spokesman’s unprecedented rhetorical shift that came amidst the largest-ever attack against Ukraine’s energy grid, with these intertwined diplomatic-military moves signaling what would happen to NATO troops if they get involved. Maintaining their undeclared but limited hot war is much more manageable than Russia being forced to respond to a conventional NATO intervention that it rightly fears could be the start of a larger invasion.

The international laws governing war would therefore be applied to stop this threat right in its tracks, with the consequence being that the West is pressured to retaliate in at least a tit-for-tat fashion so as not to “lose face” at home and abroad, especially after its uniformed soldiers are killed. Although Russia just carried out its largest-ever attacks against Ukraine’s energy grid, however, it’s still officially fighting a special operation that voluntarily limits its military actions instead of an all-out war according to Peskov.

He clarified shortly after his interview was released that “This is a special operation de jure, but de facto for us it turned into a war after the collective West increasingly increased the level of its involvement in the conflict.” This served to show that Russia is still restraining itself, which is meant to prevent its opponents from commencing a conventional intervention on the false pretext that Russia has supposedly already removed all such restraints after Peskov described the conflict as a “war”.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed shock at how Macron’s rhetoric catalyzed this latest “spiral of war” as he phrased it, which “seemed absurd and unthinkable just two months ago” in his words, but he doesn’t have the influence required to stop it or help them manage this latest escalation. The Pope and/or India are the only players with the ability to mediate between the warring parties to that end due to their neutral reputations and the trust that they enjoy with all sides.

China is also neutral just like those two, but it’s not trusted by the West, whose American leader is already preparing to “Pivot (back) to Asia” for the purpose of containing the People’s Republic after the Ukrainian Conflict inevitably ends. It therefore falls on the Pope and/or India to diplomatically intervene if the warring parties agree, which they appear somewhat receptive to when it comes to the second after Prime Minister Narendra Modi just spoke to Presidents Putin and Zelensky on Thursday.

Furthermore, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba is expected to visit India sometime next week in the first such trip by one of his country’s top officials since the special operation began, and this could help India get the diplomatic ball rolling if the political will exists on Kiev’s side to do so. Peace talks might not resume anytime soon, but Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar could still position himself as a possible mediator between the West/Ukraine and Russia.

He’s one of the world’s most experienced diplomats so he’ll certainly be able to handle this task if requested, in which case his involvement could help manage this latest escalation by helping the warring parties get a clearer idea of each side’s red lines and how they’ll react in various scenarios. The importance in doing so is to decrease the risk of World War III by miscalculation in the event that a NATO member or group thereof conventionally intervenes in Ukraine after the warning that Russia conveyed.  

Returning to Peskov’s rhetorical shift, the best that it could therefore do is prompt the West to back off from its plans, after which the warring parties could rely on Indian mediation to manage this latest phase of their security dilemma. If the West misinterprets his words as a “bluff” and still goes through with what Macron talked about, especially without India mediating to share each side’s red lines and how they’ll react in various scenarios, then the risk of World War III by miscalculation will be higher than ever.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 15:00

Life After Roosevelt Hotel: Migrants Stuffed Into 180 Sqft ‘Micro Apartments’ Ahead Of Elections

Life After Roosevelt Hotel: Migrants Stuffed Into 180 Sqft ‘Micro Apartments’ Ahead Of Elections

Some migrants, after spending months in luxurious hotels, such as the Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown Manhattan, are winding up in more permanent housing solutions in other crime-ridden progressive-controlled cities. In at least one case, migrants are being packed like cattle into a ‘micro-apartment’ – just before the US presidential election in November. 

Forbes interviewed Barbara Peraza-Garcia and her family, migrants from Venezuela, living in a 180-square-foot (17-square-meter) single-room apartment in Seattle. It’s a tight squeeze for the migrant family, and the rent is high at $900 a month. Still $500 less than the average cost for a studio in the city. 

“It’s warm. We can cook ourselves. We have a private bathroom. It’s quiet,” said Peraza-Garcia, whose family fled Venezuela. 

Barbara Peraza-Garcia holds her 2-year-old daughter, Frailys, by the kitchenette section of her ‘micro apartment’ while her partner, Franklin Peraza, browses Netflix in Seattle. Source: AP News 

Dan Bertolet, senior director of housing and urbanism for the non-profit research center Sightline Institute, said the 180-square-foot apartment’s price is the “cheapest you’re going to get without trying to find a subsidized apartment.”

The invasion of ten million migrants is colliding with the US’ affordable housing crisis, with the lack of studios and one-bedroom apartments.

That’s why some cities, like New York City, have erected massive migrant tent cities and stuffed illegals in hotels until permanent housing solutions are found and or until after the elections.

Some migrants are figuring out about “squatter’s rights” in progressive cities and have called on other illegal aliens to “invade” unoccupied homes across America.” 

The fact is, cities don’t have enough affordable homes, enough shelters, or enough money to house migrants for free, but there seems to be a push by Democrats to keep them in cities until at least after the election this fall.

While Republican lawmakers have pushed bills to detain unvetted migrants, Democrats have signaled they want migrants to vote in elections. 

Earlier this year, in a recent trio of posts to X, Elon Musk wrote that:

  1. Illegal immigrants “are not prevented from voting in federal elections.”
  2. “You don’t need a government-issued ID to vote.”
  3. Democrats “are importing voters.”

Earlier this week, Elon Musk posted a two-minute video detailing the end goals of the migrant invasion facilitated by the White House, non-governmental organizations, and mega-corporations

Turning illegal immigrants into progressive voters is the end goal of Democrats as they fight to stay in power by facilitating a migrant invasion with taxpayer dollars (they need a new voting base), weaponizing the Department of Justice against political opponents, and using federal agencies, NGOs, and mega-corporations to censor anyone who disagrees with their radical view points. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 13:00

Trump: “I Almost Have Five Hundred Million Dollars In Cash”

Trump: “I Almost Have Five Hundred Million Dollars In Cash”

Former President Trump on Friday said on Truth Social that “through hard work, talent, and luck, I currently have almost five hundred million dollars in cash.”

The announcement comes as a Monday deadline fast approaches for him to come up with roughly $454 million to stay judgement in his civil fraud case while he appeals.

According to Trump, he had intended to use a “substantial amount” of his money in his presidential campaign.

“THE OFTEN OVERTURNED POLITICAL HACK JUDGE ON THE RIGGED AND CORRUPT A.G. CASE, WHERE I HAVE DONE NOTHING WRONG, KNEW THIS, WANTED TO TAKE IT AWAY FROM ME,” President Trump wrote.

“THAT’S WHERE AND WHY HE CAME UP WITH THE SHOCKING NUMBER WHICH, COUPLED WITH HIS CRAZY INTEREST DEMAND, IS APPROXIMATELY $454,000,000,” he continued.

As the Epoch Times notes further:

The judgment total was $363 million, but breaks down with about $355 million of that specifically applying to President Trump, $4 million to be recovered from Eric Trump, $4 million to be recovered from Donald Trump Jr., and $1 million to be recovered from former Trump Organization finance chief Allen Weisselberg.

With the applied 9 percent interest, court filings say the bond comes out to more than $464 million, with a little more than $10 million of that attributed to judgment on Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Mr. Weisselberg.

Judgment was entered on Feb. 23, kicking off a 30-day clock to post the massive sum, set to expire on March 25.

President Trump, in the post, decried the ruling as an example of “communism in America.”

*  *  *

Meanwhile, even the AP found that in 70 years of similar cases involving civil fraud, Trump’s stood out as unique.

*  *  *

President Trump is billions of dollars richer after shareholders in Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) on Friday approved a merger with Trump’s media startup, Truth Social.

The long-delayed merger adds roughly $3.5 billion to Trump’s net worth – however the former president won’t be able to sell any shares for at least six months unless the board waives it (or they can back a loan), raising questions over whether he’ll be able to leverage it to secure a $464 million bond in his New York civil fraud case – which his lawyers say is “impossible” to secure due to a lack of cash on hand.

If Trump can’t secure the giant sum by Monday, he risks the seizure of assets – which New York has already begun positioning itself to do.

Earlier this week, DWAC sued to force its former CEO, Patrick Orlando, to vote his 14.77% shareholding in favor of the merger, despite an ongoing dispute over compensation, Axios and FT report. Orlando was on the shareholder vote call.

“The professional relationship between Mr Orlando and Digital World became strained and has continued to deteriorate such that there is no assurance that Mr Orlando as a current member of our board or as a controlling affiliate of the sponsor will be co-operative,” DWAC warned in a filing last month.

Following the merger, DWAC will effectively cease to exist, and will be replaced by TMTG – which will be listed on the Nasdaq. Its board of directors will include Donald Trump Jr. as well as several former members of the Trump White House, the report continues. Former Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) will serve as TMTG’s CEO.

Meanwhile, and perhaps in anticipation of Trump selling to satisfy the bond, DWAC shares have plummeted on the news to the tune of 8% in early trading.

Beyond Trump’s massive payout from the deal, three hedge funds also stand to make huge profits – Anson Funds, Mangrove Capital Partners and All Blue Capital, which participated in a $50mm convertible debt offering earlier this year after other funds had walked away. They’re sitting on over $400 million in gains as of Thursday’s closing price.

“The return will be amazing,” said one person involved in the financing, per FT. “Trump’s advisers have been keeping him on the sidelines . . . they want to get this vote clear with no issues with the government. Then, on Tuesday when it starts trading, it is game on for Trump.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 12:54

NIH Prioritizes Schools With Diversity Statements In Doling Out Grants

NIH Prioritizes Schools With Diversity Statements In Doling Out Grants

Via Campus Reform,

  • The National Institutes of Health’s ‘Faculty Institutional Recruitment for Sustainable Transformation’ initiative favors medical researchers who affirm their support for DEI.

  • Some schools funded by FIRST penalize potential new hires for expressing commitments to ‘treat everyone the same,’ writes NAS senior fellow John Sailer.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has made diversity a key consideration in giving grants to medical researchers at schools across the nation, encouraging many to craft statements “describing their commitment to promoting diversity and inclusive excellence” in order to qualify for funding.

NIH recently announced a third round of funding for its Faculty Institutional Recruitment for Sustainable Transformation (FIRST) initiative for Fiscal Year 2023. The program’s stated scientific parameters extend to “all biomedical research areas within the NIH mission,” including research into the “causes, diagnosis, prevention, and cure of human diseases,” as outlined in the NIH’s list of goals and missions.

FIRST classifies applications from research institutions into one of three categories for the sake of record-keeping: “Highly Resourced Institutions” (HRI), “Limited-Resourced Institutions” (LRI), and “Partnerships,” denoting a hybrid application from two or more schools.

In order to qualify as an LRI, an institution must meet certain criteria, such as “[having] a historical and current commitment to educating underrepresented students,” and further, “if institutions provide clinical health care services, those services must be provided to medically underserved communities.” 

The abstract for the University of Alabama at Birmingham and Tuskegee University’s joint FIRST partnership exemplifies such commitments. The initiative’s “overarching goal,” according to the project description, is to “create systemic and sustainable culture change to further support inclusive excellence in research at both institutions.”

Many have taken issue with the manner in which FIRST conditions research grants based upon DEI-related criteria. In a recent op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, National Association of Scholars senior fellow John Sailer described research projects funded by FIRST at a number of schools, including Cornell University, the University of California, Berkeley, Northwestern University, and others. 

Sailer’s piece details how researchers at Berkeley used part of an earlier FIRST grant to onboard several new faculty. The rubric used to evaluate potential applicants penalized those who intended to “treat everyone the same.” 

Other schools, including the University of South Carolina and the University of New Mexico, used nearly-identical hiring criteria, he alleges.

NIH launched FIRST in 2021, with each round of funding granting up to $2.8 million to eligible recipients. A full list of participating institutions can be found here.

Campus Reform has contacted the National Institutes of Health for comment. This article will be updated accordingly.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 12:40

“Terrified” Joe Biden Demands Ukraine Halt Strikes On Russian Refiners As It Is Sending Oil Prices Surging

“Terrified” Joe Biden Demands Ukraine Halt Strikes On Russian Refiners As It Is Sending Oil Prices Surging

If anyone is wondering what is the one, sole driving force behind Joe Biden’s foreign policy, here is the answer: It’s always been about the oil, stupid. Whether it was becoming best friends with the “evil dictators” in Iran and Venezuela in hopes of keeping their oil output in the market and depressing the price of the commodity, or enacting purely optical sanctions on Russian oil exports which have led to record oil exports – and export revenues – by the Putin regime, the handlers of the senile president have been terrified of any false move that sharply reduces the supply of oil or its byproducts in the global market, sending commodity prices – and inflation – surging, and crushing Biden’s re-election chances.

Which brings us to the latest surreal news.

Recall that in recent days, Ukraine has taken its drone attack raids deep inside Russian territory, hitting Putin where it hurts, namely bombing one Russian oil refinery after another. Now granted, Ukraine can do far worse and sink Russian oil tankers, but Kiev understands that this would spark outrage at the White House as it would instantly send oil prices surging, although once Trump is in the White House, Ukraine will have no such concerns as we pointed out earlier this week.

However, after the onslaught of Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries shut down over 600,000 barrels of Russian daily refining

… this morning the FT reported what our readers already knew, namely that the Biden admin is freaking out that Ukraine’s drone strikes “risk driving up global oil prices” which is why Biden has “urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.”

And it wasn’t just once, or twice: the “repeated warnings” from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, sources told the Financial Times, as both intelligence units had steadily expanded their own drone programs to strike Russian targets on land, sea and in the air since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity as we discussed previously. But what is really being hurt is America’s enthusiasm to refill their car after the average gasoline price in the US soared above $3.50, the highest since October and above year-ago levels.

And about to go higher…

As the FT redundantly notes, “Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector.” Of course, the “despite” here is a joke: if western sanctions really wanted to halt Russian oil exports they would; instead just like in the case of Ukraine targeting Russian oil infrastructure, “virtuous” western leaders are all about “helping” Ukraine (of course with your money, dear taxpayers) as long as it does not interfere with their re-election chances. Which means keep any sanctions purely in the optical arena as the alternative is a sharp spike in oil prices. Indeed, oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as the figurehead in the White House begins his campaign for re-election.

The White House is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west. This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.

“We do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia,” an NSC spokesperson said. The CIA declined to comment. In Kyiv, a spokesperson for the SBU declined to comment. Officials at GUR and Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to requests for comment.

As reported previously, Ukraine had stepped up its air attacks in recent weeks, as its drone programs expand and the ground war shifts in Moscow’s favor. It also follows growing discontent in Kyiv over what is seen as the west’s ambivalent approach to curbing Moscow’s energy revenues. Since 2022, there have been at least 12 attacks on major Russian refineries, and at least nine this year, along with several terminals, depots and storage facilities, according to a military intelligence official in Kyiv.

Ukraine has steadily increased drone strikes as its technologies have advanced. Ukrainian officials claim to have developed drones with a range in excess of 1,000km and payloads capable of inflicting severe damage. Kyiv launched two of its largest and most widespread drone attacks last week, with operations by both the GUR and SBU successfully targeting seven Russian energy facilities in consecutive days.

Over the past year, GRU and SBU sea drones have also struck Russian ports, destroyed several Russian warships in the Black Sea and hit Moscow’s prized Crimea bridge connecting Russia to the occupied Ukrainian peninsula. The aim of the “special operations” is to hamper the supply of fuel to Russia’s troops and cut funding for the Kremlin’s war effort, according to one Ukrainian official involved in planning and conducting the attacks. This is something the West pretended it was doing with “sanctions” which turned out to be anything but.

Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst now at RBC Capital Markets, recently noted that Ukraine had shown it could strike most of the oil export infrastructure in western Russia, putting about 60 per cent of the country’s exports at risk.

After the Financial Times published news of the US warnings on Friday Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, was asked how Kyiv had responded to the Biden administration’s appeals to stop attacks on Russian refineries.

She said: “The Ukrainian side responded, I think, precisely by achieving its goals and by very successful operations conducted on the territory of the Russian Federation.”

“We understand the appeals of our American partners,” Stefanishyna told an audience at the Kyiv Security Forum. “At the same time, we are fighting with the capabilities, resources and practices that we have today.” She said energy facilities were legitimate targets from a military point of view, even as the Biden admin clearly disagreed.

In other words, a defiant Ukraine is now openly biting the hand that feeds it. Which means that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refiners is rapidly emerging as a problem that only such a legendary energy expert as Hunter Biden can solve.

* * * *

“Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a surge in pump prices during an election year,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former White House energy adviser.

Hilariously, while the air campaign is also seen by some officials as a means to spur Washington into approving the $60bn military assistance package held up in Congress that is critical for Ukraine’s defence, what is more likely to happen is that even Biden decides to give more funding to Ukraine which is now using US made weapons to directly reduce his re-election chances.

Meanwhile, over at the “dovish” Fed…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 12:20

Museum Claims Dinosaurs Have “LGBTQ History” And Birds Are “Queer”

Museum Claims Dinosaurs Have “LGBTQ History” And Birds Are “Queer”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A museum in Britain has claimed that some birds are “queer” and that the history of animal queerness has been “hidden from the public”.

The Hastings Museum and Art Gallery is running an LGBTQ history exhibition funded by Arts Council England which claims that some birds are “queer” because they “change their sex from female to male.”

The Telegraph notes that the claims about birds such as pheasants are completely unfounded and have no scientific basis.

The exhibition, in association with a group called the Hastings Queer History Collective, further claims that arguments about “queer” behaviour in the animal world being “unnatural” are undermined by the behaviour of game birds.

A pamphlet available at the museum states “Despite queer behaviour in the animal kingdom being observed as far back as the 18th century, it is often ignored or hidden from the public,” adding “One example is of female pheasants changing their sex when they stop laying eggs and turn their brown feathers into the brightly coloured feathering typical of males.”

“Pheasants feature in some of the earliest European studies of queer behaviour in animals,” it continues, adding “With queerness visible in the natural world, the argument that it is somehow ‘unnatural’ begins to unravel.”

All of this is just totally made up nonsense.

While some older birds’ feathers change colour due to hormonal changes, to say they change sex is just flat wrong.

Biologist Dr Emma Hilton, who is also a board director of the gender-critical campaign group Sex Matters, noted that “The only vertebrates that change sex are all fish. Birds do not change sex.”

Hilton added that “Often in the process of ageing, female animals can produce male features as a result of hormonal changes, we can also see this in humans following the menopause, but we would not say that older women had changed sex if they have a bit of a moustache.”

After spewing total garbage about animals, the museum’s guide, designed by The They Them Studio, a “queer-led graphic design company,” goes on to claim that “Eighteenth-century colonialism is responsible for the destruction of many ancient gender systems in countries around the world.”

Without presenting any evidence, it claims that past important figures and cultures have a “queer history,” and believed in a “third gender,” and that it was all somehow covered up.

As an example, it notes that children starting puberty in ancient Japan were considered a different gender and entered into a sexual relationship with adult masters, without pointing out that this is pedophilia, not some sort of transgender history.

The guide further claims that some Greek gods were bisexual, King William II was definitely gay because he was a bit effeminate and had no wife or children, and that an 11th century Archbishop had “queer sensibilities” and could be “considered a defender of gay rights.”

By far the most ridiculous entry on the guide is a description of a fossilised dinosaur footprint, that states “we cannot comment on the sexuality of the dinosaur who made this footprint, but we do know that the 11-year-old boy who found it is now grown up, happily married to his husband Greg in a pink house in Hastings.”

Talk about clutching at straws.

“Queer history takes many forms, and in this case, it makes up an important part of the fossil’s provenance,” the guide ludicrously adds.

Queerassic Park?

Of course this is all just made up clap trap, but how long will it be before it is injected into school curriculums?

Will children be taught that Old MacDonald had a queer farm and that Samurai warriors in ancient Japan were really transgender?

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 12:00

Family Of Black Girl Who Beat Schoolmate To Near Death Say She’s The Real Victim, Starts GoFundMe

Family Of Black Girl Who Beat Schoolmate To Near Death Say She’s The Real Victim, Starts GoFundMe

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

The family of the black girl who beat a schoolmate to near death in Missouri say she’s the real victim, was “merely defending herself” against bullying and is raising money for her legal defense.

Yes, really.

Video footage showed the savage beating of a student from Hazelwood East High School, which left Kaylee Gain fighting for her life with a skull fracture, brain bleeding, and damage to her frontal lobe.

But according to Maurnice Declue’s family, who started a Change.org petition, the clip, where the assailant repeatedly slams the victim’s head against the concrete ground, actually shows Declue “defending herself from harassment and bullying”.

The petition claims the 15-year-old “had never been in trouble” and that “her work as a scholar was tainted by the bullying she had to endure at school”.

The family is urging Chief Juvenile Officer Rick Gaines of the 21st Circuit Court “not to charge Maurnice as an adult” because she was “merely defending herself under intense and flight vs fight circumstances”.

They also started a GoFundMe campaign to raise money asking the public for $150,000, but it was rightly shut down within hours.

Hazelwood East High School is made up of 96.7% black, and 1.4% white students, but apparently Gain was the real bully.

As we previously highlighted, the school in question has a history of anti-white racism cases and violent confrontations and was awarded the North County Incorporated (NCI) Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Leadership Award in 2022.

Meanwhile, the GoFundMe campaign for the real victim has now surpassed $380,000 dollars in donations.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 09:55

Lululemon Shares Tumble On Cautious Consumer Outlook 

Lululemon Shares Tumble On Cautious Consumer Outlook 

Lululemon’s stock plunged in premarket trading as the company’s forecast for first-quarter net revenue fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. The athleisure brand blamed a slowdown in sales at its US stores for the underwhelming sales forecast. Additionally, Lululemon announced that fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share missed estimates, prompting analysts to lower their price targets.

Late Thursday, Chief Executive Officer Calvin McDonald told analysts that US customers purchased fewer items than a year ago. He explained that customers “are a little soft coming into the year” but noted “strong momentum” at stores across all international markets, including Canada. 

Lululemon’s 2024 outlook forecasted revenue to be in the range of $10.7 billion to $10.8 billion, representing growth of 11% to 12%, which is below the 19% recorded last year. 

The slowdown is sales has been across a wide variety of products. McDonald said the company would boost new product colors and more yoja pants sized between 0 and 4 to boost sales. 

Shares of Lululemon in New York in premarket trading were down as much as 13%. 

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal said the yoga-wear maker typically guides conservatively and then beats those forecasts: 

“They will beat their conservatively-set guidance. Plenty of opportunity exists — especially abroad and in men’s.”

Here’s a snapshot of the fourth-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

  • Adjusted EPS $4.40, estimate $5.00

  • EPS $5.29, estimate $5.00

  • Net revenue $3.21 billion, estimate $3.19 billion

  • Total comp sales constant currency +12%, estimate +13.5%

  • Gross margin 59.4%, estimate 58.7%

  • Operating margin 28.5%, estimate 28%

  • Inventory $1.32 billion, estimate $1.46 billion

  • Total location count 711, estimate 710

First quarter forecast: 

  • Sees net revenue $2.18 billion to $2.2 billion, estimate $2.26 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Sees EPS $2.35 to $2.40, estimate $2.55

And 2025 year forecast: 

  • Sees net revenue $10.7 billion to $10.8 billion, estimate $10.96 billion

  • Sees EPS $14 to $14.20

Here’s more commentary from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Piper Sandler, Abbie Zvejnieks (overweight)

  • Lululemon results for 4Q were strong, but quarter-to-date trends resulted in what was a “disappointing” outlook for the year 

  • While prepared for below-expectations growth, Zvejnieks says the level of deceleration seen in the US raises concerns on market share opportunity

  • “We think this could be a factor of lapping higher markdowns and a general spending lull between buying periods, and we will closely watch reception to spring products such as skirts, shorts, and tanks”

  • PT cut to $525 from $560

TD Cowen, John Kernan (outperform)

  • Guidance for 1Q is a reflection of the shift in US consumer behaviour, which has led to a slow start to FY24

  • “The macro environment is choppy and competitive environment is as challenging as ever with upstarts, but management’s execution on gross margin and SG&A is evident”

  • PT cut to $515 from $553

Citi, Paul Lejuez (buy)

  • Comparable sales in China for 4Q were “impressive,” but were overshadowed by a weaker performance in the US along with a further slowdown in 1Q

  • Management has attributed the slowdown to a softening consumer in the US, but Lejuez says it is “unclear why their higher-income consumer would be feeling incremental macro pressures”

  • Notes management plans to make additional marketing and product investments in 1Q to spark a re-acceleration in US growth starting in 2Q, though expects this to be viewed skeptically by the market until visibility is clearer

  •  Sees overhang of weakening US business weighing on share in near term 

  • PT cut to $500 from $520

Morgan Stanley, Alex Straton (overweight)

  • “Underwhelming” performance in North America, “disappointing” top-line guidance for 1Q and FY24, and the cautious quarter-to- date commentary on consumers “fueled the bear narrative”

  •  However, Straton thinks the guidance for 1Q and FY24 should prove to be beatable, which is part of the reason she remains overweight despite the expensive valuation

  • PT reduced to $490 from $539

Meanwhile, athletic apparel retailer Nike is down 6% in premarket trading on news of a sales squeeze, organizational restructuring, and a product transition phase. 

Perhaps this is the latest evidence some consumers are cracking under the weight of persistent inflation. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 09:35

Retirement Crisis Faces Government And Corporate Pensions

Retirement Crisis Faces Government And Corporate Pensions

Authored by Lance Roberts via ReaslInvestmentAdvice.com,

It is long past the time that we face the fact that Social Security” is facing a retirement crisis. In June 2022, we touched on this issue, discussing the stark realities confronting Social Security.

“The program’s payouts have exceeded revenue since 2010, but the recent past is nowhere near as grim as the future. According to the latest annual report by Social Security’s trustees, the gap between promised benefits and future payroll tax revenue has reached a staggering $59.8 trillion. That gap is $6.8 trillion larger than it was just one year earlier. The biggest driver of that move wasn’t Covid-19, but rather a lowering of expected fertility over the coming decades.” – Stark Realities

Note the last sentence.

When President Roosevelt first enacted social security in 1935, the intention was to serve as a safety net for older adults. However, at that time, life expectancy was roughly 60 years. Therefore, the expectation was that participants would not be drawing on social security for very long on an actuarial basis. Furthermore, according to the Social Security Administration, roughly 42 workers contributed to the funding pool for each welfare recipient in 1940.

Of course, given that politicians like to use government coffers to buy votes, additional amendments were added to Social Security to expand participation in the program. This included adding domestic labor in 1950 and widows and orphans in 1956. They lowered the retirement age to 62 in 1961 and increased benefits in 1972. Then politicians added more beneficiaries, from disabled people to immigrants, farmers, railroad workers, firefighters, ministers, federal, state, and local government employees, etc.

While politicians and voters continued adding more beneficiaries to the welfare program, workers steadily declined. Today, there are barely 2-workers for each beneficiary. As noted by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation:

Social Security has been a cornerstone of economic security for almost 90 years, but the program is on unsound footing. Social Security’s combined trust funds are projected to be depleted by 2035 — just 13 years from now. A major contributor to the unsustainability of the current Social Security program is that the number of workers contributing to the program is growing more slowly than the number of beneficiaries receiving monthly payments. In 1960, there were 5.1 workers per beneficiary; that ratio has dropped to 2.8 today.”

As we will discuss, the collision of demographics and math is coming to the welfare system.

A Massive Shortfall

The new Financial Report of the United States Government (February 2024) estimates that the financial position of Social Security and Medicare are underfunded by roughly $175 Trillion. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin signed the report, but the chart below details the problem.

The obvious problem is that the welfare system’s liabilities massively outweigh taxpayers’ ability to fund it. To put this into context, as of Q4-2023, the GDP of the United States was just $22.6 trillion. In that same period, total federal revenues were roughly $4.8 trillion. In other words, if we applied 100% of all federal revenues to Social Security and Medicare, it would take 36.5 years to fill the gap. Of course, that is assuming that nothing changes.

However, therein lies the actuarial problem.

All pension plans, whether corporate or governmental, rely on certain assumptions to plan for future obligations. Corporate pensions, for example, rely on certain portfolio return assumptions to fund planned employee retirements. Most pension plans assume that portfolios will return 7% a year. However, a vast difference exists between “average returns” and “compound returns” as shown.

Social Security, Medicare, and corporate pension plans face a retirement crisis. A shortfall arises if contributions and returns don’t meet expectations or demand increases on the plans.

For example, given real-world return assumptions, pension funds SHOULD lower their return estimates to roughly 3-4% to potentially meet future obligations and maintain some solvency. However, they can’t make such reforms because “plan participants” won’t let them. Why? Because:

  1. It would require a 30-40% increase in contributions by plan participants they can not afford.

  2. Given many plan participants will retire LONG before 2060, there isn’t enough time to solve the issues and;

  3. Any bear market will further impede the pension plan’s ability to meet future obligations without cutting future benefits.

Social Security and Medicare face the same intractable problem. While there is ample warning from the Trustees that there are funding shortfalls to the plans, politicians refuse to make the needed changes and instead keep adding more participants to the rolls.

However, all current actuarial forecasts depend on a steady and predictable pace of age and retirement. But that is not what is currently happening.

A Retirement Crisis In The Making

The single biggest threat that faces all pension plans is demographics. That single issue can not be fixed as it takes roughly 25 years to grow a taxpayer. So, even if we passed laws today that required all women of birthing age to have a minimum of 4 children over the next 5 years, we would not see any impact for nearly 30 years. However, the problem is running in reverse as fertility rates continue to decline.

Interestingly, researchers from the Center For Sexual Health at Indiana University put forth some hypotheses behind the decline in sexual activity:

  • Less alcohol consumption (not spending time in bars/restaurants)

  • More time on social media and playing video games

  • Lower wages lead to lower rates of romantic relationships

  • Non-heterosexual identities

The apparent problem with less sex and non-heterosexual identities is fewer births.

No matter how you calculate the numbers, the problem remains the same. Too many obligations and a demographic crisis. As noted by official OECD estimates, the aging of the population relative to the working-age population has already crossed the “point of no return.”

To compound that situation, there has been a surge in retirees significantly higher than estimates. As noted above, actuarial tables depend on an expected rate of retirees drawing from the system. If that number exceeds those estimates, a funding shortfall increases to provide the required benefits.

The decline in economic prosperity discussed previously is caused by excessive debt and declining income growth due to productivity increases. Furthermore, the shift from manufacturing to a service-based society will continue to lead to reduced taxable incomes.

This employment problem is critical.

By 2025, each married couple will pay Social Security retirement benefits for one retiree and their own family’s expenses. Therefore, taxes must rise, and other government services must be cut.

Back in 1966, each employee shouldered $555 of social benefits. Today, each employee has to support more than $18,000 in benefits. The trend is unsustainable unless wages or employment increases dramatically, and based on current trends, such seems unlikely.

The entire social support framework faces an inevitable conclusion where wishful thinking will not change that outcome. The question is whether elected leaders will make needed changes now or later when they are forced upon us.

For now, we continue to “Whistle past the graveyard” of a retirement crisis.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 09:15

CIA Accused Of Directly Meddling In Hunter Biden IRS, DOJ Investigations

CIA Accused Of Directly Meddling In Hunter Biden IRS, DOJ Investigations

The Chairmen of the House Judiciary and Oversight Committees, Jim Jordan (R-OH) and James Comer (R-KY) say that a whistleblower has brought them information that ‘seems to corroborate our concerns’ that the CIA directly interfered with DOJ and IRS investigations of Hunter Biden.

According to the whistleblower, the CIA “intervened in the investigation of Hunter biden to prevent the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) from interviewing a witness,” the letter, addressed to CIA Director William Burns, reads.

Specifically, the Committees were concerned at how “the DOJ deviated from its standard processes to afford preferential treatment to Hunter Biden,” which they learned “after two brave whistleblowers testified to Congress” that the Justice Department had done just that.

DOJ officials restricted what investigative steps the investigators could pursue, tipped off Hunter Biden’s attorneys about investigative steps, and even prevented investigators from conducting witness interviews. The whistleblowers’ testimony about the preferential treatment provided to Hunter Biden has been corroborated by testimony from other witnesses and documents the Committees have received.”

The new whistleblower says that in August 2021, the IRS wanted to interview Hunter Biden associate Patrick Kevin Morris – and that “the CIA intervened to stop the interview.

“Two DOJ officials were allegedly summoned to CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia for a briefing regarding Mr. Morris,” at which “it was communicated that Mr. Morris could not be a witness during the investigation.”

The Committees have asked the CIA to explain the alleged intervention – for which the Chairman have requested “all documents and communications” regarding the DOJ and/or IRS investigations of Hunter Biden, as well as “referring or relating to Patrick Kevin Morris.”

 Meanwhile, former Trump administration official Mike Benz has some theories:

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2024 – 08:55