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“This Is An Attack On America”: Kevin O’Leary Blasts Letitia James For Possible Seizure of Trump Assets

“This Is An Attack On America”: Kevin O’Leary Blasts Letitia James For Possible Seizure of Trump Assets

O’Leary Ventures chairman and “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary blasted New York Attorney General Letitia James over the potential seizure of former President Trump’s assets should he fail to secure a $464 million appeal bond relating to the New York civil fraud judgment against him. 

“What a great message to send out all around the world,” O’Leary told a CNN host on Tuesday. 

On Monday, Trump’s lawyers admitted in a court filing that obtaining that bond was a “practical impossibility under the circumstances presented.” 

“Take a claim where no money was lost,” O’Leary said, adding, “There was no fraud here in the context of actually people losing money.”

He said, “This may be great for the attorney general, but this is not good for America.”

“Forget about Trump. Do you think this is good for business in New York? You think this is good for business in America?” he continued. 

O’Leary said, “To take a law that we use to protect people against buying refrigerators at an overpriced value decades ago, and apply it against an individual and then talk about seizing assets like he was in Venezuela or in Cuba?”

O’Leary also spoke with Fox News, telling hosts, “This has absolutely nothing to do with Donald Trump at this point. This is an attack on America. And I don’t know how you can look at it any other way.” 

In February, O’Leary told Fox Business that investors are limiting the amount of money they fund projects in New York, citing ongoing concerns that radical progressives in the state could seize assets. 

“Capital comes to America because of the stability of the justice system,” he told Fox’s Maria Bartiromo, adding, “This is not stable, in terms of many people’s eyes, domestically and internationally, seizing assets happens in Venezuela, it doesn’t happen in New York. So this is a little scary.”

Democrats are setting a dangerous precedence in the weaponization of the judicial system against their political opponents ahead of a presidential election. They’re willing to stoop to banana republic status while the world watches such reckless acts. The vibe from conservative investors has been to boycott New York and California for more friendlier (and safer) states such as Texas and Florida. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 10:20

A House Of Cards On Stilts

A House Of Cards On Stilts

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

What’s driving the current stock market frenzy? Is it a new bubble pure and simple? Is it driven by fundamentals? Does the Fed play an important role?

Let’s look at these factors and make a forecast of stock market index levels based on these and other inputs.

Trends in stock prices over the past year have largely been a function of market expectations about Fed rate cuts and market euphoria over strong economic data, including low unemployment rates.

Another factor is the upward momentum for all stocks due to the AI-inspired frenzy now going on. While these price drivers are easy to spot and explain, it’s the case that they mask a much more troubling economic reality that will emerge soon to push stock markets significantly lower.

Wall Street’s Been Wrong for Two Years

The S&P 500 index hit an interim low of 3,855 per share last March. This came at a time when the Fed was still raising interest rates, and Wall Street expectations of a “pivot” to rate cuts were in ruins.

Wall Street has been wrong about the pivot for almost two years and they’re still wrong today.

On March 22, 2023, the Fed raised the target rate for federal funds by 0.25% to 5.00%, a further step in the monetary tightening cycle that began the previous March, and a further blow to the pivot narrative. This accounted in part for the interim low in the S&P 500 index.

From there, the S&P 500 rallied to 4,589 on July 31, a near-20% gain in just over four months.

This was due to the Fed’s decision to hold its target rate steady at their June 14, 2023, meeting along with more pivot cheerleading from Wall Street and the growth of the “soft landing” narrative that promised lower rates without a recession.

But this narrative hit a brick wall (again) when the Fed raised interest rates another 0.50% to 5.50% contrary to the Wall Street fairy tale. Beginning on July 31, the S&P 500 fell from 4,589 to 4,117 on Oct. 27, a 10% reversal.

The S&P index had fallen back to about where it was on April 3, 2023, when the latest round of pivot euphoria began.

Narratives Die Hard

Still, narratives die hard. Over the course of the September, November and December 2023 Fed meetings, it became clear that the July rate hike really was the peak.

The Fed gave zero indication that they were ready to cut rates (the infamous pivot), but Wall Street took up the pivot narrative and ran with it anyway.

The S&P 500 index soared to over 5,130 10 days ago, a 25% rally in six months. This rally was helped along not only by the pivot narrative but also by stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q4 2023, stronger than expected job creation in January and February 2024, and the broader market euphoria surrounding all things AI-related.

There are numerous flaws in this happy narrative surrounding the stock market rally.

The first is that the strong GDP growth has been powered not by productivity gains or private-sector investment but by government spending. Growth in GDP has only been about 40% of growth in the national debt over the same time period.

The Keynesian “Multiplier”

Put differently, this means a neo-Keynesian multiplier of 0.40% compared to the much-touted multiplier of 1.25% or higher that deficit cheerleaders used to expect.

With a 1.25% multiplier, you borrow a dollar, spend a dollar and get $1.25 of growth (assuming the expenditure is not totally wasted and the economy has some spare capacity in terms of labor and capacity utilization).

With a 0.40% multiplier, you borrow a dollar, spend a dollar and get only $0.40 of growth. In short, your debt is growing faster than your economy, a completely non-sustainable state of affairs.

As the debt-to-GDP ratio goes higher, growth slows even more unless the government reaches into its bag of tricks and stokes hyperinflation. That gives you nominal growth (to deal with nominal debt). But real value is destroyed and bad debts soar.

House of Mirrors

The same house of mirrors applies to the low unemployment rate. This headline number (currently 3.9%) is based on the so-called establishment (employer) survey. The alternative household (individual) survey is showing weaker job creation.

Both surveys are glossing over the fact that most job creation is in the part-time rather than full-time category. Both surveys ignore the declining labor force participation rate (basically eligible workers who have dropped out of the workforce and are not counted as unemployed), declining hours worked and declining real wages.

Other data shows that while layoffs are not increasing dramatically, new hiring has hit the wall and is close to zero. Employment data is a lagging indicator. This means that when the data starts to turn downward, the recession is already here. We may be at that inflection point right now.

Gemini GPT – The Damage Is Done

Finally, the AI-related euphoria in the stock market is just that — euphoria. It’s a classic bubble in the making. AI is real and some hardware manufacturers such as Nvidia, AMD and Intel may deserve higher valuations.

But the GPT apps produced by Google, OpenAI and Microsoft are turning out to be not much more than novelties and defective ones at that.

A recent prompt to Google’s Gemini AI app for an image of a pope produced an array of Black women and an indigenous shaman. There hasn’t been a black, a woman or a shaman pope.

It turns out the product had been programmed to eliminate white people. Gemini was quickly pulled off the market but the reputational damage was done. This AI/GPT frenzy is a thin reed on which to rest any valuation.

The Bottom Line

When the economy falls in line with the hard data, loan losses (especially in credit cards and auto loans) will soar and financial institution stock prices will crash. The popping of the AI bubble will act as a force multiplier taking all stocks down with it.

The Fed may cut rates in September but (as usual for the Fed) it will be too late — the recession will already be here. Bank loan losses will overwhelm any slight gain in credit spreads.

The result will be an across-the-board tightening of monetary conditions typical of the early stage of a recession. The Fed will not be able to ride to the rescue.

So-called QE is not any kind of stimulus because the money created is sterilized in the form of excess reserves on the Fed balance sheet; it does not increase lending or spending in the real economy.

Stocks will plunge with no likely means of support.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 10:00

Struggling Intel Awarded $20 Billion In Chip Incentives For US Plants

Struggling Intel Awarded $20 Billion In Chip Incentives For US Plants

Over the past decade, Nvidia has surpassed Intel to become the most valuable semiconductor company in the United States. Intel has encountered significant setbacks in launching new chips and in its ambitious turnaround plan. 

However, there is good news: The White House announced Wednesday morning that the US Department of Commerce has reached a “preliminary agreement” with Intel to provide upwards of $8.5 billion in grants and as much as $11 billion in loans under the CHIPS and Science Act to expand semiconductor factories in the US. 

The Biden administration’s announcement is not a surprise, mainly because Intel has struggled for several years in its turnaround plan. The funding will significantly expand the construction of Intel chip factories in Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico, and Oregon.

According to the Commerce Department, Intel plans to use investment tax credits from the Treasury Department to cover a quarter of capital expenditures. 

Shares of Intel trading in premarket in New York rose as much as 4% on the news. Compared with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, Intel has been a serious laggard over the last five years. 

It’s been a less than wild ride for Intel as the rest of the chip market takes off…

The Biden administration’s Chips and Science Act plans to allocate $39 billion in grants, along with loans and guarantees amounting to $75 billion, to incentivize semiconductor companies to build manufacturing plants in the United States. 

Commerce Department Secretary Gina Raimondo said the Intel deal is “huge” and one of the largest investments ever in US semiconductor manufacturing.

“It means leading-edge semiconductors made in the United States of America,” Raimondo said, adding the nation’s share of leading-edge chip production will rise from 0% to 20% by 2030. 

Reuters expects the Biden administration to announce awards for South Korea’s Samsung and Taiwan’s TSMC in the coming weeks. 

Intel’s turnaround plan only needed a jumpstart with billions of dollars in taxpayer funds. Maybe the company shouldn’t blown billions of dollars on stock buybacks. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 09:40

“I Believe In The Black Swan”: Ron Paul And Tucker Talk Ukraine, US Interventionism, And ‘The Most Important Thing’

“I Believe In The Black Swan”: Ron Paul And Tucker Talk Ukraine, US Interventionism, And ‘The Most Important Thing’

Ron Paul and Tucker Carlson sat down for an in-depth and thought-provoking exchange spanning U.S. foreign policy, the philosophical underpinnings of government intervention, and the overarching consequences of monetary policy.

Subscribers to the Tucker Carlson Network can see the entire interview here…

On Ukraine

Paul, a longtime critic of US foreign policy – particularly interventionism, slammed America’s involvement in the Ukraine war. Carlson played a soundbite of Paul in 2014, when the United States was deep into the reformation of Ukraine.

“We’ve already spent $5 billion over the last ten years trying to pick and choose the leadership of Ukraine … And then we participated in the overthrow of the Yanukovych government,” (for which then-VP Joe Biden was point-man within the Obama administration).”

And I take a noninterventionist foreign policy position. It’s not our business. It doesn’t serve anybody’s interests. It’s part of the same thing that led us into the disaster in the Middle East. So a lot of people die and a lot of money is spent…

-Ron Paul, 2014

Carlson asked Paul just how he knew all that in 2014, to which Paul replied: “Sometimes the people who are running their operation gives you an idea, like like Victoria Nuland,” who he called “the worst kind of warmonger.”

“Who benefits from these bombs being dropped?” Paul continued.

On Monetary Policy and Economic Principles

According to Paul, America needs to “go through rough tumble times because the price always has to be paid,” adding “How do you liquidate the debt? You know, we can’t walk away from that debt.

When asked by Carlson how to do this, Paul said that the government would essentially inflate their way out of it.

You print money, and every time you print money, the value of the dollar goes down. So the value of the debt goes down … If you double the money supply and prices go up by 50%, it doesn’t work that way. But if you do that, the real debt, it goes down. So it’s a theft, it’s a tax, it’s evil.” -Ron Paul

“So you inflate your way out of it,” Carlson replied.

Yeah. And that’s that’s what will happen,” Paul said.

Non-Aggression

Carlson then asked a probing question regarding Paul’s comment that he speaks to the “remnant” of people who understand what’s going on, and who find each other – and that it’s more than just practical and political, but spiritual.

“I think that, that’s the same principle, you know, the non-aggression principle. Yeah. I think more Christians should know about non-aggression,” Paul replied, adding that he can’t stand lawmakers who “speak well and are dedicated to the Constitution and freedom and peace, and they go on and on. And, yes, they’re the biggest war mongers ever. They never voted for a nickel against the military and God complex, but they still call themselves a conservative constitutionalist.”

Changing Minds

While Ron Paul says he doesn’t have the perfect answer to what’s going on in Ukraine (“Well, now we have World War three on a doorstep. And every day we try to start another fight with Russia. And there we go. On and on. So it’s, it’s it’s not going to be stopped that way”), he said he’s encouraged by people changing their minds towards war.

Paul says that people are “starved for the truth,” and when they learn it, they learn that “things can get better.”

‘Don’t be a Counterfeiter”

According to Paul, it’s easy for him to discuss monetary policy because the US government is “a counterfeiter.”

“It’s illegal. The Constitution says that only gold. Silver can be legal tender. So. And here. Yeah. Guess what? 1930, 34, when, Roosevelt made gold illegal,” Paul said, adding that “it isn’t hard for people to understand counterfeit. And the other thing is, this is not hard for people to understand taxation. It’s a tax. It’s a vicious tax. It’s a tax on the poor in the middle class. And it enhances war. It enhances all this welfare.

How to Prepare

Carlson then asked Paul what the average person should do “if what you have predicted comes true,” which he thinks it “likely will” since “there’s no way to get out of the debt and a way to liquidate it except through inflation. Hyperinflation. How do you protect your family? Like, what practical steps do you take?

To which Paul replied, “I think people should know about how how oh, throughout history, even currently, we’re in the middle of it. You know, the depreciation of the money and what people can do so that they, they that I list is a real eye opener for me.

“But you can’t do that forever. I think we’re reaching this point where, some sudden thing is going to happen. I believe in that theory of the Black Swan.”

Drilling down, Paul suggested that people learn the “most important thing” to prepare:

Understand what’s going on in education, which is “why I happen to have a home schooling program, and I try to teach this stuff early because you can’t change it.”

Study and understand what’s going on in the world. Paul says that “you have your guns and you have stored food and all that, it’s not it’s not going to work,” adding “You have to know it’s coming and it’s very, very dangerous. And that’s why I love to see smaller units of government.” Essentially, the idea would be that in a “black swan” scenario, states would “act like they ought to act” and protect their people.

“But really, the most important thing you do is study and understand what’s going on.”

Own Gold. According to Paul (and what every ZH reader should already know), “Gold can protect you from inflation,” something that’s been “known for 6,000 years.”

“You know, just since the Bretton Woods broke down. August 15th, 1971. If you were betting on a gold coin or, you know, your dollar dollar lost 98% of its purchasing power and gold went from $35 up. And that was it. You know, it’s around 2000. Yeah, that’s a ways to go. Yeah. Because the dollar has a ways to go to. Yeah. They can’t they can’t they can restore the dollar. But but there has to be a liquidation of debt…”

“And it’ll come down,” Paul continued.

BUT (and it’s a big but…): “You can have your gold, you can have food, you can have your cabin and and guns and all this. I said it won’t matter if you don’t have your freedom.”

‘There Was A Coup And We Lost’

Paul lamented how big government is “taking stuff from us all the time,” and most of it comes from the middle class, who is “poor,” and “suffer the consequence of inflation.”

Very wealthy people don’t have to worry about the cost of a loaf of bread, but what they make, they, they they do have to, they have to worry about the big system. Because when the big system goes on, there’s not many people who are going to escape it. There will be some, Paul continued, adding that we have “deserted the constitution.

Paul says that the government has been taken over, the precise date of which was November 22nd, 1963 – the date JFK was assassinated.

“So you you say in this an I don’t think it’s a controversial statement anymore, but the CIA, of course, was involved in his murder,” Carlson said. “You said you believe that his fate was sealed on June 10th, 1963, when he gave a commencement address at American University. Fairly famous speech, which I plan to watch tonight, actually. About peace. Tell us what you mean.”

To which Paul replied, “Kennedy was controversial. He wasn’t always anti-war as he was leading up to his death. Yes. He had he had some foreign policies that I wouldn’t be endorsing. But he was he was coming this way,” adding “And, it became known that because he did speak out and I think it wasn’t that many days, you know, before his assassination.

Paul said that during all his time in Congress, he never heard anyone say that the CIA was involved in Kennedy’s assassination, aside from his close friends.

He did explain his take on the deep state…

At the end of the day, Paul says “the Republic is gone.

That said, Paul and Carlson agreed that one should have optimism and faith in the principles of liberty, non-aggression and personal responsibility, as Paul has a profound belief in the capacity for change and improvement.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 07:45

Appeals Court Reinstates Hold On Texas Immigration Law

Appeals Court Reinstates Hold On Texas Immigration Law

Authored by Caden Pearsen via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court issued an order late on Tuesday that reinstates a hold blocking Texas from enforcing a law that enables local law enforcement to arrest suspected illegal immigrants.

This decision came from a three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, voting 2-1 to overturn a previous ruling made by another panel of the same court that granted an administrative stay of the law’s implementation.

The prior 5th Circuit ruling had temporarily halted an injunction from a federal district court judge in Austin, who had blocked Texas from implementing the law. The Austin judge’s rationale was that such a law might pave the way for other states to enact their own immigration legislation.

Following the Tuesday night order, the 5th Circuit will now hear arguments on whether to stay the preliminary injunction pending appeal on Wednesday, according to the order.

“A majority of the panel has concluded that the administrative stay entered by a motions panel on March 2, 2024, should be lifted,” reads the unsigned order by the court.

Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham dissented from the majority opinion on Tuesday, advocating for the law to remain enforceable.

He wrote in his dissenting opinion, “I would leave that stay in place pending tomorrow’s oral argument on the question.”

This came hours after the U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority rejected an emergency request from the Biden administration to review the administrative stay ordered by the 5th Circuit’s prior panel.

The Department of Justice argued that the law is a clear violation of the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution and that states do not have the power to enforce immigration laws. The law, it argued, would cause chaos in immigration law.

In a win for Texas, the Supreme Court issued an order earlier on Tuesday that effectively enabled the law, known as SB4, to be enforced while lower courts deliberated.

The Supreme Court did not provide any reasons for the decision in its order, as is typical in emergency appeals. The decision passed on to the appeals court, and they issued a ruling on Tuesday evening.

Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh filed concurring opinions.

Justice Barrett wrote that the high court has never “never reviewed the decision of a court of appeals to enter—or not enter—an administrative stay.”

She added that an administrative stay is meant to be a “short-lived prelude to the main event,” which is a ruling on the motion for a stay pending appeal.

Justice Barrett also opined that it is “unwise to invite emergency litigation in this Court about whether a court of appeals abused its discretion at this preliminary step.”

The Supreme Court’s three Democrat-appointed justices, Elena Kagan, Ketanji Brown Jackson, and Sonia Sotomayor, raised concerns over the law in their dissenting opinions.

Justice Sotomayor said the order “invites further chaos and crisis in immigration enforcement.”

She also wrote that the law “upends the federal-state balance of power that has existed for over a century, in which the National Government has had exclusive authority over entry and removal of noncitizens.”

In December, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed SB4 into law after it was approved by the Republican-controlled state legislature.

SB4 allows local and state police to take into custody individuals who have entered the U.S. illegally from Mexico and imposes criminal penalties on them. The law also grants state judges the authority to order the deportation of illegal immigrants.

On Tuesday, Mexico’s government declared that it would not accept the return of illegal immigrants from Texas to its territory under any circumstances. Deportations of individuals who are not Mexican citizens are not required to be accepted by Mexico.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 07:20

Luxury Meltdown: Kering’s Gucci Warning Sends Shares Crashing Most Since 1992

Luxury Meltdown: Kering’s Gucci Warning Sends Shares Crashing Most Since 1992

Shares of French luxury group Kering tumbled as much as 15% on Wednesday—the largest drop in more than three decades. The luxury goods company issued a profit warning, expecting sales at Gucci, its biggest brand, to plunge 20% year-on-year in the first quarter, notably because of slumping demand across the Asia-Pacific region. 

“In a first half that Kering expected to be challenging, current trends lead the Group to estimate that its consolidated revenue in the first quarter of 2024 should decline by approximately 10% on a comparable basis, from last year’s first quarter,” Kering said in a statement.

The statement continued, “This performance primarily reflects a steeper sales drop at Gucci, notably in the Asia-Pacific region. Gucci comparable revenues in the first quarter are expected to be down by nearly 20% year on year.”

The luxury slowdown originates in Asia, mainly China, whose economic downturn has spooked consumers. 

Shares of Kering in Paris plunged as much as 15%, the most significant drop since 1992. 

Analysts at Jefferies, led by James Grzinic, told clients: 

“Kering’s warning largely reflects a sharp deterioration of Gucci’s resonance in Asia Pacific, and China in particular. This comes at a time when the transition to the De Sarno signature remains in its early stages. While a mixed Chinese yuan backdrop may have added an extra challenge, the news suggests a deeper trough.”

Vital Knowledge analysts said: 

“Gucci has been encountering some company-specific problems for a few quarters, but this update will raise further worries about consumer spending and China’s economy.” 

Here’s what other Wall Street analysts are saying (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

AlphaValue (add)

  • Analyst Jie Zhang will lower her earnings expectations for 2024 on the back of the group’s unexpected trading update
  • Gucci’s recovery “will need some time to achieve, and the continued higher investment will weigh on the brand’s profitability throughout the year,” Zhang writes in a note

Citi (buy)

  • “Gucci suffered significantly from being in the midst of a major design and management transition, with weak performance of carryover items and limited penetration from early products,” analyst Thomas Chauvet writes
  • While consensus earnings estimates had been slashed by high- single digits just over a month ago on the heels of the company’s forecast for a y/y decline in operating income, expects company fiscal 2024 Ebit/EPS estimates to be reduced by ~15% “solely due to Gucci, with the likelihood of slower-than- expected brand turnaround”
  • Implications for the sector include “downside” risk for 1H 2024 sales

RBC (outperform)

  • Analyst Piral Dadhania says “patience still required,” with Gucci in early stages of a turnaround 
  • Revenue guidance is much worse than expected, especially in APAC region
  • Gucci’s potential continues to be unfulfilled, but with right strategic initiatives in areas such as China and brand elevation, rebuilding its product offer especially in handbags, and change in creative and executive leadership, the growth profile can improve over time

Morgan Stanley (equal-weight) 

  • Luxury brands/groups performance likely to have polarized further in 1Q vs 2023, and with Kering guiding for first-quarter comparable revenue to decline by about 10% it will be “in the bottom of the pack,” according to analyst Edouard Aubin
  • Kering didn’t provide indications for its other brands, but implies that non-Gucci businesses saw organic sales growth as flat to slightly down y/y

Jefferies (hold)

  • “Whilst a mixed CNY backdrop may have added an extra challenge, the news suggests a deeper trough and material” estimate cuts, analyst James Grzinic writes 
  • Says legacy Gucci product is not resonating with consumers, while transition to De Sarno signature product is in “early stages”
  • Thinks flattish 1Q sales for non-Gucci brands points to market share losses
  • Investors likely weigh whether Kering’s “M&A ambitions” in the near term are affected

Bloomberg Intelligence

  • “Preliminary 1Q guidance for a 10% comparable sales downturn flags a 20% drop at Gucci (vs. consensus’ 6.5% decline) on Asia softness,” Analyst Deborah Aitken writes
  • Says possible 2024 EPS estimates may be cut by 6%-8%, even with the other 50% of the portfolio flat and better than expected
  • “Gucci matters most to operating and cash flow contribution (33% margin in 2023 vs. 24% for Kering),” she says

Kering’s profit warning is an ominous sign for luxury stocks.

MSCI Europe Textiles Apparel & Luxury Goods has peaked. 

“European stock investors have become more upbeat on economic growth and the earnings backdrop. Yet cyclical sectors such as luxury and autos are affected by China’s sluggish rebound. That sets up luxury, a key European growth sector, for a disappointing 1Q reporting season, and a crack in bullish sentiment for the region’s stocks,” Bloomberg’s Heather Burke noted. 

Separately, Swiss watch exports recorded the first decline in three years, primarily due to a slowdown in shipments to China and Hong Kong.  

Source: Bloomberg

China has been the engine of global growth, but its deflationary pressures and other mounting economic troubles are spreading beyond the world’s second-largest economy to Europe. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 06:55

From Capitalism To Corporatism

From Capitalism To Corporatism

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

In the 1990s, it was common to ridicule the government for being technologically backward.

We were all gaining access to fabulous things, including the web, apps, search tools and social media. But governments at all levels were stuck in the past using IBM mainframes and large floppy disks.

I recall the days of thinking government would never catch up to the glories and might of the market itself. I wrote several books on it, full of techno-optimism.

The new tech sector had a libertarian ethos about it. They didn’t care about the government and its bureaucrats. They didn’t have lobbyists in Washington. They were the new technologies of freedom and didn’t care much about the old analogue world of command and control. They’d usher in a new age of people power.

Here we sit a quarter-century later with documented evidence that the opposite happened. The private sector collects the data that the government buys and uses as a tool of control.

It’s determined by algorithms agreed upon by a combination of government agencies, university centers, various nonprofits and the companies themselves. The whole thing has become an oppressive blob.

Money Flows to Power

Here is Google’s new headquarters in Reston, Virginia:

And here’s Amazon’s proposed HQ2, in Arlington, Virginia:

Every major company that once stayed far away from Washington now owns a similar giant palace in or around D.C., and they collect tens of billions in government revenue.

Government has now become a major customer, if not the main customer, of the services provided by the large social media and tech companies. They’re advertisers but also massive purchasers of the main product too.

Show Me the Money

Amazon, Microsoft and Google are the biggest winners of government contracts, according to a report from Tussell. Amazon hosts the data of the National Security Agency with a $10 billion contract, and gets hundreds of millions from other governments.

We don’t know how much Google has received from the U.S. government, but it’s surely a substantial share of the $694 billion the federal government hands out in contracts.

Microsoft also has a large share of government contracts. In 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense awarded the Joint Warfighter Cloud Capability contract to Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Oracle.

The contract is worth up to $9 billion and provides the Department of Defense with cloud services. It’s just the beginning. The Pentagon is looking for a successor plan that will be bigger.

Actually, we don’t even know the full extent of this but it is gargantuan. Yes, these companies provide the regular consumer services but a main and even decisive customer is government itself.

As a result, the old laughingstock line about backward tech at government agencies is no more. Today government is a main purchaser of tech services and is a top driver of the AI boom too.

It’s one of the best-kept secrets in American public life, hardly talked about at all by mainstream media. Most people still think of tech companies as free-enterprise rebels. It’s not true.

The same situation of course exists for pharmaceutical companies. This relationship dates even further back in time and is even tighter to the point that there is no real distinction between the interests of the FDA/CDC and large pharmaceutical companies.

Consumer Preference Doesn’t Matter

In this framework, we might also tag the agricultural sector, which is dominated by cartels that have driven out family farms. It’s a government plan and massive subsidies that determine what is produced and in what quantity.

It’s not because of consumers that your Coke is filled with a scary product called “high-fructose corn syrup,” why your candy bar and danish have the same and why there’s corn in your gas tank. This is entirely the product of government agencies and budgets.

In free enterprise, the old rule is that the customer is always right. That’s a wonderful system sometimes called consumer sovereignty. Its advent in history, dating perhaps from the 16th century, represented a tremendous advance over the old guild system of feudalism and certainly a major step over ancient despotisms. It’s been the rallying cry of market-based economics ever since.

What happens, however, when government itself becomes a main and even dominant customer?

The ethos of private enterprise is thereby changed. No longer primarily interested in serving the general public, enterprise turns its attention to serving its powerful masters in the halls of the state, gradually weaving close relationships and forming a ruling class that becomes a conspiracy against the public.

The Old Binaries Have Broken Down

This used to go by the name “crony capitalism,” which perhaps describes some of the problems on a small scale. This is another level of reality that needs an entirely different name. That name is corporatism, a coinage from the 1930s and a synonym for fascism back before that became a curse word due to wartime alliances.

Corporatism is a specific thing, not capitalism and not socialism but a system of private property ownership with cartelized industry that primarily serves the state.

The old binaries of the public and private sector — widely assumed by every main ideological system — have become so blurred that they no longer make much sense. And yet we’re ideologically and philosophically unprepared to deal with this new world with anything like intellectual insight.

Not only that, it can be extremely difficult even to tell the good guys from the bad guys in the news stream. We hardly know anymore for whom to cheer or boo in the great struggles of our time.

That’s how mixed up everything has become. We’ve clearly traveled a long way from the 1990s!

Monetary Corporatism

Of course in 1913, we saw the advent of a particularly egregious public-private partnership with the Federal Reserve, in which private banks merged into a unified front and agreed to service U.S. government debt obligations in exchange for bailout guarantees. This monetary corporatism continues to vex us to this day, as does the military-industrial complex.

How is it different from the past? It’s different in degree and reach.

The corporatist machine now manages the main products and services in our civilian life including the entire way we get information, how we work, how we bank, how we contact friends and how we buy.

It’s the manager of the whole of our lives in every respect, and has become the driving force of product innovation and design. It’s become a tool for surveillance in the most intimate aspects of our lives, including financial information and listening devices we’ve willingly installed in our own homes.

It’s become a main curator and censor of our news and social media presence and postings. It is in a position to say which companies and products succeed and which ones fail. It can kill apps in a flash if the well-placed person does not like what they are doing.

It can order other apps to add or subtract to a blacklist based on political opinions. It can tell even the smallest company to comply or face death by lawfare. It can seize on any individual and make him a public enemy based entirely on an opinion or action that runs contrary to regime priorities.

In short, this corporatism — in all its iterations including the regulatory state and the patent war chest that maintains and enforces monopoly — is the core source of all the current despotism.

COVID: A Trial Run

It obtained its first full trial run with the lockdowns of 2020, when tech companies and media joined in the ear-splitting propaganda campaigns to shelter in place, cancel holidays and not visit Grandma in the hospital and nursing home.

It cheered as millions of small businesses were destroyed and big-box stores thrived as distributors of approved products, while vast swaths of the workforce were called nonessential and put on welfare.

This was the corporatist state at work, with a large corporate sector wholly acquiescent to regime priority and a government fully dedicated to rewarding its industrial partners in every sector that went along with the political priority at the moment.

The trigger for the construction of the vast machinery that rules our lives was far back in time and always begins the same way: with a seemingly inauspicious government contract.

How well I recall those days in the 1990s when public schools first started to buy computers from Microsoft. Did alarm bells go off? Not for me. I had a typical attitude of any pro-business libertarian: Whatever business wants to do, it should do.

Surely it’s up to the enterprise to sell to all willing buyers, even if that includes governments. In any case, how in the world would one prevent this? Government contracting with private business has been the norm from time immemorial. No harm done.

And yet it turns out that vast harm was done. This was just the beginning of what became one of the world’s largest industries, far more powerful and decisive over industrial organization than old-fashioned producer-to-consumer markets.

These gigantic for-profit and public trading corporations became the operational foundation of the surveillance-driven corporatist complex.

What to Do?

We’re nowhere near coming to terms with the implications of this. It goes way beyond and fully transcends the old debates between capitalism and socialism. Indeed that is not what this is about.

The focus on that might be theoretically interesting but it has little or no relevance to the current reality in which public and private have fully merged and intruded into every aspect of our lives, and with fully predictable results: economic decline for the many and riches for the few.

This is also why neither the left nor the right, nor Democrats or Republicans, nor capitalists or socialists, seem to be speaking clearly to the moment in which we live.

The dominating force on both the national and global scene today is techno-corporatism that intrudes itself into our food, our medicine, our media, our information flows, our homes and all the way down to the hundreds of surveillance tools that we carry around in our pockets.

I truly wish these companies were genuinely private, but they’re not. They’re de facto state actors. More precisely, they all work hand-in-glove and which is the hand and which is the glove is no longer clear.

Coming to terms with this intellectually is the major challenge of our times. Dealing with it juridically and politically seems like a much more daunting task, to say the least. The problem is complicated by the drive to purge serious dissent at all levels of society.

How did American capitalism become American corporatism? A little at a time and then all at once.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 06:30

French Units In Ukraine Will Be ‘Priority’ Target, Warns Russia

French Units In Ukraine Will Be ‘Priority’ Target, Warns Russia

Russian intelligence has alleged that France is preparing a military contingent of 2,000 troops to be deployed on the ground in Ukraine. The claim was made by Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin on Tuesday, and was quickly picked up in international headlines, also given it is rare for him to make statements like this.

“The current leadership of the country [France] does not care about the deaths of ordinary French people or about the concerns of the generals,” Naryshkin said as translated in TASS. “According to information coming to the Russian SVR, a contingent to be sent to Ukraine is already being prepared. Initially, it will include around 2,000 troops.”

Illustrative image, Ukrainian troops in training exercises with Western partner forces, via AFP.

The Russian intelligence chief further said the French military “fears that such a large military unit cannot be transferred and stationed in Ukraine unnoticed.”

“It will thus become a legitimate priority target for attacks by the Russian armed forces. This means that it will suffer the fate of all the French who have ever come to the Russian world with a sword,” Naryshkin emphasized. The past months have seen instances where Moscow claimed its forces took out French mercenaries in Kharkiv, but neither the Ukraine nor France ever verified this. Russia is now saying it will target foreign troops in Ukraine as a “priority”. 

He didn’t elaborate further or offer anything in the way of verification or proof, but it comes after French President Emmanuel Macron sparked fierce debate in Europe last month by telling allies they shouldn’t rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine. “Nothing should be excluded,” Macron had said. “We will do everything that we must so that Russia does not win.”

While most Western allies have voiced their rejection of a scenario of sending NATO forces to Ukraine, officials have been urging more rapid production of weapons. Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni is the latest to say that deploying Western ground troops to Ukraine must “be avoided at any cost” in Tuesday remarks.

On Monday European Council President Charles Michel called for Europe to shift to a “war economy” mode in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. “If we do not get the EU’s response right and do not give Ukraine enough support to stop Russia, we are next. We must therefore be defense-ready and shift to a ‘war economy’ mode,” Michel stated in an op-ed published in European newspapers and the Euractiv website.

According to details of the latest efforts to free up more EU funds for Ukraine:

He [Michel] urged countries to facilitate investments in defense — including by considering changing the mandate of the EU lending arm, the European Investment Bank, to allow it to support Europe’s defense industry.

EU countries approved an agreement on Monday to increase the EU’s support for Ukraine’s armed forces by 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) — amid warnings that Kyiv’s forces need more resources to hold the line against a larger Russian army as a $60 billion US aid package for Ukraine is being held up by Congress.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell hailed the hasty cash injection by saying, “With the fund, we will continue to support Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s war of aggression with whatever it takes and for as long as we need to.” But on the battlefield things continue to look very bad for Ukraine…

Meanwhile, more negative coverage belatedly seeping into US mainstream media on just how desperate and dire the situation is for Ukraine forces at this point…

Many war analysts have said that Western efforts to ramp up arms and money to Kiev are unlikely to make a difference, and that Russia has enough ammo and manpower to sustain the fight possibly for years to come. President Putin this week has floated the idea of creating a security buffer zone to prevent drone and rocket cross-border attacks on Russian territory. This would involve seizing more Ukrainian territory, especially along its northern border areas.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 05:45

Sliding Swiss Watch Exports “Could Be Negative For Luxury Stocks” 

Sliding Swiss Watch Exports “Could Be Negative For Luxury Stocks” 

Swiss watch exports have declined for the second time in three years, primarily due to a slowdown in shipments to China and Hong Kong. Sliding demand for luxury timepieces comes as the world’s second-largest economy suffers from a litany of economic challenges, including an underwhelming pace of economic growth, deflationary pressure, a property rout, a vicious bear market in stocks, and worsening Sino-US relations. 

China’s economic downturn has made consumers more cautious about spending. Perhaps the direct result of this is evident in a new report from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry that shows exports of timepieces from Switzerland fell 3.8% by value in February to $2.4 billion versus the same month a year ago. This is the second monthly drop since Coivd. The number of watches also fell 5.2% to 1.2 million units. 

Source: Bloomberg

The trade group said it was the first significant fall “after two years of steady growth,” attributing the drop to sliding demand in Mainland China. 

Exports to China and Hong Kong, the second and third largest markets, plunged 25.4% and 19%, respectively. This means China’s economic slowdown is rippling across the world to European watchmakers. 

Even with some more recent positive macroeconomic indicators indicating that the country’s GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year will be around 5%, the real estate crunch has throttled consumer spending. 

China has served as the engine of global growth, but its deflationary pressures, which result in sliding prices, hit corporate profits and prompt consumers to delay spending. The market is realizing this, as Richemont and Swatch Group shares drop 3%. 

Are European luxury stocks about to peak?

In a note to clients, RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania warned that the news of slumping Swiss watch exports could be a negative read for luxury stocks. 

Dadhania said, “This could read across incrementally negative for hard luxury stocks.” 

“Conversely, we note the UK and to a lesser extent US regional performance could be viewed as stable to incrementally less negative for Watches of Switzerland,” he added. 

At the same time, indications are emerging that the market for pre-owned watches may be bottoming. 

Meanwhile, there are emerging signs that the market for secondhand timepieces is bottoming. However, deflationary pressures from China and a slowdown in shipments could exert downward pressure on prices. Nonetheless, deflationary forces from China might lead to additional price pressures. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 04:15

Breakthrough Catalyst Turns Sewage Into Clean Energy

Breakthrough Catalyst Turns Sewage Into Clean Energy

By Brian Westenhaus of OilPrice.com

Pohang University of Science & Technology scientists have developed a catalyst for the urea oxidation reaction, enhancing hydrogen generation efficiency. Professor Kangwoo Cho and PhD candidate Jiseon Kim from the Division of Environmental Science & Engineering at Pohang University (POSTECH) collaborated with the Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) to devise a novel catalyst aimed at enhancing the efficiency of reactions using contaminated municipal sewage to produce hydrogen — a noteworthy green energy source.

The research has been recently featured in the international journal Advanced Functional Materials.

Schematic Depicting the catalytic reaction devised by the team that catalyzes the urea oxidation reaction to assist the water electrolysis reaction. Image Credit: Pohang University of Science & Technology. For more images click the press release link here. For a bit more info try the abstract or purchase the study paper.

With the growing environmental concerns of pollution associated with fossil fuel, hydrogen has garnered increased interest. Water electrolysis technology is a known sustainable process that leverages Earth’s abundant water to produce hydrogen.

However, the concurrent oxygen evolution reaction during hydrogen production is notably slow, resulting in a considerably low energy conversion efficiency.

But lately, the academic community has been tackling this issue by integrating the urea oxidation reaction with the hydrogen generation reaction.

Urea, is a pollutant found in urine, that releases a significant amount of energy during its oxidation process, offering a potential means to enhance both the efficiency of hydrogen generation and the purification of toilet wastewater.

That made it necessary to find a catalyst that can effectively drive the urea oxidation reaction, thereby amplifying the efficiency of both hydrogen generation and wastewater treatment.

In pursuit of increased efficiency in the urea oxidation reaction, the team created a catalyst known as nickel-iron-oxalate (O-NFF). This catalyst combines iron (Fe) and oxalate on nickel (Ni) metal, resulting in an expansive surface area characterized by nanometer-sized particles in fragment form.

This unique property enables the catalyst to adsorb more reactants, facilitating an accelerated urea oxidation reaction.

In experiments, the O-NFF catalyst devised by the team successfully lowered the voltage required for hydrogen generation to 1.47 V RHE (at 0.5 A/cm2) (Reversible Hydrogen Electrode refers to a standard hydrogen electrode, representing a potential of 0V in the standard state—an equilibrium between hydrogen gas and liquid hydrogen) and exhibited a high reaction rate even when tested in a mixed solution of potassium hydroxide (1 M) and urea (0.33 M) with a Tafel slope of 12.1 mV/dec (The rate of electrochemical reaction; a lower value indicates greater catalyst activity).

The researchers further validated the catalyst’s efficacy by confirming its promotion of the urea oxidation reaction through photoelectron/X-ray absorption spectroscopy using a radiation photo accelerator.

Professor Kangwoo Cho who led the research commented, “We have developed a catalyst capable of purifying municipal sewage while simultaneously enhancing the efficiency of hydrogen production, a green energy source.”

He added, “We anticipate that O-NFF catalysts, synthesized from metals and organics, will contribute to the improved efficiency of industrial electrolysis hydrogen production.”

The research was sponsored by the Mid-Career Researcher Program and the Hydrogen Source Technology Development Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea, and the National Supercomputing Center.

* * *

This is very interesting indeed. The catalyst would offer another revenue stream from treating sewage by yielding a commercial product. There is also the water reduction effect, the hydrogen out the oxygen freed cuts down on the total volume.

The rest of the sewage stream is rich in potassium and phosphorus. Two very important food production fertilizers that are getting increasingly expensive to agriculture.

Then there is the paper-based wood pulp that could be recycled.

The catch in all this is the bacterial and viral loads plus the food particles coming along with the water and those useful chemicals.

Its important to keep working at getting these elements in an economically self-supporting total recycling system. We’re not there quite yet. But it’s a very worthy goal that deserves a continuous push until the profits in sewage can return to the economy.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/20/2024 – 03:30