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Bonds Battered, Bitcoin Bid, But The Dow Soars To Best October Ever

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Bonds Battered, Bitcoin Bid, But The Dow Soars To Best October Ever

Treasury yields are up for 3 straight months, Gold is down in price for 7 straight months, and despite the biggest drop in The Fed’s balance sheet since July 2020, stocks soared…

Ugly sentiment signals from Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed this morning did not provide the normal ‘bad news is good news’ juice and short-term rates markets also shifted hawkishly ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

But on the month, the market appears to be pricing in a more aggressive hawkish fed followed by a more aggressive dovish Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

With 75bps locked in for Wednesday and the odds of 75bps in December also rising again…

Source: Bloomberg

But on the month, the big story is in stocks with The Dow smashing higher as Nasdaq underperformed…

It was the best monthly return for the Dow since Jan 1976 (+14.41%), the 2nd best month for The Dow since 1936, but the Best October for The Dow ever…

And we note that on the day, when The Treasury announced bigger than expected borrowing, bonds and stocks took a spill in the last hour today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries tanked as stocks soared in October with the long-end significantly underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y yield wavered around 4.00% all month…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3m10Y yield spread finally inverted this month (though steepened back out today)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the month very modestly lower (basically unchanged), despite a few wild swings during October…

Source: Bloomberg

The Brazilian Real interestingly rallied today after far-left Lula won the presidential election (after opening significantly weaker, as expected). Presumably some uncertainty reduced and the fact that a right-leaning parliament will basically gridlock any of his most ‘socialist’ extreme poliicies…

Source: Bloomberg

We do note also that this rip higher also filled the gap from the 24th, so don’t hold your breath.

Most of the crypto majors rallied in October with Ethereum notably outperforming Bitcoin…

Source: Bloomberg

The last week has seen ETH surge relative to BTC…

Source: Bloomberg

In commodity-land, crude prices managed strong gains but copper and precious metals were basically unch…

Oil prices fell on the day amid some notable volatility and Biden’s threats…

But NatGas was the big mover, ripping over 11% higher on the day amid cold weather fears…

Finally, bear in mind that we have seen this pattern of stocks ramping on ‘pivot/pause’ hope while STIRs continues to shift hawkishly before…

Source: Bloomberg

And it did not end well the last two times.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 16:00

Who’s Really Ahead In The Pennsylvania Senate Race?

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Who’s Really Ahead In The Pennsylvania Senate Race?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Let’s discuss what 538 says about the Pennsylvania Senate race and why its take is likely to be far off the mark…

538 Pennsylvania Senate forecast October 30, 8:28 PM, Mish annotations

Which Polls are Influencing Pennsylvania 

538 Senate Polls October 30, 8:28 PM, Mish annotations

FiveThirtyEight claims to weight the newer polls. But if so, it appears barely noticeable. 

Four Recent Polls

  • Co-Efficient: Oz +3

  • Wick: Oz +2

  • YouGov: Fetterman +2 

  • Insider Advantage: Oz +3

The average is Oz +1.5

The average of the three most recent polls is Oz + 2.67

I fail to see how this can possibly translate to a 58% chance for Fetterman. 

It will be interesting to see what the next Trafalgar poll is but I bet it’s not Fetterman +2.

What’s the Problem Here?

  • 538 does not properly factor in momentum.

  • 538 does not properly factor in the debate, a disaster for Fetterman.

The biggest problem is models don’t think! They are trained in generalities as if the generalities are what matters this time. Such generalities failed a couple of elections in a row for reasons pollsters do not understand. 

The 538 model has an additional problem in its inability to see how the debate impacted the odds. It needs more polls to verify the obvious.

Of course, the problem with most humans is they think about the wrong things or believe what they want to believe. 

As more polls come in, 538 will likely get closer and closer. But if there were no new polls, the 538 Pennsylvania odds probably would remain as silly as they seem now.

Things can still change, in either direction, but the most likely direction is towards Republicans.

Good News For Republicans

Senator Chris Coons, Democrat from Delaware, told Fox News Sunday that Democrats are running on their record. 

That should seal it.

Joking aside, there is a lot at stake here. 

If Democrats were to magically retain the House and Senate, they would unleash an inferno of free money and energy inflation, perhaps topping what we saw in the 70s.

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 15:46

Yields Surge To Session High After Treasury Unexpectedly Projects It Will Issue An Additional $150BN In Q4 Debt

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Yields Surge To Session High After Treasury Unexpectedly Projects It Will Issue An Additional $150BN In Q4 Debt

At a time when QT is rapidly shrinking the amount of total reserves, if barely denting the outstanding reverse repos…

… as the Fed’s balance sheet just shrank by $72BN in the past month, its biggest decline since the early days of the covid crisis

… many have asked just where will the demand come from to purchase all those trillions in debt that have to be sold over the next two years during which time the Fed’s balance sheet will (supposedly) continue to shrink, and just when will the Treasury commit to TSY buybacks since the Fed won’t do more QE for at least a few more months (until the BLS admits just how ugly US payrolls truly are, a few weeks after the midterms) as the Treasury market continues to fracture and break with every week that nothing happens.

Well, moments ago the Treasury just added fuel to that particularly fiery question when in its latest Marketable Borrowing Estimate it uneviled that in the current October – December 2022 quarter, the US Treasury now expects to borrow $550 billion in marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. The borrowing estimate is $150 billion higher than announced in August 2022, and is due primarily due to changes to projections of fiscal activity, greater than projected discount on marketable securities, and lower non-marketable financing.  

It doesn’t end there of course, and in its first estimate for borrowing during the January – March 2023 quarter, the Treasury expects to borrow $578 billion in new debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $500 billion. Said otherwise, another $1.1 trillion in debt issuance in the next six months.

Source: US Treasury

As for the historical, July – September 2022 quarter, the Treasury borrowed a relatively modest $457 billion in marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $636 billion. In August 2022, Treasury estimated borrowing of $444 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion. The $13 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from lower net fiscal flows, somewhat offset by the lower end-of-quarter cash balance.

As usual, the Treasury will announce additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding this Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 2, 2022, just hours before the FOMC announcement.

The news that the Treasury will need to issue an additional $150BN was disappointed the market, and sent yields to session highs, while stocks and other risk assets briefly tumbled.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 15:36

Turley: How Elon Musk Should Shape Twitter

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Turley: How Elon Musk Should Shape Twitter

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the New York Post on the media meltdown over the Musk takeover at Twitter. The column again suggests a way for Musk to make a clean break from the censorship culture and apparatchiks at Twitter: the First Amendment Option

Musk has already made great progress toward restoring free speech on the platform with the firing of the two chief censors at the company, but the deconstruction of one of the world’s largest censorship systems will be a challenge in the weeks and months ahead.

Here is the column:

News reports last week seemed to start out like a bar joke: The richest man in the world walks in carrying a sink . . .

Of course, it was a joke — a colossal joke. The question is whom the joke is on.

For Elon Musk, the punch line was appropriately delivered on Twitter, the company he took over Friday at an inflated price. Calling himself “Chief Twit,” Musk posted the video with the caption “Entering Twitter HQ — let that sink in!”

For the Musk-phobic, it was as funny as a drive-by shooting. CNN analyst Juliette Kayyem denounced Musk’s taunt as “fundamentally cruel.” After all, when Musk was first reported to be buying the company, employees were so traumatized that leadership had to offer emotional support just to “get through the week.”

The reason is less the fear of Musk bringing bathroom fixture than free speech into San Francisco headquarters.

Twitter has created one of the largest censorship systems in world history — a system widely condemned for a pattern of political bias and viewpoint intolerance.

Outgoing CEO Parag Agrawal is unabashedly hostile to traditional views of free speech. Soon after he took over, he pledged to regulate content and said the company would “focus less on thinking about free speech” because “speech is easy on the Internet. Most people can speak. Where our role is particularly emphasized is who can be heard.”

For employees who are true believers of this censorship scheme, the joke no doubt feels like it’s on them. The censorship skill set may not be quite as much in demand in a Musk-owned firm. While Facebook, Google and other companies are still committed to corporate censorship, Musk has pledged to restore free speech principles to Twitter.

But the joke may still be on Musk if he yields to Twitter’s corporate culture or the mainstream media’s unrelenting pressure. Democratic leaders like Hillary Clinton have turned from private censorship to good old-fashioned state censorship.

Clinton has called on foreign governments to step in and pass laws that would force Twitter to continue to censor opposing views. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern recently repeated this call for global censorship at the United Nations to the applause of diplomats and media alike.

Musk may have to yield to such domestic laws, but he can use his platform to inform citizens of those countries they are being censored and controlled in what they are allowed to read.

The most important thing in America is for Musk to hit the ground running at Twitter.

First, he needs to order the preservation of all records. There are well-supported examples of biased censorship, including the burying of The Post’s Hunter Biden laptop story before the election. There are also allegations of back-channel communications from the government to manage a type of censorship-by-surrogate system to evade the First Amendment.

Second, Musk should focus on the First Amendment as a model for Twitter’s content-management policy.

It has become a mantra on the left that free-speech objections to social-media censorship are meritless because the First Amendment does not apply to private corporations.

This is a knowingly cynical and senseless argument. The First Amendment has never been the sole and exclusive measure of free speech. It concerns the greatest threat to free speech at the time of the founding. But corporate censorship on communication platforms is an equal, if not greater, threat today to free-speech values.

Musk could call these anti-free-speech advocates’ bluff. Former President Barack Obama flogged this false line at Stanford in April. He started by declaring himself “pretty close to a First Amendment absolutist.” He then called for the censorship of anything he considered “disinformation,” including “lies, conspiracy theories, junk science, quackery, racist tracts and misogynist screeds.”

Like many others on the left, Obama claims to be a free-speech champion but narrowly confines such fealty to government censorship. He emphasized, “The First Amendment is a check on the power of the state. It doesn’t apply to private companies like Facebook or Twitter.”

While the First Amendment does not bind private corporations, there is nothing preventing one — like Twitter — voluntarily assuming such protections for free speech. Even with some adjustments for a private forum, what I call the First Amendment Option would create a default in favor of free speech that doesn’t exist on these platforms.

There’d be narrow exceptions for threatening, unlawful and a few other proscribed categories of speech. Twitter can tap into a long line of First Amendment jurisprudence limiting the scope of such speech regulations. Even with a private company’s greater flexibility, a First Amendment-based policy would establish much better protections for free speech.

In other words, Musk could show up at Twitter with precisely the standard long dismissed by censorship advocates — and then let that sink in.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 15:08

Russia Says US Lowering ‘Nuclear Threshold’

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Russia Says US Lowering ‘Nuclear Threshold’

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

A Russian official said Saturday that the US is lowering the “nuclear threshold” by sending an upgraded version of its B61 nuclear bomb to NATO bases in Europe.

The B61 is the US’s primary thermonuclear gravity bomb, and it is being modernized into a newer weapon known as the B61-12. Politico reported last week that the US told NATO allies at a recent meeting that it is deploying the B-61-12 to Europe to replace older bombs by this December, a faster timeline than the originally planned spring deployment.

“We cannot ignore the plans to modernize nuclear weapons, those free-fall bombs that are in Europe,” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, according to Russia’s RIA news agency.

B61-12, military file image

The US has approximately 100 B61s currently stored at air bases in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the B61-12s carry a lower yield and are more accurate than older B61s.

“The United States is modernizing them, increasing their accuracy and reducing the power of the nuclear charge, that is, they turn these weapons into ‘battlefield weapons,’ thereby reducing the nuclear threshold,” Grushko said.

The B61s deployed in Europe are part of the US’s nuclear arsenal that are considered tactical weapons, which have smaller yields than strategic ones. The US has an estimated 200 tactical nuclear weapons, while Russia is said to have about 2,000. US tactical nuclear weapons range from between 0.3 and 170 kilotons (the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of 15 kilotons).

The plans to deploy the B61-12s to Europe by December have puzzled experts as the accelerated timeline does little but raises tensions with Russia. The Pentagon insists its B61-12 plans have nothing to do with the current situation and denies the characterization of the Politico report.

“Modernization of US B61 nuclear weapons has been underway for years, and plans to safely and responsibly swap out older weapons for the upgraded B61-12 versions are part of a long-planned and scheduled modernization effort,” a Pentagon spokesman said, according to Reuters. “It is in no way linked to current events in Ukraine and was not sped up in any way.”

Another part of the B61-12 upgrade is that it will allow the bomb to be carried by all US and allied bombers and fighter jets. The revelation of the planned deployment came as NATO was holding its nuclear Steadfast Noon exercises, which are due to conclude on Sunday. The drills were hosted by Belgium and involved 14 NATO members and about 60 aircraft that simulated dropping nuclear bombs.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 14:28

Iran Protests Continue As Demonstrators Defy Warnings From Government

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Iran Protests Continue As Demonstrators Defy Warnings From Government

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Widespread protests continued across Iran for a 45th consecutive day on Sunday, despite warnings from security officials that they would use tougher measures to crack down on demonstrators.

Protests over the weekend continued despite a warning from the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Maj Gen Hossein Salami, on Saturday that he would use unprecedented force in an effort to quell them.

“Today is the end of the riots. Do not go to the streets anymore!” Salami reportedly said.

 “We are telling our youth, the minority of you who have been deceived, stop the evil acts. This ominous sedition will bring no happy ending to you. Do not ruin your future!

Elsewhere, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was reported as saying by state media: “Security is the red line of the Islamic Republic, and we will not allow the enemy to implement in any way its plans to undermine this valuable national asset.”

Yet demonstrators, increasingly angered by the authorities’ attempts to suppress their protests against the Islamist government, ignored the warnings and took to the streets over the weekend.

Demonstrations across the country were initially sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in Tehran on Sept. 16 while in the custody of Iran’s “morality police” after she was arrested over her “inappropriate attire. Police have said she suffered a heart attack while in custody.

Over time, the demonstrations have evolved into calls from Iranians for more freedom and demands to overthrow the Islamic regime and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, posing the most serious challenge to the country’s clerical leaders in years.

Exile Iranians of the National Council of Resistance of Iran gather in front of the embassy of Iran in Berlin, Germany, on Sept. 20, 2022, after the death of an Iranian woman held by the country’s morality police. (Michael Sohn/AP Photo)

Authorities ‘Kidnapping Students, Particularly Girls’

Video footage posted on social media showed violent confrontations between students and riot police at universities amid reports of raids on student dormitories that have seen students taken away in buses to state detention or banned from campus indefinitely.

In one video, students at the Islamic Azad University-North branch can be seen throwing rocks at IRGC forces and plainclothes agents. Another video posted to Twitter shows security forces using teargas and gunfire to stop students from demonstrating.

The Epoch Times has not been able to verify the video footage.

Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the NCRI for the period to transfer sovereignty to the people of Iran, wrote on Twitter on Sunday that IRGC forces have been using pellet guns and live ammunition to crack down on demonstrations at universities while simultaneously “kidnapping students, particularly girls.”

This, she said, shows the “regime’s desperation in face of Iran protests.”

According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), 283 protesters, including 44 children, have been killed so far since protests broke out across the country. Another 14,052 individuals have been arrested, according to HRANA’s latest update.

Iranian authorities have accused the United States, Israel, Britain, and Saudi Arabia of being behind the anti-government protests that are destabilizing the country, claims leaders of those nations have denied.

In September, the Biden administration announced sanctions on Iran’s morality police “for abuse and violence against Iranian women and the violation of the rights of peaceful Iranian protesters.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 12:27

Friday’s “Sucker-Punch” Rally & Wednesday’s ‘Elephant In The Room’ Event Risk

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Friday’s “Sucker-Punch” Rally & Wednesday’s ‘Elephant In The Room’ Event Risk

On Friday morning, SpotGamma warned traders to be on the lookout for a “sucker punch” rally over-stimulated by 0DTE flow, and markets were given a full-on “uppercut”.

Heavy 0DTE volume was once again showcased, with the largest volume strike being 100k 10/28 3900 calls. This is incredible given that the SPX opened at 3810! This 0DTE flow is pure leverage which serves to ramp the market higher.

Additionally, as anticipated, we also saw IV get crushed, particularly ultra-short-dated (read: put-fuel for a rally). This very short dated IV crush was supplemented by the idea that the Fed is going to soften its stance on Wednesday. As shown below that short dated IV is quite low now relative to Wednesdays elevated levels.

SPX Vol term structure

All of which Friday saw the options complex higher slide higher, which is something we generally read as an options market acceptance of higher equity prices.

Of course, the elephant in the room is Wednesdays FOMC, which holds the fate of equities, and which Nomura’s Charlie McElligott warns the irony of the central bank “step-down” meme seen around the globe (RBA, BoC, ECB) in recent weeks – which has explosively rallied “financial assets” (both Risk-Assets and Sovy Bonds) – is that for the Fed, downshifting in say Dec from 75bps to 50bps and beyond actually allows them to extend-out the hikes longer…

…and in-fact, avoid the potentially of slamming breaks too hard, which would then elicit the Rate cuts which the STIRS market continues to hold onto for back half next year.

All of which can be seen in the chart below as despite the equity exuberance, STIRS are shifting notably hawkishly…

So said another way, “stepping-down” is, perversely, the Fed’s way of seeking-out an alternate path to actually avoid Rate CUTS next year from a “hard landing” accident…and instead, keeping Rates “high for longer”….hardly “rage bullish”.

However, equities are holding near this 3905 strike of the monthly Put Spread Collar which trades later today, where the Dealer is short 14k of said 3905 Puts, which meant a lot of $Delta bot on the Friday melt-up to said strike…BUT for today, if the market remains below strike (as we are again currently), the option will bleed from a 52 Delta to 100 Delta – leading to an incremental  ~$2.6B of Delta to sell

But As McElligott notes, as we’ve seen in other short-squeezes and bear-mkt rallies this year, perhaps the largest reason we could keep rallying in Stocks this week is a somewhat counter-intuitve psychological / behavioral catalyst which is paired with exceedingly illiquid markets, meaning investors risk being “trapped in their under-positioning” into year-end, with less Dealer balance-sheet as they begin to protect PNL:

The idea is that as we have seen big “upside reversals” on seemingly “hawkish / bad news” days of late (e.g. the last CPI upside surprise day), is that IF you don’t begin to cover shorts and / or or buy-the-dip and “net up” exposure again into an actual “hawkish” Fed catalyst….then you are almost certainly going to be covering or “netting-up” exposures up another +6% to +10% from here on a (God-forbid) “DOVISH” Fed message

This is what could surprise – and hurt – the most this week, which could see us overshoot into that 4000 + SPX level which goes beyond the current “Valuation” rationalization of 17x’s $230 = 3910

However, the Nomura strategist warns to be careful what you wish for…

Frighteningly, EVERYBODY who is an Equities “bear” has now “built-in” my recent observation regarding the market’s recent reflexive “FCI easing” surge (US Dollar and Real Yields cratering lower, Credit Spreads tighter, Equities Vol and Skew smashed) as their justification for expecting a move LOWER in Stocks this week, following the recent central bank “step-down” trend—where Chair Powell and the Fed are forced to “push-back” on the recent easing in FCI, and instead, slam the door on premature pivot talk, as inflation / labor / wages continues to run hot

This gained further steam over the weekend with WSJ’ Timiraos tweet storming like crazy—and even appearing on “Face the Nation” Sunday—hammering a similar message: that financial conditions have actually EASED further both since last hike…but into stronger inflation, labor and wage data, and all as the US consumer holds excess household savings to continue and “cushion” against higher rates / higher inflation—“For the Fed, a more resilient private sector means that when it comes to rate hikes, the peak or “terminal” policy rate may be higher than expected”

Accordingly, the “right” outcome this week would be Fed / Powell HAMMERING a hawkish message to reverse this recent “impulse easing” in FCI, stocks trade lower and bonds selloff again, as there is no basis for “pivot / step-down” relief until the data softens meaningfully… because a reacceleration in “wealth creation” and “animal spirits” within US markets and economy would be extremely counter-productive to the “demand-side” inflation-killing needs of the FOMC.

It happened in June/July and Powell curb-stomped it…

Will it happened again?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 12:12

Biden Launches A Full-Blown Economic War On China, It Will Backfire

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Biden Launches A Full-Blown Economic War On China, It Will Backfire

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The US thinks it can block microchip technology from China. It won’t and blowbacks are everywhere…

Turning the Screws 

How Companies Are Dealing with US Restrictions on Chip Exports to China

Please consider How Companies Are Dealing with US Restrictions on Chip Exports to China

The U.S. Commerce Department announced a series of new trade restrictions earlier this month that banned the export of some computer processing chips to China.

The restrictions affect not only U.S. businesses selling to China, but also any company whose products contain American chip technology. The U.S. government action has many companies considering how to move forward under the new rules.

Numerous American technology companies doing major business with China are facing possible severe damage to their profits. Other companies that manufacture technology products in China are having to withdraw U.S. employees because the ban also bars “U.S. persons” from supporting technology covered by the ban.

James Lewis is a senior vice president and director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. He told VOA the new restrictions seem to be “reshaping the market.”

“The Koreans, the Taiwanese and some American companies are really nervous about it,” Lewis said. “I mean, everyone’s asking, ‘What can I still sell to China?’ And in some cases, the answer is ‘nothing,'” he added.

In Britain’s Financial Times newspaper, U.S. national editor and columnist Edward Luce wrote that “Joe Biden this month launched a full-blown economic war on China.”

So far, chip companies have reacted carefully to the ban. While recognizing the government’s concerns, they have noted they were not given a chance to discuss the policy with U.S. officials before it was announced.

Call Them the Biden-Trump Tariffs Now

The Wall Street Journal comments Call Them the Biden-Trump Tariffs Now

President Biden has rolled back some of Donald Trump’s destructive tariffs, but not enough, and they’re still doing economic harm. New analyses of Mr. Trump’s Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs show how consumers and manufacturers are still paying for the border taxes that benefit only a few companies.

A study by Harbor Aluminum for the Beer Institute finds that the 10% tariff on imported aluminum cost U.S. beverage manufacturers $1.7 billion from March 2018 through August 2022. About 93% of the $1.7 billion has been pocketed by domestic aluminum producers and smelters in the U.S. and Canada. Only $120 million has gone to the U.S. government.

While Biden relaxed some tariffs on China, the chip export ban is a sharp escalation in an economic war with China. 

According to the Financial Times, China accounts for 33 per cent of sales at Applied Materials, 27 per cent at Intel and 31 per cent at Lam Research.

President Biden unequivocally blocked China’s access to high-end computer chips but how long can that last?

Blowbacks Everywhere

Inside the Secret Prisoner Swap That Splintered the U.S. and China

Detention of a Chinese executive to stand trial in the U.S. provoked a standoff between global rivals and opened an acrimonious new era. 

The US arrest of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of China’s Huawei Technologies Co. was based on an irrelevant 6-year old power-point. She was arrested in Canada in 2018.

That’s quite the story. Bolton did this on his own accord and got Canada tangled up in it too. 

It’s a long but interesting read. Here is a free link: Inside the Secret Prisoner Swap That Splintered the U.S. and China

Inflationary Headwinds

De-globalization and decarbonization are both very inflationary. 

Both parties seem OK with the former. Decarbonization by the US and EU Left greatly adds to the mess. 

No Man’s Land 

Weaponizing currency reserves and diplomats on top of this is madness. But that’s where we are.

For further discussion, please see What Does China Do With a Dollar That’s No Longer Risk Free? Buy Gold?

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 11:45

“This Is False”: Musk Denies NYT Report Over Snap-Layoffs To Avoid Paying Stock Grants

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“This Is False”: Musk Denies NYT Report Over Snap-Layoffs To Avoid Paying Stock Grants

Elon Musk says that a claim by the NY Times that he plans to fire Twitter employees before Nov. 1 to avoid paying stock grants is “false.”

On Oct. 29, the Times – citing “four people with knowledge of the matter” – reported that Musk had planned to start laying people off as soon as Saturday, depriving them of scheduled stock grants.

“Such grants typically represent a significant portion of employees’ pay. By laying off workers before that date, Mr. Musk may avoid paying the grants, though he is supposed to pay the employees cash in place of their stock under the terms of the merger agreement,” wrote the Times.

Breathlessly believing the Times was ProPublica deputy managing editor Eric Umansky, who tweeted “@elonmusk is making sure to fire people at Twitter before part of their year-end compensation *kicks in on Tuesday.*

To which Musk replied: “This is false.

That said, the Times also reported that top executives may not receive golden parachutes.

Mr. Musk also appears unlikely to pay the golden parachutes that the fired top executives of Twitter were set to receive. Under the merger agreement, those executives — including Parag Agrawal, the chief executive — had been set to receive compensation of $20 million to $60 million if they were fired. But Mr. Musk terminated the executives “for cause,” meaning he did it because he alleged he had justification, which may void that agreement, two people with knowledge of the matter said. –NYT

And on Sunday, Musk tweeted what he claims is evidence which was ‘hidden from the court’ – which appears to be a conversation about “fraudulent metrics.”

As the Epoch Times further notes;

Musk officially acquired the social media platform on Thursday following months of legal back-and-forth between himself and Twitter executives over his $44 billion acquisition.

The businessman marked the occasion by sharing a video of himself on Twitter walking into Twitter headquarters while carrying a sink, tweeting, “let that sink in.”

He has also changed his Twitter bio to read “Chief Twit,” with a location tag stating “Twitter HQ.”

According to a Reuters report, Musk also fired Twitter Chief Executive Officer, Parag Agrawal, and Chief Financial Officer Ned Segal, as well as legal affairs and policy chief Vijaya Gadde after sealing the deal, having accused them of misleading him and Twitter investors over the number of automated bots on the platform.

The New York Times, citing anonymous sources, said that the top executives allegedly fired by Musk had been set to receive compensation of $20 million to $60 million if their positions were terminated but that they will no longer receive the payouts because Musk instead terminated them “for cause,” which the publication said meant that he “alleged he had justification, which may void that agreement.”

The Epoch Times has contacted Twitter for comment.

Musk has stressed that he believes Twitter, which has repeatedly come under fire for censoring some minority and politically conservative viewpoints, should be a platform that allows a wide range of beliefs to be debated in a healthy manner.

On Friday, the billionaire businessman revealed plans to lift bans on accounts that were suspended for “minor and dubious reasons” but did not say when exactly the accounts would be reinstated.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 11:25

Almost 8 Out Of 10 Americans Say Things Are “Out Of Control”; New Poll Finds

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Almost 8 Out Of 10 Americans Say Things Are “Out Of Control”; New Poll Finds

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

A new CBS News Battleground Tracker/YouGov poll has found that a whopping 79 percent of Americans believe the country is “out of control” ahead of the mid term elections.

Just 21 percent responded to the say that they feel things are “under control,” and when that 79 percent were asked which party they will vote for a majority of 58 percent said Republican, with only 34 percent saying they will vote Democrat.

The poll also found that 73 percent believe things are “going badly” with 42 percent saying “very badly,” and just 26 percent saying things are “going well,” with 6 percent saying “very well,” (what are they smoking?)

The state of the Economy is favouring Republicans:

The poll also found that a huge swing by independents to the GOP is underway:

More hispanic voters are going Republican too, according to the poll:

Appearing on Fox News, GOP Senator Tom Cotton charged that Democrats are intentionally subjecting America to institutional decline:

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/31/2022 – 11:05