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DOE Unleashes $500M To Break China’s Grip On Critical Materials

DOE Unleashes $500M To Break China’s Grip On Critical Materials

The DOE’s Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation (CMEI) released a Notice of Funding Opportunity for up to $500 million for advancing its strategy to develop secure domestic sources of critical minerals and battery materials. The aim is to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers that have long dominated these markets. This marks the third round of funding under the Battery Materials Processing and Battery Manufacturing & Recycling programs.

Our readers have been tracking these developments for some time. Last summer we published an overview of the emerging domestic critical minerals sector, identifying several publicly traded companies now well-positioned for further government support.

This new round of funding will support projects focused on domestic processing of raw feedstocks, recycling of battery manufacturing scrap and end-of-life batteries, and the manufacturing of battery components and materials. Key targeted minerals include lithium, graphite, nickel, copper, and aluminum, along with other materials used in commercial battery systems. The overarching objective is to build resilient supply chains for electric vehicles, grid storage, defense applications, and broader industrial needs.

Energy Secretary Wright highlighted: “For too long, the United States has relied on hostile foreign actors to supply and process the critical materials that are essential in battery manufacturing and materials processing. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the Department of Energy is playing a leading role in strengthening these domestic industries that will position the U.S. to win the AI race, meet rising energy demand, and achieve energy dominance.”

Assistant Secretary Audrey Robertson provided additional context from recent international engagements, including meetings in Japan on allied energy cooperation.

Our previous write-ups have included details on MP Materials, the operator of the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and downstream magnet processing facilities, which previously secured major Pentagon equity investment and price support.

USA Rare Earth has advanced its Round Top, Texas project with a substantial U.S. government funding package and integrated processing capacity. 

Non-binding letters of intent are due March 27, with full applications due April 24. As we’ve reported in multiple prior articles, the federal government continues to expand its role in the sector. This latest round represents another step in the ongoing effort to onshore critical supply chains.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 21:25

Parents – Not Schools – Must Be In Charge Of Their Children

Parents – Not Schools – Must Be In Charge Of Their Children

Authored by Keri Ingraham via The Epoch Times,

Earlier in March, the U.S. Supreme Court had to step in and reaffirm the basic reality that parents, not schools, must be the primary decision-makers for their children. In the Mirabelli v. Bonta ruling, the Court determined that the California law, which barred schools from telling parents about their child’s claimed gender identity, violated parents’ constitutional rights—both their First Amendment free exercise rights and their Fourteenth Amendment rights to make decisions about their children’s upbringing.

For most of American history, parents were recognized as the primary authority in their children’s lives. Today, that authority is repeatedly under attack, especially in public schools.

Across the country, families are being shut out of what their children learn, denied access to critical health and personal information, and blocked from choosing schools that fit their children’s needs. This is not a minor issue. Rather, it is a fundamental threat to family authority, a child’s well-being, and the future of our society.

In too many districts, controversial lessons are introduced without parental knowledge. Parents who ask to review classroom materials are simply ignored, told the material is unavailable, or directed to file a public records request. Families who speak up at school board meetings are often treated as agitators or troublemakers—or called “domestic terrorists.”

To a growing extent, schools have begun operating as if parental involvement is optional instead of essential. But parents do not lose their rights when their children enter a classroom. Education exists to serve families, not replace them.

The problem extends beyond curriculum, as teachers and administrators are withholding critical medical or personal information from parents about their minor-aged children. Yet parents cannot fulfill their responsibility to care for their children if key information is deliberately withheld.

This conflict is not hypothetical. In recent years, a growing number of school districts have adopted policies that allow, and even encourage, students to socially transition at school—using different names or pronouns—without notifying their parents. In some cases, school staff are directed to keep this information hidden from dads and moms. Policies like these drive a wedge between parents and their own children.

Finally, parents are still denied meaningful authority over where their children are educated. Millions of families remain assigned to schools based solely on ZIP code. If a child struggles academically, faces bullying, or needs a different learning environment, parents are often left with few options. This puts children’s education and well-being at risk.

Thankfully, change is taking place. Across the country, states are expanding school choice programs that allow education funding to follow students rather than remain tied to the system. Private school scholarship programs, education savings accounts, and tax credit scholarships are giving families the freedom to choose the learning path that best meets their children’s unique needs.

Parents are desperate to exit the public education system because it has failed to fulfill its core mission of providing quality learning, has stopped listening to them, and, in many cases, has pushed them out.

Parents, not school bureaucrats, must hold the final authority over their children. Moms and dads raise them, have known them since birth, and will be part of their lives long after the school year ends. No teacher or administrator, no matter how well-intentioned, should ever replace that role.

For most of our nation’s history, that was obvious.

Parents had both the right and the responsibility to direct the upbringing and education of their children, and courts repeatedly affirmed that principle.

Yet today, that authority is under threat. Bureaucratic policies, as witnessed in California, are increasingly working to replace the role of parents in a child’s life.

Excluding parents erodes trust, strips schools of accountability, and harms children. Families are sidelined while systems dictate what kids learn, what personal information they keep private, and even which schools they can attend, leaving children without the guidance of those who know and love them best. Schools should operate with transparency, not secrecy. Parents should be treated as partners, not obstacles, and their decision-making authority must be respected.

Children belong to families, not bureaucracies. Institutions should never forget that. Restoring parental authority is not radical. Rather, it is simply a return to a long-standing American principle: families, not government institutions, are the foundation of society, and parents should be trusted to guide their children’s upbringing and education.

If we fail to protect that principle, we risk raising a generation with less parental guidance, less accountability in schools, and fewer opportunities to succeed. But when parents are respected and empowered to lead in their children’s lives, families grow stronger, and so does the future of our nation.

It’s time to put parents back in their rightful place—as the first, most trusted, and most important decision-makers in their children’s lives. This Supreme Court decision is an important step in the right direction.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 21:00

AAA National Average Gas Price Soars Most On Record

AAA National Average Gas Price Soars Most On Record

AAA (American Automobile Association) reports that the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has surged nearly 25% so far this month, putting it on track for the largest monthly increase on record, even surpassing the May 2009 spike, unless the Middle East conflict is resolved quickly.

This consumer fuel-price shock is coming at about the worst possible moment: it is a midterm election year for MAGA, and as we have noted previously, an emergency SPR release would do little to contain the spike, leaving the administration with few viable options.

Brent crude is trading near $102 a barrel and WTI around $95 on Monday afternoon, levels that suggest the national average price for regular gasoline could soon push even closer to the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon threshold.

Consumers have already noticed, as Google Search trends for “Why are gas prices going up” have surged to levels seen when crude prices spiked during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The good news is that comments from the Trump administration show an urgency to reopen the critical maritime chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning that the US is deliberately “allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz” and is “fine” with some Indian and Chinese ships moving through “for now… to supply the rest of the world.”

He highlighted “more and more of the fuel ships start[ing] to go through” and a possible “natural opening” the Iranians are permitting – a tactical concession to stabilize global supply while full escorts remain “militarily” off the table for now.

Last week, we highlighted JPMorgan’s head of commodity research, Natasha Kaneva, who warned that policy measures will have, at best, a limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential for up to 12 mbd in losses over the next two weeks.

Some of those policy maneuvers included the 32-nation IEA’s emergency release of 400 million barrels that will soon hit crude markets, along with the initial flows from the U.S. SPR release of 86 million barrels, which could begin as soon as this week. As we have noted, this is not a stockpile problem, but a flow problem.

Kaneva’s other five options beyond SPR releases to contain soaring oil prices include export restrictions, lifting the Jones Act (which Trump is set to do), waiving federal fuel taxes (which could occur if gas hits $4 a gallon), relaxing E15 gasoline blending rules, and issuing a Reid Vapor Pressure waiver (read her full note here).

With the national average price of gas inching closer to the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level, the key question is what tools the Trump administration is prepared to use to contain pump prices to mitigate any risk of political fallout. 

The immediate focus at the start of the week is clearly on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but domestically, the policy maneuvering is far narrower, likely centering on an SPR release by mid-week and potentially a temporary waiver on federal fuel taxes.

Soaring pump prices come as spring break begins. Will Trump’s Iran conflict be over before the Memorial Day driving season?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 20:35

Obama’s Presidential Center Seeking 100 Unpaid Volunteers To Staff Lavish Facility

Obama’s Presidential Center Seeking 100 Unpaid Volunteers To Staff Lavish Facility

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Former president Barack Obama’s foundation has announced that it will be launching its lavish $850 million presidential center in Chicago in June and is seeking unpaid volunteers to help staff the facility.

That may seem on brand for a former president who has made volunteerism a central tenet of his civic career since his beginnings as a community organizer in Chicago.

At the same time, the staggering costs and jaw-dropping salaries being paid to Obama’s cronies who will run the presidential center are not as easy to pass off as part of his legacy of civic engagement.

Valerie Jarrett, a longtime advisor who will head up the center, is being paid $740,000 salary according to Breitbart.

In a press release from the Obama Foundation, Jarrett described the intended role of the unpaid volunteers, saying, “As Ambassadors, they will create a welcoming and inclusive experience for visitors while representing the strength, resilience, and leadership of this community. Together, we are building something that inspires service, connection, and action far beyond our walls.”

Foundation officials told Fox News Digital that the volunteers will complement the roughly 300 full- and part-time employees and that the volunteer program represents the foundation’s values both onsite and in the community.

Jarrett is one of several former Obama White House officials collecting six-figure paychecks as foundation executives.

According to Fox News Digital, tax filings show “Total salaries and benefits at the foundation climbed from $18.5 million in 2018 to $43.7 million in 2024 as staffing expanded to 337 employees and annual revenue reached nearly $210 million.”

Unpaid volunteers are commonly employed by presidential libraries, nonprofit cultural institutions, and museums.

In the case of the Obama Presidential Center, the foundation reports that “volunteer ‘Ambassadors’ will greet visitors, provide directional assistance, share information on exhibitions and events, and ensure every guest feels personally welcomed from the moment they arrive.”

The center is scheduled to open on Juneteenth, the holiday commemorating the end of slavery in Texas.

Using unpaid labor to carry out the day-to-day work of running an opulent institution run by a well-connected, wealthy elite?

If that isn’t irony, it’s certainly missing a great opportunity.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 20:10

SEC Preparing Proposal To Eliminate Quarterly Reporting Requirement

SEC Preparing Proposal To Eliminate Quarterly Reporting Requirement

Very soon,10-Qs may be a thing of the past.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal to eliminate the requirement to report earnings quarterly and instead give companies the option to share results twice a year, the WSJ reports citing people familiar with the matter.

In preparation for the proposal – which could be published as soon as April – regulators have been talking to officials at the major exchanges to discuss how they may need to adjust their rules. Once published, the proposal will be subject to the usual public comment period. After that period, which typically lasts at least 30 days, the SEC will vote on it. There are no guarantees it will ultimately happen.

The push for semiannual reporting gained steam late last year. As the WSJ reported last September, the Long-Term Stock Exchange petitioned the SEC to eliminate the quarterly earnings report requirement. Within days, President Trump and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins both said they supported the idea.

Publicly traded US companies have reported results every three months for the past 50-plus years. Trump briefly explored the idea of moving to semiannual earnings reports during his first term, but the effort went nowhere.

Those in favor of less-frequent reporting requirements believe a switch could help boost the shrinking number of public companies in the U.S. Among the reasons companies cite as to why they remain private is the time-consuming and costly clerical work required to list and maintain publicly traded shares.

Any change is likely to face opposition from investors who rely on the transparency of regular disclosures.

While the rule is expected to make quarterly reporting optional, and not eliminate quarterly reports altogether, it is unlikely that many companies will voluntarily subject themselves to intense public scrutiny at a time when AI is making decades-old corporate moats disappear virtually overnight. Alternatively, it could also make capital raising far more challenging for companies that opt out since investors could be anxious to allocate capital in companies that do not publish up to date snapshots of their financial matters. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 18:30

US Cities Face Water Stress Amid Crumbling Infrastructure

US Cities Face Water Stress Amid Crumbling Infrastructure

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times,

Across large swaths of the United States, drought conditions and the explosion of data centers have brought renewed attention to the future of the water supply. But the biggest concern may be something local governments have known about for years: aging pipes and other decaying infrastructure that could threaten supply even when water is abundant.

More U.S. cities have been facing water stress in recent years. Drought conditions affected more than a third of the nation last year, with almost 30 million Americans living in areas with high water stress, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

At the same time, data centers can consume upward of 5 million gallons of water per day. That’s the equivalent usage of a town with a population between 10,000 and 50,000 people. The number varies, but an estimated 4,149 data centers are currently operational in the United States, with another 2,788 announced or under construction.

But while drought and data center-related water consumption continue to make headlines, an estimated 6.75 billion gallons of treated drinking water are slipping through the cracks in America’s pipes every single day.

It’s a problem U.S. officials have seen coming for more than a decade.

A 2014 U.S. Government Accountability report found 40 out of 50 state water managers anticipated supply shortages in their states under “average conditions” within 10 years.

Fast forward to last year, when 75 percent of U.S. city officials and more than half of business executives said they expect water risks to outpace all other infrastructure threats, according to a Schneider Electric study.

“Water is not just essential for life—it’s the backbone of America’s economic strength—yet today the U.S. is facing a major water crisis, driven by dwindling supply and outdated infrastructure,” Sophie Borgne, Water and Environment Segment president at Schneider Electric, stated in a press release.

A general view of the Google Midlothian Data Center in Midlothian, Texas, on Nov. 14, 2025. Data centers can consume more than 5 million gallons of water per day, adding pressure in regions already facing water shortages that threaten residential access, industrial growth, and long-term urban resilience. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Most U.S. water pipes are between 45 and 100 years old, and many contain toxic elements such as lead and copper, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

In its 2025 infrastructure report card, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave U.S. drinking water a C- score and wastewater management a D+ due to the ongoing battle to replace U.S. water pipes.

“The nation’s water infrastructure is aging and underfunded. More than 9 million existing lead service lines pose health concerns,” the engineers stated in the report.

The study authors also noted that “funding shortfalls” remain a problem in state-level funding for the necessary upgrades to drinking water pipes. They also observed that only an estimated 30 percent of these utility companies have fully implemented a water asset management plan, and less than half are even trying to implement one.

In October 2024, the EPA announced its final rule on replacing lead piping nationwide, with compliance required to begin that year. The ultimate goal was to replace all aging and leaking drinking water pipes nationwide within 10 years. The agency stated that the country’s drinking water systems would need $625 billion for pipe replacement, treatment plant upgrades, and additional assets.

“[With] the latest data from 2025, EPA estimates that there are 4 million lead service lines across the country, down from 9 million previously estimated,” an EPA spokesperson told The Epoch Times.

The spokesperson said an additional $3 billion in state funding is available to reduce exposure to lead in drinking water.

“EPA is committed to Making America Healthy Again by ensuring that all Americans can rely on clean and safe drinking water,” the spokesperson said, adding that the agency’s free water technical assistance program is available to “help drinking water systems identify, plan for, and replace lead pipes in the communities they serve.”

Workers use giant pumps to move sewage around a broken section of the Potomac Interceptor in Cabin John, Md., on Feb. 16, 2026. An estimated 6.75 billion gallons of treated drinking water are slipping through the cracks in America’s pipes every single day. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Doing the Math

Presently, water lost to faulty pipe infrastructure is costing U.S. utilities $6.4 billion annually. So why is this decades-in-the-making problem still ongoing? Some say it’s because the math doesn’t work.

“While the $6 billion loss of 2 trillion gallons of treated drinking water—nearly 20 percent of the drinking water consumed in the U.S.—to old pipes and crumbling infrastructure sounds large, it must be put in perspective,” Jeff Stollman told The Epoch Times.

As an economist and technology futurist, Stollman prepares impact forecasts for industries, government, and the environment. He said the cost of replacing leaky water pipes ranges from $1 million to $4 million per mile, depending on pipe size, location, and installation method.

“The United States has over 2.2 million miles of underground drinking water pipes, with a significant portion reaching the end of their 75 to 100 year life. The cost of replacing half of these pipes at the lower range cost of $1 million per mile would therefore require municipalities to come up with $1.1 trillion. And this estimate is certainly low,” he said.

“Losing $6 billion a year, it would take nearly 200 years for the current losses to equal the cost of replacement.”

Compounding this, many older municipalities are “cash-strapped” as it is, he said.

A pipe diverts water into the C&O Canal in Cabin John, Md., on March 5, 2026. Most U.S. water pipes are between 45 and 100 years old, and many contain toxic elements such as lead and copper, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Heather Diehl/Getty Images

Outside of federal assistance, Stollman said, state and municipal officials will likely need to raise utility prices to cover the improvements.

“This doesn’t mean that this [pipe changing] shouldn’t be done. But utilities will likely have to raise the cost of water more than 7 cents [per] gallon,” he said.

The soaring cost of water bills is already a concern for many. Since 2022, water bills have increased across the board.

In the Midwest, bills were higher than the national average, but the Mid-Atlantic region saw the greatest year-over-year increase in 2024 at 9.5 percent, according to a Bank of America analysis.

Bluefield Research observed in 2025 that U.S. water and sewer bills had risen 24 percent over the previous five years.

“The cost of maintaining and upgrading water infrastructure continues to rise, and these costs are being passed down to ratepayers,” Megan Bondar, an analyst at Bluefield Research, said in a press release.

Workers with the East Bay Municipal Utility District install a new water pipe in Oakland, Calif., on April 22, 2021. The Environmental Protection Agency issued a final rule in 2024 requiring water systems nationwide to identify and replace lead pipes within 10 years. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Down The Drain

Neno Duplan, CEO of Locus Technologies, said recent federal infrastructure funding “is helpful but insufficient to fully modernize century-old networks nationwide.”

Duplan has extensive experience with surface and subsurface hydrology. He told The Epoch Times that the full elimination of U.S. pipe leakage is neither “technically feasible nor economically rational.”

He said utilities optimize around what he called an “economic level of leakage,” balancing repair costs with water value.

He believes the most pressing investment need isn’t leaky water pipes, but resilient source protection, advanced treatment, and contamination mitigation.

That said, Duplan said the trillions of gallons seeping from American water pipes come at a high price tag.

“The direct impact of leakage is economic: higher operating costs, rate pressure, and occasional localized service interruptions,” he said.

Water lost from pipes isn’t gone entirely, but generally finds its way back into the hydrologic cycle via soil infiltration, aquifer recharge, or surface flow.

“The real issue is not physical loss of water molecules. The real issue is loss of treated, pressurized, potable water service and the economic and energy waste associated with producing water that never reaches a paying customer,” he said.

Reverse osmosis pressure vessels treat wastewater at the Groundwater Replenishment System, the world’s largest wastewater recycling plant, in Fountain Valley, Calif., on July 20, 2022. In its 2025 infrastructure report card, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave U.S. wastewater management a D+ due to the ongoing battle to replace U.S. water pipes. Mario Tama/Getty Images

While Duplan doesn’t expect the water hemorrhaging from America’s pipes to create scarcity on its own, he said it creates problems with delivery reliability and pressure management.

“Infrastructure failure can prevent treated water from reaching customers even when the raw water supply is adequate,” he said.

California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois account for more than one-third of all infrastructure-related water losses, according to Bluefield Research.

While states including California and Texas have taken steps to standardize reporting and validation requirements for utility companies, many “still lack accurate, validated data—hindering transparency, performance benchmarking, and corrective action,” Bondar said in a press release.

Contamination is also a growing concern, which can increase water stress by reducing available freshwater.

“A far larger systemic threat to U.S. water security is contamination, because contaminated water requires energy-intensive treatment before it can be returned to beneficial use,” Duplan said. “Treatment, remediation, and advanced purification are capital and energy-intensive processes. That is where the true risk and cost lie.”

Duplan believes U.S. water supplies face the cumulative challenges of “aging assets, energy-intensive treatment, contamination risks, and allocation management under climatic variability.”

A car passes a burst water pipe damaged by strong winds and heavy rain from Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, N.C., on Sept. 14, 2018. Replacing aging water pipes can cost between $1 million and $4 million per mile, depending on pipe size, location, and installation method, according to experts. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

In January, the United Nations said the current state of water “crisis” in many countries and cities has become the new normal.

“The patterns observed around the world are not those of a system struggling through a temporary crisis,” the agency wrote. “They indicate that many key renewable water systems have crossed thresholds where full restoration is no longer realistic, even with large investments.”

Cities Take Action

Since 2016, new federal rules and local investment programs have reshaped how cities track and upgrade water infrastructure. Revisions to the EPA’s lead and copper rule finalized in 2021 required utilities to inventory service line materials by October 2024, shifting the focus toward identifying pipe materials—especially lead—rather than documenting pipe age.

Cities have also expanded replacement efforts. In Baltimore, where pipes average roughly 75 to 80 years old, about 15 miles of mains are replaced or rehabilitated each year.

Milwaukee maintains about 2,000 miles of mains dating to 1873 and plans to replace 65,000 lead service lines by 2037.

In Philadelphia, where some pipes date back to 1824, about 20 miles are replaced annually.

Meanwhile, Phoenix reported more than 480,000 waterline services in a 2024 inventory and no lead lines, while San Antonio is shifting toward condition-based pipe replacement across its roughly 9,000-mile network.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 18:05

North Korean Operatives Infiltrating U.S. Companies Through Remote Tech Jobs

North Korean Operatives Infiltrating U.S. Companies Through Remote Tech Jobs

North Korean operatives are quietly working inside U.S. companies through remote technology jobs, funneling millions of dollars back to Pyongyang and potentially gaining access to sensitive corporate systems, according to investigators and U.S. officials, according to NBC News.

The scheme relies on workers posing as American job applicants using stolen identities and fake credentials to secure high-paying remote roles, particularly in software development and artificial intelligence. Authorities warn the tactic allows the regime to bypass international sanctions while embedding operatives inside Western companies.

An investigation by the Virginia-based cybersecurity firm Nisos found that suspected North Korean IT workers apply to thousands of jobs using fabricated résumés and multiple online personas. Once hired, the workers often operate from overseas — frequently from China — while U.S.-based facilitators help maintain the illusion that they are located domestically.

These facilitators run so-called “laptop farms,” where company-issued computers are physically kept in the United States and remotely accessed by workers abroad. Investigators say the workers also coordinate applications, interviews, and references within tightly organized teams to increase their chances of being hired.

NBC News writes that the scheme has expanded rapidly since the rise of remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic, which made it easier for overseas workers to obtain jobs without appearing in person. Authorities say the salaries — sometimes exceeding $300,000 per worker — are largely sent back to the regime of Kim Jong Un, helping fund North Korea’s weapons and ballistic missile programs.

U.S. officials estimate the operation now affects hundreds of companies and generates hundreds of millions of dollars annually for the North Korean government.

Investigators say some operatives hold multiple jobs simultaneously, applying to dozens of roles a day and coordinating through organized networks that track applications and interviews. In some cases, the workers are accused of stealing proprietary data, cryptocurrency, or sensitive technical information while employed. Officials warn that even after the workers are discovered and fired, they may leave behind hidden system access that could later be exploited, raising broader national security concerns.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 17:40

The Greatest Risk For The Global Economy Is Stagflation Driven By Governments, Not Oil

The Greatest Risk For The Global Economy Is Stagflation Driven By Governments, Not Oil

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The current oil price forward curve shows that the current global energy shock may be significant but short-lived. The forward curve presents a steep disinflationary trend to $80 per barrel by the end of 2026. Markets are discounting a short war with limited impact on supply but immediate ripple effects on markets and importing economies.

In the worst case, a new energy shock triggered by war with Iran would bring stagflation pressures across the global economy, especially in the economies that have been unable to strengthen their energy supply chains since 2022, like the European Union, which is still in a low-growth environment subject to significant impact from energy shocks. Even if the conflict is short‑lived, the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf infrastructure has made the oil market go from an oversupply of 4 million barrels per day, according to the IEA, to a tight balance, as shipping routes come under pressure.

The Strait of Hormuz carries almost 25% of seaborne oil exports and a large share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows, which makes it the most sensitive energy route. However, 80% of the traffic through the strait goes to Asia, mostly China. That is why the Chinese government has halted all refined product exports from China, trying to limit the risk of supply constraints.

We must also remember that $100 a barrel today is not equivalent to $100 per barrel in 2008. In current dollar terms, the 2008 oil crisis would only trigger at $190 per barrel. Adjusting for inflation is important.

Non-OPEC supply is also a differential factor from other crises, as it has increased significantly since 2008, contributing to a more stable market despite rising prices. The current energy shock is entirely different from 2008 for the United States.

In 2008, the United States production stood at barely 5 million barrels per day. Today, the US is the largest oil producer in the world at 13.7 million barrels per day.

In 2008, dry natural gas output was around 56 billion cubic feet per day. It is projected to reach 106 billion cubic feet daily in 2026. Natural gas energy independence exists in the US, and with the inclusion of Canada and Mexico, North America’s oil independence is nearly complete.

Even considering all these differences compared with other instances, an energy shock would immediately increase fuel prices at the pump but also raise the cost of electricity, heating, fertilizers, plastics, chemicals, and many manufactured goods that depend on petrochemical inputs.

These secondary price effects may quickly feed into consumer and producer inflation, even if other disinflationary factors mitigate the overall CPI impact.

In energy‑importing economies such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, and parts of Latin America, higher fuel bills will likely hit households that are already suffering from persistent inflationary pressures due to uncontrolled government spending and money printing.

For countries like Pakistan, which relies heavily on imported LNG, and several Southeast Asian nations, the shock could trigger a relevant balance‑of‑payments stress, currency depreciation, and even the risk of rationing as fiscal buffers are exhausted.

The current level of US dollar reserves of emerging economies is elevated, but not enough to entirely offset the impact of an energy crisis on the purchasing power of their currencies.

If governments decide to “combat” the energy crisis by increasing spending and subsidies, which is the same as printing money, the macroeconomic impact would be stagflationary: higher inflation with weaker or no growth.

The biggest risk for inflation will not be the impact of energy prices only, but the response from governments if they decide to spend and print their way out of the war’s impact.

The most significant risk for the global economy would come if central banks decided to hike rates due to energy price spikes. Hiking rates would halt investment, consumption, and job creation and have no impact on prices driven by an external geopolitical factor.

If the war continues for an extended period, it could lead to a revision in global growth forecasts, which were already weak for 2026. The IMF had already estimated a slowdown to around 3% or less, and the Iran‑related shock may mean tighter financial conditions.

A long war could lead to a domino of recessions in energy-importing regions, while resource-rich exporters would see an economic boost that would not counterbalance the impact on the largest economies, primarily importers.

The greatest risk now is, as always, a domino of policy mistakes.

Developed economies’ governments may feel tempted to spend and print, ignoring the lack of fiscal space and the already persistent inflation created by the errors made during Covid-19 and the political response.

Governments might intensify their deficit spending, and central banks might repeat their mistakes from 2021-2024 by raising rates at the most inopportune time.

Stagflation is an unlikely outcome, but if it arrives, it will be entirely created by policy mistakes from governments and central banks.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 17:15

“We Got A War Going On”: Trump Requests Trump-Xi Summit Delay By “A Month Or So”

“We Got A War Going On”: Trump Requests Trump-Xi Summit Delay By “A Month Or So”

Summary:

  • Trump asks for delay of “a month or so” for Trump-Xi Summit

  • China and US end trade talks

  • Bessent notes that any delay would be due to “prosecuting war”

*  *  *

Update (1700ET): President Trump said he had requested China delay a summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for about a month, saying it was important for him to remain in Washington to oversee the Iran war.

“Because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here, I feel,” Trump said Monday during a White House event when asked about potentially rescheduling the high-profile summit.

The meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies is currently set to begin later this month.

“And so we requested that we delay it a month or so, and I’m looking forward to being with him,” Trump added.

“We got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here. So it could be that we delay a little bit, not much.”

As Rabobank pointed out earlier it’s tricky because Trump wants Hormuz open again. Xi wants guarantees that Gulf oil will continue to flow to Chinese refineries, Chinese industrial producers will have markets to sell to, and Chinese consumers will have food to import.

Trump thinks he has the upper hand in this negotiation and so on Sunday night he told media that he could seek to delay the Beijing summit and that he expected China to help open the Strait of Hormuz.

He is playing hard to get, and trying to put all of the pressure on Xi to force a resolution. To paraphrase Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connally: “it’s our war, but it’s your problem.”

So, could the upcoming summit be the moment where we see Beijing issue the directive to its allies in Tehran to end the blockade?

For Xi it may be a choice between that, or suffering the wrath of Kharg on the Chinese industrial economy.

*  *  *

Update (0911ET):  The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post has published an update on the sixth round of U.S.-China trade talks, which concluded moments ago in Paris.

SCMP’s title for the update is rather ominous: “China and the US end trade talks as doubts form over Trump visit.”

The report states that both sides discussed a possible extension of existing tariff and non-tariff measures, as well as bilateral investment.

China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, said the two sides held “deep, frank, and constructive” talks and agreed to “continue to maintain the stability of tariffs.”

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan in Paris that any delay in the Trump-Xi meeting later this month would not be due to Beijing declining to assist the U.S. in reopening the Strait of Hormuz with a naval coalition, but rather because of logistics: “If the meeting, for some reason, is rescheduled, it would be rescheduled because of logistics.”

I don’t think the meeting is in jeopardy, but it’s quite possible the meeting could be delayed,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News moments ago.

Leavitt said, “These are leader-to-leader conversations that are currently taking place,” adding that if the trip is delayed, the White House will provide the new dates very soon.

SCMP quoted the Chinese foreign ministry as saying both sides at the negotiating table were in contact over Trump’s state visit.

*   *   * 

Update (0800ET):  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined CNBC TV to counter narratives from U.S. MSM outlets overnight that claimed President Trump would delay the Xi summit later this month if Beijing did not help form a naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

If the meetings are delayed, it wouldn’t be delayed because the president demanded that China police the Strait of Hormuz,” Bessent told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan in Paris. “If the meeting, for some reason, is rescheduled, it would be rescheduled because of logistics.”

Bessent headlines from the interview:

  • FALSE TO SAY IF CHINA DOESN’T OPEN HORMUZ, TRIP DELAY

  • US-CHINA TRADE MEETINGS IN PARIS’ VERY GOOD’

  • IF TRUMP DELAYS CHINA, WOULD BE DUE TO PROSECUTING WAR

  • MARKETS SHOULD ‘ABSOLUTELY NOT’ REACT TO TRIP DELAY

It’s clear that Iran-US conflict adds yet another layer of tension ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Bessent wrapped up talks in Paris with the Chinese today, with reports earlier stating potential areas of agreement in tariffs, agriculture, energy purchases, fentanyl, and Taiwan.

*   *   * 

Brent crude futures are trading around $103 a barrel early Monday morning amid U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub. Concerns about tanker congestion in the Strait of Hormuz, however, appear to be easing.

A flurry of weekend headlines suggests that the Trump administration is racing to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint and avert a further energy shock in global markets. According to a new Axios report, plans for a multinational naval coalition could be unveiled as soon as this week.

Hormuz Tanker Traffic

In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump said the U.S. and allied countries would send warships to the Hormuz area to reopen commercial shipping lanes. He called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the U.K. to help.

On board Air Force One later that day, he told reporters he “demands” that NATO countries and other nations heavily dependent on Gulf crude oil and other product imports help with the naval operation.

“We are talking to other countries about policing the straits. It will be nice to have other countries policing with us. We will help. We are getting a good response,” Trump said.

In a Sunday interview with the Financial Times, the president warned that he could delay his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing does not participate in the naval coalition.

Trump told FT, “It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there.”

“If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO,” he added.

While Beijing has yet to publicly respond to Trump’s request, the state-run Global Times rejected Trump’s plan to spread the risk “of a war that Washington started and can’t finish.” GT explained on Sunday night why Beijing wouldn’t join the naval coalition.

“Crowding a volatile waterway with warships from multiple nations doesn’t create security. It creates flashpoints. If any single vessel were struck, the consequences could rapidly spiral beyond anyone’s control,” GT said. This is “more a carefully structured transfer of risk.”

Bloomberg noted, “A delay to the summit could suit Beijing. China had previously proposed that Trump arrive at the end of April to allow more time for preparations, according to a person familiar with the matter,” adding, “Such a postponement would allow for more discussion on security and diplomatic issues, including self-ruled Taiwan, which have so far not featured prominently on the planning agenda.”

The Iran-US conflict adds yet another layer of tension ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Both sides are expected to wrap up trade talks in Paris on Monday, with potential areas of agreement in tariffs, agriculture, energy purchases, fentanyl, and Taiwan.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 17:00

Guess What Ireland’s President Said About St. Patrick’s Day…

Guess What Ireland’s President Said About St. Patrick’s Day…

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Irish President Catherine Connolly marked her first St. Patrick’s Day in office with a message that reframed Ireland’s patron saint as a symbol for open borders and ‘global citizenship’, urging the Irish to embrace migrants amid ongoing surges in arrivals that have sparked nationwide tensions.

In a video address, Connolly drew parallels between St. Patrick’s enslavement and modern migration, calling for hospitality toward those displaced by war and persecution—conveniently overlooking how mass influxes of economic migrants have overwhelmed Irish communities and resources.

The full message, delivered against a backdrop of Irish and other flags, emphasized St. Patrick’s story as “a reminder of the resilience and courage of migrants, the invaluable contributions that they have made, and continue to make, to the countries they now call home, sometimes even in the face of great adversity.”

Connolly went on: “Patrick’s story speaks not only to the Ireland of the 5th century, but to the millions still subjected to trafficking, forced labour and displacement today.”

She added, “As we recall the life of Patrick, we invoke his spirit and acknowledge our shared responsibilities as global citizens. We stand in solidarity with those who find themselves in vulnerable and dangerous circumstances.

The president wrapped up by stressing, “Patrick’s story invites us to respond with hospitality and kindness to those suffering the consequences of war and displacement, those fleeing their countries because of persecution or violence.”

This pivot comes as Ireland ramps up immigration reforms in 2026, including higher salary thresholds for work permits, digitalized processes, and faster citizenship paths for those granted international protection—moves that critics say prioritize foreigners over native Irish struggling with housing shortages and cultural erosion.

The government’s Budget 2026 poured funds into modernizing the system, aiming to streamline legal access for more migrants while protests against accommodation centers continue to simmer across the country.

The message quickly drew fire on X, where users slammed it as a betrayal of Irish identity in favor of globalist talking points.

One poster fired back: “The spirit is St Patrick? Wasn’t he the guy who ‘Chased the SNAKES out of Ireland?!?’ Don’t you see the similarity here?”

Another echoed: “St. Patrick chasing the snakes out of Ireland is not a metaphor for being friends and surrendering Ireland to foreign invaders.”

These reactions highlight growing frustration with leaders who seem more eager to virtue-signal on the world stage than protect their own country’s sovereignty and traditions.

Connolly’s address also touched on Ireland’s neutral stance and commitment to peace, claiming the nation is “uniquely placed” to address global challenges due to its history of famine and migration. But such rhetoric rings hollow as domestic unrest over immigration boils over, with recent changes easing pathways for newcomers while native concerns go unheeded.

This address reeks of complete capitulation. St. Patrick’s Day is supposed to honor Irish patriotism, not serve as a platform for diluting national pride under the guise of “hospitality.” If Ireland wants to preserve its heritage, it’s time to chase out the globalist snakes eroding it from within.

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/16/2026 – 15:45