Only 30% Of Renters Who Moved In The Last Two Years Became Homeowners, New Study Shows
A new study has revealed why Americans are moving – and where they’re moving to. The results seem to show a housing market that remains somewhat healthy – and certainly isn’t indicative of an economy in deep depression.
For the study, Rocket Mortgage “analyzed the latest data from the 2021 American Housing Survey (AHS) to explore Americans’ moving motivations and processes” and a recent mover was defined as “anyone who moved into their home within 2 years of the survey time, as categorized by the U.S. Census Bureau.”
They found that 36% of people who had moved wanted to stay in the same city, but just relocate to a new neighborhood. 32% of respondents said they wanted to move to a different city altogether.
30% of those who moved became homeowners, the study showed.
The analysis revealed that 26% of renters who transitioned to homeownership reported a decrease in their housing expenses, highlighting an additional advantage of relocating.
For an individual who transitions from renting an apartment at a monthly cost of $1,900 to owning a home with a monthly mortgage payment of $1,400, the financial benefits are significant, with potential savings of $500 monthly. This equates to an annual saving of $6,000. However, it’s important to consider that owning a home incurs additional costs not typically associated with renting, such as closing costs, insurance, and expenses related to home maintenance and landscaping, they wrote.
Then, another big question: why are people moving? The study showed that “39% of people who moved did so to upgrade to a larger or better-quality home, while 35% of movers wanted to be in a more desirable neighborhood.”
These aren’t exactly trends suggesting that consumers are in dire straits just yet. Only 18% of movers moved to reduce housing costs.
The study also looked at how people were finding new places to live. Upon deciding to relocate, individuals often proceed to explore numerous housing options. There are several methods potential homebuyers use to discover homes for sale, such as:
Searching through real estate websites
Collaborating with a real estate agent
Touring various neighborhoods in person
Receiving recommendations from colleagues, friends, and family
“According to the AHS, 51% of homeowners found their home by talking with a real estate agent, while 42% found their home by browsing homes online. With real estate agents acting as a guiding light for current homeowners, these numbers support the idea that an agent’s expertise is a necessity when house shopping begins,” the study says.
Click through to view the full Rocket Mortgage study.
Saint Louis University should hand over $74 billion in reparations to the descendants of slaves who reportedly built the Jesuit Catholic school, an advocacy group announced recently.
The Descendants of the St. Louis University Enslaved group laid out their demands during a press conference last week. The $74 billion number came from economist Julianne Malveaux who apparently believes the slaves never slept.
“An estimated $365 million in unpaid labor was announced, and with added interest over time, amounts to $70 billion, according to Malveaux,” as reported by Spectrum News.
“The number was based on labor done 24 hours per day, 365 days per year for 70 enslaved people from 1823-1865, she said.”
“We’re not asking for a handout. We’re asking for their debt to be paid,” one descendant said.
The group is represented by Areva Martin (pictured below), a “civil rights attorney” and CNN commentator.
While the university usually caves to demands from racial activists, they weren’t as promising that they’d hand over $74 billion.
“SLU’s participation in the institution of slavery was a grave sin. We acknowledge that progress on our efforts to reconcile with this shameful history has been slow, and we regret the hurt and frustration this has caused,” the university told the media.
“Continuing this work is a priority for SLU and the Society of Jesus,” the university stated. “As we move forward, we hope to re-establish and build deeper relationships with all descendant families, to explore together how best to honor the memory of those who were enslaved by the Jesuits.”
Georgetown University, which is also run by the Jesuits, created a $1 billion fund to compensate for its past involvement in slavery.
However, there are no direct payments and descendants have questioned where the money is going.
“NOBODY( Georgetown /SOJ/ The Descendant Truth and Reconciliation) TALKS TO US,” one descendant toldThe College Fix in 2022.
Georgetown first announced the plan to much fanfare, including a New York Timeswrite-up. The D.C. university planned to raise $1 billion, according to an April 2021 announcement, with a short-term goal of $100 million.
In May 2023, the university announced the first five recipients of grants from a $400,000 per year pool.
The five projects, located in Maryland and Louisiana, have a variety of goals and communities they’ll reach, including engaging young adults in rebuilding blighted homes in New Orleans; providing free legal services to families of loved ones with severe mental illnesses; uniting and connecting members of the Descendant community; launching a high school tutoring program that’s co-organized by a Descendant and Georgetown community members; and providing educational programming for children.
Should SLU pay reparations to the slave descendants?
Probably not.
It is not clear how they have suffered direct harm from their ancestors being enslaved. It was morally wrong for anyone to be enslaved, but what is there to be repaired?
There is a case to be made for using some money to honor the past slaves.
For example, if they did not have a proper burial due to being slaves or living in poverty, the university might consider setting up a quality cemetery near or on campus to bury the remains.
That could uphold the horrific truth of slavery – while also moving toward reconciliation.
NY Judge Hits Trump With $364 Million Penalty For Alleged Fraud
New York Judge Arthur Engoron has ordered former President Donald Trump to pay $364 million for allegedly defrauding banks in order to acquire loans and other benefits – loans which the banks themselves testified they were satisfied with after doing their own due diligence.
Trump is also barred “from serving as an officer or director of any New York corporation or other legal entity in New York for a period of three years,” while his sons have been barred from serving as New York executives for two years.
New York Attorney General Letitia James had sought $370 million from Trump, his company, and its top executives for what she claimed was “repeated and persistent fraud” – which included allegations of falsifying records and financial statements to the tune of as much as $2.2 billion.
House Refuses To Pass Another Shutdown Stopgap As Centrists Craft Pared-Down Ukraine Package
The #3 Republican in the House on Thursday said that the chamber will not pass another temporary spending bill which would avert a partial government shutdown when the next deadline expires on March 1. A second tranche of funding for US agencies runs out on March 8.
“You are not going to get another continuing resolution out of our conference,” said Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Emmer’s comments came as the House left Washington for a two-week recess until Feb. 28, just days before the first deadline.
That said, Emmer did seem hopeful that a shutdown could be averted with several upcoming spending bills just ahead of the deadline.
“When we come back the key is what are the packages that are put on the floor,” he said. “We should be there before the first deadline of March 1.”
Those comments echo those of Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House spending panel, earlier Thursday. She also said talks were making progress. But DeLauro added that conservative demands for policy changes to be attached to the spending bills continue to be a problem. Conservatives have demanded many of these so-called riders including banning abortion drugs and making changes to immigration. –Bloomberg
According to Emmer, the White House is to blame for refusing to open new border security talks with Speaker Mike Johnson in an effort to unlock billions in Ukraine aid, and that the bipartisan Senate border deal passed last week was a “non-starter” for Republicans.
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‘Centrists’ Take Another Bite at the Apple
After Speaker Johnson rejected a Senate-passed $95 billion national security package, a group of ‘centrist’ House lawmakers on Friday unveiled a pared down ‘mini-me’ version of the bill – as opposed to trying to pass a ‘clean’ border security bill on its own, and then protect the borders of other nations.
“This is a really good piece of legislation. It’s pared-down. It’s airtight. There’s really not a whole lot of area that anyone can criticize on this,” said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) in a statement to reporters before releasing the text of the proposal. “And it’s bipartisan. It’s the only bipartisan solution in the House.”
The $66.3 billion bipartisan package, titled the “Defending Borders, Defending Democracies Act,” has six initial co-sponsors, equally split between Democrats and Republicans. In addition to Fitzpatrick, the Republican backers are Reps. Don Bacon of Nebraska and Mike Lawler of New York. The Democrats are Reps. Jared Golden of Maine, Ed Case of Hawaii and Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez of Washington.
The release of the bill comes as the House leaves for a nearly two-week recess. Fitzpatrickis a co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus, a bipartisan group of centrist lawmakers, but he said the legislation wasn’t a Problem Solvers product –NBC News
Out of the $66 billion, $47.7 would go to Ukraine, $10.4 would go to Israel, $4.9 billion would go to ‘shore of the defense of allies in the Indo-Pacific,” and $2.4 billion would go back to US Central Command operations, including the conflict in the Red Sea.
Oh, and it ‘borrows language’ from the House GOP tough border bill, H.R. 2.
So no actual money for the US border – but ‘language’ that could strengthen it, if followed.
That includes bringing back the “Remain in Mexico” policy for one year, requiring some migrants, including asylum-seekers, to wait in Mexico while their claims are adjudicated. President Joe Biden ended the policy, which human rights groups said led migrants to face kidnappings and violence, when he took office, and the Supreme Court upheld the move.
“That’s something we’ll have to work out,” Bacon said. “I’m not on the foreign — I’m not an ambassador, so I have no idea how they’re going to respond. Our guys want something that makes a difference on the border.”
Fitzpatrick said it’ll be the Biden administration’s job to find a way to make Mexico comply.
And there you have it – they don’t even know how the border provisions would pan out.
A woman who has volunteered at a charity organisation for 60 years of her life was told she is no longer welcome after she became confused when asked to reveal what pronouns she goes by.
90-year-old Fran Itkoff was dismissed by the National Multiple Sclerosis Society in California following an email exchange in which she was asked by a worker to use her pronouns when signing off.
“I had seen it on a couple of letters that had come in after the person’s name. But I didn’t know what it meant,” Mrs Itkoff told Libs of Tiktok’s Chaya Raichik.
“So when I finally talked to her, I asked what it meant… and she said that meant they were all-inclusive, which didn’t make sense to me,” the elderly woman added.
“Because it sounds like you are labelling for females, not males, if you are just putting in she/her,” Mrs Itkoff further noted.
She then received an email a few days later informing her that she was no longer welcome because of “a failure to to abide by Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion guidelines.”
“We appreciate your dedication and contribution as a Self-Help Group Leader with our organization. As we discussed earlier during a phone conversation, after a thorough review of our guidelines and standards, it has come to our attention that there has been a failure to abide by Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion guidelines during your time as a volunteer,” the email stated.
It concluded, “Unfortunately, based on the situation, we have made the difficult decision to have you step down from your volunteer position, effective immediately.”
“I was completely shocked when I read that. I couldn’t believe that. I had to read it a couple of times to see if I’m getting what she said,” Itkoff said.
Not only has Itkoff given six decades of her time to the non-profit group, but in addition her late husband had MS and ran the Long Beach Lakewood MS support group, which she took over 20 years ago in his honour.
To turf her out over something so meaningless, essentially barring her from being able to do good, and punish her for a lifetime of kindness and dedication is truly sickening and shameful.
Her daughter, Elle Hamilton, urged that the MS Society appears to have “lost their focus on finding a cure for MS and helping the patients.”
“It’s sad that they are discriminating against her because MS doesn’t discriminate. It can happen to anybody to get the disease, and yet they are discriminating against her just because she asked a question to explain what the pronouns were, ” Hamilton added.
Incredibly, following the interview, the MS Society doubled down by sending an email to other volunteers in which the executive vice president of the group’s general counsel suggested that the 90-year-old was let go because others shouldn’t have to feel “unsafe” at work.
BREAKING: @mssociety is doubling down on their decision to force a 90-year-old volunteer to step down for breaking their “inclusion policies” after she asked what pronouns are.
The group then tripled down on Itkoff’s firing, noting “We believe that our staff acted with the best of intentions and did their best to navigate a challenging issue.”
BREAKING: National MS Society just put out a statement TRIPLING down on their decision to force a 90-year-old volunteer to step down for breaking their “inclusion policy” after she asked what pronouns are.
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Harvard Slapped With Congressional Subpoena Over “Failure To Satisfy” Antisemitism Probe
On Friday morning, the House Education and the Workforce Committee revealed on social media platform X that it is serving subpoenas to Harvard Corporation Senior Fellow Penny Pritzker, Interim President Dr. Alan Garber, and Harvard Management Company’s Chief Executive Officer N.P. Narvekar “for failing to produce priority documents related to the Committee’s antisemitism investigation.”
Today, @EdWorkforceCmte is subpoenaing Harvard for failing to produce priority documents related to the Committee’s antisemitism investigation.
This is the first time in the Committee’s history that a university has been subpoenaed.
— House Committee on Education & the Workforce (@EdWorkforceCmte) February 16, 2024
Committee Chair Virginia Foxx, a Republican from North Carolina, wrote in a statement:
“I am extremely disappointed in the path that Harvard has chosen to take in the Committee’s investigation. Over the course of this investigation, Harvard has touted its willingness to work with the Committee, citing the thousands of pages of documents it has produced. But, of the 2,516 pages of documents Harvard has produced in response to the Committee’s antisemitism inquiry to date, at least 1,032—over 40 percent—were already publicly available. Quality—not quantity—is the Committee’s concern.”
Foxx continued:
“Last week, I made it very clear to Harvard that the documents it had produced up to that point were severely insufficient. I warned that a subpoena would be warranted if the university continued to miss the mark, giving it ample opportunity to correct course before compulsory measures were taken. Unfortunately, Harvard did not heed the Committee’s warning and once again failed to satisfy the Committee’s requests. In its most recent response, Harvard failed to make substantial productions on two of four priority requests and its productions on the remaining two priority requests contain notable deficiencies, including apparent omissions and questionable redactions.
“Harvard’s continued failure to satisfy the Committee’s requests is unacceptable. I will not tolerate delay and defiance of our investigation while Harvard’s Jewish students continue to endure the firestorm of antisemitism that has engulfed its campus. If Harvard is truly committed to combating antisemitism, it has had every opportunity to demonstrate its commitment with actions, not words.
“It is my hope that these subpoenas serve as a wakeup call to Harvard that Congress will not tolerate antisemitic hate in its classrooms or on campus.”
The subpoenas require Harvard officials to disclose additional internal reports, communications, and documents regarding the measures they took to protect Jewish students on campus. This followed a surge in antisemitism campus-wide triggered by Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7.
When you imagine our collective future, what do you see? Today, most people do not envision a positive future for humanity. Our movies, our television shows, our video games and our talk shows are filled with apocalyptic themes, and there is constant speculation about what is ahead of us on social media. Global events have really started to go haywire in recent months, and faith in our leaders has never been lower. A lot of people are realizing that when things really start hitting the fan nobody is going to come riding along to rescue them. So sales of emergency food and supplies have soared to record levels, and millions of us are planning for life in a world that has gone completely and utterly mad.
Even some of the most prominent voices in our society are openly talking about such things. For example, Joe Rogan has suggested that right now would be a really good time for Jesus to come back…
“Like if he came back now, it would be great,” Rogan said.
“Jesus, if you’re thinking about coming back, now’s a good time. Now’s a good time.”
Have you ever heard Joe Rogan talk like this?
I haven’t.
In another recent broadcast, Joe Rogan admitted that he believes that “something big is coming” and when he thinks about that it scares him.
Needless to say, he is far from alone.
There are millions of others out there that are feeling the exact same way.
Podcaster Christina Randall claims that Zuckerberg’s bunker is just the latest of around 15 doomsday shelters being built by billionaires around the globe.
“It is definitely very interesting that they’re choosing to build something that sounds like it could be fully self-sustaining, especially if something catastrophic happened to the world and it was no longer habitable,” she said.
“Why not just build a regular old mansion or some kind of commercial facility that could generate Zuckerberg even more money?”
She stressed: “This building is definitely not cheap, it is estimated to cost over $270 million and it looks like this is going to be the largest private personal construction project in human history. We’re talking about over a quarter of a billion dollars.”
The video from Christina Randall that was referenced in that article has already been watched more than 420,000 times…
If everything is going to be just fine, why are so many billionaires building massive survivalist compounds?
Can anyone out there answer that question?
A very large portion of the general population is deeply concerned about what is coming as well.
Billions of dollars is being spent on emergency food and supplies, and I fully expect that 2024 will shatter all previous records.
Americans need to consider the vulnerablity of the U.S. food supply and make plans accordingly, Nelson argues.
“I just think a lot of people don’t know where food comes from. They don’t understand the distribution system. If they understood how that works, that there’s about two weeks worth of food in any distribution system around the United States, once those systems start to break down, the availability of food is going to drop to near zero. And so what people think they have in their cabinets that will help them survive is very different than actually sitting down and doing an analysis of caloric intake for your family, what they need for not just survivability, but maybe even thriveability,” he said.
What he said is so true.
Once our distribution systems break down, the stores will empty out very rapidly.
When that day arrives, you will be so glad that you took action ahead of time.
The same thing could be said for those that have already chosen to relocate.
Over the past few years, many Americans have actually moved to a different part of the country in anticipation of the very challenging times that are ahead of us.
In a recent article, Milan Adams laid out some of the things that you might want to consider if you are thinking about making such a move. Here are some of the human factors that she considers to be important when evaluating a new location…
Low population density (40 people per sq. mile or less)
Distance to major/minor cities (50+ miles away)
Distance to military bases (50+ miles away)
Distance to nuclear power plants (100+ miles away)
Distance to interstate highways
Low poverty rate
Low violent crime rate
And here are some of the natural factors that she considers to be important when evaluating a new location…
Easy access to fresh water
Abundance of wild game
Low natural disaster risk
Dense forest cover
Adequate soil textures
Adequate rainfall
Low drought risk
I think that all of that is really good advice.
When things start getting really crazy, you don’t want to find yourself trapped in a heavily populated area.
As I discussed earlier this week, social order is already breaking down all over the nation.
That means that there are 90,000 crimes in the Big Apple every single day.
Our streets are literally teeming with predators, and many of them show absolutely no remorse for the crimes that they commit.
When I was young, I thought that living in a big city was the thing to do.
But now that I am much older, I am so glad that I do not live in one of our core urban areas, because they have become extremely dangerous.
Over the weekend, a wild mob of young people in San Francisco viciously vandalized a Waymo autonomous vehicle and set it on fire…
A Waymo autonomous vehicle was set on fire Saturday night after it was vandalized by a group of people in Chinatown, San Francisco firefighters said.
The vehicle was traveling on Jackson Street, between Stockton and Grant, about 9:25 p.m. when it was surrounded by about 10 to 15 people, Lt. Mariano Elias with San Francisco fire said.
Several social media videos showed a group of people vandalizing the self-driving car. While another video showed the Waymo vehicle going up in flames.
BREAKING: An autonomous Waymo vehicle is intentionally set on fire in Chinatown, according to SF Fire. Firefighters said they got reports around 10 people were involved.
Waymo said “a crowd surrounded and vandalized the vehicle, breaking the window and throwing a firework … pic.twitter.com/6QN2jTppRu
They couldn’t care less about property rights. They just saw something that they could destroy, and so they did it.
If this is how they are behaving now, what will they be like when there is no food in their stomachs and they haven’t eaten for two weeks?
The elite definitely want to avoid such confrontations, and so that is why they plan to bug out and go to the survivalist compounds that they have been constructing for themselves.
We really are on the verge of an extremely apocalyptic future, and we will soon see things happen that many people never even imagined would be possible.
Millions upon millions of people have a gut feeling that really bad stuff is on the horizon, and it won’t be too long before it becomes clear why so many of us have been preparing for the worst.
A British retail store is facing a massive boycott after it was revealed that it had produced an in house magazine completely devoted to gender identity, replete with tips on how to use chest binders on children, to all of its 70,000 employees.
The Daily Mail reports that John Lewis has been accused of ‘contemptuous dismissal of staff’ for overseeing the production of the 32-page magazine, titled Identity, to mark ‘LGBTQ+ history month’.
The material also contains advice provided by groups Stonewall and Mermaids, two groups in favour of ‘gender affirming’ surgery for children.
In one section of the magazine, parents are warned that their support on such matters “can determine their child’s mental wellbeing,” quoting statistics from Stonewall claiming that the number of trans children attempting suicide is “double the national average”.
The magazine’s introduction suggests that questions over gender ideology amount to “playing pointless politics with people’s lives.”
Another section is titled “Raising Trans and Non-Binary Children,” and quotes a trans staff members as saying “If you love your child enough. you’re not going to care about the judgment that you may face just because they’re happy.”
The section further quotes a parent who claims social media influencers “helped” her by sharing “tips on how to safely use clothing and equipment to achieve a person’s desired gender identity, for example, chest binders”.
The parent is further quoted as saying “a binder is always safer than the alternatives,” despite that fact that a Johns Hopkins study found that 97 per cent of adults who use breast binders experience serious health impacts including pain, rib fractures, changes to the spine, headaches, respiratory and skin infections and muscle wasting.
Stephanie Davies-Arai, founder of Transgender Trend commnted “It is totally wrong, irresponsible and indefensible that John Lewis would put this advice out there to employees, a lot of whom are parents.”
She added, “They do not have any expertise on the subject – they are not clinicians, therapists or medical professionals and it is not their place to advise parents, particularly when the advice they are giving is so dangerous. The medical scandal around the gender transition of children is so well documented that they cannot claim ignorance.”
Why is John Lewis promoting transitioning children?
“They do not have any expertise on the subject – they are not clinicians.. The medical scandal around the gender transition of children is so well documented that they cannot claim ignorance.”https://t.co/TQ2bbH02iS
Helen Joyce of Sex Matters, commented “We’ve known for some time that many big retailers have embraced trans ideology, but this newsletter really demonstrates how far brands are willing to go to placate the vocal minority of activists on their staff.”
She added, “Packed with hyperbole, scaremongering and ideologically driven content, it’s a complete departure from the culture and values people associate with the John Lewis brand. It’s a contemptuous dismissal of staff members who – like most people in this country – believe that sex is binary and more important than identity, and value sex-based rights.”
John Lewis previously announced that customers are allowed to use “whichever fitting room makes them feel most comfortable,” rather than having changing spaces separated for male and female.
Claire Loneragan of The Women’s Rights Network commented “Ordinary people know this belief that everyone has a ‘gender identity’ is very much a fringe belief, but it is being used by employers to justify the removal of single sex facilities and opportunities for women.”
Sounds like workers at @JohnLewisRetail here need a SEEN network asap.@Claire Loneragan, from Women’s Rights Network, said of their ideological magazine
‘Ordinary people know this belief that everyone has a ‘gender identity’ is very much a fringe belief, but it is being used… pic.twitter.com/zoxqQn9Ani
The magazine was made public by James Esses, co-ordinator of the Declaration for Biological Reality, who was sent a copy by a concerned John Lewis staff member.
I got hold of @JohnLewisRetail’s new internal staff magazine, ‘Identity’.
It shocked me.
-Recommending breast binders for kids
-Peer pressuring staff to wear pronoun badges
-A wordsearch containing words like ‘transitioning’ and ‘cisgender’.
He added, “It is particularly concerning that it suggests to potentially vulnerable parents in a difficult situation that the answer to their daughter’s distress with their bodies would be to get them a breast binder, that is the most alarming thing of all.”
Esses also notes that John Lewis’ gender identity policy for staff is directly pulled from Stonewall, and that they are forced to use ‘preferred’ pronouns and wear badges identifying them.
I’ve been contacted by a mother whose son started working in @JohnLewisRetail. Within a couple of days, he was asked by the member of staff he was shadowing where his pronoun badge was. When he questioned whether it was mandatory, the response was “no but it’s transphobic not to”
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Netanyahu Defiant After Biden Phone Call, Rejects Push For Palestinian State
Following a Thursday phone call with US President Joe Biden, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is again pushing back against the intensifying international pressure ahead of Israel’s planned ground assault on Rafah, which contains over a million refugees with nowhere to go.
“Israel will continue to oppose the unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state,” Netanyahu wrote on X, in defiance of a proposed ceasefire plan that external powers including the US are still trying to salvage. He has also called it essentially a “reward to terrorists”.
“My positions can be summarized in the following two sentences,” said Netanyahu in the aftermath of the call. “Israel categorically rejects international dictates regarding a permanent settlement with the Palestinians. Such an arrangement will be reached only through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions.”
As for the White House side, Biden said he stressed to Netanyahu there must be a legitimate plan in place for the safe evacuation of civilians before an assault on Rafah to root out Hamas proceeds. According to the readout:
“The president reaffirmed his commitment to working tirelessly to support the release of all hostages as soon as possible, recognizing their appalling situation after 132 days in Hamas captivity,” the readout said. “The president and the prime minister also discussed the situation in Gaza, and the urgency of ensuring that humanitarian assistance is able to get to Palestinian civilians in desperate need.”
On Rafah, the statement said Biden “reiterated his view that a military operation should not proceed without a credible and executable plan for ensuring the safety of and support for the civilians in Rafah.”
But the reality is that Washington is going to do nothing when the tanks and infantry start moving on Rafah and its largely refugee population of some 1.5 million. So far the White House has sanctioned a handful of settlers as a weak attempt to appease Progressives who are outraged at Biden’s Israel policy.
As we detailed earlier, Egypt is bracing for a flood of displaced to pour into its borders. The crisis is soon to get a lot worse, also ratcheting the pressure on Arab governments to react.
Former MI6 spy and Middle East analyst Alastair Crooke lays out what is happening regarding Biden’s failed policies and current inability to reign in Israel:
Recall how Tom Friedman set out how the “Biden Doctrine” was supposed to fit together as a interlinked whole: First, through taking a “strong and resolute stand on Iran” the US would signal to “our Arab and Muslim allies, that it needs to take on Iran in a more aggressive manner … that we can no longer allow Iran to try to drive us out of the region; Israel into extinction and our Arab allies into intimidation by acting through proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq — while Tehran blithely sits back and pays no price.”
The second strand was the Saudi dangle that would inevitably pave the path into the (third) element which was the “building of a credible legitimate Palestinian Authority as … a good neighbor to Israel ….” This “bold US commitment to a Palestinian state would give us [Team Biden] legitimacy to act against Iran,” Friedman foresaw.
Let us be plain: this trifecta of policies, rather than gel into a single doctrine, are falling like dominoes. Their collapse owes to one thing: The original decision to back Israel’s use of overwhelming violence across Gaza’s civil society – ostensibly to defeat Hamas. It has turned the region and much of the World against the US and Europe.
How did this happen? Because nothing changed by way of US policies. It was the same old western bromides from decades ago: financial threats, bombing and violence. And the insistence on one mandatory “stand with Israel” narrative (with no discussion).
The rest of the world has grown tired of it; even defiant towards it.
Indeed these collapsing dominoes will come into fuller view as the Rafah offensive proceeds and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians begin flooding into Egypt. Meanwhile Egyptians themselves are getting increasingly angry at their US-propped up government, and the Camp David accords which keep the peace with Israel and the brutal status quo in the Gaza Strip.
EU Markets Not Immune From New World Disorder Of ‘No Article V’ Trump Office
By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
This week shocked European leaders from Helsinki to Brussels and back via Berlin to Warsaw without skipping any of the other European NATO member capitals in Europe. What happened? During one of Trump’s campaign rallies Trump said that he would sort of encourage Russia to do whatever it wanted with NATO members that have not been meeting their defense spending fair share of 2% of GDP.
While this remark directly undermines NATO’s most crucial article V – which calls for military involvement of all NATO member countries if one of its members were to be attacked – it could hardly be real news for most of those ‘shocked’ European ‘leaders’.
Indeed it was nobody else but Trump who already told von der Leyen in 2020 that: “You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you,” .
While it is no secret that Von der Leyen already failed miserably during her term as a minister of defence for Germany, she apparently failed again in taking Trump’s words seriously back in 2020. While Trump’s recent NATO comments are everything but helping to advance America’s position on the global stage, Von der Leyen and many of her colleagues in Brussels and other mainly Western European leaders, failed to do what is necessary to prepare for a potential return of Trump or the return of his ideas embodied by someone else. They may now be coming around of that view, seeing Von der Leyen’s interview in the FT today, but precious time has been wasted.
Now imagine that Trump would win and would return to pro-fossil fuel policies that would make the US largely if not totally independent from any fossil fuels from abroad. He might pursue an isolationist approach here too, leaving the EU to scramble for much needed cheap energy from the Middle East.
Could the EU protect crucial sea lanes on its own?
That is doubtful, to say the least.
So what European leader could step up and take the lead in the much needed process to get Europe ready to engage effectively in a mass military build-up campaign fast should that turn out to be necessary?
That certainly does not seem to be Rutte as he has been responsible for the most dramatic cuts of the Dutch defence budget during his record long rein in the Netherlands.. Still he is the top favourite in securing the role of head of NATO. However, it must also be said that he has been on the forefront in supporting Ukraine and was one of the first Western leaders to provide Ukraine with fighter jets. Still it sometimes seems that for people who govern, failing to do your job properly is no barrier to continue to govern. And to be very clear, the very same goes for Trump. All of this seems to be indicating that international anarchy and global chaos resulting from it might be here to stay for the foreseeable future and markets will not be immune to this new world disorder.
One example of how for instance increasing rivalry between the West and China continues to plague companies that do business in China, was yesterday’s news regarding Germany’s automobile giant Volkswagen. Yesterday saw German luxury cars being impounded by the US after it became known that subcomponents in those cars were coming from the Xinjiang autonomous region and made by forced labour.
Or what to think of the fact that the large asset manager JP Morgan hires former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley to advise the bank’s board of directors, senior leaders and clients on dangers around the world.
Does anybody need more proof that markets will not be immune to a new world in disorder?
Turning back to Europe, it remains to be seen what the impact will be of Europe seriously stepping up its efforts to rebuilt a defence industry but it is likely to be an increase of taxes and a decrease of the welfare system. On a ‘positive’ note: The European Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement on new budget rules last Saturday that would give member states more budgetary leeway if they carry out reforms and invest in the green and digital transition, strengthening social resilience and, where necessary, defence.
One thing is sure, peace dividend will be something of the past and again certainly European financial markets will not be immune for a new world disorder.
Looking at what is happening today we saw UK retail sales coming in much higher than expected. Overall retail sales gained 0.7% y/y where a decline of -1.6% was expected. On a monthly base the rise was 3.4% vs an expected rise of 1.5%. However looking at those volumes the data shows the picture that measured in volumes, retail sales are still below pre pandemic levels. EUR/GBP therefore moves slightly up today mainly indicating a weaker pound with the current EUR/GBP exchange rate approaching the level of 0.86.
Next to that were the final inflation figures from France, which confirmed earlier estimates that prices declined 0.2% m/m but on a yearly base (3.4%) still exceed the ECB’s target level of approximately 2%. It must however be said that the data includes January discounts which are reflected by a sharp decline of prices for shoes and clothing (-9.2% m/m) although prices for transport also dropped with 4.8% m/m.
