Authored by John Murawski via RealClear Wire,

In 1986, an upstart public health researcher named Arline Geronimus challenged the conventional wisdom that condemned the alarming rise of inner-city teen pregnancies. While activist minister Jesse Jackson and health care leaders were decrying the crisis of “babies having babies” as a ghetto pathology, Geronimus contended that teenage pregnancy was a rational response to urban poverty where low-income black people have fewer healthy years before the onset of heart problems, diabetes, and other chronic conditions.

Although Geronimus’ claims gained little traction at the time, the concept she pioneered – “weathering” – eventually became a foundation for the social justice ideology that is now upending medicine and social policy. She has stated in interviews and in her writings that the term “weathering” was intended to evoke the idea of erosion and resilience.

A white professor at the University of Michigan whom The New York Times hailed last year as an “icon,” Geronimus has combined race theory with data and statistics to argue that the chronic stress of living in an oppressive, white-majority society causes damage at the cellular level and leads to obesity and other health conditions, resulting in shorter life expectancies for African Americans. In more than 130 published studies, she has expanded the weathering hypothesis from an explanation of poverty harming one’s health into a dystopian sociological worldview that identifies middle-class assimilation and professional striving within the “American Creed” of hard work as the silent killers of people of color.

“Living life according to the dominant social norms of personal responsibility and virtue is not universally health promoting,” Geronimus wrote in a Harvard Public Health essay last year. “On the contrary: if you’re Black, working hard and playing by the rules can be part of what kills you.”

The subject of hundreds of peer-reviewed studies and thousands of citations, the weathering hypothesis is now widely taught in public health schools and accepted as perhaps the most plausible scientific explanation of how American society grinds down black and brown bodies. And the weathering paradox – that “relatively young people can be biologically old” – is now influencing policy decisions at all levels of governance.

Geronimus’ hypothesis was the foundation of many of the policy decisions of the White House COVID-19 health equity task force. In New Hampshire, the governor’s COVID-19 Equity Response Team issued a report and recommendations in 2020, citing weathering (and “racial battle fatigue”) as documented and established realities of American life. Weathering was recently extended beyond American people of color and accepted as evidence in federal courts to win early release of non-white detainees, some as young as their 30s, who were deemed to be prematurely aged and therefore at higher risk for COVID complications.

Some critics are beginning to push back against what they see as the heavy-handed, COVID-era politicization of healthcare. Ian Kingsbury, research director at Do No Harm, a nonprofit that seeks to keep identity politics out of medicine, said the uncritical acceptance of the weathering hypothesis as factual science has created an aura of invincibility.

“Unfortunately, judges and other policymakers look to academic journals to be authoritative and trustworthy voices on what is evidence and what is science,” said Kingsbury. “And so you sneak this stuff in there and, unfortunately, as far as a lot of people are concerned, you’ve created knowledge.”

More broadly, Boston University public health dean Sandro Galea warned in a new book, “Within Reason: A Liberal Public Health for an Illiberal Time,” that his profession has veered into overcorrection and revolutionary excess. Galea doesn’t name names in his book, but he rebukes public health advocates for favoring political narratives over empirical data, denying the reality of social progress, and fixating on a utopian quest “to create a world free of risk.”

Geronimus did not respond to emails requesting an interview for this article.

The rise and reach of Geronimus’ weathering hypothesis – a once obscure and idiosyncratic idea that is becoming conventional wisdom in medicine – provides a window into how activist rhetoric and social justice ideology pioneered by feminist, queer, and critical race theorists are recasting healthcare as a Machiavellian power struggle between the privileged and the oppressed.

The public health field has long focused on “social determinants of health,” such as one’s environment and socioeconomic status, as contributors to health outcomes. The weathering hypothesis takes political empowerment to the next level, by medicalizing social relations and politicizing medicine. Weathering prefigured the recent flood of medical research that centers race in public policy and supplies the rationale for such moves as 265 public authorities declaring racism as a public health crisis; health officials jettisoning colorblindness and prioritizing people of color for COVID vaccinations and heart treatment; and medical schools training future doctors in social justice activism.

In her 2023 book, “Weathering: The Extraordinary Stress of Ordinary Life in an Unjust Society,” Geronimus sweeps across time and space, omnisciently diagnosing celebrities and public figures with weathering. She claims it explains why Martin Luther King Jr. had the damaged heart of a 60-year-old when he was assassinated at age 39 and why Fannie Lou Hamer died of breast cancer and complications of hypertension at age 59. She asserts that the trauma of being black in America is one reason why tennis greats Serena Williams had life-threatening blood clots at age 36, and why Arthur Ashe had a heart attack at age 36.

“Success comes at a spectacularly high health cost for those who have to fight the hardest to achieve it in the context of a society that doesn’t value them,” Geronimus stated in her book. “Structural violence is insidious, pervasive, and fateful. It is the fundamental cause of weathering, and it is entirely ignored in the age-washing narrative.”

It is amply documented that African Americans of all social classes have worse health outcomes, earlier onset of chronic diseases, and average life expectancies reported as five to six years less than whites. Weathering science, as Geronimus calls it, measures various biomarkers of what is presumed to be psychosocial stress – such as cortisol levels, telomere lengths, cytokine storms, and allostatic loads – to make the case that on average black adults are as much as 10 years older biologically than white people of a comparable chronological age.

But the data is complicated, requires interpretation, and doesn’t always add up. For example, in a 2021 study, a gerontology scholar at the University of Southern California assessed 13 measures of epigenetic aging. It found that some of the measures indicate accelerated aging among African Americans, while others indicate slower aging for African Americans. Epigenetics refers to the way genes function or malfunction under environmental stress and cultural conditions; most of these “epigenetic clocks” associate accelerated aging with obesity and lifetime smoking. This research, noting “the lack of expected effects of race and ethnicity,” suggests that there is no gold standard for measuring premature aging, and that weathering research is highly sensitive to the variables and measures that researchers select.

Nevertheless, Geronimus compares the African American experience of living and working among white people to the fight-or-flight adrenaline rush of a prehistoric human fleeing a cheetah – except, she says, that a 21st-century black person in a majority white society is trapped in that high-stress mode all day, every day, without reprieve, resulting in a flood of stress hormones that dysregulate the body.

Fluent in the language of social justice activism, Geronimus describes American society as a relentless onslaught of “microaggressions,” “othering,” “existential insults,” “daily indignities,” “voice erasure,” “identity threat” and other forms of “cultural oppression” that lead to early death. In response to those ever-present dangers in “the privileged space known as whiteness,” black people are constantly forced to adopt “high effort coping strategies” that Geronimus describes as “identity management” and “identity safety.” In a 2015 study titled “Black Lives Matter,” Geronimus and her co-authors estimated that racism and weathering caused 2.7 million “excess black deaths” in the United States between 1970 and 2004, a death toll of genocidal proportions.

This one-dimensional way of analyzing social relations has the effect of privileging the stress of those presumed to be oppressed, said Stanley Goldfarb, a professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania’s medical school and founder and chairman of the Do No Harm nonprofit.

“The problem with the theory is that these hormones and these stress responses don’t know what skin color you have,” Goldfarb said. “The point is: What’s unique about their stress? The point isn’t that stress is bad. The point is you decided that your stress is unique and different from everybody else’s stress.”

Still, weathering is an attractive explanation to researchers because the link between psychosocial stress and physical wear and tear is consistent with lower life expectancy for African Americans and lower-income people.

Moreover, the hypothesis is “very intuitive” to economists because of its similarity to modeling health depreciation, and to social scientists who seek explanations of differential outcomes, said economist Robert Kaestner, a University of Chicago public policy professor who co-authored a weathering study with Geronimus in 2009.

However, weathering studies do not actually measure stress or racism, but only correlate biological metrics back to the weathering hypothesis. The scientific conundrum is that the same biological evidence that supports weathering could also be “consistent with a lot of other things,” Kaestner said in a phone interview. “It’s always a measurement problem.”

“Weathering is a hypothesis, still in search of definitive evidence,” Kaestner said. “I’ve never seen one [study] – including my own – where it’s a definitive study that this really is a smoking gun that racism or prolonged psychosocial stress causes adverse health outcomes.”

Stress and racism are assumed as the causes of overeating, smoking and other unhealthy habits, in large part because the public health field and medical research steer clear of explanations that are genetic, biological, behavioral or cultural – which would violate the rule that prohibits blaming the victim.

“That the chronic cascade of stress hormones in the bloodstream may also physiologically propel us toward eating ‘comfort’ foods high in fats and sugars, or to turn to alcohol or other drugs for relief, only makes this problem all the worse,” Geronimus writes in her book.

This leaves only one permissible option: structural oppression. A reader of these studies will be struck by the absence of alternative explanations.

“They’re writing a story about weathering. I’m going to leave it at that,” Kaestner said. “It’s a widely held view that this is in fact what’s happening. There’s tons of these correlation studies that really don’t get anywhere near documenting a causal relationship, but if you write enough of them, it becomes conventional wisdom in the public health community.”

Still, the hypothesis can exert hypnotic powers on acolytes. Last year, during a burst of media fascination in Geronimus’s book, Britain’s Guardian newspaper reported that Geronimus “presents a staggering accumulation of evidence to show how daily discrimination grinds people down and all too often leads to debilitating illness and early death.”

Less than three weeks later, the Guardian ran another article about weathering, in which Geronimus convinced a black reporter that there’s no escape from the weathering trap without restructuring modern societies.

“By the end of our conversation I feel trapped – hyperaware of all the ways my social identity as a member of a black minority exposes me to stressors,” the Guardian writer ruminated. “Am I trapped?”

“I think there are things you can do that will make a difference, but you are stuck being weathered,” Geronimus responded. “And it really will take other kinds of structural changes for weathering not to happen.”

Geronimus asserts that the totalizing nature of white society renders conventional prescriptions for good health – diet and exercise – as naive and possibly dangerous.

“Exercise can be beneficial, but a Black person considering taking a run will be unlikely to forget that Ahmaud Arbery was shot to death while jogging because he was Black,” she writes in reference to a 2020 fatal policing incident in Georgia. “And how can a Black person relax into restorative sleep knowing Breonna Taylor was shot to death by police [in Louisville, Kentucky in 2020] as she slept in her own apartment?”

Geronimus offers one possibility of a safe space for black people in a 2020 study, co-authored by one of her former students. The paper claims that black students who enroll or attend a historically black college or university are shielded from racism and therefore 35% less likely to develop obesity, diabetes or related cardiovascular symptoms than black kids who attend a “predominantly white institution.”

The conclusions are extrapolated from a sample of 727 black participants in a national health survey. The health benefits, she reported, are even more pronounced for black people who grow up in racially segregated neighborhoods – a finding that flies in the face of decades of research that links racial segregation to racial disparities across a wide swath of measures, from education to net worth.

The influence of the weathering hypothesis – especially the claim that racism has profound effects on biology and epigenetics – can even be seen in research that ostensibly challenges Geronimus’ hypothesis.

In 2021, Harvard University sociologist Ellis Monk published a study concluding that black-on-black in-group prejudice – known as “colorism” – can have a pernicious effect on the physical health of African Americans for common conditions and ailments, such as hypertension, diabetes, stroke, heart trouble, vision loss, hearing loss, cancer and kidney problems.

One could interpret colorism as undermining the racial power theories of the weathering hypothesis, but Monk interprets colorism as a form of white supremacy.

“One way that white supremacy proceeds, or racial domination proceeds, is by recruiting members of the stigmatized category as agents in the system,” Monk explained in a 2018 colloquium at Harvard, an interpretation repeated in his research. “That’s the way the system works.”

Geronimus’ more recent research concludes that people of color are not the only victims of weathering. She has expanded the hypothesis to include working-class Appalachian whites who experience poverty and social stigma, and to Ashkenazi Jews who were persecuted in Europe or stigmatized by antisemitism in this country. She cites her father as an example, describing how he donned his psychological armor every day to go to work among gentiles at his bench job in a bacteriology laboratory, and died in his 60s of an inflammatory disease that affected multiple organs, including the lungs and heart.

The continued expansion of the weathering hypothesis is gaining traction. Geronimus writes that in 2020 she was asked by immigration attorney Kari Hong to submit expert testimony on weathering in support of early release petitions for immigrant asylum seekers who were being held in detention. Hong argued to federal judges that these foreign-born detainees were “biologically older than their chronological age” and should be released “just as senior citizen detainees.”

According to the New York Times, Hong won early release for “all seven detainees,” based on Geronimus’ weathering testimony. Those cases are sealed under federal court rules, and Hong did not respond to emails, but according to limited public information, most were Hispanic or African. And some were in their 30s and had no symptoms or diagnosis. Although weathering is still most commonly used in connection with African Americans, its expansion to other groups is both true to Geronimus’ original concept and a reflection of her growing influence.

A hypothesis first developed to correct what she saw as moral judgment and victim-blaming of the black underclass developed into an expansive theory of the United States as a soul-crushing, body-destroying totalitarian hellscape she has ominously called “the surround.”

In a 2015 paper she and her co-authors described the “the surround” as a clandestine program of cultural brainwashing that operates by means of “phantasms” that implant a virtual social reality into the brains of unsuspecting victims through the imposition of culture and power.

The paper, does, however, suggest that health equity for the oppressed is attainable through a total immersion in social activism: “Counter narratives, oppositional gaze development (or critical consciousness raising), and protest.”

Ultimately, the subject of weathering is linked to a whole range of progressive moral concerns – from the gender binary to climate change. And the solutions that Geronimus proposes in her book include a return to “collectivism” – in the form of extended, multigenerational, cross-household, women-centered kinship networks.

“Contrary to popular opinion and accepted wisdom,” she writes, “healthy aging is a measure not of how well we take care of ourselves but rather of how well society treats and takes care of us.”

In what was a rather uneventful quarter for Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, the massive hedge fund made only a few modest changes to its portfolio in Q4 2023, which as of Dec 31, 2023 was valued as $347.4 billion (at least the long book, short positions don’t have to be disclosed).

Among the notable changes, Berkshire sold out of its entire stake in homebuilder DR Horton (valued at $641MM in Q3), Markel ($234MM), StoneCo ($114MM) and Globe Life ($90MM).

The fund also reduced its holdings in its top position Apple, by 10 million shares, cutting the total stake from 915.6MM to 905.6MM shares, although since the value of the underlying shares actually rose from $157 billion to $174 billion, the reduction was probably due to size limitations.

Berkshire also trimmed its holdings of Paramount Global by 30 million shares, or 32.4%, from 93.7 million to 63.3 million shares (which sent the stock down 6% after hours), and slashed its stake in HP Inc by 77.7% (or 80 million shares), from 102.5 million to 22.9 million shares.

Finally, while Berkshire did not reveal any new positions, it added to its holdings in energy giants Chevron – an increase of 14.4% to 126 million shares – and Occidental, which rose by 8.7% to 243.7 million shares. The fund also added 30.6 million shares to its existing small stake in Sirius XM, bringing it to a total of 40.2 million shares, or $220 million as of Dec 31.

The full Q4 breakdown is shown below.

Source: SEC 13F.

Authored by Sean Trende via RealClear Wire,

A few weeks ago, a “Morning Joe” panel concluded that if Donald Trump were to become the Republican nominee (spoiler alert: he will), Republicans will lose in the fall. This is by no means a unique sentiment – former House Speaker Paul Ryan expressing this idea here, journalist Bernard Goldberg wondering if Trump is trying to lose here, and so forth.

As I read these analyses, I wonder if I’ve somehow been transported back to 2016, when such takes were de rigueur. Here in 2024, we know that Donald Trump won in 2016 and came close to winning in 2020. He carried Republican senators across the finish line in both years, and the GOP gained House seats in 2020, much to the surprise of most election analysts. And, at a comparable time in the campaign cycle when he trailed Hillary Clinton by 4.5 points in the RCP Average and Joe Biden by 5.6 points, Trump actually leads Biden by 1.9 points in national polling.

My goal here isn’t to rehash the arguments over whether Trump can win – I think that’s plain enough. Nor is it to make a case Trump should win; anyone who has followed me on Twitter over the past decade knows my opinion on that. Rather, it’s to talk about the continued blindness of the old power structure of the GOP regarding Trump’s allure.

The bottom line is that Trump’s appeal isn’t geared toward white college educated voters, which leaves us unable to see its foundations. For decades, as Michael Barone has pointed out, the GOP was defined in large part as the party that “the system” benefited, while the Democrats were a collection of outsiders. That began to shift in 1992, when Bill Clinton began a full-frontal assault on Republican hegemony among the “winners.” Over time, the appeal of Democratic nominees increasingly tilted toward that message, and away from the older “outcasts” approach.

So for decades, college-educated whites have been in a situation where both parties were largely focusing their messages on them. Yes, Democrats had more of a populist approach, and yes, Republicans would always have candidates with a bit of a patrician air, but overall the focus was on winning the suburbs.

It is a bit jarring, then, to have a Republican nominee like Trump suddenly tailor his appeal toward people who think the system doesn’t benefit them. It’s an interesting strategic shift to disengage in large part from the fight over college-educated whites. It also has its pluses and minuses. One of the major pluses, and this is overlooked by college-educated Republicans who believe that the party’s message should still be geared toward them, is that Trump succeeded where the old GOP failed: by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and then very nearly winning them a second time in 2020. Iowa and Ohio were where GOP dreams once went to die; now they are solidly red states.

This gets to the final point that I think the old GOP establishment hasn’t fully digested: The revolt of the party’s former base isn’t without a rational basis. During Ronald Reagan’s presidency, the excuse for not fully enacting a conservative agenda was that Republicans never controlled the House. Fair enough. Then, in 2000, the GOP won the “trifecta” for the first time since the 1950s. That ended after a few months when a Republican senator from Vermont – whom the GOP had supported in his 2000 reelection bid – switched parties. Republicans won the trifecta again in 2002, and expanded those majorities in 2004.

Yet at the end of the Bush years, what did Republicans have to show for it? Expiring tax cuts, the GOP’s reputation on foreign policy in tatters, No Child Left Behind, TARP, and an expansion of Medicare to cover prescription drugs. This wasn’t really what conservatives had been promised.

There was also the revolt against comprehensive immigration reform, which was repeated in 2013. The old GOP’s response? To go all-in for Jeb Bush, whose main bona fides were his commitment to immigration reform and ability to modulate his Spanish accent depending on the audience.

I personally favor immigration reform and think TARP is one reason I light my house with electricity and not candles today. But the point of politics is that you must appeal to a broader polity which may not always desire the “best” policies. It was beyond obvious by 2015 that the GOP polity’s desires were very different from the establishment’s desires, which sometimes seemed geared toward winning over the votes of three people in think-tank cubicles (two of whom were voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson anyway).

Whatever else you might say about Donald J. Trump (and there is much to say), his appeal is fundamentally different than previous Republican candidates. But it is not narrower.

All of this is to say that of course Donald Trump can win again. More importantly, if the GOP establishment/remaining NeverTrump portion of the GOP wants to have a say in Republican politics in the future, they really need to work on figuring out why.

Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and author of The Lost Majority. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter @SeanTrende.

If NVDA et al. are all going to the moon on CapEx (yes we know its GPU/CPU spend) then why is the world’s largest manufacturer of computer networking equipment slashing jobs after a slowdown in corporate tech spending wiped out its sales growth.

Presumably all those GPUs/CPUs need to be ‘networked’ to each other and the world?

We asked ChatGPT, just to be sure…

The expansion of AI (Artificial Intelligence) and the increasing demand for GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) have significant implications for networking companies like Cisco, primarily through indirect relationships that stem from the broader ecosystem of data centers, cloud computing, and internet infrastructure.

Here’s how these connections unfold:

• Increased Data Center Needs: AI and GPU-intensive tasks require substantial computational power, which is often provided by data centers. As companies and institutions deploy more AI models, the demand for data center capacity increases. Networking equipment, such as switches, routers, and security appliances provided by companies like Cisco, is critical for the operation, reliability, and efficiency of these data centers.

• Enhanced Network Requirements: AI applications, especially those relying on real-time data analysis and decision-making (like autonomous vehicles or IoT devices), necessitate robust, low-latency networks to function effectively. The growth in AI applications can drive demand for advanced networking technologies, including those supporting higher speeds and lower latency. Cisco, being a leading provider of networking equipment, stands to benefit from this trend as organizations upgrade their networks to support AI applications.

• Cloud Computing Expansion: Many AI models are trained and deployed in the cloud due to the vast computational resources required. This has led to an expansion of cloud infrastructure, where Cisco’s networking solutions play a crucial role in connecting and securing cloud environments. As cloud providers expand their infrastructure to accommodate AI workloads, they need to invest in networking gear, benefiting manufacturers like Cisco.

• Edge Computing Growth: AI applications often require processing at the edge of the network to reduce latency. This necessitates a distributed network architecture, where data is processed closer to where it is generated rather than being sent back to a central data center or the cloud. Cisco and similar companies offer solutions for edge computing, including networking equipment that can handle the demands of AI-driven applications at the edge.

• Security Concerns: With the expansion of AI and increased connectivity, security becomes even more critical. AI systems themselves can be targets for cyberattacks, and they also increase the complexity of IT environments. Networking companies like Cisco, which also provide cybersecurity solutions, are crucial in securing the data and the pathways it travels across.

In summary, while Cisco and similar networking companies are not directly involved in the production of AI models or GPUs, the expansion of AI and the demand for GPUs are tied to increased requirements for networking infrastructure. This, in turn, can drive business for companies like Cisco that provide the necessary networking hardware, software, and services to support these growing technologies.

So, back to CSCO results…

Having already lowered the bar at the last earnings, the giant tech company has said that it’s been hit by a temporary “pause” in orders from customers who are busy installing equipment they’ve already acquired.

In Cisco’s fiscal second quarter, which ended Jan. 27, revenue fell 6% to $12.8 billion. That was the company’s first contraction in three years. Profit was 87 cents a share, minus some items. Analysts had estimated revenue of $12.7 billion and earnings of 92 cents a share.

Analysts expect demand for Cisco’s products to remain under pressure, as clients in the telecom industry restrict spending as do cloud companies that are prioritizing clearing their excess inventory of networking gear.

This led the tech giant to cut its fiscal third quarter sales to $12.1-$12.3 billion (down from the $13.1 billion consensus), and slash profit expectations to 86c/share from 92c/share. For the full year, revenue expectations were cut to $51.5 – $52.5 billion (from $53.8 – $55 billion consensus).

But the CEO was very confident…

“We delivered a solid second quarter with strong operating leverage and capital returns,” said Chuck Robbins, chair and CEO of Cisco.

“We continue to align our investments to future growth opportunities. Our innovation sits at the center of an increasingly connected ecosystem and will play a critical role as our customers adopt AI and secure their organizations.”

Investors have been waiting to see how much Cisco will benefit from surging spending on artificial intelligence computer systems.

Earlier this month, it announced it’s working with chipmaker Nvidia Corp. to help corporate clients more easily deploy AI.

But, if that’s such a great opportunity, why is the company cutting 5% of its global workforce?

Apparently, the restructuring is to focus on high-growth areas, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters earlier this month.

However, judging by the market’s reaction, the forecast adds to concern that businesses are reining in tech spending.

CSCO’s shares are down 6% after hours – back at their lowest since November’s earnings plunge…

Maybe we are just too old and dumb to realize that chatbots don’t need to be networked?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel has pulled out of talk with Hamas, and repeated the complaint that Hamas’ conditions for a possible ceasefire are “delusional”. 

“Israel is holding out for Hamas to change its position before taking any further role in negotiations, the PM’s office said Wednesday,” Bloomberg reports.

The official statement reads: “Netanyahu insists that Israel will not give in to Hamas’s delusional demands.” His office stipulated that “A change in Hamas’s positions will allow the negotiations to advance.” Hamas has insisted that for a deal to proceed, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would have to completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip first. The Israeli side has rejected the demand as a non-starter.

The Israeli delegation under Mossad intelligence chief David Barnea returned to Israel from talks in Egypt on Tuesday. This new development means Netanyahu is declaring he’s ‘done’ with the talks.

A group representing families of the remaining hostages has said it is “stunned” by Netanyahu’s pullout from negotiations. The Israeli PM reportedly didn’t want to send representatives to Cairo at all, but Israeli media says the Biden administration brought immense pressure to bear for him to do so.

Families of the hostages have also accused Netanyahu of actively ‘thwarting’ the negotiations, alleging he has an interest in keeping the war going for the sake of his own political survival. Part of the controversy too is that the mainstay of the peace plan was drawn up by Israel’s own Mossad spy agency, the Shin Bet security agency, and the IDF.

The New York Times on Wednesday says talks will now go to a “lower level” – but at the moment the reality seems that only the outside major powers serving as mediators are interested in pushing Hamas and Israel to the table, while the warring parties themselves aren’t interested: 

Negotiations in Cairo over a possible agreement to pause the fighting in Gaza have been extended for another three days, according to an Egyptian official briefed on the talks, after a first day of high-level negotiations on Tuesday ended without an agreement.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said the tenor of the talks was positive.

The talks over the next three days will involve lower-level officials, who will continue discussing a new framework for a deal, one that would ensure a certain number of hostages would be released and that the fighting would be halted for a certain number of weeks, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic talks.

In the meantime, the assault on the southern city of Rafah, packed with some one million refugees, continues to escalate:

ISRAEL TO OPERATE IN RAFAH AFTER CIVILIANS ALLOWED TO LEAVE: PM

The Biden admin won’t punish Israel for a Rafah military operation that doesn’t protect civilians.

Three U.S. officials told us no reprimand plans are in the works, meaning Israeli forces could harm civilians in the city with no American consequences. https://t.co/PRW7f5XyaS

— POLITICO (@politico) February 13, 2024

NYT has summarized late-breaking developments Wednesday as follows:

• Cease-fire talks in Cairo will go on at a lower level, a U.S. official says.
• Fear of ‘a slaughter’ in Rafah build as negotiators race for a deal.
• A Hezbollah attack injures 2 Israelis as a push to reduce tensions intensifies.
• France imposes sanctions on West Bank settlers, joining the U.S. and Britain.
• South Africa asks the U.N.’s top court to act against Israel’s plans for Rafah.
• Israel orders an evacuation of the largest hospital in Khan Younis.
• A U.S. aid bill for Israel and Ukraine faces Republican opposition in the House.

The CIA’s William Burns is in Cairo representing the US, and he met Tuesday with Mossad’s Barnea as well as President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Qatar has continued to serve as indirect representative for Hamas.

Chaos erupted at the Kansas City Chiefs Superbowl parade on the streets of Kansas City, Missouri, on Wednesday afternoon after reports of a shooting. 

“Shots have been fired around Union Station. Please leave the area,” Kansas City Police posted to X.

“We need people to exit the area as quickly and safely as possible and avoid the parking garage in order to facilitate treatment of shooting victims,” police said, adding, “Many of you have footage of many officers securing union station, they are working to provide for the safety of everyone inside union station and expedite care of those injured.”

Shots have been fired around Union Station. Please leave the area.

— kcpolice (@kcpolice) February 14, 2024

Daily Mail states, “Two gunmen have been detained after shots rang out at the Kansas City Chiefs Superbowl parade, sending thousands fleeing as the celebration descended into chaos.” 

Other reports state that “several people were struck by gunfire.” 

According to X user Breaking 911, here’s what is known so far:

BREAKING: ‘Multiple Victims’ in Super Bowl Parade Shooting in Kansas City

• Police respond to shooting at Kansas City Chiefs’ victory rally at Union Station.

• Kansas City Fire Department confirms shooting, labels situation as “fluid.”

• Shots fired west of Union Station;… pic.twitter.com/1VZ6tbrE6u

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) February 14, 2024

Videos posted on X show fans scrambling for safety. 

John O’Connor of Kansas City gives his account of active shooting, he said he heard 15-20 shots left of the stage. Situation highly tense on ground.#KansasCity #KansasCityChiefs #Kansas #SuperBowl2024pic.twitter.com/l616La1ouU

— Target Reporter (@Target_Reporter) February 14, 2024

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Parade Shooting
– Clip from James Palmer of NFL Network
– Hosting parade and told to take cover under the stagepic.twitter.com/A2jfwDcYz9

— Brendan (@BrendanMcInnis) February 14, 2024

is this who we are kansas city??? y’all can’t go an hour without a shooting?? pic.twitter.com/gNP4mzEprV

— 𐚁 (was @BEYONCÉ) (@notblazedpx) February 14, 2024

NEW: 1 person has died, and at least 9 people are injured after shooting near Chiefs parade in Kansas City
pic.twitter.com/hSnkGUuVun

— Oliya Scootercaster 🛴 (@ScooterCasterNY) February 14, 2024

*Developing… 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Everything is presented as rock-solid until it falls apart.

Of the many signs of systemic decay in the late Roman Empire, one of particular relevance to our era is the Phantom Legion, military units that on paper were at full strength–and paid accordingly–but which were in reality no longer there: the paymaster collected the silver wages and recorded the unit’s roll of officers and soldiers, but it was all make-believe.

When the Empire’s wealth seems limitless, graft, embezzlement and fraud all seem harmless to those skimming the wealth. Look, the Empire is forever, what harm is there in my little self-interested skim?

This rot starts at the top, of course, and then seeps into every nook and cranny of the system. When those at the top are getting fabulously wealthy on modest salaries while claiming to serve the public, the signal is clear: go ahead and maximize your own private gain at the expense of the public and the state. Civic virtue–the backbone of the Empire–decayed into self-interest, incompetence and indulgence.

The “Phantom Legion” Problem has another wrinkle: the legion is reported at full strength, but the actual number of soldiers is far lower than the reported number, and the competence of the officers is so low that the legion is incapable of performing its duties. In other words, the numbers don’t reflect the actual utility-value of the legion as a combat unit: the soldiers may be ill-trained, ill-equipped and poorly fed, and the officers inexperienced, corrupt or just waiting for their term of duty to end.

In the present day, this is how The Phantom Legion Problem manifests: the agency / institution is reported at full strength and fully capable of performing all its duties, but beneath the surface it’s lacking experienced staff and competent leadership, and much of the staffing is in unproductive, dead-wood administrative positions.

Taking healthcare as an example, we find experienced frontline caregivers are retiring and not being replaced with equivalent numbers of staff with the equivalent experience. We find caregivers are burning out due to crushing workloads, or quitting the profession in order to have a family and get their life back.

Meanwhile, the number of administrators increases, soaking up the system’s funding with endlessly expanding compliance data entry, reports, etc., all of which adds additional burdens on those actually providing care.

There’s always enough money to increase administrators’ salaries, but not enough to maintain essential systems or hire more caregivers.

The Phantom Legion Problem plays out in many ways in modern bureaucracies. The number of sworn officers in a police department may appear adequate but if many are assigned to desks, the PD is not actually at full strength.

If administrators are advanced due to their PR and financial skills rather than on their competence in actually leading the organization, the Phantom Legion problem is already terminal. the rot starts at the top, and those actually carrying the weight fulfilling the organization’s mission burn out, get disgusted and give up.

The problem with The Phantom Legion Problem is there is every incentive to hide the decay of systemic competence and capability behind glowing annual reports and ginned-up numbers. Only those within the organization know the truth and they are under pressure to keep quiet, lest they find themselves on the slow train to Siberia.

Here is how systems decay and collapse: everything is reported at full strength, but the numbers don’t reflect reality. Everything is presented as rock-solid until it falls apart. Everyone outside the system is in disbelief while insiders wondered how it held together as long as it did.

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Last night, ZeroHedge kicked off our third live debate to discuss the fate of the U.S. Dollar and whether it will continue to dominate global trade. Our esteemed economic experts vigorously debated the question: Will the Dollar remain the global reserve currency in 2030?

Intros

Making the negative case, Austrian economist Bob Murphy put forth a succinct case why foreigners will continue to ditch the dollar. In simple terms, an abysmal fiscal situation and poor customer service.

“These numbers are astronomical,” said Murphy, adding “It’s happening right now.“

“So yes, I don’t see a non-painful way to change this trajectory. And other things equal, you’re a foreigner and you keep seeing them pile up the debt – you’re going to conclude ‘this is unsustainable, we need to start weaning ourselves off of reliance on this currency.“

Brent “Dollar Milkshake” Johnson countered that — despite the many blunders of the Biden administration — the dollar is stronger than ever with the core driver being the overseas “Eurodollar” market wherein trillions of USD-denominated debt remains outstandin.

“To your point, reserves have fallen. Interest rates have risen. The interest expense is now the highest line-item in the US budget,” said Johnson. “But all that has done is turbocharged the dollar.“

“Despite helicopter money. Despite PPP. Despite numerous bailouts. Despite BTFP. Despite a guy in the White House who really doesn’t know where he’s at. Despite a horrible withdrawal from Afghanistan… you can go on and on about the reasons that the US is in a bad situation and as a result the interest rates are going to rise. But the interest rates rising makes the dollar more attractive.“

BRICS

A heated dispute arose on the viability of BRICS, the burgeoning trade alliance widely viewed as a potential usurper to the USD regime.

While Rabobank’s Michael Every dismissed the alliance’s prospects due to members’ heavy commodity-based economies (with the exception of China’s), economist Jim Rickards pushed back, arguing “the BRICS will surpass the dollar” with the help of Brazil consumer exports and — most crucially — the proposal to link a future BRICS currency to gold:

The pair continued sparring on the question of, “Which is the stronger country: the United States or Russia?”:

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

One day, your checking account may not exist at a private bank but at the Federal Reserve. This is essentially the crux of what differentiates a CBDC from the current digital banking system.

Hitting on a note of agreement, panelists said that — while it’s hard to say when such a transition will officially take place — governments are nudging in this direction already. They agreed on one thing: CBDCs mean more centralized political control.

Bob Murphy, founder of Infineo and senior fellow at The Mises Institute, illustrated the eerie slide to monetary totalitarianism, “I go to the ATM, and the amount that it suggests I want to take out has gone down over time even though that amount purchases less. And so there really is this concerted effort to ween us from using currency — you know — paper.”:

Watch the full debate here and be sure to stay tuned for the next one:

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CreditNews.com,

A growing percentage of Americans are becoming reckless with their spending, fueling what one economist calls a “super duper” credit bubble.

In a note to clients, economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research warned that Americans are taking on too much debt to buy things they really don’t need. He calls these people “YOLO spenders,” which refers to the catchphrase, “You only live once.”

“There is no acknowledgment today that, yet again, we have a super-duper credit bubble on our hands,” Rosenberg wrote.

“It isn’t just about fiscal recklessness at the government level; the dilemma is that the consumer commands a dominant 70% share of the economy.”

That credit bubble has created the illusion of a strong economy, but it’s really a ticking time bomb that’s about to go off.

For starters, more Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments. According to Rosenberg, one in every 12 credit card holders is in this predicament.

The last time delinquency was this high was in 2011, when unemployment was 9%. The national unemployment rate currently stands at 3.7%, among the lowest in history.

“As far as consumer credit is concerned, the default cycle isn’t merely looming. It’s arrived,” he warned.

As Creditnews reported, Americans added a whopping $50 billion to their credit card balances last quarter, bringing credit card debt to a new all-time high of $1.13 trillion.

While the overall debt balance isn’t necessarily bad, it can quickly snowball into something much worse under one pressing scenario.

It’s all about employment

It might sound obvious, but economists say Americans should be able to pay their credit card bills so long as they stay employed. Although unemployment remains low, cracks in the labor market have emerged.

The number of Americans quitting their jobs declined sharply last year, a sign that workers don’t have as many options or bargaining power as they did coming out of Covid. Meanwhile, Big Tech companies laid off tens of thousands of workers last month.

While a recession appears less likely now, economists at the IMF and Conference Board are forecasting a stall in economic growth this year, potentially leading to a “credit crunch.”

“What happens if the economy slows and unemployment quickly rises? Delinquencies could surge, in turn leading to a self-reinforcing credit crunch,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

“In other words, a mild downturn could turn into a deep one.”

“Overall, the consumer is credit healthy. However, the reality is that there are starting to be some significant signs of stress,” Silvio Tavares, president and CEO of credit rating system VantageScore, told the Associated Press.

That stress is likely being felt even more now after Americans splurged on the holidays.

The payday is due

YOLO’ing has costs, especially for those who haven’t benefited from the post-Covid asset inflation.

“You have these noticeable pockets of consumers—mostly middle- and lower-income renters who have not benefitted from the wealth effect of higher housing prices and stock prices—who are feeling financial stress, and that’s driving up […] delinquency levels. They’ve been hit very hard by inflation,” according to Warren Kornfeld, a senior vice president at Moody’s.

The holidays may have been a time to forget those worries—after all, consumer spending surged by $208 billion in the fourth quarter—but the post-holiday hangover is now being felt.

“Millions of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and just didn’t have the extra money to pay for holiday purchases,” Andrea Woroch, consumer and money-saving expert, told U.S. News.

“They also weren’t willing to sacrifice the season for their family and kids, so they took on debt to make it magical,” she said.

On Wednesday Israel warplanes have been widely reported to be flying at low altitude over Beirut, which is a rarity, amid fears the conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border is about to expand into major war.

Israel’s Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Gen. Herzi Halevi, said Wednesday that “If a war breaks out in the north, the army will use all its tool and capabilities,” as cited in Al Arabiya.

Earlier in the day Sky News reported that an “extensive wave” of attacks were launched on southern Lebanon by Israel, in the latest salvo against Hezbollah. However at least three Lebanese civilians were reported dead in the aftermath: a woman and two children. The attacks resulted in fires erupting in area buildings.

An additional seven others were wounded in the large strikes which pounded villages across the south. Regional reports say that the Israeli strikes were retaliation for a presumed Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel which killed a woman and wounded several others. The location in question is eight miles from the Lebanese border. According to details in Israeli media:

An Israeli woman was killed and eight others were wounded as a barrage of rockets fired from Lebanon slammed into Safed and an army base in the northern city, the military and medical officials said.

In response to the attack, the IDF said it launched “widespread” airstrikes against targets belonging to the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon.

“Numerous launches were identified crossing from Lebanon into the areas of Netua, Menara, and into an IDF base in northern Israel,” the military said, adding that it is hitting back from launch sides on the Lebanese side. Big explosions and casualties have also been reported in Haifa.

Meanwhile, while meeting with civilian leaders of communities in northern Israel in the aftermath of Wednesday’s violence, Gen. Halevi said “there is still a long way to go” in stopping the security threat from Hezbollah, which has resulted in dozens of Isreaeli towns remaining evacuated near the border.

BREAKING| The Lebanese Civil Defense says the casualties of the Israeli strikes on several civilian areas across southern Lebanon rose to 4 victims, including a mother and two children, and 11 injuries.
pic.twitter.com/8IKtDQH33V

— Dr.Sam Youssef Ph.D.,M.Sc.,DPT. (@drhossamsamy65) February 14, 2024

He told mayors from the region: “Thanks to you, the IDF can act decisively to change the security situation in the north. There are very great achievements in hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon, but we continue to act. This is not the point to stop. There is still a long way to go and we will walk it together.”

Kan News published this video of rockets pounding the base in northern Israel:

שלושה פצועים בינוני כתוצאה מהפגיעה באזור צפת | תיעוד רגע הפגיעה והבהלה @ItayBlumental @rubih67 pic.twitter.com/TJiUOMMwVZ

— כאן חדשות (@kann_news) February 14, 2024

On Tuesday, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah gave a televised speech wherein he warned that his fighters will not stop its attacks on Israeli troops until the assault on Gaza is ended.

According to an Al-Manar correspondent…

The resistance in Southern Lebanon, has so far attacked:

• HQ of the Northern Region Command in Safad.
• Command HQ of the 91st Galilee Division in “Branit”
• HQ of the 769th Eastern Brigade in Kiryat Shmona.
• Meron Air command and control base
• Beit Hillel IOF base
• Training camp in Kela, in the occupied Golan Heights
• Ma’ale Golan IOF base on Mount Hermon
• Most artillery positions along the rear front and military concentrations
• Every single border military IOF sites

Injured israelis were transferred to Rambam hospital, north of Haifa, due to the recent rocket barrage from Southern Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Tw2IgzwYkH

— IRNA News Agency (@IrnaEnglish) February 14, 2024

Nasrallah has meanwhile additionally threatened the further displacement of residents of Northern Israel, according to Reuters. This has been a key issue for Israeli leadership, given that some 80,000 Israeli citizens have been forced out of their homes due to the Hezbollah rocket and mortar barrages, which have come daily.