Futures are higher, led by tech, after the first batch of Mag7 earnings with gold breaking new record highs again, rising as high as $5600. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% while the Nasdaq if barely in the green; pre-mkt it’s a mixed picture with META (+7.9%) rising on higher than expected capex forecast, while MSFT (-6.6%) tumbles on… higher than expected capex forecast; TSLA is also modestly in the green, up +2.8%; AAPL reports today today then AMZN / GOOG next week. Cyclicals are trading higher led by Energy and Industrials and the AI theme also acting well as capex / fundamentals remain supportive of growth. The yield curve is twisting steeper with the USD flat. Commodities remain bid across all 3 complexes with WTI (Iranian supply fears) and precious (fiat incineration trade) the most notable. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims though given Powell’s comments yesterday, Friday’s PPI is more important.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Meta (META) rises 8% after the Facebook parent gave a revenue outlook that was much stronger than expected, which helped offset the surge in projected capex; Microsoft (MSFT) falls 6% after the software giant’s report featured an underwhelming read on growth in its Azure cloud-computing business. Analysts also noted higher-than-expected expenses. Tesla (TSLA) gains 2% after the electric-vehicle giant reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that topped the average analyst estimate. The company also announced a $2 billion investment in xAI and provided updates on its physical AI ventures (Nvidia (NVDA) -0.2%, Apple (AAPL) +0.5%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.3%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.7%)

• Rare earth stocks fall sharply after a report from Reuters said the Trump administration is backing away from plans to guarantee a minimum price for critical minerals projects, citing multiple sources. MP Materials has since refuted the report
• Celestica (CLS) falls 5% after the company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook. While the results were better than expected, analysts noted higher capex as a potential reason behind the stock’s decline.
• CH Robinson (CHRW) rises 5% after the logistics company reported adjusted earnings per share that beat analyst estimates, despite macroeconomic headwinds from global trade policies.
• Dow Inc. (DOW) slips 2% as the chemical company said it will terminate about 4,500 roles as part of a plan to simplify and streamline its end-to-end processes. It also reported net sales for the fourth quarter that were in-line with the average analyst estimate.
• International Business Machines (IBM) gains 9% after the IT services company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts highlighted software revenue and free cash flow as positive.
• International Paper Co. (IP) rises 5% on plans to break up and spin off its European packaging operations.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) drops 10% after the casino operator’s Macau properties — including The Venetian and Londoner — fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
• LendingClub (LC) falls 7% after posting fourth quarter results. BI analyst Herman Chan writes that pre-provision profit missed slightly amid higher marketing expenses and guidance looks somewhat lighter than market expectations.
• ServiceNow (NOW) is down 8% after the software company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts are broadly positive, but Bloomberg Intelligence noted that the backdrop remains uncertain.
• Southwest Airlines (LUV) rises 5% after reporting results that topped analyst estimates, signaling the fruits of a turnaround. Shares are climbing 6.2%.
• VSE Corp. (VSEC) rises 1% after agreeing to buy closely held Precision Aviation Group for about $2.025 billion in a cash-and-stock deal.
• Whirlpool (WHR) falls 11% after the appliance maker’s ongoing earnings-per-share forecast for the full year trailed the average analyst estimate. US levies on imports have yet to give the company an edge over foreign rivals, its chief executive said.

Big tech is back in focus, with markets rewarding AI-heavy capex when it’s paired with stronger-than-expected core business growth, as seen at Meta, or punishing it when momentum disappoints, as Microsoft found out the hard way. 

Meta’s stronger-than-expected revenue outlook helped cushion concerns over rising AI-related spending. The social media giant reported fourth-quarter sales of $59.9 billion, beating the $58.4 billion that Wall Street anticipated.  t signaled that while spending is up, the core business supporting those investments is also growing faster than expected. If Meta hits the top-end of capex guidance for 2026, it will mean a jump of roughly 87% from 2025.

Microsoft’s record spending and slower cloud growth sent its shares down sharply amid investor concerns that it could take longer than expected for the company’s AI investments to pay off. Capex for fiscal second quarter hit $37.5 billion, up 66% from a year earlier and exceeding analyst estimates for $36.2 billion. The Azure cloud-computing unit posted a 38% revenue gain when adjusting for currency fluctuations, just meeting analyst projections.

“We’re back to the theme that we’re not seeing monolithic growth for all the tech companies,” said Rory McPherson, chief investment officer at Magnus Financial Discretionary Management. “Capex spending has increased across the board. The market is just rewarding the ability to monetize it, while placing question marks on companies that aren’t able to do that.”

Looking at earnings, out of the 119 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 77% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 16% have missed. Caterpillar, Dow and Honeywell International are among many companies expected to report results before the market opens. Caterpillar’s revenue is set to accelerate in 4Q, largely driven by higher volume across all segments, as momentum continues to build into 2026. Margin pressure is likely to persist in 4Q due to a step-up in tariffs (about a $725 million headwind) and manufacturing costs. Earnings from Apple, KLA and Stryker and follow later in the day.

The Stoxx 600 rises 0.4%, with mining, energy and industrial shares leading gains. Technology stocks underperform with Germany’s SAP plunging as much as 13% after reporting a disappointing cloud backlog. Meanwhile, miners outperform. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• 3i Group shares rise as much as 15% in London, rebounding from a recent plunge, after the investment firm’s latest results showed a better-than-expected performance for its discount retail business, Action
• ABB rises as much as 9.8% after the Swiss firm predicted higher profitability this year amid a boom in data centers and also announced a $2 billion share buyback. JPMorgan describes orders in the electrical and automation divisions as “blowout”
• STMicro shares rise as much as 5% after the chipmaker gave a better-than-expected 1Q revenue forecast, showing signs of cyclical recovery in demand for analog chips
• EssilorLuxottica shares climb as much as 2.5%, snapping four days of declines. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg on an earnings call said it’s “hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren’t AI glasses”
• European mining shares are the best-performers on the Stoxx 600 benchmark on Thursday after copper posted its biggest one-day gain in years to hit a record above $14,000 a ton
• EasyJet shares rise as much as 3.1% after the airline reported solid first-quarter results and left its outlook for fiscal year 2026 broadly unchanged
• SAP shares drop as much as 13%, the biggest intraday decline in more than five years, after the software firm reported 25% growth in current cloud backlog on constant-currency basis
• H&M shares drop as much as 4.3% after the fashion retailer reported softer current trading than expected, with RBC saying 4Q sales are “a little light” vs. consensus estimates
• Nokia declines as much as 7.4% after the Finnish communications group reported its latest earnings. Analysts say the backwards-looking figures in the report are strong, but 2026 guidance for Network Infrastructure is disappointing
• Givaudan drops as much as 6.7% to the lowest since Oct. 2023 after the Swiss fragrance and flavor maker delivered a weak like-for-like performance in the fourth quarter
• SEB falls as much as 5.7%, the most since April 2025, after the Swedish lender reported its latest earnings, which analysts describe as weak, with a large miss on profits the key disappointment, overshadowing better-than-expected dividends
• Roche shares drop as much as 2.1% after the Swiss drugmaker reported results for the fourth quarter which Intron Health analysts called “soft.” The company also provided guidance for 2026, and analysts see potential for consensus expectations to be cut as a result
• Interroll shares fall as much as 9.6%, the most since last April, after the Swiss industrial-equipment firm’s full-year sales undershot the average analyst estimate. Analysts see some bright spots in the report but highlight headwinds
• Hilton Foods shares drop as much as 9.2%, the most in two months, after the meat producer issued a cautious outlook as inflationary pressures in beef and white fish continue

Earlier in the session, Asian equities edged higher amid mixed trading in heavyweight tech names. Shares in Indonesia pared losses. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2%, after falling as much as 0.7%. SK Hynix and Japan’s Advantest, which surged after its earnings beat, were the biggest boosts to the gauge, while TSMC, Tokyo Electron and Samsung weighed the most. The Indonesian benchmark plunged for a second day, before trimming most of the losses, as investors continue to fret over MSCI’s warning over the market’s investability. The index tumbled as much as 10% before closing 1.1% lower as local regulators said they would double the minimum free-float requirement starting next month.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed having erased an earlier fall. The greenback has struggled this year as investors bet on its long-term decline, with unpredictable policymaking and ballooning deficits adding to its woes. The dollar hasn’t acted like a haven for some time as investors increasingly favor tangible alternatives such as precious metals, DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC.

“The risks of another major leg lower in the dollar remain elevated, even if our bias is for a short-term recovery, given the overall supporting macro and rates picture,” wrote strategists at ING Groep NV including Francesco Pesole.

In rates, treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields near flat at 4.25%. European government bonds are also little changed.

In commodities, Brent crude futures hit $70 a barrel for the first time since September after US President Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal with the US or face military strikes far worse than the attack he ordered last June.

Copper surged by the most in more than 16 years, surging about 6% and earlier hitting a record above $14,000 a ton as metals extended a dramatic start to the year, fueled by a wave of intense speculative trading in China. Spot gold also crossed $5,500/oz for the first while silver briefly surpassed $120/oz, extending its year-to-date advance to around 63%.

“We still have some exposure to gold but at these prices I wouldn’t be that long on it,” said Dan Boardman-Weston, chief investment officer at BRI Wealth Management. “You need it for diversification and it’s been wonderful over the past two years, but now I’m minding my exposure to it.”

The US economic calendar includes 3Q final nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, weekly jobless claims and November trade balance (8:30am), November factory orders and wholesale trade sales (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX -1%
• CAC 40 +0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.25%
• VIX +0.1 points at 16.45
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1178.44
• euro little changed at $1.1955
• WTI crude +2.1% at $64.53/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Talks between top Senate Democrats and the Trump administration to avert a government shutdown have moved closer to Democrats’ demands, though no deal has been reached yet, a person familiar said. Talks included restrictions on ICE agents. BBG
• US Senate Majority Leader Thune sees a possibility to avoid a shutdown by week’s end after Senate Minority Leader Schumer lays out Democrats’ demands on ICE: CNN
• President Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers. RTRS
• Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon may invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI’s new funding round. The Information
• Nvidia Corp. hasn’t yet received any orders from Chinese customers for its H200 AI chips as Beijing is still deciding whether to allow imports of the US firm’s components, according to Jensen Huang. BBG
• Cuba only has enough oil to last 15-20 days at current levels of demand and domestic production after its sole supplier Mexico appeared to cancel a shipment while the US blocked deliveries from Venezuela. FT
• Chairman of a US House of Representatives committee said in a letter that NVIDIA (NVDA) helped DeepSeek hone AI models later used in China’s military: Reuters.
• Gold and silver hit new records, lifting commodities as a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions fueled demand. Copper surged on speculative trading in China. Brent hit $70 a barrel after Donald Trump renewed threats against Iran. BBG
• Shares in Chinese property developers surge on news that China has done away with borrowing limits on property developers known as its “three red lines” policy, an apparent end to rules that triggered a debt crisis which continues to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy. RTRS
• Indonesia’s stock market suffered its worst two-day rout since 1998, triggered by MSCI’s warning of a possible market downgrade due to transparency concerns. Regulators stepped in and announced plans to double the minimum free-float requirements. BBG
• Sweden’s central bank held its key rate at a three-year low of 1.75%, as expected, and stuck with its forecast for no change until next year. BBG
• Regional banks are on track to outperform the S&P 500 for a third month, the longest streak since 2022. With valuation multiples still below their long-term average and 10% of an S&P gauge set to disclose results in the next two days, the door is open to more gains if profits come in strong.
   

Notable earnings

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.50 (exp. 0.45), Revenue 24.9bln (exp. 24.77bln). Gross margin 20.1% (exp. 17.1%). Operating income 1.41bln (exp. 1.32bln). Free cash flow 1.42bln (exp. 1.59bln). In Q1 of this year, we plan to unveil the Gen 3 version of Optimus. Plan to begin megapack 3 and megablock production at megafactory Houston in 2026. On Jan 16, agreed to invest ~2B to acquire shares of Series E Preferred stock of xAI. Shares +3% pre-market
• Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 5.16 (exp. 3.92), Revenue 81.3bln (exp. 80.28bln). said net gains from OpenAI investments totaled USD 7.6bln, which resulted in an increase in diluted earnings per share of USD 1.02/shr. Operating income 38.3bln (exp. 32.9bln). SEGMENTS:. Q2 Azure and other Cloud services revenue increased 39% (exp. 38.8%). Productivity and Business +16% at USD 34.1bln (exp. 33.5bln). More Personal Computing: USD 14.3bln (exp. 14.33bln). Cloud revenue +26% to USD 51.5bln. Intelligent cloud revenue USD 32.9bln. Commercial RPO +110% to USD 625bln. Shares -6.4% pre-market
• Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q4 2025 (USD) EPS 8.88 (exp. 8.19), Revenue 59.9bln (exp. 58.38bln). Sees Q1 rev. USD 53.5bln-56.5bln (exp. 51.3bln). Sees 2026 capex USD 115bln-135bln (exp. 110.6bln). Shares +7.9% pre-market
• International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Q4 (USD) Adj. EPS 4.52 (exp. 4.33), Revenue 19.7bln (exp. 19.21bln). Sees FY constant currency rev. growth of over 5%. Sees FY2026 revenue USD 70.14bln (exp. 70.16bln). Sees FY free cash flow to increase by about USD 1bln. Shares +8.2% pre-market
• SAP (SAP GY) Q4 2025 (EUR): Adj. oper. profit 2.83bln (exp. 2.75bln), Revenue 9.68bln (exp. 9.74bln), Cloud Revenue 5.61bln (exp. 5.64bln), Cloud/Software Revenue 8.62bln (exp. 8.68bln); announced up to EUR 10bln buyback, to start Feb 2026. Shares -14%

Trade/Tariffs

• China’s MOFCOM spokesperson, when asked about a potential round of US-China trade talks, said China is willing to work with the US side to jointly uphold and implement the important consensus of the two heads of state, Global Times reported.
• Chinese President Xi said they are willing to consider implementing a unilateral visa-free system for British nationals

Central Banks

• Riksbank leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected; reiterates that the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come, in line with the forecast in December.
• BoK said uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy is likely to persist and it reiterated it will closely monitor financial markets.
• HKMA maintains its base rate at 4.00%, as expected.
• Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the prevailing rate of appreciation of the SGD NEER policy band, as well as made no change to the width and level the band is centred, as expected. said:. Output gap will be positive for the year as a whole. Growth this year is expected to remain resilient. Expects 2026 GDP growth to ease Y/Y.
• Brazilian BCB Policy Announcement 15% vs. Exp. 15.00% (Prev. 15.00%); said it will start cutting rates next meeting.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with sentiment in the region clouded following a lack of fireworks at the FOMC, where the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, while top- and bottom-line earnings beats from the likes of Meta, Microsoft and Tesla also failed to spur the broader risk appetite. ASX 200 marginally declined amid underperformance in telecoms and miners, while a surge in exports and import prices added to the inflationary risks and the case for an RBA rate hike next week. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses amid currency-related headwinds and earnings results. KOSPI saw two-way price action amid fluctuations in tech heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix despite both companies posting stellar earnings results. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action relatively flat amid a lack of fresh pertinent macro catalysts for China, although property names were supported after reports that several developers are no longer required to submit the monthly “three red lines” indicators, which are debt metrics introduced in 2021 to curb builders’ financial leverage.

Top Asian News

• India’s Economic Survey has FY27 growth in a 6.8-7.2% range. Weaker INR causes investors to pause.
• China market liquidity will remain ample in February, according to analysts cited by China Securities Times.
• Google (GOOG) took action against a Chinese company linked to a massive cyber weapon.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are broadly firmer, but with clear underperformance in the DAX 40 (-1.2%), which has been dragged down by post-earnings losses in SAP (-14%). The software giant disappointed on cloud revenue and poor cloud backlog metrics. European sectors are mixed; Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, boosted by continued strength in underlying metals prices and following Glencore (+3%) and Antofagasta (+6%) releasing their FY26 copper production guidance, with both companies indicating strong production throughout the year. Among underperformers, Chemicals has been pressured by Givaudan (-6%) post-earnings, followed closely by Tech, dragged lower by losses in SAP.

Top European News

• Germany’s Chancellor Merz said they are now seeing the first signs of recovery in the German economy.
• French Finance Minister Lescure said recent FX moves reflect fundamentals.
• Chinese President Xi said to UK PM Starmer that the UK-China relationship in recent years had seen “twists and turns that did not serve the interests of our countries”. said:. China stands ready to develop with the UK a long-term and consistent strategic partnership . More dialogue between the UK and China was “imperative”.

FX

• DXY resides in a current 96.01–96.35 range, well within yesterday’s 95.859–96.787 parameter, with little movement seen following the FOMC decision and press conference yesterday. There was a lack of major surprises or fireworks from the meeting and presser, although Powell noted that rates are at the higher end of the neutral range, and that if the tariff effect on goods pricing is seen to peak this year, it would signal to the Fed that it can loosen policy. Looking ahead stateside, US initial jobless claims for the week of 24 January are expected at 205k (prev. 200k), while continuing claims (week of 17 January, coinciding with the BLS’ traditional survey window for the January jobs report) are seen at 1.86mln (prev. 1.849mln). The Chicago Fed’s Labour Market Indicators are also due today. Final Q3 unit labour costs data are also scheduled, alongside US trade data for November and factory orders for November.
• EUR/USD remains sub-1.2000 after finding some resistance at 1.1996 overnight, while still remaining within yesterday’s 1.1896–1.2045 range. There has been little of note for the EUR as participants gear up for next week’s ECB meeting, with some focus on Governing Council commentary. Aside from that, price action this morning has been largely USD-driven. GBP/USD found resistance near yesterday’s high (1.3846) before waning, with the pair remaining within yesterday’s parameter.
• USD/JPY is softer and back below its 100-DMA (153.71), trading within a 152.76–153.46 band, with price action largely in tandem with the USD in the absence of fresh macro drivers. Traders will be keeping an eye on the geopolitical landscape amid further punchy rhetoric from both Iran and the US. Domestically, a Nikkei poll showed that Japanese PM Takaichi’s party is expected to gain a Lower House majority.
• Antipodeans outperform, with AUD outpacing peers as the commodity-linked currency benefits from the surge in spot gold and copper prices, despite a lack of obvious drivers for the magnitude of gains seen. Data from Australia also showed firmer export and import prices.

Fixed Income

• USTs are, once again, near enough flat, holding off lows in the 111-16+ to 111-26 range. Post-FOMC updates have been light. In brief, the Fed held policy in a decision that saw two dovish dissenters (Miran and Waller), while the statement outlined a more optimistic outlook on the economy and labour market. Overall, the statement and presser left the Fed narrative largely unchanged, although the omission of the line referring to “downside risks to employment” lent a slight hawkish tint to the statement—a point reflected at the time in upside pressure at the short end of the yield curve. This morning, yields are bid across the curve, which is marginally steeper, with the 10yr back above 4.25%, though still shy of last week’s JGB-induced 4.31% YTD peak.
• EGBs were flat this morning, but have gradually edged higher to a peak around the 128.13 area, with gains of up to 10 ticks. Earnings are once again dominating the European newsflow, with the DAX 40 underperforming on account of SAP, though Bunds themselves do not appear to be reacting.
• Gilts gapped lower by just over 10 ticks before slipping to a 90.48 trough, catching up with the modest pressure seen in peers overnight. In the UK, the PM’s meeting with Chinese President Xi generated mixed commentary. A 2028 tender auction attracted strong demand, but had little impact on UK paper.
• Italy sold EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 6-6.5bln 2.85% 2031, 3.45% 2036 BTP & EUR 2.0bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 1.468% 2035 CCTeu.
• UK sold GBP 1.25bln 0.125% 2028 Gilt auction via Tender: b/c 3.77x (prev. 3.84x), average yield 3.443% (prev. 3.783%).

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have steadily moved higher and reached new four-month highs, with Brent Apr’26 climbing above USD 69/bbl as the probability of a US strike on Iran rises. CNN reported late on Wednesday, citing sources, that US President Trump is considering a new large-scale attack on Iran due to a lack of progress on a nuclear deal. More recently, Kpler’s Bakr reported that Trump is not looking for a war, but instead wants a diplomatic win or an “organic” internal uprising.
• Worries over oil and gas production due to the Arctic storm have subsided for now, with Henry Hub futures consolidating below USD 4/MMBtu after peaking at USD 7.43/MMBtu earlier in the week.
• Precious metals continue their surge higher, with spot XAU topping out just shy of USD 5,600/oz, aided by a weaker dollar following the FOMC policy announcement. Alongside gold, spot silver also peaked at a new ATH of USD 120.43/oz but is currently underperforming the yellow metal. This runs contrary to recent trends, where spot silver has typically led gains. UBS notes that reduced inflows into ETFs and net speculative futures positioning on the US COMEX exchange hint at a possible end to the rally in XAG.
• Copper prices surged at the start of Asia-Pac trade, with 3M LME copper breaking its prior ATH of USD 13.41k/t to reach a new peak of USD 14.12k/t. Despite the lack of a clear near-term driver, expectations for stronger US growth and increased build-out of AI infrastructure remain key supports for the red metal. This move also comes ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday, prompting the usual front-loading of copper and other metals ahead of the festive period.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said increased Venezuelan crude oil supply means lower fuel prices and proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan oil will return to Venezuelans.
• US is handing over a seized oil tanker to Venezuela, according to US officials.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Kremlin spokesperson Peskov does not comment on reported of a energy infrastructure ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia’s Kremlin said they’re still waiting for the US response on Putin’s offer to extend limits in expiring nuclear treaty.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Kpler’s Bakr, on Iran, writes “What I’m hearing: Trump isn’t looking for war. He wants a diplomatic win, or an “organic” internal uprising that forces change from within.”.
• Sources from Arab TV report that disputes are still ongoing between Egypt and Israel regarding the number of people crossing through the Rafah in both direction on a daily basis.
• EU’s top diplomat said the EU will likely agree on placing sanctions on Iran’s IRGC, AP’s Gambrell reported.
• Iran’s representative to the UN said Iran informs the Council it faces a clear US threat to use force against it, while the Iranian envoy said Washington will bear responsibility for any uncontrolled consequences resulting from any acts of aggression.
• CNN sources say US President Trump is considering a new large-scale strike on Iran as no progress has been made in nuclear talks, although he has not yet made a final decision on a new major military strike against Iran. Trump’s military options include airstrikes and targeting of Iranian leaders and security officials.
• BofA card spending, week to January 24th: +6.6% Y/Y (prev. 4.6% Y/Y). Spending growth grew in groceries and general merchandise, indicative of stockpiling before the Winter storm.
• Turkey said it has foiled an Iranian intelligence plot at US’ Incirlik base.

Geopolitics: Others

• Sources from Arab TV report that disputes are still ongoing between Egypt and Israel regarding the number of people crossing through the Rafah in both direction on a daily basis.
• Denmark’s Foreign Minister after his meeting in Washington said he’s more optimistic on Greenland compared to a week ago. Plan to hold further meetings. Back on track with the US on Greenland.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan 24 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 205k, prior 200k
• 8:30 am: United States Jan 17 Continuing Claims, est. 1850k, prior 1849k
• 8:30 am: United States Nov Trade Balance, est. -44b, prior -29.4b
• 10:00 am: United States Nov Factory Orders, est. 1.6%, prior -1.3%
• 10:00 am: United States Nov F Durable Goods Orders, prior 5.3%
• 10:00 am: United States Nov F Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.5%
• 10:00 am: United States Nov F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was a rare occasion when both the latest Fed decision and a slew of Mag-7 results failed to materially move markets, with a pause by the FOMC leaving bonds and equities little changed while mixed results from Microsoft and Meta have left equity futures with marginal gains overnight. Precious metals continued to deliver the most eye-catching moves, with gold (+4.86%) yesterday posting its best day since the early weeks of the Covid pandemic and moving up another 2.41% overnight and above $5,500/oz as I type. Elsewhere Polymarket’s probability of a US government shutdown has sunk to 44% in the last couple of hours from a peak of 80% yesterday as the NYT has reported overnight that a deal between Democrats and Republican has been potentially sketched out. We will wait to see how that develops.

Starting with the Fed, and as widely expected the FOMC kept rates on hold at 3.50-3.75%. Governors Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a 25bps cut but there was “broad support” for keeping rates steady according to Chair Powell, who said the Committee was “well positioned” after delivering 75bps of rate cuts in late 2025. The pause came amid a more upbeat tone on the economy, with the statement noting the “solid pace” of economic activity and “some signs of stabilization” in the unemployment rate. Powell emphasised the “clear improvement” in the economic outlook since the last meeting, but any hawkish read-across was offset by a more sanguine tone on inflation. The Chair suggested that services disinflation was continuing, with most of the current inflation overshoot coming due to tariffs, the effect of which is expected to peak around the “middle quarters of the year”.

Powell offered little near-term guidance but suggested the next move is likely to be a cut, noting that “it isn’t anybody’s base case right now the next move will be a rate hike”. Our economists see the Powell-led Fed as having now delivered its last rate cut and, more broadly, they think risks around their expectation of one rate cut this year in September have become more balanced. See their full reaction here. Away from policy, Powell mostly deflected questions on the Lisa Cook hearing and whether he’d stay on as Governor after his term ends in May, while reiterating that he was “strongly committed to (Fed independence) and so are my colleagues”.

Bonds and equities saw muted post-FOMC reactions. Both 2yr (-0.2bps at 3.57%) and 10yr (-0.1bps at 4.24%) Treasury yields were little changed by the close, having been just over a basis point higher pre-FOMC. 10yr and 30yr US yields are +2.4bps and +3.2bps higher this morning though. Fed funds futures continue to price 47bps of easing by December (+0.2bps on the day). The S&P 500 (-0.01%) was also essentially unchanged at 6,978, after reaching the 7,000 level intra-day for the first time earlier in the session. The NASDAQ (+0.02%) and the Mag-7 (+0.04%) were steady as well, while the small cap Russell 2000 (-0.49%) retreated.

After the market close, we then received a mixed set of Mag-7 releases from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla. Microsoft’s shares slumped by around -6% after-hours despite a modest earnings beat, as the software giant only just met elevated cloud revenue growth expectations (at +38%) and saw higher-than-expected quarterly CAPEX outlays ($37.5bn vs $36.2bn est.). By contrast, Meta surged by more than +6% after-hours as it projected stronger ad-driven sales for the current quarter ($53.5-$56.5bn vs $51.3bn est.) and guided for stronger CAPEX in 2026 as a whole ($115-135bn vs $110.6bn est.). Meanwhile, Tesla’s shares gained about +2% in post-market trading after delivering a decent earnings beat and laying out plans to invest $20bn this year to streamline its EV lineup and expand work on robotics and AI. Those results have largely offset each other as far as equity futures are concerned with those tied to the S&P 500 (+0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.26%) trading slightly higher. We next have Apple reporting after the close today.  While we won’t get Nvidia’s earnings until late-February, multiple outlets reported that Beijing had approved purchases of its H200 chips for several Chinese companies including Alibaba. So that helped boost Nvidia’s share price, which rose +1.59%.

Before the Fed decision, the dollar also began to stabilise after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated the “strong dollar policy” a day after Trump had seemed more relaxed about its direction. That came in a CNBC appearance, where he said that the US “always has a strong dollar policy, but a strong dollar policy means setting the right fundamentals”. He also commented that the US was “absolutely not” intervening in FX markets, which helped drive a dollar rebound against several other currencies. The dollar did give up some of its rebound later on, in part after Powell said that questions on the recent weakening in the dollar were in the purview of the Treasury not the Fed. Still, the euro was down -0.72% to $1.1954 by the close, with the Japanese yen weakening -0.78% to 153.41 per dollar. Both are back up around a third of a percent higher this morning.

Otherwise, oil prices saw further gains after Trump posted that a “massive Armada” was heading to Iran, and that time was “running out” for Iran to make a deal with the US. Moreover, he said the next US attack would be “far worse” than the strikes last June if Iran did not reach a deal. In response, Iran’s country mission to the UN said that it was ready to correspond with the US, but “if pushed” it would “defend itself and respond like never before.” And yesterday evening, CNN reported that Trump is considering a major strike on Iran but had not yet made a final decision. So fears of tensions escalating between the two countries caused oil prices to rise, with Brent (+1.23%) up to its highest since late-September and trading another +1.62% higher this morning at $69.51/bbl. There were even stronger gains for precious metals, with gold (+4.86%) posting its best day since March 2020 and having now seen its largest 8-day gain since the GFC. Gold is up another +2.41% to $5,550/oz as I type. Meanwhile, silver (+4.12%) also closed at a new high of $116.70/oz and is up just over a percent in Asia.

In Europe, there was a risk off tone yesterday, alongside sovereign bonds rallying as speculation mounted about a potential ECB rate cut this year. That followed comments before the open from the ECB’s Kocher, who said they might have to react if the euro kept appreciating, and overnight index swaps are now pricing in a 26% chance of a rate cut by the September meeting, from 16% before the comments. That helped to push yields lower across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps), OATs (-0.9bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) all falling back. Moreover, front-end yields led the declines as investors priced in a growing chance of a rate cut, with the 2yr German yield down -2.2bps.
Elsewhere in Europe, equities largely reversed their gains from the first two days of the week, with the STOXX 600 down -0.75%. Luxury goods were a big underperformer, led by a steep fall in LVMH (-7.89%) after the company’s earnings disappointed the previous evening, which meant the CAC 40 (-1.06%) saw one of the biggest falls.

Finally, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% yesterday, as expected. Governor Macklem kept their options open, saying that “elevated uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate.” But markets are still pricing in a rate hike as most likely by year-end, which is priced in as a 42% probability.

In Asia, the KOSPI (+1.32%) is leading the way again, followed by the Hang Seng (+0.57%) and the Nikkei (+0.31%). Other markets are fairly close to flat.

To the day ahead, data releases include the US November trade balance, factory orders and initial jobless claims, Italy’s November industrial sales, the Euro Area’s January economic confidence. Central bank events include the Riksbank decision, and the ECB’s Cipollone will be speaking today. Finally, Apple, Visa, Mastercard and Blackstone are among those reporting today.

Via Middle East Eye

Abu Aicha patrols the desert in northeastern Syria by car and on foot, an armed man permanently at his side. Around him stretches an apocalyptic landscape: rusted pipelines, shredded buildings, scorched earth and the traces of explosions.

“This is more important to protect than a bank. Oil is what brings money into a bank,” Abu Aicha tells Middle East Eye on 23 January. A former head of banking security in Deir Ezzor, Abu Aicha has been urgently reassigned to secure al-Omar, Syria’s largest oilfield – recently reclaimed by Syrian government forces after nearly a decade under Kurdish-led control.

His words reflect the strategic value long attached to al-Omar, a site that has repeatedly funded competing authorities throughout Syria’s war. For more than 10 years, al-Omar, located in the Deir Ezzor province east of the Euphrates River, formed a part of the economic backbone of northeastern Syria.

It was first seized by armed opposition groups, then transformed into a pillar of the Islamic State’s war economy, before falling under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in 2017.

It even supplied oil back to Damascus across front lines. Today, it is once again under state control – a battlefield where oil has repeatedly reshaped Syria’s balance of power.

On 18 January, under pressure from advancing government troops, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi signed an agreement with Damascus that formally ended the Kurdish autonomous administration in the northeast and transferred control of oil and gas fields back to the Syrian state.

Fighting around al-Omar lasted nearly two hours the day before. Abu Taim, a soldier from the internal security forces who took part in the clashes, recalls the urgency of the operation.

“It was very important to take control of this place,” he says. “Before, we were forced to buy oil from them. These are resources that belong to the country. Now they benefit the whole country.”

Among the soldiers deployed that day, many were from the region itself – Syria’s Jazira. “I lived on the other side of the line,” says Omar, 23. “I felt my land had been colonised by the SDF. Everything was transported to Hasakah. Deir Ezzor suffered economically from losing access to its own resources.”

Another soldier, Mohamed Othman, 25, from Shahee in Deir Ezzor, sums up the moment: “It’s as if we were born again. It’s important because the resources belong to all of Syria, not just one group.” For some, the return carried a deeply personal meaning. “I hadn’t been here in 14 years,” says Abu Soeb Achjel quietly.

Oil transport resumed just five days after the site was retaken. Abdel-Karim Haluch, a truck driver wearing a red and white turban, prepares to head west. “I’m happy to help the country,” he says.

Dozens of trucks like his – each carrying up to 40,000 litres of crude oil – now travel daily from al-Omar toward refineries in Baniyas in the west and Homs in central Syria.

Yet securing the field remains a daily struggle. Al-Omar spans a vast expanse of desert, where opportunistic looters still attempt to siphon oil.

Abu Aicha gestures toward the sand, where motorcycle tracks cut across the site. “Each motorcycle can take up to 300 litres in five minutes,” he says, pointing to shallow pools of oil formed near damaged infrastructure. At night, patrols intensify. Vehicles suspected of theft are stopped, and sand barriers are erected around sensitive areas. “This is what preserves the future of the state,” Abu Aicha repeats.

Al-Omar today is a site held together by improvisation.Raed al-Sadoun, an engineer working on the field, describes the scale of destruction as overwhelming.

“The field requires complete rehabilitation – from the wells at the source to the destroyed secondary and main stations, all the way to the transfer points,” he explains. “Each well needs to be studied individually.”

The damage, he says, exceeds 90 percent. “We hope to reach more than 30,000 barrels per day from al-Omar alone,” he adds.

“But the timeline depends on who carries out the work. With foreign companies operating under international standards, it would take at least a year. “With local companies, everything depends on financing and equipment – and it could take even longer.” Artificial lifting systems remain largely inoperative, leaving only a handful of wells capable of natural production.

The last guy who was supposed to be on trial in Iraq became “President” of Syria.

We’ve seen this movie. https://t.co/fRbrVSt7qC

— Kevork Almassian (@KevorkAlmassian) January 24, 2026

Al-Omar’s importance goes far beyond symbolism. According to Benjamin Fève, an economist specializing in Syria at the consultancy Karam Shaar Advisory, oil revenues were decisive for the survival of Kurdish self-rule.

“In the first half of 2025, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria generated $542m in revenues,” Fève explains. Some $416m came from oil, accounting for nearly 77 percent of total revenues, he says. “These revenues financed military spending and public salaries, allowing the administration to function with around 220,000 employees and an armed force of roughly 85,000 fighters.”

Without oil rent, he adds, Kurdish autonomy would not have been financially viable – just as the Islamic State’s territorial project had once depended on oil revenues.

Today, Al-Omar remains a strategic asset for Damascus. “It is Syria’s largest oilfield, with recoverable reserves estimated at around 520 million barrels,” Fève says.

“Despite more than $1bn in damage, production was still around 14,000 barrels per day at the end of 2025. Its light crude is crucial because it is compatible with the Baniyas refinery.”

In the short term, Fève cautions, al-Omar will not dramatically boost Syria’s budget. “But in the medium term, it is the key asset to reduce imports and partially relaunch national production,” he says.

For Fève, the battle for northeastern Syria’s oilfields has been a structuring factor of the conflict. “Oil did not trigger the Syrian conflict, but it financed its prolongation,” he says. “Control over oilfields allowed armed actors to capture hundreds of millions of dollars annually and build rival systems of governance.”

That dynamic, he argues, made the recapture of al-Omar and other fields like Conoco, a major gas installation in Deir Ezzor province, economically decisive for Damascus in early 2026.

As dusk settles over the desert, trucks continue to roll westward, soldiers tighten their patrols, and engineers work amid ruins. Even in devastation, al-Omar remains a strategic prize.

The European Union may be on the verge of taking a step it has long avoided: formally branding Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization. This as France and Spain, previously the bloc’s vocal key holdouts, abruptly signaled a change of heart.

Paris and Madrid’s reversal injects new momentum into what has so far been a largely symbolic but politically explosive move, one Brussels has repeatedly delayed despite mounting pressure. The timing of this impending potential change could signal that Europe is collectively ready to sign off on President Trump’s potential new military attacks on the Islamic Republic. It will make it ‘legally’ easier to wage war.

Europe has long been more restrained when it comes to US military actions abroad, but the Jan.3rd attack on Venezuela and forced removal of longtime President Maduro resulted in a muted EU response, which was widely interpreted as quiet approval. So for the EU, its leaders might be fine with Tehran being targeted next.

On Wednesday, just one day before EU foreign ministers are scheduled to convene in Brussels to debate the issue, the Elysée announced its change in thinking in the following:

“France supports the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the European list of terrorist organizations.“

The IRGC stands accused by the West of directing Iran’s crackdown of domestic unrest, after economic-driven protests took over town and city streets this month. 

Thousands died, but Iran officials have pointed to armed saboteurs being mixed in among the peaceful demonstrators, leading to mayhem and a high death toll.

The United States, Canada, and Australia have already blacklisted the IRGC, while Germany and the Netherlands have for years pressed the EU to follow suit. Italy has also shifted its position earlier this week related to the recent protests.

Importantly, the US had branded Maduro as head of a ‘terrorist organization’ (the so-called Cartel of the Suns, which had a dubious existence) just before launching regime change action against him, resulting in him facing federal charges in New York. 

The IRGC being branded as such in Europe would also aid in Washington’s case for war against Iran, given the organization reports directly to the Ayatollah, and is effectively the most important military-security group at the top of the command chain.

Via Remix News,

Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities have appealed to Interpol to issue an international warrant against Ukrainian-Israeli Timur Mindics and his business partner Alexander Zuckerman, both considered fugitives from justice and both reported to hold Israeli citizenship.

The corruption scandal centers on bundles of money, a toilet made of gold, and threads leading to the Ukrainian president.

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) have officially submitted to Interpol the documents aimed at launching the international arrest of both Mindics and Zuckerman. The announcement was made by Oleksandr Klimenko, head of SAPO, wrote Ukrainian outlet Strana Today.

Mindics is currently in Israel, which he reportedly fled to an hour before anti-corruption officers raided his apartment, leading to suspicion someone in the government tipped him off that the raid was coming.

He is being tried in absentia for corruption crimes in the energy sector. The entrepreneur, who has a long history with Zelensky and played a key role in his rise to power, previously claimed that he was scapegoated in the scandal, while Zuckerman also denies the allegations.

“The case is particularly sensitive, as Mindich had close ties with President Volodymyr Zelensky for many years,” writes Starna Today.

During the house search, Ukrainian investigators seized bundles of cash from the fugitive businessman and also found a golden toilet in his home. Zelensky is reported to have celebrated his birthday in this apartment during the coronavirus pandemic.

“A golden toilet is in one of the bathrooms of the apartment of Zelensky’s business partner Timur Mindich, where, according to media reports, NABU wiretapped the president himself. This was reported by MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, who showed a photo, as he claims, from this apartment.… pic.twitter.com/LYtCFKlTcW

— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) July 30, 2025

The investigation focuses on abuses surrounding state and semi-state energy companies. According to the authorities, inadequate procurement procedures, embezzled money, parallel management structures and “shadow” accounting were behind it.

The damage caused is estimated at about $100 million and led to 70 properties being searched and numerous arrests made. Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) has conducted searches at the home of the driver of Andriy Yermak, the notorious figure in the Ukrainian corruption scandal known as “Ali Baba.” Another friend of Zelensky’s, former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov, was remanded into custody. Justice Minister German Galushchenko was also suspended after his house was searched. He had been serving as energy minister at the time of the events.

According to NABU, the group’s goal was to gain illegal benefits from Energoatom’s contractual partners and control personnel decisions, procurement and financial flows through informal contacts.

According to Die Welt newspaper, several top leaders, active and former politicians are involved in the case, as well as actors who can be linked to Moscow.

Mindics’ escape triggered separate speculations. According to the German newspaper, he was seen in Kyiv a day before the house search, which may indicate that he was warned in time. Since it would have been difficult to get out of the country by car, it was also suggested that he left Ukraine by helicopter, which “in wartime conditions would only have been possible with official permission.”

Read more here…

Fire crews extinguished a fire that broke out early Wednesday at the former Volkswagen plant in Russia’s Kaluga region, now repurposed as part of Moscow’s post-sanctions auto ecosystem.

There’s been little in the way of a cause mentioned in international reports, amid an investigation, though skeptical headline consumers will note there’s been a tit-for-tat covert sabotage campaign long underway between Russia and Ukraine-Europe in the context of the war, now about to enter its fifth year.

According to Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry, the blaze erupted at a foam recycling workshop inside the Tenet automobile facility, which currently assembles Chinese-made vehicles, and no casualties were reported.

It remains that automaking is an industry prone to accidents and fires, for which typically there are sophisticated and high-tech fire alarm systems at the ready.

It’s likely to result in a temporary shutdown of operations. The sprawling plant is a symbol of Russia’s pivot away from Western manufacturers, amid the US-EU sanctions campaign, and efforts to isolate the Russian economy globally.

Tenet executives recently unveiled plans to seize at least 10% of Russia’s projected 1.4-million-vehicle market, also at a moment most Western automakers are completely absent from Russia, as international firms made an exit over the several years of Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

Chinese firms have sought to fill the vacuum, amid several bilateral deals between Moscow and Beijing, longtime ‘frenemies’ which are improving relations as both have come under Washington’s punitive actions.

According to an early 2025 report:

The ex-Volkswagen auto-manufacturing plant at Kaluga is launching auto manufacturing of cars under Russia’s Tenet brand, according to regional governor Vladislav Shapsha. Volkswagen exited the Russian market in 2023, selling the business to their Russian dealership, Avilon, who paid an estimated US$135 million for VW’s Russian business. Volkswagen reportedly invested more than US$800 million to build the Kaluga plant.

Avilon subsidiary AGR Holding LLC and China’s Defetoo, have signed a joint venture technological partnership to manufacture Tenet branded cars. Defetoo are part of China’s Chery auto manufacturer. The Tenet vehicles will be reworked, Russian versions of the Chinese brand. 

Ukrainian and Russian social media have featured images of what’s clearly a large inferno, but Western headlines have been slow to pick up on the emergency:

A large fire is ongoing at the former Volkswagen plant in Russia’s Kaluga region.

The plant currently assembles Chinese Chery models locally and markets them under the Tenet label. pic.twitter.com/8SzzZEi8TE

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 28, 2026

In cases of industrial or military site fires or explosions inside Russia, Kremlin authorities are not always quick to blame Ukraine or the West – given they have an interest in showing the domestic populace that the state and its security are firmly in control of the situation. Still, a lot of incidents have been happening of late, sometimes as a result of Ukrainian long-range drones.

Meanwhile in Ukraine, civilian as well as military infrastructure continues to get hammered, resulting in tragedies…

🇺🇦🇷🇺 A Ukrainian soldier pulls a baby to safety from a train in Kharkiv after Russian suicide drones hit it, killing 3 people.

Source: @visegrad24 pic.twitter.com/1SEZSbX2St

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) January 28, 2026

Via Remix News,

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán backed Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Alice Weidel, who is demanding compensation from Ukraine for the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline and tens of billions of euros in German financial support.

Orbán responded to the German politician’s statement with a short but clear sentence on X, writing, “Alice Weidel is right!”

.@Alice_Weidel is right! https://t.co/qX69UicBof

— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) January 26, 2026

The Hungarian prime minister also posted Weidel’s speech, where she stated:

“If this party comes to power, we will demand compensation for the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, as well as the return of about 70 billion euros in financial and military support provided to Kyiv.”

Germany has provided tens of billions to Ukraine, all during a time when the country is facing surging company bankruptcies, budget cuts, and even cities all on the verge of bankruptcy.

The enormous sums of money sent to Ukraine, especially in the light of massive corruption scandals facing the country, have led the AfD to be highly critical of Germany’s continued support. Now, the AfD considers recouping this money as essential.

In light of a number of arrests of Ukrainian operatives, who have been charged with sabotaging the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the alliance between Germany and Ukraine looks increasingly problematic.

“We will seek compensation. The Ukrainians and Zelensky have been paid by us to blow up our own pipeline. The country that has done this to us cannot be our friend, and this must be publicly acknowledged,” stated Weidel, emphasizing that Ukraine cannot be considered a friendly state.

As Weidel said, the recovery of tens of billions of euros in support and the restoration of Nord Stream are inevitable.

Weidel previously accused European leaders of double standards and believed that while Moscow faces serious accusations, similar criticism is not leveled against the United States.

In her opinion, Donald Trump’s policy resembles Vladimir Putin’s actions on several points, notably in relation to Greenland.

Read more here…

Various Turkish and Middle East sources are reporting that Iranian intelligence attempted to spy on the major US airbase at Incirlik, and that a cell of Iranian agents has been busted.

The report, originally in Turkey’s Sabah newspaper on Wednesday, said that Turkish intelligence and Istanbul police detained six people across five provinces. The report claims the cell was led by Iranian intelligence codenamed “Haji” and another codenamed “Doctor”.

A Turkish asset is alleged to have hired people to take photos and videos of the Incirlik Air Base in Adana, which has been jointly controlled by Ankara and Washington for decades, and which plays host to American tactical nuclear weapons as part of a broader NATO nuclear-sharing program.

Incirlik Air Base played a vital role in US and allied covert operations to oust Assad in Syria, and has over the past decade been featured in global headlines, especially connected with the CIA’s ‘Timber Sycamore’ regime change operation aimed at Damascus.

The Iranians were of course closely allied with Assad during the lengthy proxy war, and have since retreated from Syria, also as Lebanon’s Hezbollah has been removed from the country.

The region is on edge amid a US naval and air force build-up in the Gulf, and as President Trump threatens action against Tehran. If a major conflict were to break out, US officials fear that Iran could hit regional US bases in retaliation.

They have closely watched threats out of Tehran officials, including the latest from Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who warned earlier this month:

“In the event of an attack on Iran, both the occupied territories and all American military centres, bases, and ships in the region will be our legitimate targets,” Qalibaf said during a parliamentary session.

“We do not consider ourselves limited to responding after the act and will take action based on any objective signs of a threat,” he added.

Sabah reported that one among the some half-dozen people belonging to the alleged Iranian intelligence cell is an Iranian citizen. They’ve been detained by Istanbul Criminal Courts of Peace on charges of “obtaining confidential state information for political or military espionage purposes.”

Curious timing indeed…

Turkish intelligence reported the uncovering of an Iranian spy network that targeted the Incirlik air base, the largest US Air Force base in Turkey.
Is it today that the Turks decided to publish this?🤨 pic.twitter.com/GJrQQZrP3F

— Gennady Simanovsky (@GennadySimanovs) January 28, 2026

As for what specific intel or photographs they were able to capture, such details are undisclosed at this point. The story has since been picked up by The Washington Post and other US media.

The government of Turkey is actually against any potential new Washington regime change war in Iran. For one, it could unleash a wave of refugees, as far eastern Turkey actually borders the Islamic Republic. The two countries share a nearly 350-mile border, and have lately tried to keep relations stable, even amid Washington’s threatened action.

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The British Home Secretary unveiled plans in Parliament on Jan. 26 for a new National Police Service (NPS), which is modeled on the FBI and will take over the fight against terrorism and organized crime in the United Kingdom.

At the weekend, Shabana Mahmood described the NPS as a “British FBI” and said it would alleviate the burden on local police forces, allowing them to concentrate on issues such as shoplifting and street robbery.

The NPS will replace the National Crime Agency, which covers England and Wales, but it will also have a UK-wide role.

On Monday, the Home Office published a 106-page White Paper that sets out in detail the new police structure and how it would be supported by state-of-the-art technology.

The document says the government would invest 115 million pounds ($157 million) over the next three years “to enable the rapid and responsible adoption of AI and automation technologies by the police.”

A new National Centre for AI in Policing, known as Police.AI, would be created.

There are also plans to roll out facial recognition cameras nationwide to help police catch wanted criminals on watchlists.

The number of facial recognition camera vehicles would be increased from 10 to 50.

“A hundred years ago, fingerprinting was decried as curtailing our civil liberties, but today we could not imagine policing without it,” Mahmood said.

“I have no doubt that the same will prove true of facial recognition technology in the years to come.”

There is currently no dedicated statute governing police use of facial recognition in England and Wales.

Earlier this month, Eleanor “Nell” Watson, a leading researcher and adviser on artificial intelligence ethics and transparency, criticized the increased deployment of surveillance technology.

“The UK is constructing infrastructure for a surveillance society while telling itself it is merely catching criminals,” she told The Epoch Times via email.

Mahmood also announced plans to scrap the existing 43 police constabularies in England and Wales, which would be reorganized into a dozen regional forces.

“Policing is not broken, as some might have us believe,” she told the House of Commons on Monday, “Last year, the police made over three-quarters of a million arrests, five percent more than the year before.”

She said knife crime was down and murder rates in London were at their lowest recorded level.

‘Epidemic of Everyday Crime’

“However, across the country, things feel very different. Communities are facing an epidemic of everyday crime that all too often seems to go unpunished, and criminals know it,” Mahmood said. “Theft has risen by 72 percent since 2010, phone theft is up 58 percent.”

The current 43 police forces in England and Wales were set up in 1974, but Mahmood said the world has changed dramatically.

“Criminals are operating online and across borders with greater sophistication than ever before, be they drug smugglers, people traffickers or child sexual abusers,” Mahmood said.

“The world has changed dramatically since policing was last fundamentally reformed over 50 years ago. Policing remains the last great unreformed public service.”

There were plans to merge police forces 20 years ago, but the idea was dropped by the Labour government of then-Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Labour won a general election in Britain last year, and Mahmood was installed as home secretary, tasked with sorting out Britain’s police and prisons.

“Consolidating the current model will make the police more cost-efficient, giving the taxpayer more value for money, while also ensuring a less fragmented system that will better serve the public and make them safer,” the Home Office said in the paper.

Criticism of ‘Mega-Forces’

The opposition Conservatives’ shadow home secretary, Chris Philp, criticized the plan to reduce the number of police forces from 43 to 12 and said it would create forces that would be too big.

“Such huge forces will be remote from the communities they serve. Resources will be drawn away from villages and towns towards large cities,” Philp said.

He added that the Metropolitan Police, Britain’s largest police force, had the worst crime-solving rates.

“That goes to show that large scale does not automatically deliver better results, and therefore we will oppose the mandated merger of county forces into remote regional mega-forces,” Philp said.

“Over the weekend, the Home Secretary was trailing this proposal as a British FBI,” Scottish National Party (SNP) MP Pete Wishart said.

“While it might indeed be their FBI, British, it most definitely is not, as it applies only to England and Wales.”

“In Scotland, we are immensely proud of our culture and ethos of policing by consent and the fact that we have the lowest crime rates in the whole of the UK. The last thing we want is this creeping Americanization,” Wishart added and demanded to know what powers the NPS would have in Scotland.

Mahmood said NPS would cover the whole of the UK.

“In England and Wales, it will have full operational powers and will be able to carry out its law enforcement activities,” she said.

“But in Scotland and Northern Ireland, it will carry out operations only with the agreement of the legally designated authority.”

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

The United States has pulled its membership in the World Health Organization (WHO), and many other nations are rethinking their participation. Of course, this could change with some future administration. The institution itself is not going anywhere. This is why it is crucial to understand the case for why the United States needed to pull out and cut all funding.

Get out and stay out.

It’s also critically important that other nations join us and leave this organization. To top it all off, the WHO has become a pillar of duplicity even now.

Over the weekend, WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “While WHO recommended the use of masks, physical distancing and vaccines, WHO did not recommend governments to mandate the use of masks or vaccines and never recommended lockdowns.”

This claim is easily refuted.

The evidence that WHO backed lockdowns begins on Jan. 29, 2020, when Tedros praised the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping in particular to the skies for its “amazing” response to COVID-19, which included welding people inside their homes and arresting and likely killing people for disobeying the authorities.

Nothing like this had happened in the modern era in any country. The WHO was completely on board.

A few weeks following this celebratory news conference, the WHO organized a trip to Wuhan and several other cities in China. This junket involved the UK, EU, and the United States. This trip included Clifford Lane, a top aide to Dr. Anthony Fauci, and several other Americans. On the way back from this multi-city trip, they drafted the report that praised China’s response to the virus in terms that contradict every principle of public health.

This is before there were any lockdowns in the United States or the UK.

This Feb. 28, 2020, report, is still on the WHO website:

“Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action in the face of this common threat. At a community level this is reflected in the remarkable solidarity of provinces and cities in support of the most vulnerable populations and communities.”

It goes on:

“At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage and conviction. They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment measures—whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’ advisories or prohibitions on travel. Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline health care providers to top scientists, the Joint Mission was struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response.”

Or as WHO spokesman Dr. Bruce Aylward said following his Wuhan mission in February 2020, “Copy China’s response to Covid!” This exhortation was praised by the Chinese Communist Party. Incredibly, the WHO was so influential on the world that 194 nations followed the model and did exactly that. They issued stay-at-home orders and shut business, churches, and schools.

Not only did the WHO support lockdowns, it urged them on the entire world in the name of public health, as a method of following the Chinese plan. Indeed, this report was the basis of the lockdowns that came to the United States and UK. It provided the cover necessary for imposing this unprecedented violation of rights.

When the lockdowns next came to Northern Italy, the WHO celebrated those, too. A spokesman for the WHO and director of WHO Europe, Hans Kluge expressed his “full support for the measures adopted by Italy to address the novel coronavirus emergency and the World Health Organization’s willingness to offer every means of full cooperation!”

The lockdowns came to the United States and most nations in mid-March 2020. Already the disaster was unfolding all around us within a week or two. A month later, the WHO urged nations not to open up too soon. They sent out communications demanding universal track-and-trace policies with testing, full protective equipment, social distancing, and a massive propaganda campaign of fear and loathing.

In other words, while the WHO recognized that people were going crazy in lockdowns and would not stand much more of this, it refused to recognize the need for freedom but rather doubled down on tyranny, surveillance, and control as the right way to manage a virus.

A month later, the WHO warned against lifting lockdowns because this would only result in more infections and danger. It posted on social media: “Further guidance was published that outlines the key questions countries should ask prior to the lifting of lockdowns: Is the epidemic under control? Is the health system able to cope with a resurgence of cases that may arise after relaxing certain measures?”

Later that month, the WHO said lockdowns are actually wonderful because they address the problem of climate change. “The pandemic has given us a glimpse of what our world could look like if we took the bold steps that are needed to curb #ClimateChange and #AirPollution,” it quoted Tedros as saying, in a social media post.

By mid-summer, the WHO said that lockdowns were great but not enough, and that all government should be engaged in universal contract tracing to control the virus that everyone would get anyway.

By October 2020 and following the Great Barrington Declaration, the WHO once again endorsed lockdowns. “We recognize that at certain points, some countries have had no choice but to issue Stay-At-Home orders and other lockdown measures, to buy time,” the WHO posted, quoting Tedros, on Oct. 12, 2020.

This was not accidental messaging, but rather stated WHO policy throughout.

The moment that the vaccine was rolled out, following the November 2020 election, the WHO actually changed its definition of herd immunity to exclude the possibility of natural immunity. It previously said that herd immunity is reached through vaccination or exposure from infection. The WHO suddenly eliminated the second point and said that vaccines are the only path.

What this note at the World Health Organization did was delete what amounts to the entire million-year history of humankind in its delicate dance with pathogens. You could only gather from this that all of us are nothing but blank and unimprovable slates on which the pharmaceutical industry writes its signature.

In addition, the editorial change at WHO ignored and even wiped out a century of medical advances in virology, immunology, and epidemiology. It was thoroughly unscientific—shilling for the vaccine industry in exactly the way that the conspiracy theorists say that the WHO has been doing since the beginning.

By the time that the virus weakened to become no more dangerous than a cold, the WHO was still at it. “We’re concerned that a narrative has taken hold in some countries that because of the vaccine, and because of Omicron’s high transmissibility and lower severity, preventing transmission is no longer possible, and no longer necessary. Nothing could be further from the truth,” it stated.

This was worse than bad health and policy advice. The WHO allowed itself to be used as a handmaiden of totalitarian controls across the globe. Many nations had trusted this organization and followed advice. This was a disaster for health and for freedom. The United States simply cannot be a member of such an organization.

The WHO once served a valuable function, and those functions are still necessary. That said, each nation alone needs to embrace its own health sovereignty based on its own needs. There is, in short, no such thing as global or world health. This is why every nation should leave the WHO, which proved itself to be completely compromised by its celebration of the CCP and then its promotion of a dangerous product. It has no credibility remaining to its name.

The killing of ICU nurse Alex Pretti in Minneapolis last Saturday sparked national outrage – particularly when it comes to the 2nd Amendment and his right to carry while protesting. The incident resulted in two federal agents involved in the shooting being placed on leave, and the ouster of US border patrol chief Gregory Bovino as the face of the Trump administration’s mass deportation drive.

While the circumstances of his death are still under investigation – many believe this  gun went off after an agent took it off his body, spooking the shooter or shooters – he was known to federal authorities, and had suffered a broken rib during a violent confrontation with agents about a week before his death, CNN reported Tuesday.

Now, new footage appears to show Pretti armed and spitting at ICE agents before he smashes the taillights of their black SUV during a wild confrontation roughly a week before his death. 

The video, verified by the BBC, captures what appears to be Pretti screaming at federal agents while they were driving away during a Jan. 13 protest. As their SUV leaves, he kicks the taillight – breaking it, causing agents to exit the vehicle and tackle him to the ground. 

The agents continue to hold him down until he retreats and joins a crowd shouting at agents, as his gun is visibly tucked into the back of his pants. 

Watch:

Video of Peaceful Alex Pretti helping old ladies cross the street and doing volunteer work at the orphanage
OR
Swearing like a drunken sailor, spitting and destroying property pic.twitter.com/FChuxZ7Zwy

— Jim Hanson (@JimHansonDC) January 29, 2026

Prior to the protests, Pretti’s parents specifically warned him against engaging. 

“We had this discussion with him two weeks ago or so, you know, that go ahead and protest, but do not engage, do not do anything stupid, basically,” said Michael Pretti. “And he said he knows that. He knew that.”

While this changes nothing about an American’s 2nd Amendment rights, it certainly changes the narrative insofar as whether ICE agents identified Pretti prior to his death and considered him to have an elevated risk profile. 

So the “hero nurse” was actually a crazy psycho spitting on ICE agents and attacking their vehicle. Guy should have been charged for this. Might still be alive if he had been. He was looking for trouble for weeks. https://t.co/owRNNIvTRD

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) January 29, 2026

Well this aged incredibly poorly https://t.co/TBRPcVurG6

— Ian Miller (@ianmSC) January 28, 2026